FOREX NEWS

Forex: EUR/USD higher while the dollar drops following Bernanke speech

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 07:29:00 +0000

The EUR and commodities rose following a speech by Fed chairman, Ben Bernanke. The pair posted an intraday high of 1.4968 before settling to current levels around 1.4960. The pair is considered bearish and finds support at 1.4930 and resistance at 1.5016.

In New York, Ben Bernanke maintained that the US central bank was commited to both job growth and price stability while monitoring the declining dollar closely. However, he pointed to a weak economy for continuing to keep interests at historic lows for an “extended period.” He added: “we are attentive to implications of changes in the value of the dollar and will continue to formulate policy to guard against risks to our dual mandate to foster both maximum employment and price stability.”

Mr Bernanke also acknowledged that the weak dollar benefited commodity prices with investors looking for safe havens. Hence the dollar has “retraced its gains.” The dollar has dropped around 14% against a number of currencies since March.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD (Nov 17 at 07:28 GMT)

1.4961/65 (-0.06%)

H 1.4999 L 1.4933

S3	S2	S1	R1	R2	R3
1.4882	1.4920	1.4957	1.4975	1.5012	1.5050

[?]Trend Index	[?]OB/OS Index
Strongly Bullish	Neutral
Data updated on Nov 17 at 07:25 (15-minute timeframe)

[ View EUR/USD Technical Studies ]

Asian Shares Mixed, Lag Wall Street But Miners Rise Again

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 07:27:00 +0000

SINGAPORE -- Most Asian share markets were only a little higher Tuesday despite a strong performance on Wall Street and even as mining stocks found buyers, with some broad fatigue setting in after recent gains.

Japan's Nikkei 225 was up 0.3% with Australia's S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% and South Korea's Kospi Composite up 0.2%. New Zealand's NZX-50 was down 0.3%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were flat in screen trade.

The region was not mirroring the size of gains in the U.S., where all three major indexes rose to new closing highs on the year, helped by energy and materials firms.

The continued decline in the U.S. dollar - and consequent strength in Asia-Pacific domestic currencies - was causing some concern for exporter-related stocks. "Most exporters may underperform the market," said Yukio Takahashi, a market analyst at Mizuho Securities in Tokyo.

Commodity-related shares were however rising in Tokyo and Sydney after base metals gained Monday, with LME three-month copper hitting 14-month highs in London, rising more than 5.0%. Spot gold also briefly touched a record high of $1,143.30 a troy ounce in electronic trade.

In Japan, Inpex was up 1.4% with Sumitomo Metal Mining up 1.8% and Mitsui & Co rising 1.5%, while in Sydney BHP Billiton was up 1.8%, Fortescue up 0.5% and Macarthur Coal higher by 3.6%.

"As long as U.S. interest rates remain at current low levels, liquidity and dollar selling will continue to support commodity markets," said Mizuho's Takahashi.

Canon shares meanwhile gained 2.1% in Tokyo, after news it would buy Dutch printer maker Oce NV for EUR730 million in cash, with the Japanese office machine maker aiming to grow amid shaky prospects for corporate spending.

Textile maker Daiwabo Holdings though was ask-only after saying Monday it planned to issue 35 million new shares to raise up to Y11.84 billion in order to pay back loans.

Sellers were coming into Australian banks, with Westpac off 0.9% and ANZ down 0.8%.

"We're seeing a continuation of yesterday's theme -- a switch out of the banks into the resources," said Chris Blair, head of retail broking at Patersons in Sydney. "The market's thinking banks aren't great value where they are, with yields a little low and valuations a little high."

Hynix Semiconductor fell 5.0% in Seoul after creditors said they may attempt to sell their collective 28% stake through a block deal if a public auction proved unsuccessful. Last week, Hyosung Corp. withdrew its bid for the controlling stake in Hynix.

New Zealand share investors were closely watching the currency market, with the Kiwi dollar briefly rising over US$0.75 against the U.S. dollar for the first time since late October.

Infratil slipped 1.3% after the infrastructure investor posted a first-half net loss, largely due to significant write-downs on existing assets.

In currency trade the euro was nudging higher against the U.S. dollar and Japanese yen, at $1.4980 from $1.4972 in New York, and Y133.44 from Y133.34, with the U.S. dollar at Y89.10 against the Japanese yen, from Y89.08.

"The main focus in the G3 space is whether the euro can soon push through its 2009 high of $1.5063," said analysts at UBS. "With positioning a lot lighter than a few weeks ago, if the market makes it through the next stopping point could arguably be $1.55."

Lead Japanese government bond futures were 0.35 higher at 139.21 points, but traders expected some resistance around 139.40. "Given the new government's stance on debt issuance remains uncertain, it's difficult for players to keep buying JGBs actively," said Katsutoshi Inadome, an analyst at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities.

Spot gold was down 25 cents from New York levels, at $1,139.15 a troy ounce, though traders said momentum pointed to further gains in the short term. Some were still talking about heavy Comex call option positioning at a strike price of $1,200, which may cause some volatility until its expiry next week.

Front-month Nymex crude oil futures were five cents higher on Globex at $78.95 a barrel, having risen $2.55 or 3.3% in New York.

Forex: NZD/USD gains at risk appetite returns

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 07:27:00 +0000

The Kiwi rose against the dollar and the euro to 3-week highs. The NZD rose on the back of negative sentiment against the US economy and the return of risk appetite. The pair is currently trading at 0.7496 finding support at 0.7455 and resistance at 0.7504. Outlook for the pair is slightly bearish.

In the US, the Fed reaffirmed its commitment to keeping interests at historic lows in order to boost the economy. Traders saw that as a sign of continuing weakness in the dollar selling the currency against the EUR opting for high-yielding currencies such as the Kiwi.

NZD/USD

NZD/USD (Nov 17 at 07:24 GMT)

0.7479/86 (-0.04%)

H 0.7501 L 0.7459

S3	S2	S1	R1	R2	R3
0.7433	0.7451	0.7470	0.7488	0.7507	0.7525

[?]Trend Index	[?]OB/OS Index
Neutral	Neutral
Data updated on Nov 17 at 07:15 (15-minute timeframe)

[ View NZD/USD Technical Studies ]

UPDATE:Asian Shares Modestly Higher; Commodity Firms Support

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 07:25:00 +0000

SINGAPORE -- Most Asian share markets were only a little higher Tuesday despite a strong performance on Wall Street and even as mining stocks found buyers, with some broad fatigue setting in after recent gains.

Japan's Nikkei 225 was down 0.1% with Australia's S&P/ASX 200 0.1% lower and South Korea's Kospi Composite falling 0.1%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 0.4%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were down 17 points in screen trade.

The region was not mirroring the size of gains in the U.S., where all three major indexes rose to new closing highs on the year, helped by energy and materials firms.

The continued decline in the U.S. dollar - and consequent strength in Asia-Pacific domestic currencies - was causing some concern for exporter-related stocks. "Most exporters may underperform the market," said Yukio Takahashi, a market analyst at Mizuho Securities in Tokyo.

Commodity-related shares were however rising across the region after base metals gained Monday, with LME three-month copper hitting 14-month highs in London, rising more than 5.0%. Spot gold also briefly touched a record high of $1,143.30 a troy ounce in electronic trade.

In Japan, Inpex was up 0.5% with Sumitomo Metal Mining up 1.4% while in Sydney BHP Billiton was up 1.9% and Macarthur Coal was higher by 3.8%. In Hong Kong, CNOOC was up 0.3% while China Shenhua rose 0.8% and in Indonesia, Antam was up 4.2%.

"As long as U.S. interest rates remain at current low levels, liquidity and dollar selling will continue to support commodity markets," said Mizuho's Takahashi.

In Shanghai, China Merchant Securities disappointed on debut with the stock opening only 12.9% higher at CNY35.01, under market expectations for gains in the 20% to 30% range. The brokerage sold 358.5 million yuan-denominated A shares and raised $1.62 billion, after attracting CNY1.04 trillion in subscriptions.

In Taiwan, the index was 0.1% lower as financial stocks fell despite news that Taiwan and China had signed the long-awaited financial memorandum of understanding late on Monday. IBT Securities analyst Regina Lee said profit-taking likely hurt the financial sector, but "the long-term strength of financial shares remains." Yuanta Financial was down and Mega Financial slipped 3.0%.

Elsewhere, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.3%. Singapore's Straits Times Index was down 0.4%, Malaysia's Kuala Lumpur Composite Index was up 0.4% and Philippine shares were up 0.2%. In Indonesia, stocks rose 0.4% while Thailand shares were 0.4% higher and New Zealand's NZX-50 was down 1.1%

In Tokyo, Canon shares rose 2.7% after news it would buy Dutch printer maker Oce NV for EUR730 million in cash, with the Japanese office machine maker aiming to grow amid shaky prospects for corporate spending.

Sellers were active in Australian banks, with Westpac off 2.2% and ANZ down 1.5%.

"We're seeing a continuation of yesterday's theme -- a switch out of the banks into the resources," said Chris Blair, head of retail broking at Patersons in Sydney. "The market's thinking banks aren't great value where they are, with yields a little low and valuations a little high."

Hynix Semiconductor fell 6.4% in Seoul after creditors said they may attempt to sell their collective 28% stake through a block deal if a public auction proved unsuccessful. Last week, Hyosung Corp. withdrew its bid for the controlling stake in Hynix.

New Zealand share investors were closely watching the currency market, with the Kiwi dollar briefly rising over US$0.75 against the U.S. dollar for the first time since late October.

Infratil slipped 1.3% after the infrastructure investor posted a first-half net loss, largely due to significant write-downs on existing assets.

In currency trade, tepid equities trade kept the euro contained at $1.4951 from $1.4972 in New York against the U.S. dollar and at Y133.26 from Y133.34 against the Japanese yen while the U.S. dollar was at Y89.04 against the Japanese yen, from Y89.08.

The Australia dollar came off 40 points to US$0.9334 after minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia raised doubts about whether the central bank will continue to raise rates at its next policy meeting on Dec. 1. The Reserve Bank of Australia flagged further gradual increases in interest rates but said it is unsure how quickly it will make the policy adjustments.

Hayden Atkins, an economist at Macquarie Bank, said the RBA's minutes illustrate that while the bank remains committed to further tightening, much will depend on the data flow between now and the December meeting.

Lead December Japanese government bond futures were 0.27 higher at 139.13 points, but traders expected some resistance around 139.40. "Given the new government's stance on debt issuance remains uncertain, it's difficult for players to keep buying JGBs actively," said Katsutoshi Inadome, an analyst at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities.

The London Mercantile Exchange 3-month copper contract was down $51 at $6,798 per ton from the PM kerb on profit taking after a robust rise Monday, while LME nickel was up $50 at $16,850 from Monday's kerb.

Spot gold was down $1.20 from New York levels, at $1,138 a troy ounce.

Front-month Nymex crude oil futures were 31 cents lower on Globex at $78.59 a barrel, having risen $2.55 or 3.3% in New York.

Forex: EUR/AUD up and trading at 1.6010

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 07:24:00 +0000

The EUR gained on the AUD after the pair opened 1.5976 and rose to an intraday high of 1.6016. The pair has since been trading in a narrow band around 1.6000 and finds support at 1.5960 and resistance at 1.6500.

In Australia however, the RBA has left open the possibility of further rises but it remains unclear on the timing. The RBA also felt it prudent “over time” to gradually reduce fiscal support. Given that recent data from Australia points to a mixed basket, overall, the Australain economy is in relatively good shape and may pave the way for a further rate rise in December.

AUD/USD (Nov 17 at 07:22 GMT)

0.9336/42 (-0.34%)

H 0.938 L 0.932

S3	S2	S1	R1	R2	R3
0.9287	0.9311	0.9334	0.9348	0.9371	0.9395

[?]Trend Index	[?]OB/OS Index
Slightly Bearish	Neutral
Data updated on Nov 17 at 07:15 (15-minute timeframe)

[ View AUD/USD Technical Studies ]

CORRECT:=UPDATE:Asian Shares Mostly Lower; Commodity Cos Up

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 07:23:00 +0000

SINGAPORE -- Most Asian share markets were slightly lower Tuesday despite a strong performance on Wall Street and even as mining stocks found buyers, with some broad fatigue setting in after recent gains.

Japan's Nikkei 225 was down 0.1% with Australia's S&P/ASX 200 0.1% lower and South Korea's Kospi Composite falling 0.1%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 0.4%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were down 17 points in screen trade.

The region was lagging the U.S., where all three major indexes rose to new closing highs on the year, helped by energy and materials firms.

The continued decline in the U.S. dollar - and consequent strength in Asia-Pacific domestic currencies - was causing some concern for exporter-related stocks. "Most exporters may underperform the market," said Yukio Takahashi, a market analyst at Mizuho Securities in Tokyo.

Commodity-related shares were however rising across the region after base metals gained Monday, with LME three-month copper hitting 14-month highs in London, rising more than 5.0%. Spot gold also briefly touched a record high of $1,143.30 a troy ounce in electronic trade.

In Japan, Inpex was up 0.5% with Sumitomo Metal Mining up 1.4%, while in Sydney BHP Billiton was up 1.9% and Macarthur Coal was higher by 3.8%. In Hong Kong, CNOOC was up 0.3% while China Shenhua rose 0.8% and in Indonesia, Antam was up 4.2%.

"As long as U.S. interest rates remain at current low levels, liquidity and dollar selling will continue to support commodity markets," said Mizuho's Takahashi.

In Shanghai, China Merchant Securities disappointed on debut with the stock only 12.9% higher at CNY35.01, versus market expectations for gains of 20% to 30%. The brokerage sold 358.5 million yuan-denominated A shares and raised $1.62 billion, after attracting CNY1.04 trillion in subscriptions.

In Taiwan, the index was 0.1% lower as financial stocks fell despite news Taiwan and China had signed a long-awaited financial memorandum of understanding late on Monday. IBT Securities analyst Regina Lee said profit-taking likely hurt the financial sector, but "the long-term strength of financial shares remains." Yuanta Financial was down and Mega Financial slipped 3.0%.

Elsewhere, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.3%. Singapore's Straits Times Index was down 0.4%, Malaysia's Kuala Lumpur Composite Index was up 0.4% and Philippine shares were up 0.2%. In Indonesia, stocks rose 0.4% while Thailand shares were 0.4% higher and New Zealand's NZX-50 was down 1.1%

In Tokyo, Canon shares rose 2.7% after news it would buy Dutch printer maker Oce NV for EUR730 million in cash, with the Japanese office machine maker aiming to grow amid shaky prospects for corporate spending.

Sellers were active in Australian banks, with Westpac off 2.2% and ANZ down 1.5%.

"We're seeing a continuation of yesterday's theme -- a switch out of the banks into the resources," said Chris Blair, head of retail broking at Patersons in Sydney. "The market's thinking banks aren't great value where they are, with yields a little low and valuations a little high."

Hynix Semiconductor fell 6.4% in Seoul after creditors said they may attempt to sell their collective 28% stake through a block deal if a public auction proved unsuccessful. Last week, Hyosung Corp. withdrew its bid for the controlling stake in Hynix.

New Zealand share investors were closely watching the currency market, with the Kiwi dollar briefly rising over US$0.75 against the U.S. dollar for the first time since late October.

Infratil slipped 1.3% after the infrastructure investor posted a first-half net loss, largely due to significant write-downs on existing assets.

In currency trade, tepid equities trade kept the euro contained at $1.4951 from $1.4972 in New York against the U.S. dollar and at Y133.26 from Y133.34 against the Japanese yen while the U.S. dollar was at Y89.04 against the Japanese yen, from Y89.08.

The Australia dollar came off 40 points to US$0.9334 after minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia raised doubts about whether the central bank will continue to raise rates at its next policy meeting on Dec. 1. The Reserve Bank of Australia flagged further gradual increases in interest rates but said it is unsure how quickly it will make the policy adjustments.

Hayden Atkins, an economist at Macquarie Bank, said the RBA's minutes illustrate that while the bank remains committed to further tightening, much will depend on the data flow between now and the December meeting.

Lead December Japanese government bond futures were 0.27 higher at 139.13 points, but traders expected some resistance around 139.40. "Given the new government's stance on debt issuance remains uncertain, it's difficult for players to keep buying JGBs actively," said Katsutoshi Inadome, an analyst at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities.

The London Mercantile Exchange 3-month copper contract was down $51 at $6,798 per ton from the PM kerb, while nickel was up $50 at $16,850 from Monday's kerb. Spot gold was down $1.20 from New York levels, at $1,138 a troy ounce.

Front-month Nymex crude oil futures were 31 cents lower on Globex at $78.59 a barrel, having risen $2.55 or 3.3% in New York.

Forex: AUD/NZD is lower and trading at 1.2490

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 07:22:00 +0000

The Kiwi gained against the Aussie and the pair is currently trading at 1.2490. The pair is down 1.68% after opening at 1.2511.

While the Aussie rose sharply against most currencies early in the local session, some profit taking may ensue. The dollar rose against a weak USD and was boosted by RBA comments that signalled a possibility of further interest rate rises in Australia, though it remains unclear if this will occur in December or early in 2010.

AUD/USD (Nov 17 at 07:22 GMT)

0.9336/42 (-0.34%)

H 0.938 L 0.932

S3	S2	S1	R1	R2	R3
0.9287	0.9311	0.9334	0.9348	0.9371	0.9395

[?]Trend Index	[?]OB/OS Index
Slightly Bearish	Neutral
Data updated on Nov 17 at 07:15 (15-minute timeframe)

[ View AUD/USD Technical Studies ]

Asian forex market wrap: USD still down after Bernanke speech

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 07:22:00 +0000

The USD fell again overnight this time after Ben Bernanke's speech Fed's Kohn sees no asset bubbles in US AUD slips slightly on RBA minutes which suggest that there is a question mark hanging over the timing of future rate rises Japan's September tertiary activity -0.5% Fujii says that recklessly issuing bonds would cause problems Regional stockmarkets give up early gains to finish around 0.5% lower Gold slips back $1.50 from another overnight record high; more IMF sales, this time on a much smaller scale to Mauritius. Andrew Sentance remarks will likely support the pound into early Europe Overall another very quiet day in Asia with most of the majors in 50 pip ranges. Asia opened towards the upper end of the EUR/USD and AUD/USD ranges but has slipped lower as regional stockmarkets started to struggle. USD/JPY has been underpinned by Toshin-related buying throughout the morning and there may be some residual buying left to be done at the London fix. The range has been a paltry 88.90/89.17 which shows that buyers are having little trouble getting filled, regardless of the level. Some GBP/JPY buying was noted towards the 149.50 low from Singapore-based accounts and more bids are noted at 149.00-10. Cable has traded in a 1.6796/1.6846 range and dips remain well supported as the pound continues to show stability and a little strength on the crosses. The Andrew Sentance remarks helped the pound make some small gains especially against the EUR. The AUD fell back after the release of the RBA minutes but the range has nonetheless been a fairly subdued .9332/77. Option barriers are touted at .9450 (smallish) and .9500 (larger). The EUR/USD range has been 1.4947/97 and there have been no announcements or market revelations of note. Markets: Nikkei -0.4%, HK -0.5%, Kospi flat. Gold -$1.5 at $1138/oz. Oil $78.60.

Asian markets ease together with commodity prices; Pound and Yen, higher

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 07:21:00 +0000

Asian markets are, in most cases, going through declines after several positive sessions, weighed by a retreat ion commodity prices and profit-taking by investors. Euro has remained in range, while Pound and Yen have advanced.

Japanese Nikkei Index drops 0.8%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index declined 0.4%, and South Korean Kospi Index dips 0.2%. Markets in Australia and Singapore have gone lower, while Chinese Shangai Index rose 0.2%.

Commodity prices have retreated from yesterday's levels. Oil prices have dropped below $79, while gold prices have retreated from all time high at $1,1143.55 to $1,1134.20 low.

Pound and Yen, higher

GBP/USD extended on Monday its rally from 1.6515 low on November 12, and after bouncing at 1.6670 low, the Sterling rose to a fresh 3-month high at 1.6870 before easing somewhat and consolidate, during Asian session, in a range from 1.6800 to 1.6845.

USD/JPY decline from 90.60 high in November 12 has extended below 89.35/40, with the pair hitting a fresh 5-week low at 88.75 before picking up and consolidate in a range from 88.90/00 to 89.15.

EUR/USD has been going through a choppy rangebound session. Recovery from 1.4825 low on Friday has entered into a consolidation period, moving from 1,4940 to 1.4995 with a bearish attempt hold at 1.4879 and an upward attempt capped at 1.5015.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD (Nov 17 at 07:20 GMT)

1.4970/72 (0.00%)

H 1.4999 L 1.4933

S3	S2	S1	R1	R2	R3
1.4882	1.4920	1.4957	1.4975	1.5012	1.5050

[?]Trend Index	[?]OB/OS Index
Strongly Bullish	Neutral
Data updated on Nov 17 at 07:15 (15-minute timeframe)

[ View EUR/USD Technical Studies ]

BOJ Gov Shirakawa: Acknowledge Risk Of Keeping Rates Low For Too Long

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 08:03:00 +0000

TOKYO -- Bank of Japan Gov. Masaaki Shirakawa on Monday acknowledged the risk of keeping interest rates low for too long, pointing to the U.S.'s possible vulnerability to such risks.

"If the continuation of low interest rates (in the U.S.) leads to a substantial rise in long-term interest rates by raising inflation expectations or by generating expectations for a weak dollar, this may give rise to another problem, namely that the fiscal burden increases and in turn the need for adjustments in the government's balance-sheet arises," Shirakawa said at the Paris EUROPLACE forum in Tokyo.

The U.S. Federal Reserve has kept its policy target rate in a 0% to 0.25% range since December. The Japanese central bank too has kept its target rate ultra-low since December, at 0.1%.

The BOJ chief added balance-sheet adjustment in U.S. and European economies is "a key issue in determining the outlook for the global economy."

As for prices, Shirakawa said it is not appropriate to judge price stability solely by short-term moves in the consumer price index, but the central bank must look at medium- and long-term developments.

In late October, the BOJ said in its latest outlook report that the nation's CPI may stay in negative territory for at least this and the next two fiscal years.

Forex: USD/JPY trading below Y90.00

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 08:02:00 +0000

The USD/JPY could not hold onto levels above Y90.00 last week and is now trading at 89.56. After opening at 89.55, the pair set an intraday high of 89.68 then dropped to current levels. Outlook for the pair is slightly bullish finding support at 89.20 and resistance at 89.74.

The ended the week on a high gaining 73 points or 0.72% to be at 10270.47. Meanwhile, Japan’s economy grew with GDP rising in the September quarter by 1.2% from the previous quarter. The annualised rate is close to 4.8%. This was a better than expected outcome given Japan’s troubling unemployment and deflation. It also shows that the previous government’s stimulus package has increased consumer spending.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY (Nov 16 at 07:58 GMT)

89.57/61 (0.01%)

H 89.71 L 89.35

S3	S2	S1	R1	R2	R3
89.0575	89.2812	89.5050	89.6250	89.8491	90.0731

[?]Trend Index	[?]OB/OS Index
Slightly Bullish	Neutral
Data updated on Nov 16 at 07:55 (15-minute timeframe)

[ View USD/JPY Technical Studies ]

Forex: AUD/USD slightly bullish and trading at 0.9332

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 08:01:00 +0000

The Aussie gained ground on the dollar and is trading at 0.9332. After settling an intraday high of 0.9355 the Aussie eased slightly to be trading at current levels. Outlook for the pair remains slightly bullish and finds support at 0.9302 and resistance at 0.9360.

In Australia the markets have risen by 47 points or around 1% buoyed by mining and retail stocks. Later today the RBA will provide additional insights into monetary policy including reasoning behind the latest interest rise. This may play a significant part in further currency fluctuations. Gold also rose to new heights given the weakness in the dollar and is trading at USD 1123.40.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD (Nov 16 at 07:58 GMT)

0.9342/48 (0.08%)

H 0.9358 L 0.9314

S3	S2	S1	R1	R2	R3
0.9301	0.9325	0.9348	0.9359	0.9382	0.9406

[?]Trend Index	[?]OB/OS Index
Slightly Bearish	Neutral
Data updated on Nov 16 at 07:55 (15-minute timeframe)

[ View AUD/USD Technical Studies ]

Forex: NZD/USD slightly bullish and trading at 74.28

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 08:00:00 +0000

The Kiwi recovered some of its losses against the USD last week to be trading at 0.7428. Outlook for the pair is slightly bullish and the pair finds support at 0.7396 and resistance at 0.7447.

The markets in both Australia and New Zealand rose as did the Kiwi against a weak dollar. The dollar fell on news of a larger than expected trade deficit and weaker consumer sentiment. As reported in the NZ Herald, “a report showing the eurozone may have exited recession in the third quarter boosted the euro against the greenback and encouraged investors to buy stocks and high-yielding currencies such as the NZ dollar.”

NZD/USD

NZD/USD (Nov 16 at 07:59 GMT)

0.7447/51 (0.35%)

H 0.7459 L 0.7392

S3	S2	S1	R1	R2	R3
0.7405	0.7424	0.7442	0.7464	0.7483	0.7502

[?]Trend Index	[?]OB/OS Index
Slightly Bullish	Neutral
Data updated on Nov 16 at 07:55 (15-minute timeframe)

[ View NZD/USD Technical Studies ]

UPDATE: Asian Shares Mostly Higher;Fund-Raising Curbs Tokyo

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 07:55:00 +0000

SINGAPORE -- Asian shares traded mostly higher Monday with gold stocks leading in Sydney as the precious metal hit another record high, but chatter about potential capital raisings in Tokyo limited gains in that market.

Japan's Nikkei 225 was up 0.2% with Australia's S&P/ASX 200 up 0.9% and South Korea's Kospi Composite up 0.2%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index added 1.6%, while China's Shanghai Composite Index advanced 2.2% futures were 53 points higher in screen trade.

Japan's market didn't find much traction despite gross domestic product data for the third quarter rising 1.2% on the quarter, faster than the 0.6% tipped in a poll of economists, as talk of capital raisings was curbing gains.

"GDP is particularly important for medium- and long-term investors, but the stock market now is mostly moved by short-term players," such as brokerage dealers, hedge funds and individuals trading online, Tokai Tokyo Securities market analyst Seiichi Suzuki said, adding, for them, further short-term negatives, such as dilution concerns due to capital-raising plans are more salient.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group was down 4.3% after a person familiar with the matter said it was considering raising capital of Y1 trillion by issuing common shares. If the offering goes ahead, the capital boost would be one of the biggest share sales by a Japanese financial institution. The news weighed on other financial plays, with SMFG down 3.7% and Mizuho Financial Group losing 2.2%.

Hitachi was 8.5% lower on the company's plan to raise up to Y415.67 billion from an issuance of new shares and convertible bonds to fund capital outlays and pay back its loans. The news triggered profit-taking in other chip shares, sending Elpida down 3.3% and Toshiba down 4.8%.

In Taiwan, Chi Mei Optoelectronics jumped 6.9% on news Saturday that Taiwan's Innolux Display -- the world's largest flat-panel monitor maker -- would buy Taiwan's No. 2 flat-screen producer, in an all-share deal worth $5.3 billion. Innolux added 1.2%. Chunghwa Picture Tubes rose 7.0% on hopes it may also be an acquisition target.

"The consolidation is positive news for the LCD industry as it will help stabilize panel prices," said Capital Securities trader Diana Wu. "The merger will also help Taiwanese flat-panel makers compete against their Korean rivals," Wu said.

Resource shares were driving Australia's market up, as base and precious metals continued to gain. Spot gold hit $1,123.50 per troy ounce in Asian hours, a rise of $5.00 from the New York close.

"What's good for gold is always good for Australia," said Citigroup's Graham Harman. BHP Billiton was up 1.9% with Rio Tinto up 2.5% and Lihir Gold rising 3.3%. Sino Gold's Australian-listed shares added 3.5%, while its Hong Kong-listed stock rose 4.0%.

Elsewhere, AXA Asia Pacific was 3.1% higher in Sydney after the Sydney Morning Herald reported AXA SA was considering adding a sweetener to its joint offer for AXA APH with AMP. AMP was up 1.9%.

China's shares outperformed the region, led by gains in renewable energy plays.

"The U.S. President's visit is driving speculative funds to the renewable energy and low carbon emission sectors as the topic of climate change is put at the top of Obama's agenda during his (Nov. 15-18) visit," said Hu Jiamin at CSC International Holdings.

Mainland-listed Sichuan Chuantou Energy added 2.0%, while in Hong Kong, wind and solar concern Hong Kong Energy added 11.5%.

Strength in the Korean won was crimping shares of exporters in Korea, with the U.S. dollar briefly falling to its lowest level this year against the won, at KRW1,154.3. Hyundai Motor was down 1.0% and LG Electronics shed 0.5%.

Among other markets, New Zealand's NZX-50 rose 0.3%, Singapore's Straits Times Index added 1.8%, Taiwan's Taiex advanced 1.5%, Malaysia's KLCI gained 0.4%, Indonesian shares were 1.0% higher and Thai shares tacked on 0.4%. Bucking the trend, Philippine shares shed 1.0% on profit-taking in mining plays.

In currency markets the euro was higher against the U.S. dollar and Japanese yen, and within narrow ranges. The single currency was at $1.4955, from $1.4926 in New York on Friday, and at Y134.08, from Y133.79. Against the yen, the U.S. dollar was steady at Y89.63 from Y89.65.

ANZ Bank senior dealer Alex Sinton expected the U.S. dollar to fall more. "It's a continuation of past trends and current problems. Bets against the U.S. dollar are still increasing."

Japanese government bond futures were lower, with the lead futures contract off 0.01 at 138.87 points.

Front-month Nymex crude oil futures were 58 cents higher on Globex at $76.93 a barrel, after slipping 59 cents Friday in New York.

Still, Jim Ritterbusch, president of trading advisory firm Ritterbusch & Associates, said crude may not have found its floor and a more decisive run at the $75 mark was expected this week, with the oil market affected by continued weakness in U.S. demand.

The three-month London Metals Exchange copper futures contract was at $6,640 per ton, up $121 from the London kerb in very strong volume with nearly 2,000 lots traded so far, while aluminum was at $1,962 per ton, up $17.

Forex: EUR/AUD loses 60 pips and trading at 1.6026

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 07:54:00 +0000

The EUR gained on the Aussie and is now trading at 1.6026. After opening at 1.5976, lower than last week’s close, the EUR posted an intraday high of 1.6040 before settling to current levels. There are downward tendencies on the pair and it finds support at 1.6000 and resistance at 1.6210. The EUR/AUD has lost to date 60 pips.

Support for the EUR was sparked after a report showed Europe exiting the recession in the September quarter. Nevertheless, Germany, Europe’s largest economy will not be at pre crash levels for at least 2-years.

In Australia the dollar was in a subdued mood as the markets waited on signs from the RBA on the future pace of interest rate rises.

EUR/AUD

EUR/AUD (Nov 16 at 07:54 GMT)

1.6028/32 (0.33%)

H 1.604 L 1.5962

S3	S2	S1	R1	R2	R3
1.5941	1.5981	1.6021	1.6038	1.6078	1.6118

[?]Trend Index	[?]OB/OS Index
Slightly Bullish	Neutral
Data updated on Nov 16 at 07:54 (15-minute timeframe)

[ View EUR/AUD Technical Studies ]

Forex: AUD/NZD loses ground and is trading at 1.2562

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 07:53:00 +0000

The AUD lost gains made on the Kiwi late last week to be trading at 1.2562. The pair has been oscillating in a narrow channel since it opened at 1.2572 while it posted an intraday high of 1.2601.

The AUD rose against most currencies at the open but has since been in subdued mood as the markets await data from the Reserva Bank of Australia on monetary policy and the pace of interest rate rises in Australia. In Europe, positive economic data showing that it exited the recession lifted the EUR as well as high-yielding currencies such as the New Zealand dollar.

AUD/NZD

AUD/NZD (Nov 16 at 07:53 GMT)

1.2549/55 (-0.10%)

H 1.2601 L 1.2531

S3	S2	S1	R1	R2	R3
1.2463	1.2494	1.2526	1.2552	1.2584	1.2615

[?]Trend Index	[?]OB/OS Index
Slightly Bearish	Neutral
Data updated on Nov 16 at 07:53 (15-minute timeframe)

[ View AUD/NZD Technical Studies ]

Asian forex market wrap: USD under pressure again

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 07:52:00 +0000

China and US continue to disagree on appropriate monetary policy Japanese GDP growth accelerates, economy grew at 4.8% in Q3 Gold hits another record high as USD falls China October FDI +5.7% YoY New Zealand Q3 PPI fell more than expected The USD opened under pressure in Asia after the APEC final communique toned down any mention of market-determined currencies. Obvious differences of opinion between the US and China over the value of the Yuan also undermined the dollar during the Asian session. Cable was the first mover, triggering stops above 1.6710 in early interbank trade. Trade has been quite insipid since then with the pair only managing a range of 1.6686/1.6735. EUR/USD and AUD/USD followed the cable higher and have gradually risen throughout the session. EUR/USD range has been 1.4917/72. More offers are seen around 1.5000/10 with stops above 20. The AUD/USD fell just prior to the Tokyo fix but has recovered nicely as Toshin demand emerged. Range in the AUD/USD .9315/55. USD/JPY has been supported by strong Toshin interest towards 89.00/30 and there is also good demand on the crosses both today and tomorrow. Markets: Nikkei +0.1%; HK +1.4%; Kospi +1%; Sydney +1.2%. Gold +$12 @ $1229.50/oz. Oil +1% at $77.25/bbl.

Asian markets, mostly up following Wall Street; Euro and Pound, bouncing up

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 07:51:00 +0000

Asian markets are going through gains on Monday, following news of Japanese economic growth and wall Street's recent rally. Euro and Pound continue appreciating from last week's lows.

Japanese Nikkei Index has edged up 0.13%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 1.5% and South Korean Kospi Index added 0.2%. Markets in Indonesia, New Zealand and Taiwan have also gone up.

Markets have been cheered up by Japanese GDP, which rose 4.8% in the third quarter, its second consecutive advance, and the largest since 2007, although market optimism has been trimmed about doubts about the real potential of Japanese economy without the massive government stimulus.

Euro and Pound's recovery continues

EUR/USD recovery from 1.4825 low on Friday, has extended during Asian session, with the Euro rallying from 1.4920 to levels around 1.4975 at the moment of writing; 0.35% above the day opening price.

GBP/USD rebound from 1.6515 low on November 12 has extended to levels above 1.6700, and the Euro has remained trading in a range from 1.6685 to 1.6735 during today´s Asian session, with the Sterling testing session high at 1.6735 at the moment of writing.

USD/JPY has consolidated at levels below 90.00. After dropping from 90.60 hogh on November 12, the pair has opened a consolidation phase , and remains moving in an area from 89.40 to 89.70.

EUR/USD (Nov 16 at 07:48 GMT)

1.4992/93 (0.50%)

H 1.4993 L 1.4914

S3	S2	S1	R1	R2	R3
1.4910	1.4948	1.4985	1.4998	1.5035	1.5073

[?]Trend Index	[?]OB/OS Index
Slightly Bullish	Neutral
Data updated on Nov 16 at 07:45 (15-minute timeframe)

[ View EUR/USD Technical Studies ]

Forex: EUR/USD: Euro continues appreciating, and approaches 1.5000

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 07:50:00 +0000

EUR/USD recovery from 1.4825 low on Friday, has extended during Asian session, with the Euro rallying from 1.4920 to levels around 1.4975 at the moment of writing; 0.35% above the day opening price.

At the moment, the Euro could find resistance at 1.4980, and above here at 1.5000/15 (Nov 12 high) and 15050 (Nov 11 high). On the downside, support levels lie at 1.4935 (Intra-day low/ Nov 13 high), and below here, 1.4890/00 and 1.4870.

EUR/GBP decline from Nov 12 high at 0.9065 found support on Friday at 0.8905 but the following recovery attempt has been unable to get through 0.8960, and the pair has dropped back to 0.8945 at the moment of writing. Resistance levels are 0.8960 and 0.9015. Support levels are 0.8895/05 and 0.8840.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD (Nov 16 at 07:48 GMT)

1.4992/93 (0.50%)

H 1.4993 L 1.4914

S3	S2	S1	R1	R2	R3
1.4910	1.4948	1.4985	1.4998	1.5035	1.5073

[?]Trend Index	[?]OB/OS Index
Slightly Bullish	Neutral
Data updated on Nov 16 at 07:45 (15-minute timeframe)

[ View EUR/USD Technical Studies ]

GLOBAL MARKETS: European Stocks To Open Up On Global Optimism

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 07:47:00 +0000

LONDON -- European shares are expected to open higher Monday, as investors show confidence about a global recovery following upbeat Japanese gross domestic product data.

The third quarter Japanese GDP release showed the fastest rate of growth since the first quarter of 2007, said Gareth Berry at UBS, and 'our economists note that the risk of Japan slipping into a double-dip recession early next year has receded significantly."

Consequently, Ben Potter, market analyst at IG Markets, expected London's FTSE 100 index to open 22 points higher at 5318, Frankfurt's DAX 23 points higher at 5710, and the CAC-40 index in Paris 10 points higher at 3816.

As far as the European economic calendar is concerned, euro-zone harmonized CPI is due at 1000 GMT. However, U.S. retail sales for October, at 1330 GMT, are likely to take center stage, with the market expecting a strong uptick, said Potter.

"Failure to deliver here is going to heap pressure on Wall Street, and although the Standard & Poor's break above 1100 is increasingly being portrayed as having the potential to determine that this is no bear market rally, anything that suggests consumer confidence is taking a hit as we approach the holiday shopping season could initiate a wave of profit taking in the U.S. - the impact of which would doubtless be felt on markets across the globe," said Potter.

On Wall Street Friday, stocks climbed amid some better-than-expected earnings reports, with Walt Disney propelling the higher and retailer J.C. Penney getting a boost from investors.

The gains in the stock market came despite reports showing a decline in U.S. consumer sentiment in November and a widening of the trade deficit in September.

The rose 73 points, or 0.7%, to 10270,47, up 2.5% for the week. The Nasdaq added 18.86, or 0.89%, 2167.88, up 2.6% for the week. And the Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 6.24, or 0.6%, to 1093.48, up 2.3% for the week.

A strong session in the U.S. supported Asian shares, which traded mostly higher Monday with gold stocks leading in Sydney as the precious metal hit another record high, but chatter about potential capital raisings in Tokyo limited gains in that market.

Japan's Nikkei 225 closed just 0.2% higher, but China's Shanghai Composite Index advanced 2.7% and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index closed 1.0% higher. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index was last seen 1.8% higher.

In the currency markets, the euro gained ground against the dollar, as traders bought high-risk currencies amid gretaer confidence about the recovery of the world's economy.

At 0725 GMT, the euro stood at $1.4986, around half a U.S. cent higher compared with late Friday in New York, while sterling stood at $1.6738, from around $1.6714. The dollar was at Y89.56, from Y89.65.

The December front-month Nymex crude contract was $1.03 higher at $77.38 a barrel, after slipping 59 cents Friday in New York, supported by a weaker dollar against the euro and stronger Asian stocks. Spot gold was trading at $1,131.45 a Troy ounce, up around $11 from the New York close, a fresh record high.

Elsewhere, the December bund futures contract opened marginally higher, up just 0.08 at 121.40.

Forex: USD/JPY mixed but above Y90.00

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 06:31:00 +0000

The USD/JPY had mixed fortunes but broke resistance above the 90.00 level and is trading at 90.18. The pair posted an intraday high of 90.42 and has been trading in a narrow range between 90.28/32. Support is found at 90.0094 with resistance line at 90.5909. Current outlook is slightly bearish.

The dollar rallied as risk aversion took hold while commodities, especially energy stoks fell. While job claims in the US actually fell to its lowest level since January, the US deficit grew to an all-time high last month. The deficit posted a record high of USD 176.4bn eclipsing the previous record set the month before. Further pressure on the pair may be placed as the markets await Japanese reports on industrial production and household confidence.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY (Nov 13 at 06:30 GMT)

90.22/25 (-0.14%)

H 90.42 L 90.12

S3	S2	S1	R1	R2	R3
89.7391	89.9645	90.1900	90.2600	90.4857	90.7113

[?]Trend Index	[?]OB/OS Index
Neutral	Neutral
Data updated on Nov 13 at 06:00 (15-minute timeframe)

[ View USD/JPY Technical Studies ]

Forex: AUD/USD down to 0.9247 as risk aversion returns

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 06:30:00 +0000

The Aussie lost ground to the dollar as risk aversion returned. The pair is currently trading at 0.9247. Earlier, the pair posted an intraday high of 0.9268 and finds support at 0.9223 and resistance at 0.9285. Outlook for the pair is slightly bullish at present.

While the USD firmed against most currencies, commodity prices fell, especially energy stocks. Markets had grown wary of larger than expected stockpiles of crude in the US.

Meanwhile, as reported in Business Spectator, Michael Metcalfe, head of State Street Global Markets maintains the AUD is overvalued and may experience further correction. “I think it’s fair to say that by most measures the Australian dollar is overvalued, perhaps as much as 10% against the US dollar or even on a trade weighted basis.”

AUD/USD

AUD/USD (Nov 13 at 06:30 GMT)

0.9259/61 (0.27%)

H 0.9269 L 0.9219

S3	S2	S1	R1	R2	R3
0.9209	0.9232	0.9255	0.9268	0.9291	0.9314

[?]Trend Index	[?]OB/OS Index
Neutral	Neutral
Data updated on Nov 13 at 06:00 (15-minute timeframe)

[ View AUD/USD Technical Studies ]

Forex: NZD/USD steady at 0.7327

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 06:29:00 +0000

The Kiwi is currently trading at 0.7327 which was the price it opened at. The ZND posted an intraday high of 0.7345 findinf support at 0.7287 and resistance at 0.7342. Outlook for the pair remains slightly bearish.

Overnight, the USD gained against major currencies as risk aversion returned. Commodities fell though energy stocks suffered most. Concerns also grew on the slow recovery of the US economy after it posted a yearly deficit of USD 1.42 trillion. Meanwhile in New Zealand, consumer spending grew by a modest 0.1% following five quarters of decline.

NZD/USD

NZD/USD (Nov 13 at 06:29 GMT)

0.7335/44 (0.11%)

H 0.7345 L 0.7307

S3	S2	S1	R1	R2	R3
0.7286	0.7305	0.7323	0.7334	0.7352	0.7371

[?]Trend Index	[?]OB/OS Index
Slightly Bullish	Neutral
Data updated on Nov 13 at 06:00 (15-minute timeframe)

[ View NZD/USD Technical Studies ]

Forex: EUR/AUD mixed and trading at 1.6057

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 06:28:00 +0000

The EUR gained ground after recent losses against the AUD to be trading at 1.6057. The pair had initially opened at 1.6078 and posted an intraday high of 1.6085 before dropping to current levels. Support can be found at 1.6000 and resistance is at 1.6500.

In local trade, the AUD has opened lower as risk aversion returns with commodity prices generally down. Other analysts have also maintained that the AUD is overvalued against the USD and may spark a correction. German GDP data is due out today and this may result in further fluctuations in the pair.

AUD/USD (Nov 13 at 06:28 GMT)

0.9256/66 (0.24%)

H 0.9269 L 0.9219

S3	S2	S1	R1	R2	R3
0.9209	0.9232	0.9255	0.9268	0.9291	0.9314

[?]Trend Index	[?]OB/OS Index
Neutral	Neutral
Data updated on Nov 13 at 06:00 (15-minute timeframe)

[ View AUD/USD Technical Studies ]

Forex: AUD/NZD up, trading at 1.2618

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 06:27:00 +0000

The AUD gained on the Kiwi once gain as the pair rose 0.18% to be trading at 1.2618. After opening at 1.2596 the pair posted an intraday high of 1.2636 before settling at 1.2618.

The AUD had generally lost ground as commodity prices fell. There are concerns also that the Aussie may be overvalued by at least 1% and this may place pressure on the currency. However, consumer spending in New Zealand rose a modest 0.1% in the September quarter.

AUD/USD (Nov 13 at 06:24 GMT)

0.9259/61 (0.27%)

H 0.9269 L 0.9219

S3	S2	S1	R1	R2	R3
0.9209	0.9232	0.9255	0.9268	0.9291	0.9314

[?]Trend Index	[?]OB/OS Index
Neutral	Neutral
Data updated on Nov 13 at 06:00 (15-minute timeframe)

[ View AUD/USD Technical Studies ]