Frenchie was soooo close on this one.

I’ve enjoyed watching the Kansas City Royals have a strong start to the season, as I was prepared to never witness it again. It’s like I was holding out hope that Bo Jackson would somehow return the Royals to glory.

While they don’t have Bo, the Royals do now have some talent in the outfield, although things are a little bit of a mess right now. Let’s start with the good news, shift quickly to the bad, then spend the remaining 200 words talking about how I simply adore Jeff Francoeur.

The Good News

Alex Gordon has really settled into his role hitting third, showing that he’s quite the run producer. With almost 30 Runs and 30 RBI, he has been a great fantasy baseball performer thus far. His 6 homers have been nice, but it’s his .330 average that has helped fantasy owners keep a high team average.

Batting average shouldn’t be overlooked as a category. With players striking out more and more, averages will continue to drop. With .300 hitters becoming a scarce commodity, it’s important to have a couple on your team, particularly if they offer the runs scored of Gordon.

So left field is better than just stable for the Royals, it’s one of the best in baseball.

Lorenzo Cain has transitioned successfully to right field (more on this later) and he’s been a great surprise early in the fantasy season. OK, perhaps he hasn’t been a total surprise – as he was a trendy sleeper – but it’s nice to see him step into his potential after injuries have derailed him for so long.

While I don’t think his .320+ batting average is sustainable, he has been nice on the base paths with 6 steals already. The one homer is disappointing, but I think he has 10-12 homers in him for the season. I’ve written about him before, so cruise over there if you are interested in a deeper look at Cain.

The Bad News

While Cain’s move to right was successful, it hasn’t lasted long. Jarrod Dyson had taken over the center field job, only to injure his ankle trying to take away a homer from Mike Trout. Mike Trout is the only player who can leap over the wall to take away a homer from Mike Trout.

Dyson is a light hitter, but he has plenty of speed. If his ankle injury isn’t serious, he would be a nice candidate to stash as a source of cheap steals. Additionally, he’ll score some runs if he sticks at the top of the Royal’s lineup.

Injury or not, he plays best as a fourth outfielder, but Jeff Francoeur is physically incapable of laying off a pitch. I swear he’d swing at a pitch thrown to the cutoff man. That means he’s back starting in right field and flashing with rocket arm and winning style. Do not place him on your fantasy team. I repeat, do not place him on your fantasy team.

Now can I tell you why I love Francoeur?

First, don’t you? He’s well know as being once of the nicest guys in baseball, routinely going above and beyond for fans, even giving them bacon, pizza and beer money. He’s well-known to be compassionate and generous.

Beyond that, he’s a strong leader and clubhouse guy, going so far as taking batting practice nude, wearing only pink cleats to loosen up the team (no GIF of this fortunately). He’ll even tag the nuggets of his coaches if it will bring a smile.

I love Francoeur. I just wish he could hit the darned baseball and provided even a modicum of fantasy baseball value. I’d roster that in a second if he did!

For now, let’s smile at Francoeur, while we wish Dyson a quick recovery.

Photo courtesy of Tom Hagerty.

Another week, another set of Dixon’s Picks. This is something of an odd week in that most of the good two-start aren’t readily available in most leagues. The bulk of the others aren’t people I’d gamble on at this point. So, we have to improvise.

The first two names you’ll read are available in most leagues. But, that only gets us to four starts. Call me crazy, but I like looking at six good matchups per week. So, that’s what we’re going to do. We’re going to look at a few other guys for one start.

Now, I will say that both of the bonus picks are actually two-start guys. But in both cases, they’re going up against an offense that you just don’t stream pitchers against. So, I’d suggest that you couple these two together and use each in his best matchup.

Now, let’s get to it.

• Julio Teheran, Atlanta Braves — Probable Starts: Monday vs. Minnesota Twins, Sunday at New York Mets

Here’s a prime example of where pitcher’s numbers early in the year are inconclusive. Yes, Teheran enters the week with relatively unimpressive numbers, sporting a 4.57 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. But while those aren’t impressive, they don’t tell the complete story.

When Teheran took the mound on April 23 against the Rockies, his ERA was 7.31. Since then, that total has been reduced by nearly three full points. Welcome to the world of pitcher’s stats in the early part of the year. They are way out of whack. Starting with that Rockies start, three of his four most recent outings were quality starts. Even the one that wasn’t a QS wasn’t terrible in the ERA department, allowing two runs over 5.1 innings.

The recipe for success has been pretty simple over that time. In those four starts, Teheran has walked a total of one hitter. In the three before that, he had seven walks. Nothing new here, but walks are ERA killers. If you don’t issue the free passes, you’re chances to survive are great.

Now, there are still some drawbacks with Julio Teheran. The main one is that he’s a contact pitcher, so he allows a lot of hits. As a matter of fact, he’s never had an outing in 2013 where he allowed fewer hits than innings pitched. Fortunately, these aren’t the teams to expose those flaws. The Mets sport one of baseball’s worst batting averages and OBP, while the Twins are decidedly average in both. Remember, that start will be in Atlanta, so the Twins will not have the DH, either.

Teheran is moving in the right direction, and these are two opponents that will allow him to keep heading that way.

Teheran’s Projections for the Week

• Josh Lindblom, Texas Rangers – Probable Starts: Monday vs. Oakland Athletics, Sunday at Seattle Mariners
  

This is something you won’t see in too many Dixon’s Picks — a pitcher making his first ever start in the week I’m suggesting you pick him up. But there a few reasons why Josh Lindblom is a good pick this week.

• I won’t call the A’s a bad offense. They are a typical Billy Beane team in that they don’t hit for a high average, but do draw a lot of walks. As a result, they’re one of the most prolific scoring offenses in the league. But right now, they’re a struggling team. Even their wins are generally pretty low-scoring. 
• Seattle is a Bottom-10 offense in most major categories.
• While he hasn’t been particularly prolific at strikeouts this season, Lindblom has been a strikeout pitcher throughout his career. Both Seattle and Oakland are in the Top-10 in the majors in strikeouts. It’s nice to have a category that you can reliably fall back on if things go south.
• Though the sample size is somewhat limited (100.2 innings — all relief), Lindblom’s career Major League ERA is 3.31, his WHIP is 1.262, with nearly one strikeout per inning.
• Lindblom has been excellent in Triple-A this season, sporting a 4-0 record, 2.08 ERA, and 0.877 WHIP in 43.1 innings.

Now, the drawback is that he’s really economical with his pitches, there’s a pretty good chance that Lindblom will be limited to five, maybe six innings this week, especially in the first start. But the good news is that while he’s on the mound, there’s plenty of reason to believe he’ll bring things. Remember, the Rangers are a contending team. When Alexi Ogando went down with an injury, Texas had to bring up a pitcher they were confident in. If they weren’t going anywhere in the standings, they might have gone with a more highly touted guy to get his feet wet, even if the experience was rough. This tells me that they believe in Lindblom for a few starts. So do I.

Lindblom’s Projections for the Week

• Scott Kazmir, Cleveland Indians – Recommended Start: Monday vs. Seattle Mariners 

We’ve already gone over why the Mariners are a good matchup for pitchers. Kazmir, in particular, can be exceptionally dangerous against them, as he enters Monday striking out more than one hitter per inning. Actually, even in Kazmir’s worst years, he still struck out hitters at a good rate.

Like Teheran, Scott Kazmir is a prime example of how stats for pitchers can be deceiving. Yes, he had a terrible opening outing against the Astros of all teams (more on that later, but remember that he issued three walks in that game). But in the 22 subsequent innings, he’s posted an ERA of 3.68, and a WHIP of 1.18. Better yet, he’s struck out 24 batters.

Now, over the weekend, Kazmir will take on the Red Sox at Fenway. The Sox haven’t been especially great over the last few weeks, and I do wonder if they’re true contenders, but I still don’t like that matchup at Fenway. There are just too many good hitters, and too many ways to get in trouble in that park.

But the Mariners are a good matchup. With their tendency to strikeout a lot, you could be looking at a double-digit strikeout day. I won’t go as far as to predict that, but you’ll see plenty from Kazmir.

Kazmir’s Projections against Seattle

• Bartolo Colon, Oakland Athletics – Recommended Start: Sunday at Houston Astros

This is an interesting one. Colon is actually Lindblom’s scheduled opponent, but I just don’t like matchup. Not in Arlington, anyway. While I am not enamored with the matchup against the Rangers, the A’s will leave Arlington to a more pitcher-friendly part of the state, Houston. Actually, the city and ballpark aren’t particularly pitcher-friendly, but the Astros offense is, and that’s what counts here.

Not many pitchers will get into trouble against that offense. Really, when you’re facing a bad offense, the only way you get into trouble is to walk batters. Otherwise, they’re dependent on stringing two or three hits together, and that’s just not likely to happen too often. Say what you will about Bartolo Colon, but he will never beat himself on the mound. Wait, that’s awkward. Well, he doesn’t walk guys, let’s put it that way.

In 47.1 innings in 2013, Colon has issued two walks. Read that again, it is not a typo. TWO WALKS. This is where the ultimate question comes in. What is the worst that can happen? The Astros just don’t have the bats that can inflict serious damage on a pitcher who doesn’t help them out. Colon isn’t a strikeout guy, but Houston tends to bring out the inner Tom Seaver in all of its opponents. As a general rule, if you’re in need of a good start and see a guy on the waiver wire facing the Astros, sign him. Even if the guy is a contact guy who allows a lot of hits (like Colon), if he throws strikes, the outing will almost always be good, and sometimes even great.

Colon’s Projections against Houston

Photo courtesy of Matt Kemp

Nash,

Looking for some trade advice.

I just traded Nelson Cruz and Shelby Miller for Craig Kimbrel and Zack Greinke which I feel is a great trade for me.

I had someone knocking on my door, offering Matt Kemp for Jason Heyward and Shelby Miller. But since I just traded Shelby Miller, who would you include in that trade?

My pitching staff now looks like this: Yu Darvish, Matt Moore, Max Scherzer, Hyun-jin Ryu, Jose Fernandez, Jhoulys Chacin, Justin Masterson.

Well, you’re right! As good as Shelby Miller and Nelson Cruz are, Craig Kimbrel gives you an ELITE closer that will bolster you in Ks as well. Actually, it’s a great trade if Zack Greinke performs at the top of his game rest of season!

Regarding Matt Kemp, I believe I speak with all the Crackerjacks when I say that you ALWAYS want to add ELITE talent to your team. This is a very good rule of thumb, and it goes along with another rule of thumb, always get the best player in the trade. Unless you play in a VERY deep league, there is always talent in free agency to fill your roster out with.

Kemp was a first round pick for a reason. He possesses 40/40 potential. Now he may be getting further away from his 40 steal potential so maybe 40/30 is more accurate. Also people are talking about his slow start, saying that he may not be be the MVP candidate any longer, and such.

However, elite guys find ways to get their numbers, so if he does make good he is in for a heck of a rest of 2013. Much like owners who are waiting on Josh Hamilton and David Price, you do not want to be the guy that trades away a struggling star to then watch him go on a tear.

I am not saying that guys never come through, Carl Crawford and Tim Lincecum are recent examples of guys that did not make good on their numbers. So it is in fact a risk. However when someone is not asking too much for an elite guy, I think you should always pull the trigger.

Jason Heyward is a fine player when he is healthy and confident, however his career has not been without it’s ups and downs so if the asking price is him and a middle-tier pitcher, you must make the move, no questions asked. It’s really that simple.

As for the other the pitchers you have — any of these arms would be okay to offer: Yu Darvish, Matt Moore, Max Scherzer, Hyun-jin Ryu, Jose Fernandez, Jhoulys Chacin, and Justin Masterson.

That’s to say that I would part with anyone other than the newly-acquired and freshly returned Greinke, Yu Darvish, or Matt Moore. Actually, I’d give up Moore or Darvish, as well. But it would be tougher to give them up, so I’d try to part with the others first. If you can give up one of the other arms you possess, this move should have already been made!

In my opinion pitchers are the best deal sweeteners because you can almost always recoup the loss of stats in free agency, especially if you like to stream.

You can get great streaming tips from Dixon Picks. You can read Will’s past pieces about sleepers. You can read Pleiss I’d Roster That column. Or you can get in touch with any of us for advice on a specific player, or couple of players.

But this trade is a must make. If that’s all you’re giving up, you have to take a chance that you’ll get the best of a struggling star for the rest of the year.

– Nash

Michael Pineda made the American League All-Star team in 2011, and is nearly set to make his Yankees debut. Photo courtesy of Keith Allison.

This is the time of year where you start to worry about your fantasy team’s worthiness of a championship. One of my rules of thumb is that you can never have enough pitching.

In a best case scenario you will use 70% of your bench to stash pitching. My reasoning for this is to have three or four quality pitchers to rotate in and out of your lineup depending on matchups. Two-start guys and advantageous matchups will add up quickly in your standings.

This year there is a cornucopia of pitching talent coming off of the disabled list between now and the All-Star break. You can get top-level talent for the bargain basement price of a waiver wire addition.

The following pitchers are ranked by their scheduled return date.

Matt Garza – Chicago Cubs

It looks like Garza will be available for the Cubs as early as next week. The former Tampa right-hander has one more rehab start before he is activated. He has been an injury machine since joining the Cubs, including a dead arm set back while rehabbing a month ago.

His low to mid 90’s fastball will get you a K/9 rate around 8.5. His slider and change up are average and that is why he hasn’t had huge success in the win column up until now. Pitching for the perpetually rebuilding Cubs will limit his wins this season also.

Expect an ERA under 4 from Matt Garza and if his ground ball rate can stay above 40%, you could see an ERA under 3.50 with a good BABIP.

Michael Pineda – New York Yankees

The big righty will look for a return from shoulder surgery around the all-star break. He has not pitched in a regular season game since joining the Yankees before the 2012 season.

Pineda can be dominant with his repertoire. His slider could be considered more dominant than his fastball. At times he has control issues just like C.C. Sabathia did when he was younger.

It’s difficult to forecast what he will bring to the table for this year. His ERA will be in the high 3’s with a K/9 above 9. He will get plenty of run support and could rack up wins even when he doesn’t pitch very well.

He will be limited by his lack of experience. He has only played one season in the big leagues. Of course, he will go through some growing pains as he continues to adjust to big league hitting in his second full season.

There is a lot to like from Pineda. He has already been clocked at 95 mph on the gun in an extended spring training session. He will be supported with plenty of run support in a surprising first place A.L. East offense. To top it off, he will have Sabathia mentoring him in the Yankee dugout when things aren’t going his way.

He will be picked up off of the waiver wire soon. I would not wait for June to roll around to grab him. As reports continue to come in touting his progress, someone will grab him early. Be smart and pick him up before your competition does.

Cory Luebke – San Diego Padres

This isn’t the first time I have written about Luebke. So, I’ll direct you there again for more in depth stuff. 

I will say that he is the best kept secret in baseball this year based on his talent. He is scheduled to return around the All-Star break. He will be an absolute steal.

Daniel Hudson – Arizona Diamondbacks

If Cory Luebke is the best kept secret in baseball then the return of Hudson to the Diamondbacks lineup will be the second biggest surprise in the second half. He is scheduled to return a few starts before the All-Star break.

He has been a forgotten commodity in baseball. He too has undergone Tommy John Surgery.

Unlike some of the other pitchers on the list, Daniel Hudson has an extended period of success at the big league level. In 2011 he went 16-12 with an ERA of 3.49.

Big things were expected from his 2012 season and he made it through an entire five innings before getting injured. I should know. I drafted him.

He will get you wins based on his control and how he limits his mistakes. His WHIP will be in the 1.20 area and you can possibly expect a number south of 1.20.

He is not a strikeout an inning pitcher but his K/9 rate in 2011 was a respectable 6.85. He will not walk a lot of hitters and he is not prone to the long ball. He will average well under a homer per nine innings.

He is a very similar pitcher to his teammate Patrick Corbin. Corbin is one of the hottest pitching commodities in baseball. You can expect the same in the second half for Daniel Hudson.

There is a lot to love about Daniel Hudson when he makes his return after being out for over a year. He will give you some good to great stats in all five categories for your team. He will be an under the radar steal for the second half of the season.

Danny Duffy – Kansas City Royals

Duffy is very similar as Michael Pineda. He doesn’t have a lot of experience at the big league level, having only thrown 132 innings for the Royals.

Just like Pineda, Danny Duffy brings electric stuff to the table but from a lefty perspective. He will return from Tommy John Surgery around the All-Star break.

His K rate will be elite but his walk rate could be a problem because he can be walk prone and command is the last thing to come around after Tommy John surgery. This could be detrimental to Duffy but we won’t know until he gets a few starts under his belt.

I would take a flyer on him, but not until you get some of the pitchers above under your teams control. He does have a lot of upside but they may not come until next season. Keep an eye on him.

Photo courtesy of Mike LaChance.

Those of you who read this week’s Dixon’s Picks have gotten something of a sneak preview here, but a guy who’s been one of the best pitchers throughout the early part of 2013 plays on the decidedly mediocre Chicago Cubs. Actually, four-fifths of their starting rotation has been solid, with Jeff Samardzija, Carlos Villanueva, and Scott Feldman producing solid statistics. If you’re good at math, you surely realize that I only counted three people there.

Joining that trio today is, Travis Wood, who has been the team’s best pitcher through the first month-and-a-half. Actually, he’s been one of the best pitchers in baseball throughout that time. Let’s take a look at what he’s done.

Giving him a pretty line of this:

Also, in eight outings he’s posted a perfect, league leading, eight quality starts. That’s not always indicative of a great start but if it’s done every outing, it’s a sign of consistency and the numbers will be low. But none of that matters now. If he’s available to you now, you want to know what he’s going to do, not what’s been done. So, let’s take a look.

What Worries Me

I like Wood, I really do. But plenty concerns me here about the rest of the season. Let’s start with this:

Entering 2013, Wood had a career ERA of 4.22. Just for the sake of argument, let’s say that he finishes the season with 200 innings pitched and a 3.60 ERA. Yes, you probably would have taken that in the beginning of the season, but that would be a 4.17 ERA from here on out.

What if his ERA is a little worse? Let’s say closer to 4.00. What if he doesn’t hit 200 innings? Between the majors and minors, he was right around that mark last year, but 200 Major League innings is quite a bit different from 156, and 41.1 in the minors. It’s going to be very hard for him to sustain this kind of run through September.

Also, remember that the weather’s been a little cool in the midwest and east throughout the 2013 season. There have been a lot of weather delays/postponements, and general cold weather in most of the Cubs’ games. 

That’s going to change pretty soon. When the weather gets hot, the balls carry better, the pitchers get tired easier, and the conditions are generally more favorable for hitters. Wrigley Field is certainly not a pitcher’s park, nor are most of the NL Central’s ballparks. So, when the conditions become good for hitters, they become really good. For a pitcher like Wood, who has even struggled with walks this year, it seems like a recipe for disaster.

On the positive end, I will say that I think an offense with Starlin Castro, Anthony Rizzo, and Alfonso Soriano occupying the heart of it will eventually start scoring some runs and break out of the Bottom-10 of the league. But the Cubs bullpen is one of the worst in the league this year, and was last year, as well. The offense may score some more runs in support of Wood and the rest of the Cubs’ pitchers, but don’t be surprised to see plenty potential wins squandered in the late innings.

Say what you will about the win but in a standard league, it is one-quarter of the fantasy pitcher’s stats. For a guy who’s not a big strikeout guy that you’re probably expecting an ERA/WHIP drop from, not being able to pencil in a decent win total is a problem. 

What I like

The scenario I posted above is a bit of a concern. I won’t say that I expect this kind of production from Wood for the rest of the season, but I do expect him to stay hot for a while. Assuming there are no injuries and that Wood takes the ball every fifth game for the Cubbies, look at his remaining probable first half outings.

• at Mets
• at Reds
• vs White Sox
• at Angels
• vs Reds
• at Mets
• vs Astros
• at Brewers
• at A’s
• vs Angels
• vs Cardinals

There are a few tough teams in there for sure, but Wood has already done a good job against some good offenses this year. Yes, his stats have been padded a bit by the likes of the Padres and Marlins, but he’s done just fine against the Brewers, Rangers, Reds, Cardinals, and Rockies.

When you start thinking about some of the better hitters that Wood will face, the outlook doesn’t look too bad. What do Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Ike Davis, Josh Hamilton, and Adam Dunn all have in common? Well, they’re all dangerous hitters. And no, I am not putting Dunn on the same level as Votto, but he can run into a ball on occasion. But they’re also all lefties, and lefties have hit just over .200 against Wood in his career. So, all of a sudden, even the bad matchups don’t look so bad.

What I think

There are no doubt some drawbacks here. Wood’s done extremely well this year, which means that you can expect things to level out at some point.

There are two questions to ask here, though?

1. How much will they level out?
2. How soon will it happen?

Question 1: I am expecting something around a 3.60 ERA this year from Wood. But a 4.22 ERA from this point on isn’t bad. Also, It wouldn’t at all surprise me to see him closer to 3.40, and I don’t think he’ll finish much higher than 3.80. So, I am not expecting too much of a leveling off, even if he doesn’t remain a Cy Young contender all year.

Question 2: I like the matchups for the rest of the first half. I especially like them if the Angels continue to struggle like they have.

So, what I’d advise you to do is to go out and grab him right now. He may eventually level out a little bit, but I haven’t seen any signs of that happening yet. Worrying about leveling out is fine, but don’t act on those fears until it starts to happen.

As always, they play a game of “Who’d You Rather?” where they pick between players based on tweets and emails from listeners. Click here to submit your “Who’d You Rather?”

Then they discuss hot and cold players. Players on a hot streak are: Kelly Johnson (TB), Juan Pierre (MIA) and Mitch Moreland (TEX). Players on a cold streak are: Jed Lowrie (OAK) and David Freese (STL).

Waiver Wire pitchers discussed are: Kevin Slowey (MIA), Zach McAllister (CLE) and Ubaldo Jimenez (CLE).

They close the show by responding to emails.

As always, it’s a great show and while it’s stuffed full of fantasy baseball analysis, it’s clocks in at just about an hour. Twitter even likes it:

Love listening to @cmcbrien‘s Dear Mr. Fantasy podcast when I have the time…and @ginamuscato was a great guest this week.

— Mike Gianella (@MikeGianella) May 15, 2013

Click here to catch up on last week’s show or HERE to subscribe in iTunes so you never miss a week.

Photo courtesy of Keith Allison.

This week on I’d Roster that we have a designated hitter, a corner outfielder, a first basemen, and a right handed pitcher.  Lots to get to this week, so let us begin.

Travis Hafner (35, left handed hitting designated hitter, New York Yankees) was signed to a one-year $2 million dollar deal this winter. With a pile of injuries in New York, Hafner has been penciled in as the everyday DH for the Bronx Bombers. Hafner has responded well to pinstripes and has 6 home runs through his first 115 plate appearances. With continued regular playing time Hafner could certainly sniff 25 home runs, but staying healthy has not exactly been his strong suit over the past several seasons (he has played more than 100 games just once since 2007, when he played 118 in 2010).

News on Tuesday was that Travis Hafner was held out of Tuesday’s Yankees tilt and sent to have a precautionary MRI on his surgically repaired right shoulder. Even if that was not enough to scare you out of rostering the 35-year-old, consider that the Yankees have a raft of players set to come off the DL in the near future (starting with Curtis Granderson, who made his 2012 debut on Tuesday night) and the Yankees will likely look to use the DH position as a way to give some of those players a day off while keeping their bats in the lineup. With health and playing time issues on the horizon, Don’t Roster That.

James Loney (29, left handed hitting first basemen, Tampa Bay Rays) is practically leading the entire world right now with a .376 batting average, has increased his BB% to 8.3% (his highest rate since 2009) and has a nifty little .429 on-base percentage almost a quarter of the way through the 2013 season.

Do not expect Loney to continue hitting .376 (he has an absurdly high BABIP of .404 this year), but his aforementioned BB% is trending in the right direction, and so his his K%, so he looks a lot more like the 2010 version of James Loney that ended up slashing .281/.357/.399, than the 2012 version that struggled to a .230/.264/.310 line a year ago. With the hot start to the year, he’s definitely worth riding at least until he cools off (over the last two weeks he’s still white-hot .413/.449/.630).  I’d Roster That

Oswaldo Arcia (22, left handed hitting corner outfielder, Minnesota Twins) makes it admittedly hard for me to be impartial, but with this 22-year-old kid, the sky is the limit. He might not stay hot all year, and he still has plenty of swing-and-miss in his game (28.4%), but as he adjusts to the game he will take more walks (just 4.9 BB%), and you shouldn’t expect his power to go anywhere but up as the season progresses.  Strike zone recognition is really the big issue with Arcia so far, as he’s swinging at almost 44% of balls OUTSIDE of the strike zone, but I think that will improve, and will likely counteract the effects of a .392 BABIP coming back down to earthly levels.

The Twins will need to figure out what to do with Oswaldo Arcia in a couple of weeks when Darin Mastroianni is ready to return from the Disabled List. But all reports out of Minnesota point towards Arcia staying with the Twins all year. If he is available in your league, snap him up, especially if you have an opportunity to hold on to him for more than just one season. I’d Roster That

Carlos Villanueva (29, right handed starting pitcher, Chicago Cubs) does not have a ton of power, throwing his fastball with an average velocity of just 86.9 miles per hour. But he does have a nice four-pitch mix that includes an excellent curveball and change up to go along with a mediocre slider.

As a pitcher that relies on movement and deception, ground balls are Villanueva’s best friend. Going into Tuesday’s start against Jeff Francis and the Colorado Rockies, he’s posting a 47.7% GB%, the highest percentage of his career, more than 8 percentage points higher than his career average. By keeping balls on the ground, Carlos Villanueva limits his exposure to the long ball (.9 HR/9), and keeps him, more or less, out of big innings.

His success so far has translated into just a 1-2 record through his first seven starts, but he has just a 3.02 ERA and a 1.007 WHIP. He won’t score you a bunch of points for strike outs (just 19.2%), but he’s averaging almost seven innings per start which has allowed him to rack up 35 strike outs so far this year.

Unfortunately for Villanueva, he’s split time between starting and relieving every year of his career, and with Matt Garza set to come off the DL, Villanueva could wind up back in the bullpen, drastically reducing his value. The Cubs will likely have to decide between Villanueva and Scott Feldman (and his 2.53 ERA), and Villanueva has more experience out of the bullpen, so it does not look good. With so much uncertainty about his role going forward, I’d hold off on grabbing Villanueva until at least next week when the Cubs decide with to do with a surplus of pitching. For now, Don’t Roster That.

If you have anyone you’d like to get a second opinion on, feel free to reach out in any way you know how. Our Twitter and Facebook pages, the Twitter pages of myself, Clave, Dixon, or Nash, as well as any of the email addresses listed.  

At the risk of sounding like a grandpa, today’s fantasy baseball’s expectations just aren’t as reasonable as they used to be. Mike Trout and Bryce Harper have done mythical things on the baseball field at an absurdly early age. A side effect has been that they have perhaps skewed the expectations of what should be expected for a rookie on your fantasy baseball team.

The hype machine raises the roof on what a rookie can accomplish, meaning the ceilings we’re placing on several rookies are entirely unrealistic. For the next 450 words I’ll talk about 2 highly hyped rookies of myth and legend, one pitcher and one hitter, but give you are realistic comparison for the production of the rookie in their prime.

Jackie Bradley

Let’s start with Jackie Bradley, the 20-year-old outfielder for the Boston Red Sox who hit the cover off the ball in Spring Training, only to struggle in the Majors and get shipped back to Triple A. He was a trendy pickup to begin the season and I heard for gaudy expectations thrown around. But what can we expect from Bradley when he rights the ship and is eventually called back to The Show for good.

The first comp that pops to mind is Norichika Aoki. Despite his slow start, I’m a fan of Aoki and have written about him before. He’ll strike about right around the same rate that he walks which is something we’ll ultimately see out of Bradley. That’s makes them great for OBP leagues.

Second, Aoki will swipe 20+ bases, which is a fair over/under for Bradley. Not blazers, but smart on the basepaths. Bradley might have a bit more upside in the power department, but is you bank on 12 you won’t be disappointed.

Over a full season of at bats from the leadoff position and you are looking at a 80 12 50 22 .280 line. Both player’s best seasons will see an uptick in a couple of the categories, but on average you are looking at a fine 3rd or 4th fantasy outfielder, also known as Denard Span. Helpful, but nothing to build a team around, so reset those expectations accordingly.

Jose Fernandez

Jose Fernandez is a 20-year-old Cuban defector who once jumped off a raft to save his mom from drowning is being hyped and compared to Doc Gooden. I should be clear that the comparison is not Cuban raft hopping, but the fact that Doc pitched a 24 W / 3 L, 1.53 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 268 K line in 276 innings as a 20-year-old. Dear Lord, I really sound like a grandpa, but they simply don’t make pitchers like they used to.

Step back from Doc Gooden comparison as it won’t happen this year for Fernandez. But what is a reasonable expectation in Jose’s prime? First, no pitcher in baseball will get 276 innings this season, much less the Miami Marlins youngster. But other 20-year-olds have pitched nearly 200, including CC Sabathia, Fernando Valenzuela, Felix Hernandez, Rick Ankiel (remember that, kids?), and Rick Porcello. Drop to around 150 innings and you get Bret Saberhagen and Zack Greinke, lofty company.

A quick peek at that list and you can see why Jose Fernandez is as hyped as he is! Well, he’ll be better than Rick Porcello even this season. Based upon strikeout and walk rates and I think Fernandez will put up numbers similar to Sabathia, minus the Wins. But that’s two years from now, assuming he doesn’t develop Sabathia’s body type (he won’t). Fernandez is a star in the making.

So there you have a realistic comparable for two hyped rookies. One is a player to stash because his prime years could make him one of fantasy baseball’s best pitchers, while the other could make a fine 3rd outfielder. Sorry neither will reach mythic status this season.

Are you interested in comparables for other rookies? Let us know in the comments or on Twitter.

Photo courtesy of Mike LaChance.

Welcome back to Dixon’s Picks! I hope that everyone had a good weekend.

This isn’t the best week when it comes to two-start guys. There aren’t many available guys out there going against two bad offenses this week. So, that means that you’ve gotta take some chances. But, that’s a big part of streaming anyway. So, let’s take a look at some guys to consider gambling on.

• A.J. Griffin, Oakland Athletics — Probable Starts: Monday vs. Texas Rangers, Sunday vs. Kansas City Royals

I’ve been a fan of A.J. Griffin all year, so I guess there’s no reason that he shouldn’t be here. At first glance, his 3.83 ERA and 1.21 WHIP look decent, but probably not great. But he’s taken the mound seven times, recording five quality starts, and only one really bad outing, which came against the Red Sox at Fenway Park. To show you what one bad start can do this time of the year, Griffin’s ERA in his other six outings is 2.68, while his WHIP is 1.14. That looks much better.

As far as this week goes, I get some skepticism about starting him against the Rangers. That’s certainly a lineup that can produce a bad day. But if 2012 is any indicator, Oakland isn’t exactly Texas’ happy place. They hit only .212 in the Coliseum last year, hitting only five home runs. The fewest of any of any AL West stadium (in 2012). Oakland’s big dimensions hurt a lot of bats, and the Rangers’ potent lineup hasn’t been much different. Remember that while the 2013 Rangers are a good team, their pitching is a big reason why. Texas are currently hitting .263. They did lose Josh Hamilton, Michael Young, and Mike Napoli. So, in a pitcher’s park, they can be had.

The Royals are always an interesting team for me to include here. They are one of the better hitting teams in the league in terms of average, but are in the bottom-third of the MLB in scoring runs. So, I have no reason to believe that Griffin won’t do well against them, even if a few more guys get on base than you’d normally like.

There’s also one more bonus with Griffin. While he only gets one start next week, it comes against the Astros. So, you can count on a pretty good outing there, too.

Griffin’s Projections for the Week

• Jason Vargas, Los Angeles Angels — Probable Starts: Tuesday vs. Kansas City Royals, Sunday vs. Chicago White Sox

Much like Griffin, Jason Vargas is an old friend who I’ve written about more times than I care to count. You may be asking yourself a question. How in the world can I suggest throwing a guy who just had a rough outing against the Astros? Well, the two outings before were gems, and the one before that was not bad at all. Take a look, going in reverse chronological order.

So yes, the outing against the Astros was bad, but I’m not giving up on a guy who came into that start really hot.The start against the Royals should be an interesting one. As we went over with Griffin, they get a lot of hits, but don’t score a lot of runs. Vargas gives up a lot of hits, but not a lot of runs. So, expect some stranded runners there.

As for the White Sox, they are a bottom two offensive team in just about every offensive category. Mind you, that’s not bottom two in the American League, but bottom two in all of baseball. Other than the Marlins, every team in the DH-free National League has scored more runs, gets on base more, etc. That’s amazing.

Heading into Angel Stadium, it’s hard to see those numbers going up too much. You have to play odds here and while the Astros defied those odds once against Vargas, don’t bet on it happening again. Make your own decision about the start against the Royals, but the White Sox are a pitcher-friendly opponent in 2013.

Vargas’ Projections for the Week

• Travis Wood, Chicago Cubs – Probable Starts: Monday vs. Colorado Rockies, Sunday vs. New York Mets
  

Do you know that Travis Wood enters this week with a WHIP under 1.00? Do you know that every one of his outings has been a quality start? This includes outings against the Brewers, Rangers, Reds (in Cincinnati), and Cardinals. Do you know that over the last two months of 2012, Wood had an ERA of 3.56, and a WHIP of 1.10?

Well, whether you knew it or not, it’s all true.

So, even though the Rockies have been pretty solid with the bats both at Coors Field and away from it, I feel alright with Wood against that lineup. Yes, they could make me eat those words, but their numbers were also aided by a really strong start to the season. Over the last few weeks, Colorado has normalized a little bit. You may not like the matchup, but I’m not scared of it.

I’m definitely not scared of the matchup against the Mets over the weekend. They have done a decent job scoring runs, but nothing more than that. Wood has done well against far better offenses this year. A red-hot pitcher should do just fine against that offense. Grab Wood and ride him until this hot streak ends. He’s still on an awful lot of waiver wires. Give him a roster spot — at least for the week.

Wood’s Projections for the Week

Photo courtesy of ElCapitanBSC.

I know that everyone likes putting labels on things. Well, I like putting labels on things and since I’m writing this, I’m going to go ahead and assume that the entire human race likes the same things I do.

So, with that being said, what do we call Kyle Kendrick? Being owned in 54 percent of Yahoo leagues and 86 percent of ESPN leagues, he’s not a true sleeper. By the way, don’t ask me if I can explain why there’s such a discrepancy. I can not. Still, it’s quite possible that if you’re reading this, he’s available in your league. That’s pretty amazing when you look at his numbers over his last 17 starts, dating back to last season. Take a look, going start-by-start.

Which gives us these totals over those 17 starts:

Now, consider that 17 starts is roughly half of a season. So, multiply this by two and you’re looking at a real Cy Young contender. Given his previous seasons, this is certainly surprising. The question is: how surprising?

The run at the end of 2012 made that season look a lot better. Before that August 14 gem against the Marlins, his ERA stood at 4.86. Now, at the end of that start, it was 4.53. A drop that big can be attributed to lack of innings. But still, by the end of the year, his ERA was 3.90. So, in a month-and-a-half, he dropped nearly a full point of of his ERA. That’s solid, but on it’s own, not necessarily indicative of anything more than a nice hot streak, even when you factor in this season’s success.

What is indicative of a good pitcher is a cool 3.22 ERA he recorded in 2011. Yes, Kendrick had his struggles through 2010 but since the start of the 2011 season, he’s got a 3.44 ERA and 1.228 WHIP. So, how is this season different?

Well, Kendrick’s throwing the ball over the plate. In 2010 and 2011, he walked 2.4 hitters per nine innings. In 2012, that number was up to 2.8. Thus far in 2013, he’s walking fewer than two hitters per nine inning, which is a strong rate for just about anyone. Kendrick is also allowing fewer than eight hits per nine innings for the first time in his career, which can be directly attributed to not walking guys.

When you’re not walking hitters, you’re not falling behind in the count much. That’s a big thing because when you fall behind in the count, you’re forced to challenge hitters with pitches over the middle of the plate. Naturally, that makes you more susceptible to allowing hits.

Conversely, when you jump ahead in the count, you can throw more off-speed stuff, nibbling the corners more. When hitters are down in the count, they have to protect the plate and swing at those pitches. Now, Kendrick’s not a big strikeout guy. He’s currently striking hitters out at a rate of 6.6 per nine innings, the same as it was in 2012. While that number is up from his previous career total (4.1 K’s per 9 innings), it’s still not dangerously high.

But when hitters are swinging at breaking pitches on the corner, or even out of the zone, the contact they make is not going to be especially loud. So, you get great runs like the one Kendrick has had over the last 17 starts. I’m not going to predict that Kendrick will literally stay at this rate all throughout 2013. But if he keeps throwing strikes, don’t expect that much of a drop.

It’s good to know that I’m not the only one who feels so. On Twitter, I posed a simple question to our followers. What do people feel about Kendrick? Is he for real or not? We got this response from Bryce Liesmer, one of our readers.

@fbcrackerjacks I do.Numbers show it.He has been good for last 1.5 years.

— Bryce Liesemer (@liefmeyer) May 9, 2013

True as that it, it actually goes a little beyond that. The Marlins lineup that he started this run against last year included both Jose Reyes and Giancarlo Stanton. Ryan Braun and Aramis Ramirez had great offensive seasons in 2012. In this run, he’s recorded at least one quality start against the Nationals, Reds, Giants, Cardinals, and Braves, who were the National League’s five playoff teams in 2012.

While the Nats did rough him up once in 2012, the other two failed quality starts came against struggling teams. This year’s Royals have a real hit-or-miss offense, and they roughed Kendrick up. Last year’s Astros lost 107 games, but roughed him up. Without those two bad starts, the numbers are even better.

What that all says is that I don’t worry about Kendrick when a tough opponent comes up. He’s turned a corner in his career and while I do expect him to normalize a bit throughout this season, he needs to be swiped up. If Kendrick’s available in your league, get out there and keep your rivals from grabbing him. I don’t want to say that Kendrick’s success has been a complete secret, but too many fantasy owners don’t seem aware of it. Don’t make that mistake.