Dear Barb:

What are your feelings about attending conferences? I attended the Fordyce Forum last year and I’m sad to admit that I have not changed one thing. So, am I going to get an ROI on the investment – the answer is NO. I wasted my time and money and I’m more frustrated now than I was before I attended. Too many speakers talked about trends vs. giving me ideas I could implement in my business. I know you often speak at these things, so maybe you can’t give me an objective answer — or can you?

Anonymous Fordyce Forum Attendee

Dear Anonymous:

No one can force you to enjoy an ROI on your investment of time and money. However, if you don’t, it’s 100% your fault! At live events you have the incredible opportunity to network with other owners and recruiters and learn from what they do. You need to pull out your notes TODAY and pick one idea you will implement right now. At the end of the month, select another new idea for next month and continue through the end of this quarter. If you continue to work your desk the SAME way, you will get the SAME results. If you implement one change for the next four months – you will more than enjoy an ROI on your investment and decision to attend the Forum.

I hope you’ll return to the Fordyce Forum again this year and find some new techniques and thought processes to apply to your business and start making some changes!

Barbara J. Bruno, CPC, CTS

Would you like to Ask Barb a question? Email her at support@staffingandrecruiting.com. Each month in The Fordyce Letter print edition, Barbara Bruno answers questions from individuals in the Recruiting Profession. We will bring you some of these Q&A responses from Barb each week on FordyceLetter.com.

Using a proper methodology for setting your goals is very important because the result must be specific, realistic, and most importantly, achievable. Additionally, you must baseline your performance and establish specific activity benchmarks that must be met on a daily, weekly, and monthly basis in order to achieve your goals (see my June 2008 article in The Fordyce Letter, “Baseline Your Performance”).

Observations from my consulting work with hundreds of search and staffing firms indicate that goal setting is generally a challenge for both management and staff. However, as turnover rates and year-end results clearly demonstrate, the bigger challenge is achieving the goals once they are established.

With most staffing/recruiting firms, the goals of the organization reflect the collective goals of the producers. If all the producers reach or surpass their goals, the organization will reach or surpass its goals. Consequently, for the purposes of this article, we will present eight key steps to follow for the achievement of individual goals.

As stated in the above referenced article, annual goals should be broken down into quarterly, monthly, weekly, and even daily goals. Once this is in place, each producer in the organization should monitor their activity and results in relationship to these goals.

Remember

The responsibility for performance always belongs to the performer.

For those of you who are performers (producers), here are eight steps you can implement immediately to help ensure you do not fall behind the pace necessary to achieve your annual goals.

Step One: Have a full week of marketing and recruiting calls planned before arriving at the office each Monday.

You determine the number of calls to plan by reviewing your performance ratios, particularly the job order/search to placement ratio, the marketing calls to job order/search ratio, the individuals called to individuals recruited ratio, the candidates presented to clients versus the candidates interviewed ratio, and the candidates interviewed by your clients to candidates hired ratio. You will also need to factor in the number of calls attempted to the number of calls (connects) completed ratio. This is essential if you are to have the proper number of preplanned calls in place each Monday morning.

Some will balk at the idea of preplanning an entire week’s worth of calls. Since ours is a dynamic business with circumstances and opportunities changing on a daily basis, they argue that flexibility is the key and therefore, planning an entire week’s worth of calls is a waste of time. Conceptually they may have a point but in reality the fact remains that the average producer wastes over 50% of their time every day. Remember:

Parkinson’s Law

“Work expands to fill the time allotted for its completion.”

They operate in a reactive mode rather than proactively pursuing the accomplishment of their goals. This is generally reflected in their lack of planning for a full day of productive activity. Consequently, beginning the day with little or no planning in place to keep them focused on productive activity, they exemplify “Parkinson’s Law” as the day slips away in a wash of avoidance behavior and reactive impulse. The do not control their time and therefore do not control their day. The first step to overcoming this problem is to plan enough marketing and recruiting calls (both targeted and continuous cycle) to fill an entire week.

Step Two: Make certain you always have enough calls planned to cover at least two full days of work.

This is a refinement of “Step One” and tightens the focus to help ensure your plan doesn’t run out before your week does. To illustrate the importance of this step you need only look at the results from a typical “intensive care session”.

An “intensive care session” is designed for the producer who is not meeting their goals because they are not putting in enough sustained, focused effort on a daily basis. It’s generally conducted by the manager who greets the producer as they enter the office. The manager explains that the producer will be working in the manager’s office that morning (or, the manager will sit with the producer at their desk). During their time together, the manager will not interfere with or distract the producer. The manager will only serve as an observer. The producer will not be taking any incoming calls (other than the ones agreed upon because of their critical nature), nor will they have access to email until 11:30 AM. The producer’s sole purpose is to execute their plan for the day without any interruptions.

On average, the typical producer who undergoes an “intensive care session” runs out of things (calls) to do within an hour from the start of the session. This is the result of poor or non-existent planning. Conversely, someone who has a minimum of two full days planned in advance will have no difficulty in filling the entire morning with productive activity.

Step Three: Start executing your plan as soon as you arrive at the office each morning.

Begin with your on-going activity (balls in the air) and then complete the part of your plan that you dread the most. It may be a specific call or perhaps a group of calls e.g. candidate marketing. Get those calls completed and behind you for the day. They will never be as difficult as you thought they would be and you will have gained a sense of accomplishment for completing them. This will help provide positive momentum for the remainder of your day.

Step Four: Keep your plan at the center of your desk at all times so that when you are distracted or interrupted, its visible presence will remind you to get back on task.

Don’t cover it up with paper work or shove it off to the side because if you lose sight of your plan you may also lose control of your day. Do not fall prey to the “out of sight, out of mind” phenomenon, which can cost you valuable time. Instead keep your daily plan the central focus of your desk.

Step Five: Give yourself a midday review.

Ask how you are doing in relationship to how you should be doing based on your plan for the day. This midday review is critically important, particularly if you have fallen behind in executing your plan. If you do find yourself behind, the good news is that you have the rest of the day to catch up and complete your planned activities. The downside of not doing a midday review is that you may not realize you are behind plan until the end of the day at which point it is too late to catch up. Not accomplishing your planned objectives for a single day is not catastrophic. However, not accomplishing your plan several days in a row can lead to a less than productive week. These types of weeks can lead to a nonproductive month and a couple of nonproductive months can lead to discouragement and frustration as you begin to realize that the likelihood of achieving your annual goals is remote at best.

Step Six: Give yourself another review at 4:00 PM each afternoon.

If you haven’t had a good day or if you have fallen hopelessly behind on accomplishing your plan, use the rest of the work day to accomplish something positive, e.g. complete five more recruiting or marketing calls, arrange a sendout, complete a couple of reference checks on two of your best candidates. The objective is to create something positive so that when you leave the office for the day you have a sense of accomplishment and positive momentum to carry you over to the next day.

Step Seven: Always think a week at a time.

You may miss your plan on one day but with an entire week’s plan in place, you can maintain your focus. Keep your eye on the “end game” – completely executing the entire week’s plan.

Step Eight: Hold yourself accountable.

Remember, responsibility for performance always belongs to the performer — and you are that performer.

Terry’s Law

We all succeed in inverse proportion to the number of socially acceptable excuses we use to justify our own behavior.

Achievement-oriented people in all walks of life take responsibility for their actions and outcomes. They know the difference between reasons and excuses. If they have a set back one day, they make up for it on another day. When they establish realistic goals, they commit to achieving them regardless of the obstacles or difficulties.

One top producer explained it in this manner:

“Once goals are set there are only two acceptable reasons why they are not accomplished, death or total disability. Anything else is just an excuse.”

He makes his point in rather dramatic fashion. Do not take goal setting lightly. It’s not just an annual exercise in crunching numbers. If the goals you (the operative word being “you”) set are specific, realistic, and achievable, then give your full commitment to accomplishing them. This is done one day at a time. The steps outlined above, if followed, will help ensure you do not fall behind your timeline for goal achievement.

As always, if you have questions or comments about this article or wish to receive my input on any other topic related to this business, just let me know. Your calls and emails are most welcome.

Strike up the band. Break out the confetti. The market’s going to love this. The U.S. unemployment rate dropped to 8.3 percent and non-farm jobs grew by 243,000 in January.

This morning’s monthly report from the U.S. Department of Labor blasted through even the most optimistic of expectations. The jobs gain would have been the largest since May 2010, except that the Labor Department’s data group adjusted 2011′s jobs numbers. Now, only March (+246,000) and April (+251,000) had stronger numbers.

January is the second consecutive month to beat estimates. Economists predicted anywhere from MarketWatch’s tepid 121,000 to the more optimistic 182,000 in the Bloomberg survey. None of the widely reported surveys saw a decline in the unemployment rate.

Indeed, the unemployment rate, which has been declining very slowly since hitting a peak of 10.1 percent in late 2009, is now at the lowest point since February 2009. The government report also put the number of unemployed at 12.8 million. A year ago it was at 13.9 million.

While governments continued to cut jobs — federal jobs were cut by 6,000 and local government cut 11,000 positions — the private sector added 257,000. This was more than 50 percent higher than the ADP estimate earlier in the week.

Most sectors added jobs. Manufacturing accounted for 50,000 new jobs. The services sector as a whole added 176,000 workers, with much of the gain coming in what the government calls “professional and business services.” This includes temp workers and employment services (+33,200) and accounting and bookkeeping services (+12,500), likely due to ramping up for tax season.

Healthcare, a consistent growth area, was up by 30,900 positions. Leisure and hospitality, another growth area for several months, was up by 44,000. Even the battered construction industry managed to add 21,000 jobs during the month.

Only finance (off by 5,000 jobs) and the Information sector (-13,000) lost workers. The latter sector includes far more worker categories than computer professionals and data processing, although these areas also lost workers. The bulk of the loss — 7,900 — came in the motion picture and recording industry.

On top of the strong January numbers, the revisions by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics resulted in improving the overall hiring numbers for 2011 and further. For November and December alone, the BLS revisions showed 60,000 more jobs than initially reported.

Finally, the government said average hourly wages for all non-farm workers rose 4 cents during the month to $23.29. While the average workweek for all workers was unchanged in January, the manufacturing workweek increased by .3 hours to 40.9 and overtime increased to 3.4 hours.

The overall report was so strongly welcomed it sent stock futures soaring before the market opening. The Dow Jones Industrial average futures jumped 95 points.

One cautionary note: The Monster Employment Index, which tracks jobs posted on career sites and job boards, including Monster, has been declining since October. For January, the Index stood at 133, down from October’s 151. The Conference Board, which also tracks online job postings, showed an increase in January, as it did in December. But the total online listings are still not as high as they were in April last year.

HR services company ADP says the U.S. added 170,000 private sector jobs in January, providing more evidence that while the economy isn’t backsliding, it also isn’t advancing.

Indeed the January number came in below the average of 182,000, which is what economists in a Bloomberg survey were expecting. A Dow Jones Newswires survey however put the number right at 170,000.

The ADP report also adjusted down the December numbers from the initial 325,000 to 292,000.  Nearly all the January gain, says ADP, came from companies with fewer than 500 workers, and all but 18,000 of the new jobs were in the service sector. Manufacturing added 10,000 workers during the month.

A year ago, ADP said 190,000 private sector jobs were created in January.

Yesterday’s report, says Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak, “compares to the 2011 monthly average of 160,000 and thus points to a continued recovery but the mediocre pace this far into a recovery still remains frustrating,” He estimates that Friday’s official report from the U.S. Department of Labor will show 165,000 non-farm jobs created in January.

The ADP National Employment Report, produced jointly with Macroeconomic Advisers, is closely watched by economists as an indication of what the official U.S. Labor Department jobs report will show. The government report is usually released on the first Friday of every month.

The two reports rarely match, largely due to differences in methodology. The government report also includes public sector employment. ADP’s report does not. However, as the Globe and Mail (Canada) said in reporting yesterday’s report, “Take the number with a large pinch of salt, but pay attention to the trend.”

That trend, though, is hard to read. While there hasn’t been a negative month since September 2010 (when census layoffs influenced the numbers), job gains have hovered around 100,000 for most of last year. Only in four months did the official numbers break 200,000. In three months, they were well below 100,000.

Like the job numbers, other signs are positive, if tepid. The Conference Board last week said its Leading Economic Index improved slightly in December  to 94.3. It was the third consecutive monthly increase in the index. (The Board also announced changes in how the index is calculated.) Yesterday, the Board’s monthly count of jobs posted online showed 61,300 more jobs in January than the month before. It’s only the second increase in job postings in eight months.

Economists, now, are not expecting any surprises in Friday’s government report. The Wall Street Journal says economists are expecting it to show 125,000 new jobs and no change in the current 8.5 percent unemployment rate.  Reuters puts the number at 150,000. And Bloomberg, which wrote a long piece this morning about growing optimism in the financial markets and among economists, says the Friday jobs report will come in at 145,000.

Many of our clients are staffing and recruiting firms, and because of this we have a unique perspective on the industry. So when it comes to our own hiring processes, we try to glean best practices from industry leaders, but we also try things our own way. As we iterate and refine our methods, we thought it might be interesting to share what we’ve learned.

A little background to start. InsightSquared is located in Cambridge, Massachusetts, but for all intents and purposes we are a Boston-based startup, and that means we are in a competitive city for hiring. Yes, the overall Massachusetts economy has slowed as of late, but the technology startup sector is red-hot. In fact, all across the country, some small/medium tech businesses have increased payroll by almost fivefold, and are having a tough time hiring quick enough. Not only are startups competing against each other, but large companies like Apple and Google have increased their workforce size by 50% in the last two years, snatching up a lot of talent. Either way, tech recruiting is an area of growth and we can tell that recruiters are acutely aware of it.

What Recruiters Should Know

On vacancies…

If you ask a tech startup whether it’s hiring, you usually get this response: “For the right candidate,” meaning that they are never done hiring. In a field where speed and talent wins, if a stellar developer even comes within the vicinity of the office, he/she will be snatched up faster than an intern can be stuffed in the server room to make space.

On interviews…

We’re over the gimmicky interview logic puzzles as many startups seem to be. Real-world coding questions are given to developers during interviews, most from actual problems we have faced in the company. Thinking on one’s feet quickly is giving way to being able to think through coding problems carefully and thoroughly.

On turnaround time…

Speed wins. We try to make a decision on a candidate within a week, oftentimes less. Being quick and responsive to candidates works, especially for really talented ones that may eventually have multiple offers on the table. As a recruiter, we know you already work fast, but startup turn around time might be faster than you think.

On activity spurts…

HR activity at startups come in batches. The people doing the interviews and decision-making are also the people running every other aspect of the company. We’ll focus on hiring intensely for a week or two at a time, then get too busy with the actually product to spend time on it. A recruiter working with startups should be aware of these cycles and strike when the iron is … not in an all-hands-on-deck product release.

On selling points…

It’s hard for anyone to compete with Google or Apple’s bottomless pockets, and that includes Exxon and the U.S. government. That’s why the culture of a startup is a big part of negotiations, as this sets us apart from the giants. Can you really own your project at large companies? How much autonomy do you get? How cutting edge is your work at a behemoth? How much upward mobility is there, and how quickly? Getting in on the ground floor of an exciting startup is a huge selling point that makes us competitive with the antitrust line-toers of the world.

On fee agreements…

We know recruiters like to advise each other, “Never send a candidate without a fee agreement in place,” but we think you may want to reconsider. The danger for a startup is to have dozens of fee agreements floating out there. That’s a lot of capital to put aside for hires. Furthermore, going back and forth on a fee agreement contract takes up precious time in the process that most startups don’t have. On the other hand, we understand the dangers on the recruiters’ side: what’s to keep a startup from taking a resume and contacting them directly?

These days, the answer is reputation. Startups have little to no clout in the industry and are very wary of a bad reputation. We’re working to get a talent base, a client base, an investor base; the risk of garnering a bad reputation with a recruiter is not one we’d take. Instead of withholding talent for a fee agreement, recruiters might want to lead with a resume of a good candidate off the bat and make clear that if we are interested, we need to work with him/her. It’s nowhere near a big a risk as you think.

Are you recruiting or hiring for a startup? What has been your experience?

To find out more about InsightSquared, visit www.insightsquared.com.

Dear Barb:

Do things normally pick up early in the year? Which quarter of the year is historically the best for our profession? I keep hearing different answers to this question and felt if anyone could provide an accurate answer, you could.

I also wanted to thank you for the free webinar you recently did “What can you expect in 2012?” We have already implemented many of the ideas you shared.

Mary Jane R., Austin, TX

Dear Mary Jane:

In the current market, there is no reason that would prevent you from having four strong quarters. The Staffing and Recruiting Profession is cyclical and tied to economic conditions that are often not predictable. Historically, I’ve not seen one particular quarter that consistently stands out.

The key to consistent production is planning and keeping numbers, stats, and ratios. This allows you to determine the exact results you need daily to hit or surpass goals set. The most important number to track is your send-out numbers. If you increase your send-out totals each month (only first interview counted) you will increase your production and income.

Often recruiters write off December as a slow month and yet I know many Staffing and Recruiting Firms that broke company records this last December. It goes back to the phrase, “If you think you can, or you think you can’t – you’re right!”

Barbara J. Bruno, CPC, CTS

Would you like to Ask Barb a question? Email her at support@staffingandrecruiting.com. Each month in The Fordyce Letter print edition, Barbara Bruno answers questions from individuals in the Recruiting Profession. We will bring you some of these Q&A responses from Barb each week on FordyceLetter.com.

For years employers have been screening candidates based on content on social networking websites. Candidates using poor judgment online may be screened out of the process.  Now employers and recruiters are turning to social media to aid in the selection of knowledgeable and well-connected employees.

Klout measures an individual’s influence across social media entities, such as Twitter.  Data under consideration are network size, amount of content generated, and volume of interaction. That data is processed to produce a Klout score ranging from 1 to 100.  The higher the score, presumably the higher the individual’s social media influence.  Klout scores are categorized into measures, including “True Reach” (size of engaged audience), “Amplification Probability” (rate of action taken on message, such as retweets), and “Network Score” (value of a person’s engaged audience).

Consideration of a candidate’s Klout score is the latest trend in recruitment.  As social media proficiency and influence are becoming more valuable in many occupations, the Klout score is becoming a valued source of knowledge contributing to a hiring decision. It may not be a primary determining factor, but it could help tip the scale in a candidate’s favor.  All things equal, a candidate with a high Klout score may win the day.

However, sometimes a new trend can lead a manager to make a costly hiring mistake. Some managers are eager to hop onto the next great idea, even when it’s not the appropriate method for all job vacancies. In other cases, a hiring manager may place more importance on a Klout score than appropriate. It’s the job of a seasoned recruiter to put the Klout score and other candidate data into perspective to facilitate the decision making process.

For example, is a low Klout score a sign that a candidate is less valuable?  Does it weaken a candidate’s brand?   Not necessarily.  For every individual actively building a social media empire, there are hundreds of candidates reviewing, analyzing, and utilizing the data found on social media sites.

Obviously, in some positions, social media interaction is critical; in others not so much.  A community manager with a low Klout score may want to spend some time on his personal brand to build his clout in his area of expertise to increase the Klout score.  A database administrator with a high Klout True Reach score may be very impressive if she is using her time blogging about her field. However, if she is known in social media as the ultimate authority on the Battlestar Gallactica, it is very impressive but may not give her the edge when interviewing.  There are many instances when a Klout score is not relevant due to the occupation or industry.

There are legal aspects of using social media to make a hiring decision.  As a recruiting professional, it is important to stay abreast of changes in this area of employment law.  One reason it may be a risky addition to a formal hiring plan is that social media provides a glimpse into a candidate’s religion, sexual orientation, marital status, gender, and age.  Because those items are protected by anti-discrimination laws, an employer is forbidden from using that data as a hiring factor.  The line could be blurred unless filtering safeguards are implemented so hiring managers do not receive those details.  Additionally, this is an opportunity for training of both human resource managers as well as hiring managers.

The bottom line is that this is an area to watch.  As a professional recruiter, you can increase your clout with your clients by remaining knowledgeable in this evolving space in the world of employee selection.

WHAT IS HYPE vs. WHAT IS HIP

This is the time of year when recruiters ask me about which industry conference to attend. More specifically, “WHY THE FORDYCE FORUM?”

It’s a really good question. If you’re going to take time from your desk and money from your bank, you deserve to return home able to make more placements than when you left.

I’ve attended over a hundred conferences over four decades. Every size and shape of industry confab you can imagine. National, regional and state associations, chapters, societies, franchises, networks, retreats, boot camps, cruises, sleepovers, whatever. Among the few people who have attended more is Fordyce founding father Paul Hawkinson. We’ve done every kind of presentation from “marquee” to “just you and me.” Paul and I would return from one shindig after another marveling at what is hype and the lack of hipness thereof.

The Fordyce Forum is the realization of Paul’s dream to combine the benefits of a convention with the benefits of a more personal learning experience. When ERE Media acquired The Fordyce Letter in 2006, its expertise at hosting conferences made the event possible.

Unlike the one-large-size-fits-all staffing conventions, you won’t be hobnobbing with nurses registry or temp service folks. You won’t be taking precious placement time talking with spouses who don’t know a job order from a fee schedule. You won’t be crunched in a folding chair in a huge meeting room trying to take notes from an enter-trainer. You won’t be deluged with vendors selling things you can’t use.

The small niche recruiter enclaves have the right idea. There, you can really learn from high billers who fight their way through placement after placement every day like you. The problem there is that smaller conferences can’t attract enough professional trainers. The trainers don’t charge, don’t sell much product, and don’t generate consulting gigs because there aren’t enough people. So they pass on the smaller groups.

I’m like you – I’m too busy for small talk. I’m into efficiency. Results. Now.

When you sign up for the Fordyce Forum, you’re getting:

1. The best real-world training on the placement planet.

Amybeth Hale, the TFL Editor, invites everyone to submit proposals for sessions – megabillers, trainers, or anyone else with a solid background and idea. Since the other hosts of conferences don’t have the reach of TFL, they can’t start the selection process from a universe like that. Then Amybeth works with the conference chair to select the best and brightest to present the most practical sessions.

Amybeth knows what’s happening and listens to the buzz. A few knowledgeable people make the selection, so the roster of speakers is balanced. Their message is consistent, and the presentations complement each other.

2. An optimum learning environment.

Even the best trainer can’t train the acrobats while the circus is going on.

The large associations don’t hold “conferences,” they hold conventions. People don’t “confer,” they “convene.” Raffles, door prizes, awards, junkets, backslapping speeches, and an amorphous mass of people milling around. Distractions everywhere.

But at the Fordyce Forum, you see recruiters staying after the sessions to talk to the speakers about something that really matters to them. It usually centers around bill paying.

3. A “mastermind group” of sophisticated peers.

There’s a high degree of interaction among the participants. The quality of the participants is also high. Since virtually everyone there makes management or professional placements every day, there’s an instant identification.

From the halls around the meeting area, through the bars and up the elevators, recruiters share problems and solutions informally. Sourcing, presenting, closing, collecting.

There’s no pretentiousness.

4. Much Fordyce family fun.

You look around and so many people are enjoying themselves. Talking about what they love most. They’re smiling!

They feel right at home, and they really are.

5. Flawless execution.

Kate Wilson and her conference team are simply amazing. I need to tell you this because they make it look so easy.

Everything goes smoothly because they’re professionals at what they do. You don’t waste time waiting for a session to start, trying to get something resolved with some well-intentioned volunteer, or losing your way in some cavernous maze.

The team’s attention to detail, warmth, and genuine caring make the event a pleasure to attend.

6. Jeff’s On Site!

Once a year I meet with recruiters personally, confidentially, and for free. Only once; only there. We’ll pump my 45 years of experience into whatever placement or law things your heart desires.

I put my money where my mouthpiece is because you’re a cut above. How do I know? You showed up.

If you schedule a session, I look forward to helping you with whatever placement law issues you’d like to discuss.

Giving back to you is my way of thanking you for investing in yourself.

No lip … take the trip, and you’ll see WHAT IS HIP.

. . . and that’s WHY THE FORDYCE FORUM!

Dear Barb:

I’ve heard you say, “When in doubt send them out! Too often we screen out candidates our clients would hire.” Do you have any empirical evidence or data to support your assertion?

Alan T., Sarasota, FL

Dear Alan:

Every time an experienced recruiter has left my firm over the past 33 years, we have generated a higher level of revenue from their clients. The main reason: They “knew” what their clients would hire. I believe we never know what our clients will do. They surprise us on a regular basis. If our candidates meet the minimum requirements of the job specs we have been given by our clients, we need to submit that candidate and allow our clients to make their own decisions on whom they hire. We have placed hundreds of candidates we didn’t necessarily like, but our clients loved them.

This is what I’m referring to when I say, “When in doubt – send them out.” I’m not talking about sending unqualified candidates, but I am trying to teach recruiters not to think that they can read the minds of their clients.

Barbara J. Bruno, CPC, CTS

Would you like to Ask Barb a question? Email her at support@staffingandrecruiting.com. Each month in The Fordyce Letter print edition, Barbara Bruno answers questions from individuals in the Recruiting Profession. We will bring you some of these Q&A responses from Barb each week on FordyceLetter.com.

“Unemployment is expected to remain above 8 percent for the next four years.” That gloomy assessment of the U.S. economy from FedEx Chief Economist Gene Huang is echoed in any number of reports and economic predictions.

“Most predictions,” says an economic analysis by the Society for Human Resource Management, “are less optimistic now than they were when 2011 began.”

What especially worries economists is whether the slow job growth is due to employer cautiousness — in which case growth will accelerate when economic confidence returns — or whether it is structural, meaning some jobs have been permanently eliminated, much the way automation obsoleted elevator operators.

“It is a fair bet that aggregate demand remains the main problem while pockets of skills mismatches persist, despite the high number of job seekers,” says the SHRM analysis.

The latest economist to weigh in is Gad Levanon, director of macroeconomic research for The Conference Board. Last week, he dissected recoveries of the past to examine the rate of job growth across multiple industries. What he found is that “the current employment recovery is the second slowest on record.”

His analysis led him to conclude that job growth this year is going to be a lot like last year.

Like Huang, the St. Louis Federal Reserve doesn’t see unemployment moving much below 7 percent before 2014 and even then, the Fed says it might even be up around 8 percent. That’s despite the Fed’s guess that real GDP is likely to be over 3 percent, possibly even up to around 4 percent.

Levanon’s analysis, though, offered some support for the SHRM view that it is weak demand that’s limiting job growth. One look at the chart and two things jump out. The first is how small the percentages are now compared to recoveries of the 60s, 70s, and 80s. The other is how robust the growth in temporary workers is.

The latter is a good sign. It suggests, at least, that the current pace of job growth is likely to continue. While a nearly 32 percent growth in temporary staffing since June 2009 would historically signal a spurt in full-time job growth, that may not be the case in this recovery. Instead, it may evidence that some structural changes are occurring in how employers manage their workforce.

This is not the same as automation eliminating jobs, but is a response to business cycles — as when retailers add staff in the fall for the holiday season — or project-based needs, or the natural ebb and flow. In other words, more employers may be including the use of temps as a strategic part of their workforce, and not merely as a precursor to fulltime hiring.

This so-called “secular growth” theory is certainly debatable. A Morgan Stanley research paper last spring challenged the notion that temporary and contract workers are becoming a strategic part of corporate employment in the U.S. and worldwide.

However, in a provocative and data-laden analysis of the staffing industry, BMO Capital Markets says “it may be different this time.” While the firm doubted the secular growth notion, now it’s not so sure. The research report issued earlier this month says:

However, by this point in the cycle, we should have seen a significant switch from “temp” to “perm,” but we have not; temp jobs represented nearly 15% of totals jobs added in the current recovery – by far the highest of the first 21 months in the past six post-recession periods – and given the current sluggish rebound, total employment may not return to its pre-recession peak for the first time ever.

There’s evidence now, says BMO, that the proponents of secular growth may be right “and the industry is seeing some secular growth as corporations use temporary staffing more strategically as part of their overall human resource policies.”