FlightBlogger - Aviation News, Commentary and Analysis

A picture is worth a thousand questions

2009-11-06T21:58:13Z

For those of you who have paid a visit to the Future of Flight museum at Paine Field in Everett, Washington, this large monolithic composite barrel will be quite familiar to you. A few weeks ago, Boeing removed three barrel - a demonstrator of 787 section 47 - from its exhibit in at the museum and relocated back to the factory grounds. It's been rigged up near the 40-41 building and appears to have a vertical stabilizer leading edge now attached to the top of it. I confess to having absolutely no earthly clue as to the purpose of this barrel's reclamation, but it does inspire many many questions? Can anyone shed some light?

Photo Credit Mark Palmer

Boeing completes 747-8F factory gauntlet

2009-11-06T16:54:10Z

Boeing has completed the first of three rounds of gauntlet testing on the 747-8F, marking a significant step towards the aircraft's first flight, the company confirms.

RC501's two-day factory gauntlet took place over Wednesday and Thursday and consisted of ground control and autopilot checks, as well as testing of the flight deck and power systems.

Gauntlet testing places the aircraft in a closed loop simulation that 'fools' the aircraft systems into thinking they are flying. The factory gauntlet also represents the first major test of all of the aircraft systems as they operate in unison.

The first 747-8F also flew a simulated reduced B1 first flight profile with dynamics, flight controls and autoflight checks.

The nine-hour "first flight" was flown by Mark Feuerstein, chief project pilot for the 747-8F program and was joined on the flight deck by Captain Sheila Beahm, says Boeing.

RC501 will continue functional testing before rolling out of the factory then heading to the paint shop and fuel dock for first APU start, followed by a move to the flight line for the intermediate gauntlet. The second phase of gauntlet testing will see the first start of the four General Electric GEnx-2B engines under the wings of the new freighter.

After the intermediate gauntlet is complete, the aircraft will move into the final gauntlet systems testing, followed by low and high-speed taxi testing before first flight.

RC501 is expected to take its maiden flight early next year, with first delivery to Cargolux in the fourth quarter of 2010.

Photo Credit Boeing

Report: 787 first flight 'remains at least a month away'

2009-11-05T23:35:20Z

Late last night, Aviation Week's Guy Norris published a blog post discussing progress on the upcoming A330-200F first flight and the potential for 787 first flight by year's end:

Meanwhile up in Seattle, first flight of the 'other' new twin, the Boeing 787, still remains at least a month away with ZA001 and the other test aircraft in various states of storage and modification, and a re-activation pending structural test results from the side-of-body rework on static airframe ZY997.

Boeing says the installation of the wingfix on ZA001 is not yet complete, and sources say completion on ZA002 is now slightly ahead. There's conflicting information on the next point, which suggests some early steps are being taken to prepare ZA002 for flight ahead of ZA001 if it is ready first, but others indicate that ZA001 is still the prime candidate for 787 first flight.

Boeing continues to reaffirm that the 787 will fly before the end of 2009.

Additional program sources indicate that the installation of the wing fix on ZA001 is tentatively scheduled to be complete just before the middle part of the month. Once ZA001 and/or ZA002 are ready, ZY997 becomes the pacing item for the full-scale validation of the side of body modification.

Mr. Norris followed up with an additional post this afternoon that mapped out the remaining tasks for ZA001 before first flight. His assessment leads to a late-December target for ZA001's first flight. Once the static testing is complete and the fix is validated, Mr. Norris says, ZA001 will begin a three-week pre-flight process of gauntlet tests and other activity.

My sources and Guy's sources both agree: Either way there's a busy December in store for Everett.

Spirit to deliver 10 787 shipsets in 2009

2009-11-05T21:15:33Z

Spirit AeroSystems CEO Jeff Turner says his company will deliver 10 787 shipsets to Boeing by the end of 2009. Turner says that six shipsets were delivered to Boeing's Everett, Washington facility in the first half of 2009, with two in October.

To date, Spirit has shipped eight 787 shipsets, including two flight test units and six production barrels. Boeing currently has Airplane 12 in final assembly, with 13 and 14 to follow before year's end. In June, Spirit projected that it would deliver between 10 and 12 shipsets for the mid-size long-range aircraft.

Turner says that Spirit will restart regular composite barrel fabrication later this quarter as it prepares to meet Boeing's 787 production ramp up. Spirit is responsible for the engine pylons, leading edges of the wings and the forward fuselage of the aircraft.

Photos of note: A330-200F completes maiden flight

2009-11-05T16:11:28Z

The first Airbus A330-200F (F-WWYE) completed its four-hour maiden flight in skies over France, kicking off a four-month, 180-hour flight test campaign that will see the first freighter handed over to Etihad Airways in August of 2010.

On the flightdeck of the Pratt & Whitney PW4000-powered freighter (MSN 1004) for the 3h 50min flight were Airbus test pilots Philippe Perrin and Martin Scheuermann, accompanied by test-flight engineers Wolfgang Brueggemann, Stephane Vaux and Pascal Verneau.

Flight International Magazine Deputy Editor Max Kingsley-Jones was on hand for the first flight, which saw the aircraft flown to its maximum altitude and speed of 41,000 feet a 330 knots. The aircraft was also flown down to its lowest speed or Alpha Max. Max reports that when the A330 Freighter returned to Toulouse, it flew two autoland approaches, include a late go-around and touch-and-go, before making a full stop landing on Runway 32.

The maiden flight of the aircraft came a day after the aircraft completed rejected take off testing and two weeks after leaving the paint hangar. EASA and FAA certification is expected in March of next year.

Photos Courtesy Airbus

A330F undergoes RTO testing in Toulouse

2009-11-04T16:11:52Z

With just under a day to go before her maiden sortie, the Airbus A330-200F underwent rejected takeoff (RTO) testing at the Toulouse-Blagnac Airport in the south of France. The high-speed taxi tests are part of the final series of check-outs on the new freighter before its scheduled first flight tomorrow morning.

The first A330F (F-WWYE - MSN1004) is now wearing marketing stickers on either side of its windowless fuselage. The left side of the aircraft reads "the right aircraft right now" and the right side reads "Efficient, reliable, profitable".

RTO testing brings the aircraft to just under the takeoff decision speed known as V1. At anytime below the V1 speed, the aircraft is able to safely stop in the remaining length of the runway. The decision speed is determined based on many factors including the length of the runway, weight of the aircraft, thrust rating of the engine, as well as runway and weather conditions.

Airbus will be streaming live video of the A330F's first flight on its website beginning at 8:30 GMT (3:30 AM ET) Thursday morning.

Photo Credit Eurospot

Airbus pencils in November 5th for A330F first flight

2009-11-03T16:48:56Z

One small item on Airbus.com caught my eye this morning:

First flight of the A330-200F freighter
5 November 2009

Toulouse, France

The A330-200F's first flight is planned for 5 November (weather permitting) from Airbus' Toulouse, France headquarters. This maiden takeoff will mark a key milestone for the cargo version of Airbus' popular A330 jetliner, which is the first new mid-sized freighter to be launched in 40 years. Photos, video and articles from the event will be posted after the first flight.

Right now, the weather forecast for Thursday in Toulouse looks rather nasty. Thursday's forecast calls for 70% chance of precipitation and rain, wind and thunder with a high of 53 F (12 C) with a low of 46 F (7C).

The A330-200F is due for certification in spring next year, with the first delivery to follow during the summer. Etihad Airways is expected to be the first to take delivery. Total orders stand at 67 firm from nine customers.

Photo Credit Airbus

Bombardier opens the curtains on CSeries (Update1)

2009-11-02T19:37:43Z

A little over a week ago, my colleague Mary Kirby and I had a chance to join several industry journalists in an interview with Gary Scott, president of Bombardier commercial aircraft programs.

The small gathering was part of a kickoff to a roadshow Bombardier has begun to market its new narrow-body CSeries aircraft to airlines and lessors. The first stop was New York city to be followed by stops in Europe, Asia and the Middle East.

Our hour-long conversation covered an enormous amount of ground on the future of the CSeries. After being twice burned with the 787 and A380, Scott says that program execution is the number one concern of airlines looking to buy into a new aircraft.

Scott, for the first time, outlined the five-aircraft flight test program that Bombardier has planned for the 100 to 125-seat CS100 which has a planned 2013 EIS. After flight test, all the aircraft, Scott says, will be offered up for sale and likely sold with a discount following refurbishment.

He also discussed emerging competition from China, Brazil and Japan and how a Comac selection of the GTF for the C919 would be an endorsement of the CSeries. Scott also spoke candidly about the Trans States MRJ order which neither Bombardier nor Embraer was invited to bid on.

Bombardier has put a lot of energy into designing the cabin of the CSeries which will include a five-abreast layout and a 1-inch wider middle seat. The overhead bins, Scott says, will enable passengers to carry on more luggage, avoiding baggage fees and reducing ramp baggage loading times for aircraft. The company is also looking distantly down the road to a time when the passenger interior is removed and fitted in VIP configuration to create a new BBJ, or Bombardier Business Jet.

Lastly, and perhaps most importantly, the composite wing of the CSeries was a topic of conversation. Rather than laying down composite tape for the top and bottom wingskins, Bombardier will use resin transfer injection to create the CFRP panels at the company's Belfast unit. The new $520 million facility represents the largest investment in the history of Northern Ireland.

Scott says that Bombardier went back and took a long, hard look at the CSeries wing design after Boeing announced the side-of-body issue with the 787 wing, but ultimately made no changes to its own design as a result. In addition, Scott reaffirmed that both the CS100 and CS300 would have a common 115 foot 1 inch (35.1m) wing design even though the wing is sized for the larger CS300.

Scott's comments came after I asked him whether or not the CS100 was carrying around too much extra weight as a result of the larger wing in comparison to the Embraer E-195. The Brazilian airframer says the CS100 only offers a 2% advantage in cash operating costs over the E-195.

"Yes, we have a bigger wing, but it's optimized for our family and putting a larger wing on does add weight, no doubt about it. Obviously we've offset that with the new materials, as well as the fly-by-wire. That gives us the range that our customers want and that also gives us performance. The CS100 can take off in less than 5,000 feet of runway. It can fly in an out of London City it also can fly in and out of difficult airports...whether it's Jackson Hole or Western China. The Embraer [E-195] can't do any of that, it needs over 7,000 feet of runway to take off. The bigger wing means you can actually carry payload, so at high/hot conditions like in Denver, I'm not sure how many people the E-195 can carry, but it's not many, so they have to start dumping payload in a hurry if they want to fly very far. So the bigger wing...is intended to solve all of those different issues."

Embraer's formal response to Mr. Scott's comments on the E-195:

"While Embraer is not in a position to comment on the strategic positioning its competitors are aiming with their own projects, it is important to note that over 600 Embraer E-Jets have already been delivered to 45 airlines operating in five continents, providing significant benefits in terms of performance, economics and passenger comfort.

E-Jets are flying right now - in 2009, from challenging airports like Denver and London City, stretching the right-sizing benefit to cities that otherwise could not be served as efficiently and environmentally friendly."

Movie Monday - November 2 - On board BA001

2009-11-02T11:30:42Z

British Airways Flight 001, formerly of Concorde fame, just passed the one month mark as the moniker of the airline's new London City to New York-JFK all-business class service aboard two newly delivered Airbus A318 aircraft. The pair of 32-seat aircraft BA operates (G-EUNA & G-EUNB) can make the trip across the Atlantic to LCY non-stop and make one stop in Shannon, Ireland to fuel up and pre-clear the passengers through US customs. BA thinks they're really on to something here with the easy access to the London Financial District. The cabin is 32 MiniPod seats from B/E Aerospace with OnAir wireless connectivity.

Movie Monday returns after an extended hiatus with a three-part look inside Speedbird 001's new trans-atlantic service. CNN's Richard Quest takes us on board the flight across the pond with the smallest Airbus for his show, Business Traveller.

Mr. Quest says that the price of a round trip ticket is about $9,000, but a quick search on britishairways.com yielded a $4,500 price tag, which seems reasonable, even for a niche business class product.

Part Two and Three are after the jump. Enjoy!

The littlest airplane geeks come out for Halloween

2009-11-02T03:44:07Z

Sometimes you can just tell when you've got an airplane geek in your midst. FlightBlogger reader and proud papa Chris Darringer sent these photos of 23-month old Theo to me this evening of his little guy trick-or-treating.

He writes that Theo "dressed up as a 747-8, performing final gauntlet testing for Halloween. Like Boeing, I experienced some manufacturing problems with wrinkles in the fuselage and mounting of the wings (which I fixed with the "stringers"). Luckily my plane launched on time this year, though ;)"

Thanks Chris!

FlightBlogger on the Web (October 1-30)

2009-10-30T18:41:20Z

I'm pretty sure it's a safe bet to say that October 2009 has been the single busiest month I've had at Flight since I first started almost two years ago. Needless to say, I've been bad about keeping up with this regular posting with all the travel. Here's a good recap of the last month of what I've been up to beyond FlightBlogger.

Boeing plans 787 'surge', selects Charleston for second line - FlightGlobal
Boeing will surge 787 production early to meet customer demand as part of the establishment of the newly announced Charleston 787 second line.

United Airlines retires its last 737 - USA Today

Capt. Bob Russo has flown for United since 1978, with nearly all of his years in the cockpit of a Boeing 737. He loved flying the jet so much that he said he'd retire with the 737 if United ever removed the aircraft from its fleet.

Bombardier and Embraer say Trans States MRJ order was no-bid - FlightGlobal
Embraer and Bombardier senior executives say US regional carrier Trans States Holdings (TSH) did not hold a formal competition between airframers before placing an order earlier this month for up to 100 Mitsubishi Regional Jets.

Boeing completes detailed design of 787 wing fix - FlightGlobal

Boeing engineers have completed detailed design and computer validation of the final aspects of the 787 wing fix, the company says. The the final parts are currently being fabricated for the side of body modification that has kept the 787 grounded.

World Airliners Special - Gigantic problems - ultra large airliners - FlightGlobal
When Boeing's 747-100 entered service in 1970, operators around the globe realised unprecedented efficiencies in seat-km costs, reducing the cost of world travel and bolstering the financial bottom line for airlines and later for air freight operators.

NBAA 09: Livemercial shows off airliner-turned-luxuryliner - Flight Evening News
Livemercial aims to deliver business jet comfort at an airline operator's cost by converting small airliners to VIP configurations.

NBAA 09: EAA underscores importance of young people to the future of aviation - Flight Evening News
As EAA celebrated flying more than 1.5 million young people over the past 17 years as part of the Young Eagles program, the organization looks to the future of the aerospace industry.

NBAA 09: Cautious Gulfstream sees reason to be optimistic - Flight Evening News
The business aviation industry is not out of the woods just yet, but General Dynamics executive vice-president Joe Lombardo is cautiously optimistic about the prospect for the future.

NBAA 09: Airbus Corporate Jet Centre launches VIP Pass - Flight Evening News
The Airbus Corporate Jet Centre (ACJC) has launched a "VIP Pass" program for its jetliner-derived business aircraft, offering a tailored package of services to executive, private and government operators for its ACJ family of aircraft.

NBAA 09: Hawker Beechcraft's Boisture sees 'protracted conflict' - Flight Evening News
In a military style press conference, Hawker Beechcraft leadership struck a confident note amid a tumultuous year that has taken its toll on the airframer

NBAA 09: Wichita woes - FlightGlobal
The Wichita aerospace cluster is the story of a city transformed by a global economic downturn that saw near-collapse in the credit market, slowing corporate profits and a headwind of public opinion that branded business aircraft as luxury jets and foolish expenditures for the dalliances of the ultra-wealthy.

NBAA 09: Hitting back at the critics - FlightGlobal
On 19 November 2008, just days after the US Presidential election, auto executives from Chrysler, Ford and General Motors flew to Washington DC aboard their company business aircraft to ask a lame-duck session of Congress for $25 billion in bailout funding to stave off a complete collapse US car industry.

Dreamliner troubles return to haunt 747-8F - FlightGlobal
The diversion of engineering resources to Boeing's troubled Dreamliner has forced the airframer to give up on its plan to fly the first 747-8 Freighter on 9 December and deliver an aircraft to Cargolux in the third quarter of next year.

New Photos, Videos & Podcasts
I've added 209 new photos to my Flickr feed in the last month, including 190 from NBAA and 29 shots from flying around Seattle in a Cessna 172 last May with pilot/photographer Charles Conklin. I've also uploaded six new videos to YouTube as well, covering the Airbus tray table, the interior models of the 747-8I and 787 VIP, the unveiling of the Embraer Legacy 650 and the Panasonic Fusion IFE seat design. I also managed to squeeze in two podcast. One discussing business aviation with the Airplane Geeks and another about the selection of Charleston for the second 787 line with IAG. Phew, what a month.

Photos of Note: Air France takes delivery of first A380

2009-10-30T15:02:41Z

The late afternoon sunshine in Hamburg set the scene for the handover of the first 538-seat Airbus A380 to Air France. Operating as AFR380V, MSN033 (F-HPJA) departed XFW at 2:39 PM local time for Paris.

Vidcaps Courtesy of Airbus

The many moving parts of the Charleston line decision

2009-10-29T20:19:14Z

Everett's Surge
Over the next two years or so, Boeing will continue to ramp up 787-8 production with the help of the newly-announced temporary surge line. The line will be established on the existing 767 line inside Building 40-24, two bays down from the current 787 line, say company sources. The 767, which will continue operating at around a 1-per month production rate, will be turned around in the back of 40-24 and roll out of Building 40-34. Boeing may have to make provisions to ensure a fully assembled 767 can transit to the flight line. Sometime in 2012, Boeing will begin final assembly and testing of the first 787-9 in Everett, where the aircraft will be built. Seven of the 10 787s assembled per month will originate in Everett.

Charleston Timeline
Boeing says that the Charleston line will be up and running by July 2011, with groundbreaking in the next few weeks. For the sake of comparison, Global Aeronautica ground breaking was February 7, 2005, with tooling and equipment moved into the facility by December 2006. Initially the plan is to have Boeing Charleston build 3 787-8s per month as part of the 10 per month ramp up. First delivery of a 787-8 from Boeing Charleston is planned for the first quarter of 2012.

Dreamlifter Dynamics
With the second line set to be up and running by 2012, the small fleet of modified 747 LCF Dreamlifters will be deployed differently than they currently are now. The number of inbound structural delivery flights to Everett is now seven per aircraft. For Charleston, best estimates show that that number would reduce to six. This is mainly because without the aft and center fuselages will be built on site in Charleston. Boeing saves flights of the horizontal stabilizer, however, the wings will have an additional flight from PAE to CHS and the vertical tail plane will also likely be flown from BFI (closer to Frederickson, WA) to CHS. The total distance traveled by the LCF is 16405 nm to Everett vs. 13933 nm to Charleston.

EVERETT	ROUTE	Flights	Distance
WINGS (Nagoya, JP)	NGO-ANC-PAE	2	4369
FWD FUSE (Wichita)	IAB-PAE	1	1258
HTP (Foggia, IT)	TAR-CHS-PAE	2	6574
CENTER & AFT (Charleston)	CHS-PAE	2	4205
	TOTAL:	7	16405	NM

CHARLESTON	ROUTE	Flights	Distance
WINGS (Nagoya, JP)	NGO-ANC-PAE-CHS	3	6471
FWD FUSE (Wichita)	IAB-CHS	1	891
HTP (Foggia, IT)	TAR-CHS	1	4472
VTP (Washington)	BFI-CHS	1	2099
	TOTAL:	6	13933	NM

Delivery Geography
Though not officially announced, there is a the possibility of shaping the 787 firing order based on the geographical location of the customer. I spoke with one program source yesterday who said that Boeing may consider delivering European and African 787s through Charleston and Asia/Pacific 787s through Everett to take advantage of the relative proximity of each line.

The Tanker Wild Card
Hanging out in the not so distant future is the USAF KC-X tanker deal. If Boeing wins this iteration of the competition, the KC-767 or KC-777 will be built in Everett, however the mission systems installation will be done elsewhere. That location was always thought to be McConnell Air Force Base in Wichita, Kansas, however, Boeing now says they will choose the cheapest location for the modifications, which could now mean that Charleston is in the mix. Boeing went to great lengths to say that the Charleston line is only for 787 work, but let's file this one under wild card.

Photo Credit Boeing

BREAKING: Boeing selects Charleston for 2nd 787 final assembly line

2009-10-28T21:11:40Z

UPDATE 6:45 PM: Reaction:

UPDATE 5:18 PM: Internal message from Boeing Commercial Airplanes CEO Jim Albaugh:

A few minutes ago the Board of Directors approved the selection of North Charleston, S.C., as the location for a second final assembly site for the 787. A news release will be issued shortly. At 2:30 p.m. today, Pat Shanahan, Ray Conner and Scott Fancher will hold an all-manager webcast from Everett to provide details and answer questions. A Q&A document also will be distributed to help you answer questions from your teams.

I know this decision may be of concern to many of our employees in Puget Sound, and I am counting on all managers to help everyone focus on the larger picture. Establishing a second 787 assembly line in Charleston will expand our production capability, diversify our manufacturing base and ultimately drive down the cost of the 787 -- sustaining our competitiveness. We are adding jobs in South Carolina, not taking them away from Puget Sound. We expect there will be speculation among employees and in the media about what role the IAM played in this decision. While the union did not give us reasonable assurances or sustainable economics, this ultimately came down to a strategic decision for the long-term growth of the company.

Puget Sound has and will continue to be our center for design, flight test and manufacturing. We have exciting programs to work on, including the majority of the production for the 787. Our long-range business plan shows increasing airplane production across all of our product lines here in Puget Sound.

The 787 is an airplane that will improve the way airlines operate and people travel. The second assembly line for the 787 in Charleston will help us deliver more of these great airplanes to our customers who want and need them...JIM

UPDATE 5:05 PM: It's official:

Boeing to Place Second 787 Assembly Line in North Charleston, SC
SEATTLE, Oct. 28 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Boeing (NYSE: BA) today announced that it has chosen its North Charleston, S.C., facility as the location for a second final assembly site for the 787 Dreamliner program. Boeing evaluated criteria that were designed to find the final assembly location within the company that would best support the 787 business plan as the program increases production rates. In addition to serving as a location for final assembly of 787 Dreamliners, the facility also will have the capability to support the testing and delivery of the airplanes.
"Establishing a second 787 assembly line in Charleston will expand our production capability to meet the market demand for the airplane," said Jim Albaugh, president and CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes. "This decision allows us to continue building on the synergies we have established in South Carolina with Boeing Charleston and Global Aeronautica," he said, adding that this move will strengthen the company's competitiveness and sustainability and help it grow for the long term.

UPDATE 4:58 PM: The second 787 line will go to South Carolina, according to Snohomish Country Executive Aaron Reardon:

"The Boeing Company's announcement to locate a second 787 line in North Charleston, S.C., signals that other states want what we have - a strong manufacturing base. We must all work together and fight to keep it. Washington state must make a conscious decision to do whatever is reasonably necessary to aggressively compete to keep the jobs we have and grow our economy or risk more losses.

"The loss of the second line of the 787 will most certainly result in finger pointing. I urge all parties to resist that temptation as it is counterproductive and does nothing to further our objective to be the most competitive state in the country.

"What's important moving forward is that we all understand why these two parties could not reach an agreement so that we may play a role in rebuilding this relationship. In addition, we must bring all the necessary parties together in Olympia to reach agreement on removing the barriers that prevent new investment and job creation."

UPDATED 4:38 PM: Boeing says that a final decision on the 787 line has not yet been made and reports regarding employee meetings are "not true."

UPDATE 4:27 PM: Word from Boeing Charleston: Mandatory managers meeting now scheduled for 5PM ET.

4:11 PM: SPEEA's tweet just came across the 'tubes' and it reads:

Boeing calls emergency meeting for 787 employees in Everett.

According to SPEEA, the all-hands meeting was called at 12:30 PT and is apparently still underway right now.

SPEEA Executive Director Ray Goforth believes that it is connected the selection of a second 787 final assembly line.

I'm working all sources to find out more.

Anyone have more information? Prelude to a second line announcement?

News Analysis: Second 787 line saga approaches an end

2009-10-28T19:21:41Z

As the clock passed midnight on the East Coast last night, the Seattle Times reported that negotiations between Boeing and the IAM had broken down, all but assuring that Charleston would take joint custody of Boeing's 787 final assembly operations.

An announcement, thought to be days - if not hours away, say program sources - will finally bring to a close the "will they, won't they" discussion. Boeing is set to make a decision that could represent not only an existential transformation in its nearly century-long history, but a seismic shift in the North American commercial aerospace industrial center of gravity.

The last time Boeing opened a new commercial final assembly operation, it was in Everett for the 747 in the late 1960s.

Not to mention, a second 787 line might be the biggest positive economic deal this country has seen after a recession that began just days after the IAM authorized its strike in September of last year.

South Carolina's silent treatment of the competition is quite telling in comparison to that of Washington state, which as a century-old hub of aerospace expertise has had to awkwardly justify its existence. Washington state, for all its logistical and technical advantages, couldn't override the one political roadblock that dominated Boeing's thinking.

The hushed tones of Charleston County Airport Authority meetings and the mystery economic incentives passed by the South Carolina State Senate finance committee only served to reinforce the "worst kept secret" approach to the Lowcountry's bid for the 787 line.

The $170 million economic incentive package, passed yesterday out of committee, would exempt manufacturers from the state fuel tax for test flights and transporting aircraft. The package known as Project Gemini, after the Zodiac symbol 'Twins', didn't name Boeing, but then again, it didn't have to.

The silence from Charleston, one senior executive says, is a quiet confidence created by a document known as the Master Charleston Campus Plan. Those who have seen it say it outlines a massive expansion of the Boeing Charleston site including a final assembly line, delivery center, flight line and paint hangars. The plan is so compelling that the US Senators who quietly visited Boeing Charleston earlier this fall, and the normally vocal Mayor of Charleston, have virtually remained silent on the matter.

The reality is that Charleston has not always been the front runner for the 787 line. In 2007 and 2008, Charleston, it appeared, could do no right. Cash-strapped Vought sharing responsibility with Alenia Aeronautica at Global Aeronautica was nothing short of a crippling bottleneck for the program. Poor workmanship, arbitrary processes and an unstable design and oversight by omission did nothing to untangle Boeing's ability to manage the program. Boeing would eventually be forced to purchase 50% of Global Aeronautica in March 2008. Charleston was the last place Boeing wanted to lay down its roots.

Yet, as Boeing began to come to grips with the management of its global supply chain, coupled with the cost of doing business in Charleston with partners with their own bottom line to bolster, Boeing began to see the existing arrangement as a losing proposition. Negotiating the incorporation of design changes was an expensive and time consuming process and financially unstable partners presented an unacceptable risk to the program.

By early summer, it had become clear that the ownership of Vought's aft fuselage fabrication and integration plant would change hands. There were at least some high-level indications that the announcement of the acquisition could have come as early as the Paris Air Show, but "emergent first flight issues", now known to be the side-of-body issue, took precedent.

When the deal was announced on July 7th, it represented the company's biggest commercial expansion since its merger 12 years earlier with McDonnell Douglas. Yet, what had been quiet speculation about the future of Charleston, Boeing's purchase of Vought's 787 operations amounted to a proverbial starting gun for the competition for the second line.

Late Summer brought the filing of permits for the Charleston line and the de-certification of the IAM at Boeing Charleston, the last of the major hurdles for Boeing's competition. Both events would set the stage for the secret negotiations between Boeing and the leadership of the IAM, which appear to have ended in stalemate. For now.

Washington state elected officials are now frantically working both sides, trying to bring Boeing and the IAM back to the table, while Boeing maintains that no final decision has been made on the location of the line.

In the words of Yogi Berra: "It ain't over till it's over.

Underlying the whole selection process is a shifting justification for the second line. As Boeing was accumulating orders at a stunning pace, the company entertained the idea of using a second assembly line to raise production rates to as high as 16 787s per month, beyond the 10 per month it had planned for the end of 2009. However, as the reality of the production troubles set in, the difficulty in ramping up made the second line imperative to get to the originally targeted 10 per month, now set for the end of 2013.

It cannot be far from Boeing's mind that the "assurance of delivery" their customers seek is as much about labor relations as it is about program execution.

When the final announcement is made, congratulations will be offered, fingers will be pointed and blame will invariably be cast. The decision is both the close of another chapter for the 787, and the beginning of an entirely new one. All of this comes before a single hour has been flown by the Dreamliner.

What's past is prologue