Drunk Jays Fans

State of the Franchise Reax

2012-01-31T14:19:00.002-05:00

As promised, here's a look at the various reactions from the MSMers, and others who were there last night for the Jays' State of the Franchise event, which... in retrospect I probably could have just put into the Afternoon Snack post. I've got bigger and better things to do than get bogged down in shitting on Steve Buffery.

Getting Blanked

Drew absolutely nails it, eschewing the polite details and getting straight to the nut of the Jays' subtext: the insane value they place, perhaps by necessity, on control. The extension of that being that "the Toronto Blue Jays and many of their fans don’t see the methods for acquiring better players quite the same."

"Acquiring young players still in the arbitration or earlier stage of their career gives the Blue Jays freedom from the free market. Freedom from the whims of players wary of playing in the American League East on a sickly green carpet in Canada. When the Jays sit down with an arbitration eligible player and slide a contract that guarantees millions of dollars in exchange for their remaining arbitration years, their agent is not fielding calls from half a dozen other interested parties," he writes. "If the Jays front office is to be believed (and you are well within your rights to not believe) this is the only time they are free to pursue the players they truly think can build up their team to contention levels."

National Post

John Lott tries to gauge crowd reaction, talking to bewildered fans who want to see their own personal investment in season tickets matched by Rogers, who they feel are intent on keeping the purse strings tight, despite the attempts by Anthopoulos and Beeston to insist it's a philosophical decision to avoid free agent deals.

"Among those interviewed, younger fans tended toward frustration, while older fans — who experienced the glory years of 1992 and 1993 — seemed more satisfied with the Jays’ current course," he writes.

Tao of Stieb

The Tao wasn't able to be in attendance, but thanks to the webcast of the event-- inexplicably not broadcast on one of Rogers' many cable channels, despite shit all else happening in the world of sports last night-- and the twittering Twitter fingers of many of us in attendance, he's been able to make a range of keen observations.

"Give people a fencepost off in the distance, and they'll train their eyes on it to the exclusion of all else," he says of Paul Beeston's misstep last year, remarking that the club could conceivably spend up to $120-million. This time around Beeston left little room for the kind of outrage that his previous remark caused, except on the issue of putting in a grass field.

Also, quite rightly, to the fans who somehow thought otherwise, he warns, "don't expect your presence at the home opener against the White Sox in 1977 to legitimize your views on Colby Rasmus' contract." And by "views" one assumes he, of course, means "ridiculous views."

Toronto Sun

Speaking of ridiculous views, Steve Buffery, everybody!

"This is a team that hasn’t made it to the post-season since 1993 and has finished in fourth-place in the AL East the past four years in a row, yet the majority of fans — at least the season-ticket holders who showed up at the annual state of the franchise gathering Monday night — seem to be in some sort of happy daze," Buffery writes in a frothy, "where's my riot?" wankfest.

"Recent history has proven," he writes, about to blow his credibility, "that to make it into the post-season in the AL East on a consistent basis, money is a big factor — unless you’re the Tampa Bay Rays and you had the benefit of a lot of high draft picks after years of dwelling in the basement."

Oh, is that how that worked? Here are the ten top 10 draft picks the Rays have made in their history: Josh Hamilton (lost for nothing), Rocco Baldelli (derailed by injuries), Dewan Brazelton (washout), BJ Upton (solid contributor), Delmon Young (traded for Matt Garza, who was traded for prospects), Jeff Niemann (5.3 fWAR over three seasons), Wade Townsend (washout), Evan Longoria (best player in baseball), David Price (excellent pitcher), Tim Beckham (nothing yet). Obviously some cornerstone pieces, but it's a lazy joke and horribly unfair to the outstanding work of Andrew Friedman to suggest that Tampa tanked for ten years and is now reaping the benefits. And it's unfair to Alex Anthopoulos, who has demonstrated in his time as GM that he's taken many lessons from the success of the Rays.

If you want a toss off a nice horseshit line that will get fans frothing at the mouth the way you want 'em to, however, it works.

Toronto Star

Richard Griffin didn't quite wet his pants the way Buffery did, but he certainly went straight back to grinding his paper's most recent rhetorical axe. "Make no mistake," he writes. "the support for Anthopoulos has changed out on the streets. The honeymoon is not yet over, but you can see it from here. Although he will likely never reach the nadir of public disapproval that ended Ricciardi’s tenure, Alex’s star is no longer as high in the baseball sky as it was even a year ago. The easiest explanation? The off-season has been a disappointment."

Fortunately for us fans who actually like the way things are going, and who Griffin-- among many others-- seems surprised exist, the guy running the club isn't the one falling prey to such short-sightedness.

Globe and Mail

Jeff Blair of the Globe, in addition to giving us the nugget about Lawrie-for-Pineda actually being discussed, goes in a different direction, explaining that "in a not-very-subtle way, Beeston just told team owner Rogers Communications Inc. the time to test its resolve is just around the corner."

He also seems very intrigued by Beeston's assertion about a grass playing surface, which he believes would still leave the Rogers Centre open to holding other events, though it "would necessitate the Rogers Centre being configured as a full-time baseball stadium, Beeston said, which would not be good news for another building tenant, the Toronto Argonauts. The Argos’ lease expires after the 2012 CFL season."

Nuts and Bolts

Bob Elliott also wrote a State of the Franchise post for the Sun, dealing more with the nuts and bolts, the questions and answers from Beeston, Anthopoulos and Farrell. Gregor Chisholm of BlueJays.com and Mike Wilner of the Fan 590, both of whom I got a chance to speak with, which was a treat, also both mostly went deep into the nitty gritty of what Beeston and Anthopoulos were saying. Good reads, all.

Early-Afternoon Snack: Tuesday, January 31st, 2012

2012-01-31T12:47:00.002-05:00

Now it's time for all the stuff I don't figure on making full posts out of, with the spiffy graphic by Matt English (aka @mattomic). It's your Early-Afternoon Snack...

I saw this last night and probably should have written a full post about it then, but now that MLBTR and Getting Blanked are all over it, I don't think there's a whole lot of point. So, I'll simply pass along Jeff Blair's comment from the Globe and Mail that "several sources" say that the Mariners wanted Brett Lawrie for Michael Pineda, and the Jays balked at the suggestion. Not to diminish Blair's fine work in actually getting the information, but, well... obviously. Been figuring on that for a while now, no?

FanGraphs has a poll up, asking readers whether they'd rather have Montero or Lawrie. I think the answer is obvious, right?

"I'm not complaining whatsoever. It's a question that I was asked so I gave an honest answer. It's not in my interest to make it seem like I'm getting picked on," said Jose Bautista on TSN Radio yesterday, speaking to the comments he made at a banquet in the Dominican last week, where he said that he'd been tested for PEDs 16 times in the last two seasons, after being tested just twice previously. "I don't mind it; it's something that is not going to affect my focus and I'm not going to allow it to affect how I play my game. They are entitled to do whatever they want and test you as many times as they want. If I get picked to be tested a million times, that's fine with me."

There were a couple of Jays-related tidbits in this week's Ask BA with Jim Callis at Baseball America, who says that Yoenis Cespedes would be the Jays' top prospect, if they were to sign him. He's a top 10-15 prospect in baseball, while Travis d'Arnaud ranks 26 for BA. On the good side, he lists a bunch of Jays prospects who were outside their top 30, but would have been "prime candidates" for the White Sox list: first basemen Mike McDade and J.C. Hobson; shortstop Dawel Lugo; outfielders Eric Arce, Wilmer Becerra, Darin Mastroianni and Brad Glenn; lefthanders Griffin Murphy, Sean Nolin and Mitchell Taylor; and righties Manuel Cordoba, Jesus Tinoco, Joel Carreno and Trystan Magnuson.

Missed this last week, but I think it's worth revisiting: John Lott of the National Post talks about the Brandon Morrow extension and his new-found devotion to #jerkball.

MiLB.com has a Q&A with Travis d'Arnaud.

Lastly, there are a bunch of nice pissy-pants reaction from mainstream writers (and some good stuff) after last night's State of the Franchise event, which I think will be best rounded up in a separate post. So, stay tuned for that. I think.

The State of the French Fries

2012-01-30T21:31:00.009-05:00

I really feel like I owe a grand post on the Jays' annual State of the Franchise event, which took place tonight at Rogers Centre, if not to the world, at least to the members of the club's PR team, like Jay Stenhouse and Mal Romanin, who were kind enough to invite myself and a number of other bloggers to the affair-- even if I had a sneaking suspicion that part of the appeal was the potential for some free, positive coverage of the kind that the mainstream outlets haven't been so interested in providing lately. The club's staff was affable, accommodating, and amazingly didn't even toss us from the post-event media scrums with Alex Anthopoulos and Paul Beeston (though for a moment it was close, Eric), even if it meant allowing the definition of media to be blurred-enough that some of the unwashed masses were rather hilariously able to jump into the fray. Or, in the case of some video podcast nobody has ever fucking heard of, called Back In Blue, getting exclusive post-scrum interviews with the CEO and GM. Um... WTF?

Thing is, as much as I feel that an expansive post is warranted here, right now I can't be arsed to do one-- partly because, speaking of the line between media and non-media, I decided it only seemed right to firmly straddle it when a free beer was basically thrust into my hand approximately 30 seconds after arriving.

So, for now, let's skip the gory details, the winks at Richard Griffin,the polite conversation with the delightful John Lott, the terrifying guy in a fedora staring in the direction of Drew Fairservice and I for practically the entire Q&A. Let's get to what few nuggets Anthopoulos and Beeston offered to us, and maybe we'll revisit the rest later.

Here's what jumped out at me:

- In defending the club's actions on Prince Fielder-- a softball attempt to defuse the night's biggest PR hand grenade off the hop-- Paul Beeston, perhaps inadvertently threw Adam Lind under the bus, claiming that the club won't do a deal for more than five years on anyone, but if Fielder had been available for one, for three, for five years, "we would have been there." That's some confidence in your current first baseman, Beest. Not that he deserves confidence, mind you, but still.

- The question above was asked by the evening's emcee, Buck "Albert" Martinez. At one point I asked myself, would Alan Ashby have been up there happily lobbing softballs at the panel, acting as a blatant PR stooge? Something tells me no.

- At one point John Farrell referred to new reliever Darren Oliver's "left-handed specialty." I know he's a giant slab-of-meat of a man, but would it kill somebody to point out to Farrell what splits are?

- A couple of times during the Q&A Alex Anthopoulos emphasised athleticism as being part of the direction the club is headed in. A subtle way to undercut the fans who are livid over Fielder, or a genuine tactic? Judging by the profiles of the kinds of prospects he's acquired, I'll guess the latter.

- Speaking of livid fans, there were a few, but there was nothing of the kind of foment that I expected. In fact, the first fan who had the audacity to get negative was met with considerable restlessness from the section I was seated in-- but also clapping from what sounded like a majority of the crowd, once he had made his point.

- From the "getting specific without getting specific" file, Alex Anthopoulos answered a question about the Jays' inability to sign Carlos Beltran [Note: seriously?] by pointing out that some players don't want to play on turf, some don't want to DH, some don't want to change leagues. Makes total sense, and is exactly what you'd expect Beltran's reasons for passing to have been. Y'know, if AA had acknowledged the elephant in the room and mentioned the fact that some players actually want to win, too.

- Later in the evening the GM referred to the fact that there were two players this off-season who they offered more money or more years to, but who turned them down. Given the comments above, I'd bet hard that Beltran was one. The other... I dunno... Kuroda? Madson? Broxton?

- Later still, in the post-event scrum, Paul Beeston made one of the more interesting comments of the evening, following a series of questions about installing a grass field-- which he says could be done, if they don't have any non-baseball events in the building (in other words: it ain't happening), and he says has been under consideration for 10 years. Getting specific about the fact that some players don't want to come here and play on turf, Beeston claims that Carl Crawford balked at the possibility. Because, y'know, he was totally coming here otherwise. (I'm not seeing this one written elsewhere, but I assure you I didn't dream it.)

- On the other side of the player acquisition front, Anthopoulos got specifically non-specific about the trades that the club "missed out on" this winter, as some fucking buffoons would say. The club made their prospects available, he said in response to a particularly frustrated questioner, and they could have made trades, but other clubs wanted big league talent back-- read: Brett Lawrie-- and if they did it, "you'd be up there asking why we made the deal."

- Speaking to that point as clearly as he possibly could, Anthopoulos pointed out that if they had traded a Brett Lawrie for a pitcher, or Henderson Alvarez "and four guys behind him," they would have simply been filling one hole by creating another. How do fans not get this? What magical trades do they seriously think could have been made?

- One of the more interesting questions of the night came from a gentleman who said he had a bunch of young players from Venezuela playing in Niagara Falls, and that he'd tried to contact the Jays to come have a look at them, but got nowhere-- meanwhile, the Texas Rangers, while the World Series was on, no less, did heed his calls, and came up and signed five of them. Anthopoulos said he was unaware of the situation and was curious himself to find out how this particular ball was dropped-- if that, indeed, was the case.

- Getting more general, Paul Beeston said that MLB has been looking into spicing up interleague play by having NL rules in AL parks and vice versa, much to the delight of fans who could somehow possibly give a fuck.

- Asked about the Jays abysmal interleague record over the years-- despite the entire roster being turned over-- John Farrell pointed to the recent hiring of ex-catcher-of-the-future, Kevin Cash, who will do advance scouting on the Jays' interleague opponents, which will hopefully give them an edge they didn't have in recent years.

- Farrell also mentioned the possibility of using outfield platoons in 2012-- presumably in left, presumably with one of Thames and Snider, who will have an open competition this spring for the starting job, and Ben Francisco or Rajai Davis. If it's the latter, OK-- well, apart from the fact that Snider, should he be here, deserves every at-bat he can get-- but if they're thinking platooning a lefty with Francisco, um... again, someone please feel free to tell the manager about the existence of splits.

- On the good side of the ledger, Farrell shot down the traditional notion that a speedy player needs to lead-off, saying that they should put their guys with the best ability to get on base ahead of Jose Bautista in the lineup. Bea-utiful! It's just... um... then explain why the fuck we saw so much of Eric Thames in the two-hole last year?

- Farrell also spoke highly of prospect Drew Hutchison, and said that, especially at mid-season, he would have no reluctance to call him up to the bigs, if the need were to arise. Of course, if the need for Hutchison to come in like a white knight arises, things aren't going so good.

- At one point a female questioner asked about the ridiculous lack of ladies merchandise that isn't either too cute or pink or features only the cutest and most popular players. Um... awesome question. Beeston was quick to agree to just about everything on the night, but this one in particular seemed like a concern he wanted to look like he wanted to get to the bottom of.

- It didn't make it into my notes, but at one point during the Q&A, Alex Anthopoulos referred to coming into his job and having, among other challenges, players wanting to be traded, and later he said that Roy Halladay "demanded a trade." He said it more casually than it maybe looks in print, and I know we all know that Halladay made it clear that he wasn't going to re-sign and all that, but have we ever heard so explicitly that a trade was "demanded"? I didn't think so, but then again, I long ago stopped giving a shit about the franchise's second greatest ever pitcher.

- Speaking about his methods for player acquisition, and how they might change under the new CBA, Anthopoulos said that-- fucking obviously-- the plan wasn't to attempt to hoard draft picks in perpetuity, but that the way he loaded up on picks in his first three years was, in essence, a way to exploit the system.

- To that point, lastly, and perhaps most curiously, Anthopoulos said that going forward, even though it's going to be harder to hoard picks and to get players over slot, he wants to keep building the club's minor league core by always having a first and second round pick. Again: he always wants to have a first and second round pick. Unsaid, of course, is that to do so, he'd never be signing a free agent who'd require them to give up his pick to the team the player came from? I don't know if that's what he meant, but that's what he said-- fortunately for Alex is was wrapped in his typical Anthopoulspeak and not easy to catch.

Update: On the above, crossed-out last point I had to go and take a look at the new CBA, because, truth be told, I was never actually clear on how the pick forfeiting aspect of free agent compensation works. Turns out, Anthopoulos didn't say anything of note here, because, while clubs who sign free agents that received a $12-million qualifying offer (or whatever the number that year happens to be) do forfeit their first round pick to the team the player came from (unless they pick in the top 10, in which case they give up their second-rounder), those clubs get a pick back at the end of the first (or, if applicable, second) round-- essentially a sandwich pick, but one that is referred to as part of the preceding round. In other words, the fact that the Jays will always have a first- and second-rounder has nothing to do with any sort of planned unwillingness to sign high-end free agents.

Update the second: Oh beer. So delicious. So mind-fucky. Um... ya, so it turns out I misread a rather critical word in the section of the CBA pertaining to the Update above. It's not teams who sign players that received Type-A qualifying offers who get a pick back at the end of the first round, but the teams that lose those players. In the wording of the CBA, as it appears online, it's unclear whether this pick goes to the club who lost the player in addition to the pick forfeited by the signing club, or if the end-of-round pick is the only compensation. Either way, the team who signs such a player loses theirs, and once again the comment from Alex Anthopoulos that the Jays will always have their first- and second-round pick becomes potentially ominous. (Thanks to @fmblair for pointing out the error in the correction to the first error.)

So... there's that.

Layin' Down the Law (But Mostly the Parks and Goldstein)

2012-01-30T15:16:00.000-05:00

There's a whole lot more of Jason Parks-- whose name I keep mistakenly writing with an "e," for some reason-- and Kevin Goldstein than there is Keith Law in this post, but I'm too lazy to create a new graphic featuring the Baseball Prospectus pair, so... Law on the mountain it is.

Anywho, following the release of BP's top 11 Jays prospects list, Goldstein and Professor Parks had a nice bit of Jays discussion on their podcast, and Parkes answered a bunch of questions about them in his most recent chat.

Highlights are below, as well as all your Jays-related, and Jays-related-ish, tidbits from Keith Law's Thursday chat at ESPN.com.

The BP Podcast...

After Goldstein notes that the list of Jays three-star prospects goes 20 players deep, and Parks says that he thinks they've got the best system in the game, they get to the nitty gritty. Travis d'Arnaud is "an all-star waiting to happen, year after year after year," Parks says. "Best catching prospect in baseball," Goldstein adds. "I think he's going to be a monster," Parks says.

"Gose can fuckin' do everything," Parks tells us. "If you could go above 80, you could go above it for Gose," he says of his arm. The hit tool is obviously the issue that might hold him back. "In a perfect world he could be a lot like-- another former Blue Jay-- I think he could be a lot like Devon White," Goldstein adds. "A guy with power and some speed and he'd strike out 140 times every year."

"This guy knows how to pitch at such an advanced level at such a young age," Parks says of Justin Nicolino, who is the pitcher among the numerous high-end Jays pitching prospects that excites him the most. "He knows how to manipulate a baseball while still throwing strikes." Goldstein adds that it's "hard to find 19-year-olds with a 60 changeup."

"He is able to manipulate his fastball-- he's able to change speeds on his fastball, he's able to locate his fastball in and out, up and down. He's able to throw the changeup against both lefties and righties. It's a true-- I never say this about young pitchers, but it's not 60 projected, I think he actually has a 60 pitch," Parks says.

"The breaking ball is not there yet, and it may never get there, but it may not have to get there," he adds. "I think this is a guy who is not going to stumble a lot on the way up."

Matt Dean is Goldstein's pick for the most intriguing prospect in the system: "a classic third base profile," he says, who slid in the draft for signability reasons, and who the Jays went well over slot for. There's a shortage of third base prospects who look like they will stick at the position and show something with the bat, they add.

The BP Chat...

Xavier (Texas): Bigger offensive upside: Gose or Marisnick?
Jason Parks: Gose lacks the hit tool to project as a plus hitter, although his power is legit and the rest of his tools make me weak in the knees. Marisnick has the potential to hit for both average and power, so Im going to give him the edge.

Ed (Winnipeg): How could you let Goldstein rate Marisnick ahead of Gose? HOW? I thought you were cool, man.
Jason Parks: I really like both players, and Gose obviously has crazy tools, but I think Marisnick is the better prospect right now. He is more balanced at the plate, with a better hit tool that will continue to play as he climbs. Gose is an athletic freak, but I have concerns that the hit tool will limit his success at the plate. In the field, Gose can do just about anything he wants, with tons of speed and one of the strongest arms in baseball. It's close, but I'd give the nod to Marisnick as well.

Mike (utica): what is your take on noah syndergaard, justin nicolino, and daniel norris. Who do you like the best and what is their ceilings?
Jason Parks: I really like all three, but I prefer the lefties, especially Nicolino. Being able to manipulate the ball while maintaining control is an art that even major league pitchers struggle with. Nicolino might lack crazy great stuff, but his pitchability is quite advanced. Given his projectable frame, I think the stuff will continue to improve as well. He could be a monster. Huge fan.

Kyle Drabek (a deep dark hole): Shoot straight with me. What are my chances of making it?
Jason Parks: Depends on your definition of making it. I think you can pitch in the majors, once you adjust to the failures of the past. It's one of the hardest obstacles to overcome. I think you can do it. Will you ever be a #1 or #2? Probably not. But you can contribute at the highest level, and that will have value. Plus, you are a Texan. Suck it up and get back on the horse.

C.J. (Milwaukee): Does Anthony Gose's hit tool have enough #want to afford him the opportunity to showcase those tools as a major league regular?
Jason Parks: It needs to improve, but it only needs to find average utility for the speed/power to elevate his offensive profile. If the hit tool finds a way to play at the major league level, Gose could be an all-star.

tjco1990 (KY): How would u rank these 3 young high ceiling arms....Daniel Norris, Tyrell Jenkins and Noah Syndergaard? Long way to go but their upside in enormous. Thanks Professor
Jason Parks: Norris, Jenkins, Syndergaard

Steve C (Toronto): Fill in the blank: Kyle Drabek will win ___ MLB games in his career.
Jason Parks: 50

Bobby (Toronto): I'm very disappointed in the Jays off-season due to having horrible owners. Give me 3 reasons why I should spend my hard earned money to buy season tickets this year. [Note: Waaaahhhhh!!!!]
Jason Parks: Reasons 1,2,3: The team has talent and will be competitive despite not landing Darvish or Fielder.

John (Denver, CO) [Note: really?]: How would you compare/contrast Rosario, Mescadoro, and D'Arnaud?
Jason Parks: D'Arnaud is the complete package and the best of the bunch. He could be an all-star on a regular basis. Mesoraco and Rosario are close for me, with Mesoraco getting the edge because of his dreamy eyes.

Andrew Stoeten (drunkjaysfans.com): [Note: Not me, just presumably some failure of a shitstain hoping to embarrass me after I didn't quibble with Mike Wilner giving Alex Anthopoulos a B+ on the radio last week.] What letter grade would you give AA's performance as a GM so far? What would you like to see him improve?
Jason Parks: GMs can always improve, which isn't to say that AA's performance has been bad. I think he is an intelligent, creative GM that is trying to remain competitive in one of the hardest divisions in the game. I love the org''s approach to amateur talent acquisition.

Mike (Utica, NY): Can Nicolino become a Cliff Lee or Cole Hamels type pitcher if he hits his ceiling?
Jason Parks: CLiff Lee only became Cliff Lee after he failed and then made the necessary adjustments. The basic answer is no. Those guys are aces and its unlikely that Nicolino develops to that level. He has a huge ceiling, but there are very few aces.

Nolan (San Jose): Is it fair to say the Jays have the best farm system in baseball?
Jason Parks: I happen to think they have the best system, but I love high-ceilings and toolsy projections.

Mike (Utica, NY): If Marisnick can stay in center, can he become what Rocco Baldelli should have been?
Jason Parks: Not bad. Some people think he can stick and some think he slides to RF. He's certainly a legit five-tool talent.

jhardman (Apex, NC): Can you give me your thoughts on the long term value of these third base prospects: Moustakas, Chisenhall, Olt, Lawrie. And whether they will stay at 3B.
Jason Parks: Lawrie has made himself into a better defensive player, but its never going to be great. My rankings: Lawrie, Moose, Chisenhall, Olt.

Zooey (LA): The Jays make the playoffs at least once in the next 3 seasons, True or False?
Jason Parks: I'd like to say true, but I believe the answer is false. Sorry.

Layin' Down the Law...

Wes (PA)
Any hope for a Drabek rebound in 2012?
Klaw
I think so. Vegas was really not the right spot for a guy who was overthrowing when he got into trouble - the harder he tries to throw, the worse his command, and the worse the breaking ball gets.

Craig (Toronto)
Jose Bautista recently said in a interview that he's been tested for PED's 16 times since his 2010 season but only 3 times prior. Is MLB going to start burning suspected witches soon too?
Klaw
I just saw that this morning - MLB should be ashamed if that's true. They're falling prey to that same thinking about how you can tell who's using PEDs just by looking at the back of his baseball card.

Brandon (OC, CA)
Keith... really enjoy your columns, podcasts, food tweets. I'm particularly looking forward to your prospect article... without giving too much away, does it seem to you that AAA and AA are much thinner in talent and depth than in years past? Keep up the good work.
Klaw
They absolutely are. I'm finding my top 100 is loaded with high-upside guys from A-ball or below.

ar (philly)
can't believe people are still defending the howard contract. whatever. what's your opinion on the 6-7 year pitching contracts that hamels is in line for?
Klaw
I can't imagine ever giving a pitcher 7 years. I suppose there's some situation where you are in a short window, and figure you'll go for it over the next two years and will live with the risk ... and if your owner is OK with that, sure. But it flies in the face of everything I believe to be true about player valuation and projection.

Bret (Toronto)
Is it reasonable to project Anthony Gose to become similar to the player BJ Upton has been the past few years?
Klaw
They're not that similar.

sweat (Calgary, AB)
Do you think AA and the Jays are on the right path to providing a team that can compete for a playoff spot for years to come? A lot of the local 'reporters' seem to be furious the Jays didn't sign Fielder.
Klaw
Yes, they're on the right path. You need to ignore those reporters more or less permanently, because that is straight-up rabblerousing.

JJ (Liberty Twp, OH)
Worst free agent contract given out this winter?
Klaw
Papelbon.

Gammons: Oswalt Not Interested in Jays

2012-01-30T12:27:00.004-05:00

According to a tweet from Peter Gammons, Peter Gammons, Peter Gammons, Peter Gammons, Gaaaaammmons, Gaaaaaammmons, free agent pitcher Roy Oswalt has let both the Jays and the Clevelands know that he is not interested in pitching for them.

It should come as no surprise, though I'm sure that won't stop certain types from viewing it as some kind of grave offence. It's nothing against the city, surely, but rather the tepid crowds, perceived lack of competitiveness, likelihood of a mid-season trade, numerous trips through customs, distance from home, etc.

This, children, is a big part of why Paul Beeston has said that fans need to start showing up before payroll rises: a lot of players, especially the big names who can write their own ticket, don't want to take the Blue Jays' money-- at least, not when it's equal to anybody else's. If a young, exciting club energizes the fan base and makes for a better environment, and looks more able to compete in the AL East, then they can get serious with free agents. Before that, it's going to be real tough-- it's going to take the kind of overpays, extra years, and player-friendly opt-outs that netted the club Frank Thomas, BJ Ryan and AJ Burnett those many years ago. You can argue that they should be making those concessions regardless, doing whatever it takes, but it just makes it that much harder to get value on contracts that are, by nature, really hard to get value on at the best of times. It's why all the Yu Darvish stuff earlier this winter made so much sense to so many people-- the exclusive negotiating window eliminated a lot of those factors.

So... there's that.

Late-Morning Snack: Monday, January 30th, 2012

2012-01-30T11:02:00.002-05:00

Now it's time for all the stuff I don't figure on making full posts out of, with the spiffy graphic by Matt English (aka @mattomic). It's your Late-Morning Snack...

Steve Slowinski of FanGraphs waxes about Brandon Morrow's lack of success with men on base, and wonders if a big part of it is that he becomes a two pitch pitcher in such situations, and that maybe he needs to develop a third pitch to truly take the next step. Cue a bunch of great comments, including those who recall his late season success after adding a cutter to his repertoire.

Kenny Ken Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports explains why changing the schedule to accommodate an additional playoff team for this season is going to be tricky-- despite the fact that there's no reason not to implement the changes right away.

Mark Simon of ESPN passes along some notes about recent Jays signings Francisco Cordero and Omar Vizquel, which include-- but are not limited to-- the fact that Cordero seems to be losing his fastball, and that thirty players in MLB were born after Vizquel debuted in 1989, including Brett Lawrie.

Mat Germain of Jays Journal ruminates on the Jays fan's dilemma, which I don't really think technically mentions any kind of dilemma at all, but... whatever, interesting read.

Yes, Bluebird Banter's interview with Jays pitching coach Bruce Walton reached a fifth part. Quintuple Pappy!

John Sickels of Minor League Ball looks at the top currently available international players-- and as we know, the Jays have been... er... players on this market since Alex Anthopoulos took over.

Lastly, tonight is the Jays' annual State of the French Fries event, so expect a bunch of stuff about that at some point tomorrow. Whoopty fuck!

Mid-Afternoon Snack: Friday, January 27th, 2012

2012-01-27T13:56:00.005-05:00

Now it's time for all the stuff I don't figure on making full posts out of, with the spiffy graphic by Matt English (aka @mattomic). It's your Mid-Afternoon Snack...

Craig Robinson of Flip Flop Fly Ball is taking his awesome work to Getting Blanked, debuting his ~~biweekly~~ fortnightly infographic extravaganza yesterday with a decidedly non-graphic infographic on the cubic capacity of Rogers Centre.

Catch Craig on the latest FanGraphs podcast, as well.

Seems like yesterday I wasn't the only one being cranky, as Parkes refuted the sportswriter's favourite old canard, "it's not your money," at Getting Blanked, while in that same corner of the interweb, Drew thanked Geoff Baker for his concern, with enough sarcasm that, if it were beer, would have filled Rogers Centre-- an impressive feat (see above).

Could it be that the MSM wailing about Rogers from Cathal Kelly of the Toronto Star and Steve Buffery of the Toronto Sun was partly to blame for our fits? In a word, yes.

Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com isn't terribly high the Jays' high-end prospects, with just four among his top 100: Travis d'Arnaud (25), Anthony Gose (57), Jake Marisnick (58), and Noah Syndergaard (95). The Jays didn't rank among the top ten teams, based on his "prospect points" system, which awards 100 points to the team with the top prospect, 99 to the team with prospect two, and so on.

John Sickels of Minor League Ball looks at Mayo's list and waxes on a few points-- one of them being the one that immediately struck me: what the hell is Manny Banuelos doing at number 13?

All week I've been meaning to do something with the just-released ZiPS projections for the 2012 Jays, which are available at Baseball Think Factory, but since nothing has materialized yet, I'm just gonna go ahead and at least link the damn thing for you.

Kevin Gray of the New Hampshire Union Leader and insisting Yu Darvish was a Jay has a Q&A with hot prospect Jake Marisnick at Gray Matter.

Bluebird Banter brings us parts three and four of their interview with Jays' pitching coach Bruce Walton.

Normally my eyes glaze over at over-long serialized prospects lists, like Jays Journal happens to be doing at the "moment" (read: over the next several weeks), because I just couldn't possibly be bothered to give a shit about the background of guys who will be lucky to one day make it to double-A. I'll catch up when it maybe looks like they're going somewhere, thanks. That said, Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus called Jays Journal's number 41, Eric Arce, his sleeper, so I figure it's worth a read.

By way of NotGraphs, it's Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun on TVO's awesome The Agenda with Steve Paikin!

Late addition: here's the Jays 2012 promotional schedule, for those of you who give a shit about bobbleheads.

Lastly, depth moves! MLBTR tells us that the Jays have signed right-hander Tim Redding, left-hander Bill Murphy and catcher Kyle Phillips. Cue repellant asshole making a sarcastic remark about this being all the Jays could sign this off-season.

Prospecting: Goldstein's Top Jays for Baseball Prospectus

2012-01-26T17:30:00.000-05:00

I didn't want to reveal too much of the gold behind the Baseball Prospectus paywall, but... actually, I don't think this is behind the paywall. Regardless, Kevin Goldstein's journey through each team's farm system finally made its way to the Jays today, and as you might expect, there was some gold in there.

Oh. Wait. I already said that.

Anyway, here are my highlights-- which, of course, should be no substitute for reading the whole thing.

- Just a couple days after Marc Hulet of FanGraphs ranked Jake Marisnick seventh among Jays prospects, Goldstein has him way up at number two, following the club's only other five-star prospect, Travis d'Arnaud.

- The other big surprise, I think, is eleventh-ranked prospect, three-star outfielder Christopher Hawkins. Um... think it's maybe a stretch to say that this guy hasn't been noticed the way some of the others in the system have? The 2010 third-rounder will play for Lansing in 2012, and according to Goldstein, many feel he's due for a breakout. "Hawkins is athletic and projectable," he wriets. "He has plenty of bat speed, and could develop average power as his game matures. He's a tick above-average runner who should become a good corner outfielder."

- Goldstein also has 2011 draft pick Kevin Comer higher than most lists I've seen, checking in at number ten. But don't get all excited just yet, as he gives an ETA of 2016 on him, explaining that "Comer won’t move quickly through the system. He has far less experience than most high school arms due to his cold-weather upbringing, and has had little need for a changeup. He's more of a thrower than a pitcher, and needs to learn the intricacies of his craft."

- Speaking of distance to the big leagues, of the top eleven, Goldstein thinks Travis d'Arnaud-- a rare catcher who can hit in the middle of the order, he says-- is closest to the Majors, placing his ETA at late 2012. Anthony Gose, Drew Hutchison and Deck McGuire are right behind, with 2013 seen as more realistic goals-- though not if you hear some of the talk from the organization about Hutchison. On the other end, along with Comer, Adonys Cardona is looking at something like 2016 arrival.

- As is always the case with prospecting, as good a job as Goldstein does, there's not a whole lot concrete we can take away from it all: checking the archives, the Jays had a pair of five-star prospects in 2011, 2010 and 2009 as well: Kyle Drabek (twice), JP Arencibia (twice), Travis Snider and Brett Wallace. Yikes.

- Lastly, we get a list of the club's best players under 25, among whom Brett Lawrie easily stands out, though "there still needs to be some brakes hit here. Expecting him to repeat his .373 on-base percentage or .580 slugging once advance scouts find his holes is foolish." Henderson Alvarez, perhaps surprisingly, comes in fourth, behind d'Arnaud and Marisnick, while Goldstien has this to say about the high-profile, high-level potential busts: "Drabek, Rasmus, and Snider are all hedges. You could do anything with them on this list and not be wrong. All three could be All-Stars in three years, or two could be in Japan. Drabek's inability to turn things around after a demotion to Triple-A was especially troubling, but his raw stuff is still there. Rasmus was supposed to turn it all around once he got out of an uncomfortable situation in St. Louis, but instead he was worse, to the point of unplayable. This will be Snider’s final appearance if he doesn’t produce. It’s finally time to do something with his 877 major-league plate appearances."

- Ahhh... and lastly, it's a dig at Rogers and the Jays, who "need to stop being the bridesmaids with elite free agents." Ugh.

Alright! It's the Getting Blanked Podcast: Episode 41

2012-01-26T15:34:00.004-05:00

Alright! It's time to go around baseball and talk about the interesting topics (TM), with a little Jaysturbation (or not), cooking tips, heresy, trains, vomit, and even more depressing realizations about just how ridiculously ~~good Michael Jordan was~~ out-of-whack MLB's alignment is thrown in for good measure (or not): it's a brand new episode of the Getting Blanked Podcast.

This week we spoke to Twitter's @marchulet (aka Marc Hulet of FanGraphs!)

Yu can download the podcast right here. (It'll probably also play in your browser, FYI. Click it and find out!)

Alternately, you can hit up the Getting Blanked iTunes page, which is humming along these days, and from now on until the end of eternity will have all our podcasts, vodcasts, live stream mp3s and whatever other goodies dream up posted there in a timely manner.

As always, Mint Musical Interludes courtesy of The Constantines, Arts & Crafts Records and now also Deathwish Records! Be sure to check them out and buy every single fucking thing you hear at their sites.

The Off-Season Turns the Corner

2012-01-26T01:12:00.021-05:00

So the off-season has finally turned that long corner towards spring, with the best free agent finally off the market, as Prince Fielder is a Detroit Tiger, agreeing Tuesday to a nine-year contract worth $214-million.

I'm certain that it won't, but hopefully this puts an end to some of the hysteria about the Jays and Rogers and payroll, which by the end of the saga was largely being driven by the ultra-naive assumption that Fielder was there for the taking on the cheap. The notion was pretty remarkable; premised on the idea that a supposedly-cratering market for a player wasn't a sign that maybe clubs had huge reservations about him, but that Rogers was simply dropping the ball and punting it into the nearest piss puddle-- most likely to be found beneath the pant legs of the nearest wailing Jays fan.

This, of course, wasn't the case. Scott Boras got a princely sum for his client (see what I just did there?), and my hope is that the enormous back-end cost (see what I just did there?) will calm the firestorm. And perhaps it already has.

Yet, something still sticks in my craw about all this, which is basically the central theme of the entire off-season: the fact that so many people seem keen to live by this delusion where they insist Rogers and the Jays and Alex Anthopoulos operate against their own interests in some kind of a fantasy world that gives fans instant, short-sighted gratification.

Rogers' ownership of the Jays has always been, in large part, a means by which to provide cheap content to their media platforms. I've heard the argument made that they should, but they're simply not going to look at the market prices being paid by regional cable networks in the United States for MLB broadcast rights and decide that they owe it to the Jays to provide them something equivalent. Avoiding these kinds of escalating, already astronomical costs was the exact basis for the acquisition of MLSE by Rogers and BCE-- well, that and the seeming inability of sports franchises to go down in value, regardless of how poorly they're managed. Yes, they could spend more on the club, and it's frustrating at times that they won't, but it's foolish and futile to expect them to.

Precisely because of that futility, the vision Alex Anthopoulos has set forth-- the one he was assuredly hired on the basis of-- requires him to be a prudent manager of assets, and to build the club through an emphasis on the draft, scouting, and player development. He was present through the Ricciardi years, and certainly saw not the untenable bargain with cheap motherfucker Rogers so many fans want to cast the GM's relationship ownership as, but his predecessor hoisted on his own petard, reaching a point where he was unable to convince his bosses to continue spending good money after bad.

Now, Rogers' cynical decision to close the purse strings, fire Ricciardi-- eventually-- and commence rethinking organizational strategy was clearly the best one for their bottom line and not necessarily the baseball club. But with a system lacking in high-end talent, a star player ready to jump ship, and a middling player being paid like a megastar, the decision made was palatable to both the fan base and the accounting department, gave Anthopoulos a clean slate, and as such is difficult to argue against. But don't doubt that Rogers' willingness to make it has been extremely instructive to Anthopoulos and Beeston.

Fielder's availability this winter was a moment that many fans felt was so opportune that the Jays couldn't possibly let it pass-- a perceived opportunity for the club to make real headway in the American League East-- based on the thorough misunderstanding of utterances from the club that they could eventually go to $120-million in payroll, and that money will be there when it's needed. It's needed now, some insisted. However, much like those fans' similar despair over Anthopoulos missing out on top pitching trade targets, in my view, they have undersold the cost of such a move in their own minds, and overstated the impact.

Mat Latos was moved to Cincinnati from San Diego for the players MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo-- hardly the be-all, end-all, but to use as a handy example-- ranked as the second-best first base prospect in baseball, the sixth-best catching prospect, and further pieces still.

If the Padres viewed Yonder Alonso and Yasmani Grandal similarly, realistically the Jays would have needed a Lawrie-plus-d'Arnaud- or Arencibia-fronted package to top it-- a price that, given Lawrie's popularity and maple-dick-explodingly awesome debut, can't be viewed as anything but too steep. Yet many fans, often with the most smug, assholishness they can muster, piss and moan about deals that weren't done this winter, insisting that Anthopoulos did something unforgivable by not forcing anything to happen, by not conjuring up a fantasy deal that would have added a huge piece to the Major League roster without giving one up in return, by not offering false hope for 2012 at the expense of 2013 and beyond.

Fielder, of course, is different. His cost comes only in terms of dollars, but they're enormous dollars-- dollars that might seem a terrific expenditure in the early years of the deal, but pose a great deal of risk on the back-end. Perhaps that shouldn't be a consideration for Alex Anthopoulos, given the tremendous wealth his owners are backed by, but it has to be. He can't live in the world, real as it may be, where Rogers ought to have no problem risking potential sunk cost, because it's not their sunk cost, it's his sunk cost. After earning his promotion on the back of a player development-based vision, it's not really his place to go to ownership and demand, even though a Fielder or a Darvish may only get them close to where they want to be-- may still only lead to half-full stadiums in a mid-August out of the race-- that they should assume the risk on those kinds of deals, since, if they don't produce immediate results, hey, we're Rogers, we can always spend more next year.

Some fans seem to feel betrayed by Rogers and Paul Beeston based on the logic-defying notion that if the club hasn't skyrocketed payroll yet, they're never going to; that because they haven't seen the coming wave of prospects yet, they're being asked to chase vapours; that because they're hearing the all-too-familiar refrain of "wait another year," the club is destined for more of the mediocre same in perpetuity.

I guess I understand the impulse to roll one's eyes at more pleas for patience, but it takes a pretty severe blind spot to mistake the reasons Anthopoulos is doing it for the ones Ricciardi gave.

Under the old GM, by the end, we were sold on the hope that if everything broke right, everyone stayed healthy, everyone performed at their peak, and one of the teams ahead of us faltered, maybe we had a chance. It wasn't incorrect, but there simply didn't exist for him, perhaps because of a lack of job security, the same kind of acknowledgement of reality-- about the attrition rate of prospects, about how to approach the trade deadline or the draft, about the most efficient ways to acquire the high-end talent needed to compete with the Yankees and the Red Sox.

Fans have been discouraged by this off-season, often failing to grasp how little fruit we've yet seen borne by Anthopoulos's labours, while the Geoff Bakers of the world asininely scoff from their high horses about bloggers defending their clubs' decisions to stay the course. But while Baker may be right about Rogers' crass, cynical cheapness on the whole, given the reality Alex Anthopoulos is forced to operate in, the best course of action he could have taken-- for the sake of his own job, and by extension the franchise-- is this. The Jays may not be contenders in 2012, but fans should take an immense amount of comfort in the fact that they'll continue to load up in their preparation for unleashing hell on the American League in the following seasons.

Think about it: much like the later years under Ricciardi, the club is good-- it's close to contention-- but, as constructed, it can't not fall short, especially given it's residence in the toughest division in baseball. However, this time there's no magical short window that must be hoped and aimed for. This time we're not waiting on the dramatic false hope of a free agent coup, or one high-end prospect or two progressing quickly and without setback. In 2012, we're talking about maybe the best farm system in the Majors, with wave after wave of multiple prospects due to come over the next several years, six more early-round picks for 2012, and at least six years of Major League team control for every single one of them who has yet to hit Toronto-- not to mention team-friendly contracts coming literally out the ass. [OK, maybe not literally... unless!]

What Anthopoulos has done this winter simply is not just an extension of the previous regime. And as long as Rogers owns the club, it's also the only way it's going to work. Not only that, it is working, just maybe not fast enough for those fans who find so much catharsis in pissing and moaning, or the writers who lack either the intelligence or the compunction that would otherwise stop them from transparently preying on such instincts.

Early-Evening Snack: Wednesday, January 25th, 2012

2012-01-25T18:08:00.001-05:00

Busy bee today. Sorry for the delay. But now, finally, it's time for all the stuff I don't figure on making full posts out of, with the spiffy new graphic by Matt English (aka @mattomic). It's your... um... Early-Evening Snack...

At Getting Blanked, Drew examines the value of building a Super 'Pen.

House of the Bluebird takes a crack at it too, suggesting that it's naive to suggest that Anthopoulos is stockpiling arms for the trade deadline, given that the removal of the potential for Type-B compensation makes these kinds of arms far less valuable than in recent years.

Jim Breen of FanGraphs writes about Francisco Cordero, Blue Jay, a depreciating asset who "is undergoing a transformation on the mound, the same transformation that many aging pitchers have to endure. He is attempting to deal with declining stuff."

Steal of Home superimposes Prince Fielder's hits at Miller Park from 2008 to 2011 onto Comerica, and figures that his power numbers are going to take a hit, with his 24 Miller Park dingers in 2011 dipping to just 11 had he played home games for Detroit.

Bluebird Banter has part two of their interview with Jays pitching coach Bruce Walton. Double Pappy!

Shi Davidi of Sportsnet reports on the Brandon Morrow extension, and the tendency of Alex Anthopoulos to pay players he knows, not ones from outside the organization.

Grantland, Jonah Keri wonders what the hell the Red Sox are doing.

The Toronto Star gives us a nice, odd, superficial comparison of John McDonald and Omar Vizquel.

Lastly, Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times is doing his "MLB owners are cheap fuck and bloggers who don't know what they're talking about do their PR dirty work by nitpicking within the framework of unacceptably low budgets" thing on Twitter. For some reason I'm reminded of this:

Today in Bullshit: "Random" Drug Testing? Not For Joey Bats

2012-01-25T14:30:00.005-05:00

I guess maybe he looks big enough to be a juicer. Wait... you mean the guy on the left?!??!?

Hardball Talk passes along an item from Dominican newspaper Hoy that refers to a speech made by Jose Bautista during a "dinner given by President of the Republic, Leonel Fernandez to a group of Dominican baseball players," in which Jose said that he has been tested sixteen times-- sixteen!-- for PEDs over the last two seasons, despite having been tested only three times over the previous two.

That seems fair. Totally doesn't sound like MLB is just salivating at the prospect of making the Dominican guy on the team in Canada the superstar they could most easily palate doing away with. Did they place that fucking buffoon Peter Keating in charge?

Total. Fucking. Ridiculousness.

"Now, the real test," adds Craig Calcaterra. "Given how often Bautista has been tested, if he has 19 homers in late May, can random columnists resist the urge to write that 'it’s impossible not to be suspicious' column once again? Or is there nothing that will stop that?"

Excellent, excellent point. I mean, are writers who continue to baselessly speculate about Bautista nothing more than incompetent, lazy hacks and putrid shitstains of human beings? Hey, you gotta ask the question.

Uehara Rejected Trade To the Jays

2012-01-25T11:56:00.002-05:00

Welp. I guess we now know for sure what that crazily-translated article from Yahoo! Japan was trying to tell us-- which now makes total sense, and which some folks suggested it said at the time.

MLBTR points us to Richard Durrett of ESPN Dallas, who presumably has a Japanese friend or two and didn't get too sidetracked by a comical web translation to do his job, to clear up the mess, as he explains that a deal was in place to send Rangers reliever Koji Uehara to the Jays-- hopefully not for Mike Napoli this fucking time-- but the player rejected it.

Evidently Toronto was one of the six teams on his limited no-trade clause (the military being one of the others?), and Uehara invoked it, preferring not to move his family from Baltimore to Toronto.

Uhh.... bon choix there, Koji.

Subsequently, one can assume, the Jays move on to plan-B, signing free agent Francisco Cordero to augment their bullpen instead. A definite downgrade.

Rosenthal: Get Set For Super 'Pen as Jays Sign Francisco Cordero

2012-01-24T16:33:00.005-05:00

Taking time out from writing about Prince Fielder and money for the umpteenth time this winter to pass you along this news: Kenny Ken Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports tweets that the Jays have themselves a new setup man, ex-Reds closer Francisco Cordero.

The deal is for just one year-- no option, apparently-- and $4.5-million. It's the same amount they could have paid Jon Rauch, had they picked up his option, only in Cordero it nets them a pitcher who still throws in the mid-90s (OK, he averaged 93 on his four-seamer in 2011), and... well... actually pre-2011 Rauch had some better things going for him: better ERA over the previous two years, better FIP, better fWAR, better walk rates.

But Cordero can miss more bats, will produce a lot more ground balls, and has a lot more depth behind him-- Darren Oliver, Jason Frasor, Casey Janssen-- to pick up the slack. And, of course, Sergio Santos, to close out ballgames.

All in all, while it may not shift the balance of power in the American League, it's a nice move-- especially with a view to the trade deadline. Parkes may be absolutely right when, at Getting Blanked, he worries about the peripherals trending in the wrong direction, but after what Alex Anthopoulos turned Dotel, Francisco and Rauch into, it's hard to see much downside here, given the relatively low cost.

Fielder to the Tigers: Money and the Changing AL Landscape

2012-01-24T15:05:00.005-05:00

Prince Fielder is a Detroit Tiger, agreeing today to a nine-year contract worth $214-million. Scott Boras and the Mystery Team have still got the magic.

Honestly, I really will write about this at some point...

Mid-Afternoon Snack: Tuesday, January 24th, 2012

2012-01-24T14:03:00.002-05:00

Now it's time for all the stuff I don't figure on making full posts out of, with the spiffy graphic by Matt English (aka @mattomic). It's your Mid-Afternoon Snack...

As mentioned previously, I had myself a little Lunch With Mary yesterday, and now the results are up, complete with picture of me looking vaguely sad over a plate of delicious, delicious dead cow. [Note: Clearly, in retrospect, I should have gone with Fun House.]

Rumour the slipped through the cracks a bit yesterday: according to MLBTR, the Jays are among many teams looking at 18-year-old Cuban left-hander Gerardo Concepcion.

MLBTR also tells us that Prince Fielder talks could conclude today. Curiously, the Washington Nationals have a news conference set to introduce the traded-for-weeks-ago Gio Gonzalez tomorrow, according to a tweet from Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post. Might they have something else to announce by then? Cue Armageddon among the batshit stir-crazy, reality-detached elements of the Jays fan base. Which at this point fucking seems like almost everybody.

Fingers crossed that Jon Heyman is right, and Fielder gets seven or eight years, which I think would shut up at least a of the people who are astonished and furious that the Jays haven't shown more interest.

Chris Cwik of FanGraphs tries to make sense of Brandon Morrow's ERA, and why his peripherals stay the about same with men on base (though his fly ball rate went up noticeably with men on in 2011, perhaps as a result of pitching up in the zone to get more strikeouts, Cwik theorizes), yet his BABIP soars. Is he simply terrible pitching from the stretch? Possibly, but Cwik doesn't think so. Like much with Morrow, it's rather unclear.

"If he's able to add a few ticks of velocity he could be a very interesting prospect but he can be effective with his current velo," concludes Bullpen Banter in an extensive report on Drew Hutchison. "Hutchison's natural deception and the angle of his delivery add to his appeal but his cross fire finish raises some durability concerns. Hutchison's calling card is his FB command and a mature feel for pitching. He is comfortable changing speeds and has a veteran's feel for sequencing and setting up hitters. His secondary pitches remain inconsistent but flash the potential to be above average pitches. As a command and deception right-hander with a solid three pitch mix Hutchison projects as a mid rotation starter in the big leagues - and soon."

Gregor Chisholm of BlueJays.com keeps bringing it with prospect gold, having an in-depth talk with Jake Marisnick.

Mop Up Duty looks at how fantasy players are looking at Adam Lind and Colby Rasmus.

BlueBird Banter brings us part one of a four- or five-part interview with Jays pitching coach Bruce Walton. Pappy!

Mike Wilner of the Fan 590 writes at Miked Up about Brandon Morrow's dedication to becoming a bigger asshole. On the mound, that is.

Lastly, watch for some Jose Bautista action in the new trailer for MLB '12: The Show. (If you only care about Jose, I guess I can warn you that you can probably turn the clip off after 40 seconds or so.)

Yahoo Japan Says Jays Trade For Uehara, Google Translate Hilarity Ensues

2012-01-24T13:20:00.005-05:00

"Rangers of Major League Baseball, Blue Jays and pitcher Koji Uehara (36) reached an agreement on June 23 that trade negotiations revealed. Requesting the transfer of forces that drive development of the pitching staff is urgently needed, the military reports received. But Uehara has a veto trades to six teams, the military block is contained within it. If you refuse to transfer the right arm, broken off and trade."

Holy shitballs! The excerpt above is from a rather awesomely Google-translated Yahoo Japan report that might be trying to tell us that the Rangers have traded Koji Uehara to the Jays. Aaaand that the military is one of the teams in his no trade clause? The fuck?

"Trade between the teams was divided between light and dark around the Darvish. Posting and bidding system aimed at acquiring the exclusive right to negotiate both Dar, 5170 $ 3,411 ten thousand troops eventually level (about 40 billion) sale. Six-year contract totaling $ 60 million (approximately 46 million yen) signed."

Translation translation: The supposed deal hinged on the Rangers acquisition of Yu Darvish?

"Dar troops to win the failed part is then turned to strengthening relief. Trade a pitcher had won the right arm of W Santos S · Sox closer into the clear candidate, losing the bid had not "Darumane" even in the pitcher's arm D · Oliver had been with the FA Earn. And now, stood the Uehara singled out as the centerpiece of reinforcement relief."

Translation translation: The Jays, losers on Darvish, have looked to reinforce their bullpen?

"Uehara, have the right to refuse a trade for six teams, including the active army. Playoffs last season, suffered a pitched three consecutive 被弾, by the end of the season was out of the Members of the World Series, was burned to relaunch the military level. I accepted a transfer to become the first team third major Soredakeni Xintiandi is subtle."

Translation translation: ?????????!??!?

"Still, 'The Closer aim to' think it is active in the military may realize. Santos kept the military job candidates raised 30 saves last season, the third year young season, Uehara may change with experience and skills are sufficient. The decision of the veteran's right arm is noteworthy."

Translation: Uehara wants to be a closer and his arm is capable of conscious thought?

Uhhh... ya, I wouldn't put a whole lot of stock into this gem. I'd totally sign up this magic, sentient arm, though!

(hat tip to @spclxk for the link!)

Prospecting: Hulet's Top 15 Jays at FanGraphs

2012-01-24T12:37:00.002-05:00

Dan Norris. I like the look of this guy.

It's interesting to see how the various prospect evaluators out there go about their craft, as some put more weight on stats than others, some are more concerned with closeness to the big leagues than others, and no two are ever quite the same-- and it would be pretty fucking boring if they were.

Today at FanGraphs we have Marc Hulet weighing in on the Jays system, and while it's obvious from his rankings that he's neither stat-heavy, nor closeness-focussed-- the just drafted, pro stat-less Dan Norris ranks third-- he's put together some fantastic reports on all fifteen players, plus a sleeper sixteenth, and best of all, no paywall!

Be sure to read the whole damn thing yourself, but here are might highlights:

- Anthony Gose gets top billing "because of his potential as a four-tool player (The hit tool is the only non-plus)." That would seem to me to be kinda the make-or-break tool, but it's hard to argue, given the rave reviews we've heard about the progress Gose continues to make. "I’ve been cautious with my rankings of Gose in the past," Hulet writes, "but I’m becoming a believer as he continues to show improvements as he climbs the minor league ladder."

- Travis d'Arnaud ranks next, with concerns about his ability to stay healthy the biggest knock on him. Hulet suggests that he could split time at catcher and DH with JP Arencibia in 2013, which is an idea I've heard floated, though I want to believe the Jays could find a better DH bat.

- As mentioned, Dan Norris is third, who Hulet calls the consensus top left-hander in the 2011 draft, and a steal in the second round for the Jays. He thinks he'll head to Vancouver or Bluefield at some point this year-- keep your fingers crossed, granolas.

- In his writeup for Drew Hutchison (fourth), Hulet notes that, much to the chagrin of Jays fans who (like me) were unaware of this, unsigned 2009 draft pick Jake Barrett is expected to be a first- or second-rounder next year. The consolation, of course, is that the money the Jays didn't pay Barrett and James Paxton-- a top prospect for Seattle now-- ended up netting them Hutchison and Jake Marisnick (seventh) over-slot.

- Hutchison, along with Deck McGuire (eighth) looks more like a third starter, with the higher ceiling guys being Norris, Noah Syndergaard (sixth), Justin Nicolino (fifth), and Adonys Cardona (ninth). Aaron Sanchez "has the stuff to fit in near the top of this list but his lack of fastball command and overall control issues have held him back," Hulet writes.

- A Jays official told Hulet this about the quick rise of Syndergaard: "Not surprised because of the combination of fastball velocity and command. His fastball is a weapon. When I saw him… he gave up one hit. (He) didn’t throw a fastball under 93 (mph)… Sat 95-96 getting and as high as 99, all the while showing the ability to command the ball to both sides of the plate." Nails much?

- Asher Wojciechowski struggled last year, but improved greatly when he was allowed to revert to his previous mechanics. "Because he doesn’t have the most fluid delivery," Hulet writes, "the right-hander may be headed for a high-leverage relief job at the MLB level but he’ll be given every opportunity to stick in the starting rotation."

- His sleeper prospect: Canadian outfielder Dalton Pompey.

Davidi: Jays Close to an Extension with Brandon Morrow

2012-01-23T23:37:00.003-05:00

After a couple of items that, I suspect, caught most of us by surprise, we've got something that's the complete opposite: according to a tweet from Shi Davidi of Sportsnet, the Jays are close to completing a three-year, $20-million contract extension with Brandon Morrow, which would buy out his last two years of arbitration, his first year of free agency, and would include a $10-million club option for 2015, and a $1-million buyout if that option is declined.

I dunno... that sounds about right.

The announcement could come, according to Davidi, as soon as tomorrow. Jesus... you step away from the internet for about three hours and all this happens.

Flashback Monday: Jays Sign Omar Vizquel

2012-01-23T23:25:00.004-05:00

In what appears to be yet another organizational "fuck you" to incumbent utility man Mike McCoy, the Jays have signed Omar Vizquel-- who is so old, I believe he was once traded for Carl Yaztrzemski-- according to a club release. Jerry Crasnick of ESPN broke the deal on Twitter, according to MLBTR.

Vizquel is only signed to a minor league deal with an invitation to Spring Training, which kinda makes sense, since 2012 would be his 24th season in the Majors, and he comes off a year in which he OPS'd .592 in 182 plate appearances for the White Sox, playing sparingly at second, third, shortstop, and first base.

It's mostly a depth move, and it couldn't be considered a great sign if he made the team over McCoy or Luis Valbuena in a utility role, but it kinda would be fun to get a chance to see him, even if his best years are, literally, more than a decade behind him (in 1999 he got MVP votes after posting a 110 OPS+ and playing his then-customary otherworldly defence).

In other news, somebody has to tell the Jays' PR people to stop using fielding percentage.

So... there's that.

Anthopoulos Engineering a Super 'Pen?: Rumours of Uehara, Cordero

2012-01-23T22:33:00.002-05:00

Unable to land the big fish he was looking for at the top of his rotation this off-season (y'know, unless Omar Vizquel can pitch), is it possible that Alex Anthopoulos has changed course and is now trying to construct the bullpen to end all bullpens?

That's maybe a bit thick, but it's interesting that the Jays' name has surfaced in a pair of rumours this evening involving a couple bullpen arms who have maybe slipped through the cracks a bit this winter.

Ken Rosenthal tweets that the Texas Rangers have discussed Koji Uehara with the Jays [cue Dustin Parkes swoon], among other clubs. The Rangers, of course, left Uehara off their World Series roster after he struggled in the playoffs, "a 2.35 ERA, an 11.8 K/9 rate and a phenomenal 9.44 K/BB ratio in 65 games" split between Texas and Baltimore, MLBTR reminds us. With the addition of Joe Nathan to shore up the Rangers' bullpen early in the winter, plus Mike Adams at the trade deadline, and Yu Darvish likely moving 2012 starter Alexi Ogando back to the bullpen, Uehara has tumbled a bit down the depth chart, and apparently is movable.

The Jays interest, of course, could be [read: probably is] a simple matter of due diligence, but it's more than a little interesting to think Alex Anthopoulos may still be looking to add to a bullpen that already boasts Sergio Santos, Darren Oliver, Jason Frasor, Casey Janssen, and a few intriguing young arms, like Joel Carreno.

It's doubly interesting since MLBTR is also following a string of rumours about the Jays' reported interest in ex-Cincinnati closer Francisco Cordero.

They aren't the only team interested, however. Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com reported earlier tonight that Cordero will make his decision this week, and that he's narrowed his choice to four clubs, the Angels being one of them. Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times confirmed the Angels involvement in a tweet, perhaps adding the other four clubs, saying that the Jays, Orioles, and Phillies are in the mix.

Um... I'm gonna guess that, if at all, the Jays and O's are really only thanks to their ability to help drive up the price-- would someone really choose either of those destinations if two of the World Series favouites were calling? I don't know. We'll wait and see, I suppose...

Mailing In A Post: Highlights from the Jays Winter Tour

2012-01-23T16:50:00.002-05:00

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Five minutes of the Blue Jays' Winter Tour is about all that I think I could take, personally, and fortunately for me, BlueJays.com has provided us with this handy video of tour highlights that clocks in at 4 minutes 57 seconds. Why... I could totally take a whole three more seconds of that.

Prospecting: Sickels, Mayo and AA Speak

2012-01-23T16:37:00.000-05:00

A couple of interesting prospect-related things to pass along at the start of yet another of the slowest of the slow news weeks, as Jon Sickels has ranked the Jays as the top farm systtem in baseball, Jonathan Mayo has included a pair of Jays on his list of the top ten outfield prospects in baseball, while Alex Anthopoulos spoke to Gregor Chisholm of BlueJays.com about Drew Hutchison.

Sickels

John Sickels has a caveat when he writes at Minor League Ball that the Jays' farm system tops his list as the best in baseball, which is that he doesn't care much for such lists, and that he guesses he "read too much post-modern stuff in college and the idea of saying "this farm system is better than that farm system" never appealed to me outside of generalities."

Fair enough. But still, he says the Jays system is the best!!! And it's because of their "eight B+ prospects with ridiculous depth behind them."

Nails much?

Mayo

Jonathan Mayo has continued his listing of the best prospects in the Majors at MLB.com, and after a couple Jays-free days as he went through second- and first-basemen, we've got a couple of those B+ prospects Sickels was talking about at the bottom of the top-10 outfielders list: Anthony Gose and Jake Marisnick.

"Gose had a huge first full campaign with his new organization, leading the Eastern League with 70 steals, while becoming more proficient on that front," Mayo writes about his ninth-best outfielder. "He drew more walks and showed more power, though he's still striking out too much for a leadoff hitter. Better plate discipline should lead to a better average. Gose is already an excellent defensive outfielder with one of the best arms in the Minors. He's not far from being ready for Toronto's center field, with a stop at Triple-A Las Vegas up next."

"Marisnick started to use his considerable tools consistently in 2011, finishing second in the Midwest League batting race and fourth in OPS," says Mayo of his tenth-best outfield prospect. "Marisnick's plentiful tools should allow him to hit for average and more power as he matures. He's an excellent baserunner who should also continue to be a threat on the basepaths. Marisnick can play center field now, but an outfield with Gose in center and Marisnick in right should have Blue Jays fans excited. He should move up to Dunedin to start the 2012 season, but Double-A New Hampshire could be in his not-too-distant future."

Anthopoulos

Lastly, we've got some more heaps of praise from Alex Anthopoulos in the direction of Drew Hutchison, courtesy of the digital pen of Gregor Chisholm of BlueJays.com.

"I saw more velocity from him late in the year," Anthopoulos said. "I saw a harder slider, that I hadn't seen -- slider was 83-86 mph, which had a lot more power to it. I didn't see the changeup, but there's been a lot of people that have seen the changeup. So I think Drew has really just continued to get better, and I think it's a credit to our player development staff.

"He was someone that our staff felt strongly about in Spring Training. Especially when you're that age, you can come quick. He really started to come on, and you look at how young he is and the fact he has such good command, [that] means he probably will continue to move fast."

This continued praise, of course, according to some fans, means that a trade of Hutchison is imminent-- y'know, because we heard all kinds of praise for Nestor Molina right before he was dealt. Seriously, people?

Bautista On Canadian Cover of MLB '12: The Show?

2012-01-23T16:17:00.004-05:00

This is not the photo I'm talking about.

Perhaps answering a question that probably should have been obvious already, over at Getting Blanked Parkes shows us a photo that he surely spotted during all the time he spends lurking at Jose Bautista's official site which is captioned "Behind the scene shot from the MLB 12 The Show shoot. Big news coming next week."

Could Bautista be the coverboy for Canadian version of the game? In a word: what the fuck do you think?

Personally, however, I was more partial to this snapshot of Jose dropping bombs in a Booster Juice shoot at what appears to be Christie Pits.

Mid-Afternoon Snack: Monday, January 23rd, 2012

2012-01-23T14:06:00.005-05:00

Now it's time for all the stuff I don't figure on making full posts out of, with the spiffy graphic by Matt English (aka @mattomic). It's your Mid-Afternoon Snack...

Speaking of @mattomic, big thanks for the awesome new podcast button that you see in the right sidebar.

I'm a little later than usual (maybe?) with the links this afternoon because I was having Lunch With Mary, which I'll link to as soon as it's posted, in case anybody actually cares. Not so special now, are ya, leading international climate scientist Dr. Ian Burton?

Read this: over at Getting Blanked, Drew tries to unravel the Brett Lawrie mythology.

Also at Getting Blanked, Travis Reitsma speculates about who will be catching for the Jays in 2013, while Parkes wonders what's to become of AJ Burnett?

At the Tao of Stieb, the Org Guy examines the significance of Yunel Escobar, while the Tao himself reminds us of the little things we (he?) love about baseball.

Bluebird Banter wonders if pitchers with diverse arsenals outperform their peripherals.

Lastly, Big Leauge Stew wonders if Yu Darvish was wearing a pot leaf on his shirt today in Texas. Answer: probably not. But if he was... maaaan. He'd have loved Canada, wouldn't he?