Photo by Kelly O’Connor of sittingstill.smugmug.com

Losing to the Chicago White Sox, owners of one of the worst offenses in baseball right now, just totally can’t make one frustrated, right? Right?!?

• After a run-filled five-game winning streak, it seems like the Red Sox forgot to bring their boomsticks with them to the Windy City. Stop making Hawk Harrelson happy, guys. (Red Sox bats stay dormant)

• He was much better than his previous pair of outings, but it’s a real shame the offense couldn’t back a well-pitched game by Felix Doubront. (Doubront takes a loss but continues progress)

• Our resident Pete-Rose-avatar enthusiast, Hunter Golden, wrote about Jacoby Ellsbury‘s missing power stroke. Here’s another take: why not try and re-create what made him good in 2011? (Red Sox Need To Uncover An Improved Jacoby Ellsbury)

• There is some good news on the home front, though – Andrew Bailey‘s returned, so we won’t have to rely on our 4th reliever, albeit a good pitcher, to close anymore. (With Bailey back, Red Sox’ bullpen solidifies)

• I feel your pain, Shane Victorino. Not literally, of course, but it really is frustrating to finally get all the way back, then hit another bump in the road. (Victorino ‘frustrated’ with hamstring tightness)

• Here’s a thought: why don’t we take Jose Iglesias‘ glove, and move it somewhere else? At the risk of sounding like a meme, that sounds like a great idea. (Iglesias will get work at second, third base)

• It won’t be a real break for the Red Sox if they still can’t hit come game time. Just lessens the difficulty, that’s all. (Chris Sale won’t start Wednesday against the Red Sox because of left shoulder tendinitis)

Is it still the Second Coming of the Pitcher?

There hasn’t been a no-hitter this year. There were two by this time last year.

— Evan Drellich (@EvanDrellich) May 22, 2013

So onto other important stuff like Jacoby Ellsbury’s complete power outage…

For starters, let’s just get this out of the way before I type anything else I’ll eventually regret. Ellsbury doesn’t have a ton of power – at least of the HR variety – and we need to stop pretending he does. He sat on an absolutely absurd 16.7 HR/FB% in 2011 that was nearly 8 percentage points above his career average. He’s never going to hit for that kind of power again unless he gets that darn lucky again – which is incredibly unlikely. So no more using that as his power baseline.

However even WITH Ellsbury’s 2011 season neatly placed on a shelf for solemn observance, we’re left with a mostly baffling power outage that seems to present us with more questions than answers. Heck, they might even be random guesses. Long story, short – Jacoby Ellsbury’s power has left this Earth and we haven’t the faintest clue of where it could be.

Could it be his shoulder?

It could be. We did witness what a stingy/not totally healed shoulder did to Adrian Gonzalez’s power here in Boston and continues to do in Los Angeles. Shoulders are tricky beasts in baseball and adverse effects from those kinds of injuries can linger anywhere from a few weeks to years. In some cases, they never go away.

Is that it over there? (CREDIT: FLICKR)

The counter point to that is Ellsbury’s contact % and heat maps aren’t all that different from what they’ve been throughout his career. While a shoulder injury is not out of the question, Ellsbury’s getting to balls at a higher percentage than he normally does, which would suggest that his bat speed is just fine. It just so happens that for whatever reason, he’s not hitting home runs and stretching hits into doubles.

Is impending free agency affecting him mentally?

I usually hate this argument, but there is something to be said for mental distractions because, well… let’s face it. There’s been an abundance of them in Boston over the last few years.

We saw what a mess Carl Crawford turned out to be here as well as how much off the field shenanigans (among other things) affected John Lackey’s ability to focus on pitching. We also just sat through the entire 2012 season which in and of itself was one, gigantic distraction in its own right. Even Shane Victorino – who many had written off after last season – struggled with the idea of being traded and being unsettled during his time with the Dodgers last year – only to seemingly find himself again once landing his deal in Boston. So as we can see – distractions can play a big role in player’s performance.

The problem with that is that there’s nothing in his numbers that suggests that Ellsbury is pressing at the plate or doing any of the things mentally affected players usually do. He’s making better contact, hitting roughly the same pct. of pitches thrown to him in the zone and is swinging only slightly more. He’s even chasing fewer pitches out of the zone and whiffing less.

While it’s not altogether impossible that the mental aspects of the game and his contract situation might be gnawing at his psyche, there’s nothing in his performance that would suggest a dramatic change in approach and/or skill that are symptomatic of players who are pressing at the plate.

Could it be a timing thing?

John Farrell seems to have alluded as much – and truth be told there might be something to that. While Ellsbury’s never torn the cover off of breaking balls, he’s at least been able to hit them at a passable rate. This season, that’s not the case.

While his wFB is still a healthy enough 3.2, he’s in the negative vs. Sliders (-2.3), Cutters (-3.4), Curveballs (-0.1) and changeups (-2.1). Could it be that he’s not picking up on breaking balls or having difficulty reading pitches? Could he be overthinking things? Could it be an inability to adjust his swing after he recognizes breaking balls because of shoulder weakness?

The truth is that you could guess ‘yes’ to all of those and you’d probably have sufficient evidence to at least make a semi-reasonable case. As to the root cause though, that’s a harder nut to crack. Pitcher’s haven’t changed up their approach and aren’t throwing certain pitches more or less than others when facing Ellsbury. Without the benefit of a larger sample, it’s going to be impossible to tell whether this is an emerging trend indicative of a decline in skill, or just an early-season anomaly.

Random guesses?

When dealing with small samples, there is always something out of whack, but every so often they reveal things worth thinking about. Things like:

• His huge Home/Road Splits - Ellsbury’s home and away splits are pretty striking. He’s hitting .206/.267/.309 at home this season, which is well off his career mark of .302/.354/.469. Again, small sample and all but that’s a pretty precipitous drop.
• Emerging platoon splits- Ellsbury is carrying a pretty meaty split this year. Against RHP, he’s got a .565 OPS. Vs. LHP, he’s hitting .683. Small sample? Maybe, but he carried roughly the same gap in splits last year, too. (.648 vs. LHP against .701 vs. RHP). Could we be dealing with an emerging platoon issue?
• His power comes as the year progresses, so why I are we so upset again? - Traditionally, Ellsbury hits for power as the season progresses. His career SLG in the first half of the season is .396. In the second half? .466. If that performance holds, we should expect good things heading forward.
• Maybe he’s just not that good? – Just something to chew on – Ellsbury, while not being terrible at the plate – is hardly an offensive force once you take his 2011 season out of the equation. With 2011 junked, Ellsbury is a career .279/.323/.377 hitter and has averaged only 1.98 bWAR over his seven seasons in the Majors (2011 included). Maybe the real Ellsbury is just a below average player regressing and whose value is being propped up by his very good defense in Center Field. I’m not entirely sold on this – but again – it’s a possibility.

So here we are – after all that – with nothing but questions. My conclusion would be to wait this out. At some point, you’d think things would have to get better. While the results haven’t been there, there’s nothing (yet) that suggests that this is anything more than an anomaly. His plate approach is the same, pitchers haven’t made any dramatic adjustments and there’s nothing about his health history that’s translated into performance indicators. While it’s not exactly the news we might want to hear, perhaps just waiting this out is what the doctor ordered. Sure, that should probably be done with Ellsbury further down in the lineup, but dropping him from the lineup at this point would be jumping the gun.

No one in their right mind decides that 40 games into a season is the right time for job performance reviews. No one would judge the offseason, a time when multi-year deals are handed out and trades of prospects are made, in 40 days.

Right?

Right…

Oh, then there is Nick Cafardo.

Thumbs up

1. Indians— A terrific all-around job by Chris Antonetti, who not only identified the right manager — Terry Francona — but brought in free agents Mark Reynolds, Jason Giambi, Michael Bourn, Nick Swisher, and Rich Hill, and traded for Yan Gomes and Mike Aviles. Didn’t hit on Brett Myers. Result: around the top of the AL Central.

We knew the Indians had done a good job before the season, and how hard is it to recognize that Francona is a good manager?

2. Yankees — Nobody got more bang for his buck than Brian Cashman. He brought in Lyle Overbay to replace the injuredMark Teixeira, signed Kevin Youkilis to a one-year, $12 million deal, traded for Vernon Wells, using $7 million of the insurance money the team received when Teixeira got hurt at the World Baseball Classic, and signed Travis Hafner to a one-year, $5 million deal. Result: first place in the AL East.

MVP! MVP! MV… I just can’t…
Pic credit LoftonBaseball via flickr

Will they not die?

Fourth best because of Justin Upton? B.J. Upton has been terrible, there is no solution at third, and this team is in first place because of a long term approach that included a play off appearance LAST YEAR! Their offseason is not why they are in first. (Not that Justin Upton isn’t helping, but that is more about Arizona stupidity than Atlanta genius…unless you credit Frank Wren’s jedi mind tricks that kept Arizona from demanding good players, like Andrelton Simmons, in return.

5. Royals — Dayton Moore decided to pick this season to go for it. He brought inJames [sic] Shields to stabilize his staff, adding a bona fide No. 1 starter even if it meant dealing prospect Wil Myers to the Rays. He revamped the rest of the pitching staff with Jeremy Guthrie, Ervin Santana, and Wade Davis. Result: in contention in the AL Central.

Does Nick still not have an editor?

BTWs – Wil Myers hasn’t played in the majors, therefore the jury is still very much out on this deal. Plus – any chance the Rays would be better off, still, with Myers being a reasonable replacement for the already benched Francouer?

6. Diamondbacks — Amazing how things work out. The D-Backs felt they needed to get rid of Justin Upton in the name of team chemistry and they seem better off for it, while the Braves have benefited from his production. Kevin Towers also added Brandon McCarthy to the rotation and acquired Heath Bell for the bullpen. Bell has now become the closer in place of J.J. Putz, who went on the DL. Result: in contention in the NL West.

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!! This is the grittiest analysis I have ever seen.

7. Rangers — Jon Daniels took some heat for a quiet offseason, but perhaps it was addition by subtraction by eliminatingJosh [sic] Hamilton and bringing in Lance Berkman to be the DH. Daniels also added A.J. Pierzynski, who has been an effective player for Texas both offensively and defensively. Result: first place in the AL West.

So, we are now labeling Hamilton a cancer? An ‘addition by subtraction’ type? Remember how lovable he was last year? Amazing how a slump can alter the narrative. Perhaps the lessons here are (1) an offseason changes little compared to an executed philosophy and (2) do not overpay for players in their thirties in the post-steroid/greenies/PED era.

8. Pirates — Off to a good start, the Pirates did addition by subtraction on Hanrahan and gave Jason Grilli the closer job, who in tandem with Mark Melancon (acquired in the Hanrahan deal with Boston) has been pretty solid late in
games. Catcher Russell Martin has also been a solid pickup. Result: in contention in the NL Central.

Signing a decent catcher and swapping relievers is a good offseason that makes a team in contention? I’m calling BS.

9. Nationals — Leadoff hitter Denard Span got off to a slow start, as did Dan Haren. Rafael Soriano has been pretty solid in the closer’s role, converting 12 of 13 save chances. Result: in contention in the NL East.

Two of the three offseason moves have started slow, and it is rated as a good offseason? NO! They had a good team that needed cosmetic upgrades. This contention in the NL East has precious little to do with the offseason, if anything, the case is made by Nick that the Nats are good in spite of the offseason. And also Natitude.

Thumbs down

1. Blue Jays — This hasn’t worked out, but not many among us thought it would be like this. Jose Reyes was having a nice year before he got hurt, but the rest of the acquisitions have underperformed — from Emilio Bonifacio to pitchers R.A. Dickey (though better lately), Mark Buehrle (better lately), and Josh Johnson (on the DL). Result: last place in the AL East.

It took 40 days for the unanimous winners of the offseason to be declared the losers of the offseason instead.

40 days.

Just don’t pretend that I didn’t warn you…

2. Angels — Hamilton says he has an equilibrium problem, and we believe him. He’s too good a player for the poor start he’s had. The Angels have also gotten nothing from starter Joe Blanton (0-7, 6.46 ERA) or reliever Sean Burnett. RelieverRyan [sic] Madson is still on the mend from Tommy John surgery. Jason Vargas, acquired in a deal with Seattle, hasn’t given them the stability they hope they’d get in the rotation. Result: fourth place in the AL West.

We? We believe him? Who is we? And wasn’t Hamilton just called an addition by subtraction? If so, can he be addition by addition on another team?

And, seriously, did anyone think Blanton and Vargas we solutions?

Finally – Cafardo does not mention how they paid MVP candidate Vernon Wells to leave [I will now go hang myself.]

3. Dodgers — The Dodgers’ problem has been mostly injuries. Big offseason acquisition Zack Greinke is now back after breaking his left collarbone. Brandon League signed a three-year, $22 million deal and has an ERA over 5.00. Result: last place in the NL West.

Really, injuries? If it is just injuries, how can it be considered a poor offseason? HOW?

Also – the poor play could have to do with – counting on Luis Cruz, Juan Uribe, Brandon League, Skip Schumaker, and A.J. Ellis? That did not seem like good roster construction from the start…which would be a better argument for a poor offseason than injuries, right?

4. Mariners — Deals with Washington for Michael Morse and the Angels for Kendrys Morales didn’t work out early, though both have begun to hit. Joe Saunders has a 5.51 ERA and Aaron Harang, acquired from the Dodgers, has an ERA over 7.00. Result: well back of Rangers in the AL West.

This is a bit of a funny one: the Mariners are actually in third place after finishing last last year. They were also only one game under .500 before a recent 4 game losing streak.

5. White Sox — Their big offseason acquisition, infielder Jeff Keppinger, has hit a disappointing .183. Result: last place in the AL Central.

Do nothing in the offseason, expect nothing from your offseason. Funny, innit, that Keppinger has been a huge story for having not taken a walk all season (which he just rectified), and Cafardo only mentions……..batting average.

Not sure we accomplished anything here, other than our weekly time of joining together and shaking our collective head at Nick Cafardo’s lack of basic rhetorical skills.

Have a good week.

Question: Out of the five starters in the current rotation (as of 5/20), which one has the lowest strikeout rate (K/9)?

HONOR CODE: No search engines or keyword searches, and this time no Fangraphs/BReference/etc. The choices are extremely limited, guys.

Previous Question Answer: With a low 1.94 xFIP, Andrew Miller has that stat covered, despite his seemingly bipolar pitching tendencies…

Walter got it correct! Check out the trivia leaderboard here, or the past winners here.

Now, a word from our sponsor:

Filmed throughout the 2011 season, KNUCKLEBALL follows 37 year-old all-star R.A. Dickey of the New York Mets and 18-year veteran Tim Wakefield, formerly the oldest player in the major leagues and an icon of the Boston Red Sox. The film details their personal and professional struggles and triumphs while exploring the bond between them and the few living retired knuckleballers, including Charlie Hough, Wilbur Wood, Jim Bouton, Tom Candiotti and Hall of Famer Phil Niekro. KNUCKLEBALL is the story of these extraordinary men, and the sacrifices they have made to a pitch that would come to define their careers and reputations. You can see the DVD here.

Paul Konerko (photo: Samara Pearlstein)

Having swept the Twins, the Boston Red Sox (27-17, second place, 0.5 games behind in the AL East) go to the South Side to take on the Chicago White Sox (19-23, tied for fourth place, 6 games behind in the AL Central) for a three-game series. The Red Sox are 6-4 in their last 10 games but have won their last five games in a row, while the White Sox are 5-5 in their last 10 games and have lost two games.

STARTING PITCHERS: Dylan Axelrod, Jose Quintana and Chris Sale

Dylan Axelrod (against Jon Lester in the opener) is just an average pitcher. While his pitching line in 2013 of 4.27 ERA/4.63 FIP/4.99 xFIP is an improvement over his 2012 line of 5.47 ERA/5.04 FIP/4.72 xFIP, it isn’t much of one. Axelrod’s improvement might be due to a lower BABIP (.275 in 2013, 3.04 in 2012), a lower walk rate (2.53 per nine in 2013, 3.71 in 2012) and an improved home run-to-fly ball ratio (9.1% in 2013, 13.1% in 2012), but his improvements are counteracted by a dramatically decreased strike out ratio (5.05 per nine in 2013, 7.06 in 2012).

Jose Quintana (versus Felix Doubront) is an interesting young pitcher whose peripherals show growth. In his rookie year last year Quintana put up a pitching line of 3.76 ERA/4.23 FIP/4.33 xFIP, and his stats (5.35 K/9, 2.77 BB/9, .299 BABIP, 10.5% HR/FB, 1.35 WHIP) while not stellar in any one area, were solid for a rookie. So far in 2013, Quintana’s pitching line is 3.97 ERA/3.89 FIP/4.11 xFIP (not much of a change) but his peripheral stats have improved (6.75 K/9, 2.58 BB/9, .275 BABIP, 9.6% HR/FB, 1.24 WHIP)> Keep it up, Jose!

Chris Sale (facing Clay Buchholz in the finale) is also improving, and that should scare the American League. In his breakout year last season, Sale put up a line of 3.05 ERA/3.27 FIP/3.24 xFIP, and in 2013 he’s just getting better (2.53 ERA/3.19 FIP/3.29 xFIP). The only thing to watch out for is his low BABIP of .235, but as his batting average against is a stellar .192, it’s not too much of a concern, as aces often have low BABIPs.

EXPECTED LINEUP

1. Alejandro De Aza, CF
2. Alexei Ramirez, SS
3. Alex Rios, RF
4. Adam Dunn, DH
5. Paul Konerko, 1B
6. Conor Gillaspie, 3B
7. Dayan Viciedo, LF
8. Jeff Keppinger, 2B
9. Tyler Flowers, C

WHO’S HOT/WHO’S NOT

In the last two weeks, the hot hitters for the White Sox were Alex Rios (.396/.429/.717, .481 wOBA, 204 wRC+), Hector Gimenez (.400/.400/.700, .472 wOBA. 197 wRC+), Dayan Viciedo (.375/.476/.594, .450 wOBA, 183 wRC+) and Adam Dunn (.231/.318/.590, .384 wOBA, 138 wRC+, 4 homers), while the cold hitters were Tyler Flowers (.222/.317/.250, .256 wOBA, 51 wRC+), DeWayne Wise (.200/.259/.240, .229 wOBA, 33 wRC+), Paul Konerko (.195/.250/.195, .208 wOBA, 19 wRC+), Jeff Keppinger (.200/.234/.222, .207 wOBA, 18 wRC+), Tyler Greene (.200/.200/.250, .196 wOBA, 10 wRC+) and Casper Wells (.182/.182/.273, .195 wOBA, 10 wRC+).

In the bullpen, Jesse Crain (0.00 ERA/1.45 FIP/2.36 xFIP, .167 BABIP), Matt Thornton (0.00 ERA/2.48 FIP/2.88 xFIP, .333 BABIP) and closer Addison Reed (1.80 ERA/1.03 FIP/2.76 xFIP, .286 BABIP) pitched well in the last two weeks, but Matt Lindstrom (5.79 ERA/3.46 FIP/4.69 xFIP, .400 BABIP) and Nate Jones (5.87 ERA/2.90 FIP/3.84 xFIP, .261 BABIP) did not have a good fortnight.

AND NOW FOR A MUSICAL INTERLUDE

INJURIES

2B Gordon Beckham (fracture in left hand, placed on the 15-day DL on April 12, retroactive to April 10), LHP John Danks (recovery from August 2012 left shoulder surgery, placed on the 15-day DL on March 26, retroactive to March 22), RHP Gavin Floyd (UCL, torn flexor muscle in right elbow, placed on the 15-day DL on April 28, transferred to the 60-day DL on May 7), SS Angel Sanchez (lower back strain, placed on the 15-day DL on April 14) and LHP Leyson Septimo (left shoulder strain, placed on the 15-day DL on March 26, retroactive to March 22)

AND WHAT ABOUT THE RED SOX?

Over the last two weeks, Dustin Pedroia (.453/.517/.660, .505 wOBA, 219 wRC+, 1.2 WAR in 2 weeks, coolness!), Jarrod Saltalamacchia (.355/.429/.581, .434 wOBA, 171 wRC+), Stephen Drew (.333/.422/.590, .428 wOBA, 167 wRC+) and Daniel Nava (.333/.410/.500, .383 wOBA, 137 wRC+) hit very well for the Red Sox, while Jonny Gomes (.138/.250/.276, .238 wOBA, 39 wRC+), Jacoby Ellsbury (.157/.259/.216, .225 wOBA, 30 wRC+), Pedro Ciriaco (.071/.188/.286, .216 wOBA, 24 wRC+), Ryan Lavarnway (.143/.125/.143, .111 wOBA, -47 wRC+) and Mike Carp (.000/.091/.000, .063 wOBA, -80 wRC+ – yikes!) were ice cold.

In the bullpen, Koji Uehara (0.00 ERA/0.03 FIP/1.11 xFIP, .500 BABIP) and Alex Wilson (0.00 ERA/2.63 FIP/4.07 xFIP, .167 BABIP) earned the Blutarsky ERA Award, while Craig Breslow (1.35 ERA/3.03 FIP/4.11 xFIP, .227 BABIP) also pitched well over the last two weeks. Clayton Mortensen (2.70 ERA/7.08 FIP/6.86 xFIP, .183 BABIP, 2.70 K/9, 8.10 BB/9) was extremely lucky to have a low ERA. Jose De La Torre (9.00 ERA/2.53 FIP/3.97 xFIP, .400 BABIP) was unlucky in his two appearances but he will be sent down today to make room for Andrew Bailey.

SUMMARY

The White Sox aren’t playing well enough to keep contact with the leaders in the AL Central, but one hot streak could change that.

That fact is useful for two reasons: one, because it illustrates how long its been since the Red Sox have picked this highly, and two, because Nixon is a good example of what a successful selection can do to a franchise. Was he a superstar? Perhaps not. But when a player puts up more than 20 fWAR over an eight-year period, that player is an example of solid drafting and development.

I do not know what the state of the Red Sox farm system was in 1993, and several players selected after Nixon went on to have better careers. Billy Wagner, Derrek Lee, Chris Carpenter, Torii Hunter and Jason Varitek were all taken later in the first, and
Scott Rolen was selected in the second, to name some of the more prominent stars.

But what I can tell you is that if Nixon was viewed as the best player available at the time the Red Sox selected him, he was the best choice. And that’s a strategy the Sox should follow for this upcoming draft as well.

Deven Marrero was somewhat of a surprise pick by the Sox in 2012. Photo by Kelly O’Connor, sittingstill.net.

Those who are even mildly invested in the draft will know that Mark Appel and Jonathan Gray are far and away the best prospects in the 2013 crop. They are potential rotation anchors, and they will most likely be off the board within the first two picks. Should one of the Astros or Cubs buck conventional wisdom and take someone else with one of the first two selections, there’s really no chance the two pitchers make it past Colorado at three.

We can assume that Kris Bryant, arguably the best and most MLB ready bat in the draft, will have heard his name called before pick No. 7 too.

Other than that, there’s not much we know about this draft. Players in the mix for the three-through-10 spots include college arms like Sean Manaea, Braden Shipley and Ryne Stanek, prep bats like Austin Meadows and Clint Frazier, college hitters like Colin Moran and Austin Wilson (unlikely) and really just two prep arms in Kohl Stewart and Trey Ball (who some see as an outfielder).

With the Red Sox close to seeing their next nucleus of strong young players reach the major leagues, it’s tempting to suggest they should take a college bat or arm. Having another Top 100-type prospect reach the majors around the same time as Xander
Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley, Allen Webster, Anthony Ranaudo and Matt Barnes is enticing, and in many ways it makes sense. If the Sox believe that Moran is really a future No. 5 hitter or that Manaea or Stanek are really No. 2/3 starter types, than their selections are warranted.

But despite the new draft rules that provide somewhat of an incentive for teams to cut deals with lesser players early, the Red Sox should be targeting the player who they believe has the best mix of upside and probability who’s left on the board. If that happens to be Moran, who is a third baseman and could contribute to the dreaded/largely mythical “logjam” at that position for the Red Sox, so be it. If that player is Stewart, who’s likely four years away from the majors but has real TOR potential, that’s who they should go with.

I can’t remember exactly where I saw it – I think it may have been in a BP chat or a Minor League Ball forum – but while talking about the draft, a commenter said, “no team in the history of baseball has ever suffered from having too many talented players.”

It’s sort of a self-evident statement at first glance, but when you think about many of the suggestions some make when it comes to draft time, it’s a sentiment that needs to be repeated. You take the best talent because the best talent wins, or can be traded for
other elite talent. The MLB draft is different from its NBA and NFL counterparts: you cannot draft for immediate need. And given the bust rate of even the most highly regarded prospects, you can’t draft for projected need, either.

I’ve written about this before, so I’ll spare you the long-winded reasoning here, but you don’t have to look very far into the past in Boston’s own system to understand that this is the case. Future No. 3 starter Michael Bowden, shutdown closer Craig Hansen, right field star Ryan Kalish and cleanup hitter Andy Marte are just a few recent examples that come to mind.

Boston went college-heavy in the draft a year ago, taking collegiate players with the first three and four out of their first five selections. It was a draft largely light on upside and high on probability.

Whether that’s just how the board fell or whether it’s indicative of how Ben Cherington plans to conduct his drafts is something we’ll likely have a better idea of within the next three weeks.

Photo by Kelly O’Connor of sittingstill.smugmug.com

Not even a shower & the shampoo promoter himself could stop the sweep from happening this weekend. The road warriors roll into Chicago next.

• Here’s the story of the Red Sox and the Rain Delay: There was once a game where the Sox played well. Then a storm happened. Then the Red Sox still played well. Fin. (Sox weather rain delay, sweep Twins)

• In the first part of that story, this John Lackey guy threw six innings of one-hit ball. My clock was stuck on AWESOME O’CLOCK for quite a while. (John Lackey scripts feel-good comeback)

• 2013 will mark the 11th consecutive season that David Ortiz has been on the Red Sox. And the 11th consecutive season the Minnesota Twins have missed him. (Ortiz reminds the Twins what they’ve been missing)

• Sure, Shane Victorino‘s bat may not be fantastic. But his glove & arm in the outfield are what set him apart from the rest of the OF corps. (Victorino stands alone among Red Sox outfielders)

• Today, we’ll be reading In-Game Strategy by John Farrell. It even includes a foreword on the Art of Not Being Bobby Valentine! (Anatomy Of The Red Sox Batting Order)

• At long last, the bullpen battalion is finally getting some reinforcements. Andrew Bailey‘s just about ready to come back. (Bailey [biceps] set to rejoin Red Sox)

• …yeah, I’m still hilariously confused by what you did there, Felix Doubront. I guess “terribly funny” would be the correct phrase. (The Worst of the Best: The Week’s Wildest Pitches)

WHERE’S THE VIDEO, SHANE, DON’T HOLD OUT ON US NOW

I would love to see @davidortiz do a tarp slide! Who’s with me????? @jacobyellsbury will record it

— Shane Victorino (@ShaneVictorino) May 19, 2013

That’s another way of saying the Pawtucket Red Sox right-hander is the last of a dying breed, namely pitchers who rely on a knuckleball as their primary pitch. In fact, Toronto’s R. A. Dickey is the only active Major League pitcher who still features a knuckleball.

Ironically, if Wright is able to master command of this unconventional pitch, it may be his ticket to the Boston Red Sox who obtained him last July from Cleveland in a trade for Lars Anderson.

“Actually, I started throwing it when I was seven or eight years old,” Wright said before his Monday start at McCoy Stadium against Indianapolis. “My old pitching coach, Frank Pastore (who pitched for the Reds), threw one back to me during a lesson and I got intrigued with the pitch.” said Wright. “I really didn’t have a swing-and-miss pitch. One day (in2010), I was messing around with it on the bullpen mound when I was with Akron and we were in New Hampshire. Greg Hibbert, our pitching coach, saw me doing it and he brought it to the Indians attention about maybe using it as an out pitch. They told me to throw it as an out pitch and that’s how I started throwing it in games.”

“I had a good rest of the year,” Wright continued. “The next year, they brought in (John) Candiotti (who had a 16-year career primarily as a knuckleballer). He was the one who recommended I throw it as a full-time pitch.”

Wright will carry a 2-1 record and a 3.16 ERA into his start against Indianapolis. But he’s already had a taste of pitching in the Major Leagues because he pitched for Boston on April 23 against Oakland. Despite the fact he allowed five runs in 3 2/3 innings, Wright was anything but discouraged about his performance.

“I realized it will play up,” he said. “My stuff can play at that level because I’ve shown I can get outs with it. But I’ve also shown that if I don’t make a good pitch it will get hit. It definitely was a good learning curve. I got a little taste of it and I know it will play. It’s just like here. You make a bad pitch and they’re going to hit it. You make a good pitch and they still might hit it, but maybe not as hard. Up there, they’re disciplined enough to stay within their approach. That’s the difference. They make you throw it for strikes.”

Not surprisingly, Wright benefitted from conversations with Tim Wakefield who retired after the 2011 season ranked second for most strikeouts (2,046) ever by a Boston pitcher.

“I talked with him right before I was traded,” Wright said. “Then, I worked with him in spring training. He understands the knuckleball and he understands pitching. That’s what makes him more beneficial to me because he was successful throwing a knuckleball but he understands what it takes to be a pitcher. With that and with him knowing the knuckleball, he’s not trying to make me become him. He’s helping me become the best knuckleball pitcher I can be. But he’s not trying to make me replicate him. That’s what’s helped me out a lot.”

PawSox pitching coach Rich Sauveur has few complaints about the movement of Wright’s knuckleball. But the sooner he can improve command of that pitch, the better his chances will be of getting another shot with Boston.

“He’s got a very good knuckleball with a lot of movement,” Sauveur said. “Last year, he had better command of it. This year, it’s had a ton of movement but the command hasn’t been there. You’re always looking for a dancing knuckleball. It’s been tough to catch this year so we know the movement’s there. But he needs to command better and that’s what we’re working on now.”

The Red Sox already have shown they have confidence in Wright because earlier this year they placed him on their 40-man roster.

“That was a no-brainer,” Sauveur said. “If they put him on the 40-man, that means they saw something. Just because he’s had a few hiccups here doesn’t mean he can’t pitch in the big leagues. I believe in him. He’s got a very good knuckleball. It’s just a matter of commanding it better.”

Yet, instead, it seems as if a road trip was just what the BoSox needed. They quickly took 2 of 3 in Tampa Bay; the third in absolutely thrilling fashion against everyone’s favorite archer, Fernando Rodney. They flew north and battled back to force extra innings tonight and took the first game of a three game set with the pesky Minnesota Twins.

Dustin Pedroia (Kelly O’Conner — www.sittingstill.net)

Aside from beating up on Tampa Bay’s bullpen after an ailing David Price left the game with a strained triceps, the Sox have clawed and scratched their way back into the win column. And, honestly, it has been refreshing to see.

On Thursday night the Sox unselfishly and patiently drew 4 walks off Rodney which eventually led to Middlebrooks bases clearing double. Tonight the Sox again played unselfish baseball. This time it was Middlebrooks who did his job by laying down an absolutely perfect bunt to advance Pedroia and Ciriaco into scoring position. After Stephen Drew was intentionally walked, Jonny Gomes lifted a fly ball into left center allowing Pedroia to tag and score the go ahead and game winning run.

Why is this so significant? It proves that the Red Sox know how to win and they are willing to do whatever it takes to do so. I’m not so sure Kevin Youkilis (as much as we all love him) lays down a bunt in Middlebrooks’s situation. I’m not so sure Carl Crawford gets a pitch he can handle and gives himself up on a sacrifice fly as Gomes did.

Maybe I’m grasping for straws here, but this team, you guys. Koji Uehara’s emphatic celebrations after a clean inning, Pedroia’s profane laced rants at himself during the middle of an inning after a poor AB, Ellsbury begging his manager not to be benched against a LHP, Napoli and his disregard for buttons on a uniform, Daniel freaking Nava, Victorino literally running through walls. I can go on and on.

At the end of the work day when 7:10 rolls around I get excited. And to think, at the beginning of this year absolutely none of us knew what to expect. Well, I think we finally know. Playoffs or not this team is going to be fun to watch for the next 120 games. Let’s be thankful for that.

3 Up

Dustin Pedroia

After reflecting on some of my previous articles I was stunned to find that Pedey had not made it on either list this season. I guess that is good since he has quietly just been doing his job. However, tonight the Sox second baseman made some noise with his glove reminding everyone why he is so valuable. The first batter of the game smoked a rocket line drive up the middle. It was a sure hit until Pedroia, out of nowhere, dove to his right, stabbed it on the first hop and fired to get Dozier at first. It was a gold glove play. 

Oh, and by the way Pedroia is hitting .335 with a .423 OBP. The power will come.

Will Middlebrooks

A night after hitting his 7th homer, Middlebrooks delivered the biggest hit of his Red Sox career. With two outs and the bases loaded against Fernando Rodney, Middlebrooks laced a curveball for, an eventual game winning, bases clearing double. It was the first time the Sox had come from behind while trailing after the 8th inning. Not only did it win the series for the Red Sox over the Rays, but it was a much needed swing of momentum going into Minnesota.

David Ortiz

Ok, Shank is ridiculous and we all despise him. Enough about that.

Since May 11 and the six games since then, Ortiz has 7 hits, 6 RBI, and a HR. I think it is safe to say he is out of his slump. He also has 23 RBI in the 23 games he has played this season so there’s that.

3 Down

Jacoby Ellsbury

Ells is buried in one of the worst slumps of his career and has seen his average plummet from .290 to .247 in the last 12 games. He is hitting just .188 in the month of May with only 2 steals in that span. It is not a coincidence that the Sox slide was in the same time frame as Ellsbury’s slump. The Sox need him to break out of this funk as soon as possible.

Fantasy baseball alert! Buy Low now!

Joel Hanrahan

Tommy John surgery. Out for the season. Probably will never see him again in a Red Sox uniform as he is a free agent after this season. Curse of Jon Papelbon?

Ryan Dempster

After being Mr. Consistent this year, Dempster was rocked on Sunday in Toronto for 6 runs on 7 hits — 3 of which were home runs through 5 innings. It is probably nothing to worry about. I’m sure the Sox would be thrilled if Dempster kept his ERA at its current 3.75 mark. If so, it would be a successful sign for everyone involved.

Joe Mauer (photo: Samara Pearlstein)

Having won two of three against the Rays, the Boston Red Sox (24-17, 2nd place, 1 game behind in the AL East) visit the Twin Cities for a three-game series against the Minnesota Twins (18-19, 4th place, 3 games back in the AL Central). The Red Sox are 4-6 in their last 10 games and won their last two games, while the Twins are 5-5 in their last 10 games and lost their last two in a row.

STARTING PITCHERS: Vance Worley, Scott Diamond and Pedro Hernandez

Vance Worley (versus Clay Buchholz), the nominal ace of the Twins staff, better start pitching like one. His 2013 pitching line is an ugly 7.15 ERA/4.79 FIP/4.53 xFIP but his BABIP is a tremendously unlucky .405 (.377 batting average against). He’s not walking many (2.31 per nine innings pitched) but not striking out many (4.85 per nine). Worley has also surrendered 6 homers in 39 innings pitched (12.8% per fly ball). These aren’t pretty numbers but if his BABIP normalizes he cam come back to somewhere near the average pitcher. He’s not the Messiah.

Scott Diamond (against Ryan Dempster) is what Vance Worley might be with a normal BABIP. Diamond also doesn’t strike out many batters (3.82 per nine) or walk many (1.53 per nine), and his homer per fly ball rate (12.2%) is comparable to Worley’s rate. However, Diamond’s BABIP is a pretty average .304 (.296 batting average against). Thus, Diamond’s pitching line is 4.08 ERA/4.61 FIP/4.44 xFIP. I think Diamond may have paid the blackmail.

Pedro Hernandez (versus John Lackey in the finale) is developing into a pitcher who will frustrate sabermetric types. His 2013 pitching line is an ugly 5.79 ERA/5.24 FIP/4.87 xFIP. His strike out to walk rate of 1.61 is not very good. As his BABIP is a somewhat normal .310, his numbers can’t be attributed to luck. His homer-to-fly ball ratio of 13.2% is higher than the 10.5% normal. Yet Hernandez has a record of 2-0. That record is as empty as a cheese shop.

EXPECTED LINEUP

1. Brian Dozier, 2B
2. Joe Mauer, C
3. Josh Willingham, LF
4. Justin Morneau, DH
5. Chris Parmelee, 1B
6. Trevor Plouffe, 3B
7. Oswaldo Arcia, RF
8. Aaron Hicks, CF
9. Pedro Florimon, SS

WHO’S HOT/WHO’S NOT

Amongst the Twins weaponry in the last two weeks were such diverse elements as Joe Mauer (.462/.556/.673, .517 wOBA, 234 wRC+, 1.3 WAR in two weeks, VERY nice), Oswaldo Arcia (.349/.364/.558, .394 wOBA, 150 wRC+) and Justin Morneau (.385/.400/.481, .372 wOBA, 136 wRC+). However, Josh Willingham (.146/.340/.220, .271 wOBA, 67 wRC+), Chris Parmelee (.129/.250/.258, .238 wOBA, 45 wRC+) and Brian Dozier (.200/.220/.300, .227 wOBA, 37 wRC+) did not expect the Spanish Inquisition.

In the Twins bullpen, Ryan Pressly (1.29 ERA/2.74 FIP/4.39 xFIP, .273 BABIP), closer Glen Perkins (2.25 ERA/3.52 FIP/2.08 xFIP, .286 BABIP) and Jared Burton (2.70 ERA/2.72 FIP/4.89 xFIP, .364 BABIP) implemented the two three main weapons of fear, surprise and ruthless efficiency. But Casey Fien (5.14 ERA/5.88 FIP/3.40 xFIP, .286 BABIP) and Josh Roenicke (7.04 ERA/5.89 FIP/4.76 xFIP, .300 BABIP) probably should come in again.

AND NOW FOR A MUSICAL INTERLUDE

INJURIES

RHP Cole DeVries (strained right forearm, placed on the 15-day DL on April 7, retroactive to March 30), RF Darin Mastroianni (stress reaction in left ankle, placed on the 15-day DL on April 17, retroactive to April 16) and RHP Tim Wood (right rotator cuff strain, placed on the 15-day disabled list on March 29, retroactive to March 24) have nothing but flesh wounds.

AND WHAT ABOUT THE RED SOX?

In the last two weeks, Dustin Pedroia (.392/.456/.529, .430 wOBA, 169 wRC+), Stephen Drew (.302/.375/.512, .384 wOBA, 138 wRC+) and Jarrod Saltalamacchia (.281/.343/.531, .374 wOBA, 131 wRC+) hit as if they were playing soccer against a bunch of Long John Silver impersonators, while Mike Napoli (.191/.269/.319, .256 wOBA, 51 wRC+), David Ortiz (.191/.240/.362, .254 wOBA, 50 wRC+) and Jacoby Ellsbury (.182/.274/.236, .239 wOBA, 39 wRC+) were slapped in the face with fish.

In the Red Sox bullpen, nobody earned the Blutarsky ERA Award, but Craig Breslow (1.80 ERA/2.42 FIP/3.29 xFIP, .316 BABIP) pitched very well indeed. Alex Wilson (1.69 ERA/3.59 FIP/5.21 xFIP, .235 BABIP) and Clayton Mortensen (3.24 ERA/5.90 FIP/5.73 xFIP, .200 BABIP) continued to defy their peripherals, while Andrew Miller (5.40 ERA/2.62 FIP/0.60 xFIP, .500 BABIP) and Jose De La Torre (9.00 ERA/2.52 FIP/3.97 xFIP, .400 BABIP) were as lucky as a milkman,

SUMMARY

The Twins should always look on the bright side of life.