At the same time, the broader market tone is being shaped by shifting headlines around the Iran/US/Israel conflict and ongoing efforts toward a ceasefire or negotiated resolution. There is still an underlying sense of cautious optimism, but the latest reports have introduced some uncertainty. Iranian sources are indicating that Abbas Araghchi will not meet with US officials in Pakistan, while other reports suggest that US envoys, including Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, are expected to travel to Pakistan to meet with Iran’s foreign minister to discuss a potential path toward ending the conflict. The conflicting narratives are creating a degree of hesitation, keeping volatility elevated and conviction somewhat muted.

From a technical perspective, the key for sellers is follow-through below the 100-hour moving average at 159.347. A sustained break would open the door for a test of the 200-hour moving average at 159.132. That level represents a more important barometer for short-term bias. A move below both moving averages would tilt control more firmly in favor of sellers and likely trigger additional downside momentum.

If that bearish momentum builds, traders will next target the 159.00 handle as a near-term psychological level. Below that, the focus shifts to the lower swing area between 158.01 and 158.26, which represents a more meaningful support zone and a potential downside objective if sellers take control. Until those levels give way, however, the pair remains in a battle between modestly softer yields and still-elevated rate levels, alongside headline-driven swings tied to geopolitical developments.

Since March 30 with the market closing at its low at $165.17.

• Total trading days: ~18
• Up days: 13
• Down days: 5

What stands out

• Strong upside run followed, including a ~10-day winning streak into mid-April
• Late April saw a couple of pullback days, but the trend remained higher overall

Bottom line

• Bias: Clearly bullish since March 30
• Structure: More than 2-to-1 up vs down days
• Theme: Classic “break low → trend higher” behavior—buyers in control most sessions

Technically, the move higher has checked a lot of bullish boxes for NVIDIA (NVDA). On the run-up, the price pushed back above its 200-day moving average at $182.85 and the 100-day moving average at $184.63 (green and blue lines on the daily chart above), flipping the bias back to the upside, after the corrective move lower that corrected the price to the 38.2% of the move up from 2025 low . Holding that retracement, proved to be a solid support.

From there, the market extended above the 100/200 day MAs and broke above the "old" 2026 high from February 25 at $197.63, which was a key ceiling.

What’s more important is what happened after the break. The subsequent corrective lows came in at $197.84 on April 20 and $197.22 on April 23—basically holding right around that old high. That’s what you want to see. Former resistance turning into support is a classic sign that buyers are still in control. The ability to hold that area and push higher over the last few sessions keeps the bullish bias intact.

From a trading perspective, that $197.63 level is your risk barometer. Stay above, and buyers remain in control. Move below, and the door opens for a deeper correction on the disappointment.

On the topside, the next target is clear: the all-time high from October 29 at $212.19. With the current price trading around $208.65, the market is within striking distance. The question now is whether momentum can carry it through that level and into new high ground.

Shares of chips stocks are taking their clue from Intel with the share price currently up $16 or 24.06%. For the trading year, Intel shares are up 124.53%. Shares of micron are also surging by 4.47%. There shares are up 76.26% in 2026. Intel shares in comparison are only up 12.17% for the trading year.

Below is a list of chip sector stocks and the winners and losers today:

Chip Sector – Daily % Change (Updated)

How are the Magnificent 7 doing today?

The price action is leaning mostly to the upside, led by a standout move in NVIDIA, which is up close to 5% Amazon and Meta also posted solid gains, while Microsoft and Tesla chipped in with more modest advances. On the flip side, Alphabet and Apple lagged, both closing lower and acting as a drag on the group.

Year-to-date, the performance across the Magnificent 7 is a bit more mixed. On the topside, Amazon and NVIDIA are leading the way with gains of around 12%, showing where the strength and momentum has been concentrated. Alphabet is also holding solid gains, while Meta is barely positive—more of a laggard among the winners.

On the downside, Apple is essentially flat on the year, but Microsoft and Tesla stand out as the clear underperformers, both down double digits. Tesla, in particular, is lagging the most, down over 16%.

So when you step back, the theme is pretty clear: leadership is narrow, with a few names carrying the weight, while others—especially Microsoft and Tesla—have struggled. It’s not a broad-based rally across the group, but rather a selective, momentum-driven move led by a handful of names.

Looking ahead, the March advance reading of +0.6% looks solid at first glance. However, a chunk of that strength is likely tied to gasoline prices, so the cleaner signal will come with next month’s ex-gas breakdown.

Bottom line: The headline miss is tempered by stronger revisions and a firm advance read, suggesting the Canadian consumer was holding up reasonably well heading into the Iran conflict.

USDCAD reaction and technicals

The data helped push USDCAD lower initially, with additional pressure coming from headlines that Iran will send a delegation to Pakistan — a modest positive for risk and a negative for the USD. However, as the session has evolved, we’ve seen a rotation back to the upside as geopolitical uncertainty continues to drive flows heading into the weekend.

Technically, it’s been a two-way trade. The early move higher extended toward a resistance target near 1.3715, with the high reaching 1.3714, just shy of that level. That push also took the price above the 200-hour moving average at 1.3694 — a bullish step.

But buyers couldn’t sustain the momentum. The price rotated back lower, breaking back below the 200-hour MA and falling to 1.3679. On the downside, the 100-hour moving average at 1.3667 becomes the next key barometer. A break below that level would tilt the bias more firmly in favor of sellers.

For now, the pair is trading between the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages, putting it in a more neutral zone.

• Above 1.3715 and the 200-hour MA (1.3694): Buyers regain control → target 100-day MA at 1.3738 and 50% retracement at 1.3745
• Below the 100-hour MA (1.3667): Sellers gain control → target weekly low / swing area between 1.3619 and 1.3630

As we head toward the weekend, expect headline risk to continue to drive the next directional move.

From a technical perspective, the pair did what buyers needed initially — pushing back above the 100-day moving average at 0.78639. That’s a bullish step. However, the rally ran into a wall in a key swing area between 0.7869 and 0.7878, which also lines up with the 38.2% retracement of the 2026 range at 0.78739. That combination created a ceiling, and the failure up there opened the door for sellers to lean back in.

The move lower on the geopolitical headlines has now taken the price back below the 100-day MA, shifting the bias back toward the downside. If the pair can stay below that MA — and below the swing area high at 0.7878 — the earlier bullish momentum starts to fade.

On the downside, sellers will start targeting a key cluster between 0.7831 and 0.7840. That zone is loaded: it includes the 50% midpoint of the 2026 range, along with the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages (roughly 0.7822–0.7824). That’s your next barometer. If sellers can push through that cluster, it would tilt control more firmly in their favor and open the door for a deeper move lower.

On the corporate side, Intel is the standout. Shares are sharply higher after a blowout earnings report, continuing a remarkable turnaround for what was not long ago viewed as a laggard in the chip space. Revenue came in at $13.6B (well above expectations), while EPS printed at $0.29 vs $0.01 expected, sending the stock up roughly 20% to $82.

That move also shines a spotlight on last August’s policy decision, when the U.S. government converted $8.9B in unspent CHIPS Act funding into a ~9.9% equity stake, acquiring 433.3 million shares at $20.47. At today’s price, that position is now worth approximately $35.5B, translating to a ~$26.6B gain (+299%) in under a year. Even when factoring in total exposure of about $11.1B, the return is still roughly +220%. The stake remains unrealized, with no indication yet on timing for any potential exit.

The estimated current total direct cost estimates stands at approximately $35 billion, or roughly $236 per U.S. taxpayer and equal to the value of the Intel stock (assuming they continue to hold the full position).

In broader markets, stocks are rebounding:

• Dow: -25 points
• S&P 500: +31 points (after -29 yesterday)
• Nasdaq: +361 points (after -219 yesterday)

In FX, the dollar is correcting lower after a stronger week:

• EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD: All seeing USD weakness after prior gains

Rates are slightly lower but still elevated:

• 2-year yield: -0.5 bps
• 10-year yield: -1.0 bps (holding above 4.30%)

Meanwhile, crude oil is down about 1%, easing slightly after recent volatility.

In the video above, I break down the technicals for EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD, focusing on the key levels that are defining bias, risk, and targets as the dollar pulls back.

On the downside, the 100- and 200-day moving averages—clustered between 1.3414 and 1.3424—serve as a critical support zone. This area represents a classic “line in the sand” where buyers have recently leaned to defend the broader bullish bias. A move below that cluster would not only break a key technical floor but also tilt the short-term bias back in favor of the sellers, likely leading to increased downside probing as confidence in the bullish structure erodes.

Bottom line: The battle lines are clearly drawn. Resistance above at 1.34708–1.3488 defines the upside breakout zone, while support below at the 100- and 200-day moving averages defines the risk for buyers. With price squeezed between these levels, the pair is coiling into the close, and the next directional move will likely be driven by weekend headlines and how traders respond in the early hours of Monday trading.

From a technical perspective, the move higher is now testing an important zone. On the 4-hour chart, price is extending into a swing area between 1.1726 and 1.1741. Adding to that importance, the 50% midpoint of the 2026 trading range comes in at 1.17443, creating a key confluence area.

If buyers can push and hold above that zone, the next upside targets come into focus between 1.1765 and 1.1778—another swing area that could act as the next ceiling.

On the downside, today’s low briefly dipped below the 100-day moving average at 1.1688, but importantly held above the 200-day moving average at 1.1671. Those moving averages remain key barometers for bias. Holding above and rotating higher keeps buyers more in control and tilts the bias to the upside.

Key levels to watch:

• Upside targets: 1.1726–1.1741 → 1.17443 (50% midpoint) → 1.1765–1.1778
• Support/risk: 100-day MA at 1.1688, then 200-day MA at 1.1671

Bottom line: Momentum has shifted back to the upside on weaker sentiment data. Staying above the 100/200-day MAs keeps buyers in control, with a break above 1.1744 opening the door for further gains.

Earlier this week, the pair dipped below that moving average on Wednesday and again yesterday, but sellers struggled to sustain momentum near the 38.2% retracement at 0.7873. That hesitation is no longer evident. Today’s price action has pushed decisively below both the 100-day MA and the 38.2% level, with increased downside momentum.

That shift now redefines those levels—0.7873 to 0.7886—as a clear topside risk zone. As long as the price stays below that area, sellers remain in control and can continue to lean against it as a risk-defining ceiling.

Looking lower, the next downside targets come into focus:

• 0.7834–0.7840: Swing area support (former resistance in early March, turned support after the March 12 breakout)
• 0.78216: 50% midpoint of the 2026 trading range

Bottom line: Sellers are making a stronger play as momentum builds below key technical levels. Staying below the 100-day MA keeps the bearish bias intact, with downside targets at 0.7835 and 0.78216.

In the rates market, the yield curve is showing a modest steepening bias, with short-end yields inching lower while longer-dated yields drift slightly higher. That dynamic suggests a market that is not yet ready to fully commit to a policy path, instead waiting for clearer signals from incoming data.

Equities are similarly subdued. The major US indices are hovering near unchanged levels, caught between competing forces of resilient economic data and lingering uncertainty around inflation and central bank policy. There is no strong directional push, reinforcing the idea that traders are in a holding pattern as they await the next catalyst.

In the foreign exchange market, the USD is mixed. The greenback is firmer against the JPY, supported in part by the uptick in longer-term yields, while slipping modestly against the EUR and GBP. However, the moves are relatively contained, underscoring the broader theme of consolidation and indecision across markets.

In the video above, I walk through the three major currency pairs—EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD—from a technical perspective. The focus remains on identifying the bias, defining the key risk levels traders are leaning against, and outlining the upside and downside targets that will shape the next directional move. As always, those technical levels serve as the barometer for buyers and sellers—levels where risk can be defined and where momentum either builds or fades.

Looking ahead, the calendar is front-loaded with important data that could provide that needed catalyst. At 8:30 AM ET, the US CPI report takes center stage. Expectations are for a 0.9% rise in the headline month-over-month figure, a notable jump from the 0.3% increase last month, while core CPI is expected to come in at 0.3% versus 0.2% previously. On a year-over-year basis, headline inflation is projected at 3.3%, with core at 2.7%. Any deviation from those expectations—especially on the core side—could quickly shift rate expectations and, in turn, drive moves in yields, equities, and the USD.

At the same time, Canada releases its March employment report. Job growth is expected to rebound modestly with a gain of 15.0K following last month’s sharp decline of 83.9K. The unemployment rate is forecast to tick up slightly to 6.8% from 6.7%. Traders will also be watching the composition of employment after last month’s notable drop in full-time jobs (-108.4K) contrasted with a rise in part-time positions (+24.5K), a mix that raised some concerns about underlying labor market strength.

Later in the morning, at 10:00 AM ET, US factory orders for February are expected to decline by 0.2% after a 0.1% increase in January. With preliminary durable goods orders already showing a -1.4% drop, the revision and the broader factory orders data will provide additional insight into the health of the manufacturing sector.

Bottom line: Markets are in a wait-and-see mode, with price action subdued across assets. The technical levels in the major currency pairs remain the key guideposts for traders, but it is the upcoming data—particularly CPI—that has the potential to break the current stalemate and set the next directional tone.

From a technical perspective, the pair has reclaimed a key cluster of levels. Price is now back above the

• 50% midpoint of the move down from the February 10 high at 1.1667,
• 200-day moving average at 1.16718, and the
• 100-day moving average at 1.16862.

Earlier in the US session, the initial break above this zone failed, with price rotating back toward the 200-day MA. However, renewed momentum—driven in part by the shifting geopolitical tone—has pushed the pair back above the cluster.

That area now becomes the risk-defining level. If buyers are to maintain control, the price needs to stay above this confluence of support. Holding above keeps the bullish bias intact; falling back below would tilt the balance back toward the sellers.

On the topside, the next target comes in between 1.17265 and 1.17414. A break above that zone would open the door toward the next swing area between 1.1765 and 1.1778

From a technical perspective, yesterday’s sharp move lower tested a key swing area between 158.01 and 158.26. Sellers briefly pushed the price below that zone to a low of 157.88, but momentum could not be sustained. That failure to hold below support gave buyers a foothold, and the pair began to rebuild to the upside.

That upside momentum has carried into today’s session, with price extending toward the converged 100- and 200-hour moving averages near 159.23. The high reached 159.28—just above that cluster—before rotating back down toward 159.17.

This convergence of moving averages is a classic battleground. When key MAs come together, they tend to define and limit risk, attracting both buyers and sellers. In this case, the market is approaching from below, and notably, these same levels previously acted as support before being broken. That shift in structure suggests the zone may now serve as resistance, at least on the first test.

More broadly, USDJPY remains stuck within its well-defined range. Since March 11, most of the price action has been contained between 158 on the downside and 160 on the topside. While there have been brief excursions beyond those boundaries, the market continues to gravitate back into this range—keeping traders focused on those levels as the key barometers for directional bias.

From a technical perspective, the pair pushed above the 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart (0.57779) and then cleared the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the 2026 high at 0.5835. That upside run extended further, with price briefly moving above the 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart (0.58455). However, momentum could not be sustained at that level, and the pair rotated lower.

Importantly, the pullback was contained and orderly. The decline held well above the 38.2% retracement of the recent move higher (near 0.5800), signaling that buyers were still in control. That support held, and the pair has since resumed its push to the upside in today’s trading.

Currently, NZDUSD is back above the 0.5835 retracement level, but once again facing hesitation near the 200-bar moving average at 0.58455—a level that is proving to be a key near-term ceiling.

For buyers to take firmer control, they need to break and stay above the 200-bar MA. A sustained move higher would open the door toward the next upside target at the 50% midpoint of the 2026 range near 0.5884.

On the downside, failure to extend above 0.58455—and a move back below 0.5835—would shift focus back toward support. A deeper correction could mirror yesterday’s pullback, with downside targets at:

• 0.5800 area (38.2% retracement of the recent rally)
• Yesterday’s low

In the video above, I walk through these levels in detail—highlighting the bias, risk-defining levels, and upside/downside targets—so traders can stay aligned with the prevailing momentum rather than fight it.

US stocks are erasing their earlier losses. That is helping to support the risk on trade idea (higher NZDUSD). The S&P index is down -0.10% while the NASDAQ index is down -0.09%.

The market is increasingly worried that crude supplies will grow tighter as the Strait remains essentially closed during negotiations. Officials will meet Saturday in Pakistan but in the meantime, the crude isn't moving and Iran has attached that to potential tolls and the ongoing Israeli strikes in Lebanon, which are continuing today.

With that, oil is picking up and is now testing the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the fall that began on Tuesday on signs that a deal was coming together.

The problem for the oil market is that something like 13 million barrels per day are being removed from the world market and production is shut down behind it. Once the Strait opens, it might open slowly and it could take months before it's back to full capacity.

In that time, global inventories will be drawn down and it will leave the market inevitably tighter than otherwise. There is some surge capacity via OPEC but at most it could add 2 million barrels per day and with the attacks on Russian infrastructure, that may be optimistic.

Looking further out the curve, the market doesn't show a big bet on structural tightness. December WTI trades at $74.68 compared to about $62 before the war started. That's about a 20% rise which is a number that hurts central bank inflation targets but isn't a big hindrance to global growth. Since the ceasefire though, it hasn't moved lower and we're now roughly in the middle of the war range.

I would argue that this chart is more important for cross-asset prices than the May number as it indicates a view on future market tightness.

For now, the stock market isn't overreacting to the short-term crude rise but it will if the ceasefire looks like it's falling apart. Also note that Treasury yields are ticking up with US 10s at the the highs of the day, up 2.4 bps to 4.315%.

• 200-day moving average at 0.7943
• Swing level near 0.79235
• 100-day moving average at 0.78877
• 38.2% retracement of the 2026 trading range at 0.78735

That sequence of breaks signaled a meaningful shift in bias. However, the move lacked full conviction. The break below the 38.2% retracement was shallow, and the pair rebounded into the close, climbing back toward the 0.79235 swing level.

That level has since become a key risk-defining barometer. In today’s trading, rallies stalled against 0.79235 on two separate occasions during the Asian and early European sessions, reinforcing it as near-term resistance. Sellers leaned against that ceiling—and so far, it has held.

In early North American trading, the pair has rotated lower once again, bringing focus back to the downside targets. The 100-day moving average at 0.78877 is the first key level, followed closely by the 38.2% retracement at 0.78735. This zone is critical. A clean break and sustained move below would give sellers more control and open the door for a run toward:

• Swing area from early March between 0.78348 and 0.7840
• 50% midpoint of the 2026 trading range at 0.78216

So the sellers have made their initial push, but the next step is crucial. They need to stay below the 100-day moving average and extend through the retracement level to confirm downside momentum.

On the flip side, 0.79235 remains the near-term risk level. A move back above that swing area would weaken the bearish bias and force a reassessment of control.

In short, the battle lines are drawn:

• Below 0.78877–0.78735 keeps sellers in charge
• Above 0.79235 shifts control back toward buyers

On the rebound, resistance near the 1.3868–1.3874 swing area capped the upside, and sellers leaned against that zone to reassert control. Since then, price action has become more defined. The 1.3860 level has emerged as a clear barometer, stalling rallies on multiple occasions—twice in the North American session yesterday and again during both the Asian and early European sessions today. Each failed attempt has reinforced that level as a risk-defining ceiling for buyers.

For buyers to regain momentum, they need to break and stay above 1.3860, and then push through the 1.3868–1.3874 swing area. A move above that zone would shift the short-term bias and open the door for a more sustained corrective move higher.

On the downside, the focus shifts to a key technical cluster. The next target comes in near 1.3816, where the 200-day moving average converges with the 50% retracement of the move up from the March 23 low. That area represents a critical battleground. A break below would tilt the bias more firmly in favor of sellers and pave the way for a move toward the 100-day moving average near 1.3773.

In short, sellers have made their move—but the job isn’t done. The question now is whether they can build on that momentum and force a break below the 200-day MA/50% retracement zone, or if buyers can regroup and reclaim control above the 1.3860–1.3874 resistance area. Those levels will define the next directional push.

There remains confusion around the scope of the cease-fire, particularly whether Lebanon is included. That matters. Iran’s backing of Hezbollah ties the region directly into the broader conflict, and with Israel continuing military operations in Lebanon, traders are left questioning how durable any “cease-fire” really is. In many ways, Tuesday’s announcement felt more like a “kick-the-can” moment—a temporary pause designed to buy time, keep negotiations alive, and potentially reopen the Strait of Hormuz—rather than a firm step toward lasting peace.

That said, diplomacy is still in motion. Delegations from Iran and the U.S. are expected to meet in Pakistan tomorrow, which could be a key inflection point. But until there is clarity—and more importantly, follow-through—markets will remain highly reactive to every headline.

At the core of it all is oil and access through the Strait of Hormuz. That remains the heartbeat of this story. After plunging 16–17% on hopes of de-escalation earlier in the week, crude has bounced back sharply. Prices are now higher by roughly 4–5%, with spot crude near $98.85 and the June contract around $90.93. While still below the psychological $100 level, it’s worth remembering that pre-conflict prices were sitting in the low $60s. That’s a massive repricing of geopolitical risk—and it’s not going away anytime soon.

Risk markets are reflecting the renewed uncertainty. U.S. equity futures are lower, with the Dow down around 150 points, the S&P off roughly 17 points, and the Nasdaq slipping modestly. At the same time, the bond market is showing a slight bid, with yields edging lower—the 2-year down 2 basis points to 3.77% and the 10-year off 1 basis point near 4.28%. That suggests a mild tilt toward safety, but not panic.

In the forex market, the USD is mixed and searching for direction. It’s modestly stronger against the JPY (up ~0.2%), reflecting some safe-haven demand, but softer versus the EUR and GBP (both down ~0.2%). Yesterday’s sharp dollar selloff has been followed by corrective price action, muddying the short-term picture and leaving traders focused on the next catalyst.

In the video above, I break down the three major currency pairs—EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD—from a technical perspective. I outline where the key moving averages, swing levels, and retracement zones come into play. More importantly, I focus on what matters most for traders - the risk levels and targets on where the bias is now working towards.

Yesterday, the pair extended above a key swing area between 159.74 and 159.96, reaching a high of 160.02. However, the breakout lacked follow-through. Buyers could not sustain momentum above that ceiling, and the price quickly rotated lower. The subsequent cease-fire headlines accelerated the downside move, pushing the pair toward a lower swing area between 158.01 and 158.26.

On the downside, sellers also failed to gain lasting control. The price briefly broke below that support zone to a low of 157.90, but like the failed upside breakout the day before, momentum stalled quickly. Buyers stepped back in, and the pair rotated higher once again.

Currently, the price is trading up near 158.74, with modest resistance at 158.89, followed by a more defined level near 159.21–159.22 (the lows from the prior four days).

The broader takeaway: both sides have had their opportunities—and both have failed to deliver sustained momentum. Buyers could not hold above 160.00. Sellers could not keep the price below 158.00. As a result, the pair has settled back into a well-defined range, with 158.00 as the floor and 160.00 as the ceiling.

Until there is a clear break outside that range, the price action remains consolidative, with traders likely to continue fading extremes rather than chasing breakouts.

On the topside, the rally stalled within a well-defined ceiling between 1.3470 and 1.3488, giving sellers a low-risk level to lean against. As the price failed to extend and rotated lower, those sellers began to gain traction—and the move back below the daily moving averages is now rewarding that positioning and reinforcing the bearish tilt.

The pair is still up 0.84% on the day, but some of the bullish luster has clearly faded. Momentum has stalled, and the inability to hold above key technical levels raises the risk of further downside probing. On the downside, 1.3400 is a natural support level and an important near-term barometer. The price has already dipped to 1.3401, just above that level. A sustained break below would increase selling pressure and open the door toward the 50% midpoint of the move down from February 26 at 1.33664.

In short, staying below the 1.3415–1.3417 zone keeps sellers in control, with 1.3400 as the next key level to crack to extend the move lower.

Technically, the tumble to the downside has seen the price move back below its

• 100 hour moving average at $106.69,
• 200 hour moving average at $102.97,
• 38.2% retracement of the range since the February 26 low at $98.21, and briefly below the
• 50% midpoint of the same trading range at $91.65.

The low for the day extended to $91.05 before bouncing back to the upside. The North American session low is stayed above the 50% level with a low of $91.84.

With the price low is still $30 above the February 26 low just before the start of the war on February 28, there is room to roam to the downside if markets calm down.

But will the markets come down? A move below the 50% midpoint would likely need a positive continuation of the cease-fire going forward.

The cease-fire headline added fuel to the move in early trading today, helping propel the pair above the March 23 high (1.1637) and the March 10 high (1.1644). From there, price extended into a key cluster of resistance levels, including the

• 50% retracement at 1.1667,
• 200-day moving average at 1.1673, and the
• 100-day moving average at 1.1685.

After breaking through that zone, the subsequent corrective pullback found support near the lower end of that cluster—an encouraging sign for buyers.

The rally extended to a North American session high of 1.1721, just shy of a key swing area between 1.1726 and 1.1741, where sellers leaned and stalled the advance. That area is the next target followed by the 1.1765 – 1.1778 area on further upside momentum.

The pair is now trading around the 100-day moving average (1.1685), making that level a critical short-term barometer.

For buyers, staying above the 100-day MA keeps the upside bias firmly intact, with another run toward the 1.1726–1.1741 resistance zone likely.

On the downside, a move back below the 50% retracement (1.1667) would signal a loss of momentum and could open the door for a deeper pullback toward the prior breakout area between 1.1637 and 1.1644.

From a technical perspective, the S&P surged above its 200-day moving average (6654.85) and 50-day moving average (6767.66), but stalled just ahead of the 100-day moving average (6803.97), with a high of 6793.50. The pullback has since taken the price back below the 50-day MA (currently near 6754), which now becomes a key barometer. Holding below that level gives sellers a foothold, while a move back above—along with a break of the 100-day MA—would be needed to reassert buyer control.

The NASDAQ is showing a similar dynamic. The index gapped above both its 200-day moving average (22379.93) and 50-day moving average (22539.23), but also stalled ahead of its 100-day moving average (22905.67), peaking at 22821.21. The current price near 22577 keeps it just above the 50-day MA, although the earlier dip to 22501.28 briefly broke below that level before buyers stepped back in.

In both indices, buyers made the aggressive move higher, but the inability to break the 100-day moving averages has given sellers a level to lean against. That sets up a more balanced battle: stay above the 50-day MA keeps buyers in the game, while failure to reclaim the 100-day MA gives sellers the confidence to press back lower.

The subsequent move higher on the ceasefire headlines said the price above the swing low from March 23 at 0.5760, and above the swing highs from March 27 and April 1. Additional momentum to the price above the 38.2% retracement at 0.5835, and also a downward sloping trendline near the same level. Finally the 200 hour moving average was reached at 0.58498, but momentum faded with the high price extending to 0.5859 before rotating back to the downside. Traders are now watching the 30.2% retracement at 0.5835, and below that support near the 0.5814 level. If the price can hold those levels the buyers remain in firm control. Moving below and we could see a further retracement to the downside as buyers near the highs get more uncomfortable.

Fundamentally, the The reserve Bank of New Zealand held its OCR at 2.25% as expected, signaling a cautious stance as near-term inflation is projected to rise while economic growth is expected to weaken. RBNZ Governor Breman said the decision to hold rates was unanimous and, while rate hikes were discussed, policymakers were not close to tightening and there was no strong support for a hike at this meeting. He noted that falling oil prices could push inflation forecasts higher, while tighter financial conditions are expected to modestly weigh on growth. Looking ahead, he kept optionality open, indicating that future rate hikes could come at every meeting or every second meeting, depending on how the data evolves, reinforcing a flexible, data-dependent policy path.

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That said, continuation is key. A sustained move below the 38.2% retracement and the 100-day moving average would add further confirmation to the bearish bias and give sellers more confidence to press the downside. If that happens, the next key target comes in near the 0.7830–0.7840 area, which is supported by prior swing levels on both the hourly and daily charts. A break below that zone—along with the 50% midpoint of the 2026 range at 0.78216—would strengthen the case for a deeper move lower.

On the flip side, sellers still need to guard against a failed breakdown. A move back above the 100-day moving average (0.7888) and especially the 0.7903 swing low would start to erode downside momentum and could disappoint sellers who are leaning on those levels as risk-defining resistance.

On the fundamental side, the SNB has made it clear it is not comfortable with excessive CHF strength, which is an important backdrop for this pair. The current move lower in USDCHF is more technically driven than a classic flight-to-safety bid into the franc, and that distinction matters. However, the CHF strength suggests the downside may have limits if policy concerns begin to weigh more heavily.

That said, traders should stay focused on the levels. If the price starts to reverse and reclaim previously broken support levels, it would signal that sellers are losing momentum and could give buyers renewed confidence. Those broken levels become the barometer—stay below keeps sellers in control, but move back above starts to shift the bias.

For now, however, the sellers remain firmly in control, with the technical breaks driving the price action. In the video above, I walk through these levels in detail and explain why they matter as key risk-defining areas for both buyers and sellers going forward.

Technically, the move lower did break below an upward-sloping trendline on the hourly chart, giving sellers a brief edge. However, the downside momentum stalled before reaching more significant support near the 200-day moving average and the 50% midpoint of the rally from the March 23 low, which comes in around the 1.3816 area (the low reached 1.3825).

That inability to extend lower proved telling. Buyers leaned against that support zone, and the price quickly rebounded, moving back above the broken trendline. The recovery also saw the pair reclaim the 38.2% retracement at 1.38514 and push above the prior swing low from last week near 1.3868, both of which now act as near-term barometers for bias. The bounce extended to a high of 1.3874 before modest selling resumed.

From here, the technical battle lines are clearer. For buyers to take more control, they need to hold above the 1.3851–1.3868 support zone and push back toward higher resistance targets, building on the failed breakdown. On the flip side, sellers had their shot on the cease-fire headline but failed to fully capitalize. A move back below that same support area—and especially a break toward the 200-day MA/50% midpoint—would be needed to tilt the bias back in favor of the downside.

IN the video above, I take a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD from a technical perspective. The bias in the major pair has shifted to the upside in the EURUSD and the GBPUSD and more to the downside in the USDJPY, but we have to also remember, the USD has been higher in 2026, so the declines are still retracing and moving toward key longer term targets.

I outline those targets as well as redefine close risk for traders looking to benefit from more dollar selling. So watch the video and better understand the roadmap going forward for the major currency pairs.

As a review of the overnight headline news, of course President Trump struck an upbeat and forward-looking tone, declaring it could be “a big day for world peace,” with Iran signaling willingness to move ahead and the U.S. assisting in stabilizing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. He pointed to the potential for significant economic activity and reconstruction, saying the U.S. would help supply materials and support rebuilding efforts, framing it as a possible “Golden Age” moment for the Middle East. At the same time, he outlined a firmer policy framework, stating the U.S. will work closely with Iran following what he described as a “productive regime change,” with a strict requirement of no uranium enrichment. He added that nuclear capabilities would be dismantled and closely monitored, while also indicating that tariff and sanctions relief are on the table, with many elements of a broader agreement already in place. Overall, Trump’s message combined optimism on peace and economic upside with clear red lines on nuclear policy and enforcement.

Vice President Vance described the situation as showing constructive progress but still fragile, noting that Iran has agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and that a pause in hostilities forms the basis of a tentative truce. He said some factions within Iran are engaging positively, but others are not, underscoring uncertainty around follow-through. Vance added that President Trump is impatient to secure a deal, stressing the importance of good-faith negotiations, while warning that failure by Iran to cooperate could lead to consequences, reinforcing a cautious but firm U.S. stance.

There have been reports of Iranian missile attacks on Kuwait and UAE in response to violations of the ceasefire. Israel is also bombing in southern Lebanon. Of course Israel may be a wild card in the process.

IN other news, the RBNZ held its OCR at 2.25% as expected, signaling a cautious stance as near-term inflation is projected to rise while economic growth is expected to weaken. The Committee emphasized its commitment to returning inflation to the 2% midpoint over the medium term, noting that this will require contained core inflation, moderate wage growth, and stable inflation expectations. While the current hold balances inflation risks against the risk of unnecessarily slowing the economy, policymakers made clear they are prepared to act decisively with rate hikes if inflation pressures broaden or expectations become unanchored. The Minutes highlighted a split in views, with some members favoring earlier tightening, while others stressed downside risks to growth and the need for more data. Overall, the outlook reflects rising short-term inflation pressures—driven in part by supply disruptions and geopolitical risks—alongside a softer growth backdrop, leaving the policy path data-dependent but tilted toward tightening if inflation persists.

RBNZ Governor Breman said the decision to hold rates was unanimous and, while rate hikes were discussed, policymakers were not close to tightening and there was no strong support for a hike at this meeting. He noted that falling oil prices could push inflation forecasts higher, while tighter financial conditions are expected to modestly weigh on growth. Looking ahead, he kept optionality open, indicating that future rate hikes could come at every meeting or every second meeting, depending on how the data evolves, reinforcing a flexible, data-dependent policy path.

The NZDUSD is sharply higher mostly in reaction to the ceasefire in Iran. The move to the upside has taken the NZDUSD above the 38.2% of the move down from the 2026 high at 0.5835, but fell short of the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 0.58503. The price is back below the 38.2% after the failed run to the upside. The price does not need to get and stay above those levels to increase the bullish bias.