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    <title>eComm Blog</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.ecommmedia.com/blog/" />
    
    <id>tag:www.ecommmedia.com,2007-11-29:/blog//6</id>
    <updated>2008-05-09T19:16:45Z</updated>
    
    <generator uri="http://www.sixapart.com/movabletype/">Movable Type Publishing Platform 4.02</generator>

<link rel="self" href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/eCommBlog" type="application/atom+xml" /><feedburner:emailServiceId>1677317</feedburner:emailServiceId><feedburner:feedburnerHostname>http://www.feedburner.com</feedburner:feedburnerHostname><entry>
    <title>Keynote: "Defining the New Singularity" (SD and HD Video)</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/eCommBlog/~3/287038370/defining-the-new-singularity-sdhd-video.html" />
    <id>tag:www.ecommmedia.com,2008:/blog//6.183</id>

    <published>2008-05-09T18:42:37Z</published>
    <updated>2008-05-09T19:16:45Z</updated>

    <summary>Speaker: Mark Rolston (Frog Design) Two parts to this presentation, the SD video is below (alternative HD video) ... and the slides: (alternative PDF version) | View | Upload your own Those reading via an RSS reader may need to...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>Lee S Dryburgh</name>
        <uri>http://www.ss7.net</uri>
    </author>
    
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://www.ecommmedia.com/blog/">
        <![CDATA[<ul><li><strong>Speaker: </strong><a href="http://ecommmedia.com/speakers/anders_carlius/"><a href="http://ecommmedia.com/speakers/mark_rolston/">Mark Rolston</a></a> (Frog Design)</li></ul>
</br>
Two parts to this presentation, the SD video is below (alternative <a href="http://blip.tv/file/get/EComm-MarkRolstonOfFrogDesignAtEmergingCommunicationsEComm200487.m4v">HD video</a>)

<p> <embed src="http://blip.tv/play/1XO2gjEA" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="544" height="336" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true"></embed><br />
</br><br />
... and the slides: (alternative <a href="http://ecommmedia.com/2008/downloads/slides/day1/26_Mark_Rolston_eComm2008.pdf">PDF version</a>)</p>

<div style="width:425px;text-align:left" id="__ss_343574"><object style="margin:0px" width="425" height="355"><param name="movie" value="http://static.slideshare.net/swf/ssplayer2.swf?doc=ecomm2008markrolston-1207733697985630-9"/><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"/><param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always"/><embed src="http://static.slideshare.net/swf/ssplayer2.swf?doc=ecomm2008markrolston-1207733697985630-9" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="355"></embed></object><div style="font-size:11px;font-family:tahoma,arial;height:26px;padding-top:2px;"><a href="http://www.slideshare.net/?src=embed"><img src="http://static.slideshare.net/swf/logo_embd.png" style="border:0px none;margin-bottom:-5px" alt="SlideShare"/></a> | <a href="http://www.slideshare.net/eComm2008/mark-rolstons-presentation-at-ecomm-2008?src=embed" title="View 'Mark Rolston&#39;s presentation at eComm 2008' on SlideShare">View</a> | <a href="http://www.slideshare.net/upload?src=embed">Upload your own</a></div></div>
</br>
Those reading via an RSS reader may need to open up the post in a browser to see the embedded video.]]>
        
    </content>
<feedburner:origLink>http://www.ecommmedia.com/blog/2008/05/defining-the-new-singularity-sdhd-video.html</feedburner:origLink></entry>

<entry>
    <title>Session: "Ad-Hoc Mesh Networking with GSM" (SD and HD Video)</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/eCommBlog/~3/283472837/mesh-networking-with-gsm-sdhd-video.html" />
    <id>tag:www.ecommmedia.com,2008:/blog//6.181</id>

    <published>2008-05-04T19:36:00Z</published>
    <updated>2008-05-09T19:17:31Z</updated>

    <summary> Speaker: Anders Carlius (TerraNet)Materials: Slides A high definition version is available here Those reading via an RSS reader may need to open up the post in a browser to see the embedded video....</summary>
    <author>
        <name>Lee S Dryburgh</name>
        <uri>http://www.ss7.net</uri>
    </author>
    
        <category term="HD Video" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
        <category term="SD Video" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
        <category term="eComm2008" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
    <category term="disruption" label="disruption" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="gsm" label="gsm" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="innovation" label="innovation" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="mesh" label="mesh" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="wireless" label="wireless" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://www.ecommmedia.com/blog/">
        <![CDATA[<p><embed src="http://blip.tv/play/1XO18zcA" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="544" height="336" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true"></embed><br />
<ul><li><strong>Speaker: </strong><a href="http://ecommmedia.com/speakers/anders_carlius/">Anders Carlius</a> (TerraNet)</li><li><strong>Materials: </strong><a href="http://ecommmedia.com/2008/downloads/slides/day2/21_Anders_Carlius_eComm2008.ppt">Slides</a></li><br />
</ul>A high definition version is available <a href="http://blip.tv/file/get/EComm-AndersCarliusOfTerraNetAtEmergingCommunicationsEComm2008225.m4v">here</a><br />
Those reading via an RSS reader may need to open up the post in a browser to see the embedded video.</p>]]>
        
    </content>
<feedburner:origLink>http://www.ecommmedia.com/blog/2008/05/mesh-networking-with-gsm-sdhd-video.html</feedburner:origLink></entry>

<entry>
    <title>Keynote: Personal Infrastructure -  Me to the Power of Us (Low Def. Video)</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/eCommBlog/~3/281691172/me-to-the-power-of-us-ld-video.html" />
    <id>tag:www.ecommmedia.com,2008:/blog//6.180</id>

    <published>2008-05-01T21:26:45Z</published>
    <updated>2008-05-01T21:40:09Z</updated>

    <summary> Speaker: Norman Lewis (Wireless Grids Corporation)Materials: Slides A high definition version will be made available; when available it will be announced on the blog and in the monthly newsletter. Those reading via an RSS reader may need to open...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>Lee S Dryburgh</name>
        <uri>http://www.ss7.net</uri>
    </author>
    
        <category term="Low Def. Video" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
        <category term="eComm2008" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
        <category term="keynote" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://www.ecommmedia.com/blog/">
        <![CDATA[<p><embed id="VideoPlayback" style="width:400px;height:326px" flashvars="" src="http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docid=-9092096734050224043&hl=en" type="application/x-shockwave-flash"> </embed><br />
<ul><li><strong>Speaker: </strong><a href="http://ecommmedia.com/speakers/norman_lewis/">Norman Lewis</a> (Wireless Grids Corporation)</li><li><strong>Materials: </strong><a href="http://ecommmedia.com/2008/downloads/slides/day1/19_Norman_Lewis_eComm2008.pdf">Slides</a></li><br />
</ul>A high definition version will be made available; when available it will be announced on the <a href="http://ecommmedia.com/blog">blog</a> and in the monthly <a href="http://list-manage.com/subscribe.phtml?id=d391b07e98">newsletter</a>.</br><br />
Those reading via an RSS reader may need to open up the post in a browser to see the embedded video.</p>]]>
        
    </content>
<feedburner:origLink>http://www.ecommmedia.com/blog/2008/05/me-to-the-power-of-us-ld-video.html</feedburner:origLink></entry>

<entry>
    <title>"a new era requires a new kind of conference..."</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/eCommBlog/~3/281164076/new-era-new-conference.html" />
    <id>tag:www.ecommmedia.com,2008:/blog//6.178</id>

    <published>2008-05-01T01:06:02Z</published>
    <updated>2008-05-01T01:13:27Z</updated>

    <summary>Last month at the inaugural eComm we decided not to print a programme guide but instead to issue a PDF on a freebie USB keyring. The welcome note read:We're honored that you joined us at for the first eComm conference....</summary>
    <author>
        <name>Lee S Dryburgh</name>
        <uri>http://www.ss7.net</uri>
    </author>
    
        <category term="eComm2008" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
        <category term="future" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
    <category term="700mhz" label="700mhz" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="android" label="Android" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="future" label="future" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="innovation" label="innovation" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="iphone" label="iPhone" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="operators" label="operators" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://www.ecommmedia.com/blog/">
        <![CDATA[Last month at the inaugural eComm we decided not to print a programme guide but instead to issue a PDF on a freebie USB keyring. The welcome note read:<br /><br /><blockquote>We're honored that you joined us at for the first eComm conference. In doing so you've joined history in the<br />making.<br /><br />This community finds itself --quite suddenly-- in a new world of more open opportunity. Open handsets, open networks and open telecom platforms lend themselves to innovation in the worlds garages and bedrooms. And the signs are promising. Within the last 12 months many important events have occurred. First Apple released the iPhone, a phone running their computer operating system; a high school kid then spent the summer cracking the platform, hacking iPhones went critical, and finally Apple itself was forced to "blink", resulting<br />with the release of an SDK. The FCC stated that the next big block of spectrum would only be auctioned to an open network and Google announced first that it was willing to spend billions to create universal access through wireless spectrum. Then Google announced Android, a new open phone operating system; T-Mobile and Sprint joined the Open Handset Alliance; and even Verizon and AT&amp;T made PR releases about becoming open<br />networks.<br /><br />We believe a new era requires a new kind of conference. Previous industry talking to the industry type events have yielded nothing save consensual hallucinations. The gap between what telecom operators are doing (or allowing) and what the innovation community COULD do, and where end users are taking us is widening fast.<br /><br />Communications innovation is being democratized. The winners will be those who embrace it. So welcome to eComm 2008. Let's all create an Emerging Communications Community capable of rethinking the trillion dollar industry together!<br /><br />Lee Dryburgh<br />Founder, eComm Media<br /></blockquote>]]>
        
    </content>
<feedburner:origLink>http://www.ecommmedia.com/blog/2008/05/new-era-new-conference.html</feedburner:origLink></entry>

<entry>
    <title>Award Winner: Best New Product - Fonolo (Low Def. Video)</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/eCommBlog/~3/280181355/shai-berger-ecomm2008-award.html" />
    <id>tag:www.ecommmedia.com,2008:/blog//6.177</id>

    <published>2008-04-29T15:01:22Z</published>
    <updated>2008-04-29T15:47:32Z</updated>

    <summary> Speaker: Shai Berger (Fonolo)Materials: Slides A high definition version will be made available; when available it will be announced on the blog and in the monthly newsletter....</summary>
    <author>
        <name>Lee S Dryburgh</name>
        <uri>http://www.ss7.net</uri>
    </author>
    
        <category term="Awards" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
        <category term="Low Def. Video" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
        <category term="eComm2008" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://www.ecommmedia.com/blog/">
        <![CDATA[<p><embed id="VideoPlayback" style="width:400px;height:326px" flashvars="" src="http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docid=-2223046558312966636&hl=en" type="application/x-shockwave-flash"> </embed><br />
<ul><li><strong>Speaker: </strong><a href="http://ecommmedia.com/speakers/shai_berger/">Shai Berger</a> (Fonolo)</li><li><strong>Materials: </strong><a href="http://eCommMedia.com/2008/downloads/slides/day2/10_Shai_Berger_eComm2008.ppt">Slides</a></li><br />
</ul>A high definition version will be made available; when available it will be announced on the <a href="http://ecommmedia.com/blog">blog</a> and in the monthly <a href="http://list-manage.com/subscribe.phtml?id=d391b07e98">newsletter</a>.</p>]]>
        
    </content>
<feedburner:origLink>http://www.ecommmedia.com/blog/2008/04/shai-berger-ecomm2008-award.html</feedburner:origLink></entry>

<entry>
    <title>Panel: What Will Drive Wireless Innovation? (Low Def. Video)</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/eCommBlog/~3/279621214/what-will-drive-wireless-innovation.html" />
    <id>tag:www.ecommmedia.com,2008:/blog//6.176</id>

    <published>2008-04-28T20:06:04Z</published>
    <updated>2008-04-29T12:33:01Z</updated>

    <summary> Moderator: Brough Turner (NMS Communications)Panelists (in left to right order): Martin Geddes (STL Partners), Stanley Chia (Vodafone), Sumit Agarwal, (Google), Jonathan Christensen (Skype), Christopher Allen (iPhoneWebDev.com), Benoit Schillings, (Trolltech/Nokia) A high definition version will be made available; when available...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>Lee S Dryburgh</name>
        <uri>http://www.ss7.net</uri>
    </author>
    
        <category term="Low Def. Video" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
        <category term="eComm2008" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
    <category term="android" label="Android" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="innovation" label="Innovation" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="iphone" label="iPhone" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="nokia" label="Nokia" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="skype" label="Skype" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="trolltech" label="Trolltech" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="vodafone" label="Vodafone" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://www.ecommmedia.com/blog/">
        <![CDATA[<p><embed id="VideoPlayback" style="width:400px;height:326px" flashvars="" src="http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docid=6119551826989496388&hl=en" type="application/x-shockwave-flash"> </embed><br />
<ul><li><strong>Moderator:</strong><a href="http://ecommmedia.com/speakers/brough_turner/"> Brough Turner</a> (NMS Communications)</li><li><strong>Panelists (in left to right order):</strong><a href="http://ecommmedia.com/speakers/martin_geddes/"> Martin Geddes</a> (STL Partners), <a href="http://ecommmedia.com/speakers/stanley_chia/">Stanley Chia</a> (Vodafone), Sumit Agarwal, (Google), <a href="http://ecommmedia.com/speakers/jonathan_christensen/">Jonathan Christensen</a> (Skype), <a href="http://ecommmedia.com/speakers/christopher_allen/">Christopher Allen</a> (iPhoneWebDev.com), <a href="http://ecommmedia.com/speakers/benoit_schillings/">Benoit Schillings</a>, (Trolltech/Nokia)</li><br />
</ul>A high definition version will be made available; when available it will be announced on the <a href="http://ecommmedia.com/blog">blog</a> and in the monthly <a href="http://list-manage.com/subscribe.phtml?id=d391b07e98">newsletter</a>.</p>]]>
        
    </content>
<feedburner:origLink>http://www.ecommmedia.com/blog/2008/04/what-will-drive-wireless-innovation.html</feedburner:origLink></entry>

<entry>
    <title>Keynote: "Infrastructure, Communities and Corporations: is There a Middle Way Between Open and Closed?" - Transcript</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/eCommBlog/~3/274944042/michel-bauwens-ecomm2008-keynote.html" />
    <id>tag:www.ecommmedia.com,2008:/blog//6.175</id>

    <published>2008-04-21T20:23:10Z</published>
    <updated>2008-04-21T20:39:04Z</updated>

    <summary><![CDATA[ Chair:&nbsp;&nbsp; The next person on is Michael Bauwens of peer-to-peer fame. Somebody who I really made a personal invite to come over here. As I said, he lives in the "Hills of Thailand". Is that correct? So it was...]]></summary>
    <author>
        <name>Lee S Dryburgh</name>
        <uri>http://www.ss7.net</uri>
    </author>
    
        <category term="eComm2008" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
        <category term="keynote" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
        <category term="p2p" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://www.ecommmedia.com/blog/">
        <![CDATA[<span class="mt-enclosure mt-enclosure-image"><img alt="eComm2008_Michel_Bauwens.jpg" src="http://www.ecommmedia.com/blog/Images/eComm2008_Michel_Bauwens.jpg" class="mt-image-right" style="margin: 0pt 0pt 20px 20px; float: right;" height="500" width="333" /></span> <div><b>Chair:</b>&nbsp;&nbsp; The next person on is Michael Bauwens of peer-to-peer
fame. Somebody who I really made a personal invite to come over here.
As I said, he lives in the "Hills of Thailand". Is that correct? So it
was quite an expedition to come over. So, please welcome Michael
Bauwens of the <a href="http://www.p2pfoundation.net/">Peer-to-Peer Foundation</a>. Thank you, Michael.<br /><br /><b>Michel:</b>&nbsp;&nbsp;
Thank you. The slide that you see there is basically an overview of
what we cover. As you will see, I am not sure you can read it but the
green things are the deep changes that we are going through today. You
will see that there are changes in ways of knowing, there are the
changes in the way you are feeling. I just read a book about young
generations in Dutch which says that said sharing is a default
mentality amongst the digital natives [the book is called the '<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Generation_Einstein">Einstein Generation</a>'].
This is one example of how the value systems are changing. Actually,
what I want to talk about today is really the changes that are taking
place when there is a new mode of production emerging in our society.
Basically, what I am saying is that there is a new way of producing
value which I call <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peer_production">peer production</a>. It is basically the self-aggregation of people through social relationships. If you are familiar with <a href="http://www.benkler.org/">Benkler's</a> book, <a href="http://www.benkler.org/wonchapters.html">The Wealth of Networks</a>, you will know what I am talking about.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <br /><br />I was just talking about a friend I met in the Amsterdam called James Burke. He is with a project called <a href="http://www.roomwareproject.org/">Roomware</a>.
This is just a bunch of young people. When they go to a party, they
basically want to point their mobile phone and share music and pictures
during the party using a randomizer so that everybody can share in the
fun and share in constructing the party. There are thousands of
projects of young people doing things, inventing things, having social
innovation that is happening outside of the boundaries of the
corporations. I can guarantee you that this group of young people will
be faster with their innovation than 200 paid engineers in Philips.
This kind of dynamic is something that we are seeing more and more.<br /><br />Basically,
we are inventing new ways of doing things. What I want to focus on
really is on the business models that are involved. I talked for about
five minutes briefly yesterday, I think. I said I believe in something
called the law of asymmetrical&nbsp; competition. Basically, what it says is
that when a company producing a closed proprietary knowledge refuses
any participation from its users and does not create any common value,
when it is facing a for-benefit institution like the <a href="http://www.mozilla.org/">Mozilla Foundation</a> or the <a href="http://wikimediafoundation.org/">Wikimedia Foundation</a>
which is linked to a community producing common value like the
Wikipedia or the Linux, that eventually, there will always be a point
where that community will make a better product than the
corporation.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <br /><br />If you derive from that the second law which
is, two for-profit companies competing with each other with one opening
up to participation using open licenses and producing some form of
common value, it will be more competitive than the company not doing
it. If you believe that is true, then what you get is a little bit of
what you see on this slide which is that basically we are moving to an
economy where I think, in the United States, only 23% of the people are
involved in material production and producing material stuff, so we are
clearly the dominant on the immaterial field. If in this immaterial
field the place of for benefit production is augmenting, then we can
see a good case for growth of peer production.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <br /><br />Most people
think that peer production will be limited to knowledge production to
content to free software. But, basically, I think that is a mistake
because everything that needs to be produced physically needs to be
designed first. Designing a car is essentially not so different from
collaborating on free software. One of the pages, if you go to <a href="http://www.p2pfoundation.net/">P2PFoundation.net</a>, is called <a href="http://www.p2pfoundation.net/Category:Design">P2P design</a>. It is basically about open design for physical production.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <br /><br />For example, let us talk about the car. Most people probably know the <a href="http://www.theoscarproject.org/">Oscar Project</a>
which, I think is not going well. Last year in Amsterdam, there was an
open-sourced car concept model shown at the automobile exhibition,
called the Common. One of my associates talked with those people and
they said they were very close to negotiating a deal for the production
of their design and that they expected production to take place in
2011.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <br /><br />The thing about peer production is that, as a
company, and I can say that as I've have been an entrepreneur for 20
years and I was a strategy director in a large telco, you always
innovate relatively, to be better as the competition but, if you do
that as a community, let us say the Firefox community, you are always
innovating for absolute quality. You want to make the best possible
browser. Instead of a product which you freeze at some point,
especially if you have no competition, you have a permanent process of
innovation. That means that whenever you have an open design community
starting a process, and it can take 5,10, or maybe 15 years but, there
will always be a point where the open source fridge that they produce
will be better, more environmental friendly, more modular, more longer
lasting than any design that can be produced by a private company.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <br /><br />This
is a slide that tries to explain the business model. We can do two
things. We can define open and closed as a proprietary format, and we
can define free and paid. That gives you four quadrants which you can
see there. Basically, what everybody knows here is the paid and closed,
right? You make something, you have a patent or copyright on it, and
then you sell it. This is the classic business model. This is the one
that is most on the mind by contemporary developments. In the age where
information, knowledge can be copied infinitely at a very low marginal
cost, it will be increasingly difficult to protect that information, to
protect your designs, to protect your patents. We can see that with
free software. We can see that with music, whether they use the law or
technology as the DRM, it will be increasingly difficult to stop the
undermining of proprietary knowledge.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <br /><br />Think about the
middle ages. Some of the first inventors of the textile machine were
killed. But, it was inevitable. Eventually, the textile machinery
became an important model because it was more efficient and more
productive. Basically, this model is facing two main competitors. The
one is closed and free. That is what the book of Chris Anderson is
about. It just came out. I have not read it yet. But basically,
whenever you are dealing with knowledge, you are competing with
somebody. If that other party decides to give its primary commodity to
knowledge for free, they will undermine your proprietary&nbsp; business
model. What you do then is you are forced to free up your primary
commodity and build a portfolio of secondary services around it. That
is something very familiar in the publishing field and in the media
field.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <br /><br />The other competition that you will face is people
using open proprietary codes. The same effect is actually free if you
like. Free as in free speech and also free as in free beer. These
people, of course as the Linux model, will build secondary practices
around the free open content. The third one, but it is also competing
with you, is the totally open and free alternatives. Think about
couchsurfing.com. Some people call it the adventure economy. <a href="http://www.couchsurfing.com/">Couch surfing</a>,
I do not know if you have kids who use it, is basically a way to find
lodging in the whole world. You want to go to Chiang Mai, if you type
it in, you will find about 20 people offering free lodging. You can
read their reputation. You can write to them and ask them if you can
have lodging and they will look at your reputation. All of this process
is entirely without money. It is an exchange. It is a civil exchange of
value by civil society which is of course also, in some sectors,
counting as a competing modality.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <br /><br />Basically, if you look at
this model, what I am saying is the upper right quadrant is what we
have now the most precarious in the future. We will have to look this
as a business, the two on the upper left and down right, if you want to
make a business. I also make a difference, which I explained very
shortly yesterday, and I want to explain it again in a little more
detail now. There are three major economic streams that are coming out
of peer production and the first is a sharing economy. Look at YouTube.
Look at Google. Those companies are no longer producing value by
themselves. What they are doing is enabling and empowering sharing to
occur, sharing documents in case of Google, and sharing videos in case
of YouTube. The motivational people writing documents that you can find
in Google, 98% of the documents on Google are not institutional
documents. They are written by civil society,a very large percentage of
users generate&nbsp; the content. Most of these people are not doing it for
sale. They are producing not for the exchange value. They are producing
use value. The model of the sharing economy is that of third party
propriety platforms enabling the sharing and lifting of the tension.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
<br /><br />Second example of a business model is a commons model, whereby
a community-driven process is creating value, the common value. Think
about Wikipedia and Linux as the main examples. Around that, is
created&nbsp; an ecology of businesses adding value. The reason behind that
is you cannot sell abundance. The market is about tension between
supply and demand. Therefore, if you have something which you can copy
for free, it is not going to create the market. But, it is creating a
vast opportunity to create added value around the commons. The model we
have in the commons economy is not a double model between community and
company. It is a triple model.&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;We have on the one hand the community
mostly self-managing it's production of value. We have a new set of
institutions which I call for-benefit institutions. Think about the
WikiMedia Foundation, the Apache Foundation, Etc., the Mozilla
Foundation. These are not for-profit companies. As you see, for
example, Wikipedia could make billions of dollars selling
advertisements. They are not going to do it. It is not in their
interest. Craig's List refuses advertising. The Mozilla Foundation is
the same but it is a little different. The Mozilla Foundation makes
money by selling the space to Google search, which funds their for
benefit infrastructure. Basically, the community of producers at large
is not in there for profit. So, we have three players. We have the
community. We have the for-benefit institution managing the
infrastructure. And, we have ecology of businesses around it.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <br /><br />I
think the key problem for business is how we manage openness and
closedness. The basic idea here is that openness creates value but it
does not capture it. In order to have market value, you need to capture
some form of added value of scarce value. That is the whole thing. You
can see that in the competition between MySpace and FaceBook. When
MySpace got taken over by Murdoch, whole new kind of measures were
introduced to stop the sharing on MySpace and you saw that the growth
curve was diminishing. When FaceBook opened up, you saw the fantastic
growth of FaceBook happening. Apple, the epitome of the closed company,
under pressure of the hacking community, is opening up partially its
development to API's. That is the kind of tension that every company is
going to face.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <br /><br />Another problem is what do you do with the
dynamic of the community? Profit sharing usually does not work. If the
community is there, from a wide variety of motivations and not
primarily for profit motivation, paying some people and not others,
usually creates what we call crowding out. In other words, if I see
that you are getting money for voluntary effort and I am not getting
money, then I stop volunteering. Most companies, and I think I
mentioned that, like IBM when I spoke with somebody at the company they
told me they saved 90% of the software infrastructure costs using
Linux. 10% of that savings are sent back to the Linux community but not
as profit sharing, as benefit sharing. In other words, it is a general
support for the infrastructure of sharing in the commons rather than
sharing money with individuals. That preserves the voluntary dynamic in
the community.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <br /><br />This is happening more and more. For
example, when I say that peer production is also very important for
physical production, I would say two things. One thing is that,
typically, you would say capitalism is about entrepreneurship. But,
capitalism and entrepreneurship are diverging more and more. The
example you could use is the BitTorrent. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bram_Cohen">Bram Cohen</a>
had no money. He used a series of credit cards and he produced the most
important, most valuable software that we use today for multimedia
distribution on the Internet. So what happens, and we can see that in
the Web 2.0, is that you do not need capital to start because that is a
design process. It is just brains working together with other brains.
Capital only comes in, not in the beginning but, at the end. It is when
you have success. It is when the users are breaking down your servers,
that you need capital. More and more we see entrepreneurs that are
creating value by self-aggregating capital.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <br /><br />I actually
already said that. This is a business model. This is another important
element. This is the kind of modeling that is done by a man called
Xavier Comtesse. He is Swiss. He shows that the evolution is from a
corporation towards increased participation. You have passive
consumption and you go self-service or do-it-yourself. Co-design up to
co-creation. Something is missing there. Basically, what I think is
missing is the power of the community. So what I am proposing is to
enrich his model by a model of community involvement. What you see
there, and I will not have time to go into it but, there is a whole
variety of new business models that are emerging not on the side of the
polarity of the institution, but on the polarity of the community. It
is very important because I think that this is what the new business
models are about.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <br /><br />Classic business is about, I am an
institution or corporation, I see atomized individuals organized as a
'mass', and I would practice mass marketing to sell to those consumers.
I think the new model is recognizing that the users and consumers are
always already connected in various peer groups that they are doing all
kinds of self-aggregated activities and value production amongst
themselves. Therefore, I will position myself on the side of these
communities and see what they need.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <br /><br />For example, in China,
we have these group-buying companies that are very powerful there. As
far as I understand it, they are not going to a company and ask what
they are selling and then looking for consumers. But, what they are
doing is they change the polarity around. They are talking to the
consumers and saying "what do you need?" then, with that knowledge,
they go negotiate with companies and asking them for discounts for the
community. Basically, the model I think will be a model whereby a
tribal economy is emerging, whereby businesses are emerging that know
from inside-out the needs of a particular community and that creates
services around that.&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;I just want to say a little about the relation
between peer-to-peer and the market. It is a pretty clear that peer
production can only exist when there is a surplus and abundance in the
existing world. In other words, peer-to-peer is depending on the
market. There is no doubt about it. But on the other hand, the market
is increasingly depending on peer-to-peer or on peer production.
Remember, you are all in this business. I had a web company in 2000.
The crisis happened. Everybody was saying it is the end of the
Internet. There will be no more innovation for a few years. What
happened? The opposite, the innovation did not stop without the
companies but it increased and it accelerated. That shows that,
actually, the results are reversed.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <br /><br />In other words,
innovation is more and more social. It is an emerging property of the
network. This is a form of innovation which is more and more prevalent
that it is the communites, the exchanges and the sharing within
communities that lead to innovation, which are then captured. In the
book from <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eric_Von_Hippel">Eric Von Hippel</a>, <a href="http://web.mit.edu/evhippel/www/democ1.htm">The Democratization of Innovation</a>,
he mentions Gatorade, the sports bra, the mountain bike. He describes
the sports industry, kite surfing, as all industries where the
community lead user innovation is primary and captured by commercial
companies after the fact.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <br /><br />We have dialectic between both. I
think there is a problem, which I call the crisis of value which is a
following. We are producing more and more use value as communities and
as citizens. But, only a marginal part of that use value is captured by
monetization. If I had a slide for that, I wouldshow the following. The
growth of use value on YouTube is 100 million per day, growing
exponentially. But, the growth of the advertising is like this, growing
only linearly, and the gap between the creation of use value and the
monetization of it is increasing every day. More and more young people
choose for passionate production. If you talk to young people, which I
regularly do when I go to Amsterdam, "yes, they work." They work for
Microsoft, they work for different companies. But, what they really
want to do is have a meaningful activity.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <br /><br />They usually work
around projects. In between projects, they want to do their passionate
production. This is increasingly so. They define their identity through
their engagements in their common projects. They do not say "I work for
Microsoft." They say "I work on RoomWare" which is the free software
project they are working on. I think this creates a precarity in our
society. A precariousness because we do not have a mechanism for
funding this common value production even though the market
increasingly profits from it. This creates a serious problem.&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <br /><br />In
Europe, we have a partial answer for that which is what we call
transitional labor market theory. Basically, what we are doing in
Europe is creating all kinds of mechanisms that make it easier for
people to transit from job to job. Because now, by the time you are 35,
you have I think 13 jobs in average. They are trying to smooth out the
transitions. What I am saying is that it is actually between the
transitions that we are most productive. It is in between the jobs that
we actually do the most innovative work.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <br /><br />I said we are
talking about conflicts. So this is a slide I did not produce it. I
have the source of it on my slide show. Basically, this shows a new
dynamic which is exists between communities and institutions. Again,
they are different in YouTube, for example, in the sharing communities
where the people who share on YouTube are individual-oriented. They
want to share their creative expression. They do not have strong links
with each other and, therefore, they are depending on a third party.
That does not mean they have no power because the power eventually is
the power to leave. And the companies are struggling between the
openness that creates value and the closing down that captures the
value. But if they close down too much, the user community will be
tempted to change and to opt out. We either have a user revolt, which
we had in Digg, FaceBook, or we have what we call a forking which is a
departure of the user population from that particular site to another
one.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <br /><br />There is a price to pay, however, since people invest
in this social network, they put their pictures there and their
friends. So, if you are really invested in YouTube or any other social
network site, you have a price to pay. This creates a particular social
tension between community and corporation. We could call the class
struggle of the knowledge society. There are differential interests
there. The community wants total openness. We want the social graph. We
want to be able to own our identity, to control it, to control our
privacy, to move from one network to another. The problem for a company
is that if they allow total openness, they are afraid that they lose
the control over the scarcity and cannot have a business model because,
of course, if you open up totally, then any other competitor can take
that value and market it as well. This is a difficult tension that we
have in this sharing economy.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <br /><br />An answer, and this is
something that we are working on with the P2P Foundation, is that some
people within the sharing community will take a commons-oriented
approach and actually produce their own infrastructures. One of the
things we do is we monitor all of the communities which decide, for
example, "Why do we not make our own video sharing communities and why
instead of a centralized server part, why do we not use a distributed
even server-less system?" because, basically, what creates the need for
proprietary&nbsp; platforms and the need for capital is the fact that you
need a centralized service.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <br /><br />Can we design around that and
actually create true peer-to-peer infrastructures that do not need
propriety or platforms? It really depends on each case that we are
working on. Most people, if they are happy with a proprietary platform,
will not want to make the effort to create an alternative. Basically,
this new situation, this new dynamic, creates all kinds of social
tensions around different things like who owns the platform, how open
and free is it, how much sharing is possible? This is an important
issue. Where is the power in a distributed network? In other words, you
cannot see it. But, it is usually in the invisible architectures. Why
can we not remix in YouTube? It is in the design. Therefore, it is very
important to have value-conscious design where the value's diversity
and autonomy are actually included in the design itself.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <br /><br />Another
example is ownership of the content. I am not sure it is still that
way, but it used to be when you entered your video on YouTube you
basically signed away all your rights. I think they have changed it
somehow, but I am not sure about the details. This is a kind of
recurring problem that when you enter a proprietary site, you lose your
rights to your content. Revenue sharing is another issue. How do you
solve that? It is not easy. For example, YouTube made 2 billion
dollars. It did not give any money back to the millions of people who
have created the value. As I said, profit sharing is, obviously, not
the good solution because that might actually harm the sharing that
takes place. So, how do that?&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <br /><br />I am not sure how much time I
still have, but I will conclude with a more political statement which
is the following: there is undoubtedly, not just the business aspect of
peer-to-peer, but also a political aspect. Here is my five cents worth&nbsp;
of analysis of what is wrong with the world, it is very simple. We have
a world today which combines the worst of both worlds. We live in
pseudo-abundance, false abundance. We think that we have infinite
nature. Therefore, we have an infinite growth machine functioning
within a finite environment. I personally do not think that will last
very long.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <br /><br />The second thing we do is we think we need to
create artificial scarcities in the immaterial world so that we can
create a market in it. Basically, the proposition, of course is just to
turn that around. Let us have an economy which recognizes natural
limits and let us have an immaterial field of sharing in culture and
knowledge where the natural flow, the infinite flow, and the infinite
replicability of information and culture are recognized. This political
aspect is not my invention.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <br /><br />If you would look at
P2PFoundation.net, we basically recognize three emerging paradigms,
three emerging social movements in the world. They are growing
everywhere, from spirituality to business to politics and to the
following: open and free. It is easy to explain because if you want to
peer-produce, if you want to create value through self-aggregation,
through sharing and cooperation, what do you need? You need raw
material. If that raw material is not open and free, you cannot work
together. This creates, in almost every field, free software, open
source, open access publishing, open education text books, open reiki,
open yoga, open [inaudible]. It creates a wide variety of social
initiatives in every field, stressing the need for open and free raw
material. The second aspect is participation, which is basically "how
can we design social systems?" And the third one would have been
commons-oriented output. That is it.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <br /><br /><b>Chair:</b>&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;I really
want to ask you some questions. I will probably need to limit myself to
one because that is just so incredibly important and needs so much
reflection. Can you relate what you said to the telecom's industry? I
know it is an exceptionally hard question. I believe you can do it.<br /><br /><b>Michel:</b>&nbsp;&nbsp;
&nbsp;Actually, Lee asked me some questions about the telecom. I used to be
the e-business strategy manager or Belgacom five years ago. I told him
that I was no longer the expert he thought I was. But, my answer would
be the following: the basic problem is about abundance and scarcity.
You cannot have a market when you have abundance, therefore, the telcos
will never build fiber because they can make money only once while they
are building it. Once you have it, there is such an overflow and such
an abundance that you cannot market it after that. I think one of the
answers I gave you is you cannot absolutely expect the telcos to ever
build a fiber infrastructure. They will never do it. It is just totally
counter the institutional and commercial interest that they have.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <br /><br />So
how do you do that? I think <a href="http://ecommmedia.com/2008/own-the-network.php">Brough Turner</a>,
I am not sure I pronounced the name right, gave kind of an answer to
that. We have three models of production now. It is very important to
know that. We have the private way, companies building and selling. We
have the public way, centralized planning, public provisioning. But, we
also have the direct social aggregation, the peer production, way. The
wireless commons is an example of civil society taking up itself the
task of building bottom-up through distributed capital this kind of
task.<br /><br /><b>Chair:</b>&nbsp;&nbsp; We need to do lunch tomorrow. Please thank Michael Bauwens. </div>]]>
        
    </content>
<feedburner:origLink>http://www.ecommmedia.com/blog/2008/04/michel-bauwens-ecomm2008-keynote.html</feedburner:origLink></entry>

<entry>
    <title>Keynote: "Defining the New Singularity" - Transcript</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/eCommBlog/~3/271634351/mark-rolston-ecomm2008-keynote.html" />
    <id>tag:www.ecommmedia.com,2008:/blog//6.174</id>

    <published>2008-04-16T18:32:02Z</published>
    <updated>2008-04-16T19:06:23Z</updated>

    <summary><![CDATA[ Transcript below from Mark's keynote at the inagural eComm 2008. The corresponding slides can be found here.Chair:&nbsp;&nbsp; We are now moving off the lightning talks and we're moving to a 20-minute key note. We are moving to a trio...]]></summary>
    <author>
        <name>Lee S Dryburgh</name>
        <uri>http://www.ss7.net</uri>
    </author>
    
        <category term="eComm2008" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
        <category term="keynote" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
    <category term="android" label="Android" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="branding" label="branding" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="design" label="design" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="innovation" label="innovation" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="iphone" label="iPhone" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://www.ecommmedia.com/blog/">
        <![CDATA[<span class="mt-enclosure mt-enclosure-image"><img alt="eComm2008_Mark_Rolston2.jpg" src="http://www.ecommmedia.com/blog/Images/eComm2008_Mark_Rolston2.jpg" class="mt-image-left" style="margin: 0pt 20px 20px 0pt; float: left;" height="500" width="332" /></span> <div>Transcript below from Mark's <a href="http://ecommmedia.com/2008/defining-the-new-singularity.php">keynote</a> at the inagural eComm 2008. The corresponding slides can be found<a href="http://ecommmedia.com/2008/downloads/slides/day1/26_Mark_Rolston_eComm2008.pdf"> here</a>.<br /><br /><b>Chair:</b>&nbsp;&nbsp; We are now moving off the lightning talks and we're moving to a 20-minute key note. We are moving to a trio of talks based around design. We have Frog Design, we have Bug Labs, we have Yuvee and we have Mark Rolston, who is the Chief Creative Officer of the legendary Frog Design. And I think that Mark is going to be speaking about what problems that we are here to solve, what the value proposition is for consumers and what the drivers are. So please welcome Mark.<br /><b><br />Mark Rolston:</b>&nbsp;&nbsp; Thank you. So, I think that I am going to slow things down a little bit at least. I got 20 minutes to burn here and I probably do not have 20 minutes material. [Laughing]&nbsp; I was telling Lee [Dryburgh] I feel like a little bit like a fish out of water with some of these topics [previous talks]. What I bring is more of a message from a user experience perspective in a little less industry specific look at things. But perhaps that's something important today.<br /><br />First of all, rule of thumb in what I have to say. Change is inevitable and it is an important idea to us and that is the business we are in. We are either an enabler, a catalyst or at times, a provocateur on this basic idea with industries. The two important parts of this idea are changed in what largely I hear everyone talking about today is in terms of making things better. But there is another kind of change which is different. I want to talk a little bit about that. And the way to frame that story up a little bit is to first talk about maybe the life of the product or "it". This is the singularity that I am referring to. And this mental model that is so critical in a product's success and the life span of a product.<br /><br />So, if we start in the beginning of a product's life, there are some sort of inspiration. Something gets it going. It comes from nothing and becomes something. We are not sure what it is, what is "it."&nbsp; I want to dwell on this word "it" because I think that that is a critical idea in the minds of consumers.<br /><br />A new model emerges when we have that. We may not know quite what it is at that point. The author of that may give it a name but the public does not know quite what to think about it. And over time, it becomes "it", a way that a single word might express the common understanding of what this thing is in an industry. Even then, it may undergo some evolution. It may change course. It may actually bifurcate. It may become multiple things. And even better, it may come in collision with another market with its own perception of what it is. What is interesting about that is quite often, more often than not, this product in many of these industries, I am going to come around with this industry, is still beholden to that original mental model, that original "it."&nbsp; The way the world thinks of it and it ends up being a box. It ends up of being a limiting conceptual boundary for what it is. So change becomes beholden to this singularity. Almost likely, the astrophysical phenomenon, it is sucking in every attempt to escape out of that reality.<br /><br />I will give you an example. I will try to be a little bit more concrete here. The car. Do not take me to task for the genealogy here. I took some exceptions. But the automobile, it starts with a basic model hundred years ago or more than that. Even through all of the innovation, what we call innovation with the automobile, it still is basically, even with a number of iterations, and this is just one manufacturer,&nbsp; the number of iterations that we have created still basically is the same thing. The way we buy it, the way we use it, the value proposition and the way that people understand this product is still the same thing. So, that leaves me to this industry. Sublime statement here. We unfortunately, are trying to apply that kind of thinking to a model like this.<br /><br />I want to introduce this idea and where this might be going. We have the telephone. I am going to focus on the handset itself. I know that a lot of folks have been talking about the services behind it but I want to talk about what the users gets and the way they focus their attention on what "it" is. And, that is often through the device that they hold in their hands. The physical and functional expressive reality and not all of the business behind that.<br /><br />That telephone, while simple in its initial incarnation is actually beholden to a lot of functions. We sort of plugged in all these different things; all of a sudden "it" is now challenged by a lot of different players and a lot of different mental models. Those things are born out of other realities or other sources for what these mental models, you might say interface, the market approach, the technical realities, the boundaries. Just the thinking that defines these products. And all of the sudden, the phone is incredibly challenged. And those things all come from different corners of the world that you might say. And again, you could look at these six ways to a hundred but hopefully this gets the basic idea across.<br /><br />In the end with this happening, the phone ceases to be a phone. It ceases to be the "it" that it was originally born with. Why is that?&nbsp; What we are facing here is that software is allowing for the product's ever shifting identity. That original product, the thing that we hold becomes almost a non-object to this dynamic reality that sits within that. It is almost just like a hole in the world, a portal that allows something dynamic to come through. "It" can essentially be anything you want it to be. And that, in a way that we normally think about products is really challenging. We want to design something with a sort of singular identity where everybody says that this is what it is supposed to be and what happens when "it" becomes some anything that you want it to be?<br /><br />So, we move from a literal, from a design perspective, from a product creation challenge. Something where the form, and function, the story is easy to tell, it is literal. You can almost look at something as an alien from another planet and over some exercise,grok what it was suppose to be doing for that culture, for those people, to a more abstract relationship between form and function.<br /><br />The physical object of course looses its functional identity. What it is instead, as I said is a portal. The physical object does not become meaningless, it takes on new roles. Here, it is fashion and it is self-identity. Like what people have been talking about portals, this physical object becomes another part of my outfit or my dress but it is not what it was. In that, it was at one point an expressive way of identifying what it does. At this point, it is not, it is instead something that is just part of my outfit. What it does is a dynamic reality beneath that. So, what are the drivers of this change?&nbsp; Technology easily,democratization of these tools, these types of platforms allow folks like us in a direct idea relationship and folks like you to move more quickly from idea to execution for the concept itself is that much closer to the execution. And therefore, the opportunity to make a radical change to escape that sort of singularity is much easier.<br /><br />The ecosystem is driving that. In other words, a product does not exist in isolation anymore. We have a lot of discussions about this today. This I think is one of the most fascinating things and as a design consultancy, one of the most difficult aspects. There is less and less opportunity to create that sort of singular statement that almost a mixture of political, emotional, fashion statement in this one gesture. Folks, we have been around since 1969 and we very practiced to that. But the new reality in making products is a much more systemic challenge.<br /><br />Form and input, I think that for whatever reason, there has been a culmination of these radical ideas that for many years just floated around in Power Points in the back rooms of large companies and small. They were tossed around inside the design firms but they never went anywhere. But one or two products managed to escape and that leads to the next two points.<br /><br />Competitive landscape, just at the time that that was hitting critical mass, you have some players getting weaker and some new players are entering the market namely this one.<br /><br />This is a shot of the opening sales day in New York for the iPhone. And when customers demonstrate a willingness to accept these new models in the industry dog piles, then you have this opportunity to truly move from the current model or the current singularity to something new. And that is the opportunity in front of us. "It" is changing. "It" is becoming something else. This industry has an opportunity to seize that moment and to define something new.<br /><br /><b>Chair:</b>&nbsp;&nbsp; Any questions?<br /><b><br />Audience:&nbsp;</b>&nbsp; So, when you are looking something like the iPhone which has grown tremendously, what is "it"? What do you see the "it" is?<br /><br /><b>Mark Rolston:</b>&nbsp;&nbsp; I think that if we over simply the story, it is the new computer, you might say. "The PC is dead, long live the PC" or you could throw in "The phone is dead, long live the phone."&nbsp; But the two were colliding. Apple's essentially, if you watched to SDK release last week, they essentially pulled - some of our folks inside called the Windows '95 moment. They unified this development platform, they have opened it up and I think that the iPhone, you are going to quickly see, is going to move away from being phone to being sort of ubiquitous, mobile portal into your life. Telephony may actually be a very minor feature in sort of the net use that occurs on the phone. I might even say that it might even end up sub 10% if you measure across the customers. They are going to be doing everything that they do on PCs today. And what has been so beautiful about the PC is that it is agnostic. It does not give a crap on what you do with it. You do what you want to do on that. An invention, a need and even random or just whimsical desire can be expressed on that device and there is no business model to get in the way. And I think that the iPhone just jumped into that pond and we are going to see a lot of interesting invention.<br /><br /><b>Chair:</b>&nbsp;&nbsp; Mark, were you here when I opened up today?<br /><br /><b>Mark Rolston:</b>&nbsp;&nbsp; No.<br /><br /><b>Chair:</b>&nbsp;&nbsp; Because, you have actually echoed what I said about the telephone is dead. You have echoed many things. So that was cool. Can you comment on Android?&nbsp; Any general comments on Android?<br /><br /><b>Mark Rolston:</b>&nbsp;&nbsp; Android takes what one company is doing as a provocateur and makes it wide. Android is the antidote of what Apple has presented. Apple is going to go off and do that on their own but the whole world cannot get behind that model. The last time that they did that, we had Microsoft becoming a giant gorilla and Apple actually I think will be a lot less friendly as a Gorilla than even Microsoft. And so, I think that Android is a fantastic antidote to end up. We are actually doing a lot of development with android so we are incredibly behind it.<br /><br />To add, what is really fascinating about that and I cannot name people, but a lot of players who have no business in this industry, they are not about communications and not about telephony but they are just about consumer features and consumer products in a broad sense are using that and some normalization of platforms to jump in and make products that are going to fly right in the face of people like Samsung, Motorola and the carriers. It is a fantastic time. You are going to see that real soon.<br /><br /><b>Chair:</b>&nbsp;&nbsp; So, it means that the phone is no longer a phone and the television is no longer a television. That is just a terrible battle. We talk about convergence but that is where we do not know what the damn thing is or what it wants to be because it can be potentially everything and voice becomes secondary anyway.<br /><br />It is a computer, the iPhone anyway. So we are still calling a phone. Do you think that in twenty years time we will be talking about telephones?<br /><b><br />Mark Rolston:</b>&nbsp;&nbsp; We might use the word but the word would have ceased to become what it meant. We may use it just to describe it in its form factor.<br /><br /><b>Chair:</b>&nbsp;&nbsp; What if you spend most of your time shopping on or looking up information and the only place of telephony...<br />&nbsp;<br /><b>Mark Rolston:</b>&nbsp;&nbsp; Again, the word becomes sort of a meaningless carrier to that. We may come up with another word. That actually is a brand challenge and that the [inaudible] to how that is accepted. I do not think that it is something you plan on or can talk about with any accuracy. It is like fashion.<br /><br /><b>Audience:&nbsp;</b>&nbsp; A question from the back since you are talking about fashion. We are still talking about "it," right?&nbsp; There is just this thing that I have got in my pocket or the guy&nbsp; [James Body] has got and all these things that he is going to security with.<br /><br />What do you see as the future of wearable computers and everyone's got this bluetooth thing. When are we going to become borgs to some extent because everyone got this little bluetooth devices in their pockets. It seems to me that people at some point are going to stop wanting to carry these things and just wear clothing or something that even more of a statement, I guess.<br /><b><br />Mark Rolston:</b>&nbsp;&nbsp; I think that is easily true. But that is far enough out there. That would be a talk with the futurist rather than a designer and I am what you call a near futurist, you might say. So, I am focused on what we can actually accomplish within a reasonable amount of time. I think absolutely that a lot of sociological change has to happen. We still identify with a point of contact even with devices just like with humans. So holding something in our hands, is very meaningful even if its meaning that I try to imply is actually being driven by lots of outside forces and outside systems. There is an infliction point there, that singularity that we like to have in our hands and we will define as a single thing even though it represents many things.<br /><br /><b>Audience:</b>&nbsp;&nbsp; I am from UK and the average number of mobile devices and subscriptions per person is 1.6. That is an interesting number because it is going up. And I think that in Italy, the number I think is above 2. Most people I see with iPhones have at least one other phone as well. And I am so quite interested in what you are thinking about. The fact that people will have multiple devices, in my belief is because they are cheap, they are differentiated and so you might have an iPhone but you will have a phone as well perhaps.<br /><br /><b>Mark Rolston:&nbsp;</b>&nbsp; Sure, I think that two ways to answer that is, one, iPhone is a baby. It is not what it will become and I am not here to defend the iPhone. I think that the point is that looking at the phone as just phone is what is about to change or what is about to blow up. So people may own multiples but each of those may represent different modulations of that dynamic reality. That sort of hole and space that is possible or they may actually intentionally from a fashionable perspective and I say fashion in a broad way, narrow their functionality. If you look at what Apple did with the iPod, sorry about that Apple again example, but they narrowed the offering there to tell a simpler story. And that in essence is sort of a fashionable way of addressing the product's identity. It is not a technically bound thing or it is not a market thing but it is the way of crystallizing the value that they want to define in that product. And I think that people having multiple handsets is a similar type of phenomenon.<br /><br /><b>Audience:</b>&nbsp;&nbsp; I guess the question over here to your left. Could Nokia pull this off?&nbsp; Nokia having 40% of whatever or the market.<br /><br /><b>Mark Rolston:</b>&nbsp;&nbsp; Nokia certainly could pull it off. But I think Nokia with their platforms is a little too subscribed to an agnostic take on value. And, that is not how you give birth to a market that is how you follow-up. And so, the market is too young right now and what you need is a lot of high value and highly contextual applications that say, "This is the way to go" and what I have seen so far in the touch platform that they are developing and the existing platform is that the experience is shabby. It is kind of cobbled together and the market is growing out of that. It looks like the technology underneath and it should not. This is too late for that. Those things will be challenged.<br /><br />The agnosticism is a great growth stage but you cannot end up there so Nokia needs to grow out of that. I think that they have the capacity to but they are also slaved to the success of that early platform. All the developers are going to bitch and whine if they try and move the direction that I am suggesting.<br /><br />Microsoft faces that, right?&nbsp; That many PC platforms, that many variations of the PC, that many application developers, it is hard for Microsoft to make a bold escape from their own destiny. Nokia is a smaller version of that, easily.<br /><br /><b>Chair:</b>&nbsp;&nbsp; Thank you very much Mark.<br /><br /></div>]]>
        
    </content>
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<entry>
    <title>A Personal Clarification on eComm and Telco 2.0 Conference Agendas</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/eCommBlog/~3/271493422/ecomm-telco20-conferences.html" />
    <id>tag:www.ecommmedia.com,2008:/blog//6.173</id>

    <published>2008-04-16T14:27:02Z</published>
    <updated>2008-04-16T18:31:37Z</updated>

    <summary>Andy who along with his PR firm Comunicano played a leading role in helping ensure the success of the inaugural eComm 2008 just pointed me to a post of his were he draws a quick distinction between the eComm conference...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>Lee S Dryburgh</name>
        <uri>http://www.ss7.net</uri>
    </author>
    
        <category term="miscellaneous" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
    <category term="conferences" label="conferences" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="ecomm" label="eComm" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="telco20" label="Telco2.0" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://www.ecommmedia.com/blog/">
        <![CDATA[Andy who along with his PR firm Comunicano played a leading role in helping ensure the success of the inaugural eComm 2008 just pointed me to a <a href="http://andyabramson.blogs.com/voipwatch/2008/04/conferences-are.html">post</a> of his were he draws a quick distinction between the eComm conference and the Telco 2.0 conference. I hit comment and began to type a quicky reply to provide my opinion as well as clarification but when I hit around nine hundred words, I figured it was too long for reply and so decided to post it here instead.<br /><br />The first focus of eComm is innovation because the telecoms innovation landscape has changed with 2007 having been the perfect storm to initiate a new conference on this topic (700 MHz, Android, iPhone Etc.). The telecoms world has changed and there is also a new game underplay. Specifically communications innovation is being democratized and at the same time for the first time ever the mobile handset is opening up in a serious way to edge innovation (plus telecom platforms are moving to being more open like Internet platforms). The combination of the two is terribly exciting and that is largely what we are focusing on. Telecom becomes software, the "phone" becomes the "computer" and the application landscape that flourishes is quite simply mind-blowing. Nothing will be the same again. The opportunities are exceptional. We are just at the start of that and eComm plans to track, promote and highlight this new era in communications. I can't wait.<br /><br />I greatly respect what the <a href="http://www.telco2.net/">Telco 2.0</a> lot (<a href="http://www.stlpartners.com/">STL</a>) are doing. It's a job that needs to be done. They are holding operators (and vendors) by the hand and doing their best such that as many as possible can walk thru the storm instead of fall off the sides along the way. They do a tremendous amount of <a href="http://www.stlpartners.com/telco2_research-analysis.php">quality research</a>. They really are world class and the work they have been doing on the double-sided business model is exceptional. But their first focus is business models. This is not surprising as it is what carriers/vendors and their shareholders are having problems with. With current business models their pain will only increase whereas with the types of business models being developed by the Telco 2.0 lot, quite a few will prosper instead. I'm also an avid subscriber to the <a href="http://www.telco2.net/blog/">Telco 2.0 blog</a> and newsletter!<br /><br />So roughly speaking Telco 2.0 is business model innovation first and eComm is technological innovation first.<br /><br />Last month at eComm I was honored to have <a href="http://ecommmedia.com/speakers/martin_geddes/">Martin</a> who is a Chief Analyst at Telco 2.0 open up day three with a <a href="http://ecommmedia.com/2008/telco-20-re-thinking-the-phone.php">keynote</a>. I was so impressed with his talk that I've asked ITconversations.com to distribute it (in due course it will be - stay tuned). The reason Martin was invited aside from being loved by the eComm community (he was rated as a top speaker, was on the 2008 advisory board and is very supportive of the community even to the point of helping sell tickets), is that he had something exceptional to say in terms of innovation around telecom business models. My extremely crude take on it was that the current relationship between consumers, telecom operators, over the top providers is not healthy and is set to get worse at the current trajectory. Creative business models, in particular the two-sided model will restore balance to the ecology such that all can prosper together. Their research into how shipping atoms has evolved and using that as a reflection point for moving bits was exceptional material. So it's not that we don't care about business models (we even had Bob Frankston speak on the topic), but it's low priority unless there is something exceptionally innovative that can impact the whole innovation landscape. With the Telco 2.0 lot, I'd guess that technological innovation has a low priority unless there is something exceptional that appears there (for example so disruptive it affects business models).<br /><br />Martin was also "thrown" onto the "<a href="http://ecommmedia.com/2008/what-will-drive-wireless-innovation.php">What Will Drive Wireless Innovation?</a>" panel just before it started with no warning! The panel also featured Skype, Vodafone, Google, Nokia/Trolltech and Christopher Allen (who initiated the iPhone Dev Camp). Martin was a great addition and did very well, particularly for someone who got added on the spot without prior warning! Martin helped open up the panel discussion by stating that the iPhone would impact the innovation landscape not because of the touch UI Etc. but because it broke free from the current business model (it reversed the current handset subsidy model, such that the handset manufacturer receives money back rather than the consumer). He also played the provocateur by saying that it was changes in business models that would drive innovation!<br /><br />So trying to make a dichotomy that Telco 2.0 is about "big company perspective" while eComm is about "emerging start-ups" is untrue. We had Skype, Microsoft and Google keynote and ordinary sessions from the likes of Orange, Vodafone, Intel and British Telecom (i.e. clearly not start-ups). We don't care if a company is an international corporation or two men in a garage; what we care about is whether they are driving forwards communications innovation or reducing the barriers to communications innovation. That is the benchmark.<br /><br />The distinction as outlined is that Telco 2.0 puts its emphasis on business model innovation whereas eComm puts its emphasis on technological innovation. Any overlap is really at the fringes. Rather there is a great interplay between the two, i.e. the two are complimentary. As one can imagine larger corporations tend to have more interest in business models than smaller companies and smaller companies tend to be the most ahead-of-the-curve in terms of innovation, so from that perspective, I see where Andy is coming from.<br /><br />The ultimate telecom conference on Earth would be an eComm and a Telco 2.0 co-hosted. Anyway, I hope I clarified things!<br /> ]]>
        
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<entry>
    <title>Introduction: Hello and Welcome - Transcript</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/eCommBlog/~3/270632309/lee-dryburgh-ecomm2008-introduction.html" />
    <id>tag:www.ecommmedia.com,2008:/blog//6.172</id>

    <published>2008-04-15T09:15:29Z</published>
    <updated>2008-04-15T10:58:44Z</updated>

    <summary>In the transcript of Jonathan's talk which was put up yesterday, Jonathan made reference to my introduction twice. Now that two people have asked what I said, I thought for the sake of transparency I'd put up a transcript. My...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>Lee S Dryburgh</name>
        <uri>http://www.ss7.net</uri>
    </author>
    
        <category term="eComm2008" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
    <category term="ecomm2008" label="eComm2008" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="introduction" label="introduction" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://www.ecommmedia.com/blog/">
        <![CDATA[<span class="mt-enclosure mt-enclosure-image"><img alt="eComm2008_Lee_Dryburgh3.jpg" src="http://www.ecommmedia.com/blog/Images/eComm2008_Lee_Dryburgh3.jpg" class="mt-image-right" style="margin: 0pt 0pt 20px 20px; float: right;" height="332" width="333" /></span><div>In the transcript of <a href="http://ecommmedia.com/blog/2008/04/jonathan-christensen-ecomm2008-keynote.html">Jonathan's talk</a> which was put up yesterday, <a href="http://ecommmedia.com/speakers/jonathan_christensen/">Jonathan</a> made reference to my introduction twice. Now that two people have asked what I said, I thought for the sake of transparency I'd put up a transcript. <br /><br /><a href="http://ecommmedia.com/speakers/lee_s_dryburgh/">My introduction</a> was written in the car on the way to the venue that morning (only a four mile trip) so it is far from polished, but the gist is certainly correct.<b><br /><br />Lee:</b>&nbsp;&nbsp; Good Morning and Welcome. I am glad that so many of you could all make it. It seems we have a full house. Which is not a bad start to a new event.<br /><br />It's a special day. It's a day when a line is put in the sand. And we say. We've had enough. We've had enough lack of innovation.<br /><br />The telecom innovation space has been stagnant for at least a decade and the opportunities during this time have grown so great, that we need forum, a community.<br /><br />What we want to do is to gather like-minded people. People who are interested in enabling, expanding, and pushing forwards innovation around the field of communications.<br /><br />We've already had the VoIP revolution. It's done, now it is time to move on. VoIP brought us the tools to democratize voice. But it is only that - a tool. Alone it is neither profitable nor exciting. And don't take my words for it; look at how consumer traction has been so poor. And that is for a reason - quite simply it does not meet any new user needs.<br /><br />We need to build something far more changing - Something further reaching - Something far more transformative.<br /><br />The telephone itself is dead long term. What replaces it - is a device -&nbsp; which combines content, information access, entertainment, ecommerce as well as ever expanding modalities of communications. Voice probably takes a secondary position in that multi-modality suite. So we are talking about a device which is clearly not a phone.<br /><br />I'm not sure of what words we will use to describe this new platform. I've got a non-sexy description, that I use - a "relationship lifecycle management" device. I don't think marketing will like that. Relationships going forwards become the number one foci. You can kind of see it this way - the WWW has been about connecting pages. The future is in connecting people, not pages.<br /><br />So I repeat the telephone is dead. That was a hard wired application. It makes no sense today. It's very primitive, distractive, cumbersome. Rather the replacement is something that understands your social life. It looks out for your best interests. But that is a long term vision. A socially aware, small form factor (or wearable) piece of networked computing equipment - which is used to discover, search, share and transact across the planes of what we now call information, content, ecommerce and communications.<br /><br />I said what we call now - because they will become so fused, that it gets hard to distinguish one from the other. When information, content, ecommerce and communications fuse on the device, we are in a new world, entirely. It's exceptionally exciting and there is so much opportunity there.<br /><br />But we're not there yet. The last 12 months have shown promising direction though. The iPhone was released and it was tightly locked. But a high school kid spent the summer cracking it. Hacking iPhones went critical and Apple was forced to open it up and release an SDK. We're talking about a phone that runs a computer operating system.<br /><br />The FCC stated that the next block of radio spectrum would only be allocated to an open network. Google announced first that it was willing to spend billions towards such open spectrum. And we're talking about a search company.<br /><br />Google also released Android, a new open mobile phone operating system. Another 30+ companies joined the Open Handset Alliance including T-Mobile and Sprint. Even Verizon, and AT&amp;T made PR noise about becoming open networks.<br /><br />So quite clearly the landscape is shifting. The power of innovation is shifting towards the edges. Operators are loosing control of innovation. Their centralised model does not work any longer. What they need to do is to facilitate edge innovation. To build winning ecosystems around it.<br /><br />This conference, has gathered those interested in innovating around communications. We want to move it out of the stagnant space and we want to prosper from the opportunities.<br /><br />On that note, I wish to introduce my co-chair, Dr Norman Lewis who was the former Director of Technology Research for Orange-France Telecom until 2007. He is now the Chief Strategic Officer of a new startup, called Wireless Grids Corporation.<br /><br /><span class="mt-enclosure mt-enclosure-image"><img alt="eComm2008_Norman_Lewis2.jpg" src="http://www.ecommmedia.com/blog/Images/eComm2008_Norman_Lewis2.jpg" class="mt-image-left" style="margin: 0pt 20px 20px 0pt; float: left;" height="409" width="333" /></span><b>Norman:</b>&nbsp;&nbsp; Good morning everybody and a very warm welcome. Thank you Lee. I'm not going to take a lot of time, I just wanted to make one simple point and it is this. I thought this morning when I got up why go to another bloody conference? <br /><br />There are so many of these damn things and we all traipse around the world. I think the reason why we are here is because of who is here. It's not just the speakers it's the audience. <br /><br />What I am interested in during the next three days is networking with all of you. To really talk about innovation, about how we can take this enormous opportunity that we have in front of us, how we can translate this into real new applications, products, businesses, entrepreneurship, Etc. <br /><br />I think that is what this conference is about. It's about really making a difference in the real world, really seeing the opportunities, exploring the opportunities that now exist in how we can reinvent voice, how we can reinvent telephony&nbsp; and communications. <br /><br />If that is your objective I think it will be a very productive three days.<br /><br />I am not going to say anymore. You will hear more from me later today and throughout the rest of the conference. Very welcome, hope you enjoy it, thankyou.<br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div>]]>
        
    </content>
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<entry>
    <title>Keynote: "Ten Years of Internet Communications ('98-'08)" - Transcript</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/eCommBlog/~3/270141008/jonathan-christensen-ecomm2008-keynote.html" />
    <id>tag:www.ecommmedia.com,2008:/blog//6.171</id>

    <published>2008-04-14T16:30:56Z</published>
    <updated>2008-04-14T18:34:43Z</updated>

    <summary> Transcript below from Jonathan's opening keynote at the inagural eComm 2008. The corresponding slides can be found here. As a side note the complete comference video and audio is pretty much ready to go but a few minor niggles...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>Lee S Dryburgh</name>
        <uri>http://www.ss7.net</uri>
    </author>
    
        <category term="eComm2008" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
        <category term="keynote" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
    <category term="future" label="future" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="history" label="history" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="innovation" label="innovation" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="mobile" label="mobile" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="skype" label="skype" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="voip" label="VoIP" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://www.ecommmedia.com/blog/">
        <![CDATA[<span class="mt-enclosure mt-enclosure-image"><img alt="eComm2008_Jonathan_Christensen.jpg" src="http://www.ecommmedia.com/blog/images/eComm2008_Jonathan_Christensen.jpg" class="mt-image-left" style="margin: 0pt 20px 20px 0pt; float: left;" height="500" width="332" /></span> <div>Transcript below from Jonathan's opening <a href="http://ecommmedia.com/2008/skype-ten-years-of-internet-communications.php">keynote</a> at the inagural <a href="http://ecommmedia.com/2008">eComm 2008</a>. The corresponding slides can be found <a href="http://ecommmedia.com/2008/downloads/slides/day1/2_Jonathan_Christensen_eComm2008.ppt">here</a>. As a side note the complete comference video and audio is pretty much ready to go but a few minor niggles are holding it up.<br /><br /><b>Chair:</b>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; We are going to start this conference with Jonathan Christensen who is the general manager of audio and video at Skype. Jonathan is going to kindly warm this conference up by speaking about the history of IP communications over the past 10 years. So, I would like you to welcome Jonathan please.<br /><br />(Applause)<br /><br /><b>Jonathan:</b>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Thank you. So, I am going to try and give the 30-minute version of his 15-minute intro. I am Jonathan and I have been with Skype for about 2 years. I lead up our audio-video research and development that is spread across a couple of continents and a lot of time zones. I'm building world class software that we hope for next generation communications. I am just going to give a little bit of an overview to talk about the last 10 years from my perspective. The things that I have seen, the major inflection points in Voice over IP and then hopefully try to move in to the "what's next?" stuff'.<br /><br />A lot of people get credit for the first VoIP instance. But I think that around the industry, most people give credit to VocalTec and their Internet phone for being the first usable network-based Voice over IP client and this was a desktop phenomenon. Then came a lot of people rushing into the market once the concept was proven, to build gateways. And, we are going to talk about these in a little bit. Then, there were some carriers that came along and they established the gateways and POPs and they connected it to the PSTN and they created a market for moving VoIP minutes around.<br /><br />And along with that, there are a bunch of other lower level innovations that started happening. Companies like Global IP Sound building next generation Codecs that were Internet aware that offered wide band and that did interesting things like that, sort of changing the nature of the communications a little bit.<br /><br />And some use cases started to gell, first there was this PC to PC, this kind of the ham radio users. Jeff Pulver, a name that is sort of synonymous with Voice over IP and the whole VoIP revolution was a ham radio operator in his youth. He clung on to this idea when he first saw it and he saw that there was something really interesting here.<br /><br />The next use case that really drove the early days of VoIP was tandem trunking. I would go into some detail about tandem trunking and what is interesting and what is not so interesting about it.<br /><br />Along with that a couple of mainstream apps emerged, you had Netmeeting from Microsoft - how many people in the audience ever used Netmeeting? How many people in the audience have ever used Skype? Well, Netmeeting was first introduced in the late 90's. It went through three revs and it was last updated in 1999. I was involved in that work at Microsoft. Amazingly, that application is still widely deployed and used especially inside large organizations today without a single update to the basic application in almost a decade.<br /><br />The other use case that started to emerge was two-staged dialing. This is a notion that you call a number, usually an 800 number, you enter a pin and it gives you access to the network to make cheap calls. Most of that was built on top of VoIP infrastructure because at the middle of the call, we could use as tandem trunking and you could avoid a bunch of the cost. So how this worked in the early days is, if you are on the West Coast here and you wanted to make a call to the East Coast, your call would be connected to a class 5 switch or line side switch and that call would be routed to a tandem switch - and this is an over simplification of course - and the call would go over TDM, a traditional network to another tandem switch to class 5 switch and the phone on the East Coast would ring.<br /><br />VoIP tandem switching replaced that center part with VoIP gateways. And the interesting thing about this is that it really was the death of physical distance. But much more than that, it became the death of the business model behind distance. You have some bandwidth efficency and that was kind of interesting. The local exchange carrier could avoid the LD carriers along haul lines and that was kind of interesting. The incumbent long distance player could then avoid the termination fees at the LEC because the call did not arrive over long distance or telephony service but it arrived over an information service that was unregulated and this is a sort of regulatory trick. And what we really saw was a whole era of arbitrage and many would say inferior service.<br /><br />Suddenly, you are transcoding or re-encoding using the network that maybe was not suited for real time communications and all sorts of things like that. Vagarious of the network that were introducing inferior qualities.<br /><br />Most of the time, these offerings were offered under alternative brands. Some of the big guys did not want to marginalize their brand. You could hear a pin drop or their brand had been around for a couple of decades and in some cases, 100 years. And, they did not want that to be associated with these services so they came up with wacky names and wacky marketing schemes and prepaid calling cards and what not. So, those services were marginally interesting if you were trying to save money and if you are a college kid or that kind of thing.<br /><br />So moving on, the introduction of consumer VoIP really happened when Jeff Pulver and some other industry luminaries started getting together and thinking about what they could do here. In the early inspirations this "minex" thing that Jeff got together was the idea that minutes were commodities and they could be traded. He was a trader at Cantor Fitzgerald early in his career. He thought, "Hey! There is something here that we could build this trading desk for these minutes and we could get something going there." He met Jeffrey Citron in that process and he was also toying with a thing called Free World Dial-up. How many people are familiar with Free World Dial-up? Pretty much, that is remarkable. I was a user. I had a one-port gateway installed and people made calls over my Seattle local line and those calls were flat rate billed. So I did not get billed for them and other people out of LATA [Local Access and Transport Area] got free calls on my infrastructure. It is a pretty interesting little application but did not really scale. It was hard to set up and what not.<br /><br />The Komodo was an interesting device, the first little ATA that enabled this Free World Dialup scenario. Jan Fandriato built this little company and I like to joke that it turned any perfectly good analog phone into an inferior IP handset. Cisco acquired Komodo and really did a lot to validate the market. Suddenly, people were like, "What just happened?" Out of this mix, out of this soup, Vonage was born and the Voice over Broadband revolution began.<br /><br />Vonage really set the early pace. They had lots and lots of cash, they were extremely aggressive and they went to market direct to the consumer. The long distance players entered to get into local service markets with unregulated services. We saw offerings like this cropping up. And then the MSO's, the cable companies responded. Generally, all of the people who entered into this arena were the people who did not have anything to lose. They did not have something to cannibalize.<br /><br />So what did we get out of all this? Well, we got these attractive pricing plans I guess, these bundles, great savings - maybe I am not sure. New features, well you have call log, voice mail and a whole bunch of stuff that I think does not have much to do with the fact that it was Voice over IP. And many of these features existed before these services were launched. Still, it is a question like, what really happened here? My hypothesis is that for and as Lee [Dryburgh] said, it is a sort of foregone conclusion that the phone is dead. This is another foot in the grave, another beginning to the end. So the incumbents of course come in and they matched the prices and they start up a price war and they do that on TDM and some mash up with some web stuff if you want it. The landline telephony game becomes cheap, boring, stagnant and at the same time losing the mobile.<br /><br />A couple of years ago I called my mom. She has had the same phone number since I was little kid. I got the recording, "This phone has been disconnected." And I thought, "What happened?" We have had this phone number since I was a little kid. So I wrote her an email and she responded and said, "What do I need that for? The only phone I use anymore is my mobile phone." When your mom moves into that segment, things are changing for sure. I think that that is a good sign that the commoditization of that market is total and complete at this point. And I think that the other thing to look at is, where is the next wave of innovation is going to come from?<br /><br />I will go into some more of that but one of the interesting things that came out of this, it was not really by design, was VoIP export networks that started to crop up. People would order a couple of Vonage sets or choose your provider. And they would put one in a box and they would send it overseas and those two sets would be set up with the same numbers. So suddenly, you have phones ringing in India on a Silicon Valley number, right? And, they could call their relatives and create these ad hoc networks within a community and essentially export the numbers.<br /><br />This is important because this is really one of the final nails in the death of distance, right? Not only does it destroy distance with the Internet being the pipe that is carrying this traffic but it also totally fragments the numbers. The numbering plans have really been used by the operators to discriminate both on price, politically and geo-physically. All of those things are just part of the old world and the numbering plan is a big part of keeping it all together. This again is further deteriorating the traditional voice business.<br /><br />In 2003, I was leaving Microsoft, I was standing on a piece of land in California that I was thinking about moving to and I got a call from Jeff Pulver. I had called him in a beautiful sunny afternoon. I totally remember it. And he said, "Hello Jonathan. What is up?" This is like June of 2003. I said, "Jeff, we have to build a client that is super lightweight and simple and just works. It gets over the NAT traversal issues. It just works. People can just download this thing and make it work." And Jeff said, "Well you know, Free World Dialup works and the clients are getting better all the time and there are third party providers who are billions." I said, "Jeff, Jeff, Jeff, look, it is way too hard to use. We just need to build the client that works."<br /><br />A few weeks later, a friend of mine, Allan Duric who was working at Global IP Sound at that time got me an early beta account, pre-release account of Skype and the lights went on. And that was in the summer of 2003. By Fall VON, there were 500,000 registrations. I was in Boston and everybody was talking about Skype. And most people were pretty angry about it especially the "SIP die-hards". Skype had made some early noise about, "Oh well, we do not use SIP because we do not need to and that really ticked off people who have been working in this space for a while.<br /><br />Let us switch gears a little bit and talk about IM as the foundation of this next wave. In 1999, I was in Helsinki or Stockholm or some place like that, I was working for Microsoft at the time, I was on the MSN network and I was talking to a customer on the East Coast and one of our support people in Redmond. I was chatting. It was the middle of the night and we are having this three-way conversation on multi-chat. And just at that moment, it dawned on me that aside from being funny, I Am therefore IP, IM is the run away next generation signaling infrastructure. We were all talking at that time about what is the next signaling infrastructure. Is it AIN [Advanced Intelligent Network]? From my job perspective at the time, how is Microsoft going to participate in that next generation? What are the softswitch guys are doing so on and so forth? But here, I was having a conversation with people all around the globe. I was having that through NATs and firewalls and it worked. I was having it in real time and it was widely deployed already.<br /><br />At the intersection of VoIP and IM in 2003, Skype appeared. And adding to that voice and visual sharing and rich communications, pictures, all of the other things - web links all of the other things that you want to share in a real time session is really the foundation for next generation rich communications.<br /><br />How did this all come together? Well, in the summer of 2003, the solution was really 99% complete. And I think that this is why people at the Fall VON show were upset when there was so much overwhelming hype about the introduction of Skype. Because they were all saying, "Hey Vocal Tech did this years ago and we have chat in our IM client and so on and so forth. There was a robust audio stack, multi-media PC's were well-penetrated, broadband penetration was on the rise and by that point, well penetrated enough around the world to be a platform for this.<br /><br />The P2P file sharing network had introduced new paradigms for low cost infrastructure. The NAT traversal techniques were well-known at that point. Maybe not deployed, but well-known. For example, in most of the voice chat scenarios of the incumbent IM players, voice chat failed 30-40-50-60% of the time if there was a NAT in the picture. And so, people did not use it, right? If it fails 2% at the time, you are not going to try it again.<br /><br />The IM networks were well deployed for sure. All that Skype did was that they closed the loop. They added the other 2% at the top and they made this thing work. One simple little application, good formula, the users really liked it as I said; the industry was sort of confounded and by fall of 2003, there were 500,000 downloads and this thing was on an incredible trajectory.<br /><br />Today, 276 million registered users, 30 million of which were in the last quarter of 2007. We have global appeal in reach, reliable PSTN interconnect. We have lots and lots of devices supported. Things like PSP's and N800's and cordless phones and all sorts of devices and more on the works. We're profitable. And so, I would say that we have entered the era of rich PC based Internet communications. This is a time when we are finally seeing the vision of the original SIP founders of multimodal rich communications being deployed to user's desktop in a usable, cheap, most of the time free, way. This includes real time video, data, presence, text and wide band audio. Wide band audio today is more widely deployed than ever before and the majority of those minutes are happening on Skype.<br /><br />We are also talking about a paradigm shift where the smart platform on the end point is what is driving innovation as Lee [Dryburgh] talked about versus things coming from the network or the provider in the core. So what is next? I think a big part of this and Lee also talked about this, is sorting out the mobile mess. So in my view, mobility is the last anchor to the old way. It is an incredible innovation to be able to pick up your phone and take it with you. And as a result, it is the fastest growth telecom service today. But the spectrum scarcity and the other issues make it a perfect world garden. In a lot of ways, it is back to the future. It is the good old days again, closed networks, device lock in, phones with these numbers, these pesky numbers, geographically oriented contract, honor some contracts. Basically, the old world.<br /><br />But maybe there is some hope here. And for many, many reasons, the flat rate pricing, the auction of 700 [Mhz] bands spectrum and where open platform conditions apply. Maybe a new game is beginning here. And, this is really one of the most exciting times in the communications, I think. There are still lots and lots of hurdles. We have to make sure that these guys do not do things to discriminate against applications, that the principals of that neutrality continue to apply and we are vigilant about that as a community. But maybe, a new game is here.<br /><br />So for the next 10 years, I think that there is the possibility that we will enter the era of rich Internet communications. Again, the same list as before, but add to that new mash ups of fixed mobile convergence of web-based communication and voice and video and other real time communications perfectly mashed together in ways that developers can recreate and mix and match applications. We will have freedom to these applications on a new platform that includes mobility.<br /><br />And finally, I think that we all agree, I hope, in this room that there is a natural segmentation of competencies that emerges from these, one that the industry has been fighting against for quite sometime. But that network infrastructure and pipes and the competencies associated with rolling that out are different than the competencies around application, innovation at the edge of the network. Let us let those competencies lie where they are. Let us let them blossom where they are and move forward in that way.<br /><br />So I think I kept within the time. If there any questions maybe we can do that.<br /><br /><br /><b>Jonathan:</b>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; David if you if you ask me that question I will repeat it.<br /><br /><b>Audience:&nbsp;</b>&nbsp;&nbsp; The question is, how is the Skype-eBay relationship going?<br /><br /><b>Jonathan:&nbsp;</b>&nbsp;&nbsp; Okay the question is how is the Skype-eBay relationship going? From my perspective very well, we recently got a new CEO who is a medium term eBay guy. So today, with 276 million registered users, I think that there is less focus at eBay today on finding the place where eBay and Skype intersect on the web and mash-up to create a new application paradigm for eBay or communications paradigm for eBay and more focused on Skype growing its business and eBay growing its business. So can I answer your question?<br /><br /><b>Audience:</b>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; At one point, Skype was really the future or the leading edge that went into eBay. So, what are Skype's future plans? How is Skype going to grow its business?<br /><br /><b>Jonathan:&nbsp;</b>&nbsp;&nbsp; If you did not hear it the question was, after being rolled into eBay and now, kind of looking at the landscape, what are the future plans for Skype--<br /><br /><b>Audience:</b>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Tell us all your secrets?<br /><br />(Voice overlapped) <br /><br /><b>Jonathan:&nbsp;</b>&nbsp;&nbsp; I think that in some ways, we stalled. We got wrapped into the M&amp;A [Merger &amp; Acquisition]. There is almost always a period of integration that a lot of weird things are tried and some work and some don't, and there is defocus. We obviously had some management turn over and what not. For me personally, this is the most exciting period for Skype going forward. The projects that I am leading in my team and that we are working on for the next 2 years or 3 years I think are ground-breaking projects. And that sense of innovation and hard work and startupness is very much alive in the company. I cannot really talk about the specifics, the things that we are going to be rolling out but I am really serious when I say that I am personally excited about what we are working on. Like almost no time before my career.<br /><br /><b>Chair:&nbsp;</b>&nbsp;&nbsp; That sounds terribly exciting. If it is okay, we have time for one or two more questions if Jonathan is good?<br /><br /><b>Audience:</b>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Hi Jonathan. This is Irv Shapiro from IfByPhone. As a voice application provider, we would like to provide highly scaleable applications on the Skype network. At the current time, we find it complex to interconnect to the Skype network at a high volume level with hundreds or hundreds of thousands of users. What is in the works to make it easier for those end points to blossom in the Skype network infrastructure?<br /><br /><b>Jonathan:</b>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; This is a topic that is near and dear to me. I participate in the discussions internally about platform versus application and I guess it is early to make any definitive announcements or anything like that. We are still grappling with the issues there. But I would say that it is a very logical next step for us that Skype will enable these kinds of interfaces. I think that our API and developer story thus far has been sort of interesting but not in the realm of the scaleable applications that you are talking about. I and many of us in the company really recognize that. We think that there are easy solutions but they take shift in mindset to be able to get those out to the community.<br /><br />And, we have to be very careful as well. The last thing that we want to happen is something that is detrimental to the health of the network.<br /><br /><b>Chair:&nbsp;</b>&nbsp;&nbsp; One last question for Jonathan please. Any last questions?<br /><br /><b>Jonathan:&nbsp;</b>&nbsp;&nbsp; This one over here.<br /><br /><b>Audience:</b>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; (Inaudible)<br /><b><br />Chair:&nbsp;&nbsp;</b>&nbsp; Can you repeat the question?<br /><br /><b>Jonathan:&nbsp;</b>&nbsp;&nbsp; The question was about the network outage in December and what we have done to fix that. I am not involved in the core team work around the P2P network and I do'nt have specific knowledge of the fixes but I do know that they isolated the problem. They have put that patch out to the network and they are confident that things would continue to scale.<br /><br />I do not know how much you have read in the blogosphere about it but it was a very interesting event. It was sort of an event at the leading edge of peer-to-peer networking and computer science in many ways. This anomaly that was caused by the restart of a lot of computer simultaneously created vulnerability in the way that the core infrastructure the network is supported. And, it was just sort of this spiral. Once that it started, it got worse and worse and worse. As far as I know, we have addressed those issues and that anomaly and would not be affected by future scenarios like that one.<br /><br /><b>Chair:</b>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Jonathan, thank you very much for coming. Thank you very much for opening. And, thank you very much for fielding very difficult questions. Please thank Jonathan.<br /><br />(Applause)<br /><br /><b>Jonathan:</b>&nbsp;&nbsp; Thank you.<br /></div>]]>
        
    </content>
<feedburner:origLink>http://www.ecommmedia.com/blog/2008/04/jonathan-christensen-ecomm2008-keynote.html</feedburner:origLink></entry>

<entry>
    <title>Thankyou to Andy and Comunicano</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/eCommBlog/~3/258655974/thankyou-to-andy-abramson.html" />
    <id>tag:www.ecommmedia.com,2008:/blog//6.170</id>

    <published>2008-03-27T00:34:30Z</published>
    <updated>2008-03-27T00:54:42Z</updated>

    <summary>What has been tremendous for me about eComm was the sheer energy and enthusiasm of everyone. I had not even thought about a 2009 but by conference day two I was bombarded with other's plans and ideas towards 2009. It...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>Lee S Dryburgh</name>
        <uri>http://www.ss7.net</uri>
    </author>
    
        <category term="eComm2008" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
    <category term="comunicano" label="Comunicano" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="pr" label="PR" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://www.ecommmedia.com/blog/">
        <![CDATA[<span class="mt-enclosure mt-enclosure-image"><img alt="eComm2008_Center.jpg" src="http://www.ecommmedia.com/blog/images/eComm2008_Center.jpg" class="mt-image-center" style="margin: 0pt auto 20px; text-align: center; display: block;" height="333" width="500" /></span><br />What has been tremendous for me about eComm was the sheer energy and enthusiasm of everyone. I had not even thought about a 2009 but by conference day two I was bombarded with other's plans and ideas towards 2009. It seems a community has formed and decided to help build a 2009. <br /><br />I'd like to ask everyone for their understanding that I am not as quick as normal for another week, maybe two. I pushed a bunch of family and business issues until post-conference to deal with. As many of you know I put both my family and business life on sudden hold for five months to ensure we had a conference in March. There was no company, branding, nor did I have event experience so it was a very tall order. What I did have though was clear-cut vision. Now post conference I know that everyone thought the event was fantastic (via surveys and the many kind people who walked up to me to tell me so) and the start of something completely new.<br /><br />There are two areas I would have liked to have been quicker at - uploading of event media and some post-event postings. On the media front (audio, video, slides) things are in a processing pipeline. On the posting front, it will have to wait a bit due to the issues I mentioned.<br /><br />But there is one post I can not leave any longer. A post to say a big thank you to Andy Abramson and his team at Comunicano. When Andy found out that I was putting together a new conference as a successor to ETel all on my own, he waded in to help. He assigned tasks to his great team members at his PR agency Comunicano and said that it would be without charge (there was no money so this was awesome). At the time I did not know Andy, only knew of him, so I really did not know what to expect. Lots of people had made promises, some of them very grand indeed. Andy promised very little so I did not expect anything and I mentally wrote it off along with many other promises. Cut forwards four months later to the conference, Andy and his team had done more than anyone to build up attendees, press and sponsors. It was completely unexpected. He promised very little yet delivered concrete results above anyone else.<br /><br />When I arrived at the conference the first thing I did was to thank Andy and his team. I was gobsmacked that without much noise his team had just consistently kept working to a set routine over the months and got results. I told him it was completely unexpected, the sheer volume of help. Andy simply replied that he under-promises and over-delivers. Nuff said.<br /><div><br /></div>]]>
        
    </content>
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<entry>
    <title>Presentations, Audio and Video will be made Available</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/eCommBlog/~3/252616456/ecomm-2008-content.html" />
    <id>tag:www.ecommmedia.com,2008:/blog//6.169</id>

    <published>2008-03-16T20:45:51Z</published>
    <updated>2008-03-16T20:56:49Z</updated>

    <summary>A quick answer to the near-hourly emails requesting the presentations, audio and video recorded during eComm 2008. We will make them available as soon as we can. I'd expect the presentations to be made available later this week and the...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>Lee S Dryburgh</name>
        <uri>http://www.ss7.net</uri>
    </author>
    
        <category term="content" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
        <category term="podcast" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
    <category term="audio" label="audio" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="presentations" label="presentations" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="video" label="video" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://www.ecommmedia.com/blog/">
        <![CDATA[A quick answer to the near-hourly emails requesting the presentations, audio and video recorded during eComm 2008. We will make them available as soon as we can. I'd expect the presentations to be made available later this week and the videos to begin appearing the week after that. We will use <a href="http://www.itconversations.com/">ITconversations.com</a> to distribute the audio.<br /><br />The video will be made available in 1080i HD format using torrent distribution and SD including portable formats will be made available via Google Videos.<br /><br />We would like to hear from any company who would like to sponsor the content. We will place your ad at the start of each piece of content. Email <a href="mailto:sponsors08@eCommMedia.com">sponsors08@eCommMedia.com</a> for more details.<br /> ]]>
        
    </content>
<feedburner:origLink>http://www.ecommmedia.com/blog/2008/03/ecomm-2008-content.html</feedburner:origLink></entry>

<entry>
    <title>Dean Bubley on Radio Technologies</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/eCommBlog/~3/243413214/dean-bubley-on-radio-technologies.html" />
    <id>tag:www.ecommmedia.com,2008:/blog//6.163</id>

    <published>2008-02-29T16:44:08Z</published>
    <updated>2008-02-29T16:48:49Z</updated>

    <summary> The following interview is with Dean Bubley who is the the Founder of Disruptive Analysis, an independent technology industry analyst and consulting firm. It took place on the 29th January 2008 - yes I know I am a little...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>Lee S Dryburgh</name>
        <uri>http://www.ss7.net</uri>
    </author>
    
        <category term="eComm2008" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
    <category term="35g" label="3.5g" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="3g" label="3g" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="4g" label="4g" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="700mhz" label="700mhz" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="lte" label="lte" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="wimax" label="wimax" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://www.ecommmedia.com/blog/">
        <![CDATA[ 
<p>The following interview is with <a href="http://ecommmedia.com/speakers/dean_bubley/">Dean Bubley</a> who is the the Founder of <a href="http://www.disruptive-analysis.com/">Disruptive Analysis</a>, an independent technology industry analyst and consulting firm. It took place on the 29th January 2008 - yes I know I am a little late getting it out the door! Dean will be delivering one of the <a href="http://ecommmedia.com/2008/wireless-access-control.php">keynotes</a> at eComm next month.</p>
<p>The Audio  may be downloaded <a href="http://ecommmedia.com/2008/downloads/audio/2008-01-29-dean-bubley-64.mp3">here</a> in MP3 format (64 kbps, 28 Meg).  The run time is 1hr 2mins.</p>
<p><strong>Lee: </strong>So today I'm sitting -- I keep saying that actually, I'm sitting with blah-blah-blah, and I'm not sitting, because you're there and I'm here and we're on Skype. So today I'm chatting with Dean of Disruptive Wireless. Dean, can you tell me why you think eComm is important?</p>
<p><strong>Dean: </strong>I think it's going to be a really interesting event, because every day I hear a huge amount about new and potential ways of using communication. And to be honest, I would rather filter them myself. As an analyst, my job is to try to wade through reams of possibilities, of pitches from all sorts of different companies, and being able to hear it outsourced and decide what I think is real, what I think is reasonable and what I think is unrealistic is very valuable. And I think it should be a fascinating events to actually see things put into context against each other. And there may well be a bunch of things which surprise me, positively and negatively maybe.</p>
<p><strong>Lee: </strong>Okay. So, Dean, you're coming along as some kind of filtering critic, then. So I look forward to that. You are going to be speaking on a topic entitled &quot;Who Controls Wireless Access:  Carriers, Internet Players or the End User?&quot; Can you give me a very brief outline of that?</p>
<p><strong>Dean: </strong>Yeah. I mean, essentially this is looking at the realistic change for some of the more utopian ideals of mobile and wireless communications to become real. 
<blockquote>
  Why utopian? I mean, there are an awful lot of people who refer to openness, who are looking to regain control of their own sort of mobility rather than leaving it in the hands of licensed mobile operators and carriers.
</blockquote>
<p>And up to a point, I can certainly understand why that's desirable; it's never good to have an unnecessary middleman between you and what you want to achieve.</p>
<p>On the other hand, we're in a practical hand. There are areas where services make sense. There are areas where things like licensed spectrum make sense, as well as unlicensed spectrum. </p>
<blockquote>
  <p>The fact is that the world has benefitted from several billion people using cellular telephony, for example, despite the fact that it's being controlled in a fairly rigorous way by the mobile operators. An interesting question is whether that will continue as you go forward with the advent of new wireless technologies, whether it's Wi-Fi meshes or WiMAX and various 4G and 3.5G technologies coming fairly soon. And then on further on the horizon, you've got things like software-defined radio. And there's a whole set of issues around policy, technology, end-user behavior and regulation, all of which intersect to determine what the mix is going to be of personal control versus perhaps carrier control. And then, of course, you've got also the Googles of this world coming into the marketplace, as well.</p>
</blockquote>
<p><strong>Lee: </strong>Well, when I listen to that, I hear two things. Carrier control, to me at least, means investment in networks. Now, we have a global, ubiquitous GSM network. I can be reached anywhere on one number, huge value. But at the same time, the application has remained static. As I think Norman said the other day, voice has pretty much followed the same paradigm the past 100 years and the huge disappointment, frustration and, to be honest, anger, has been the lack of innovation. And if the operators keep control of that access network, then the problem is, innovation will remain stifled. So do you feel that - I need to watch here knowing the consulting work you do -- can you comment on, as you called it, the middleman stiffling innovation there, the mobile operator?</p>
<p><strong>Dean: </strong>Well, I think first is, you need to separate out the access from the core and the applications. I think that as long as there is sufficient competition in the access network, you will tend to get increasing levels of openness, and indeed this is what you're seeing now. In a lot of countries, there are now flat-rate data plans, you're seeing the opportunity to use 3.5G to LGs like HSPA, Wi-Fi, perhaps WiMAX in some countries, multiple operators; and there you tend to find that you will see access become more open. In some places, it will need a bit of a regulatory kick. And certainly there are enough places now that you can just use a mobile-operator service to get to whatever capabilities you want, whether on the web, in a corporate network or in the operator's own domain if they have a particularly good service.</p>
<blockquote>
  <p>Now, what you also then have though is openness on the device side and in the core and application layer. I'll talk about the device layer in a minute, but the core and application later, there is clearly a lack of innovation and sort of the proposed solution of IMS, if anything, exacerbates the problem in my view. It's very, very difficult for innovators to develop to IMS as a platform in the way that they do for the web. There are lots of interoperability issues; model of the standards are there. The idea of two men and a dog in a garage somewhere is more likely two men and a dog and a thirty-person legal department if you want to get a service adopted across multiple networks.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>So I think that there's certainly some issues there. And to be fair, the carriers themselves are recognizing limitations. It's notable that IMS has had very little traction among cellular operators thus far, because they don't understand what the business model is. You know, frankly, voice works fine on circuit switched in most cases. And other things like IM and video-sharing are sort of almost prototype applications rather than revenue-generating ones.</p>
<p>So I think there is definitely a gap for innovation. Interestingly, some of the operators, the more forward-thinking ones, are looking to enable that by perhaps exposing their communication capabilities as APIs to third parties. I'm thinking about BT playing around with a thing called Web 21C and the Canadian operator Telus and others who are at the early stages of this. But it is early days.</p>
<blockquote>
  <p>It's also worth saying that on the device side, there is an interesting tousle around openness of devices. Some mobile phones are locked to a specific carrier. It varies hugely around the world, though. Roughly 50% of phones are sold through carrier channels or are carrier customized, and about 50% are sold separately. So if you go to parts of Asia, for example, you'll buy your SIM card from one shop and your handset from another. In North America and Japan and Korea and, to a lesser degree, Western Europe, that's historically not been the case, especially where handsets are subsidized, if you want to use that word, by the carrier. You could make an argument that if you're give a subsidized phone, it gives the person doing the subsidy, the operator, some sort of legal or moral authority to limit what you can do with it, whereas if they basically said, &quot;Well, if you want to pay full price for the phone, then you can use it how you like; but if you want a free one, then you use it on our terms.&quot;</p>
  <p>So I think we're going to see some interesting developments over the next 18 months here with a lot of carriers at least appearing to support greater levels of openness.</p>
</blockquote>
<p><strong>Lee: </strong>Okay. It reminds me of the comment that Martin Gaddis made about the Amazon book reader [Kindle], that it comes with connectivity and it's --</p>
<p><strong>Dean: </strong>Yes.</p>
<p><strong>Lee: </strong>-- pretty much an application tethered to connectivity and an application --</p>
<p><strong>Dean: </strong>Hmm!</p>
<p><strong>Lee: </strong>-- pretty much the same way voice and SMS are connected; you know, it comes with --</p>
<p><strong>Dean: </strong>Yes.</p>
<p><strong>Lee: </strong>-- connectivity and the apps. So if we subsidize a handset, the argument can be made to some degree that we can dictate what applications run. So I think you're correct in the use of the word &quot;tousled&quot; there. </p>
<blockquote>
  <p>As an end user, I want to see the explosion of innovation we saw in the '90s around the World Wide Web and the PC, and I want to see that end up in a handset, because a handset has far more opportunities because it's on you all the time, it's a personal device and all the other things that we know and I won't elaborate on.</p>
</blockquote>
<p><strong>Dean: </strong>Yeah. I agree in principle that there ought to be a mechanism for the type of viral adoption of cool new stuff that we see on the web. If you think about the first time you saw Google Earth, Facebook or whatever your favorite thing is. You probably on something like Google Earth, if you're like me, you probably wasted about three hours playing around with it and then emailed it to your friends, irrespective of what service provider they have, you emailed them &quot;You need to get this now.&quot; And the thing is, there's no way you can do that in mobile at the moment. </p>
<blockquote>
  <p>You can't come across something cool and then tell your friends about it, because you think, &quot;Well, what phone have they got? What network are they on? Are they on 3G, are they on 2G? Are they on CDMA, are they on GSM?&quot; and so on. That mechanism for viral adoption isn't there. The mobile phone isn't the vector for the virus [sic: viral adoption] yet. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Now, that's partly down to the operators; but to be honest, it's also partly down to the nature of the handsets. There is huge fragmentation in handset operating systems. I've got a 3G phone where I've switched the 3G off on it to save battery, for example. </p>
<blockquote>
  <p>It's very difficult to predict what everyone else's capabilities are, and that makes it very difficult for innovators.</p>
</blockquote>
<p><strong>Lee: </strong>So it may be jumping ahead in what I wanted to cover with you. But are you able at this point to pass on any comment on the Open Handset Alliance's Android?</p>
<p><strong>Dean: </strong>I have to say I haven't had as much information about how they're going to achieve what they want to achieve as I would've liked. I think to me at the moment, it's not much further beyond the stages of yet another platform in my eyes. Yes, I know it's Google, so you have to make allowances; but you essentially are dealing with a company which is run by idealists with lots of money, so they're in a position to make things happen. And it does seem to get support from a lot of people. But on the other hand, for that matter, so does Symbian and so does Linux and various other platforms for handsets, and fundamentally you can't escape the fact that 35% of the world's phones are based on plain, old Nokia Series 40 feature-phone platform. And it seems that large chunks of the world are quite happy with with very, very closed phones, not even like lock-down Smart phones, but basic phones which do voice, SMS and have an alarm clock.</p>
<p><strong>Lee: </strong>(Laughing.) Dean, you always make me laugh. So</p>
<p><strong>Dean: </strong>Yeah?</p>
<p><strong>Lee: </strong> when you spoke, picking up on an earlier point you had that you touched across, can we go on the record and say, &quot;Dean says that IMS is dead in the water&quot;?</p>
<p><strong>Dean: </strong>No, I don't think it is dead in the water. I think it's certainly not being deployed in the way that it was first envisaged by the 3GPP. It's deeply ironic that, in fact, the early implementations of IMS have not been mobile at all, but have been used for fixed voice over IP and also by some greenfield WiMAX operators. That's certainly not what 3GPP had in mind when they standardized it.</p>
<p>Bits of IMS are being deployed for certain things for certain operators. It makes sense in terms of consolidation of core networks. If you're an operator that's historically on multiple IP networks and you want to blend them all into one, it's an off-the-shelf blueprint about how to do it, and that may be easier than starting with a blank sheet of paper.</p>
<p>But there are certain elements of IMS which are not fully standardized or people haven't decided how to use them, say, particularly there's an element called the HSS, which is the subscriber data store, and at the moment that's not going anywhere very quickly. Conversely, some of the security functions and just some of the ways they sort of scale up session-based services, there are some upsides. But I certainly think the original IMS vision certainly has undergone an awful lot of rework.</p>
<p>So I wouldn't say it's dead in the water. </p>
<blockquote>
  <p>But it's sort of morphing into the more general web services, IP and IT space. I think if we come back in two or three years' time, there will be bits of network elements which are identifiably IMS elements; but I don't think we'll see too many people with a complete end-to-end IMS here and particularly not a standalone IMS. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>You'll find that people are blending applications from a variety of sources. So essentially you've got Internet applications, you've got enterprise applications, IMS, you have maybe TV, old 2G and intelligent-network stuff which still works and various other sources, service/delivery platforms, and they're all having to be blended in some sort of network middleware with gateways here and sort of other interoperability platforms there. So I think we'll end up with a real mix at the end, to be honest, but not pure IMS.</p>
<p><strong>Lee: </strong>You just said that the home subscriber server is not going anywhere, and yet it's the essential IMS component, would you not agree?</p>
<p><strong>Dean: </strong>No, I wouldn't say it's an essential IMS component. The issue is that the HSS, no one is really sure what data you want to store in there, whether it's going to be centralized and distributed. If you think in some scen