tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-100197042026-04-10T00:20:34.075+01:00Stock Market Commentary by Dr. Declan Fallon; est. Jan 8th 2005Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comBlogger4596125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-21785403156989511162026-04-09T23:49:00.003+01:002026-04-09T23:49:54.747+01:00<p>If you a follower of JC Parets you would be looking at a (very) bullish market outlook. I would be more cautious, but today's action has done much to negate some of the lingering bearishness from yesterday. However, markets in a trading range should be considered neutral until all-time highs are breached, but long term investors can accumulate.</p> <p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) gapped higher yesterday, but closed with a bearish black candlestick. However, today's buying managed to createa a bullish engulfing pattern to negate the bearish black candlestick. In addition, yesterday's gap created an "island reversal" which is a significant (bullish) reversal pattern. Note, this gap can't close for the pattern to be true. Technicals are improving with a 'buy' trigger in stochastics to match earlier ones in On-Balance-Volume and MACD.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnfNLRTkUAZwQc9mT-ttQlvVdyxVw4Um41fnLy93aDkR0CFWMPNfDqUja1Zsu1zE5AZDIW-Jq5rXB2A8fNeScGfW6fbnceHSLj-86hBWKIWBDwm1dcMmyZMNfqOEYKXVuIQPLxzuuKc15ctKekDkM4yhTNJzKFC45PNl7RwX9-Y72tdXqi1vma/s1600/iwm_sep9b.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnfNLRTkUAZwQc9mT-ttQlvVdyxVw4Um41fnLy93aDkR0CFWMPNfDqUja1Zsu1zE5AZDIW-Jq5rXB2A8fNeScGfW6fbnceHSLj-86hBWKIWBDwm1dcMmyZMNfqOEYKXVuIQPLxzuuKc15ctKekDkM4yhTNJzKFC45PNl7RwX9-Y72tdXqi1vma/s1600/iwm_sep9b.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>The S&P gapped past 200-day MA and today closed above its 50-day MA, but tomorrow will come up against declining resistance defined by the series of mini-swing highs from January/February. Technicals saw a new 'buy' signal in stochastics.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBpqhzkI6gL1M3nEELMXrEFt4TaK1OqADiPh-QkXRo9rt0xw7QI0lk2kWJ3_9flZr-chSm_XPRmdU3iVR2N3d3ladEYrXTSzPAHZstxvRWGZfgYs_nyqxDMybwSsXvXZh4CMmQhks2eL-UDyxXqtUhgVjY3Oh-CdiOVJyDF7zVGRXhWPqFSj_8/s1600/spx_apr9.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBpqhzkI6gL1M3nEELMXrEFt4TaK1OqADiPh-QkXRo9rt0xw7QI0lk2kWJ3_9flZr-chSm_XPRmdU3iVR2N3d3ladEYrXTSzPAHZstxvRWGZfgYs_nyqxDMybwSsXvXZh4CMmQhks2eL-UDyxXqtUhgVjY3Oh-CdiOVJyDF7zVGRXhWPqFSj_8/s1600/spx_apr9.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The Nasdaq also finished with a bearish 'black' candlestick on Wednesday, but managed to negate that today with a bullish engulfing pattern today. Today's action also retained a close above its 50-day MA along with a close above the stochastic mid-line.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnRpeKZiphUMOSuI7MN_mXGIT9uguH8DMzGcrKW40xC-tSVMfHszKKXRyabO_v3YEnrYwUM212vIQJ3_AdhcHjIWzpDsvn_nZKt8GZpAGcUUYjPF60fALJl4pj-2L-BwIpg-6dYcjBbxqx-_dlhtRfuqaxR5BF1-So6A87uInICfpiWU2Ek6h7/s1600/compq_apr9.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnRpeKZiphUMOSuI7MN_mXGIT9uguH8DMzGcrKW40xC-tSVMfHszKKXRyabO_v3YEnrYwUM212vIQJ3_AdhcHjIWzpDsvn_nZKt8GZpAGcUUYjPF60fALJl4pj-2L-BwIpg-6dYcjBbxqx-_dlhtRfuqaxR5BF1-So6A87uInICfpiWU2Ek6h7/s1600/compq_apr9.png"/></a></div> <p>Bitcoin managed to keep its bullish rally intact, but now does so on net bullish technicals.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhC4giUP87Lg8uClNkwhR4ZYkzxmnj44SBlh75P7HoDNuXv-PATjVShVGUrhGbn8KDTbPjRwjBLQg5rZgFBsatGnvJfzxNWxxeyqHcQbbxR7jXDcs3cPdntRuHGVwteKXHzmQLiIXiwWIFkZzEapODHU3UgKHUnOqt8U4JuTUKUIV-Oeod1rAll/s1600/btcusd_apr9.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhC4giUP87Lg8uClNkwhR4ZYkzxmnj44SBlh75P7HoDNuXv-PATjVShVGUrhGbn8KDTbPjRwjBLQg5rZgFBsatGnvJfzxNWxxeyqHcQbbxR7jXDcs3cPdntRuHGVwteKXHzmQLiIXiwWIFkZzEapODHU3UgKHUnOqt8U4JuTUKUIV-Oeod1rAll/s1600/btcusd_apr9.png"/></a></div> <p>However, the Semiconductor Index managed a new breakout that does mark itself as a new bull market on net bullish technicals.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAeD4D1MZP7SsvrKh-dDlfUk7UFhsv95weFCcByPt8jkbOr0BV_Fw4wm3miuOCM2Iw5SJPRFLZt0nTtcCyIPXzmKh-dn_HNTBkwUQ_cQ_NM9FKkUu9Q52zjAyJza0fixMazb77phIGJ9udx23gJI5-nfAndczLgwVLjrSqUJya848Ay9Ks_Vl1/s1600/sox_apr9.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAeD4D1MZP7SsvrKh-dDlfUk7UFhsv95weFCcByPt8jkbOr0BV_Fw4wm3miuOCM2Iw5SJPRFLZt0nTtcCyIPXzmKh-dn_HNTBkwUQ_cQ_NM9FKkUu9Q52zjAyJza0fixMazb77phIGJ9udx23gJI5-nfAndczLgwVLjrSqUJya848Ay9Ks_Vl1/s1600/sox_apr9.png"/></a></div> <p>For tomorrow, we want to ensure today's gains are not undercut by any selling. A consolidation doji, or equivalent, would perhaps be the best outcome outside of another day's gain. It's just hard, given the state of the Iranian ceasefire, that tomorrow will deliver another bullish day.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-73809353921091146832026-04-07T22:38:00.002+01:002026-04-07T22:38:43.881+01:00<p>So we have markets coming to (or just beyond) resistance and a Trump deadline for Iran. Consequently, we are in position to see a sizable move tomorrow. Those markets that have broken resistance are signalling towards a positive outcome (or perhaps, a kick-the-can deadline for Iran). But if news is bad and we gap away from resistance, then many markets will be back at 200-day MAs.</p> <p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) is approaching converged resistance from $255, declining resistance and 50-day MA. Today's buying was on low volume, but counts as relative "accumulation" and marks itself as a possible bottom breakout.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQYLI7DzfiG57WEhgiIHlET9zbTg_fp-iidhrkM4gKCbIhYTWKWBr8OTPbjROJCIOqu_mrD5GGtPLXUt6upQpFIE-4Gn77uH9oTBKZ-dKlnkF0tKFHzHX8xIO41KucdRhL-dy8QBRbOOUnSp0HFmo_HflqTwXTNLILaD38RQbqfuWC2uZ-gf0D/s1600/iwm_apr7.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQYLI7DzfiG57WEhgiIHlET9zbTg_fp-iidhrkM4gKCbIhYTWKWBr8OTPbjROJCIOqu_mrD5GGtPLXUt6upQpFIE-4Gn77uH9oTBKZ-dKlnkF0tKFHzHX8xIO41KucdRhL-dy8QBRbOOUnSp0HFmo_HflqTwXTNLILaD38RQbqfuWC2uZ-gf0D/s1600/iwm_apr7.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>The S&P breakout included a MACD trigger and On-Balance-Volume 'buy'. Today's bullish 'hammer' marked buyer interest on the retest of support. If there is bad news from Iran then we need to consider the possibility of a 'bull trap', and with the index below the 200-day MA it could prove to be an ugly day. Note the measured move targets (red arrow).</p> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQLu5NeFvPAkamUke1gFShjZHy_vMswDNU0H7rxjrbjgB9M31xblD-HyiORbyhyphenhyphenaSLpyyHGomUYVrZ5SCgPPFrtdQu8bDko4oymoztYW-5EaoSXYsZoYO9GjgbY9F5vlj4s_PrK4GCc5W4aR_aRu9vRbo09EGQY8KynEczKz6LHvsXDTQqMmYB/s1600/spx_apr7.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQLu5NeFvPAkamUke1gFShjZHy_vMswDNU0H7rxjrbjgB9M31xblD-HyiORbyhyphenhyphenaSLpyyHGomUYVrZ5SCgPPFrtdQu8bDko4oymoztYW-5EaoSXYsZoYO9GjgbY9F5vlj4s_PrK4GCc5W4aR_aRu9vRbo09EGQY8KynEczKz6LHvsXDTQqMmYB/s1600/spx_apr7.png"/></a></div> <p>The Nasdaq finished bang on resistance in what could be a picture perfect short. We have intermediate stochastics back on the midline, with price at declining resistance and 20-day MA, with the 200-day MA overhead, and a 50-day MA moving towards a "death cross". On the bullish side, we have MACD and On-Balance-Volume 'buy' triggers, on higher volume accucumulation, and bullish 'hammer', but a single day's selling on bad news is likely to undercut the 'hammer' low. Buyer beware.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_O4zKrRQr9nLX45vafFhiHZifZ5f8vyRELaVK3vBk3ZHIiTvtRpy1ExuueBp14nLC6uXgqaXyLD-b3ssb1NVIWzmqL7rf1E7KsB_HKECJgDs81d7XM_FFOyozyZbvMV6o4m46simBwJVFz3fWkl0eZJfTGQjFiBHybxwPMjv40FEYQr28PXYy/s1600/compq_apr7.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_O4zKrRQr9nLX45vafFhiHZifZ5f8vyRELaVK3vBk3ZHIiTvtRpy1ExuueBp14nLC6uXgqaXyLD-b3ssb1NVIWzmqL7rf1E7KsB_HKECJgDs81d7XM_FFOyozyZbvMV6o4m46simBwJVFz3fWkl0eZJfTGQjFiBHybxwPMjv40FEYQr28PXYy/s1600/compq_apr7.png"/></a></div> <p>Bitcoin has edged higher, but we are still awaiting the acceleration from the development of a right-hand-base. But the longer this basing goes on, the better long term investment this becomes, even if this asset reacts negatively to Iranian news.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgO-xC3fljSsQD4KZoXY_8sbeCCuFoBY_LV-DQnjID3xnb_6D4ATvEwsfe9cipYVXXG9KSTEgroYGxRMlAt4Lz30lKqg8B2O4kiVFnifQW21acWtY9FQuar_XOwah2jE6gV3dNkMuRiQuCX_UBQZEnk0JfhvikwNbbYnBM2zFXsllvAQPwlKwbj/s1600/btcusd_apr7.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgO-xC3fljSsQD4KZoXY_8sbeCCuFoBY_LV-DQnjID3xnb_6D4ATvEwsfe9cipYVXXG9KSTEgroYGxRMlAt4Lz30lKqg8B2O4kiVFnifQW21acWtY9FQuar_XOwah2jE6gV3dNkMuRiQuCX_UBQZEnk0JfhvikwNbbYnBM2zFXsllvAQPwlKwbj/s1600/btcusd_apr7.png"/></a></div> <p>The Dow Jones Industrial is at its 200-day MA with a series of spike lows denoting demand, although technicals are more bearish. On positive news, the 'bear trap' is well established and is typically a strong reversal signal. So, even if there is sell off tomorrow, it would take a few days worth of weakness to negate the 'bear trap'.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyO2qNRlvBOTtHyNQcX62CYjyeiGeGS2vPVJqQoMqV-qe6VRn3LHt9Mk8Xg-2m_InF3JYDA0-qpjr2Y9lsl6B8mD8FCy1UQeTU5vB62CpvNCxGPE_QlDpdNY9IiCUbK1xok6QevVxDtwgb-XoQ5xN-zS8iGuDL7m9Nrvq84lng6Iz4igI2GCfi/s1600/indu_apr7.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyO2qNRlvBOTtHyNQcX62CYjyeiGeGS2vPVJqQoMqV-qe6VRn3LHt9Mk8Xg-2m_InF3JYDA0-qpjr2Y9lsl6B8mD8FCy1UQeTU5vB62CpvNCxGPE_QlDpdNY9IiCUbK1xok6QevVxDtwgb-XoQ5xN-zS8iGuDL7m9Nrvq84lng6Iz4igI2GCfi/s1600/indu_apr7.png"/></a></div> <p>We will know in the next few hours what Trump has in store for Iran, but for markets, the S&P Investor Survey suggests we are in a 2022 scenario that could see bearishness extend into this year's election.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9PGfPBmRO1ur7FdpHVIEXPpao4jStLxa8QbCoa3B9qhnRIC869kZ28LrpNkjYxpefkvsK9bEEYyzTnqfSZpuDIktrd6foRXHrN582kJ8qaCBMTme8Qy-PI0kmvfr-1hbLR0PGCsydFNGc8RrSVNCqzAS9CVBDqxImjspljYFxRxK8lXL8ox78/s1600/aaii_apr7.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="500" data-original-width="800" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9PGfPBmRO1ur7FdpHVIEXPpao4jStLxa8QbCoa3B9qhnRIC869kZ28LrpNkjYxpefkvsK9bEEYyzTnqfSZpuDIktrd6foRXHrN582kJ8qaCBMTme8Qy-PI0kmvfr-1hbLR0PGCsydFNGc8RrSVNCqzAS9CVBDqxImjspljYFxRxK8lXL8ox78/s1600/aaii_apr7.png"/></a></div> <p>Tik tok...</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-24437162339202496492026-04-05T22:11:00.004+01:002026-04-05T22:11:52.424+01:00<p>Markets swung back towards buyers, although there is plenty of work to do before we can call a rally. Best of the action was the S&P as it cleared declining resistance but has still to challenge its 20-day MA. There was a new 'buy' trigger in the MACD, but it's a very weak signal given the indicator is swimming below the MACD zero line.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEisgsPefpptS4hrLggD2DMXRFzB63Qfu0tlm3Pd_szWvwmusg9fvOCblrj9CKCw1h5FY1INfpnn7vqIx4koBPhdACutonwgHeVeekfi29foiJrjWhKNHocfuwCFclzJAN2uqkzB2pHDN1pdvi7toTN18_nlh4x0PszYmFpXzblPPqoyhs6rGHvI/s1600/spx_apr4.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEisgsPefpptS4hrLggD2DMXRFzB63Qfu0tlm3Pd_szWvwmusg9fvOCblrj9CKCw1h5FY1INfpnn7vqIx4koBPhdACutonwgHeVeekfi29foiJrjWhKNHocfuwCFclzJAN2uqkzB2pHDN1pdvi7toTN18_nlh4x0PszYmFpXzblPPqoyhs6rGHvI/s1600/spx_apr4.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) closed above it 20-day MA but still has to challenge more pertintent resistance from resistance highs. Having successfully defended its 200-day MA it now adds new 'buy' signals in On-Balance-Volume and MACD. The index also enjoys a relative perforance advantage over its peers.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuJ7WzOq2b6knGDj3aG1tFBReNrGBL3oN2dyjVD36k6KpJVAOlaRGLPJzX2IOKay5669NH7wmnTmTnFXBxpHX3SF-noyKtw_hyWTw5kgn0__kASSXt4tpDO8QV5uJSxvJN1q_s6y4lgy-I7q2L2sS9BP9lo6w7gOACVfay2ajcg0BjIheZeB0z/s1600/iwm_apr4.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuJ7WzOq2b6knGDj3aG1tFBReNrGBL3oN2dyjVD36k6KpJVAOlaRGLPJzX2IOKay5669NH7wmnTmTnFXBxpHX3SF-noyKtw_hyWTw5kgn0__kASSXt4tpDO8QV5uJSxvJN1q_s6y4lgy-I7q2L2sS9BP9lo6w7gOACVfay2ajcg0BjIheZeB0z/s1600/iwm_apr4.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The Nasdaq remains below range support and declining resistance. The past 3-days of buying was good with 'buy' triggers in the MACD and On-Balance-Volume, but was otherwise unchanged and is still bearish.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8575B9eOP4pF3F5xJ40kLlTeXNsEnp8fEpjYh2LEdWBqgweJO80PRvSJUP-9ZmmIdC5O0QkdrcFxcijJuQ1pTCNtFILLXvo10zmi13jqy9babqZC8-ok-wr4CWgowjolqnzmCAJVPS_n5xLFgs-Yeaa4EwWjTki5mExYU8kcuMgInM7rXAK4z/s1600/compq_may5.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8575B9eOP4pF3F5xJ40kLlTeXNsEnp8fEpjYh2LEdWBqgweJO80PRvSJUP-9ZmmIdC5O0QkdrcFxcijJuQ1pTCNtFILLXvo10zmi13jqy9babqZC8-ok-wr4CWgowjolqnzmCAJVPS_n5xLFgs-Yeaa4EwWjTki5mExYU8kcuMgInM7rXAK4z/s1600/compq_may5.png"/></a></div> <p>Bitcoin hasn't changed its picture either, but sides with bulls and is still a 'buying' opportunity for those looking for a trade. Technically, there was a 'buy' trigger in On-Balance-Volume and a potential 'buy' trigger in the MACD.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFzbNazeBao9SR4-JuGpVqFP3P2trgX7oIkMQ7f_p06qKCgiG2GKWCOHrNMiWP3hbpA_vIPK458oIfzIpJCxYI5zhLIe5b_oZXt9llAK1O8Xdv3a_4A3Z7dSNvE8DuuYDUFeOmeuC4sIVxShHF8hx2uHalho1QGo5yAPPiGxsxo1dNcjQvqsKX/s1600/btcusd_apr5.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFzbNazeBao9SR4-JuGpVqFP3P2trgX7oIkMQ7f_p06qKCgiG2GKWCOHrNMiWP3hbpA_vIPK458oIfzIpJCxYI5zhLIe5b_oZXt9llAK1O8Xdv3a_4A3Z7dSNvE8DuuYDUFeOmeuC4sIVxShHF8hx2uHalho1QGo5yAPPiGxsxo1dNcjQvqsKX/s1600/btcusd_apr5.png"/></a></div> <p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average successfully back-tested its breakout and defended the 20-day MA. Next is a move for a push above 47K. Supporting the breakout are 'buy' signals in the MACD and On-Balance-Volume, and is outperforming peer indices.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOP00yc-j16U_CC0xFiBoU5KQOz2GdVUAv1y75FG4wo-3qx617QCx_TkRxsqwI4T1x7aLkRLtuKZ4qq0gx7Ef6ZldL3-d00dlWartxv5J6YrQtM7pDAum1xOAsto6r-oVV5V-Bwdt3D6DcJ5QDvbV_ob4MbY-R9pZDaapZXFO-WGDuKdHX6Mz6/s1600/DJIA_apr5.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOP00yc-j16U_CC0xFiBoU5KQOz2GdVUAv1y75FG4wo-3qx617QCx_TkRxsqwI4T1x7aLkRLtuKZ4qq0gx7Ef6ZldL3-d00dlWartxv5J6YrQtM7pDAum1xOAsto6r-oVV5V-Bwdt3D6DcJ5QDvbV_ob4MbY-R9pZDaapZXFO-WGDuKdHX6Mz6/s1600/DJIA_apr5.png"/></a></div> <p>Indices that have posted gains over the past 3 days are unlikely to post a fourth, or at least, aren't worth a long trade. Bitcoin remains the best opportunity for longs. Shorts don't have a whole lot to work with - maybe the Nasdaq will offer a short on a test of 47K.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-45901840489265033422026-04-01T23:10:00.004+01:002026-04-01T23:10:59.435+01:00<p>The positivity generated by yesterday's buying found itself under pressure today as 'gravestone doji' and 'inverse hammers' dominated. The good news was that support from weekly charts held and there is enough of a gap to offer a few days of wiggle room before sellers return. The problem is we should see selling tomorrow if these candlesticks play to form. The bearishness of these candles is negated by a close above today's highs.</p> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) is perhaps the most vulnerable as it finished with the 'gravestone doji'. However, the recovery of the 200-day MA should give some grounds for optimism, and there were new 'buy' signals in the MACD and On-Balance-Volume. There appears to be a buyer around $243.75, so pay attention to volume action near this price level.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjA3tGuySQsKqf2ypwH89jihp4SJBWC_yuCI7zOc4zOAXaxA3AL_Wt_x-CWyAKzB5IuZ1Wex6pDPlEPpRDk6Wf1UAmbElK37tAHd1Sw8j6chglHr4GyVjx_GftYuSvVtYzUpxq_FC-ha4pl99NHeb4m3857zqmflwDTQwFBzi8dhrGg6g5cDuJa/s1600/iwm_apr1.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjA3tGuySQsKqf2ypwH89jihp4SJBWC_yuCI7zOc4zOAXaxA3AL_Wt_x-CWyAKzB5IuZ1Wex6pDPlEPpRDk6Wf1UAmbElK37tAHd1Sw8j6chglHr4GyVjx_GftYuSvVtYzUpxq_FC-ha4pl99NHeb4m3857zqmflwDTQwFBzi8dhrGg6g5cDuJa/s1600/iwm_apr1.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>The equal-weighted S&P tagged its 20-day MA on today's high, but technicals remain bearish. While it managed to recover its 200-day MA it's close enough to see another test as soon as tomorrow.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhlb40wiukmVGOou_-2nxPhsb0faKr_pX5JYuS-vsFtOIQxPAm8Hjv2zpM0NoaOkBq1vIuinLIXEA5BZ6sy4RZ0rEYleS0lI7POto9r1K4ljVdeItEdGSpMp3-pYMGwwEve80q5-hM978C5joRQTSDGOcitFJn4FY3xG-bYlwZlS-gvIhL2GsnX/s1600/spxew_apr1.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhlb40wiukmVGOou_-2nxPhsb0faKr_pX5JYuS-vsFtOIQxPAm8Hjv2zpM0NoaOkBq1vIuinLIXEA5BZ6sy4RZ0rEYleS0lI7POto9r1K4ljVdeItEdGSpMp3-pYMGwwEve80q5-hM978C5joRQTSDGOcitFJn4FY3xG-bYlwZlS-gvIhL2GsnX/s1600/spxew_apr1.png"/></a></div> <p>It had looked like the weighted S&P was about to deliver a resistance break and a possible 'bear trap'. There is still the potential for a 'bear trap', but it would need to maintain a close above 6,550 to do so; an intraday spike below this level would be acceptable.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXIpOFTBAzKrgdzCgGL_7qEEi36EhLaIJgc7r8NXJ0lUK7wG4eZ1Y7ESnbclXTsFcvj9FB2-Y76LJ5GKcog6yX3IWGsyX_sOPJ0hMWsJ2HSpVPme-ddc0z9Em0nDPhL7_Y3LXlDc2I1_xTdxHuXwvrWDLN7F6FthVHK0HpJwUQ3_ltHRiGpScU/s1600/spx_apr1.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXIpOFTBAzKrgdzCgGL_7qEEi36EhLaIJgc7r8NXJ0lUK7wG4eZ1Y7ESnbclXTsFcvj9FB2-Y76LJ5GKcog6yX3IWGsyX_sOPJ0hMWsJ2HSpVPme-ddc0z9Em0nDPhL7_Y3LXlDc2I1_xTdxHuXwvrWDLN7F6FthVHK0HpJwUQ3_ltHRiGpScU/s1600/spx_apr1.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The Nasdaq is struggling to recover its breakdown and undercut of 200-day MA. It found itself tagging 20-day MA resistance before taking a modest end-of-day reversal. A case could be made for an aggressive short with a stop on a close above its 20-day MA. Technicals are firmly bearish. There isn't a whole lot to like here.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBak2IcloGjLPyUYUKjk5otRs5RZMrJCJMpzi473f6_pBZC4NtackIMKoenbcNw0mfRJHM8dytzSTaJAg8ibKkcd22FUbHeRjaAxVfp-_0ytRE7RsJeEp_cWMp7Dh9kRFregDB3WTQTmPl4Z9j12BjKuolrkxRS-GufetImYmMMlvjJrdkO2Y-/s1600/compq_apr1.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBak2IcloGjLPyUYUKjk5otRs5RZMrJCJMpzi473f6_pBZC4NtackIMKoenbcNw0mfRJHM8dytzSTaJAg8ibKkcd22FUbHeRjaAxVfp-_0ytRE7RsJeEp_cWMp7Dh9kRFregDB3WTQTmPl4Z9j12BjKuolrkxRS-GufetImYmMMlvjJrdkO2Y-/s1600/compq_apr1.png"/></a></div> <p>It's a similar story for the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100, although it did stage a bounce from its measured move target. Today's small 'black' candlestick is not one to base hope on, particularly as technicals are net bearish.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5AGHqiXPRO-46QJqgPr4LXhke3L6kZKlO3gO5QPffuaZ2e5C1AfHdpm4VghT9JpYcwEqpSTGHmSL7KkGGhMTddGR6NA5yqCJfnr1Y4senG-PPaPs9CAyZLRug9q4z0WvQ5JQQGCNcBhvncYdLjH98XoXCkjgl3sb8s4Cyuuyv14UUTHfH8LfY/s1600/qqew_apr1.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5AGHqiXPRO-46QJqgPr4LXhke3L6kZKlO3gO5QPffuaZ2e5C1AfHdpm4VghT9JpYcwEqpSTGHmSL7KkGGhMTddGR6NA5yqCJfnr1Y4senG-PPaPs9CAyZLRug9q4z0WvQ5JQQGCNcBhvncYdLjH98XoXCkjgl3sb8s4Cyuuyv14UUTHfH8LfY/s1600/qqew_apr1.png"/></a></div> <p>Bitcoin hasn't flamed out on its latest 'buy', but it has become a scrappy affair. There is a new 'buy' signal in On-Balance-Volume and is on the verge of a new 'buy' signal in the MACD.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmqFzfvvLNqCAYlUBxRG87pLi2WZQQYqhK7tlMjQpMmybfIJb8AsU3XkDxUSkn4I5azvX-azqXIlupL6D0Q_tg07LF0RQAoFx8lgtEhEUKbiOtjHH9LXP5b0cY7KQrEq2c9IGEEgZezHeQmdocxUjfCRvYzVC8XHVp9buKQFQrcD4GpTRCa4nu/s1600/btcusd_apr1.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmqFzfvvLNqCAYlUBxRG87pLi2WZQQYqhK7tlMjQpMmybfIJb8AsU3XkDxUSkn4I5azvX-azqXIlupL6D0Q_tg07LF0RQAoFx8lgtEhEUKbiOtjHH9LXP5b0cY7KQrEq2c9IGEEgZezHeQmdocxUjfCRvYzVC8XHVp9buKQFQrcD4GpTRCa4nu/s1600/btcusd_apr1.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>Best of the action may come from the Dow Industrial Average. It cleared declining resistance and left a 'bear trap' in the process. It has a similar reversal candlestick as other indices, but it has a little more to work with having successfully defended the October swing low. If it can trade sideways from here and not undercut 45.5K again it will be well placed to mount a new rally.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh92NvnBckqKjXsIzlvZy-KrSVAHF8zTHrqkG7Gls1Iww4c6zCcBU5lDNmQUd1EBJlb0oWLtvi1DDuZ1LeipT5m2ZJOdqIJoASMxTHgFj6siqsSmNYjnc6_wWbV_ziDYMEacIjKC7EQcm7sRxES-5so03_JAmX3OynQ2MvTc38kUNtr1CXfnZlD/s1600/indu_apr1.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh92NvnBckqKjXsIzlvZy-KrSVAHF8zTHrqkG7Gls1Iww4c6zCcBU5lDNmQUd1EBJlb0oWLtvi1DDuZ1LeipT5m2ZJOdqIJoASMxTHgFj6siqsSmNYjnc6_wWbV_ziDYMEacIjKC7EQcm7sRxES-5so03_JAmX3OynQ2MvTc38kUNtr1CXfnZlD/s1600/indu_apr1.png"/></a></div> <p>We have workable support for the Dow, Russell 2000, Bitcoin and equal-weighted S&P; some look better than others. There is not really a trade on offer unless some of these make a return to near yesterday's open price on an intraday spike - but you would need a solid last half-hour to suggest there was real demand lurking.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-51493906980171287972026-03-30T22:37:00.002+01:002026-03-30T22:37:58.735+01:00<p>There is one thing a chaotic Trump can't control and that's the market, and the market is not pricing for good news any time soon. What good news there is, is that this decline is likely to lead to a good buying opportunity, similar to one last seen in April 2025 (as per the tables visible at the end of every post; if you just follow these signals you would be catching most of the major lows). We are only at the start of such a decline, but it's one I will be tracking.</p> <p>The strongest index is the Russell 2000 ($IWM). It only just undercut its 200-day MA, and may yet defend this moving average, but it has a tough fight ahead of it. Technicals are net negative, but it's outperforming the Nasdaq, and posted a distribution day yesterday. If this does manage to recover it will set up a bounce opportunity and will be one of the few buying opportunities, but to do so, it has to close above its 200-day MA, ideally on a bullish hammer or similar reversal candlestick.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPiXp70hUlmGWR0CoHyBmhshSSH_Czng__-wcKEs7FdnslA8yXnsywqsP_G8QQwk9a-MOp53nDM3_4zrgTavWLbugP23ZVuOo8o1fIt5e3RH1Vrr4c4DbgwfLJAHxRJxex6d-MIzJqc73c2Pq80H614yiQWPjO_dO1vQCqqwtj7JWxeYM9rrhz/s1600/iwm_mar30.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPiXp70hUlmGWR0CoHyBmhshSSH_Czng__-wcKEs7FdnslA8yXnsywqsP_G8QQwk9a-MOp53nDM3_4zrgTavWLbugP23ZVuOo8o1fIt5e3RH1Vrr4c4DbgwfLJAHxRJxex6d-MIzJqc73c2Pq80H614yiQWPjO_dO1vQCqqwtj7JWxeYM9rrhz/s1600/iwm_mar30.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>The S&P failed in its attempt to recover its 200-day MA and is paying the price now. Technicals are net negative but it's still managing to outperform the Nasdaq... I have marked in a measured move target lower for the index, which puts it in around 6,100, that's also an 8% loss from its 200-day MA - not enough for a strong 'buy' signal, but the index would be trading in an accumulation zone.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3j7WbMY3Oic_3MIaaDGURnJqoD9_U3_3kAnwdEvb_AZCLpXjz2DbMVA72wTcoj4Thl4OcCh5c-sYbmlVuV2dFfASiUx95XdEDHL00BKPxKWXYjQAzCgH5Ws84LzwiSa6V5rHLSiMqblbrGRyvv7bHqBupG3p3sYE48B5yyi38Z98G7BJPsK-j/s1600/spx_mar30.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3j7WbMY3Oic_3MIaaDGURnJqoD9_U3_3kAnwdEvb_AZCLpXjz2DbMVA72wTcoj4Thl4OcCh5c-sYbmlVuV2dFfASiUx95XdEDHL00BKPxKWXYjQAzCgH5Ws84LzwiSa6V5rHLSiMqblbrGRyvv7bHqBupG3p3sYE48B5yyi38Z98G7BJPsK-j/s1600/spx_mar30.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>Speaking of measured move targets, the Nasdaq is close to hitting its measured move target down around 20K, or 10% below its 200-day MA, also an accumulation zone. What's also likely to happen soon is a 'death cross' between its 50-day MA and 200-day MA.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj16Q62-0dTBHCWv1THSd2sdVQ_sGGsMWuJm-ql3k4TgqIP58kM2z9o5-GolxufGqh9uiUNi9DyczcPSHV0i8BMev9Qg-Gw-N9p9Or1aVsT5DHo44866bWwZyIBdIfynL9GjWwn2OV0A2F-GJa3pKeaCrIAJXtVkOJJb-trQcf6DyWtxjrninO9/s1600/compq_mar30.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj16Q62-0dTBHCWv1THSd2sdVQ_sGGsMWuJm-ql3k4TgqIP58kM2z9o5-GolxufGqh9uiUNi9DyczcPSHV0i8BMev9Qg-Gw-N9p9Or1aVsT5DHo44866bWwZyIBdIfynL9GjWwn2OV0A2F-GJa3pKeaCrIAJXtVkOJJb-trQcf6DyWtxjrninO9/s1600/compq_mar30.png"/></a></div> <p>Speaking of the Nasdaq and S&P, if you look at measured move targets you see a convergence with 2024 highs, a good chance we will see a support test, and perhaps a buying opportunity.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhhuhD33T_1tpTfbPbgocBCkyZ_UekSF5CaMKTpLbqzfnjNHzh56J3kSX_wdYJPZMfk_ovgC2USYQGTQBq3_dEmkRMw-kURGv2pxJcztORemzloB_72ZwFMUop1eCApeQa6gjzoT4tfXHBs1TUNfw03NJEu5Jt6WLvmYfHVh2k7wzB8L4ikuWB/s1600/spx_mar30w.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhhuhD33T_1tpTfbPbgocBCkyZ_UekSF5CaMKTpLbqzfnjNHzh56J3kSX_wdYJPZMfk_ovgC2USYQGTQBq3_dEmkRMw-kURGv2pxJcztORemzloB_72ZwFMUop1eCApeQa6gjzoT4tfXHBs1TUNfw03NJEu5Jt6WLvmYfHVh2k7wzB8L4ikuWB/s1600/spx_mar30w.png"/></a></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBxt0fxd8mRyAydrhjdL9bnTYDnm5ey0YMGpnUEsRKPB78-VSFH62ImKWjKFS1obeWxD16rv3VzfqXleGxtC5U6eQkCqdcpl0lz61aKSH1o8v1W-vCzNaPS_XKRO2qM-1mEMoZ9c5EHNrMRZdqDLYvBIjft1ixoQHnroxiuYwcdEfCXkSjiCne/s1600/compq_mar30w.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBxt0fxd8mRyAydrhjdL9bnTYDnm5ey0YMGpnUEsRKPB78-VSFH62ImKWjKFS1obeWxD16rv3VzfqXleGxtC5U6eQkCqdcpl0lz61aKSH1o8v1W-vCzNaPS_XKRO2qM-1mEMoZ9c5EHNrMRZdqDLYvBIjft1ixoQHnroxiuYwcdEfCXkSjiCne/s1600/compq_mar30w.png"/></a></div> <p>And such a test is playing out in the Dow Industrial Average now - time to buy?</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFuTuLT4Kq_IVoAKpVbfSCom44x5naOw0gazXhSc9Zy_17h9BKougkcVZQCUMevKw8MN9cn9sHpPL5xxDKUODYVj9sSPbKBEhGmr4NhH7JVUH9S57aXhebviz1CemERhTAJ33RRQ_HmLjhaRultKC-I0aRLGye_2w7x9elrt89ZZf6EuSRc5ic/s1600/djia_mar30.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFuTuLT4Kq_IVoAKpVbfSCom44x5naOw0gazXhSc9Zy_17h9BKougkcVZQCUMevKw8MN9cn9sHpPL5xxDKUODYVj9sSPbKBEhGmr4NhH7JVUH9S57aXhebviz1CemERhTAJ33RRQ_HmLjhaRultKC-I0aRLGye_2w7x9elrt89ZZf6EuSRc5ic/s1600/djia_mar30.png"/></a></div> <p>Bitcoin wasn't able to deliver on its last 'buy' signal, but it's offering another one now on today's higher volume accumulation.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4sS3jCCpD58e7nH16Qtnuc8mZqjD29rujT-Ce6xGU2Yf1LgSAaY_zCtdkeYTkzWXh0M3cgjTPrS_kNPBpmujuj0NBnt2fOIbqM7a0WVGXwbKLtlnPR2ZKpubMCVNDT7QHf2u9ibevXg1aXiToHJrH6v-u-JpicVMR5FtVGilinKCPmj9O2Hlz/s1600/btcusd_m30.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4sS3jCCpD58e7nH16Qtnuc8mZqjD29rujT-Ce6xGU2Yf1LgSAaY_zCtdkeYTkzWXh0M3cgjTPrS_kNPBpmujuj0NBnt2fOIbqM7a0WVGXwbKLtlnPR2ZKpubMCVNDT7QHf2u9ibevXg1aXiToHJrH6v-u-JpicVMR5FtVGilinKCPmj9O2Hlz/s1600/btcusd_m30.png"/></a></div> <p>On the flip side, Semiconductors took a big hit and having reached its measured move target upside, it now will be looking for a test of 6,400 support.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgv89e6bP7DqXrlSCLfmCfG_ZLg4DrxLVC5Uw9OLNasfwwJYWM7SKocPj2u5dHzhCvv0-O86Ae2wwNI074CrHGGmt1dhXkRl515b2J6IzsDlwm9JX2FT-mWwSX9dI8ZYwrd0b9eHqwWfJLacu7q_J5RtqimixYv668bh69KZ7l2s7npdJDK4wrw/s1600/sox_mar30.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgv89e6bP7DqXrlSCLfmCfG_ZLg4DrxLVC5Uw9OLNasfwwJYWM7SKocPj2u5dHzhCvv0-O86Ae2wwNI074CrHGGmt1dhXkRl515b2J6IzsDlwm9JX2FT-mWwSX9dI8ZYwrd0b9eHqwWfJLacu7q_J5RtqimixYv668bh69KZ7l2s7npdJDK4wrw/s1600/sox_mar30.png"/></a></div> <p>Despite the bearishness outgoing bearishness in lead indices, we do have buying opportunities in Bitcoin, Russell 2000, and the Dow Industrial Average. There is a high chance of failure, but big opportunities come with big risk.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-10387750670323714322026-03-26T00:35:00.002+00:002026-03-26T00:35:25.589+00:00<p>It's hard to know what will come next as some markets work bounces off their 200-day MAs, while others struggle below it.</p> <p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) successfully managed a test of its 200-day MA before rallying, while also leaving a 'bear trap' at $245. Buyers who took advantage of $245 will be sitting pretty, although traders with a shorter time frame may wish to site this out. Today's test of the 20-day MA may instead offer a shorting opportunity, particularly if there is a gap down on Thursday's open. Technicals are slowly recovering, although the MACD trigger 'buy' is a weak signal given the crossover below the bullish zero line.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhO99NelxXNuET5S7YajJrv9K0PzwkuYpRZFLPbC48DMt3MQs06XxJ9ANv-D5ekPvela0FIdKliRmRqZTCtDUIwtShU25ThpWqr1s2fZDd-dz3QOmybm2SqqLPM9RNn2GqKOVMe6dN0v5reHRbdsyoGh2YDqyjKsJdYjFqzSpHJtbA7FFoFusgu/s1600/iwm_mar25.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhO99NelxXNuET5S7YajJrv9K0PzwkuYpRZFLPbC48DMt3MQs06XxJ9ANv-D5ekPvela0FIdKliRmRqZTCtDUIwtShU25ThpWqr1s2fZDd-dz3QOmybm2SqqLPM9RNn2GqKOVMe6dN0v5reHRbdsyoGh2YDqyjKsJdYjFqzSpHJtbA7FFoFusgu/s1600/iwm_mar25.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>The equal weighted S&P managed a picture perfect test of its 200-day MA, but the bounce off the moving average is throwing some spike highs below 7,900 that leaves it vulnerable to another run at its 200-day MA. Technicals are net negative, although the index is starting to outperform against its weighted partner.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmPedPt350OFjRab_lh3K65L9pNS7M3mAvAiPqHY3EVSG2Th28Rzti3DZuhu2WW04nVrPkNi_DQN-mTjjGMrPpZ_yWaVMqqHU7hLu19BovbNVpWh6Fzqbf75KgvSu3iyW68jY1SFwZPV9Si1KVeSFTOOlL4LYhcYxX9nHUFMRLFAEkmbkKiSRV/s1600/SPXEW_mar25.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmPedPt350OFjRab_lh3K65L9pNS7M3mAvAiPqHY3EVSG2Th28Rzti3DZuhu2WW04nVrPkNi_DQN-mTjjGMrPpZ_yWaVMqqHU7hLu19BovbNVpWh6Fzqbf75KgvSu3iyW68jY1SFwZPV9Si1KVeSFTOOlL4LYhcYxX9nHUFMRLFAEkmbkKiSRV/s1600/SPXEW_mar25.png"/></a></div> <p>Where we have doubts is the regular S&P. The index undercut its 200-day MA last week and the proliferation of spike highs near this average points to supply issues. The index is feeling the pressure, although it still clings to support of the November swing low.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7CFEGif8DBNZWqTewEtgyA9QV8evJfYf3WeLkP9I4QqiTe1af6KLo7YLK6l2eAJE60zEHX3BKeUvPWX0xpT9_8B7Rar2mgJGooNqxJZpLbdvIzCYF8V6n_wffd4HpMvDOFWs8LuJES32krtJY9oTjnZldGB3L1nyPHkA-625-HlFoGT2qa0Ya/s1600/spx_mar25.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7CFEGif8DBNZWqTewEtgyA9QV8evJfYf3WeLkP9I4QqiTe1af6KLo7YLK6l2eAJE60zEHX3BKeUvPWX0xpT9_8B7Rar2mgJGooNqxJZpLbdvIzCYF8V6n_wffd4HpMvDOFWs8LuJES32krtJY9oTjnZldGB3L1nyPHkA-625-HlFoGT2qa0Ya/s1600/spx_mar25.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>Taking this a step further, the Nasdaq has sliced through both 200-day MA and November swing lows to leave what looks to be the start of a new bear market for the index. Technicals are net bearish, which adds to the pressure. Last November I had drawn a projected measured move target for the index down around 20.3K; a move that would place it around the 15% of historic weak action, altough ideally we want to see an 18% undercut of the 200-day MA to get a good buying signal that puts it in the 10% zone.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5LlTcXJehQAs7YQOcJuyXT6K0JbvJbqsx9l3QaGF7KUc0ZJTltehJCYOARdv6VNuL3TpZwNvh2R9MWkdJ6Ymbq6Et8mBzn6iVK3L71SorsmtdE28qQTOKktADsyxoCtZJ2K1XLEJQrmDuRjebMdcbKbim_XswMi6Y9I1FSpoR4cQCTW0OjBQZ/s1600/compq_mar25.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5LlTcXJehQAs7YQOcJuyXT6K0JbvJbqsx9l3QaGF7KUc0ZJTltehJCYOARdv6VNuL3TpZwNvh2R9MWkdJ6Ymbq6Et8mBzn6iVK3L71SorsmtdE28qQTOKktADsyxoCtZJ2K1XLEJQrmDuRjebMdcbKbim_XswMi6Y9I1FSpoR4cQCTW0OjBQZ/s1600/compq_mar25.png"/></a></div> <p>Another index at an inflection point is the Dow Industrials Average. It had successfully bounced off support of October lows having earlier lost its 200-day MA, but on the move back to the 200-day MA it has started to create spike highs that suggests sellers and shorts dominate on the test. If it can clear its 200-day MA it will offer a long trade opportunity, but it's running out of time to do this.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwMp7uHyIetGvzzlSa5A11swOHBxrcdJZraxq_cBbafHW4uB5kxw1WUGnem8G9OYPvVc8khhBiBuVGvIWCgOj6ecKhogXPAEr1IOuxxxW_cuttcBzwwlbLqqA5YXoV6P-QaRg3QrLfgwCZ965nbdVWC34eBmZ-Rzgwu_EwWEWwIbKjiqGTtjE-/s1600/indu_mar26.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwMp7uHyIetGvzzlSa5A11swOHBxrcdJZraxq_cBbafHW4uB5kxw1WUGnem8G9OYPvVc8khhBiBuVGvIWCgOj6ecKhogXPAEr1IOuxxxW_cuttcBzwwlbLqqA5YXoV6P-QaRg3QrLfgwCZ965nbdVWC34eBmZ-Rzgwu_EwWEWwIbKjiqGTtjE-/s1600/indu_mar26.png"/></a></div> <p>It's interesting to see so many indices test their 200-day MAs from above or below. Current action does feel like a significant moment for markets that will set the tone for the rest of the year. Current events favor bears, but markets have done relatively well to resist the political and economic damage.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-72337799518444739372026-03-23T23:28:00.003+00:002026-03-23T23:41:44.492+00:00<p>It was an interesting finish to Friday; some indices successfully tested their 20-day MAs - others did not. Pure technical traders could have taken a pop on Friday in the Russell 2000 ($IWM), and equal-weighted S&P ($SPXEW) at their 200-day MAs, knowing that other lead indices were undercutting their 200-day MAs, but it would be a big ask in the age of Trump (unless you were insider trading). Well, markets reacted positively to the announcement that Trump wasn't going to bomb Iran's energy infrastructure, but over the course of the day the majority of market participants didn't believe him, and sellers returned in force.</p> <p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) managed a picture perfect tag of the 200-day MA on Friday, but on Monday, the higher volume accumulation racked up by the close of business came with a sizable inverse spike.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHYVIif8dUw8IH_kxl4n_ykQlJPe8Yw5-jC_CF3QoVcaAcKOQq3GFf9D6Pz3xMz3XcJt1WOLHkR29IqsIb5gRZKOSjdZs8Yk_e7cElXGHyMQ-5SOmPlpheBbThTGeMecLmfxBhbJsszF__z37VI9IQ5Gd-VKRqSOR8qZphQ1uA1paHhzabQ_cu/s1600/rut_mar23.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHYVIif8dUw8IH_kxl4n_ykQlJPe8Yw5-jC_CF3QoVcaAcKOQq3GFf9D6Pz3xMz3XcJt1WOLHkR29IqsIb5gRZKOSjdZs8Yk_e7cElXGHyMQ-5SOmPlpheBbThTGeMecLmfxBhbJsszF__z37VI9IQ5Gd-VKRqSOR8qZphQ1uA1paHhzabQ_cu/s1600/rut_mar23.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>The S&P lost its 200-day MA during the middle of last week, and early buying on Monday looked like a recovery of the 200-day MA was going to happen. However, by the close of business, the index reversed its gains and undercut its 200-day MA once more. This is bad news for bulls.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4tO3xbz2Dr8foKfxPQN7seo9JcCFNdfxso6RsCdZY4bqxckydw59My0tS37y2BgCzhpYN4dO7ipbcFasi9gtr-ooAWf53daKz4Lh6eJkPZN4gGCSjB3CifwXMCkX45y33MOxUkynxqR-kmG_5-dWB-jEJDpZTCWt2FiMDq0epc0oh935H2B0b/s1600/spx_mar23.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4tO3xbz2Dr8foKfxPQN7seo9JcCFNdfxso6RsCdZY4bqxckydw59My0tS37y2BgCzhpYN4dO7ipbcFasi9gtr-ooAWf53daKz4Lh6eJkPZN4gGCSjB3CifwXMCkX45y33MOxUkynxqR-kmG_5-dWB-jEJDpZTCWt2FiMDq0epc0oh935H2B0b/s1600/spx_mar23.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The other side of this was the equal-weighted S&P, which closed Friday bang on its 200-day MA - rallied - and actually managed to not leave to large an overhead spike. It's a buying opportunity for a bounce, but a bounce which is likely to struggle once it gets to its 20-day MA.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUKOCsBoZQ0KKmfJ4SWLs6tJHubzpCZiYCWeIeaj_xS_f7mQcPgwQl6_UvQ3PF4AxSL1yV-pAuTv-I65O-GSKIV7kSF_lMHkspdP93nO3iIuBbg4jHz9GzX1bxqc2scnp3kp7ygYHFvlblwucmzuuHklob9kiQxFyjiTusC0fe1Bzp1k1b_ztZ/s1600/spxew_mar23.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUKOCsBoZQ0KKmfJ4SWLs6tJHubzpCZiYCWeIeaj_xS_f7mQcPgwQl6_UvQ3PF4AxSL1yV-pAuTv-I65O-GSKIV7kSF_lMHkspdP93nO3iIuBbg4jHz9GzX1bxqc2scnp3kp7ygYHFvlblwucmzuuHklob9kiQxFyjiTusC0fe1Bzp1k1b_ztZ/s1600/spxew_mar23.png"/></a></div> <p>The Nasdaq went a step further than the S&P and Russell 2000, undercutting not just its 200-day MA, but its trading range too. The loss of the November swing low initiated a new bear market for the index. Technicals are net negative, and the index is starting to underperform against the Russell 2000. Bad times ahead for this index?</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhO_Q_g3NC_yIJ_TU9dDGMdb_1zUEmFPC5Hrq72Ul-hwe4TtNSfWorqWERpc6Y5SvYO5DmVi3exPMlDVR1zJe98X13Be6EGQF7E_CyGOdd8evAS1od-FO817Yw7T4B1jA-in2r454WM93m3A6OYZiaVsL7NjEZ7AHlP66-p4RDjmRoLuGXkRMKl/s1600/nas_mar23.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhO_Q_g3NC_yIJ_TU9dDGMdb_1zUEmFPC5Hrq72Ul-hwe4TtNSfWorqWERpc6Y5SvYO5DmVi3exPMlDVR1zJe98X13Be6EGQF7E_CyGOdd8evAS1od-FO817Yw7T4B1jA-in2r454WM93m3A6OYZiaVsL7NjEZ7AHlP66-p4RDjmRoLuGXkRMKl/s1600/nas_mar23.png"/></a></div> <p>Not helping is the failure of the Semiconductor Index to push above its 50-day MA. Technicals are mixed, but price action is shifting bearish. If there is a loss of 7,450, then shorts can be expected to pile in and drive things towards its 200-day MA.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiB1sYnFNEAD776_qZdlgQWM9-hyJjvCIMwxonZp97tu3zQYAJhsqy057yQmQHC996q6dVud26qJfTkN0hzde6q8mXIZN7sCYBG5U29sX6QhDYVpJrGugT3V_0VsGNMtScf4JKJWh9vGLjoLeStQ_RLSJCdZWhzUWXSZmLsTmXQFr8LVYK5W-UJ/s1600/sox_mar23.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiB1sYnFNEAD776_qZdlgQWM9-hyJjvCIMwxonZp97tu3zQYAJhsqy057yQmQHC996q6dVud26qJfTkN0hzde6q8mXIZN7sCYBG5U29sX6QhDYVpJrGugT3V_0VsGNMtScf4JKJWh9vGLjoLeStQ_RLSJCdZWhzUWXSZmLsTmXQFr8LVYK5W-UJ/s1600/sox_mar23.png"/></a></div> <p>The Dow Industrials has yet to undercut its November swing low, but its treading on thin ice. The 200-day MA has been lost on net bearish indicators, and Monday's spike high shows supply is not too far away. If the Dow gives up 45,500 support it will start a new bear market for the index.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFE8hiCUVEA2S32uYipNs0OKtCcoXPGkE4yFoFbU2IPvFuS8ypUDsJttzQoemPPB1EBhz45w4eMcQo8fS8yTkR1p4CRt1OuVIPP2zdLGBETJYsvYBcjAgJJiGyIeS5rtJsFoMoutN1vqA3qBh8o7HsMZeSpep8Y0FkiMXJ6QgXHwEPx0OF9UCi/s1600/indu_mar23b.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFE8hiCUVEA2S32uYipNs0OKtCcoXPGkE4yFoFbU2IPvFuS8ypUDsJttzQoemPPB1EBhz45w4eMcQo8fS8yTkR1p4CRt1OuVIPP2zdLGBETJYsvYBcjAgJJiGyIeS5rtJsFoMoutN1vqA3qBh8o7HsMZeSpep8Y0FkiMXJ6QgXHwEPx0OF9UCi/s1600/indu_mar23b.png"/></a></div> <p>Despite all of this, bulls have one asset that is moving in their favor, and that's Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency has successfully defended its 50-day MA and today's gain sets up for the development of a right-hand base.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIg4yNKp6f2nP0pP7csJXwzh8t8U7GXAg2Sr8G2nWzoUVldobrylawsu-hBjtMwrULHjhOv1A9ltV2Acb8H5h561wRHkE34NWrisXANejW_V9lM8qm5rw6APfesrLGrfaHDwKY_AJVaqbPrugbitgRN-SrDUvwJ9DZNecpi56eP9WJCDcWAEco/s1600/btcusd_mar23.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIg4yNKp6f2nP0pP7csJXwzh8t8U7GXAg2Sr8G2nWzoUVldobrylawsu-hBjtMwrULHjhOv1A9ltV2Acb8H5h561wRHkE34NWrisXANejW_V9lM8qm5rw6APfesrLGrfaHDwKY_AJVaqbPrugbitgRN-SrDUvwJ9DZNecpi56eP9WJCDcWAEco/s1600/btcusd_mar23.png"/></a></div> <p>This week will be interesting. Trump's TACO decision is one markets are not expecting him to keep. Iran has little to lose by extending this war given neighboring countries have far more to lose (Iran having already lost so much already). The US has minimal physical vulnerability, and Israel has the means to defend itself, so there is little incentive for either of them to stop. In the middle of this, Arab nations will have decisions as to who to align with long term. If the US is unable to defend them, will they continue to host US bases? Will they move to appease Iran? What are the long term vulnerabilities to Israel from such (well funded) Arab nations experiencing the physical and economic brunt of this war? Markets are only *starting* to shape a new bear market, so the next question is whether this will be a bear market driven by a broader war in the Middle East.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-87096399791366965602026-03-18T22:35:43.646+00:002026-03-18T22:35:43.647+00:00<p>After yesterday, I was looking for big red candlesticks across indices, and today - they delivered. Those who took the opportunity to go short can place a stop at yesterday's close.</p> <p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) experienced a higher volume distribution day on net bearish technicals. Today's loss finished on $245/6 support, but another day's worth of selling will open up for a test of the 200-day MA and maybe a potential follow through move down to $228.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhITPNq5s4YSwQ52aYynHQbTbwWNwtViXqRvYLzMLNeYaaiuVVJWjFAT0Cltf3kI5eZ33iNkNJ2Jycww7Fs5R5NxLDt15keHuTb2uIhO_YJyKYuxNBq1_0wUd1tZ6JOH2IeUyVAVzMX-RoDRmYGcRF17Y2J_YFe21nI6qBdm-KMHd4xeaHVO7vQ/s1600/IWM_Mar18.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhITPNq5s4YSwQ52aYynHQbTbwWNwtViXqRvYLzMLNeYaaiuVVJWjFAT0Cltf3kI5eZ33iNkNJ2Jycww7Fs5R5NxLDt15keHuTb2uIhO_YJyKYuxNBq1_0wUd1tZ6JOH2IeUyVAVzMX-RoDRmYGcRF17Y2J_YFe21nI6qBdm-KMHd4xeaHVO7vQ/s1600/IWM_Mar18.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>The equal-weighted S&P is back down at 7,800 and it's looking like further losses are on the cards. The 200-day MA should be an initial test, but a measured move target would open up 7,400, that is also near the November swing low. Convergences are good, unless you are a bull.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEix81b9oMHNIrY0HRVvmPEJ9EkhbF7DiHEQJmvsLLBpl1ANxhaFHqVn3Q9PKkl6B-HuyYGkB2Bg8OtT8RkssiIzEQFcH4m7bDmL13otqNABGLL2IU3Qo8NX3uttbEsXRJm7YzeDyiNDjVKZdwR5KUMEubJibCCfwvvFyPK4Zcqn6eY9q9z0HCi6/s1600/spxew_mar18.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEix81b9oMHNIrY0HRVvmPEJ9EkhbF7DiHEQJmvsLLBpl1ANxhaFHqVn3Q9PKkl6B-HuyYGkB2Bg8OtT8RkssiIzEQFcH4m7bDmL13otqNABGLL2IU3Qo8NX3uttbEsXRJm7YzeDyiNDjVKZdwR5KUMEubJibCCfwvvFyPK4Zcqn6eY9q9z0HCi6/s1600/spxew_mar18.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The S&P is testing its 200-day MA on a nasty sell off. The best case scenario is a spike low, so if this sells off in morning trading but starts attracting buyers after lunch, then it may be worth a long trade - particularly if we get a spike low and a close above the 200-day MA.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2HtuoQsakN_0cvu1l2erNJgMGxhSqzmNX-wWVB2jwETy5HkWT9xzskQr9Z9lXTToyhzA6ClyyBHlUPrPhKw-N2A-q_kKsXl6Y1cjPZhuFbP_Kv-xpzuuSVIkK5JM5LrbIzx3c071yq5rxmZ_iUU-0zZDXOMATgrOaHtuJ_fmhZ5FNNAFk3_MX/s1600/spx_mar18.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2HtuoQsakN_0cvu1l2erNJgMGxhSqzmNX-wWVB2jwETy5HkWT9xzskQr9Z9lXTToyhzA6ClyyBHlUPrPhKw-N2A-q_kKsXl6Y1cjPZhuFbP_Kv-xpzuuSVIkK5JM5LrbIzx3c071yq5rxmZ_iUU-0zZDXOMATgrOaHtuJ_fmhZ5FNNAFk3_MX/s1600/spx_mar18.png"/></a></div> <p>Same applies for the Nasdaq.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjihSCR3VNz83av3uEg19aUBTl4hpvpURTNq9BZNGVyte_ux3JsWsdnntou3hY2Ki8U8SXWSZPdRRcASZxhSK1ZHL7lktSle75x7PjQN2qfQmY0etzdcrYL-JpdaFot9tAYgas9JwTVehFbXxrAcuFaQxdQNLIxqr4K1HPCzoK6vomcrVfJ5IH4/s1600/compq_mar18.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjihSCR3VNz83av3uEg19aUBTl4hpvpURTNq9BZNGVyte_ux3JsWsdnntou3hY2Ki8U8SXWSZPdRRcASZxhSK1ZHL7lktSle75x7PjQN2qfQmY0etzdcrYL-JpdaFot9tAYgas9JwTVehFbXxrAcuFaQxdQNLIxqr4K1HPCzoK6vomcrVfJ5IH4/s1600/compq_mar18.png"/></a></div> <p>Although I was disappointed with Bitcoin as I really was expecting some sizable upside follow through, instead, we got a red candlestick that threatens to undercut the steady work buyers had clocked in the past couple of weeks. This may morph into a scrappy base that could last months, which at best, is a hold.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEifdawh_XOAjYtXT8rhyphenhyphenuV_FhdX-6QZw73JNCs44IPx5WH4gywjSx6faOZLT_0at_1YTPmj_Yun3aVbHV5u7LQQrzrEsRxaRVHd9py9KFLz0Ydjk08WOsScMzmL8HVdFB3hjFMlMEyVuX31EATk36IrVBIwu-VP2tUKVRTkVEGyCqwyLXb5BfQR/s1600/btcusd_mar18.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEifdawh_XOAjYtXT8rhyphenhyphenuV_FhdX-6QZw73JNCs44IPx5WH4gywjSx6faOZLT_0at_1YTPmj_Yun3aVbHV5u7LQQrzrEsRxaRVHd9py9KFLz0Ydjk08WOsScMzmL8HVdFB3hjFMlMEyVuX31EATk36IrVBIwu-VP2tUKVRTkVEGyCqwyLXb5BfQR/s1600/btcusd_mar18.png"/></a></div> <p>The index to watch is the Dow Industrial Average. The index was the first to undercut its 200-day MA, which is warning for indices currently testing their 200-day MAs. Watch what happens tomorrow. If we are to see spike lows for indices testing 200-day MAs, then this has to make a comeback tomorrow.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-M8o-N1o-ZK-U4a2k4AdXBtL-dLllUmV4hzCKTN9h3yZbqU5Mor4nenT9oXuI8niiSTpQ77hNU6DYlbFcb99qlNvrQHVscgJx9yB_a5Jih_UyKCQa0-bYYm3Nz-QTE9c2OJe-jX8_cuLO1SxxpAmbVPIvjPtB-ocBjcUAGALmT2fyLX5kBPnW/s1600/indu_mar18.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-M8o-N1o-ZK-U4a2k4AdXBtL-dLllUmV4hzCKTN9h3yZbqU5Mor4nenT9oXuI8niiSTpQ77hNU6DYlbFcb99qlNvrQHVscgJx9yB_a5Jih_UyKCQa0-bYYm3Nz-QTE9c2OJe-jX8_cuLO1SxxpAmbVPIvjPtB-ocBjcUAGALmT2fyLX5kBPnW/s1600/indu_mar18.png"/></a></div> <p>If there is a shorting opportunity to look at, then it could be Semiconductors. A bearish cloud-cover candlestick at converged 20-day and 50-day MAs, with a couple of spike high doji last week (denoting supply), on weak technicals, says short...</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjn8Su3GRSo0RumnPaJkYzKo1vtMtl2JKxRwzOrIB6q5BM6ipERcONGFT-0J912WNzzNc3EsPKuYw7LjTUQxAGc_FiwijkFQoiHL5Rt365CFw3lbWy8GnkAnBLQjeytRz6mQHQXOdYF65mU01_xYSOa2Q768qOjSoKYjroILu8DyLcBszQfM0aF/s1600/sox_mar18.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjn8Su3GRSo0RumnPaJkYzKo1vtMtl2JKxRwzOrIB6q5BM6ipERcONGFT-0J912WNzzNc3EsPKuYw7LjTUQxAGc_FiwijkFQoiHL5Rt365CFw3lbWy8GnkAnBLQjeytRz6mQHQXOdYF65mU01_xYSOa2Q768qOjSoKYjroILu8DyLcBszQfM0aF/s1600/sox_mar18.png"/></a></div> <p>With the war in Iran not looking like it will finish soon, traders are now having to position themselves for the long haul, and that appears to be from the sidelines.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-72060982847742874772026-03-17T22:07:02.506+00:002026-03-17T22:07:02.507+00:00<p>Not Good. Indices remain under pressure after selling into support has only resulted in a weak bounce. It won't take much to tip the S&P, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 back into the red.</p> <p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) is the canary in the coal mine. Today was a second narrow doji after Monday's. Volume was down, reflecting the disinterest by buyers. Technicals are net negative and last week's gap down has finally closed. Don't be surprised if we see a solid red candlestick before the week is out. Even if there is a rally, the 20-day MA will be there to add its own pressure.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1Bnps8o6787nZGsgj5lko-c_V4uFScA3njjutf5z98MojGZKFX1Bdq7-tmyTkegQp5N0gqW9H9VnnQKm7FfKQWiVKOVRgATZ4GPqJqrv4Nai97tIxbNCc3GqFi8XG7xu_cnQ-FGXTpzg2qSgP_BAGtvR5YYSmBx2B6Ho3puJLEGym5vHe5CDT/s1600/iwm_mar17.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1Bnps8o6787nZGsgj5lko-c_V4uFScA3njjutf5z98MojGZKFX1Bdq7-tmyTkegQp5N0gqW9H9VnnQKm7FfKQWiVKOVRgATZ4GPqJqrv4Nai97tIxbNCc3GqFi8XG7xu_cnQ-FGXTpzg2qSgP_BAGtvR5YYSmBx2B6Ho3puJLEGym5vHe5CDT/s1600/iwm_mar17.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>The equal-weighted S&P is doing a little better with the rally, but given this has come off a cleaner trend break, it may find it more of a struggle to attract buyers.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwj3lnNVeGhidYFHSlEes9G_WYF-OZaZ1hm-kTY0PAwYJbJxIeFFKu2dsyRAr9AbaKoJ6OcDRZLdvJbDBlQJhIk-9XoF5c6dmLLLFERJIkgWJeGbxkOKIZ42YqAWUec3ipTaDe6YGXajgp8zGAq968-UZcZChdVMjB2ZZ02DI7rMs46dV2-0J5/s1600/spxew_mar17.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwj3lnNVeGhidYFHSlEes9G_WYF-OZaZ1hm-kTY0PAwYJbJxIeFFKu2dsyRAr9AbaKoJ6OcDRZLdvJbDBlQJhIk-9XoF5c6dmLLLFERJIkgWJeGbxkOKIZ42YqAWUec3ipTaDe6YGXajgp8zGAq968-UZcZChdVMjB2ZZ02DI7rMs46dV2-0J5/s1600/spxew_mar17.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The weighted S&P has been running along declining resistance since the middle of February and with the squeeze in play we will soon have a decision time with its 200-day MA. Technicals are net bearish, but there is another support level at 6,550.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8BVBhEQqvWSslwktZmnZtrza4P5aIj0hi9vJL0fGeiOWkLArCfk3B2M33U0Y4q6OxkQoGKwr6g1Ric7YDLX-2pVQifQnK0AFaKDEP8RElFUhdQprF8w66h73r5b3QmLiexBMspm_iJND0MO6OjpZOHmBlCzapWatlRVcnFZIveUnkBu1PaeRU/s1600/spx_mar17.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8BVBhEQqvWSslwktZmnZtrza4P5aIj0hi9vJL0fGeiOWkLArCfk3B2M33U0Y4q6OxkQoGKwr6g1Ric7YDLX-2pVQifQnK0AFaKDEP8RElFUhdQprF8w66h73r5b3QmLiexBMspm_iJND0MO6OjpZOHmBlCzapWatlRVcnFZIveUnkBu1PaeRU/s1600/spx_mar17.png"/></a></div> <p>The Nasdaq is also feeling the squeeze from selling pressure. It has already tested its 200-day MA, but today's doji has failed to break declining resistance. There is a 'buy' trigger in On-Balance-Volume and the MACD has flat-lined, so while bearish, there is hope - but 'hope' is never a good thing to depend on when trading. As a trade, it's an easy short, but if it can rally in the morning then an afternoon long trade might be the correct trade.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7TnX0_KzhEc0El6q7C9KiBWtp7Ew2ba9ZYu9osPxu6u_hsSWN11bQJgF-XnA-q1hxOv-URCKgvm_4JZUlz3mvgdB9zFv-UFNSWTTr8JgmEyHuK5wJUnNqtzgoktysSsAdOWZ3y7fG212mbenc7cylUCKpCsLfvGGjeRGwgBkPCptG3Oj_K21b/s1600/compq_mar17.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7TnX0_KzhEc0El6q7C9KiBWtp7Ew2ba9ZYu9osPxu6u_hsSWN11bQJgF-XnA-q1hxOv-URCKgvm_4JZUlz3mvgdB9zFv-UFNSWTTr8JgmEyHuK5wJUnNqtzgoktysSsAdOWZ3y7fG212mbenc7cylUCKpCsLfvGGjeRGwgBkPCptG3Oj_K21b/s1600/compq_mar17.png"/></a></div> <p>Interestingly, the Nasdaq Bullish Percents might be staging a double bottom, which might give bulls something to work with, but it will need more than a series of day-gains for this to gain traction.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_8XjaSoGJGa8Z1J7v30xq1RN4HKe7PfHwqgDePbI5hS5xvKxfwyMkg98he83eOqX9zBoWhy0U_KjFRVLfIne2LvAp1hLoJvzo6GPTWQw9-IIroJHCvON3vGlCYWo2dWnY6iViB16kiiYS2BB5ZHiTfvYlScnH6mXg_P02Imhs-5ApklbJK_Dz/s1600/bpcompq_mar17.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_8XjaSoGJGa8Z1J7v30xq1RN4HKe7PfHwqgDePbI5hS5xvKxfwyMkg98he83eOqX9zBoWhy0U_KjFRVLfIne2LvAp1hLoJvzo6GPTWQw9-IIroJHCvON3vGlCYWo2dWnY6iViB16kiiYS2BB5ZHiTfvYlScnH6mXg_P02Imhs-5ApklbJK_Dz/s1600/bpcompq_mar17.png"/></a></div> <p>Bitcoin has edged higher, holding the 50-day MA. The crypto is enjoying a series of low key gains that could be called 'modest' - not something you would ascribe to a cryptocurrency - but this is bullish.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2gbwtTq3NcfPgen4GsOS-r0La2eoS6dmh0NxdD2FzTcjqujR9EGH5jGQpG7xn6gDmtdRBdT1OoP_9D3endhf6YGoZgW9Pig37fzNGctW8GXOpwdLvN0i-0pGJQVQK2jDo90lO0PaSN46fHsrjacX1j1y3C-q9sNF-YLjtwLvtyMrkapZaSOnC/s1600/btcuas_mar17.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2gbwtTq3NcfPgen4GsOS-r0La2eoS6dmh0NxdD2FzTcjqujR9EGH5jGQpG7xn6gDmtdRBdT1OoP_9D3endhf6YGoZgW9Pig37fzNGctW8GXOpwdLvN0i-0pGJQVQK2jDo90lO0PaSN46fHsrjacX1j1y3C-q9sNF-YLjtwLvtyMrkapZaSOnC/s1600/btcuas_mar17.png"/></a></div> <p>Staying short side (with the exception of Bitcoin) looks like the trade of choice. Those looking to time a long-term investment still need to wait for a substantial undercut of the 200-day MA, and we are long way from that. If you are on the sidelines, then that's probably the best place to be at the moment.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-7724250380191649492026-03-12T22:00:00.001+00:002026-03-12T22:00:21.675+00:00<p>The problem when you trade off what Trump says, is that you are only in for disappointment. Monday's reversal that delivered what should have been a tradeable bullish engulfing pattern has devolved into a distribution sell off across lead indices.</p> <p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) gapped down but was at least able to hold onto $245 support. Technicals are net negative, but not fully oversold, so I would be looking for another day of selling that should take it into a test of its 200-day MA.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7TSSNucrLUryVOYwrHsA7CZzraD1W7Bb3ZuvlEuSvm7LVf6ysUFUsnkdQ88hnbi-fmOwKxqXWLqn5MT6SatFIXZ5kkqO_lifLjjnUOHMZ_bIxgSYdBZRW2s7NwADRPqy8Fa2tZAZbVdFh-nMLbYpW70NjYA5tbN2v96oMlX-ggLD6mBeYBv7N/s1600/iwm_mar12.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7TSSNucrLUryVOYwrHsA7CZzraD1W7Bb3ZuvlEuSvm7LVf6ysUFUsnkdQ88hnbi-fmOwKxqXWLqn5MT6SatFIXZ5kkqO_lifLjjnUOHMZ_bIxgSYdBZRW2s7NwADRPqy8Fa2tZAZbVdFh-nMLbYpW70NjYA5tbN2v96oMlX-ggLD6mBeYBv7N/s1600/iwm_mar12.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>The S&P broadened its losses, but it still has a few days to go before it reaches an oversold state and can start looking at a reversal. There was no confirmed distribution, but it's hard to see buyers mounting much of a defense without first testing its 200-day MA.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjg6pnsak5bn7czVikrwwzZr5HRD94nP-CJRQFQga-eAYFcB-XFwqaacnl98BPapMCUMvLewFJfnCcTmBKY62BmvNW7b2l0_PyomB5llh2QOqcsVic5pm6fc4qfDmbghrxWmzkUMr2wWc6lkMvocgefpcaRbOLubG_WCKc8zQj5_4l-6Xb7H57z/s1600/spx_mar12.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjg6pnsak5bn7czVikrwwzZr5HRD94nP-CJRQFQga-eAYFcB-XFwqaacnl98BPapMCUMvLewFJfnCcTmBKY62BmvNW7b2l0_PyomB5llh2QOqcsVic5pm6fc4qfDmbghrxWmzkUMr2wWc6lkMvocgefpcaRbOLubG_WCKc8zQj5_4l-6Xb7H57z/s1600/spx_mar12.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The equal-weighted S&P managed to undercut the Monday spike low, a warning sign for other indices yet to do so. It seems to be on course for a test of its 200-day MA. Technicals are net negative and stochastics just dropped into oversold territory.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeR_MoBNAc_31Jg_eFIfffJOki_ZdEhfe-j8O2-bsqP6_k_zd6W9SF9gEI1ghqId3cL3rnzeoiIL9o7FuD42Kg3jklzpnl5AKpK_bWAWPAAX45rXjsUxIfoi8917ucoD16vbCg3u3_oU3XbAuBmEPUzyNlyYjdhCFhOpwzSgUOuhVW3w_uKhhw/s1600/spxew_mar12.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeR_MoBNAc_31Jg_eFIfffJOki_ZdEhfe-j8O2-bsqP6_k_zd6W9SF9gEI1ghqId3cL3rnzeoiIL9o7FuD42Kg3jklzpnl5AKpK_bWAWPAAX45rXjsUxIfoi8917ucoD16vbCg3u3_oU3XbAuBmEPUzyNlyYjdhCFhOpwzSgUOuhVW3w_uKhhw/s1600/spxew_mar12.png"/></a></div> <p>The Nasdaq didn't experience the same degree of loss as the S&P. It also managed to successfully defend its 200-day MA. While further losses are likely, there is reason for optimism given the proximity of the 200-day MA and trading range support. Technicals are mixed, with On-Balance-Volume on a 'buy' trigger. It's an aggressive long for those willing to take a punt.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixTD70kbuaFRfgapi_uBBHJ_t5NBSL7apU7q2MxPLt2OioXaP3P3j-7rttx_aF2mJwP9xPck740hXv6WSMbWLoY7ap90bGmt0YgWhzvK7ZrNpo1X56IEffEBNqYybPDwLANtL8B2tiW2DFN8gEja-Eo5fyW4kcCe4nZLgtZBHvig8RfM6r3lCm/s1600/compq_mar12.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixTD70kbuaFRfgapi_uBBHJ_t5NBSL7apU7q2MxPLt2OioXaP3P3j-7rttx_aF2mJwP9xPck740hXv6WSMbWLoY7ap90bGmt0YgWhzvK7ZrNpo1X56IEffEBNqYybPDwLANtL8B2tiW2DFN8gEja-Eo5fyW4kcCe4nZLgtZBHvig8RfM6r3lCm/s1600/compq_mar12.png"/></a></div> <p>Bitcoin edged higher and has almost shifted technicals into a net bullish picture. The 50-day MA is not far overhead, and while this may act as resistance it may not do so for long. This still looks to be a workable long trade if not long already.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgE9-ytQ85HJr8ByA7llCI5S5Q8XQWfDWbJSckddFbsQ5rTdU89OkiduvVuYQUFNOLAkv_JyGBK7nwbHHPfK2haWBl5L41P8OHVRlhaQEZauxl5zkuO1XkrpvFYTV_GrgoPAju5QnS91GkxfpiB04sYtwDT2lbhMfWHORfDVsiqoQI66s4rv80F/s1600/btcusd_mar12.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgE9-ytQ85HJr8ByA7llCI5S5Q8XQWfDWbJSckddFbsQ5rTdU89OkiduvVuYQUFNOLAkv_JyGBK7nwbHHPfK2haWBl5L41P8OHVRlhaQEZauxl5zkuO1XkrpvFYTV_GrgoPAju5QnS91GkxfpiB04sYtwDT2lbhMfWHORfDVsiqoQI66s4rv80F/s1600/btcusd_mar12.png"/></a></div> <p>Another index testing lows is the Dow Industrial Average. It registered a distribution day and looks likely to test its 200-day MA tomorrow. Technicals are oversold.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1Wxm8r-eEyXxDQSh9Z6Q63QrVk2fSfMU1YuK3Nwo67wMC-aV7cbx3ypqMyZjPQmTajTEklwJ1AkqmaWwA6fr7K9FSTSyPqSjXSd4wVhjH80R3YkDQIVr2Xz2rWxc2maghsuvQjNoDE4NJaCjqkZpHblaJ-qAteF27l53WZFJ10NK5sjfRfYHn/s1600/indu_mar12.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1Wxm8r-eEyXxDQSh9Z6Q63QrVk2fSfMU1YuK3Nwo67wMC-aV7cbx3ypqMyZjPQmTajTEklwJ1AkqmaWwA6fr7K9FSTSyPqSjXSd4wVhjH80R3YkDQIVr2Xz2rWxc2maghsuvQjNoDE4NJaCjqkZpHblaJ-qAteF27l53WZFJ10NK5sjfRfYHn/s1600/indu_mar12.png"/></a></div> <p>On the short side, we have the Semiconductor Index. Yesterday's small inverse doji at the 50-day MA on net bearish technicals is a reversal candlestick that has the makings of more losses to come.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiIe4oEwgoB_gsF2gRk906YGXI8fCQLmzXV3hXE1ndERsaOhPFyOCn1Xk0Buo5CF_Pc2mmIV501-aDzY_OcvGQGMUzq7gtZa_eO6A0BLKapWW8p0ljrhNuvVCeviTlj7RwNQ3uEYaWMfxyGYX_RRouVTmaPG4qGB8UtezFbsdGn_Ft-Ec371JH2/s1600/sox_mar12.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiIe4oEwgoB_gsF2gRk906YGXI8fCQLmzXV3hXE1ndERsaOhPFyOCn1Xk0Buo5CF_Pc2mmIV501-aDzY_OcvGQGMUzq7gtZa_eO6A0BLKapWW8p0ljrhNuvVCeviTlj7RwNQ3uEYaWMfxyGYX_RRouVTmaPG4qGB8UtezFbsdGn_Ft-Ec371JH2/s1600/sox_mar12.png"/></a></div> <p>Today felt like the first day markets actually posted a sell off rather than some indecisive trading range action. Those that shorted the resistance test marked by February declining highs will be sitting pretty.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-72667331143315228222026-03-10T21:24:00.001+00:002026-03-10T21:24:15.609+00:00<p>Markets are reflecting the turmoil in the Middle East by being as indecisive as the Administration in its goals for the region. Headlines talk of significant declines, but that's not what we are seeing. The Nasdaq has been particularly resilient despite the added pressure from a possible AI bubble. I have marked in declining resistance from January, that intersects with today's close, and marks a possible short trade (stop on a close above today's nasty looking spike high). There is a weak 'buy' signal, but other indicators are bearish, despire the sharp acceleration in relative performance to the Russell 2000 ($IWM).</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZ8kXRfVwe9mC2y6yzSxtS5Hqb1BJqVKhnLkNpT-6McbJWW2mDNda31Sr6Q6Ypm6WFlqHKUQ2es2jclQt2AwPj2XIkOfq6oIJnlj0bcymQtyp_no5JMMLYOsu-hQ8WQivMGfJPxM8XzQbLvKlMa4t9_9TXQKwnuPzh5D-4jwDVOpYVQ_glANV5/s1600/compq_mar10.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZ8kXRfVwe9mC2y6yzSxtS5Hqb1BJqVKhnLkNpT-6McbJWW2mDNda31Sr6Q6Ypm6WFlqHKUQ2es2jclQt2AwPj2XIkOfq6oIJnlj0bcymQtyp_no5JMMLYOsu-hQ8WQivMGfJPxM8XzQbLvKlMa4t9_9TXQKwnuPzh5D-4jwDVOpYVQ_glANV5/s1600/compq_mar10.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>After yesterday's bullish engulfing pattern in the Russell 2000 ($IWM) we now have the hangover with the "gravestone doji", although its significance is reduced as the index is not overbought. It's a shorting opportunity, particular as the index failed to close above $255; stops on a volume move above $258.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJMkBBzNB6fsfEhSHoP3Zm_zndmJjtGm1GXktTvqf1NupZupXMx-Vblc2NiehilqBdoslvUNfHd-3oZZseek-n1xbsFgV2gil5B9aOEI0dH2HaL6P3Yxal4ETPw7BEXmL7b1zoRRQnrg3p7bDwcUdYbyiUFUG53b8cP0PXG4gq6RdE8LHikbof/s1600/iwm_mar10.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJMkBBzNB6fsfEhSHoP3Zm_zndmJjtGm1GXktTvqf1NupZupXMx-Vblc2NiehilqBdoslvUNfHd-3oZZseek-n1xbsFgV2gil5B9aOEI0dH2HaL6P3Yxal4ETPw7BEXmL7b1zoRRQnrg3p7bDwcUdYbyiUFUG53b8cP0PXG4gq6RdE8LHikbof/s1600/iwm_mar10.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The S&P finished with an indecisive spinning top at former support, now resistance. Resistance is well defined from within the trading range and a move to push into yesterday's candlestick seems likely. A test of the 200-day MA can't be ruled out, but the larger reality is that a larger trading range will be established with new support at 6,550.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXEUJnh4nSHVp2I3CVHm7HQhPZFAZH3o2HxJ9TQDn9aS0uadVp4ZX7eKPtHOp9A5FyibyMZ_AIu8WzYeb1LDJnarwMZKcbQVT4jTD0C7F-fVRJBAuPgMtVx1nHox8BHJsUAltXpHJOYwdpHzy6Dv2QM4gsxYgUymFBCEru-l6S60aPXVfaOvuW/s1600/spx_mar10.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXEUJnh4nSHVp2I3CVHm7HQhPZFAZH3o2HxJ9TQDn9aS0uadVp4ZX7eKPtHOp9A5FyibyMZ_AIu8WzYeb1LDJnarwMZKcbQVT4jTD0C7F-fVRJBAuPgMtVx1nHox8BHJsUAltXpHJOYwdpHzy6Dv2QM4gsxYgUymFBCEru-l6S60aPXVfaOvuW/s1600/spx_mar10.png"/></a></div> <p>The equal-weighted S&P came close to tagging 7,800 support, that itself could become next trading range support. Technicals are net negative, but not oversold, although a test of 7,800 would likely coincide with a move into an oversold state.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcHdS5cgEkIJd7PSlXRn_FDxx0ZjlC6uo_9Rs0y9AOPWjgMLMxAoe0LLucgFmUSCICrbkh1sAPgfdShuMUtJpYPmTa5pYMwjWFXz8YGHwjPW_KK4hZrwv3YishRV_9j_4kgxEN-5-ujt9vvOBpJ86O6DaKgpP6s51tYaMupYztHO_wRNBudcL3/s1600/spxew_mar10.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcHdS5cgEkIJd7PSlXRn_FDxx0ZjlC6uo_9Rs0y9AOPWjgMLMxAoe0LLucgFmUSCICrbkh1sAPgfdShuMUtJpYPmTa5pYMwjWFXz8YGHwjPW_KK4hZrwv3YishRV_9j_4kgxEN-5-ujt9vvOBpJ86O6DaKgpP6s51tYaMupYztHO_wRNBudcL3/s1600/spxew_mar10.png"/></a></div> <p>The long trade of choice is Bitcoin. What had looked to be a 'bull trap' is now evolving into a challenge of its 50-day MA. If it can get past this moving average it will open up for a move to the 200-day MA and/or $85K. Technicals are mixed and the MACD has done well to sustain what is a weak 'buy' signal. The cryptocurrency has halved in value since peaking last year, so odds favor upside from here.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXNYGbyhNvrm0qo1zQkVVhUGDecCCvbc_kXIELfYG6hAPE_eslFJBuGzT7AjQj1coJXoYBr8IdnESJKar45OPHdskgQJjtX0ea17rzx4RZyXVJA7r4WqJAmi6zXHEBh0vBPWGReIA9HEVIWi9B3eVrWdQDIEU_1nu15TQJuCpgwcz0wL4iH6Ni/s1600/btcusd_mar10.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXNYGbyhNvrm0qo1zQkVVhUGDecCCvbc_kXIELfYG6hAPE_eslFJBuGzT7AjQj1coJXoYBr8IdnESJKar45OPHdskgQJjtX0ea17rzx4RZyXVJA7r4WqJAmi6zXHEBh0vBPWGReIA9HEVIWi9B3eVrWdQDIEU_1nu15TQJuCpgwcz0wL4iH6Ni/s1600/btcusd_mar10.png"/></a></div> <p>We have potential short trades for lead indices and a long opportunity in Bitcoin. Take your pick.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-85277831496460242502026-03-08T19:43:00.002+00:002026-03-08T20:44:50.594+00:00<p>It was not a guaranteed thing, and if Monday sees gains (unlikely), then a bear trap can't be ruled out. It was not a wholesale disaster, but it will set the tone for the week.</p> <p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) gapped down but wasn't able to build on the opening loss. The end-of-day finish as a doji leaves it in a bit of a no-mans land, but if there is a gap higher and a closing white candlestick tomorrow, then we have a bullish morning star reversal pattern. Stochastics (momentum) is not entirely oversold, which you would like to see for a reversal pattern. Technicals are now net negative, so it does point towards further losses, but do watch for an opening gap higher that could offer a long trade.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0YCGTDZEUpVPoIXnstps2EqxC5NHgChfyDUJ4D63imZveHPzor6YDqvPAwxB9OMumu2N9-zSv9f2PXDWoDz-dGT_raLMq9Nc4JxeR1ZBa86nV0wYIKu0mynugcoRldcvDrBDTXFwU-f0R828RjliJjXoJDg1L-nNOafLJ2aFLskXtv2hDyPIN/s1600/iwm_mar5.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0YCGTDZEUpVPoIXnstps2EqxC5NHgChfyDUJ4D63imZveHPzor6YDqvPAwxB9OMumu2N9-zSv9f2PXDWoDz-dGT_raLMq9Nc4JxeR1ZBa86nV0wYIKu0mynugcoRldcvDrBDTXFwU-f0R828RjliJjXoJDg1L-nNOafLJ2aFLskXtv2hDyPIN/s1600/iwm_mar5.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>The S&P gapped and close inside the previous spike low. This might be the most short friendly index as this level of weakness can quickly runaway once the spike low is breached (a loss of 6,700). Technicals are net negative but still a few days away from becoming oversold. I'm still liking a move to test the 200-day MA.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSzXHmNb1Z8dUWk2f8D9LvXAbmmVLXAoEUUNWZfn52a9keGrpki4WIFopsepKl2zQaazpAcFAoywhlXHbg9l5RSApp7njYXwy6kO-SIVmkZkLT4cFeoiCZxm9UogcC6j8Al0hs9IAJxAXHxXbbYvhukpbR_quziV6PDqvIbnrmpPPb7ME1NTG8/s1600/spx_mar6.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSzXHmNb1Z8dUWk2f8D9LvXAbmmVLXAoEUUNWZfn52a9keGrpki4WIFopsepKl2zQaazpAcFAoywhlXHbg9l5RSApp7njYXwy6kO-SIVmkZkLT4cFeoiCZxm9UogcC6j8Al0hs9IAJxAXHxXbbYvhukpbR_quziV6PDqvIbnrmpPPb7ME1NTG8/s1600/spx_mar6.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The equal-weighted S&P undercut its 50-day MA easy enough, but looks to have found its trading range support at 7,950. Lose this level and 7,800 becomes the next target. A narrow range day above 7,950 would give swing traders a nice setup for Tuesday.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpbBKr4a6MvRBhuYHIBUsKsbonUoFiAg9CCkx3-7APMDlLzwbNGjF7wziyU8zX5DWQwDDpAdshx84VLAvYresRE6KUUytbfVESUm0QtbqByAe9TE6wW3ccw6suDJnXeyoDRU3hPcrFcpjzS2-B1EHrKrvEr6f22BmpOf1aU2YEkGsxMv20aoz4/s1600/spxew_mar6.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpbBKr4a6MvRBhuYHIBUsKsbonUoFiAg9CCkx3-7APMDlLzwbNGjF7wziyU8zX5DWQwDDpAdshx84VLAvYresRE6KUUytbfVESUm0QtbqByAe9TE6wW3ccw6suDJnXeyoDRU3hPcrFcpjzS2-B1EHrKrvEr6f22BmpOf1aU2YEkGsxMv20aoz4/s1600/spxew_mar6.png"/></a></div> <p>When we look at the weekly picture we may still be on course for a slow rollover. Note how momentum is still overbought, which is still bullish despite the action we have seen on a daily timeframe. Weekly volume was down a little on last week's confirmed distribution.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAvISCuMsBWUYyUtbKozua432tD4VuRDlfujucYDL9Zo_PkVmH1E5IqXZWmjTtO5KtIHFaomJiaK4QVzGn5j2pf0nZyeG6cIeFEz3DcVDE44eArU-G8cZ4PDNUiFiAXgasP0VcLACIMNQ1cMEcm8rGxKpa0YJrMD3ni37DXGa68djY9rhehz60/s1600/spx_w_mar6.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAvISCuMsBWUYyUtbKozua432tD4VuRDlfujucYDL9Zo_PkVmH1E5IqXZWmjTtO5KtIHFaomJiaK4QVzGn5j2pf0nZyeG6cIeFEz3DcVDE44eArU-G8cZ4PDNUiFiAXgasP0VcLACIMNQ1cMEcm8rGxKpa0YJrMD3ni37DXGa68djY9rhehz60/s1600/spx_w_mar6.png"/></a></div> <p>The Nasdaq has been the fly in the ointment. The index most people thought would suffer on an AI-centric crash has held up relatively well. The trading range is still intact, but technicals are net negative. So, I would be looking for a loss of 22.1K, but with the 200-day MA fast approaching from below don't be surprised if we only see a spike low test of the latter moving average before buyers take this back above 22.1K for an end-of-day close.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhuM8jTGE4_XyQAp4BvFpb6nqtmSsvImGa8LjkY-ogeu8-UU5bbR0moL9Ueoc7qLW2BU7Ot6oIuoyDv0UNKttogEztT2AV88FzNHuxlKP8_-rl5MAaRdD0tLLrzOAuNn8M1SbZY6pgG4dvdzspVNzeAVDr-BKbm16Xh3W6bM3X4eOSl0FE5hbY/s1600/compq_mar6.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhuM8jTGE4_XyQAp4BvFpb6nqtmSsvImGa8LjkY-ogeu8-UU5bbR0moL9Ueoc7qLW2BU7Ot6oIuoyDv0UNKttogEztT2AV88FzNHuxlKP8_-rl5MAaRdD0tLLrzOAuNn8M1SbZY6pgG4dvdzspVNzeAVDr-BKbm16Xh3W6bM3X4eOSl0FE5hbY/s1600/compq_mar6.png"/></a></div> <p>Bitcoin gave up most of the early week gains, finishing the week with an inverse spike that marked a high degree of overhead supply, but if traders are able to finish the coming week with a close inside this spike, then I would be optimistic for future gains.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHHjQ9hFauRQq7dMXboGQYaRh9fIau2J4wdcHcT-dMYy-LMp7UxVIKYOVx2AikCY00S0VpT0EvbC9A0wzgTnRNrdKDhv9sDQ7MevLMQXzTn0ZAka5277A72nXrlPSXnR8M0lwf6-PeXAbcdmMKjJmyNZWV4gRmvsXCnV_qNkRMQ4xbmRjg5f6r/s1600/btcusd_mar8.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHHjQ9hFauRQq7dMXboGQYaRh9fIau2J4wdcHcT-dMYy-LMp7UxVIKYOVx2AikCY00S0VpT0EvbC9A0wzgTnRNrdKDhv9sDQ7MevLMQXzTn0ZAka5277A72nXrlPSXnR8M0lwf6-PeXAbcdmMKjJmyNZWV4gRmvsXCnV_qNkRMQ4xbmRjg5f6r/s1600/btcusd_mar8.png"/></a></div> <p>An aggressive long might be found in the Dow Industrial Average. Friday finished with a nice hammer (note how Thursday's close was inside the prior spike - hence the gap down on Friday), although technicals are not fully oversold. If Monday see's another push into the spike low, but sees a strong end-of-day finish, then it will be a long trade with risk:reward measured from Friday's low to 48K upside target.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-b6nHOo8leSsMcXeD8kG9C6DMNEm1wQsPglQaCR_ys18bxZxzJ1Ebvaa5YVAVqqdUwd5RlhRIL5UFoXIBtGlD-qplhn9q5LQsyw3pBiRzCkxEVku_RRU0lglDmng0HtZOVJPum8GuaVMQnV2KV0ChTJfjT2H6KFKl0ClmUBVbKMGzTo1_q5kL/s1600/indu_mar6.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-b6nHOo8leSsMcXeD8kG9C6DMNEm1wQsPglQaCR_ys18bxZxzJ1Ebvaa5YVAVqqdUwd5RlhRIL5UFoXIBtGlD-qplhn9q5LQsyw3pBiRzCkxEVku_RRU0lglDmng0HtZOVJPum8GuaVMQnV2KV0ChTJfjT2H6KFKl0ClmUBVbKMGzTo1_q5kL/s1600/indu_mar6.png"/></a></div> <p>Another decision point has opened for the Semiconductor Index. It staged a picture-perfect reversal off the January upside target, and now finds itself back at support from that early year breakout. While Friday's candlestick is not bullish, with the finish at support it might be worth a punt for longs. The net bearish technical picture suggests any bounce might not last long.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFIEW5vsZR8k3h0L7KF2wOsVYhgRYEsrtjwhyphenhyphenu2HRlNfK11OMbvCDvhV1VmhDVxtx6T3G7zh5WFoedmOJMkyELTapJmfXUApNci4B_mcArB5fsqR1AacWF8DAlcwS8m6Mj02jmwcgNpO3A4hjUTqtUpC7faI2HSpFDDDefP_3Ww_VoQz-OJiRI/s1600/sox_mar6.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFIEW5vsZR8k3h0L7KF2wOsVYhgRYEsrtjwhyphenhyphenu2HRlNfK11OMbvCDvhV1VmhDVxtx6T3G7zh5WFoedmOJMkyELTapJmfXUApNci4B_mcArB5fsqR1AacWF8DAlcwS8m6Mj02jmwcgNpO3A4hjUTqtUpC7faI2HSpFDDDefP_3Ww_VoQz-OJiRI/s1600/sox_mar6.png"/></a></div> <p>So, despite the loss of trading ranges in lead indices we are not out of long opportunities. Monday's open and the first 30-minutes of trading could dictate which way to trade; a gap down and a rally *after* the first 30 minutes would make longs favored.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} <p>gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-69741087861933289672026-03-05T21:54:00.001+00:002026-03-05T22:03:25.846+00:00<p>We are seeing a pick up in trading volume with selling dominating, but we are not seeing a new downward trend, at least, not yet. News headlines paint a harsher picture of market action, but it hasn't borne out yet. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) has drfited towards range support on a sequence of lower highs (but not yet lower lows). I expect this squeeze to play out with a solid red candlestick breakdown (and a good short trade) with a target of the 200-day MA. This should turn technicals net negative, and then, we can start to see if a new bear trend forms.</p> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigD753vs11zG0MBBofsA6PbQRbRbZ5o1e-g9NAdLmeL8pLhyh3j8oWnU6lL7_CLnZ2pRyiA9A-2XkTaVNuXSzyFxuQwF38tgqj8UwXL7SvRpycfADh_hBF57G4m9x35IVn6xdVMdH_CXRyL5u4aKmzvoMOvSHZUhlPoSPzr45CzINoMmgQRWC-/s1600/iwm_mar5.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigD753vs11zG0MBBofsA6PbQRbRbZ5o1e-g9NAdLmeL8pLhyh3j8oWnU6lL7_CLnZ2pRyiA9A-2XkTaVNuXSzyFxuQwF38tgqj8UwXL7SvRpycfADh_hBF57G4m9x35IVn6xdVMdH_CXRyL5u4aKmzvoMOvSHZUhlPoSPzr45CzINoMmgQRWC-/s1600/iwm_mar5.png"/></a></div> <a name='more'></a><p>The S&P is also testing range support, but does have the early week spike low to work with. Recent volume has been modest, although technicals are net negative - including a new downtrend in On-Balance-Volume. Moves into spike lows typically result in a loss of the spike low if the day closes inside this spike. A loss of 6,800 opens up a short opportunity with a stop on an end-of-day close above 6,800.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_btmhwAiFojnoo2NOddCwCPsEETulSlSzSDRfU7Zd5eevYt5pOyVGAa8uP3fah-j5WhP7CFBqCnEsjQ94wE5NpLqj9TlJMTCEOoyGoN-wiwNA2cMtDkZ5IbwLvwHq9VkAlHBarD2tcn7Df5wEgAAP_ND3l_-jW8tSQVKUB_9vjIpAGsBoh9bk/s1600/spx_iwm5.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_btmhwAiFojnoo2NOddCwCPsEETulSlSzSDRfU7Zd5eevYt5pOyVGAa8uP3fah-j5WhP7CFBqCnEsjQ94wE5NpLqj9TlJMTCEOoyGoN-wiwNA2cMtDkZ5IbwLvwHq9VkAlHBarD2tcn7Df5wEgAAP_ND3l_-jW8tSQVKUB_9vjIpAGsBoh9bk/s1600/spx_iwm5.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>What might offer more guidance is the equal-weighted S&P. It established a clear trend break, followed by two successful tests of the 50-day MA. Given the frequency of the two 50-day MA tests I would not be surprised if there is a third, and on that test, the 50-day MA breaks. Technicals are mixed, but for now, one would be arguing for a trading range, similiar to the one for the weighted S&P.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTlMkvdorT4GxKX2_0r7kYgzA59VtyaB8VnS17cPk8mdgRfXsZhP2HyOOxmSAdguTzSHLrgHHznLNNcNUpZMeftvM_eb6QFPMc7KhIxX1T_uGqg7VX8eOo2mRt4ec2UrczXUjdxAbYWck7QGgVhOPmmBIquvHEx0Y6zYSfijaLm7NDx9vQ-Ie9/s1600/spxew_mar5.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTlMkvdorT4GxKX2_0r7kYgzA59VtyaB8VnS17cPk8mdgRfXsZhP2HyOOxmSAdguTzSHLrgHHznLNNcNUpZMeftvM_eb6QFPMc7KhIxX1T_uGqg7VX8eOo2mRt4ec2UrczXUjdxAbYWck7QGgVhOPmmBIquvHEx0Y6zYSfijaLm7NDx9vQ-Ie9/s1600/spxew_mar5.png"/></a></div> <p>The Nasdaq is holding up a little better than peer indices. Yesterday's buying volume ranked as accumulation, although the 20-day MA is playing as resistance and this moving average is fast approaching range support and the 200-day MA. This squeeze will result in a sharp break, and when it does, one can trade in the direction of the break.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjLD7acyZG_eh4eH_wEwRUvkfl4GCuYwHljgOAXwoQ0CRRYx4m9AQq8Kui7VFpck26K1Xtq0X3_ROBqkH_EOhjF8uL219d_5UksuZjF5EqmR-J7vjBp1BJKe5eq6A_i4ik5c24D9o9mwq2HHPL4rypvYGaWUprVlrBN6UIKtdKFyZyMhz6vOyD/s1600/compq_mar5.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjLD7acyZG_eh4eH_wEwRUvkfl4GCuYwHljgOAXwoQ0CRRYx4m9AQq8Kui7VFpck26K1Xtq0X3_ROBqkH_EOhjF8uL219d_5UksuZjF5EqmR-J7vjBp1BJKe5eq6A_i4ik5c24D9o9mwq2HHPL4rypvYGaWUprVlrBN6UIKtdKFyZyMhz6vOyD/s1600/compq_mar5.png"/></a></div> <p>Bitcoin made the initial break higher, clearing its 20-day MA in the process. It has since eased back a little but hasn't risked losing the break higher. The initial target remains the 50-day MA and then $85K, which will likely coincide with a test of its 200-day MA.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitYA8iOuSPhhlPot4qM9Z6Ys73D0Jw-hQPsOnosjFXZ-vai41zcmEtoVHwlF9XWAbCpedeQObc2cibLSz4LVVlTnAI0_udGtbgcdJugJR80EX3NTkEl8_iPN3VjJ4tNaUQeflsnJKWxfoPPgfuUcdQTzqMUHg_F3g6v7oPZVp12cIYb0Lj_Lbb/s1600/btcusd_mar5.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitYA8iOuSPhhlPot4qM9Z6Ys73D0Jw-hQPsOnosjFXZ-vai41zcmEtoVHwlF9XWAbCpedeQObc2cibLSz4LVVlTnAI0_udGtbgcdJugJR80EX3NTkEl8_iPN3VjJ4tNaUQeflsnJKWxfoPPgfuUcdQTzqMUHg_F3g6v7oPZVp12cIYb0Lj_Lbb/s1600/btcusd_mar5.png"/></a></div> <p>There are short trades in the making, but with markets caught in trading ranges any pre-emptive trade runs the risk of whipsaw. Longs have Bitcoin to work with, which we may be the more stable long trade.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-35765218247298863782026-03-04T00:26:00.002+00:002026-03-04T00:26:46.724+00:00<p>The Iranian war has flagged extreme headlines, but markets haven't broken from their trading ranges bar a few exceptions.</p> <p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) is the most bullish of the indices. The index successfully defended $255 support but did finish the day below 50-day MA support. Technicals are still mixed, with momentum (Stochastics) likely the next indicator to switch bearish, which would make bears favorite overall.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2W5IWdEZpBXAH8YvE2Uq8YGem60gh0_359NMDUpyC1b11i58DdqP9Z0ygCw-B0ezIxAcnIQvq8uj7-E_JE9J7Ka3AKiA3-SoMG5sQ5kkQ48FfsLPv5XxZ61t4uuTvvsWi4C3nxes9C4Woif8C5dt8EahahQT7u3OORArNBvQYaSIgd7EG90G0/s1600/iwm_mar3.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2W5IWdEZpBXAH8YvE2Uq8YGem60gh0_359NMDUpyC1b11i58DdqP9Z0ygCw-B0ezIxAcnIQvq8uj7-E_JE9J7Ka3AKiA3-SoMG5sQ5kkQ48FfsLPv5XxZ61t4uuTvvsWi4C3nxes9C4Woif8C5dt8EahahQT7u3OORArNBvQYaSIgd7EG90G0/s1600/iwm_mar3.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The S&P spiked below 6,790 support before staging a recovery to close above this (real-body) support line. Technicals are net bearish, but the spike low should mark a point of demand. However, if tomorrow, the index closes within the range of the spike low, then all bets are off. Aggressive traders could look to play a long trade off the open, but if gains fail to build earlier then I wouldn't stick around.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyBgitAjLER7wmpCyfjRIygltJq2X-0uI1pR8MjgbTqzaLgGgHEfuFesZ6EqkH6SFc9IH4gNrHMMZGVXhB0kb1Z4jc2oP46n33NE1FroTnzVY7gkzddhQi10WSO_n-vJxiMk58vr6kG4r3pIkw5aQuz3CW-ext9stHiEitlVueZtCTpRLeiMO4/s1600/spx_mar3.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyBgitAjLER7wmpCyfjRIygltJq2X-0uI1pR8MjgbTqzaLgGgHEfuFesZ6EqkH6SFc9IH4gNrHMMZGVXhB0kb1Z4jc2oP46n33NE1FroTnzVY7gkzddhQi10WSO_n-vJxiMk58vr6kG4r3pIkw5aQuz3CW-ext9stHiEitlVueZtCTpRLeiMO4/s1600/spx_mar3.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>It was a different story for the equal-weighted S&P. This posted a clear breakdown from the rising trend, but did manage to successfully defend its 50-day MA off a spike low. As with the regular S&P, if the index trades inside the spike range tomorrow, then there is a good chance for a loss of the 50-day MA.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_THKgPnlIFyZfFzBQhiHP5AgDDEjRh_vxPRjs-MEVArUv0Tbu7_Napbow2YctS_jtfcW-qawhswtKDpc-CmXvgNNaufQ8JP5a59F7CDmzOwqekhulRO7uLlNrVigBORNtp_E6WPn-neMF0hpC_aeq7EdsE1cFQPmkn2CgMRqnlazyYeIfUfc3/s1600/SPXEW_Mar3.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_THKgPnlIFyZfFzBQhiHP5AgDDEjRh_vxPRjs-MEVArUv0Tbu7_Napbow2YctS_jtfcW-qawhswtKDpc-CmXvgNNaufQ8JP5a59F7CDmzOwqekhulRO7uLlNrVigBORNtp_E6WPn-neMF0hpC_aeq7EdsE1cFQPmkn2CgMRqnlazyYeIfUfc3/s1600/SPXEW_Mar3.png"/></a></div> <p>The Nasdaq is alsow holding range support and has its 200-day MA not far away. Technicals are net bearish. There isn't a whole lot of support to work with below its 200-day MA, but there should be good support here. This looks like a long trade, but don't hold on a loss of $22K.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIlJWm6CazK0Z7YnRHVuf1TiWZ8EJYbeLaNz6J6tQxWkm3drP0zVXEbgHhKn5U4DrZbuGy0zsKmIMGhifzhuba-OiTk5vwAKyuyvNYZcQvRBTKpuAxaJmPG5LD-IW5FHol4lgNbB9H4IypOHhnxSjEyqFSQyrzedxQX9RaLEn0pst60SapuKof/s1600/compq_mar3.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIlJWm6CazK0Z7YnRHVuf1TiWZ8EJYbeLaNz6J6tQxWkm3drP0zVXEbgHhKn5U4DrZbuGy0zsKmIMGhifzhuba-OiTk5vwAKyuyvNYZcQvRBTKpuAxaJmPG5LD-IW5FHol4lgNbB9H4IypOHhnxSjEyqFSQyrzedxQX9RaLEn0pst60SapuKof/s1600/compq_mar3.png"/></a></div> <p>I haven't posted a weekly chart in a while, but it might be worth paying attention too now that war is in the air. The S&P has the potential for a rounding top, but it will take a few weeks for this to play out - enough.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-Vz670PnosOnJ1EJDa-Rm7wiOTbXVhKT9IXeUNeUdNLWng5X05ZpBePUjRGtOzaPjQ0U-owhtSOIBeHEZ7xOZFrhp3XwSxP-MaOXccFKxzNW3836H2wzLm_fpAG0c4brJSz_y-UFAhHdmObUcoLI_Krh04I-coHOBK2bsdHV3E6598R8SrmUv/s1600/spx_mar3w.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-Vz670PnosOnJ1EJDa-Rm7wiOTbXVhKT9IXeUNeUdNLWng5X05ZpBePUjRGtOzaPjQ0U-owhtSOIBeHEZ7xOZFrhp3XwSxP-MaOXccFKxzNW3836H2wzLm_fpAG0c4brJSz_y-UFAhHdmObUcoLI_Krh04I-coHOBK2bsdHV3E6598R8SrmUv/s1600/spx_mar3w.png"/></a></div> <p>Bitcoin hasn't broken support and has so far managed to stay above its 20-day MA. I think there is a decent long trade here too, despite the generally bearish technical picture.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMeuOoGAIJHkAv70gk0mB42AG0w9LigMMs5sa1sL7QkruBIdoBtVhhS__f2omNO6JDAMaZASryNkVrWeTXvrFLunIv7EAPM6hOS3_EC_pmWA9LWUsE6iepB5P-RGDPhz0je_lpVLCYMO3KXLnwqcfGeMIJOQHDvqx9dQGWXM-14tb_d-SHF1Ds/s1600/btcusd_mar3.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMeuOoGAIJHkAv70gk0mB42AG0w9LigMMs5sa1sL7QkruBIdoBtVhhS__f2omNO6JDAMaZASryNkVrWeTXvrFLunIv7EAPM6hOS3_EC_pmWA9LWUsE6iepB5P-RGDPhz0je_lpVLCYMO3KXLnwqcfGeMIJOQHDvqx9dQGWXM-14tb_d-SHF1Ds/s1600/btcusd_mar3.png"/></a></div> <p>Semiconductors could have the most to say as their recent exposure has broght them into the limelight. The measured move target was deftly reached and the index now sits on its 50-day MA.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZ4HTyeGyBzmDdBtUdl9ZmH2RMYvyCYQetJDX2wMONGDn199GwOT0ajWkDpVNwNUtFDZ6nK8PfjTZ-9GQWXpTSf1fd_XXJ7NT4DuvzCF2PcCYxwEf_jJfzsXqgi_qUOCEWkkMi4QaQDDzgxr79wwdOaDdiZsfdjSXRJNkf-yZ_vlap0ETgimpw/s1600/sox_mar3.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZ4HTyeGyBzmDdBtUdl9ZmH2RMYvyCYQetJDX2wMONGDn199GwOT0ajWkDpVNwNUtFDZ6nK8PfjTZ-9GQWXpTSf1fd_XXJ7NT4DuvzCF2PcCYxwEf_jJfzsXqgi_qUOCEWkkMi4QaQDDzgxr79wwdOaDdiZsfdjSXRJNkf-yZ_vlap0ETgimpw/s1600/sox_mar3.png"/></a></div> <p>Given global events it has been surprising how resilient markets have proven to be. Aggresive traders can use support tests to play for a move to test channel resistance, or even wait for a breakout. However, as this war is likely to last a while, I would look for bears to take control of the markets over the coming weeks and months. But as long as markets remain within current trading ranges, all the headlines you read of collapse is just noise.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-9021703544260946442026-03-01T21:50:00.000+00:002026-03-01T21:50:00.515+00:00<p>Aside from a rise in oil prices, which were already trending higher prior to Israel's, and "tag-along" U.S., strike on Iran it remains to be seen what long term impact this will have on markets. I'm always looking at how indices relate relative to their 200-day MAs, and since the latter part of 2025 to now, this relationship is no longer overbought and not the risk I thought coming into 2026. However, we do have well-defined support levels to work with and these should be tested early next week. Again, a loss here wouldn't be hugely damaging as we have 200-day MAs below to offer support. What will be damaging is, as probably expected, the Iran conflict extends into a series of terrorist attacks on U.S. interests to goad the U.S. (and Israel?) into putting boots-on-the-ground in Iran. The Middle East is never a clear in-and-out, and there is no record of success for the U.S. to lean on here. In such a scenario, we have the makings of drip-drip losses in the market to turn the broader trend bearish. If such losses undercut 200-day MAs, then we would be heading into good buying territory for long-term investors, although news headlines will be negative.</p> <p>The S&P finished Friday with a 'sell' trigger on higher volume distribution. There has been quite a few distribution days in February, and given the <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/prediction-market-bets-us-iran-airstrikes-b2929588.html">dubious gains</a> from prediction markets in advance of the strikes on Iran, there is reason to wonder how much of February's selling was governed by insider information on 'possible' conflict; Friday's distribution before Saturday's airstrikes in a range-bound market - where historic volume action is typically light across market trading ranges - is certainly "odd". Either way, we will never know, and we can only work with the information presented to us, and as it stands, the S&P is a "hold".</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjlh8JuvY4p9Myz3pqrLDXab8NzCk91RTufAhxM8Z-9ummS6XCIHiX-_hSN_dTOL25_cjGEFt__21L5XYSxK6bvOxCEBPi7LXFjXGsksTqHOJ-oNUhkdGPRKAfEtnlM6-0OZrlbu_9-YO8L2H2sfkY8Tz5IXEPEeD4MtUIlGDjf5gY-ob6l9jb7/s1600/SPX_Feb26.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjlh8JuvY4p9Myz3pqrLDXab8NzCk91RTufAhxM8Z-9ummS6XCIHiX-_hSN_dTOL25_cjGEFt__21L5XYSxK6bvOxCEBPi7LXFjXGsksTqHOJ-oNUhkdGPRKAfEtnlM6-0OZrlbu_9-YO8L2H2sfkY8Tz5IXEPEeD4MtUIlGDjf5gY-ob6l9jb7/s1600/SPX_Feb26.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>The Nasdaq also flagged a distribution day, but not to the same degree as the S&P. The 200-day MA might get to range support at the same time the index falls to test this same support. Technicals are mixed, with only the MACD on a weak 'buy' trigger with an extended period of relative underperformance to the Russell 2000 ($IWM). In such a scenario I would look for a break of support, but let's see what happens.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1zhDj4v8gXbAE6Jv512aZzpnOl1fXg7bRV8S2uijs3hf_R9Hcrv3zoGdlYDEe_ggVGHXSGoWE7t19n5_ZC4qfIN6xdzKGvFpj_YJf6gX9vrSWqzvlAn0-bWEJQPRIGZd6SxQS0nVufWG-z6_jfNgn8YEdKOFi656SEIjKV3i8NKIMSIqAxPPE/s1600/nas_feb26.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1zhDj4v8gXbAE6Jv512aZzpnOl1fXg7bRV8S2uijs3hf_R9Hcrv3zoGdlYDEe_ggVGHXSGoWE7t19n5_ZC4qfIN6xdzKGvFpj_YJf6gX9vrSWqzvlAn0-bWEJQPRIGZd6SxQS0nVufWG-z6_jfNgn8YEdKOFi656SEIjKV3i8NKIMSIqAxPPE/s1600/nas_feb26.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) may be the most immune to negative headlines(???). There was no distribution and it's holding 50-day MA support. On-balance-volume and stochastics are positive, a neutral ADX, and a MACD while trending down, but still above the bullish zero line. Again, let's see how the index reacts to the weekend news.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfToItvijBNBa-Nt2_5gBef-rOv3UpZ11nwXyYf0bjKO5-PgPj2Ok7G_yjnJ1O3nuGPVOfZG3E6V80QsNK9JTs1iDO6ipZOibg2vpeNyD_G6xl9XXNMkngZ2w56tGlMKLWW6qwWHHwoT8gUVyBS1cgslHhyRAt25lnkk6OGFQpRG1rRPeBp-_9/s1600/iwm_feb26b.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfToItvijBNBa-Nt2_5gBef-rOv3UpZ11nwXyYf0bjKO5-PgPj2Ok7G_yjnJ1O3nuGPVOfZG3E6V80QsNK9JTs1iDO6ipZOibg2vpeNyD_G6xl9XXNMkngZ2w56tGlMKLWW6qwWHHwoT8gUVyBS1cgslHhyRAt25lnkk6OGFQpRG1rRPeBp-_9/s1600/iwm_feb26b.png"/></a></div> <p>Bitcoin has acted relatively quietly to the Iranian news. There is a swing trade here based on the break of $65K or $70K. It's an oversold market, so if there is a downward break I wouldn't expect it to stay weak for long.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjc4pP2Oh_hUKsHBQM4U1DUUhvr_GYTR38mEn-pnygm1SW-o2o-Bpk3Jx9iA1qCBXu83zcYhmTSJjOEpR0JUPLds6fdQGnUFmDfDNMsSdGw_QaWX1q5jAEu2d7OwRH463XuPgLrDeM8NocmO6TagNHWHtK1lkbshi8UANSSjB5TrcrQWUWhPgqm/s1600/btcusd_mar1.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjc4pP2Oh_hUKsHBQM4U1DUUhvr_GYTR38mEn-pnygm1SW-o2o-Bpk3Jx9iA1qCBXu83zcYhmTSJjOEpR0JUPLds6fdQGnUFmDfDNMsSdGw_QaWX1q5jAEu2d7OwRH463XuPgLrDeM8NocmO6TagNHWHtK1lkbshi8UANSSjB5TrcrQWUWhPgqm/s1600/btcusd_mar1.png"/></a></div> <p>An interesting week lies ahead, but this is likely just the start of something, not the end.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-22439104658889995432026-02-26T22:29:00.001+00:002026-02-26T22:35:45.944+00:00<p>I haven't commented much on the Semiconductor Index, but yesterday brought with it a small candlestick and a gap higher that tagged the measured move target. While today saw a 3%+ loss and a potential bearish evening star. The loss came with a MACD trigger and CCI 'sell'; the MACD 'sell' faking off yesterday's 'buy' signal. Aggressive shorts could look for a test of the 50-day MA (a cover price), but in broader terms the trading range is the dominant pattern.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdbDc1OXZBL61-ziaf7gk4_P40p7yG-bilxkrr6DfxT8_yTcsAHbXpFRh7Y05duaXGfijNJEiOJBpsI3luiPhyphenhyphenVK9bhialHtjl_2vJ8q3X-0lE_l4OtMSQsX8pXBbvijyBRoSZbWEV6EA5s5yBsaaPRjbwLvGGn7FU_2tnHQx3_wll_w2ABRJe/s1600/SOX_Feb26.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdbDc1OXZBL61-ziaf7gk4_P40p7yG-bilxkrr6DfxT8_yTcsAHbXpFRh7Y05duaXGfijNJEiOJBpsI3luiPhyphenhyphenVK9bhialHtjl_2vJ8q3X-0lE_l4OtMSQsX8pXBbvijyBRoSZbWEV6EA5s5yBsaaPRjbwLvGGn7FU_2tnHQx3_wll_w2ABRJe/s1600/SOX_Feb26.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>The equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 is the only other index on a bullish signal. Buyers were able to drive a move out from the bullish wedge to its 20-day MA. Today's action had the potential to be a rebuff from this moving average, but instead, the index was able to recover to close at the day's high. We also have a MACD trigger 'buy' and On-Balance-Volume 'buy', with the next upside target likely to be the 50-day MA.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjU5c8KhC9YCF-uRTEQXdoKmbZmOE-GIR_cd32vypgbHg5UKL8Ix184JKJNtxebMN4ETy1BHBFVp4R1j6Gh22KvbW55MntgNUvok0ByIOyUwn2bUFNJsIUcpsvK8fCgn9QaoMxYDYerWncwkkeEG7Xxi6PSqpAAjv9rAdDt-1LYkCtGxpqDGuYr/s1600/qfew_feb26.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjU5c8KhC9YCF-uRTEQXdoKmbZmOE-GIR_cd32vypgbHg5UKL8Ix184JKJNtxebMN4ETy1BHBFVp4R1j6Gh22KvbW55MntgNUvok0ByIOyUwn2bUFNJsIUcpsvK8fCgn9QaoMxYDYerWncwkkeEG7Xxi6PSqpAAjv9rAdDt-1LYkCtGxpqDGuYr/s1600/qfew_feb26.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) remains range bound between $255 an $270. Technicals are mixed, but favor bulls. A new MACD trigger 'buy' is in the offing and this might be the cue to drive a break of $270. Today's volume ranked as confirmed accumulation, so this may be a 'sneak' long play.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYmIdkwUU5oPjA8vTWTPqpDVMRgzf8QeVfiRlwUfWOGLb4PoUG_L_1NjjqXpJhiidor7IjFRP-1swBeeWNkKaSU7JZBzIqOI8f9dyFJcfYRp86b91atV0ICtuN7a7zifeNvF12zpGLIpyAFHPicZ5q_l1FwFXuMOw7lLYK8VrWYWFY35DCxJ5q/s1600/IWM_Feb26.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYmIdkwUU5oPjA8vTWTPqpDVMRgzf8QeVfiRlwUfWOGLb4PoUG_L_1NjjqXpJhiidor7IjFRP-1swBeeWNkKaSU7JZBzIqOI8f9dyFJcfYRp86b91atV0ICtuN7a7zifeNvF12zpGLIpyAFHPicZ5q_l1FwFXuMOw7lLYK8VrWYWFY35DCxJ5q/s1600/IWM_Feb26.png"/></a></div> <p>The equal-weighted S&P is riding channel support and isn't suggesting any immediate weakness in the rally.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7wGHiP9gQm016vs9zqH1YFwQJdZY9zrIZLC5ON2KJv5LaISt7bnsgONWvjX2yegy-GKHVgytRInLIVlV2lKIv_FxLK8P4daeQuoQ7EcNXPdWZnYYr5zruIPSKyIXAkc07xvTxdMxZAA0DkzElstYyrLSai2ydXdmOHY3y7aRj0t2jGud6dgWE/s1600/spxew_feb26.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7wGHiP9gQm016vs9zqH1YFwQJdZY9zrIZLC5ON2KJv5LaISt7bnsgONWvjX2yegy-GKHVgytRInLIVlV2lKIv_FxLK8P4daeQuoQ7EcNXPdWZnYYr5zruIPSKyIXAkc07xvTxdMxZAA0DkzElstYyrLSai2ydXdmOHY3y7aRj0t2jGud6dgWE/s1600/spxew_feb26.png"/></a></div> <p>The surprise is Bitcoin ($BTCUSD). The rebuttal off the 20-day MA looked destined for an undercut of $65K, but instead, buyers stepped in and brought the cryptocurrency above its 20-day MA. Today's narrow range day effectively confirms the bullishness of yesterday's buying. The next upside target is its 50-day MA.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJYKNW4uQLDOUBP2ma2G20i4xrMAZDPdVBwyGaJHgpT620zDdM14QWzctglk4YNNII6ftlXb6qDypj4Di0aBhuxuYcJR1Gq0WyD6XEVv7sE7Ax0DcH2khJF2C5JHqZ9gnF5lUaN854Db5pOd-FIKdrPHraMgHRmDaIsKueaej0p6cF_Xj4ymo6/s1600/btcusd_feb26.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJYKNW4uQLDOUBP2ma2G20i4xrMAZDPdVBwyGaJHgpT620zDdM14QWzctglk4YNNII6ftlXb6qDypj4Di0aBhuxuYcJR1Gq0WyD6XEVv7sE7Ax0DcH2khJF2C5JHqZ9gnF5lUaN854Db5pOd-FIKdrPHraMgHRmDaIsKueaej0p6cF_Xj4ymo6/s1600/btcusd_feb26.png"/></a></div> <p>For tomorrow, look for long opportunities in the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100, Bitcoin and Russell 2000. </p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-74974797499449262112026-02-24T23:39:00.002+00:002026-02-24T23:39:47.697+00:00<p>Bitcoin lost ground off its failed test of the 20-day MA. It's now pushing for a retest of the bullish piercing pattern from the start of February. In addition, it's very close to reaching the measured move target marked by the red-hashed line in the chart.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCVRAaA_4dDSmhf85dsCvUXcEetia3BKWVNnhLfM6NDa33X_D6rtDlQrmH5i6sWgugm-ZMJap7rJL93itR0ljzUhmxmMmEUX-Z7s90gxtPRiww-gHvEN0tSQOnv1hiXDA355fDaMIMIQvymQ9C8_tsthp0Ps0kSkvc0c21fs5hIeqn74hcDIaH/s1600/btcusd_feb24.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCVRAaA_4dDSmhf85dsCvUXcEetia3BKWVNnhLfM6NDa33X_D6rtDlQrmH5i6sWgugm-ZMJap7rJL93itR0ljzUhmxmMmEUX-Z7s90gxtPRiww-gHvEN0tSQOnv1hiXDA355fDaMIMIQvymQ9C8_tsthp0Ps0kSkvc0c21fs5hIeqn74hcDIaH/s1600/btcusd_feb24.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>Not a lot has changed since my last update. Range bound markets are not the most exciting, despite what look like big daily shifts. Last week, in the Russell 2000 ($IWM) we had a couple of days with upper 'spikes' that denotes excessive supply. Today's gains sets up for another challenge of those spike highs tomorrow. Technicals are mixed with bullish On-Balance-Volume and Stochastics offset by bearish MACD and +DI/-DI; although with the ADX at 11, trend-driven technicals carry less weight. The index is still outperforming the Nasdaq, which may be the most bullish thing to say about the Small Caps index. There may be an aggressive short for a move above $265, but if the momentum into this price is strong, then it may be prudent to step aside or cover if already short.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_G7pIeG68ryKrWHL2B-oMC-X0Yhe7UK7P-Y-oxqAE3R3gLtAzEsWWWwArWL1ZRpYR750PwEXH0c-cRKmxOb5DV45J8T965ITxaR0UUZou4ddZPUcO0mFIRap1IO0CXwGX_RGPgDTt2kxGc29RtwiSvE48a02bhuDl-2WGzrS2Q-hvo8x5xIiy/s1600/iwm_feb24.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_G7pIeG68ryKrWHL2B-oMC-X0Yhe7UK7P-Y-oxqAE3R3gLtAzEsWWWwArWL1ZRpYR750PwEXH0c-cRKmxOb5DV45J8T965ITxaR0UUZou4ddZPUcO0mFIRap1IO0CXwGX_RGPgDTt2kxGc29RtwiSvE48a02bhuDl-2WGzrS2Q-hvo8x5xIiy/s1600/iwm_feb24.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The equal-weighted S&P bounced off channel support, but not before a MACD trigger 'sell'. ADX is running below 20, so the trend isn't running at the same pace as at the start of the year.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKcda0jPp2lP9phsc6zhMPckC1a6qghMgIJ9jLEZUmK49QYi99cJ0mysWLcSar7RczxiqdrvqDHw6dCDPxwxARtl0uVnk6OdjinGQDvjwhM2J9YHtgxMLBuajdBQ1eWY_EQn7IUchTZhaQrA9LQqJcJhJ4kWVjQkmjtqxsay9w-dRw2oYfdDYK/s1600/spxew_feb24.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKcda0jPp2lP9phsc6zhMPckC1a6qghMgIJ9jLEZUmK49QYi99cJ0mysWLcSar7RczxiqdrvqDHw6dCDPxwxARtl0uVnk6OdjinGQDvjwhM2J9YHtgxMLBuajdBQ1eWY_EQn7IUchTZhaQrA9LQqJcJhJ4kWVjQkmjtqxsay9w-dRw2oYfdDYK/s1600/spxew_feb24.png"/></a></div> <p>The equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 had gone from a range bound support break to a bullish 'wedge'. Technicals are net bearish but there is pending 'buy' trigger in the MACD.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkDQh-EwtDS2g9ktXB3BDdmFWHAscifpiyMkONQvFok4ySA7rV1eZus65yxcM88duNj9q7bd3w82KMSuZ8PEzFA6yv6r3gy34pm1zhEkO5Gj2kVHWuVIw8Ci8T80IbBUTsr_ahv4uijcm3KGFnNSUc44BY-dcPYi_wdWvks8UVx_PQ8hmxPUlr/s1600/qqew_feb24.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkDQh-EwtDS2g9ktXB3BDdmFWHAscifpiyMkONQvFok4ySA7rV1eZus65yxcM88duNj9q7bd3w82KMSuZ8PEzFA6yv6r3gy34pm1zhEkO5Gj2kVHWuVIw8Ci8T80IbBUTsr_ahv4uijcm3KGFnNSUc44BY-dcPYi_wdWvks8UVx_PQ8hmxPUlr/s1600/qqew_feb24.png"/></a></div> <p>Not a whole lot on offer for tomorrow. Would like to see range support or resistance challenged for lead indices, but any such move would take a few days to develop.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-45532184796888882162026-02-17T23:07:00.002+00:002026-02-17T23:07:22.046+00:00<p>It was looking ugly for markets in early trading but buyers stepped in to bid markets up by the close. The S&P tagged support in what offered itself as a buying opportunity, although momentum is not fully oversold, which means a retest of the low (if markets bounce from here) is a strong possibility.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkCyQ7RNBn8GaXzG0cS1bzinZICPq5BBhyKC0PeqolmrqiRoRzX8GCr8YYF2fEO2hTzUULTZUCPcqGHjs_jJe7p7fxElYqA3fSkNyvktkQNT9aFknJncRSQAtyGJf6U3PJnB75LfKIe6abLF1v6nRiw2tl-h2NO17jvFpta8SI621xBB-F7LC8/s1600/spx_feb17.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkCyQ7RNBn8GaXzG0cS1bzinZICPq5BBhyKC0PeqolmrqiRoRzX8GCr8YYF2fEO2hTzUULTZUCPcqGHjs_jJe7p7fxElYqA3fSkNyvktkQNT9aFknJncRSQAtyGJf6U3PJnB75LfKIe6abLF1v6nRiw2tl-h2NO17jvFpta8SI621xBB-F7LC8/s1600/spx_feb17.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) successfully tested 'bull flag' support from within its trading range. Technicals are mixed, but the index continues to outperform peers as of from November. Trading volume was not particulary high, although it was enough to return a 'buy' trigger for On-Balance-Volume, with technicals in no-mans land.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhK76bIJRbSmD2XVToDaf8s0Cf91C9hnx5tIjiI0eQ6mFaOMXEonC7MKMxdblhbI0RBNOWzNQ4LJeJwu3g7hErRLdHlzjv4NEta4_c_iSroF_VVt0rt2g2StJZpbARVHHoud5EuTi3z4EHbKKEYJE3WGOBP_xAmNOEPiyHIXox-C7IPKC2W-ydG/s1600/iw_feb17.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhK76bIJRbSmD2XVToDaf8s0Cf91C9hnx5tIjiI0eQ6mFaOMXEonC7MKMxdblhbI0RBNOWzNQ4LJeJwu3g7hErRLdHlzjv4NEta4_c_iSroF_VVt0rt2g2StJZpbARVHHoud5EuTi3z4EHbKKEYJE3WGOBP_xAmNOEPiyHIXox-C7IPKC2W-ydG/s1600/iw_feb17.png"/></a></div> <p>The Nasdaq had a similar day to the S&P, but it's intraday low was not enough to tag support. This test will likely take another few days to play out.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOxKEkuMhWsYb99QbmIf9xhSOn1JIceBcsa4D44YPOqUpWmDTSQxVagko3tfNUlojoFOYwjF4iJQkvkzAlZsbjqGobq3tVQVVcl_b-VF59ddKKc2OyUfHuV_BLDSnbDIfIU81Z4Im781dXmZnNe8vERhDviWFgrptWwwglq4trmD7C3L48FIGh/s1600/compq_feb17.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOxKEkuMhWsYb99QbmIf9xhSOn1JIceBcsa4D44YPOqUpWmDTSQxVagko3tfNUlojoFOYwjF4iJQkvkzAlZsbjqGobq3tVQVVcl_b-VF59ddKKc2OyUfHuV_BLDSnbDIfIU81Z4Im781dXmZnNe8vERhDviWFgrptWwwglq4trmD7C3L48FIGh/s1600/compq_feb17.png"/></a></div> <p>The one index which is experiencing a technical breakdown is the equal weighted Nasdaq 100. Tomorrow will offer a 'buying' opportunity off the inside day, "harami" technical pattern; stops go on a loss of today's low.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJRAVu3-HB-xzh2LN6ZG1W8TnLeqMV5j9K17YZdTUYUbecQdoUGpbLUxFLFKFNWc2sWLd88Dzue9vJQzcFpY__RZ1YaVjxCaicmpdZOvE5QiG8PRRN1v2nhlof3jqzgBpcwZBdt6II0h2obHQT-55-0fEJzgUqSCEwGeB7UVlA0I_Ampk83Yew/s1600/qqew_feb17.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJRAVu3-HB-xzh2LN6ZG1W8TnLeqMV5j9K17YZdTUYUbecQdoUGpbLUxFLFKFNWc2sWLd88Dzue9vJQzcFpY__RZ1YaVjxCaicmpdZOvE5QiG8PRRN1v2nhlof3jqzgBpcwZBdt6II0h2obHQT-55-0fEJzgUqSCEwGeB7UVlA0I_Ampk83Yew/s1600/qqew_feb17.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>Finally, Bitcoin is experiencing some trouble at its 20-day MA. A retest of $65K remains on the cards, although a push above the 20-day MA would likely seal the February reversal as the bottom. The MACD is the only 'buy' trigger for the asset.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9uvC4Y-_apruh4Sog3J9IjvNh6WkFLZ-HGSvhryel783SUGR783DQgl3uSHNYV3pqq6pbdvCNIPrthI3JpIkmzA-_7WeY1m2thXjT83ezs1kmgycgLiW7v-8GWTAVDsJIy5uiYEAG7dufi6GWG9TCY7v1XMjzRi7TlSPtk63ODMwB82wqzsW_/s1600/btcusd_feb17.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9uvC4Y-_apruh4Sog3J9IjvNh6WkFLZ-HGSvhryel783SUGR783DQgl3uSHNYV3pqq6pbdvCNIPrthI3JpIkmzA-_7WeY1m2thXjT83ezs1kmgycgLiW7v-8GWTAVDsJIy5uiYEAG7dufi6GWG9TCY7v1XMjzRi7TlSPtk63ODMwB82wqzsW_/s1600/btcusd_feb17.png"/></a></div> <p>For tomorrow, longs can look to the S&P, equal-weighted Nasdaq 100, and possibly Bitcoin for opportunities.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-65096916651863835582026-02-15T21:25:00.000+00:002026-02-15T21:25:00.152+00:00<p>Just as losses were softened by the range bound aspects of lead markets, same go for Friday's gains. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) managed a retest of what was a 'bull flag' with technicals net bearish.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFMIf4DWyED25WM3BrIV1vZW5SGTh5mHGV1_vtVzS2eYu1KeloX0NiQvA8J0LM2whkzXBrvnjcITK5mgm17YfVzIoqYn5OJMuY8kKWknE8o0RIXX_sPO5N5-Krog6OhmgSdwwNNsp3nhUxYi7SBkpzSF39tTwGNtZOEBSlOEQ3yYoT0-c-S8RZ/s1600/iwm_feb15.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFMIf4DWyED25WM3BrIV1vZW5SGTh5mHGV1_vtVzS2eYu1KeloX0NiQvA8J0LM2whkzXBrvnjcITK5mgm17YfVzIoqYn5OJMuY8kKWknE8o0RIXX_sPO5N5-Krog6OhmgSdwwNNsp3nhUxYi7SBkpzSF39tTwGNtZOEBSlOEQ3yYoT0-c-S8RZ/s1600/iwm_feb15.png"/></a></div> <a name='more'></a><p>The S&P tagged range support on low volume, but closed the day on a neutral doji. Technicals remain mostly bearish but the index is enjoying a relative performance advantage over the Nasdaq.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBINViRqf3AQ9TEMYL1WFky0zkCeERTsiXoh4RyWk0LZUv0xYdVSzASWZawwcFHMiQ12yb5UOusQvxWs49mMtIiZDp5CzvJv_We3qQs6KRZPsAd3ZiVdm2nDf_ayGO2ikvyzbO7dqwF1IkB-EcNdU6qvjJHBU-pAvS39H5gUXflrAlRbuVTvSI/s1600/spx_feb15.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBINViRqf3AQ9TEMYL1WFky0zkCeERTsiXoh4RyWk0LZUv0xYdVSzASWZawwcFHMiQ12yb5UOusQvxWs49mMtIiZDp5CzvJv_We3qQs6KRZPsAd3ZiVdm2nDf_ayGO2ikvyzbO7dqwF1IkB-EcNdU6qvjJHBU-pAvS39H5gUXflrAlRbuVTvSI/s1600/spx_feb15.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The Nasdaq finished with a 'spinning top' candlestick that tagged the February low, but not enough to break it. Larger support remains at the November swing low which may see a test early next week. Technicals are net bearish but not fully oversold either, although a test of November lows would do this.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3n5ohdrcGxqN9q0-6zM6kq2Fy-aWJ5fRCMssujyF3YeHZacN3VJIO9HYN4ko9cg3njCuNd1RLvm1cJfTLsJ9_WBLR_oszEhW4QQyZ9POZp8XHDxRTKD-sePt9bqFmx5zWnK2v2CQcMFn7GC1JcdACaLtF9kRHFJYo_nFXwmsSEFvo0gv4ENAn/s1600/compq_feb15.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3n5ohdrcGxqN9q0-6zM6kq2Fy-aWJ5fRCMssujyF3YeHZacN3VJIO9HYN4ko9cg3njCuNd1RLvm1cJfTLsJ9_WBLR_oszEhW4QQyZ9POZp8XHDxRTKD-sePt9bqFmx5zWnK2v2CQcMFn7GC1JcdACaLtF9kRHFJYo_nFXwmsSEFvo0gv4ENAn/s1600/compq_feb15.png"/></a></div> <p>Bitcoin is in an odd position. The low volume retest did stage a rally, but the rally wasn't accompanied by any meaningful volume and is at risk of failing out. Technicals have moved out of a net bearish picture with a new (weak) MACD trigger 'buy'. The measured move target down remains one to watch for, although I think a larger rally is not far away.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnh1ahhSUQ07WRCPSp88R9muhjxZYvjyiyIC1Ri5Rz2pfMo5PSHv8Nku0Kur91W64Om3KJecJs89UWf4X_AFO8cE51mZHTV_RcccribovKGbY3SPHpgwUi7MgeqzVdsk-OmpntvVOwt7jluC5cDgFUH3-ZAA3yNHybHF1o0qOBJgCCjAoDO7EK/s1600/btcusd_feb15.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnh1ahhSUQ07WRCPSp88R9muhjxZYvjyiyIC1Ri5Rz2pfMo5PSHv8Nku0Kur91W64Om3KJecJs89UWf4X_AFO8cE51mZHTV_RcccribovKGbY3SPHpgwUi7MgeqzVdsk-OmpntvVOwt7jluC5cDgFUH3-ZAA3yNHybHF1o0qOBJgCCjAoDO7EK/s1600/btcusd_feb15.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>For the coming week, Bitcoin is probably the trade of choice as the risk:reward favors longs. The back-and-forth of lead indices inside trading range levels leaves them in neutral territory - neither long nor short.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-25369249674721229002026-02-12T22:36:00.002+00:002026-02-12T22:36:34.910+00:00<p>Nasty set of red candlesticks painted the market, but most of these occurred within the context of trading ranges. It will be a question of balance as Materials and Staples make gains, as Technology suffers. Bitcoin has been on to a hiding, but the retest of the capitulation is coming on modest action and lower volume - the kind of trading you want to see for a tradeable bottom.</p> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) took a 2% hit on higher volume distribution, with the 50-day MA coming into range as a support test. A bullish play would be for a tag of $255 support followed by an end-of-day close above the 50-day MA. Technicals show 'sell' triggers for MACD, On-Balance-Volume and +DI/-DI. Things only get bearish if $255 support is lost.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgT5dksrzU41jFsxVYTw9IaI9tJ2sXJOu87obFTTUv-9pAZBTCns6r-n4gxdj9gMqeifhnsKe7FJTxrhuqkyz47LTR8k0SIQA9-yCkHlwL01buxBl6szw7ulSdRUhumlGUww0zMLZXlvxjIC-E2qdvAsJpb_MusZeGpRN8jO3VUYLp8HlusK7f_/s1600/iwm_feb12.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgT5dksrzU41jFsxVYTw9IaI9tJ2sXJOu87obFTTUv-9pAZBTCns6r-n4gxdj9gMqeifhnsKe7FJTxrhuqkyz47LTR8k0SIQA9-yCkHlwL01buxBl6szw7ulSdRUhumlGUww0zMLZXlvxjIC-E2qdvAsJpb_MusZeGpRN8jO3VUYLp8HlusK7f_/s1600/iwm_feb12.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>More of a worry is the equal weighted S&P; early gains were quickly reversed, leaving a nasty spike that has a toppy look to it. Technicals are still positive and the 20-day MA has playes as support swing the swing low in November. I think a test of the 50-day MA is probably due here, and that might be the buying opportunity.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJUDJdJ8DQYjkHT4piT3rFzPZPeqlRisa4RSkkc-G9NF7QsIlUbeWGaBKfqMkeiyqmBjZ76w-FZIfElWMiK67a3AOCBB-6JXSrUGrD08b4vbZif4zFzFvE7tE_OvuYI2HIYwyzYOPxt5j-PuER4U68tcGeerkNoFX65bxst1COXITCNThrceX0/s1600/spxew_feb12.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJUDJdJ8DQYjkHT4piT3rFzPZPeqlRisa4RSkkc-G9NF7QsIlUbeWGaBKfqMkeiyqmBjZ76w-FZIfElWMiK67a3AOCBB-6JXSrUGrD08b4vbZif4zFzFvE7tE_OvuYI2HIYwyzYOPxt5j-PuER4U68tcGeerkNoFX65bxst1COXITCNThrceX0/s1600/spxew_feb12.png"/></a></div> <p>The S&P traversed the breadth of its trading range as it undercut both 20-day and 50-day MAs, and leaving it on course for a test of 6,800. Volume rose in distribution, and MACD, On-Balance-Volume and +DI/-DI are bearish. Tomorrow could be a big day for markets.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihmBCkzW1ccGCKXlL4DUBk5sisUgyCpgusht5saCwXaJ4SlT8Uo5_CTH7X4w1_RE6RsIoBTCr5YyYklMZj-czD-5jFAyIh1pBq92Aoa4gvH-_SYctg-0tFS5yrBXGZmYvYRnVqeUo0OAnzlgfDQNamilRVZW4R_waR-M08EnTGTZbcPMZouEwU/s1600/spx_feb12.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihmBCkzW1ccGCKXlL4DUBk5sisUgyCpgusht5saCwXaJ4SlT8Uo5_CTH7X4w1_RE6RsIoBTCr5YyYklMZj-czD-5jFAyIh1pBq92Aoa4gvH-_SYctg-0tFS5yrBXGZmYvYRnVqeUo0OAnzlgfDQNamilRVZW4R_waR-M08EnTGTZbcPMZouEwU/s1600/spx_feb12.png"/></a></div> <p>The Nasdaq failed in its retest of former ascending triangle support - turned resistance. It's now heading for a test of $22.2K trading range support, with net bearish technicals; a loss of this support test opens up for much worse because there is little positive on offer here.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXt7I2IfvpBiJ-ohEQ15eyS6lXEMyNUfHKXqsdKuGQ41vR9F1_XZRsewxJYU7D5MdLecmVV31EHHSKYjT9NZ1x05VtS9AcFSpzpzDvXroaRuirEkbvzYKmNoEjf-sqjrt6pYKEvz8bp1HNh8_Uaf-nbvk66N2HoytGcw33sbHmzlu2G6tVlel9/s1600/compq_feb12.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXt7I2IfvpBiJ-ohEQ15eyS6lXEMyNUfHKXqsdKuGQ41vR9F1_XZRsewxJYU7D5MdLecmVV31EHHSKYjT9NZ1x05VtS9AcFSpzpzDvXroaRuirEkbvzYKmNoEjf-sqjrt6pYKEvz8bp1HNh8_Uaf-nbvk66N2HoytGcw33sbHmzlu2G6tVlel9/s1600/compq_feb12.png"/></a></div> <p>While the equal weighted Nasdaq 100 played to a picture-perfect short on the loss-and-retest of channel support resistance. A loss of $130.70 would open up for a measured move lower with a target of $120.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFH6VEUKzPEJ2CBnUjHJeDe4jC7_C-SxA9OICcrYBW55alPmnb7IFxFXR29ttyN_cDeCkx7tK_6unNr7w87AJGgDuVukM0OR1EZodhiYx1eYstpqLqYswG1Bpo7ey39C5iuEES-tTo9FTeoHPImqq-N33CN6LhCa7YVctbmNB7s-sGqUHqnye0/s1600/NASEW_Feb12.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFH6VEUKzPEJ2CBnUjHJeDe4jC7_C-SxA9OICcrYBW55alPmnb7IFxFXR29ttyN_cDeCkx7tK_6unNr7w87AJGgDuVukM0OR1EZodhiYx1eYstpqLqYswG1Bpo7ey39C5iuEES-tTo9FTeoHPImqq-N33CN6LhCa7YVctbmNB7s-sGqUHqnye0/s1600/NASEW_Feb12.png"/></a></div> <p>The trade of the day could be Bitcoin. This has nearly halved in value since its 2025 peak, but since the start of February capitulation it has drifted back towards a retest on lower volume. I'm looking for a smaller spike low (I have stuck a GTC order at 63,310) to mark the bottom (or an equivalent bullish reversal candlestick).</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkVgWFwdalR7f9wmDAcnGCOYZQuWas572EoFk0KGMIeDAdMG6PgVGAeVwJZz2ydTUCkx1Lm6wIGveyd0zn7aFZ0wfHllnshgjgrzsfkvnu3vXzGKLFbt2bX9KoVKeeoJHB1xCarnsP-Lhy24BttvQ44iwh6o7pLLyIvcnMtEzQ6P4VdExSPkuv/s1600/btcusd_feb12.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkVgWFwdalR7f9wmDAcnGCOYZQuWas572EoFk0KGMIeDAdMG6PgVGAeVwJZz2ydTUCkx1Lm6wIGveyd0zn7aFZ0wfHllnshgjgrzsfkvnu3vXzGKLFbt2bX9KoVKeeoJHB1xCarnsP-Lhy24BttvQ44iwh6o7pLLyIvcnMtEzQ6P4VdExSPkuv/s1600/btcusd_feb12.png"/></a></div> <p>For tomorrow, watch for an expansion of selling in the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 and a bullish step-up for Bitcoin.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-90015292210919682162026-02-10T22:22:00.002+00:002026-02-10T22:22:17.548+00:00<p>The S&P and Nasdaq have stalled rallies that haven't yet challenged resistance of their respective trading ranges. There is a case the Nasdaq has come up against resistance, that was once support, of the prior bullish ascending triangle. This level is also near converged 20-day and 50-day MAs. It could be a shorting opportunity with a move to trading range support.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgiL-Dajv4lj_STw166R1XqvOy4Uty4hJR0RC2ls8lY6h3MyMMPbj2-J6CPh2aYrViDWYLqbo3Dxfk5vxu7Smw6HxRfpjmx3AcJldBfYvwxozwvq3Rv1bj5oPkdv83_hA62w52hOiHUUV4bo-fQk8kPHSLhvc9y8EHHDM7c_b0XOsHA9_4jzD6w/s1600/compq_feb10.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgiL-Dajv4lj_STw166R1XqvOy4Uty4hJR0RC2ls8lY6h3MyMMPbj2-J6CPh2aYrViDWYLqbo3Dxfk5vxu7Smw6HxRfpjmx3AcJldBfYvwxozwvq3Rv1bj5oPkdv83_hA62w52hOiHUUV4bo-fQk8kPHSLhvc9y8EHHDM7c_b0XOsHA9_4jzD6w/s1600/compq_feb10.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>The S&P is in neutral territory despite today's higher volume distribution. Technicals are mixed with MACD, On-Balance-Volume and +DI/-DI in bearish territory.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgj84q0Y9RcjYs0IsQmZL8UK_4D9X24Ks5pzDuc3ho_sZPQvxe11c5VnledfmZEq_JbThMTe_UNvWeNJcJHljnqC3-qlG_fhYP8S3F1MrNAsqmauppIfsIAV2B1STuVIatYBq75UrVniXbsvBTD4G6OfxzQF8vMe5MuO7p6os4273dOPtlJ0gr-/s1600/SPX_Feb10.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgj84q0Y9RcjYs0IsQmZL8UK_4D9X24Ks5pzDuc3ho_sZPQvxe11c5VnledfmZEq_JbThMTe_UNvWeNJcJHljnqC3-qlG_fhYP8S3F1MrNAsqmauppIfsIAV2B1STuVIatYBq75UrVniXbsvBTD4G6OfxzQF8vMe5MuO7p6os4273dOPtlJ0gr-/s1600/SPX_Feb10.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) is another index in neutral terriory, although an argument could be made for a breakout from the bull flag. Technicals are mostly bullish although the MACD is still on trigger 'sell'.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7mmvaiXST0fNx8FFqDJkdGnelPo_Kd6kTPf_Y1faHlnaYnyGW6XWT9cSYco4MDcuWT0cZ7tW01jT1WdFk2wCI8HGyRuWBIhtFeTN2-AGDmZug42NgNlwwBwMk-YA4sb0vQQ7NRDcFMtfFXzJTUxAEnHbLQ5YY27vOCYQbCL1BxcG0jq7MBIHe/s1600/iwm_feb10.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7mmvaiXST0fNx8FFqDJkdGnelPo_Kd6kTPf_Y1faHlnaYnyGW6XWT9cSYco4MDcuWT0cZ7tW01jT1WdFk2wCI8HGyRuWBIhtFeTN2-AGDmZug42NgNlwwBwMk-YA4sb0vQQ7NRDcFMtfFXzJTUxAEnHbLQ5YY27vOCYQbCL1BxcG0jq7MBIHe/s1600/iwm_feb10.png"/></a></div> <p>Bitcoin may be slowly rolling over into a retest of $60K. Technicals are net bearish.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5atTc6LLuw4fuNxHysgo2FoXV_jTz1qzd_jUh6AJ1Y91ZI58NooBuvJSaIKW97kyu9sGi1KK_tuhNwCgKXAdrBDDL97VvjP565RYln03synkYfWDx1vRddePHsgSQx42IyMYTxKxaJGH3T0YZY2Dxta2HUBMHFW-3AUdIDhdlw8BDjKaKWfgD/s1600/bitcoin_feb10.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5atTc6LLuw4fuNxHysgo2FoXV_jTz1qzd_jUh6AJ1Y91ZI58NooBuvJSaIKW97kyu9sGi1KK_tuhNwCgKXAdrBDDL97VvjP565RYln03synkYfWDx1vRddePHsgSQx42IyMYTxKxaJGH3T0YZY2Dxta2HUBMHFW-3AUdIDhdlw8BDjKaKWfgD/s1600/bitcoin_feb10.png"/></a></div> <p>A shorting opportunity may be present in the equal weighted Nasdaq 100. The retest of resistance of the November swing low has come back with a "bearish cloud cover" candlestick that could expand with further losses.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiw5NSWwnTdd3CuKPtERrjqsDAeZvaRZg8rRfRamfm-hl4h_5I_Cn7S_eRVl-M1K1q8Uw780aPpdo7umCw6p-tuYmi0ffUso7ra-FVNKvgn6fy-EmmWgXcPbu0fJtvnMzlgEXIE71mzsr3Km9tVuZ_2Nxj2exewfjYNBZKaHJxqUftsFeOS8UyD/s1600/qqew_feb10.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiw5NSWwnTdd3CuKPtERrjqsDAeZvaRZg8rRfRamfm-hl4h_5I_Cn7S_eRVl-M1K1q8Uw780aPpdo7umCw6p-tuYmi0ffUso7ra-FVNKvgn6fy-EmmWgXcPbu0fJtvnMzlgEXIE71mzsr3Km9tVuZ_2Nxj2exewfjYNBZKaHJxqUftsFeOS8UyD/s1600/qqew_feb10.png"/></a></div> <p>For tomorrow, look for sellers to follow on from today's bearish candlesticks, but losses are unlikely to be big.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-57221363445182810072026-02-08T21:44:00.000+00:002026-02-08T21:44:04.763+00:00<p>With the tech sell-off clouding action in the S&P and Nasdaq we have to look elsewhere for positivity. And there is no lack of alternatives. The equal weighted S&P kicked on from its 'bull flag' breakout, posting a new high, and is well away from key support of 7,800 - meaning it has room for maneuver should tech weakness expand.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxodoaE7kKRb2MeTV8kTSvACygiYQdkJWWRJlZuSBOTPyZr8IsAwZLKGGoeDZ4att4g08Be0TvBkbn4QdlpkwIN9YOqUqoWh-YgIyV7RG609JdyUAQWM51I8e_ZwvZZAiEoJTJTwF7JmEDk7KESNof6IHtIZVm7dAHlx8LpTkqbUrmTsRoUxJQ/s1600/spxew_feb8.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxodoaE7kKRb2MeTV8kTSvACygiYQdkJWWRJlZuSBOTPyZr8IsAwZLKGGoeDZ4att4g08Be0TvBkbn4QdlpkwIN9YOqUqoWh-YgIyV7RG609JdyUAQWM51I8e_ZwvZZAiEoJTJTwF7JmEDk7KESNof6IHtIZVm7dAHlx8LpTkqbUrmTsRoUxJQ/s1600/spxew_feb8.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>Compared to the regular S&P - which is stuck inside a narrow range because of the weighted tech stocks - but not collapsing in a manner which was anticipated, leaving it in no-mans land for now despite Friday's big gain. For next week, the battle lines are 6,790 and 7,000. Anything else is just noise.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiY2cAxLS2EgRKR7jzPfTLPkTwnnEigG8hIOXaI8H4ghxya8w6l3_TZglNeiUuWsSpiMTxX36_5doRjlKz8t6oD78hWXOUhn7JXRXUMqBBqUJPjgcz0KJTqPomEWNWiKM3DgJcAfkJwaWxRalgVi_VTujyUk1FOsgOrFbzMn8gbKEQzw0atktkJ/s1600/spx_feb8.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiY2cAxLS2EgRKR7jzPfTLPkTwnnEigG8hIOXaI8H4ghxya8w6l3_TZglNeiUuWsSpiMTxX36_5doRjlKz8t6oD78hWXOUhn7JXRXUMqBBqUJPjgcz0KJTqPomEWNWiKM3DgJcAfkJwaWxRalgVi_VTujyUk1FOsgOrFbzMn8gbKEQzw0atktkJ/s1600/spx_feb8.png"/></a></div> <p>The Nasdaq had a trendline break, but like the S&P, it's really in trading range marked by 22K support and 24K resistance. Technicals are net negative and the index has been underperforming the Russell 2000 ($IWM) since last November.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgc1m6I1bh4doIrVtt3q1Nn1puJXVQTB12OxmbYBYNEyU_VH5xfirshZ0F5IhvUUhYvDI0X3_AxGGz2HKUE93ApxsNzBVSPrTJDHAC9Ptc_U9ksTN_vW-tmnuA3NTa4huplKDA4RrvuVKTfZv0ZlEIXDny_h361thOS2M4zzFS6JQZsNU1RO-Au/s1600/NAZ_Feb8.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgc1m6I1bh4doIrVtt3q1Nn1puJXVQTB12OxmbYBYNEyU_VH5xfirshZ0F5IhvUUhYvDI0X3_AxGGz2HKUE93ApxsNzBVSPrTJDHAC9Ptc_U9ksTN_vW-tmnuA3NTa4huplKDA4RrvuVKTfZv0ZlEIXDny_h361thOS2M4zzFS6JQZsNU1RO-Au/s1600/NAZ_Feb8.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 told a differnt story as it lost November swing low support having undercut its 200-day MA earlier during the week. Technicals are net negative, but the equal weighted comparsion to the S&P has fallen off a cliff since the start of the year. There is only one game in town, and it's not the Nasdaq 100.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiY3GjmcJGvLfnc4b6u5XXevDctt0pZyE3mEx9dkq1Ixy-z7pF3QsUdJEwc8Gcl6c1inAYw-90hW9thvATwN80al0BrvbJiEU4Mcm3ZJh-D7FJUp6zaWxdn-_4T5IHS7o-KWwpM5_p7F_j3OpewGQc-CJKoSEb5HfxSx7QOED0PkyHWNrc7Gx38/s1600/NASEW_Feb8.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiY3GjmcJGvLfnc4b6u5XXevDctt0pZyE3mEx9dkq1Ixy-z7pF3QsUdJEwc8Gcl6c1inAYw-90hW9thvATwN80al0BrvbJiEU4Mcm3ZJh-D7FJUp6zaWxdn-_4T5IHS7o-KWwpM5_p7F_j3OpewGQc-CJKoSEb5HfxSx7QOED0PkyHWNrc7Gx38/s1600/NASEW_Feb8.png"/></a></div> <p>It has been easy to blame Semiconductors for losses in tech stocks, vut this index is still performing quite well.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgon2NZpMthYeFkO51bIII72BN_P0yniWuz5GjrOQnOccMX_XG-IybxDp5g3NidrwC1sDucjnoRZKcw3391oPjhqfIogzEvjvWk5jce_AJtO9hRWEH6jHKFPBCkxBr8zdFUsoRTZeLW2IrJdpeMFr7O-Z_mAyw7RU8aNzAESeu-umpA79I_aWgL/s1600/SOX_feb8.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgon2NZpMthYeFkO51bIII72BN_P0yniWuz5GjrOQnOccMX_XG-IybxDp5g3NidrwC1sDucjnoRZKcw3391oPjhqfIogzEvjvWk5jce_AJtO9hRWEH6jHKFPBCkxBr8zdFUsoRTZeLW2IrJdpeMFr7O-Z_mAyw7RU8aNzAESeu-umpA79I_aWgL/s1600/SOX_feb8.png"/></a></div> <p>Bitcoin has really suffered a fall from grace and it came very close to its measured move target. Watch for a retest of $60K, this might be the buying opportunity for those looking for the value trade. Last week's trade volume had the hallmarks of a capitulation. Technicals are net bearish but are working their way out of a deep oversold state.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7fQcpb1mmx7DUQK04GcJy672Z8F0Q82uY-UisC4tvxkjWH8bNm72vEWjAs0P_8hCnJdWWUzwtX0835hWnpiDFKQe99HPlB5Lc-yGdPOiLT1HSXAurJwfPfuHRdSZWfbzplGsuibWUDUZYMNr-_YJPnm9NIm8wcIOWORjnLvmfZ_HZbX2lGyLC/s1600/btcusd_feb8.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7fQcpb1mmx7DUQK04GcJy672Z8F0Q82uY-UisC4tvxkjWH8bNm72vEWjAs0P_8hCnJdWWUzwtX0835hWnpiDFKQe99HPlB5Lc-yGdPOiLT1HSXAurJwfPfuHRdSZWfbzplGsuibWUDUZYMNr-_YJPnm9NIm8wcIOWORjnLvmfZ_HZbX2lGyLC/s1600/btcusd_feb8.png"/></a></div> <p>The other index that is giving bulls a nice trade is the Russell 2000 ($IWM). There is no fanfare, just steady gains. Technicals are mixed given a MACD trigger 'sell', but other indicators are in a good place and the index is enjoying a relative period of outperformance (vs Nasdaq and S&P).</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhEkgRaRuGqSxOhHud5OdoUpd_Sg7RyDXaE77tCRpjGp2BJFvHqQ0TyPPZ2-hefnKmKUOkJZlR6k397swRQh01CxhC_j8E52VAE6lp07Uu_Mvlo8KefjGkBch-uS5h14fy0dBpumjtL6Nq21nAGaRkSckfF9B24CUX1_MmyiF1yUsS0Hs9FRaXJ/s1600/iwm_feb8.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhEkgRaRuGqSxOhHud5OdoUpd_Sg7RyDXaE77tCRpjGp2BJFvHqQ0TyPPZ2-hefnKmKUOkJZlR6k397swRQh01CxhC_j8E52VAE6lp07Uu_Mvlo8KefjGkBch-uS5h14fy0dBpumjtL6Nq21nAGaRkSckfF9B24CUX1_MmyiF1yUsS0Hs9FRaXJ/s1600/iwm_feb8.png"/></a></div> <p>Honorable mention to the Dow Industrials. If you are looking for a safe pair of hands then this is the index. A near perfect 45 degree trend, solid accumulation trend, net bullish technials, and a new MACD trigger 'buy' signal. Nothing not to like here.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEilAQc0HkHIpnjWd56mM46WNwpqMSq8ffJcCUqRfI7Atu6Suw6ElFkX6On4jWfPoJiz82GHCoOikUX_GwiF1TvmO3RoxDPstsY4Gko0OUzyr_ZBCC2rWQsz8uvoQRiob08sqMqNaoYClz-d9Dg9AEjaMq3-tOt6VBjixw1j9f6IjJ2WTfJvTn4-/s1600/indu_feb8.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEilAQc0HkHIpnjWd56mM46WNwpqMSq8ffJcCUqRfI7Atu6Suw6ElFkX6On4jWfPoJiz82GHCoOikUX_GwiF1TvmO3RoxDPstsY4Gko0OUzyr_ZBCC2rWQsz8uvoQRiob08sqMqNaoYClz-d9Dg9AEjaMq3-tOt6VBjixw1j9f6IjJ2WTfJvTn4-/s1600/indu_feb8.png"/></a></div> <p>There is some nice positivity bubbling under the surface when you look beyond the AI Tech stocks. I still want to see a test of 200-day MAs for these indices, but there may be a relataive seamless transition to new sectors that may delay that for another few months.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-11418246911864393292026-02-02T22:39:00.003+00:002026-02-02T22:39:45.088+00:00<p>A good start to the week has left indices nicely positioned to kick on with volume rising in accumulation. Best of this is probably the S&P. Today' buying left it on the cusp of a breakout, although it wasn't enough to reverse the 'sell' triggers in On-Balance-Volume and +DI/-DI. However, a breakout would likely turn these technicals net bullish once again.</p> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi41m3wQKhRI_rUH9e8_bfkf89tefHU5rIwRrkZiruore-KINeB34LLJpd-WQYw1ox0UrMcqbptYBA2f7DnddXQYGRTPwf9X8mVXd3mpmg6TN0v0MROS4tYbonT1jXNOQlmalw8DkPy941FpqzmUQd6ZrBFJbgNJ6Txg9JdAWAMhshCbafqepv9/s1600/spx_feb2.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi41m3wQKhRI_rUH9e8_bfkf89tefHU5rIwRrkZiruore-KINeB34LLJpd-WQYw1ox0UrMcqbptYBA2f7DnddXQYGRTPwf9X8mVXd3mpmg6TN0v0MROS4tYbonT1jXNOQlmalw8DkPy941FpqzmUQd6ZrBFJbgNJ6Txg9JdAWAMhshCbafqepv9/s1600/spx_feb2.png"/></a></div> <a name='more'></a><p>For the equal weighted S&P, we have a 'bull flag' that has so far successfully tested its 20-day MA and offers a long trade of its own.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgP8rIZuvYCPAc95KAymIMWYdoy7ltmgyCkZft-oz3nyEq2QvBEvGTNMZDfG7SZV4Kx2UZtlEHE9TwO5eyBm6fz7lNh80yG54B8OexSt4exJELGj4fD2Urmp6ogb3CKmlKBGsWF7l95GnhIWS0vniIqB70ykXF3Ow_G2aQUPEFRrTGYxp1jNH0S/s1600/spxew_feb2.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgP8rIZuvYCPAc95KAymIMWYdoy7ltmgyCkZft-oz3nyEq2QvBEvGTNMZDfG7SZV4Kx2UZtlEHE9TwO5eyBm6fz7lNh80yG54B8OexSt4exJELGj4fD2Urmp6ogb3CKmlKBGsWF7l95GnhIWS0vniIqB70ykXF3Ow_G2aQUPEFRrTGYxp1jNH0S/s1600/spxew_feb2.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) is offering a pullback long trade to its 20-day MA. Risk can be measured on a loss of $258. The MACD is on a 'sell', and it will take a number of bullish trade days to reverse this, but the indicator is trading well above the bullish zero line, so the next 'buy' trigger here will be a 'strong buy'. <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjp_uQqfbuJV6DMvqfAoTJ8Ml5-klIybl9OPfAFWgozGvHR7iL7Q3chrt_sslU6Iv5tM5wFFnXffGtUUashVH3w2qOV-XgvKkaDJMZDCUgyjiG1JZcc95bHR4CRD8HZqtuydo9d4QFk5Prv3nqzxtrQoUrFaOMvYB4TYuSCNMdplBpRxPy8pi80/s1600/iwm_feb2.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjp_uQqfbuJV6DMvqfAoTJ8Ml5-klIybl9OPfAFWgozGvHR7iL7Q3chrt_sslU6Iv5tM5wFFnXffGtUUashVH3w2qOV-XgvKkaDJMZDCUgyjiG1JZcc95bHR4CRD8HZqtuydo9d4QFk5Prv3nqzxtrQoUrFaOMvYB4TYuSCNMdplBpRxPy8pi80/s1600/iwm_feb2.png"/></a></div> <p>The Nasdaq is caught in the middle of its bullish ascending triangle. Today's buying kicked in at its 50-day MA, a moving average that has provided support through the early part of 2026. It could go either way, but as the pattern heads towards a conclusion the likelihood is for it to trade as expected (higher).</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmLM_G4ZBw_s3ynxYPS8rATno0B1MB8LdP0KeMhabYyloMHnm7UW3nBgbnGfQYqpImThPg90s6a4_XlypLiRHlzEYVWnEOzppvcD6XkXF06efCHmSsF0-eXdCwZNA1Q1Q5vtKHjXZUrqX44LD2MxuKz_TsyOgSUBRX97Y9nXMpDvjJSYsPZhZX/s1600/compq_feb2.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmLM_G4ZBw_s3ynxYPS8rATno0B1MB8LdP0KeMhabYyloMHnm7UW3nBgbnGfQYqpImThPg90s6a4_XlypLiRHlzEYVWnEOzppvcD6XkXF06efCHmSsF0-eXdCwZNA1Q1Q5vtKHjXZUrqX44LD2MxuKz_TsyOgSUBRX97Y9nXMpDvjJSYsPZhZX/s1600/compq_feb2.png"/></a></div> <p>Bitcoin staged an accumulation 'buy' back with volume approaching that last seen during November's 2025 capitulation. The risk:reward can be measured with a loss of today's low and an initial target of $85K.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgg-2Uj2LWoG_mfVtcDAZFifs9FEPFNJnXtZ_90rf0cqLnEYhl03DTB1BNKjWPHiE1EJRnx3_AA0glh9UwQH7v35-u00R2-MK4FlFRPldBrBiRokhVCE63m3eHs7k5mMu6A-9qBRu3FaTGavTEdJGXGpNDSEq4xxQ08b4-fZQaRVqEZIWdqPF_b/s1600/btcusd_feb2.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgg-2Uj2LWoG_mfVtcDAZFifs9FEPFNJnXtZ_90rf0cqLnEYhl03DTB1BNKjWPHiE1EJRnx3_AA0glh9UwQH7v35-u00R2-MK4FlFRPldBrBiRokhVCE63m3eHs7k5mMu6A-9qBRu3FaTGavTEdJGXGpNDSEq4xxQ08b4-fZQaRVqEZIWdqPF_b/s1600/btcusd_feb2.png"/></a></div> <p>The Dow Industrial Average is building a narrow range on mixed technicals. Today's buying gives bulls another chance to clear the 2026 trading range.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEim68tR7gbpdUGyGdjtfaTYJRsfDTyf9Nr6ACfaivqIpAfkMkzxpwRitybEjcLMt0hAU3p-WqKxCJMcUiUQoIFWHCAv0c8X5msWnAslFc-vyJos7pqIlllNHkfnsVHqbRsp3-VfFoib2KIXacednLgns_G1PDkZ81Xg_yrIi82FVS42ThnbjpWM/s1600/indu_feb2.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEim68tR7gbpdUGyGdjtfaTYJRsfDTyf9Nr6ACfaivqIpAfkMkzxpwRitybEjcLMt0hAU3p-WqKxCJMcUiUQoIFWHCAv0c8X5msWnAslFc-vyJos7pqIlllNHkfnsVHqbRsp3-VfFoib2KIXacednLgns_G1PDkZ81Xg_yrIi82FVS42ThnbjpWM/s1600/indu_feb2.png"/></a></div> <p>Bulls will have a play tomorrow but direction won't be determined until support or resistance is broken; for tomorrow, that chance lies with bulls.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-6821217349479026942026-02-01T21:14:00.004+00:002026-02-01T21:14:36.811+00:00<p>Aside from Bitcoin, we are not seeing too much technical damage, but we are seeing a pick up in the volume of seeling. Moving averages will be key in the near term before we have to start looking at horizontal price support and swing lows.</p> <p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) undercut its 20-day MA, but hasn't yet challenged support defined by the December swing high. The MACD is on a 'sell' trigger and +DI/DI and On-Balance-Volume will likely do the same Monday if selling continues. Friday's selling registered as confirmed distribution, which is a worry for Monday. It's the strongest index, but if this falls under $257 we would likely be looking at a new trading range bound by $245 and $270 that could last a number of months.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgso6aeJYhy4EzoSSse-gC6r6IFIouz1G97PBrre-XfWx_jHkL0ebghhB2oi2e0ze7V8Jbphdy3kc4ChhAKslAGbxeBMybrmwS7_flgKqm5aYcqXspgPw4md4AiOp_ar7QZAAuJ0IEJm7Mps3YWQxeyOm8MlGiY4r606hR1n_IGmzlXuYxnmMD-/s1600/RUT_Feb1.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgso6aeJYhy4EzoSSse-gC6r6IFIouz1G97PBrre-XfWx_jHkL0ebghhB2oi2e0ze7V8Jbphdy3kc4ChhAKslAGbxeBMybrmwS7_flgKqm5aYcqXspgPw4md4AiOp_ar7QZAAuJ0IEJm7Mps3YWQxeyOm8MlGiY4r606hR1n_IGmzlXuYxnmMD-/s1600/RUT_Feb1.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>The S&P has drifted a little, but finished with another doji sitting inside the spike low of Thursday's action. For a loss, it's probably the most bullish loss it could otherwise be. There 'sell' triggers for +DI/-DI and On-Balance-Volume, but Stochastics are overbought - a requirement for a breakout - and relative performance has enjoyed an uptick, so it's attracting money over its peers.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcNeHcjQclxj3v5Z1zF_FjG9fVFED993Z3R6jRYDPLM-l-T0NuQmzfeellzlKILOKRympw1aXOBGEzV4Ec1ed_KqPoc95qX2i-uqEd866pM_YY4dxPiXWXl5iZL_o8GR23N2N2dmnOlhAUNexnweaCC-oLHB1_HUkDPn4sH4Q9ngRb5U92KLcJ/s1600/spx_feb1.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcNeHcjQclxj3v5Z1zF_FjG9fVFED993Z3R6jRYDPLM-l-T0NuQmzfeellzlKILOKRympw1aXOBGEzV4Ec1ed_KqPoc95qX2i-uqEd866pM_YY4dxPiXWXl5iZL_o8GR23N2N2dmnOlhAUNexnweaCC-oLHB1_HUkDPn4sH4Q9ngRb5U92KLcJ/s1600/spx_feb1.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The Nasdaq was not quite as bullish as the S&P, and did register a distribution day, but it has the benefit of the ascending bullish triangle and has so far defended 50-day MA support. Of technicals, only +DI/-DI is on a 'sell' trigger but it has dropped out of an overbought momentum state.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8RKgnow-xor6_Ccj2zS7aNNxi7qLKKij_duISBPplooOkymshTtCI0XLysV28lUPCY6mWGSQjO615pDBN8W-vlRnBdbLxxK7oNLd15odivjlI0eg3zSVl71hQIAM3G1V1CYaNB3l0myP9Eo29swbg_dUeNBB3yy0m67Ozrj1JVuT2vaFFV2QM/s1600/nas_feb1.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8RKgnow-xor6_Ccj2zS7aNNxi7qLKKij_duISBPplooOkymshTtCI0XLysV28lUPCY6mWGSQjO615pDBN8W-vlRnBdbLxxK7oNLd15odivjlI0eg3zSVl71hQIAM3G1V1CYaNB3l0myP9Eo29swbg_dUeNBB3yy0m67Ozrj1JVuT2vaFFV2QM/s1600/nas_feb1.png"/></a></div> <p>The asset undergoing the most pressure is Bitcoin. The failure to build a right-hand-side base off the January breakout has instead turned into a scramble to the bottom on net bearish technicals, but no distirbution (a small relief). I have drawn in a measured move lower, but absolute moves down aren't the best, but a relative measured move lower would set a target around 62.75K. If it does get there, it would be an attractive buy.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFddb9lWwzEUiGgbFCZWGqBG-XxD0DY-gwFLmnytuafFZXmpcShlxK-BUgGM3qTUM7AYv54AJrZLUx_MwFQHgs5s2P4ANbSt0g2sZ7lNlYV0uPA3rDPTNuBZNeDyspbCYoIaasfT3ZNe7uGVuwY4ZcMrffA0NyYUUY25kENAcytL770DDMr7gR/s1600/btcusd_feb1.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFddb9lWwzEUiGgbFCZWGqBG-XxD0DY-gwFLmnytuafFZXmpcShlxK-BUgGM3qTUM7AYv54AJrZLUx_MwFQHgs5s2P4ANbSt0g2sZ7lNlYV0uPA3rDPTNuBZNeDyspbCYoIaasfT3ZNe7uGVuwY4ZcMrffA0NyYUUY25kENAcytL770DDMr7gR/s1600/btcusd_feb1.png"/></a></div> <p>The weekly chart for Bitcoin shows the challenge that lays ahead. The 200-week MA, currently around 53K, is something that may get a spike low test as part of the measured move target. The (upside) break of this moving average was done in early 2023, but it hasn't tested it since.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWjOJM_H1g0PFEy335HcOHR99GzQFuoUThkAX-EcnDuvf2ZcPJ95kKycBHjb2_ttOvcP0J7q8MRgdFZjNnA3mjNrj-hryIjZeeOVZ4GweygLrdh7XDQY8ouE2SGxoN4BsiwVIDUAbhxjX3PKlsl2RZcaSX-hqjXRfTTBTM6l7BMi1GGT_DKPYQ/s1600/btcuas_feb1.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="1080" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWjOJM_H1g0PFEy335HcOHR99GzQFuoUThkAX-EcnDuvf2ZcPJ95kKycBHjb2_ttOvcP0J7q8MRgdFZjNnA3mjNrj-hryIjZeeOVZ4GweygLrdh7XDQY8ouE2SGxoN4BsiwVIDUAbhxjX3PKlsl2RZcaSX-hqjXRfTTBTM6l7BMi1GGT_DKPYQ/s1600/btcuas_feb1.png"/></a></div> <p>Friday's selling wasn't great news for bulls, but there may be enough to offer a bullish trade on Monday. It will likely only be a day trade (at least until resistance is tested), but the risk is current bullish patterns for the S&P and Nasdaq trade 'out' of the pattern into a neutral trading ranges.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-82864465313341763772026-01-29T21:46:00.002+00:002026-01-29T21:46:49.218+00:00<p>There was more wild fanfare today than any real damage to indices despite Microsoft's earnings hit, and Apple's earnings to follow.</p> <p>We will start with the Nasdaq. I have redrawn the breakout as an adjusted 'bullish ascending triangle' rather than a 'bull trap'. A loss of ascending triangle support would bring in to play a future test of the 200-day MA, which I think the index needs, but is not guaranteed. Technicals have seen a 'sell' trigger in +DI/-DI, but other technicals are holding up well. It could get ugly if Apple dissapoints; if that happens, then the 22.2K level is the immediate concern.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixIAFS6W_FttgSG9UfMY18TZyy-Z6hkEvxHnX0D81CFvwc39L8mCv73kM9h7p_zvSBeaOloA1iOQeioUNuWoKGounHk34_vLXRaAXfXWqkPZr3Sc3hwPqokgIiBUi4-mBTN8NXF-4hSFfHDutC2WFD5FPzz2N0VCjaxZrLlwtduhC59VD6zfpm/s1600/COMPQ_Jan29.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixIAFS6W_FttgSG9UfMY18TZyy-Z6hkEvxHnX0D81CFvwc39L8mCv73kM9h7p_zvSBeaOloA1iOQeioUNuWoKGounHk34_vLXRaAXfXWqkPZr3Sc3hwPqokgIiBUi4-mBTN8NXF-4hSFfHDutC2WFD5FPzz2N0VCjaxZrLlwtduhC59VD6zfpm/s1600/COMPQ_Jan29.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>I'm not sure what to make of the S&P. It's a bit of a mixed bag, I have redrawn it as a skittish bullish ascending triangle, but it may just be a broader rising channel. The 50-day MA is looking like it will be key support on the next test. A loss will open up for a test of the 200-day MA.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3HiIa-v9BdeMoUusxbV7c9jXpjxc7gv-rBjE8Mc5lUsqRVa2EJKhpRyQB9trGWE6ftlUQCftc6_c-RC0Xt5Q_P8wmrKH6HIZevOR4d6AK_82LpCUWaJPKB38oJCdN9p2ub0147k474DwVCg9IVaGvobY4g84WerNGOy10Ck4nMv3c5cPEsui6/s1600/spx_jan29.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3HiIa-v9BdeMoUusxbV7c9jXpjxc7gv-rBjE8Mc5lUsqRVa2EJKhpRyQB9trGWE6ftlUQCftc6_c-RC0Xt5Q_P8wmrKH6HIZevOR4d6AK_82LpCUWaJPKB38oJCdN9p2ub0147k474DwVCg9IVaGvobY4g84WerNGOy10Ck4nMv3c5cPEsui6/s1600/spx_jan29.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) successfully tested its 20-day MA and is holding to its breakout. It's looking technically vulnerable with a 'sell' trigger in the MACD, but it's also outperforming peer indices which will help it attract investment.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgaaZuCgyr-CpLvY6LA2zR_Vt64JfgBFwQw1r-aFGtMcazEj9-qoMKMaEuCESBu2qxSynu7wXP-JVlPeN0soT-pq5GqV-gRI6kBddUv2m0iICduDmNfm7xi_QlCC3kF7i6l5DHF5dAwL9fxsuQ1vE2pQ2EigUqIzfRLfJFfwYdtFJbWQ6qJG9BD/s1600/iwm_jan29.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgaaZuCgyr-CpLvY6LA2zR_Vt64JfgBFwQw1r-aFGtMcazEj9-qoMKMaEuCESBu2qxSynu7wXP-JVlPeN0soT-pq5GqV-gRI6kBddUv2m0iICduDmNfm7xi_QlCC3kF7i6l5DHF5dAwL9fxsuQ1vE2pQ2EigUqIzfRLfJFfwYdtFJbWQ6qJG9BD/s1600/iwm_jan29.png"/></a></div> <p>Bitcoin took a spin for the worse with a solid red candlestick that undercut $85K support. The loss came off the back of a distribution day. Of technicals, only On-Balance-Volume is on a 'buy' trigger. The undercut of support confirms the 'bull trap', and likely means worse to come. November's spike low will offer some form of support, but if volume stays the way it is I wouldn't expect it to hold our for long.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjF6tUQPI9_08n84Meb0Wi9LkHqMPE_TXvGy7gQkNqJjqnu_aMAB3WWl_wlUhOeiwcTRJ1dvxznKVeS3X187U0iEf77kEqchJldT0F-Yl3TCuD_QeVoKQeq6BeRqFf1T6HBIXE1vQqN_jByw4tof-WH9l8a3bf4zuYvZh82AHtIwatLDZQe6Uof/s1600/btcusd_jan29.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjF6tUQPI9_08n84Meb0Wi9LkHqMPE_TXvGy7gQkNqJjqnu_aMAB3WWl_wlUhOeiwcTRJ1dvxznKVeS3X187U0iEf77kEqchJldT0F-Yl3TCuD_QeVoKQeq6BeRqFf1T6HBIXE1vQqN_jByw4tof-WH9l8a3bf4zuYvZh82AHtIwatLDZQe6Uof/s1600/btcusd_jan29.png"/></a></div> <p>If Tech earnings continue to disappoint, then we will start to get the overbought reset tech stocks need. It's not great news for workers in the tech sector that continue to see layoffs, but it will provide the foundation for the next cycle of the rally.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.com