STOCK CONSULTANTS

Tuesday Closing Report

2011-02-15T18:46:00.001+05:30

The immediate resistance remains at 5,555 on the Nifty and 18,500 on the Sensex
The Nifty opened on a positive note today, 12 points up, at 5,468. However, the index immediately slipped in the negative to touch an intra-day low of 5,408. The Sensex hit an intra-day low of 18,050. Buying resumed immediately and the two benchmarks made a new seven-day intra-day high of 5,507 and 18,362, respectively. The Nifty's intra-day high touched the 20-day moving average. The 301-point loss on the Nifty between 4 February 2011 and 10 February has been covered up to the extent of 255 points in just three days of gains from 11 February.
The Nifty broke another level of resistance at 5,480 and closed 25 points up at 5,481, while the Sensex ended 72 points up at 18,274. The advance-decline ratio on the National Stock Exchange was 1016:806. The Nifty's next resistance is at 5,555. As we mentioned yesterday, if this level too is crossed in the next two days, the market will move up substantially-towards 5,700 and 5,800.

RESISITENCE AND SUPPORT FOR 8 FEB 2011

2011-02-08T09:54:00.000+05:30

NIFTY
PIVOT POINTS
R1-5432
R2-5468
R3-5496
PIVOT-5404
S1-5368
S2-5341
S3-5305
MOVING AVERAGES
SMA-7: 5455.11
SMA-13: 5563.07
SMA-26: 5729.09
SMA-50: 5832.71
SMA-200: 5626.89
EMA-12: 5534.00
EMA-26: 5665.31
EMA-50: 5773.72
EMA-200: 5636.78
MACD: -131.31

BANKNIFTY
PIVOT POINTS
R1-10478
R2-10572
R3-10633
PIVOT-10416
S1-10322
S2-10260
S3-10167
MOVING AVERAGES
SMA-7: 10522.85
SMA-13: 10666.39
SMA-26: 10858.52
SMA-50: 11234.62
SMA-200:10928.35
EMA-12: 10614.42
EMA-26: 10840.84
EMA-50: 11148.36
EMA-200: 10880.13
MACD: -226.42
NB:-R=RESISTANCE S=SUPPORT

WEEK AHEAD 31.01.2011--04.02.2011

2011-01-31T10:40:00.000+05:30

WEEK

31-01-11 to 04-02-11

NIFTY RANGE

5460-5700

CRUCIAL

SUPPORT 5460 & RESISTANCE 5530

APPROACH

Stay side and avoid taking large directional bets

STRATEGY

Buy quality stock on every decline

MARKET TREND

Things could get worse – Uncertainty prevails

MARKET OUTLOOK

One has to brace for high volatility as well

FACTORS

Q-3 Earning, Economic Data & FII Flow

IMPORTANT

Take a stock centric approach and be extra careful

Ø OUT-LOOK:

After some relief last week, the Indian market resumed its slide, with the NSE Nifty falling under the crucial 200-DMA level. Another rate hike, which was in line with forecast, seemed to rattle the markets. Investor sentiment took a fresh knock as FIIs continued to sell amid persistent worries that high inflation and consequent hardening of interest rates could slow the Indian economy. The governance deficit, coupled with a spate of controversies and worsening of the external balance have also been flagged by many as among the key headwinds.

Next week will be important as well. It will be interesting to see whether the bulls can fight back after being battered several times in the past 2-3 months. FII flows will continue to be the critical variable for the Indian markets. Inflation also has to soften substantially from the current levels and the Government has to get cracking on reforms. In this context, the Budget will be a key event to watch out for. Intent may not be enough. UPA II must get its act together and take some bold measures to keep the momentum in the Indian economy going.

While monthly auto sales, trade data and manufacturing PMI will provide further clues on the state of the Indian economy, one also has to keep an eye on manufacturing and services PMI data from around the world, besides US monthly jobs data. In addition, a lot of key companies are yet to announce their results. Technically, the level to watch out for on the way up is 5530 and 5610. In case of a harder fall, the Nifty could find support at 5360. The going will not be easy for some time to come and one has to brace for high volatility as well. Take a stock centric approach and be extra careful before the tide turns in favour of the bulls again.

Ø TECHNICALLY:

We think Indian markets have been an underperformer for a long time now. In fact it’s quite astonishing with what India has done vis-à-vis the rest of the world because you have a situation where the US markets are trading at 52 week highs, European markets are doing extremely well, some of the Asian markets till a week back were trading at one month highs, the dollar index was sustaining below 80, crude was sustaining below USD 90 per barrel and despite all these triggers the Indian markets have done what they have done in the last four to six weeks.

So yes it’s been a bit surprising because underperformance by India for as long as 2-3 months is something that we have not seen for a very long time but technically clearly we think once the Nifty broke that 6000-6040 band you had a pattern break down confirmation which was really the first signal of weakness and then we got added conformation below 5760 and at this point of time we think the technical setup continues to be quite weak even though the markets are slightly oversold.

We think the momentum can actually take the markets lower because the weekly moving averages are gone after a very long time, there was this huge trend line that was supporting the market in the month of November and December that has given away in the last couple of weeks and we think the volume activity sometimes gives you a better indication than the price action itself and you have seen in the one month that whenever the markets have pulled back the volume activity has been very low but while the markets have corrected suddenly you see a substantial jump into volumes. So clearly that is going with the trend.

We guess looking at the entire setup we believe that the markets can actually go down to a level of maybe 5410-5360 on the Nifty where there are strong medium term supports. Not to say that those support levels will hold but we will have to re-look and re-analyze the situation once the markets are there.

Having said all of this, we believe that this is still a bull market correction because the market seems to have completed a large cycle, getting back to 5500 levels itself was a big thing for our market and we think that this is the largest bull market correction since the uptrend began in March 2009. So even if we were to correct another 3% - 5% we think we would still remain in a bull market and have the potential to actually take out lifetime highs sometime later this year.

Ø CHART PATTERN:

TREND CHANNEL: The Nifty has made a trend channel since October 2009. The trend has now fallen back into the channel. Technically, this was a very negative development and the negativity is playing out very well. The lower trend line of the channel is indicating a price target of about 5350-5250 for this trend.

MOMENTUM: The medium / long term momentum indicator (MACD) is showing a divergence in its chart. The price chart has made two higher tops (8/1/10 & 5/11/10), but the corresponding levels in the MACD are making lower tops. This suggests that a phase of sustainable weakness is developing in the trend.

OUTLOOK: The medium term charts of the Nifty remain in a very weak position. The momentum continues to support further weakness. The trend channel suggests a target of 5350-5250. Going by the present technical conditions, we expect the Nifty to decline from these levels and the level of 5250 looks reachable.

Ø TRADING RANGE:

The close was very disappointing and it might have taken a few people by surprise as well. We started on the back foot on the Nifty and the fear is this 5600-5800 kind of range that we have been talking about, is probably set to break down. That is the fear which a lot of people will have that maybe the first signs of a breakdown were visible the day before and we now move a notch lower.

That has been the problem with the Nifty for the last few weeks if you have been mapping it. It has been showing an inclination to just grind to lower ranges. It is not a waterfall kind of decline but everything is selling off 20-25% but its grinding lower. The pullbacks are getting shallower and shallower. You get one or two days of a pullback inevitably ending lower than where you set your sights and then the Nifty moves down to a slightly lower trading range.

A while back 5700 was the floor and it held for a few months and then we slowly moved down to that 5600-5620 which probably got broken the day before. Now you are going to ask yourself what is the new range for the market if that range was taken out and whether we are now drifting down to a 5400-5700 kind of trading range. The next few days will be critical as to what is the new trading range for the market if indeed last 2 day was a breakdown.

Whether it happens immediately or not is a different matter because that is a matter of trading and predicting the absolute near-term which is impossible to do. It could well be that this morning, everybody is bearish and everybody expects an immediate fall down to 5400. The Nifty might do something else. It might just trap the shorts out by falling 50 points and then rebounding, clean out the shorts and then fall.

These things are absolutely impossible to map, particularly, when there is consensus bearishness from a near-term trading perspective as the series has just opened up. But that general grind lower into a lower kind of trading range has been the format of this market for the last few weeks and that still remains in place.

Ø IMPORTANT CONCERNS:

We think our biggest concern right now is some of the best performers during a correction in the last 1-1.5 year as you know which is IT, auto, FMCG, Pharma. These four big heavyweights have actually not been spared in the current decline which is not positive at all because they were always the ones that supported the market and helped the market recover in a V shaped manner and let’s not forget last year we had three or four big corrections but every time the market got to support levels it tested them, rebounded and then we witnessed a V shaped recovery and then went on to make a higher high.

But this time with what has happened in the early part of January the Nifty moving to 6150-6200 and then immediately correcting, that’s really has not been a good development. So yes 3% to 5% downside seems very likely, it could extend on the downside and we think the reason could be global markets because so far the Indian market has been underperforming because of the local news-flow.

Our medium term target of 1300 on the S&P 500, 12000 on the Dow and both these levels are extremely important resistance levels for the US markets and if they were to correct 5-6% from here which we think is quite likely we think because India has already been an underperformer it can crack a little bit more so the setup does not look too good on the face of it.

Ø ROAD AHEAD:

It is difficult to say but if you look at the seasonal aspects of global markets typically, November to early January is a period where equity markets generally do well and apart from India most other global markets have really followed that in the last 2-3 months but India typically in the second week of January is where the markets tend to top out which has really played out very well this time.

We think over the next couple of months we will continue to see volatility. Yes, you could see 3% to 5% downside but anything beyond that is a very difficult to call because we think the US markets continue to be in a big bull market. Yes you could see a 500-700 point correction for the Dow.

But after that we think the US markets have substantially higher targets over the next three to six months and in that kind of a scenario we really do not want to call a bear market in India because as we pointed out earlier even if you were to correct 15-20% from the top we can still remain in bull market mode given the fact that India was one of the best performers last year.

And let’s not forget the month of September where we moved from 5300 to 6300 in a single month so going back to 5300 we think is just a normal retracement from a bigger picture perspective. So we think we will watch once the Nifty goes back to 5400 but we are not ruling out a break of that also.

Ø SIGNIFICANT RESISTANCE:

5760 is quite important because it was an important support, the markets spent a lot of time, rebounded from that particular level a few times. So we think 5760 on a closing basis we think that would now act as a resistance in case we were to see a pullback at any point of time.

We don’t think that the markets will keep correcting on a daily basis, you will see wild swings, you will see pull backs, giving one the feel that a bottom has taken place but we really think it’s going to be difficult for the market to take out 5760 on a closing basis. If it does happen maybe another 100-150 points but that’s about it, we think beyond that it looks a bit difficult.

Ø BANK NIFTY:

That’s really taken leadership on the downside and once again we are not very surprised because you had most of these PSU banking stocks almost seeing an exponential rise in the second half of 2009 and almost the entire 2010.

So Bank Nifty moving down to levels of 9900-10000 seems very likely. So a 6% to 7% fall from current levels and thereafter we see another pull back and we will have to see whether they are actually bottomed out around 10000 or not.

Ø FII ACTIVITY:

So much noise about FIIs going underweight on India. You tend to worry about what will happen if FIIs actually did sell significant quantities if they pulled out USD 1.5-2 billion in a very quick time. Barring that one week at the start of the month when FIIs sold USD 1 billion, it has been pretty or patchy from there.

We don’t think they have sold a whole lot to justify an 8% down series. It is the fear of their selling probably, which has caused the damage so far but the actually selling in that proportion has not happened. The day before, however, was a bad number of Rs 1,600 crore, maybe it was expiry day but it is still alarming to see a large FII figure in the context of a market which seems to slip down from its trading range. So that was not comforting at all.

We hope that post the monetary policy, FIIs have not become even more alarmed or concerned about the macro or the inflation situation and how India is trying to tackle it. Thursdays’ sell figures are an indication of that. If that is the case, then you need to be quite alarmed.

The Put writing is going lower and lower. Now, 5500 Put’s on the February series is where the action is. The smart money is probably saying we are now grinding down to those levels 5400-5500 and on the way up 5800 Call. The indication is the range is probably shifting a bit lower for the February series, to those kinds of goal posts and participation is thinning. If you look at the Stock Futures at the start of the series, people are slowly getting away from the market because of the volatility and the hurt that they experienced in January.

Ø Q3-EARNING:

The results announced so far have been mixed. Earnings of firms which beat market expectations include the country's largest lender State Bank of India, two-wheeler maker Bajaj Auto, engineering and construction firm L&T, cigarette and packaged foods maker ITC and IT giant TCS. Others such as energy giant Reliance Industries, IT bellwether Infosys, drug maker Dr Reddy's and consumer products firm Hindustan Unilever lagged expectations.

With the rise in key policy rates by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) recently, interest cost will only rise in the coming quarters that could hurt earnings going forward. If raw material costs keep rising at a fast clip, companies will feel the heat of slowing sales growth and rising cost of operations that could start eating into profit growth faster than they have till now.

The combined net profit of a total of 683 firms rose 20.1% to Rs 49158 crore on 20.2% growth in sales to Rs 415367 crore in Q3 December 2010 over Q3 December 2009.

Shares of car major Maruti Suzuki will react to the firm's Q3 results when trading resumes on Monday, 31 January 2011. The company unveils Q3 results on Saturday, 29 January 2011. BPCL, Infrastructure Development Finance Company (IDFC), NTPC, DLF, and Sun Pharma are due to report earnings on Monday, 31 January 2011. Bharti Airtel and Hero Honda report third quarter results on Wednesday, 2 February 2011, to be followed by ACC and Ambuja Cements on Thursday, 3 February 2011. Suzlon Energy reports Q3 results on Friday, 4 February 2011.

Ø MONTHLY NUMBERS:

Auto and cement firms will be in focus as companies start unveiling monthly sales data for January 2011 from 1 February 2011.

Ø PMI:

On the macro front, the data on HSBC Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index for January 2011 is likely to be announced on Tuesday, 1 February 2011. The index, indicating the performance of the manufacturing sector had eased to 56.7 in December 2010 from November's reading of 58.4.

The data on HSBC Markit Business Activity Index for January 2011 could also be released next week. The HSBC Markit Business Activity Index, indicating the performance of the services sector, had eased in December 2010 from a four-month high in the previous month, reflecting a slightly slower expansion in new business. The HSBC Markit Business Activity Index, based on a survey of around 400 firms, fell to 57.7 in December 2010 from 60.1 in November 2010 -- its strongest reading since July 2010.

Ø CHINA RATE HIKE:

Fears of a rate hike in China to tame inflation may cap upside on global stocks. There are talks of a rate hike from Chine before the onset of the Luner New Year holiday. The Chineese stock markets are shut from 2 February 2011 to 8 February 2011 for the Lunar New Year holiday. The Chinese government recently announced increase in the minimum down payment on second-home purchases to 60% from 50%.

Ø SECTORIAL WATCH:

CNX DEFTY: As per our expectations, the weakness in the medium term momentum has worked in the trend and the last three weeks has seen Defty come down strongly. We expect this trend to sustain as indicators continue to be weak and the index can decline to 4000 in the near future. We remain bearish on the index.

BSE PSU: The medium term momentum in the PSU has turned weak. The index will continue with its decline in the coming week.

BSE BANKEX: Banking index may continue with its weakness in the coming week. Technical support exists at around 11800 level. But we expect this support to be broken.

BSE IT: IT index appears strongest amongst sectoral indices. Strong support exists at around 6400 levels and only a decisive move below it can open up new downsides.

BSE CAPITAL GOODS: BSE Cap Goods had declined in line with other sectoral indices. Medium term technicals are weak and suggest that the index can decline further. Technicals indicate a target of 12400 in the medium term.

BSE AUTO: The BSE Auto index has declined in the last few weeks. It is currently trading weak and technical indicators suggest further weakness ahead with targets of 8500.

Ø GLOBAL WATCH:

S & P 500: S&P500 continues to make new 52 week highs. However, its upside momentum may be losing a bit of steam. A decisive move below 1270 may lead to weakness in the trend.

BOVESPA: The Bovespa market slipped last week. A break below 69600 has seen an acceleration of momentum on the downside. Support is expected to come around 67000 level.

SANGHAI SSE COMPOSITE: SSE took support from the levels that we had mentioned last week. It moved sideways with a negative bias making a low of 2661. Short term strength can develop if it crosses the level of 2760. Support is expected to come around 2650 levels.

HANG SANG: The HSI uptrend remains in force as long as the levelof 23500 is not breached on the downside. Only a breach below it will negate the uptrend which can then take it to levels closer to 23000.

NIKKEI: The Nikkei recovered from the low of 10250 during the week. It is currently trading in a wait and watch zone and only a breach above 10650 or below 10250 will lead to a sustainable trend.

FTSE: The FTSE uptrend may have reversed below 5900. Weakness is likely to continue this week which could see it test 5800 or lower. Stiff resistance will come around 6050 level.

MSCI-EMI: The MSCI EM is looking weak and may see further declines this week. Technical support is seen around 1110.

Ø DERVIATIVES ROLL OVER:

Series on Series Nifty registered a loss of 8.15% as it closed at 5604.30 vis-à-vis previous series close of 6101.85.

Broader market rollover was at 80.75%, close to its previous rolls average of around 82% and Nifty witnessed a lower rollover of around 54.08% as compared to its previous rolls average of around 60%.

Such nominal rollover along with lowest rollover cost in the last four months suggest possibly what ever rollover has taken place it is on short side further suggesting that February series has began on a negative note.

Series on Series Nifty in January series has closed in premium of 23-24 points vis-à-vis premium of 28-29 points in December Series.

Day on Day in December Series out of 24 trading sessions none of the sessions ended in a discount where as for January series out of 19 sessions 4 of the sessions ended in a discount.

Going forward the high Put build up @ 5500 level and high Call build up @ 5800 level has defined the broader range for the market in the February series which suggests going forward 5500 will act as good support and 5800 as good resistance. Till either side is breached the market is likely to be seen within the given band and in consolidation mode.

Stockwise highest rollover was visible in GTL Ltd followed by Glaxosmithkline Pharma Ltd, Dish TV India Ltd, Aditya Birla Nuvo Limited and Jet Airways (India) Ltd.

Sector specific Sugar witnessed highest rollover followed by Textiles, Infra, Telecom and Finance.

Textiles, Chemicals & Fertilizers, FMCG, Shipping, Finance, Power, Real Estate, Auto, Banking, IT, Telecom and Metals have seen an increase in rollover in comparison to the previous month.

Media, Infra, Capital Goods, Cement, Sugar, Oil & Gas and Pharma have seen a decrease in rollover in comparison to the previous month.

IN-A-NUTSHEL:

Market tested the level of 5460 before settling above the level of 5500. It has tested and closed near its 50 -weeks average of 5536. Technical selling pressure and pessimistic view on the fundamental factors had the effect on the Nifty. For the coming week, level of 5530 should be watched cautiously. Failure to close above the level of 5530 will invite the further unwinding of longs and selling pressure. On the downside level of 5360 is the next major support for market. On the higher side pullback can be expected if Nifty stays above 5530 for the level of 5610 minimum and maximum to 5700 levels. Broader strategy should be to reduce longs at each major resistance levels. Sector to remain in limelight are banks, oil, gas and engineering.

WEEKLY REPORT 18-10-10 to 22-10-10

2010-10-18T11:41:00.001+05:30

WEEK

18-10-10 to 22-10-10

NIFTY RANGE

5900-6200

CRUCIAL

SUPPORT 5960 & RESISTANCE 6120

APPROACH

Stay sideways till stability

STRATEGY

Be Stock specific

MARKET TREND

We don’t think it’s a very trending market

MARKET OUTLOOK

'Undertone' of the Market, become un-clear

FACTORS

Q-2 Earning, Global cues & Fund Flow

IMPORTANT

Focus on individual stocks as the focus shifts to Q2 results

OUT-LOOK:

The big story for the coming week will of course be the mega Coal India IPO which opens on Monday. Meanwhile, the volatile consolidation phase continues in the Indian market. Investors seem to be treading cautiously given that we are in the midst of the earnings season. Also, some cooling was expected as last month's rally had left the market a little overheated. So, after five straight weeks of advance, which lifted the key indices near their all-time highs, we have seen a minor pullback over the last two weeks. Still, the bulls almost pulled off new highs in the middle of this week when the Sensex soared by nearly 500 points only to retreat in the next two sessions.

After this week's volatility people are bound to be a little jittery about the near-term prospects for the market. And, there are no easy answers as results will continue to trickle in. At the same time, the anxiety over the fragile external scenario will keep the market players on tenterhooks. The heightened action in the global currency markets and the verbal feud over the sticky issue could also weigh on the sentiment. Fed chief Ben S. Bernanke says he is ready to ease the monetary stance further but will be cautious in unleashing Quantitative Easing 2.

All eyes are now on the next FOMC meeting, which is slated for Nov. 3. US will also hold congressional elections around the same time. Back home, the RBI policy meeting is scheduled for Nov. 2. Before that there will be a G20 summit in South Korea on Oct. 22-23.

Among the top results next week include Sesa Goa, HDFC, L&T, Bajaj Finserv, ING Vysya Bank, Mindtree, Bajaj Auto, Concor, HDFC Bank, Ashok Leyland, Persistent Systems, GSFC, Ambuja Cement, SKF India, Allahabad Bank, South Indian Bank, Mahindra Forgings, TVS Motor, Sasken, Zensar Tech, ACC, Eclerx, M&M Financial, Chennai Petro, Ipca Labs and Biocon.

Lots of global data points will be on tap as well. In the US, a slew of housing sector reports will be released apart from statistics on industrial production, Fed's Beige Book survey, weekly jobless claims, leading economic indicators and the Philly Fed index. Germany will announce ZEW survey of Economic Sentiment and IFO business outlook. Minutes from the BOE and RBA's last policy meetings will also be issued, besides UK retail sales. China's Q3 GDP and September economic indicators will also be watched closely.

LIQUIDITY:

The markets are currently driven by liquidity and at some point people would find it a bit expensive. They would be pulling out liquidity and that’s exactly what is happening right now. Traders feel that possibly the markets do not have too much of an upside from here. Because of which people are booking out at this point of time and we think again we are close to that 6060-6120 band. And, in case we break that then yes we think there is some more trouble for us.

TREND:

We won’t say the market has broken down; it’s been doing these wild swings because a lot of weak hands have recently entered-it’s still between 6000 and 6200 and you wouldn’t be surprised in watching another 200-300 point up in a day because once the market starts moving in one direction everybody piles on. So we don’t think it’s a very trending market, it could remain very volatile but within a range.

RANGE:

For the coming week, the nifty has a base of 5810-5860. The markets will possibly hold on in this range at least till the Coal India IPO gets over. Post that there could be decent amount of selling coming in and we should possibly look at much lower levels because we feel that the markets are overvalued. So once it breaks that 5810-5860 we can change the view but at the same time during the next one week we will not be surprised if we again try to scale that 6200-6250 mark but that again should be utilized by people to sell.

DERIVATIVES FRONT:

Clearly a day where the turnover was very high. You saw the PCR moving down from 1.39 to 1.35. You saw unwinding happening anywhere between 6100 to 6400 put. On the Nifty front also there was premium maintained around the 30 level but we saw fresh shorts and unwinding happening on Friday. Also important was 6200 call which saw huge writing happening in. The premium actually came down by nearly Rs 25 – Rs 30 which will come on your screen. Also we saw huge build up happening in nearly 25% open interest build up happening on this strike price but it was all about IT on Friday. After Infosys results which were in line but it led disappointment because the price already factored in the numbers which came in. So you saw fresh shorts opening up in any large cap stock, whether it was Infosys, TCS, Wipro.

We will start with Infosys where you saw over 15% build up on the short side. The stock was down by nearly Rs 100 and also the turnover picked up so nearly Rs 110 gone on Infosys. TCS again people have been bullish on the stock but again factoring in that the results might come in, in line with expectations. So we saw fresh shorts opening there as well. The stock again saw build up of nearly 10% in open interest and was down by nearly 3% in the market. LIC housing finance, it is a trend which is happening in the market for the last few days. The companies come with good set of numbers but we see profit booking happening in Axis bank, LIC Housing finance are key examples. LIC for example the stock saw build up happening in on the short side and stock was down nearly Rs 79 in the market which is not a frequent case with this company.

But the fertilizers continue its rampant run up which they have seen in the last few days. Nagarjuna fertilizers surprised the markets again on Friday. We saw good build up happening on Nagarjuna fertilizers the stock did well today in the market and Orchid chemicals it has been surprising many people on the street. The stock has been moving from Rs 200 to Rs 320 to Rs 325 up nearly 8% - 9% in the market, came off from days high ended up nearly 5% but we saw huge build up of nearly 40% happening on the stock on Friday.

IPO:

The government plans to raise about Rs 15,000 crore from divestment of 10% stake in Coal India. The Coal India IPO is billed as the country's largest issue ever. The IPO of Coal India opens for bidding on Monday, 18 October 2010 and closes on Thursday, 21 October 2010. The government has set Rs 225-245 per share price band for the Coal India IPO. Retail investors will get shares at 5% discount on the final issue price to be discovered through the book-building route. The Indian government is selling roughly 63.16 crore Coal India shares, or 10% of the company.

The Coal India IPO is a part of a strong equity issuance pipeline over the next six months that could soak liquidity from the secondary equity markets. Indian companies are estimated to raise about Rs 36,000 crore from share sales over the next three to six months.

Q2 RESULTS:

IT bellwether Infosys kick-started the Q2 results season on Friday, 15 October 2010, reporting a strong results and the company also raised its earnings as well revenue forecast for the year ending March 2011, in both dollar and rupee terms at the time of announcing the results.

Larsen & Toubro and HDFC will announce Q2 results on Monday, 18 October 2010. Bajaj Auto and HDFC Bank will announce Q2 results on Tuesday, 19 October 2010. Hindustan Zinc and HCL Technologies will announce results on Wednesday, 20 October 2010. ACC and Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) report earnings on Thursday, 21 October 2010. Bank of India and Wipro will be announcing Q2 results on Friday, 22 October 2010.

FII ACTIVITY:

Foreign funds continue to aggressively mop up Indian stocks. Net equity inflow in 2010 now stands at a record $22.70 billion, above last year's $17.45 billion, as per data from the Securities & Exchange Board of India (Sebi). The Sebi data includes FII inflow through primary and secondary market route. A sizable chuck of FII inflow this year is from India-focused exchange traded funds as well as long-only funds.

IN-A-NUTSHEL:

Nifty is likely to take support around 5800 next week. In case, it bounces back, we advise some profit booking. One need to be stock specific at current levels. With India Inc entering into the result season, the Nifty is likely to trade in the range of 5900-6200. Any positive surprises in the results could enable the Nifty to test new highs as FIIs continue to pour in money. Also, the aggressive writing in ATM and OTM Calls could see covering in these Calls. If 6000 is breached, on the back of negative flows, then the indices may see another bout of sell-off.

THE WEEK THAT WAS

Correction continues...Sensex slips 0.6% in the week

Nifty for the week slipped 0.7% for the week and Sensex closed lower by 0.6%.

The markets closed lower for the second consecutive week, despite a phenomenal attempt to take out its all time high of 6,357 on Thursday. Key indices digested the nasty IIP surprise, but succumbed to selling pressure later on in the week as Infosys FY11 guidance failed to cheer the street. Meanwhile, FII inflows jumped to the record levels ahead of the Coal India IPO. Nifty for the week slipped 0.7% for the week and Sensex closed lower by 0.6%.

Sensex intra-week high of 20,854 and low of 20,090 while, Nifty intra-week high of 6,284 and low of 6,050

Sensex top gainers: The top gainers in the Sensex were Tata Motors (up 4.8%), Wipro (up 2.4%), Tata Steel (up 1.5%), Maruti Suzuki (up 1.4%) and HDFC (up 1.4%).

Sensex top Losers: The top losers in the Sensex were Bharti Airtel (down 5.5%), NTPC (down 4.8%), Hero Honda (down 2.9%), Reliance Power (down 2.9%) and L&T (down 2.7%).

- The BSE IT Index (up 0.4%)

- The BSE Healthcare Index (down 0.2%)

- The BSE Banking Index (down 1%)

- The BSE Auto Index (up 0.5%)

- The BSE Oil & Gas Index (down 1%)

- The BSE Capital Goods Index (down 2.1%)

- The Realty Sector (down 0.3%)

- The Metals sector (up 0.6%)

MEMORIES OF THE WEEK:

TOP STORIES:

§ Coal India IPO opens on Oct. 18

§ CIL issue suits long-term investors

§ CIL eyes R6,000-cr war chest from IPO proceeds

§ Global currency war heats up

§ India ranked 112 on Global gender gap rankings

§ Amitabh magic puts KBC rating on top

DOMESTIC NEWS:

§ India's industrial output slows sharply in August

§ Inflation inches higher...Food inflation jumps

§ Rupee soars past 44 on heavy FII inflows

§ Indirect tax collections up 44% in April-Sept 2010

§ Govt offers 34 oil, gas blocks under NELP IX

§ Gold prices in India cross Rs. 20,000 mark

§ Cairn India open offer price final: Vedanta

§ RIL raises US$1.5bn via US arm

§ Infosys Q2 net profit up 17% QoQ

§ Nirma to delist shares from NSE and BSE

§ Suzlon Energy to buy IDFC PE shares in SE Forge

§ Tata Docomo to launch 3G services by Diwali

§ Maran hikes stake in SpiceJet to 53%

§ Tata Motors unveils MPV Aria

GLOBAL NEWS:

§ Fed ready for QE2 to prop up US economy

§ Three win Economics Nobel for work on labour market

§ China’s trade gap with US hits record

§ Singapore's economic growth slows

§ EU new car registrations down nearly 10%

§ Global PC shipments rise 7.6% in Q3

§ Stan Chart to raise US$5.3bn via rights issue

§ Pfizer to acquire King Pharma

§ OPEC leaves output quota steady

§ IEA raises oil demand forecast

§ Microsoft unleashes Windows Phone 7

Dr. Rakesh Jhunjhunwala Recommendation Committee

2010-09-22T13:16:00.003+05:30

My life has been so busy the past week. I had to deal with a Sensex that kept changing as many times as Himesh Reshammiya's hairstyle. Then I had to go on every TV channel from NDTV to CNN-IBN to CNBC & UTVi. I had to make appearances even on Fashion TV, Pogo, Nickelodeon and Aastha channel. All of this had to be done because as a market genius I am required by law to spread my infinite knowledge through the television medium especially when there's a crisis.

However my troubles have been compounded by the damn government. I was hoping to celebrate Diwali this weekend and monitor my diabetes levels but the government, the SEBI and RBI have asked me to prepare a classified report detailing the reasons why the markets are falling. I don't appreciate being told by the government what to do.

But I've agreed to do it anyway because the government has promised me an honorary doctorate from the University Of Lakshadweep in return for my efforts. In future I will be known as Dr. Rakesh Jhunjhunwala. My report will also be published after this crisis is over under the name "The Jhunjhunwala Report 2008: Recommendations Of The Rakesh Jhunjhunwala Committee-Headed By Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, Written By Rakesh Jhunjhunwala With Music And Lyrics By Anu Malik".

It will become a case study for economic students worldwide. Some communists will try to discredit my report when it is tabled in parliament. It will be fun to watch them scream their lungs off and throw their hands up in the air. It weakens their hearts and increases their blood pressure thus decreasing their life expectancy rate.

Some of my recommendations will be:

Ban SHORT Sellers: People under the height of Four Feet should be banned from trading on the Sensex. Especially people like He Ping Ping, the Guinness World Record holder for being the world's shortest man. He Ping Ping is a notorious short seller whose actions always lead to the Sensex falling.

Ban SHORTS Sellers: Some loose characters think that the BSE is an open market to sell shorts. Traders and Hindi film heroines are busy buying shorts from shorts sellers. If the traders keep buying shorts and keep looking at heroines like Mallika Sherawat buying shorts, who will buy stocks?

Ban the Capital: There is enough capital in the market. The biggest financial institutions SEBI, RBI, IMF and FII are all spelt with capital letters; there is no need for more capital. In fact small letters must be used to spell financial institutions.

Don't ban the Bajrang Dal and MNS: Institutions like the MNS and Bajrang Dal destroy public property as a result of which Indian industries need to manufacture more products and increase their output in order to replace everything broken or burnt in an MNS/Bajrang Dal riot. Companies will therefore increase their revenues due to extra sales which will lead to higher stock prices which will lead to a higher Sensex.

Finally, investors like Rakesh Jhunjhunwala must be requested to buy shares of blue chip companies at face value of Rs.10 and not market values. The government must also provide these shares tax free and declare dividends of 700 Billion Dollars/share.

Created with Microsoft Office OneNote 2007
One place for all your notes and information

NIFTY WAVE ANALYSIS FOR 15 JULY 2010

2010-07-15T08:37:00.002+05:30

Go Long at / above 5371.7. Keep Stoploss at 5366.32. Target 1 is 5402.92.

Go Long at / above 5383.63. Keep Stoploss at 5366.32. Target 2 is 5423.36.

Go Long at / above 5398.75. Keep Stoploss at 5383.63. Target 3 is 5449.28.

Wave 1 5371.7 - 5402.92

Wave 2 5402.92 - 5383.63

Wave 3 5383.63 - 5423.36

Wave 4 5423.36 - 5398.75

Wave 5 5398.75 - 5449.28

Wave A 5453.45 - 5402.92

Wave B 5402.92 - 5434.15

Wave C 5434.15 - 5394.42

MARKET 30JUNE2010

2010-06-30T08:05:00.001+05:30


.	S 2	5192.05
.	S 1	5224.1
.	Pivot	5267.85
.	R 1	5299.9
.	R 2	5343.65

		NSE 5333.5	BSE 17534.09
SMA/EMA	50 DMA	5142/5164	17140/17223
SMA/EMA	100DMA	5116/5120	17070/17079
SMA/EMA	200DMA	5068/4957	16920/16518

		ADVANCE	DECLINE	RAIO
A/D RATIO	BSE	608	1088	0.56
A/D RATIO	NSE	389	929	0.42

16 june 2010

2010-06-16T08:45:00.003+05:30

JMCPROJECT SL 217 TGT 275

BUY ENGINEERS INDIA SL 228 TGT 365

Cairn India has started selling crude oil from its Mangala oil field in Rajasthan to private sector Reliance Industries and Essar Oil using a heated oil pipeline. (ET)

ONGC has said that its Assam asset is losing production due to ‘infinite' shut-down of Numaligarh Refinery Ltd, a subsidiary of Bharat Petroleum. (BL)

Oil regulator Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board has approved the tariff that GAIL India will charge from consumers for moving natural gas through its two main trunk pipelines. (ET)

Reliance Infratel has all but approved a merger deal that could see its tower assets combine with smaller rival GTL Infrastucture in exchange for Rs150bn in cash and a significant stake in a new entity for shareholders of its parent company. (ET)

Tata Motors is contemplating a price hike of the new Nanos in the region of Rs5,000-15,000 from August-September this year. (ET)

M&M will hold negotiations with former JV partner Renault for reforming the Logan platform and making it usable for applications other than passenger cars. (BS)

Larsen & Toubro, one of the contenders for NTPC's Rs250bn bulk tender, asserted that there was no technical irregularity in its bid. (FE)

Bank of India raised Rs10bn through bonds. (FE)

Fortis Healthcare is yet to decide on its course of action to respond to Malaysian fund Khazanah’s offer to take control of Singapore’s Parkway Holdings. (ET)

Dr Reddy’s said that the US court injunction on the launch of Allegra D24 in America will hit its revenue targets. (ET)

Cipla plans to acquire a significant minority stake in two biotech companies, one each in Goa and Shanghai, for US$65mn. (ET)

Gammon Infrastructure entered into a memorandum of agreement for acquisition of an entity, which is setting up a 250MW coal-based power plant in Western India. (FE)

Rallis India plans to spend Rs1bn over the next 12-18 months towards acquiring new equipment and the launch of various products. (BL)

Aban Offshore is close to either hiring or buying a drill ship to complete the job in Venezuela. (BL)

Strides Arcolab has received the USFDA approval for a drug taken for acute migraine attacks. (BL)

Emami is in the final stages of acquiring a manufacturing unit of an FMCG company in Egypt for ~Rs1bn. (BS)

Shriram Transport Finance Company’s new equipment finance subsidiary, Shriram Equipment Finance Company, will commence operations from September 1, 2010, with an initial capital of Rs500mn. (BS)

JK Lakshmi Cements plans to invest ~Rs1bn to set up ready mix- concrete plants in Mumbai, Gujarat and North India. (ET)

DQ Entertainment entered into an exclusive broadcasting agreement with Sun TV Network for the provision of animation content. (BL)

Falcon Tyres plans to set up Rs5.5bn greenfield project in Uttarakhand to produce tyres for two- and three-wheelers. (BL)

The government has okayed the sale of a 10% stake each in state-run Coal India and Hindustan Copper, that could raise around Rs150bn. (ET)

TRADING TODAY

Trading Ideas
l Remain stock specific from current levels.
l Trading ideas which we like are Hindalco (Target Rs160), Dena Bank (Target
Rs108), SBI (Target Rs2,450) and Sesa Goa (Target Rs388). Traders maintain stop
loss accordingly.
Investment Ideas
Strategy should be to accumulate investment idea like JSW Steel.
JSW Steel: CMP @ Rs1,233
l JSW Steel reported consolidated 4QFY10 results, which were in line with our estimates.
l The company has announced acquisition of coking coal mines in US having resources
of 123mt. This is expected to make JSW 20% cpative for coal in FY12E.
l JSW has announced issuance of 17.5mn warrants at a total consideration of Rs21.2bn,
indicating a conversion price of Rs1,210/share.
l JSW has plans to increase iron ore integration from current 25% to around 70% in
next 2-3 years.
l JSW will witness significant volume growth of around 55% in FY12 with the
commissioning of 3.2mtpa capacities. Hence we expect the company to report a
growth of around 70% in EPS for FY12E to Rs145.7 from Rs84.1 in FY11E.
l We maintain BUY on the stock with target price of Rs1,521 (5.5x FY12E EV/
EBITDA).

market @ close 11 june 2010

2010-06-11T15:56:00.003+05:30

Sensex ends above 17K on global cues; RIL, BHEL lead

Sensex ends up 120pts at 17,042

Reliance to invest Rs 4,800cr in Infotel

RIL acquires majority stake in Infotel Broadband

2010-06-11T15:44:00.000+05:30

In a bid to enter the telecoms sector, Reliance Industries (RIL) is learnt to have acquired a majority stake in Infotel Broadband, reports CNBC-TV18 quoting sources.
The decision, which, according to sources, was taken on Monday, would be announced shortly.
RIL is expected to pay BWA spectrum fee and infuse funds for the rollout. The company would evaluate tech options for the same.

Unlisted Infotel Broadband Services, which has over five lakh subscribers, is the only firm to win the broadband spectrum in all 22 zones in an auction that ended on Friday. The firm is paying Rs 12,848 crore (USD 2.7 billion) for the spectrum.

NIFTY VALUES as on 10/06/2010

2010-06-11T13:21:00.003+05:30

NIFTY VALUES as on 10/06/2010

Index	Open	High	Low	Close
CASH	4999.60	5085.20	4997.60	5078.60
NIFTY-JUN	5008.20	5093.50	5005.00	5086.10
MINIFTY-JUN	5010.00	5093.00	4996.20	5085.50

EMA VALUES

Index	3 EMA	9 EMA	13 EMA	21 EMA	34 EMA	5 EMA	10 EMA	20 EMA	30 EMA	50 EMA	100 EMA	200 EMA
CASH	5046.07	5036.98	5035.94	5047.53	5072.38	5042.23	5036.22	5045.63	5065.33	5089.63	5075.12	4913.18
NIFTY-JUN	5042.12	5024.58	5022.76	5035.07	5062.65	5033.58	5023.38	5032.72	5054.64	5082.55	5072.68	4914.17
MINIFTY-JUN	5041.92	5024.86	5023.15	5035.49	5063.02	5033.58	5023.70	5033.14	5055.03	5082.18	5072.86	4917.89

Fibonacci Retracement Level

Direct Retracements : 61.8% 50% 38.2% 23.6% and Targets are T1, T2 and T3

When market direction changes opposite: The Reverse are R 23.6% R 38.2% R 50% R 61.8% and Reverse Targets are : R T1 R T2 RT3

Scrip	23.6	38.2	50.0	61.8	T1	T2	T3	R 23.6	R 50	R 38.2	R 61.8	R T1	RT2	R T3
CASH	5064.53	5051.74	5041.40	5031.06	5105.87	5139.34	5193.47	5051.74	5041.40	5031.06	5018.27	4976.93	4943.46	4889.33
NIFTY-JUN	5072.61	5059.69	5049.25	5038.81	5114.39	5148.19	5202.89	5059.69	5049.25	5038.81	5025.89	4984.11	4950.31	4895.61
MINIFTY-JUN	5070.16	5056.02	5044.60	5033.18	5115.84	5152.82	5212.64	5056.02	5044.60	5033.18	5019.04	4973.36	4936.38	4876.56

Classic Pivot Values

Index	R4	R4M	R3	R3M	R2	R2M	R1	R1M	PP	S1M	S1	S2M	S2	S3M	S3	S4M	S4
CASH	5316.60	5272.80	5229.00	5185.20	5141.40	5125.70	5110.00	5081.90	5053.80	5038.10	5022.40	4994.30	4966.20	4922.40	4878.60	4834.80	4791.00
NIFTY-JUN	5327.03	5282.78	5238.53	5194.28	5150.03	5134.05	5118.07	5089.80	5061.53	5045.55	5029.57	5001.30	4973.03	4928.78	4884.53	4840.28	4796.03
MINIFTY-JUN	5348.63	5300.23	5251.83	5203.43	5155.03	5137.65	5120.27	5089.25	5058.23	5040.85	5023.47	4992.45	4961.43	4913.03	4864.63	4816.23	4767.83

nifty 25may2010

2010-05-25T08:43:00.003+05:30

nifty
.	S 2	4859.5
.	S 1	4901.7
.	Pivot	4965.65
.	R 1	5007.8
.	R 2	5071.75

Intraday Technical View With Important Levels


NIFTY Strong Sell			Resistance 2	4943.95
Ltp : 4943.95 ( 0.26 % )			Resistance 1	4943.95
Open	High	Low	Pivot Point	1647.98
4944.30	5029.55	4923.45	Support 1	4943.95
			Support 2	4943.95

Nikkei Slips Despite Buying Support

2010-05-24T17:54:00.000+05:30

By Colin Twiggs
May 24, 2010 6:00 a.m. ET (8:00 p.m. AET)

These extracts from my trading diary are for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as investment or trading advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .

Most markets display signs of short-term buying support, indicating a bear rally. This is likely to be a temporary pause rather than an end to the correction. South Korea and Japan, affected by heightened tensions with North Korea, failed, however, to join in — the Nikkei 225 signaling a primary down-trend.

Commodities & Resources Stocks

The Baltic Dry Index is advancing toward 4650. Rising demand for dry bulk shipping — primarily iron ore and coal — is at odds with the down-turn in Chinese stock markets, but the lag can last several months. Breakout above 4650 would confirm the primary up-trend, while reversal below 2900 would warn of a primary down-trend — if confirmed by the Baltic Panamax Index.

USA

Dow Jones Industrial Average

A strong close on Friday indicates a Dow rally to test 10700. Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) recovery above the declining trendline would confirm.

Read More....

S&P 500	Canada: TSX	UK: FTSE

Germany: DAX	India: Sensex	Japan: Nikkei 225

South Korea: KOSPI	China: Shanghai Composite	Australia: All Ordinaries

Choose always the way that seems the best, however rough it may be; custom will soon render it easy and agreeable.

VIX surges 20%, at 3-month high

2010-05-20T08:44:00.001+05:30

Turnover surged to Rs 1.36 lakh crore in the falling market. The Nifty futures closed weak at 4,922.9 against the spot close of 4,919.65. It added 5.11 lakh shares or 1.8 per cent in open interest. Option trading suggests negative bias as 5,000 and 5,100 calls added significant amount of open interest. However, accumulation in 4,800 and 4,900 puts indicates that these levels could provide some semblance of support.

India VIX

India VIX or volatility index, which has been rising since the start of May, has crossed the 30-point mark for the first time since February 23. It closed the day 32.04, gaining 20.72 per cent over the previous day's close of 26.54. This clearly reflects the nervousness and fear among traders. NSE's volatility index captures the expected near term movement — upside or downside — of the underlying index over the near term.

According to NSE, “India VIX is a volatility index based on the Nifty 50 Index option prices. From the best bid-ask prices of Nifty 50 options contracts, a volatility figure (%) is calculated which indicates the expected market volatility over the next 30 calendar days.”

The fear gauge, as famously known as, touched a high of 92.53 on November 14, 2008, when the bear market was at its peak.

Stock futures

Tata Motors futures added fresh short positions. It tumbled eight per cent to Rs 717.1 against the spot close of Rs 709.45 and added 6.46 lakh shares or six per cent in open interest.

Similarly, ICICI Bank futures also added fresh short position. It closed in discount at Rs 887.25 with respect to the spot close of Rs 830 and added 8.33 lakh shares or 6.5 per cent in open interest.

Unwinding of long position was seen on Reliance Industries, SBI, Hindalco and DLF.

RNRL and Federal Bank, which finished on firm note, also saw unwinding of longs.

However, Hero Honda futures added fresh longs.

FII activity

Though FIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 1,122.37 crore, thanks to their heavy buying in index options (Rs 2,668.49 crore), they offloaded Rs 1,555.15-crore worth index futures.

SEBI probing trading pattern in RPL shares in Nov 2007: Govt

2010-04-20T08:35:00.001+05:30

Market regulator SEBI is conducting an investigation into trading pattern in the shares of Reliance Petroleum during November 1-29, 2007, to probe insider trading charges, Parliament was informed on Monday.

"As per information received from SEBI, investigation is being conducted in the trading pattern in the scrips of Reliance Petroleum Ltd (RPL), for the period November 1, 2007, to November 29, 2007, to identify possible violations under SEBI Regulations...," Corporate Affairs Minister Salaman Khurshid told the Rajya Sabha in a written reply.

Khurshid was replying to a query by former Samajwadi Party leader Amar Singh.

Singh had asked whether it is a fact that the investigation carried out by SEBI confirms that there had been insider trading activities by Reliance Industries and its officials on the shares of RPL.

PRE - MARKET CALLS

1. Nifty Fut >> Closed at 5204.05

Buy above 5222 > Target 1 - 5232 > Target 2 - 5239 > Target 3 - 5244 > Target 4 - 5258
Sell below 5187 <> Target 4 - 5140

2. HDFC LTD >> Closed at 2686.9

Buy above 2713 > Target 1 - 2725 > Target 2 - 2740 > Target 3 - 2765
Sell below 2660 <>

3. Reliance >> Closed at 1060.85

Buy above 1069 > Target 1 - 1076 > Target 2 - 1084 > Target 3 - 1090
Sell below 2660 <>

4. Educomp >> Closed at 701.5

Buy above 711 > Target 1 - 714 > Target 2 - 720 > Target 3 - 730
Sell below 692 <>

5. SBIN >> Closed at 2030

Buy above 2039 > Target 1 - 2045 > Target 2 - 2053 > Target 3 - 2060
Sell below 2021 <>

6. LT >> Closed at 1574.55

Buy above 1585 > Target 1 - 1589 > Target 2 - 1595 > Target 3 - 1604
Sell below 1565 <>

7. Ster >> Closed at 812

Buy above 819 > Target 1 - 827 > Target 2 - 833 > Target 3 - 840
Sell below 805 <>

8. Tata Power >> Closed at 1312

Buy above 1318 > Target 1 - 1325 > Target 2 - 1335 > Target 3 - 1341
Sell below 1306 <>

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 04112009

2009-11-04T09:15:00.006+05:30

NSE India : S&P CNX Nifty - Daily Market Report for: Wednesday (November 04, 2009)

Nifty drops below major support level

Review of the Previous day:

The Nifty fell substantially on Tuesday (November 03, 2009) a net 147.80 points (3.14%) and closed at 4564 point level. The market opened down then turned up and continued so until 11:58 hours when it reached its day high at 4729 points. Then it fell and turned into a range bound movement until closing near the day low. The Nifty witnessed an intraday fluctuation of 191 points. Sentiment was extremely bearish and amongst the 50 Nifty stocks, 46 were losers, while just 4 gained. The Nifty dropped below the 4600 points level for the first time since September 3, 2009. All the sectoral indices closed in the red. Heavy selling was witnessed in realty, metal, technology, capital goods, power and select telecom stocks.

Technical Analysis:

Volume:

Volume (Qty shares) decreased 18.51%. This change is substantial but indicates a moderate participation by investors.

Market Breadth:

Overall Market Breadth on the NSE was negative. Amongst all the traded stocks, 168 were gainers, 1122 were losers and 16 remained unchanged.

Slow Stochastic Indicator:

The Slow Stochastic Oscillator is in the over-sold zone.

The Slow K line in the Stochastic Oscillator is below the slow D line (negative if it continues).

RSI Indicator:

The RSI fell and crossed below the 30 level and is now declining (negative if it continues).

MACD Indicator:

The MACD is below zero and is declining (negative if it continues). It is below its 9-day Average (negative).

ADX Indicator & DI Lines:

The +DI line is below the –DI line and both lines are diverging (negative if it continues).

The ADX is rising while the Market Index is falling, which indicates that the present down trend is increasing in strength.

Moving Averages (Trend Indicators)

The index:

Is below its 5-day average (at 4739) Negative.

Is below its 15-day average (at 4959) Negative.

Is below its 25-day average (at 4979) Negative.

Is above its 200-day average (at 3944) Positive.

Overall Market Strength/Weakness:

The indicators and oscillators discussed here are indicating a weak market with a negative bias.

Support Levels:

For short-term traders the immediate main support at 4672 marked as S1 (blue line above the Index) was crossed below yesterday.

The next support is at 4394 marked as S2 (blue line below the Index).

Resistance Levels:

The immediate main resistance is at 5193 marked as R1 (red line above the Index).

The next resistance is at 5580 marked as R2 (red line above the Index).

Pivot Point Analysis:

For intra-day traders the support and resistance levels are calculated according to the pivot point theory and are:

Pivot point = 4611 (This is the level where the trend is likely to change during intra-day).

Support (1) = 4492.

Support (2) = 4419.

Resistance (1) = 4683.

Resistance (2) = 4802.

Outlook for Today:

On Japanese candlestick patterns the index after having formed a small black body candle with a long upper tail has formed a long black body candle. The body of this candle is below and outside the body of the previous black body candle. This is negative.

Further, the index is below its 5, 15 and 25 day’s moving averages and all the three averages are negatively trended. Moreover, the velocity parameters are also negatively trended. The index has also dropped below a major support level at the 4672 point's level. All these indicate the possibility of a further decline unfolding.

Investors are advised to avoid buying at current levels.

Incidentally, since, October 23rd this column had been advising investors to “Avoid Buying”, as we were anticipating a decline. That assessment has proved accurate as the Nifty has lost 424 points since then.

Work with strict stop losses on all positions.

Daily research report 28 oct 2009

2009-10-28T09:36:00.002+05:30

Daily research report
Eagle eye 28/10/2009
ICICI DAILY CALLS

top gainer and looser

2009-10-28T09:34:00.000+05:30

top gainer and looser

post session commentary

2009-07-20T17:21:00.001+05:30

market rose for the second straight session to close with phenomenal gains at the start of new week tracking firm cues from the markets all over the world. . BSE Sensex ended above 15,100 level and NSE Nifty closed around 4,500 mark.

From the sectoral front, all indices ended in green barring FMCG stocks. Apart from that, most of buying was witnessed in IT, Realty, Tech, Bank, Oil & Gas, Pharma, Metal and Capital Goods stocks. BSE Mid Caps and Small Caps stocks also remained in limelight during the trading.

Among the Sensex pack 23 stocks ended in green territory and 7 in red. The market breadth indicating the overall health of the market remained positive as 1837 stocks closed in green while 832 stocks closed in red and 72 stocks remained unchanged in BSE.

The BSE Sensex closed higher by 446.09 points or (3.03%) at 15,191.01 and NSE Nifty ended up by 127.30 points or (2.91%) at 4,502.25. BSE Mid Caps and Small Caps closed with gains of 129.50 and 142.97 points at 5,235.09 and 5,823.87 respectively. The BSE Sensex touched intraday high of 15,209.36 and intraday low of 14,854.17.

Gainers from the BSE Sensex pack are TCS Ltd (15.34%), Wipro Ltd (7.14%), ICICI Bank (7.01%), Infosys Tech (5.66%), DLF Ltd (5.38%), Hindalco (5.35%), Reliance (5.03%), JP Associates (4.82%), ACC Ltd (4.22%), Sterlite Industries (3.80%), Tata Motors (3.78%), SBI (2.78%), L&T Ltd (2.69%) and Bharti Airtel (2.62%).

Losers from the BSE Sensex pack are ITC Ltd (1.98%), Reliance Infra (1.23%), Rcom (1.15%), Tata Steel (0.42%) and HDFC (0.34%).

On the global markets front the Asian markets that opened before the Indian market, ended higher. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index advanced strongly to 10-month high, on indications of recovery and better outlook of company’s earnings in US and China. Shanghai Composite, Hang Seng, Straits Times and Seoul Composite ended up by 77.18, 696.71, 24.78 and 38.41 points at 3,266.92, 19,502.37, 2,456.15 and 1,478.51 respectively. Meanwhile, Nikkei 225 was closed for holiday

European markets, which opened after the Indian market, are trading in green. In Frankfurt the DAX index is trading up by 74.50 points at 5,052.90 and in London FTSE 100 is trading higher by 67.57 points at 4,456.32.

The BSE IT closed outperformed the benchmark indices and higher by (7.26%) or 254.33 points at 3,759.61 on better-than-expected results from TCS. Gainers are TCS Ltd (15.34%), Tech Mahindra (9.21%), HCL Tech (8.39%), Wipro Ltd (7.14%) and Mphasis Ltd (6.90%).

The BSE Realty index increased by (4.91%) or 164.25 points to close at 3,511.35. Main gainers are Unitech Ltd (7.80%), Sobha Dev (6.58%), Ackruti (6.26%), Parsvnath (5.71%) and DLF Ltd (5.38%).

The BSE Teck ended up by (4.78%) or 129.61 points at 2,841.32. IOL Netcom (18.66%), Deccan Chr (15.47%), TCS Ltd (15.34%), Tech Mahindra (9.21%) and HCL Tech (8.39%) ended in green territory.

The BSE Bank index advanced by (4.37%) or 355.14 points at 8,487.30 after the Finance Minister said last week that the government is committed to financial sector reforms. Scrips that gained are Allahabad Bank (9.25%), Indus Ind Bank (8.40%), Bank of India (6.48%), Yes Bank (6.41%) and Oriental Bank (6.23%).

The BSE Oil & Gas stocks surged (3.66%) or 336.29 points to close at 9,531.09. Major gainers are Aban Offshore (8.43%), Cairn Ind (6.05%), Reliance (5.03%), Reliance Pet (4.68%) and Essar Oil (2.19%).

The BSE Metal index gained (2.12%) or 336.14 points at 11,369.64. Gujarat NRE C (17%), Sesa Goa Ltd (8.41%), Hindustan Zind (8.13%), Hindalco (5.05%) and Jai corp Ltd (4.99%) ended in positive territory.

The BSE FMCG index dropped by (0.49%) or 12.28 points at 2,847.58. Losers are ITC Ltd (1.98%) and HUL (0.19%).

TCS Ltd spurted 15.34% to Rs. 508.10 after net profit rose 15.27% to Rs 1276.44 crore on 0.12% decline in sales to Rs 5609.60 crore in Q1 June 2009 over Q4 March 2009.

Ranbaxy Laboratories gained 2.61%. The Company has received final approval in Canada to manufacture and market Ran-Amlodipine Tablets, 5 & 10 mg (Amlodipine Besylate Tablets) from Health Canada, Therapeutic Products Directorate (TPD).

HDFC Bank advanced by 2.44%. The bank today slashed the benchmark prime lending rate by 25 basis points to 15.75% per annum with effect from July 20, HDFC Bank said on its website. The cut in lending rate follows the reduction in the fixed deposits rate effective from May 18.

Time Technoplast Ltdd increased by 3.77%. The company announces to set up its manufacturing operations in Tianjin Region in China and has entered into the Agreement with local Chinese Government earlier this week for necessary land for the Project on long lease basis.

Flawless Diamond went up by 5.76%. The company has received two exports Order worth Rs. 320 Million INR for its diamond and branded and non Branded Diamond designer Jewellery.

Nagarjuna Construction Company Ltd gained 4.17%. The company has secured three new orders aggregating Rs. 776 crores.

Alstom Projects India Ltd closed higher by 5.39%. The company has been awarded a contract worth Rs 373 crores by Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd for supply of Boiler components for 2 X 800 MW Supercritical Coal Fired Power Plant at Krishnapatnam, Nellore Dist in Andra Pradesh.

Infrastructure Development Finance Company Ltd (IDFC) ended up by 1.68%. The company has posted a net profit of Rs 2434.990 mn for the quarter ended June 30, 2009 as compared to Rs 2047.331 mn for the quarter ended June 30, 2008. Total Income has increased from Rs 8115.338 mn for the quarter ended June 30, 2008 to Rs 8778.873 mn for the quarter ended June 30, 2009.

Share buybacks may point to ‘bottoms’ being hit

2008-06-22T07:00:00.002+05:30

ven as investors wait for clear signs of the elusive ‘bottom’ to the benchmark Sensex, select mid- and small-cap companies seem to think that their stock prices have reached their bottom!Many companies announced share buyback plans, as shares are now dime a dozen. The BSE benchmark indices for mid- and small-cap companies have given negative returns of 35-40 per cent during the year-to-date period.
Cheap value

Share prices of most companies that have announced intentions to buy back are trading 40-50 per cent off their highs, hit during the October 2007-January 2008 period. Companies probably feel that the time is ripe to buyback outstanding shares. These buybacks, when accomplished, will lead to the company reducing the number of shares on the market and consequently increase the earnings per share by a margin.

Easy pickings

Companies including Gujarat Fluorochemicals, Great Offshore and JB Chemicals have announced that they are either planning to buy or will be actually buying outstanding shares during this week. Some large cap companies have also embarked on buyback programmes. While Hindustan Unilever recently concluded a buyback, routed through the open market, Reliance Energy (REL) and Madras Cements have also announced buybacks. REL has kicked off its buyback, mopping up Rs 84 crore worth of shares in 3 days (10 per cent of the buyback amount). Madras Cements has completed over 96 per cent of its total buyback offer, amounting to Rs 64 crore, that began on February 18.

Fall stemmed

For shareholders of companies, the mere announcement of a buy back has meant a temporary arrest in the fall of the stock prices. Share prices of Gujarat Fluorochemicals have remained neutral while those of Great Offshore, JB Pharmaceuticals and Prithvi Infosolutions have gained from the day of such announcements.

However, the same logic hasn’t worked for large caps. The stock of Reliance Energy has suffered 15 per cent loss from the announcement date i.e. February 26. Prospective investors in the company do not seem to share the management’s view of the buy back being “a strong signal to the capital markets on the perceived under-valuation” of the company’s share price. REL’s current market price hovers around its 2008 lows.

The stock of IT major Patni Computers, yet to embark on its Rs 237 crore buyback programme, has also lost around 9 per cent, in line with its sector’s performance. On the other hand, Madras Cements, which bore the brunt of the mini crashes in February, is down only 7 per cent from the announcement date even as Sensex has fallen more than 11 per cent during the same period.

PM wants to quit over nuclear deal

2008-06-20T15:12:00.000+05:30

Congress sources told rediff.com late on Thursday night that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is putting the maximum pressure possible on Congress party president Sonia Gandhi
to go ahead with the India-US nuclear deal.

The tussle between Dr Singh and some party leaders, who do not want an early general election provoked by the withdrawal of Left support, is on and far from over, the Congress sources added.

Dr Singh would like to resign as prime minister if the Congress party does not back him on the deal. However, negotiations between Dr Singh and the party continue and the final verdict is not out yet.

The prime minister is likely to continue pressurising the Congress leadership before the next United Progressive Alliance-Left parties meeting on the nuclear deal on June 25.

Dr Singh will not have much to lose if he insists on an exit from power because his four-year tenure has ensured his place in history. The final year in power will be the most difficult with international oil prices likely to cross $150 per barrel.

Another factor behind the current political drama in New Delhi over the nuclear deal is a powerful lobby's belief that a strategic partnership with the United States is a win-win situation for India and the US. Dr Singh's supporters think it is time "the Congress calls the bluff of the Left parties" and goes ahead with the nuclear deal.

But it seems difficult for Dr Singh to garner his own party's support for the deal. Notwithstanding the public stand of UPA allies like Rashtriya Janata Dal leader Lalu Prasad, Nationalist Congress President Sharad Pawar and Dravida Munnetra Kazagham supremo M Karunanidhi supporting the deal, the Congress is well aware that these allies do not want an early election, and certainly not in November. External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee, the mediator between the Congress, the Left parties and its allies, briefed Dr Singh on the issue today.

Dr Singh cancelled all his appointments for Thursday, June 19. An official statement said the prime minister is unwell and running a viral fever.

The prime minister is understandably anguished because it will be embarrassing for him to travel to Tokyo next month for the G-8 summit -- where he will meet US President George W Bush -- after suffering a domestic political defeat on a diplomatic issue of great importance. "The prime minister," a reliable Congress source said, "wants to save his prestige in an international forum."

power of charts 16 june2008

2008-06-17T14:50:00.000+05:30

Last week nifty lost2.38 % and made new low of 4369.Last week nifty made 2-3 attempt intraday basic broking trendline but managed to closed above bull are still supporting on lower band .For coming week crossing above 4573 that break downward channel and we can see upmove 4739 zone .on weekly basic we had made hammer if tomorrow gap up opening on nifty and sustain it can test 4730-4758 . If it close below 4503 we can test 4443 – 4370 levels closing above 4639 it can touch 4700-4761 for this week key level 4503

Last week nifty lost2.38 % and made new low of 4369.Last week nifty made 2-3 attempt intraday basic broking trendline but managed to closed above bull are still supporting on lower band .For coming week crossing above 4573 that break downward channel and we can see upmove 4739 zone .on weekly basic we had made hammer if tomorrow gap up opening on nifty and sustain it can test 4730-4758 . If it close below 4503 we can test 4443 – 4370 levels closing above 4639 it can touch 4700-4761 for this week key level 4503

weekly still we are in range bound 4365 lower levels and 4950 upper strong resistances levels .closing below 4448 test of 4265 – 4030 .