Our friend David Evans is one of resourcepersons in the TV special. Personally, I hope to hear a focus on site analytics and profile generation tools instead of compatibility algorithms.

Terrible hot summer here in South America. Still waiting if eHarmony Inc. is going to launch a new online dating site using the 16PF5 test or similar before Valentine’s Day. Perhaps Match also launches a new site because: Lack Of Innovation & Decadence can summarize the Online Dating Industry 2011.

Traffic of paid dating sites declined sharply during 2011 and continues.

The CNBC’s “Love at First Byte: The Secret Science of Online Dating” will be aired Thursday, February 9th 9PM ET/PT

Love at First Byte: The Secret Science of Online Dating Preview
Nearly one in three single adults in the United States have tried online dating, changing the social landscape and turning math and computer experts into digital matchmakers. CNBC takes you inside a multi-billion-dollar business.

Business of Dating
In the business of love, there are high-tech venture capitalists, psychologists and software engineers. The rise in online dating has also revived the old-world industry of personal matchmakers who believe even the best computer equation can’t outmatch human intuition.

Many online dating sites, like Chemistry, PerfectMatch, even Match through affiliates; offer a 3 days free trial now. But those free trials are hoaxes, they promote: register for free, try to use the site for free, but if you want, you should pay the fee.

eHarmony Japan was ready to launch since months ago, but never launched, buried/abandoned.

This February 11th, Mr. Jeremy Verba will achieve 6 months in his tenure as eHarmony Inc.’s CEO. That day, He should launch eHarmony Inc.’s new site  using the normative 16PF5 personality test or similar to innovate in the Online Dating Industry.

eHarmony Inc.’s biggest competitor is IAC (nasdaq IACI), the owner of Match, Chemistry, Meetic, MeeticAffinity, MatchAffinity, DatingDirectAffinity, OkCupid, SinglesNet, ParPerfeito, PeoPleMedia’s Communities and many more sites; all are old & obsolete sites.
But as per Q4 2011 results, they are in decadence.
Total paid subscribers Match Core + Match Developing + Meetic
Q3: 2,748,000
Q4: 2,696,000
Match Core consists of Match in the United States, Chemistry and People Media.
Match Developing consists of OkCupid, SinglesNet, mobile-only products and non-Meetic international operations.
Meetic consists of the publicly traded personals company Meetic S.A., which operates principally in Europe.

Traffic of paid dating sites declined sharply during 2011 and continues.
Worldwide there are less than 7 million paid members (adding up all the ones at eHarmony, eDarling, Match, Chemistry, Meetic, MeeticAffinity, OkCupid, PeopleMedia’s Communities, PlentyOfFish, Parship, eCift, etc).
The IAC needs to launch a new online dating site and try to innovate in the Online Dating Industry soon.

Can an Algorithm Really Predict Romance?
will be aired Feb. 9th 2012 at 9:00 pm ET/PT CNBC

USA
23+ million singles (registered at online dating sites)
USD 2 billion revenue

Love at First Byte: The Secret Science of Online Dating
<iframe width=”448″ height=”252″ src=”http://www.youtube.com/embed/TgM0Y3O_jLU” frameborder=”0″ allowfullscreen></iframe>

Of course actual online dating sites offering compatibility matching methods are only fueled by big marketing budgets and not by serious scientific evidence. No one (eHarmony, Chemistry, etc) can prove its matching algorithm can match prospective partners who will have more stable and satisfying relationships than couples matched by chance, astrological destiny, personal preferences, searching on one’s own, or other technique as the control group in a peer reviewed Scientific Paper. They are all like placebo!

Lack Of Innovation & Decadence can summarize the Online Dating Industry 2011.
The Online Dating Industry is performing like the Pharmaceutical and Cosmetic Industry before the USA Food and Drug Administration was created.
The Online Dating Industry needs Innovations!!! But innovations are not adding more bells and whistles to actual online dating sites. Or launching new ones with the same stupidities as the old ones saying “the first dating social network”.
Only 3 major discoveries can help to revolutionize the online dating industry.
I) Several studies showing contraceptive pills users make different mate choices, on average, compared to non-users. “Only short-term but not long-term partner preferences tend to vary with the menstrual cycle”
II) People often report partner preferences that are not compatible with their choices in real life. (FORGET Behavioural recommender systems or other system that learns your preferences)
III) What is important in attracting people to one another may not be important in making couples happy. Compatibility is all about a high level on personality similarity between prospective mates for long term mating with commitment.

They show your personality traits (Big 5 model) compared to the average of eDarling’s users, and not compared to a sample of individuals with the same demographic characteristics of the population of Spain for eDarling Spanish version. (as the 16PF5 does)
And they can not show you Compatibility Distribution Curves.

… Dr. Eli Finkel (Northwestern University), Schwartz’s younger colleague in the behavioral sciences, who staked out his own territory as industry-scold, denouncing eHarmony, one of the largest dating sites in the world and the first to market a scientific approach to matching. eHarmony has refused to reveal its algorithm, Finkel said, and therefore the company should not advertise a scientific approach to matching until it can show, publicly, that its system works according to the standards of scientific rigor. “

I hope this time, the executives attending iDate 2012 can talk about THE INNOVATIONS the Online Dating Industry needs!

I remember I had been reading/analyzing iDate conferences since 2004 and unfortunately the main speaker, every year, year over year, had been regurgitating the same statistics, talking the same rubbish because attendees come to Miami to discuss stupidities, as usual in every iDate conference, and not the big Agenda.
There is no Legislation, no ID verification, low reliable background checks, no Quality Norms, except for Shaadi. No online dating site is Scientifically Proven.
The Online Dating Industry needs to kill the Matchmaking Industry. There is no room for both, like computers killed typewriters, but now C-Level executives are more worried about their golf scores than their company’s long term strategy and innovations.
Traffic of paid dating sites declined sharply during 2011 and continues.
Online Dating for serious daters is performing as a Big Online Casino, with low successful rates.
Worldwide there are less than 7 million paid members (adding up all the ones at eHarmony, eDarling, Match, Chemistry, Meetic, MeeticAffinity, OkCupid, PeopleMedia’s Communities, PlentyOfFish, Parship, eCift, etc). The market remains enormous for new players.
Online Dating for serious daters does not need to be more social, it needs to be more effective, more efficient.
The biggest scammers in the Online Dating Industry are not from Ghana or Nigeria because they are precisely marketing executives from big sites. They use credit card billing trickery, automatic rebilling.
eHarmony Brazil failed because NO ONE uses credit cards in South America, they pay in cash or using debit cards in one-time transaction. eHarmony Japan never launched.

Lack Of Innovation & Decadence can summarize the Online Dating Industry 2011.
The Online Dating Industry is performing like the Pharmaceutical and Cosmetic Industry before the USA Food and Drug Administration was created.
Soon it will be 1 year eHarmony, PlentyOfFish, Match and Meetic were hacked at the same time.

The Online Dating Industry needs Innovations!!! But innovations are not adding more bells and whistles to actual online dating sites. Or launching new ones with the same stupidities as the old ones saying “the first dating social network”.

WorldWide, there are over 5,000 online dating sites, but no one is using the 16PF5 (or similar test like 15FQ+) to assess personality of its members yet.
WorldWide, there are over 5,000 online dating sites, but no one calculates compatibility between prospective mates with 8 decimals to show compatibility distribution curves for each and every dater.
Soon eHarmony Inc. will launch a new site, based on strict personality similarity using a copycat of the 16PF5 to replace eHarmony. Match will do the same to replace Chemistry. Both eHarmony & Chemistry are old & obsolete sites.
Wait and see if they can show compatibility distribution curves for every dater.

In compatibility matching methods there are 2 steps:
1) to objectively measure personality traits or other human variables (with the 16PF5 test) without distortion.
2) to calculate compatibility between prospective mates

IPSATIVE personality tests are OBSOLETE (self-descriptive questionnaires) and should be discarded: MBTI (PerfectMatch), DISC (ThomasKnowsPeople), Enneagram (Dopasowani) or other proprietary ipsative tests like the ones used at Chemistry, ButterfliesAgain, Doskonalapara, PembePanjur, LittleHint, oneGoodLove and others.
NORMATIVE personality tests like Big5 versions used at PlentyOfFish, eHarmony / eDarling, Meetic Affinity, Parship, Be2, True, etc. are good for orientative purposes but not good enough for predictive purposes.

“Because the Big Five groups the more specific primary-level factors, feedback organized around the five Global Factor scales is more easily understood. For detailed feedback or predictive purposes, one should assess the more specific primary factors. Research has shown that more specific factors like the primary scales of the 16PF Questionnaire predict actual behavior better than the Big 5 Global Factors. For example, one extravert (a bold, fearless, high-energy type) may differ considerably from another (a sweet, warm, sensitive type), depending on the extraversion-related primary scale score patterns, so deeper analysis is typically warranted.” Extracted from the 16PF5 Manual

WorldWide, there are over 5,000 -five thousand- online dating sites
but no one is using the 16PF5 to assess personality of its members!
but no one calculates similarity with a quantized pattern comparison method!
but no one can show Compatibility Distribution Curves to each and every of its members!
but no one is scientifically proven!

Normative tests can not simply be translated, because you need the norm for that test, and that norm is actualized each and every time Census Figures are released

eHarmony / eDarling, True, PerfectMatch, MeeticAffinity, Parship, Be2, PlentyOfFish, Chemistry and others are in the range of 3 to 4 persons compatible per 1,000 persons screened. Any member of those sites receives on average 3 to 4 prospective mates as compatible for dating purposes per 1,000 (one thousand) members screened in the database. So in a 10,000,000 persons database, any member will see 30,000 to 40,000 members as highly compatible; 30,000 persons is the population of an average small city. Any person can achieve 3 to 4 persons as highly compatible per 1,000 persons screened, searching by his/her own or by mutual filtering methods!

eHarmony / eDarling, True, PerfectMatch, MeeticAffinity, Parship, Be2, PlentyOfFish, Chemistry and others have a low effectiveness/efficiency level of their matching algorithms.
The Online Dating Industry does not need a 10% improvement, a 50% improvement or a 100% improvement. It does need “a 100 times better improvement”

The matching algorithms used by eHarmony/eDarling, Chemistry and others, are like the Wright R-3350 Duplex-Cyclone used in the Boeing B-29 Superfortress, useless at all to ……. break sound barrier!!!

Breaking “the online dating sound barrier” is to achieve at least:
3 most compatible persons in a 100,000 persons database.
12 most compatible persons in a 1,000,000 persons database.
48 most compatible persons in a 10,000,000 persons database.
100 times better than Compatibility Matching Algorithms used by actual online dating sites!

The only way to achieve that is:
- using the 16PF5 normative personality test, available in different languages to assess personality of members, or a proprietary test with exactly the same traits of the 16PF5. The ensemble of the 16PF5 is: 10E16, big number as All World Population is nearly 7.0 * 10E9 (estimated OCT 2011)
(7.0 * 10E9) / 10E16 == 7.0 * 10E(-7) or 0.7 * 10E(-6) or 0.7 micro part!
All World Population is less than 0.7 micro part of the 16PF5′s ensemble.
- expressing compatibility with eight decimals, like:
The pattern 6.7.6.8.9.6.7.7.8.7.2.5.8.7.3.4 is 92.55033557%  +/- 0.00000001%
similar to the pattern 7.7.6.8.8.7.6.5.8.7.4.5.7.7.3.4
Using a quantized pattern comparison method (part of pattern recognition by cross-correlation) to calculate similarity between prospective mates.

That is the only way to revolutionize the Online Dating Industry.

All other proposals are ………….. NOISE
—————————

The 16PF5 test is available in
- English for the United States and the Norm for the United States (sample of individuals with the same demographic characteristics of the United States).
- English for Canada and the Norm for Canada (sample of individuals with the same demographic characteristics of Canada)
- English for the United Kingdom and the Norm for the United Kingdom (sample of individuals with the same demographic characteristics of the United Kingdom).
- English for Australia and the Norm for Australia (sample of individuals with the same demographic characteristics of Australia).
- French for France and the Norm for France.
- German for Germany and the Norm for Germany.
- Spanish for Spain and the Norm for Spain.
- Italian for Italy and the Norm for Italy.
and many more “With over 60 years of research and application behind it, the 16PF5 has become internationally well known and respected, with over 20 different translated versions.”

The output of the 16PF5 test are 16 variables STens (Standard Tens) taking integer values from 1 to 10. STens divide the score scale into ten units.
STens have the advantage that they enable results to be thought of in terms of bands of scores, rather than absolute raw scores. These bands are narrow enough to distinguish statistically significant differences between candidates, but wide enough not to over emphasize minor differences between candidates.

e.g.
the 16PF5 Brazilian version, in Portuguese for Brazil and the Norm for Brazil (sample of individuals with the same demographic characteristics of Brazil).
Brazil population is in the range of 190 million persons, 190 * 10E6 == 1.9 * 10E8.
demographic characteristics of Brazil 47.73% White, 43.13% Brown (Multiracial), 7.61% Black, 1.09% Asian, 0.43% Amerindian
(1.9 * 10E8)/ 10E16 == 1.9 * 10E(-8) or 0.019 * 10E(-6) or 0.019 micro part!

Brazil population is 0.019 micro part of the 16PF5′s ensemble. You can not use simple regression equations to calculate similarity between quantized patterns because:
* women will “see” men as all the same.
* men will “see” women as all the same.

Do you want to know how to solve that problem?

new CEO, new site, new matching algorithm, soon!

Many of you are well aware about the:

* Dannon’s Activia, DanActive health claims draw USD21M fine.
Dannon in USA — part of the world’s biggest yogurt maker Danone— agreed to pay a USD21 million fine and stop making exaggerated health claims for two popular Dannon products under a settlement with the federal government and attorneys general from 39 states last December 2010. “Companies like Dannon shouldn’t exaggerate the strength of scientific support.”
* Power Balance Bracelets lawsuit
* The PIP breast implants scandal.
The 2010 was the year of the “PIP scandal”. Thousands of women throughout the world carrying a time bomb: prosthesis with uncertified gel, increased risk of rupture and leak into ganglions, increase risk of developing capsular contractures.

* and some “weak” lawsuits againts online dating sites like:
More Than Half Of Match Profiles Are Inactive Or Fake
Exactly the same can be applied for the Online Dating Industry: eHarmony/eDarling, Chemistry, PerfectMatch, PlentyOfFishChemistryPredictor, MeeticAffinity, Parship, Be2, and others.
eHarmony, a 11+ years old obsolete site, uses a Compatibility Matching Algorithm based on personality similarity with the Big5 normative personality test and Dyadic Adjustment Scale (invented by Dr. Graham B. Spanier in 1976) as its core. The Guided Communication Process (a mutual filtering step) is an appendix of its main matching algorithm.
eHarmony is not “scientifically proven” because eHarmony Labs could not prove eHarmony’s matching algorithm can match prospective partners who will have more stable and satisfying relationships -and very low divorce rates- than couples matched by chance, astrological destiny, personal preferences, searching on one’s own, or other technique as the control group in a peer reviewed Scientific Paper.
Any CEO needs to show success, achievements during his/her tenure.
eHarmony Inc. new CEO had never talked in public or with the press during last 5 months, since he began his tenure.

Many Online dating sites are obsolete, and eHarmony Inc. plans to launch a new site.

eHarmony Japan was live, ready, fully developed since September 2011 but never launched, silently buried.
eHarmony Inc. IPO is inviable now.
eHarmony Inc. had been launching several sites during last 11 years including Jazzed as a social dating site and partnered with eDarling in Europe.
It has presence in: USA, Canada, UK, Australia, Brazil, Spain, Italy, France, Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Sweden, the Netherlands, Poland, Turkey and Russia.
Jazzed had failed. BetterDateDE failed. eHarmony Japan never launched. Kaori Kitagawa no longer Japan Product Manager as per her LinkedIn public profile.
eDarling can not take off in any country it operates.
eHarmony USA, Canada, UK, Australia and Brazil in decadence.
eHarmony claims 12 million users, now in 2012.
eHarmony Inc. has 2 options.
One, die peacefully, going directly to bankruptcy.
The other, try to innovate with a new independent site.

The license of the 16PF5 cost USD 2 million for 100,000 persons (at USD 20 per test taker)
For 12 million users, it could cost as low as USD 5 per test taker, i.e. USD 60 million, nearly half of eHarmony Inc. annual advertisement budget!

you had seen eHarmony’s Compatibility Matching Algorithm consists of 2 stages.
* A mutual filtering stage, which is  common to any online dating site like PlentyOfFish, Match, Chemistry, True, PerfectMatch, Parship, MeeticAffinity, OkCupid, Be2, FriendScout24, etc.
* The core stage.

Unfortunately eHarmony was designed during year 2000, more than 11 years ago. The 3 milestone discoveries of the 2001 – 2010 decade about Theories of Romantic Relationships Development with commitment revealed:
I) Several studies showing contraceptive pills users make different mate choices, on average, compared to non-users. “Only short-term but not long-term partner preferences tend to vary with the menstrual cycle”
II) People often report partner preferences that are not compatible with their choices in real life.  [uncovered by Eastwick & Finkel (2008); Kurzban & Weeden (2007); Todd, Penke, Fasolo, & Lenton (2007)] (FORGET Behavioural recommender systems or other system that learns your preferences)
III) The strict personality similarity axis. What is important in attracting people to one another may not be important in making couples happy. Compatibility is all about a high level on personality* similarity* between prospective mates for long term mating with commitment.
*personality measured with a normative test (the majority of the sites are using the Big5 inventory, no one uses the 16PF5 test or equivalent, yet).
*similarity: there are different ways to calculate similarity, it depends on how mathematically is defined.

Also Personality Based Recommender Systems are the next generation of recommender systems because they perform FAR better than Behavioural ones (past actions and pattern of personal preferences)
That is the only way to improve recommender systems, to include the personality traits
of their users and they need to calculate personality similarity between them.

Actual online dating sites offering compatibility matching methods are old and obsolete. No one is scientifically proven and all of them are performing as placebo.
(to be continued in part 3)

—————————

An exercise of similarity.

The triangle? The circle? The square?

It depends of what “similar” means!

The area of the red triangle is more similar to the area of the dark blue ellipse than the area of the yellow circle and the area of the light blue square.
The shape of the yellow circle is more similar to the shape of the dark blue ellipse than the shape of the red triangle and the shape of the light blue square.
The color of the light blue square is more similar to the color of the dark blue ellipse than the color of the red triangle and the color of the yellow circle.

Hot summer for eHarmony Brazil and eHarmony Australia.
Cold winter for eHarmony USA, Canada and UK.
eHarmony USA, Canada, UK, Australia and Brazil in decadence, losing traffic according to Alexa.
It seems the “Someone viewed your Profile” to encourage you to subscribe did not work!

Even PlentyOfFish had dropped in traffic rank, and I do not think it is due to high volumen mobile applications’ adoption rate.

eHarmony’s Inc. will need to launch the new site to replace eHarmony as soon as possible.

Many of you had studied the normal (or Gaussian) distribution; a continuous probability distribution that has a bell-shaped probability density function.

Other well known distributions are discrete probability distribution.

But, which is the compatibility distribution curve using the NORMATIVE 16PF5 personality test for any given person?
Nobody had published that information for public or Academic scrutiny yet, because
Worldwide, there are over 5,000 -five thousand- online dating sites
but no one is using the 16PF5 to assess personality of its members!
but no one calculates similarity with a quantized pattern comparison method!
but no one can show Compatibility Distribution Curves to each and every of its members!
but no one is scientifically proven!

My bet, an AVERAGE compatibility (personality similarity) distribution curve using the 16PF5 test is a curve that resembles the SHAPE of the normal distribution;

but EACH compatibility (personality similarity) distribution curve using the 16PF5 test for ANY given person is not necessarily a curve like the normal distribution.

for men and women, normal_persons* over 26 years old.
*normal_persons: persons with 23 pairs of chromosomes and any psycho-patologies.

If you are a dater please do not renew your eHarmony’s subscription or Chemistry’s subscription yet. eHarmony’s team plans to launch a completely new site in few weeks, before February 2012, using a copycat of the 16PF5 to assess personality, instead of the Big5. NEW SITE AND NEW MATCHING ALGORITHM because they are alerted that Match’s Team is testing a new compatibility matching algorithm using the 16PF5 test, to replace Chemistry, a 6+ years old and obsolete site based on an IPSATIVE personality model, which also has a low success rate and high level of false positives.
I will be posting screenshots and insightful comments soon, comparing both proposals and check if they can break the “online dating sound barrier” or not.

I had challenged both eHarmony and Match to show those Compatibility Distribution Curves for each and every dater, i.e. how compatible you are with the rest of the daters.

I can click on the “Reactivate My Subscription” to turn auto-renew on for 1 month at the full price, but I can’t enter any codes or tell it to auto-renew for a different length, say, for a 3-month subscription instead of only 1 month. So, I can either auto-renew at 1 month, or not renew at all. Is anyone else having this problem? Or does anyone know any way around it?

I am anxiously waiting the new sites to be launched by eHarmony Inc. and IAC’s Personals!

If you are a dater please do not renew your eHarmony’s subscription or Chemistry’s subscription yet. eHarmony’s Team plans to launch a completely new site in few weeks.

eHarmony Inc.’s biggest competitor is IAC (Nasdaq IACI). IAC’s Personals owns Match, Chemistry, PeopleMedia’s Communities, SinglesNet, OkCupid, Meetic, MeeticAffinity and Parperfeito (Brazil).

eHarmony Labs:
The new eHarmony’s CEO had ordered eHarmony’s Team to develop a new high precision compatibility matching algorithm by strict personality similarity using the NORMATIVE 16PF5 or similar test and launch it in a new site before February 2012 to replace eHarmony, a 11+ years old obsolete site based on the normative Big5 model which has a low success rate and high level of false positives.
eHarmony’s Team had also buried/abandoned eHarmony Japan to focus in the new site. If they fail with the new site, eHarmony Inc. will go directly to bankruptcy.

OkCupid Labs:
Match Latam had recently launched a NEW compatibility matching system named CUPID which does not include any personality test. It is available in Spanish (Castilian), Rioplatense Spanish (uses voseo), English, French, Portuguese and German.
It is a mutual filtering method combined with a behavioural recommender system (most probably quite similar to the UltraMatch feature from PlentyOfFish / POF). Of course it is not going to revolutionize the Online Dating Industry. It is a HOAX, only for fun purposes, performing as an ice-breaker.

Match’s Team is preparing a new compatibility matching algorithm using the 16PF5 test, to replace Chemistry, a 6+ years old obsolete site based on an IPSATIVE personality model, which also has a low success rate and high level of false positives.

In compatibility matching methods there are 2 steps:
1) to objectively measure personality traits or other human variables (with the 16PF5 test) without distortion.
2) to calculate compatibility between prospective mates
I had challenged both eHarmony Labs and OkCupid Labs to offer Compatibility Distribution Curves for each and every dater, i.e. how compatible you are with the rest of the daters.

Stay tuned, both titans will launch their sites soon!

See traffic rank by Alexa of those sites.

Jazzed had failed. BetterDateDE failed. eHarmony Japan never launched. Kaori Kitagawa no longer Japan Product Manager as per her LinkedIn public profile.
eDarling can not take off in any country it operates.
eHarmony USA, Canada, UK, Australia and Brazil in decadence.

Now eHarmony Inc. has 2 options.
One, die peacefully, going directly to bankruptcy.
The other, try to innovate with a new independent site.

eHarmony Inc. had launched several sites during last 11 years including Jazzed as a social dating site and partnered with eDarling in Europe with low success rate.

Now eHarmony Inc. has 2 options.

One, die peacefully, going directly to bankruptcy.

The other, try to innovate with a new independent site as eHarmony Inc. had failed in Brazil and they do not want to fail in Japan, because the Big 5 test sees all Japanese as all the same.
eHarmony, a 11+ years old obsolete site, uses a Compatibility Matching Algorithm based on personality similarity with the Big5 normative personality test and Dyadic Adjustment Scale (invented by Dr. Graham B. Spanier in 1976) as its core. The Guided Communication Process (a mutual filtering step) is an appendix of its main matching algorithm. It is a HOAX; with no scientific support and low effective level, low success rate, less than 10%; performing as placebo.
eHarmony Inc. may be doing some proofs before launching that new online dating site based solely on strict personality similarity using a copycat of the 16PF5 test as all the new & fresh research shows STRICT personality similarity as the right road to go.

It seems eHarmony Japan was live, ready, fully developed since September 2011 but never launched.
Why?
Its subscribe offer says “3 months free from 6 October 2011 to 31 December 2011″?

eHarmony, a 11+ years old obsolete site, uses a Compatibility Matching Algorithm based on personality similarity with the Big5 normative personality test and Dyadic Adjustment Scale (invented by Dr. Graham B. Spanier in 1976) as its core. The Guided Communication Process (a mutual filtering step) is an appendix of its main matching algorithm.

eHarmony is not “scientifically proven” because eHarmony Labs could not prove eHarmony’s matching algorithm can match prospective partners who will have more stable and satisfying relationships -and very low divorce rates- than couples matched by chance, astrological destiny, personal preferences, searching on one’s own, or other technique as the control group in a peer reviewed Scientific Paper.

eHarmony’s Compatibility Matching Algorithm consists of 2 stages.
* A mutual filtering stage common to any online dating site like PlentyOfFish, Match, Chemistry, True, PerfectMatch, Parship, MeeticAffinity, OkCupid, Be2, FriendScout24, etc.
* The core stage.

The mutual filtering stage includes your race, age range, physical appearance, income, religion, leisure activities and sports, skills, location, drinking and smoking habits, likes & dislikes, if you want children or if you have children under 18 living with you, pets, etc. and the same items you will desire in any prospective partner.

The core stage of eHarmony’s Compatibility Matching Algorithm:
1) The normative Big5 test to assess personality (The Big 5 is good for orientative purposes but not good enough for predictive purposes)
2) Dyadic Adjustment Scale (invented in 1976) to calculate compatibility (similarity) between prospective mates.
3) The Guided Communication Process (a mutual filtering step) designed to narrow even more the field of persons you give a better chance of getting along with, and also it is useful for feedback purposes.

(to be continued in part 2)

In 2012 eHarmony claims 12 million users.
In Latin America, Match claims 30 million users.

But how many of those 12 million users claimed by eHarmony are active?
My bet: less than 1 million, so 1M/12M is 8.33%.
8.33% of eHarmony’s database is useful.
The rest, 11 million are inactive or fake profiles!!!

As for Match Latam, which also owns Meetic (ParPerfeito in Brazil), my bet is: only 200,000 paying members in Latin American countries (Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Venezuela, Argentina, Chile, Bolivia, Peru, Uruguay, Paraguay, Ecuador)
200,000/30M is 0.67%, i.e. less than 1% of Match Latam database is useful.

He was never interviewed or never talked in public about eHarmony’s plans, long term strategy.
It is quite intriguing, as the calm before a storm, as the radio silence period that precedes a major attack, in this case perhaps a big announcement (new site with new matching algorithm to replace eHarmony).

During the 2011: Groupon, Pandora, Zynga, LinkedIn, Angie’s List, Zillow and many others dotcom companies reached their IPOs. On average they have 66x multipliers instead of 15x. It is clearly a tech bubble.
Facebook, Twitter, Yelp and others plan their IPOs during 2012.

Last April 2011, GreenCrest Capital valued eHarmony in the USD700-USD900 million range.
I do not think Mr. Verba is planning eHarmony’s IPO, so the venture funds which had put over USD110 million can recover the money,  because eHarmony is only supported by a big marketing budget and not by serious scientific evidence.

The brains of eHarmony Labs will be there presenting the poster
Assortative Mating, Personality Similarity, and Relationship Satisfaction in Committed Gay Male and Lesbian Relationships
Gian Gonzaga1, Heather Setrakian1, Erina Lee1; 1eHarmony Labs
Poster B322, Friday, January 27, 8:00 – 9:30 am, Sails Pavilion
This study investigated how personality similarity related to relationship satisfaction among committed gay and lesbian couples. Couples who were more similar in personality reported higher levels of relationship satisfaction after controlling for stereotype similarity and the main effects of personality. Implications for understanding the underpinnings of relationship commitment are discussed.

One year ago, in January 2011, they presented:
“Assortative mating, convergence, and satisfaction in married couples”

1. GIAN C. GONZAGA
2. STEVE CARTER
3. J. GALEN BUCKWALTER

Article first published online: 8 NOV 2010 DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-6811.2010.01309.x

“This work investigates assortative mating and convergence in personality and their effect on marital satisfaction. Measures of personality were collected from a sample of married couples before they met and twice after they were married. Results showed evidence for assortative mating but not for convergence in an average couple. Similarity and convergence in personality predicted later marital satisfaction. These results indicate that similarity and convergence in psychological characteristics may benefit relationships and that while spouses may choose partners with similar personalities they do not become more like their partners in the early part of their marriage.”

The poster  “Similarity predicts relationship satisfaction in Brazil” at the 12th Annual Meeting of the Society for Personality and Social Psychology, January 27-29, 2011
Erina Lee1, Gian C. Gonzaga1,2; 1eHarmony Labs, 2University of California, Los Angeles
Two studies investigated the impact of similarity on relationship satisfaction in Brazil.
In study 1, couples’ independent ratings of similarity across personality, values, and interests predicted satisfaction.
In study 2, perceived similarity in personality and interests (coded from open-ended text) predicted satisfaction.
Results support the importance of similarity in relationships.

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All the new & fresh research shows STRICT personality similarity between prospective mates for long term mating with commitment as the right road to go.  But there are different ways to assess personality and there are different ways to calculate similarity. Thus, “personality similarity” is a broad concept.

eHarmony’s personality similarity approach is correct, but how eHarmony assesses personality (intoxicated with Big5) and how eHarmony calculates similarity (low precision method) is incorrect. Mr. Verba, the new eHarmony’s CEO had ordered eHarmony Labs’s Team (Carter, Gonzaga, Lee) to develop a completely new matching algorithm using a copycat of the 16PF5 to assess personality, instead of the Big5. They plan to launch in few weeks because eHarmony had stayed 11 years in the Online Dating Industry without innovating, saying “scientifically proven” and eHarmony does not have any proof; with a low success rate and high level of false positives.