Projections Blog

We Have Moved

noreply@blogger.com (Brett) — Thu, 29 Jul 2010 18:33:00 +0000

The Projections Blog can now be found at http://projectionsinc.com/blog. Please update your bookmarks and any links as we make the transition.

An EFCA Revival?

noreply@blogger.com (Brett) — Fri, 09 Jul 2010 13:57:00 +0000

There are a couple interesting stories from the past week where supporters of the Employee Free Choice Act make it known that the legislation will not go down without a fight.

In commemorating the 75th anniversary of the passage of the National Labor Relations Act, Labor Secretary Hilda Solis used the moment to essentially reinforce the administration’s belief that unions strengthen the economy, while once again committing their support for the Employee Free Choice Act.

Here is what she said about EFCA:

In order to rebuild the middle class today, we need to level the playing field for all working people and update our labor laws to fit the 21st century workplace. That's why the President and I support the Employee Free Choice Act - which would update the NLRA so workers can form unions if they choose to without fear or pressure.

I suppose she figures her audience at the Huffington Post knows what EFCA is but she declines to say what it does or how it does it. She made the argument about “leveling the playing field” many times in the column, but never mentioned anything about secret ballots, card check, etc. which has been the strategy of supporters for some time.

And in a Wall Street Journal article from earlier this morning they talked about the possibility that Democrats will try to pass major, often controversial legislation, during the lame duck session of Congress. One of those bills that continues to get brought up is EFCA. Sen. Tom Harkin (D-IA) is in favor of that, and in the House one Democrat spoke frankly about the possibility. When it comes to EFCA, “the lame duck would be the last chance, quite honestly, for the foreseeable future,” noted Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-AZ).

Looking At The New Union Election Statistics

noreply@blogger.com (Brett) — Thu, 08 Jul 2010 15:04:00 +0000

About a week ago, the Bureau of Labor Statics released the latest numbers on union elections, along with a 13 year trend. Here are the numbers for 2009: there were 1,304 elections for union representation held with the union winning 864 of them. That represents a 66.3 percent win total, the highest winning percentage since World War II probably- and slightly higher than last years 64.7 percent.

It appears that that is the new labor strategy. Don’t bother holding the election unless it looks pretty evident the union will win. Looking back over the past 13 years, the union winning percentage has increased steadily from 50.8 percent in 1997 to where it is today. While that may make for good PR, it has not done much to increase union numbers.

In 1997, there were a total of 3,261 elections held- the union won about half- with a little more than 90,000 employees joining the union (out of about 224,000 who cast ballots). In the past year, just 44,033 new employees were involved in petitions won by the union- down about 50 percent from 13 years ago. At the same time, only 69,832 employees were even eligible to vote- down a remarkable 70 percent from 1997.

Harkin Says That EFCA Could Come To Life During Lame-Duck Session of Congress

noreply@blogger.com (Brett) — Fri, 25 Jun 2010 13:18:00 +0000

Sen. Tom Harkin (D-IA), probably the biggest proponent of the Employee Free Choice Act in the Senate, remains optimistic that the labor organizing bill can still pass during this session of Congress.

On Thursday, Harkin appeared on the Bill Press radio show and hinted at what strategies they may follow to pass the bill before a new, most likely less union-friendly Congress is sworn in in January. Harkin said they may try to pass “key parts” of the bill individually if they can’t move it in its entirety. He also stated that they may try to pass the bill during the lame-duck session. That refers to the period of Congress after the November elections, but before the new session begins in January. To pass anything that controversial would be quite a task as it rarely happens.

But when you think about it, there are some fence-sitters or those who outright oppose it right now that look unlikely to win re-election in November (or have already lost their primary) and obviously would not have to answer to any constituents. Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA), who once opposed the bill but now favors a compromise version, has already lost his primary and could potentially move to support every part of the bill. Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) barley survived a challenge in her primary (her challenger was mainly funded by unions), but has little chance of winning re-election in November. She initially supported EFCA, but backed off over the past year as she geared up for re-election. Would they be inclined to support this in November or December?

Harkin’s final message was simply: “To those who think it's dead, I say think again.”

E-voting In Replace of EFCA?

noreply@blogger.com (Brett) — Mon, 21 Jun 2010 14:53:00 +0000

The Hill recently had a story on an issue that the National Labor Relations Board is looking into which has business groups calling it the new Employee Free Choice Act. The issue at hand is electronic union balloting, and the NLRB recently released a “request for information” to see how federal contractors would administer such a system.

Business groups such as the Chamber of Commerce, Coalition for a Democratic Workplace and Workforce Fairness Institute, which took the lead in drumming up opposition to EFCA, have now zeroed in on this move. Glenn Spencer, executive director of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s Workforce Freedom Initiative, said the NLRB is looking for ways to implement EFCA single handily, adding, “They will look for ways around the private ballot, taking the worker out of the privacy of the ballot booth. This is just the first step.”

The Coalition for a Democratic Workplace sent a letter to the board, which said (in part): “Among other adverse impacts, using electronic means to permit off-site, or remote, voting during union organizing elections will subject employees to a level of intimidation and coercion that does not occur during an on-site, private ballot election that is directly supervised by the NLRB. Electronic voting bears a striking resemblance to the card-check scheme.”

Trumka: We won’t quit until EFCA becomes the law of the land

noreply@blogger.com (Brett) — Tue, 15 Jun 2010 14:39:00 +0000

Despite multiple reports of EFCA’s death by both Republicans and Democrats, AFL-CIO president Richard Trumka continues to put on a positive face. At the recent UAW convention in Detroit, Trumka stated that his group and others “won’t quit until the EFCA becomes the law of the land.” He also pressed the UAW members to intensify lobbying efforts with their member of Congress in support of Employee Free Choice Act, labor’s top legislative priority which once looked like a shoe-in for passage before stalling in Congress.

Trumka also took the opportunity to praise “the leadership of President Obama,” and called the administration one in which “understand that we cannot have a middle class in this country without a strong domestic automobile industry and without strong union contracts.” This is about a week after labor and White House officials- usually strong allies- traded shots following the Arkansas Democratic primary. The White House was backing incumbent Sen. Blanche Lincoln, while most unions were backing her primary challenger Bill Halter. Upset with Lincoln’s opposition to EFCA, unions spent in the neighborhood of $10 million in a losing effort. Following the election, a White House official declared the unions had just “flushed $10 million down the toilet,’ while a union official stated they are not “an arm of the Democratic Party.” Since that time, the two sides have somewhat made-up and there was no evidence of hard feelings toward the administration in Trumka’s speech.

Also, at the convention, UAW president Ron Gettelfinger gave his last address to the group he led for eight years. The New York Times has an interesting write-up on some dissenters within the UAW ranks who feel that union has gone too far in concessions. One of those dissenters is Gary Walkowicz, a Dearborn, Michigan plant worker, who led a drive against last summer’s concessions and is running for president. It will be interesting to see who ends up with Gettelfinger’s old job.

Unions To Spend Well Over $100M For Midterms

noreply@blogger.com (Brett) — Tue, 25 May 2010 15:44:00 +0000

Two major unions, SEIU and AFSCME, plan to spend around $100 million between themselves on the upcoming November elections where every seat in the House and a third of the Senate is at stake. In March, the AFL-CIO said they are looking to exceed the $53 million they spent on the 2008 election.

But this time around the strategy is a bit different. While unions were critical in building and expanding the Democratic majorities in 2006 and 2008, there plan this year is to save that majority. Incumbent protection is the name of the game as offense has switched to defense.

Gerry McEntee, president of the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (or AFSCME) said the union plans on spending “in excess” of $50 million as they have eight Senate seats and 34 House seats in their top tier program. “We have got to protect the incumbency in the House. We have got to protect the incumbency in the Senate… We are not out there looking for new seats. We have our hands full the way it is,” McEntee said.

Another major player, SEIU, is looking to spend about $44 million which they began spending last year thanking legislators for supporting healthcare reform. They currently have a list of 15 top-priority House districts that they are hoping to keep in the Democratic column. “In the past, we have not paid as much attention to incumbent protection as we have this year,” said Jon Youngdahl, national political director for the union.

The AFL-CIO, who are yet to give specifics on spending plans, said they plan to be active in Senatorial and gubernatorial campaigns in 18 states along with 60 to 70 House races throughout the country.

While labor’s top priority- the Employee Free Choice Act- has yet to come to fruition (and most likely won’t before November), it appears the biggest issue when it comes to supporting and defending an incumbent is the members vote on healthcare. In fact, many unions are opposing or not supporting Democrats who had co-sponsored or supported EFCA in the past if they opposed the healthcare legislation.

Harkin: Votes Aren’t There On EFCA

noreply@blogger.com (Brett) — Wed, 19 May 2010 20:16:00 +0000

Sen. Tom Harkin (D-IA) has been a key player and proponent of the Employee Free Choice Act in the Senate. He currently chairs the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions committee where he hoped to steer the legislation to passage. That obviously has not to come to fruition, and he recently admitted the votes were not there to pass the bill. While many have known this to be true for some time, few Democratic or labor leaders have admitted such. The key question is: what do supporters do to work around the lack of vote for passage of EFCA?

Trumka: We Will Attach EFCA To Something

noreply@blogger.com (Brett) — Thu, 06 May 2010 17:25:00 +0000

The Employee Free Choice Act has taken on many different lives over the past year. We saw the original bill become a compromise of sorts after several Democrats expressed concern with card check. Still, there is no “official” compromise bill but Democrats insist they are regularly having negotiations and discussions concerning the bill.

And just how they are going to pass EFCA has left a number of questions. When the thought of getting 60 votes in the Senate appeared out of reach, attention soon turned to the National Labor Relations Board. With a 3-1 pro-labor majority, some labor leaders are pushing to have the board institute provisions of EFCA. Right now, that appears to labor’s best shot at getting approval of their top-priority. After the 2010 elections, Congress will most likely be less union friendly, but the NLRB will remain.

But here is another twist for instituting EFCA. AFL-CIO President Richard Trumpka, knowing it can’t pass on its own, is calling on Congress to attach EFCA to some other (most likely more popular) piece of legislation. “Anything we can get it attached to. There are multitudes of things we can get it attached to, and we will. We will get it done and it will be a good thing for the country.”

Trumka, who has publicly remained confident that the bill will pass, said there will be a vote on the bill this year- and it will pass.

Mary Kay Henry will be next president of SEIU- not Anna Burger

noreply@blogger.com (Brett) — Sat, 24 Apr 2010 00:36:00 +0000

According to Ben smith at Politico, thanks to a handful of undecided SEIU locals swinging to Mary Kay Henry, the California nurses leader will be the power union's next president. Outgoing president Andy Stern was backing Secretary-Treasurer Anna Burger, and she was seen as his heir apparent. Burger was very much involved with the Washington political scene (like Stern), while Henry has focused on a need to focus on organizing (over politics). It will be interesting to see what direction SEIU now follows and if the close relationship with Obama and Congressional Democrats changes.

Projections, Inc. announces new Partnership with Labor Research Partners

noreply@blogger.com (Brett) — Tue, 20 Apr 2010 17:13:00 +0000

Projections, Inc. today announced that the company has forged a new partnership with reporting firm Labor Research Partners, in an effort to help bring more timely and effective NLRB Petition reporting to the marketplace.

“To date, the petition reports available to labor attorneys, consultants and even companies have been lacking. The data is often days old and omits vital information that could mean the difference between unionization and continuing to operate union-free,” said Projections’ CEO Walter Orechwa.

Labor Research Partners offers next-day reporting of RC, RD, RM Petitions as well as Unfair Labor Practice charges. These reports include details such as employer information, case numbers, and the union and local involved, when those are available. “Because of the speed with which we collect our data, Union and Local information is sometimes not available from the NLRB,” commented Labor Research Partners’ Drew Kronick. “But our subscribers know that timeliness is the most important element when it comes to reacting effectively.”

In addition to the speed at which their reports are made available, the integrity of Labor Research Partners’ data far surpasses that of competitors, and at a fraction of the cost of competing reports. Additionally, Labor Research Partners’ method of presenting “cumulative-for-the-month” reports makes it easy for subscribers to build an archive of NLRB filings.

Kronick said he felt the partnership with Projections would do the business community a great deal of good, “With the strength of Projections’ connections, and the service and superior product LRP offers, this partnership is clearly a win for everyone.”

To receive a complimentary two-week trial of Labor Research Partners’ reports, attorneys, consultants and corporate representatives can visit the sign up page.

Three Questions For Life After Stern

noreply@blogger.com (Brett) — Wed, 14 Apr 2010 15:07:00 +0000

Andy Stern’s announcement that he will be stepping down as head of the Service Employees International Union certainly came as a shock as Stern was undoubtedly in the best position of his life, at least politically. Stern was the most frequent visitor to a White House that has the most pro-labor administration since the 1960s. So while I am not going to speculate on what caused Stern to resign, here are a couple other questions that we will see play out in the near future:

Who will be the new president of SEIU?

In the piece yesterday we mentioned a few names including SEIU Secretary-Treasurer Anna Burger. She is viewed as Stern’s heir-apparent and is the most obvious choice to replace him. Burger is/ was a close ally to Stern and in addition to her role with SEIU, she also served as the first chair of Change to Win when they broke off from the AFL-CIO. She is also a close ally to President Obama having served on the President’s Economic Recovery Advisory Board. You have to imagine this would be a smooth transition.

Will Trumka be the new “punching bag?”

I saw this question posed at Politico yesterday. Andy Stern has certainly been a punching bag of sorts for opponents of the labor movement and their agenda. The AFL-CIO has a relatively new president, Richard Trumka, and he seems ready, willing, and able to be the mouthpiece of organized labor. Look for Trumka, who does not have a high-profile yet, to emerge as the new face of the movement making him a prime target.

Will Change to Win unite with AFL-CIO?

With Trumka replacing John Sweeney at the AFL-CIO and a new president on the horizon at SEIU, you can say there has been a changing of the guard and the cards look to be in place for the two sides to have a reunification. Change to Win, Stern’s break off coalition, has been getting smaller and never really challenged the supremacy of AFL-CIO. There are lots of talks about reunification being floated; the near future seems like the best time if that was going to happen.

Breaking: Andy Stern To Resign

noreply@blogger.com (Brett) — Tue, 13 Apr 2010 13:01:00 +0000

Service Employees International Union President Andy Stern is set to resign his post as leader of one of the nation’s largest and most powerful labor unions, according to SEIU officials. Ben Smith with Politico was the first to break this story last night.

Stern’s term as president is up at the end of 2012 although an exact date of departure is not known yet. The SEIU Executive Committee is gathering in Washington this week, and their official press release states that they will “address these rumors” at the end of the week.

Names of the most common replacements include Change to Win executive director Anna Burger, along with Mary Kay Henry and Gerald Hudson, both high ranking union officials.

Lindsey Graham: EFCA Will Come Back Again

noreply@blogger.com (Brett) — Thu, 01 Apr 2010 17:17:00 +0000

Speaking to business leaders at the Clemson (S.C.) Area Chamber of Commerce yesterday, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) touched on a number of the Obama Administration’s initiatives, including the Employee Free Choice Act.

Graham said, “We had Card Check pretty much tamped down,” but he warned, “It is going to come back up again.”

Looking at the political spectrum, it appears the White House feels they have momentum following the healthcare reform victory a couple weeks ago, and are going to push forward with much of the president’s stalled agenda.

The most recent move was instilling two new members to the National Labor Relations Board via recess appointments over the weekend; both labor lawyers with controversial records.

That was an easy move, only requiring the president’s signature. Trying to enact something like EFCA will take a lot more work from supporters to convince already nervous moderate and conservative Democrats to get behind it. We shall see. Based on early 2010 Senatorial race predictions, this may be the best shot to pass EFCA for at least two more years- something not lost on labor unions and the president.

What The NLRB Recess Appointments Mean…

noreply@blogger.com (Brett) — Tue, 30 Mar 2010 13:17:00 +0000

Peter Kirsanow, a former member of the National Labor Relations Board, offered this assessment of what we could see from the NLRB with the recess appointments of Craig Becker and Mark Pearce; both union lawyers:

The concern is that the Board, by issuing decisions and rules, could elevate union certification rates near levels anticipated under card check. The concern isn't overblown. Even without the passage of EFCA, the Board could significantly change the organizational landscape. For example, the Board could adopt rules recognizing minority unions, implement ‘quickie’ elections, grant unions greater access to employees for organizational purposes, restrict employer options during union campaigns and elections, recast supervisors' roles during election campaigns, leverage neutrality/card-check agreements by overturning certain Bush Board decisions, and increase the use of mail-ballot elections.

As you may be aware, there are currently three openings on the board. President Obama had put forth three nominees, two Democrats and a Republican. However, Obama chose to appoint just the two Democratic nominees over the weekend, meaning the Republican needs to be confirmed by the Democratic-controlled Senate. In a different blog post, Kirsanow stated that he believed Brian Hayes, the Republican nominee, is being used as leverage in the Senate to confirm all three as part of a package deal.

Under a recess appointment, Becker and Pearce can only serve through the end of 2011. The seats will be vacant once again at that point if they are not confirmed. If they are confirmed, however, they can serve around another three years.

Unions Making Political Waves Early

noreply@blogger.com (Brett) — Tue, 16 Mar 2010 16:42:00 +0000

We had previously talked about the financial investment unions are ready to make in the 2010 elections, and now they are working to make their voice heard.

While this story may have unfolded in a Staten Island, New York congressional district, it could resonate throughout the country with moderate Democrats. The SEIU, last week, met with Rep. Mike McMahon (D-NY) and bluntly told him they will field a primary challenger against him should he vote against the healthcare bill.

The official who made the statement was Mike Fishman, president of SEIU 32bj, the largest property workers union in the country with 120,000 members in eight states. McMahon comes from a conservative district and opposed the bill last year, but Democrats and unions are looking for him to change his vote this time around.

Fishman said, “We put an enormous amount of effort into electing Democrats…If you can’t support this, we can’t support you.” That message is pretty clear. McMahon, for the record, is a co-sponsor of the Employee Free Choice Act, but clearly that is not enough.

Speaking of EFCA, one Senator who has held every position possible on the bill is Republican-turned-Democrat Arlen Specter. Specter, who is in a primary fight with Rep. Joe Sestak, received good news yesterday in the form of an endorsement from the SEIU.

Specter, as a Republican, announced his opposition to EFCA about a year ago sending a dagger in the hearts of labor unions. However, Specter soon bolted to the Democratic Party and modified his position to say he supports a compromise bill that he has been working on. Sestak has been challenging Specter from the left, but Specter’s new position seems to be good enough for the union. Specter also has the backing of the UAW and the Transportation Union (as well as several locals). Sestak has the backing of the UFCW.

Recent polls give Specter a big lead in the primary.

We will also be following the Arkansas Senate race where labor has put all their eggs in the basket of Lt. Gov. Bill Halter who is hoping to defeat Sen. Blanche Lincoln in the Democratic primary. Four unions- SEIU, AFL-CIO, AFSCME, and CWA- have pledged $1 million a piece to this primary. (This is an interesting way to spend their money considering polls show both Lincoln and Halter getting clobbered in the general election).

Lincoln- to her credit (or maybe not)- has ignored calls to move to the left in the race, continues to call herself an “independent voice,” and bashed Halter for using union money to pay off his debt from a previous campaign.

Stay tuned, we’ll only have more stories as we get closer to November.

AFL-CIO Will Be Heavily Involved In Midterms

noreply@blogger.com (Brett) — Wed, 03 Mar 2010 15:04:00 +0000

A lot of the talk involving the November elections is that rank-and-file union members are not exactly excited about helping out Democrats (as they were in 2008). Just how much ground work they provide remains to be seen, but the unions do not appear to be holding back financially.

The AFL-CIO is planning on spending more than they ever have this time around; likely surpassing the $53 million they spent in 2008. And the union will be focusing there money and efforts on six key states: California, Illinois, Nevada, New York, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

These states all have relatively high numbers of union workers and families, and play home to several important elections.

Of the six Senate elections in the states the AFL-CIO is focusing on, five seats are held by Democrats and one (Ohio) is held by Republicans. As it stands today, California (Boxer) and New York (Gillibrand) are relatively safe bets to hold for Democrats. Illinois (open), Ohio (open) and Pennsylvania (Specter) are all regarded as toss-ups, while Nevada (Reid) looks likely to flip to Republicans.

The states also have many competitive House elections that the AFL-CIO will be involved in.

On a side note, the AFL-CIO has endorsed Arkansas Lt. Gov Bill Halter in the Democratic primary against incumbent Sen. Blanche Lincoln. The union has committed $3 million toward Halter. Both Halter and Lincoln are trailing badly to the likely Republican opponent, and the odds are good this will flip sides in November.

But as we have said, look to see if the union members themselves are excited about the election- not just the bosses.

Will Labor Take Their Frustration Out on Democrats?

noreply@blogger.com (Brett) — Mon, 01 Mar 2010 16:44:00 +0000

The Associated Press had a write-up over the weekend where they examined just what was going on with organized labor as we are well into year two of the Obama administration- and just eight months away from mid-term elections.

It doesn’t take a genius to realize that labor is not happy- although in the past they have seemingly withheld that frustration publicly. When Obama chose healthcare reform as his top legislative fight, unions went along under the premise of “healthcare now, EFCA next.” And with a labor friendly president, a huge majority in the House, and a filibuster proof 60 seats in the Senate (at least until Scott Brown’s election in January), you had to like labor’s chances at getting their way.

Well, healthcare reform is stalled and EFCA has essentially been declared dead for now. When you consider that labor spent $400 million on Obama and Congressional Democrats, it doesn’t look like they have had a good return on investment quite yet.

Richard Trumka, AFL-CIO president, has started to criticize the work of Senate Democrats. He likened the $15 billion jobs bill to putting a “Band-Aid on an amputated limb.” But Trumka is far more likely to be casting blame on Senate Republicans. Earlier he urged a recess appointment for Craig Becker, the union lawyer whose NLRB nomination was blocked in the Senate, calling on supporters to “demand that President Obama fight Republican obstructionism.” I imagine Trumka and other labor leaders will stick to putting pressure on the White House privately.

If unions had trouble getting their agenda through this relatively friendly Congress, the 2010 mid-term election pose a definite challenge to them. United Steelworkers president Leo Gerard said “we’re going to have a hard time motivating our folks” to get involved in the election battles if Senators and Representatives do not push their agenda forward- which many Democrats have not been doing in their opinion.

Labor typically serves as the base of the support for Democrats performing tasks such as manning phone-banks and going door-to-door. The Democrats will need every bit of their enthusiasm as political analysts see four Democratic held seats in the Senate that Republicans look likely to win in the fall, with four more seats that could go either way. A net loss of four to seven seats is expected meaning the Democrats majority would be in the range of 52-55, which is a world away from the 60 Democrats once held.

Miss Me Yet?

noreply@blogger.com (Walter Orechwa) — Wed, 10 Feb 2010 19:00:00 +0000

It seems that out on I-35 near Wyoming, Minnesota there is a billboard that is well, in my words, "just damn funny!" No-- it's not the one pictured on the left, but one very similar with George W. Bush and the question: "Miss Me Yet?"

I don't know about you but I found this to be pretty funny. When I first heard about it (and saw it online), I thought it was just a picture that someone had photoshop-ed and put online as a joke. But then MPR (Minnesota Public Radio) did a story on the billboard in an effort to see who created it as well as who paid to put it up.

Half of the mystery was solved within a day. Schubert & Hoey Outdoor Advertising put the billboard up. But who paid them? An anonymous group of small business owners who "feel like Washington is against them" according to Mary Teske, General Manager.

What is amazing to me is that the NPR blog had 767 comments that got fairly entertaining until the NPR staff Associate Producer, Eyder Peralta wrote:

"We've closed this thread down, because even after a warning, the personal attacks and name calling - on both sides - have continued and we try our hardest to keep the conversation on NPR.org civilized."

Fox News calls "Bush Billboard a Sign of Hope and Change."

and to keep things fair: The Huffington Post reads, "We don't miss him, we miss making fun of him." They also have a "make your own George W. Bush billboard" photoshop contest going. Over 160 entries so far...

For what it's worth, I do miss George W. Bush. God Bless America.

Unions Still Claim Confidence In EFCA Passing

noreply@blogger.com (Brett) — Thu, 04 Feb 2010 13:55:00 +0000

Many people have speculated that EFCA is as good as dead for 2010 as Scott Brown became the 41st Republican, giving the GOP enough votes to filibuster any legislation should they all vote together (once he is seated). There also appears to be little sentiment on Capitol Hill- especially among Democrats in difficult re-election battles- to deal with controversial measures such as the Employee Free Choice Act.

Clearly, incumbents would much rather have issues like a jobs bill or tax cuts to run on rather than something like EFCA. But, that does not mean labor will just sit back and accept what appears to be political reality.

Over the weekend, AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka predicted that the EFCA will pass this year. Trumka argued that the bill will be good for the economy by raising wages, therefore giving Americans more disposable income. Trumka’s comments may be more wishful thinking than insider knowledge.

Sen. Tom Harkin (D-IA), who heads the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee, and has been a longtime supporter of the bill, said that the future of the bill is uncertain. He said talks for a compromise are ongoing (and have been for the past year), but that he doesn’t know if a vote will take place after the Massachusetts special election.

Harkin said that he still believes something needs to be done, and a bill may come up “this spring” or “before summer” but that is “just a possibility.” The Senator, however, could not commit to anything and didn’t offer any predictions as bold as Trumka’s.

EFCA In A Scott Brown World?

noreply@blogger.com (Brett) — Wed, 20 Jan 2010 15:32:00 +0000

While most of the political world was focused on what Scott Brown’s win means for big-tickets items like healthcare or cap-and-trade, many of the back-burner issues will also be affected. This, of course, includes the Employee Free Choice Act.

With 41 seats in the Senate, Republicans can now filibuster EFCA (or any other bill) should they hold the entire caucus. EFCA was never an issue on the campaign, and Brown’s position is beyond me, although you would have to think he opposes it. Labor unions- both nationally and in Massachusetts- backed the Democratic nominee Martha Coakley, but interestingly Brown won about 46% of union members- a surprisingly high total for any Republican.

My first thought is that it is not the fact that Republicans have 41 votes, which may kill EFCA for 2010, but the fact that this should be a warning sign to Democrats that voters are not happy about the direction of the country and they need to modify their agenda. It is not whether Scott Brown supports or opposes EFCA, but that I don’t see how you get moderate Democrats from conservative states to vote on this bill in light of the Massachusetts special election.

Now, Obama has initially responded that he will not alter his agenda- but rather kick it up a notch. But morning-after statements from various Congressional Democrats have given me the impression that that will not be possible. After all, they are the ones up for re-election in 2010 who have to sell these unpopular plans to their constituents.

Labor unions have also taken a similar approach to Obama’s. SEIU President Andy Stern said the reason Democrats’ lost last night was because of “Washington's inability to deliver the change voters demanded in November 2008.” I wouldn’t expect labor to back down anytime soon considering the money they have invested in the president.

Labor leaders kept insisting that EFCA would come after healthcare. They have also made a point of saying that Democrats will need them to win in 2010. As long as big labor is still heavily involved in politics with a friendly White House and majorities in Congress, bills such as EFCA will still hang around. But as for right now, I would say the best labor can hope for is a weak compromise bill, hiding it in a jobs bill (and hoping no one finds out), or getting the NLRB to institute certain provisions of it.

So what is Projections' advice for companies wondering what to do now? It is the same as it ever was--take advantage of organized labor's current state of confusion (and the time it gives you) to communicate with your employees and train your supervisors and managers about your company's union free philosophy. Waiting for the EFCA to come to fruition or letting labor continue to devise other work arounds will be simply giving your advantage right back to the unions.

Ever Been to Onaway, Michigan?

noreply@blogger.com (Walter Orechwa) — Thu, 14 Jan 2010 16:45:00 +0000

Ever been to Onaway, Michigan? Don't feel bad neither have 95% of the UAW members. Onaway, Michigan is in the Northern tip of Michigan, a stone's throw (across Lake Huron) from Canada.

What's in Onaway you ask?

Why the $33 million dollar lakeside Walter and May Reuther Family Education Center and Black Lake Golf Club that the UAW owns on behalf of its members. Surely, you've vacationed there! Or at least went to a UAW convention there or maybe a Local meeting? No? Huh, that's strange. I just figured since it had lost (and is still losing) an estimated $23 million over the past five years, that perhaps you had visited there or played a round or two of golf. I hear the $6.4 million dollar, award-winning course has only $2 locker rental for UAW members (the public pays $5). See the advantages you are missing?

"The Family Education Center was the dream of former UAW President Walter P. Reuther who built it as a retreat for workers and their families that would give them a deeper understanding of the UAW and the union movement away from the routine of their daily lives." (from blacklakegolf.com)

Try this for a deeper understanding, the UAW says that it covers the cost from the interest it earns on its strike fund but the reality is that with the $23 million in losses they had to make heavy loans to keep the retreat afloat. So don't go on strike until at least 2015...

"It's their member's money that they're spending on this thing," said Justin Wilson, managing director of the Center for Union Facts. Other critics call it a resort for union leaders that wastes money from union dues.

The UAW says it sends workers there to "learn, experience unionism and commit to labor's cause," according to their website.

In fact, the UAW website says: "Youngsters ages 12-15 will enjoy union involvement workshops, golf, swimming and gym games." But you had better hurry, because the UAW is about to unload the entire thing--It's For Sale.

"UAW officials say the recession and shrinking membership are behind the expected sale of it lakeside retreat in Northern Michigan." (from wilx.com AP report)

So expect a refund on your hard-earned dues money any day now and use it to enroll your "youngsters" in summer camp somewhere else. Be sure to ask the camp director about the "union involvement" workshops across from Archery and Basketweaving...

Labor Leaders Push For EFCA in 2010

noreply@blogger.com (Brett) — Mon, 11 Jan 2010 19:45:00 +0000

We have seen two things through the first year of Barack Obama’s presidency that tend to contradict each other. On the one hand, labor leaders such as Andy Stern and Richard Trumka have been some of the most active guests at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. At the same time, labor has been largely disappointed by what they have seen from the president and Congress- both strong allies.

They have, on a couple of occasions this year, criticized legislation being pushed by the House or Senate. They have not, however, decided to openly rebuke the president. I imagine most of their dealings happen behind the scenes and would rather avoid a public fight. Because of this, labor leaders have been rather quiet with respect to the Employee Free Choice Act- their marquee legislation that the president promised to advocate for when he was a candidate.

Their happy face on EFCA generally revolves around “it’s coming soon.” With the Democrats deciding to spend most of 2009 on healthcare reform legislation, labor leaders said EFCA was next.

In recent articles, both AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka and SEIU President Andy Stern expressed confidence in a vote coming sometime soon- with Stern indicating a vote in the spring. Stern is certainly privy to this type of information, and Senate leaders have said talks are continuous, but whether there is the stomach for this type of bill remains to be seen.

If the Democrats were to lose just one seat in the fall, Republicans would be able to block this bill in the next Congress should they hold their entire caucus. Right now, signs indicate Democrats will have a net loss of seats- at least one- if the elections were held today.

I would expect more of a panicked tone from labor should we get into the summer with no EFCA yet and the political winds continue to look much as they do now. They will not let the money and effort they spent in 2008 go without at least a vote and serious push by the president.

House Republicans Voice Opposition to Proposed NMB Labor Law Change

noreply@blogger.com (Brett) — Thu, 07 Jan 2010 16:07:00 +0000

Thirty-one House Republicans signed a letter addressed to National Mediation Board Chairwoman Elizabeth Dougherty expressing their opposition to changing union election procedures for airline and railroad personnel. The proposed law would allow a union to be voted in if just a majority of those voting approve of it. Currently, a majority of the bargaining unit has to support it for the union to be recognized.

Here is the letter:

Dear Chairman Dougherty and Members of the Board:

We are writing in strong opposition to the Board’s proposed rule to modify a 75 year policy and legal precedent contained in the Railway Labor Act (RLA) in order to allow union representation in circumstances where a majority of the workers do not wish to join a union.

The current longstanding voting rules are well grounded in the unique language of the RLA. The law does not refer to a majority of “voters”. It says that a majority of the workers in a class or craft must vote for a union for it to be certified. The decision on the right to join a union belongs to a majority of workers, not to the company, not to the government and certainly not to the union. Under the Board’s proposal a small minority of a work group could impose union representation on the majority. The U.S. Supreme Court has upheld the current majority rule voting procedure used by the NMB.

Unlike the provisions of the National Labor Relations Act, once it is certified, a union might never have to stand for reelection because the NMB voting rules do not have a voting process that allows employees to petition for decertification. We understand that the Board has failed to consider various requests to include this change in new voting rules. Clearly, in its present form the Board proposal violates the rights of workers who choose not to purchase the services of a labor union.

We have concluded that this proposed voting rule change is quite similar to the approach contained in the Employee Free Choice Act. It is a politically motivated decision that tilts airline and rail representation elections in the favor of organized labor. This decision is too important to be decided by two appointed and unelected Democrats who have chosen to ignore legal and policy precedents that have governed representation rules for airline and rail employees for more than 75 years.

We firmly believe that the Board does not have the legal authority to change the majority rule representation requirement and that any changes should be made by Congress. We urge you to withdraw the proposed rule.

EFCA in 2010?

noreply@blogger.com (Brett) — Tue, 05 Jan 2010 15:33:00 +0000

Steve Rosenthal, a Democratic consultant and former political director of the AFL-CIO, told Bloomberg last week that the Employee Free Choice Act may have life in 2010. He sees it being incorporated in legislation next year designed to create jobs. A “jobs bill” has been at the top of the Senate’s list for 2010- but what is included in it remains to be seen.

Rosenthal based this on the theory that Democrats will need labor’s support in the mid-term elections, and this is the bill that will energize the traditional ally.

Of course, the flip side of the argument is that Democrats were forced to take a number of controversial votes in 2009 and may not have the appetite to do so in the election year. This specifically includes Democrats in potentially competitive elections such as Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas, Michael Bennet in Colorado and Byron Dorgan in North Dakota. Several other Democrats- with and without upcoming elections- have also expressed reservations.

Nancy Pelosi has already gone on the record to say that any controversial vote- such as EFCA- will need to pass through the Senate first as she doesn’t want to ask members of the House to make these difficult votes only to see bills die in the Senate.