Pacesetter Picks Sports Investors

NO, SPORTS BOOKS DID NOT GET KILLED DURING THE NFL SEASON

2013-01-04T11:08:00.001-06:00

race & sports book (Photo credit: fictures)

It happens every season. One Sunday, favorites will dominate the card. And, like clockwork, media reports will surface detailing how sports books “got killed” while gamblers cashed winner after winner.

But here’s the deal: Nevada sports books haven’t had a losing football season, ever. Period.

The worst year Nevada books had handling football bets was 1992. They made $19.8M which was 2.69% of the $735M bet on football in Nevada books that year. Since then, Nevada books have never made less than $30M in any year handling football bets.

Their best year was 2006 when bettors were particularly terrible and lost 8.02% of the $1.13 billion they bet on football games (NFL and NCAA), providing sports books with gross revenue of $91.1M from football betting. That led to the most profitable year ever for Nevada sports books as they made $288M.

Now, the LA Times published a story on how bad sports books are faring during this NFL season. From the article:

The result is what one Las Vegas sports bookmaker called a “staggering” financial hit from the NFL regular season, as bettors handed Nevada sports books their worst year in memory.
Did the article cite any actual numbers? Nope. So we will. And these figures are directly from the Nevada Gaming Commission, in case you’re curious.

Through the first 10 months of 2012, Nevada sports books have handled $1.28 billion in wagers – a record amount. And books have ‘won’ $96.8M. During the first 10 months of 2011, books ‘won’ only $37.4M so this year’s first 10 months represent a 158% growth rate over 2011.

More specifically, sports books won $44M on football bets in the quarter ending October 31, 2012. Yes, you read that correctly. The LA Times has a story about how sports books are getting killed when, in fact, sports books won more money in football bets during August, September and October than they won in all sports combined during the entire 2011 calendar year.

The LA Times also points out that books are getting “killed” because favorites are covering the spread. Well, underdogs covered 52% of the games during this NFL season.

Unfortunately, Deadspin has parroted this LA Times story without actually adding any data or refuting any of the inaccurate assessments. And Deadspin even managed to add this stunningly inaccurate zinger:

Occasionally sportsbooks will shift lines based on lopsided action, but they do their damnedest to avoid it.
So, as you read more and more of these articles, remember reality: Nevada sports books don’t lose money because bettors are winning too much. It doesn’t happen.

Greyhound Grading System & A Live Race

2012-11-30T22:53:00.001-06:00

Confused by the grading system?
Well you shouldn't be…
as a matter of fact it’s really simple.
There are six grades of greyhounds indicated by A, B, C, D, J and M (Maiden).
The winner of any race is advanced one grade until reaching A.
If a greyhound finishes fourth or worse in three consecutive official starts in the same grade OR fails to earn more
than one 3rd in four consecutive official starts in the same grade, that greyhound shall be lowered one grade.
(Exceptions in Grades D and J)
GRADE “J” FACTS
• Grade “J” is for greyhounds 30 months of age or younger.
• When a greyhound wins a Grade “M” race, it will advance to Grade “J”.
• When a greyhound wins a Grade “J” race, it will advance to Grade “D”, then to “C”, “B” and “A”.
• Greyhounds 30 months of age or younger who drop from Grade “D” will go to Grade “J”.
• Greyhounds who turn 31 months of age while in Grade “J” will be raised to Grade “D” and will be denoted in
the racing program with a (J).
• Grade “M” greyhounds 25 months of age or older will automatically be raised to Grade “J”, and will be labled in
the program with a (M).
GRADE OFF RULES
• Any greyhound who fails to finish at least fourth in eight consecutive official Grade “J” or Grade “M” starts shall
grade off.
• Any greyhound who fails to finish at least fourth in six consecutive official Grade “D” starts shall grade off,
unless the greyhound is young enough to compete in “J”.
Now I will introduce you to Racing & Mutuel Terms. Some will be similar to horse betting terms but I will go in depth with greyhounds because,they are much more exciting and hopefully after reading this information you will gain quick understanding and get ready to have some low cost fun with a chance of course to win some money.

Across the Board: A win, place and show wager on a particular greyhound.

Advance wagering: Wagers that are accepted on a race later during a performance or on a future performance.

AGC: American Greyhound Council Inc., a non-profit group jointly supported by American Greyhound Track Operators Association members and National Greyhound Association members, the purpose of which is to provide for the betterment of the welfare of racing greyhounds and the greyhound industry.

AGTOA: American Greyhound Track Operators Association, a non-profit corporation comprised of owners and operators of greyhound race tracks.

All-America Team: The eight top racing greyhounds selected each year by American Greyhound Track Operators Association.

Backstretch: A straightaway on the far side of the race track.

Bertillon Card: A greyhound's identification card that lists 56 physical identifying points for every registered racing greyhound.

Blanket: A covering for a greyhound bearing a number and color corresponding to its post position.

Box: The post position the greyhound will be racing from or the starting box itself. Also describes a wager involving the inclusion of a combination of greyhounds in a race.

Breeder: The individual who is the owner or lessee of his or her dam at the time of whelping.

Brindle: A streaky combination of colors, usually including a predominance of brown or tan.

Calls: The position of each greyhound at specific points around the track during a race.

Career record: A series of five numbers indicating, in order, a greyhound's total number of starts, followed by first place, second place, third place and fourth-place finishes. Often preceded by an abbreviation showing the track at which the starts were recorded.

Chart: A record of each race showing finish, calls, odds and comments describing each racer's performance.

Chartwriter: The person who compiles the charts and writes the comments on each greyhound's performance during a race.

Class: The grade of a race or a greyhound.

Collided: A comment used by the chartwriter to designate major contact between two or more dogs during a race.

Commingled pools: Money wagered at one track which goes into and mixes with wagering pool at another.

Daily Double: A wagering term describing the selection of the first place finishers on consecutive designated races. Dam: The mother of a greyhound.

Dead Heat: An exact tie between two or more greyhounds in a single race.

Doubleheader: Two race performances in the same day.

Draw: A random process by which each greyhound's starting position is determined.

Escape turn: The turn or curve at which the mechanical lure disappears after the race is over.

Fast track: A firm track on which the greyhound can achieve its best speed.

Flashy Sir Award: Given each year to the nation's top distance (3-8 mile) greyhound by the Greyhound Review ; named for an outstanding distance greyhound of the mid-1940's, now a Hall of Fame member.

Forced out: A chartwriter's term describing an instance of a greyhound being crowded to the outside by one or more opponents.

Grading system: Method of assuring greyhounds compete against racers of similar caliber; grades are assigned according to performance, with the top grade being "A". Some tracks use a grade AA.

Greyhound Hall of Fame: A museum and shrine to the greats of the sport. Located in Abilene, Kan.

Infield: Area surrounded by the oval track.

In the money: A first, second or third-place finish.

Interference: Intentional and unusual physical contact which obstructs or impedes the running of another greyhound as determined by the judges. After being called for interference, a greyhound must run in two schooling (non-wagering) races before racing in an official race.

ISW: Interstate Wagering. Wagering which takes place between tracks located across state lines.

ITW: Intertrack Wagering. Wagering between tracks located within the same state.

Judge: A racing official responsible for making decisions concerning photo finish results, eligibility and other racing matters.

Kennel: A business that cares for and races greyhounds under contract with one or more tracks.

Leadout: A handler, employed by the track, whose job includes parading racers in front of the public and placing them in the starting box before a race.

Length: The margin equal to the length of one greyhound. Used to denote how far ahead or behind each greyhound is during or after a race. Measuring speed, each length is computed to represent about 7/100ths of a second.

Lure: A mechanical device attached to an arm and electrically driven around the racing oval.

Lure operator: The person responsible for keeping the lure a uniform distance ahead of the greyhounds during a race.

Maiden: Any greyhound that has not won an official race and is less than 2 years old.

Matinee: A program of racing held during the afternoon hours.

Mutuel Handle: The amount of money wagered.

Muzzle: A wire, leather or plastic device, with a white tip, which is fitted over th greyhound's mouth and jaws and used to aid in photo finishes.

NGA: National Greyhound Association, made up of greyhound owners, breeders and trainers; recognized as a registry for racing greyhounds in the United States.

Nose: The slimmest margin of victory.

O.P. Smith: Owen Patrick Smith, inventor of a revolutionary mechanical lure, circa 1912, that could travel around a circular track; considered the "Father" of American greyhound racing.

Paddock: The area of lockout kennels, scales and inspection area.

Pari-Mutuel: Betting among ourselves. Type of wagering system at greyhound, thoroughbred, harness and jai alai facilities.

Place: A wagering term describing the greyhound finishing second in a race.

Post: A greyhound's post position or starting box number.

Post parade: The parading of the greyhounds before the race after they leave the paddock area. It includes the blanket and muzzle inspection.

Post Time: The starting time of the race.

Program: A printed guide to the day's races, including details such as the specifications and grades of individual races, post positions, past performances, charts, handicapper's selections, overnight entries, track records and other racing statistics.

Quiniela: A wagering term describing the two greyhounds finishing first and second in either order.

Racing Commission: A state or county regulatory agency that oversees all aspects of greyhound racing.

Racing Secretary: The track official whose major functions include determining how many races of each grade are to be run over each distance for any given performance and conducting the random draw for post position.

Rural Rube Award: Given each year to the nation's to sprint (5/16ths mile) greyhound by the Greyhound Review ; named for an outstanding sprinter of th late 1930's, now in the Hall of Fame.

Schooling Race: An unofficial training or qualifying race with no wagering allowed.

Scratch: Withdrawal of a greyhound from a race.

Separate Pools: Money wagered on a race at another track which is totally apart from the pool at the other track.

Show: A wagering term describing the greyhound finishing third in a race.

Sire: The father of a greyhound.

Sprint: A race run over five-sixteenths of a mile or shorter.

Stakes Race: A championship race or one for a purse larger than those offered for other feature races.

Starter: A greyhound becomes a starter for the race when the doors of the starting box open.

Superfecta: A wagering term describing the first four greyhounds crossing the finish line in a race.

Takeout: The money taken from the betting pool to be divided among the track, the state and the operators.

Tattoos: An identification number placed inside the ear of a registered racing greyhound.

Totalisator machine: A computerized system that records amounts wagered, prints tickets for bettors and calculates odds.

Tote board: A board which displays odds and payoffs.

Trainer: A kennel employee whose responsibility is preparing greyhounds for racing and caring for them at all times.

Trifecta: A wagering term describing the first three greyhounds crossing the finish line in exact order.

WGRF: World Greyhound Racing Federation, the worldwide promotion association for the sport.

Whelping: The act of birth.

Wheel: A wagering term describing the selection of a greyhound to win, place or show combined with every other greyhound in the race.

Win: A wagering term describing the first greyhound across the finish line.

Winner's circle: Where the winning greyhound proceeds following the race, often to participate in a ceremonial presentation.

Wire: The finish line for the race.

Please Click Here for Elite Greyhound Adoption

Wagering Handicapping Help for Greyhound Racing

2012-11-30T21:42:00.001-06:00

Greyhound Racing (Photo credit: Mamboman1)

Wagering Handicapping Help
If you want to win consistently, you should learn.
Here are the Factors to Look for to Give you The Winning Edge;
Palm Beach Kennel Club
Grade

In greyhound racing, the dogs actually grade themselves. When a greyhound begins its racingcareer, it is classified as a maiden, which means non-winner. If it wins, it advances to grade J. When it wins a grade J, it proceeds to D and so forth until it moves up the ladder to the top grade - grade A. A greyhound will also drop in grade during its career. If it fails to come in first, second or third in three starts, or better than two thirds in four starts, the greyhound falls down in grade.

When a greyhound wins and advances in grade, its chances of winning are lowered. Conversely, when a greyhound drops in grade, its chances of winning increase. Smart handicappers always consider a greyhound dropping in grade - it's a good bet.
Early Speed

An early speed greyhound is one that is consistently first, second or third at the first turn. In the program, you can tell the greyhound’s first turn position by looking at the chart and finding the column marked "1/8". Early speed greyhounds will finish in the money approximately 80% of the time. Most problems occur at the first turn when the greyhounds are going at full speed and are usually tightly bunched. So the greyhound that can break out of the box and reach the first turn in front, has a better chance of avoiding first turn problems. So look for early speed- it's ALWAYS a good bet.
Post Position

Post position is selected at random when the races are being drawn. Some greyhounds prefer to run on the inside of the track, while others run the outside and still others prefer mid-track. When the starting box opens, the greyhound will naturally run to the area of the track that it prefers. Thus, when a greyhound that likes the inside position draws an inside box, such as the 1,2 or 3, it is in what is said to be a "favorable post position." If that same greyhound drew an outside box - say the 7 or 8 - it is likely that once the box opens, the greyhound would cross the field attempting to reach the inside. Being in an "unfavorable" post position, it runs a high risk of bumping and colliding with other greyhound. It is a very simple way to gain an advantage,
My next post will show you the grading system. Its going to be shocking how simple it really is.

Horse Bets

2012-11-28T15:03:00.000-06:00

The Swifts Creek Cup at the Tambo Valley Picnic Races, 2006 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Wager Types

Horse Bets

Find information on horse betting, how to place a Win, Place, and Show bet. Racebook also provides information on Exotic wagers like, Daily Double, Quinella, Exacta, and Trifecta. We pay track odds on win place and show plus exotics with the most generous horse racing payout limits available on the web!.Metro Racebook offers horse racing clients a wide variety of horse racing exotics with the most generous horse racing payout limits available on the web! With more than 75 thoroughbred horse racing and harness horse racing tracks available for real-time horse racing betting every day!

Horse Bets Introduction:

The essence of betting on horse racing is betting odds. It's different from betting your neighbor that Tech will beat State in the big football game. There it is head-to-head. Kind of a 50-50 deal. If Tech beats State, you win. He loses. In horse racing, there are eight, 10, 12 horses in every race, and only one can win. To come out on top in this game, you have to cash winning bets when betting on horse racing at the right odds.

The betting on horse racing odds make up for the fact that none of us can pick all the winners. Odds for win bets on all the horses are posted all around the track. In addition, TV monitors show win-betting on horse racing odds PLUS possible exacta and daily double payoffs expressed in actual dollars and cents. The odds are constantly changing in reflection of the betting on horse racing, and are updated on the "tote board."

The "morning line" odds listed for each horse in the program are not actual betting on horse racing odds, but estimates made by the track handicapper of how the public will end up betting on horse racing . So it is often interesting to note a horse that is being bet to odds far different from his morning line. If he's way down, that's called an "underlay" , and might indicate "smart money"is being bet on the horse. A horse way up is called an "overlay" . If it's one you like, that horse could be an excellent buy in the big supermarket at odds. Try to be a smart odds shopper.

Basic wager types for betting on horse races

WIN: When you select a horse to win, you collect if your horse finishes first.

PLACE: You collect if your horse finishes first or second.

SHOW: You collect if your horse finishes first, second or third.

ACROSS THE BOARD : Betting across the board is simply making an equal win, place and show wager on one horse. "$2 across the board on number six" is the same as saying $2 to win, $2 to place and $2 to show on number 6 for a total of $6.

Other popular horse racing bets

Daily Double

This betting on horse racing exotic bet involves picking the winners of two races in a row. The Daily Double is usually contested on the first two races of the day and the last two races, although some tracks have daily double betting on horse racing throughout the day. The betting is straightforward. $2 is the minimum bet, and you must select the winners of both races on one ticket.

Quinella -- 1st and 2nd-place finishers.

For the Quinella, you have to pick (on one ticket) two horses to run first-second or second-first.

Exacta -- 1st and 2nd-place finishers.

For the Exacta, you have to pick (on one ticket) the exact order of official finish of the first two horses of a race. If you want No. 2 to win and No. 5 second, simply tell the clerk "$2 exacta, 2-5." Always give the numbers in the order you think your two horses will finish. Your total cost is $2. If 2 wins and 5 finishes third, you do not win. If 5 wins and 2 finishes second, you do not win. NOTE: This wager is also called "Perfecta" at some tracks.

Trifecta -- 1st, 2nd and 3rd-place finishers.

The Trifecta calls for you to pick the first three horses in exact order of official finish. The simplest form of this wager is the Straight Trifecta, which is a single combination of the first three finishers. The minimum bet for a Straight Trifecta is $2. To purchase, simply tell the clerk: "$2 Trifecta on 1-2-3." Trifectas qualify by each track's rules and regulations (refer to program). NOTE: This wager is also called the "Triple" at some tracks.

Horse Racing tips:

Bet only on horses you feel have a good chance of winning.

If you don't like a horse, don't bet on it.

Give preference to winners. Choose a horse that has won before.

Avoid betting on a horse that has just moved up in class.

Look for value odds as much as likely winners. If you keep looking for them, you will learn to spot them fairly quickly.

Look for a horse that has a fair chance of winning and is not overly backed. This is usually a good value bet in the long run. On odds of say, 10:1, you need to win once in ten attempts to break even. Anything more is net profit. Horses backed heavily by touting services and computer handicappers may win more often, but are usually poor value bets.

When the track is slow or heavy, give preference to fast starters. Slow, muddy and heavy track conditions usually favor the horse that takes an early lead.

A straight bet is simple, manageable and not too difficult to win. Play it but always weigh up the odds. Avoid favorites and long shots (outsiders) too. Be selective - don't bet on anything or everything.

When betting straight, consider betting to win and show, or each-way, if the odds are relatively high.

The Dangers of Over-betting and Over-Estimating your Edge

2012-11-18T20:08:00.000-06:00

Gambling (Photo credit: sincerelyhiten)

These graphs illustrate the long term power of using Kelly sizing to increase one's bankroll over time, and beg the question, 'if Kelly betting will lead to such incredible returns, then betting double or triple Kelly must lead to even higher returns!' Referred to as 'over betting,' this misguided notion is one of the reasons that so many +EV sports bettors go broke just like their square compatriots. It turns out that someone betting 1.5 Kelly has the same expected growth as someone betting 0.5 Kelly, but with tremendously wilder upswings and downswings, and much more risk. Betting 2 Kelly actually has the same expected return as not betting at all: exactly zero, and betting more than two Kelly has a negative long term expected growth even if you are making positive expected value bets, and your bankroll will eventually fall to zero! In conclusion, Kelly sizing is in fact, as has been stated several times, the point at which return is exactly optimal.

Another important point to consider is that the dangers of over-estimating and over-betting your edge are not restricted to Kelly Betting. Flat bettors or even bettors who gamble 'however much they feel like' on a given trip to the casino frequently over-estimate and over-bet as well. Generally, bettors this unsophisticated are over-betting no matter what they do; they have zero edge at best, and probably a negative edge expectation, and shouldn't even be betting in the first place. Yet, many advantageous cappers or bettors who buy my picks can unwittingly over-bet as well.

In addition to the dangers of over betting, the Kelly Criterion also has large swings compared to flat betting. For example, a given positive expectation wager that compounds at 10% per time unit will eventually double, and of course grow to infinity. However, since the swings with Kelly betting are so large, the initial bankroll actually has a 1/3 chance of being cut to half its initial value at some point before doubling. To an academic, this is immaterial, since they can keep their eyes on the long run expected growth. However, to investors who are often investing money for a shorter period of time and expecting immediate and consistent returns, this relatively high short term risk and volatility is unacceptable.

However, because variance is exponentially related to return, we find that cutting the bet size in half causes only a nominal reduction in expected growth, but square roots the variance. In other words, if we were to bet one half Kelly unit on our 10% per time unit (with full Kelly) proposition, we would grow our funds at a slightly slower rate of 7.5% per time unit while our risk/variance/volatility would be the square root of what it was previously. To use the previous example, we would now fall to 50% of our starting bankroll only 1/9 (rather than 1/3) of the time before doubling it - a much more tolerable level of risk for the average investor.

Betting one half Kelly unit instead of a full unit also helps prevent accidental over betting when we may have overestimated our edge, and we have already examined how destructive this can be. For example, if a bettor estimates his win percentage to be 58%, he would accordingly bet 11.8% (at 10:11) of his bankroll following full Kelly sizing. But, suppose that despite correctly picking a winner, the bettor had incorrectly assessed the real win percentage, and the side he picked would in fact be a winner only 55%, rather than 58% of the time. In this case, he should have bet only 5.5% of his bankroll, and since he overestimated his edge by 3% he actually over bet and wagered more than 2.1 Kelly. This will result in a negative expected growth despite the fact that the bet was still positive expected value, and would win 55% of the time. However, if the bettor instead followed a policy of betting ½ Kelly, overestimating win percentages is not nearly so dangerous. In this case, the win percentage miscalculation would have caused him to mistakenly bet twice the determined appropriate bet size… and he would have bet 1.0 Kelly instead of ½ Kelly, causing himself no harm whatsoever.

Full Kelly wagering is optimal when you know the odds exactly (as might a card counter who is aware of precisely which cards remain), but is too dangerous when positive expectation wagers are less certain. Bettors are well advised to halve or even third their bet sizes to cut down immensely on volatility while sacrificing relatively little expected growth.

Talk to any career bookie, and you will find a shocking truth: many (maybe even as high as 20% or 30%) sports bettors actually win over 50% of their games in the long run. However, their concepts of money management are so poor that almost all of them over bet wildly, driving their long term expectation to zero, and they all end up completely broke. The following anecdote, which could be any one of a million different bettors, illustrates the dangers of over betting:

"This guy Archie came into my book on the first week of September and bet about $1k on ten different NFL games. He ended up going 9-1, and turned his $10k into $18k. (n.b. we are ignoring vig for the sake of simple calculations) I knew he would be back though, and sure enough he was there the following week, betting $2k on nine different NFL games and totals. He got hot again, and went 7-2, and his $10k had now grown to $28k in just two weeks. I wasn't worried though, because the story is always the same with these guys. In week three, he came in with 7 more 'locks' and put $4k on each game, only to go 1-6, losing three of the games in the last minute. Frustrated with his bad luck, he put all of his remaining $8k on the Monday Night Under, which busted when the Broncos scored a meaningless touchdown in the final minute. Three weeks after he started, Archie was broke."

Archie is a prototypical gambler with absolutely no investment discipline. He started out with $10k, went 17-10 (63%) and ended up broke. Rampant over betting is a great way to empty your pockets while winning two thirds of your games. If Archie had just flat bet $500 per game the whole way through, he would've turned his $10k into $13.5k in three weeks. If he had bet 5% of his bankroll on each sequential game, he would have run his $10k up to $18.7k, and then slid in week 3 to finish at $13.7k, netting a $3.7k profit, albeit with some big swings. Does this story sound familiar? It should - it describes about 90% of the gamblers you'll find at any given time in a Las Vegas sportsbook.

Bayes' Theorem and Sports Betting Touts

2012-11-16T03:22:00.001-06:00

Sports betting (Photo credit: Marit & Toomas Hinnosaar)

A brief discussion of Bayesian probability is relevant to begin an examination of the claims of sports betting 'touts.' Bayes' theorem relates to the conditional probability and marginal probabilities of two given events, where both events have non-zero probabilities. In other words, it examines an outcome based on the known background distribution from whence that outcome arose.
The basic idea is perhaps most easily explained through this common example: A patient in Country X sees his doctor to determine whether he is suffering from disease Y. A preliminary test is administered, and the test comes up positive. The doctor administering the preliminary test already knows that 5% of the inhabitants of Country X suffer from disease Y. Through extensive research, the doctor also know that when the patient actually has the disease, the test will come up positive 100% of the time (there will never be a false negative), and when a patient does not have the disease, the test will erroneously come up positive 10% of the time (a false positive).
Given that the patient's test came up positive, what is the probability that he actually has the disease? Initial reactions are generally that the probability is high - after all, the test was positive, so therefore the patient will probably actually have the disease somewhere around 90% of the time! In actuality, this results-based logic falls apart when examined from a Bayesian perspective, and when we consider the background distribution.
Ninety five percent of inhabitants do not have the disease, but 10% of them get a false positive anyway. Only 5% of inhabitants actually do have the disease, and all of them come up positive. Thus, only about 1/3 of the total number of positive results are from people who actually suffer from the disease. When a population of 1000 people is tested, 50 will suffer from disease Y and will test positive, while the other 950 will be healthy. Yet 95 out of the other 950 will still be given a false positive, and thus 95 out of the 145 total positive tests will actually be false. We know that the patient took the test, and we know that the test was positive - but all that tells us is that the patient is a member of that group of 145 people whose tests were positive. Thus, it is not quite time to despair - there is still 65.5% chance that he is in fact not suffering from disease Y!
The patient in Country X was horrified to see a positive test result, because he assumed that it was almost certain (~90%) that he had the disease, while in reality the probability was only 34.5%. Many touts use this same false, results-oriented trickery to fool customers into thinking that they are beating the lines, when in fact they are just lucky.
Consider that if 5% of sports bettors can actually beat the lines in the long run, and 80% of those are winners over a 2 year period, and 95% of bettors are hacks who are just flipping coins , and 20% of them are winners over a 2 year period (due to variance), then this means that 82.6% of bettors who are winners over a 2 year period are actually hacks who are long term losers!
Thus we stumble upon the golden tout philosophy: there are so many hacks out there, that some portion of them are going to experience several standard deviations of variance, and will be winners over a period of several years, despite the fact that they are 'truly' long term losers - in practicality, that adds up to hundreds of touts who have built huge winning records through blind luck, and are selling their picks to an unwitting public. Yet despite their record, these Bayesian touts have at best a 50% win rate looking forward, if not worse.
An even simpler way to examine this is through Warren Buffet's famous quarter game: say all 300 million Americans paired up and flipped a quarter, with the winner keeping the loser's coin. The next day, the 150 million winners would pair up and flip, and again the winner would keep the loser's quarter. The survivors would repeat this for 22 days, at which point 71 players would be left, each having amassed a fortune of $1.04 million in quarters. The world would praise these 71 incredible flippers, laud them as geniuses of coin calling, and examine in minute detail what exactly it was that made them so good at calling heads or tails. No doubt dozens of books titled, "How I Became a Millionaire in Three Weeks doing nothing other than Flipping Quarters" would be published. This scenario seems laughably ridiculous, but this is almost exactly what sports betting touts who sell their picks to an unwitting public are doing! Touts base all of their results on past metrics which hold no predictive value, and disappear as soon as they have a bad season only to reappear with a new name and website when they run hot again.
So how can a smart investor figure out which touts are sharps with a positive expectation for future performance, and which are just members of a large crowd of losers who happened to hit a lucky streak? How can he tell which claims are significant, meaningful indications of future success, and which are nothing more than lucky hot streaks?
1. Justification for success. An analyst with extremely complex statistical metrics, such as my math model is more likely to be successful in the future than a gambler who won 30 out of 50 games, but can't offer a reason other than, "I'm the million dollar man, I just pick locks."
2. A very, very large sample size. Some touts sell their entire product based on a 15-0 hot streak, or winning 60 out of 100 games. Sample sizes this small are completely meaningless. If you flip 100 coins over and over, you'll get heads 60 or more times about 1 out of every 30 times, which is pretty frequent when you consider the number of touts there are trying to sell their picks based on tiny sample sizes.
On the other hand, my college football picks have gone 1132-843-42 (57.0%), my NFL picks have gone 217-169-9 (56.2%) and my basketball picks have gone 5328-444-226 (54.5%) over the last ten years. Now that is a meaningful sample size, and every statistical test, measured to the highest degree of certainty, would conclude that I am without question able to beat the spread a high percentage of the time. How many other handicappers have been consistently producing winners for ten years? Just one.
3. Clear statement of records. Many touts fudge their numbers by quoting ridiculously selective, meaningless statistics. Claims of, "90% winning percentage on Thursday night inter-conference games," or "undefeated on Monday nights in November," abound in the tout industry. Numbers such as these which are artificially created ex post facto are so ridiculous that any serious investor should quickly learn to ignore them.
I care about only one statistic: my overall record. Beyond that, I quote win rates which grow slightly higher when I assign more confidence (stars) to a pick. This is further evidence that my models predict outcomes better than Vegas lines; the further off I think a line is, the more likely my pick is to win.
Do not be fooled by the lucky few touts that emerge with hot streaks every year. There are so many thousands of touts spouting drivel that a few of them are bound to get lucky once in awhile. I have reasons to expect future success to match my past record, and I have been a consistent winner for 22 years.

How To Bet NASCAR

2012-11-02T20:40:00.000-05:00

nascar (Photo credit: rogerblake2)

Like it or not, NASCAR’s popularity has continued to grow ever since FOX and NBC took over the television broadcasting rights four years ago. This exposed many new markets to stock car racing, and the Nextel Cup Series is now second only to the NFL in terms of fan popularity. This recent surge of interest has also increased the popularity of NASCAR betting.
There are two main types of NASCAR wagers, including picking the outright winner and picking the winner of head-to-head driver matchups. A money-line is used in both situations and resembles the same format used in wagers on golf and tennis.
When picking the race winner, all drivers are plus (+) money, which means a bettor can pick four or five different drivers and still profit if one of them wins. Normally the favorite is at least 5-to-1 (+500) or higher, with many competitive drivers at 12-to-1 (+1200) or higher.
NASCAR has become more competitive than ever with at least 15-20 drivers having a chance to win each week. Last year, 31 different drivers had at least one Top-5 finish during the 2004 season with 13 different winners in 36 races.
Because of the great parity in the sport, it is not uncommon for a longshot to grab an occasional victory. In 2003, Joe Nemechek was 40-to-1 when he won at Richmond and he was 40-to-1 again last year in his Kansas Speedway win. Even a competitive driver like Elliott Sadler was 25-to-1 when he won at Texas in 2004.
Another popular type of wager is head-to-head driver match-ups. This wager involves only two drivers and the bettor must predict which driver will finish higher in the race. This is the preferred method used by many professional handicappers, as it allows them to focus on or against a specific driver, without having to worry about the other 42 cars in the field.
Once again, oddsmakers use a moneyline (just like baseball) and most match-ups are on a 20-cent line (-130 / +110 for example) all the way up to -200 / +170 where a larger split takes place. Head-to-head match-ups allow great flexibility for handicappers as they can either look to play on certain drivers or against certain drivers. The best betting situation occurs when a hot driver is pitted versus a cold driver in the same match-up.
The beauty of handicapping NASCAR lies in the intricacies of each individual track. There are 36 races at 22 different tracks over the course of the 2005 Nextel Cup season. Each track varies in distance, banking, surface, etc. The longest tracks are 2 1/2 mile super-speedways like Daytona and Talladega with race speeds nearing 190 mph, while the others are 1/2-mile short tracks like Martinsville and Bristol (or road courses like Infineon and Watkins Glen) where the race speeds are under 80 mph.
Certain drivers excel at super-speedways (Jeff Gordon, Dale Earnhardt, Jr, and Michael Waltrip have won 15 of the past 18 restrictor plate races) while other drivers excel at short tracks (Kurt Busch has won four of the past seven Bristol races). Past history is an important handicapping factor as certain drivers and teams consistently do well on specific types of tracks.
NASCAR is a team sport and it takes more than one individual to win the race. The driver is the star, but he must rely on his pit crew of six to eight members and his crew chief to prepare a winning car and then make the necessary adjustments as the race progresses. Current form is important as teams go through slumps during a long nine-month season, just like athletes and teams in any other sport.
Another important handicapping factor is practice. Each driver is allowed three practice sessions on the Friday and Saturday before the race. The first practice session usually takes place on Friday morning, followed by qualifying to determine the starting order. The next two practice sessions usually take place on Saturday morning, with the final practice known as “Happy Hour.”
The oddsmakers and media put too much emphasis on qualifying times, as the practice times are more relative to the overall race results. The first practice session is usually run in “qualifying trim” meaning the teams prepare the car to run fast for just two laps. Many changes are made to the shocks, brakes, oil, etc. which would not be optimal for actual race conditions.
The second and third practice sessions are usually run in “race trim” which more accurately simulates real racing conditions. These times provide an excellent gage into how a team will perform that weekend, including race day.
With all its details and numbers, NASCAR continues to grow in popularity each year. It is a competitive and balanced sport and this parity provides excellent opportunities for the smart sports bettor as many winning drivers have odds of at least 10-to-1 (+1000) or higher.
It is extremely important to shop around at various sportsbooks to obtain the highest odds on each driver you play. Some sportsbooks will post a driver at +600 while another sportsbook has him listed at +1200. This type of discrepancy is seen every weekend and by having multiple offshore sports accounts, a bettor is guaranteed the highest possible payout on every winning wager he or she makes.
The same holds true when playing head-to-head driver matchups. One sportsbook might have a driver at -130, while another has him at -115. Money saved is money earned and this is what separates a long-term professional winner from a recreational amateur.

BCS Championship Predictions

2012-11-01T13:30:00.000-05:00

Notre Dame Stadium (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

BCS Championship

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Kansas St. Wildcats

Projected line: Alabama -16

Kansas St. likely controls its own destiny against a very doable remaining schedule. The Wildcats started slow this past week against Texas Tech but eventually pulled away for another lopsided win. They have a stern test this week hosting Oklahoma St. before hitting the road for two games at TCU and Baylor. Alabama had no issues with Mississippi St. as it got warmed up for its big game at LSU. The Tide are 10-point road favorites there and they are showing they can cover anywhere, so making them more than a two-touchdown favorite against the Wildcats on a neutral field is legitimate.

Fiesta Bowl

Oklahoma Sooners vs. Boise St. Broncos

Projected line: Oklahoma -7

Despite losing to Notre Dame at home, the Sooners remain in the Fiesta Bowl. Besides Alabama, there are other four SEC teams ahead of Oklahoma but those teams have to go elsewhere and the Sooners will likely be the highest at-large team left. The Broncos are very well alive here as they have to finish ahead of at least one conference champion, which comes from an AQ conference and that could easily be the Big Ten or Big East. As long as it wins out, Boise St. will eventually end up in the top 16. This is a great rematch from the 2007 Fiesta Bowl and the Sooners will be around the same sized favorite here.

Orange Bowl

Louisville Cardinals vs. Florida St. Seminoles

Projected line: Florida St. -10

The Seminoles are coming off another blowout win and they remain on pace to take the ACC Atlantic. They play next Thursday at Virginia Tech, which is no easy task and close the season against Florida, so nothing is a guarantee. Louisville takes this spot now after Rutgers fell to Kent St. and while the Scarlet Knights are still undefeated in the conference, a loss like that shows they are not very good. As mentioned last week, the Big East Conference is the lowest ranked conference and it will not get much respect from the linesmakers no matter who is here.

Rose Bowl

Oregon Ducks vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers

Projected line: Oregon -15

Oregon is playing at a high level and will likely need help to get into the BCS Championship although its schedule gets stronger the rest of the way. The Ducks face the Trojans this coming week and Nebraska moved ahead of Michigan after defeating the Wolverines on Saturday night, so it is now the frontrunner to meet Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship. The Ducks look unstoppable and should they fall into the Rose Bowl, they will be big favorites not matter who they face.

Sugar Bowl

Georgia Bulldogs vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Projected line: Notre Dame -7

The Fighting Irish made a lot of people believers after their very impressive win over Oklahoma. The problem for Notre Dame is its remaining schedule as the last true test is against USC, which lost again this past weekend. It is looking more likely that Notre Dame can go undefeated and not play for a national title. Georgia moved back into the national championship picture following their big win over Florida. Playing in the Sugar Bowl could be determined by how bad the Bulldogs lose to Alabama in the SEC Championship. Notre Dame goes from underdog to favorite.

How to bet pro basketball

2012-03-07T01:55:00.001-06:00

Image via Wikipedia

It doesn’t matter that the NBA is the hardest sport to beat next to the NFL. Nor does it matter that NBA lines are extremely sharp, or that some of the players in the league are among the most detestable in all sports.

We’re still going to bet NBA. So let’s at least try to make some money from it. To accomplish this we need to be aware of certain harsh realities.

Basketball is an eight-month grind similar to baseball. That means riding hot streaks and dealing with cold streaks. Money management is as important as handicapping.

Bet a little more when winning, but don’t ever let yourself get too cocky. This is a sport that slaps you down to size real fast by nature of its randomness and garbage-type finishes that often decide the point spread winner. If you’re losing you need to scale down your action until you regain your rhythm.

For the NBA is a rhythm sport. The lines almost always seem accurate. So face it, you’re rarely going to get value. Sometimes you will, but it’s usually just during the first couple of weeks. If you refuse to play unless you get a great number, you’re going to be sitting out a lot.

So don’t be afraid to get involved. Now, I’m not saying be undisciplined. No matter how much you like a side, you have to pass if the line is too out of whack. Rare is the time when you really love a side and are able to also take a great number on the same game. You’ll get bit a few times, losing by a point or two, but in the long run you’ll make more money provided you handicap right and play the game even if the betting line isn’t entirely to your liking.

Some gamblers disagree, saying you should never play unless you’re getting the best number. That’s fine in theory, but hard to apply in the NBA since a large part of handicapping pro basketball is situations, injuries, matchups and your own subjective feel rather than power rankings, statistics and coaching.

Basketball is a hard sport to get rich on. I’ve beaten the NBA five of the past six years hitting between 54 and 58 percent. Perhaps that doesn’t sound spectacular, but it’s solid profit taking into account there are 30 teams playing 82 games followed by the postseason. I would dare call a liar anybody who claims to consistently hit better than 60 percent over the long run playing a lot of games each season.

Having the right feel in the NBA is huge. The key question, of course, is how to acquire the right feel? It’s developed through experience, watching the games, analyzing players, understanding situational aspects, reading pertinent up-to-date material and talking to sources if you’re lucky enough to have good ones. And in the end, it comes down to trusting your own instincts.

Unless your whole life has been devoted to handicapping NBA, you have to make certain concessions. For instance, I don’t spend a lot of time pouring over statistics and compiling power rankings. These are factored into the betting line anyways.

The oddsmakers at Las Vegas Sports Consultants - the company that supplies the betting numbers to most of the hotels in Nevada - use power rankings to make numbers as other linesmakers do. I do make overnight numbers and compare them. But the oddsmakers’ numbers are solid and need to be respected. There’s no reason to try to improve on their time-tested numbers.

Betting totals is something else altogether. There are individuals and betting syndicates who are extremely proficient in this area. Las Vegas bookmakers were plagued for many years by one especially sharp individual in this area.

Bookmakers adjust totals much faster than sides. It’s my experience gamblers are either very good or very bad at over/unders with most having no clue how to beat totals. Over/unders are hard to get involved with unless you thoroughly understand what you’re doing. It’s difficult for both oddsmakers and bettors, for instance, to accurately gauge a total when a fast-paced team matches up against a half-court opponent.

If a team is playing its fifth game in seven days you figure that team is at a huge disadvantage physically and mentally. That’s easy to handicap playing a side. But when betting a total, would you know if that’s an advantage (tired arms making for poor shooting percentage) or a disadvantage (too tired to play intense defense)?

For reasons like that I find sides much easier to handicap. The business aspect is what makes the NBA so much a crapshoot when handicapping. The players make so much money and have so many games that you’re not always assured of getting a top effort from them. That’s not a concern in college because players usually play hard all the time. The NBA is more a marathon with players pacing themselves, picking their spots.

It’s rare to find a team, for instance, playing well every game during a long road trip. The secret is to project when they’ll tank and when they’ll be on. Beating the NBA is difficult because you’re at the mercy of the different mood swings of various key players who can be just out of high school, have a ghetto background or have a name you can’t pronounce because they’re from somewhere halfway around the world.

Sometimes the point spread is decided in the final minute. Even though the outcome is evident, a point spread could be decided by a meaningless uncontested lay-up, an undefended jump shot or if the losing team decides to foul or not. It’s not nearly as bad as what occurs in college, when a hopelessly losing team keeps needlessly fouling, allowing the winner to cover a big spread and pushing the total over.

But often times the line is so solid that the game falls in the mix, where it could go either way from a point spread standpoint no matter how well or poorly you handicapped. I remember losing with an 8-point underdog a few years ago when the favorite had a 7-point lead with just seconds left and the ball. The underdog wasn’t going to foul, instead they started shaking hands and walking off the court.

Now when that happens, you can almost start counting your money because the winning team is just going to dribble out the last few seconds, especially when they were at half-court, as in this instance. However, in this particular case, the notoriously selfish J.R. Rider had the ball and sensing an easy way to pad his stats, made a mad dash for the open hoop dunking the ball with a second left. The announcers criticized Rider for being bush, as did other players, but the bottom line was the final score was a 9-point margin costing me a wager.

Always accept that a certain amount of games fall into the mix. The way to beat the NBA is to nail the games that don’t fall into the mix more often than not. Use proper money management and know how to take advantage of injury information.

Just because Chris Webber is out doesn’t necessarily mean the 76ers are a bad bet for that evening. It helps to know the players and backups so well you can correctly assess if the bookmaker made a correct line adjustment on an injury. Sometimes they over-adjust. I’ve played in Rotisserie leagues with deep rosters (12 teams composed of 15 players) for years to keep sharp on players. I’d recommend it.

Because of the long season, there will be short windows of opportunities to take advantage of inside knowledge such as a key player unexpectedly not being in the lineup either through injury, suspension or other personal reasons. The biggest NBA bet I ever won came a couple of years ago when 30 minutes before tip-off I received a call from a source saying Steve Francis wouldn’t play.

The books got that same information a few minutes before tip-off, but in that short interval before the house found out, I was able to bet against Francis’ team, which happened to be the Rockets at the time, while also betting the under. Both wagers easily won.

These kinds of dream spots don’t crop up too often, but they can prove profitable when they do. The bottom line with beating the NBA is to keep plugging; exploit hot streaks; take advantage of rare inside information when it appears; lay low during cold spells; and respect how tough it is to make a huge profit wagering on the sport. Keep things in perspective. The NBA can be beat, but not if you’re impatient and greedy.

HOW NBA HANDICAPPING HAS CHANGED IN THE 66-GAME SCHEDULE

2012-02-18T12:16:00.001-06:00

Normally the lines for the next day’s NBA games start trickling out by around 3 p.m. ET. But for Thursday’s three games - Nets-Pacers, Celtics-Bulls and Clippers-Trail Blazers - there wasn’t a single spread posted within 24 hours of tipoff.

Welcome to the jam-packed, 66-game NBA schedule.

Here’s how the NBA handicapping landscape has changed during the 2011-12 lockout-shortened season:

Fear of the unknown

Thursday’s trio of games was a perfect storm. Five of the six teams played the night before, making handicapping somewhat dangerous because of a potential big injury suffered Wednesday or a multiple-overtime result that would leave a team drained the next night. It's always been a danger when taking the early odds for the second half of back-to-back games, but it's even more prominent in the NBA this season.

Injury bug infestation

And speaking of injuries, there were some vital ones that would have affected the spread for Thursday’s game.

Indiana’s Danny Granger was a game-time call on Wednesday – he didn’t play vs. Cleveland – and obviously oddsmakers weren’t about to put a number on the Nets-Pacers game without knowing the status of Indiana’s top scorer.

Ditto for the Clippers-Trail Blazers spread because Portland’s LaMarcus Aldridge, the Blazers’ top scorer, sat out with an injury Wednesday. And while the Bulls didn’t play Wednesday, the status of Derrick Rose remained up in the air for the Celtics game after Rose had missed the previous three games with back spasms.

Depth is the difference

Sometimes those injuries can torpedo a team, like the Nuggets, who have struggled since leading scorer Danilo Gallinari went down. Sometimes injuries, however, can be the impetus for a surge. The Knicks’ Jeremy Lin wouldn’t be a global sensation and leading New York to seven wins in a row if the injured Carmelo Anthony was out there stealing shots.

Making sure a team has a solid second - and even third - option behind an injured starter is even more important as the season wears on and more ailments pile up.

Forest through the trees

Because there are so many games squeezed into such a tight schedule there is a lot more work to do each day for cappers to find value.

With less time in between games, inside info from local papers and beat writers is harder to come by, especially if you’re trying to take advantage of the early lines. In past seasons, you could get two days of coverage on a team in between games. But with the frantic pace of the schedule, there is less time to learn about your bets.

Three’s a crowd

Basketball bettors are getting the chance to handicap teams playing back-to-back-to-back sets this season, a situation they haven’t seen since the last lockout-shortened season.

You can find nice value in overnight lines because often there is plenty of movement from when odds are released to where they sit in the morning.

The most unusual three-games-in-three-nights result this year was from Feb. 12-14, when Miami won and covered easily at Atlanta, at Milwaukee and at Indiana. That’s two potential playoff teams Miami beat as well as a Bucks club that had the Heat’s number twice previously this season.

The Heat became the first NBA team in 33 years to win three road games in three nights.

Running on empty

Perhaps the top trend this season is that tired legs usually equal lousy shooting, which then leads to low-scoring games and plenty of unders - although books have certainly adjusted totals accordingly.

Shooting percentages are down more than a percentage point and around two percentage points on 3-pointers from last season. Last year, 11 teams averaged at least 100 points, led by the Denver Nuggets (107.5). This season, just three teams average 100 or more points, led by Miami’s 103.5 points per game. The Heat are just 14-14-2 over/under entering the weekend.

No team averaged less than 90 points a game a season ago but four are below that mark this year, with wretched Charlotte at the bottom at 86.5 points a night.

Paying attention to shooting slumps and how the schedule will impact a team's ability to fix them is becoming more important for NBA cappers.

How are the lines set?

2012-02-12T14:16:00.000-06:00

While the odds makers do to try approximate the median margin of victory between two teams, they also try to reduce their exposure to risk by setting lines such that the public money will fall evenly on both sides of a game, so that they can offset the bets against each other and earn a profit on the juice (cut of winnings taken by the house, explained below) without exposing themselves to large potential losses. Thus, odds makers are often in the business of gauging public perception rather than team performance, and therefore the betting public actually sets the line. If Georgia is 4 points better than Georgia Tech according to my advanced metrics and analysis, but the aggregate public perception is that Georgia is 7 points better than Georgia Tech, then the posted point spread is likely to be closer to 6.5 or 7 points (public perception) than it will be to 4 points (the realistic difference between the teams). This makes my job as a professional handicapper much less daunting; not only can I exploit lines where the odds makers leave an edge, but I can also exploit the uniformed opinions of the general betting public.

Isn't gambling risky?

I don't believe that the term 'gambling' applies to what I do. I sell information to subscribers, with which they can take positive expectation positions in uncertain markets. With correct financial optimization and bankroll management, long term risks are nominal compared to the risks of investing in other, more conventional markets. Just as a single stock may go up or down in a day, any one team may win or lose a given game. But as long as the investor maintains a long-term perspective, understands variance, and doesn't over-extend themselves or bet more than they can easily handle, risk can be highly mitigated, and they can earn a very attractive risk adjusted return.

Juice, and the power of 56%

2012-02-12T14:12:00.000-06:00

Even though most sports bettors are losers in their own right (as a whole, bettors actually win an average of only 48% of their bets - less than they would expect to win if they just flipped a coin for every game), their losses are compounded by the fact that the house takes a cut of winnings, also known as the 'juice' or 'vig.' Most sports books charge a 10% commission on wins, which means that a bettor must actually win 52.4% of his games just to break even. (Wagering $100 per game, a bettor loses $100 with a loss and wins $90.91 with a win, so he must go 11-10 (11/21 = 52.38%) to break even). Recently, some online books have started to offer lower juice, betting exchanges and deposit bonuses, which reduce the house edge.

In order to beat the juice and win in sports betting, a bettor must employ a disciplined approach in their analysis of each game using methods that have proven to be successful in the long run. I discuss my math models and analytical metrics in my Handicapping Methods essay, but you must realize that only the best and most knowledgeable handicappers can win 55% of their games. In their 2007 two page article about my handicapping success, the Wall Street Journal wrote, "...fewer than 100 people can sustain (win rates of 55%) over time. Most of them belong to professional betting syndicates that hire teams of statisticians, wager millions every week and keep their operations secret." Even fewer bettors can hit 56-57% over a 20 year period as I have.

Touts often claim to be able to hit 60% or higher, but as I explain in my essay on Bayesian Probability, anyone who tells you that their long term expected winning percentage is higher than 60% is deluding themselves. For a bettor to claim a greater than 60% long term expected win percentage, that would be mean that Vegas would have to consistently release lines with egregious errors, and that simply just does not happen often enough for claims of greater than 60% long term expected win percentages to be caused anything other than blind, short-term luck.

I often hear amateur gamblers erroneously claim that winning 56% of games isn't even enough to beat juice. As demonstrated above, a bettor only needs to win 52.4% to break even, and a 56% bettor will be profitable in the long run if they pursue an optimal money management strategy.

Of course, as in any game of chance, there is variability in the actual results and just because you have won 56% in the past and expect to win 56% in the future doesn't mean that you're going to win 56% this upcoming season. There is variance in sports betting, as there is in most investments, and I calculate the standard deviation to figure out how much of my bankroll I can safely wager on each game during the season to accommodate potential negative swings while having very little chance of exhausting my bankroll. I have extensively quantified the variance that exists in sports betting, and use mathematical formulas to dictate the exact optimal amount to invest so as to maximize the ratio of profits to variance.

A football season with 56% winners (my long term percentage) on 400 units or 'stars' would on average yield +30.04 stars ( (400*.56) - (400*.44)*1.1 ). Even using a very conservative 1.5% per star (in the past, I have recommended 2%), that's an expected return of 45.06%.

A basketball season with 54% winners (my long term percentage) on 1,050 units or 'stars' would on average yield +35.7 stars ( (1050*.54) - (1050*.46)*1.1 ). Using a conservative 1.1% per star (in the past, I have recommended 1.5%), that's an expected return of 39.27%. So, despite a lower overall winning percentage, I expect a season's worth of basketball wagers to be almost as profitable as a season of football in the future. Over the last ten years, my basketball wagers have actually been more profitable than football, but I have done a lot of analysis this summer and I expect my football wagers to be even better next year than they have been in the past.

Units Won vs. Winning Percentage

2011-11-16T11:47:00.000-06:00

Units Won vs. Winning Percentage

While both “Units Won” and winning percentage can be telling when evaluating a group of plays, the sample size (number of plays) is also an important piece of information to look at. Some bettors use a strategy that is referred to as the Wal-Mart approach. With this strategy, bettors are hoping to grind out a profit through a higher quantity of plays, which allows bettors to spread around their risk in the sports betting marketplace.

In the table above, Pinnacle has a lower winning percentage than Phoenix, but it also has a higher profit for the season due to triggering more than double the number of plays. Spreading risk around allows bettors to ride the highs and lows of the season and still turn a profit. This approach requires bettors to be steadfast with their betting amounts. At Sports Insights, we recommend using 2% of your starting bankroll for each wager. Fluctuations in your standard bet will most likely cause more damage during the lows than it will help during the highs.

Spreading the risk around in the sports betting marketplace is similar to building a diverse portfolio in the stock market. It lessens the damage done by a rough stretch in the market. If a bettor is starting out with a $100 bankroll, and decides to use $25 wagers, there is a good chance the bankroll would be decimated by an early cold streak. However, if that same bettor makes $2 wagers, he can withstand any early cold streaks to remain in the market and realize positive gains. For example, Sports Insights betting strategies will produce 5-10 plays on an average day with an expected 54-55% win percentage. Instead of betting two games at $50 each, we suggest you bet 2% of your bankroll on 10 plays.

Moneyline Sports vs. Spread Sports

Many bettors like to stay away from moneyline-based sports, such as baseball and hockey, due to the extremes in winning percentages, but they can be very profitable. Betting on the underdog in moneyline sports will likely give you a losing record, but the payouts for winners will be so much higher that your profits will increase. Below is a section of a results page for MLB Smart Money plays. Notice that five out the six books have losing records for the triggered plays, but that all six have significant units won due to underdog payouts.

The other side of the coin is betting on favorites, which will give you a strong winning percentage, but can still produce a loss in money. Betting on teams like the Yankees or Red Wings will consistently put your odds in the -200s or higher. If you average odds of -200, you would need that team to win 67% of the time to break even. If your average odds go any higher, you’ll need to win 70% or more to not lose money.

For example, if you wager on the Yankees every game of the season (162 games) and they average -200 odds for the season, you would need them to win 109 games just to break even. To turn any substantial profit you would need them to break the single-season win record (116).

How to win betting college basketball tournament games

2010-03-09T17:13:00.000-06:00

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The regular season is over except for one Ivy League game and the automatic bids are starting to fill in part of the NCAA Tournament dance card, with many of the so-called mid-majors having their conference championships completed. This leaves the bigger and more well-known conferences, along with a sprinkling of somewhat smaller leagues to start filling in with their respective teams.
In order to win during ESPN’s Championship week, you have to follow somewhat different rules than the regular season in wagering this week. Here are aspects to remember.

1) Choosing the right pooch

In most conferences tourney’s, underdogs are an above average wager, as these teams generally have more motivation and likely need to win to get in the tournament. One thing to look for is underdogs that have lost to opponent by 10 or more points twice and are double digit dogs before the semi-final round. This is where an unfocused favorite is most vulnerable and likely will go thru the motions against opponent that has been coached up for this being “a brand new season”. This can be particularly true if the underdog has already won one game in first round of larger conference event and has built a little momentum.

2) Underdogs in the right range

Another situation to look for is an underdog that has lost twice to the same opponent but by five or less points in home and away situations in the same season. The scores tell us the difference between the two teams is not that significant, a shot here, a few missed free throws or late turnover could have been the difference. The underdog knows they are capable of beating this team; they just have to go out and prove it, which they are certainly capable of. This can be especially true if they have a lower defensive shooting percentage than their opponent on the season. Best bets are those at three points or higher.
3) Don’t get carried away with revenge

One of the most common mistakes I see and hear is sports bettors playing into multiple revenge situations. The two bits of information I just laid out do fall into revenge areas, but don’t get carried away. One such circumstance would be playing against a favorite, who defeated opponent by 15 or more points twice and in both cases the spread was single digits. In all likelihood, the oddsmakers will once again set a number below 10, making this a bad wager and here is why. If the underdog has been blown out twice and the oddsmakers is still calling for tighter game, something is amiss. The next step is to find if there is a matchup issue for the underdog, a player they can’t contain or maybe a style of defense they can’t solve. Old school handicapping would say bet the underdog seeking revenge, but today’s athlete is more confident to “work” opponent and is fearless knowing they can school foe yet again.

Another case would be a single digit underdog who lost by 25 or more with the teams meeting only one time and they were dogs by less than 10 points in previous meeting and have lost two of the prior three confrontations in past years. Basically the same scenario, the favorite cleans the clock of opponent and has history with many of the same players on the roster to do so yet again.

4) When in doubt go Under

Totals become a greater focus in college basketball this time of year, even for those that don’t play them a great deal during the regular season. Conference tournaments are about familiarity and coaches have more than enough film to understand tendencies of whom they are about to play and the pace slows considerably. This is not a revelation, as those setting the numbers are keenly aware, however they can’t deviate too far off the performance chart of how teams have played and all season, low-balling a number they might prefer, but than being slammed with a high volume of Over money, leaving them susceptible to being middled.

5) Road Warriors are safe bet

Always know the road record of matched teams in any meeting. Teams that have success on the road are less likely to give a bad performance as a favorite or underdog if they understand how to play away from home. It wasn’t a coincidence that William and Mary made the Colonial final, despite having no pedigree do to so. The Tribe entered the title game 12-6 and 11-6 ATS as a visitor. It’s worth watching Southern Mississippi who is 12-3 ATS away from Hattiesburgh and Richmond this week, who posted 10-6 and 11-4 ATS mark on the road.

One word of caution, don’t follow spread records exclusively, know the score. A team like East Carolina that might look attractive at first glance at 1o-5 against the spread when out-of-town, but are they a good bet say at +8 or less when they lose on average by more than 10 points a game?

6) Numbers don’t lie

By now, most every team has played around 30 games or more and as former NFL football coach Bill Parcels said, “you are who you are”. If a team is around .500, yet has won five in a row, study the numbers to understand what has changed and look up information on the team. Maybe a change in the lineup sparked a hot streak or if this team was underachieving until recently and finally started playing up to level most suspected they should all year, that would be reason to look beyond the numbers.

Otherwise, don’t presume a team like North Carolina, who has surrendered 78 points per game away from Chapel Hill, is suddenly going to be a defensive maven and win the ACC Tournament because they decided to turn it on. Can it happen, of course, is it likely too, not really.

7) Follow coaches, just carefully

This past week, I was reading thru several different forums and at least on 20 occasions from a variety of bettors, they were all going to play Creighton to beat Bradley in Arch Madness, for first game for both squads because of the coach’s history. Dana Altman is a proven X’s and O’s coach, and has won The Valley tournament a number of times and had success in the NCAA tourney as well. One big thing to remember, he did this with better than average to very good teams. He came into matchup with Bradley, with a boring 16-14 club that was 3-12 and 4-11 ATS away from Omaha. The Blue Jays were four point favorites and were scalped by the Braves 81-62.

It makes sense to back a coach with a solid March history, but only if he has the players capable of maximizing his skills.

8) Need to know info

This is a bit self-serving, but Steve Makinen of StatFox worked his tail off in finding some of the finest information you will discover anywhere about particular conference tournaments. It’s on the site, so make sure to read it and keep it handy this week in making decisions. For me personally, I picked up two winners that I was on the fence about and dropped two games that would have been losers, because of this information.

One last case to remember. Just because a team hosts a conference tournament does not make them a lock to being champions. There have been ample times this has occurred, however they can also fail. Already this year,Mercer made the championship game on their home floor and came up short as an underdog to East Tennessee State and top seeded Coastal Carolina failed as a favorite in title tilt as a home favorite to Winthrop.

Make certain to follow these tips and you too can become a consistent betting winner during championship week.

Baseball Betting - How to Bet on Baseball

2010-03-07T17:49:00.000-06:00

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Baseball Betting - How to Bet on Baseball
Many longtime sports bettors will say that baseball is the easiest of the major sports in which to show a profit, yet it's one of the least wagered on sports around.

In the book "Sports Betting: A Winner's Handbook" Jerry Patterson states, "More big scores have been made betting on baseball than any other proposition."
The most common assumption on why sports gamblers don't wager on baseball is that they don't know how. There is no point spread and the odds used for baseball wagering look foreign to them. But it's actually quite easy.
The first thing prospective baseball bettors need to do is understand how the money line works.
Smart bettors and professional gamblers will seldom give odds greater than -140 when betting on baseball and always look for a reason to bet the underdog. If you bet nothing but underdogs you can win less than half of your bets and still come out ahead in the long run.
The Run Line
The run line is essentially a combination of the point spread and the money line rolled into one. Don't worry, once you see it in action, it's not nearly as confusing as it first sounds.

The run line uses a constant spread of 1.5 runs, although on very rare occasions you may see it jump to 2.5 runs. The team that is favored on the money line will also be the favored team on the run line.
Let's use an example of the Royals playing at the Red Sox. On the regular money line we may see odds like:
Kansas City Royals +165
Boston Red Sox -180
As you remember from your reading on the money line, what this means is that Red Sox bettors are asked to risk $180 to win $100, while Royals bettors will risk $100 to win $165.
But when betting with the run line, we would expect to see the same game looking closer to:
Kansas City Royals +1.5 -125
Boston Red Sox -1.5 +105
Now, those people betting on the Royals are risking more money than they will win, in this case $125 to win $100, but they are receiving 1.5 runs. Even if the Royals lose by one run, those betting Kansas City on the run line will win their bet because of the 1.5 runs.
Looking at another game, this time where the road team is favored, we'll choose the Padres at the Giants. For our purposes, let's say the odds on the game were:
San Diego Padres -115
San Francisco Giants +105
On the money line, Padres bettors will risk $115 to win $100, while Giants bettors will risk $100 to win $105. Using the run line, however, we would see odds resembling:
San Diego Padres -1.5 +135
San Francisco Giants +1.5 -155
The reason the odds didn't change as much for the Padres (-115 to +135) as they did for the Red Sox (-180 to +105) is because the Red Sox are the home team and will not bat in the bottom of the ninth inning if they lead by one run or they will stop batting in the ninth inning if they go ahead by a run, even if the bases are loaded and there are no outs, unless they score by home run.
The Padres, as the road team, will continue to bat all the way through the ninth inning even if they're already ahead, or if the Padres take a one run lead in the top of the ninth, they'll continue to swing away and try to add to their lead.
Betting the run like makes sense when you like a big favorite and can get them at reduced odds by giving the 1.5 runs.
It's also wise to consider the predicted amount of runs scored in a game when looking at the run line. Obviously, 1.5 runs is more meaningful in a contest where the oddsmaker is predicting a total of 7 runs to be scored than it is in a game where the predicted total is 14 runs.
How is the predicted number of runs figured? Simply by looking at the oddsmaker's over/under number on the game. If you don't know anything about over/unders, you're in luck, as that's our next topic.
Baseball Overs & Unders
If you're completely new to overs/unders, more commonly referred to as totals, a good place to get started is here.

Baseball totals are just like the totals for any other sport, in that you're betting the total number of points (runs in this case) is either over or under the bookmaker's predicted total.
The one difference is that in many cases you will have to risk more than the standard -110 used in football and basketball totals when you place a baseball totals bet. On the positive side, there will be cases where you receive favorable odds, such as +120 when you place a toals bet in baseball.
Using our earlier game between the Padres and the Giants for total purposes, it's quite possible we would see a totals proposition of:
San Diego Padres OV 8.5 -130
San Francisco Giants UN 8.5 +110[
What this means is that bettors wishing to wager more than 8.5 runs will be scored will have to risk $130 to win $100, while those wagering on the under will risk $100 to win $110.
For wagering purposes what happens in extra innings counts, both for totals and run line bets.
As a general rule, strikeout pitchers typically perform better in night games and may be solid under plays, while off-speed pitchers who don't register too many strikeouts are usually good over plays when they are pitching in the daytime.
There you have the basics to betting on the National Pastime. Bet wisely and remember that it's a long season and you might be the next gambler to be singing the praises of baseball wagering.

The Ten Commandments of Prudent Sports Gambling

2010-02-25T16:23:00.000-06:00

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The Ten Commandments of Prudent Sports Gambling

#1: Thou Shalt Use Sound Money Management
Perhaps the biggest mistake that I see in other players is a complete lack of Risk Management and a lack of discipline therein. This is the single most prevalent reason that I see why people blow up and get in big trouble gambling.

Let’s first go over how a player should assess their own situation when it comes to Risk Management, as it will determine the total amount that they are willing to lose (Bankroll), the number of plays they will make (Gross Action), their worst case win rate and their average bet size. If you compute these factors BEFORE you start playing, then you will not blow up, pure and simple. You will have a plan and will sleep better at night. You may still lose but it will be a manageable loss inside of your bankroll. If you don’t do this, things can get away from you very quickly, and before you know it, you have blown up, and Moose and Rocco are driving away in your car. We just can not allow that to happen.

When I ask most players what their bankroll is, or the total amount that they are willing to lose in a season, most give me a blank stare or say “as little as possible!” If you play, you simply have to have a stated amount that you are comfortable losing and have it in a liquid (checking or savings) account at a bank. Moose and Rocco mostly only accept cash so you should have it ready at hand in the event that things go the wrong way. Trust me when I tell you that there is nothing worse in the world than having to scramble to get the cash to pay off a bookie as I have had to do this myself a time or two over the years. It’s incredibly stressful and most of us already have enough stress in our lives. One other piece of advice is if you get paid out before the end of the season, deposit it in the same bank account and do not immediately spend it. You can always spend it at the end of the season and you may need it to cover a subsequent cold streak later in the season. Hope for the best, but plan for the worst.

One last point that deserves to be stressed: if you don’t have any money to lose, just do not play. I know that sounds obvious, but the fact is that many players that I know have no business playing in the first place. This is a game for people with means who can afford it, and the least capitalized players are also the most desperate players and they make reckless, desperate plays….and lose, and the consequences can be devastating. It goes without saying that you should not be gambling your mortgage payment each month on lay 110 to win 100 propositions. Your betting should be an investment of capital that you have in the bank that you hope to make a nice (tax free) return on, but if it has a more significant impact on your overall livelihood and well-being if it is wiped out, then I am sorry but you just do not qualify to be a player. Come back and see me when you have some risk capital for this activity. But until then, DO NOT BET!

Most people bet too much per play and don’t even realize it. This is the case because they bet too high of a unit level given their risk profile and number of plays they make over a given time horizon, usually a season.

Let’s go through an example for the football season and see the math that helps us arrive at a sensible unit level per play:

Bankroll: $10K

Number of plays: 10 per week over 16 weeks, or 160 total plays

Assumed worst case win rate: 40%

Drain ratio: Win factor .40 + Loss factor (1-Win factor)*.10 vig= -.26

In order to cap your losses at $10,000 with a Drain Ratio of -.26, you can afford Total Action of $10,000/.26 = $38,461

Therefore, if you can afford $38,461 in total action for the season and put out 160 plays, you should use an average play of $38,461/160, or $240 per play. Most people are shocked to hear this low number, as they usually say “If I had $10 dimes to lose, I would bet a nickel or a dime per play!”, but the numbers don’t lie and you should take heed.

An important note is this should be your average play, not your base unit. Your base unit in this example should probably be $100 and you will be betting and average of 2.4 units per play. Most pick services will have varying levels of attractiveness in their plays, such as a 2* or 3* etc. So, use a base unit to work your action to fit this model. In this model, to keep your average bet at the $240 level, you will most probably want to play $200 and $300 per play, and occasionally a $100 or $400 play mixed in. Another way to look at it is that you will have a “budget” of about $2500 of action per week and can put out 10 plays, so it is up to you to vary the number of units to “fit” your service.

Also, please understand the sensitivity of the average bet to the number of plays and/or the worst case win rate. For instance, if you are more conservative, perhaps you will want to use a lower worst-case win rate of 35%. This will take the Drain Ratio up to -36.5. Based on 160 total plays, you will only be able to afford $27,397 in Total Action over the same 160 plays, taking your average bet down to $171.

In like manner, if you think you will play more often, then it will also have the effect of reducing your average play. With a 35% win rate and double the plays to 320, then the average play goes all the way down to $85. It makes sense that if you play more often, you can lose more often and your bets need to be smaller.

There are a few more points to make. First, you obviously are looking at your risk over the whole season but you should not vary your bets over the course of the season based on how well/poorly you are faring. It flies in the face of risk management to do so, so the plan is to stick to a base unit that will produce your targeted average bet and STICK TO IT no matter what. If you don’t, this plan will not work and you will most likely blow up. Second, because this is a plan for the entire season, it limits your loss to your bank roll over the entire season. It does not account for the timing of the win ratio. For instance, if you bet $200 per play and started out 0-45, your $10k bankroll would be gone and you would be at your stop loss before you had the chance to go on a 64-51 run to finish the season and get some back(based on a 40% win rate). And the opposite can happen too, when you win a lot early and then go deathly cold to end the season. Either way, it is not a fail-proof thing, but at least it gives all players a framework in which to customize their wagering size based on their own view of how much they will play and how badly they could possibly do on a worst-case scenario. My job is to let you see the factors at work here, and clearly no one thinks they will only win at a 40% rate, otherwise they wouldn’t play in the first place. I personally use 40% as my worst-case win ratio, based on that fact that my service historically runs at about 57%, so for them to only win at only 40% is a pretty major divergence from their mean win rate. But I use it as a Doomsday Scenario so I can plan my season accordingly, and if they have a terrible season, I know that I will be stopped out at my bankroll. My point is to show you how your money will last in bad scenarios so that you can think it through before it happens, be mentally prepared to deal with it, and have the cash on hand to pay it.

Eventually, I will try to create an interactive calculator on here for people to use to gauge what average bet they plan to use for a season. But, again, it is up to you (and only you) not to deviate from the plan. Get your units straight before the season starts and stick to them all the way through, no matter what happens. If you start to “double up to catch up” (betting bigger average bets when you are in a cold streak), you will blow up. That is the biggest lesson that I can show out of this whole section.

#2: Thou Shalt Hire A Pick Service
Let’s be honest: anyone who bets thinks that they know a lot about sports, or rather, they think that they know more about sports than the average dude. And we may know our own favorite teams inside and out. But, at the end of the day, we simply have to face the stone cold truth that we really do not know anything truly relevant to the outcome that everyone else doesn’t know. Sure, we have our own opinions and we may occasionally be correct, but in reality we are just guessing and making hunches over and over again, with no real “edge” that is sustainable. And without a sustainable edge, how do we plan to overcome the 10% vigorish over the long haul?

As an example of what I mean, do the following exercise with a friend. Your friend will be “The House”, and he has 10 $1-dollar bills in his stack. You are “The Player”, and you have $9 $1-dollar bills and 10 dimes. Your buddy flips the coin and you try to call it in the air. If you are right, you get a $1. If you are wrong, you pay $1 and a dime. See who runs out of money first…..

If you are a sports gambler, this is what you are doing, over and over again, but the stakes are much higher than my example as most players bet $100 to $1000 at a whack, and those dimes really range from $10 bills to $100 bills on each play. If you know each flip is a 50-50 proposition as it is in my example, than you probably can see why most players lose. If you play Exotics, use quarters in the example instead of dimes. Eventually, the vig will grind you out of your bankroll. It may take a long time if you win a few times in a row or it may happen very quickly, but the reality is that if you have to pay vig on a coin flip, you will lose in the long haul. Period. There is simply no getting around this reality of simple mathematics. If this fact were not true, than sportsbooks and bookies would not exist and would not earn significant profits year after year.

So, given these facts, if you plan to still play, you simply need to find a way to make your odds better than a coin flip. In other words, you need some means (an "edge") to find a winning percentage above 50%. That is why I suggest that you outsource your picks to a Pick Service, also known as a “Tout” or a professional handicapper. These are people whose whole livelihood is based on their ability to pick winners; this is all they do all day. Surely, all things being equal, they stand a better chance of beating the 50% win rate than you can, given their ability to analyze all aspects of a sports contest. They have so much more data and analytical capabilities that you and I simply do not have access to.

But not all pick services are the same, and it demands you to do some diligence on your part, since you are basically putting your hard-earned cash in their hands. I have 4 rules when it comes to Touts:

Rule #1: There is an inverse relationship to a touts credibility and their decibel level. As you probably guessed, some touts are scumbags. As a matter of fact, most are! Most are just trying to get you hooked on their picks and make outlandish claims such as “We were 8-0 last week in the NFL!” And I have noticed that the louder they yell their picks into their recorded message or on the radio or on TV, the more they are just trying to instill false confidence in you to try their service. Many of these boiler room touts will have one recording for half of their callers, and another recording with THE EXACT OPPOSITE PICK for the other half. This way, they always have someone who is happy and will be back to pay them the next week. Only choose a pick service with a verifiable track record and be skeptical about them. As in all things, talk is cheap and these guys can tell you anything you want to hear.

Rule #2: You get what you pay for. I recommend paying for a pick service, as “free picks” from touts, the media, or your buddies that call with “locks” are long-term losing situations. When a pick service gives away their picks, or their 400-Star “Lock of the Week”, think about what they are trying to do. They are trying to get new customers who will eventually pay, so they do the 50-50 thing and will look great to the half who got the winning pick, and they blow out the losers. The winners come back for more and then they do it all over again for a new set of new players the next week. You can imagine how many people they convert if their “Lock of the Week” wins. You probably think they always win like that. But the fact is that you don’t know which half you are in.

Paying for a service should not make you wary, but should actually make you more comfortable with your pick service. The reason is that the good guys in this business don’t have to give away their best picks for free to attract new subscribers. Their published track record speaks for itself and enough people view it as a recurring source of winners to keep them in business year in and year out. Quite simply, they do not have to resort to hype and/or false claims to sell their service. Let the market point you to the good guys.

As for listening to the media or your friends, trust me when I tell you that it is a losing proposition. For the most part, the media are the people responsible for creating the public perception that helps the oddmakers create line for games, and they constantly state the obvious and really have no real inside scoop. In a nutshell, they are really not much more capable of consistently picking winners than you and me. So why would we ever want to invest our money on their picks? Anyone who watches ESPN Gameday or NFL Countdown to make their wagering decisions is never, ever going to win consistently.

Lastly, if you have that friend of yours (and we all have them) who calls you 5 minutes before kickoff and says “Notre Dame laying 3 at home is a lock!” please do yourself a favor and ignore him. As a matter of fact, tell him to not call with his picks until after the games have started. This way, you can still talk amicably about betting the games without you having to deal with the temptation to play his poorly reasoned plays. Want an easy way to get him to stop? Just challenge him “What is your edge?” or “What is your thesis or angle on this one?” Most times you will hear silence, as they are just betting on a hunch, clearly a losing proposition when you flip that coin and lay 110 to win 100. Stay away!

Rule #3: Look for detailed analysis of each pick service’s plays. The legitimate pick services out there are happy to show you examples of their analysis, and the more detail that is provided, the more credible they are. If your pick service is merely some meatball screaming the pick at you without any real basis or backup, they are probably hucksters and you should run far far away. When you think about it, if this is their entire livelihood, and all they did all week was crunch stats and assess angles and power ratings all day, surely they could provide some of that analysis to you if you are paying them for the picks. So, the lesson is that it is a huge red flag if a service just gives you a side and leaves it at that. The legit guys will explain the various angles involved and make you feel a lot more comfortable in playing it, while the illegitimate guys could well be flipping a coin. So, be careful and always be asking your service to “Show You the Edge” before you show them any money.

Rule #4: Just like in investments, when something sounds too good to be true, it probably is. When pick services make outlandish claims of winning over 70% of their plays, they are doing one of two things, neither of them respectable. On one hand, they are just flat out lying, as there is no one out there to police their claims. There is no Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) policing these claims like there are in the investment world. So, they have nothing really to lose by falsifying their track record. On the other hand, their hot track record may actually be true, but over a limited, cherry-picked time horizon. They may have actually gone 7-2 last weekend, but they fail to disclose that they are 34-56 for the season. The former number will sell their product, the latter will not. So, just think through what these people are representing, be skeptical, and never believe claims in excess of 70% win rates. Even the best (legit) handicappers in the world run long-term win rates in the 55-62% range, so any claims above that range are most probably fraudulent. Also, the use of the terms “Guaranteed” and “Lock” are also red flags, as there simply are no guarantees or locks in this business. Just use your brain, and ask other players for referrals to the legit guys (or choose some from my Approved List) before you turnover your cash (their fee) AND your profit and loss (the results they produce using your bankroll). There is obviously a lot at stake so choosing your service is extremely important to get right.

If you are unsure about a service, email me, I will do some due diligence of them for you, and post my findings on the Approved List or “Stay Away List”

#3: Thou Shalt Employ Multiple Bookies
The vast majority of players that I talk to only use one bookie. I strongly suggest that you have more than one bookie at all times as there are many solid reasons for doing so. Perhaps the most important reason is so you can shop your action to whomever has the best line on any given game. You have no idea how overlooked this is and how much money it can save you! While most bookies have the same lines on most games, perhaps 25% of the games have ½ point differentials, and some even over a point! One Super Bowl, thought to be the most efficient oddsmaking game in the world, had a 2 ½ point variation from one bookie to another, due to the region of the country. But you would never know it if you just booked with one guy. It is so very important to shop more than one book for the best line, as that ½ point difference can easily mean the difference in a loser and a push. It has happened to me over and over again….my buddy will call all depressed “Man, I am so bummed that we lost that bet by just a ½ point” and then I just don't have the heart to tell him that I played it at a different book and pushed.

Remember that when you buy the hook (which I never ever suggest), a bookie gets double juice. So, for every $100 play, it is worth $10 (or $5 on an expected value basis). So, if I can find a better line and play it, it is like getting $10 per $100 for free. Why wouldn’t I have multiple books to shop it and pick up $10 every time I succeeded? If you take no other advice away from this site, I beg you to get multiple bookies and shop them. You will thank me when that Push turns into a Winner because you shopped your action.

There is another important reason to have multiple bookies is a very little known online practice called “Player Profiling”. Now, what I am about to suggest occurs is a matter of speculation on my part, my own experiences betting online, and rumors from other players. Player Profiling is usually only done by online sportsbooks and involves the practice of analyzing the individual tendencies that you have as a player based on your track record. It can involve such factors as your geographic location, your penchant for favorites, or your pick service. What I am convinced that they do is use this information about you to their advantage by shading the lines published to you in their favor and hurting your odds of winning significantly.

Let me give you a few examples. Let’s say that you live in Miami and you play Miami every week by routine. Well, they will probably see your home address and figure out pretty quickly that you are not price sensitive and will bet Miami no matter what the line is. So, I think they publish a Miami line only to you (through your player ID) that is 1/2 to a full point worse than that which is offered to “non-Miami” players. There is no law that I know of that makes them have to offer the exact same line to everyone they have in their book, and even if there is, who is going to call them out on it?

Instead of being a Miami player, perhaps you always bet big NFL favorites consistently. I contend that they have the ability to mine the data of all of their players that have this same tendency and shade the lines against them. And the same is true for pick services. I have seen this happen before in my own experiences in that they can pretty easily figure out what pick service that you are playing. I have seen them move lines against me by a full point between the time I enter the bet and then try to confirm it. And they do this because they then subscribe to the same service that I do and then move the lines against me before I can play them at the original lines. They can only do this by player profiling. If you use more than one book, it is a good way to “throw them off” as each book will only see a partial picture of your overall action and it may fall into the random category of play instead of a specific profile. Trust me when I tell you that you do not want to be taken advantage of by being profiled and multiple bookies will help hide your edge from them.

Lastly, there are a couple of other benefits of multiple bookies. One is the ability to have multiple lines of credit. It is always preferable to have a line of credit as opposed to having to pay upfront as most offshore book require. It is a huge pain making deposits these days, so if you can find a local human bookie who will extend credit, use static lines, and isn’t profiling you, they are usually the best set up. If you feel better about an offshore set up, look for discounted juice, deposit bonuses, and other perks for the hassle of paying upfront.

The last benefit is that when you have more than one bookie, you have the ability to play “middles” when the opportunity presents itself. A middle is when the same bet has significantly different lines at different books, or a line that has changed significantly from where a player initially bet it. In a middle, you play both sides on the same bet and hope that the game ends up between the two lines. A Middle player is just risking the vig on one side of the play, in the hopes of hitting the middle and winning both sides of the play, resulting in a 20:1 hit assuming 10% vig. A Middle can also win on a push which is a 10:1 hit. Obviously, a middle player wants to have as wide a spread as possible between the two lines, ideally covering some of the magic numbers of football like 10 and 11, 6 and 7, 3 and 4. Although I haven’t done the math involved (someday I will), I think a common sense rule of thumb is to have at least 2 full points between the two lines to make it worthwhile.

#4: Thou Shalt Display Will Power
Once you have your Money Management plan intact, it is just as important that you do not deviate from that plan. And the only way that you can make that happen is to summon a great deal of will power.

There are three ways to get derailed, and if you start doing any of them at any time during the season, you simply must check yourself and get back to the plan. Otherwise, there is a very high likelihood that you blow up.

Bad Sign #1: Playing without your Edge One of the bad signs is when you start betting on hunches without any edge. If you are doing this, it is time to remember why you bet in the first place. You are betting plays to overcome the odds that are stacked against you. Betting plays without any edge is not accomplishing the goal and will most certainly lead to losses over the long term. If you get the urge to play something outside of your pick service’s plays, do not do so on impulse. Think about if this type of unjustified play is really why you are a gambler in the first place, and most of the time you will quickly realize that it is not and lay off the play. Again, I never said it was easy but being able to say “No!” to yourself is perhaps the most important personality trait a successful sports gambler can have.

Bad Signs #2 and #3: More Active or Bigger Action Another worrisome sign is when you start straying outside of your predetermined limits on size or frequency of your action, and it can get ugly really quickly when you get reckless with both size and frequency simultaneously. If your bankroll, frequency and worst-case win rate all dictate that you should have an average bet of $200 based on our money management formula, and you find yourself putting out a nickel a throw, well you are not sticking to your game plan and will probably blow up. Likewise, even if you are betting within your size limits but are putting out 20 plays a week instead of just 10 like your plan states, you must scale back your frequency; otherwise you risk the absolutely real possibility of blowing up. You need to go on what I call an “Action Diet”. If your plan says that you can afford $40,000 in gross season-long action, then you have an Action Diet of about $2500 per week, based on a 16-week season. I really don’t care how you split up that action and it should really be dictated by your pick service ratings. But find a combination of size and frequency that fits your service and that you are comfortable with. In this example, you could put on 10 plays for $250 each or 5 Nickel plays. Again, do whatever makes you feel comfortable and dovetails well with your service.

One obvious thing that I have noticed in the players that I know is that the lower their will power, the more likely they are to blow up. So, before you start playing, ask yourself if you really do have the will power to be a successful player. If you have any doubts, just don’t play and save yourself an expensive lesson.

#5: Thou Shalt Be A Contrarian
Most sports gamblers that I talk to are amazed when I tell them that Underdogs win more often than Favorites. But it is true. Why is that true? Well, it’s human nature to assume that the status quo will remain the same, and if a team plays well last week, it is easier to assume that they will do the same the following week, especially when the media talking heads barrage the public with this rhetoric all week. Also, it’s human nature to want to back a “winner”. That is why we often have fair weather fans. And the same applies to gambling: people like to bet favorites, and the oddsmakers know this and purposely shade the line higher than the “true line” that the facts suggest.

Bookies and sportsbooks not only make their living off of the vig, but they also feast on the human tendency to bet favorites and the herd mentality that exists. So, if you think like a bookie, instead of the average gambler, and resist the human urge to bet a bunch of chalk, chances are that you will do better than the average meathead.

To give a recent example of how being a contrarian is a smart thing (and profitable), let’s go back to the Tennessee-Florida game at the Swamp in September 2009. Due to the media hype around the grudge between the two schools’ coaches, and line was posted at 30. It takes a true contrarian to stand back and realize that just because there is a grudge between the coaches and Urban Meyer would probably very much like to blow out Tennessee, doesn’t mean that Florida actually is able to do so. Remember, this is the SEC and the talent levels are not over 4 touchdowns different.

But what really got me interested in taking Tennessee was when the non-gamblers kept telling me that they wanted to bet Florida. I have seen this so many times in my life: when the “dumb money” is all on the same side, people who never ever bet regularly are all saying things like “Boy, I’d bet Florida no matter what the line is” or “Florida is going to murder Tennessee”, that’s when I step in and take the other side. As a matter of fact, I took Tennessee with some of my non-gambler buddies, saved the juice, and took great joy in pointing out to them where the ATM machine was when the game wrapped up. Examples like this are few and far between, but I hope you see that the dumb-money crowd is wrong over the long haul. Those huge casinos in Vegas were built because the crowd is wrong, not because they are right. So, when all else is equal, think like a contrarian to the crowd and Take The Points!

One last comment on being a contrarian....I have found that the harder it is to call in a play, the better the play is. Usually, when you call in a "tough-to-play" play, it is some team that is a laughing stock, is a huge dog, and no one on the planet wants to support. In addition, most times this team has had a disastrous last outing, with embarrassing highlights of their ineptitude being played over and over again on ESPN. And then the talking heads all pile on the team. When all of this is happening, that when I start getting interested, as so much can change week-to-week. Just bear in mind, the tougher the play, the better it probably is.

#6: Thou Shalt Not Play Exotics
It should come as no surprise when I tell you that exotics are terrible bets and you should never play them. You can accomplish the exact same thrill and fun simply by playing straight bets and stand much better profitability odds by doing so. Parlays, teasers, reverses…..stay far away from them. They are the devil’s playpen and have ridiculous amounts of juice embedded in them due to the multiplicative effect of coupling 2 Lay-110 to Win-100 plays. You stand very little chance of overcoming the huge vig even if you have the best pick service in the land. Remember that there is a pretty high likelihood that you will lose just playing straight plays, but it is virtually assured that you will not only lose but most probably blow up completely if you get hooked on exotics. Remember that they call them "Teasers" for a very good reason: all teasers look great before you play them.

If you want the absolute best way to overcome the vig in sports gambling then just stick to straight plays exclusively and you will be glad that you did.

#7: Thou Shalt Not “Buy The Hook”
Only losers “buy the hook”, which is parlance for getting an extra half point if you pay double juice. For instance, buying the hook means that instead of playing New England laying 3, you “buy it” down to 2 ½ by laying 120 to win 100. It is tempting to buy the half when it is a 3 point line, but just don’t do it. Bookies have crunched the numbers and figured out that the probability that the game lands on the original line is so low that they will make more on the play when you lose than the exceedingly low chance that it hits the exact original line. If this wasn’t true, then they would not be willing to offer such an option in the first place. In the same vein as exotics, just say “No!” to buying the half and you will come out better in the long haul.

#8: Thou Shalt Not Lose Sight of the Long Term Results
It’s so easy to do….you have a few bad weeks and then all of your discipline goes out the window. But you simply have to understand that you have started the season with a solid money management plan and to change in mid stream can and will be a devastatingly bad move that will certainly move you closer to blowing up.

It is much easier to endure a few bad weeks with a pick service because their track record shows us that they aren't just flipping coins and their methodology has merit and works over the long term. That long term consists of many short terms, some of which have been good weeks and some bad. Just remember that you chose them based on a long-term time horizon of results, so you should judge their current results in the same vein. So, never lose sight of the long term goal and get ready for short term variability in the results. Look, bad weeks are going to happen sooner or later, so don't get all worked up about it. Take it in stride and judge your service over the entirety of a season. If it was really awful, then look for another service next year, but in the meantime, stick to your service through thick and thin, and keep your money management plan intact. If you get to your bankroll limit, shut it down for the year and come back next year. Just do not let a bad streak make you blow up completely.

#9:Thou Shalt Be Methodical and Organized
If you are going to put your best foot forward, you owe it to yourself to being organized and always know what your outstanding action is and what your figure is. I am always shocked by how some players are so unorganized and have no idea how much cash they are down/up or how much action they have on. Some players that I know don’t even write down their action and just take their bookies word for what their figure is!

If this is you, then you need to get your stuff together. One idea is to get a list of all the games each weekend, as many sportsbooks or bookies will provide to you. Use this sheet to assess the lines for each game that you want to play and shop the lines for the games you want to play. It’s a whole lot of information to stay on top of: multiple lines and totals on 50+ college and 16 pro games each weekend can become overwhelming if you aren’t organized. So get organized and do the same routine each week, figure your wins and Losses daily, and always stay on top of your overall situation. It will make you a better player and you won’t make stupid mistakes.

#10: Thou Shalt Not Wager When Under The Influence
I know this is a trite suggestion, but it has burned me in the past, and has really burned some players that I know too. Just don’t do it. Never, I repeat, NEVER BET DRUNK OR HIGH. It is widely known that inebriation in most any form gives us a false sense of confidence and we do stupid things, and it clearly applies to sports gambling. It is so easy to fall into the trap of being talked into a stupid play by your buddies at the sports bar, or you are having a good/bad day, and are trying to give it back/make it worse. Just don’t do it. Will power is perhaps the sports gambler’s must important friend, but it doesn’t apply to just when things are going poorly. Just the same, if you blow what would otherwise be a big (profitable) day by taking Hawaii huge in the super late game when you are three sheets to the wind, it will just kill you long term. Even if you say “well, I still pushed today!” my response will be that you need winning days to offset the inevitable losing days, and if you blow your good days with reckless drunken plays, then you are destined to blow up, no question about it. And you probably should just quit right now. It defeats the whole purpose of playing if you don’t have a gameplan with risk management in place and STICK TO IT, no matter how well you are doing. GUI (Gambling Under the Influence) should be a jailable offense just like DUI. Just don’t do it.www.prudentgambler.com

Why Most Sports Gamblers Lose

2010-02-19T13:28:00.001-06:00

Image by tuxthepenguin84 via Flickr

It's a widely known concept that the vast majority of sports bettors are going to lose money. The most popular is that 90-percent of sports gamblers will lose money over the course of the year, but that doesn't stop people from wagering on sports. When those bettors eventually go broke and cannot wager any more, there's always somebody else waiting to take their place in line.

Money Management

The number one reason most sports gamblers lose isn't because of poor picks, but instead is because of poor money management. There are far more bettors who can pick winners than there are who can make money, and money management is the key.
Betting $50 on one game and $500 on another is a sure way to find yourself separated from your cash in the long run, just as betting 50-percent of your bankroll on one game will ultimately lead disaster. A sports bettor may win a few games when betting more than they should, but eventually the loss, or losses, will come and the bettors ends up in trouble.

Doubling up after wins or losses is another recipe for disaster, and is a common mistake many bettors make, including those who have been betting for many years.

If you've ever read books on sports betting, you'll find that nearly every one has at least one chapter devoted to money management and that isn't because authors enjoy writing about it. It's because it is that important.

A good place to start on money management is my article Money Management for Sports Bettors.

Betting on the Wrong Events

It's no secret that football and basketball are the two sports that receive the majority of the betting dollars, just as it's no secret that most long-time sports bettors will say those are probably the two toughest sports to show a long-term profit in.
The sport of choice for most professional gamblers is baseball, which happens to rank well below the top two sports in the amount of money received. Hockey is another sport that many long-time bettors believe can give the sports gambler an advantage over the sportsbook, but hockey is bet less than even baseball.

A sports bettors doesn't have to particularly like baseball or hockey. As long as they like money, those are two sports that should be followed, or at least find somebody who is a good baseball or hockey handicapper and follow their plays.

Lack of Knowledge

Most sports bettors know just enough to make them dangerous, as there is a great deal of difference between being knowledgeable in the NFL and being knowledgeable in NFL betting. Being able to name the starting offensive line for the Dallas Cowboys isn't likely to help a person win a bet.
What many sports bettors don't realize is that they're actually competing against other bettors who spend countless hours on handicapping, studying trends, injuries, and betting angles.

If you don't have the time to study the games try to find somebody who does, whether it be on a posting forum, a reputable sports service, etc., but don't assume you know more than everyone else.

There is the old joke of a sports bettor who loses week after week, and finally, his bookie starts to feel sorry for the guy and suggests that he might want to try betting hockey.

"Hockey! I don't know anything about hockey!"

Betting Too Many TV Games

There are a large number of sports bettors who feel if a game is televised, it's their duty to have a wager on the contest. While this didn't create much of a problem years ago, there are so many games televised now, that bettors can easily have seven or eight wagers on a single night, and even more on the weekend.
Typically, the lines are the sharpest on televised games, as the oddsmakers and sportsbooks realize that those games will be bet the heaviest.

If you have to have a wager on every televised game, those bets should be much smaller than your typical bets, somewhere around one-fourth of the amount. I've seen a number of solid handicappers lose money over time by betting the same amount, if not more, on games that are televised than they do on games they honestly believe are good bets.

Casino Betting

This is a relatively new one for sports bettors to deal with, as many online sportsbooks now have casino-style gaming, which is too much for some sports bettors, including some very good sports bettors, to walk away from. I've known of more than one solid sports bettor who will generally show a profit each week, but give that money back, plus a little extra, playing the casino games their sportsbooks offer.
There's always the legitimacy of online casinos to worry about, as well. It's one thing to be at a blackjack table and see the dealer draw a 5 to their 16 to beat your 20, but it's a bit different when it takes place online.

It's easy to see the allure, as why try to grind out a small profit betting sports, when you can hit a Royal Flush playing video poker and quickly win $1,000 or $4,000?

If this is a problem for you try e-mailing the sportsbook and ask them to block you from their casino. Believe me, they understand, and I have heard of quite a few of them that will actually do it.

There isn't any one key to becoming a winning sports bettor, but those who practice money management, put in some time, and practice discipline, are generally a step above the majority of bettors.

Unlawful Internet Gaming Enforcement Act,

2010-02-09T21:12:00.002-06:00

Image by chad davis via Flickr

Most of you have been affected by the downturn in the economy over the past five months. Even if you were not directly affected, I'm sure you know someone who has either lost their house, lost all their equity in their house, or has lost a significant amount of money in their savings. What I'm talking about is the American sub-prime housing fiasco, which is quickly becoming a worldwide financial concern.

For those who are not financial junkies like myself, let me give the brief version of what has happened in the financial markets in recent years. As usual, it has a lot to do with greed, subterfuge, and a lack of foresight.

In 2003, banks and financial institutions realized that the only way to keep the housing bubble inflated was to keep people buying homes. The problem was that most of the eligible market had already been serviced in the previous few years and the market was threatening to dry up.

Luckily, they identified a huge untapped market of potential home buyers: people who could not afford homes. These people would never get a bank loan under normal circumstances, but these were not normal circumstances because the banks had a great plan. They would just hope that the good times would never end.

Taking all of the best parts of "historically low interest rates" and combining that with the traditional "low payments for three years" with just a dash of "don't worry, we'll figure that out when it happens", they created a new financial tool called the subprime mortgage. This deal allowed home buyers to pay only two percent interest on the first few years of a mortgage with the interest rate jumping to a variable rate afterwards.

It's amazing they never thought of this before. All they had to do was figure out a way to convince people with poor credit to lock themselves into longterm financial quagmires. So it was like shooting fish in a barrel.

Suddenly, people who would normally have been renting were able to buy a starter home. People who should have been in the $200,000 market were buying $400,000 homes. And the wannabes started buying McMansions when they should have been living comfortably in a house half the size. These loans started to get extremely popular because when the friends of these new home owners stopped by for a visit, they were amazed by the grandeur and the low payment so the friends got into the market too and bought using subprime rates. And so on and so on.

What wasn't explained to these people (or what they conveniently ignored) was that your mortgage payment - for the first few years anyway - mainly consists of paying down your interest. And if the current rates are "historically low", then they can only go up. Once they passed the subprime phase of their mortgage, they were going to be on the hook for mortgage payments that were up to 50 percent higher than they had been paying before. If they were having trouble coming up with $1,500 per month, how were they going to find another $600?

Now, you might ask why the banks would take on such risk. Good question.

Answer: They didn't care because somebody had figured out a way to make even more money off the situation.

Enter the wolves. Wall Street saw this this situation and went to work selling snowballs to the Eskimos. They started pooling all these subprime loans together and selling them off to banks and other financial institutions. The idea was that as long as the real estate market was thriving, there would always be value in holding these securities. But the real estate market could only keep thriving because of these ridiculous loans.

See the circle?

In essence, it was a glorified pyramid scheme perpetrated by Wall Street and kept hidden by low interest rates. And nobody cared because it was one of those great moments in history when willful blindness of the inevitable future allowed everybody to enjoy the moment. People with poor credit got their once-in-a-lifetime chance to live in a nice house. Wall Street got rich. For a short while, everybody was winning. But it just couldn't last.

It should never have happened at all. After Enron. After the junk bond debacle of the 80's. It should have been stopped before it even got started. Because of this fraud, the US economy is now in crisis mode. The world economy is fighting not to get dragged down. This situation has more parallels with the global depression of the 30's than any of the relatively minor recessions of recent decades.

So how could the Wall Street clowns pull this off again? How could they dupe the regulators, the law, and the politicians one more time? Well, it's pretty easy to rip people off when no one is watching the store. Or in this case, wasting their time worrying about online gambling. There, I said it.

What was the Department of Justice, the Treasury Department, and the SEC doing for the last three years? They were Spending their time and effort stopping people from playing online poker in the privacy of their own homes.

Rather than nailing down and eliminating the fatal flaw in the subprime mortgage bubble, the SEC and the Treasury Department were investigating UK financial institutions that helped online gaming companies legally list on the UK stock exchange.

Rather than investigate the biggest Ponzi scheme ever perpetrated upon the American public, the DOJ was setting up sting operations in airports to nab the executives of publicly traded firms which happened to be enabling Americans to play poker on their home computers. They were going after companies like Yahoo, Google and Microsoft which accepted money from these companies for advertising.

How about the politicians? What were your elected representatives doing?

Well, they were passing the Unlawful Internet Gaming Enforcement Act, what Barney Frank calls the "stupidest law ever passed". This law requires the banks to basically monitor every single transaction in the United States to make sure money is not going to an offshore gaming company.

I can hear the siren call: "For God's sake! Stop the gamblers from spending their expendable income. They are going to need that cash once their mortgage payments double!"

Since October 2006, when the subprime guys were at the climax of their heist, the politicians and regulators from the Treasury, the banking industry and the Department of Justice have been locked in a room trying to figure out how to police the Internet. These regulations were supposed to come out in June, then got pushed back to October, and then during the last round were pushed back even further after the banking industry balked at how much effort and work it was going to take to enforce the law.

That's a lot of time and effort spent to restrict gambling. And how much time did they spend trying to control unfettered greed from spinning your country into a recession? For those losing your home, you don't want to know.

But they got what they wanted, I guess. They effectively stopped people from playing at Party Poker and probably halved the $7 billion US online gaming industry. Meanwhile the politicians are debating the pros and cons of a $150 BILLION economic stimulus package to keep the U.S. out of a recession that might have already started. But at least you can't go blowing your money on gambling anymore. The poor guy who loves to play poker really got the shaft. He now has fewer places to play and also lost $100,000 of equity in his home.

I'm not even going to get into the psychology that makes someone believe that allowing an adult to gamble $100 of his own money is wrong, but allowing financial institutions to effectively wager billions of dollars on interest rate hikes is morally and ethically kosher.

And what would this situation be without a little irony?

One of the big accomplishments in the war against gambling was when Bill Frist was able to make an baseless association between online gambling and terrorism and use that to get the UIGEA bill passed as part of the Safe Ports Act. Alright. Nice political maneuver.

An offshoots of this subprime fiasco is that major American financial institutions have now been forced to accept significant foreign investment. So Citibank's major shareholder is now a Saudi Prince. Merril Lynch had to accept billions in financial aid from "sovereign foreign investors." Oil money. In short, two of the most venerable U.S. financial institutions are being bailed out by the Middle East.

I'm in no way saying these investors are terrorists (that's a trick employed by politicians and the DOJ) but I am saying this crisis has opened U.S. corporations to more influence from abroad - Influence that might not be in line with what is in the best interest the average American.

Do you feel safer now?

They also found another novel solution to another problem that didn't exist. Remember that hypothetical child who would steal daddy's credit card and gamble all night with it? Regardless of the fact that this has never been an issue, it is still a regular go-to argument for anti-gambling crusaders. Well, Citibank has reported that their consumer debt risk is at its worst level in years because people are so leveraged. That means even if that child got daddy's credit card, it's completely maxed out and worthless. Problem solved.

How about a little more irony...

The politicians and DOJ had fun characterizing the offshore gaming companies as illegal Pirates of the Caribbean. However, the Caribbean nation of Antigua and Barbuda has argued successfully in front of the World Trade Organization (WTO) that the U.S. has not equally applied its gaming laws, in contravention of its commitment to the WTO. In December as a form of restitution, Antigua was awarded the right to legally sell pirated copies of copyrighted material owned by U.S. companies. Music, movies and software are some of the stuff Antigua is now allowed to sell online. And cheap too. So your government's solution worked. They eliminated the illegal pirates by making pirating legal. That sucking sound is more money being flushed out of the American economy.

But hey, they sure kicked the online gaming industry's ass, didn't they?

The final irony has yet to reveal itself, but I can see it coming...

After that economic stimulus package goes into effect, the government is going to need to find a way to pay for it. Can you think of any industries that are begging to be introduced and regulated in America and could generate significant amounts of tax revenue?

I can. Imagine the irony if the one industry the government so disastrously distracted itself trying to fight ended up being the industry they ultimately embrace in their scramble to right their ship.

Learn to identify steam moves

2010-02-05T13:06:00.001-06:00

Following line moves is one of the keys to success in sports betting. The importance of monitoring fluctuations of the pointspread has become evident in recent years as most of the major sports betting portals have installed some kind of live odds screen for their site visitors.

There are two types of players who move the lines. First, there are the public or recreational bettors. These players tend to bet on favorites and 'overs', especially in football. Then you have the professional bettors – often labeled 'wiseguys' – and the syndicate players. This second group proves to be most important when examining line moves. When the pros move a number, it's often a good idea to jump on board – as long as it's not too late.

A "steam move" is the phrase used to describe the line change when a large amount of money goes down on one side of a game in a short period of time. This is usually due to the wiseguys making a move on a particular side. After these players choose their side, the bookmakers usually act accordingly by moving their number in an attempt to make the other side look more attractive to other bettors.

"You are going to make as big of a move as you can possibly make because that game is probably not going back to that original number," said Doc from Rio, the head oddsmaker for Skybook, of the line move that comes as a result of a limit bet from a professional player. "Certain guys just know where the line is going. Not that they win or lose every time; but they are right more often than they are wrong."

Steam moves can happen at any time during the week in football. If an opening number is considered a weak one by the pros, they will attack it immediately and the line will shift early in the week. In some cases the wiseguys wait for the public to bet the number to a certain point before making their move. Public money takes some time to move the line. The pros get it moving in a hurry.

"Usually professional money moves (the line) around town pretty quickly," said Jay Kornegay, executive director of race and sports for the Las Vegas Hilton. "All the sudden – boom, boom, boom, boom – all the sixes are gone."

"The public money takes a little longer," Kornegay adds. "It accumulates. Maybe because it is just so spread out. Maybe it’s (because) we don’t respect their opinion as much. It is very rare that the public will bet an underdog. They are always going to bet the better team. So you can always kind of tell by what teams are involved."

Due to the advent of the Don Best Odds Service, which is used by most sportsbooks in the industry; bookies can keep a "real time" tab on the action at competing shops. If they see a game move 1/2-point in the same direction at a couple of books in a matter of minutes, they will often chose to move their number before they risk a limit bet by a professional or syndicate player on the same game. As Doc from Rio mentioned, the pros are usually on the right side.

Public money tends to come in the day before a game or on the day of the game. Professionals take the line when it suits them best. Line moves that take place early in the week are almost exclusively a result of "smart action." In addition, line moves of more than a 1/2-point (if no injuries or weather situations are involved) are usually a result of the wiseguys.

"The best way to know (if a line move is a steam move) is to check the opening line against the game day line," Erick Vill, head linesmaker for Millennium Sports, commented. "If a line moved only 1/2-point, that was due to the (public) action of the book. But if the line moved one or more points, then you know the big syndicate player played it. The big moves in the NFL usually take place before Sunday."

Monitoring line moves is not an exact science. Once the line has moved, all of the value could already be gone from that particular number – especially if everyone in the industry already made the change.

Betting syndicates also manipulate the Don Best service in order to trick the books into moving to numbers that best suit them.

Many books have lower limits early in the week since that is the time frame when the professionals tend to do most of their damage. Some pro players might make limit bets (at the lower limits) on the favorite at a couple of shops that are on the Don Best screen early in the week. This will sometimes cause a panic in the industry where everyone will move their numbers thinking that's the side the wiseguys are on that week.

Later in the week when the books raise their limits, these same bettors will wager heavy action on the opposite side until it is moved back to the original number. They will then take a couple small bets on the underdog at the initial pointspread that will cancel out their original bets. Therefore, they just manipulated the books into giving them the number they always wanted without taking any monetary risk (at the original line). This is called a "fake move" and can be dangerous for the books.

"It's just something you have to follow and use your instincts," said Kornegay. "Watching these line movements over time, you can pretty much tell where the line is going and who is betting it."

SportsBooks & Line Shopping

2010-02-03T14:32:00.000-06:00

Expert Sports Picks, Sports Handicapping Systems, Free Sports Picks & Tips
PRO INFO SPORTS clients are strongly urged to have more than one sports gaming source in order to shop for line value. This simply means taking the most advantageous position on every sports investment opportunity. Today there are numerous offshore sportsbooks, providing the opportunity to obtain multiple sports odds, and thus increasing the potential for a positive return.
Posted pointspreads can differ by a point or more on the same game, because lines are intended to evenly divide the wagering public's opinion and, thus, their money. When a sportbook begins to receive more money on one side of a game than the other, they will likely move their line; however, due to the fact that there are so many gambling sportsbooks now, some houses may not receive as big of an imbalance of money as others, resulting in different lines for the same game.
Simple mathematics can easily establish the importance of "line shopping" or finding the best sports odds, as it can ultimately provide the difference between a profitable or losing week, month, or season. Random selections on 100 games should theoretically yield 50 wins and 50 losses. Assume for demonstration's sake that 1 unit was wagered on each game. The result would be a net loss of 5 units due to the "vigorish" service fee taken by sportsbooks on each wager; however, if just FIVE of the defeats were within a point or two of the wagered line, and could have been won simply by finding a better pointspread, the result would be a 55-45 record and a net profit of 5.5 units. This is a reversal of more than 10 units on just a small number of events and with very conservative wagering. Even a half-point can be the difference between a win and a push or a push and a loss. Extrapolate the numbers over the course of a season with a more aggressive money management strategy and the gains are compounded dramatically.
Checking sports gambling odds at several sportsbooks is an absolute necessity and can be done much more quickly now than before the days of the Internet. PRO INFO SPORTS provides multiple live lines on our Sports Handicapping Services - Sports Odds, Scores & News page.
As with any industry there are unscrupulous types to watch out for. Most of the offshore countries where sportsbooks are located require certain terms be met before they grant a license. Also, some countries are now beginning to legalize and regulate online gaming, the same as they do for other industries. Take your time in deciding who you will sign up with. Do your research on the various sportsbooks rules, promos, etc., to see if they meet your needs, and keep up to date with the latest sportsbook news.
Once your sportsbook accounts are funded, you are ready to find the best sports odds and put our handicapping and money management strategies to work for a rewarding and enjoyable sports investment venture with our Sports Handicapping Services

NBA ATS Countdown Issue One 2010

2010-01-22T19:14:00.000-06:00

elcome to our NBA ATS Countdown Issue 1 for the 2010-11 NBA Season. The Countdown takes a look at the league’s top five teams against the spread. As we do in most issues we not only look at ATS situations for the NBA’s top five ATS teams we also provide a key angle for each team. Here are the league’s top five take a look…

Atlanta leads the way with a 26-13 ATS mark on the season for 66.7 percent winners overall. They have used the home court advantage to grab the lead posting a record of 14-6 ATS for 70 percent winners on their home floor which is best in the NBA. The Hawks rank fourth in the league on the road with a 12-7 ATS record for 63.2 percent. Look for the Hawks after suffering a straight up loss in their last game as they are 10-3 ATS for 76.9 percent winners in their next outing. Key Angle: Atlanta is 9-2 ATS (81.8 percent) versus Atlantic Division opponents.

Charlotte checks in at second place with an overall record of 24-14 ATS for 63.2 percent winners on the year. Charlotte has been strong on their home floor with a record of 13-7 ATS for 65 percent winners. The Bobcats weakness is like that of other teams although they do have a winning record on the road with an 11-7 ATS mark for 61.1 percent winners which are good enough for fifth place on the highway. The Bobcats believe success breeds success at least where the spread is concerned because they are 13-5 ATS for 72.2 percent winners coming in off a straight up win in their last game. Key Angle: Charlotte is 8-2 ATS when playing with no rest.

Oklahoma City comes in ranked number three in the league with a record of 24-16 ATS for 60 percent winners overall. The Thunder are the reverse of the normal home/road dichotomy because they are nothing special at home going 11-10 ATS for 52.4 percent which ranks 16th in the league but an amazing 13-6 ATS for 68.4 percent winners on the road. Their strong performance on the highway is what propelled them into the top five overall. Watch for the Thunder coming off a straight up loss because they have posted a record of 15-3 ATS for 83.3 percent winners in this situation. Key Angle: Oklahoma City is 14-2 ATS when coming off an against the spread loss in their last game which is good for 87.5 percent winners.

Utah holds down the fourth position in our countdown with a record of 23-16 ATS for 59 percent winners on the 2010 season. Utah has used a strong home court to gain entry into our NBA ATS Countdown with a record of 14-7-1 ATS for 66.7 percent winners in Salt Lake City. The road has not been as kind to the Jazz with a 9-9-1 ATS record on the highway this season which is good for 16th in the NBA on the road. We want to play the Over when Utah is installed as an underdog off a game in which they shot at least 50 percent from the field; they are 25-7 over in their next game. Key Angle: Play On the Utah Jazz at home not a favorite of more than 20 points with a total less than 212 off a home game where they allowed 50 or more percent from the field. The Jazz are 13-1 ATS in this situation.

Memphis holds the final position in our countdown with the number 5 spot and a record of 22-17 ATS for 56.4 percent winners this season. The Grizzlies used a 12-7 ATS mark at home for 63.2 percent winners which helped them hold on to the last slot in our countdown. Memphis is a .500 ATS team on the highway posting a record of 10-10 ATS for 50 percent and the number 14 spot in the league. Their top ATS angle is to play on them when coming off a straight up win in their last game as they are 15-5 ATS for 75 percent winners in their next contest. Look for them to go over the posted total when coming off an ATS win in their last game with a 15-6 over record their last 21 in that situation. Key Angle: Memphis is 12-4-1 over when installed as a road underdog their last 17 in that situation.

NBA ATS Countdown Angle:

In each issue of our NBA ATS Countdown we will provide a system or angle to be on the lookout for in the future. Here is this issue’s NBA Angle: Play ON the Orlando Magic off a road loss in which Dwight Howard had a double-dozen which means he had at least twelve points and twelve rebounds. The Magic are an outstanding 28-0-2 ATS in this situation.
This concludes the first issue of our 2010-11 NBA ATS Countdown we hope you find this information useful and we will see you back here in two weeks with our next report. Please remember to be safe and as always good luck.

So you wanna be a handicapper?

2010-01-14T13:12:00.000-06:00

So you wanna be a handicapper? You think you have what it takes to go through the grind and beat the almighty 52.38%? Then read on!

This article isn't going to talk a lot about what a professional sports handicapper has to endure, not so much about how to become one, but we'll cover that a bit as well.

For starters, you will need to make yourself a somewhat attractive trustworthy looking website. Advertise your true records on the site. Nobody believes false claims of 70-90% winners. Don't bother using the word lock either, because today's internet sports bettor has become more astute and knows there is no such thing. Lastly, don't bother with cheap lines like "I've got inside information." Be legit as the cream always rises to the top. If you do things right in the first place, it will all come back to reward you in the end.

Next, you will need to establish your worth as a handicapper. If you were to go tell any major service or portal on the web that you hit 60% in all sports, your probably going to get ignored. We've all heard it before and we'll hear it again, too many times in fact.

Your best bet in getting started is to fork out the loot to get monitored at one of the web's better sports monitors. This means entering your picks daily at sites such as bigguy.com, Trackpicks.com, Sportsmonitor.com, FreeSportsMonitor.com or NevadaSportsMonitor.com. You are going to need to prove yourself before anybody believes your claims. That's just the way it is.

After you've spent time proving yourself and assuming that you have a nice website, contact some major sports handicapping information portals on the web and ask them if you can have a page to give away free picks on a daily basis. This will give you some cheap exposure. In exchange, their going to probably ask you to put their banner or link on their homepage. Keep in mind that their established and your not, so this is a very fair deal for you even if your not on their homepage.

Assuming you've gotten some exposure from the sports monitors and portals, offer to give out your picks for a free week. This is a great hook to get guys in the door. Keep their email addresses in a file and market to them from time to time. Don't expect them all to buy from you, even if your hot. Something we haven't gotten to yet is that this is a very competitive market and it's not easy to make a buck.

Provide analysis with your picks. Some say it doesn't matter as long as your producing winners but by providing analysis with your selections, it proves that your legit and did your homework. Oh, and speaking of homework? Expect to handicap 12 hours a day or more if you want to be a long term winner. It's surely a marathon, not a sprint and it's one hell of a grind.

Have a family? You should probably pass on this career. It's not fair to them. Don't you dare bring kids into this world and then ignore them. No dollar is worth that, especially this dollar because it's one that you'll be chasing. Only a few big names in the industry have dollars thrown at them and it's because of a ton of marketing and years of hard

The Real Value is in Specializing

2010-01-11T15:21:00.000-06:00

Do you ever wonder when you're in a Las Vegas sports book why the limits are so low on certain bets while the house will let you bet anything you want on others? Why are NFL side action wager limits so much higher than totals? Now about NBA side selection limits as opposed to WNBA totals? How about MLB sides as opposed to Tennis wagers? It all comes down to how comfortable the sports book manager is about the numbers he sets. With everyone and their brother knowing all about each NFL team the book is more than willing to let you lay whatever you like on a side play knowing the house has a well informed opinion. But ask the man on the street about the Arena Football League and he likely couldn't tell you the number of teams in the league.
Most professional sports bettors that I know here in Las Vegas specialize in a certain type or sport of preference. There are guys who do nothing but bet NFL totals and when they have an opinion I listen. There are others who make their money by betting the Arena Football League and if they recommend a play I'm on it. Still others specialize in NBA quarter bets and make a living doing so. While the limits are much lower the edge is far greater. That's why the books have lower limits on these type of bets, because they know they can be beaten. In fact, many books in town won't take certain action because they know they will only get wise guy money. They would much rather have action on NFL sides where the wise guy money is balanced with general public perception.
So in order to maximize profit you should concentrate on minor sports or segments of the major sports that have an edge. Next time you're in a Las Vegas casino go up and ask about the wagering limits for each segment of the betting board, that will tell you what you should be spending your time handicapping.

How to bet college basketball

2010-01-11T15:19:00.000-06:00

Basketball fans love the big name teams. Duke, UConn, North Carolina, Arizona. But you’ll notice successful handicappers don’t always give out top plays on the most recognizable schools. That’s because there’s value all over the board when wagering on college hoops, and it’s not always on the marquee teams.
This is in stark contrast to what happens during the college basketball season. There are dozens of games each day and even up to 70-85 games on a college basketball Saturday. With so many games, it’s much more difficult for linemakers to make accurate numbers on every game. There will be mistakes and soft lines, which are the handicapper's best friend.
And sometimes you may not even recognize the schools or conferences. One week I released my Southern Conference Game of the Year on Davidson. It was a great spot for a play on the visitors and – in my judgment – a very bad number. Davidson had a well-balanced team that matched up fairly well with a good Georgia Southern squad. I looked at a line of about one or two points, but Davidson was a plus-8 1/2 road ‘dog.
This brings into play the importance of examining a team’s schedule carefully. Davidson had a losing record in part because of its tough schedule, playing Texas Tech, North Carolina, Georgetown, Seton Hall and Duke – all but one on the road! The stats may have suggested that Davidson gives up a lot of points, but this was deceptive because of this awfully difficult schedule.
The game was an easy cover, as Davidson outrebounded Georgia Southern 39-28, trailed by two at the half on the way to a 62-60 defeat, but an easy cover. Davidson might have even won the game if they hadn’t missed nine free throws. Still, my clients and I didn’t need them to win – just cover the +8 1/2-points.
The moral is: Don’t ignore small, no-name schools and examine schedules carefully. Wins and losses, straight up and against the spread, are found when you read between the lines.
Conference play
This is when the second season for handicappers begins. Once college basketball conference play goes into full swing, it allows bettors to gauge statistics and match-ups.
Many teams schedule a string of non-conference cupcake games early in the season in order to run up big scores and easy victories. However, they could then falter quickly as they step up in competition during January and February conference play. Virginia and Hofstra come to mind this past season - two teams that got off to strong starts but struggled as the competition got better.
Other times, teams schedule difficult non-conference games early in the season - and sometimes take serious beatings - to toughen them up for conference action. Jon Chaney’s Temple Owls have done this often over the last decade. It’s essential for handicappers to utilize power ratings and carefully check records versus quality opponents.
Another factor to take into account when ‘capping conference play is that teams will play each other more than once. It’s important to look back on any recent meetings and see what took place. If one team blew out another, look at the box score to see why. And ask questions. Did one team dominate the glass? Or did the opponent simply have a bad shooting game?
This can mean the rematch will be equally one-sided, or it could mean the team that lost badly is out for revenge. Looking back at past years helps as well. You can find a trend where each team rolls over another on its home court, which happened for several years with ACC rivals Duke and Maryland. Or you might find that one team has the other’s number and consistently gets the cover whether they’re at home or at the other team’s place.
Check conference standings, too. Conference games likely have greater importance for teams that can’t afford any more losses. In addition, you can find teams that have already fallen out of the conference race, which means they might begin packing it in, especially on the road against stronger conference foes.
Conference play offers a more level playing field than the early season. For those with an eye for it, the "second season" can assist an astute handicapper with more angles than earlier non-conference action.
Tourney tips
Many times during the season and even in some conference tournament games, you can find teams that are less interested in wanting to play hard. That is, they know they’re going to get hammered or they’ve slumped so badly down the stretch that they realize they have no shot at going anywhere in tournament play.
In short, they’ve given up on the season or on a particular game where they are a big underdog and know their season is over. This is far less likely in late March, however, as good teams keep winning and are motivated to play all out.
Road play: It’s important to check home/road play for college hoop teams. This is also something to keep up on from the Sweet 16 on. Some teams have a noticeable weakness on the road, such as poor road defense, or they consistently fail to cover when away from home. Most college tournament games this time of year are neutral courts, but it can be helpful to check both teams’ road play when analyzing individual match-ups to get a sense of how they play away from home.
Non-conference competition: Some helpful sports wagering web sites have this broken down in easy-to-read columns. On the other hand, you must take this a step further, too - examine next who those non-conference games were against. If they were against all small-school teams with poor records, then it’s not as helpful as if they played against top-notch non-conference opponents. Illinois faced Gonzaga, Cincinnati, Georgetown, Wake Forest and at Arkansas last year and whipped them all by double digits.
Location: Sometimes teams luck out by getting placed in a tourney bracket that is close to home. North Carolina, for instance, opened the tourney last year playing in Charlotte against Oakland (Mich.) and Iowa State, two teams that traveled a long way. The Tar Heels won by 28 and 27 points, respectively. A close location can mean more fans in the stands cheering for a particular team, giving it a slight edge.
Their role as a ‘dog?: Check how some teams fared as an underdog during the season. Two teams that have already been knocked out of tournament play are Cincinnati and Mississippi State, clubs that combined to go 1-9 SU, 3-7 ATS as a ‘dog this season. When the pressure is on against top-notch teams, some clubs simply can’t step it up.
History: Has this team been here before? Some teams are new to the Sweet 16 and beyond. Check their recent history. Is this a surprise team that came out of nowhere to get this far? Does their starting five have any experience at all in late March tournament play? Digging into various details can help turn a profit during March Madness.

NCAA Hoops – Too Much To Handle?

2010-01-11T15:16:00.000-06:00

With College hoops kicking off, it’s time to once again examine what goes into handicapping this sometimes overwhelming sport.College basketball is considered by many to be one of the toughest sports to handicap while at the same time, it is also considered to be one of the most profitable.
With 225 Division I lined teams, there are usually in upwards of 80-90 games to decipher on any given Saturday during the season. The average sports bettor cannot possibly handicap all of these games especially when the lines aren’t released until the prior afternoon.
The volume of possible action is what makes churning out consistent profits so difficult to some. However, with that many possibilities on the board, some of those lines are very soft since the linesmakers also find it difficult to throw good numbers on all of those games. Finding those teams with hidden value is what you want to strive for and I will give you a few tips on how to do just that.
Stats, Stats, Stats
In my opinion, the most important component of handicapping is looking at the statistical numbers. A lot of cappers use stats as a secondary tool and there is absolutely nothing wrong with it if that is how they are able to pick more winners. I do use situational handicapping in certain areas but not as much in college sports as I do in professional sports. I feel stats are very important when handicapping college hoops because they are real and genuine even though parity isn’t very prevalent.
These college kids go out and play hard for their team every game, not just for themselves because they are in a contract year or looking for special bonuses. When looking at the stats, you have to make sure you are looking at the right stats and also looking at them correctly. Simply looking at points scored for and against can be very misleading at times.
For example, Texas A&M led the country in scoring margin at one point last season at +34.8 ppg. A novice might see that and say that the Aggies are playing great basketball right now but not notice that they have played the weakest schedule in the country that includes wins against NAIA Texas of the Permian Basin and Division III Trinity. If stats such as this are being used in your analysis, either factor in schedule strength or use only comparable Division I numbers.
One stat that can be used no matter who the competition is free throw shooting. The basket is 15 feet away no matter who the opponent is. The numbers might be slightly skewed based on pressure situations for some teams and not others but for the most part, they are a good indicator.
Assist to turnover ratio is another one of most important stats to look at. The average A/TO ratio is around 0.950 in college basketball so anything above 1.20 is what I consider outstanding. Early in the season, you will see a lot of inflated numbers due to the soft schedules a lot of teams play. Once the conference season starts, these numbers will decline based on the more difficult schedules.
Keying in on the correct stats and looking at them the right way can give you some great additional insight.
Throw out the Trash
This time of the year with most teams still playing their non-conference schedules, there are a lot of real garbage games on the board. I define garbage games as those with favorites of 20 points or more. Even when conference season begins, these high lined games will still be around.
For a team to be favored by this many points means one of two things. The chalk is a superior team and should be able to name the score or the underdog is so bad that they have no business even hanging around in this contest. Laying 20 or more points can give the average bettor some high level stress as they try to avoid the dreaded backdoor cover. Grabbing 20 or more points is just as gut wrenching as you are hoping your longshot can stay within the number. It’s simply too much to handle since luck comes into play in a number of these outcomes.
Last season, there were lines of 20 or more points in 68 games that involved the major conference teams. The favorite covered the number 36 times while the dog cashed 32 times, making it pretty much a wash. On occasion, an edge can be found in these games whether its injury, a look ahead situation or a hangover but they are few and far between and my advice is to just not even bother wasting your valuable time. There are better numbers out there for you to find.
Two years ago, Duke was favored by 20 or more points eleven times, the most out of any team in the country. They went 5-6 ATS in those games and the kicker is that in seven of them, the final margin was within 4.5 points of the closing line. Move along please…
Injury Reports
Take a look at injury reports each and every day. As a hypothetical example, ESPN will give you information on Georgia Tech’s leading scorer being out for their next game but they won’t tell you that the leading scorer for Rider is out as well. While injury reports list actual players injuries, they also list eligibility information as well.
Early in the year is especially important since it is final exam time for the first semester. A number of players have been sitting out through their team’s first few games in order to get their academics in order. Players may also be sitting out the first semester because of NCAA regulations with transfers. These reports will usually tell you when a player will become eligible. Late December is the most common time that players return to action after sitting out the fall semester so keep an eye on those reports for the next couple weeks. Again, you will hear from the media about the big name schools but it’s the smaller schools that you want to keep a keen eye on. Finding players involved in games that are going to be out or just coming back are the ones you can concentrate on and handicap more in depth. You may think you have a strong play going only to find out that a key player will not be in action. If that’s the case, out the window it goes.
Power Ratings
There are numerous sources available where you can get a set of power ratings. Better yet, compile your own set that you can tweak and play with until you have come up with a solid bunch of rankings. Comparing your numbers against the lines can give you some very good parameters to use to try and filter out some of the games you are looking to handicap.
If your ratings make Illinois a 16-point favorite over Oregon and the line is –17, you might want to disregard that game and move on. Compiling your own set of power ratings will take some time to find the greatest accuracy but it will pay off in the long run. Setting up your numbers can be as easy as using different power ratings from other places or they can be more complex incorporating stats, schedules and other useful tools.
For example, my numbers employ five sets of national ratings along with stats such as shooting percentages, rebounding margins and assist/turnover ratios. I also incorporate strength of schedule numbers, which can be a valuable tool that is often overlooked. Ideally, if there is a Saturday card with 80 lined games, you want to knock that down by about 75% to get down to 20 games. This will give you a lot of better options and you can free up valuable time to handicap those games more in depth to come up with some strong winners.

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