Empty the Bench

Dwight Howard is the NBA’s Most Impossible Player to Gameplan For

ETB Contributor — Wed, 10 Mar 2010 15:25:07 +0000

Dwight Howard Photos Credit: Icon SMI

Imagine being an NBA coach, and your squad is about to face the Cavaliers. What do you do about LeBron James? Who do you have that’s willing to stick him, has the quickness to not get embarrassed on the perimeter, and has the size and strength to not get embarrassed in the paint?

Gameplanning for James’ offensive abilities is obviously a devastating thought, as it is when you face Dwyane Wade, Chris Paul, Carmelo Anthony, and a handful of other premier offensive centerpieces. But are you really that worried about any of these stars shutting down your offense? You popping any Advils thinking about who Kevin Durant might guard on your squad tonight?

Usually a team’s defensive system, not its individual players, is what you gameplan for on that side of the ball, but occasionally a coach has problems on his hands if the other club just happens to have Ron Artest and Shane Battier in their starting lineup. More often, a true stopper in the middle needs to be accounted for from an individual standpoint: Are we going inside against Chris Andersen? Eh, let’s roll the dice from the perimeter.

Rare is the player who opposing coaches have to consider and plan around because of both parts of their game. Dwight Howard pops out as the most complete WTF-do-we-do-about-that-guy player in the league. Not only is he far and away the most intimidating defender, altering and discouraging just about everything inside of 15 feet, his capabilities define how the Magic’s offensive scheme works to a degree that only Steve Nash’s relation to the Suns’ fast break can compare.

To see how difficult a task gameplanning for Howard is, one should examine what he provides in terms of offense and defense, and how important he is to what the Magic are trying to accomplish on both ends of the court.

Gameplanning for Howard’s Defense

It’s no big secret that Howard is the best defensive player in the league. He’s the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, the odds-on favorite to win it again this year, and his team’s Defensive Rating continues to sit right near the top of the league. In fact, Orlando’s defensive rating has ranked between 1st and 6th in the NBA for each of the past four seasons, including the current one. That would be every year since Howard turned 20 years old.

Much more on Dwight Howard’s strangehold on the NBA after the break…

Whereas an amazing perimeter defender can slow down a great scorer, an amazing interior defender can slow down whole teams. Consider the transformation of the Magic’s defense: for the fourth straight season, they rank among the game’s elite. The previous four seasons—which includes Howard’s two seasons as a teenager and the two prior to his arrival—were abysmal. They had the worst defensive rating in the entire league in 2003-04, the year before Orlando wisely drafted Howard over Emeka Okafor. That season is mercifully mixed in with others in which their defense ranked 18th, 20th, and 24th in the league, putting their D squarely in the below-average to worst range.

How’d he flip his team’s defensive mojo so drastically? (Brian Hill was the coach before and after the big turnaround, so don’t assume Stan Van Gundy came in and straightened things out.) For starters, his blocked shots have risen sharply from 1.4 to nearly 3 per due to experience and a better ability to slide into the paint from the weakside. More importantly than that, however, is the perception that he can block any shot inside the lane.

This creates fear in opponents, and fear creates bad shots. Three blocked shots out of 85 attempts doesn’t drastically improve a defense. But 3 blocks coupled with 10-15 fearfully poor shots inside, plus another 10 that are now taken a little farther back than desired so they won’t be rejected can screw up an offense real good.

The Magic yield only 17.3 buckets per inside of 10 feet. The only team to allow less, Cleveland at 17.1, plays at a significantly slower pace. Additionally, Orlando allows only 52% of shots that close to go in, the lowest in a league that surrenders 56% from that distance. Howard’s blend of sheer physical force paired with his rare-for-his-size explosiveness makes for a defensive force any opposing coach would be scared to send players near, which creates some problems because the most fruitful shots and passes are supposed to happen close to the hoop.

Not only are other teams not able to hit as many shots as they’d like against the Magic (who allow a 44% FG%, best in the league), they can’t get the rebounds either. Orlando tops everyone in defensive rebounding percentage at 77%. I don’t have to tell you who’s about to lead the league for the fifth straight year in rebounds and third straight year in defensive rebounds.

Gameplanning for Howard’s Offense

Howard averages 19 points on 10 shots per. Think about that. He misses an average of only 1 shot each quarter. No one in the league can approach that level of efficiency. Sure, he’s only second in effective field-goal percentage and true shooting percentage, but he averages far more points than Nene and Kendrick Perkins, the two players who are barely ahead of him in each category right now.

Howard’s field-goal percentage has been up around 60% for the past four seasons, which puts him right on par with Shaquille O’Neal’s best stretches. Shaq certainly did a better job of demanding the ball for more shots, but he is also a 53% career free-throw shooter. Howard definitely isn’t great from the charity stripe, but he’s knocked down over 60% for his career and for this season.

This is where most opponents take their chances with Howard: at the free-throw line. He leads the league with 10.3 free throw attempts per, so it’s clear what coaches want their players to do with him in lieu of getting dunked on: Hack-a-Dwight. Sometimes an opposing coach wants to stop Howard altogether and opts to double-team him; this is where Howard’s true importance to the Magic offense becomes evident. They have been built to punish any team that gives him too much attention.

As Cleveland and the rest of us learned in the 2009 Playoffs, Orlando likes to shoot 3’s… a lot of 3’s. They have eight players who average at least 2.5 triple attempts per. As a team, they toss up over 27 per, way ahead of anyone who plays at their speed. And for the teams that play much faster and jack lots of triples in transition, like Phoenix and Indiana and New York, the Magic average more than them too.

Because Howard attracts so much attention in the paint, the rest of his teammates can hang out on the perimeter waiting for their chance to throw up bombs over a collapsed defense. Everyone’s shooting improves dramatically when they don’t have defenders pestering them (ask Cleveland’s Delonte West and Mo Williams), and Orlando’s perimeter shooters don’t get nearly the attention Howard commands. Without the big guy in the middle, Orlando wouldn’t be shooting 36% from deep (7th in NBA), and they sure wouldn’t be leading the league by a mile with 30 points per off trifectas.

The result of this unique system—get it inside to Howard for certain points or outside to wide-open shooters if he’s covered tightly—is a healthy 53% eFG%, the NBA’s third-best rate. The Magic’s Offensive Rating is around 110 for the third straight season, something Orlando hasn’t accomplished since Shaq was in town, back when the “Fresh Prince of Bel-Air”/”Blossom” lineup was working wonders for NBC.

There are very few players in the NBA to whom you can attribute the entire success of their team’s offensive system (giving LeBron James high-fives is not a system). Orlando has a distinct way of trying to score, and it has no chance of working without Howard. Steve Nash running the Suns’ fast break also falls into this category. Outside of these two, no one else is so responsible for the structure and outcome of a team’s offense.

Bringing It All Together

Howard is in a league by himself when it comes to giving opposing coaches headaches. There are probably 12-18 players whose offensive skills legitimately can’t be neutralized without sacrificing massive amounts of production from their four teammates. Howard is certainly in this group. Additionally, Orlando’s team was specifically built to score based on what Howard brings to the table. Appropriately, it is quite a good offense.

On the defensive end, only an inside enforcer can drastically affect a team’s overall ability to curb scoring. Luc Mbah a Moute and Tayshaun Prince can throw a monkeywrench into Durant’s plans to drop 25 points in a night, but a single wing defender isn’t turning a bad defense into a great defense: a big with the right instincts and attitude can. As great a job as Gerald Wallace and Andrew Bogut have done in this capacity, Howard is the best in the business at patrolling the paint, making scoring a real chore for other teams.

Gameplanning for either of these two types of players—offensive juggernaut or defensive stopper—is enough of a pain, and Dwight Howard’s the only NBA player near the top of the game at both. Good luck coaches; Howard’s more than capable of “surprising” the world again this post-season.

Zachariah Blott cannot recommend Rick Telander’s “Heaven Is A Playground” enough.

Checking in with the NFL’s 2010 Free Agents

Andrew Thell — Tue, 09 Mar 2010 10:18:57 +0000

Julius Peppers photo credit: Icon SMI

By Andrew Thell

2010 is not the free agency bonanza we sometimes see, even though we are entering the uncapped season, but there are some serious playmakers who have already signed with new teams and who still linger in unrestricted free agency. In a class short on star power, Julius Peppers appears to be the only franchise-changing player to hit the market, and he was quickly taken off the board by a team few people were excited about the prospects of after last season – but perhaps should be now.

Below you’ll find a list of the nine players who have signed with news teams in rough order of the impact I expect them to make followed by a list of seven of the finest free agents still on the market – as of this writing, at least, things change fast in early free agency.

You’ll notice five prominent omissions on the Best of the Rest section: LaDainian Tomlinson, Brian Westbrook, Willie Parker, Larry Johnson and Thomas Jones. We all know what that quintet has in common. They’re former stars at the running back position who are over the age of 30, have been run into the ground or both. The position is not one of longevity in today’s NFL, and yesterday’s superstar back is on today’s scrap heap in shockingly short order. That’s the way of the league, and there’s nary a player at the position who can buck the trend – except one man, who made my first list …

The Most Significant Free Agents Signings Thus Far

Julius Peppers, DE, Chicago Bears: Peppers is an elite talent, there’s no question about that. In a pass-happy league where every team is desperate for more pressure Peppers is the type of player who can dominate a game from the defensive end position, manhandling any left tackle in the league when he’s on. When the Panthers pulled off a shocking win against the Minnesota Vikings back in December it was partly some strong play by QB Matt Moore and RB Jonathan Stewart, but it was much more Peppers embarrassing Bryant McKinnie every down and making Brad Childress look foolish for refusing to give his struggling LT help. He was that good. There are some concerns about Peppers mentally, if he loves the game and if he’s committed to getting the most out of his talent (especially with that fat contract in place). Making a guy with those issues the highest paid non-quarterback in the NFL could come back to haunt them, but on paper he’s going to go a long way toward making that Bears defense scary again.

Karlos Dansby, LB, Miami Dolphins: Dansby is a plus player. He can rush the QB, is decent in run support and drops back into coverage well. He’ll make big, timely plays. Miami’s big acquisition isn’t in the same class as Peppers, and $8 million per season with $22 million in guaranteed was probably more than anybody else was willing to pay, but Dansby will certainly upgrade the Dolphins linebacking corps.

Antrel Rolle, S, New York Giants: Rolle couldn’t cut it as a cornerback, but the exceptional athlete has morphed into an above-average safety since making the position switch. The $37 million contract, with $15 million guaranteed, is a bit rich but the Giants simply couldn’t head into next season without upgrading their dismal safety play. Rolle doesn’t have great instincts, which killed him as a corner, but he can make up for it with great range and a knack for making plays at safety. If SS Kenny Phillips can return to form one of the Giants major weaknesses from 2009 could be a strength in 2010.

Dunta Robinson, CB, Atlanta Falcons: Dunta Robinson is a solid playmaker with the tools to be a strong cover corner, but he’s a tad overrated and you get the feeling that the Falcons overpaid for a brand name here. $25.5 million guaranteed is a bit steep for such an inconsistent player coming off a disappointing season, but such is the market for corners and at 27 Robinson could still blossom into a Pro Bowl level talent.

Chester Taylor, RB, Chicago Bears: He’s 30 years old, but Taylor has only topped 300 carries once in his career and never gone over 160 in any other season. A consummate professional, Chester is a strong blocker, catches the ball well out of the backfield, runs hard and can play on any down – excelling in a third-down capacity when called upon.

After the pedestrian effort we saw out of Matt Forte last season it’s not out of line to suggest Taylor is the most complete, valuable back on the Bears roster heading into next season. Taylor excelled as a starter for Minnesota before the drafting of Adrian Peterson and is one of the most underrated backs in the NFL with plenty left in his tank despite the advanced age.

Chester Taylor Photo Credit: Jamie Squire/Getty Images

Aaron Kampman, DE, Jacksonville Jaguars: Coming off a torn ACL and a season in which he looked completely out of place playing linebacker in a 3-4, teams looking to upgrade their pass rush in a 4-3 defense at a slight discount were targeting Kampman. However, at 30 years old and unlikely to be at full strength for the start of the season the Jags are a curious destination. Still, he’s a quality pass rusher who can bring the heat and the contract is less than a third of what Peppers went for in total.

Kyle Vanden Bosch, DE, Detroit Lions: Vanden Bosch is a productive, high-motor player that should be a nice move toward revamping the toothless Lions defensive line. At 31 years of age the four-year, $26 million deal seems a bit steep but I think he’s got plenty left in the tank. Lions coach Jim Schwartz previously served as the Titans defensive coordinator and he knows what Vanden Bosch will bring to his team – on the field, in the locker room, in the weight room and in the meeting room – and playing alongside newly acquired DT Corey Williams, who will return to his natural position in a 4-3, the Lions line should be improved.

Nate Burleson, WR, Detroit Lions: Even with uber talent Calvin Johnson on board, this was a far bigger area of need for Detroit than many realize. Burleson has had an inconsistent career, but he has all the tools to be the No. 2 receiver Detroit so desperately needs opposite franchise cornerstone Megatron. Burleson has a bit of an injury history, but he also possesses good hands, decent speed, can gain yards after the catch and is capable of making plays in the air. He’ll be the best receiver to line up opposite Johnson in his short career and, along with second-year TE Brandon Pettigrew, should give young QB Matthew Stafford a nice safety blanket and secondary playmaker to take the constant pressure off of Johnson.

Tony Pashos, T, Cleveland Browns: The Browns got a slight discount after Pashos’ injury-marred season in 2009. He’s shown an ability to stay healthy in the previous eight years of his career and Pashos is capable of thriving in a power running attack like the one we expect Mike Holmgren to install in Cleveland. He’s not quite of the Bobbie Williams or Stephen Neal caliber, but Pashos was one of the finest guards on the market.

After the jump, the best players left on the UFA market …

Darren Sharper photo credit: Icon SMI

The Best Left on the Unrestricted Free Agent Market

Leigh Bodden, CB, New England Patriots: Bodden isn’t the exceptional talent many considered him during his Cleveland days, but he is a solid cover corner and there just aren’t enough of those to go around. After a failed stint in Detroit he rehabbed his value in New England with five picks and 18 pass breakups. Bodden could provide a nice, not great, upgrade for a lot of secondaries out there – though I would be a bit surprised if the Pats let him walk.

UPDATE: The Pats have re-signed Bodden for five years at $28.5 million with $10 million guaranteed.

Ryan Clark, S, Pittsburgh Steelers: Clark is a big-time hitter who isn’t commanding a big-time paycheck, so teams looking to upgrade their rush defense and tacking over the middle could do well for themselves by handing him a modest contract. The Steelers secondary played poorly in the absence of Troy Polamalu last season, but Clark has good instincts and managed 89 tackles. Clark makes all kinds of sense as a reasonably priced replacement for Antrel Rolle in Arizona.

UPDATE: The Steelers re-signed Clark to a four-year, $17 million contract.

Bobbie Williams, G, Cincinnati Bengals: I’m a little surprised this guy hasn’t garnered more attention on the open market. He’s 33 years old, but Williams is a nasty blocker that could really help a team’s running for a few seasons to come. He had a great 2009 blocking for Cedric Benson, but if nobody else jumps into the bidding it’s looking like the Bengals will be able to re-sign Williams for a reasonable price.

Dwan Edwards, DE, Baltimore Ravens: Edwards flies under most radars, but he’s a big young defensive end that is coming from a great defensive system and can get in the trenches and mix it up. After playing in a 3-4 at end, Edwards would likely be best served shifting to tackle on a 4-3 and providing solid run support with the burst to occasionally harass passers.

Antonio Bryant, WR, Tampa Bay Bucs: He’s a head case, and any team that gives Bryant consideration will need to have a steady hand at coach and strong leadership in the locker room. That said, Bryant is still in the prime of his career and the man can stretch a field. A team like Baltimore, who is looking at Bryant, could really take advantage of that with strong-armed Joe Flacco under center.

Ben Watson, TE, New England Patriots: The position is changing at an alarming rate, and the athletic TE is very much en vogue. Watson isn’t a huge playmaker in the passing game or the blocking game, but he can do both and he’s an above-average athlete who can make plays inside the 20.

Darren Sharper, S, New Orleans Saints: Sharper isn’t nearly the safety his interceptions numbers would lead you to believe and he’s overhyped even more after the Saints Super Bowl run. At this stage of his career he’s actually a big liability in coverage, but you can’t ignore his nose for the ball, leadership and big-play ability. Teams with strong cover units and a need for playmaking on defense could do a lot worse than inking Sharper to a mid-level, one-year deal.

Thanks for Joining Us, Courtney Lee

Brian Spencer — Tue, 09 Mar 2010 09:28:12 +0000

By Brian Spencer

Oh hi, Courtney Lee. Good to see you! We’ve been anxiously awaiting your arrival in New Jersey for, oh, damn near 4 months now. Better late than never, I suppose?

You might remember Lee as the only real asset the Nets received in last summer’s deal that shipped Vince Carter to the Orlando Magic (well, that and cap space to entice LeBron James but ultimately to overpay Amare Stoudemire in a few months here). A late first-round pick from Western Kentucky in ‘08, Lee played a pivotal role in the Magic’s ascent to the top of the Eastern Conference during his rookie season, evolving into one of the team’s top perimeter defenders and flashing raw, intriguing offensive capability.

If anything, we learned he’s a smart player, even as a rookie, who did little to hurt his team and a lot to help it. On the season, Lee started 42 regular-season games, finishing with modest pers of 8.4 points (45% FG), 2.3 boards, 1.2 assists, 1 steal, and 1.1 triples in about 25 minutes a night. The Magic probably would have preferred to keep him, but they’re firmly in win-now mode and despite his considerable warts, Carter gives them a better chance. (Even though, you know, he’s sort of a loser.)

And so, much to his chagrin, Lee was dealt. Can’t imagine why he’d be less-than-psyched about going from a contender like Orlando to a bottom-feeder like New Jersey, but he eventually relented and seemed to recognize this as a golden opportunity to step right into a different kind of starting job than he’d had in Orlando. One where he’d be relied upon as a primary scoring option, not as a guy nibbling on scraps left over from Dwight Howard, Rashard Lewis, Jameer Nelson, etc.

What more could a young guy want? Yeah, playing for a functional franchise not pinning its future on ping-pong balls and the whims of in-demand megastars would be nice, but hey, you can’t everything.

And so it was that Courtney Lee was penciled in for 35+ minutes a night for the Nets and given the green light to do whatever it took to make it happen. One problem: it didn’t happen. Lee missed 7 of the team’s first 13 games due to injury, and shot a “blistering” 31% from the field in the 6 games he did play in. He’s since missed just 4 games, but until recently, it’s mostly been ugly, including an abyssmal January in which he averaged 10.3 points (41% FG, 33% 3PT), 2.9 boards, 2 assists, and 1.2 steals in 31:30 minutes per in 13 games. This is for the Nets, mind you.

But, suddenly, hardwood epiphany. Lee has scored at least 21 points in 6 of his last 10 games (let’s just ignore that 0-9 effort a few weeks ago against the Heat), has shot an even 50% during this stretch, and helped propel the Nets to three whole wins along the way, which has pushed their overall record to 7-56, a mere 41 games back of the Cleveland Cavaliers for top seed in the East. The 6-5 shooting guard capped it Monday night with a career-high 30 points (13-20 FG) along with 5 boards, 2 assists, and 2 steals in the Nets’ nailbiter of a loss 107-101 to the Grizzlies.

Fluke, or has Lee turned a corner? The kid received high praise from his Magic teammates after the trade, and is widely respected around the league. Shaquille O’Neal said Lee would “make the Magic pay”. Me, I’m not worried about Lee’s long-term future. For now, I’m just happy he finally showed up.

Courtney Lee Photo Credit: Icon SMI

From ETB’s Archives: The Case for Streaming in Fantasy Hoops

Brian Spencer — Tue, 09 Mar 2010 01:33:38 +0000

Karina Taylor and Christina Riddering Photo Credit: Icon SMI

By Brian Spencer

With just 2 weeks remaining until the fantasy hoops playoffs roll around, I’m left to grasp at one last straw with two of my three teams currently on the outside looking in: streaming.

Few strategies are as polarizing as the daily add-drop, add-drop, add-drop approach to amassing stats and winning categories. Some dismiss it as borderline cheating, as a desperate interpretation of the rules in leagues where the commish failed to institute a cap on roster moves. Others see it as just another means of achieving an end, and recognize that there’s plenty of strategizing and thought that go into it.

When do you start the process? Who should you add, and who should you drop? Which categories are you trying to “steal”, and which categories are you outright giving up on? Which players are worth hanging onto just in case it works and you advance?

The fact is my two teams still gunning for a postseason bid have seriously underperformed. In one league, Jason Richardson and Charlie Villanueva haven’t exactly graded out as the 5th- and 6th-round picks I made them, Greg Oden and Michael Redd bowed out early with season-ending injuries, and, well… let’s just say this is the last time I reach on Elton Brand.

In the other, Jose Calderon has a been a huge bust as a third-round pick, Oden’s body happened, and Tyrus Thomas, Trevor Ariza, Jason Thompson, and Ramon Sessions have all not taken the fantasy steps forward I was banking on. My last few picks on draft day were terrible.

So what am I supposed to do? Give up, even though despite it all I’ve managed to stay within 3.5 and 5 games, respectively, of a playoff berth with 2 weeks to go? Fuck no. I’m streaming till the bitter end.

But we’ve already covered this topic before, so let’s reach into the vast ETB vault and pull out Andrew’s fine case for streaming in fantasy hoops:

Let’s take a moment and discuss the ethical status of streaming first: there is none. There is nothing wrong with streaming. First, it’s perfectly permissible within the rules. You can look them up. Nowhere will you find a clause specifically prohibiting adding and dropping players to gain a strategic edge.

Second, this is a legitimate fantasy sports strategy: it takes basketball knowledge, it takes skill, it takes diligence, it takes timing, it takes the ability to project performances, it takes finesse and there are real risks built into the league (FG%, FT% and TOs).

Third, this is a competition. It’s supposed to be cutthroat. So not only can you stream, as a participant in a communal contest it is incumbent upon you to maintain the competitive integrity of the league. We all frown upon those owners who give up on their teams weeks or months before the end of the season because it ruins that competitive balance. If you lose by 10 points and a couple of add/drops would have put you over the edge, you’re not much better.

That’s just the tip of the streaming iceberg. For much more on the underrated art of streaming, including best practices and how to fight back when somebody does it to you, revisit Andrew Thell’s case for streaming in fantasy hoops.

Curling Enthusiasm Sweeps the Globe

Andrew Thell — Sat, 06 Mar 2010 16:03:43 +0000

Every four years in the wake of the Winter Olympics the world is gripped with inexplicable enthusiasm for the sport of curling. If you’re not familiar with curling, it’s the one where people quietly take turns sliding heavy rocks over ice. It’s like a simpler version of shuffleboard. On ice! Yes, it’s pretty great – although this duo from Australia’s Today Show may be taking their enthusiasm just a bit too far …

The NBA’s Two Biggest Free-Agent Busts of the Season Play for the Same Team

Brian Spencer — Fri, 05 Mar 2010 15:30:48 +0000

Ben Gordon Photo Credit: Icon SMI

By Brian Spencer

Not good, Joe Dumars, not good at all.

As far as leashes on NBA GMs go, Dumars has had as long a one as any executive in the league, and deservedly so. He was the man behind the curtain of the franchise’s dominance during the ‘00s, gifting Piston fans with one stroke of genius after the other and helping keep them in serious title contention for six straight seasons. Drafting Tayshaun Prince, turning Chauncey Billups from vagabond to All-Star, trading for Rip Hamilton, Ben Wallace, and Rasheed Wallace for relative nickels on the dime. There were missteps along the way, to be sure—let’s not beat this horse today—but nobody’s perfect.

But, then, he tried to pull off a magic trick that didn’t go as scripted: Iverson was a spectacular failure as a Detroit Piston, and while the team did sneak into last year’s playoffs, it was expeditiously dismissed in four games by the Cleveland Cavaliers. Meanwhile, a rejuvenated Billups damn near guided the Denver Nuggets to the promised land. If we know anything about the world of professional sports, it’s that athletes are overpaid and the fans have a short memory. It would have been off with Dumars’ head if not for the net cap space gained by the Billups trade.

Oh, that glorious cap space! The possibilities! In Joe We Trust!

Er, uh, yeah… about that cap space. It’s gone. Poof. No redos, no backsies, it’s been spent, what’s done is done. And how was it spent? On the two biggest busts of last year’s free-agent class: Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva. Two guys coming off career seasons, two guys in the midst of following up with career-worst seasons.

Gordon, brought to Detroit on a generous 5-year, $55 million deal, has been dreadful. We all tend to sometimes underestimate the impact injuries can have on performance, even after they’ve “healed,” and in Gordon’s defense, his timing was probably thrown all sorts of off after suffering an ankle injury that kept him out of 19 games and limited him in many others.

But, really, he’s reasonably healthy at this point and still laying bricks at a ridiculously high rate while contributing little else in the way of defense (big surprise there). Signed in part to shore up Detroit’s game from behind the arc, Gordon is shooting a career-low 30% from three-point land; ladies and gentlemen, that’s a full 10 points below his previous low mark, set as a rookie back in 2004-05. 10 points! All in all, through 42 games he’s averaging a paltry 14 points (42% FG), 2.4 assists, 1.9 boards, and 0.7 steals… and he’s coming off the bench.

Charlie V is a backup, too, but the difference is he’s not playing behind a former All-Star (Hamilton) like Gordon is. No, Villanueva has been soundly outplayed by new fan-favorite Jonas Jerebko, the Swedish rookie destined for All-NBA Rookie First Team honors next month. He’s also arguably been outplayed by Jason Maxiell, sometimes even Chris Wilcox. That’s not supposed to happen.

Inked to a 5-year, $35 million deal after a strong season with the Milwaukee Bucks, Villanueva has been soft like a soggy, wet french fry. He’s enjoyed the occasional offensive explosion, but inconsistency has always plagued his career and nothing’s changed so far in Detroit. He’s still defensively challenged upstairs, still passive to a fault, still infatuated with the triple when he could be dominating in the post.

And while Villanueva has performed (far) below expectations on a whole, his play has been particularly abominable as of late: in 12 February games, he shot 39% from the field in averaging a dismal 6.2 points, 3.8 boards, and little else. He’s been even worse so far in March (35% FG, 6.5 points, 2 boards).

So there you have it: Gordon and Villanueva are your biggest free-agent busts of 2009. Which of them deserves honors as the biggest bust? After the break our friends from HOOPSWORLD, Lester’s Legends, and Give Me The Rock weigh in….

Patrick Madden, Give Me The Rock:

The Pistons have two of the most disappointing free agent signings from the summer of 09 in Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva. Choosing which one has been more disappointing this year is like choosing which one of your children is a bigger failure at life. That being said, Gordon did have slightly higher expectations going into this season (he was drafted at 60.3 in the average ESPN fantasy league compared to 79.6 for Villanueva) and is getting paid $20 million more than Charlie V. So Ben Gordon it is.

Other than the first few weeks of the season when Rip Hamilton was hurt, not much has gone right for Gordon this season. He’s missed 19 games with ankle and groin injuries and has struggled to find both his shot and his role with the team since returning from injury. In last night’s game against the Celtics, for example, Gordon finished 2 of 8 from the floor with 8 points in 26 minutes and was taken out of the game after Nate Robinson torched him for 14 points in 15 minutes on the court.

There are a number of factors affecting Gordon’s game this season: the injuries of course, but also Coach John Kuester’s inconsistent rotations and Gordon’s own subpar defense. However, I think Gordon’s problems can basically be boiled down to this fact: the Pistons don’t need Ben Gordon as long as they have Rip Hamilton, who fills the same role as Gordon and is still a better player than him even at 32. As I read the other day, it is tough for Gordon to get involved in the Pistons’ offense when it consists of them running screens for Hamilton. Add in the fact that he plays alongside two scoring point guards and you have a situation where Gordon has the ball in his hands a lot less than he did in Chicago. And that’s when his defensive deficiencies begin to catch up with him.

What can Gordon do to turn things around? Well, maiming Rip Hamilton would be a start. Nothing serious, a pipe to the knee should be enough. But seriously, Ben Gordon’s future is directly influenced by Hamilton. The Pistons have made some rumblings about trading Rip this offseason and – if they were smart – that is exactly what they’d do. If Hamilton goes, then Ben Gordon is in for a bounce back season and should be on everyone’s sleeper lists come October. If not, then Gordon might be on track to become one of the great free agent busts of recent history.

Tommy Beer, HOOPSWORLD

I thought the biggest bust of last summer’s free agent class – accounting for the size of respective contracts – was Charlie Villanueva. Giving Charlie V $37.5 million, especially given the current state of the economy, was highly questionable. Look at the players who settled for the mid-level exception this past summer: Trevor Ariza, Ron Artest, Rasheed Wallace, etc. And the MLE starts at approximately $5.9 million. With that in mind, the Villanueva math just doesn’t add up. Is he really worth $7.5 million per season?

After being selected with the 7th overall pick in the 2005 draft, Villanueva was productive for stretches but has also been maddeningly inconsistent over his first four years in the league. Although he is a talented scorer, he has never been accused of being a spirited defender. However, last season he posted career-highs across the board – averaging 16.2 points and 6.7 rebounds in 27 minutes a game. But he also needed to take 14 shots a night to score those 16 points (He shot under 45% from the floor and got to the line just over three times per contest). And Villanueva’s occasionally lackadaisical play has drawn the ire of past coaches and landed him in a doghouse or two. Moreover, although it was mostly because they were looking to shed salary, it should be noted that Milwaukee chose to not make him a qualifying offer prior to the start of free agency.

All things considered, this was a very questionable decision by Dumars, who will have to rely heavily on Charlie V. to develop into a full-time starter and consistent contributor if he is going to earn his hefty paycheck.

Ryan Lester, Lester’s Legends

The biggest bust of last summer’s free-agent class is Ben Gordon. He signed a five-year $55 million contract to give the Pistons a scoring punch. The Pistons were 28th in the league with 94.2 ppg last year.

Gordon posted averages of 21.4, 18.6, and 20.7 of the Bulls the past three years. Logic would say adding a score of his magnitude would improve your offensive output. Unfortunately the Pistons slipped to 29th in the league with 92.4 ppg (as of March 1st).

Gordon has missed 19 games and is averaging a career low 14.3 points. Not only that, his field goal percentage, free throw percentage, steals, and assists are down. His three-pointers made, three-point percentage, and rebounds are also career lows.

So how is he going to turn things around next year? Getting healthy would help. Of course, that’s not really something a player can control. Gordon just needs to finish this year on a high note. Build some momentum and confidence. If he has something positive to focus on during the long offseason, it should help him prepare.

Also, having Rip Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince healthy would help Gordon figure out his role. It’s hard, especially when you go to a new team, to really lock in when you don’t get to practice and play with your top guys for an extended period.

I do think Gordon will be better. He’s too good of a scorer not to.

Previous Roudtable Discussions:
- Change is a Good Thing in Fantasy Hoops
- Where will LeBron, Wade, and Bosh Play Next Season?
- Which NBA Team is the Least Fantasy Friendly?
- Iverson or McGrady in Fantasy Hoops?

Charlie Villanueva Photo Credit: Icon SMI

Friday’s Boxscore Breakfast, Starring Jason Kidd’s Night For the Ages

ETB Contributor — Fri, 05 Mar 2010 15:29:58 +0000

Chris Paul & Josh Smith Photo Credit: Icon SMI

By: Zachariah Blott

Jason Kidd and Josh Smith have a historically monstrous night: Fans at last Friday’s OT showdown between the Hawks and Mavericks were treated to a rare triple-15, a near quadruple-double, and one of the oddest plays in NBA history. First, 36-year-old Jason Kidd earned his 104th career triple-double, putting up 19 points, 17 assists, and 16 rebounds. This is the first 15-15-15 game since 1996, when a 22-year-old Kidd pulled the trick in a win over the Clippers. Not only was Kidd’s stat line magical, but his final 5 minutes of regulation were outright ridiculous.

With the Mavs losing by as much as 13 in the fourth quarter, Kidd owned the last 4:53 of regulation, registering 9 points, 4 rebounds, and 3 assists over that stretch to force overtime. The true craziness came with 1:37 left, when Kidd ran full speed into Atlanta coach Mike Woodson, who was standing a step or two out on the court directing his team’s defense. Even though they’re not allowed to be there, we see coaches on the court all the time, but Kidd saw an opportunity in this never-paid-attention-to situation, and ran into Woodson, forcing the refs to call a technical foul. The coach tried to avoid Kidd at the last second, but to no avail. Watch for yourself.

Lost in the Mavericks’ spirited comeback/overtime victory, Kidd’s triple-double, and this zany play, was the performance put on by the Hawks’ Josh Smith. The multi-talented forward nearly had the fifth quadruple-double in NBA history. Smith filled the stat sheet to the tune of 18 points, 11 rebounds, 8 assists, and 7 steals in the loss. David Robinson was the last player to accomplish the feat, doing so back in 1994.

Sacramento and Houston clash with familiar faces: A few weeks after the trade deadline, Sacramento and Houston squared off with PF Carl Landry and SG Kevin Martin playing significant roles for their new teams in an 84-81 victory for the Kings. Landry continued his solid contributions for Sac-town, scoring 22 points (7-13 shooting) and grabbing 10 rebounds (5 offensive), along with 2 steals, 1 block, and going 8-8 from the free throw line. Martin had 14 points, but he was only 3-13 from the field, and he turned the ball over 4 times. His poor defense and shot selection have predictably continued for Houston, who are 2-5 since his arrival, sliding quickly into next-year mode.

Orlando out-rebounds Golden State by 100%: I understand that a team with Dwight Howard will out-rebound opponents quite often. But what happened to the Warriors on Wednesday was inexcusable. The Magic doubled them up, 58 rebounds to 29. The following Orlando players had as many or more rebounds than Golden State’s leader that night: Howard (12), Matt Barnes (7), reserve Marcin Gortat (8), reserve Brandon Bass (7), and 6-0 point guard Jameer Nelson (6). In the Warriors’ defense, they are currently contending with innumerable injuries and Don Nelson’s leadership.

Zachariah Blott cannot recommend Rick Telander’s “Heaven Is A Playground” enough.

Is There Anything Bill Walker Can’t Do?

Brian Spencer — Thu, 04 Mar 2010 17:19:50 +0000

By Brian Spencer

Well done, Bill Walker.

I’m not sure how much longer this can last; it could end as soon as Wilson Chandler returns to the Knicks and to the starting lineup. Regardless, it’s a good feeling to see a kid like Walker, graced with so much natural talent, but along with it, balky knees which threaten to derail his NBA career before it begins in earnest, finally getting the chance to prove he belongs at this level.

Friend of mine, one of a million wayward Knicks fans desperately trying to maintain optimism for a brighter future, came through with last-minute tickets to Wednesday night’s game at the Garden between the Knicks and my (embarassingly pattycake) Pistons. While my last visit to MSG was all about Tracy McGrady, this night belonged to Walker, the second-year swingman from Kansas State acquired mostly as a throw-in in the trade-deadline deal that sent Nate Robinson to Boston.

With Chandler again out for personal reasons, the 6-6 Walker was announced as the starting point guard, partially due to his strong individual performance on Monday in a blowout loss to the Cavaliers (9-14 FG for 21 points, including 2 triples, along with 5 boards, 1 assist, 1 steal, and 1 block), and partially because Chris Duhon and Sergio Rodriguez, the Knicks’ only true PGs on the roster, are awful.

He didn’t disappoint, taking advantage of a disinterested Detroit defense early by running the floor and slashing to the hole for easy layups and a few dunks that got the mostly dispassionate fans riled up and out of their seats. Dunks like this:

He logged a career-high 36:27 minutes, going 9-13 from the field en route to 22 points, 3 assists, 2 rebounds, and a steal. He played with passion, something we don’t get nearly enough of at the Garden, and he played like a guy trying to earn a contract… and he is, with the Knicks’ holding bargain-basement team options on Walker for the next two seasons ($854k and $916k, respectively).

There’s no question Walker has NBA talent: as Michael Beasley’s running mate in Kansas State, he was named to the All-Big 12 Third Team as a redshirt freshman in 2008, averaging 16.1 points, 6.3 boards, 1.9 assists. He declared for the draft early, and likely would have been a late-lottery pick if not for blowing out his knee during a predraft workout—his third major knee injury since ’03. That dropped him all the way down to the middle of the second round, where he was taken by the Washington Wizards and flipped to the Celtics.

Since then, it’d been nothing but spare, mostly meaningless minutes with the Celtics sandwiched between stints in the D-League, but now… eh, I don’t want to jinx him. Let’s just say this is the time of the season when young players on teams going nowhere often get extended auditions for next year, and for Walker it’s been so far, so good. Don’t forget this team technically has just three players under contract next year (Gallinari, Chandler, and Toney Douglas)… four if you include Eddy “Fat” Curry’s fat $11.2 million player option, one I’m sure he has no intention of exercising.

“Is there anything Bill Walker can’t do?” The first time my friend said it, it was jokingly, but the second time, after a fantastic pass to David Lee for a layup, there was some sincerity to it. Two games make not a career, but for a few nights, at least, Walker has turned the heads of those disillusioned Knicks fans grasping for something, anything, to get excited about.

Keep it up, Bill, and take care of those knees.

Bill Walker Photo Credit: Icon SMI

Fast Team, Slow Pace; Slow Team, Fast Pace

ETB Contributor — Thu, 04 Mar 2010 06:01:25 +0000

By: Zachariah Blott

Quick, name the most exciting team in the NBA. There’s a good chance you said Phoenix or Golden State, two teams that live and die by the fast break. Who doesn’t love to watch Steve Nash effortlessly tossing up a one-handed oop to Amar’e Stoudemire two seconds after a defensive rebound? Who isn’t amazed when Monta Ellis shoots out of a cannon past everyone to embarrass other supposedly fast athletes?

Predictably, both the Suns and Warriors rank near the top of the league in pace (possessions per game) and fast break points. Most teams that play at a fast pace average a lot of fast break points, and vice versa. This makes sense. There are a handful of teams, however, that play by a different set of rules. Some clubs don’t have a high number of possessions, but they still end up with 15 or more fast break points. Other teams keep the game moving, but rarely bring the fans to their feet with a breakaway slam.

Below are four teams that possess this dichotomy: two with a fast pace but low volume of fast break points, and two with a slow place but healthy fast break numbers. Let’s take a look at how each of these clubs ended up in the odd statistical situation they’re in.

Pick Their Spots Well

Atlanta Hawks

Pace: 90.6 (26th)

Fast Break Points per: 16.6 (4th)

One of the keys to a strong fast-breaking team is a 3, 4, or 5 who can motor down the court faster than the other team’s bigs in order to throw down a dunk over the little guards who flew back first. The Hawks are more than competent in this department with PF Josh Smith, who can often beat opponents’ guards down the floor. Throw in F Marvin Williams and 6-7 Joe Johnson, who both have the athleticism and mindset to complete the occasional breakaway, and Atlanta has enough big guys to run an efficient fast-break offense.

Why don’t the Hawks get out and run more often? Their defense isn’t particularly good at making the other team miss shots (which can often lead to easy sprint out opportunities), and they aren’t a good rebounding club. On top of that, they average 7.4 steals per, which is in line with the league average. In short, they just don’t create that many chances for themselves. But when they do force a turnover or they do snare a long defensive rebound, watch out.

Philadelphia 76ers

Pace: 91.7 (21st)

Fast Break Points per: 18.8 (2nd)

The Sixers don’t get a lot of opportunities to run it out for a few reasons. First, their defense doesn’t force a lot of misses or turnovers, the two easiest ways to start the fast break. Second, they made the slow-footed Elton Brand an important piece of their team. You need big men who can run to make a consistently decent, fast-breaking squad, and Brand has never been that guy. Last but not least, Coach Eddie Jordan and GM Ed Stefanski have no clue about the game of basketball. Previous GM Billy King left them a core of players ready and able to run the court for easy dunks (Andre Iguodala, Thaddeus Young, Samuel Dalembert, Marreese Speights), but the new brain trust had different ideas.

Jordan should know better. He inherited a very slow Washington squad from Doug Collins back in 2003 and made them into one of the fastest teams in the league, finishing in the top-10 in Pace for the next four seasons. Granted, the Wizards didn’t win any more often than they had been, but Jordan knows how to make a team move. Now he has a group of guys who are far more suited to that style of play, and he decides it’s time to run the Princeton offense in earnest. If he ever realizes his bigs are skinny and fast and shouldn’t be standing around in the half-court, this Philly club could actually be good. Thankfully most of the players recognize what they have and absolutely take off when they have the chance.

Two teams who push the pace but refuse to score fast, after the jump …

Hurry Up and Wait

New York Knicks

Pace: 94.0 (7th)

Fast Break Points per: 9.9 (28th)

We all know why they play fast: Mike D’Antoni. He’s not quite Paul Westhead, but he loves coaching 94 feet of track. So there should be no confusion why they play at such a fast pace; they run…a lot (Remember “Seven Seconds or Less”?) The problem arises when you look at their roster.

Who on New York is particularly fast for their position? There are plenty of guys who hustle (“C” David Lee, SF Danilo Gallinari) and guys who are decent athletes (forwards Wilson Chandler and Al Harrington), but absolutely no one strikes you as being built for the fast break. Also, they are poor rebounders and don’t get steals at an above-average rate, so they’re often forcing themselves to run in situations that aren’t prime. Frankly, D’Antoni’s system doesn’t fit this squad. Now if only he and Jordan would switch places …

Los Angeles Lakers

Pace: 93.6 (9th)

Fast Break Points per: 11.8 (26th)

The Lakers just aren’t built to get easy buckets in transition. Their fastest big man is probably Lamar Odom, and that’s not saying much. On top of that, PG Derek Fisher is slowing down with age and Kobe Bryant is more first-step quick than down-the-court fast. Their most efficient scorers are their plodding group of big men: Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum, Odom, and Ron Artest lead the Lakers (of those who average over 20 minutes per) in eFG%.

So why do they play so fast? Their defense forces bad shots and grabs a lot of rebounds. This provides the opportunity. And unlike LeBron, Kobe won’t hang out on the perimeter dribbling for 15 seconds before hoisting a fade-away 3. If he sees a shot he likes (which is often), he pulls up and takes it. Sometimes he drives and finds an open Fisher or Artest, who also aren’t shy about pulling the trigger. When the ball goes inside, it’s normally for a quick move and a shot – no Charles Barkley backdowns for this frontcourt. As it turns out, Los Angeles really doesn’t run that much; they just don’t pussyfoot around with the ball.

Zachariah Blott cannot recommend Rick Telander’s “Heaven Is A Playground” enough.

Stephen Curry is Silencing the Doubters

Andrew Thell — Tue, 02 Mar 2010 05:01:03 +0000

Stephen Curry Photo Credit: Getty Images

By Andrew Thell

Back in June of last year every player outside of Blake Griffin was subject to the typical pre-draft chatter. Was Brandon Jennings’ head screwed on straight and was he anywhere near NBA ready? Is Jordan Hill anything more than another NBA bust tweener? Could DeMar DeRozan develop the ball skills and shooting range to complement his athleticism? How many years away from NBA caliber defense is Hasheem Thabeet? Is Jonny Flynn big enough for the League? Can DeJuan Blair’s knees hold up and is he big enough to play in the paint? Wherever Ricky Rubio lands, will he agree to play there? Has James Harden already reached his ceiling?

There’s a long ways to go before we can answer most of these, but one of the biggest draft-day questions from last summer is being definitively answered of late: Does Stephen Curry have the size to play the two or the ball skills to play the one at the next level? The answer is, both questions are moot. Forget traditional roles, the kid is a basketball player and a damn good one.

I’ll admit, I wasn’t high on Curry coming into the draft myself. Sure, he was the most explosive scorer in college, but I saw a guy who was going to get manhandled by bigger, stronger, faster and more athletic ones and twos at the next level. It’s happened countless times before and I wasn’t the only one who had those reservations. But those doubts allowed Curry to slip to the seventh spot in the draft, and it couldn’t have worked out better for him. He ended up playing on a team in Golden State and in a free-slowing offensive system that highlights his skills. Don Nelson is notorious for marginalizing young talent and preferring to run with veteran players he trusts, to the detriment of youngster’s development, but to his credit Nelson saw something special in Curry out of the gate and installed him into the starting lineup on opening night. And as injuries have ravaged the Warriors, Curry has become their one constant – he’s become their best player.

What Curry lacks in athleticism he makes up for in creativity, playmaking instincts and a savvy that we usually only see in players several years his senior. Curry plays the game with a sense of calm, flow and purpose like few kids I’ve seen. He’s got a quiet swagger about him, effortlessly slowing or pushing the pace while both asserting his offense and creating for others. He seems as comfortable bringing the ball up the floor as he does moving without it, making heady decisions in both capacities, and good things happen as a result. In Don Nelson’s up-tempo system Curry thrives on the ambiguity of his role, he knows he just needs to go out there and play basketball regardless of if he’s manning the point or off-guard slot, and as he’s settled into that dual role over the course of the season the confidence Nelson has shown the young man is manifesting in monster stat lines.

While the rookie has been starting since day one, it understandably took a while to get into the flow not just at the NBA level but on a team with an unorthodox system and with a prolific scorer like Monta Ellis dominating the ball. Curry had a modest November, putting up 9.8 points on 42% from the field, but he was already displaying better passing skills and instincts than most expected with 5.3 assists in just 29 minutes a contest. It’s been all uphill from there though. In the month of February Mr. Curry is putting up an eye-opening 21.5 points, 5.3 boards, 7.3 assists, 1.6 steals and 2.1 triples while shooting 47% from the field and 90% from the line. Curry has been even hotter since the All Star break, dropping 22-7-8. Forget rookies, there are only a handful of players in the NBA who can match that line.

Despite the sluggish start, Curry is currently fifth in the NBA in total steals, 15th in assists, ninth in FT% and he hasn’t missed a single game. The kid isn’t just a bomber. When you produce like that, questions about size and versatility quickly fade.

Despite the fact that Golden State has produced more wins than only the pitiful Timberwolves and Nets franchises this year, the Warriors are currently 12th in the NBA in attendance. There’s a reason for that, and it’s not just Don Nelson’s bizarre rotations and offensive wizardry. The Warriors backcourt features some of the most intriguing, most fun to watch young talent in the league. Just a few months into his young NBA career, the 7th overall pick in the draft is already the kind of talent who can single-handedly make an NBA game fun to watch. Forget athleticism or size or defined role, we’re already seeing this kid is an intelligent basketball player and an electric talent – I can think of a few teams who are kicking themselves for dwelling on anything else on draft day.

Friday’s Box Score Breakfast, Featuring Another Rookie Triple-Doubling

ETB Contributor — Fri, 26 Feb 2010 15:57:36 +0000

By: Zachariah Blott

Darren Collison earns second triple-double for class of 2009: In a 107-101 victory over the Pacers last Friday, the Hornets’ rookie point guard went for 18 points, 12 assists, and 13 rebounds. This marks the the second triple-double of the season by a rookie (the only other being Stephen Curry’s 36-10-13 line from February 10th, unless you count DeJuan Blair’s effort on January 13th: 28 points, 10 offensive rebounds, and 11 defensive rebounds). As a starter during Chris Paul’s multiple absences, Collison is averaging 18 points, 8 assists, and 4 rebounds per.

Milwaukee’s Brandon Jennings nearly did it on opening night with 17, 9, and 9. Sacramento’s Tyreke Evans has gotten close a few times and seemed to have the size, skillset, and opportunity to achieve the feat first. Congratulations Mr. Collison. Not too shabby for being the 10th PG selected in last summer’s draft, especially compared to this guy.

Remember the Sixers’ real point guard? Louis Williams, Philadelphia’s odd-man-out during the Allen Iverson fiasco (I believe this officially marks the third one in the last 12 months), was back in the starting lineup on Tuesday and Wednesday. In two road games, he averaged 23 points, 5 assists, and 7 rebounds per, along with 56% from the field (14-25) and 54% from deep (7-13). I know GM Ed Stefanski and Coach Eddie Jordan aren’t getting into Mensa any time soon, but Williams should never have been sitting behind the perpetual freak show and a rookie who is neither a good distributor or scorer.

Josh Smith blocks shots, forgets about cleaning the glass: Atlanta PF Josh Smith has a bit of reputation for lacking consistency and going for big plays instead of simple, helpful ones. Exhibit A is the Hawks’ February 19 loss in Phoenix. While Smith was able to dazzle with 4 blocks, he only grabbed 3 defensive rebounds (the easy ones), and 5 total. The Suns outboarded the Hawks 50-36.

Zachariah Blott cannot recommend Rick Telander’s “Heaven Is A Playground” enough.

Louis Williams Photo Credit: Icon SMI

Ivan Drago Can Sing and Dance, Too

Brian Spencer — Thu, 25 Feb 2010 19:58:51 +0000

Dolph Lundgren: the performer who puts all other performers to shame. To Russia!