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    <title>Empirical Legal Studies</title>
    
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.elsblog.org/the_empirical_legal_studi/" />
    <id>tag:typepad.com,2003:weblog-266574</id>
    <updated>2009-07-14T16:30:20-05:00</updated>
    <subtitle>www.elsblog.org - Bringing Methods to Our Madness</subtitle>
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    <link rel="self" href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/elsblog/RLOG" type="application/atom+xml" /><feedburner:browserFriendly></feedburner:browserFriendly><entry>
        <title>CELS paper submission deadline extended to August 3</title>
        <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.elsblog.org/the_empirical_legal_studi/2009/07/cels-paper-submission-deadline-extended-to-august-3.html" />
        <link rel="replies" type="text/html" href="http://www.elsblog.org/the_empirical_legal_studi/2009/07/cels-paper-submission-deadline-extended-to-august-3.html" thr:count="0" />
        <id>tag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a00d83451b58069e2011571104f57970c</id>
        <published>2009-07-14T16:30:20-05:00</published>
        <updated>2009-07-14T16:30:20-05:00</updated>
        <summary>I just received an e-mail from the Conference on Empirical Legal Studies organizers. It says, in part: The deadline for submission of papers has been extended to Monday, August 3, 2009. Information and instructions on how to submit a paper...</summary>
        <author>
            <name>CarolynShapiro</name>
        </author>
        <category scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" term="Conferences" />
        
        
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<div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><p style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; text-align: justify;"><font color="#000000" /><span size="3" style="font-family: Times New Roman, Times, serif;">I just received an e-mail from the Conference on Empirical Legal Studies organizers.  It says, in part:</span></p><p style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; text-align: justify;"><font color="#000000" /><font face="Times New Roman, Times, serif" size="3">The deadline for 
submission of papers has been extended to Monday, August 3, 2009. Information 
and instructions on how to submit a paper online are available at: <a href="/exchweb/bin/redir.asp?URL=http://rs6.net/tn.jsp?et=1102640065329%26s=10661%26e=001HPn-I5MPQNfPmiN4XrH-ntK69sigP_1hqdD8BTElR27OPK2niQWMg2_t5ArEZ9KA5molmoowqMK6MoTRe5-TCPDQ2dU8LW2BrsgMkvkoGA2SQyahNHXfj8IYnH9H4sdhV9zSYb9McMw=" target="_blank">http://law.usc.edu/cels/submissions.cfm</a><br /></font></p><p style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; text-align: justify;"><font color="#000000" /><font face="Times New Roman, Times, serif" size="3">Comprehensive 
information about the conference -- including information about registration, 
paper submission, travel, and hotels -- is available at: <a href="/exchweb/bin/redir.asp?URL=http://rs6.net/tn.jsp?et=1102640065329%26s=10661%26e=001HPn-I5MPQNfDPIWOIG0BqkcJmwTeAQz2x8c7EsWjE5j42e-YyCqb5s01diENQsYtiAODxsYZ7Kdksd8k_Wg0vM1TI8O2RM8_I-zaNg6Csmiy9GM0aGZdFg==" target="_blank">http://law.usc.edu/cels/</a></font></p></div>
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    </entry>
    <entry>
        <title>Intriguing Use of Content Analysis</title>
        <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.elsblog.org/the_empirical_legal_studi/2009/07/intriguing-use-of-content-analysis.html" />
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        <id>tag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a00d83451b58069e2011571d40f79970b</id>
        <published>2009-07-07T13:10:55-05:00</published>
        <updated>2009-07-07T13:10:55-05:00</updated>
        <summary>Political scientists Brian Calvin, Paul Collins, and Pamela Corley (at Univ. North Texas, Univ. of North Texas, and Vanderbilt, respectively) report results from their study that compares Supreme Court opinion text with text from the relevant lower court opinions. Over...</summary>
        <author>
            <name>Michael Heise</name>
        </author>
        <category scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" term="Scholarship" />
        
        
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<div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><p>Political scientists Brian Calvin, Paul Collins, and Pamela Corley (at Univ. North Texas, Univ. of North Texas, and Vanderbilt, respectively) report results from their <a href="http://www.psci.unt.edu/%7Epmcollins/MPSA%202009.pdf">study</a> that compares Supreme Court opinion text with text from the relevant lower court opinions. Over at the Conglomerate David Zaring's <a href="http://www.theconglomerate.org/2009/07/the-supreme-courts-reliance-on-the-courts-of-appeals.html">post</a> provides helpful context. The paper's excerpted abstract, below, summarizes.</p><p>"... We argue that lower court opinions will influence the content of the Court’s opinions based on a number of factors, including the prestige of the lower court opinion author, the published or unpublished nature of the lower court opinion, the ideological compatibility of the lower court opinion vis-à-vis the Supreme Court’s decision, the type of lower court opinion, and the lower court from which the opinion emanated. Utilizing plagiarism detection software to compare lower federal court opinions with the majority opinions of the Supreme Court during the 2002-2004 terms, we uncover support for our hypotheses, indicating that the Supreme Court systematically incorporates language from the lower federal courts into its majority opinions."</p></div>
</content>


    </entry>
    <entry>
        <title>Law School 4.0: Are Law Schools Relevant to the Future of Law?</title>
        <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.elsblog.org/the_empirical_legal_studi/2009/07/are-law-schools-part-of-problem-or-the-solution.html" />
        <link rel="replies" type="text/html" href="http://www.elsblog.org/the_empirical_legal_studi/2009/07/are-law-schools-part-of-problem-or-the-solution.html" thr:count="11" thr:updated="2009-07-12T18:08:56-05:00" />
        <id>tag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a00d83451b58069e201157069e0c2970c</id>
        <published>2009-07-02T11:58:06-05:00</published>
        <updated>2009-07-02T12:21:45-05:00</updated>
        <summary>Paul Lippe, a well-known Silicon Valley GC and founder of Legal OnRamp (LOR), recently posted an essay on the Am Law Daily that essentially argues that law schools, at least in their present form, are not relevant to the future...</summary>
        <author>
            <name>Bill Henderson</name>
        </author>
        <category scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" term="Henderson" />
        
        
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<div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><a href="http://www.elsblog.org/.a/6a00d83451b58069e20115706fac24970c-pi" style="float: right;"><img alt="Lippe" class="at-xid-6a00d83451b58069e20115706fac24970c " src="http://www.elsblog.org/.a/6a00d83451b58069e20115706fac24970c-150wi" style="margin: 0px 0px 5px 5px; width: 125px;" /></a> </span><span style="font-family: Georgia;">Paul Lippe, a well-known Silicon Valley GC and founder of </span><a href="http://www.legalonramp.com/" style="font-family: Georgia;">Legal OnRamp</a><span style="font-family: Georgia;"> (LOR), recently posted an essay on the </span><em style="font-family: Georgia;">Am Law Daily</em><span style="font-family: Georgia;"> that essentially argues that law schools, at least in their present form, are not relevant to the future of law.  Here is Paul's opening graph:</span></p><div class="blockquote" style="margin-left: 40px; font-family: Georgia;">If I need some insight into the future of
medicine, I might head over to Stanford Medical School. If I
wanted to learn about likely directions in finance and hedge funds, I
might visit Penn's Wharton. If I were looking to make investments in
computing, I might arrange a tour of a lab at MIT. If I decided to
learn something about where legal practice, law firms, and legal
departments will be in 2014, where would I go? Not to law school.<br /></div><p style="font-family: Georgia;">According to Paul, it is not that we are working on irrelevant stuff.  It is worse than that:  we are enjoying a comfortable living while loading our students up with debt and having a low opinion of practicing lawyers and the clients they service.  Paul recounts a recent meeting with law
school deans in which he "asked the question, 'If you decided the purpose of law
school was to maximize the comfort and income of the faculty, what
would you do differently?' The answer: 'Nothing.'"  </p><div style="font-family: Georgia;">Some people might be tempted to lump Lippe together with <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_T._Edwards">Judge Harry T. Edwards</a>, who wrote several withering critiques of legal education during the early and mid-1990s.  See, e.g.,  Harry T. Edwards, <span class="DocumentBody" id="mDocumentText_ctl00_mTextDisplay"><em>The Growing Disjunction Between Legal Education and the Legal Profession</em>, <a href="http://heinonline.org/HOL/PDF?handle=hein.journals/mlr91&amp;id=58&amp;print=section&amp;section=13&amp;collection=journals&amp;ext=.pdf">91 Mich L. Rev. 34</a> (1992); Harry T. Edwards, <em>A Postscript</em></span><span class="DocumentBody" id="mDocumentText_ctl00_mTextDisplay">, <a href="http://heinonline.org/HOL/PDF?handle=hein.journals/mlr91&amp;id=2215&amp;print=section&amp;section=90&amp;collection=journals&amp;ext=.pdf">91 Mich. L. Rev. 2191</a> (1993).  Such lumping together is a mistake.  Edwards' criticisms were largely centered on the present--that professors where disengaging with doctrine and increasingly irrelevant to judges and practicing lawyers.  <br /><br />In contrast, the gravamen of Lippe's remarks are about thought leadership and the ability to identify future solutions to macro-level problems.   Consider the following trend-lines, which are representative of the types of issues that Lippe often discusses in his <a href="http://www.legalonramp.com/">LOR</a> and <a href="http://amlawdaily.typepad.com/">Am Law Daily</a> columns:<br /></span><ul>
<li><strong>Nature and Cost of Civil litigation. </strong> With the proliferation of electronic documents, civil litigation is becoming more time-consuming and expensive.  Thus, disposition of cases is increasingly influenced by the financial wherewithal to wage prolonged campaigns in court rather than the merits of underlying disputes.  A thought leader would be proposing (a) how to re-engineer the civil justice in a way that reduces costs and improves access, or (b) how to anticipate and avoid legal disputes through systems that keep clients out of a broken civil justice system.  </li>
</ul>
<div class="blockquote" style="margin-left: 40px;">Mediation and arbitration are just the beginning, not the end.  For example, the credit card industry has eliminated virtually lawyers from consumer-vendor  disputes.  See Morriss &amp; Korosec, <a href="http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=735283">Private Dispute Resolution in the Card Context</a> (working paper, June 2005).  Some would argue that this is a good thing for business and consumers.   Further, the lawyers who innovate through designing such a system will always get a prime seat at the table. In contrast, lawyers wedded to established ways may find fewer buyers of their services.<br /></div>
<span class="DocumentBody" id="mDocumentText_ctl00_mTextDisplay" /><ul>
<li><span class="DocumentBody" id="mDocumentText_ctl00_mTextDisplay"><strong>Shifting Nature of Clients.</strong> Because of the shifting economics of the profession, an ever</span><span class="DocumentBody" id="mDocumentText_ctl00_mTextDisplay"> large proportion of law graduates earn their living as "thing" lawyers rather than "people" lawyer.   Believe it or not, in the 1930s, the dean of Yale Law School was preoccupied with the oversupply of lawyers. Why? Because the majority of Yale grads became general practitioners--i.e., people lawyers--within the local New England economy.  See Charles E. Clark &amp; Emma Corstvet, <a href="http://heinonline.org/HOL/Page?collection=journals&amp;handle=hein.journals/ylr47&amp;id=1298">The Lawyer and the Public: An AALS Survey</a>, 47 Yale L. J. 1272 (1938).  </span><span class="DocumentBody" id="mDocumentText_ctl00_mTextDisplay">That world no longer exists.  The</span><span class="DocumentBody" id="mDocumentText_ctl00_mTextDisplay"> overwhelming majority of law school graduates </span><span class="DocumentBody" id="mDocumentText_ctl00_mTextDisplay">will serve as "thing" lawyers, either for government, private industry, or a public interest cause.  Yet, hearkening back to the time of Dean Clark, our entire regulatory framework is premised on the idea of a client who is a single, natural person.  <br /></span></li>
</ul>
<div class="blockquote" style="margin-left: 40px;"><span class="DocumentBody" id="mDocumentText_ctl00_mTextDisplay">We lawyers claim to be responsive to economic and social forces and readily profess our commitment to the public interest.  See <a href="http://www.abanet.org/cpr/mrpc/preamble.html">Preamble, MPRC</a> para. 6 ("</span>As a public citizen, a lawyer should
 seek improvement of the law, access to the legal system, the administration of justice and
 the quality of service rendered by the legal profession. ... A lawyer
 should aid the legal profession in pursuing these objectives and should help the bar
 regulate itself in the public interest.").  Yet, for nearly a century, the pace of regulatory reform for lawyers has been either glacial or non-existent.  And all-too-often, the changes that have occurred are driven by "parochial or self-interested" motives. Id at para. 12. <br /></div>
<div class="blockquote" style="margin-left: 40px;"><br />Under Lippe's thought-leader ideal, members of the legal academy would be re-conceptualizing the assumptions underneath lawyer regulation and proposing an institutionally coherent strategy for altering the
regulatory landscape in a way that simultaneously helps ordinary citizens,
business, and the democratic process.  In theory, we've got the time, resources, and brain power.  Where is the leadership?<br /></div>
<span class="DocumentBody" id="mDocumentText_ctl00_mTextDisplay" /><ul>
<li><span class="DocumentBody" id="mDocumentText_ctl00_mTextDisplay"><strong>Cost and Quality of Legal Education.</strong>  Over the last 30 years, the cost of a legal education has increased approximately three times faster than the average household incomes.  Yet, it is difficult to identify a corresponding innovation within legal education that justifies the higher cost.  A thought leader conceives of ways to reduce the cost of legal education or equip graduates with a larger skill set that is likely to provide a substantial return on investment.  Here, I am not talking MacCrate-type skills, as important as they might be.  Rather, I am thinking legal-process engineering and the ability to standardize and commoditize legal products in a way that increases predictability and drives down cost.   </span><span class="DocumentBody" id="mDocumentText_ctl00_mTextDisplay">See, e.g., <a href="http://www.susskind.com/">Richard Susskind's collected works.</a>  <br /></span></li>
</ul>
<div class="blockquote" style="margin-left: 40px;"><span class="DocumentBody" id="mDocumentText_ctl00_mTextDisplay">If lawyers solve problems, perhaps traditional legal disputes and transactions are a mere subset of  the services we might provide.</span>  What skills are especially relevant to the 21st century global economy.  Once again, because of our time, resources, and brain power, Lippe is surprised we are not leading the conversation.  Maybe he has a point.<br /><span class="DocumentBody" id="mDocumentText_ctl00_mTextDisplay" /></div><br />
<span class="DocumentBody" id="mDocumentText_ctl00_mTextDisplay">It is tempting to write Lippe off as an arrogant Silicon Valley GC.  But before we do, it is worth noting that Fred Krebs, president of the Association of Corporate Counsel (<a href="http://www2.acc.com/">ACC</a>), wrote in <a href="http://amlawdaily.typepad.com/amlawdaily/2009/06/school.html#comment-6a00e55044cbaf8834011570522b98970c">a comment</a> to Lippe's essay that Paul was "</span>Right on point. Should be required reading for law school faculty."   We can be dismissive of Krebs as well, but the legal spend of his constituents (in-house legal departments) is the very thing that supports the high cost structure of <span class="DocumentBody" id="mDocumentText_ctl00_mTextDisplay">legal education.  If legal educators are uninterested in problems of people who buy the majority of legal services, we should not be surprised when in-house lawyers work very hard to reduce their reliance on U.S.-trained lawyers.   Entrepreneurs in Europe, India, and Latin America are salivating at the prospect of easier access to the U.S. corporate legal market. There is just no way that a state disciplinary commission is going to use the unauthorized-practice-of-law hammer to challenge how GE or DuPont allocates its legal spend--there is zero consumer protection basis for stopping the mass migration of this type of legal work.  <br /><br />Frankly, amidst the meltdown of the entry-level lawyer job market, I am surprised by the lack of significant interest or attention by legal academics, at least as judged by blogosphere traffic.  It is all-too-easy to assume that the market will rebound next year, or 2011 at the latest.  To this I might ask, "What is the basis for the optimism?"   The salad days of 2004 to 2008 were driven by a Wall Street juggernaut that destroyed the U.S. investment banking industry, which was the historical client basis for the industry's most prestigious law firms.  And here is a more pointed follow-up question, "How much does the legal economy need to recover so that our students can to support their debt load?"  See, e.g., Jonathan Glater, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/02/business/02lawyer.html?_r=1&amp;scp=1&amp;sq=student%20debt&amp;st=cse">Finding Debt a Bigger Hurdle than the Bar Exam</a>, NY Times, July 1, 2009.  Obviously, the answer to this question requires some careful study and some math.  Vague appeals to the business cycle just won't cut it.<br /><br />It is one thing to acknowledge that we lack good answers--that part is forgivable.   But it is quite another to ignore or minimize the problem because, quite frankly, it really does not affect us personally.  All of this reminds me of my youth in Cleveland, Ohio during the 1970s and 80s.  Lots of my friends' parents worked for General Motors, which offered high pay, amazing benefits, predictable hours, and long vacations.  No one else seemed to have it so good.   I remember thinking at the time that GM was both complacent and invincible.  It turned out that I was only half right.   So I worry about my own industry.  Do I have the mindset of a GM employee circa 1979?  God, I hope not.  <br /><br />Recently, the editors of <a href="http://abovethelaw.com/2009/06/screening_biglaw_apprentice_at.php">Above-the Law</a> surveyed the changes within the legal job market and asked two good questions:  (1) if the <a href="http://amlawdaily.typepad.com/amlawdaily/2009/06/howreys-new-model.html">Howrey</a>/<a href="http://amlawdaily.typepad.com/amlawdaily/2009/05/drinker-biddle-sends-associates-back-to-school.html">Drinker Biddle</a>/<a href="http://www.abajournal.com/news/frost_brown_todd_launches_apprentice_program/">Frost Brown Todd</a> apprenticeship model gains traction, is it appropriate to shorten law school to two years? And (2) if law school salaries are going down, should law schools be expected to "share in the pain" by figuring out ways to reduce tuition?  Unless the job market significantly improves during the next 12 months, it is going to get much more difficult for us to ignore these issues. For a realistic cost analysis of the current system, see Edward Rubin, <a href="http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1161273">Should Law Schools Support Faculty Research</a>, 17 J. Comtemp. Leg. Issues 139 (2008).<br /><br /></span><span class="DocumentBody" id="mDocumentText_ctl00_mTextDisplay">I
don't want this post to be a screed.  I am looking for next steps that will produce concrete and sustainable forward progress.  But I have read enough history on the growth and evolution of U.S. legal education to have a realistic view on institutional change.  Here are my two primary rules:<br /><br /><strong>Rule #1:</strong>  Great ideas are not enough.  As a result, bold initiatives by professional organizations like the AALS or the ABA rarely have staying power.   Law professors are intellectuals; hence, we fall in love with our own ideas.  But all-to0-often, we fail to do a coherent institutional analysis that explains why others will adopt our ideas.   Skipping this step is one of the privileges (and hazards) of the ivory tower.  For a more elaborate discussion of this point, see <a href="http://www.elsblog.org/the_empirical_legal_studi/2007/12/why-i-worry-abo.html">Why I Worry About the Carnegie Report: Four Data Points</a> (Dec. 7, 2007).<br /><br /><strong>Rule #2:</strong>  Sustainable ideas within any industry are always accompanied by institutional self-interest--legal education is no exception.  In other words, the people who execute on the idea have to be made better off, e.g., through financial gains, professional reputation, leisure, economic security, or (at the individual level) self-actualization.   This was secret sauce behind the Langdell case model:  It was more effective than self-study yet it facilitated large enough class sizes to generate a perennial economic surplus.  In turn, lawyers-turned-law-professors were freed from the commercial pressures of practice and could advance their careers as experts.  The university, professors, and students were all made better off.  As a second order effect, so was the legal profession.   Of course, this revolution occurred 100 years ago.  It is time for a new legal education formula that fits the 21st century.<br /><br />Lippe understands this calculus.  Indeed, he </span><span class="DocumentBody" id="mDocumentText_ctl00_mTextDisplay">ends his essay with a "glass is half-full" perspective that is bound to be overlooked:  <br /></span><div class="blockquote" style="margin-left: 40px;"><br />While law
schools need to figure out how to get graduates out the door faster and
for less money, they also are the logical source ... of skills
(as well as reputation and network) development for lawyers to become
fully functional, especially as firms' appetite for subsidizing
training will decline. Medical schools and business schools make a ton
of money at continuing/executive education, so this is a great
opportunity to enrich the faculty and student experience, generate an
income stream, and engender more alumni loyalty. <span class="DocumentBody" id="mDocumentText_ctl00_mTextDisplay"><br /><br /></span></div><span class="DocumentBody" id="mDocumentText_ctl00_mTextDisplay">In other words, innovation starts at home with a law school business model that pays the freight by delivering financial and reputational benefits to stakeholders.  And if our metric is 20 slots in <em>US News</em>, we are setting the bar too low.  This type of innovation creates an entirely new system of merit.   To my mind, Lippe's Law School 4.0 is a worthwhile and achievable goal.</span>  <span class="DocumentBody" id="mDocumentText_ctl00_mTextDisplay">The only downside is that we have to fully engage in the problems of the modern legal profession and be willing to fall flat on our faces.  Sounds interesting.  Sign me up.<br /></span><div class="blockquote" style="margin-left: 40px;"><span class="DocumentBody" id="mDocumentText_ctl00_mTextDisplay" /></div></div></div>
</content>


    </entry>
    <entry>
        <title>Updated Judicial Common Space Scores</title>
        <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.elsblog.org/the_empirical_legal_studi/2009/07/updated-judicial-common-space-scores.html" />
        <link rel="replies" type="text/html" href="http://www.elsblog.org/the_empirical_legal_studi/2009/07/updated-judicial-common-space-scores.html" thr:count="0" />
        <id>tag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a00d83451b58069e2011570ace827970c</id>
        <published>2009-07-02T10:13:13-05:00</published>
        <updated>2009-07-02T10:13:13-05:00</updated>
        <summary>here. Courtesy of Profs. Lee Epstein, Andrew Martin, Jeff Segal, and Chad Westerland. JCS attempt to provide preference estimates for Supreme Court justices that are directly comparable to preference measures of Courts of Appeals judges, members of Congress, and the...</summary>
        <author>
            <name>Michael Heise</name>
        </author>
        <category scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" term="Data" />
        
        
<content type="xhtml" xml:lang="en-US" xml:base="http://www.elsblog.org/the_empirical_legal_studi/">
<div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><p style="font-size: 13px; font-family: Georgia;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 13px; font-family: Georgia;"><a href="http://epstein.law.northwestern.edu/research/JCS.html">here</a>. Courtesy of Profs. Lee Epstein, Andrew Martin, Jeff Segal, and Chad Westerland. JCS attempt to provide preference estimates for Supreme Court justices that are directly comparable to preference measures of Courts of Appeals judges, members of Congress, and the President. Our data extend through 2008 and correspond with the most recent version of Keith Poole's Common Space scores.</span></span></p></div>
</content>


    </entry>
    <entry>
        <title>The End of an Era: the Bi-Modal Distribution for the Class of 2008</title>
        <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.elsblog.org/the_empirical_legal_studi/2009/06/the-end-of-an-era-the-bimodal-distribution-for-the-class-of-2008.html" />
        <link rel="replies" type="text/html" href="http://www.elsblog.org/the_empirical_legal_studi/2009/06/the-end-of-an-era-the-bimodal-distribution-for-the-class-of-2008.html" thr:count="8" thr:updated="2009-07-08T00:47:16-05:00" />
        <id>tag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a00d83451b58069e2011570913955970c</id>
        <published>2009-06-29T08:30:12-05:00</published>
        <updated>2009-06-30T16:10:02-05:00</updated>
        <summary>NALP has just posted its entry-level starting salary for class of 2008--i.e., the lawyers who started their jobs just as Bear Sterns and Lehman Bros unraveled and the credit markets completely froze up. Of the 22,305 law school graduates in...</summary>
        <author>
            <name>Bill Henderson</name>
        </author>
        <category scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" term="Current Affairs" />
        
        
<content type="xhtml" xml:lang="en-US" xml:base="http://www.elsblog.org/the_empirical_legal_studi/">
<div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><p>NALP has <a href="http://www.nalp.org/08saldistribution">just posted</a> its entry-level starting salary for class of 2008--i.e., the lawyers who started their jobs just as Bear Sterns and Lehman Bros unraveled and the credit markets completely froze up.  <br /><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><a href="http://www.elsblog.org/.a/6a00d83451b58069e2011570914111970c-pi" style="display: inline;"><img alt="Slide1" class="at-xid-6a00d83451b58069e2011570914111970c " src="http://www.elsblog.org/.a/6a00d83451b58069e2011570914111970c-450wi" style="width: 450px;" /></a> </span> <br />Of the 22,305 law school graduates in NALP's sample (over half of all 2008 graduates), a remarkable 23% (5,130  '08 grads) reported an entry-level salary of $160,000.  In contrast, 42% of entry level lawyers reported salaries in the $40,000 to $65,000 range.  Once again, the central tendencies are a poor guide to the distribution as a whole: whereas the mean salary is a $92,000, the median salary was $72,000.   Further, the two modes ($50,000 and $160,000) are separated by $110,000.</p><p>Amidst all the layoffs, deferrals, salary cuts, and apprenticeship programs announced in 2009, it is safe to venture that the bi-modal era has peaked.  Every law school class for the foreseeable future will graduate to a much different economic landscape.  Although many students will regret the opportunity to earn such a big payday upon graduation, it brought with it intense billing pressure, client resentment, heavy leverage, and very little substantive training for new hires.  I would argue that profession as a whole (including current and future graduating classes) is better off with a lower entry level salary.  </p><p>Admittedly that is a long-term view for the profession as a whole.  In the short term, current students and recent graduates are in a world of hurt.  Specifically, law school debt loads continue to climb.  Thus, law schools are (rightfully) going to be under increased pressure to deliver value to our students.  I don't think most law professors and law school administrators fully appreciate the difficult times ahead.  For a provocative take on the current state of legal education, see Paul Lippe, <a href="http://amlawdaily.typepad.com/amlawdaily/2009/06/school.html">Welcome to the Future: Time for Law School 4.0</a>.</p><p>For some perspective on how this crazy market evolved, see:</p><ul>
<li>Henderson, <a href="http://www.elsblog.org/the_empirical_legal_studi/2007/09/distribution-of.html">Distribution of Starting Salaries for 2006: Best Graphic of the Year</a> (Sept. 4, 2007)</li>
<li>Henderson, <a href="http://www.elsblog.org/the_empirical_legal_studi/2008/07/how-the-cravath.html">How the Cravath System Created the Bi-Modal Distribution</a> (July 18, 2008)</li>
<li>Henderson, <a href="http://lawprofessors.typepad.com/legal_profession/2008/07/class-of-2007-a.html">Class of 2007:  A More Extreme Bi-Modal Distribution</a> (July 30, 2008)</li>
<li>NALP, <a href="http://www.nalp.org/apictureworth1000words">A Picture is Worth 1,000 Words</a> (Sept. 2007).</li>
</ul>
<p>After the jump are the distributions from 1991, 2006, and 2007.  The primary takeaway is that the bi-modal did not exist in the early 1990s.  It first emerged in 2000 (with the dot.com salary wars) and became progressively more extreme starting as the decade unfolded.  On Wednesday, I have an article coming out in the NALP Bulletin, entitled "The Bursting of the Pedigree Bubble," which will provide some additional analysis.</p>
<p> <img alt="Slide2" class="at-xid-6a00d83451b58069e2011570913b4f970c " src="http://www.elsblog.org/.a/6a00d83451b58069e2011570913b4f970c-450wi" style="width: 450px;" /></p><p><a href="http://www.elsblog.org/.a/6a00d83451b58069e2011570917b54970c-pi" style="display: inline;"><img alt="Slide3" class="at-xid-6a00d83451b58069e2011570917b54970c " src="http://www.elsblog.org/.a/6a00d83451b58069e2011570917b54970c-450wi" style="width: 450px;" /></a> </p><p> <a href="http://www.elsblog.org/.a/6a00d83451b58069e2011570913cea970c-pi" style="display: inline;"><img alt="Slide4" class="at-xid-6a00d83451b58069e2011570913cea970c " src="http://www.elsblog.org/.a/6a00d83451b58069e2011570913cea970c-450wi" style="width: 450px;" /></a></p><p><a href="http://www.elsblog.org/.a/6a00d83451b58069e201157186babf970b-pi" style="display: inline;"><img alt="Slide5" class="at-xid-6a00d83451b58069e201157186babf970b " src="http://www.elsblog.org/.a/6a00d83451b58069e201157186babf970b-450wi" style="width: 450px;" /></a> <br /> </p></div>
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    </entry>
    <entry>
        <title>Dependent Data</title>
        <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.elsblog.org/the_empirical_legal_studi/2009/06/dependent-data.html" />
        <link rel="replies" type="text/html" href="http://www.elsblog.org/the_empirical_legal_studi/2009/06/dependent-data.html" thr:count="0" />
        <id>tag:typepad.com,2003:post-68405377</id>
        <published>2009-06-23T09:40:59-05:00</published>
        <updated>2009-06-23T09:40:59-05:00</updated>
        <summary>A nice--albeit somewhat technical--paper (here) underscores an all-too common challenge in empirical legal studies: The perils of serial correlation and the threat it poses to independence assumptions in models. An excerpted abstract follows. "In a recent securities law case, the...</summary>
        <author>
            <name>Michael Heise</name>
        </author>
        <category scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" term="Methodology" />
        
        
<content type="xhtml" xml:lang="en-US" xml:base="http://www.elsblog.org/the_empirical_legal_studi/">
<div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><p>A nice--albeit somewhat technical--paper (<a href="http://lpr.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/reprint/8/1/25">here</a>) underscores an all-too common challenge in empirical legal studies: The perils of serial correlation and the threat it poses to independence assumptions in models.  An excerpted abstract follows.</p><p><span style="font-size: 13px; font-family: Georgia;">"In a recent securities law case, the statistical methods used by the regulator in analysing data on daily commissions and hypothetical profits from initial public offerings (IPOs) assumed that the data on consecutive days were independent. Consecutive observations in most business and economic data, however, are positively correlated. While statistical articles demonstrate that this type of dependence affects the distribution of virtually all statistics, including non-parametric and goodness-of-fit tests, the magnitude of the effect may not be fully appreciated. For example, in one comparison of commissions one broker received on days with an IPO to the days when no IPO was issued yielded a statistically significant p-value of 0.02, under the independence assumption. Accounting for serial correlation, the test actually had a non-significant p-value close to 0.09. Other examples of the effect of dependence include jury discrimination cases in locales where grand jurors can serve two consecutive terms as well as cases concerned with environmental pollution where measurements are spatially and temporally correlated. This paper describes the noticeable effect violations of the independence assumption can have on statistical inferences."</span></p></div>
</content>


    </entry>
    <entry>
        <title>ECJ Database</title>
        <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.elsblog.org/the_empirical_legal_studi/2009/06/ecj-database.html" />
        <link rel="replies" type="text/html" href="http://www.elsblog.org/the_empirical_legal_studi/2009/06/ecj-database.html" thr:count="0" />
        <id>tag:typepad.com,2003:post-68301213</id>
        <published>2009-06-19T20:57:54-05:00</published>
        <updated>2009-06-19T20:57:54-05:00</updated>
        <summary>Alec Stone Sweet and Thomas Brunell have posted three data bases, on the activities of the European Court of Justice, and the adjudication of EU law, under Articles 226 (infringement proceedings - brought by the Commission against a Member State),...</summary>
        <author>
            <name>Jason Czarnezki</name>
        </author>
        
        
<content type="xhtml" xml:lang="en-US" xml:base="http://www.elsblog.org/the_empirical_legal_studi/">
<div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><p><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: &quot;Calibri&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;;">Alec Stone Sweet and Thomas Brunell have posted
three data bases, on the activities of the European Court of Justice, and the
adjudication of EU law, under Articles 226 (infringement proceedings - brought
by the Commission against a Member State), 230 (annulment actions in
administrative law brought by individuals and companies against the EU), and
234 (preliminary references from national judges to the ECJ).<span>  </span>They collected these data over the course of
12 years, and they are unavailable outside of the Court, which does not provide
public access to them. The home for these data is the Robert Schuman Centre, the
European University Institute. The datesets, accompanying codebooks, and papers
providing summary analyses of the data can be found here: <a href="http://www.eu-newgov.org/datalists/deliverables_detail.asp?Project_ID=26">http://www.eu-newgov.org/datalists/deliverables_detail.asp?Project_ID=26</a>.
Since 1996, scholars have used these data in a wide variety of research
projects, including doctoral dissertations, books, articles in economics, law,
sociology, and political science.</span></p></div>
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