Oil Peak

Toyota will build the first megawatt-scale hydrogen fuel and renewable generation plant

noreply@blogger.com (astalavista) — Tue, 05 Dec 2017 06:40:00 +0000

Toyota will build the first megawatt-scale hydrogen fuel and renewable generation plant, setting a new energy benchmark that experts hope with pave the way for Australia's hydrogen industry.

Toyota North America will build the plant to support its operations at the Port of Long Beach, in the US, using agricultural waste to generate electricity, water and hydrogen.

By 2030, between 10 million and 15 million cars and half a million trucks will be hydrogen-powered globally. Photo: Peter DaSilva

Dubbed the Tri-Gen facility, the plant will generate around 2.35 megawatts of electricity and close to one tonne of hydrogen per day, providing enough daily power for more than 2300 homes and 1500 hydrogen-powered cars.

It will come online in 2020, and be used as proof of concept for large-scale hydrogen generation and renewable energy plants.

"Tri-Gen is a major step forward for sustainable mobility and a key accomplishment of our 2050 Environmental Challenge to achieve net zero CO₂ emissions from our operations," Toyota North American group vice-president for strategic planning, Doug Murtha, said.

CSIRO principal research scientist Michael Dolan told Fairfax Media this plant was a benchmark for the industry.

"Once someone goes first it paves the way for others, and hopefully this is something Australia can learn from," Mr Dolan said.

The CSIRO recently announced its intention to make Australia a hydrogen fuel world leader, investing millions into research using renewable energy such as solar, instead of biowaste, to generate hydrogen.

CSIRO energy director Karl Rodrigues told Fairfax Media the research would put the nation first in the region.

"This is a great opportunity to take a global leadership position," Dr Rodrigues said.

Australian National University associate professor Ron Pace said Australia was making strides forward with hydrogen fuel technology.

He said a group from ANU and the University of Wollongong was creating a "completely novel" process based on nature to generate hydrogen and water.

"We hope to see it start to emerge next year," Dr Pace said.

South Australia has also put hydrogen forward as a pillar of its new energy plan.

"Hydrogen offers an opportunity to create a new industry in South Australia where we can export our sun and wind resources to the world," South Australian Energy Minister Tom Koutsantonis said.

"Our Hydrogen Roadmap aims to have South Australia at the forefront of hydrogen development in this region within the next decade," he said.

"Within two years, commuters in Adelaide will be able to ride on the first of a fleet of hydrogen-powered buses using locally produced fuel. Within three years, South Australia will have the capacity to export its first hydrogen supplies produced using our renewable energy assets."

A recent industrial roadmap developed by the Hydrogen Council – a consortium comprising nearly 30 industrial, energy and automotive companies – found that by 2030, between 10 million and 15 million cars and half a million trucks will be hydrogen-powered globally.

It forecasts annual hydrogen demand to reach almost 80 exajoules (80,000 petajoules) in 2050, accounting for 18 per cent of total final energy demand under the Paris Agreement plan.

The consumption of energy in the United States has also changed since 1908

noreply@blogger.com (astalavista) — Thu, 23 Mar 2017 10:19:00 +0000

The consumption of energy in the United States has also changed significantly over the past hundred years. In 1908, the country consumed just 15 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu), of which three-quarters was coal. By the time the Cubs made their last World Series appearance, total energy consumption in the country had doubled. Coal was still the main fuel, but petroleum had also become a large source of energy consumption.

Energy Consumption in US

In comparison, the last time the Indians appeared in the World Series (1997), U.S. energy consumption had increased to totals closer to those seen today. Consumption in 1997 totaled 94 quadrillion Btu. Coal’s share had fallen to one-quarter of total consumption, and natural gas and nuclear made up a large share. Since then, the shares of natural gas and other renewables used to generate electricity have increased, resulting in a lower share of coal generation.

The share of nonhydro renewable consumption is actually lower today (10%) than it was in 1908 (15%). This is a factor of both lower energy consumption as a whole and a large amount of biomass (in this case wood) consumption 100 years ago. Today, while the nonhydro renewable share of total energy consumption is lower than in 1908, solar and wind generation continue to increase and make up a large percentage of total nonhydro renewables.

Despite the changes in fuel sources, fossil fuels have continued to make up a large percentage of U.S. energy consumption. In 1908, fossil fuels accounted for 85% of total consumption. When the Indians won the World Series in 1948, that share had increased to 91%, as petroleum and natural gas had begun to account for increasing amounts of energy consumption. Fossil fuel consumption has fallen in recent years, accounting for 81% of total consumption in 2015.

US Oil Rig Count is up 63.47% from one year ago

noreply@blogger.com (astalavista) — Mon, 20 Mar 2017 21:17:00 +0000

US Oil Rig Count is at a current level of 631.00, from last week and up from 386.00 one year ago. This is a change of 14 from last week and 63.47% from one year ago.

Oil fell below $ 53 with worries of "supply"

noreply@blogger.com (astalavista) — Wed, 08 Mar 2017 08:11:00 +0000

Petrol fell below $ 53 with "supply" concerns Oil prices fell below $ 53 with a rise in US private-sector stocks. Oil prices have fallen below $ 53 a barrel after showing that the private sector in the US has increased its oil inventories and that the already high levels of total inventories have risen even more.

Forward Oil contracts grew 0.7 percent in New York, after dropping 0.1 percent on Tuesday. Oil inventories increased by 11.6 million barrels last week, according to the private sector funded American Petroleum Institute. It is expected that official Petroleum stock data to be announced on Wednesday will show that the increase is moving in the ninth week. Saudi Arabia's energy minister said that inventories are expected to slow down considerably and that the decision on the prolongation of OPEC's contract of production quota will be taken when the ministers meet in May.

Oil prices have surpassed more than $ 50 per barrel as the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other producer countries began reducing output from 1 Jct to offset the global supply surplus. Saudi Arabia and Russia, the architects of the agreement on supply, sought a united front on Tuesday to reconcile a conference in Houston with Iraqi and Mexican officials continuing their insistent stance that restrictions are underway.

Jonathan Barratt, chief investment officer at Ayers Alliance Securities in Sydney, said: "Oil is stuck in a comfortable band between $ 50 and $ 55," he said, adding that OPEC would probably not extend the duration of production shortages if prices do not fall below $ 50.

The April-term West Texas Oil (WTI) price dropped 52 cents to 52.80 dollars at 10:48 pm with Hong Kong time, down 39 cents from the Nymex to 52.75 dollars per barrel. Total transaction volume was 58 percent below the 100 day average. The contract fell by 6 cents on Tuesday and closed at 53.14.

May-term Brent Oil plunged 35 cents, or 0.6 per cent, in London-based ICE Futures Europe to 55.57 dollars per barrel. The prices fell by 9 cents on Tuesday to close at 55.92. The global benchmark Brent Oil was trading at a premium of $ 2.30 in relation to the May term WTI.

Opec will raise output capacity by 1.95 million barrels a day from 2016 to 2022

noreply@blogger.com (astalavista) — Tue, 07 Mar 2017 09:27:00 +0000

OPEC will increase its production capacity by about twice as much as previously thought, led by expansion in Iran and Iraq, the International Energy Agency said.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will raise output capacity by 1.95 million barrels a day from 2016 to 2022, with a third of the gains concentrated in Iraq, the IEA said. Last year the Paris-based agency predicted growth of 800,000 barrels a day from 2015 to 2021.

While OPEC is leading an effort by global producers to clear a glut this year by reducing output, the organization is getting ready to meet rising demand in coming years. Iraq is rehabilitating its oil industry after years of conflict, while neighboring Iran is seeking foreign investors after the lifting of nuclear-related sanctions.

Opec Output capacity in 2022

“The group is building capacity even as it reduces in 2017, in anticipation of higher demand,” said the IEA, which advises most of the world’s biggest economies on energy policy. “Capacity growth is concentrated in the low-cost Middle East, with Iraq leading the gains.”

Iraq will retain its position as OPEC’s second-biggest producer, adding 700,000 barrels a day to reach 5.4 million a day in 2022, according to the IEA, which last year saw the nation hitting 4.6 million by 2021. Most of the increase will come from oil fields in the south of the country, such as the Majnoon project operated by Royal Dutch Shell Plc.

Iran will expand capacity by 400,000 barrels a day to reach 4.15 million in 2022, according to the agency, which said the forecast hinges on whether the accord to lift international sanctions remains in place. Having been released last year from trade restrictions, the country has introduced a new contract model to attract foreign investors.

See also: Iran’s key to growth will be attracting investment to energy industry

With supplies from outside OPEC also projected to rebound sharply next year, it’s unclear whether there’ll be enough demand to immediately absorb extra crude from OPEC.

Demand for the group’s output will be at 33 million barrels a day in 2018, roughly in line with the amount it pumped before cutting production. Even if Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s biggest member, continues its policy of holding back some output for emergency use, the IEA’s data point to considerable excess capacity next year.

Whether or not the group chooses to prolong the current agreement on output limits, “it is difficult to imagine a return to the unbridled production that sent prices crashing to their lowest in more than a decade,” the agency said.

Germany's coal imports expected to fall in 2016

noreply@blogger.com (astalavista) — Mon, 08 Aug 2016 08:40:00 +0000

Germany will likely import the same amount of hard coal in 2016 as last year, lobby group VDKi said on Thursday, citing rising demand from steelmakers but lower usage in power stations due to rival renewable energy.

Coal is still the backbone of power generation in Europe’s biggest economy, which is seeking to move away from nuclear and fossil power to renewable energy. Two thirds of German coal imports go to power utilities, just under a third to the steel sector, and the remainder to heating providers.

“Imports so far this year are still weak because weather patterns have driven higher renewable generation, but steelmakers are seeing a recovery to normal production levels after a trough,” VDKi’s managing director Franz-Josef Wodopia told a news conference.

germany gross electricity generation by source

“We expect stagnant coal imports for the full year.”

German imports monitored by VDKi’s 70 member companies in 2015 rose to 57.5 million tonnes, up 2.3 percent from 2014, as coal’s relatively low price vis-a-vis gas, due to an industry downturn, raised its uses in the electricity sector.

Germany used hard coal for 18 percent of its 2015 electricity generation, of which 90 percent was imported, while 25 percent of power generation came from domestic brown coal.

Turning to 2016, VDKi chairman Wolfgang Cieslik said that steel manufacturers had reported a 4-percent gain in year-on-year output in May after six months of lower production.

“This shows first signs of a stabilisation,” he said.

But coal-to-power plants struggle increasingly against competition from renewables, which are given priority access to power grids, he said.

Around 30 percent of power already comes from energy that is subsidised at fixed tariffs, although latest reforms will usher in an auction-based system to create market-based prices as from next year.

Still, as a result of the old system an increasing number of coal-fired plants cannot produce at full stretch and keep losing market share.

Germany has legislated to become virtually carbon-free by 2050, through a steady replacement of thermal power with that from wind and solar energy.

Cieslik said that more coal plant closures were on their way, reducing VDKi’s customer base.

Power network operators calculate that by 2030, German hard coal-to-power station capacity will fall by between 12 and 52 percent from 2014’s 26 gigawatt (GW) level, to 11-23 GW.

Germany’s top coal suppliers are Russia, Colombia, the United States and Australia

Employment in oil and natural gas extraction and support activities continued declining

noreply@blogger.com (astalavista) — Sat, 06 Aug 2016 10:41:00 +0000

Monthly oil and natural gas rig count and brent price

Despite increases in crude oil prices since the start of the year, employment in oil and natural gas extraction and support activities continued declining from levels reached in the fall of 2014, just before the onset of falling oil prices. The total rig count (including both oil-directed and natural gas-directed rigs) has declined even more sharply, from nearly 1,800 rigs in the fall of 2014 to a weekly low of 404 rigs in May 2016. Crude oil production has also declined, but to a much lesser extent than either employment or rig counts, while natural gas production has leveled off.

Employment in oil and natural gas production reached a high of 538,000 jobs in October 2014. Since then, oil and natural gas production employment declined 26%, a loss of more than 142,000 jobs through May 2016, based on the latest jobs data available. The total decrease in production jobs is nearly three times the 51,000 jobs lost over a 13-month period during the 2008–09 recession. Not all production jobs are directly related to drilling—the majority of the jobs are actually for extraction or support activities, which include the operations of drilled wells, exploration, excavation, well surveying, casing work, and well construction. This also includes the maintenance of already producing wells.

The effects of the reduction in drilling and employment in crude oil and natural gas production have been relatively modest, with production levels in May down 6% and 1%, respectively, relative to their level in May 2015. Compared to October 2014, the peak month for employment in the sector, May 2016 crude oil production was 2% lower, while natural gas production was flat.

The divergence between trends in rig counts and employment on the one hand and oil and the trends of natural gas production on the other are attributable to increases in production per new well in key regions, driven in part by advances in siting and drilling technology. For instance, new-well oil production per rig so far in 2016 has been more than twice its 2013 level in areas such as the Bakken, Eagle Ford, and Permian. Growing offshore crude oil production in the Gulf of Mexico has also helped to offset declines in Lower 48 onshore production.

Monthly U.S crude oil rig count and production

Monthly U.S natural rig count and production

North American electricity from renewable and nuclear will grow 45% in 2025.

noreply@blogger.com (astalavista) — Fri, 05 Aug 2016 14:44:00 +0000

North America electricity generation mix

Based on results from EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2016 (AEO2016) Reference case and International Energy Outlook 2016, EIA projects that the North American share of energy generation from renewable and nuclear energy sources will grow from 38% in 2015 to 45% in 2025. This projection assumes the Clean Power Plan (CPP) is upheld and takes effect in the United States. A recent agreement among Canada, Mexico, and the United States established a goal of 50% of electricity generation from clean energy sources by 2025.

The trilateral agreement goal includes nuclear, renewables, and energy efficiency as eligible sources of clean energy, but it does not specify a baseline for assessing energy efficiency, which has been improving over time. The EIA projections discussed here focus solely on electricity generation from nuclear and renewable sources as a share of total generation. Substantial increases in demand-side energy efficiency are included in EIA's projection for overall electricity demand, but explicit accounting of energy efficiency contributions are not projected. Moreover, these values reflect the Reference case projections; other assumptions for fuel prices, technology costs, and policies could affect the electricity generation mix.

Electricity generation in the United States currently represents more than 80% of total generation in North America. EIA's AEO2016 Reference case assumes that implentation of the CPP will begin in 2022. The extension of certain tax credits, significant cost reductions, and recognition of future CPP requirements result in a large increase in renewable generation between 2015 and 2025. U.S. coal-fired generation is expected to decline by 13% between 2015 and 2025 in the AEO Reference case, while natural gas-fired generation increases by 4%.

Germany eeg surcharge will rise to 7.1-7-3 cents in 2017

noreply@blogger.com (astalavista) — Tue, 02 Aug 2016 12:05:00 +0000

EEG surcharge rises 2017 about seven cents per kilowatt hour

The main cause decline in electricity prices on the stock market, for consumers, therefore, needs to change anything. This shows the EEG computer Agora energy revolution

Berlin, July 23, 2017. The allocation to the Renewable Energies Act ( EEG -Umlage) will rise to power calculations for Agora energy transition in 2017 to 7.1 to 7.3 cents per kilowatt hour.Currently stands at 6.35 cents. The essential information for current customers purchase costs for electricity sales hardly change: The sum of market price of electricity and EEG -Umlage is projected to continue to forecast just below 10 cents per kilowatt hour.

The reason for this lies in the many years declining market electricity prices. Because the EEG -Umlage compensates the difference between the market price of electricity and the feed- out, get the operator of wind, solar, biomass, hydropower and geothermal plants. So the price of electricity in the 1st half 2016 at an average of 2.5 cents per kilowatt hour, while he still was about 3.2 cents per kilowatt hour per year, 2015. "The cost of electricity consumers remain relatively constant when the power distributors expect honest and pass on their lower purchase prices," says Dr. Patrick Graichen, director of Agora energy transition. "At the same time, consumers get more green electricity for their money. We expect that the share of renewable energy in 2017 increased to more than 35 percent, this year it will probably be 34 percent. "In 2015, the share of renewables in was gross electricity consumption 32.6 percent.

The calculations were performed with the EEG made machines, the Agora energy revolution free on www.agora-energiewende.de offering. He is continuously developed by Öko-Institut and has been provided for the allocation forecast 2017 current scenarios for the development of electricity prices, electricity consumption and electricity production from renewable energy sources.

The world oil market March 2016

noreply@blogger.com (astalavista) — Tue, 15 Mar 2016 15:44:00 +0000

The world oil market is complex. Governments and private companies play various roles in moving oil from producers to consumers. Government-owned national oil companies (NOCs) control most of the world's proved oil reserves (75% in 2014) and oil production (58% in 2014). International oil companies (IOCs), which are often stockholder-owned corporations, make up the balance of global oil reserves and production. Proved oil reserves consist of the amount of oil in a given area, known with reasonable certainty, that current technology can recover cost effectively. Worldwide proved oil reserves in 2014 were almost 1.7 trillion barrels, and global oil production averaged roughly 93.2 million barrels a day.

World Proved Crude Oil Reserves

There are different types of oil companies

There are three types of companies that supply crude oil to the global market. Each type of company has different operational strategies and production-related goals:
International oil companies (IOCs): These companies, which include ExxonMobil, BP, and Royal Dutch Shell, are entirely investor owned and primarily seek to increase their shareholder value. As a result, IOCs tend to make investment decisions based on economic factors. These companies typically move quickly to develop and produce the oil resources available to them and sell their output in the global market. Although these producers are affected by the laws of the countries in which they produce oil, all decisions are ultimately made in the interest of the company and its shareholders, not in the interest of a government.
National oil companies (NOCs): These companies operate as an extension of a government or a government agency, and they include Saudi Aramco (Saudi Arabia), Pemex (Mexico), the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), and Petróleos de Venezuela S.A. (PdVSA). These companies support government programs financially and sometimes strategically. These companies often provide fuels to domestic consumers at a lower price than the fuels they provide to the international market. These companies do not always have the incentive, means, or intention to develop their reserves at the same pace as investor owned international oil companies. Because of the diverse objectives of their supporting governments, these NOCs pursue goals that are not necessarily market oriented. The goals of these companies often include employing citizens, furthering a government's domestic or foreign policies, generating long-term revenue to pay for government programs, and supplying inexpensive domestic energy. All NOCs belonging to members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) fall into this category.
NOCs with strategic and operational autonomy: The NOCs in this category function as corporate entities and do not operate as an extension of the government of their country. This category includes Petrobras (Brazil) and Statoil (Norway). These companies often balance profit-oriented concerns and the objectives of their country with the development of their corporate strategy. Although these companies are driven by commercial concerns, they may also take into account their nation's goals when making investment or other strategic decisions.

In 2014, 100 companies produced 82% of the world's oil. NOCs accounted for 58% of global oil production.

Share of world oil production by type of company

OPEC members seek to work together to influence world oil supplies

OPEC is a group that includes some of the world's most oil-rich countries (see OPEC member countries in the Did you know? box). Together, these countries controlled approximately 73% of the world's total proved oil reserves in 2014, and they produced 39% of the world's total oil supply that year. Each OPEC country has at least one NOC, but most also allow international oil companies to operate within their borders.

OPEC seeks to manage the oil production of its member countries by setting crude oil output targets for each member except for Iraq, for which there is no current target. The track record of compliance with OPEC quotas is mixed because production decisions are ultimately in the hands of the individual member countries.

In general, there are three main factors that determine OPEC's market power, or how effectively the organization can influence oil prices:
How unwilling or unable consumers are to move away from using oil
How competitive non-OPEC producers become as the price of oil increases
How efficiently OPEC producers can supply oil compared with non-OPEC producers

OPEC's oil exports represented about 56% of the total seaborne crude oil traded internationally in 2014, according to data from Lloyd's List Intelligence tanker tracking service. The difference between market demand and oil supplied by non-OPEC sources is often referred to as the call on OPEC. Saudi Arabia, the largest oil producer within OPEC and the world's largest oil exporter, historically has had the largest share of the world's spare production capacity. As a whole, OPEC maintains the world's entire spare capacity for oil production. It is generally not cost-effective for international oil companies to develop and maintain idle spare production capacity, because the IOC business model maximizes revenue by continuing to produce oil as long as the price of selling that commodity is higher than the cost of getting an additional barrel of oil to market.

world Oil Market Spare Capacity

EIA defines spare capacity as the volume of oil production that can be brought online within 30 days and sustained for at least 90 days. Spare capacity can also be thought of as the difference between a country's current oil production and its maximum oil production capacity. Should a supply disruption occur, oil producers can use spare capacity to moderate increases in world oil prices by boosting production to offset lost oil supplies.

Crescent Dunes Solar Energy begins producing electricity

noreply@blogger.com (astalavista) — Fri, 04 Mar 2016 08:32:00 +0000

CSP_Crescent-Dunes

Crescent Dunes Solar Energy, a 110 megawatt (MW) concentrating solar power (CSP) electricity plant, began full operation in February, according to its press release. Crescent Dunes uses an energy storage system that developers expect will be able to store enough thermal energy to generate electricity for up to 10 hours after sunset or on cloudy days when direct sunlight is unavailable.

Through December 2015, CSP made up 8% of total U.S. solar electric generating capacity, while utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) made up 53%, and distributed solar PV made up 38%. Solar thermal electricity power plants differ from PV technology, which uses solar cells to convert direct and diffuse sunlight directly into electricity. Solar thermal plants rely on direct sunlight to focus the sun's heat energy onto collectors. Most of the earlier utility-scale CSP projects use parabolic trough technology, where curved mirrors focus sunlight onto receiver tubes of water or some intermediary fluid. EIA data now show 1,777 MW of operating CSP capacity in three states: California, Arizona, and Nevada. Concentrated solar power technologies use mirrors that direct sunlight to heat an intermediary fluid, which then heats water into steam to drive a turbine. Crescent Dunes is the second CSP plant, after California's 400 MW Ivanpah plant, to use thousands of sun-tracking mirrors called heliostats to capture and focus sunlight onto a receiver in a tall central tower.

us cumulative total solar thermal electricity generation

Unlike most other CSP plants that use synthetic oil as the intermediary fluid, Crescent Dunes uses molten salt, which has more advantageous thermal properties. Liquid salt in a 640-foot central tower is heated by concentrated sunlight. When electricity is needed, the molten salt is pumped through a heat exchanger to turn water into steam that spins a turbine to generate electricity. Cooler salt flows back to a storage tank and the cycle repeats. Unlike the Ivanpah CSP plant, Crescent Dunes will not use natural gas as a secondary fuel. Crescent Dunes developers expect it to generate more than 500,000 megawatthours annually, equivalent to 1.3% of Nevada's 2015 utility scale net generation from all sources.

Large renewable projects like Crescent Dunes rely on many forms of financing. Developer and owner SolarReserve LLC received a $737 million loan guarantee from the U.S. Department of Energy. Ivanpah, the earlier power tower project, received $1.6 billion. Crescent Dunes is also eligible for the 30% federal investment tax credit. Two more CSP projects could come online by the end of 2017, but neither has received regulatory approval or begun construction.

Although individual CSP projects can be large, total installations of CSP systems have been small compared with PV systems, as 2,950 MW of utility-scale solar photovoltaic plants began operating in 2015 alone. Given its significant cost advantage, PV technology is expected to provide nearly all further growth in U.S. solar power in the foreseeable future.

Saudi Aramco sets March propane to $290/T, up $5 from the February Level

noreply@blogger.com (astalavista) — Mon, 29 Feb 2016 09:21:00 +0000

State-run Saudi Aramco has increased its March contract price for propane to $290 a tonne, up $5 from the February level, an industry source said on Monday. Butane prices for March 2016 were set to $320 a tonne, up $5 from February level of $315. The prices provide a benchmark against which Middle East sales of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) to Asia are priced. Following is a table of Saudi Aramco's contract prices of propane and butane per tonne in U.S. dollars.

Product March 2016 - February 2016 Change
Propane $290 $285 +5
Butane $320 $315 +5

Natural gas-fired power plants in Europe are earning money again.

noreply@blogger.com (astalavista) — Fri, 22 Jan 2016 14:15:00 +0000

Natural gas-fired power plants in Europe’s two biggest electricity users are earning utilities money again.

German gas-fired plant profitability at times of peak demand turned positive on Dec. 7, rising to the highest since February 2012 on Thursday, while gas units that generate around the clock in France have been profitable for seven weeks, the longest stretch in four years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That came after benchmark European gas prices fell 12 percent in 2016, extending last year’s 31 percent drop.

“More gas plants are in the money at current power and gas prices,” said Omar Ramdani, head of analysis at RheinEnergie Trading GmbH in Cologne. “If it pays off for a gas plant to produce several hours and not a whole day, it is looking positive right now.”

month-ahead German clean spark spread

While gas produces about half the emissions of coal when used to generate electricity, making it a greener option to back up intermittent wind and solar output, the fuel has struggled to compete against more profitable coal, forcing utilities from EON SE to Statkraft AS to close gas units. The price of the cleaner fuel in Europe will probably fall further as cold weather ends and oil’s slump feeds into long-term contracts, Societe Generale SA said last week.

“We’re now in a situation where the most efficient gas is replacing the least efficient coal plants,” Marcus Bokermann, director of market strategy at Vattenfall AB’s asset optimization and trading business, said Jan. 17. “There’s still a long way to go until least efficient gas pushes out most efficient coal but we have started. This has impact on overall emissions in Europe.”

The month-ahead German clean spark spread, a measure of gas plant profitability that takes account of fuel, power and emission costs, for the peak hours of 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. fell 3.5 percent to 6.07 euros ($6.58) a megawatt-hour on Friday, after reaching 8.45 euros on Thursday. In France, the measure for baseload plants that operate 24 hours a day rose to 5.72 euros a megawatt-hour on Friday.
Nuclear Competition

Engie SA doubled the output of four of its French gas-fired plants in 2015 from a year earlier, including a unit in Fos-sur-Mer brought back after being idled, Le Figaro reported Jan. 21. Gas prices are low enough that stations in France will compete with nuclear to provide the lowest cost generation, according to Bruno Brunetti, senior director of electricity at Pira Energy. France gets about 75 percent of its power from reactors.

“It is starting to be ugly as we head towards nuclear reactors ramping down in the short term” as gas gets cheaper, he said by phone from New York.

So far this winter, Europe’s gas consumption has been about 6 percent below normal, said Meredith Annex, an analyst for Bloomberg New Energy Finance in London. Rising spark spreads may change that, she said.

“If there’s a driver for gas demand in Europe, it will come from the power market,” Klaus Schaefer, chief executive officer of EON SE’s Uniper unit, said Jan. 20.

Oil Prices Fall Below $30 a Barrel

noreply@blogger.com (astalavista) — Mon, 18 Jan 2016 09:02:00 +0000

Oil resumed its seemingly inexorable slide on Friday with prices on both sides of the Atlantic slipping below $30 a barrel as investors braced for the full return of Iranian barrels to the market.

Amid expectations that sanctions linked to Iran’s nuclear programme could be lifted as soon as this weekend, Brent, the international oil marker, dropped $1.40, or more than 4.5 per cent, to a fresh 12-year low of $29.46 barrel.

Although Iranian officials had signalled towards the end of 2015 that sanctions could be lifted as early as January, oil market observers and western diplomats had said it would take months longer.Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate, the US oil benchmark, fell $1.77 — almost 6 per cent — to $29.41. Both prices rallied on Thursday as speculators betting against oil closed some of their positions. Brent has had one of its worst starts to a year on record, falling 21 per cent.

“Signals now point to Iran reaching ‘Implementation Day’ at least two to four months sooner than we and the market initially expected,” said analysts at Barclays in a report.

Iran claims it will be able to increase production by 500,000 barrels a day immediately after the lifting of sanctions and within seven months reach its pre-sanctions level of at least 3.4m b/d.

While oil analysts believe these targets are hugely ambitious, any extra Iranian barrels hitting the market will add to a global supply glut that has pushed prices down more than 70 per cent since mid-2014. It could also delay the rebalancing of the market.

“Global macroeconomic concerns are mounting . . . Opec supplies are rising . . . and non-Opec supply is not adjusting fast enough, meaning that there is still further downside risk to prices this quarter,” the Barclays analysts said.

Demand was one of the few positives in the oil market last year as motorists enjoyed the benefit of lower prices at the pump. It is also one of the factors Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies in Opec are banking on to rebalance a market that is oversupplied by at least 1m barrels day. The other is slowing output from high-cost suppliers such as US shale companies.In recent weeks further signs of a slowdown in China, whose growth led the rise in global oil demand over the past decade, have added fears of slowing consumption to massive oversupply.

On Friday BHP Billiton, the world’s biggest resources company, wrote down the value of its US shale assets by $7.2bn and placed its development plans on hold.

The extent of the oil market glut was also highlighted on Friday by Euronav, a leading operator of very large crude carriers (VLCC). These are vessels that are capable of hauling more than 2m barrels of crude around the world.“Oil and gas markets have been significantly weaker than the industry expected,” said BHP chief executive Andrew Mackenzie. “We responded quickly by dramatically cutting our operating and capital costs, and reducing the number of operated rigs in the onshore US business from 26 a year ago to five by the end of the current quarter.”

The company and its rivals have enjoyed a sharp increase in rates as producing countries have been forced to ship their crude longer distances to find customers.

Euronav said charter rates for VLCCs had averaged $62,000 a day in the fourth quarter, more than double the level of a year ago.

“Demand has been and continues to be solid,” the company said. “Vessel supply remains moderate with only a handful of confirmed additional newbuilding orders placed since the end of the third quarter 2015 and for delivery scheduled in 2018.”

Saudi Aramco sets November propane to $395/T, up $35 from the October Level

noreply@blogger.com (astalavista) — Tue, 03 Nov 2015 06:42:00 +0000

State-run Saudi Aramco has increased its November contract price for propane to $395 a tonne, up $35 from the October level, an industry source said on Monday. Butane prices for November 2015 were set to $435 a tonne, up $70 from October level of $365. The prices provide a benchmark against which Middle East sales of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) to Asia are priced. Following is a table of Saudi Aramco's contract prices of propane and butane per tonne in U.S. dollars.

Product November 2015 - October 2015 Change
Propane $395 $360 +35
Butane $435 $365 +70

Japan started pre-operational inspections for Takahama 4 nuclear power plant.

noreply@blogger.com (astalavista) — Mon, 26 Oct 2015 06:18:00 +0000

Japan’s Nuclear Regulation Authority is to begin pre-operational inspections Oct. 21 for Kansai Electric Power Co.’s Takahama 4 nuclear power plant. The inspections are the final regulatory requirement to be met prior to restart. The inspections for sister plant Takahama 3 began Aug. 17. However, Takahama 3 and 4 are the subject of a court injunction against their restart, an appeal of which will be heard at a Nov. 14 hearing at Nagoya High Court.

Of Japan’s 43 operable reactors, 21 are undergoing NRA safety reviews. Kansai EPC President Makoto Yagi is scheduled to meet NRA commissioners Oct. 27 to discuss which of the company’s seven reactors for which it has applied for safety reviews should be prioritized.

Meanwhile, Kyushu EPC’s Sendai 2, which restarted last week, has begun supplying electricity to the grid. The reactor is ramping up power, and expects to enter full-power commercial operations in mid-November.

Kyushu Restarts Sendai 2

Kyushu Electric Power Co. restarted its Sendai 2 nuclear energy facility in Kagoshima prefecture, the second reactor to restart since the introduction of new post-Fukushima regulatory standards.

The 846-megawatt pressurized water reactor was restarted 10:30 a.m. local time Oct. 15. It will be connected to the grid Oct. 21 and is expected to reach full power by early November. Commercial operations should begin mid-November after a final inspection by the Nuclear Regulatory Authority.

Sendai 1, also an 846-MW PWR, was restarted Aug. 11 and resumed commercial operation in September. The Federation of Electric Power Companies of Japan reported that the reactor generated more than 671,000 megawatt-hours of electricity in September, for a capacity factor of 104.7 percent for the month.

Of Japan’s 43 operable reactors, the next one likely to restart is Shikoku Electric’s Ikata 3. The Ikata Town assembly and Ehime prefectural assembly both approved the restart, but the NRA’s final pre-service inspection has not begun. Meanwhile, Kansai Electric’s post-Fukushima construction and operational safety plans for its Takahama 3 and 4 reactors have passed NRA review. The company has asked the NRA to conduct pre-startup inspections prior to loading fuel into the reactors, pending a Nov. 14 court hearing to lift a temporary ban issued by Fukui District Court. Depending on the outcome of the hearing, Takahama 3 could restart late December and Takahama 4 early next year.

Japan’s government said in May it wants up to a 22 percent nuclear share in the country’s energy mix by 2030, down from about 30 percent before the Fukushima accident.

Saudi Aramco sets October propane to $360/T, up $45 from the September Level

noreply@blogger.com (astalavista) — Thu, 01 Oct 2015 06:28:00 +0000

State-run Saudi Aramco has increased its October contract price for propane to $360 a tonne, up $45 from the September level, an industry source said on Wednesday. Butane prices for October 2015 were set to $365 a tonne, up $20 from September level of $345. The prices provide a benchmark against which Middle East sales of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) to Asia are priced. Following is a table of Saudi Aramco's contract prices of propane and butane per tonne in U.S. dollars.

Product October 2015 - September 2015 Change
Propane $360 $315 +45
Butane $365 $345 +20

The U.S. is producing more natural gas than ever in 2015

noreply@blogger.com (astalavista) — Fri, 04 Sep 2015 06:09:00 +0000

The U.S. is producing more natural gas than ever in 2015, despite low prices that make it increasingly difficult for companies to spend money on drilling. In fact, the government's Energy Information Administration forecasts a 5.4% increase in output this year compared to 2014.

But new numbers from EIA suggest some trouble just ahead for gas production, especially in the resource-rich shale formations that have given rise to a U.S. renaissance in oil and gas production.

In its August "Drilling Productivity Report," EIA forecasts that gas production will decline in all seven of the United States' major shale regions in September, the first across-the-board slump in shale gas production ever recorded by the agency.

"We're starting to see a slow-down," said Lynn Westfall, director of EIA's Office of Energy Markets and Financial Analysis, which compiles the report.

In May, production reached an all-time high of 45.6 billion cubic feet a day in the shale regions, including the Marcellus in Pennsylvania, the biggest gas field in the U.S. By September, the daily output is expected to fall to 44.9 billion cubic feet, according to EIA's projections.

The other shale formations are Bakken in North Dakota, Eagle Ford in Texas, Haynesville in Louisiana and Texas, Niobrara in Colorado, Permian in Texas and Utica in Ohio.

EIA uses a relatively simple calculation for the report, comparing estimates of production from existing wells with that expected from newly drilled wells, based on the number of drilling rigs in operation. In its latest assessment, the agency concludes that output from new wells in shale formations will lag falloffs in production from older wells next month.

"Given the substantial drop in rig counts since the fourth quarter of 2014 in each of the (shale) regions and growing declines in production from legacy wells, productivity increases are less able to completely offset lower rig counts and legacy well declines," the report explains.

That said, the decline doesn't appear so great as to upset EIA's projections for gas production in the U.S. as a whole, including gas from other, conventional onshore wells and wells in the Gulf of Mexico. In fact, the agency in its "Short Term Energy Outlook" for August predicted that total U.S. gas production would climb by 4 billion cubic feet per day in 2015 compared to 2014, reaching 78.7 billion cubic feet per day, with improvements in drilling efficiency offsetting low prices.

But that growth tapers off in 2016, with total U.S. gas production rising 1.8 billion cubic feet per day, for a daily total of 80.5 billion cubic feet.

"Production in the first half of 2015 was well above the first half of 2014, so even if we have declining production now, just averaging over the year will give you an increase in 2015 over 2014," Westfall said in an interview. "In 2016, you'll start seeing the price effect."

The Henry Hub spot price for gas – the U.S. benchmark for the commodity – was $2.63 per million British thermal units on Thursday, down 34.5% from the same day one year ago. At that time, the price was $4.02.

Westfall cautions that the drilling report, unlike EIA's other market analyses, doesn't take into account economic factors, such as changes in the price of gas, or new infrastructure to carry gas from shale formations.

For example, the 1,698-mile Rockies Express Pipeline, originally built to carry gas east from Colorado and Wyoming, just recently began shipping gas west from the Marcellus and Utica shale formations, opening new markets and potentially providing higher prices for producers in those regions.

And with near-record levels of inventory, the U.S. gas industry will head into the winter heating season with more than enough supply to meet demand.

But discrepancies bear scrutiny, Westfall says.

"The purpose of the report is more to point out those inflection points, when we do see things start to change direction," he said. "It's very good for that. But beyond a couple of months, anything can happen."

Restart of first nuclear for Japan, still cloudy outlook

noreply@blogger.com (astalavista) — Thu, 03 Sep 2015 06:09:00 +0000

The number of Japanese nuclear reactors likely to restart in the next few years has halved, hit by legal challenges and worries about meeting tougher safety standards imposed in the wake of the Fukushima disaster, a Reuters analysis shows.

The country has been inching back to nuclear energy, turning on its first reactor in mid-August after a two-year blackout, with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and many in industry looking to cut fuel bills despite widespread public opposition to atomic power.

But the analysis shows that of the other 42 operable reactors remaining in the country, just seven are likely to be turned on in the next few years, down from the 14 predicted in a similar survey last year.

The findings are based on reactor inspection data from industry watchdog the Nuclear Regulation Authority, court rulings and interviews with local authorities, utilities and energy experts. They also show that nine reactors are unlikely to ever restart and that the fate of the remaining 26 looks uncertain.

“Four-and-a-half years after the events started unfolding at Fukushima Daiichi, the Japanese government, the nuclear utilities and the NRA have not succeeded in overcoming complete planning insecurity for investors. The outlook for restarts is as cloudy as ever,” said Mycle Schneider, an independent energy consultant in Paris.

Japan’s utilities have been burning liquefied natural gas (LNG) in record quantities to make up for lost nuclear capacity, bolstering international markets for the fuel.

Legal challenges from local residents have hit all atomic plants, with the country’s most nuclear-reliant utility Kansai Electric Power issued with court rulings preventing the restart of four reactors despite two of them already receiving NRA approval to switch on.

Kansai has appealed the judgements but the court cases may take years to resolve if the rulings are not overturned on the first appeal.

Tougher safety standards and stricter implementation of rules since Fukushima have also been hitting restarts. Japan Atomic Power has been battling a regulatory ruling that one of its reactors sits above an active fault, meaning it must be decommissioned.

And highlighting the pitfalls of rebooting the industry, Kyushu Electric was forced to slow the ramp up of power from its Sendai No. 1 reactor after it restarted around mid-August due to problems with pumping equipment. Engineers warn that firing up reactors that have been offline for prolonged periods could be fraught with such troubles.

But offering some hope to nuclear operators, some aging units may be given a new lease of life as the NRA considers applications for operation beyond the standard 40 years.

Two Kansai units, both around 40 years old, are being vetted for extensions. The regulator has said it would be very strict on granting permission, but Kansai is pushing for acceptance of less costly measures on fireproofing thousands of kilometres of wiring.

Saudi Aramco sets September propane to $315/T, down $50 from the August Level

noreply@blogger.com (astalavista) — Mon, 31 Aug 2015 07:22:00 +0000

State-run Saudi Aramco has cut its September contract price for propane to $315 a tonne, down $50 from the August level, an industry source said on Monday. Butane prices for September 2015 were set to $345 a tonne, down $55 from August level of $400. The prices provide a benchmark against which Middle East sales of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) to Asia are priced. Following is a table of Saudi Aramco's contract prices of propane and butane per tonne in U.S. dollars.

Product September 2015 - August 2015 Change
Propane $315 $365 -50
Butane $345 $400 -55

Saudi Aramco sets March propane to $500/T, up $50 from the February Level

noreply@blogger.com (astalavista) — Mon, 02 Mar 2015 15:20:00 +0000

State-run Saudi Aramco has increased its March contract price for propane to $500 a tonne, up $50 from the February level, an industry source said on Monday. Butane prices for March 2015 were set to $460 a tonne, down $20 from February level of $480. The prices provide a benchmark against which Middle East sales of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) to Asia are priced. Following is a table of Saudi Aramco's contract prices of propane and butane per tonne in U.S. dollars.

Product February 2015 - February 2014 Change
Propane $500 $450 +50
Butane $460 $480 -20

Europe Gas Storage Data for 05-02-2015

noreply@blogger.com (astalavista) — Fri, 06 Feb 2015 15:44:00 +0000

European inventories were 52.61 percent full as of February 5, 2015, from 55.21 percent a year ago, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe, a lobby group of pipeline operators in Brussels.

710.98 million cubic meters of gas was withdrawn from storage facilities of Europe. Storage sites contained 48.23(5 Bcm extra from Netherlands, not available in 2014) billion cubic meters of gas which is 4.63 billion cubic meters more than 43.6 billion cubic meters of 2013 gas storage the same day. A net withdrawal from storage of 5.52 Bcm for the week resulted in storage levels 10.61 % more than year-ago levels.If Netherlands data excluded the storage is
1% lowe than year ago.

Ukraine has reduced natural gas reserves in its underground gas storage facilities by %45.79 , or by 7.67 billion cubic meters , since the start of the 2014-2015 heating season, according to preliminary data from gas transport operator Ukrtransgaz.

As of October 19 2014, Ukrainian facilities had 16.75 billion cubic meters of gas at the end of its gas injection season, while this figure was 9.08 billion cubic meters as of February 5 which means the storage is %28.43 full now.

During the week ending on February 5, Ukraine withdrew average of 48 million cubic meters of gas per day.Ukraine storage may cover as much as 189 days of consumption within this last week's average.

Europe Storage Data for 05-02-2014

Saudi Aramco sets February propane to $450/T, up $25 from the January Level

noreply@blogger.com (astalavista) — Fri, 30 Jan 2015 08:23:00 +0000

State-run Saudi Aramco has increased its February contract price for propane to $450 a tonne, up $25 from the January level, an industry source said on Thursday. Butane prices for February 2015 were also increased to $480 a tonne, up $10 from January level of $470. The prices provide a benchmark against which Middle East sales of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) to Asia are priced. Following is a table of Saudi Aramco's contract prices of propane and butane per tonne in U.S. dollars.

Product February 2015 - January 2014 Change
Propane $450 $425 +25
Butane $480 $470 -10

Europe Gas Storage Data for 14-01-2015

noreply@blogger.com (astalavista) — Thu, 15 Jan 2015 09:38:00 +0000

European inventories were 68.42 percent full as of January 14, 2015, from 65.28 percent a year ago, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe, a lobby group of pipeline operators in Brussels.

454.8 million cubic meters of gas was withdrawn from storage facilities of Europe. Storage sites contained 57.12 billion cubic meters of gas which is 5.61 billion cubic meters more than 51.51 billion cubic meters of 2013 gas storage the same day. A net withdrawal from storage of 3.01 Bcm for the week resulted in storage levels 10.89 % more than year-ago levels.

Ukraine has reduced natural gas reserves in its underground gas storage facilities by %38.26 , or by 6.41 billion cubic meters , since the start of the 2014-2015 heating season, according to preliminary data from gas transport operator Ukrtransgaz.

As of October 19 2014, Ukrainian facilities had 16.75 billion cubic meters of gas at the end of its gas injection season, while this figure was 10.34 billion cubic meters as of January 14 which means the storage is %32.37 full now.

During the week ending on January 14, Ukraine withdrew average of 78 million cubic meters of gas per day.Ukraine storage may cover as much as 132 days of consumption within this last week's average.

Europe Storage Data for 14-01-2014

Europe Gas Storage Data for 13-01-2015

noreply@blogger.com (astalavista) — Wed, 14 Jan 2015 16:00:00 +0000

European inventories were 69.19 percent full as of January 13, 2014, from 65.59 percent a year ago, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe, a lobby group of pipeline operators in Brussels.

469.29 million cubic meters of gas was withdrawn from storage facilities of Europe. Storage sites contained 57.76 billion cubic meters of gas which is 6.01 billion cubic meters more than 51.75 billion cubic meters of 2013 gas storage the same day. A net withdrawal from storage of 2.81 Bcm for the week resulted in storage levels 11.61 % more than year-ago levels.

Ukraine has reduced natural gas reserves in its underground gas storage facilities by %37.97 , or by 6.36 billion cubic meters , since the start of the 2014-2015 heating season, according to preliminary data from gas transport operator Ukrtransgaz.

As of October 19 2014, Ukrainian facilities had 16.75 billion cubic meters of gas at the end of its gas injection season, while this figure was 10.41 billion cubic meters as of January 13 which means the storage is %32.58 full now.

During the week ending on January 13, Ukraine withdrew average of 81 million cubic meters of gas per day.Ukraine storage may cover as much as 128 days of consumption within this last week's average.

Europe Storage Data for 13-01-2014