Screencasting was just not working today so very brief I’ll explain whats going on, nothing new or surprising still trading in this rather steep channel.

We are right near the top of it at the time of this writing 9:15 GMT, so I would consider selling. Keep in mind it is Friday, and this is often a correctional day that occurs during the US Session.

I’m not sure if the market will be able to break the bottom of the channel, which would be unfortunate, but I don’t think it will be moving much higher than 149 today, if it somehow manages to make it up there.

These are the market movers at work, you can call it manipulation (which to an extent, is exactly what it is) but very soon they are going to lose control of this bullish trend, its very steep, and it cannot keep rising at this pace, when the bottom of the channel breaks, it will break quickly. The market movers that are currently moving the market are very predictable, as soon as an hourly candle attempts to break the channel they rush in during the last 15 minutes to close the candle 50-100 pips higher. It’s been happening all week long. If you’ve been able to identify this yourself you have been observing price action.

You’ll also notice that each time the upper trendline is tested, its usually with an exponential curve, this is never a good sign when you are trying to break a rising resistance…especially when you move from the lower end of the channel to the top end in one move.

Sell the top of the channel, I am not buying the bottom anymore…its no longer safe in my opinion. This channel is a week old each time we test the bottom we will get closer to breaking it with the market supporting the downfall, so I am only looking for sells today near the top of the channel. Price is currently just above 148…excellent location to sell

Zack

Sorry for the delay. Pretty exciting morning, GBP/JPY has a clear channel that we’ve been trading in. The British Pound was reluctant to even let its foot off the gas even for a short period of time. We ended with two great trades at the top of a rising channel, the first was for a possible 50 pips immediately, and the second was shortly after same set up but could have yielded closer to 100 pips. Keep in mind that if you can consistently grab even 30-50 pips out of the market you are doing very well, rising channels or trendlines are one of my personal favorites.

Moving on though, I wanted to ask your opinion that maybe someone knows more about. I do hear mainstream news but I never look into that much if at all….fundamentally, correct me if I’m wrong, I’ve heard a lot of dismal things for the pound lately and yet the GBP/USD, GBP/JPY pairs remained in a bullish even in a bear trend. There was a comment the other day to a question I had mentioning that the bank of england was desperately trying to prop up the Pound to keep it from falling…this seemed logical to me as there were quite a few 5-20 minute ’surges’ in the market. I thought about this comment, and the fact that the British Pound seemed as if it were out of place, it was much more bullish than it should have been. Today is April 30, the last day of the month, and GBP/USD hit 1.4946…this was a great selling opportunity S/R wise just below the 1.5000 major resistance. I have no idea about this topic, was more/less a thought that popped into my head, but could this overextension in price have been simply so that banks or whoever could mark an end of the month daily high that supports an optimistic view? This would leave the month of May to begin on a bearish note and an entire month for them to instill a greater sense of confidence. What do you think?

Are you guys able to pinpoint profitable trades using the information I give in the Daily Analysis?

Let me know if there is anything you would like me to cover or see in a video.

Look out for the channel to break….it would be nice to see a solid close below the trendline, not a 50 pip fake out like we have been getting. The 4 hour candles should be backing us up today as we have a good reversal set up.

Original can be found here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dg2ufIZbyLo

Trade Smart and Safe!

Zack

I’m having a couple technical issues that will be repaired in the next couple of hours.

145.70/78 resistance was met much to my surprise and I am in a sell trade. If you are not in one at right now I would recommend it. I find it hard to believe that the market is going to not only break a month long resistance, but also the topside of a very steep rising channel after rocketing up 250 pips….anything can happen so be prepared.

I will NOT be bullish until a break of 146.20, this is the last low before we dropped to 141. Sells up until that point. Buys above.

Keep an eye on the lower support off the 1 hour chart, make sure you adjust the trendline for the multiple false breaks that occurred…this is a 2 day channel so far, it should be fairly easy to spot…start at 139.00 if you’re having trouble.

Daily Analysis should be up around 12 GMT.

Thanks for your patience,

Zack

Okay…the market has been relatively consistent but fairly annoying for those that are trying to get into this bearish breakout. There have been quite a few fakeouts but kept moving down…and even with that it was still rather resistant to continue the bear trend. Couple things happened today that absolutely deserve attention, as a foreword before I dive into this I am switching my bias to GBP/JPY to neutral, I feel that there are alot of opportunities to buy/sell in multiple locations which is not really characteristic of a trending market. I was a little pressed for time on the video with everything that needed to be said, so here’s a couple things I missed/reiterating.

Daily Candle close…a major bummer for the downtrend, it did have a logical bouncing level off the 138.99 that I did not see until after the fact, the bounce yesterday is the 4th touch of that trendline. We cannot ignore the previous Daily Channel, look for selling opportunities should we rise quickly.

4 hour downtrend was broken with today’s open…posting a higher high…which is unfortunate, but it was tradable. Look for the new daily trendline as well as the 4 hour previous trendline to act as a major area of support down to 139.00.

I am not looking for a trend continuation until 139.00 is broken to the downside or 145.50 to the upside. Intraday on the 1 hour chart showed strong resistance at 142.00, it was broken but the market seemed hesistant to move much higher. Keep an eye on the 1 hour trendline, its not in the video, but its on the bottom of this article. The market is forming a lot of S/R levels within the 139-145 range…I will be looking for the range to hold intact with a small bias to the downside as long as the previous daily channel serves as a resistance, this will be heavily confirmed with a second break at 139.00, and posting a lower low.

Keep in mind with the Daily Charts what is really important is the close….so intraday we may see a break of 143.50 but a bounce off of 145…to close at 142.50 kind of thing. Pay attention to your charts and trade them, even though we posted a higher high today price action is still very choppy…wait for the market and buy low and sell high, don’t get into a trade in the middle just because. Here’s the 1 hour chart which will make more sense after watching the video it would have been what I ended with:

Original can be found here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FsFRUbFR0Qs

Trade Smart and Safe!

Zack

First, would like to thank all of you for responding to my little fundamental inquiry.

Not a whole lot of new things going on chart wise, we have a fresh daily low as well as a lower high…repeat of yesterday’s analysis with a continuation of the bear trend. If not in sell positions already consider selling off the trendline that has been forming the lower highs.

There’s not a whole lot of places where I see the market to retest and continuing moving lower because of all the choppy price action last week.

Be on the lookout for reversal set ups near major support levels. If you are a short term trader consider taking advantage of pullbacks of the trend, but always mind the trend, don’t fight a daily trend with a 15 minute chart, you will lose.

Original can be found here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3VuPGbYecZ8

Trade Smart and Safe!

Zack

It’s a brand new week, and with it we finally have a new low on the daily chart, hopefully this will be the last straw for the market as we prepare to accelerate this very lagging bear trend. Couple things that are noted here are the gap at the start of the week has yet to be filled…because of the daily consolidation this could be a breakaway gap, one of three types of gaps, characterized by breaking out of a pattern. The daily consolidation looks very much like a pennant/flag.

Market sentiment, lower highs, lower lows, Daily closes above the trendline (ugh, I know), finally we opened below the trendline. Only thing would be look out for the daily candle’s close today…16 hours from the time of this message..I’m hoping there won’t be any issues.

On a side note I wanted to make some comments, maybe someone could inform me better. Since news or paying attention to the news is never my number one concern I don’t know a whole lot about what is going on fundamentally, I am a technical trader. I wanted to share my thoughts about what I’m seeing and what I think is going on outside the technical world. Last week, it looked as if the market was anticipating some very bad news, not sure what, but it wasn’t enough to break the optimism of a market recovery and break a bullish channel. Whatever it is was weighing down on the market left and right, we saw quick rises and quick falls, slowly but surely we inched lower and lower. Last Friday I thought for sure we would be moving down, since daily open there was just massive bearish pressure, and I know Fetor went short during the chatroom…what happened Friday. It almost seemed as if someone was trying to elevate the british pound to a level where it wouldn’t be at risk of falling….we had about 1-2 hours, with the majority of it being in 20 minutes a 150 pip rise. Let’s just say that thats pretty steep and far fetched…and now we are back much lower.

So my big question to you guys is….Is there any major news coming out this week, thats not scheduled, not like an interest rate kinda thing….I’m talking more along the lines of…are the auto industries scheduled to bankrupt? Or something out of the UK?

Thanks, for those that know more about it than I, its appreciated.

Original can be found here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JmhilJmPko0

Trade Smart and Safe!

Zack

The much awaited GBP/JPY analysis, its fairly uneventful not a lot has changed between yesterday and today. 4 hour chart posted a lower high, so if we can break the 140.57 level and make a new swing low/daily low, I don’t think there will be anything that can stop this from moving down from a basic bear trend and market sentiment perspective. It has thrown curve balls this week so we’ll just have to wait and see.

In a straightforward perspective, 145 support broke this week, and we retested it twice bouncing off of it once, then again at a lower high. So from just this simple perspective we are still in a bear trend, just a very choppy and rather annoying one. Great for the short term range trader though.

Original can be found here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ObZ3MSC8Vsw

Trade Safe and Smart!

Zack

My apologies for the delayed post, my fault, lost track of time. GBP/JPY downtrend continues…however it is very choppy, the market is truly throwing some head fakes. We were able to set a new low at 140.57 and temporarily break the daily channel. This is pretty huge in my book, CCI on the Daily chart is still very much in a bearish trend as there is quite some distance between the trendline and the current CCI value. I will be looking for shorts on a break of 140.57.

Bulls took the upper hand in the late Tokyo/early London/Europe sessions, however the bullish rally is still well within the confines of the bearish trend. Need a break above 143.50 first for a retest of 145/145.70 area, need a break above this level to truly give the bulls a chance. Otherwise it looks like we are going to experience some choppy maneuvering until a reversal is made, or the trend breaks lower.

Short term traders - 141.40 entry should have given you +50 pips

I am looking for the break of the Daily Channel move, so I am still holding on to my newest trade at 141.40. As always keep an eye on S/R and Candles that form throughout the day.

Original can be found at: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DjHQtQ_rgNA

Trade Safe and Smart!

Zack

Here’s the Eur/Usd Analysis, not a whole lot going on, obviously a bear trend but the Euro is a little resistant to move lower, its holding out. Possible double bottom near the 1.2885 level keep an eye on this for possible entries short. Otherwise sell high near 1.3000 break above here next selling location below 1.3100.

Be sure to check out other Daily Vids for April 22, 2009 - GBP/JPY AUD/JPY

Original can be found here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zR1GtKOBRBQ

Trade Smart and Safe

Zack

AUD/JPY is very similar looking to GBP/JPY which makes sense because it IS a yen cross (XXX/JPY). Looking for shorting opportunities below 68.00 with a sell stop order about 67.95 to give a 5 pip buffer. Price looks as if it is consolidating between two important trendlines the upper limit is a newly formed mirror resistance, my bias indicates trend continuation from initial breakout towards sells.

Be sure to check out my other Daily Vids for April 22, 2009 - GBP/JPY EUR/USD

Original can be found here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VJYVu-csV0k

Trade Smart and Safe!

Zack