Elliott Wave Technology

A Simple Solution to Grow Your Long-Term Savings and Investment Capital

2013-06-17T21:08:00.000-04:00

Are you happy with your long-term investment results?

Are you worried about another prolonged market decline, economic downturn, or worse? read more >>

War on Humanity

2013-06-10T21:14:00.001-04:00

We interrupt your malleable consciousness from the soft effects of tyranny in the US and the hard effects of tyranny occurring in Istanbul to bring you a short assessment of the human condition.

At this stage of evolutionary development, despite humanity’s magnificent accomplishments and advancements, it is painfully clear that the dominant species residing upon this Earth is slowly but surely intent upon destroying itself.

Read more »

Gold Standard 2013

2013-05-25T00:08:00.001-04:00

The following video is one of the most important documentary shorts that you will view in your lifetime.

It’s Time For A Prudent & Practical Solution

Gold Standard 2013 may well be the epicenter for such a solution. View the documentary, go there, explore the site and mission statements, sign the petition, take action, and take pride and responsibility for taking your country back on September 4, 2013.

Silver Prophecy

2013-05-17T02:12:00.001-04:00

Foreknowledge for which those in silver thirst, cannot the wise men, astrologers, magicians, and soothsayers show unto them; but there is evidence that may reveal such knowledge, and make known to them what may be in latter days.

As for thee, O stacker, a vision of the hereafter came into my mind upon my throne: and that which reveals such foreknowledge, I shall make known to thee what may come to pass...Thou, O stacker, you shall see here, and behold the great image.

This is It

2013-04-28T05:13:00.001-04:00

“Wow, holy shit Batman, what an April this has turned out to be. Between the Boston Marathon bombings, the blast in West Texas, the collapse in precious metals, and the stock market trading at all time highs, what else could possibly explode before month’s end.” -Superman

Since I have been extremely hard at work preparing to launch an incredibly invaluable tool for long-term investors, I will be foregoing my typical weekly article with this brief and important communication instead.

S.E.R.C.E

Until we get back to our regular schedule, if you wish to get a sense for real-time issues that we consider important, you can keep up to date with this information free on our FB page or at the SERCE Group, which is Elliott Wave Technology’s Social & Economically Relevant Curatorial Exchange.

In addition to breaking news, the SERCE may include fast breaking real-time market updates such as the short-term Silver update posted on April 18 wherein we cited specific parameters for an imminent 3.66% move up to the $24.60 level.

As EWT’s SERCE duly recorded on April 27, we informed readers of the exchange that we had indeed captured the previously cited target of $24.60 that Friday.

No, SERCE is not it.

THIS IS IT.

We will quickly wrap this up with a brief tease on our soon to launch solution that is guaranteed to blow your mind. The three most notable attributes of the new Long-Term Trend Monitor are:

It’s simple, low maintenance, easy to follow, and a breeze to replicate
It’s extraordinarily affordable (we’re virtually giving this lethal weapon away)
And most importantly; It Works

Finally, an honest to goodness Holy Grail for long-term Investors is here.

Let’s face reality here folks, the financial system and modern-day monetary order is riddled with flaws and uncertainty.

Until we witness radical changes in the form of a new monetary order and the novel establishment of truly free markets, we have no other choice but to operate and manage a significant portion of our surplus savings and investments within the current set of existing constraints.

Enter the ACTION-ALERT MONITOR: Exclusive S&P 500 Index and Precious Metals Focus

In response to the extreme level of uncertainty and systemic coercion to invest in equities or suffer the anguish of being left behind, the forthcoming long-term investment monitor will also track and provide long-term alerts for Gold and Silver, which we highly recommend holding in physical form as a tangible component within every long-term investment portfolio.

As such, long-term bullion investors of every stripe will soon have access to a quantified reliable means of acquiring relevant Action-Alerts that will provide them with a timely heads-up as to when it is most prudent to hedge their physical holdings by shorting the paper futures markets or by using inverse ETF’s.

Whether we like the current financial system or not, in order to effectively grow and protect our life savings, most of us maintain long-term exposure to stocks via index funds. Either play the game well or languish, it’s that simple.

For added assurance, we strongly suggest an essential 10-20% allocation of net worth toward physical gold and silver to balance the tangible asset component of our investment portfolios with the rest of our mandatory paper asset investments.

The Absolute Best Assurance Money can Buy

For absolute quantified unequivocal proof, check this long-term investment strategy’s 21-year performance in staying on the right side of the S&P 500.

If this is not the Holy Grail for timing long-term investment exposure to the S&P 500 index – then one shall never exist. The quantified mathematics and historical performance documentation tells the whole truth and nothing but.

We will soon be making this invaluable elite membership solution available to select investors and adept money managers for an insanely low annual assurance premium. Desperate times call for Prudent Measures. As such, we sense it a noble duty to rise to the occasion and provide as much support as we possibly can to the largest number of people.

You and everyone that you know who cares anything at all about their invested nest eggs and/or physical Gold & Silver holdings will virtually kill for the chance to become lifelong members of this elite club from the moment it launches.

This is the real deal folks. We have a long-standing reputation to defend, and as such, we would never risk damaging that reputation with a promise of assurance that we were not 100% confident in delivering on.

In closing, we will leave you with a couple of sample pages from the current report in waiting. Note that the pages shown may be reduced images. The actual pages within each report and Action-Alert are full size, crisp, and delivered to your inbox clear as a bell.

Soon you will find yourself here, reading pages like these and getting timely advance notice of the next major Action-Alerts. This is it, the time is nigh – be there.

Can’t Wait?
Click here to inquire about qualifying for early access to the complete current report and immediately registering and activating your email address to the monitor’s long-term Action-Alert list prior to the official launch.

Until then,

Trade Better/Invest Smarter

Profitably Manage and Effectively Hedge your Physical Bullion

Metals Crushed, Slavery by Consent, & Slave for Profit

2013-04-13T16:50:00.001-04:00

Just ahead of the state and federal tax collectors unwelcomed arrival on April 15, the financial markets had quite an eventful week. Between the growing geopolitical tensions in North Korea, the BOJ fueling flames of a global currency war, the globalist raid on the Cyprus Central Bank, and the push toward enacting new gun legislation in the US, there was no shortage of distractions.

Today we will update the ongoing price action in silver and show you a very simple way to assure superior results from your long-term investment efforts despite our imposed and collectively consensual form of 21st bondage. Let’s start by assessing the carnage in silver.

BREAKING BAD

Much has occurred since last week’s update. The first item to note is the downside price captured upon silvers breach of the 26.23 target. Secondly, from an Elliott Wave perspective, upon the breach of 26.07, we have confirmation that a prospective (4) wave down at intermediate degree is still in the process of basing.

Despite another bullish momentum divergence, Friday’s downside price action has identified two additional downside targets. The first is 23.00, which is defended with trade and closes beneath the associated falling red trendline marked by the second “R” (for resistance) from the bottom.

More ominously, the close beneath the double-bottom support boundary becomes a mega-bearish line of resistance defending a downside price target of 15.00.

The weekly pit chart below illustrates clearly the cyclical bear market occurring in silver from its peak at 48.58 amidst a much longer-term secular bull market cycle.

If the money-masters manage a takedown beneath 15.97, all bets are off for a mega-bullish (4) wave down. Weekly momentum is racing toward extreme levels of oversold against the past backdrop of bullish confirmation at the 48.58 print high.

Dipping beneath its horizontal mid-line of secular advance at 26.70, silver is rapidly approaching a .618 retracement of its entire advance from 8.53. Despite this, as we said before, it ain’t over till it’s over – the cyclical bear market that is.

The videos below are well-worth viewing for two sets of rather illuminating long-term fundamental opinions and assessments relative to Gold and Silver.

Slavery by Consent:

In light of tax/theft season, for all of the hardened conspiracy theorists out there, and for entertainment purposes, we share a stirring take on the governments hoarding of vital statistics, namely the birth certificate and what some say it implies.

Albeit unconfirmed by additional sources, this rather intriguing story goes something like this:

After the central banking-cartels won monopoly control over money creation and the US federal income tax introduced, both of which occurred ironically in 1913, the two events more or less galvanized the perpetual enslavement of the proletariat as repayment to the Queen of England for intractable outstanding debts incurred by warring governments.

The basic argument contends that the US constitution ceased functioning in 1933, pledging its citizen’s future labor as collateral against the 1933 US bankruptcy and declaration of emergency.

Hmmm, if that were somehow true, amidst the current monetary and fiscal insolvency crisis, what might nations have left to pledge today? Well, after enslaving the citizens, I suspect the only thing left to pledge is the land and natural resources of any given nation harboring such intractable debts.
Who really knows for sure, perhaps the subversive doctrines of Agenda-21 are the cunning ways and means by which the globalists intend to do just that.

This short clip explores the advent and claimed sinister role of the birth certificate: Do enjoy.

Back to Reality (We hope)

Fortunately, as long as the Constitution still stands, any government action based on extra-constitutional powers is ipso facto unconstitutional. What America needs are congressional declarations that expose as nullities all illegally usurped powers.

In addition, the people must learn to resist the distractions of the rumor mill and, instead, generate constant and informed vigilance lest their freedoms disappear at the hands of those who always claim that they mean to rule well, but who most of all mean always to rule.

Which are You Slaving for - Profits or Losses?

Let’s face it, the vast majority of investors are of the passive type and have no business trying to pick individual stocks or attempting to time the broad markets.

For most, the clear answer to how to move up to one’s next level of success is through investing in index funds or ETF’s for the long haul.

Take clear note that we do not mean one should resign themselves to the failed myth of “buy & hold” but rather commit to employing a strategic method of staying invested in long-term trends and then getting short or into cash when the long-term trends change.

The key to such success rests with timing. By timing, we do not mean picking tops and bottoms, but instead acquiring a set-it-and forget-it monitoring system to alert one precisely when the long-term trend has sufficiently shifted to warrant consideration for immediate action.

It sounds simple, and it is - so long as one first has the patience to wait for the signals, and then summon the will and discipline to act upon the generated alert.

The last and most important ingredient essential to upping your long-term investment game is to acquire a proven and reliable strategic means by which to calibrate precisely when the long-term trend changes relative to one’s long-term investment objectives and time preferences.

Most of us have so much stress and information overload that it is easier for the majority of us to either opt-out altogether, or bury our heads in the sands of denial associated with the long-held myth of buy & hold.

There is a viable and proven solution to this age-old quandary.

For proof, check this long-term investment strategy’s 21-year performance in staying on the right side of the S&P 500. Granted, this solution is part of a complete trading package, and likely, a bit too costly and involved for the average investor invested in S&P 500 index funds for the long haul.

Given the current market conditions however, we are considering the addition of a standalone service for a limited number of members, designed specifically for long-term SP 500 index investors, and possibly another for monitoring long-term Gold and Silver trends as well.

Email if you want to get in on the ground floor of NEW low-cost investment monitors for the S&P 500, Gold/Silver, or both, and we will keep you apprised of all pending developments.

Chart-Cast Pilot

We will wrap this piece with a brief update as to how the short-term Chart-Cast Pilot portfolio is holding up amid last week’s events, particularly relative to the short-term gold trade.

Atop the short-term trading chart for gold is the end-of-day portfolio summary, which ended Friday with a balance of $12,742 dollars in open trade profits, which is absolutely phenomenal considering its modest $59 monthly premium.

The short-term trading chart for gold illustrates short positions established on April 10 from a price of 1563.30 with $8720 in open profit. That short entry took place after getting whacked for a $2200 loss on a prior long position.

Prior to that, in the daily equity panel, we show a previous short position booking $990 in profits from a prior trade. Outside the purview of the trading strategy, we also illustrate a successful trade trigger capturing 41-points of downside. Such are the slaves trading for profit.

Tangled Web Suppresses Gold & Silver

2013-04-05T02:52:00.001-04:00

The famous quote, “Oh, what a tangled web we weave when we practice to deceive” often attributed to Shakespeare, was written by Sir Walter Scott. The expression found in his 1806 literary work, Marmion: A Tale of Flodden Field, centers on the love story of two English nobles Clara and De Wilton, and Marmion, who planned to destroy their love to acquire their land.

This epic poem is about the Battle of Flodden Field (1513), a conflict between the Kingdom of England and the Kingdom of Scotland. It was an English victory and the largest battle ever fought between the two kingdoms. At the conclusion of the poem, Marmion dies on the battlefield, while De Wilton displays heroism, regains his honor, retrieves his lands, and marries Clara.

The above chart displays the ongoing twisted and tangled effects of an epic battle that is in a league of its own, the age-old battle between statist central bankers, Wall Street, politician’s, and the ruling class vs. the global proletariat.

Interwoven on this chart are the data points for five markets, which span from 1995 to present. Listed on the right axis are today’s prices for each market. From the highest nominal value to the lowest, the chart displays:

The global working-class hopes that in the end, like De Wilton and Clara, they too shall display heroism, regain their honor, retrieve their freedom, and retain for themselves the fruits of their hard-earned labor.

Despite the blatant failures and attendant frailty of the Marmion-like ruling class, a working-class victory is a long way off as statists continue to weave and impose their cunning dictates without shame, while the spellbound proletariat remains mostly dazzled or stunned by bread and circus.

Example via Kyle Bass: Keynesian Endgame Eventuality I.E. Japanese Central Bank

The Marmion-like ruling class yields most of its power through its monopoly to create money-as-debt out of thin air, and finds itself stuck between a rock and hard place as a result. Such is the web they insist upon weaving.

Either they somehow manage to orchestrate/impose another 20-years of suppressing truth as would otherwise be expressed in a free-market gold price, or they keep doubling down toward creating the horror of a global fiat currency that will permanently enslave the entire world.

One view suggests that the kingpin US central planners must keep their world-reserve fiat trading in a tightly controlled band between 83.00 on the top-end and 75.00 on the low-end. Sustained un-orderly trade above 83.00 $USD may spawn a deflationary spiral, while sustained un-orderly trade beneath 75.00 $USD may incite a hyperinflationary insolvency event, and they must keep to this tight band while maintaining control of ZIRP, the infamously ridiculous save-our-monopoly-at-all-cost zero-interest-rate policy.

Silver Update

We will introduce the latest update on the price of Silver with a re-stylized rendition of the infamous quote from the above referenced Marmion, A Tale of Flodden Field:

“Ron Paul’s sharp questions they must shun;
They struggle for truth, but there is none-
O what a tangled web they weave,
When first they practice to deceive!-
So bold-faced too! - no wonder why
They deserve rebuke beneath this lie.”-

Since the last Hedge All Bets update, there is no material change. Most notable of late was the recent tag of 26.65, which was a long-standing downside price target residing at the bottom of the capture window noted. Despite the print low at 26.57, there is one more downside target remaining for capture at 26.23.

Silver is deeply oversold and for now, sports a subtle bullish divergence vs. the 26.57 print low. Silver is rapidly nearing a double bottom support level at 26.07, a breach of which would shift this wave count to the ALT intermediate (4) wave illustrated.

Bear in mind, (pun intended), it ain’t over till it’s over. Until then, the artificially suppressed price levels of both gold and silver continue to offer physical buyers ample low-risk opportunities to continue accumulating metals to hedge the preservation of their wealth from the Marmion Dream Weavers.

The Fiat-Cliff

2013-03-22T03:46:00.001-04:00

I would like to start this piece by recommending a rather thorough and viable chart study of the US dollar by an analyst writing under the pseudonym Rambus, titled Dollar Bears Prepare to Hibernate. Rambus has produced some excellent charts in this piece along with sound analysis, and in my view, provided readers with valuable information and insights.

It is my hope that Rambus and the readership at large will not mind if I attempt to add another layer to his cogent work.

Albeit spawning from a relatively recent and still fragile signal, at present, my work also reveals a long-term bullish bias for the dollar and a contrasting bearish bias for gold. I will endeavor to add value to the good work of Rambus using a monthly bar chart going back to 1971.

The first thing I would add relative to the big-picture monthly chart from 1981 presented by Rambus, rests specifically with regard to the H&S top mentioned. That peak occurred in 2001, and more importantly, the bearish neckline associated with it, which rests near the 80.39 level was absent from the observations he shared.

This is a critical FIAT-CLIFF bearish (neck) line in the sand, which the dollar has been struggling seriously with since July of 2007. The Dollar has traded above and below the FIAT-CLIFF for nearly six years. A wide coiling pattern akin to a rather sizable flag pattern has formed, which in this case, would imply the presence of a continuation pattern with better than fair odds for an eventual bearish resolution.

I have replicated Rambus’s 4-point fractal sequence and boxed point 4 on the left, and point 1 on the right to illustrate the genesis of this major neckline. This is a line very much worth keeping a sharp eye on.

As noted in the lower right, the neckline drawn from these two points governs the active defense or suspension status of a downside price target in the low forties, which if achieved, would result in a 50% haircut from current levels.

Risk of Ruin

The final layer I wish to share surrounds what I refer to as a “risk of ruin” trajectory. When breached, risk-of-ruin-trajectories calibrate downside price targets, which for all intent and purpose virtually destroy 100% of all existing value.

Spawning from the pivot low in the late 70’s and the first point labeled 1 in the late 80’s, the thin rising trendline moving upward and to the right, ending just above the prayerful Ben, identifies a clear risk of ruin trajectory.

So long as the dollar maintains trade and closes beneath this rising trajectory, complete obliteration of the fiat currency to the tune of 90% from current levels, is a defended and working target. The FIAT-CLIFF line simply adds a level of immediate drama associated with the first 40% of a cataclysmic 90% wipeout.

Note how the risk of ruin trajectory twice rejected the dollars attempt to break above it upon twice approaching the rising resistance rail associated with right shoulder of the FIAT-CLIFF head and shoulder pattern.

Having said all that, until the shorter-term price action dictates otherwise, we remain bullish the dollar right alongside Rambus.

In wrapping up this view from 50,000 feet, each of us should hope and pray along with Ben for a sustainable rally to the 105 target, which would place the dollar-trade above the implied risk of ruin trajectory.

If such a bullish feat occurs, to remove the risk of ruin entirely, the dollar must never register a monthly close beneath that rising trajectory for if it does, the risk of ruin is back in play.

The Elliott Wave Take

Below is a long-term chart similar to the one Rambus used from 1981. I have held to this wave count (as has the dollar) for nearly a decade. This does not imply that I will be right in the end, it simply proves that I have been right thus far.

To fully appreciate our unconventional application of the theory, specifically as it relates to the above chart, please refer to “US Dollar: Wave Counts, Flight-to-Safety” penned in June of last year.

The following is brief excerpt from the above link:

As graphically inferred by the articles introductory image, there is no doubt whatsoever that since its general inception, the US dollar remains by politically exploitive design, enmeshed in a long-term secular decline toward oblivion.
The end game will play out like those of all other fiat currency throughout humankind’s history, which shall of course lead to an outright failure and the existential necessity for the country (or world) inevitably to manufacture and adopt a suitable replacement.

Until next time, Trade Better/Invest Smarter

About the Author

Since the dot.com bubble, 911, and the 2002 market crash, Elliott Wave Technology's mission remains the delivery of valuable solutions-based services that empower clients to execute successful trading and investment decisions in all market environments.

Joe Russo is an entrepreneurial publisher and market analyst providing digital online media solutions designed to assist traders and investors in prudently and profitably navigating their exposure to the financial markets.

Since the official launch of his Elliott Wave Technology website in 2005, he has established an outstanding record of accomplishment, including but not limited to, …

In 2005, he elicited a major long-term wealth producing nugget of guidance in suggesting strongly that members give serious consideration to apportioning 10%-20% of their net worth toward the physical acquisition of Gold (@ $400.) and Silver (@ $6.00).
In 2006, the (MTA) Market Technicians Association featured his article “Scaling Perceptions amid the Global Equity Boom” in their industry newsletter, “Technically Speaking.”
On May 6 of 2007, five months prior to the market top in 2007, though still bullish at that time, he publicly warned long-term investors not to be fooled again, in “Bullish Like There’s No Tomorrow.”
On March 10 of 2008, with another 48% of downside remaining to the bottom of the great bear market of 2008-2009, in “V-for Vendetta,” using the Wilshire 5000 as proxy, he publicly laid out the case for the depth and amplitude of the unfolding bear market, which marked terminal to a rather nice long-run in equity values.
Working extensively with EasyLanguage® programmer George Pruitt in 2010 and 2011, the author of “Building Winning Trading Systems with TradeStation,” he assisted in the development of several proprietary trading systems.
On February 11, 2011, he publicly made available his call for a key bottom in the long bond at 117 ‘3/32. Within a year and half from his call, the long bond rallied in excess of 30% to new all time highs in July of 2012.
For the benefit of members and his general readership, he responded to widespread levels of economic and financial uncertainty in the development of Prudent Measures in 2012.
He publicly warned of a major top in Apple on October 26, 2012 in the very early stages of a 40% decline from its all time high.

Hedge All Bets – Silver Update – Collapse of Empires

2013-03-15T23:15:00.001-04:00

From an Elliott Wave perspective, the big bullish bet for newcomers into the Silver market rests with the prospect that the 2012 low of $26.07 marked a fantastic (4) wave-basing opportunity. Despite the impulsive rocket launch to the $35.44 level last October, the market has been trending lower ever since. Recently, the market briefly dipped beneath the last common Fibonacci retracement level noted at the $28.07 mark.

The modest move higher from last pivot low of $27.96 appears corrective thus far, suggesting that lower lows remain plausible.

Back in December of last year when silver was trading north of $32, we shared a downside price-target window for wave “2” down between $29.61 and $26.65. Since then, price has breached halfway into the belly of that window, and remains there, currently hovering just north of horizontal support/resistance near $28.37.

Despite the persistent downtrend, the move down from the $35.44 pivot high is clearly corrective, suggesting that a sustainable and tradable low may be near at hand. The downward pattern is taking the form of a falling wedge, which is typically a bullish formation.

If the recent low at $27.96 terminated the “e” wave of “2” down, we should soon witness the commencement of slow, steady, and relentless rocket launch to the upside, which may or may not look back upon speeding past our standing upside price target of $47 dollars per ounce.

Should the current downside correction complicate further, another up/down sequence is likely to finish it, completing a “double-three” corrective pattern ( a,b,c,x,a,b,c ) for wave “2” down. Amid such complication, price must not breach the standing low of $26.07 or else all bets are off for a 2^nd wave down.

Until silver is able to sustain trade and closes north of $31, prospects of reaching the working downside price target noted at $26.23 remains quite possible. If upon a retest, price does breach the standing low of $26.07, wave “2” down is off the table, and such lower lows shall then become replacement candidates for the fantastic (4) terminal.

Given all of the technical and fundamental evidence in our view, opportunity remains ripe for the continued accumulation and acquisition of physical silver. With that said, one should still consider…

Hedging All Bets

In market lingo, we all know about the nature of bulls, bears, and pigs, but surprisingly, no reference to Hedgehogs, which could be associated with the prudence inherent in “hedging” one’s bets and long-term investments.

Bulls win and lose fortunes, bears win and lose fortunes, slaughtered indiscriminately are the pigs, and it may be said that hedgehogs remain solvent and profitable with strong hands throughout.

Whether you prep, stack silver, hoard cash, or invest in stocks and bonds, it is never a good idea to go “ALL-IN” in any one thing.

A far better approach to consider is making certain that you have all bases adequately covered in order to prevail and prosper amid any potential future outcomes – good, bad, or ugly.

Uncertainty is Afoot

Although unequivocally flawed, the fraud of debt-base paper money, along with the associated assets and values it deceptively measures, is likely to remain forcibly imposed for far longer than any of us could possibly imagine.

Until freed from its total enslavement, it is impossible to dismiss debt-based paper money and all that it currently values and accounts for. Although we can and should seriously consider opting-out of the fraud to every reasonable extent practical, there is simply no possible way of totally walking away and breaking free from the forcible imposition to transact in this god-forsaken currency system of perpetual bondage.

Though we can make compelling and educated guesses as to why, how and when a great monetary reset may occur, the truth is, no one knows.

When in Rome

The decline and fall of the Roman Empire took four centuries to unfold. As such, it is reasonable to consider that the decline and collapse of the Anglo/American Empire may or may not occur in our lifetimes.

Given the undeniable conditions that persist, the withdrawal pangs of entropy are well underway, and are likely to manifest in a multitude of varied iterations over the next several years and decades.

In any event, the only thing certain is that uncertainty shall continue to reign. Prospects for long-term stability and broad based societal optimism, abundance, and prosperity are slim at best.

Given this harsh reality, do not bet the ranch on an impending collapse, and do not dismiss the resiliency of a corrupt global debt-based money system – no matter how loudly it screams PONZI-SCHEME and inevitable mathematically assured failure.

Whatever you do, don’t be fooled again, and hedge like you’ve never hedged before.

The Austrian School Take on the Collapse of the Roman Empire
From Wikipedia: Historian Michael Rostovtzeff and economist Ludwig von Mises both argued that unsound economic policies played a key role in the impoverishment and decay of the Roman Empire. According to them, by the 2nd century AD, the Roman Empire had developed a complex market economy in which trade was relatively free.
Tariffs were low and laws controlling the prices of foodstuffs and other commodities had little impact because they did not fix the prices significantly below their market levels.
Enter Inflation
After the 3rd century, however, debasement of the currency (i.e., the minting of coins with diminishing content of gold, silver, and bronze) led to inflation. The price control laws then resulted in prices that were significantly below their free-market equilibrium levels.
It should, however, be noted that Constantine initiated a successful reform of the currency which was completed before the barbarian invasions of the 4th century, and that thereafter the currency remained sound everywhere that remained within the empire until at least the 11th century - at any rate for gold coins.
According to Rostovtzeff and Mises, artificially low prices led to the scarcity of foodstuffs, particularly in cities, whose inhabitants depended on trade to obtain them.
Government Losing Control
Despite laws passed to prevent migration from the cities to the countryside, urban areas gradually became depopulated and many Roman citizens abandoned their specialized trades to practice subsistence agriculture.
This, coupled with increasingly oppressive and arbitrary taxation, led to a severe net decrease in trade, technical innovation, and the overall wealth of the Empire.
Bruce Bartlett traces the beginning of debasement to the reign of Nero. He claims that the emperors increasingly relied on the army as the sole source of their power, and therefore their economic policy was driven more and more by a desire to increase military funding in order to buy the army's loyalty.

Economic Collapse
By the 3rd century, according to Bartlett, the monetary economy had collapsed. But the imperial government was now in a position where it had to satisfy the demands of the army at all costs. Failure to do so would result in the army forcibly deposing the emperor and installing a new one.
Therefore, being unable to increase monetary taxes, the Roman Empire had to resort to direct requisitioning of physical goods anywhere it could find them - for example taking food and cattle from farmers.
Civil Unrest
The result, in Bartlett's view, was social chaos, and this led to different responses from the authorities and from the common people. The authorities tried to restore order by requiring free people (i.e. non-slaves) to remain in the same occupation or even at the same place of employment.
Eventually, this practice was extended to force children to follow the same occupation as their parents. So, for instance, farmers were tied to the land, and the sons of soldiers had to become soldiers themselves.

Opting Out/Walking Away
Many common people reacted by moving to the countryside, sometimes joining the estates of the wealthy, and in general trying to be self-sufficient and interact as little as possible with the imperial authorities.
Endgame = Feudalism
Thus, according to Bartlett, Roman society began to dissolve into a number of separate estates that operated as closed systems, provided for all their own needs and did not engage in trade at all. These were the beginnings of feudalism.

Summary

History has numerous valuable lessons. Unfortunately, too few understand these lessons, and too many dismiss them. More profound is the total lack of proper education relative to the critical and existential importance of such lessons.

Life is a series of measured risks. All autonomous or coerced decisions made by individuals are nothing more than purposefully assumed risks carrying varying consequences and rewards at every level of magnitude.

To every extent practical, for most, the balance, timing, and nature of such decisions should be simplified and well hedged, especially in an increasingly complex world of conflicting information/propaganda overload.

Just as the astute insure their wealth with relevant apportionments of precious metals, and just as its prudent to be otherwise prepared and fully aware, so too is it necessary to maintain a certain level of tactical and select exposure to traditional financial assets. At present, in far too many realms of endeavor, we have no choice other than transacting/investing in traditional financial assets.

Unless you have amassed an extraordinary level of wealth that allows you to swing for the bleachers with a large all-in bet that you can comfortably afford to lose, too much concentration in any single asset class, theme, or conviction can place you in a rather uncomfortable box if things do not go as generally anticipated.

In closing, keep an open mind; be aware of all discernible truths, and follow your own rational logic in adequately hedging all of your life’s most critical bets.

Bulls Continue to Rush In - Again

2013-03-09T02:39:00.001-05:00

The perpetual reckless experiment of massive government intervention has recently launched the Dow to an all time high. Way back in June of 2009, (a mere 15-weeks following the bear market low), when the Dow was some 6700-pts or 46% lower than it is today, in an article entitled “Waiting to Exhale,” we rather presciently anticipated that the Dow would return to its 2007 high. We further remarked upon the deceptive nature and ill effects of the Fed’s statist interventions in getting it there.

“Dutifully administered by the Ponzi, debt-dealing masters of the universe, who believe they can continue to rule the world with a worthless reserve debt-based currency, only due course and time will tell if this historic injection of hyper-debt will prove to be the one of fatal overdose.

To their diabolic credit, they have been here before (sort of), and always seem to prevail in the end. After all, the powers of mass denial are the building blocks of bubbles and manias. So long as frightened patients are still breathing, the doctors of debt will medicate them with steady doses of stimuli until they start believing that the good sensations are real and the good old days are back.
The gravity of such distortions carries the outlandish possibility of eventually delivering a hallucinogenic denial-induced rally taking equities back up toward their 2007 highs. There, we said it. As morbid as it is, until we are able to record (or admit) a time of death, so long as we remain open to constant rule changes and creative innovation, anything can happen by the hand of the wonderful wizards of Wall Street and Washington.”

Reality vs. the Statist Induced Widespread Perception Thereof

We highly recommend taking a free subscription and providing your generous support for the Corbett Report. James Corbett is an old-fashioned fact-driven journalist who has written, recorded and edited over 1000 hours of audio and video. He produces the majority of his reporting via open source intelligence.

Initially, one is likely to perceive Mr. Corbett’s presentation style as slightly verbose, especially for those accustomed to the mainstream media’s empty sound bites. Jumping to such conclusions would be a grave mistake.

To the contrary, James Corbett is articulate, lucid, and extremely thorough. More importantly, he is unbiased, fact-driven, and passionate about exposing the underlying truth with an even-handed level of logic and rationale that is second-to-none. Go to The Corbett Report.com to learn more about James Corbett.

Back to our related topic, below the Corbett Report takes us on a 15-minute journey in a recent report on how governments and private central bankers manipulate financial markets.

Alternative vs. Mainstream Media

An hour a day at the Corbett report will more accurately inform you of what’s going on in the world than watching CNN or CNBC-type state-run media outlets 24/7.

In case you missed this mainstream brush with the truth, below is a CNBC clip where fall-guy Rick Santelli argues reality vs. artificial experimental statist induced perceptions against legions of propaganda puppets, namely quasi-economist Steve Liesman.

Clearly more of a circus when compared to the alternative Corbett Report media, the occasional 5-minute mainstream sideshows similar to the one below never seem to fail in eliciting a false sense of shock and awe to the typical indoctrinated viewer.

Most such viewers are likely to conclude that Santelli is CNBC’s stand-in clown for the notorious (Buy, Buy, Buy), Jim Cramer. We like Rick, and assume he is an honest agent drowning in a cesspool of propaganda. As for Cramer, we will refrain from comment.

Bulls Rush In – 2009

Back in 2009, shortly following the Waiting to Exhale article, we penned another in August entitled “Bulls Rush In.” In it, we discuss the missed opportunity of a century, which Mr. Santelli referred to when speaking of the necessity to allow free markets to reign in establishing values vs. the contrived experimental engineering of a dictatorial political machine in bed with private central bankers.

“The real bitch of the matter is the lost opportunity for those loyal to the basic principles of the US constitution. A missed opportunity to engender from this crises radical change of substance that might have returned the union back to the beacon of unwavering hope and disciplined leadership that it was intended to exemplify and indefinitely produce.
Instead, it appears that for now, central bankers, powerful lobby elites, and politicians have pulled another rabbit out of their mystical hats in orchestrating the coup of the century. At the precipice of total collapse, they managed to bail themselves out by fiat, and now coddle the confused peonage under their control to be patient and trusting that good fortune will too come their way - eventually.”

Thereafter, we discussed the mainstream Armageddonists, Perennial Bulls, and other such fools:

“Somewhere between exists another dimension of consciousness known as the reality zone of relevant probability. Recognizing things for what they are, and how they have come to be is the first step in coming to understand the world around us, especially when it comes to manmade schemes involving money, power, and finance.”

We closed the piece in staunch opposition to the dogma spewed persistently from the most revered mainstream authorities on Elliott Wave. We laid out a simple argument against the never-ending bearish drumbeat for an impending echo crash. We did so clearly and concisely, with one chart, and a brief dissenting case against the all too familiar dogma.

For a second time in a decade, the recent new high in the Dow today vindicates our alternative perceptions of reality as quite lucid.

There is no escaping the fact that our analysis and guidance continues to be far more accurate than the dogma espoused by big authoritarian marketing/publishing organizations.

Like Corbett, our primary focus is to sell and deliver the most accurate perception of reality and truth with no hidden agendas or gorilla marketing tactics.

Given our proven record of accomplishments, in the same way that we have encouraged you to support and benefit from the insights imparted by the alternative Corbett Report, it is our hope that we have earned your consideration to support our efforts in kind.

Confronting Our Final Deadline

2013-03-01T23:31:00.001-05:00

Though somewhat off topic, I’d like to share the following comment in response to a LinkedIn-Today feature of the same title penned by Ron Shaich, the Founder, Chairman, and Co-CEO at Panera Bread.

Comment/Response to Confronting Our Final Deadline:

Yes indeed. Life presents us with conditions, and challenges each of us to better those conditions. “Confronting Our Final Deadline” at the end of our lives, begs the proverbial question for each of us.

How should we perceive, define, and conduct the remainder of our lives?

Truth and Justice:

Truth and justice are the fractal building blocks of civilization. Without collectively established truths and the fair administration of justice, individual lives, societies and civilizations suffer and crumble. As such, as individuals and as cultural collectives, our first priority should always be the relentless and continual pursuit of truth and justice.

Classic Education:

We should all do the very best that we can to classically educate ourselves, and our children, in truth, reason, harmony, love, joy, and justice.

Tenaciously seeking and obtaining Truth and Justice in every realm of existence is paramount, for without the establishment of unequivocal truths and equal justice, there can be no lasting reason, enduring harmony, love, or joy.

Mastery of the Trivium, (grammar, logic, and rhetoric) establishes the foundation of a classic education. Students thereof obtain the requisite skills to self-access, reflect and act upon all learned truths.

Once properly educated, matured, and aware, we should then strive to live out the remainder of our lives with the highest levels of reverence, humility, humor, respect, and integrity toward ourselves and others.

If successful in mastering these principles, and without the need for public or self-examinations, each of us could better our chances at living full and rewarding lives based upon truth and justice, which provide the enduring foundation from which to experience lives of serene and peaceful abundance, filled with reason, purpose, harmony, love, and joy.

Past, Present, Future:

All that has historically transpired prior to our births profoundly affects our present lives. All that transpires after our deaths profoundly affects the lives of those we leave behind and those yet born. As such, accurately comprehending historical and present truths is essential if we wish to improve our condition and avoid repeating the mistakes of our peers and predecessors.

Still Falling Short:

Unfortunately, the historic ruling collective of human existence has not yet evolved to elevating itself to govern in the principles of absolute truth and equal justice. Shortsightedness, dominance, and the self-centeredness of immediate desires blind, and corrupt, and thereby restrict the mass of humanity from living in peaceful abundance amidst the glory of truth and justice.

Rising Up:

Though none of us asked for it, each of us has received the miraculous gift of life. The conditional gift of life and consciousness quickly becomes a most serious challenge. Each of us should have a common duty meet life’s challenges with a prudently grounded and assertive will. In our pursuits of happiness via truth and justice, each of us should be forever grateful for the opportunity endowed to us in producing lasting positive impacts for ourselves and for future generations.

If each of us faithfully embraces these principles reflexively as a culture, there would be far less regrets when reflecting upon one’s life, and therefore, much less need for pre or post mortem examinations.

The well-penned and thought provoking insights provided in Ron Shaich’s article should prompt each of us to dig a little bit deeper in understanding its undeniable relevance.

In Closing:

Though not quite as emotional or eloquently written as Ron’s, in my April 22, 2011 penning of “R.E.S.T, the King of Commodities,” I too was inspired to introduce this profound topic relative to the conducting of one’s business.

Timing the Markets

2013-02-09T17:12:00.001-05:00

Although I might well be mistaken, I strongly suspect that every person with the slightest level of self-interest and reason, who has any surplus risk capital exposed to the paper asset markets whatsoever, would be quite eager to gain access to strategies proven successful over several market cycles and time horizons.

To be clear, I am speaking of specific methods of replicable engagement that have consistently beaten the benchmarks, and outperformed their respective underlying paper instruments vs. the typical buy & hold, or trading on emotion approaches, which sadly for most, are far too common. To my knowledge, no other service provides such a transparent and ongoing accounting of performance, good, bad, or ugly.

Today, I will illuminate the benefits of such by showing several examples of these strategies, which remain actively engaged in the markets. First, from a longer-term investment perspective, we will begin by looking at the comparative results of applying two levels of strategic engagement vs. the passive buy & hold approach. Thereafter, I will cite a few others most notable.

21-Year Performance Comparison Timing the S&P 500

Although the S&P performance chart below speaks clearly for itself, I will stress ONE major distinction achieved by employing this prudent and easy to replicate strategy. First and foremost, despite all of the excitement surrounding equity markets approaching historic highs, the reality is that equities have gone NOWHERE, making NO FORWARD PROGRESS in 14-years!

To digress, I began by stating that I might be mistaken about people’s sensibilities in serving their best interests. Why you might ask? Nearly 3-years ago, back in March of 2010, I penned an article entitled, “Don’t Be Fooled Again.”
In a never-ending quest to assist people in avoiding the numerous pitfalls of trading and investing, I attempted to reach out to the common-folk, the little guys, self-directing their brokerage and retirement accounts, to provide them with a low cost tool to keep them on the right side of the market over the long-haul. As they say, you can lead a horse to water… Oh well, you know the rest…
At the time, I had created the (GRA) Guardian Revere Advisory, which focused exclusively on the S&P 500 over the long haul. Sadly, due to an insufficient level of participation, we no longer offer that low cost service. At the time, we were bullish the S&P however many remained skeptical, too bad.

Here was a typical subscriber inquiry, the precise type of individual we were seeking to assist:

Hi Joe,
“This is my story. I annuitized my nest egg back in November of '08 through Met Life, perhaps not the smartest thing to do, but I had previously lost a third of my nest egg. Within this annuity, I have the opportunity to make 12 moves a year from Nov. 6th to Nov. 6th each year--that is, six moves in, six moves out-- into their S&P fund --so I can increase the value of my account accordingly. I hope this explanation makes sense to you.
I would be happy with a 10% increase in my account each year. Met adds 6% on to each year’s increase (excluding fees which I have found are exorbitant). This year (2010) has been really terrible...I never know exactly when to put money in or out and I'm down to only a few moves left for the year! I am not a trader or a sophisticated investor by any means...I have made myself familiar with many of the indicators of the stock market but I am still learning. I was looking at your Guardian Revere 500 Timing Advisory and it seems to be the tool I've been looking for. However, I have also been looking at other indicators I have found on the internet and they are all saying different things. This is why I am a tad skeptical!
I was writing to see if I could at least acquire a coupon code as a first time subscriber to see for myself if this would be worth it. If it were, it would seem to be a reasonable way to familiarize myself with your system. Thank you for your attention to this matter.”

Two months into their subscription, the person above cancelled citing an Elliott wave video service that was overwhelmingly and rather convincingly bearish. This poor soul was scared into the wrong side of the market way too soon. Too bad, all I can say is “Don’t Get Left behind Chasing Armageddon.” The good news is that this long-term timing service is a stoic pillar within the Chart-Cast Pilot. Behold.

21-Year Performance Comparison Timing the S&P 500