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Latin America Afternoon Wrap

Allison Israel — Fri, 24 Feb 2012 21:34:02 +0000

BRL: The real strengthened 0.46% against the USD and was the outperformer in Latam today. USD/BRL gapped lower at the open from yesterday’s close at 1.7137. The central bank is still very uncomfortable with USD/BRL at or below 1.7000 which …
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EEMEA Afternoon Wrap

Allison Israel — Fri, 24 Feb 2012 18:04:34 +0000

TRY: The lira depreciated 0.51% against the USD today. TRY is the worst performer across EM currencies on the back of Iranian tensions and higher oil prices. The TRY basket is also trading very heavy and reached a high of …
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Faros Macro Minute – Go With The Flow

Brad Bechtel — Fri, 24 Feb 2012 12:19:46 +0000

Stream of Consciousness: Oil and Inflation charge forward like a freight train and are your main market drivers over the past few days along with the backdrop of a calming European situation now that some clarity on the way forward …
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Asia Afternoon Wrap

Ricky Smith — Fri, 24 Feb 2012 07:20:32 +0000

Very quiet end to the week in Asia, with little news or economic data to drive markets. Sentiment still remains firm, following in line with the US close with the Nikkei (+0.54%), Kospi (+0.60%) and the Shanghai Composite (0.72%) leading …
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Asia/London Setup – Quiet Friday // Quick Macro Snapshot

Ricky Smith — Fri, 24 Feb 2012 04:50:33 +0000

No news is good news for the EUR (well the strong German IFO is now signaling trend-line growth); nevertheless, we have finally broken out of the most recent (painful) range and are holding on so far to end the week. …
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Latin America Afternoon Wrap

Allison Israel — Thu, 23 Feb 2012 22:42:25 +0000

BRL: The real was the worst performer in the region, shedding 0.44% against the USD. The BCB returned with another round of intervention today. The first auction was through a reverse swap auction of $2bio (only $175mm was filled) which …
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Faros Tactical Trade Idea – Buy EUR/NZD

Brad Bechtel — Thu, 23 Feb 2012 21:43:21 +0000

Author: Brad Bechtel, bb@farostrading.com, 203-998-0950 Note: not part of our long or short term portfolios of trade recommendations. Faros Tactical Trade Idea: Buy EUR/NZD Our team here has been looking for this move in EUR/USD for some time, anticipating the …
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EEMEA Afternoon Wrap

Allison Israel — Thu, 23 Feb 2012 19:38:52 +0000

TRY: The lira was the worst performer in CEEMEA, weakening 0.20% against the USD. USD/TRY was better bid at the open with UK clearer interest while stops were also triggered in EUR/TRY to the topside. TRY has been negatively impacted …
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G20, EU and IMF Firewall Timeline

Douglas Borthwick — Thu, 23 Feb 2012 14:56:47 +0000

Douglas C. Borthwick G20 Finance Ministers will meet this weekend. At the meeting there will be a discussion on the IMF and increasing its resources. Led by Japan’s Finance Minister Jun Azumi, a poll will be taken among the ministers. …
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SNB Moving to Center Stage

Douglas Borthwick — Thu, 23 Feb 2012 13:22:16 +0000

Douglas C. Borthwick The Swiss National Bank has maintained the floor in EUR/CHF admirably over the past few months, with the 1.2000 level yet to be tested by the market. Swiss trade unions continue to believe that 1.4000 is a …
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Faros Macro Minute – Pick Your Spots

Brad Bechtel — Thu, 23 Feb 2012 12:56:14 +0000

Author: Brad Bechtel, bb@farostrading.com, 203-998-0950 Stream of Consciousness: The EUR/USD finally took a look through that infamous neck line level which coincides roughly with the 100 day moving average around 1.3324 and that took out model fund related stops and …
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Asia Afternoon Wrap

Ricky Smith — Thu, 23 Feb 2012 07:46:53 +0000

Another very quiet session in Asia as no new ‘macro’ developments continue to keep activity and volumes limited. NJA currencies sold off against the USD but were limited in their losses as exporters continue to use the rallies to sell. …
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Asia Setup – EURO…. EURO on the Range // S+P Ready To Dip?

Ricky Smith — Thu, 23 Feb 2012 04:55:46 +0000

EUR/USD and most pairs remain quiet yet again in Asia trading in a session void of any new ‘macro’ developments which is helping keep activity and volumes limited. Talk is sovereign accounts are playing the range (shocker), having offers stacked at …
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Latin America Afternoon Wrap

Allison Israel — Wed, 22 Feb 2012 22:06:55 +0000

BRL: The real was the outperformer in Latam today, gaining 0.46% against the USD. BRL opened marginally higher after the long carnival holiday. There was talk of a local magazine reporting that Mantega is working on new taxations for BRL …
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EEMEA Afternoon Wrap

Allison Israel — Wed, 22 Feb 2012 20:41:33 +0000

TRY: The lira depreciated 0.41% against the USD. Offshore interest in USD/TRY was two-way at the start of trade, limiting the pair to a 50 pip range. USD/TRY then climbed higher as Eastern European currencies traded lower after the European …
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Faros Market Talk Today 22 Feb 2012 – Alluring Equation

Dan Dorrow — Wed, 22 Feb 2012 16:17:40 +0000

Faros Market Talk Today 22 Feb 2012 – Alluring Equation Alluring equation: global growth + rock-bottom interest rates + well-priced markets + reduced tail risks = auspicious backdrop for FX market risk-taking on a 3-to-6-month-ahead view. Growth: The US and …
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Faros Macro Minute – Chopping Wood

Brad Bechtel — Wed, 22 Feb 2012 12:42:18 +0000

Author: Brad Bechtel, bb@farostrading.com, 203-998-0950 Stream of Consciousness: AUD/USD and the Dow Transports are starting to flash some warning signs. Definitely way too early to call a turn lower in either one, but against the backdrop of an S&P that …
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Asia Afternoon Wrap

Ricky Smith — Wed, 22 Feb 2012 07:31:57 +0000

Risk trades started off soggy, following an article printed after the NY close in the WSJ that Citigroup is facing a potential multibillion-dollar write-down as it begins unwinding its minority investment in the Morgan Stanley Smith Barney brokerage. China’s HSBC …
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Asia Setup – Aussie Rolling Over, Oil Looking Bid

Ricky Smith — Wed, 22 Feb 2012 03:38:58 +0000

Hump day trading in Asia moves on with little enthusiasm by markets. Risk trades are soggy, following an article printed after the NY close in the WSJ that Citigroup is facing a potential multibillion-dollar write-down as it begins unwinding its …
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Latin America Afternoon Wrap

Allison Israel — Tue, 21 Feb 2012 22:41:18 +0000

BRL: Local markets were closed on holiday. The BMF closed at 1.7100. CLP: The Chilean peso was the outperformer today, gaining 0.24% against the USD. Today’s rally was on the back of copper’s rally and USD supply ahead of today’s …
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EURO: Are Sell-Side Strategists Heads in the Sand?

Douglas Borthwick — Tue, 21 Feb 2012 19:45:58 +0000

Douglas C. Borthwick At the start of 2012, Italian 10-yr yields were at 7.00%. Peripheral risks were heightened in Greece specifically with many strategists believing Greece would leave the EURO altogether. Since then Italian yields have dropped dramatically to 5.42%, …
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EEMEA Afternoon Wrap

Allison Israel — Tue, 21 Feb 2012 17:29:56 +0000

TRY: The lira was the worst performer in CEEMEA, losing 0.64% against the USD. The CBRT kept its benchmark repo rate unchanged at 5.75% (in line with expectations) while cutting its overnight lending rate to 11.5% from 12.5% following recent …
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Faros Market Talk Today 21 Feb 2011 – Greece’s Watershed Event

Dan Dorrow — Tue, 21 Feb 2012 16:19:43 +0000

Faros Market Talk Today 21 Feb 2012 – Greece’s Waterhsed Event Monti says the Greek package is important because it removes contagion risk. Exactly. Our base case is confirmed: all parties agree against Mutually Assured Destruction. Remaining details (like PSI) …
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Macro Minute: More to Come

Jake Pflaum — Tue, 21 Feb 2012 13:06:28 +0000

Author: Brad Bechtel, bb@farostrading.com, 203-998-0950 Stream of Consciousness Well the Greek deal has finally been reached and the details can be found across the media spectrum. The highlights include a 53.5% haircut for investors which gets you to a 70% NPV, reduced …
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Asia Afternoon Wrap

Ricky Smith — Tue, 21 Feb 2012 06:40:57 +0000

Choppy trading conditions, as the beginning of the Asian trading session saw a heavy EUR as the night in Brussels dragged onto the early morning with no new news about any Greek agreement. News eventually hit that a deal was …
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Asia Setup – From Dusk Til Dawn, A Market Held Hostage

Ricky Smith — Tue, 21 Feb 2012 02:02:42 +0000

The market remains hostage to the situation in Brussels, as the Euro Group continues to delay their press conference which was originally slated to take place at 5pm EST, moved to 7pm EST though now they have at least had …
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EEMEA Afternoon Wrap

Allison Israel — Mon, 20 Feb 2012 17:23:24 +0000

TRY: The lira appreciated 0.80% against the USD. USD/TRY opened lower at 1.7436 from Friday’s close of 1.7544. We heard local banks and international names were notable sellers of USD/TRY today, allowing the pair to hit a low of 1.7361. …
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Portfolio Trade Recommendations – Performance Report

Allison Israel — Mon, 20 Feb 2012 15:28:07 +0000

Faros Portfolio Trade Recommendations Performance Report 20 Feb 2012

Faros Macro Minute – The Day We’ve Been Waiting For?

Jake Pflaum — Mon, 20 Feb 2012 13:00:53 +0000

Risk opened higher in Asia as the market digested the Chinese RRR cut which came as a slight surprise given the hawkish talk out of the PBOC and state economist Fan last week. Anticipation of the agreement to deliver Greece …
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Asia Afternoon Wrap

Ricky Smith — Mon, 20 Feb 2012 06:27:40 +0000

Most of the moves in USD/NJA happened at or before the open, as the market digested weekend news of the PBoC’s surprise decision to cut their RRR by 50bp and the Greek parliament has fond the additional EUR325mio of cuts …
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