Global Current Affairs: A Series of Unsolicited Opinions

A Curious case of Google v. Iran

2012-05-21T09:44:00.001-05:00

I may be wrong on this, but Iran has more pressing issues than picking a fight with Google. Threatening to sue Google over incorrectly labeling the Persian Gulf is no different from a stranded swimmer in the middle of the ocean picking a fight with Verizon over its sucky text messaging service.
Pardon my wacky analogy, but with the world’s eyes on Iran’s nuclear facilities and a plethora of sanctions suffocating the economy of the Middle Eastern nation, one would think the last thing it would be worried about will be naming rights of seas and oceans.

But I was wrong.

Google failed to label the Persian Gulf on Google maps. On the surface it will seem trivial to most of us, except that Iran sees this from a slightly different vantage point, than all of us. In their eyes, the dispute over the waterway that borders Iran and several Arab countries is still far from settled; hence any omission or incorrect labeling insinuates a deeper geopolitical alignment than what it seems on the surface.

Let’s be fair for a moment. Google didn’t forget to label the Arabian Sea, Gulf of Aden and Red Sea, so it’s only fair to ponder what really is going on here? But Google’s point is that not every water body is labeled.

The last time any such case appeared in recent high stakes bickering, South China Sea was the bone of contention. For years neighboring countries Vietnam, Philippines and Malaysia didn’t care much about the water body along its borderlines. When China began to flex its muscles and issue what many saw to be an owner’s rights of usage, the previously nonchalant countries came out fuming. The basis of their anger, besides the rights to oil and gas transactions, was the name South China Sea. Vietnam is still pushing to change the South China Sea’s name to the Southeast Asia Sea.

Maybe the “name game” is a bit more far-reaching than we like to believe.

If so, then Iran is not picking a trivial fight to divert attention from more pressing issues like nuclear weapons and economic sanctions to Ahmadinejad’s government. Either way, it’s a curious storyline, and Google might as well fix the glitch and let the world move on to other burning issues, hopefully something that will not have anything to do with Kim Kardashian.

Just a thought.

Facebook IPO: Ready or Not, Here it Comes

2012-05-18T09:58:00.000-05:00

Marc Zuckerberg will be laughing his way all the way to the bank in a matter of hours as soon as the world sees the face of the $38 a share Facebook. Just in case you are wondering how the company became so-important-so-fast, every time a user “Like” something, adds a picture or connects to a friend from 45 years ago, Facebook grins from ear to ear. Two words, - targeted advertising.

According to people who managed to follow the IPO hype and anticipation over the last few months, Facebook's IPO could be raking in $16 billion when all the hoopla is over today.

It is slated to be the largest tech IPO in history, and the company is well aware that it has some big shoes to fill. Even worse, it has a huge market-returns appetite to feed. The only tricky element in all this is that many of the people who live on Facebook (the engine of this market capitalization) have yet to figure out that their actions and activities are the bedrock of this IPO success. In essence, the product on sale is still unaware that it is for sale.

What happens if people wake up tomorrow morning to find Facebook’s privacy policy changed to make every data on the site legally for sale? An even simpler question is, how much will you pay to share status updates and cute baby photos on Facebook walls? $5.99? 0?

That’s the question not even Marc Zuckerberg has answers to.

Today is a big day for the company, nonetheless, but I have a feeling that is precisely the reason why many insiders are still unsure of how Facebook will monetize the platform and continue to remain profitable over the next few years. Staying “sexy” in a competitive market is trickier when users have to constantly evaluate the returns on their investment. That’s a no brainer.

Insiders suggest that Facebook’s market capitalization is sitting around $81 billion and will very well be veering uphill of $100 billion. The company will have to grow aggressively in the next 3 years, and that’s why many so-called experts didn’t just sit on the fence on Facebook’s IPO, they packed their bags and went fishing.

On another note, the company is yet to face the most rigorous scrutiny it’s ever seen since its inception. Many even predict its glitz to fade sooner than it can avoid the marketing curveballs.

Let’s face it; social media is not oil and gas. It’s one of those products a user can walk away in any nanosecond and don’t lose a lung. There are so many cute baby photos [obviously I’m fascinated by baby photos] you can upload before your company IT guy descends on you to remind you that you’re at work for a different reason.

Americans - and by extension human beings - are always attracted to the new and the trendy. You can bet many companies will emerge to steal the glitter of Facebook in the coming months, especially if Facebook tries a desperate stunt to charge even a penny for users to subscribe. Very soon the “what have you done for me lately “syndrome will kick in, and Facebook will have to find something captivating to keep enthusiasm levels high as a kite. That may be the crux of the challenge.

But for market watchers and business analyts, the real test for the viability of another social media platform has began. Facebook may have learned from the demise of its predecessors, notably MySpace, but just in case the product by its very nature is not designed to survive a long term market rigor, Marc Zuckerberg will be wise to cash in all he can while the iron is hot.

Today is a big day for Facebook, and a well deserved one. Tomorrow will be a different story altogether, but who is keeping track?

Perhaps Zuckerberg is.

The Psychology of Precedents

2012-04-26T15:22:00.003-05:00

I bet former Libyan leader Muamar Ghadaffi saw a day like this in the cards, hence he chose to fight even when there was no hope of winning against a world that had finally exposed his shenanigans and a Libyan people eager to take a stand.

The international tribunal found former Liberian President Charles Taylor guilty of aiding and abetting war crimes in neighboring Sierra Leone's civil war.

Who thought this day will ever come? The surprise, I will admit, isn’t the idea of Charles Taylor behind bars but rather the dawning of a new world order where punishment for crimes against humanity - and international tribunals - just redefined the notion of political and territorial sovereignty.

Guilty on all 11 counts of aiding and abetting rebel forces in a campaign of terror that involved murder, rape, sexual slavery, conscripting children under the age of 15 and mining diamonds to pay for guns.

The horror of those years and the sleepless nights that it brought to many will not immediately fade away with this landmark ruling for an African ex-leader, but it will serve as a welcome caution for the rest of the heads of states with ideas of clinging to power at all cost.

Charles Taylor was president of Liberia from 1997 and his six years in power will forever be defined by the overthrow of Samuel Doe’s regime.

The country descended into a bloody civil war over the next 14 years, and many argue that the country has never been the same since.

The ICC has charged Laurent Gbagbo, the former Ivory Coast president, with crimes against humanity. It also has a warrant out for Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir.

Nothing at all, that’s what Africans are celebrating today, especially in Sierra Leone.

The hope for many, at least, is that Charles Taylor will indeed serve his time in the British prison, and at least have all the time in the world to watch endless reruns of Leonardo Dicaprio’s “Blood Diamond” movie.

The moral of the story: - for the International Criminal Court to haul Charles Taylor to justice, it’s perhaps managed to state its relevance in contemporary society. The most important victory of all is that this judgment offers a glimmer of hope that no one is above the law, a concept still a bit strange to African leaders.

North Korea – Déjàvu All Over Again

2012-04-13T09:09:00.001-05:00

North Korea wakes up one morning and decides to launch a missile. A nervous world can only watch. The United Nations and the rest of the world have repeatedly warned North Korea against its long-nurtured ambition to launch a long-range missile. But whatever North Korea wants, North Korea does, - or so it seems.

As unfortunate as that may come across, the real puzzle is what it will take to get through to the leaders in Pyongyang about the real concerns of a nuclear test, and the security ramifications in a region that will not be forever sitting back aloof or patient.

A trip down memory lane: Remember Pyongyang’s 2006 missile launch which failed after about 40 seconds in flight. We all thought that was the end of that story.

The nightmare showed up again with the satellite launch in April 2009, and the U.N. Security Council condemned the action and demanded that it not be repeated. That rocket traveled 2,300 miles before its third stage fell into the Pacific Ocean.

Fast-forward to yesterday, April 12, 2012. Reliable sources say "the first stage of the missile fell into the sea 165 km west of Seoul, South Korea." The fact remains then, that North Korea may never get the missile memo, and will continue to pursue its own security ambitions regardless of the repercussions.

There are two learnings from yesterday’s event. First, the failure of the launch seeks to suggest that with all the barking and hoopla, North Korea’s missile stance is a fluke and a bunch of empty threats. Many point to how North Korea made noise about the launch, “which coincided with celebrations surrounding the 100th anniversary of the birth of its late founding leader, Kim Il-sung.”

Second, North Korea will ignore every international and multilateral security concern in favor of its narrow ambitions, regardless of what treaties and sanctions are leveled against the country to coerce it into submission.

For the UN, the launch’s failure is just as disturbing as any success. One school of thought seeks to suggest North Korea will be dealing with some level of public humiliation in the aftermath of this botched launch, but that logic assumes the leaders truly care about their international reputation in the first place. The jury is still out on that one.

The U.N. Security Council, for their part, has their work cut out for them in the next few days, only time will tell how far one country will go to threaten regional security and violate every international law.

Then the billion dollar question becomes “what now”?

To Russia with Love

2012-03-30T07:59:00.005-05:00

I love candid conversations. A person’s true intent is clearly expressed, unless it’s a clever ploy by a whiz kid to redirect public conversation. Ask President Obama, and he will tell you that is no fun “busted” and leaving your political opponents with all the arsenals to hammer away on your misstep.

The President said he will have more “flexibility after his last election.” He said this in South Korea and in reference to any further discussion with Russia about the missile defense system.
A quick side note will help. Among the main points of the US-Russia tug-of-war, the Kremlin wants a treaty of some kind to guarantee that in the event the US build any such system, it will never use it against Russia.

A few things to note here, the President seems confident this election is “in the bag”, - and who wouldn’t think so - judging from the GOP soap opera parading across America. The sooner a candidate emerges, the better it will be for us all. But is President Obama’s gaffe political arrogance or sheer overconfidence? Maybe a little of both, but many argue that it will take a miracle for Santorum or Romney to have a chance in November.

The other intriguing point to note is that President Obama sees a solution to the missile dilemma. His only drawback is that he may have run out of political capital to spend on this issue any time before November. To get US Congress to ratify any treaty like what Russia is asking for will make the healthcare debate look like a Christmas party. Either way the White House will have some explanation to do.

Why? Because the President is on record [at least by intent], and I bet re-elected Russian President Vladimir Putin saw the video too.

The US- Russia relationship has been complex ever since the Cold war, and every attempt to smooth over the sticky points leave one political issue still unresolved. One day it is Omar Bashir in Sudan, the next day it is the questionable human rights record of China. For now, the big issue is any concession that will affect the United State’s missile defense capabilities, and how to give a “blank check of assurance” to the often uncompromising Russia.

The White House will do their part to reassure us that the President is not promising the American people and brokering deals on the contrary. Let’s face it, most politicians are careful to not raise any eyebrows during the election year, and rather spend the year fine-tuning the election resume. Nevertheless, a microphone blunder can cause more unexpected trouble for anyone caught off guard. It’s an embarrassment to the White House, regardless of how well anyone spins it. President Obama’s saving grace is the fact that missing defense issue one of those topics most people hardly know anything about, and many more don’t even care.

Open microphones, candid conversations and damage control. Good luck sir.

Where there is the Pope, - there is [usually] Hope

2012-03-29T11:19:00.001-05:00

Pope Benedict was in Cuba earlier this week nudging the Castro government to allow for greater “religious freedoms” for citizens. Not a bad idea, although many will argue that Cubans need a larger measure of freedom across all facets of society, - not only in religion.

A slight irony to this is the fact that the Catholic Church and the word “change” do not typically dwell in the same sentence, at least historically speaking. I’m sure the Pope is well aware of this, and he can’t afford to let the Catholic faithful continue to dissipate.

In an age where diplomacy is become a matter of necessity, and where any gesture can symbolize a myriad of political cues, the Pope knew his visit with the Castro brothers was more than a vacation in Havana.

Lest we forget, Mexican President Felipe Calderon hosted the Pope a few days earlier, and at a time where he can use all the support he gets to win reelection. For my buddy Calderon, Pope Benedict XVI must have been a necessary platform to spread a little hope to Mexican citizenry gradually turning away from his party. The point being that, the Pope’s visit is never a bad idea, and in fact most governments are clever enough to spin it to win support for the Catholic voting blocs.

Here comes the twist. The Catholic faithful is getting increasingly liberal. Controversial social issues like abortion, birth control and divorce are becoming “grey areas”, - a stark contrast form the former view that such topics were not even up for discussion.

Let’s face it; with the ever changing landscape of personal beliefs and individual freedoms, Pope Benedict XVI has his work cut out for him. Maybe the after-effects from Cuba and Mexico might echo in other countries. No one knows for certain if the Pope’s visit is an indirect support for Calderon in Mexico, or Raul Castro in Cuba, but the sentiments in both countries are fast changing against the government, and the role of the church in political and social life.

Side note; - is this Cuba’s signal to the world that it’s interested in extending a hand of reconciliation to Cuban’s in exile, global trade agreements, and genuine social and political freedoms for Cubans on the island? Not so fast – probably – but that‘s still an interesting subplot.

Politics of Unemployment

2012-03-22T16:19:00.011-05:00

The strangest thing happened today. A vendor sends a proposal for a given industrial equipment at a given price yesterday. A short 24 hours later, fluctuations in foreign exchange rates cause the price of the same equipment to be $20,000 cheaper than it was yesterday.
I was tempted to see it as a reward for procurement inaction, and financial genius from someone who didn’t see this coming. Of course, the company takes the credit, but is the global financial system flawed to that extent produce wealth out of thin air? It’s all in how you tell the story, as may be the case with 8.3% unemployment rate in the U.S.

That is no different from reports today that United States jobless claims have dipped to a 4-year low and [all things being equal] it will get even lower.
That’s exactly what the Obama administration had been preaching for the past year that the economic recovery will be slow, but will sooner or later be here.
Before we get ecstatic, however, proponents will be quick to point out that the numbers of unemployment claims do not account for people who have given up looking for work [thanks to lousy employment market], thus skews the data for political gain.

True, perhaps, but how do you account for the voluntarily unemployed? The point most economists rather dwell on is the fact that low claims for unemployment benefits is usually a good sign that the labor market is on the rebound. [Key word is usually]

The real task for President Obama and his guys will be long-term unemployment, with nearly “13 million workers are still unemployed, with more than 40 percent of them jobless for six months or more.”

On the subject of skewing data for political gain, I learned a statistical interpretation trick in B-school. The devil is in the numbers, just as the truth is also. Any business school product will tell you all about how sample sizes can easily expand parameters, and ultimately dilute intended messages. Even worse, express any information percentages and a cross section of the population are confused, while many more stand back in awe. Of course one cannot insinuate that to be the Departments of Labor’s media strategy, because at the end of the day even President Obama will be first to tell you there is a lot more to be done.

Fact: An average of nearly a quarter million jobs was added each month to payrolls. But there is the other side of the story, - what kinds of jobs? That’s a question that will never have the right answer, and that simply revolves around the fact that distinguishing between jobs to grow the economy and ideal jobs individuals will prefer, lends itself to subjective interpretations and a lot of grey areas. The 8.3% unemployment number gives politicians something to tout in November, but the question will remain - are they recipients of a system on autopilot, or they should indeed be rewarded for creating the glimmer of employment hope, in the least?

The moral of the story; - if you have a job, be thankful and work even harder. If you’re still unemployed, the opportunities might be closer than you think. Best of luck.

Remember Journey’s classic hit, - “Don’t stop believing?”

KONY2012 – A Necessary Controversy?

2012-03-15T11:28:00.001-05:00

The very fact that we are all talking about Joseph Kony in 2012 will suggest that the sensationalized documentary “KONY 2012” has achieved its mission. Whether or not their strategy had been questionable along the way is a matter of subjective interpretation. Or so it seems.

Thanks to YouTube and Facebook, KONY 2012 recounts the alleged criminal activities of Ugandan warlord Joseph Kony, the leader of the rebel Lord's Resistance Army. Millions of people are watching and talking about it.
For the sake of accuracy, it is important to note that Joseph Kony’s crimes date back to the 1980s, and Ugandans will be quick to remind you that he hasn’t even been in the country for nearly a decade.

Either way, allegations of “killing and disfiguring of villagers, forcing children to become soldiers, and forcing girls into sexual slavery” makes him a wanted man on the international crimes circuit, - and this has been the case for years.

So why will a California-based “charity group” Invisible Children find the need to produce a film that many argue is inaccurate and rebrands Africa as a helpless group of people waiting for the western world to save them?

Invisible Children will say they wanted to bring awareness to an issue, and they’ve done their job. Whatever their covert agenda was, - be it publicity or more “chi-ching” in their coffers - that is the nature of advocacy in the internet age. Anyone can be a star, any issue can catch wildfire and very soon the true intentions may be lost in the shadows.

Somehow – all of a sudden - more people care about something no one has cared about for years. So I get the argument from both sides. Whether we like it or not, Invisible Children will make boatloads of cash from this, and chances are, the victims and he people in Uganda may never see a dime of it. Or they may, but who really knows?

Let’s face it, if it takes Invisible Children to get the world to sit up rather than remain aloof and pretend the world is all hunky-dory, - so be it. Joseph Kony’s LRA deserves justice, but with politicians and international agencies too busy fighting for their own survival, all it takes is a blink of an eye for the most heinous crimes to fall off the priority list o the “ever-waiting list.”

As you read this, innocent children are dying in Syria and even worse, there are still children dying from the aftermath of the Haiti earthquake. The same earthquake from 2010 that made the world cry, and country and celebrity jump out to promise to act. 2 years later, the world forgot all about the pain and horror and moved n with life.

So, I bet the controversy about whether the film does more harm than good will go on and on. If there is any blame to go around, it probably should start with a world that sits back for nearly 26 years for warlord Joseph Kony to decimate villages and wreck havoc in Uganda.

At the heart of all this, - stories about Africa still posses the mystique, impenetrability and a lot of unknowns.

Think of the last time you saw any documentary that showed a progressive and modern Africa, with booming business centers and peaceful societies. And that date was. . . . - my point exactly. Information about Africa catches wildfire when it piques the curiosity of an otherwise largely oblivious world, and confirms what people already assume.

For some charity groups [and by no means am I insinuating Invisible Children here] it’s a lot easier to sell a product the consumer already believe exists. It makes business sense. Unfortunately for Uganda and Africa in general, it is very easy to sell stereotypes and misinformation the world will forever be clueless about, - even if it is curious.

I am itching to know what Invisible Children’s next production will be.

Haiti, maybe?

Unraveling a Milestone: Tragedy in Kandahar

2012-03-13T10:41:00.003-05:00

A rogue U.S. military man. A tragic rampage on innocent lives. Tensions brewing in an already boiling cauldron. . .

Just when the US military hoped to be making progress in a land where the Taliban is also doing their very best to present an alternative ideology, a U.S. staff sergeant does the unthinkable.

Of course, it wouldn’t take a rocket scientist to know that regardless of how careful Pentagon military officials, and even President Obama attempts to clarify the Panjwai massacre, there are Afghans and many skeptics around the world who still argue that the United States shouldn’t be in Afghanistan in the first place.

The claims and allegations will be coming from every corner in the coming days, with some reports pointing to a rogue base, and that some of the soldiers may even have had post traumatic stress disorder.

What we know now [thanks to CNN] is that this unnamed soldier is a staff sergeant, was a qualified infantry sniper, had spent three tours of duty in Iraq where he suffered a traumatic brain injury in a 2010 vehicle accident.

Try explaining that to the families of 16 innocent civilians. Our collective condolence go to the families, although I have a funny feeling that it will be a tough gig trying to send genuine consolation messages when the Taliban and other anti-U.S groups are doing everything in the power to sell their own agendas.

This is where the United States and Afghanistan gets to the dreaded diplomatic crossroad.

Will the Afghans overlook all the goodwill and sacrifice of the U.S. military over the past decade and break away after this unfortunate incident? Will President Hamid Karzai attempt to qualm the anger in the streets and the anti-US sentiments [at the risk of being labeled a traitor for supporting US agenda], no matter what?

Will this tragic incident be the catalyst that speeds President Obama’s timeline to exit Afghanistan altogether? The fact remains, regardless of how the soldier is prosecuted,- even if he faces the harshest death penalty in the harshest Afghan court - there will still be some that will not see that as justice-served. NATO is stuck with a dicey proposition in a country where anti-American groups sadly cherish these tragedies, and use them to sell their own agendas.

Lest we forget, there are Americans who see a no-win situation in Afghanistan unless the U.S. dedicates troops in the region for the rest of eternity, an expensive adventure I might add. Unlike Iraq, Afghanistan is a much tougher gig because it is one thing defining freedom, - but how exactly does one define “stability?”

A difficult task just got even more difficult, and President Hamid Karzai has his job cut out for him as well.

It’s sad to say, but this tragedy may have just kissed any hopes of stability in Afghanistan bye-bye.

I hope not.

Waiting for Cinderella

2012-03-09T10:42:00.000-06:00

What is it about homo-sapiens that makes us want to root for the underdog? Isn’t it counterproductive to get “all hyped up” knowing very well that sooner or later the bubble may burst, and the big dogs will rule once again?

2012 NCAA tournament will take center stage next week, and come Monday, and half of America will be bracketology experts. 64 schools will make the Big Dance, but even the runaway favorites will have to wait for Monday morning to see which other teams fall in their brackets and how dangerous their path to the championship may be.

But this Cinderella phenomenon never ceases to emerge every year. Perhaps it comes from a somewhat innate tendency hard-wired into all of us, because most of us have been an underdog once upon a time.

There is always a Davidson [with Stephen Curry a few years ago], or a VCU [from 2011] who show up from nowhere to woo basketball audiences everywhere. They make the tournament exciting, and only a few hang around long enough to be in the Final 4. Cinderella’s make great upset storylines, and sends a powerhouse home crying in a game they had no business losing. If I learned anything from last year’s tournament, it is the fact that Cinderellas are not flukes, and they can in fact win it all.

If you asked me several months ago who will be the last school dancing in March, I would have picked Ohio State Buckeyes without skipping a heartbeat. Jared Sullinger made me a Buckeye believer, and it had everything to do with the spillover from last season when he was as dominant as any college basketball player has ever been. Callipari’s Kentucky looked unbeatable at the beginning of the season and I expect a more matured and potent Wildcats team to be even tougher than last year’s group.

But all that was 5 months ago [eternity in college basketball years] , long before Austin Rivers and Duke showed they had the firepower to match North Carolina’s dizzying offense. Then Kansas emerged as a real contender [note to self: Never rule out a Bill Self coached team] and Baylor found a way to remain relevant.

LIU Brooklyn puvcchned theirticket earlier in the week and Harvard enters the tournament with a Lin fever putting the spotlight on an otherwise first-round-exit team.

Texas Longhorns have been lukewarm all season, a far cry from the university that gave us names like Kevin Durant and DJ Augustine just a few years ago. Missouri will be a team to watch, under the radar but just as capable of rubbing elbows with any of the big boys.

Uconn will always find a way to be in the mix, but the Huskies have too many holes in their game [and I’m not pretending to be a basketball expert by means], and the same is case for Georgetown, Notre Dame and even Michigan State [one of my early season favorites].

All week, we have been paying attention to some teams sitting on the “bubble”, including Northwestern, South Florida, Mississippi State, Oregon and Washington. None made the cut. I may be crazy for making predictions long before the brackets are set, but Syracuse is my pick to win it all. Not Kentucky.

In as much as I am intrigued by Cinderella picks - I enjoy the thrill of the ride- but I want to pick winners too.

Memo to employers; don’t expect too much from employees next week, their concentration level will sink to an all-year low, and it’s not a reflection on competence;- its March madness baby.

North Korea: Glimpses of Lull

2012-03-08T15:12:00.002-06:00

Smiling faces in Pyongyang? A leader with a sense of humor and maybe a heart for his people too? Maybe Kim Jong Un is not his father, and he may just be “what the doctor ordered.”

With ongoing talks behind the scenes for North Korea to freeze its nuclear ambitions, it’s becoming somewhat clear that all negotiations are just as dependent on the players involved, as they may be on the issue at hand.

For years, no one was able to get through to Kim Jong Il regardless of what political and moral pressure the world lashed out at him. The very thought of Pyongyang sitting on nuclear weapons and unwilling to play on a world stage, pushed everyone to the edge of their seats hoping for a day when such fear will be a thing of the past.

For example, at every UN roundtable to address Iran’s nuclear threat to other countries in the Middle East region, there were always a few people who point out that the North Koreans haven’t budged either, and no one is itching to bomb them.

If Kim Jong Un proves to be what his father wasn’t, North Korea may become the reference point for any future discussion toward multilateral sanctions and international pressure. If Kim Jong Un halts missile tests, and uranium enrichment programs he may be saving his people further isolation from the rest of the world, - something his father didn’t seem to lose too much sleep over. But those are both “ifs.”

According to reliable sources, the US is sending a boatload of food assistance to North Korea this week. At the minimum, it’s a good faith agreement that may probably turn the tide towards to ultimate goal of demilitarization of the Korean peninsula. Your guess is as good as mine. Not many people know what the end game is here, especially when North Korea is not showing any signs of backing away from its threat to South Korea.

What’s the connection between North Korea and Iran?

Of course it will take a lot more than food aid to get Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to cave in from his hard-line position on allowing UN inspectors into his uranium enrichment program. Israel in threatening an attack Tehran instead of [according to Mr. Netanyahu] sitting back for a boiling cauldron to tip over into their lap, especially since the rest of the world doesn’t see the Iranian threat as dire as they see it.

The hope for most people [and I suspect for Israel too] will be for a peaceful and diplomatic solution through negotiations. Negotiations take time, and a willingness to sacrifice a position for mutual benefits.

So I have a funny feeling Iranians are watching the changing tide in Pyongyang closely; they may very well become arguments for leverage or blueprints for negotiations.

A Bloody Race to 1,144

2012-03-07T09:34:00.001-06:00

Yesterday was Super Tuesday. In a Republican Party nomination race that has become as unpredictable and marginally irrelevant as American Idol auditions, the rest of the world will have to wait a little longer to see the end of this parade.

To a large extent, last night’s results were crucial. Romney won some, and lost some. Santorum did too. Ron Paul lost most, and Gingrich won where he was supposed to win.
2 years ago, most people would have crowned Mitt Romney king of the hill by now, at least judging by his experience in running campaigns over the past decade and the pile of cash behind him. He stumbled many times with his own words, and he has himself to blame for a dogfight that shouldn’t have been.

We saw the likes of Herman Cain falter along the way and Michelle Bachman lose steam. Who can forget Texas’ own James Richard Perry. Rick Santorum, although not many independent voters see him as a serious contender to Mitt Romney [let alone Barack Obama] came from nowhere and is dragging this pageant all the way to the Republican National Convention.

The obvious lesson from all this, - money can’t buy elections.

At least not in a Republican Party that is dying for someone with a real message, and real charisma to match a conservative ideology. The inherent paradox here is the assertion [correctly or otherwise] by many as “conservatism” being synonymous to “out of date” and “out of touch.”

That’s a problem the party is living with, and that’s not Romney’s fault. It sure doesn’t help that he jokes about poor people, pink slips and his wife having 2 Cadillacs. Criticize her all you want, but there is a reason Sarah Palin struck a chord with so many people across the country. I am not suggesting hunting down Sarah from Alaska to be president, but I admit, I am still smitten by something about her.

I digressed.

Whoever comes out of this “RNC Idol” will have to brace himself for an Obama shellacking, at least that’s the prevailing notion based on the economic signs of recovery and Obama’s political traction the president will bring to the table. Regardless of who wins on the RNC side, he will be busy selling an idea and hope for what he can do, while Obama will be hitting home his own success stories, no matter how few. And in case you forgot, Osama Bin Laden is gone too; you bet the president will remind us, - again.

So yesterday was Super Tuesday, and there was nothing “super” about it. Mitt Romney has a problem convincing conservatives, Evangelicals and anywhere in the South. Rick Santorum doesn’t seem to stand a chance with anyone outside the hardcore conservative base. Not too any people will bet on Ron Paul or my buddy Newt, so it’s a safe assumption that they both along for the ride, until they ran out of cash.

Somewhere along the line, Mitt Romney will finally get his wish and become the Republican nominee for 2012, but it may mean little if the race to 1,144 gives America reason to question the Republican message overall.

For now, there are many voters who see the bickering and jabbing in the Primary Election season as no different from a spectacle from “Survivors” or an episode from “Real Housewives on New Jersey.” The longer this fight drags on, the more Americans will yearn for anyone else to compete with President Obama in November.

Once upon a time 1,144 was a magic number, but ask an honest GOP supporter and they will be quick to tell you what nightmare this has become.

. . . . And the key word here is “honest.”

Keystone XL - Not Just a Pipedream

2012-03-06T13:10:00.009-06:00

For once in a long time I am beginning to feel like a genius. Several months ago, [actually a little longer than that] a small Canadian company came up with a plan to construct a small pipeline from Canada to Texas.

Neither the company nor the advocates of pipeline anticipated the level of opposition waiting for it, and the firestorm in its wake summoned every environmentalist group to state their position on putting environment before economics.
They protested, argued and crashed president Obama’s White House lawn, and soon the president said the proposed pipeline needed a little more work to be acceptable. In all fairness, I see their point of view, very valid and is worth every serious consideration.

Call it naiveté, but I will be surprised if the Keystone XL Pipeline project falls anywhere by the wayside. [See my previous blogs on “a matter of when, not if”].You recall the bone of contention has hovered around Nebraska’s ecologically-sensitive Sandhills region. The logic here remains, that if anyone can come up with an alternative route, they immediately put a dent into any counter argument.
There is no denying that every country, including the United States is driving to achieve some level of independence for oil resources.

Oil from Canada is far from independent but it absolutely beats Iran and Saudi Arabia in any dispute. That’s the argument proponents are making, and although there is no debating the obvious economic benefits some companies and individuals stand to make from it all, the greater good may triumph at the end of the day.

There is way too much at stake on all sides to let TransCanada’s idea fall by the wayside.

The $7.6-billion project with the hopes of supplying oil from Canada to the Gulf of Mexico may be America’s most promising shot at increasing “domestic “supply, while it works on additional reserves from Alaska to Florida in the near future.

Last month, the Obama administration was forced to reject the Keystone plan and although environmentalists groups will like to take the credit for it, it may have had more to do with the feasibility issues in the original plan. Having alternative routes may prove to be the game changer for the Keystone Pipeline, and with oil prices surging to nearly $5 a gallon, it’s only a matter of time before Americans descend on Washington to sign any bill that resembles a workable solution.

TransCanada is putting a new plan on the board that splits the controversial cross-border pipeline into two separate systems and a $2.3-billion stand-alone pipeline from Oklahoma to Texas.

Keystone XL is far from a “slam dunk”, but the longer Israel keeps pressure on the United States to avoid bombing Iran, and the more Iran threatens to disrupt activities in the Strait of Hormuz, the more traction the pipeline gets.

Even more, the sooner Chinese and Indian economies emerge as legitimate oil guzzlers, and the sooner Putin tightens his grip on Europe’s oil supply and forces everyone to start looking for reliable alternatives, the quicker the United States will rush to the Canadian border to find the small Canadian company with the small Keystone XL pipeline idea.

I don’t subscribe to any notion that economic benefits and environmental responsiveness are mutually exclusive entities, - and that one’s’ survival threatens the existence of the other. It will be nice to see a country act on practical solutions, than wait for other international events to trigger a reaction, by which time, the costs may be a little too steep and many will left standing in the cold.

Just a thought.

Stand and Deliver: The Putin Sequel

2012-03-05T09:43:00.001-06:00

Maybe 3 times will be the charm. Vladimir Putin is not in the business of charming anyone except the Russians who have seen him in action firsthand, as both President and Prime Minister.

Not everyone in Russia, however, is celebrating the second coming of Putin, and judging from the protests in the Moscow streets a few months ago, Vladimir will have a little work to do to convince a cross section of the people that his idea to transmogrify Russia into an economic superpower isn’t a pipedream.

The world saw this coming. The Russians did too, and not many could change much. Putin is President again, except that the world is a bit different from the one he handed over the Dmitry Medvedev to manage for the time being.

Russia will be pulled in all directions, from Iran, China to the USA. On a relatively lesser scale, the faces and the political idiosyncrasies on the African continent are gradually changing as well, and the expectation is that very soon it will require practical bargaining chips to do business on the continent.

The axis of the global economy shifted dramatically in 2008, and since the financial meltdown, every country is racing to self-reliance and limited dependency. Russia will have to open itself to outside pressures and influence to keep its economic ambitions alive, and for that to happen the country will have to be willing play fair on the big stage. Case in point, Iran.

My point? The Putin mystique may require a bit more fine-tuning and substance to navigate an increasingly demanding citizenry, and resource-constrained world. According to reliable sources, Putin dreams of a Russia growing at 6-7% a year, compared to the 4% that has become the new normal for Moscow. If that works, or even if he gets close to his target, he might see a lot more white flags celebrating his re-arrival than protests urging him to apply for early retirement.

It is worth mentioning that there are many around the world who won’t expect any dramatic changes from the new-Putin, simply because he never went away in 2008 anyway. Sure, Dmitry Medvedev was president for the past 4 years, but you will be hard-pressed to find too many people who didn’t see Putin’s handwriting on every decision. For now, that’s neither here nor there.

Just as in Hollywood blockbusters, sequels always promise to be better than the original. Trouble is, it’s no easy task. If the plot is the same as before, no one is mesmerized and the audience wants their money back. If the plot is any different from the original, it better be good. For President Putin, the show just began, and it’s time to stand and deliver.

Senegal – Through a Film Darkly

2012-02-22T11:02:00.000-06:00

Welcome to African politics; - the more things change the more some stay the same.

Senegalese president, 85 year-old Abdoulaye Wade has been in power since 2000, and wants another term. The only problem is that Senegal’s constitution only allows 2 terms for any individual to hold the nation’s highest office, so the only strategy left for Wade is to find a loophole.

Where none exists, trust a desperate politician to create one. His basic argument is that the term limits were enacted while he was in office so he should be exempted. Even more surprising, - the Constitutional Council approves it.

Only in Africa.

It comes as no surprise that the Senegalese are taking to the streets in protest and perhaps justifiable anger directed toward the Wade government. The opposition groups, notably the Mouvement 23, are bent on making sure Abdoulaye Wade plays by the same rules.

If after 12 years in power Senegal didn’t see any promise for sustainable economic reforms, where is the counter argument to suggest that Abdoulaye Wade will do anything different? The nicest [diplomatic] word to describe this unfolding drama in Dakar is “unfortunate.”

I don’t want to pretend to know anything more about politics in Senegal than we all see and hear on BBC reports, but there are some stories that you don’t even need a high school diploma to read between the lines.

The interesting coincidence, however, is that in not too far away Russia, my buddy Vladimir Putin managed to “tweak” the constitutional parameters to make him eligible to be president, again. Wade may have seen this stunt, and is perhaps dreaming of taking a page from Putin’s blueprint. Lest we forget, Putin pulled this off long before the Arab Spring gave ordinary citizens a surefire blueprint to oust [supposed] power-hungry leaders, and the complicated political terrain in Russia is nowhere near Senegal’s.

For now, it is sad to see the country remain tense and on edge, but one would hope Abdoulaye Wade, an 85-year old guy who’s been in power over a decade, will put his country first and not stain the peaceful landscape that the Senegalese faithful have managed to paint since the country’s independence in 1960.

One wrong move, and Abdoulaye Wade will be resetting the clock backwards, - 50 years of peace and solidarity would have gone down the drain.

Unfortunate, indeed.

Collective Action for Corrective Measures

2012-02-21T10:11:00.000-06:00

I have to admit to waking up every now and then wondering what else happened to Greece. The country reminds most people of a horrible movie that the only reason you keep watching is because the cinema already yanked the last $12 bucks out of our wallet, and so you only hope the movie gets better.

The European Union is still scrounging for any panacea, bailout after bailout in the hopes that sooner or later, the country’s corrective measures will kick in. Europe can’t afford to let Greece default on the upcoming bond payment. Well, they could have the first time around but that is the nature of stop gap measures; - once you are invested too deep in any crisis, the cost of exit becomes just as steep as the cost to plough unchartered waters.

The Greeks had made it abundantly clear that they are not particularly in favor of austerity measures and remain confident [not sure of the basis for such assurance] that the market factors will tilt in its favor sooner or later.

We are learning that Greece was expected to maintain an escrow account with enough cash to cover nine to twelve months worth of debt. The simple idea here was for the country to prove its saving enough “rainy day” reserves to not drag the whole of Europe through the mud it finds itself in.

The fact remains, the only surefire way for Greece stay afloat is to reduce spending, but that is not the easiest proposition in the short term.

Pardon my being an eternal optimist, but for now, although the evidence suggest Greece and the European Union are almost “slow dancing in a burning room”, there is a glimmer of hope that the European Central Bank can help restructure the Greek debt, and not undermine its own stability.

My point is, regardless of the intended impacts of the supposed new legislation in the works, the collective action might be the only source of comfort for Europe. The rest of the union is vested too deeply in the Greek outcome to watch the country fall apart, and perhaps drag the EU along.

Back to my movie analogy, - some movies get worse before they get better; others get even worse and more painful the longer you watch, and not even the hypnotizing smell of popcorn can save the disappointment.

For Greece, no one is really sure how this movie will end, so it still has time to fix the plot, and I sure hope the twists and turns in the past 6 months lead somewhere.

Big Trouble for Little China – A Warning for All

2012-02-17T15:35:00.000-06:00

Anyone who knows anything about globalization swore that the Chinese will be the eternal beneficiaries of globalization. The sheer size of the Chinese economy and the tight gripped [and tight lipped] leadership were two powerful reasons for many onlookers to assume that the Chinese would always find a way to squeeze its labor to produce at near-zero wages.

It worked, - it still works - but perhaps not for too long. For that simple logic, it was next to impossible to fathom any viable competitor to the Chinese case on the global markets.

I will go on record to suggest that India is making a strong case to the contrary, and the Chinese, for the first time in a long time, have something to worry about.

Of course the last time any of us [outsiders] had a glimpse of Chinese manufacturing camps, we saw images of several hundreds of people crammed into tight spaces and seemingly working their lives away for multinationals raking in the big bucks.

Migrant workers worked for “peanuts” multinationals cashed in, and most people went home happy. So how did India manage to offset this equilibrium?

India offered even cheaper labor, an open and relatively transparent economy, and a society that is bent on investing in human capital to compete with the developed world.

India had the same numbers advantage, - the World Bank database pegs its population at 1,170,938,000 (approximately 1.2 billion). Compare that to China’s 1,338,299,500 (approximately 1.3billion) and it’s not hard to see how the previously unfathomable Chinese advantage is quickly eroding.

Many economic experts will even go so far to suggest that China’s “ride of the economic boom” is over, and that India’s competition will force the country to reevaluate its real competitive advantages. I agree, to a large extent. For instance, the same internet censorship and alleged human right abuses, to which China once upon a time could answer “no comment” and get away with, will no longer be the case. It will be forced to play fair or be forced out of the game in the long run.

The very nature of globalization suggests that unless a country is willing to play by a far-reaching set of rules, it cannot afford to reap wide-ranging benefits forever. Sooner or later a better alternative will emerge and force all sides of the market to rethink the playing field. This is a trend, not a blip.

For developed countries like the US however, many still yearn for a return to the “good ol’ days” of pure manufacturing. Sure, “making something” is the only sustainable economic backbone, at least that we know of. There was a school of thought that China’s loss in manufacturing will spark the return of manufacturing jobs back to the US, but if these trends are any indication of economic realities, China’s loss will be India’s gain, - end of story.

What’s my point?

I am with President Obama when he pushes for a rebirth of “Made in the USA”, as he did in the State of Union address, and most recently at the Master Lock factory in Milwaukee.

Gradually the US and many developed countries (thanks to globalization) turned to service-based economies and left the “dirty work” to countries where cheap labor and minimum regulations made business sense. Turning back the hands of time will require much more effort and time, and a boatload of ingenuity.

I have a funny feeling the “assembly line” days are long gone, and will never come back. Manufacturing however, will [or may] come back to the US for other reasons that affect a company’s bottom-line, but perhaps not in the same proportions as we saw in Detroit in the days of the Ford Model T.

The name of the game is simple, - adapt or die.

If there is any consolation for my friends here in the US who blames the Chinese migrant workers for stealing our manufacturing jobs, the Indians are leveraging technology and human capital, not just playing the numbers game. And they are winning.

My guess, therefore, is that everyone can be a beneficiary of globalization and international trade, but it boils down to a fundamental idea of constantly redefining ones competitive advantage or be left in the cold.

Just a thought.

Syria: Another Road to Perdition?

2012-02-10T13:57:00.000-06:00

The crisis in Damascus is heading quickly to the lowest point for a government that has managed to play both sides of the fence for a decade, and made some high profile international friends in the process.

Insiders from the Middle East will be quick to point out all the promise Assad came to power with, and how quickly they all faded as his government repeatedly ignored international caution to rampant domestic abuses. It was slippery slope, and sooner or later, the iron fists have to unravel. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad must have seen this coming. If he didn’t, he has himself to blame.

In the not too distant past, Assad took over from his father with promise of making Syria the envy of the Middle East, and at least usher a new wind of pragmatic political changes to the country. All that seems like a long time ago, and now the images coming out of Syria are no different from what we’ve seen in past year from the unrests in Libya or Egypt. Arab Spring 2.0, maybe.

Again, Assad has himself to blame, and the trend in recent years has been his stockpiling more enemies than friends. If the Tunisia protests taught us anything, it is the fact that when ordinary citizens take a stand against any measure of oppression, even the most entrenched political propagandas of modern history will have to rethink its course.

For now, the Syrian government is meeting protests with force, people dying every day and many more documenting the heavy-handed military crackdown.

From what I know, Syria was kicked out of the Arab League some time last year, and most students of foreign policy seem to think Syria has gone rogue. Of course, the government blames insurgents and “non-patriotic” citizens joining forces with foreign terrorists to destabilize his otherwise peaceful country. Even Ghaddafi used the old “insurgents from within” line, and we all know where his defiance landed him.

This is not an indictment on the Middle East as whole, but the fact that neighbors like Jordan and Turkey, and the Arab League have come out to express their displeasure with such verve is ample reason for Assad’s government to take a long hard look at its response to demonstrators before it decorates itself with embarrassment, assuming it hasn’t already.

The old cliché may work here for Syria, - “never too late to do the right thing.”

Or perhaps it already is.

Keystone XL - A Matter of “when”, not “if”

2012-02-03T11:17:00.005-06:00

Ask any American to choose between depending on Canada or Iran for oil supply, and you will be hard-pressed to find one person who will choose the latter. That sentiment was long before International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) raised its concerns over Iran's nuclear program.

The Middle East does not promise to be any less uncertain anytime soon, and it is no surprise the Chinese are diving heads first into Africa as a backup strategy. For America, Canada is a much better alternative and it still baffles some that it had taken this long to get to this point.

Of course there are environment al concerns that no one is suggesting turning a blind eye to, but pretending we can survive the next decade without oil supply from outside sources is delirious at best.

One storyline that is brewing in the background [and certainly flying under the radar] is the boost for rail transport for the same oil supply, if this XL pipeline falls through.

I am not sure how that becomes a viable game changer to the original TransCanada proposition, but it certainly gives the opposition a louder voice and another sticking point for environmentalists groups to state their case.

The deal breaker [or so it seems] has been the pipeline’s route through the “ecologically sensitive Sand Hills region of Nebraska”, home to the Ogallala aquifer. The real trick here will be finding an alternate route or solution that avoids Sand Hills.

In the interim, TransCanada plans to reapply for a permit to build its Keystone XL pipeline from Cushing, Oklahoma to the Gulf of Mexico coast. According to what I read [in the Upstream Newspaper], the US State Department claimed the project “was not in the national interest.” Of course there are valid arguments to be made on both sides.

Why then do will I jump on the ledge to say it’s a matter of “when”, not “if”?
Whether or not I am in favor or against the pipeline's construction is irrelevant, - the facts still remain.

It boils down to fundamental economics and the theory of demand and supply. Very soon the country will have to make tradeoffs and practical decisions with minimal self-serving agendas. Any instability in the Middle East [or even a perceived one] is recipe to shift the national interest curve, much the same way demand curves shift when consumer appetite for necessities change.
But this scenario is just my best guess, I have to add.

If then, TransCanada has a workable solution, one that appeases even a slim majority of the stakeholders; it may gain some key advocates on its side, [although I doubt they will be willing to sit on White House lawns to make their point].

For now, Keystone XL is a pipedream. . almost literally.

The End of Facebook. . . as we know it

2012-02-01T13:02:00.002-06:00

Mark Zuckerberg and Facebook are not going away anytime soon. Sooner or later, however, the social media trendsetting company that took center stage and played by its own rules will be forced to march to a different tune.

Facebook will very soon be a public company, after is successfully sale the Initial Public Offering (IPO) that reshaped the ownership landscape.

Mark and his buddies may not have nearly as much fun, and the creative latitude may dwindle, but is fair to say that the company will not embark on any fundamental shifts that will open the door for MySpace of Google+ to bite into its market share.

I have to say this - and no marketing agent paid me to say this - people falling off Facebook and closing their accounts its more about sheer boredom and the very nature of limited shelf life for social network platforms, than it is about any economic value of Facebook.

Either way Zuckerberg will cash in, and perhaps cash out,- the man has every right to do as he wishes. But for the rest of the mere mortals whose daily lives hover around the social media site, and cannot even breathe without updating their status, or spend the employer’s precious time on Farmville, it’s only a matter of time before the monthly $9.99 fee kicks in. There are reports of some Facebook investors selling their shares privately, and that brings to mind the unpredictable nature of internet stocks.
Les we forget, Facebook made Barack Obama president of the USA, toppled Ghadaffi and Mubarrak in Libya and Egypt, and single-handedly made both Sarah Palin and Kim Kardashian famous. Sometimes all good things end, and especially so for internet start-ups - suddenly the music stops, the bubble bursts and whoever cashes in first is the smartest man in the room.

After last week’s announcement that Apple has trumped ExxonMobil as the world’s most profitable company, Facebook lovers can sleep tonight knowing that an IPO will not crash the network platform. The network will have to refine its business model but I have a feeling it will survive without any bruises.

After a successful IPO however, Facebook will have to listen to more than just Zuckerberg and his closest confidants. Any nut-job with significant shares in the company will have a voice, and if Yahoo’s internal crisis served any purpose, it was to remind us that all IPO’s come with a price, - some a little more impactful than others.

Last Man Standing . . . sort of

2012-01-30T13:28:00.000-06:00

Anytime I watch the Republican presidential debate, or listen to the bickering that has turned into a media spectacle, I can’t help but wonder what any of the 4 remaining contenders will say to sway Americans against Obama in November.

Even among Republicans, you can imagine the tune that runs through many minds is the band U2’s hit song “I still haven’t found what I m looking for.”

Sooner or later, the Party will have to pick one of the “final 4”, and inasmuch many yearned for a more charismatic candidate, the Republican party will have to stick with the field it has been dealt. Chris Christie may have been a relatively pragmatic straight-shooter to mount a formidable campaign against the Obama machine, but many hard-line Republicans didn’t jump on the Christie train because he was a bit too moderate for their liking. Along the same lines however, Romney may be a bit “too rich” for some independents voters to connect with, and too stiff for Republicans, especially going toe-to-toe with an Obama who sings Al Green songs at White House press conferences. So Mitt Romney, as skillful and smart as he is [no denying that] still have to battle the stigma of being too out-of-touch for many independent voters.

Ron Paul is Ron Paul. He will oppose everything and want freedom for everything. He is like the uncle you stopped inviting to family events because you know he will be there regardless, - no invitation necessary. And while he is there, he will speak his mind, even if no one is listening. Young people admire him because he gets their disdain for politics, although not enough to win their vote. Veterans adore him, although they know it will take more than social awareness campaign of the veteran plight to affect real policies.

Enter Rick Santorum, Most people have no clue who he is, and that is not a sentiment you change in 9 months to become president of the USA. Many are floating the idea that he is still in the race to ensure Gingrich doesn’t make a last minute game changer.

If Gingrich wins, the Obama guys will be pulling out the same blueprint that wiped out John McCain in 2008. We all know how that turned out for the old guy, the Washington insider, and the lifetime politician. Lest we forget, Gingrich is too unpredictable for Tea Party contingent.

One thing we know for certain is that the GOP will have to nominate and support a candidate sooner than later, and a win for Mitt Romney may be the end of a carousel that saw memorable moments like Herman Cain’s 999 policy, Rick Perry’s memory lapses, and Michele Bachman’s quest to be the second coming of Sarah Palin.

I have a feeling the Republican debates and war of words will drag on for a few more weeks, all of which gives President Obama more time to align the stars. So far, the president has sat back and enjoyed the ride; watched Republicans air their dirty laundry against each other. More importantly, he has enjoyed the added benefit if refining his answers for “failed promises” and an economic upturn just in time.

Tomorrow’s primary election Florida could be a game changer for all candidates, but if the outcome is as unpredictable as any of my buddy Herman Cain’s predictions, America will be in for a long election ride. Republicans on the other hand may be left grooving to John Mayer’s hit “Slow Dancing in a Burning Room.”

The Cost of Iran Oil Embargo

2012-01-26T10:09:00.004-06:00

Sooner or later Iran will get the memo. President Ahmadinejad is bent on holding his ground in the face of a myriad of international sanctions being lashed out at the Middle Eastern country. It often doesn’t take much for even the most hard-line leaders to feel the pinch of an embargo.

The only twist here is that Iran is betting on a potential global oil crisis as the deterrent to any real international pressure. Furthermore, from Iran’s point of view, demand for oil will exist elsewhere [Asia]; hence any shortfalls from US and EU will be offset by Asia’s growing demand.

For starters, oil prices rose above $110 right after the European Union jumped on the “sanction train” against Iran. The United States already stated its position on grinding Iran into submission, and at least the Obama administration is making it a priority to reduce America’s reliance on foreign oil supply. Shale gas and natural gas will fill some of the void – understandably so - but unless there is a real energy game changer like the Keystone XL (currently wrangling through a political tug of war), countries like Iran will always have a voice in the matter.

The EU stance was critical especially since it is Iran's second-largest oil customer after China. However, the Chinese march to an entirely different tune, and so no one should be counting on them to abandon Iran anytime in this century.

For all the reasons above, we can expect the impact of the restrictions and embargo to affect market forces, with basic demand and supply curves shifting towards countries that can bear bilateral pressure, and for those whose economy cannot afford a reduction in oil supply.

Lest we forget, Iran is very aware of its key chess piece in this drama, - the Strait of Hormuz. Last week, it threatened to disrupt the activities of strategically important strait between the Gulf of Oman in and the Persian Gulf. It is the only sea route for large petroleum-exporting tankers and a potential choke point the world cannot afford.

At the end of the day, it helps to focus on the big picture, and to know that the world is at a point of painful tradeoffs. No easy options. My point, - there is an old adage “when elephant go to war, it is the grass that suffers the most.” The rest of the world might feel the pinch at the gas pump soon enough, but will averting a nuclear drama from an unpredictable Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be enough of a consolation prize?

Prokhorov’s Gamble

2011-12-12T15:55:00.000-06:00

Americans can breathe a sigh of relief – at least it’s not the only country with politicians and politicians-wannabe jockeying for the top gig. Russia is the latest storyline to emerge, with

New Jersey Nets basketball team owner Mikhail Prokhorov declaring his intent to compete against Vladimir Putin, - the anointed one - next year.

For some odd reason, many people outside Moscow will think of this as a quasi-suicidal mission, especially in the face of all the constitutional hoops, aka reforms, that Putin had to go through to make himself eligible to run for the presidency. Of course the very fact that one man is powerful enough to supposedly realign the stars in his favor is ample reason for others to be concerned with what Russia is turning into.

The third richest man is taking on a risky proposition, and he knows it. The underlying assertion being that Russian politicians are so crooked and sinister that it wouldn’t be farfetched to frame Prokhorov in a criminal circus and lock him away in jail forever. I have to admit, the more “Mission Impossible” movies I watch, the more I believe anything is indeed possible in Moscow and the Kremlin. But that is Hollywood’s spin, - perhaps with no bearing whatsoever on the reality.

The real questions is, what will make the Russia’s third richest man worth an excess of $18 billion - decide to take on a such low-paying privacy-invading thankless job? I can’t imagine warren Buffet running for Mayor of Omaha, especially when he can simply blink and cause the world financial markets to panic.

If you ever thought the United States, Greece, Spain or even Italy has issues; Russia has enough drama to make Kim Kardashian jealous. Of course there is a huge anti-Putin faction across Russia and elsewhere in the world, and they will love nothing more than see anyone other than Dmitry Medvedev or Vladimir Putin get the gig. But Mikhail Prokhorov?

Just last week, Putin's party was hit from all sides in the parliamentary elections, and many people are beginning to see windows of opportunity for a viable contender to emerge. Russian politics is shrouded in its own brand of conspiracy theories and suspicion, but it will take a little more than sheer popularity to outlast the Putin engine. He didn’t earn the nickname “the anointed one” for playing chess and shaking hands.

On a much lighter note, if I was Russian, I will like to see how Prokhorov win over Orlando Magic star Dwight Howard to the New Jersey Nets, before he earns any “street cred” for a deal maker.

Mikhail Prokhorov is taking a big gamble, but the Russians may be taking an even bigger gamble if there is no formidable contender in Moscow to face off with Putin. Someone has to do it, why not Mikhail Prokhorov?

World Aids Day - Getting to Zero

2011-12-01T10:52:00.000-06:00

There is a good reason why December 1st of every year is World AIDS Day. Fair to say, it is far from a celebration; but rather an important reminder there is still a lot more to be done - individually and collectively - in the face of one disease that has flipped the world on it head.

Thanks to advancements in science and technology, [plus all the often “corny” public awareness messages] perhaps the massage is hitting home.

Increased access to treatment is the centerpiece of the fight against HIV/Aids, but there is certainly no substitute for individual responsibility.

A trip down memory lane. . . a decade ago, the mere mention of the disease sent chills down many spines and forced people to reevaluate their own actions,- sexually, that is. The rest of us were urged to get tested, “know your status”, and by all means advised to act responsibly. Back then the fear of death was enough to force a social consciousness and awakening.

Fast-forward to 2011, - momentum has fizzled and the only people who seem to care about HIV/Aids are the people living with HIV/Aids. Human memory is fickle, and sooner or later, even fear fizzles.

My point? We cannot afford to forget. Collectively, we do not have the luxury of toning down the public awareness messages and flaming the stereotypes .

World AIDS Day this year is about "Getting to Zero." Zero New HIV Infections. Zero Discrimination and Zero AIDS-Related Deaths.

Aggressive? Sure. Optimistic? You bet. Unrealistic? Well, the UN can’t put a bullet to anyone’s head to manage his/her actions. There are some elements that can be monitored and managed, - AIDS-related maternal deaths, and universal access to antiretroviral therapy for people living with HIV, among others. When it comes down to individuals however, all anyone can do is to hope and encourage society to not lose sight of the risks and reality.

The world is a long way from “Zero”, but it certainly doesn’t hurt to dream of “Getting” there.

Spread the word. Get tested.

Most importantly, act responsibly.

The Sum of All Fears. .

2011-11-29T12:29:00.000-06:00

I saw this train coming down the tracks long ago. I didn’t need a high school diploma to make economic predictions, at least in the face of the drama in Euroland.

Sooner or later the European Union was going to turn East. Unless you’ve been happily hiding under a rock, everyone knows that with Greece and Italy dragging the rest of Europe along into its economic mess, it was only a matter of time before they went to the one source they would rather avoid. China, that is.

Knocking on China’s door comes with strings attached, and that is where anyone will imagine Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel scratching their chins.

Every economic historian will point out that China’s rise to stardom occurred through some radical reforms and not-so-admirable antics. The West spent the past 50 years criticizing the Chinese for their disregard for individual freedoms and many aspects of free enterprise. The Chinese didn’t budge, haven’t budged and with the global financial landscape heading to hell in a hand basket, the Chinese are unlikely to rethink their strategy. The only trouble is that the Chinese economic landscape is riddled with humanitarian landmines, well documented and criticized.

China is the largest holder of foreign currency reserves in the world with more than $3 trillion in its secret stash. Even more, the Chinese economy is growing fast, whiles others are still struggling to make sense of debts and fiscal mismanagement. With Europe begging for salvation from Beijing, the Chinese have every right to think “who’s laughing now?”

The United States in their part has done well by hooking its economic engine to the Chinese train. That’s a conversation worth its own blog, but at least it still maintained its dignity and leverage with market size and spending power. The African countries hitched onto this train long ago. The EU will do anything at this juncture to save the lingering gloom.

Not so fast. . .

You can bet Chinese President Hu Jintao will be asking what’s “in it” for him. It’s one thing bailing out a wobbly company, or even a country. It’s an entirely different ball game trying to nudge a trade bloc or customs union to act. While China will be the logical savior of the European crisis, there is still a school of thought that feared this day.

Of course there are many people who dislike that thought of the world sitting at China’s feet. The world can only whine, bark and cry at any geopolitical or economic issues it crosses hairs with, - but can’t do “diddly squat” about it. That’s the crux of the fear but the West has itself to blame, but perhaps the West has had its time to bask in the sun.

The next decade promises to be interesting and tricky, but one thing we know for certain is that the sun will be rising from the East.