And even though I really liked that design, I’ve kind of gotten bored of it, and it started to feel a bit too cluttered and outdated for 2026.

So I used some credits I had on Claude Code to switch things up to something a bit more… simple. A lot of elements are reused or kept, but now the focus is more on the content. I even removed a bunch of extra stuff from the homepage that was just unnecessary, and I replaced the “magic” photo with one I quickly took on my iPhone.

I actually started thinking about this when the well-known Russophile BobbyD took a jab at me, saying I called him fat, and then dug up a photo of me from 2020 when I was still at 136 kg and decided to shame me with it. That’s when it hit me how outdated everything was—both the content (old photos) and the design.

The new design is probably not perfect yet, but if I notice anything that feels off or looks wrong, I’ll tweak it. For about an hour of work though, it’s honestly pretty decent. Claude Code Opus did a great job.

I started by building a design based on the old one using Google Stitch, and then asked Opus to reproduce it. Of course, it’s not exactly like in the mockups, but it’s close enough.

The new design also has both dark mode and light mode, it’s clean and easy to read. I personally like it. Now all that’s left is for me to actually post more on here :)).

Articolul Blog revamp – spring 2026 edition apare prima dată în Filip Iulian Pacurar (Filipac).

Last year I gave it a try: daily workouts, some diet tweaks, but the truth is… I barely saw any results. My weight stayed pretty much the same. After my vacation in America, I think I even put on a few extra kilos.

I wasn’t weighing myself regularly back then, so the real shock came this year. Right before deciding to take things seriously, I stepped on the scale and saw almost 140 kilograms. The heaviest I’ve ever been in my life. It was a wake-up call. And on top of that, I was starting to feel the effects: high blood pressure, getting out of breath just from climbing stairs, feeling heavy and sluggish.

The turning point

One evening I was at a friend’s place. He was going through the same struggles and told me: “I think I’ll try Ozempic. Nothing else works for me anymore.”

That stuck with me. When I got home, I started researching my options. That’s when I found Mounjaro. It was expensive (the first month cost me 2700 lei), but it seemed more effective. I decided to give it a shot.

On April 11th, I weighed in at 137.6 kg. That day I started both the injections and daily workouts.

Just to clarify: Mounjaro isn’t only for diabetes—it’s also designed specifically for obesity. For me, it was like hitting the reset button.

Discipline and daily routines

I have a small home gym—just a treadmill and a few weights, nothing fancy, but enough to keep me moving. And since April, I’ve been consistent. Especially in the first few months, I barely missed a single day.

I also started tracking my calories. At first I set myself at 2000 kcal per day, now I’m down to around 1800. I log everything into an app, which was a game changer. It’s amazing how writing down everything you eat makes you realize how quickly little snacks add up.

Protein became a priority, while carbs got reduced. I set up a system: stricter during weekdays, and on weekends I allow myself a small treat—still within limits.

And I weigh myself every day. Some people say that’s not good, but for me it’s essential. It keeps me accountable. Some days I stagnate or even go up a little, but the weekly average shows me the real progress.

My results so far

• April: –8 kg
• May: –8 kg (down to around 130 kg)
• June: –4.8 kg
• July: –5 kg
• August: –3.25 kg
• September (up to the 23rd): –4.6 kg

In total: –34 kg. Right now I’m at 103.57 kg.

For the first time in years, I feel like I’m truly on the right track. My target is 95 kg, maybe even a little lower if I can get there.

How Mounjaro works for me

Basically, it helps you feel full much faster. When you’re severely overweight, your body stops managing hunger and sugar levels properly. Hormones are out of balance, and no matter how much you try with diet and exercise alone, the results are tiny and discouraging.

Mounjaro gave me back that control. It’s not a “shortcut” or an “easy way out,” like some people might think. It’s medical intervention for when your body can’t do it on its own anymore.

And compared to something like weight-loss surgery (which often fails long-term), this feels like the smarter, safer path.

A different kind of vacation

In August I went on a three-week trip to England. Normally, vacations mean coming home with a few extra kilos. This time, I came back lighter than when I left. That had never happened before in my life, and it was such a great surprise.

Why I’m doing this

I have four kids. I don’t want to die from obesity or diabetes. I was dangerously close to that edge. God helped me avoid diabetes so far, but I know I wasn’t far from it.

I’m not the type to obsess over diets or the gym like a religion. But I do believe it’s my responsibility to take care of my body. Health matters—not just for me, but for my family too.

Conclusion

From April 11th to today (September 23rd), I’ve lost 34 kilograms. And I genuinely like myself more this year. This wasn’t even a New Year’s resolution—it just happened in April, and I’m thankful to God for helping me stay on this path.

I still have a way to go before hitting 95 kg, but I’m on the right road. Most importantly, I’ve rediscovered the joy of taking care of myself.

Thanks for reading. I’ll keep posting updates along the way.

Articolul How I Managed to Lose 34 Kilograms apare prima dată în Filip Iulian Pacurar (Filipac).

Why the change?

In short: time flies. Too often, I get good ideas while driving, on the road, or even at home — but by the time I open WordPress and start typing… the moment is gone, and so is the mood. It’s happened countless times. So now I’d rather just speak the idea on the spot, keep it recorded, and later turn it into text.

What the posts will look like

Most of the time, at the end of the article you’ll find a small audio file (I’ll call it “audio rambling”). That’s the vocal draft everything starts from. I’ll clean it up a bit and publish it as text. Simple for me, more authentic for you.

What this format brings

• Speed: ideas make it to the blog much quicker, without waiting for the “perfect time.”
• Authenticity: the “straight from the head” version is there too, so you can see the process.
• Consistency: I hope this helps me post more often, without losing ideas along the way.

I’ve already tested it

I already made one post to see if this “flow” works. I like how it turned out — it feels easy — so I’m adopting it. Hopefully, it helps me stay more active on the blog. Let’s see how it works out long term. Have a great day!

PS: The audio ramblings will be available only in Romanian

Articolul A new “flow” for my blog posts apare prima dată în Filip Iulian Pacurar (Filipac).

But if you think about it, Apple’s strategy is pretty clear: they’re not trying to reinvent the wheel every fall. Instead, they make small, incremental improvements and release a new model that becomes their standard for the next year. Older models either get cheaper or vanish, and anyone looking to buy an iPhone will naturally check out the latest one.

Why Does Apple Release a New iPhone Every Year?

Not because each generation is revolutionary, but because it keeps the cycle going. Once a year, Apple has a new “flagship product” to showcase. For us as users, that means more options: the newest model, a cheaper older one, or simply sticking with what we already have.

And let’s be honest: nobody is forcing you to upgrade. iPhones get software updates for years, so an iPhone 16 will still work just fine even after the 17 is out.

When Does Upgrading Make Sense?

In my opinion, there are a few clear cases:

• If your phone is more than 3–4 years old, the performance and battery life gap is obvious.
• If a feature you really care about shows up (like 120Hz displays, better cameras, bigger batteries).
• If your current phone simply can’t keep up with your daily needs anymore.

Other than that, upgrading just because “the 17 is out” doesn’t really make sense.

My Personal Experience

Personally, I also enjoy using Google Pixel phones — they’re great devices. But I stay tied to Apple because of how well the Mac and iPhone work together. That integration is hard to beat.

And yes, I get curious with every launch. But realistically, the big revolution already happened. The first iPhone was the real “wow.” Since then, it’s been mostly refinements, not reinventions.

Conclusion

If you’re a tech enthusiast who always wants the latest and greatest, then sure, upgrade every year — it’s your choice. But for most people, a 3–4 year upgrade cycle makes way more sense. That way, when you finally switch, the difference actually feels big and worth the money.

Articolul Is It Worth Upgrading Your iPhone Every Year? A Personal Take apare prima dată în Filip Iulian Pacurar (Filipac).

From what I’ve seen on X, this community can be a bit risky. And why do I say that? Because a lot of the people doing “vibe coding” and calling themselves indie hackers don’t seem too interested in actually learning.

They launch apps without knowing backend development, pick a tech stack just because AI suggested it, don’t properly secure their apps because they don’t fully understand what their code is doing—and the list goes on.

Another thing I’ve noticed is that they really hype each other up. When someone launches a new product, the first buyers are usually other indie hackers, just to “support” their fellow dev. And while that’s nice in theory, it’s not sustainable in the long run. At some point, that bubble is going to pop.

Now, about indie hacker product acquisitions—yeah, I’m not a fan of those either. The prices are usually pretty average. I recently saw an acquisition where the total price was about the same as a mid-level programmer’s salary for six months. The people buying these products are often getting the better deal because $50,000 might sound great as a lump sum, but let’s not forget—the developer probably worked on that project for a year or two, maybe even longer, without making much money in the process. If you add up the time, effort, and investment, you’re barely breaking even.

At the end of the day, AI is amazing, but if someone builds a mediocre app, it’s going to show. Users have higher standards now—we’ve had decades of progress in web apps, and we’re not about to go backward just because AI makes coding easier. And you can see this in the numbers, even though AI is still relatively new in programming.

Programming used to be well-paid because developers brought real knowledge and expertise to the table. But now, if anyone can just pay $20 for Cursor and have AI build something for them, where’s the real value? Where’s the passion for learning, improving, and mastering the craft of coding?

The truth is, a lot of that passion is gone. Instead, it’s just a race to squeeze out another $10 on Stripe. But the best products—the ones that actually last—are the ones that keep evolving and improving. And the same goes for developers. Years from now, the people getting recognition (and better pay) won’t be the ones churning out weak products every week—they’ll be the ones who actually know their stuff and can deliver when it really matters.

To wrap this up: AI is a powerful tool, but it’s just that—a tool. It can make you faster and take care of the boring tasks, but it’s not at the point where it can build a backend while you have no clue how the programming language behind it actually works.

Articolul My Thoughts on Vibe Coding and Indie Hackers apare prima dată în Filip Iulian Pacurar (Filipac).

Direct link where you can also check history.

AI Summary

Insights and Observations from Week #7 Data:

1. General Trends and Performance

• There was an increase in the number of issued visas across all regions, especially in Africa (AF) and Europe (EU).
• Administrative Processing (AP) cases remain high, but given its intermediary role, most will transition to “Issued.”
• Refusals (221g and outright) have increased slightly in Asia (AS) and South America (SA), indicating possible documentation issues or background checks.

2. Top Performing Regions

• Europe (EU) continues to lead in visa issuance numbers.
• Africa (AF) has seen an increase in overall workload, with a large number of transitions from “Ready” to “Issued” and “AP.”
• South America (SA) has a relatively high refusal rate, though the absolute number of cases processed is lower than AF or EU.

3. Consular Performance and Bottlenecks

• The YRV consulate has the highest number of accepted cases (96), indicating a focus on scheduling interviews for upcoming months.
• Some consulates showed delays in moving cases from “InTransit” to “Ready,” which might suggest processing slowdowns.

4. Refusal Trends

• The majority of 221(g) refusals were in Africa and Asia, where applicants likely faced document-related issues or required further administrative checks.
• Outright refusals (final decisions) remained relatively stable, showing no drastic policy shifts.

Takeaways and Key Projections:

1. Visa issuance momentum is continuing, with significant numbers of “Ready” cases moving to “Issued.”
2. The workload in Africa remains high, meaning possible backlogs if processing speeds don’t improve.
3. AP success rates are strong, reinforcing that most cases in this status will result in visa issuance.
4. 221(g) cases need closer monitoring, particularly in regions like Africa and Asia where temporary refusals are common.
5. Visa quota usage is progressing steadily, with South America (SA) leading in percentage completion (52%), while Africa (AF) and Asia (AS) are still below 30% usage.

CEAC Weekly Report – Week #7 (Feb 10 – Feb 16, 2025)

Key Highlights

• Total Cases Processed: 1842 new cases transitioned from NVC to either InTransit or Ready.
• Status Transitions:
  • 871 cases moved from NVC to InTransit, indicating new interview scheduling.
  • 208 cases transitioned directly from NVC to Ready, meaning consulates accepted these cases faster.
  • 363 cases were issued visas, an increase from 345 visas issued last week.
  • Refusal Trends: 161 cases were temporarily refused under 221(g), while 35 cases were outright refused.
  • AP to Issued: 117 cases successfully completed Administrative Processing (AP) and got their visas.
• Consular Processing Activity:
  • YRV (96 cases) and ABD (60 cases) were the top consulates accepting new cases.
  • Africa and Europe had the highest new caseloads.
• Visa Issuance by Region:
  • Europe (EU) issued 6579 visas so far, leading globally.
  • Africa (AF) followed with 5717 issued visas, but has the highest workload.
  • South America (SA) reached 52% of its quota, the highest regional percentage.

Insights and Observations

Regional Performance

• Africa (AF) continues to have a high workload, receiving 503 new InTransit cases this week, meaning an increasing interview volume at consulates.
• Europe (EU) is leading in visa issuance (6579 visas total), showing a steady flow of approvals.
• South America (SA), despite having a smaller volume of cases, has used 52% of its annual visa quota, the highest among regions.
• Asia (AS) and Africa (AF) both experienced a rise in temporary refusals (221g cases), suggesting documentation or additional processing requirements.

Top Consulates and Bottlenecks

• YRV (96 cases) is the most active consulate in terms of new cases, indicating an increase in future visa interviews.
• Some cases remained InTransit longer than expected, potentially signaling delays in consulate acceptance.
• The increase in AP cases (155 cases this week) suggests that more cases are entering the final review phase, with most expected to be issued in the coming weeks.

Visa Issuance Trends

• Administrative Processing (AP) is a positive step: 99% of cases in AP eventually transition to Issued.
• A total of 1073 visas (534 cases) were issued this week, an increase over the previous week (1024 visas).
• Europe (EU) is issuing visas at a faster pace than other regions, while Africa has the most pending workload.

Refusals and Challenges

• 221(g) refusals remain high, especially in Africa (101 cases) and Asia (77 cases).
• Final refusals (35 cases) remain stable, showing no major increase in outright denials.
• Some cases initially refused under 221(g) (17 cases) were later fully refused, meaning applicants were unable to meet visa requirements.

Comparison with the Previous Week (Week #6)

Key Observations:

• Increase in Visa Issuance: 1073 visas issued (Week #7) vs. 1024 visas issued (Week #6).
• More cases transitioned from NVC to InTransit (871 this week vs. 0 last week).
• Refusals under 221(g) slightly decreased (161 cases vs. 173 cases last week).
• Refused cases transitioning to Issued declined (54 this week vs. 67 last week).
• Administrative Processing cases increased, but so did AP-to-Issued transitions.

Chart Observations

• Visa Issuance Trend:
  • Africa and Europe continue to process the most cases.
  • South America has the highest quota usage percentage (52%).
• Refusals:
  • Asia and Africa continue to lead in temporary refusals.
  • Outright refusals remain relatively stable.
• Status Transitions:
  • Higher movement in cases from Ready → Issued and Ready → AP than last week.
  • The flow of cases through AP → Issued remains steady.

Detailed Analysis by Region

Africa (AF)

• Largest number of new cases transitioning from NVC (503 InTransit, 61 Ready).
• Visa issuance: 5717 visas (170 cases issued this week).
• Highest refusal rates, mainly under 221(g) (67 new cases refused under 221g).
• Administrative Processing (AP) is significant (213 cases in AP), but most are expected to transition to Issued.

Asia (AS)

• 285 cases transitioned to InTransit, showing increasing processing activity.
• Visa issuance: 2289 visas issued so far (142 cases this week).
• Refusal rates increasing slightly, especially under 221(g) (53 cases).
• AP cases remain stable (54 cases in AP this week).

Europe (EU)

• 96 cases scheduled for YRV consulate (likely March/April interviews).
• Visa issuance leads globally: 6579 visas (192 cases this week).
• Refusals remain low compared to other regions.
• High efficiency in case processing, moving cases quickly from Ready → Issued.

Oceania (OC)

• Lowest volume of cases, but visa issuance remains stable.
• 8 cases in Administrative Processing.
• Few refusals (1 case under 221g).

South America (SA)

• Quota usage is at 52%, highest of all regions.
• Visa issuance is stable at 737 visas (21 cases issued this week).
• Refusal rates remain steady, but processing speeds are relatively fast.

Refusal Analysis

Refusals Under 221(g)

• Africa (AF) had 67 new 221(g) refusals.
• Asia (AS) followed with 53 cases.
• Some 221(g) cases were later approved (54 cases transitioned to Issued).

Outright Refusals (Final)

• Africa (AF) had the most outright refusals (17 cases).
• Europe (EU) had relatively low outright refusals (5 cases).
• Most refusals are still temporary (221g), with potential for approval in future weeks.

Trends and Projections

1. Visa Issuance Momentum

• Issuance rates are increasing week-over-week.
• AP cases are transitioning to Issued at a high success rate.
• The majority of Ready cases are progressing to Issued.

2. Africa Workload Remains High

• More cases are entering InTransit and Ready stages, meaning consulates need to process faster to avoid bottlenecks.
• High refusal rates indicate applicants need better documentation preparation.

3. Administrative Processing (AP) Success

• AP cases continue to clear successfully, meaning most applicants who enter AP eventually get their visas.
• Expect continued AP-to-Issued transitions in the coming weeks.

4. 221(g) Cases Need Monitoring

• Most 221(g) cases eventually transition to Ready or Issued, but delays can occur.
• Consulates need to ensure timely follow-ups on 221(g) cases.

Final Thoughts

• Visa issuance is improving across regions, especially in Europe and Africa.
• South America is on track to reach its visa quota early.
• Refusals (221g and outright) remain consistent, with Africa and Asia having the most cases.
• Consular processing is moving forward, with YRV leading in new case scheduling.
• Future weeks will focus on clearing backlogs in Administrative Processing and addressing documentation issues in 221(g) cases.

Charts

Cases Processed by Region – Africa led with the highest number of cases processed.

Visas Issued by Region – Europe issued the most visas, followed by Africa and Asia.

Cases in Administrative Processing (AP) by Region – Africa had the most cases in AP, significantly higher than other regions.

Cases Refused (221g) by Region – Africa and Asia had the highest number of refusals under 221(g).

Share of Visas Issued by Region – Europe dominates the share, followed by Africa and Asia.

Share of Cases Refused (221g) by Region – Africa and Asia again had a major share of refusals.

Key Status Transitions – The largest transition was from NVC → InTransit, followed by Ready → Issued.

Articolul CEAC Updates – DV2025 week #7 apare prima dată în Filip Iulian Pacurar (Filipac).

Direct link where you can also check history.

AI Summary

Key Highlights

Total Cases Processed

• Total Cases Processed: 1,035 cases (all cases that underwent a status transition).
• Issued Visas: 1,017 visas issued globally (from 546 cases).
• Administrative Processing (AP) Cases: 294 cases remain in AP, 99% expected to transition to Issued.
• Refusals under 221(g): 275 cases refused under 221(g).

Status Transitions

• Ready → Issued: 344 cases transitioned to “Issued” (1,017 visas).
• AP → Issued: 135 cases cleared Administrative Processing and moved to Issued.
• Ready → Refused221g: 173 cases faced additional review under 221(g).
• InTransit → Ready: 114 cases moved into the “Ready” status for consular processing.

Consular Processing Activity

• Top Consulates by Case Volume:
  • Lomé (LOM): 67 cases (all Africa).
  • Kigali (KGL): 35 cases (Africa).
  • Mauritius (MST): 12 cases (Asia).

Status Change Activity

• Visas Issued by Region:
  • Africa (AF): 360 visas.
  • Asia (AS): 194 visas.
  • Europe (EU): 358 visas.
  • Oceania (OC): 23 visas.
  • South America (SA): 82 visas.
• Administrative Processing (AP):
  • Total AP Cases: 294, with Africa leading (120 cases).
• Refused221g Cases:
  • Total Cases: 275, with Africa (112 cases) and Europe (92 cases) seeing the highest numbers.

Insights and Observations

Regional Performance

• Europe (EU) and Africa (AF) remain the most active regions in visa issuance.
• Asia saw a notable increase in Administrative Processing cases, indicating possible procedural delays.
• Africa handled the most overall workload, processing 67 cases in Lomé and 35 in Kigali.

Top Consulates

• Lomé and Kigali led Africa’s case processing.
• Mauritius processed 12 cases for Asia, showing ongoing activity in the region.

Refusals and Bottlenecks

• Africa (112 cases) and Europe (92 cases) dominate 221(g) refusals, suggesting common documentation issues.
• Total outright refusals remain moderate at 92 cases globally.

Takeaways

• Visa issuance momentum remains strong, with over 1,000 visas issued this week.
• Africa and Europe continue to handle the bulk of cases.
• Asia struggles with increasing AP and 221(g) refusals.
• Case processing volumes remain steady compared to Week #5, suggesting a consistent pace of decision-making.

Detailed Analysis by Region

Africa (AF)

• Cases Processed: 360.
• Visas Issued: 360.
• Refusals under 221(g): 112 cases.

Asia (AS)

• Cases Processed: 194.
• Visas Issued: 194.
• Refusals under 221(g): 53 cases.

Europe (EU)

• Cases Processed: 358.
• Visas Issued: 358.
• Refusals under 221(g): 92 cases.

Oceania (OC)

• Cases Processed: 23.
• Visas Issued: 23.
• Refusals under 221(g): 13 cases.

South America (SA)

• Cases Processed: 82.
• Visas Issued: 82.
• Refusals under 221(g): 5 cases.

Consular Performance

Top Consulates by Case Volume

• Lomé (67 cases)
• Kigali (35 cases)
• Mauritius (12 cases)

Refusal Analysis

Refusals Under 221(g)

• Total Cases: 275, led by Africa (112) and Europe (92).

Outright Refusals (Non-221g)

• Total Cases: 92, with Africa (37) leading.

Trends and Projections

1. Visa Issuance Momentum: Visa issuance remains stable, with over 1,000 visas issued.
2. Africa’s Workload: Continues to be the most active region.
3. AP Success: 99% of cases in Administrative Processing are expected to move to Issued.
4. 221(g) Challenges: Continue to impact Africa and Europe.

Charts

Summary of Charts for Week #6

1. Cases Processed by Region:
   • Africa (AF) and Europe (EU) processed the highest number of cases.
   • Asia (AS) followed, with moderate case volume.
2. Visas Issued by Region:
   • Europe (EU) and Africa (AF) led in visa issuance, continuing their dominance.
3. Cases in Administrative Processing (AP):
   • Africa (AF) had the highest number of cases in AP, suggesting increased processing times.
   • Europe (EU) and Asia (AS) also had notable AP case numbers.
4. Cases Refused (221g) by Region:
   • Africa (AF) and Europe (EU) accounted for most of the 221(g) refusals.
   • Oceania (OC) had a small but notable share of 221(g) refusals.
5. Share of Visas Issued by Region (Pie Chart):
   • Africa (AF) and Europe (EU) together account for the majority of issued visas.
6. Share of Cases Refused (221g) by Region (Pie Chart):
   • Africa (AF) has the highest share of 221(g) refusals, with Europe (EU) close behind.

Key Takeaways

1. Sharp Drop in Case Processing for Africa and Europe
   • Africa’s processed cases fell by 50% (678 → 360), signaling a major slowdown in workload.
   • Europe followed with a drop from 611 → 358 cases.
2. Visa Issuance Also Declined in These Regions
   • Africa: 546 → 360 visas issued (-186 visas).
   • Europe: 611 → 358 visas issued (-253 visas).
3. Asia Maintained Stability
   • Asia processed the same number of cases (194) as the previous week.
   • Administrative Processing (AP) cases dropped significantly from 126 → 56, showing progress.
4. 221(g) Refusals Are Becoming a Bigger Issue
   • Africa’s 221(g) refusals jumped from 83 → 112 cases.
   • Europe nearly doubled from 47 → 92 refusals.
5. Future Trends to Watch
   • The sharp drop in Africa and Europe’s processing volume raises questions about potential backlogs or embassy workload shifts.
   • 221(g) refusals remain a challenge, requiring close monitoring to see if case approvals improve in future weeks.

Articolul CEAC Updates – DV2025 week #6 apare prima dată în Filip Iulian Pacurar (Filipac).

Direct link where you can also check history.

AI Summary – Diversity Visa 2025 – Week #5 (Jan 27 – Feb 2) Report

Key Highlights

Total Cases Processed

• Grand Total Cases: 32 cases processed (after subtracting duplicates).
• Issued Visas: 1,377 visas issued globally (from 709 cases).
• Administrative Processing (AP) Cases: 221 cases remain in AP, 99% expected to transition to Issued.
• Refusals under 221(g): 226 cases refused under 221(g).

Status Transitions

• Ready → Issued: 442 cases transitioned to “Issued” (1,377 visas).
• InTransit → Ready: 233 cases, with Africa (216 cases) leading.
• AP → Issued: 201 cases cleared Administrative Processing.
• Ready → Refused221g: 169 cases faced additional review.

Consular Processing Activity

• Top Consulates by Case Volume:
  • Algiers (ALG): 131 cases (all Africa).
  • Abidjan (ABJ): 42 cases (Africa).
  • Cotonou (COT): 30 cases (Africa).

Status Change Activity

• Visas Issued by Region:
  • Africa (AF): 546 visas.
  • Asia (AS): 123 visas.
  • Europe (EU): 611 visas.
  • Oceania (OC): 17 visas.
  • South America (SA): 80 visas.
• Administrative Processing (AP):
  • Total AP Cases: 221, with Asia leading (126 cases).
• Refused221g Cases:
  • Total Cases: 226, with Africa (83 cases) and Asia (88 cases) seeing the highest numbers.

Insights and Observations

Regional Performance

• Europe (EU) dominates visa issuance, continuing to process cases at a high rate.
• Africa (AF) has the highest case workload, processing more cases than any other region.
• Asia (AS) leads in Administrative Processing cases, suggesting procedural/documentation challenges.

Top Consulates

• Algiers, Abidjan, and Cotonou lead Africa’s case processing.
• Kyiv (KEV) processed 13 cases for Europe, showing ongoing activity in the region.

Refusals and Bottlenecks

• Africa (83 cases) and Asia (88 cases) dominate 221(g) refusals, suggesting common documentation issues.
• Total outright refusals remain moderate at 69 cases globally.

Takeaways

• Momentum Continues: Visa issuance remains strong, increasing from Week #4.
• Africa’s Heavy Workload: Consulates are handling high volumes but face delays.
• AP Remains a Smooth Transition: Most cases in AP will transition to Issued.
• 221(g) Remains a Bottleneck: High refusals indicate potential applicant errors or documentation issues.

Detailed Analysis by Region

Africa (AF)

• Cases Processed: 17.
• Visas Issued: 546.
• Refusals under 221(g): 83 cases.

Asia (AS)

• Cases Processed: 0.
• Visas Issued: 123.
• Refusals under 221(g): 88 cases.

Europe (EU)

• Cases Processed: 14.
• Visas Issued: 611.
• Refusals under 221(g): 47 cases.

Oceania (OC)

• Cases Processed: 1.
• Visas Issued: 17.
• Refusals under 221(g): 1 case.

South America (SA)

• Cases Processed: 0.
• Visas Issued: 80.
• Refusals under 221(g): 7 cases.

Consular Performance

Top Consulates by Case Volume

• Algiers (131 cases)
• Abidjan (42 cases)
• Cotonou (30 cases)

Refusal Analysis

Refusals Under 221(g)

• Total Cases: 226, led by Africa (83) and Asia (88).

Outright Refusals (Non-221g)

• Total Cases: 69, with Africa (30) leading.

Trends and Projections

1. Visa Issuance Momentum: Increasing each week.
2. Africa’s Workload: Continues to grow, requiring better efficiency.
3. AP Success: 99% of cases still transition to Issued.
4. 221(g) Challenges: Persistent in Africa and Asia.

Charts

Summary of Charts for Week #5

1. Cases Processed by Region:
   • Africa handled the most cases, while Asia and South America had minimal activity.
2. Visas Issued by Region:
   • Europe (EU) leads in total visas issued, followed by Africa (AF).
3. Cases in Administrative Processing (AP):
   • Asia has the highest number of cases in AP, indicating ongoing delays.
4. Cases Refused (221g) by Region:
   • Africa and Asia have the most 221(g) refusals, which remain a challenge.
5. Share of Visas Issued by Region (Pie Chart):
   • Europe dominates visa issuance, followed by Africa and Asia.
6. Share of Cases Refused (221g) by Region (Pie Chart):
   • Africa and Asia continue to lead in refusals under 221(g).

Final Insights

1. Visa Issuance Holds Steady Despite Lower Activity
   • While total cases processed dropped significantly, visa issuance remained stable.
   • Europe (EU) continued to dominate with 611 visas issued, followed by Africa (546 visas).
2. Sharp Drop in Case Processing
   • Africa (429 → 17 cases processed) and Europe (338 → 14 cases processed) saw significant declines.
   • Asia and South America had no recorded case processing.
   • This suggests either temporary delays, system slowdowns, or shifts in consular operations.
3. Asia Faces Administrative Processing (AP) Bottleneck
   • Asia’s AP cases surged from 41 to 126, indicating new cases requiring further review.
   • This could point to documentation or procedural hurdles.
4. 221(g) Refusals Increased in Asia
   • Asia saw a sharp rise in 221(g) refusals, jumping from 27 to 88 cases.
   • This highlights potential issues in applicant documentation or procedural requirements.
5. Africa Remains the Most Active Region
   • Even with the decline in cases processed, Africa still handled the most cases and maintained its leadership in overall visa issuance.
6. What This Means for Future Weeks
   • The slowdown in case processing might be temporary and could indicate backlog clearing in upcoming weeks.
   • If visa issuance remains stable despite fewer cases processed, it suggests a shift in focus towards clearing backlog cases already in the system.

Closing Thought

This week’s data suggests a momentary pause in case processing activity, but visa issuance remains consistent. The rise in 221(g) refusals in Asia and administrative processing cases could indicate a bottleneck forming, which will be interesting to watch in the coming weeks.

Articolul CEAC Updates – DV2025 week #5 apare prima dată în Filip Iulian Pacurar (Filipac).

Direct link where you can also check history.

Note: some of those 2nl numbers were included in my post of week #2. Xarthisius does a weekly scan on Friday night noted with Saturday’s date. Since he published his weekly data, CEAC was updated to have some more In Transit cases.

Here’s a diff between the two datasets with a fresh scan on Monday (Jan 20):

Since the consulates are closed today (Martin Luther King Jr. Day), We can assume that all of those extra 887 2nls that are changed since Jan 18 were sent last week right but updated in CEAC after Xarthisius’ latest update, because CEAC currently has some weird delays, I am sure nobody actually sent the 2nl in the weekend.

So whatever number you see below in the 2nl count, just subtract with 887 because those are duplicated in week #3 and this week, at least in my dataset.

AI Summary

Here’s a comprehensive report for Week #4 of the CEAC Diversity Visa 2025 data, including analysis, insights, and supporting visuals:

Key Highlights

Total Cases Processed

• Grand Total Cases: 1,043 cases processed this week.
• Adjusted 2NL count: 156 (1,043 – 887) due to duplicates in the dataset.

Status Transitions

• NVC -> Ready: 810 cases, with the highest activity in EU (314 cases) and AF (235 cases).
• InTransit -> Ready: 642 cases, led by AF (622 cases).
• Ready -> Issued: 389 cases (1,170 visas), dominated by EU (680 visas).

Consular Processing Activity

• Top Consulates by Case Volume:
  • Addis Ababa (ADD): 229 cases (all from Africa).
  • Casablanca (CSB): 162 cases (majority from Africa).
  • Kathmandu (KDU): 160 cases (Asia region leader).

Status Change Activity

• Issued Visas: 1,170 visas issued globally:
  • EU (680 visas) led issuance.
  • AF (336 visas) showed strong activity.
• Administrative Processing (AP): 394 cases in transition; 99% expected to move to “Issued.”
• Refused221g: 207 cases, with AF (96 cases) seeing the most.

Issued Visas by Region

• EU (Europe): 680 visas issued (58.1% of global issuance).
• AF (Africa): 336 visas issued.
• AS (Asia): 113 visas issued.
• OC (Oceania): 1 visa issued.
• SA (South America): 40 visas issued.

Insights and Observations

Regional Performance

• EU (Europe) continued its dominance in visa issuance and processing efficiency.
• AF (Africa) leads in total cases but lags in issuance rates, indicating potential resourcing issues.
• AS (Asia) shows steady progress but faces bottlenecks with 221(g) refusals.

Top Consulates

• Addis Ababa (229 cases) and Casablanca (162 cases) lead in Africa.
• Kathmandu (160 cases) handles most of Asia’s volume.

Refusals and Bottlenecks

• Refusals under 221(g) remain concentrated in EU and AF regions.
• Total outright refusals (non-221g): 34 cases globally, with the majority in AF (17 cases).

Takeaways

• Momentum: Visa issuance is on the rise, with over 1,000 visas issued in a single week.
• Regional Dynamics: Europe excels in efficiency, while Africa continues to manage the bulk of cases.
• AP Efficiency: Administrative Processing transitions remain highly reliable, with a 99% success rate.

Detailed Analysis by Region

Africa (AF)

• Total Cases Processed: 429.
• Visas Issued: 336.
• Refusals under 221(g): 96 cases.

Asia (AS)

• Total Cases Processed: 225.
• Visas Issued: 113.
• Refusals under 221(g): 27 cases.

Europe (EU)

• Total Cases Processed: 338.
• Visas Issued: 680.
• Refusals under 221(g): 75 cases.

Oceania (OC)

• Total Cases Processed: 17.
• Visas Issued: 1.
• Refusals under 221(g): None.

South America (SA)

• Total Cases Processed: 34.
• Visas Issued: 40.
• Refusals under 221(g): 9 cases.

Consular Performance

Top Consulates by Case Volume

• Addis Ababa (229 cases) leads globally.
• Casablanca (162 cases) and Kathmandu (160 cases) follow.

Refusal Analysis

Refusals Under 221(g)

• Total: 207 cases, with Africa leading (96 cases).

Outright Refusals (Non-221g)

• Total: 34 cases, with Africa again leading (17 cases).

Trends and Projections

1. Visa Issuance Momentum: Significant increase in Week #4, with Europe leading.
2. Africa’s Workload: Heavy caseloads persist; efficiency improvements needed.
3. AP Success: Remains a reliable intermediary step to “Issued.”
4. 221(g) Refusals: Continue to affect Europe and Africa disproportionately.

Comparison with Week #3

Key Differences

• Total Visas Issued: Week #4 saw an increase to 1,170 visas from Week #3’s 932.
• Refusals: Slight decrease in 221(g) refusals.
• Regional Trends: Europe continued to excel, while Africa handled the most cases.

Here are the charts summarizing key aspects of Week #4 data:

1. Bar Chart: Cases Processed by Region:
   • Africa leads in total cases processed, followed by Europe and Asia.
2. Bar Chart: Visas Issued by Region:
   • Europe dominates visa issuance, with Africa and Asia following.
3. Bar Chart: Cases in Administrative Processing (AP):
   • Africa has the highest number of cases in AP, indicating heavy activity.
4. Bar Chart: Cases Refused (221g) by Region:
   • Refusals are concentrated in Africa and Europe.
5. Pie Chart: Share of Visas Issued by Region:
   • Europe accounts for the largest share of issued visas.
6. Pie Chart: Share of Cases Refused (221g) by Region:
   • Africa leads in 221(g) refusals, with significant contributions from Europe and Asia.

Notable Highlights

1. Europe’s Leadership in Visa Issuance:
   • Europe issued 680 visas, accounting for 58.1% of global issuance. This demonstrates its consulates’ efficiency in processing cases and highlights its dominance in transitioning cases to “Issued” status.
2. Africa’s Heavy Workload:
   • Africa processed 429 cases, the highest of any region, and issued 336 visas. However, the region continues to face challenges with the highest number of cases in Administrative Processing (194) and 221(g) refusals (96 cases). This indicates the need for improved processing support and resource allocation.
3. Asia’s Steady Growth:
   • Asia showed solid performance, processing 225 cases and issuing 113 visas. However, the region still experienced 27 cases refused under 221(g), which could highlight documentation challenges.
4. Administrative Processing Success:
   • Administrative Processing (AP) remains highly reliable, with a 99% success rate transitioning to ‘Issued’. This indicates consulates are effectively handling cases requiring additional steps.
5. 221(g) Refusals as a Bottleneck:
   • While refusals under 221(g) decreased slightly compared to Week #3, Africa (96 cases) and Europe (75 cases) are still seeing significant volumes. Efforts to address common issues, such as documentation or procedural errors, could help reduce these numbers.
6. Consular Activity Trends:
   • Addis Ababa (229 cases) and Casablanca (162 cases) emerged as top-performing consulates in terms of case volume, showcasing their critical role in Africa’s visa pipeline.
   • Kathmandu (160 cases) led Asia’s processing, highlighting its importance in the region.
7. Week-Over-Week Growth:
   • Visa issuance increased significantly from Week #3, with a jump from 932 to 1,170 visas issued globally. This signals positive momentum in processing efficiency across regions.

Closing Takeaway

The Diversity Visa 2025 program’s Week #4 data reflects strong progress in visa issuance and case processing. While Europe continues to lead in efficiency, Africa’s heavy workload and bottlenecks highlight areas for improvement. These insights underscore the program’s dynamic nature, emphasizing the importance of regional and consular collaboration to sustain momentum.

Articolul CEAC Updates – DV2025 week #4 apare prima dată în Filip Iulian Pacurar (Filipac).

Apparently, today is Blue Monday, the most depressing day of the year. This concept has been debunked many times, so this day isn’t necessarily valid anymore. Anyway, the whole month of January is depressing and cold.

I wanted to go to Starbucks to collect some stars and get myself a coffee to shake off the morning gloom, especially since I woke up at the crack of dawn. But when I got there, the side door was closed. I didn’t feel like walking around to the main entrance, so I got back in my car and grabbed a coffee from McCafe instead. Their flat white is pretty good too.

I was listening to Morning Glory on Rock FM this morning since they’re back from vacation. But after dropping Caleb off at kindergarten, the radio switched to Digi FM. Over there, the two morning show hosts, whom I’d listened to a bit during the Morning Glory break and thought were okay, started mocking Donald Trump. They called him crazy, said he’s going to sign too many executive orders on his first day, and all sorts of things… And I just sat there thinking, what has this world come to? I’m not a die-hard Trump fan, but the man was voted in by an overwhelming majority of his country. Yet two random morning show hosts in a second-to-third world country are mocking the #1 man in the world in terms of power.

It’s been a while since I last drove a white car, and I remembered why I don’t like driving one during this season of mud and dampness.

I wasn’t paying attention this morning, but Bitcoin hit a new all-time high: $110,000. At the same time, though, altcoins are still in a clinical coma.

That’s it for today, though I feel like I wanted to write something else but forgot. Oh, right—I want to try writing more often on the blog this year, both in English and Romanian.

Have a great day!

Articolul Morning thoughts #1 apare prima dată în Filip Iulian Pacurar (Filipac).

Direct link where you can also check history.

AI Summary of the week’s progress

Key Highlights:

1. Total Cases Processed:
   • Grand Total Cases: 1,762.
   • Most cases are from the AF (Africa) region, representing 78.2% of the total.
2. Status Transitions:
   • In Transit: 1,134 cases moved from the National Visa Center (NVC) to consulates, led by AF (867 cases).
   • Ready for Interview: 628 cases reached “Ready” status, with AF (510 cases) and EU (82 cases) having the highest volumes.
   • Issued Visas (People): 1,913 visas issued this week:
     • EU (Europe): 875 individuals.
     • AF (Africa): 445 individuals.
     • AS (Asia): 358 individuals.
     • OC (Oceania): 95 individuals.
     • SA (South America): 139 individuals.
3. Consular Processing Activity:
   • Top Active Consulates:
     • ACC (Accra, Ghana): 300 cases (all from Africa).
     • CSB (Casablanca, Morocco): 208 cases (all from Africa).
     • MRV (Morocco-Rabat): 53 cases (all from Africa).
   • Other significant consulates: ANK (Ankara, Turkey) (33 cases), MTL (Montreal, Canada) (28 cases), and BKK (Bangkok, Thailand) (23 cases).
4. Status Change Activity:
   • AP as Intermediary Step: 207 visas are in the AP status. This step, which precedes the “Issued” status, saw 272 cases transition successfully to “Issued.”
   • Refusals:
     • 190 cases were refused under 221(g), with EU leading (82 cases).
     • Outright refusals remain low at 49 cases.
   • Ready to Issued: 572 cases transitioned directly to “Issued.”
5. Issued Visas by Region:
   • EU (Europe): Leads in issued visas (875 individuals).
   • AF (Africa): 445 individuals issued visas.
   • AS (Asia): 358 individuals issued visas.
   • OC (Oceania): 95 individuals issued visas.
   • SA (South America): 139 individuals issued visas.

Insights and Observations:

1. AP (Administrative Processing):
   • AP is an intermediary step between “Ready” and “Issued” statuses. Most cases in AP transition successfully to “Issued” (99%).
   • This week, 93 new cases entered AP, with EU seeing the highest volume (60 cases).
2. Regional Performance:
   • Africa (AF): While Africa dominates case counts (78.2% of total), issued visas (445 individuals) lag behind Europe.
   • Europe (EU): Efficiently processing cases, issuing 875 visas, the highest across all regions.
   • Asia (AS): Moderate activity with 358 issued visas, though delays remain due to 49 refusals under 221(g).
3. Top Consulates:
   • Accra (ACC) and Casablanca (CSB): Handle the bulk of Africa’s workload but could improve visa issuance rates.
   • Ankara (ANK): Processes both Europe and Asia cases, with 33 cases currently in transition.
4. Refusals and Bottlenecks:
   • 221(g) refusals (190 cases) remain a key issue, particularly in Europe (82 cases) and Asia (49 cases). These cases typically require additional documentation.
5. High Visa Issuance Volume:
   • With 1,913 visas issued, this week shows strong progress, particularly in Europe and Africa, which account for 68.9% of all issued visas.

Takeaways:

• Efficient AP Transition: The high success rate of cases moving from AP to Issued highlights that AP is functioning as a standard intermediary step.
• Resource Allocation: African consulates may require additional resources to keep pace with Europe’s faster issuance rates.
• Refusal Mitigation: A focus on reducing 221(g) refusals through better documentation requirements could streamline processing, especially in Asia and Europe.

Detailed Analysis by Region

1. Africa (AF)

• Cases Processed:
  • Dominates the dataset with 1,377 cases (78.2% of total cases processed).
  • Leading consulates include Accra (ACC) with 300 cases and Casablanca (CSB) with 208 cases.
• Visa Issuance:
  • 445 visas issued (23.3% of the total issued visas). This includes individuals from multi-member cases.
  • High volume of cases in “In Transit” (867 cases) and “Ready” (510 cases), suggesting heavy ongoing activity.
• Refusals:
  • 40 cases were refused under 221(g) (second highest globally).
  • 10 outright refusals remain low compared to other regions.

2. Europe (EU)

• Cases Processed:
  • 135 cases processed, representing 7.7% of the total.
• Visa Issuance:
  • Leads globally with 875 visas issued (45.7% of total issued visas).
  • Efficient transition from “Ready” to “Issued” and from “AP” to “Issued” reflects strong processing systems in European consulates.
• Refusals:
  • 82 cases under 221(g), the highest globally. These are likely tied to additional document requirements or procedural delays.

3. Asia (AS)

• Cases Processed:
  • 212 cases processed, making up 12% of the total.
• Visa Issuance:
  • 358 visas issued (18.7% of total), ranking third globally.
  • Moderate case transition from “Ready” (28 cases) to “Issued.”
• Refusals:
  • 49 cases refused under 221(g), indicating procedural hurdles or incomplete case submissions.

4. Oceania (OC)

• Cases Processed:
  • Only 8 cases (0.45% of the total).
  • Active consulates: Sydney (SYD) processed 6 cases and issued 95 visas.
• Visa Issuance:
  • 95 visas issued, reflecting a high success rate relative to cases processed.
• Refusals:
  • Low refusal rate, with only 7 outright refusals.

5. South America (SA)

• Cases Processed:
  • 30 cases (1.7% of the total).
  • Active consulates include BNS (Buenos Aires) with 4 cases and PTM (Port Moresby) with 2 cases.
• Visa Issuance:
  • 139 visas issued, a strong performance given the low case count.
• Refusals:
  • 10 cases refused under 221(g), which is notable given the small total case count.

Deeper Insights into AP (Administrative Processing)

• AP Breakdown by Region:
  • Europe (EU): 60 cases in AP (highest globally).
  • Asia (AS): 14 cases in AP.
  • Africa (AF): Only 17 cases in AP, showcasing efficiency at transitioning cases to “Issued.”
• AP to Issued Transition:
  • 272 cases transitioned from AP to “Issued” this week, a success rate of over 99%. This supports the corrected interpretation that AP is primarily a standard intermediary step.

Consular Performance

Top Consulates by Case Count:

• Accra (ACC, Ghana): 300 cases (highest globally).
• Casablanca (CSB, Morocco): 208 cases.
• Ankara (ANK, Turkey): 33 cases, serving as a key hub for both Europe and Asia cases.

Top Consulates by Visa Issuance (Individuals):

• EU: Consulates like Warsaw (WRW) and Frankfurt (FRN) lead the charge in Europe.
• AF: Accra and Casablanca remain dominant.
• AS: Bangkok (BKK) is a key consulate.

Refusal Analysis

Refusals Under 221(g):

• Europe (EU): 82 cases lead globally.
• Asia (AS): 49 cases reflect ongoing challenges in documentation.
• Efforts to streamline document submission and reduce case errors could improve these metrics.

Outright Refusals (Non-221(g)):

• Only 49 cases outright refused globally, indicating strong applicant preparedness overall.

Trends and Projections

1. Visa Issuance Momentum:
   • With 1,913 visas issued this week, the program is on track for strong performance. Europe’s dominance suggests well-organized consular operations.
2. Africa’s Workload:
   • With over 78% of cases in the pipeline, African consulates may require additional resources to maintain issuance rates comparable to Europe.
3. AP Success:
   • The efficiency of transitioning cases from AP to “Issued” suggests this process is well-integrated globally.
4. Improving 221(g) Metrics:
   • Targeted efforts to reduce 221(g) refusals, especially in Europe and Asia, could help accelerate visa issuance timelines.

Charts

Here are four charts summarizing the key statistics for Diversity Visa 2025 Week #3:

1. Cases Processed by Region: Africa (AF) leads with the highest number of processed cases, followed by Asia (AS) and Europe (EU).
2. Visas Issued by Region: Europe (EU) issued the most visas (individuals), while Africa (AF) and Asia (AS) also issued significant numbers.
3. Cases in Administrative Processing (AP): Europe (EU) has the highest number of cases in AP, which is a transitional step toward issuance.
4. Cases Refused (221g): Europe (EU) also leads in refused cases, followed by Asia (AS) and Africa (AF).

Pie Chart: Share of Visas Issued by Region:

• Highlights the proportional distribution of issued visas across regions. Europe (EU) leads, followed by Africa (AF) and Asia (AS).

Pie Chart: Share of Cases Refused (221g) by Region:

• Shows the proportion of cases refused under 221g across regions. Europe (EU) has the largest share, with Asia (AS) and Africa (AF) following.

Bar Chart: Key Status Transitions:

• Illustrates the transitions between key statuses. “NVC -> InTransit” is the most frequent, followed by “NVC -> Ready” and “Ready -> Issued.”

Comparison with the previous week

To compare the data between Week #2 (ending January 12) and Week #3 (ending January 18), I’ll highlight the differences and present the results in charts and tables. Let’s break it into the following categories:

Key Comparisons

1. Status Transitions
   • Compare transitions like “Ready -> Issued,” “Ready -> AP,” etc., across weeks to identify trends in movement between statuses.
2. Regional Activity
   • Assess shifts in regional activity to see which regions showed significant increases or decreases.
3. Overall Status Changes
   • Evaluate the total numbers of visas issued, cases refused, or AP cases to identify changes in output.
4. Consulate Transitions
   • Review consulate-specific transitions to see where movement has occurred week-over-week.

The chart above visualizes the week-over-week changes in status transitions, highlighting which transitions saw increases or decreases in total counts from Week #2 to Week #3.

For example:

• “Ready -> Issued” saw an increase of 20 cases.
• “Ready -> AP” increased by 18 cases.
• “Ready -> Refused221g” increased by 20 cases.
• “AP -> Issued” increased by 9 cases.

The chart and text provide a comprehensive comparison of key status transitions between Week #2 and Week #3 of the Diversity Visa 2025 program.

Observations:

• Increased Activity: All major transitions (e.g., “Ready -> Issued,” “Ready -> AP,” and “Ready -> Refused221g”) saw increases in Week #3.
• Key Transition Growth:
  • The “Ready -> Issued” transition rose by 20 cases, indicating more cases moving successfully to issuance.
  • The “AP -> Issued” transition increased by 9 cases, showing ongoing progress in clearing AP cases.
• Slight Rise in Refusals: Both 221(g) refusals and outright refusals (Ready -> Refused) increased slightly, suggesting some bottlenecks or documentation issues.

The chart and text provide a clear comparison of regional activity between Week #2 and Week #3 for the Diversity Visa 2025 program.

Observations:

1. Africa (AF):
   • Experienced the largest growth in total cases processed (+47 cases).
   • Continues to dominate in overall activity.
2. Asia (AS):
   • Increased by 30 cases, reflecting improved processing momentum.
3. Europe (EU):
   • Added 25 cases, showing steady activity and strong issuance rates.
4. Oceania (OC) & South America (SA):
   • Both regions saw minor increases (+6 cases each), remaining relatively stable.

Final Thoughts on Performance: Diversity Visa 2025 (Week #3 vs Week #2)

1. Overall Improvements

• Increased Throughput: Across all regions, Week #3 demonstrated higher case activity with increased transitions to key statuses like “Ready -> Issued” and “AP -> Issued.”
• Better Regional Performance: Africa (AF), Asia (AS), and Europe (EU) all saw notable increases in activity, reflecting better processing momentum at their respective consulates.

2. Strong Issuance Pipeline

• The steady growth in “Ready -> Issued” transitions, alongside the significant number of cases moving from “AP -> Issued,” highlights that most regions are effectively advancing cases toward successful outcomes.
• Administrative Processing (AP) continues to function as a transitional status rather than a bottleneck, with nearly all AP cases ultimately transitioning to “Issued.”

3. Bottlenecks in Refusals

• While the overall number of refusals remains low, the slight uptick in 221(g) refusals (+20 cases in Week #3) suggests opportunities for better preparation and documentation by applicants.
• Regions like Europe (EU) and Asia (AS) still see the highest refusal rates, indicating that certain consulates may face region-specific challenges.

4. Regional Observations

• Africa (AF): Maintains the highest volume of cases, but the percentage of issued visas lags compared to Europe. This suggests African consulates might need additional resources to match Europe’s efficiency.
• Europe (EU): Leads in the absolute number of issued visas, reflecting its high processing efficiency and lower refusal rates for outright refusals.
• Asia (AS): Shows steady progress but still has significant refusals under 221(g), pointing to documentation or procedural challenges.

5. Recommendations

• Focus on Africa: Given the sheer volume of cases, African consulates need enhanced support and staffing to prevent future backlogs and align their issuance rates with other regions.
• Reduce Refusals: Targeted education campaigns for applicants in regions with high 221(g) refusals (e.g., Asia and Europe) could help improve documentation and preparedness.
• Sustain Momentum: Maintaining the pace of case transitions seen in Week #3 will be crucial to achieving program goals.

In summary, Week #3 was a productive week with increased activity, higher visa issuance, and steady progress across regions. Continued focus on efficiency and addressing bottlenecks can ensure sustained success for the Diversity Visa 2025 program.

Articolul CEAC Updates – DV2025 week #3 apare prima dată în Filip Iulian Pacurar (Filipac).

I really like adding the data on Github GIST as I can update every day and still have a history of how things progressed daily.

Without further ado, here are the updates for DV2025 from CEAC for week #2 for the fiscal year 2025 (Jan 7 – Jan 12, 2025)

Direct link where you can also check history.

AI Summary

Here’s a summary and key insights from the provided CEAC Diversity Visa (DV) 2025 data for the Week #2 update:

Status Transitions Overview

• Ready → Issued: 300 cases transitioned to issued, with the largest contributions from:
  • EU: 118 cases
  • AS: 90 cases
  • AF: 51 cases
• Ready → AP (Administrative Processing): 262 cases, highest transitions from:
  • AF: 84 cases
  • AS: 83 cases
  • EU: 70 cases
• Ready → Refused221g: 200 cases, largest from:
  • EU: 71 cases
  • AS: 62 cases
  • AF: 52 cases
• AP → Issued: 91 cases, with AF dominating at 78 cases.

Consulate Transitions

• EU Region: Leads in consulate movements with 8 transitions, such as:
  • NVC → HNK (Hong Kong): 2 cases.
  • Several smaller consulate changes in EU and AF.

Status Change Activity (By Region)

• Issued Visas:
  • Total: 423 cases (835 individuals).
  • Regional breakdown:
    • EU: 145 cases (330 individuals) – highest activity.
    • AF: 139 cases (242 individuals).
    • AS: 93 cases (167 individuals).
• Refused Cases: 55 total cases.
  • Majority in AF (25 cases) and AS (17 cases).
• Administrative Processing (AP): 285 cases with:
  • AF: 93 cases (highest).
  • AS: 84 cases.
  • EU: 80 cases.

Key Regions for Activity

• Most Status Transitions: AF (319 transitions).
• Most Issued Visas: EU (145 cases).
• Most Cases in Administrative Processing: AF (93 cases).

2NL Notifications (Interviews Scheduled)

• Only 1 case notified for EU at the HNK (Hong Kong) consulate.
  This low number suggests limited interviews scheduled this week.

Key Insights

1. EU dominates in issued visas this week, but AF has the highest overall activity, especially in administrative processing cases.
2. Refused221g cases (temporary refusals needing additional documents) remain significant, especially in EU (71 cases).
3. Case numbers processed so far:
   • EU up to 12,000, AF up to 22,500, and other regions are within their respective limits.

This summary highlights EU’s leadership in issued visas and AF’s prominence in status transitions, particularly in administrative processing.

Articolul CEAC Updates – DV2025 week #2 apare prima dată în Filip Iulian Pacurar (Filipac).

That’s how we’ve done it with every car:

• Audi – During a work break, Cătălina and I went to see the car. We liked it, we bought it. It lasted until it was totaled. Good car.
• Touran – We went one evening to see it, in the yard of an apartment block, drove it around a bit, shook hands on the deal. The car is still running in town, and whoever owns it is very happy with it.
• Mazda – We got it from a car dealer, the first car we saw, bought on the same day. It’s still running, but the DPF needs fixing so it can “perform at its best” .

But since our family is growing in December, we’ve reached the point where we no longer fit in the Mazda. We need 7 seats.

Initially, we were looking for a VW Transporter, a minivan, but I couldn’t find something good and also have the money at the time, so we kept postponing and saving for one.

Until one day, someone from Arad posted an ad for an unusual car, one I wouldn’t have found otherwise if they hadn’t mentioned in the ad that they were open to a trade for a Transporter.

It’s an American car, the only one of its kind registered in Romania: a VW Routan. I didn’t even know it existed. It’s actually a car made by Chrysler under the VW badge, an attempt by VW to enter the American market.

I hesitated a bit because it’s the biggest engine I’ve ever had, and also because most cars from the US are totaled, repaired, and brought to Europe.

But I figured that, overall, this car should last us at least a year, so I accepted the risk of losing 8,000 euros. It’s just like in investments: risk-reward analysis.

After some good analysis and a “YOLO” moment, we decided to buy it.

I’m not the type to fuss over cars, always have the oil changed on time, or replace a strut as soon as I hear a noise. If possible, I’ll drive the car from A to B until the wheel falls off. I don’t like spending money on something that depreciates anyway.

So I’m not concerned when someone says, “If X breaks, you won’t find parts for it.” Look, if I really need something, I’ll find Chrysler parts (the original car) in Romania, or worst-case scenario, I’ll find them on eBay and wait longer for them to arrive. We drove the Mazda for ages with the DPF warning on because a new DPF costs 4,500 euros without labor. I’m not crazy enough to pay that much for a repair.

So, in conclusion, I don’t buy a car based on:

a) how easy it is to find parts b) how cheap the parts are c) always worrying it might break d) worrying about fuel consumption e) worrying about how expensive the tax is

For me and my family, a car is a necessity, and that’s it. This car came at the right time, and I also succeeded in not spending too much on it (considering that next year we’ll have our interview and move to the USA). We all fit in, including the baby on the way, and we even have a spare seat. Given where we are as a family, this car fit us like a glove.

That’s all. Safe travels, colleagues! AR21SUA out.

PS: Cătălina came up with the idea for the license plate. I wanted to keep the old one, but she said, since it’s an American car, why not go with “USA” or “SUA” .

Articolul “If it breaks…” – our new car apare prima dată în Filip Iulian Pacurar (Filipac).

There’s something “unique” about social platforms that makes you feel good: followers.

I don’t care about the people who follow me, or more precisely, their numbers. I care about having a place where I can write what I want without being afraid of getting banned.

For example, YouTubers are now looking for new platforms to stream on because YouTube is woke and shuts down streams for any minor reason. Twitch isn’t much better, and TikTok has all sorts of ridiculous rules, and so on.

But what many people don’t understand is that if you don’t have your own platform, you’re always “at risk.” Any platform, when it gets big enough, has to play by the rules of the EU or some other governing entity. Rumble, X, they all get caught in places like Brazil or other countries. No matter how hard you fight the system, at some point, you have to compromise to function as a social platform.

The safest platforms are the ones you build yourself: a blog, a private streaming service, etc.

But again, a blog isn’t attractive because you don’t get that gratification, you can’t compare yourself with others because… it’s just you on your platform.

But you know how it goes—what’s new is cool, but eventually, the cycle turns, and what’s old becomes cool again. I have a feeling that’s how it’ll be with blogs and other private personal platforms too.

Articolul Your own platform is the safest bet apare prima dată în Filip Iulian Pacurar (Filipac).

One day about two weeks ago, an error appeared on our refrigerator and it stopped cooling at all. It had never done this before, and the error code wasn’t even listed in the instruction manual. To make matters worse, it had just gone past its 5-year warranty period. Yep, 5 years, we had an extended warranty included. We called the Beko service center, and they scheduled an appointment for us. More on that towards the end. But just like that, our refrigerator was ready for the “doctor.”

But it was mid-August, with tropical heat outside, not a good time to be without a refrigerator. So, Cata and I decided to get a mini-fridge until the service guys came to see what was wrong with the refrigerator. Said and done, we went to Media Galaxy and bought a mini-fridge.

This little one worked okay; we could at least put milk in it or a few basic things that any civilized person has in their fridge. By the way, the days without a refrigerator made us wonder how people used to manage in the old days without a fridge during the hot months. It seems like a basic thing that’s impossible to live without today. Anyway, let’s get back to the story.

While waiting for the service to come home and diagnose (for a fee) what was wrong with the old clunker, I kept looking at refrigerators online. And I thought that every cloud has a silver lining, maybe we could get ourselves a refrigerator that makes ice. And I found it. A bit expensive, but in the end (after about 5 minutes), I convinced Cata to order it. We chose Altex online, and theoretically, a product in stock in Arad should have been delivered on the same day or, at most, the next day, but it took from Monday to Friday morning.

Friday morning, the new refrigerator arrived, the delivery guys were very unprofessional, they left the fridge on the terrace and said they couldn’t handle it anymore, that it wouldn’t fit through the door, that they weren’t allowed to bring it in without the packaging, all sorts of excuses. This even though we paid for delivery “with 2 people to your home.” Anyway, Cata and I managed to get it into the kitchen. Very nice of Altex to let a pregnant woman struggle… but we succeeded, we had the new refrigerator in the house.

But wait, I forgot to tell you a detail that changes the course of the story: on Wednesday, a few days before the new fridge was delivered, Cata calls me from the kitchen while I was working: FILIP, the fridge is working, it’s back on. Apparently, the old fridge went through a defrost cycle and then started cooling again. So, here’s where we were: a large side-by-side fridge working, a mini-fridge next to it also working, and another slightly larger fridge on the way.

So, we kind of rushed into buying a mini-fridge and another new super-expensive fridge because we didn’t have the patience to let the old fridge go through a defrost cycle.

But every cloud has a silver lining: now we have a mini-fridge upstairs in the room where we work out, we gave the old fridge to my parents, and we have a new fridge that also makes ice – it’s everything I’ve ever dreamed of.

And to get back to the little detail about the Beko technicians – tomorrow it will be 3 weeks since we called and have an appointment, but no one has come yet to see what’s wrong with the fridge that actually works. This even though the fridge is no longer under warranty and we were supposed to pay for the diagnosis – 120 lei and 1 leu per kilometer for travel from their headquarters to our home. I wonder, if we really needed service for the fridge during a heatwave, what would we have done these 3 weeks? I’m really curious if anyone will call me again or if they’ll just forget about it.

Articolul The Refrigerator Story apare prima dată în Filip Iulian Pacurar (Filipac).

If you can carry your phone and wallet to the church or everytime you leave the house, you can bring your Bible as well.

The digital version helps but it is not the same thing, not the same feeling.

Later edit: And yes, my oldest son Joshua reads Romanian and English and he takes his Bible to the Church as well.

Articolul I might be old… apare prima dată în Filip Iulian Pacurar (Filipac).

Statistics since 2024-06-22 [latest https://dvcharts.xarthisius.xyz data publish] (Generated 2024-06-29 20:12:03.520754 UTC)

New 2NLs

The 70 2nls on the last report remained unchanged.

+---------+----+----+----+----+----+
|   Con   | AF | AS | EU | OC | SA |
+---------+----+----+----+----+----+
|    -    | -  | -  | -  | -  | -  |
| Transit | 70 | 0  | 0  | 0  | 0  |
|    -    | -  | -  | -  | -  | -  |
|  Total  | 70 | 0  | 0  | 0  | 0  |
+---------+----+----+----+----+----+
Grand Total 70

Status transitions

Since June 21, the following status transitions have happened for current cases:

+-------------------------+-------+-----+----+-----+----+----+
|        Transition       | Count |  AF | AS |  EU | OC | SA |
+-------------------------+-------+-----+----+-----+----+----+
|     Ready -> Issued     |  348  | 156 | 73 | 100 | 17 | 2  |
|       AP -> Issued      |  245  | 172 | 29 |  40 | 2  | 2  |
|    InTransit -> Ready   |  200  |  90 | 80 |  30 | 0  | 0  |
|   Ready -> Refused221g  |  111  |  56 | 29 |  19 | 4  | 3  |
|  Refused221g -> Issued  |  102  |  34 | 32 |  31 | 5  | 0  |
|     NVC -> InTransit    |   70  |  70 | 0  |  0  | 0  | 0  |
|       Ready -> AP       |   37  |  31 | 2  |  3  | 0  | 1  |
|     Ready -> Refused    |   34  |  25 | 2  |  5  | 2  | 0  |
|    Refused221g -> AP    |   31  |  16 | 7  |  3  | 0  | 5  |
|   Refused221g -> Ready  |   11  |  10 | 1  |  0  | 0  | 0  |
|  Refused221g -> Refused |   10  |  9  | 0  |  0  | 0  | 1  |
|    Transfer -> Ready    |   4   |  1  | 1  |  2  | 0  | 0  |
|       Issued -> AP      |   3   |  2  | 0  |  1  | 0  | 0  |
|    Ready -> Transfer    |   2   |  1  | 0  |  1  | 0  | 0  |
|       AP -> Ready       |   2   |  1  | 1  |  0  | 0  | 0  |
| Transfer -> Refused221g |   1   |  1  | 0  |  0  | 0  | 0  |
|  Issued -> Refused221g  |   1   |  0  | 1  |  0  | 0  | 0  |
|     Refused -> Ready    |   1   |  0  | 0  |  1  | 0  | 0  |
+-------------------------+-------+-----+----+-----+----+----+

Consulate transitions

This section covers all consulate transitions as well as transitions from No Consulate (NVC) to a specific consulate. Previous statistics update 2nls marked as in transit might appear in this section.

+------------+-------+----+----+----+----+----+
| Transition | Count | AF | AS | EU | OC | SA |
+------------+-------+----+----+----+----+----+
| NVC -> DKR |   70  | 70 | 0  | 0  | 0  | 0  |
| NVC -> ABD |   68  | 0  | 68 | 0  | 0  | 0  |
| NVC -> MTL |   25  | 4  | 12 | 9  | 0  | 0  |
| NVC -> ANK |   20  | 0  | 0  | 20 | 0  | 0  |
| NVC -> LUS |   8   | 8  | 0  | 0  | 0  | 0  |
| NVC -> PIA |   4   | 4  | 0  | 0  | 0  | 0  |
| NVC -> ANT |   4   | 4  | 0  | 0  | 0  | 0  |
| CRO -> YDE |   1   | 1  | 0  | 0  | 0  | 0  |
| CRO -> DOH |   1   | 1  | 0  | 0  | 0  | 0  |
| ANT -> NRB |   1   | 1  | 0  | 0  | 0  | 0  |
| LND -> DOH |   1   | 1  | 0  | 0  | 0  | 0  |
| JAK -> ANT |   1   | 1  | 0  | 0  | 0  | 0  |
| NPL -> KDU |   1   | 0  | 1  | 0  | 0  | 0  |
| WRW -> ULN |   1   | 0  | 0  | 1  | 0  | 0  |
| WRW -> AKD |   1   | 0  | 0  | 1  | 0  | 0  |
| NVC -> TAL |   1   | 0  | 0  | 1  | 0  | 0  |
| AKD -> KLL |   1   | 0  | 0  | 1  | 0  | 0  |
+------------+-------+----+----+----+----+----+
Region with most status transitions: AF (675)
Region with most consulate transitions: AF (95)

Status change activity

Visas are issued/refused almost daily, also cases might transition to “ready for interview”, in transit, administrative processing, or another status from the previous week/scan. Here’s this status change activity for the current report.

+-------------+------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+---------+-------+----------+
|    Status   |   Count    |     AF    |     AS    |     EU    |    OC   |   SA  | Winner:) |
+-------------+------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+---------+-------+----------+
|    Issued   | 695 (1330) | 362 (593) | 134 (258) | 171 (415) | 24 (58) | 4 (6) |    AF    |
|   Refused   |  44 (61)   |  34 (47)  |   2 (2)   |   5 (9)   |  2 (2)  | 1 (1) |    AF    |
|    Ready    | 218 (419)  | 102 (179) |  83 (173) |  33 (67)  |  0 (0)  | 0 (0) |    AF    |
|  InTransit  |  70 (70)   |     70    |     0     |     0     |    0    |   0   |    AF    |
|      AP     |  71 (137)  |     49    |     9     |     7     |    0    |   6   |    AF    |
| Refused221g | 113 (177)  |     57    |     30    |     19    |    4    |   3   |    AF    |
|   Returned  |   0 (0)    |     0     |     0     |     0     |    0    |   0   |   None   |
+-------------+------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+---------+-------+----------+
Case numbers outside (parenthesis), number of persons in (parenthesis).

Consulates that accepted cases

Previously these cases might have been marketed as “in transit”, meaning that KCC sent those cases to the specific consulates, but those consulates had not accepted them yet. Now they finally got assigned a consulate so we know which In Transit cases were accepted.

+---------------------------------------+-------+
|               Consulate               | Count |
+---------------------------------------+-------+
|          DKR (Dakar, Senegal)         |   70  |
| ABD (Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates) |   68  |
|         MTL (Montreal, Canada)        |   25  |
|          ANK (Ankara, Turkey)         |   20  |
|          LUS (Lusaka, Zambia)         |   8   |
|        PIA (Praia, Cape Verde)        |   4   |
|     ANT (Antananarivo, Madagascar)    |   4   |
|         TAL (Tallinn, Estonia)        |   1   |
+---------------------------------------+-------+

These statistics are based on freshly updated non-whole cases from 1 to the following max case number, depending on the region:

• EU – up to 30000
• AF – up to 75000
• AS – up to 15000
• NA – up to 20
• SA – up to 3150
• OC – up to 2000

As soon as the new Visa Bulletin is published each month, the maximum case numbers are updated accordingly.

Articolul DV2024 statistics update – 30th of June, 2024 apare prima dată în Filip Iulian Pacurar (Filipac).

I will try to keep the same format every time I post, but as I perfect my script I might change the format or remove/add new things. Without further ado, here’s today’s update.

Since the last update on 2024-06-22, here are the things that changed regarding DV2024 cases.

Statistics since 2024-06-21 [latest https://dvcharts.xarthisius.xyz data publish]
(Generated 2024-06-25 14:48:35.395673 UTC)..

New 2NLs

Africa region saw 70 new 2NLs, we do not know to which embassy yet until that/those embassies will accept those cases. Here’s the raw data from my script.

2NLs since 2024-06-21 [latest https://dvcharts.xarthisius.xyz data publish] (Generated 2024-06-25 14:48:11.803277 UTC)
+---------+----+----+----+----+----+
|   Con   | AF | AS | EU | OC | SA |
+---------+----+----+----+----+----+
|    -    | -  | -  | -  | -  | -  |
| Transit | 70 | 0  | 0  | 0  | 0  |
|    -    | -  | -  | -  | -  | -  |
|  Total  | 70 | 0  | 0  | 0  | 0  |
+---------+----+----+----+----+----+
Grand Total 70

Status transitions

Since June 21, the following status transitions have happened for current cases:

+-----------------------+-------+----+----+----+----+----+
|       Transition      | Count | AF | AS | EU | OC | SA |
+-----------------------+-------+----+----+----+----+----+
|      Ready -> AP      |  146  | 71 | 21 | 54 | 0  | 0  |
|      AP -> Issued     |  133  | 74 | 20 | 36 | 2  | 1  |
|    Ready -> Issued    |   88  | 15 | 45 | 25 | 3  | 0  |
|    NVC -> InTransit   |   70  | 70 | 0  | 0  | 0  | 0  |
|  Ready -> Refused221g |   69  | 23 | 28 | 15 | 1  | 2  |
| Refused221g -> Issued |   33  | 11 | 8  | 12 | 2  | 0  |
|   Refused221g -> AP   |   27  | 9  | 15 | 2  | 1  | 0  |
|    Ready -> Refused   |   15  | 8  | 1  | 5  | 1  | 0  |
|  Refused221g -> Ready |   10  | 6  | 3  | 1  | 0  | 0  |
|   InTransit -> Ready  |   8   | 8  | 0  | 0  | 0  | 0  |
|      AP -> Ready      |   5   | 4  | 1  | 0  | 0  | 0  |
|   Transfer -> Ready   |   3   | 0  | 1  | 2  | 0  | 0  |
| Issued -> Refused221g |   1   | 0  | 1  | 0  | 0  | 0  |
+-----------------------+-------+----+----+----+----+----+

Consulate transitions

This section covers all consulate transitions as well as transitions from No Consulate (NVC) to a specific consulate. Previous statistics update 2nls marked as in transit might appear in this section.

+------------+-------+----+----+----+----+----+
| Transition | Count | AF | AS | EU | OC | SA |
+------------+-------+----+----+----+----+----+
| NVC -> LUS |   8   | 8  | 0  | 0  | 0  | 0  |
| LND -> DOH |   1   | 1  | 0  | 0  | 0  | 0  |
| NPL -> KDU |   1   | 0  | 1  | 0  | 0  | 0  |
| WRW -> ULN |   1   | 0  | 0  | 1  | 0  | 0  |
| WRW -> AKD |   1   | 0  | 0  | 1  | 0  | 0  |
| FRN -> WRW |   1   | 0  | 0  | 1  | 0  | 0  |
| AKD -> KLL |   1   | 0  | 0  | 1  | 0  | 0  |
+------------+-------+----+----+----+----+----+
Region with most status transitions: AF (299)
Region with most consulate transitions: AF (9)

Status change activity

Visas are issued/refused almost daily, also cases might transition to “ready for interview”, in transit, administrative processing, or another status from the previous week/scan. Here’s this status change activity for the current report.

+-------------+-----------+-----------+----------+----------+--------+-------+----------+
|    Status   |   Count   |     AF    |    AS    |    EU    |   OC   |   SA  | Winner:) |
+-------------+-----------+-----------+----------+----------+--------+-------+----------+
|    Issued   | 254 (507) | 100 (162) | 73 (132) | 73 (193) | 7 (19) | 1 (1) |    AF    |
|   Refused   |  15 (26)  |   8 (15)  |  1 (1)   |  5 (9)   | 1 (1)  | 0 (0) |    AF    |
|    Ready    |  26 (48)  |  18 (31)  |  5 (9)   |  3 (8)   | 0 (0)  | 0 (0) |    AF    |
|  InTransit  |  70 (70)  |     70    |    0     |    0     |   0    |   0   |    AF    |
|      AP     | 173 (374) |     80    |    36    |    56    |   1    |   0   |    AF    |
| Refused221g |  70 (106) |     23    |    29    |    15    |   1    |   2   |    AS    |
|   Returned  |   0 (0)   |     0     |    0     |    0     |   0    |   0   |   None   |
+-------------+-----------+-----------+----------+----------+--------+-------+----------+
Case numbers outside (parenthesis), number of persons in (parenthesis).

Consulates that accepted cases

Previously these cases might have been marketed as “in transit”, meaning that KCC sent those cases to the specific consulates, but those consulates had not accepted them yet. Now they finally got assigned a consulate so we know which In Transit cases were accepted.

Consulate accepted cases
+-----------+-------+
| Consulate | Count |
+-----------+-------+
|    LUS    |   8   |
+-----------+-------+

These statistics are based on freshly updated non-whole cases from 1 to the following max case number, depending on the region:

• EU – up to 30000
• AF – up to 75000
• AS – up to 15000
• NA – up to 20
• SA – up to 3150
• OC – up to 2000

As soon as the new Visa Bulletin is published each month, the maximum case numbers are updated accordingly.

Articolul DV2024 statistics update – 25th of June, 2024 apare prima dată în Filip Iulian Pacurar (Filipac).

The syntax is elegant, you write code fast and it just works, especially if it is paired with a great framework like Laravel.

But the last few weeks I have been busy in my free time building a scraper script for the CEAC (Consular Electronic Application Center), a scraper to extract diversity visa program data.

By the way – a couple of people have questioned if this is legal. Yes, it is. The Department of State has said this data is in the public domain and can be copied and distributed without their permission. Here is their copyright statement.

Anyway, in the DV2024 program there are approximately 41.000 cases to be checked in order to get updated information about the issuance state, and make statistics like this brilliant guy Xarthisius did here.

The problem is that Xarthisius publishes this data once a week and I wanted to be prepared to run in whenever I want, especially when the DV2025 program starts (the one where we won).

So I started building the scraper in Python, to be honest just because I found a related tool to check non-immigrant visa status, I took inspiration from that and continued with Python. now, I do not code Python regularly, but I do not find it hard, it is a fun language to build stuff with.

Here’s a summary of what the scraper has to do:

• Do the initial request to setup the session.
• Before each case check, fetch the captcha image and try to break it using various custom ML models. If all models return the same code, carry on, else refresh the captcha code (another request).
• A modal opens, parses HTML data from that modal, and puts it into nice structures in Python (number of persons, consulate, status, dates, etc).
• If there are multiple persons in the same case, we have to make another request for each person to get detailed status about that person.
• After all data is parsed, close the modal and carry on with another case number.

This process is more complicated than it seems, from time to time the firewall blocks you, so you have to rotate a VPN, and you have to do the process in multiple threads to get all the cases in ~1 hour.

After I perfected the scraper, and I was able to get around 10k cases in 10 minutes, I thought I could migrate this “little” scraper to PHP since I am more comfortable with it (no hard feelings, Python, I like you but I code faster in PHP…… at least before this little project).

The code and project in PHP are more elegant, I have types everywhere, and fetching a case looks like this:

The real problem in the PHP implementation started when I needed real-world scaling. PHP is not commonly used with multi-threads, you need a custom extension for that, it does not work ok, threads cannot communicate in a performant manner with the parent process, and you cannot share easily information between threads. As a result, even though I have a class to fetch CEAC cases in PHP, it takes so much more to fetch 41k cases. So I decided to put the PHP project on hold and keep using Python.

At the end of the day, even if I did hacky things in Python with Futures and shared data between threads and workers, I am able to fetch 1000 cases in 2 minutes, depending on how well CEAC responds.

There are things that I could still try when I feel like I need to continue, things like:

• Batching x amount of cases and checking them in a queue with Laravel Horizon.
• Keeping the current used VPN server in cache and syncing it that way across workers.
• Learn the async/threads extension better
• Use a Selenium backend with multiple open tabs.

But the moral of the story is… sometimes you have to code in another language because it is simply better for the thing you want to do. Even if I love PHP, I know Python, Rust, Go, Ruby, and many other programming languages. PHP is a decent language, but when you need concurrency and threads, Python might be better. There might be an even better language to code this scraper, but Python does the job and it is easy to maintain.

So don’t limit yourself in the tech industry, try to learn other new things and languages. It will only benefit you.

Articolul PHP vs Python – personal experience apare prima dată în Filip Iulian Pacurar (Filipac).

Of course, the website is stuck from the thousands of visits per second, but after a few minutes, I can check. I enter my confirmation number, name, and birth date, wait for the captcha image to load, and click submit. The first time it failed. No problem, I tried again. This time the page takes a few seconds to load after I click submit. After those seconds, I see this:

Overwhelmed with mixed emotions, I quickly ran to my wife Catalina who was outside, waiting for me to do some groceries. I had tears in my eyes and I yelled: “We were selected”. That was enough for her to know what I was talking about even if she did not know I was checking the results.

Joshua panicked when he also heard us and he thought we would leave tomorrow, haha, now knowing we will have a looooong period to wait for an interview.

I never thought this day would come so soon. The last updates I published on my blog about the DV program were those:

• DV2022
• DV2023

By the time I was also not selected for DV2024 I was so used to this that I did not even publish an update here.

But God the Lord almighty is so good that he answered our prayers so far.

The less good-looking part

Each year, the US government has 55.000 visas to issue on this program. Those 55k are assigned to multiple regions/continents: Europe, Africa, and so on. Europe gets around ~20.000 of visas. On each case number, there are an average of 2 persons, because if I won I take my wife and kids with me so I actually get 5 visas out of those 20 thousand with a single case.

The less good-looking part is that our case number is pretty high: 290xx. The last two numbers are taken out for privacy.

I have backtraced data from previous years for our embassy in Bucharest to see if in that year we would have won or not, every year since 2013.

Fiscal year / DV	Last case number that got visa issued	Pass or not	Extra details
DV2024	20258		The program is not done yet, it will end on September 30, 2024
DV2023	31642
DV2022	27256
DV2021	37694
DV2020	33483
DV2019	30241
DV2018	25772
DV2017	30618
DV2016	24293
DV2015	42816
DV2014	40131
DV2013	29426
	Average last case number: 31135 (32124 excluding DV2024 which is still running).

So out of the last 12 years, 11 excluding the running DV2024 program, 4 (or 3 excluding) we would have not won with our case number.

If we were to calculate our chances of getting the actual visa after an interview using the average last case numbers from above, our chances are:

• 93.42% chance when we include the DV2024 data.
• 90.55% chance with DV2024 data

Of course, this is not actually correct, it is not actually a chance, that we would get a visa after 90% would get it. So the actual chance this way is way lower.

Next, notice a pattern since 2013 of green and red: or 1 1 1…. 0 1 0 ….. 111 …… 010 …

Looking at this pattern (which of course is not confirmed and the next year could also be red, or the last red dot (DV2024) turns green until September 30, 2024) I can calculate chances based on the years (green or red).

• We have a 72.72% chance of getting a visa if we ignore DV2024 data (100*8 / 11)
• We have a 66.66% chance of getting a visa if we include DV2024 data (100*8 / 12)

If my pattern above confirms and I can assume the next number will be green (we would get a visa), our chances are 69.23% in our favor.

Adding a dose of optimism, our chances are 70% to get a visa in the DV2025 program.

Overthinking

My post is ridiculous by now. We got selected randomly and we had a 1% chance GLOBALLY to be selected for further processing. Now our odds got up from 1% to 70% of getting the visa, and I became worried. This must be a joke.

The God that helped us with the 1% miracle is the same One that can help us get the visa with 70% odds.

Human nature makes me worried, but instead, I should be grateful and full of hope.

The truth is, we made it so far and God will take care of us in the next year and He is the one actually getting us an interview, not the KCC . KCC just listens to what He will say.

Ending

We have a long year in front of us where our patience will be tested. If we get an interview, I estimate it will be around August or September of 2025, the last two months of the program.

There are a lot of unknowns, like how many cases were picked in DV2025, how will DV2024 end, how will the embassies perform for DV2025, and how many invalid cases are in front of us, all those things are not known.

We can only trust God further and wait for the interview by faith.

I will keep you updated over the year with how DV2024 progresses, how our odds change month-over-month and other related things.

Thank you for reading this, say a prayer for us, and see you on my next post.

Articolul Diversity visa 2025 – we won!!!! ✅ apare prima dată în Filip Iulian Pacurar (Filipac).