Edison Research

How To Almost Lose An Election With A 70% Job Approval Rating

Thu, 05 Nov 2009 07:55:11 -0500

Tuesday night Michael Bloomberg came within 5 points of losing his job as mayor of New York City to Comptroller William Thompson even though the voters were giving him a 70% job approval. That would have been unprecedented. In the history of Edison Research exit polls the highest job approval that we have ever recorded for a losing incumbent was 63% for Senator Lincoln Chafee in Rhode Island in 2006 where voters turned him out of office even thought they liked him simply because he had an "R" next to his name instead of a "D."

It is for surprising results like last night's New York City mayoral race that exit poll data becomes invaluable. When pundits start scratching their heads for explanations, it is time to dig through the exit poll data to find some.

The key group of voters in New York City was the 18% of voters who approved of the job Michael Bloomberg has been doing as mayor yet still decided to vote for someone else on Tuesday. Let's call them Bloomberg-Approving-Thompson-Voters (BATVs). Looking at the opinions of Edison's exit poll respondents, we can discover their message to Mayor Bloomberg - "we like the job you have been doing as mayor but we didn't like the heavy-handed way you went about winning a third term in office."

Here is the evidence.

Term Limits: When asked if Michael Bloomberg's decision to change the number of terms a mayor could serve from two to three had affected their vote, 45% of all voters said it had made them less likely to vote for Bloomberg. Among the BATVs, more than three-quarters (77%) said that the term limits change was a reason.

Bloomberg's Campaign Spending: The Edison Researchexit poll asked voters whether the amount Bloomberg spent was an important factor in their vote. A majority (56%) of BATVs said that his spending was an important factor in their vote against him.

Bloomberg's Attacks on Thompson: More than two-thirds (68%) of BATVs said that Bloomberg had attacked his opponent, William Thompson, unfairly during the campaign.

On three points this key segment of voters said that Bloomberg's "heavy-handed" tactics had driven them away even though they like the job that Bloomberg is doing. And this wasn't an easy decision for many of these voters. Nearly half of the BATVs waited until the last week of the campaign to decide to vote for Thompson. This explains why nearly all pre-election polling showed Bloomberg winning by 11 to 18 points the week before the election before these voters had made up their minds

As a successful businessman Michael Bloomberg has a reputation for listening to his customers. We will see during his third term whether Mayor Bloomberg is listening to the messages that the voters were giving him when they almost gave his job to someone else.

Men Are From Mars...

Sun, 01 Nov 2009 18:45:48 -0500

You've heard the saying (and maybe even read the book) "Men Are From Mars, Women Are From Venus." Undisputedly, the two genders process, act and most importantly react differently in just about every situation. So it shouldn't come as a surprise that new research released by Targetcast reports that men and women use media differently. Their findings support what we've known all along: you can't treat them as one and the same in your marketing and advertising plans--or anything else for that matter.

According to the study, which was conducted in early September with adults 18-64, men are more willing to use online sources for news and they are more likely than women to replace printed magazines with digital alternatives. The same pattern holds true for music and radio. While men are more inclined to want music online or from a mobile device, women are likely to listen to their favorite radio stations offline.

So does this mean that advertisers should pull what little advertising budget they have out of traditional media and put it online or in digital format? Not so fast. While one can't ignore the inevitable shift to online sources, writing off the value of print media could be a mistake.

Yes, this study confirms that men are out of the box faster to embrace digital formats and online sources, but it seems like traditional media is still effective in terms of advertising. The study cites that more than 40% of adults pay attention to ads in newspapers, followed closely by magazines and TV. Internet was well below 20%.

72% of those surveyed would not be willing to pay for an online newspaper subscription to replace a current printed one. Over 40% also said they prefer the experience of reading printed newspapers over online news sources. Until newspapers figure out a way to offer the news online without an online only subscription fee AND replicate the frictionless experience of reading print media, there continues to be a role for printed media.

Another highlight of this study was that radio is still considered relevant in an ever changing media landscape, and nearly 60% said they enjoy discovering new music on radio. Clearly, though radio's role in music discovery has eroded, it still plays an important role.

Blackberry Strikes Again

Thu, 22 Oct 2009 11:17:02 -0500

With all of their recent press and flood of new releases, you wouldn't associate BlackBerry with the term Slacker, but all that is beginning to change.

Earlier this year, Research in Motion paired with Slacker, an Internet radio service, to bring the Slacker music application to BlackBerry phones in a move designed to further increase BlackBerry's mainstream appeal. Once favored mostly by executives and those who needed immediate access to email, the BlackBerry in all forms now has crossed over into the hands of stay at home moms, college students and young professionals, thanks to a direct effort by RIM to make the BlackBerry smartphone more entertainment-based with games, social networking and now music applications.

As positive as it is for BlackBerry users, Slacker is reaping even more benefits from the arrangement. About a third of the new registrations for Slacker are from BlackBerry users. With mobile media coming of age, Internet-only radio stations are getting a much needed second wind.

Slacker was the breakthrough music app for BlackBerry, but others have been added, including rivals Pandora and iheartradio. Slacker lets users create their own stations by selecting artists they like. Unlike Pandora, which generates suggestions based on actual music preference, the Slacker app suggests music by similar artists from a vast library of nearly three million songs. One of the perks of Slacker that also sets it apart from Pandora is its ability to offer genre-specific stations tailored to the user's preference for rock, country, blues etc. In addition, Slacker stations can be stored in the phone's memory so users can access the music without a connection.

So as BlackBerry continues to evolve its music offerings, it becomes more of a head-to-head competitor to the iPhone, offering entertainment services across multiple handsets (compared with the iPhone's two basic offerings.) I suspect teens will still gravitate to the iPhone, but those a bit older with sufficient disposable income will find a BlackBerry hard to resist as their all-in-one convergence gadget of choice. While the BlackBerry used to scream "uptight executive," it now signals "well-connected and sophisticated." And the mobile convergence device competition just got even more fierce.

Just Enough Love For Corzine?

Fri, 16 Oct 2009 15:40:10 -0500

I had my second in-person encounter with NJ Governor Jon Corzine last week. This one was at a "Green Day" environmental fair in Maplewood NJ. Our prior meeting had been a 4th of July parade a couple of years ago. Both times I went out of my way to shake the Governor's hand. My goal for getting in the hand-shaking vicinity of Corzine last week was to provide a thrill for my 6 year old son (didn't work) and also just to give a friendly "good luck Governor" to Corzine. As Corzine made a somewhat lethargic handshaking loop around the park, I hovered around his orbit with several other people and got my hand shook. Just I had observed a few years back at the 4th of July parade, Corzine seemed like a regular guy shaking a strangers hand --that is, he didn't seem particularly excited by the experience. In fact, Corzine seemed pretty passive as a campaigner, showing little of the energetic glad-handing fervor we associate with most successful politicians. Corzine's lack of enthusiasm as a campaigner was endearing in its own way. Corzine was in no rush to shake as many hands or connect with as many people as possible and clearly wasn't obsessed about getting the most bang for his campaign stop buck.

But, of course, one person's genuineness is another person's "cold". As we've previously noted in this space, Corzine's "favorable" numbers back up the fact that there is largely a lack of love for Corzine among NJ voters, something that has been true even in better economic times. A New York Times poll released today asked respondents: "Do you think Jon Corzine is someone you can relate to, or not?" Only 32% said "yes", with 63% saying "no". And Pollster.com shows Corzine's favorability at only 37%, with 50% unfavorable . These are numbers that would normally doom an incumbent. And through the summer, Corzine consistently polled around 10 points behind his Republican opponent Chris Christie.

But the gap between Corzine and Christie has closed this past month. The Governor has been helped by a Democratic registration edge, a wider campaign money advantage, and possibly most of all, by a surprisingly strong third party Candidate, Chris Daggett. Daggett, a political novice, has tapped dissatisfaction with the parties and a substantial market for a "none of the above" choice and has shown support approaching 20% in some surveys. As Nate Silver noted: "those voters that Christie is losing aren't disappearing into the ether. They're moving, rather, to independent candidate Chris Daggett, who has run on a Bloombergian platform (pro-reform, pro-environment, pro-choice) although without any of Michael Bloomberg's monetary firepower. The decline in Christine's numbers since July and the rise of Daggett's correspond nearly one-for-one."

As Christie has lost support, Corzine's support has been amazingly consistent, demonstrating that the Governor has a floor of around 40% that wont be broken on election day. With Obama, Biden and Clinton heading to NJ to firm up the Democratic core, money flowing into advertising to continue to bring Christie down, and Daggett siphoning double digits, Corzine is in a position to eke out a low 40s tally and a victory. With it would come another four years to make the people of New Jersey love him.

Have Consumers Hung Up On Ringtones?

Thu, 08 Oct 2009 11:48:59 -0500

Ringtones were once popularly used as an identity statement, with users willing to pay as much as $3 for a few seconds of their personal anthem to signal an incoming call. However, it seems that consumers are no longer purchasing ringtones with the same enthusiasm as in years past. According to research from SNL Kagan, ringtone sales are on the decline--falling from $714 million in 2007 to just $541 million in 2008. As a result of this drop, overall U.S. mobile music revenues posted their first-ever annual decline.

So why the change in behavior? It could be another sign of the tough economic times, but many insiders believe that users are getting more savvy about creating their own ringtones. As technology continues to evolve and present new options, consumers are evolving right along with it and learning to adapt to changing patterns. Sites like makeownringtone.com and create-ringtone.com allow consumers to use their own files to create custom ringtones. What would have seemed too complicated and clunky for the common folks even one year ago, is now viewed as just another click or download thanks to these user-friendly sites.

What will happen next to make up for the loss of ringtone sales? It seems that the wheels are already in motion to take the next step. As shown in our own research, music usage via cell phone is currently low, but as digital opportunities continue to roll out it seems apparent that carrier companies are putting in more effort to encourage mobile music usage and purchase behavior. Handsets are continuously getting more advanced with better features to accommodate music, texting and web browsing. In addition, the increasing popularity of smartphones is driving the development of more and more music applications.

With consumers' increasing reliance on cell phones as their all-in-one device for communication, web browsing and even news alerts, mobile carriers have no choice but to work on bringing music out from off the back burner, especially if they are looking to bolster music usage sales. Apple got out in front with the iPhone and continues to step up with available ringtones for its users. While Apple's ringtones are still not cheap at $1.29, they are at least much less than the earlier $3 versions that used to be the norm.

Certainly, we will see a continued focus on more music applications in the near term. Although ringtones aren't bought and paid for as much as they were, they do still exist and provide some kind of revenue--at least for now. The key for the carriers and the music labels will be to provide value beyond the ring tone to drive sales and adoption.

Bloggers Beware!

Wed, 07 Oct 2009 13:09:25 -0500

Earlier this week, the FTC put forth new revisions to its guidelines concerning endorsements and testimonials in advertising. In addition to altering how far advertisers can go to make claims about a product's effectiveness, the FTC rules now include restrictions on bloggers that will require them to disclose when there is a "material connection" to an advertiser or sponsor.

According to the FTC statement, "the post of a blogger who receives cash or in-kind payment to review a product is considered an endorsement. Thus, bloggers who make an endorsement must disclose the material connections they share with the seller of the product or service." This means that when sample products are sent for trial, the blogger has to note it in the blog. The rules don't specify how they disclose it, as long as they do. If they neglect to come clean with any connections, the blogger could be fined up to $11,000.

These new guidelines do differentiate between "hobbyist" bloggers and those that make it their livelihood. Someone that buys a product and raves about it on their own personal blog or on a message board is not held to the same criteria as a commercial blog. The new FTC revisions were a long time coming--the last update was in 1980, long before the Internet and when blog was just a made up word found in children's books.

The practice of funding endorsements from advertisers has been around for years in all parts of the media, but now that blogging has become so mainstream, blogs are now being specifically mentioned in this latest round of updates. A paid endorsement used to be associated with only monetary compensation, but not any more. Any kind of payment--even free products or services-- is now included in the ruling and is considered an endorsement.

The release of the updated guidelines is still very fresh and the blogosphere is continuing to digest the new rules, but I suspect that the many websites that exist for the sole purpose of spreading feedback will not be keeping quiet. As a mom, my first thought is about the many parenting sites and "mommy-bloggers" that feed on mom-to-mom communication. Will they be subject to these new rules? If they blog often, regularly receive products to try and give endorsements that tout the advertiser, then the answer is yes.

There has been a trend in recent years for marketers to capitalize on these types of consumers, who will blog about products to their circle and spread the information like wildfire. Essentially, they are free marketing for companies, minus the cost of the product sample. However, the new definitions included in the FTC guidelines may cause bloggers to think twice when faced with a stiff fine--and this will hopefully result in not only greater transparency, but a more obvious path to monetization for those who seek to make their living from their blog. Although the FTC isn't likely to crackdown and do an all hands on sweep of the blogosphere (it's just too massive) the possibility of penalty does exist. It will be interesting to see how the new rulings affect the landscape of the blogs. How likely are bloggers to comply with this? Do you think the threat of a penalty is enough to compel greater transparency?

Note: I was not paid by any sponsors to write this post!

The Olympics: A Battle Worth Losing?

Fri, 02 Oct 2009 12:53:50 -0500

The Matt Drudge headline said it with pizzazz: "The Ego has landed: World rejects Obama, Chicago out in first round."

While I can't agree with Drudge that Chicago's Olympic loss was a result of a "rejection" of Obama, I have found the President's push to bring the Olympics to Chicago a completely misguided effort. My bone to pick isn't so much with the wasted time spent travelling to Copenhagen to pitch the International Olympic Committee. After all, the trip took less than 24 hours and I have no doubt Obama got some other work accomplished during his roundtrip commute. Also not my main concern is the political risk - though it was certainly there from the outset when the decision was made to make the trip. And it has, of course, now proven itself a losing move with terrible timing, with a worse than expected unemployment figure arriving in tandem with Drudge's "reject" headline. My complaint is not primarily with the timing of the effort or the diverted attention it caused, but with the goal itself. We should have let Rio, Tokyo and Madrid fight it out to begin with.

Why do countries battle to host the Olympics, with head-of-state pitches, marketing campaigns, and wining and dining of Olympic officials? The primary argument for the benefits of hosting the Olympics have always been economic. The spoils of hosting, proponents say, are infrastructure building, increased tourism dollars and job growth. But as noted by Jeffery Owen, this is often not the case. He states, "studies have consistently found no evidence of positive economic impacts from mega-sporting events even remotely approaching the estimates in economic impact studies." In fact, Olympic costs often exceed their budgets, and projections of revenue directly related to the Olympics often disappoint estimates made by prospective host cities.

Certainly another benefit of hosting the Olympics is the ability to show off your country to the world, showcasing political or economic power. For a country clamoring to take its place as a Super Power (Beijing 2008) or as a budding economic and regional power (Rio 2016) this makes a lot of sense (assuming the games are pulled off free of disaster). But obviously the United States has no need to legitimize itself as a World Power. And would there have been any benefit to the effort spent planning an opening-ceremony-to-top-all-opening-ceremonies for Chicago 2016? Let Rio have that "glory," please. With two wars, terrorism threats and a serious international image problem, is there any harm to just laying low for a while? Anyway, we can still win all the medals we want.

The New Album Experience in the Digital Age

Thu, 24 Sep 2009 10:18:21 -0500

I blogged a few weeks ago about the idea of additional content being added to digital albums and how the record labels were working on a deal with Apple to make it happen. Well, if you have a Blackberry you don't have to wait any more.

In a collaborative effort with the band U2, Research in Motion announced a new application for Blackberry smartphones that enriches the album listening experience on a digital platform. The U2 Mobile Album, which was released September 15th, allows for expanded content and an interactive component for the band's latest release, No Line On The Horizon.

In addition to being able to hear samples of the music, U2 fans can utilize a wide array of features including music videos, photos from the road and in the studio, lyrics, U2 news feeds and even tour information right down to a map of the venue. There is also the ability to purchase individual songs or the entire album right from the Blackberry. RIM also plans to roll out part two of the application, which will allow users to interact with other fans around the globe, soon.

This is all great news for digital music fans, but perhaps what makes it even better is that the application can be downloaded for free from the Blackberry site. Finally, someone in the world of digital music is being sensitive to the economic needs of music consumers. Not sure who gets the kudos for that-- the band or Blackberry, so we'll just thank 'em all.

If they set out to replace what's missing in digital from CDs and vinyl, RIM has certainly made progress towards that goal. Since the application is so interactive, the digital experience is actually better than the still photos you would otherwise have had in the sleeve. The U2 Mobile Album addresses a key weakness in the digital album platform.

This new application is a sure sign of what's to come for music listening, and since U2 and Blackberry have set the bar high (for free!) it is a tough act to follow--though others are sure to try. And that's good news for the consumer.

Canary in the Coal Mine - At Least Four Members of the New York City Council Lose Their Re-election Bids in Tuesday's Primary

Mon, 21 Sep 2009 10:28:28 -0500

In a low interest election last Tuesday - both from the press and from the voters who turned out in record low numbers - there were some results of interest. At least four members of the New York City Council lost their bids for re-election.

There has been a lot of talk this summer about the anger on display in the public discourse especially at town hall meetings, but the question has been whether this anger would be demonstrated when voters actually go to the polls.

The New York City Democratic Primary this week was an opportunity for voters to act on their anger and many of them did. The lightening rod in New York City was the recent City Council vote to revise term limits for elected city officials so that they can no serve twelve years instead of eight years. The Democratic primary voters in New York City used their vote to term limit four members of the city council (Alan Gerson, Kendell Stewart, Helen Sears and Kenneth Mitchell) the old-fashioned way - by voting them out of office. In the latest preliminary returns a fifth city council member - Maria Baez - is trailing by 90 votes and a sixth city council member - Thomas White - only leads by 6 votes.

This is the largest number of incumbent city council members to lose re-election in New York City in decades and it could be a sign of trouble to come for other incumbents running for re-election this year and next year. Edison Research exit polls on November 3rd will measure how much this anti-incumbent sentiment works against Governor Jon Corzine in New Jersey and Mayor Michael Bloomberg in New York City.

A quick review of the latest state polls shows that in addition to Governor Corzine, the following office-holders are trailing their challengers - Senator Chris Dodd of Connecticut, Senator Harry Reid of Nevada, Senator Michael Bennet of Colorado, Senator Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania, Governor Jim Gibbons of Nevada, and Governor David Paterson of New York. And this list doesn't include a large number of incumbents who decided not to run in order to avoid tough races - Senators Bond, Bunning, Burris, Gregg and Voinovich and Governors Douglas, Doyle, Palin and Pawlenty.

Tuesday's New York City primary may be remembered as just the first sign of angry voters sending incumbents into forced retirements.

The Shack

Mon, 14 Sep 2009 17:02:03 -0500

Just as the jokes about providing your zip code to the Radio Shack clerk as ransom to complete your purchase had become cliche, enter "The Shack. " Yes, Radio Shack has rebranded itself as "The Shack," and with the new name has come a fresh batch of ridicule for the struggling electronics chain. Judging from a sampling of commentary on the name change, the most common analysis suggests that the decision was mostly fueled by desperation. But several theories abound as far as what chain of events led the brass at "The Shack" corporate headquarters in Ft. Worth to this change.

Scott White envisions the name change as being the result of a hapless corporate management team huddled around a conference room:

I can already see the board meeting that took place. Some smooth talking, wanna be hip CMO says hey, we need to get rid of radio in our name because no one uses radios anymore. Then the President says, but what about all the brand equity we have in the name? The CMO wobbles and says how about we keep the name but call ourselves something hip, like The Shack. Presto, case solved. Brilliant.

Chris Brown articulates the puzzlement of many at the name change, and expresses doubts that the rebranding that he sees as being as lame (and also tone deaf to search engine optimization) could possibly have come from a qualified market research study:

Why pick a popular word? A popular word makes it tough to get natural organic search engine optimization! (I know about someone else having your name since my name is Chris Brown!) I just can't believe that they dropped Radio to keep Shack. Actually, Radio isn't that great either. Why not abbreviate it to something like RS. Wonder if they did any research at all?

Meanwhile, Dan Hawke suggests a rebranding like this could only have been the result of market research:

Apparently market research suggests that people enjoy names that are just "The" and then a word, with nothing descriptive about the business other than the type of building they're modeled after. that adding a "the" has other advantages: "Before, one might have said 'I have absolutely no need to ever go to Radio Shack,' but now, with the hipper re-branding, people can say 'I have absolutely no need to ever go to THE SHACK.' Also, there's a chance they'll get some accidental Google hits from people searching for Shaq.

So what do you think? Is market research to thank--or blame--for The Shack? Will The Shack have the last laugh? And most importantly--will Shaq be angry?

Sprint Changes The Game For Market Researchers

Thu, 10 Sep 2009 09:16:40 -0500

Sprint announced their new Anymobile plan today, and the other telecom providers will have no choice but to follow suit, and soon, before they start to lose customers (especially on the young end) in droves. Basically, the plan allows customers with an Everything Data plan (certainly, owners of the new Pre fall into that bucket) with any number of minutes (as low as 450) to get unlimited mobile-to-mobile calling regardless of network. With Sprint's announcement, there is increased incentive to use mobile phones exclusively, and landlines are consequently marginalized even further. With existing Sprint users getting automatically migrated to this plan, the behavior shift may be significant, as long-time landline users will rapidly begin to curtail their use, and eventually question the existence, of their landlines.

If the other telecom providers quickly copy Sprint's move (and I expect they will), this could cause a real disruption for market researchers, and a discontinuous jump in mobile phone-only households. It also, however, will likely cause a corresponding rise in the number of households with a mobile data plan (required for Anymobile) which opens doors for market researchers even while others are closed by a potentially precipitous drop in landline-based research.

Catch Up While Filling Up

Wed, 09 Sep 2009 15:40:38 -0500

Putting gas in the car is one of those things that's kind of a pain, but you have to do it. Thanks to another out of home media option, however, going to the pump now may actually not be wasted time after all. NBC Everywhere, the OOH division of NBC Universal, has partnered with Gas Station TV to bring NBC content to gas stations across the land.

Gas Station TV had been at the pump prior to this partnership, offering sports from ESPN and local weather from Accuweather in all the major markets including New York, Los Angeles and Chicago. But as of August 31, 2009, NBC Universal content was added to the network. Drivers and passengers alike can now see NBC clips on entertainment and news.

So while consumers are waiting for the tank to fill, which takes a reported 4 to 5 minutes, they can watch TV and catch up on the latest news, weather and sports. When I pump gas, I typically find myself either people watching or just watching the gas ticker as it clicks along totaling up how much I'll have to owe on this trip. Wouldn't watching TV be so much better? Heck yeah, and then maybe I wouldn't be so conscious of how low I'd let the tank get before refueling!

As much as I love this idea as a consumer, I love it all the same from an advertising perspective. For those 4 1/2 minutes you have a captive audience with nothing to do but wait...and watch. As a bonus, the consumer is already in the car and on the go-- a prime opportunity for fast food and quick service restaurants that have drive-thrus, like McDonalds and Starbucks.

Since Gas Station TV can program each station individually, advertisers can target their demographic audience at specified times throughout the day. Many people stop to fill up on the way to or from work, which gives a big boost to advertisers trying to reach consumers on their way home who may be stopping at the grocery store or looking for something to pick up for dinner.

The potential for all kinds of advertising on Gas Station TV is tremendous. This is yet another creative way to reach key audiences in transition, and a sign that out of home marketing and advertising is the inevitable future with new media as the enabler. And though I live in New Jersey (where all gas stations are full service by law), I'd love to see Gas Station TV at one of my stations. It would save me from wondering why in the world guys feel the need to get out of the car, even when the attendant is pumping the gas...

"Internet Radio Revs Up"

Wed, 09 Sep 2009 14:31:16 -0500

...according to the latest eMarketer report, which quotes data from the most recent study of Internet radio listening by Edison and our partners at Arbitron.

The Battle For Search Supremacy

Wed, 26 Aug 2009 10:22:28 -0500

While the dust has not begun to settle on the "Bing" search engine push by Microsoft or its partnership deal with Yahoo, the search wars remain a lopsided battle. The July 2009 online ratings from comScore show Google with 64.7% of the search market share (a tick lower than its 65.0% share in June), with Yahoo at 19.3% (down from 19.6%) and Microsoft up to 8.9% from 8.4% in June. Despite the continued dominance of Google, the size of the initial gains by Microsoft are mostly being interpreted as significant. As Larry Dignan notes, "these incremental gains don't signal a huge trend or anything, but they could add up over time." And from the Washington Post's Jason Kincaid: "Another month, another report that Bing is chiming slightly louder." But Kincaid also notes that Bing's gains may not represent much of an advancement toward helping Microsoft reach its ultimate goal of a strong head-to-head challenge to Google: "Once again, it looks like Bing's gain comes at Yahoo's expense, at least to some extent. We saw a similar pattern last month, when we pointed out that Yahoo was losing market share both from below (Bing) and above (Google). "

With Yahoo soon to be "Powered by Bing," Microsoft expects to largely co-op Yahoo's current search market share. And it's possible that this alone will make the price tag on the deal pay off. But it will take a lot more than the successful cannibalization of Yahoo users to achieve the ultimate goal of becoming a toe-to-toe competitor with Google. The Yahoo deal will make things tighter, but for the moment will leave Microsoft a long way from parity in a Coke vs. Pepsi-style battle with Google. The road to this goal rests on enough dissatisfaction with Google to push users to try Bing. And at the moment the need for something new simply doesn't exist for most Google users.

The latest data from the American Consumer Satisfaction Index shows Google with an 86 score for user satisfaction, significantly higher than its competitors despite a vastly larger base. With the Bing/Yahoo consolidation, the battle for search supremacy can't help but become more exciting. But it may take another major shake-up to really make this a race.

Reporting Television Viewership in 2009

Tue, 25 Aug 2009 13:09:49 -0500

What does it mean to "watch TV" in 2009? Endless choices abound for television viewers in a world where TiVo, Hulu, Netflix, Roku and myriad other distribution, recording and exclusive content options exist. As researchers measuring all manner of consumer behavior, we are constantly adapting our ways of asking about and analyzing these behaviors in order to get a true read on the who/when/why/what/how.

Take for example recent survey questions I've seen on TV viewership, asking respondents to "mark all channels (you) watched in the past week" and "mark all days and times (you) watched those channels." Questions of this type are difficult for respondents to answer because it is not uncommon for a TiVo user watching a program recorded days earlier or someone streaming a recent network episode on Hulu to be unaware of the day, time and channel in which that program originally aired. Perhaps a better measure of this type of reported (rather than measured) consumer behavior would be to simply ask what shows were watched, and then match those shows up with known channels and time slots, but then how does one account for syndication?

With the recent announcement of a consortium looking to eventually compete with longtime television ratings monopoly Nielsen, critics of the current ratings provider cite a lack of precision and accuracy of the data. They note particular opposition to methods (or lack thereof) of measuring TV consumption online and on mobile devices. Google and online advertising campaign management tools have conditioned marketers to expect a much greater level of detail (and quantity) in reporting analytics, so it is difficult for those same buyers to accept the relative "fuzziness" of self-reported viewership. Yet, without survey (vs. server) data in the mix, the numbers are meaningless. In order to effectively measure the continually changing media landscape, we have a responsibility to also continually improve our survey research and design practices--but those who seek an approximation of online clickstream data for offline television viewers also have to be prepared to accept that the game is changing for all involved, and both sides have to work together to find an acceptable (and cost-effective!) alternative.