If sellers can force a break below the swing area, the next target comes in at the 2026 low from March 16 at 1.14102. A move beneath that level would put the focus on the natural support at 1.1400. Breaking below both levels would leave the EURUSD trading at its lowest level since June 2025.

That said, when price tests an important support zone, buyers often look to lean against the area with risk defined by a stop below support. For now, however, sellers remain in control after successfully pushing the pair into this swing area on two separate occasions today.

On the topside, resistance does not become significant until the 1.1500 level. Until buyers can reclaim that area, the near-term bias remains tilted to the downside.

The rally is increasingly taking on the characteristics of a short squeeze. Recall that in late April and early May, intervention fears sparked a sharp decline from 160.717 to a low near 155.017, as traders worried Japanese officials would step in aggressively to support the yen. Since then, the pair has steadily recovered, but traders remained cautious about pushing above the 2026 highs given the lingering threat of intervention.

That caution disappeared today.

The break to new highs has accelerated the upside momentum as short positions are being forced to reassess the long-held belief that Japanese authorities would not tolerate USDJPY trading above 160.00 for an extended period. While the risk of intervention remains and officials could still attempt to push the pair lower, the market is now nearly 200 pips above 160.00. At some point, traders fighting the trend have to decide whether it is worth staying in the trade and not screaming "Uncle". "Basta", "Enough", "Get me OUT".

For many shorts, that moment may be arriving quickly. The market is forcing them to ask a simple question: How much longer do you want to fight a trend that keeps making new highs?

While Bitcoin often benefits from a risk-on backdrop, recent price action has failed to confirm the improved sentiment. Despite the apparent end of the conflict and a rally in equities, Bitcoin's rebound from the June 5 low at $59,104 stalled at $67,150, falling short of the 38.2% retracement level at $68,168 of the decline from the May 6 high. That retracement represented the minimum hurdle buyers needed to clear to begin shifting control away from sellers.

Instead, the rally fizzled and the technical picture deteriorated. The price broke back below the 100-hour moving average at $65,322, then the 200-hour moving average at $64,116, and finally below a key trendline currently near $63,758. The trendline break accelerated downside momentum as buyers turned into sellers (see chart above and the video).

Bitcoin has since fallen to $62,236, putting the focus back on the June lows. As long as the price remains below the broken trendline and the 200-hour moving average, the near-term bias favors the sellers. A move back above the 200-hour moving average would ease the bearish pressure and shift the outlook toward neutral.

On the downside, the key level to watch remains the June 5 low at $59,104. A break below that level would strengthen the sellers' grip and increase the risk of a deeper decline. For now, the word isT-R-O-U-B-L-E for buyers.

The decline extended to 0.6994, briefly breaking below the psychologically important 0.7000 level and the 61.8% retracement at 0.7002 of the rally from the late-March low. The low price yesterday reached 0.6994 before bouncing back above the 0.7000 level. That level has since emerged as an important support zone.

In trading today, the pair rebounded during the Asian session and pushed back toward the falling 200-hour moving average at 0.7042, reaching a high of 0.7041 before sellers stepped in and defended the level. On the downside, the price dipped to 0.70015, just below the 61.8% retracement at 0.70025, but buyers again helped stabilize the market near the 0.7000 support area.

As a result, the AUDUSD is now trapped between well-defined support and resistance, setting up a key short-term battle. For sellers to strengthen their grip, they need to break and stay below 0.7000. A move lower would target last week's low at 0.6978, followed by a broader support zone between 0.6938 and 0.6962 that dates back to March.

For buyers to regain control, they need to reclaim the 200-hour moving average at 0.7042 and then the 100-hour moving average at 0.7055. The 50% midpoint of the rally from the March low also resides near that area, adding to its importance. Beyond that, the 100-day moving average at 0.7083 becomes the next upside objective.

For now, the battle lines are clearly drawn, with the market fluctuating between support near 0.7000 and resistance near the 200-hour moving average, awaiting the next catalyst to break the stalemate.

As the trend has strengthened, the price has moved further away from its key support levels. The 100-hour moving average currently sits at 1.4013, while the 200-hour moving average is at 1.3983. As long as the price remains above these rising averages, buyers remain firmly in control. For sellers to gain a more meaningful foothold, the pair would need to break back below those technical levels.

Trending markets often move farther and last longer than traders anticipate, and USDCAD has been a textbook example of that behavior since the May low. However, the latest push higher has now reached an important resistance zone between 1.4130 and 1.4144, an area defined by swing highs dating back to November 2025. Today's high reached 1.4134 before stalling and backing off, with the pair currently trading near 1.4117.

For risk-focused traders, this creates an interesting setup. The trend remains bullish, but the market is also testing a key resistance area after an extended advance. Traders looking to fade an overextended move should only do so where risk can be clearly defined and limited. The 1.4130–1.4144 resistance zone offers that opportunity. If the price breaks above the area, the trade idea is wrong, and traders should exit—and potentially even consider reversing into the prevailing uptrend. If the resistance holds, however, the pair has room for a deeper corrective pullback given its stretched conditions.

In the video above, I outline the technical levels driving the current move higher and discuss what would need to happen on any downside correction for sellers to begin regaining control and confidence.

The day after.

The first meeting of the Kevin Warsh Chair era is over and change is afoot, but the tilt was to more bearish.

Key Takeaways

• Fed holds rates unchanged, but new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh used the meeting to signal a broader overhaul of how the Federal Reserve operates.
• There will be five new task forces will be created to review major areas of Fed policy and operations, including:
  • Communications strategy
  • Inflation analysis
  • Employment measures
  • Data sources
  • Broader policy processes
• The FOMC statement was dramatically shortened, shrinking to just 132 words, more than 300 words shorter than the previous statement. The streamlined approach helped produce a unanimous decision from a committee that had been showing internal divisions earlier in the year.
• The statement notably emphasized the Fed's commitment to "deliver price stability" and removed any reference to maximizing employment, signaling a stronger focus on inflation control.
• Markets interpreted the changes and in particular the changes to the dot plot as more hawkish than expected:
  • The updated dot plot showed nine Fed officials expecting at least one rate hike in 2026, compared with none in the March projections.
  • Expectations for near-term rate cuts faded.
• Despite speculation that Warsh might pursue lower rates after being appointed by President Trump, the meeting suggested the opposite: the Fed appears willing to tighten policy further if inflation remains stubborn.
• According to Capital Economics, the meeting leaves the door open for a potential rate hike as soon as September.

Bottom Line

The first Warsh-led meeting marked a significant shift in tone. The Fed simplified its communications, placed greater emphasis on fighting inflation, deemphasized employment concerns, and produced a dot plot that leaned noticeably more hawkish. Markets came away viewing the Fed as more likely to raise rates than cut them in the months ahead.

In other central bank news:

The Swiss National Bank left its policy rate unchanged at 0.00%, a decision that was widely expected by markets. While the SNB nudged its inflation forecasts slightly higher—seeing inflation at 0.6% in both 2026 and 2027 and 0.7% in 2028—officials emphasized that medium-term inflation pressures are "virtually unchanged" and remain consistent with price stability. Growth forecasts were left unchanged at 1.0% for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027, signaling confidence in the domestic outlook. A key takeaway was the SNB's stronger commitment to intervene in foreign exchange markets if needed, reflecting concerns that a stronger Swiss franc could further dampen inflation. Overall, the decision was viewed as mildly dovish: the SNB sees inflation contained, remains comfortable with rates at zero, and is relying more on potential FX intervention than interest-rate hikes to manage economic risks amid ongoing uncertainty tied to the fragile situation in the Middle East. The USDCHF is trading at new highs for the year (lower CHF) on the intervention threats and the overall USD bullishness.

The Bank of England left its Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75%, as widely expected, with the vote split 7-2. While most policymakers felt inflation was continuing to ease and that existing restrictive policy was working its way through the economy, two members—Megan Greene and Chief economist Huw Pill—voted for a 25-basis-point rate hike due to concerns that higher energy prices could lead to stronger second-round inflation effects. The BoE lowered its inflation outlook for this year, noted that the labor market continues to soften, and said signs of weaker economic growth could help contain price pressures. However, officials emphasized that energy-price uncertainty remains a key risk and reiterated their readiness to act as needed to return inflation to the 2% target. Overall, the decision was largely a repeat of April's message, with markets maintaining expectations for roughly 35 basis points of tightening by year-end, including a better-than-even chance of a rate hike in September. The GBPUSD is trading to new lows (see video above).

US yields are higher in the short end and lower in the longer end:

• 2 year yield 4.20%, +3.7 basis points
• 10 year yield 4.453%, -9.7 basis points
• 30 year yield 41869%, -520 basis points

The US stocks are trading higher with the chips and the Nasdaq leading the way to the upside

• Dow industrial average was 165 points
• S&P index +53 points
• NASDAQ index +419 points
• Crude oil is trading down 2.29% or $1.76 at $75.00

The result was a sharp move higher in Treasury yields and a stronger U.S. dollar. Stocks reacted as anticipated, moving lower, although the declines remained relatively orderly rather than turning into a broad-based selloff.

At the close:

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: -0.97%
• S&P 500: -1.21%
• Nasdaq Composite: -1.34%
• Russell 2000: -0.72%

From a technical perspective, the decline pushed the major indices below both their 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages, tilting the near-term bias back in favor of the sellers.

For the S&P 500, the 100-hour moving average is at 7488.34 and the 200-hour moving average is at 7462.77. The index closed at 7420.11, below both key levels.

For the Nasdaq, the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages are converged near 26,335, while the index settled at 26,021.66, leaving it comfortably below both trend gauges.

Going forward, buyers will need to push the indices back above their respective 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages to regain near-term control. Until that happens, the technical advantage remains with the sellers.

Honestly, the stock market could have reacted much more negatively to the Fed's hawkish shift. The relatively measured decline suggests investors may be looking beyond today's tougher rhetoric and focusing on factors that could ultimately help the inflation outlook.

One possibility is the sharp decline in oil prices, which reduces input costs across a wide range of industries and eases pressure on consumers. Another is the growing belief that a more hawkish Fed stance could discourage companies from continuing to push through price increases. Businesses often have an easier time raising prices when costs are rising and inflation expectations are elevated. However, if energy prices stabilize or move lower and inflation pressures begin to ease, that pricing power becomes more difficult to justify.

Airfares will be one area to watch. Lower fuel costs typically work their way into airline economics, and if ticket prices fail to respond, expect increased scrutiny from both consumers and policymakers. With energy costs declining, the market may be betting that some of the inflation tailwinds that have supported higher prices across the economy begin to fade in the months ahead.

For now, investors appear willing to give that possibility the benefit of the doubt, which may help explain why stocks sold off, but not aggressively, despite the Fed's more hawkish message. Now it may continue but for today, yes indices fell and the bullishness from lower oil prices is gone. However, it could have been worse.

Warsh came in and the tone of the Fed shifted with officials changed their favorite bird from a dove to a hawk.

For the USDJPY the price is moving further away from the 160.00 level - a level that attracted the Bank of Japan and Japanese officials in the past. However, the market is having it hard to ignore the 2 year yield moving up 17 basis points to 4.22%. The September futures has a 65% chance of a hike now up from 32% before the decision.

Looking at the daily chart, more momentum would have traders looking toward 2024 highs at 161.92 - if Japan will allow it.

Support/close risk for traders is 160.44 and below that the 100/200 hour MAs near 160.25. If the price cannot get and stay below those MA, the sellers are not winning.

Technically speaking, the rise in the USD is seeing some bounce back from the initial run but the bias from all turned more dollar bullish. .

EURUSD.

The EURUSD has moved below both its 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages, shifting the near-term technical bias in favor of the sellers. The 200-hour moving average at 1.15657 now serves as a key close-risk resistance level for bearish traders.

The pair fell to a low of 1.1536 but was unable to extend the decline toward the next important support zone between 1.14989 and 1.1506. That failure to reach the lower target area has encouraged a modest rebound, with the price currently trading near 1.1556.

On the topside, the first hurdle comes at the 200-hour moving average (1.15657), followed by the 100-hour moving average at 1.15906. Buyers would need to reclaim and hold above both levels to shift the technical bias back in their favor. Until then, rallies are likely to be viewed as corrective, with sellers maintaining the near-term advantage.

GBPUSD

The GBPUSD broke below its 200-hour moving average at 1.33902, accelerating to a session low of 1.3336. The decline also pushed the pair beneath a key swing area between 1.3365 and 1.33739, increasing the bearish bias in the process.

Despite the downside momentum, sellers were unable to reach the next important targets, including last Thursday’s swing low at 1.3323 and the May/June double-bottom support at 1.33045. The inability to test those levels has helped spark a modest recovery.

For sellers, the first close-risk area now comes in between 1.33658 and 1.33739, where the prior swing zone could act as resistance. More conservative traders will look to the 200-hour moving average at 1.33902 as the key line in the sand. As long as the price remains below that level, sellers retain the near-term technical advantage.

USDCAD:

The USDCAD has been one of the strongest-trending major currency pairs since early May, and that bullish momentum remained firmly intact today as the pair climbed to a new 2026 high of 1.4071. The move also pushed the pair to its highest level since November 2025, underscoring the strength of the current uptrend.

With buyers remaining in control, attention now turns to the next upside target at 1.40825, a key swing level from late 2025. A break above that resistance would open the door for a test of the 50% retracement of the decline from the January 2025 high to the January 2026 low, which comes in at 1.41384.

As long as the price continues to hold above its recent breakout levels, the path of least resistance remains to the upside, with buyers maintaining a firm technical advantage.

At the highs on Monday, the pair briefly pushed above its 100-day moving average, but each breakout attempt quickly failed as sellers stepped in and overwhelmed buying interest. On Tuesday, the price rotated lower but found support from buyers near the rising 100-hour moving average, helping to stabilize the decline. The subsequent rebound stalled ahead of the 100-day moving average, suggesting buyers had learned from Monday’s failed breakout attempts and were less willing to chase the move higher.

That pattern repeated itself today. During the early European session, AUDUSD moved lower once again, only to find willing buyers against the rising 100-hour moving average. As a result, the pair remains trapped between a well-defined support zone below and key resistance above.

On the downside, support is clustered between the 100-hour moving average at 0.70559, the 50% midpoint at 0.70549, and the 200-hour moving average at 0.70470. As long as the price remains above this support band, buyers retain the near-term technical advantage. It would take a break below 0.70559, 0.70549, and 0.70470 to shift control more firmly back to the sellers.

On the topside, today's rebound has carried the pair back toward the 100-day moving average at 0.70836. However, the session high of 0.7073 remains about 10 pips shy of that key resistance level. For buyers to gain greater control, they need to break above and stay above 0.70836. A successful breakout would then target the next resistance zone between 0.7100 and 0.7113.

For now, traders continue to focus on these nearby technical levels. The market has spent the week oscillating within a relatively tight range, but ranges rarely last forever. At some point, a breakout is likely to emerge, and when it does, traders will be looking for momentum to carry the pair in the direction of that break. Until then, patience and respect for the established boundaries remain the name of the gam

A subsequent rebound lifted the pair back above the 0.7920–0.7926 swing zone and briefly toward unchanged levels on the day. However, renewed selling pressure has since pushed the price back into that range, keeping the market at an important technical crossroads.

For short-term traders, the 0.7920–0.7926 area now serves as a key barometer. Holding above the zone would give buyers more control and shift the focus toward the 100-hour moving average at 0.7946 and the 200-hour moving average at 0.7958. Conversely, a sustained move back below the range would strengthen the bearish case and put the spotlight once again on the 200-day moving average at 0.79044, followed by the 50% midpoint at 0.79014. Those remain the next major downside targets if sellers regain more momentum.

Today, the pair has continued to grind higher, maintaining a comfortable distance above the rising 100-hour moving average at 1.3986 (the current price is at 1.4008), a sign that buyers remain in control of the near-term trend. However, the rally has yet to challenge last week's high at 1.40232, which remains the key upside target. A break above that level would strengthen the bullish bias and open the door for further gains with upside targets at 1.4082 and then the 50% midpoint of the move down from the 2025 at 1.4134.

On the downside, sellers have more work to do. It would first take a move below the 100-hour moving average at 1.3986, followed by a break of the rising 200-hour moving average at 1.3962 and the key swing area between 1.3948 and 1.3966, to shift the technical outlook back in their favor.

Until those support levels are broken, the path of least resistance remains to the upside, with buyers maintaining control of the broader rally that has carried the pair from the May 1 low near 1.3549 to last week's high at 1.40232.

Key Expectations

• Fed expected to leave rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% in a unanimous decision.
• The statement is expected to remove the easing bias, signaling that rate cuts are no longer the base case.
• Economic projections are likely to show higher inflation, slightly lower growth, and steady-to-lower unemployment.

Dot Plot in Focus

• The market's main focus will be the dot plot.
• Expectations are for no rate cuts in 2026 or 2027, with a more hawkish distribution of forecasts.
• Any indication of a future rate cut would be viewed as dovish, while projections showing hikes would be hawkish.

Warsh's First Meeting as Chair

• Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is expected to provide fewer policy clues given his criticism of forward guidance.
• He may note that falling oil prices following the U.S.-Iran diplomatic breakthrough could help offset recent inflation concerns.

Bottom Line

The expected message is that the Fed remains on hold, inflation risks remain elevated, and policymakers are becoming less inclined to signal future rate cuts. The statement changes and dot plot are likely to matter more than Warsh's comments.

The USD is mostly higher

Before the break decision, US retail sales for May are expected to rise by 0.5%. The ex Auto is expected also at 0.5% (verse 0.7% last week). The retail control is expected to increase by 0.4% versus 0.5% last week.

The USD is mostly higher, but the USD is lower vs the JPY (-0.10%) and unchanged vs the CHF. The NZD is the weeakest with a decline of -0.38%. IN the video above I take a look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD from at technical perspective.

US stocks are mixed. Yields are higher.

Looking at the major US indices, they are mixed (Dow lower while S&P and Nasdaq are modestly higher) in premarket trading:

• Dow industrial average -35.67 points
• S&P index up 2.90 points
• NASDAQ index +112 points

Looking at the US that market:

• 2 year yield 4.062%, +1.5 basis points
• five year yield 4.172%, +2.1 basis points
• 10 year yield 4.443%, +1.5 basis points
• 30 year yield 4.938%, +0.9 basis points

In other markets:

• Crude oil is trading is trading above moved below unchanged at $76.04
• Gold is trading down five dollars or -0.12% at $4326
• Silver is down $0.16 or -0.22% at $69.78
• Bitcoin is trading down -$785..00 or -1.2% at $64,810

The latest dip has taken the index to within striking distance of its 100-hour moving average at 26,380.94. Just below that sits the 200-hour moving average at 26,298.71, creating an important support area for buyers. If the bullish bias is to remain intact, traders will want to see the Nasdaq hold above this moving-average cluster. A break below would weaken the near-term technical picture and could give sellers more control heading into the close and into tomorrow's trade.

Today, the QQQ index is getting hammered with the index currently down -1.50% leading to the declines in the Nasdaq. The top 10 holdings in the QQQ are:

1. NVIDIA Corporation – 8.10%
2. Apple Inc. – 7.10%
3. Microsoft Corporation – 4.90%
4. Micron Technology, Inc. – 4.90%
5. Amazon.com, Inc. – 4.30%
6. Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. – 3.60%
7. Alphabet Inc. Class A – 3.40%
8. Tesla, Inc. – 3.20%
9. Alphabet Inc. Class C – 3.10%
10. Broadcom Inc. – 2.90%

The top 10 holdings account for approximately 45.5% of the total QQQ ETF.

Looking at the how those 10 are doing today:

• NVIDIA (NVDA): -1.66%
• Apple (AAPL): +0.63%
• Microsoft (MSFT): -1.65%
• Micron Technology (MU): -4.42%
• Amazon (AMZN): +0.07%
• Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): -5.53%
• Alphabet Class A (GOOGL): +0.84%
• Alphabet Class C (GOOG): +0.89%
• Tesla (TSLA): -1.03%
• Broadcom (AVGO): -3.62%

Summary: Among the top 10 QQQ holdings, AMD (-5.53%), Micron (-4.42%), and Broadcom (-3.62%) are the biggest drags, while Alphabet (+0.84% and +0.89%) and Apple (+0.63%) are among the leading gainers. Microsoft and NVIDIA are both lower by roughly 1.65%–1.66%.

The NASDAQ index is already bouncing and currently trades at 26478.04. That is still down -207 points or -0.78% in the day. What will the next 30 minutes do for the index?

On the top side, the close risk includes the swing area between $77.10 and $78.97. Just above that is a 61.8% retracement of the move up from the end of December low to the high price reached in March. That level comes in at $79.62. Stay below that area is the best case scenario for the sellers looking for more downside.

If the 200 day moving average below is broken at $73.48, traders will be looking toward the February 27 closing level of $67.04. The Iran/US war started on February 28.

• Crude oil is trading down around five dollars and $75.82, and getting closer to its next key target at the rising 200 day moving average at $73.47
• The 10 year yield is now down -4.4 basis points at 4.423%

Looking at some of the major currency pairs:

EURUSD:

The EURUSD is pushing to a fresh session high at 1.1619, bringing the pair back up to test yesterday’s peak. The next key upside target comes in at the 50% midpoint of the trading range since mid-March at 1.16287. A sustained move above that level would strengthen the bullish case and shift the focus toward the June 4 and June 5 highs near 1.1644.

If buyers can clear that resistance area, attention would then turn to a more significant swing zone between 1.1655 and 1.1667, an area that has acted as an important technical battleground in recent months. Beyond that, the pair faces another key hurdle with both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages converging near 1.1676. That confluence creates a notable resistance target and a level that could attract increased profit-taking or fresh selling interest on the first test.

For now, the path of least resistance remains higher, with buyers maintaining control as long as the pair continues to press against and ultimately break through the resistance levels overhead

GBPUSD:

The GBPUSD is also extending to fresh session highs, reaching 1.3443 and continuing its recovery from last week's lows. The next key resistance zone comes in between 1.3446 and 1.3465, a range that includes the 100-day moving average at 1.34629.

That moving average represents an important technical hurdle. On May 29, June 2, and June 5, buyers managed to push above the 100-day moving average, but each breakout attempt quickly failed, with the pair closing back below the level. In fact, the GBPUSD has not recorded a daily close above its 100-day moving average since May 25, underscoring its significance as a barometer for the longer-term bias.

On the supportive side, today's rally has carried the pair above its 200-day moving average at 1.34163. The price is now moving further away from that level, making it an important near-term risk-defining support level. As long as the pair remains above the 200-day moving average, buyers retain the upper hand and can continue to target the 100-day moving average and the resistance zone above. A break and close above that area would represent an important technical victory for the bulls and open the door for a broader upside extension.

...more

Despite today's modest decline, the index remains comfortably above its key support levels, leaving little reason for buyers to be concerned. Since Thursday's low, the NASDAQ has rallied nearly 6.7% in just three trading days, making some profit-taking and consolidation a natural development. As long as the moving averages continue to hold as support, the upside remains favored.

On the topside, the next key target comes in at 26,826.97. A break above that level would increase bullish momentum and open the door for a test of the all-time high at 27,190.21.

From a technical perspective, the bearish case has strengthened. The price has broken below a key swing area between $77.44 and $78.97 and is also trading beneath the 61.8% retracement level at $79.62 of the rally from the December 2025 low to the March high. That zone, up to $79.62, now serves as the first important resistance area and a close risk level for sellers. As long as the price remains below that level, the downside bias remains firmly in place.

For traders looking for a more conservative risk parameter, the next major resistance zone comes in between $85.45 and $86.89. That area includes a key swing zone as well as the 100-day moving average at $86.89. A move back above that cluster would force a reassessment of the bearish outlook, but for now the sellers remain firmly in control.

If downside momentum persists, attention will increasingly shift toward the 200-day moving average at $73.48. Crude oil has traded above that moving average since mid-February, making it a critical longer-term support level. A break and sustained move below it would increase the bearish bias further and could open the door toward the February 27 closing level of $67.04, which was the last trading day before the war began.

At the gasoline pump, prices have been slower to respond. According to AAA, the national average price for regular gasoline remains above $4.00 per gallon at $4.04. However, that is well below the May peak of $4.56 per gallon reached as crude oil surged during the conflict.

For comparison:

• February 27, 2026 (pre-war): $2.98 per gallon
• January 20, 2025 (end of the Biden administration): $3.12 per gallon
• May 2026 peak: $4.56 per gallon
• Current AAA national average: $4.04 per gallon

While the recent decline in crude oil prices should continue to ease pressure at the pump, gasoline prices would still need to fall by roughly $1.00 per gallon to return to the levels seen before the conflict and around the end of the Biden administration. That leaves room for President Trump to point to lower energy costs if the decline in crude oil prices continues and those savings are ultimately passed on to consumers

From a technical perspective, however, the AUDUSD remains trapped within a well-defined cluster of key levels. The pair is currently trading near 0.7074. On the topside, the 100-day moving average at 0.70834 continues to cap gains and remains the key hurdle that must be broken to increase the bullish bias. On the downside, the 100-hour moving average comes in at 0.70417. Today's low reached 0.7043, just above that support level, allowing buyers to maintain a foothold.

Separating those two boundary levels is a centerline defined by both the 200-hour moving average and the 50% retracement of the rally from the late-March low to the May high, which converge near 0.7055. That area has become the battleground between buyers and sellers.

As a result, traders remain caught between the 100-day moving average resistance above and the 100-hour moving average support below, with the 200-hour moving average/50% retracement area serving as the midpoint. A sustained break above the 100-day moving average would tilt the bias more firmly in favor of the buyers, while a move below the 100-hour moving average would hand greater control to the sellers. Until one of those levels gives way, the pair remains locked in a tug-of-war with neither side able to seize a decisive advantage.

Together, these levels form an important support zone. A move below that cluster would increase the bearish bias and hand more control back to sellers. Until then, the broader uptrend remains intact and buyers continue to hold the advantage.

On the topside, resistance remains at last week's high of 1.40332. A break above that level would strengthen the bullish case and open the door toward the October 15, 2025 high near 1.4082, followed by the November 2025 high and the 50% retracement level at 1.41384. That 50% midpoint is likely to represent a significant hurdle on any initial test.

From a fundamental perspective, as the Iran-U.S.-Israel conflict appears to be moving toward a peace agreement, investor attention may soon shift back to trade policy. That could put the spotlight squarely on U.S.-Canada relations and the upcoming review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Markets remain concerned that trade tensions could reemerge if negotiations become contentious.

Currently, several tariffs remain in place on Canadian exports, including duties on steel, aluminum, automobiles, lumber, and certain wood products. Canada has maintained retaliatory tariffs on U.S. vehicles as well as roughly C$15.6 billion worth of U.S. steel and aluminum imports. Looking ahead, the formal USMCA review scheduled for July 2026 is widely viewed as the next major potential flashpoint in the relationship. The prospect of difficult negotiations and possible changes to the agreement has helped keep pressure on the Canadian dollar and has provided an additional tailwind for USDCAD.

• EURUSD: 38 pips
• USDJPY: 30 pips
• GBPUSD: 40 pips
• USDCHF: 18 pips
• USDCAD: 33 pips
• AUDUSD: 35 pips
• NZDUSD: 40 pips

Looking at the 3 major currency pairs - the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD - the prices are all within 0.04% of unchanged on day with modest trading ranges of less than 40 pips in each.

Overnight, the Bank of Japan delivered another rate increase:

• BOJ raised rates 25 basis points to 1.00%
• Highest policy rate in more than 30 years

The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.0%, the highest level since 1995, while signaling that additional rate hikes remain possible as inflation pressures build. The BOJ said Japan's economy is evolving largely as expected, with the risk of a significant slowdown diminishing and inflation projected to run clearly above its 2% target. Policymakers highlighted the faster-than-expected pass-through of higher oil prices into consumer prices and warned of upside inflation risks. At the same time, the BOJ announced it will pause its bond purchase tapering program from April 2027, fixing monthly JGB purchases at around ¥2 trillion. While the move to higher rates is clearly hawkish, the decision to halt further tapering may help limit upward pressure on long-term yields. Overall, the message was that policy is still moving toward further tightening

Despite the rise, the pair remains above the 160.00 level

The Reserve Bank of Australia also six latest interest-rate decision, decided to leave left its cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, as expected, with a unanimous decision. The RBA stressed that both headline and underlying inflation remain too high, while uncertainty around the economic outlook remains elevated, particularly due to ongoing Middle East tensions and their impact on global energy prices.

The central bank warned that higher oil prices could keep inflation elevated for longer and said it remains focused on preventing those pressures from becoming embedded in the economy. While the statement retained a hawkish tone, some of the stronger inflation language from May was softened, suggesting the RBA is unlikely to raise rates again anytime soon but is also not close to considering rate cuts. The Australian dollar showed little reaction, with AUDUSD holding near 0.7050 after the decision.

The FOMC rate decision will be announced tomorrow at 2 PM. The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged at Kevin Warsh's first meeting as the head of the central bank. What will be said and released is another story. One of the themes is that he will want Fed officials to be more quiet. Warsh comes in with a dovish bias toward rates. However, he has advocated for gradually reducing the Federal Reserve's massive balance sheet (which is hawkish), reexamining the central bank's approach to inflation, and reshaping how monetary policy is communicated and implemented.

On inflation, Warsh likes the Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate as an inflation measure. It was developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and attempts to identify the underlying trend in inflation by removing the most extreme price increases and decreases each month before calculating the average.

How it works

Instead of looking at all prices equally, as the standard PCE inflation measure does, the Dallas Fed:

• Ranks all PCE price changes from lowest to highest
• Trims away the most extreme price declines and increases
• Calculates inflation using the middle portion of the distribution

For example, if gasoline prices jump 25% in a month or airline fares fall 15%, those extreme moves may be excluded from the calculation.

The goal is to answer:

"What is inflation doing beneath the noise?"

Will Warsh speak to that measure in his commentary? The current trimmed mean rate is 2.3%. The Core PCE is at 3.3%.

In the Middle East, President Trump stated that the Strait of Hormuz should be fully reopened by Friday, coinciding with a planned signing ceremony in Switzerland between U.S. and Iranian officials. However, reports suggest that restoring normal shipping operations could take longer, with some estimates pointing to as much as two weeks before full capacity returns.

Key elements reportedly included in the framework agreement:

• Extension of the current ceasefire by 60 days
• Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
• Removal of the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports
• Gradual normalization of energy exports

Markets remain sensitive to any signs that negotiations could encounter obstacles. An interesting side note Israel Hayom US Pres. Trump is considering firing senior officials who opposed the nuclear agreement with Iran including war Sec. Pete Hegseth and CIA director John Ratcliff. HMMMM. I am not sure that will happen, but it is interesting.

The major US indices are continuing to move higher with the Dow industrial average yesterday trading in closing at a new all-time high. The futures are planning a 88 point gain in the Dow 30 this morning. The S&P futures are implying a gain of 8.21 points. The NASDAQ futures are implying a gain of 67 points. Shares of SpaceX continue their run to the upside was shares currently training over $200 but off premarket highs. The current prices trading at $202.71 up 5.28% on the data

in the US that market, yields are lower:

• 2 year yield 4.0558%, -0.8 basis points.
• 5 year yield 4.166%, -1.9 basis points
• 10 year yield 4.445%, -2.3 basis points
• 30 year yield 4.945%, -2.4 basis points.

In other markets:

• Crude oil is trading down close to three dollars at $77.82 and near the low for the day.
• Gold is trading up $34 or 0.81% at $4343.87
• Silver is trading up $0.70 or 1.0% at $70.67

• 100 hour moving average at $86.71
• 100 day moving average at $86.63
• Swing area between $85.45 and $86.35

That area between $85.45 and $86.71 served as a key support zone for much of the period following the start of the U.S.-Iran conflict (red numbered circles). Now that the price has broken below that floor, the zone becomes an important resistance area. If the bearish trend is to remain intact, sellers would not want to see crude oil climb back above that resistance cluster anytime soon.

Fundamentally, the backdrop has shifted toward a more bearish outlook. Expectations for increased global supply, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and the potential easing of sanctions on Iran should all work to add barrels back into the market and weigh on prices. As a result, the path of least resistance currently appears to be to the downside.

The primary risk to that view is a renewed escalation in the conflict. Any breakdown in the agreement, renewed military action, or another closure of the Strait of Hormuz could quickly reintroduce a geopolitical risk premium and send prices sharply higher. It is worth remembering that crude oil was trading at just $67.04 on February 27, the day before the war began, underscoring how much of the previous rally was driven by supply disruption fears.

On the downside, getting below $77.57 would have traders looking toward the 200 day moving average at $73.42. Below that and traded start to target the February 27 closing level of $67.04 as a target.

The price of gas is $4.06 down from around $4.56 high. The progression of price from the start of the war:

• February 27: $2.98 per gallon (pre-war)
• March 26: $3.98 per gallon
• Early April: $4.16 per gallon
• Mid-May peak: Above $4.50 per gallon nationally
• Recent high: About $4.56 per gallon in May before beginning to decline

From a technical perspective, the first key upside target comes at 1.16287, the 50% retracement of the decline from the March 13 high. A sustained move above that level would increase the bullish bias and open the door toward the June 4 and June 5 highs near 1.1644, followed by a more significant resistance zone between 1.1655 and 1.1667. Beyond that, the 200-day and 100-day moving averages, currently at 1.1675 and 1.1684 respectively, represent major hurdles. A break and hold above those moving averages would shift the broader technical picture more firmly in favor of the buyers.

On the downside, support begins at today's low of 1.15937. A move below that level, and especially below the swing area between 1.1576 and 1.1587, would weaken the bullish case and have traders looking back toward the 100- and 200-hour moving averages, which currently converge between 1.1563 and 1.1569.

For now, buyers retain a modest near-term advantage after the early-session rally, but they need to push above the midpoint retracement level to strengthen their grip on the market.

The ECB met last weekend raised rates by 25 basis points. The US Federal Reserve will announce their interest rate decision on Wednesday. No change us expected.

Looking at the hourly chart, the AUDUSD gapped higher on the positive developments out of the Middle East and, in the process, moved above its falling 200-hour moving average, currently at 0.70637. Aside from a few brief corrective dips, the pair has managed to hold above that key technical level, keeping buyers in control.

The challenge for bulls, however, has been the 100-day moving average at 0.7083. The pair has now made three separate attempts to break and sustain a move above that level, only to be turned back each time. As a result, a battle is developing between support at the 200-hour moving average (0.70637) and resistance at the 100-day moving average (0.7083). A decisive break above the 100-day moving average would shift the focus toward the next resistance zone between 0.7100 and 0.7113 and give buyers greater control. Conversely, a move back below the 200-hour moving average with momentum would increase the bearish bias and target the 100-hour moving average, currently near 0.7032.

The NZDUSD tells a different story.

Like the AUDUSD, the pair initially benefited from the risk-on tone, gapping above its 200-hour moving average at 0.5830 and extending to a high of 0.5864. However, the upside momentum quickly faded. The pair has since rotated back lower and is now trading near the lows of the day, around 0.5833, essentially unchanged from Friday's close.

For now, the 200-hour moving average at 0.5830 remains a key support level. As long as buyers can defend that area, the potential remains for another push higher following the current correction. However, a break below the 200-hour moving average would likely disappoint bullish traders and shift the focus toward the 100-hour moving average at 0.5818 and the nearby swing area between 0.5813 and 0.5822. A move below that support cluster would represent a more bearish technical development.

In short, improving risk sentiment is helping propel the AUDUSD higher, while the NZDUSD is struggling to maintain its gains. The technicals are sending two different messages, and the key moving averages highlighted above will help determine the next move for both pairs.

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Both indices opened with bullish upside gaps and, in the process, surged above their respective 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages. It marks the first time either index has traded above both key technical levels since June 4, shifting the near-term bias back in favor of the buyers. As a result, those moving averages now become critical risk-defining levels. As long as the price remains above them, the bulls maintain control.

For the S&P 500, the 100-hour moving average sits at 7,489.11, while the 200-hour moving average comes in at 7,441.86. The index is currently trading near 7,545.29, up 114 points or 1.54% on the day. A move back below both moving averages would weaken the bullish outlook and hand the advantage back to sellers. Until then, traders can focus on the record high at 7,620.90 as the next major upside target.

The Nasdaq tells a similar story. The index gapped above both its 100-hour moving average at 26,382.22 and its 200-hour moving average at 26,228.87. It currently trades near 26,501, up 612 points or 2.37%. As with the S&P, maintaining price action above those key moving averages keeps buyers firmly in charge. On the topside, traders will first look toward 26,826.97 as an interim target, with the all-time high at 27,190.21 looming beyond.

The bottom line: the bulls are back on the offensive. They're charging, snorting, and reclaiming control on Wall Street. The technical roadmap is clear — stay above the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages, and the path of least resistance remains higher.