The US dollar is mixed in the morning snapshot. The greenback is higher against the Australian dollar, Swiss franc, Japanese yen and euro, but lower against the New Zealand dollar, Canadian dollar and, marginally, the British pound.

Meanwhile, crude oil is recovering some ground after Monday’s sharp decline, while gold and silver are lower. The message across markets is mixed. There is still hope for a diplomatic breakthrough, but traders continue to face conflicting headlines and unresolved risks.

Middle East: Negotiations continue, but military action clouds the outlook

Yesterday’s hopes for progress toward a US-Iran agreement have been tempered by overnight developments. InvestingLive reported that talks involving Qatari mediators ended without a breakthrough, although contacts between Washington and Tehran continue through intermediaries.

Iran’s proposal links reopening the Strait of Hormuz to relief from the US blockade and restrictions on Iranian oil sales. The gap between continued negotiations and an agreement that can actually be implemented remains important for traders.

Adding to the uncertainty, the Associated Press reported, citing a US official, that the United States carried out strikes against Iranian targets near the Strait of Hormuz in response to surface-to-air missile threats against US forces. That leaves diplomacy and military pressure operating alongside each other.

For markets, the distinction matters. An agreement that restores shipping and reduces supply risks would give oil sellers more confidence. Further military action could quickly rebuild the geopolitical premium. The next headline still has the potential to change the near-term tone.

US election: The balance of power is the main event after the close

Control of Congress will help determine how much room President Trump has to advance his legislative agenda over the next two years.

A Republican hold of both chambers would preserve a clearer path for legislation. Democratic control of either chamber would increase the need for negotiation over spending and major policy changes. Control of the Senate also matters for appointments and confirmations.

For traders, the implications run through taxes, spending, regulation and government borrowing. The size of the majorities will matter alongside which party wins.

Results will begin taking shape after the stock market closes, and close races could leave control unresolved beyond tonight. That makes the overnight reaction and Wednesday’s opening levels important reference points.

For a preview of the key swing races, see my post: US election: The key races that could tip control of Congress.

RBA raises rates, but AUDUSD moves lower

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.85%, as expected. The decision was made by a 6–3 vote, with three members favoring a pause.

The inflation message was uncomfortable. The RBA revised its inflation outlook materially higher, pointing to domestic capacity pressures, elevated energy prices and the risk that higher inflation expectations become entrenched.

Governor Michele Bullock said growth needs to remain subdued and unemployment needs to rise further to bring inflation down. However, she did not commit to another hike, suggesting it was probably appropriate to wait and assess incoming data.

The AUDUSD is nevertheless down 0.26% at 0.6978 in the supplied snapshot. An expected rate hike does not automatically translate into a stronger currency. Traders also have to assess what comes next and what tighter policy means for growth.

The USD: Mixed, with gains against AUD, CHF and JPY

The dollar’s largest gain among the supplied pairs is against the Australian dollar helped by the rate hike. It is also higher against the Swiss franc and Japanese yen.

The New Zealand dollar shows the strongest percentage gain against the USD in the snapshot, followed by the Canadian dollar. Sterling is little changed.

The current levels are:

• EURUSD: 1.1177, down 0.07%.

• USDJPY: 158.22, up 0.18%.

• GBPUSD: 1.3406, up 0.01%.

• USDCHF: 0.8202, up 0.22%.

• USDCAD: 1.3979, down 0.05%.

• AUDUSD: 0.6978, down 0.26%.

• NZDUSD: 0.5620, up 0.09%.

Currency ranges: Most pairs still have room to extend

Using the highs and lows in the currency-price snapshot and the 22-day average ranges in the supplied range monitor:

• EURUSD: 1.1176 to 1.1206 — 30 pips, or 43% of its 69-pip average.

• GBPUSD: 1.3397 to 1.3429 — 32 pips, or 42% of its 77-pip average.

• USDJPY: 157.76 to 158.30 — 54 pips, or 108% of its 50-pip average.

• USDCHF: 0.8150 to 0.8203 — 53 pips, or 84% of its 63-pip average.

• USDCAD: 1.3951 to 1.3996 — 45 pips, or 104% of its 43-pip average.

• AUDUSD: 0.6962 to 0.7003 — 41 pips, or 95% of its 43-pip average.

• NZDUSD: 0.5603 to 0.5631 — 28 pips, or 67% of its 42-pip average.

EURUSD and GBPUSD have the most meaningful room to extend relative to their normal daily movement. Both have completed less than half their average range.

USDJPY and USDCAD have already exceeded their averages, while AUDUSD is close to a normal full-day range. That does not prevent further movement, but those pairs have already covered more ground.

The average range is a barometer, not a ceiling. A data surprise or headline can still stretch a market beyond its normal movement.

US stock futures: Nasdaq higher, Dow lower

The supplied futures figures point to a mixed opening:

• Dow industrial average futures: down 350 points.

• Nasdaq 100 futures: up 72 points.

• S&P is trading above and below unchanged

The divergence keeps the focus on whether strength can broaden as the session develops. With election results still ahead, an early move will need follow-through before traders can have more confidence in the direction.

Treasury yields move higher

US yields are higher across the key maturities:

• 2-year: 4.608%, up 2.5 basis points.

• 5-year: 4.7268%, up 3.38 basis points.

• 10-year: 4.929%, up 3.5 basis points.

• 30-year: 5.2996%, up 3.06 basis points.

Higher yields provide a competing influence for stocks and support for the dollar, although the currency reaction remains mixed this morning.

European stocks trade lower

The supplied European snapshot shows broad declines:

• Germany’s DAX: 25,872.08, down 109.02 points or 0.42%.

• France’s CAC: 8,042.66, down 5.04 points or 0.06%.

• UK’s FTSE 100: 10,698.71, down 62.63 points or 0.58%.

• Spain’s IBEX: 18,849.30, down 108.50 points or 0.57%.

• Italy’s FTSE MIB: 49,851.93, down 96.02 points or 0.19%.

Commodities: Oil rebounds, precious metals retreat

WTI crude oil is trading at $97.18, up $0.72 or 0.75%. The rebound comes as overnight military developments complicate the diplomatic optimism behind Monday’s decline.

Spot gold is at $3,925.85, down $20.885 or 0.53%. Higher Treasury yields increase the opportunity cost of holding a non-interest-bearing asset, providing a headwind for gold.

Silver is down 2.24% at $49.5093, while copper is down 2.73% at $6.3880. Bitcoin is firmer at $77,335, up $660 or 0.86%.

North American calendar: JOLTS and factory orders at 10 AM ET

The main scheduled releases in the supplied calendar are:

• 10:00 AM ET – September factory orders – Forecast: +1.2% – Previous: +0.1%.

• 10:00 AM ET – September JOLTS job openings – Forecast: 7.100 million – Previous: 7.079 million.

The calendar also includes September durable-goods and factory-order details.

JOLTS gives traders another barometer of labor demand. A stronger reading would suggest employers still have an appetite to hire, while a weaker number would point toward further cooling. The market reaction will depend on the size of the surprise and what the details say about labor-market conditions.

In the morning video above, I take a look at the three major currency pairs—EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD—from a technical perspective. For each pair, I outline the bias, the risk-defining levels and the targets that would give either the buyers or sellers more control.

The day started with a test of the 100-hour and 100-day moving averages near 0.7038. Sellers leaned against that resistance and pushed the price lower. Initial declines toward 0.7014 and then 0.6998 attracted bounce-back rallies, but buyers could not sustain the recoveries. The latest move has extended the session low to 0.6996, taking the pair to its lowest level since October 22.

Key swing support comes into focus

The decline has brought the price just above a swing area between 0.69898 and 0.69943, going back to September 30. That area is now the next key barometer for buyers and sellers.

Buyers looking to stall the fall can lean against that support with close risk below. For sellers, getting and staying below 0.69898 would open the door for further downside momentum toward 0.6970.

Last week’s rebound stalled near the midpoint

Last week also featured two-way price action, but the upside move found a ceiling on Thursday near the 50% midpoint of the decline from the September high. That retracement came in at 0.70654, and the high reached just above it at 0.70674 before rotating lower.

Today’s rejection near the 100-day and 100-hour moving averages gave sellers the technical tilt needed to extend the decline. As long as the price remains below those moving averages near 0.7038, sellers retain control. The next step is to break the 0.69898–0.69943 swing area and keep the downside momentum going.

In the video

In this video, I show how the rejection near the 100-hour and 100-day moving averages gave sellers control and helped the AUDUSD step lower. I also outline why the 0.69898–0.69943 swing area is the next key barometer, with a break below opening the door toward 0.6970.

Trading education: Let the technical levels define your risk

A swing area gives traders a place to measure whether buyers or sellers are taking control. As the AUDUSD approaches 0.69898–0.69943, buyers can lean against that support with close risk below. However, holding support is only the first step. Buyers also need to push the price away from the area to show they are gaining traction.

For sellers, a break below support needs follow-through. Getting below the area and staying below would strengthen the bearish bias. A break that quickly reverses back above it would signal a failed break and could force sellers to cover. The lesson is to let the price action around the level define the bias, risk, and next target.

Buyers are leaning against that support and have pushed the price back toward 1.3975 on the chart. That gives them an opportunity to build a corrective move higher. It also gives them a close risk level. Stay above the support area, and the buyers can stay in the game. Move below, and the selling can resume.

Buyers have work to do on the topside

Holding support is a start, but buyers still need to get through a cluster of technical resistance to take back more control.

The first hurdle is the falling 100-hour moving average at 1.39976. Above that sits the 200-hour moving average near 1.4009, followed by the 50% midpoint of the August-to-October move near 1.4016.

Those levels are the next upside barometers. A move above the 100-hour moving average would give buyers some encouragement, but getting and staying above the full cluster would strengthen the corrective bias.

From there, the 100-day moving average at 1.40453 becomes the next target, followed by the swing area between 1.4068 and 1.4080 and the 38.2% retracement at 1.40828.

A break below support puts sellers back in control

Conversely, if the bounce stalls below the hourly moving averages and the price breaks below 1.3948–1.39497, the sellers would have the opportunity to extend the decline. The 200-day moving average at 1.38877 would become the next key downside target.

For now, buyers have stalled the fall at a logical support level. They need to build on that defense by taking out resistance above. Until then, the bounce remains a correction within the broader move lower.

Iranian negotiators left Doha on Sunday, although sources said their departure was not due to difficulties in the negotiations. A draft proposal has been circulated for feedback, and a follow-up meeting remains possible.

Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Baghaei said messages continue to be exchanged and that the US must make a decision. He described the issues as complex and presented Iran’s willingness to compress implementation of its seven-day proposal into two days as a sign of goodwill. However, Iran also maintains that the Strait cannot reopen before US sanctions are lifted.

Separately, Kyodo reported that a senior Iranian official linked reopening to US acceptance of seven conditions. The official suggested Iran could adopt a more flexible position on the nuclear issue if an agreement on reopening the Strait is reached.

For traders, continued talks keep the possibility of an agreement alive. The conditions attached to those talks leave plenty of room for another shift in expectations. Neverthless, oil is starting the week sharply lower, but the headlines have yet to deliver a confirmed agreement.

The dollar is mixed. Swiss franc leads the gains

The US dollar is losing ground against the Swiss franc, euro, British pound and Canadian dollar, while advancing against the Australian dollar, Japanese yen and New Zealand dollar.

The Swiss franc is the strongest currency in the supplied snapshot, with USDCHF down 0.74% at 0.8189. The euro is also finding buyers, with EURUSD up 0.52% at 1.1216. GBPUSD is trading at 1.3422, up 0.23%.

On the other side, AUDUSD is down 0.33% at 0.7007, making the Australian dollar the weakest of the major currencies. USDJPY is up 0.20% at 157.84, while NZDUSD is down 0.05% at 0.5625. USDCAD is little changed at 1.3971, down 0.01%.

That combination gives the morning a mixed currency tone. Buyers and sellers will need to take their direction from the individual pairs and the technical levels that define risk.

Currency ranges: EURUSD and USDCHF have already stretched

Using the session highs and lows from the price snapshot and the 22-day average ranges (around a month of trading), the price action today is lively with the EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDCHF trading near the ATR or above that range so far.  Looking at the EURUSD and GBPUSD, each has corrected into the NA session. The USDHF is trading near its low of the days trading range. 

• EURUSD: 1.1155–1.1237 — 82 pips, or 122% of its 67-pip average.

• GBPUSD: 1.3380–1.3449 — 69 pips, or 97% of its 71-pip average.

• USDJPY: 157.48–157.99 — 51 pips, or 63% of its 81-pip average.

• USDCHF: 0.8190–0.8253 — 63 pips, or 124% of its 51-pip average.

• USDCAD: 1.3951–1.3987 — 36 pips, or 56% of its 64-pip average.

• AUDUSD: 0.7004–0.7036 — 32 pips, or 74% of its 43-pip average.

• NZDUSD: 0.5609–0.5645 — 36 pips, or 84% of its 43-pip average.

EURUSD and USDCHF have already exceeded their normal daily ranges, while GBPUSD has nearly completed its average. That does not prevent further movement, but traders chasing those moves should recognize how much ground has already been covered.

USDCAD and USDJPY have the most room to extend relative to their averages. A data surprise or a technical break could provide the next push. The average range is context, however, rather than a requirement that prices travel farther.

Stocks start November higher after a rough October

US stock futures are pointing to a higher opening as traders kickstart a new week and month. The gains offer some relief after a difficult October, particularly for the technology sector, where concerns about AI spending, profitability and earnings expectations weighed on sentiment.

• Dow futures: Up 175 points.

• S&P 500 futures: Up 33 points.

• Nasdaq futures: Up 193 points.

The early rebound gives buyers a chance to regain some control. The next test is whether those gains can hold and build after the opening bell. Following October’s selling, a stronger start is encouraging, but buyers still need to show they can sustain the momentum.

Apple earnings after the close

Apple’s earnings after the close will provide an important early test for the new month. Investors will focus on iPhone demand, services growth and guidance for the holiday quarter. Commentary on AI features and their ability to encourage upgrades will also be closely watched, along with whether higher memory-chip costs are putting pressure on margins.

For the broader technology sector, the question remains whether earnings and guidance can support renewed buying. Apple’s results could help determine whether today’s rebound gains traction or sellers use the bounce to lean against higher prices.

Treasury yields: Short end higher, long end lower

US Treasury yields are mixed, with the two-year yield moving higher while longer maturities edge lower:

• 2-year: 4.5999%, up 1.89 basis points.

• 5-year: 4.7215%, down 0.05 basis points.

• 10-year: 4.9207%, down 0.83 basis points.

• 30-year: 5.2911%, down 1.79 basis points.

The moves leave the curve flatter in the supplied snapshot. There is no uniform move higher or lower in yields to give the dollar a clear direction across the board.

Oil drops more than 4%. Metals rebound

Crude oil is the standout mover, trading at $99.81, down $4.31 or 4.14%, as the Iran negotiation headlines remain in focus. The move puts oil back below $100, with traders watching whether further diplomatic progress can sustain the selling.

Spot gold is trading at $3,900.175, up $24.53 or 0.63%. Silver is up 1.90% at $50.0392, while copper is up 0.67% at $6.5255.

Bitcoin is moving in the opposite direction, down $460 or 0.59% at $77,773. The gains in metals are therefore not being matched across all alternative assets.

North American calendar: ISM manufacturing takes center stage

The calendar builds toward the 10:00 AM ET releases:

• 9:30 AM ET – Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, October – Forecast: not shown – Previous: 51.5.

• 9:45 AM ET – US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, October final – Forecast: 56.0 – Previous: 55.9.

• 10:00 AM ET – US Construction Spending, September – Forecast: 0.3% – Previous: 0.9%.

• 10:00 AM ET – US ISM Manufacturing PMI, October – Forecast: 54.5 – Previous: 54.5.

• 10:00 AM ET – ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid – Forecast: 77.5 – Previous: 77.9.

• 10:00 AM ET – ISM Manufacturing Employment – Forecast: 52.0 – Previous: 52.7.

• 10:00 AM ET – ISM Manufacturing New Orders – Forecast: not shown – Previous: 55.3.

The ISM headline will give traders another reading on manufacturing growth, but the details could carry just as much weight. Prices paid will help frame the inflation discussion, while employment and new orders will provide a check on hiring and underlying demand.

A stronger headline accompanied by persistent price pressure would give traders a different message from one supported by improving orders and easing costs. Watch the components before drawing a conclusion from the headline alone.

The latest selloff has dragged gold price back towards the $3,900 mark, leaving buyers in a rather difficult situation. The question now is whether this where they finally draw the line or are we about to witness a much deeper correction?

The plunge on Friday saw gold break below the $4,000 mark as broader market selling and liquidity pressures added to the pain. The modest bounce today offers some relief but I wouldn't be celebrating just yet. The weekly chart tells a much more worrying story.

Gold is now flirting with a crucial support level from the 100-week moving average (red line), seen at $3,882 currently. That is the key line in the sand on the charts, with the precious metal not having properly challenged that technical level since 2023.

That's a remarkably long time for such an important level to go untested and it speaks a lot to the bullish run we have seen in gold over the past few years.

For the better part of the last three years, gold has enjoyed the luxury of an almost relentless uptrend. Buyers have been happy to pile in on dips, with the longer-term technical picture offering plenty of reassurance. But now, that comfort is starting to disappear.

The recent sequence of lower highs is already suggesting that sellers are gaining the upper hand. And if the 100-week moving average gives way, I fear that could open the door to a much more painful correction.

The next major support region sits around $3,500, with the 200-week moving average (blue line) closer to $3,020 potentially coming into focus if selling pressure intensifies.

Now of course, a bounce from the moving average could still breathe some life into gold's battered outlook. However, buyers would ideally need to reclaim $4,000 first before turning their attention back towards $4,200 next.

But for now, I think the bigger question isn't whether gold can bounce. It is more about whether buyers can still defend the longer-term uptrend that they've grown so accustomed to. After all, even the strongest bull markets need to prove themselves every once in a while. And this is just that.

The weakness is concentrated in technology, with Nasdaq futures down 785 points and S&P futures down 84 points, while Dow futures are holding a modest 15-point gain. That divergence matters. Technology is leading the pressure, while the Dow is showing greater resilience.

Elsewhere, the U.S. dollar is mostly lower and Treasury yields are falling across the curve. Crude oil, however, is moving higher despite President Trump’s optimistic comments about an end to the Iran war. The combination leaves traders balancing weaker technology sentiment against an energy market that continues to signal concern.

Amazon and Intel deepen the technology selloff

Amazon missed expectations for both earnings and revenue. Intel beat adjusted EPS estimates but missed revenue expectations, and its shares are suffering a much larger decline.

The broader question for investors remains: Are the earnings and future cash flows strong enough to justify the spending and valuations associated with AI?

An earnings beat alone does not guarantee a positive stock reaction. Investors also assess guidance, margins, capital spending and how much good news was already reflected in the share price. Sandisk’s decline despite beating both supplied estimates illustrates that distinction.

The earnings comparisons and early share reactions are currently showing:

• Intel: Adjusted EPS $0.52 vs $0.41 (BEAT); revenue $16.50 billion vs $16.60 billion (MISS). Shares down 25.70%.

• Amazon: EPS $1.89 vs $1.97 (MISS); revenue $201.90 billion vs $202.20 billion (MISS). Shares down 6.68%.

• Gilead Sciences: Adjusted EPS $2.55 vs $2.19 (BEAT); revenue $8.30 billion vs $7.80 billion (BEAT). Shares up 4.41%.

• Sandisk: Adjusted EPS $49.51 vs $46.20 (BEAT); revenue $11.031 billion vs $10.639 billion (BEAT). Shares down 8.20%.

• Starbucks: Adjusted EPS $0.80 vs $0.72 (BEAT); revenue $9.10 billion vs $9.22 billion (MISS). Shares up 0.30%.

• Pinterest: Revenue $1.17 billion vs $1.21 billion (MISS). Shares down 8.18%.

U.S. stock-index futures:

• Dow industrial average futures: Up 15 points.

• S&P 500 futures: Down 84 points.

• Nasdaq 100 futures: Down 785 points.

ECB officials: Yesterday’s hold leaves further hikes in play

The morning after the ECB left rates unchanged, officials are reinforcing the message that the inflation battle is unfinished. The common thread is a willingness to tighten further, with differences over how quickly action may be needed and how much tightening financial markets are already delivering.

Martin Kocher — a conditional warning about further tightening

Kocher said inflation risks have clearly increased and that a monetary policy response will be necessary if conditions do not improve soon. His comments suggest limited patience with persistent inflation pressure, while acknowledging the risks of acting prematurely.

The message for traders: yesterday’s unchanged decision should not be interpreted as confidence that inflation is under control.

Fabio Panetta — further hikes may be needed, but bond yields matter

Panetta said more rate increases may be necessary and warned that the increase in core inflation could become more pronounced early next year. However, he also stressed that the ECB must consider the recent rise in longer-term bond yields when calibrating policy.

Higher market borrowing costs can restrain demand without an additional ECB hike. Panetta also left room to adjust policy promptly if international conditions improve or financial tensions slow inflation.

His message is conditional: further tightening remains possible, but the ECB must assess how much restraint is already working through the economy.

Joachim Nagel — ready to act, with limited second-round effects so far

Nagel said policymakers would act decisively if needed, while noting that significant second-round effects have not appeared thus far.

That distinction matters. An energy-price shock can lift headline inflation directly. The greater concern is whether businesses and workers respond in ways that embed higher inflation in broader prices and wages.

The overall ECB message: The hold preserves flexibility, but further hikes remain an option. Persistent core inflation would strengthen the case for action, while higher bond yields and an improvement in the energy outlook could reduce the need for additional tightening.

Trump talks up an end to the Iran war, but oil moves higher (and the stocks are tumbling ahead of the election next week)

President Trump said in an interview this morning that the Iran war would end very soon, “one way or another,” and that gasoline prices would decline.

Separately, in a Truth Social post, he asserted that inflation is way down under his administration and that incomes for people and companies are higher. Those are the president’s claims; traders will continue to judge the inflation outlook through incoming data and energy prices.

The attached Al Arabiya report, citing sources, says the U.S. has informed mediators that Iran abandoning its nuclear programme is the basis for negotiations. Mediators are reportedly discussing access for inspectors to Iran’s nuclear sites in exchange for the release of some frozen funds.

That points to diplomatic discussions, but it does not establish an agreement. The gap between discussing terms and securing an enforceable settlement remains important for markets.

For now, crude is moving in the opposite direction to the president’s anticipated price relief. WTI is at $104.13, up $2.13 or 2.09%. The price action suggests traders still require evidence of an improvement in the supply and security outlook.

U.S. dollar lower against most major currencies

The dollar is lower against six of the seven major currencies in the snapshot, with the Australian dollar unchanged.

The Swiss franc is the strongest against the dollar, followed by the Japanese yen and British pound. The Australian dollar is the weakest performer within this group, holding flat.

• EURUSD:1.1194, up 0.14%.

• USDJPY:157.03, down 0.42%.

• GBPUSD:1.3426, up 0.38%.

• USDCHF:0.8205, down 0.45%.

• USDCAD:1.3956, down 0.23%.

• AUDUSD:0.7027, unchanged.

• NZDUSD:0.5645, up 0.21%.

The gains in the franc and yen are consistent with defensive positioning, although the dollar’s broader retreat shows that the currency moves extend beyond those two traditional havens.

Currency ranges: USDJPY is testing the bottom

The supplied session ranges, from low to high, are:

• EURUSD:1.1174–1.1214 — 40 pips. The 1-month average 67 pips

• USDJPY:157.00–157.89 — 89 pips.  The 1-month average 72 pips.

• GBPUSD:1.3375–1.3433 — 58 pips. The 1-month average 84 pips

• USDCHF:0.8195–0.8247 — 52 pips.. The 1 month average  52 pips too

• USDCAD:1.3951–1.3992 — 41 pips.The 1 month average 63 pips. 

• AUDUSD:0.7018–0.7043 — 25 pips. The 1 month average 43 pips

• NZDUSD:0.5625–0.5651 — 26 pips. The 1 month average 44 pips. 

USDJPY is trading just above its session low, while GBPUSD is close to its high. Those locations make the respective extremes immediate reference points for a continuation or a failed break.

Treasury yields fall, led by the intermediate maturities

U.S. yields are lower across the curve, with the five-year yield down approximately 10 basis points. Slower economy will do that. 

• 2-year:4.5689%, down 8.71 basis points.

• 5-year:4.7021%, down 9.99 basis points.

• 10-year:4.9083%, down 8.07 basis points.

• 30-year:5.2815%, down 4.75 basis points.

Falling yields can provide some valuation support for equities, but that support is being overwhelmed in technology by the earnings reaction. For currencies, lower U.S. yields are also consistent with the dollar’s softer tone.

European 10-year yields are mixed: Germany is at 3.327%, France at 4.951%, the UK at 5.276%, Spain at 3.950% and Italy at 4.495%. France stands out with its yield rising while the others shown are lower.

European stocks mostly lower

• Germany’s DAX:25,838.35, down 0.77%.

• France’s CAC 40:7,969.03, down 0.01%.

• UK’s FTSE 100:10,734.24, up 0.11%.

• Spain’s IBEX:18,750.20, down 0.57%.

• Euro Stoxx 50:18,692.19, down 0.88%.

• Italy’s FTSE MIB:49,463.93, down 1.08%.

Oil rises while metals and Bitcoin retreat

The commodity snapshot shows a clear divergence between energy and metals. Gold is back below the $4000 level.  Bitcoin is below the $80000 level.

• WTI crude oil:$104.13, up $2.13 or 2.09%.

• Spot gold:$3,967.94, down approximately $52.63 or 1.31%.

• Silver:$50.2332, down 3.66%.

• Copper:$6.5170, down 1.29%.

• Bitcoin:$77,335, down $458 or 0.59%.

Gold’s decline despite lower Treasury yields and a softer dollar shows why traders cannot rely on one relationship alone. The price action remains the final barometer.

North American calendar: Employment costs and Canadian growth

The main scheduled releases are:

• 8:30 AM ET — U.S. Employment Cost Index, Q3 — Forecast: +0.8% q/q — Previous: +0.9%.

• 8:30 AM ET — Canadian GDP, August — Forecast: +0.2% m/m — Previous: 0.0%.

• 9:45 AM ET — Chicago PMI, October — Previous: 58.8.

The Employment Cost Index is particularly relevant to the question of persistent inflation. A stronger reading would suggest compensation pressures remain firm, while a softer result would offer some reassurance on labor costs. Canadian GDP will provide the next domestic growth test for the Canadian dollar.

Today is also the final trading day of October. Month-end flows could complicate intraday moves alongside earnings, economic data and geopolitical headlines.

The distinction between those two moving averages is important. The break below the 100-hour moving average shifted the near-term bias toward the sellers. However, reaching the 200-hour moving average introduces another decision point. Sellers have reached a downside target. To strengthen their control, they now need to break below that target and stay below it.

For buyers, the same level offers an opportunity to define and limit risk.

The buyer’s perspective: Define risk before entry

Why would a buyer step in when the price is falling? Because a technical trade does not require certainty that the market has bottomed. It requires a reason to enter, a clear point at which the trade idea is wrong, and enough potential reward to justify the risk.

A buyer leaning against the 200-hour moving average near 0.8257 is looking for that level to attract support. If the price holds above it and begins to recover, the buyer benefits from entering close to support. If the price breaks below and selling gathers momentum, the reason for the trade weakens, giving the buyer a nearby reference point for exiting.

That is an important trading lesson: the moving average does not guarantee a bounce. It provides a level around which a trader can build a plan. Risk can be defined before entry, limited through an exit strategy, and accepted as part of the trade.

The seller’s perspective: Turn an opinion into a technical plan

The bearish trader can use that same moving average from the opposite perspective.

If you expect the USDCHF to continue lower, the 200-hour moving average becomes a level the price needs to get to, get through, and stay below. A bearish opinion alone does not confirm that sellers are in control. The price action around support provides evidence of whether other traders agree.

A sustained break below 0.8257, followed by an inability to reclaim the moving average, would suggest buyers are losing that battle. If a subsequent rebound stalls against the moving average from below, former support could become resistance. That would give sellers another reference point for managing risk.

Conversely, a brief dip below the moving average followed by a quick recovery would raise the possibility of a failed break. Sellers looking for downside follow-through could become vulnerable if the market cannot remain below support.

Downside targets: What comes after a break?

On a sustained break lower, the next downside target comes at the 38.2% retracement at 0.8224. That level sits near the upper boundary of a swing area extending down to 0.82162.

Together, those levels form another support zone where traders would assess whether the selling can continue. Reaching the zone would satisfy another downside objective. Breaking through it—and staying below—would strengthen the bearish case further.

A break below that zone would open the door toward last week’s low at 0.81905.

The recovery scenario: What buyers need to reclaim

If the 200-hour moving average holds, buyers would first look for a recovery toward the 100-hour moving average at 0.82758.

Holding support would be an initial positive, but reclaiming that higher moving average would provide stronger evidence that buyers are regaining control. The move would also call into question the earlier downside break, increasing the potential for sellers to cover positions.

Staying above the 100-hour moving average would put yesterday’s high at 0.8312 back in focus.

The key lesson: Let the price action guide the trade

For now, 0.8257 is the key barometer. Buyers can use it to define risk on a support trade. Sellers need a sustained break below it to reinforce the bearish bias.

The value of the technical level is that it gives both sides a reference point. Traders can measure whether the market is supporting their position and identify when the evidence changes.

Have an opinion, but build the trade around a level that defines your risk. Then let the price action determine whether the trade deserves to stay open.

For EURUSD, the decision and press conference produced volatile trading. An initial decline took the price below the double bottom near 1.11135, established on October 14 and revisited yesterday. However, sellers could not sustain the break. After reaching 1.1106, the pair reversed higher and rebounded toward 1.1155.

That recovery brought the price into a familiar swing area, with the falling 100-hour moving average just above. The failed break lower gives buyers an opportunity, but getting through resistance is the next requirement.

A hawkish hold keeps the next meeting in focus

Lagarde stressed that holding rates at this meeting does not rule out an increase at the next. Underlying inflation remains a key policy barometer, while elevated energy prices and geopolitical developments continue to complicate the outlook.

The distinction matters. A central bank can leave rates unchanged while still delivering a hawkish message if its guidance keeps further tightening in play. Markets respond to changes in the expected path of rates, as well as the decision announced that day.

Underlying inflation helps policymakers assess how persistent price pressures are beneath volatile headline components. Higher energy costs can lift headline inflation directly, but the broader concern is whether those increases feed into other prices, wages and inflation expectations.

The ECB’s message leaves room to gather more evidence while retaining the option to act.

Incoming data will shape the next decision

On growth, the ECB will assess incoming GDP figures alongside wages, unemployment and November PMIs to judge how the economy is absorbing tighter financing conditions. Updated staff projections and two additional inflation reports will also help shape the next decision.

Those releases matter because monetary policy works with a lag. Higher borrowing costs gradually influence household spending, business investment and demand. Policymakers must judge whether that restraint is sufficient to bring inflation down, or whether persistent price pressures require another increase.

For traders, this keeps the focus on how the data change expectations. Persistent inflation alongside resilient activity could strengthen the case for further tightening. Softer inflation and weaker growth could support another period of waiting.

The break below 1.11135 fails to attract follow-through

Technically, the initial move below 1.11135 gave sellers an opportunity to extend the decline (see chart above). That level had attracted buyers twice, making it an identifiable floor and a logical downside barometer.

However, the move to 1.1106 quickly reversed.

A support break needs follow-through to reinforce the bearish signal. When the price moves below a well-defined floor and then quickly recovers above it, the failure can encourage short covering and fresh buying. Traders who sold the break may find themselves holding positions below a reclaimed support level.

That does not automatically establish a lasting bottom. It does show that sellers failed to maintain control below the old floor. Buyers now need to build on that rejection by breaking resistance above.

Buyers face resistance at 1.1152–1.11616

The rebound toward 1.1155 carried EURUSD into the swing area between 1.1152 and 1.11602. Just above that zone sits the falling 100-hour moving average at 1.11616.

Together, those levels create the first important resistance hurdle.

Swing areas identify prices where the market has previously changed direction or found support and resistance. Moving averages provide another reference for judging momentum and defining risk. When those references sit close together, they create a useful decision zone for buyers and sellers.

A move above—and sustained trading above—1.11616 would strengthen the buyers’ position. A brief spike through resistance followed by a reversal would carry less weight.

Above that hurdle, the next upside targets are:

• 1.11845: The former floor from October 15 through October 26.

• 1.11913: The falling 200-hour moving average.

The old floor matters because broken support can become resistance when approached from below. Clearing it, followed by the 200-hour moving average, would provide further evidence that buyers are gaining control.

A rejection would put the old floor back in play

If the swing area and 100-hour moving average cap the recovery, the rebound would remain vulnerable. Attention would return to 1.11130–1.11135, followed by the session low at 1.1106.

A renewed break below the former double bottom would give sellers another opportunity. Getting below—and staying below—1.1106 would then be needed to extend the downside.

For now, buyers have rejected the lows, while sellers retain resistance overhead. The next test is whether EURUSD can turn its failed break lower into a sustained break higher through 1.1152–1.11616.

Buyers rejected the break lower, but resistance at 1.1152–1.11616 remains the next hurdle.

The technical ladder highlights the levels that will help determine whether the EURUSD rebound can extend or sellers regain control.

Resistance, from highest to lowest:

• 1.11913 — Falling 200-hour moving average: A higher hurdle that buyers would need to clear to strengthen the bullish bias.

• 1.11845 — Former floor from October 15–26: Previously support, this level becomes potential resistance when approached from below.

• 1.11616 — Falling 100-hour moving average: A key barometer for the recovery. Getting above and staying above would give buyers a stronger foothold.

• 1.1152–1.11602 — Swing resistance area: The rebound high near 1.1155 reached inside this zone, making it the immediate battleground.

Support, from highest to lowest:

• 1.11130–1.11135 — Reclaimed support near the prior double bottom: Holding above this area would help preserve the failed-break recovery. Falling back below would weaken that argument.

• 1.1106 — Session low: Sellers would need a sustained break below this level to confirm a fresh downside extension.

Trading lesson: These levels provide places to assess the price action and define risk. Sellers leaning against resistance have a clear reference for when their bearish view starts to weaken. Buyers looking for a breakout need sustained trading above resistance, followed ideally by that area holding as support on a retest.

For now, 1.1152–1.11616 is the immediate decision zone. Clearing it opens the door toward 1.11845 and 1.11913. A rejection keeps the reclaimed floor near 1.11135 in focus.

The USDCAD fell to a low of 1.39676 last Friday, stalling just above a swing area between 1.3948 and 1.3963 that stretches back to late March 2025. Buyers leaned against that area last week, and they have done the same thing today.

Today’s low reached 1.3971, just above Friday’s low and the underlying swing area. The repeated defense gives buyers a level to lean against and define their risk. However, holding support is only part of the battle. They also need to push through resistance.

The 1.4000 level caps the recovery

On the topside, sellers have been leaning near the natural resistance level at 1.4000. That leaves the pair confined to a narrow trading range today, with room to roam if buyers or sellers can force a sustained break.

A move above 1.4000 would have traders looking toward a series of moving-average hurdles:

• 1.4018: The 100-hour moving average.

• 1.40353: The 200-hour moving average.

• 1.40458: The 100-day moving average.

Those moving averages were broken to the downside earlier this week and now act as barometers for a recovery. Getting above each would give buyers another technical victory. Moving above—and staying above—all three would strengthen their control.

Beyond those levels, yesterday’s double top near 1.4068 marks the next hurdle. That level also sits at the bottom of another swing area extending to 1.40801. Sellers defended it twice yesterday, reinforcing its importance.

A break below support would put the 200-day moving average in play

For sellers, the first step is to break below today’s low at 1.3971 and Friday’s low at 1.39676. That would bring the 1.3948–1.3963 swing area into focus.

Getting below 1.3948 would be the more decisive technical break. It would take the price through the full support area and open the door for a move toward the 200-day moving average at 1.3885.

Until that support gives way, sellers still face the risk of another bounce from familiar levels.

The broader range remains the trading roadmap

Stepping back, the USDCAD has largely consolidated between 1.3967 and 1.4080 since October 19. Multiple swing highs and lows have reinforced the extremes, while the moving averages in between continue to help define the bias.

Ultimately, the price needs to break outside that broader range—and sustain the break—to give traders a clearer directional signal.

In the video above, I outline those levels and the steps buyers or sellers need to take to gain control. For now, support near 1.3970 and resistance at 1.4000 define the immediate battle, with the broader range providing the roadmap beyond.

Him him him

Did Chair Warsh give the economy more room to grow, or simply give the Fed more time before another rate hike? Are massive AI investments generating sufficient returns? And will today’s growth and inflation reports support the market’s expectations for additional tightening?

The early price action is mixed. Treasury yields are lower across the curve, the dollar is modestly higher against some currencies and lower against others, and U.S. equity futures are under pressure. The Nasdaq is leading the decline as a sharp premarket fall in Alphabet overshadows stronger results from Microsoft.

Warsh’s message: Healthy growth, elevated inflation and time to assess

The Fed held its target range at 3.75%–4.00%, with a 10–2 vote. Warsh described an economy with healthy consumer spending, strong business investment and positive employment conditions. He indicated that third-quarter growth was likely above 3%. Inflation, however, remains too high, and renewed increases in energy prices raise the risk that price pressures could spread more broadly.

Warsh also suggested that September’s tightening is beginning to work. Some households and businesses face tighter credit conditions, although he stopped short of describing overall financial conditions as tight. His message was to gather more information before deciding the next step. Another hike remains possible, but he did not commit to a December move. See InvestingLive’s coverage of Warsh’s press conference.

For the economy, my takeaway is that the Fed sees enough strength to keep its attention on inflation. There was little indication of an urgent need to support growth through lower rates.

For markets, the distinction matters. A Fed willing to wait can provide some relief from immediate tightening concerns. But persistent inflation and healthy demand would keep borrowing costs elevated and make it harder to justify increasingly expensive equity valuations.

Yesterday’s reaction also showed that markets can interpret the same decision differently across maturities. From just before the announcement through the end of the press conference, the dollar fell, shorter-term yields declined and longer-term yields rose. That steepening showed that relief at the front end did not extend across the entire Treasury curve. This morning, longer-term yields are also moving lower.

Alphabet and Microsoft deliver contrasting AI messages

Alphabet is the main source of pressure on technology sentiment, with shares down more than 11% in premarket trading.

The company reported EPS of $2.12 versus $3.03 expected — MISS, and revenue of $127.6 billion versus $127.91 billion expected — MISS. Google Cloud was a bright spot, but Search and YouTube advertising revenue fell short of expectations.

The concern goes beyond the headline miss. Advertising revenue grew at its slowest pace in five quarters, while management said AI Mode searches were being monetized more slowly than traditional searches. At the same time, capital expenditures climbed to approximately $51.4 billion, up about $6.5 billion from the previous quarter, and free cash flow moved deeper into negative territory.

Investors are being asked to fund a substantial investment cycle while waiting for clearer evidence of the returns. Slower monetization makes that wait more uncomfortable.

Microsoft delivered a stronger message. Adjusted EPS of $4.89 BEAT expectations, while revenue of $92.28 billion also BEAT, increasing 19% from a year earlier. Azure growth of 48% offered evidence that demand for cloud and AI services continues to expand strongly.

Microsoft shares are higher in premarket trading (+1.5%), although that strength has not been enough to offset the broader technology weakness. The company’s reported buyout program—with roughly 60,000 employees potentially eligible—also puts efficiency and costs alongside growth in the discussion.

The broader lesson is that investors are becoming more selective. Spending on AI infrastructure needs to translate into revenue, margins and cash flow. Microsoft’s report provided more encouragement on that front. Alphabet’s raised more questions.

U.S. stock futures

The early indications from futures trading point to a lower opening:

• Dow futures: Down 41 points.

• S&P 500 futures: Down 15.6 points.

• Nasdaq 100 futures: Down 300 points.

The larger Nasdaq decline highlights the pressure on technology shares rather than an equally sized retreat across the major indices.

This morning’s earnings: Mostly beats outside technology

The earnings releases in the morning snapshot show a generally stronger set of headline results:

• Altria: EPS $1.52 versus $1.51 — BEAT; revenue $5.44 billion versus $5.31 billion — BEAT. The company increased its buyback authorization by $1 billion and raised full-year earnings guidance.  Up 2.25%

• Bristol Myers Squibb: Adjusted EPS $1.35 versus $1.10 — BEAT; revenue $13.07 billion versus $12.72 billion — BEAT. Up 2.20%

• Eli Lilly: Adjusted EPS $7.48 versus $5.68 — BEAT; revenue $24.4 billion versus $22.58 billion — BEAT. Mounjaro revenue of $10.7 billion and Zepbound revenue of $5.3 billion also exceeded expectations. Full-year adjusted EPS guidance rose to $35–$36 from $35–$35.50. +4.20%

• Merck: Adjusted EPS $2.49 versus $2.09 — BEAT; revenue $18.1 billion versus $17.34 billion — BEAT. +2.40%

• Caterpillar: Adjusted EPS $7.20 versus $7.06 — BEAT; revenue $20.7 billion versus $20.76 billion — MISS. Total combined retail sales increased 22%, compared with 25% previously. -9.46%

After the close, Amazon and Intel provide the next major tests. Amazon’s AWS performance, AI spending and retail profitability will be important after the divergent Microsoft and Alphabet reports. Intel’s results and guidance will offer another read on semiconductor demand and its manufacturing turnaround.

The dollar is mixed; CAD leads and AUD lags

The dollar’s largest gain in the supplied snapshot is against the Australian dollar, while its largest decline is against the Canadian dollar in what is a mixed open for the US greenback.

• EURUSD: 1.1148, down 0.04%.

• GBPUSD: 1.3330, up 0.04%.

• USDJPY: 157.93, up 0.07%.

• USDCHF: 0.8278, down 0.01%.

• USDCAD: 1.3974, down 0.14%.

• AUDUSD: 0.7040, down 0.18%.

• NZDUSD: 0.5617, down 0.12%.

The Canadian dollar is outperforming even with crude oil lower. The Australian and New Zealand dollars are weaker, while the euro, pound and Swiss franc show relatively small changes against the USD.

That leaves a mixed dollar backdrop ahead of the U.S. data.

Currency ranges: Most pairs retain room to extend

Using the highs and lows in the price snapshot and the supplied average ranges over the last 22 trading days (around a month) shows:

• EURUSD: 1.1126–1.1161 — 35 pips, approximately 53% of its 66-pip average.

• GBPUSD: 1.3297–1.3336 — 39 pips, approximately 55% of its 71-pip average.

• USDJPY: 157.61–158.06 — 45 pips, approximately 54% of its 84-pip average.

• USDCHF: 0.8272–0.8297 — 25 pips, 50% of its 50-pip average.

• USDCAD: 1.3971–1.4002 — 31 pips, approximately 48% of its 65-pip average.

• AUDUSD: 0.7031–0.7068 — 37 pips, approximately 82% of its 45-pip average.

• NZDUSD: 0.5609–0.5636 — 27 pips, approximately 64% of its 42-pip average.

USDCAD has completed the smallest proportion of its normal range, although several pairs are clustered near half their averages. There is meaningful room for an extension if the economic releases or a technical break provide the catalyst.

AUDUSD has already completed more of its typical range than the other pairs. That does not prevent further movement, but it gives traders different context when considering whether to chase an extension.

Treasury yields retreat

Treasury yields are lower across the curve in the morning snapshot:

• 2-year: 4.6912%, down 4.38 basis points.

• 5-year: 4.8282%, down 4.28 basis points.

• 10-year: 5.0031%, down 4.19 basis points.

• 30-year: 5.3318%, down 2.92 basis points.

The 10-year yield is back near 5%, but the decline has not been enough to lift technology futures. Earnings and the returns on AI investment are competing with the interest-rate story this morning.

European stocks are mostly higher

Europe’s major markets show a more constructive picture, although Spain and Italy are lower:

• Germany’s DAX: 25,949.33, up 245.30 points or 0.95%.

• France’s CAC 40: 7,959.57, up 72.60 points or 0.92%.

• UK FTSE 100: 10,735.72, up 41.23 points or 0.39%.

• Spain’s IBEX 35: 18,816.30, down 67.20 points or 0.36%.

• Italy’s FTSE MIB: 49,764.22, down 60.09 points or 0.12%.

The ECB decision is another focus, with the central bank expected to leave rates unchanged. Traders will watch its assessment of energy-driven inflation, growth risks and the potential for additional tightening.

Oil falls, but Iran headlines keep the risk alive

Crude oil is trading at $101.43, down $1.35 or 1.31%.

The decline comes despite a Semafor report that President Trump is seriously considering renewed military strikes against Iran shortly after the U.S. midterms if diplomacy fails. The report also said negotiations over a temporary peace agreement remain underway.

That leaves oil exposed to headlines in both directions. Progress toward an agreement could ease supply concerns. A breakdown in diplomacy could quickly bring those concerns back into the price.

Elsewhere in the markets:

• Gold: $4,031.79, down $35.11 or 0.86%.

• Silver: $52.8130, down $1.1270 or 2.09%.

• Copper: $6.5915, down $0.0800 or 1.20%.

• Bitcoin: $80,044, down $1,206 or 1.48%.

Today’s calendar immediately tests the Fed’s outlook

The major U.S. releases arrive together at 8:30 AM ET:

• Advance Q3 GDP: Forecast 3.2% annualized; previous 2.2%. The last guesstimate from the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model forecast growth at 3.3%.  

• September headline PCE: Forecast 0.5% m/m; previous 0.3%.

• September headline PCE: Forecast 3.6% y/y; previous 3.4%.

• September core PCE: Forecast 0.3% m/m; previous 0.2%.

• September core PCE: Forecast 3.1% y/y; previous 3.0%.

• Initial jobless claims: Forecast 198K; previous 194K.

• Continuing claims: Forecast 1,720K; previous 1,728K.

Personal income and spending are also due at 8:30 AM ET, with consumption expected to rise 0.5%. The InvestingLive PCE preview outlines the inflation expectations and the implications for December pricing.

The combination matters. Firm growth alongside elevated inflation would support the case for maintaining a tightening bias. Softer inflation with resilient growth would give the Fed more room to assess the impact of September’s hike.

For traders, the challenge will be reading the reports together. A strong GDP headline may attract the initial reaction, but inflation, spending and claims could determine whether that move holds.

EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD: The levels to watch

In the morning video above, I take a look at the three major currency pairs—EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD—from a technical perspective. For each pair, I outline the bias, the risk-defining levels and the targets that would give either the buyers or sellers more control.

Ahead of that analysis, the session extremes provide the immediate reference points:

EURUSD is trading near 1.1148, between 1.1126 and 1.1161. A break above the session high would give buyers more room to extend. A break below the low would give sellers the stronger hand. Within that range, neither side has established a decisive break.

USDJPY is near 157.93, toward the upper end of its 157.61–158.06 range. Buyers need to get above and stay above 158.06 to extend the move. A failure there keeps the pair confined, with 157.61 the lower boundary sellers would need to break.

GBPUSD is near 1.3330, just below the 1.3336 session high. Buyers have pushed the price toward the upper extreme, but they still need a sustained break to increase control. The session low at 1.3297 remains the downside reference.

With several major reports arriving at the same time, the first move may be difficult to interpret. The price action after the release—and whether a break can hold—will help define which side has control and where risk can be limited.

The Fed was a bit of a non-event, failing to offer much to markets in the grand scheme of things. Meanwhile, big tech earnings were mixed but tech shares are lower at the balance in after-hours trading. With all that, the bond market is not really budging as well with 10-year Treasury yields still stuck near 5%. As such, gold is finding little reason to go anywhere even with the Fed decision behind us and AI spending concerns resurfacing.

The hourly chart also exemplifies how uninspiring the key risk events overnight have been, with a bit of a near-term tussle starting to take shape for gold.

As we get into the latter stages of this week, gold is starting to show a distinctive bounce between its key hourly moving averages.

The 100-hour moving average (red line) near $4,026 continues to offer some near-term support, having been tested several times since yesterday. Meanwhile, the 200-hour moving average (blue line) near $4,075 is keeping a lid on any meaningful recovery. Buyers tried their luck in the aftermath of the Fed meeting but were swiftly turned away.

While we are seeing a near-term battle ensue, the daily chart continues to paint a less encouraging picture for gold buyers though.

The continued drop sine August is still very much holding, with price keeping well below both its key daily moving averages. The recent break below $4,100 last week has only reinforced the downside momentum, with the $4,000 mark being tested in the past few days.

For now, the figure level remains the key line in the sand for gold. A firm break below that risks exposing the June to July lows around the region of $3,950-60, potentially setting up another leg lower.

On the flip side, buyers will first need to reclaim 200-hour moving average at $4,075 before looking to the $4,100 level. And that is before even thinking about a push towards the next major hurdle around $4,200-20, with the 100-day moving average (red line) starting to converge there at $4,217 currently.

Now, all of this is not to say that I would rule out a technical bounce from here even though sellers are still keeping in control for the most part. But until buyers can start reclaiming the key resistance levels highlighted, it still feels like they have more to prove than the sellers actually do. So, that pretty much underscores the balance of risks for gold price at the moment.

The AUDUSD initiallly moved to the upside on the fundamental news. However after reaching a key technical MA target, the momentum higher reversed back lower and toward a downside MA target.  That has helped set the guardrails for traders from a technical perspective. In the video above, I show the key levels in play and explain why.  

What is the price action and technical tools telling traders?

The AUDUSD is trading between two technical levels that are giving buyers and sellers something to lean against.

On the topside, the 200-day moving average at 0.70549 stalled the rally. Sellers defended that longer-term barometer and pushed the price lower. However, the subsequent decline also found a limit, with the 100-hour moving average near 0.7025 attracting support.

Buyers had their shot above. Sellers had their shot below. Neither side has been able to move beyond the opposing moving average and take more control.

What do buyers need to do?

Holding above the 100-hour MA near 0.7025 keeps buyers in the short-term battle. However, holding support is only part of the equation. They also need to push back toward the 200-day MA at 0.70549, get above it and stay above it.

Until that happens, the longer-term moving average remains a ceiling.

What do sellers need to do?

For sellers, the next step is to break below the 100-hour MA near 0.7025 and stay below it. That would remove the support that stalled the decline and shift the short-term bias more in their favor.

A break that quickly reverses back above the moving average would weaken that bearish signal.

The trading lesson

The moving averages are useful because they help define risk and measure control. Buyers can lean against support. Sellers can lean against resistance. When either boundary breaks, traders need to see whether the price can stay beyond it.

For now, the roadmap is straightforward: above 0.70549 gives buyers more control; below 0.7025 gives sellers more control. Between those levels, the ping-pong battle continues.

The RBNZ held its cash rate at 2.75% on October 28, surprising markets that had heavily priced in a 25-basis-point hike to 3.00%. The probability of a hike ahead of the decision was estimated near 88%, with some reports suggesting an increase was almost fully priced.

Despite the surprise hold, the decision carried a hawkish bias:

• A narrow 4–3 vote: Three members favored raising the cash rate to 3.00%.

• Further tightening remains likely: All members agreed that higher rates would probably be needed, depending on the economic outlook.

• Inflation remains a concern: Annual CPI eased to 3.7%, but is projected to rise to 4.4% in Q4, largely because of fuel costs. Core inflation and broader price pressures remain elevated.

• An uneven recovery supports patience: Exports remain strong, but household spending and domestic demand are subdued.

Hourly chart: Buyers defend support, but resistance looms

The NZDUSD fell sharply after the announcement, dropping from around 0.5682 to 0.55773, before rebounding to 0.56181.

On the hourly chart above, the decline briefly undercut the 0.55791 swing level, defined by lows on October 5, 8 and 13. However, sellers could not sustain the break, and the October 14 cycle low at 0.55644 remained intact. That failed break below 0.55791 helped give buyers a foothold and prompted the bounce.

The rebound, however, has more work to do before buyers can claim greater control. The 0.56256–0.56330 swing area is the next key upside hurdle. A move above that area—and the ability to stay above it—would give buyers additional confidence.

Staying below keeps sellers in control, with 0.55791–0.55773 and then 0.55644 remaining the downside targets.

Five-minute chart: Four rallies stall at the same retracement level

The five-minute chart reinforces the bearish bias.

After a sharp trend move lower, I like to measure how much of the decline the market can retrace. The 38.2%–50% correction zone provides a useful barometer: if buyers cannot push the price above that zone, the rebound remains limited and sellers retain control.

So far, four separate rebound attempts have found sellers near the 38.2% retracement at 0.56181. That repeated resistance gives traders a clearly defined level to watch—and a close risk level for sellers leaning against it.

Above that, the 50% midpoint at 0.56308 falls inside the hourly swing area at 0.56256–0.56330, reinforcing the importance of that resistance zone.

Buyers vs. sellers: What would shift control?

For now, buyers have defended the lows, but sellers continue to cap the recovery.

A break above 0.56181 would be the first step toward easing the immediate downside pressure. Getting above—and staying above—the 0.56256–0.56330 resistance area would provide stronger evidence that buyers are taking back control.

Until then, the bounce remains a correction within the sharp move lower. A move back below 0.55791–0.55773 would put the 0.55644 cycle low back in focus.

Video: Key NZDUSD levels and trading risks

In the video above, I walk through the hourly and five-minute charts, highlighting the levels that define risk and what buyers need to do to shift the technical bias.

The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 AM ET, with expectations leaning toward a 25-basis-point increase to 2.50% from 2.25%. However, economists remain divided: 19 of 34 economists surveyed by Reuters forecast a hike, while money markets were pricing roughly a 77% probability of an increase ahead of the announcement.

The policy debate centers on whether higher energy prices will spread into broader inflation. September headline inflation rose to 3.1%, while core measures eased below 2%. That leaves policymakers weighing the risk of persistent price pressures against the economic cost of raising rates. RBC expects a hike but describes its conviction as low, arguing that the Bank could instead signal an increase at a subsequent meeting.

The accompanying Monetary Policy Report will provide updated forecasts and could be as important as the rate announcement itself. For USDCAD, the potential reaction depends on the guidance as well as the decision. A hike accompanied by a firm tightening bias could support the Canadian dollar and pressure USDCAD lower. A surprise hold or cautious guidance could give USDCAD buyers an opening.

Moving averages define the buyers-versus-sellers battle

USDCAD is trading above its 100-hour moving average at 1.4021, but below the 100-day moving average at 1.40458 and the 200-hour moving average at 1.40525.

Those levels provide the initial barometers through the decision. A sustained move above 1.40458–1.40525 would strengthen the bullish bias. A break below 1.4021 would give sellers more control. Between those boundaries, neither side has established a decisive advantage.

Downside targets: 1.3995, then last week’s low

A break below 1.4021 would shift attention toward minor support near 1.3995.

Below that, last week’s low at 1.3966 becomes the next reference point. That low stalled just above the 1.3948–1.3963 swing area, reinforcing its importance. Sellers would need to push through that zone to open the door for a deeper decline.

Upside targets: Buyers need to reclaim 1.40818

A sustained break above the moving-average resistance band would bring last Wednesday’s high and the broken 38.2% retracement at 1.40818 into focus.

Getting above and holding that hurdle would open the upside toward the 1.4110 swing level, followed by the higher swing area between 1.41297 and 1.4153.

Through the decision: Watch whether the break holds

The first move will need confirmation. A push above resistance that quickly reverses, or a break below support that snaps back, would signal a potential failed break.

For traders, the immediate roadmap is clear: bullish above 1.40525, bearish below 1.4021, with the ability to hold beyond those levels determining whether buyers or sellers can build momentum.

Treasury yields are higher, with the U.S. 10-year yield above 5%. Stock futures are mixed: the Dow is lower, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 point to modest gains. Oil is higher, while gold and silver are trading lower.

Overnight, the biggest currency move came from New Zealand. The RBNZ unexpectedly held its official cash rate at 2.75%, with the committee divided in a 4–3 vote. Governor Anna Breman subsequently indicated that additional increases remain likely, but the decision disappointed markets positioned for an immediate hike. Meanwhile, stronger Australian underlying inflation and hawkish comments from RBA Governor Michele Bullock reinforced expectations for further tightening. Those contrasting developments helped lift the Australian dollar and pressure the kiwi. See investingLive’s Asia-Pacific market wrap.

The Australian dollar leads; the New Zealand dollar lags

The Australian dollar is the strongest of the major currencies in the morning snapshot, while the New Zealand dollar is the weakest. From the U.S. dollar’s perspective, the greenback is higher against the kiwi, sterling and Swiss franc, but lower against the Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, euro and Japanese yen.

NZDUSD is down 1.27% at 0.5608, making it the clear outlier. By comparison, AUDUSD is up 0.14% at 0.7034, while USDCAD is down approximately 0.10% at 1.4034. EURUSD is up 0.07% at 1.1130, and USDJPY is down 0.03% at 157.89. GBPUSD is lower by 0.12% at 1.3287, while USDCHF is up 0.04% at 0.8293.

The broader dollar picture is therefore mixed. The sharp kiwi decline reflects a specific policy surprise, while the moves elsewhere remain relatively modest ahead of the North American events.

Currency ranges remain contained outside NZDUSD

The session highs and lows and the supplied average ranges:

• EURUSD: 1.1114 to 1.1132 — 18 pips, approximately 28% of its 65-pip average.

• USDJPY: 157.66 to 158.04 — 38 pips, approximately 45% of its 84-pip average.

• GBPUSD: 1.3273 to 1.3312 — 39 pips, approximately 55% of its 71-pip average.

• USDCHF: 0.8284 to 0.8313 — 29 pips, approximately 57% of its 51-pip average.

• USDCAD: 1.4034 to 1.4068 — 34 pips, approximately 54% of its 63-pip average.

• AUDUSD: 0.7024 to 0.7054 — 30 pips, approximately 65% of its 46-pip average.

• NZDUSD: 0.5585 to 0.5689 — 104 pips, approximately 231% of its 45-pip average.

EURUSD has the most room to roam relative to its normal daily activity. USDJPY is also relatively confined, having completed less than half its average range. That leaves scope for an extension if the central-bank news produces a sustained technical break.

NZDUSD has already exceeded twice its average range. That does not rule out additional movement, but traders should recognize that a substantial repricing has already occurred. Average ranges provide context; they do not establish a ceiling or guarantee that a quieter pair must move farther.

U.S. stock futures are mixed

• Dow industrial average futures: down 105 points.

• S&P 500 futures: up 9.5 points.

• Nasdaq 100 futures: up 103 points.

The opening indications show a modestly firmer tone in the S&P and Nasdaq, although the Dow is lagging. The important question is whether those gains hold and broaden once regular trading begins, with the Fed announcement and earnings still ahead.

Treasury yields move higher

The 2-year Treasury yield is 4.7577%, up 2.07 basis points, while the 5-year yield is 4.8675%, up 2.55 basis points. The 10-year yield is 5.0155%, up 2.25 basis points, and the 30-year yield is 5.3125%, up 0.75 basis point.

The larger increases are in the shorter and intermediate maturities. I will be watching whether those gains extend or reverse after the Fed. A dollar break accompanied by a sustained move in yields would provide more evidence of a broader repricing in policy expectations.

European yields are also higher. Germany’s 10-year yield is 3.365%, France’s is 4.953%, and the UK’s is 5.354%. Italy’s 10-year yield is up 3 basis points at 4.532%.

European stocks are mostly lower

• Germany’s DAX: up 0.04%.

• France’s CAC 40: down 0.12%.

• UK’s FTSE 100: down 0.25%.

• Spain’s IBEX 35: down approximately 1.37%.

• Italy’s FTSE MIB: down 0.01%.

Spain is the weakest of the supplied European benchmarks, while the German and Italian indices are little changed.

Oil rises; gold and silver retreat

U.S. crude oil is trading at $101.69, up $1.48, or 1.48%. Gold is lower by approximately $14.54 at $4,045.79, while silver is down 1.22% at $53.7421. Bitcoin is modestly higher at $81,097, up $286, or 0.35%.

Firmer oil keeps energy prices in focus ahead of the Fed’s inflation assessment. Gold is trading lower alongside higher Treasury yields, although the mixed dollar performance suggests caution in attributing its move to a single factor.

FOMC preview: A hold is expected, but the message matters

In his FOMC preview, “A hawkish hold as markets watch for signals about timing and extent of further tightening,” investingLive’s Giuseppe Dellamotta outlines a base case of unchanged rates at 3.75%–4.00%. His October 27 preview cited approximately 90% market pricing for a hold and an 80% probability of a December hike.

With no new economic projections or dot plot expected, attention shifts to the statement and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference. The key issue is how strongly the Fed reinforces the need for additional tightening. A more forceful inflation message could pressure risk assets, while a more neutral tone could allow a relief rally.

For traders, an expected decision can still produce an unexpected reaction. The market responds to the difference between the message delivered and the message already priced in. I will be watching whether an initial break can hold beyond a key technical level. A failed break would tell a different story from a move that establishes acceptance above resistance or below support.

Bank of Canada and the North American calendar

The Bank of Canada provides the first major policy catalyst, with its rate announcement and Monetary Policy Report due at 9:45 a.m. ET. Governor Tiff Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers follow with a press conference at 10:30 a.m. ET. The updated outlook and guidance will be important for USDCAD before attention shifts to the Fed.

The main scheduled events, in chronological order, are:

• 8:30 a.m. ET: U.S. advance goods trade balance, advance wholesale inventories and retail inventories excluding autos.

• 9:45 a.m. ET: Bank of Canada rate decision and Monetary Policy Report.

• 10:30 a.m. ET: Bank of Canada press conference.

• 2:00 p.m. ET: Federal Reserve policy decision.

• 2:30 p.m. ET: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference.

The trade and inventory figures provide information on the contributions to economic growth, but the two central-bank decisions are the main scheduled policy events.

After the close: Microsoft and Alphabet headline earnings

The session’s event risk continues after the closing bell, with Microsoft and Alphabet the main earnings reports to watch. As Adam Button discusses in “Earnings macro week ahead: The Fed and Big Tech report on the same day,” their spending plans have implications beyond individual share prices. AI investment is an important part of the broader economic picture, making guidance on future spending especially relevant. Chipotle also reports after the close, providing another perspective on consumer demand.

For Microsoft, I will be watching Azure growth, AI-related revenue and the capital-spending outlook. The question is whether growth and profitability provide sufficient support for the investment being made. A headline earnings beat may not settle that question if guidance raises concerns about costs or the timing of returns.

For Alphabet, the focus includes Google Cloud, search advertising, AI monetization and spending plans. Advertising provides a useful read on business demand, while cloud performance helps assess whether the AI investment cycle continues to generate revenue growth.

Chipotle offers a different economic signal. Customer traffic, comparable sales and management’s pricing commentary should help distinguish changes in underlying demand from growth driven by higher menu prices.

The practical takeaway is that the afternoon reaction to the Fed may face another test after the close. Policy expectations will drive the first assessment; company results and guidance will then provide fresh evidence on demand, investment and profitability.

In the morning video above, I take a look at the three major currency pairs—EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD—from a technical perspective. For each pair, I outline the bias, the risk-defining levels and the targets that would give either the buyers or sellers more control.

There are a few things weighing on gold price at the moment, with the bond market being arguably the biggest concern. 10-year Treasury yields are back above 5%, while the dollar is holding near a two-week high. Neither is particularly helpful for gold, especially when traders are already having to contend with plenty of uncertainty elsewhere.

In that lieu, the Fed decision later today could add more pressure to gold. While the central bank is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged, traders will be watching closely for any signals of another rate hike in December instead. And a more hawkish message could very well send Treasury yields and the dollar higher, leaving gold exposed to a deeper selloff.

Besides that, there is the broader risk mood to consider too.

In the past two weeks, we've already seen cracks starting to emerge in the AI trade. And with Microsoft and Alphabet earnings coming up, investors will be looking for reassurance that all the massive spending is actually starting to pay off.

Typically, you would expect a selloff in equities to benefit gold through safe-haven demand. But if things get messy enough, margin calls and forced liquidation could see traders opting to abandon their structurally long gold positions i.e. sell gold to raise cash instead.

The technical picture is also not exactly all too encouraging. Gold is trading around $4,030 at the moment, with the $4,000 mark remaining the crucial support level to watch.

A firm break below that puts the June to July lows around $3,940-60 in focus, before potentially opening the door towards $3,900 next. The 100-week moving average around $3,871 will also be another key downside level to watch on any broader selloff in the precious metal.

As for the upside, there is much work to be done on the part of buyers. They need to reclaim the $4,100 level first, followed by the $4,200-20 region. Then, the 100-day moving average (red line) at around $4,218 remains another important hurdle further up.

For now, much will depend on how the bond market reacts to the Fed and whether the broader risk mood deteriorates further. If Treasury yields and the dollar push higher while equities come under pressure, gold may very well struggle to keep its footing above $4,000.

That inability to break higher opened the door for sellers, and the subsequent move lower was quick and directional. The decline continued until October 23, when the price reached 1.3968.

That low stalled just above an important swing area between 1.3948 and 1.3963. The 61.8% retracement at 1.3948 added technical significance to the support zone. Sellers took back a large portion of the September rally, but they could not push through that next downside target.

Yesterday’s break above the 100-day MA failed

The bounce from last week’s low took the price above its 100-day moving average yesterday, currently at 1.40447. However, the break could not be sustained. Buying momentum faded, and the price rotated back to the downside.

That failed break matters. Getting above a key moving average is one step. Staying above it is what gives traders more confidence that control is shifting.

Yesterday, the buyers could not complete that second step.

Buyers make another push from a narrow range

Today, the price initially consolidated mostly below its 100-hour moving average at 1.4018. More recently, buyers have extended the narrow trading range higher, moving back above that moving average and away from the 50% midpoint at 1.40149.

That gives the buyers a short-term foothold. The 1.40149–1.4018 area now becomes close support and a risk-defining zone for traders looking for the recovery to continue.

Stay above it, and the buyers can keep probing higher. Move back below it, and the latest upside break starts to lose its technical backing.

The 100-day and 200-hour MAs are the next tests

The immediate question is whether the price can get back above the 100-day MA at 1.40447—and stay above it.

A sustained break would give the buyers more confidence and shift attention toward the falling 200-hour MA at 1.40678. Getting above that moving average would clear another hurdle and strengthen the bullish recovery.

Until those levels are broken, however, the rebound still has work to do. Sellers have technical levels against which they can lean and define their risk.

A move back below support would put sellers firmly in control

Conversely, if the price stalls below the overhead moving averages and rotates back below 1.4018 and 1.40149, sellers would regain firm control.

That would put the October 23 low at 1.3968 back in focus, followed by the more important 1.3948–1.3963 swing area. A break below that zone, including the 61.8% retracement, would open the door for another extension lower.

For now, the buyers are making a play. Holding 1.40149–1.4018 keeps that play alive. Breaking and holding above 1.40447, followed by 1.40678, would give it more credibility.

Below is the technical ladder for traders in the USDCAD.  

Treasury yields are modestly lower, with the 10-year yield just below 5%. That combination—lower yields alongside a mostly firmer dollar—shows that the morning is not a straightforward interest-rate story. Traders also have a major policy event ahead: the Fed’s two-day meeting begins today and concludes Wednesday. The Fed is not expected to act with 1-week until the mid-term elections.  There is no dot-plot.  Fed Chair Warsh is still expected to have a press conference but the last one lasted 30 minutes (vs 1 hour for most Powell press conferences). Don't expect much. Meeting calendars and information

Before that decision, today’s U.S. calendar brings durable goods orders, housing data and consumer confidence. With most currency pairs still trading inside their normal daily ranges, those releases could help determine whether the overnight moves extend or reverse.

Middle East risks remain part of the oil backdrop

Overnight middle east news showed that fears of imminent U.S. strikes on Iran have eased, with oil consolidating near recent highs. That provides some relief, but an easing of immediate strike concerns should not be confused with a resolution of the broader geopolitical risk. Read the oil update here. investinglive.com

Crude oil futures contract is at $101.01, down $0.75. Oil is lower on the morning, but prices around $100 remain an important consideration for the inflation and growth outlook. Remember it was about $68 at the start of the Iran/US war back on February 28. 

The dollar: Mostly higher, with the antipodeans resisting

The dollar’s largest gain is against the euro, with EURUSD down 0.27%. Its largest decline is against the New Zealand dollar, with NZDUSD up 0.28%.

From the dollar’s perspective:

• Against EUR: +0.27%, with EURUSD at 1.1142.
• Against CHF: +0.22%, with USDCHF at 0.8289.
• Against GBP: +0.16%, with GBPUSD at 1.3317.
• Against JPY: +0.15%, with USDJPY at 157.74.
• Against CAD: +0.08%, with USDCAD at 1.4022.
• Against AUD: −0.17%, with AUDUSD at 0.7028.
• Against NZD: −0.28%, with NZDUSD at 0.5696.

The AUD and NZD gains are the exceptions to the broader dollar strength. That makes the pair-by-pair price action important. A stronger dollar against the euro does not automatically mean the same opportunity exists against every other currency.

Currency ranges: Room remains for an extension

Using the session highs and lows the actual range for the day vs the ATR for the last 22 trading days (about a month of trading) shows: 

• EURUSD: 1.1136–1.1179 — 43 pips, versus a 62-pip average range; 69% completed.
• GBPUSD: 1.3308–1.3349 — 41 pips, versus a 72-pip average range; 57% completed.
• USDJPY: 157.43–157.88 — 45 pips, versus an 88-pip average range; 51% completed.
• USDCHF: 0.8269–0.8291 — 22 pips, versus a 52-pip average range; 42% completed.
• USDCAD: 1.4010–1.4027 — 17 pips, versus a 62-pip average range; 27% completed.
• AUDUSD: 0.7010–0.7036 — 26 pips, versus a 45-pip average range; 58% completed.
• NZDUSD: 0.5681–0.5704 — 23 pips, versus a 41-pip average range; 56% completed.

USDCAD has the most remaining room relative to its normal range, followed by USDCHF. EURUSD has completed the largest share, but even that pair remains below its average daily movement.

The education point is that room to move does not tell us the direction. A narrow range can extend higher or lower, and an average range is neither a ceiling nor a requirement. The technical break, and the ability to hold that break, provide the more useful trading information.

Treasury yields edge lower

• 2-year: 4.6954%, down 1.56 basis points.
• 5-year: 4.8100%, down 1.40 basis points.
• 10-year: 4.9740%, down 1.20 basis points.
• 30-year: 5.2932%, down 0.78 basis points.

The declines are modest. The 10-year yield remains close to the psychologically important 5% level, leaving traders sensitive to data that could shift expectations for inflation, growth and Fed policy.

U.S. stock futures point to a higher open

U.S. stock futures are higher as traders work through this morning’s earnings reports and prepare for durable goods and consumer confidence data ahead of Wednesday’s Fed decision.

• Dow industrial average futures: Up 138 points.
• S&P 500 futures: Up 21 points.
• Nasdaq 100 futures: Up 108 points.

The gains suggest a positive opening tone, but today’s data and the earnings outlooks could still shift sentiment. Coca-Cola and UPS beat expectations on both earnings and revenue, while Boeing and PayPal delivered mixed results.

Earnings: Coca-Cola and UPS beat on both measures; Boeing and PayPal are mixed

This morning’s earnings reports show Coca-Cola and UPS beating expectations on both earnings and revenue. Boeing reported a larger-than-expected adjusted loss despite stronger revenue, while PayPal beat on adjusted earnings but missed on revenue.

• Boeing: Adjusted EPS −$0.34 vs. −$0.25 expected (MISS); revenue $24.2 billion vs. $23.9 billion expected (BEAT). Shares are up 0.63%
• PayPal: Adjusted EPS $1.45 vs. $1.31 expected (BEAT); revenue $8.58 billion vs. $8.71 billion expected (MISS). Raised its full-year 2026 profit outlook. Shares are down -1.18%
• Coca-Cola: Adjusted EPS $0.91 vs. $0.88 expected (BEAT); revenue $13.4 billion vs. $12.92 billion expected (BEAT). Shares are trading up 0.81%
• UPS: EPS $1.69 vs. $1.62 expected (BEAT); revenue $22.9 billion vs. $22.27 billion expected (BEAT). Raised its full-year 2026 outlook, with revenue guidance of $92.6 billion vs. $91.78 billion expected and EPS guidance of $7.28 vs. $7.19 expected. Shares are up 1.18%.

UPS adds a stronger outlook to its quarterly beats. PayPal’s report is more mixed: stronger earnings and a higher profit outlook come alongside revenue below expectations. Boeing’s revenue beat provides some encouragement, but the larger adjusted loss leaves profitability as the key concern.

Big earnings still to come this week

The earnings calendar remains busy, with Microsoft and Alphabet reporting Wednesday after the close, followed by Amazon Thursday after the close. Those releases put cloud growth, AI spending and profitability firmly in focus alongside Wednesday’s Fed decision. www.investors.com

The major remaining releases include:

• Tuesday, October 27, after the close: Visa, Robinhood, Seagate Technology and Teradyne.
• Wednesday, October 28, before the open: GE Vernova, Vertiv, Amphenol and TE Connectivity.
• Wednesday, October 28, after the close: Microsoft, Alphabet and Ford.
• Thursday, October 29, before the open: Caterpillar, Eli Lilly, Mastercard, Merck and Shell.
• Thursday, October 29, after the close: Amazon, Intel, Starbucks and Gilead Sciences.
• Friday, October 30, before the open: ExxonMobil, Chevron, AbbVie and Colgate-Palmolive. www.kiplinger.com

For the technology leaders, I will be watching whether revenue growth and forward guidance support the money being committed to AI infrastructure. Microsoft’s Azure, Alphabet’s Google Cloud and Amazon’s AWS will be key areas to assess, along with capital spending, margins and cash flow. GE Vernova and Vertiv will also be worth watching for commentary on power and data-center infrastructure demand. (SEE a technical review of the Mag7 names HERE)

Outside technology, Visa and Mastercard offer a window into consumer spending, Caterpillar into industrial demand, and ExxonMobil and Chevron into the energy backdrop.

For traders, the headline BEAT, MET or MISS is only the starting point. The outlook and the stock’s reaction matter just as much. A company can beat expectations and still see its shares fall if guidance disappoints or investors expected more.

European stocks are mixed

The snapshot shows modest gains across the major continental markets, while the UK is lower:

• Germany’s DAX: 25,475.43, up 64.58 points or 0.25%.
• France’s CAC 40: 7,879.57, up 34.24 points or 0.44%.
• UK FTSE 100: 10,685.64, down 81.68 points or 0.76%.
• Italy’s benchmark: 19,089.20, up 55.90 points or 0.29%.
• Spain’s IBEX 35: 19,102.01, up 68.72 points or 0.36%.

Metals and Bitcoin

• Spot gold: $4,009.95, down $7.25 or 0.18%.
• Gold futures: $4,009.74, down $6.09 or 0.15%.
• Silver: $53.308, down $0.626 or 1.16%.
• Copper: $6.6250, up $0.0830 or 1.27%.
• Bitcoin: $79,750, down $256 or 0.32%.

Gold is holding just above $4,000, while Bitcoin is below $80,000. Those round numbers provide reference points, but traders still need to see whether price can hold a break and build momentum away from them.

The North American calendar

All times are Eastern. Forecasts and prior readings below.

• 8:30 AM — Durable goods orders, September — Forecast: +1.7%; Previous: −0.1%.
• 8:30 AM — Durable goods excluding transportation, September — Forecast: +0.6%; Previous: +0.2%.
• 8:30 AM — Nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, September — Forecast: +0.7%; Previous: +1.6%.
• 9:00 AM — Monthly home prices, August — Previous: +0.3% month over month; +2.6% year over year.
• 9:00 AM — Case-Shiller 20-city prices, seasonally adjusted — Forecast: +0.3% month over month; Previous: +0.3%.
• 9:00 AM — Case-Shiller 20-city prices, not seasonally adjusted — Forecast: +2.6% year over year; Previous: +2.5%.
• 10:00 AM — Consumer confidence, October — Forecast: 81.0; Previous: 81.9.
• 10:00 AM — New home sales, September — Forecast: 650,000 annualized; Previous: 684,000.
• 10:00 AM — Richmond Fed manufacturing index, October — Previous: −2.
• 10:00 AM — Richmond Fed services index, October — Previous: 0.

Durable goods will give traders an early read on demand for manufactured products. The nondefense capital goods measure excluding aircraft is particularly useful for assessing business investment intentions.

At 10:00 AM, consumer confidence will shift the focus to households. The combination matters: are businesses continuing to invest, and are consumers becoming more cautious? A meaningful surprise could move yields and the dollar ahead of Wednesday’s Fed decision.

EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD: The morning decision points

In the morning video above, I take a look at the three major currency pairs—EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD—from a technical perspective. For each pair, I outline the bias, the risk-defining levels and the targets that would give either the buyers or sellers more control.

EURUSD

EURUSD is trading at 1.1142, just six pips above the session low at 1.1136. The immediate pressure is to the downside, with sellers positioned near the lower end of the morning range.

The first question is whether sellers can break 1.1136 and keep the price below it. A break that quickly reverses would be a failed break and would weaken the downside momentum argument. The session high at 1.1179 marks the other boundary of the supplied range.

USDJPY

USDJPY is trading at 157.74, closer to the session high at 157.88 than the low at 157.43. Buyers have the stronger position within the morning range.

A move above 157.88, followed by an ability to stay above, would give those buyers more control. A failed break would suggest resistance remains effective. On the downside, 157.43 is the session boundary sellers would need to break to turn the morning range lower.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD is trading at 1.3317, nine pips above its 1.3308 session low. Like EURUSD, the pair is under pressure near the bottom of its range.

Sellers need a sustained move below 1.3308 to extend that pressure. If the low holds and the price rotates higher, buyers would begin to challenge the immediate downside momentum. The session high at 1.3349 remains the upper boundary.

For all three pairs, the same discipline applies: getting through a level is the first step; staying through it is what gives the break credibility.

Looking at the daily chart, gold continues to make lower highs through the month and is trading well below both its key daily moving averages. That reaffirms that sellers are in control with the recent rejection around $4,200 only adding to the downside pressure in the latest decline toward the $4,000 level.

At the same time, we're also starting to see the June to Jule lows around $3,958-60 come into focus and a firm break below the $4,000 mark would put that level under immediate threat. And if broken, that could potentially open the door towards the 100-week moving average around $3,870.

So, what could be the potential trigger for gold?

I would say that much will depend on how the bond market behaves over the coming days, especially with 10-year Treasury yields continuing to sit just under 5%.

While yields have retreated considerably from above 5.30% earlier this month, that hasn't done much to help gold regain its footing. Typically, lower Treasury yields should be supportive for the precious metal and so the continued weakness in gold price is rather telling at this point.

For this week, the Fed decision is one to watch alongside PCE price inflation data. Any bias to support a renewed push higher in Treasury yields could easily add to the selling pressure in gold. And considering how fragile the technical picture is looking, gold buyers certainly won't want to see that happen.

Besides that, big tech earnings will also be a key consideration especially after the recent turbulence we are seeing in the stock market.

Investors are already questioning whether the enormous spending commitments behind the AI boom can eventually deliver the returns that are being promised. And if earnings from the likes of Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon fail to offer much reassurance and the tech selloff gathers pace, we could see a broader rush to reduce risk across markets.

Now, you would think that as risk appetite sours, gold should benefit amid its safe-haven appeal. That makes sense and might be how the immediate reaction plays out. However, just be on the lookout as to how disorderly the selloff in equities will be if we are to see major cracks in the AI trade this week or even the next.

If things go too far, too fast, then that could have the opposite effect on gold flows. If the stock market rout gets too ugly, then investors facing margin calls may be forced to liquidate other positions to raise cash. And that includes their gold holdings. Think back to the conditions back in March after the US-Iran war started.

So even if Treasury yields fall as investors seek safety in bonds, gold could still find itself under pressure from forced selling as risk sentiment turns extremely sour.

For now though, the $4,000 mark remains the key line in the sand. A recovery above $4,100-17 would help ease some of the immediate pressure, but a firm break below $3,958-60 would leave the door open towards $3,870 next.

And with the bond market and big tech earnings both capable of stirring up volatility this week, I wouldn't get too comfortable in assuming that $4,000 will hold just yet.

However, the dollar’s gains tell only part of the story. For traders, the next question is whether the technical breaks can be sustained. What levels keep the USD buyers in control, and what would signal that the momentum is fading?

In the video above, I take a look at each currency pair and outline the technical bias, the risks and the next targets.

USDCAD: Buyers make a move, but the 100-day MA remains a hurdle

The USDCAD moved above its 100-hour moving average at 1.40287 and extended through its 100-day moving average at 1.40442. However, the break above the longer-term moving average could not be sustained. The price is currently near 1.4037, between those two technical levels.

That leaves traders with clearly defined support below and resistance above.

Holding above the 100-hour moving average keeps the near-term advantage with the buyers. However, they still need to get back above—and stay above—the 100-day moving average to give the upside move more credibility.

A sustained break above 1.40442 would open the door toward:

• 1.4082: The previously broken 38.2% retracement.

• 1.4093: The 200-hour moving average.

Conversely, a move back below 1.40287 would weaken the bullish bias and put the 50% midpoint of the move up from the August low at 1.40149 back in play. Break below that level, and sellers would have more reason to push toward the 1.3950 area.

The buyers have made progress, but they still have work to do. The 100-hour moving average defines their risk. The 100-day moving average is the next hurdle.

AUDUSD: Buyers had their shot above the 100-day MA. They missed.

The AUDUSD moved above its 100-day moving average at 0.70317 on Friday and again today. On both occasions, the buyers failed to sustain the break.

That failure matters. A move above a longer-term moving average gives buyers an opportunity to take more control. When the price cannot stay above it, traders have to respect the rejection.

The selling has now taken the price back below its 100-hour moving average at 0.7016, shifting the near-term bias in favor of the sellers.

That moving average becomes the close risk-defining level:

• Stay below 0.7016: Sellers retain the near-term advantage.

• Move back above 0.7016: The downside break loses momentum, and the battle between the 100-hour and 100-day moving averages is back on.

On further selling, the next key downside target comes between 0.6989 and 0.6994, where the 200-hour moving average and a swing area provide a support zone.

The buyers had their shot above the 100-day moving average and missed. Now the sellers have their opportunity below the 100-hour moving average. Can they keep control and push toward the next support area?

NZDUSD: The 100-hour MA gives way. The 200-hour MA is the next test.

The NZDUSD briefly broke below its 100-hour moving average last Thursday, but that break failed. On Friday, buyers leaned against the moving average on two separate occasions and held support, keeping the recovery intact.

Today, that pattern changed.

The upside move stalled at 0.5707, just short of last Thursday’s high near 0.5709. Buyers could not extend the recovery, and sellers subsequently pushed the price below the rising 100-hour moving average at 0.56878.

That break shifted the near-term advantage toward the sellers. The price has since reached 0.5671, bringing the rising 200-hour moving average at 0.5663 into focus.

The distinction is important: breaking the 100-hour moving average weakens the recovery. Breaking the 200-hour moving average would give sellers another technical reason to press lower.

If buyers instead hold support at the 200-hour moving average, the pair would be caught between two clear boundaries:

• Resistance: The 100-hour moving average near 0.5688.

• Support: The 200-hour moving average near 0.5663.

Between those levels, buyers and sellers would battle for the next shove. A break below the lower moving average would increase the bearish bias. A recovery above the upper moving average would suggest the sellers could not build on their opportunity.

In the video above, I walk through those levels on each chart and explain what buyers and sellers need to do next. The USD has the momentum today. The technical levels will help determine whether that momentum can continue.

Earlier today, buyers leaned against that retracement level and managed a modest bounce to 1.3356. However, that recovery ran out of steam, and the subsequent break below 1.3342 has shifted the near-term focus toward the next downside hurdle: the rising 200-hour moving average at 1.33327.

With the price trading near 1.3334, that moving average is being tested. The battle between buyers and sellers is at an important level.

Sellers started with a ceiling above

The sellers gained confidence earlier in the Asian-Pacific session when the high stalled against the 100-day moving average at 1.33874.

That failure gave traders a technical reason to sell, with risk defined against the moving average. Buyers had their shot to push through a longer-term technical ceiling. They could not get the job done, and the price rotated lower.

Now, after breaking below the retracement at 1.3342, sellers are trying to build on that rejection by taking out an important hourly support level.

Why the 200-hour moving average matters

A move below the 200-hour moving average would be the first break beneath that indicator since October 15. That makes this more than just another price level on the chart.

The moving average has helped define the bullish side of the recent corrective move. Staying above it keeps some of that structure intact. Breaking below it—and staying below—would suggest that sellers are taking greater control.

The distinction is important. A brief move below a moving average does not automatically confirm a sustained break. Traders want to see whether the price can extend lower and whether a subsequent bounce finds sellers near the broken level.

If the price breaks below but quickly snaps back above, the sellers may have had their shot and missed.

However, a break with follow-through would open the door toward the next swing area between 1.3298 and 1.33103. On the way down, traders would encounter the upper edge at 1.33103 first, followed by 1.3298.

Buyers also have a reason to get involved

Despite today’s selling, the 200-hour moving average remains a potential support level for dip buyers.

Why buy when the price is moving lower? Because an identifiable technical level gives traders a place to define and limit risk.

A buyer leaning against the moving average is looking for support to hold and the price to rotate higher. If the price instead breaks below with momentum and remains below, the reason for that trade weakens. The level provides a reference for deciding when the idea is no longer working.

That does not guarantee a bounce or an exact exit price. It gives the trade a clear technical framework.

For buyers to show that they are doing more than temporarily slowing the decline, they would need to reclaim 1.3342. That would put the price back above the broken 38.2% retracement and suggest that the latest downside break is losing traction.

The next upside steps would be:

• 1.3355–1.3356: The earlier corrective high.

• 1.33807: The 100-hour moving average.

• 1.33874: The 100-day moving average that capped the Asian-Pacific session high.

Each level reclaimed would improve the buyers’ position. Until then, a bounce remains a recovery within today’s move lower.

Sellers are making a play. Can they finish it?

For now, the rejection at the 100-day moving average and the break below 1.3342 give sellers the near-term advantage.

But they still need to get through the 200-hour moving average at 1.33327.

Get below and stay below, and the bearish case strengthens, with 1.33103 and 1.3298 the next downside targets. Hold support and move back above 1.3342, and sellers risk losing some of today’s momentum.

The sellers are making a play. The next test is whether they can turn that pressure into a sustained break.

In the morning video above, I take a look at the three major currency pairs—EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD—from a technical perspective. For each pair, I outline the bias, the risk-defining levels and the targets that would give either the buyers or sellers more control.

U.S. stock futures are pointing modestly higher, while crude oil is down about 2% in the supplied morning snapshot. Diplomatic efforts involving Iran offer some encouragement, but the threat of renewed fighting and Tuesday’s Israeli election keep geopolitical risks firmly in the picture.

The dollar is higher across the board

The greenback has gained against every major currency in the morning snapshot. Its largest gains are against the Japanese yen and New Zealand dollar, while the euro and Canadian dollar have shown the smallest declines against the USD.

• EURUSD: 1.1196, down 0.05%.

• USDJPY: 157.35, up 0.31%.

• GBPUSD: 1.3350, down 0.16%.

• USDCHF: 0.8262, up 0.16%.

• USDCAD: 1.4011, up 0.05%.

• AUDUSD: 0.7028, down 0.07%.

• NZDUSD: 0.5682, down 0.30%.

The direction is consistent, but the magnitude is different. The dollar’s gains against the euro and Canadian dollar are modest. The moves against the yen and New Zealand dollar are more pronounced.

Currency ranges: Where has the movement been?

The high-low readings show:

• EURUSD: 1.1194 to 1.1226 — 32 pips vs 22 day average of 65 pips

• USDJPY: 156.66 to 157.40 — 74 pips vs 22 day average of 94 pips.

• GBPUSD: 1.3343 to 1.3387 — 44 pips vs 22 day average of 71 pips.

• USDCHF: 0.8233 to 0.8266 — 33 pips vs 22 day average of 51 pips.

• USDCAD: 1.3999 to 1.4048 — 49 pips vs 22 day average of 62 pips.

• AUDUSD: 0.7023 to 0.7039 — 16 pips vs 22 day average of 45 pips.

• NZDUSD: 0.5683 to 0.5707, or 30 pips vs 22 day average of 30 pips.

USDJPY has the largest range in pips, while AUDUSD has the smallest.

U.S. stock futures point higher

The latest futures indications show:

• Dow industrial average futures: up 168 points.

• S&P 500 futures: up 14.32 points.

• Nasdaq 100 futures: up 76 points.

The opening indication is positive, but earnings and company guidance will provide a series of tests throughout the week.

Meta reverses its initial decline

Meta is a good example of why traders need to watch the reaction after a headline.

The company announced approximately $35 billion in concurrent equity offerings and plans for a future stock-sale program of up to $60 billion. The financing would support its AI infrastructure expansion.

The supplied headline also notes that Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom have expressed nonbinding interest in purchasing up to $5 billion of shares collectively. That is an expression of interest, rather than a completed investment.

After initially falling on the announcement, Meta shares have reversed higher and are now up 1.90% in the latest update.

Issuing stock raises questions about dilution and the cost of funding the AI buildout. Nevertheless, the early sellers have not maintained control. The reversal is encouraging for buyers, although they still need to sustain it through the trading session.

Tecnically, the price tumble last week, took the price to the 100/200 day MAs at $630 and $632.50 respectively. The low on Friday reached just above those MAs at $633.27. The bounce today is off key MA support. Those MAs will continue to be a barometer for buyers and sellers control.  Stay above keeps the buyers in play. 

A flood of earnings will test the AI story

Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon are among the major companies reporting this week. Investors will be looking beyond revenue growth to spending plans, margins and evidence that AI investments are producing returns.

That distinction matters. A company can beat the headline earnings estimate and still see its shares fall if guidance disappoints or spending rises faster than investors expected. The report matters. The price reaction tells traders how the market is judging it.

Oil retreats, but Middle East risks remain

The commodity snapshot shows:

• WTI crude oil futures: $101.19, down $2.08, or 2.01%.

• Spot gold: approximately $4,017.30, up $21.49, or 0.54%.

• Silver: approximately $53.98, up 0.28%.

• Copper: $6.5210, up 0.24%.

• Bitcoin: $80,256, up $207, or 0.26%.

Oil is lower as regional diplomacy continues. Qatari mediators visited Tehran, while delegations from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey are also pursuing talks aimed at preventing renewed fighting.

However, diplomacy is taking place alongside threats of further military action. Exchanges involving the Houthis and Saudi Arabia add another potential source of disruption.

For traders, lower oil offers some relief from inflation pressure. Sustained relief would require greater confidence that energy supplies and shipping routes are becoming more secure. One morning’s decline does not establish that.

Israeli election adds another catalyst

Israel holds its legislative election on Tuesday, with Benjamin Netanyahu’s leadership and security record central to the debate. The result—and the coalition negotiations that follow—will be watched for implications for regional policy and the Iran conflict.

Elsewhere, Brazil’s Lula da Silva won a fourth presidential term, while Serbia’s Aleksandar Vucic conceded an electoral defeat. Those outcomes add to an already busy political backdrop.

German Ifo: Better expectations, weaker current conditions

Germany’s October Ifo readings were mixed:

• Business climate: 90.2 versus 90.0 expected and 89.9 previously.

• Expectations: 91.6 versus 90.0 expected and 90.4 previously.

• Current conditions: 88.8 versus 89.9 expected and 89.5 previously.

The improvement came from expectations. Businesses see a better outlook, but their assessment of current conditions deteriorated.

That is a useful distinction for euro traders. Optimism improved, but the current economy has yet to deliver the same message. EURUSD remains modestly lower in the morning snapshot.

European markets and borrowing costs

European equities are mostly higher:

• Germany’s DAX: up approximately 0.95%.

• France’s CAC 40: up 0.77%.

• UK FTSE 100: up 0.42%.

• Spain’s IBEX 35: down 0.04%.

• Italy’s FTSE MIB: up 1.01%.

European 10-year yields show:

• Germany: 3.373%, up 1.8 basis points.

• France: 4.970%, down 4.3 basis points.

• UK: 5.352%, down 1.8 basis points.

• Spain: 4.041%, down 1.0 basis point.

• Italy: 4.569%, down 1.8 basis points.

France’s yield is lower today, but its spread over Germany remains near 160 basis points. French borrowing costs remain an important market barometer. They also survived a potential credit rating down-grade on Friday. 

The North American calendar: A quieter start before the flood

All times are Eastern.

• Monday, October 26, 10:30 a.m.: Dallas Fed manufacturing survey.

• Tuesday, October 27, 8:30 a.m.: Durable goods orders.

• Tuesday, 10:00 a.m.: Consumer confidence, new-home sales and the Richmond Fed manufacturing survey.

• Wednesday, October 28, 2:00 p.m.: Fed policy decision, followed by the press conference at 2:30 p.m.

• Thursday, October 29, 8:30 a.m.: Advance third-quarter GDP, September personal income and spending, PCE inflation and weekly jobless claims.

• Friday, October 30, 8:30 a.m.: Third-quarter Employment Cost Index.

The sequencing matters. The Fed announces its decision before Thursday’s GDP and PCE reports. Those releases can therefore reshape expectations for the next meeting even after this week’s decision is behind us.

Growth, consumer spending, inflation and employment costs will all be in focus. Traders should be prepared to reassess the outlook as each report arrives.

EURUSD: Sellers have the early advantage

EURUSD is trading near 1.1196, just above the session low at 1.1194. The session high is 1.1226.

From the supplied price snapshot, sellers have the early advantage. A break below 1.1194 would extend the session’s decline. Buyers need to move the price away from that low and sustain a recovery before they can argue that control is shifting.

The video examines the technical levels that define that risk more precisely.

USDJPY: Buyers press toward the session high

USDJPY is trading near 157.35, just below the session high at 157.40. The low is 156.66.

Buyers have the early advantage, but they are approaching a decision point. A break above 157.40 that holds would extend their control. A failure to sustain a break would give traders a reason to question the momentum.

Getting through a level is one step. Staying through it is the next.

GBPUSD: Trading near the lower end of its range

GBPUSD is near 1.3350 after trading between 1.3343 and 1.3387.

Sellers have the early advantage, with 1.3343 the immediate downside reference. A break below would extend the session low. Buyers need to defend that low and build a sustained recovery to weaken the immediate selling pressure.

The video will give more details for your trading today. 

With so many catalysts ahead, I want the price action and the technical tools applied to that price action to define the trade. Know the bias. Know the risk. Know what needs to break to give the next move more control.

Despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and the recent retreat in Treasury yields, gold has struggled to find much upside traction lately. The rebound in August and September has faded completely and we're now seeing a pattern of lower highs, lower lows develop as sellers gradually regain the upper hand.

The $4,000 level is still holding for now, with price hovering around $4,007. So, I wouldn't go as far as calling this a confirmed technical breakdown just yet. However, repeated tests of a major support level such as this one without a convincing rebound would not exactly be encouraging either.

The swing lows around $3,942-60 will provide some additional layer of defense to the $4,000 mark for now. However, a firm break below the figure level and especially a convincing daily close below that could be enough to trigger further downside momentum in the precious metal.

And that could pave the way for a deeper correction towards the 100-week moving average, seen currently around $3,870. That is a particularly important technical level in my view as gold has not tested its 100-week moving average since October 2023. Besides that, the key level also sits near the October to November 2025 lows. As such, that makes the region a potentially significant area for buyers to regroup should selling pressure intensify.

For now though, the immediate challenge for gold buyers is to keep price above $4,000 and build a more convincing recovery. The first upside hurdle is getting back above the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages, seen at $4,076 and $4,114 respectively. After which, getting back above $4,117 and the much difficult $4,200 level would offer some encouragement that the downside momentum is beginning to ease. But until then, I would argue that the balance of risks remains tilted to the downside for gold.

The only bright spot for buyers now is that this is a chart that has not actually broken down yet. The $4,000 mark is where the real test lies in identifying between that and perhaps a market that is vulnerable but still has the potential to recover. It's all down to whether buyers can hold the figure level as such.

New to gold futures? Start with your first chart

Following gold’s price moves and curious about futures? This beginner-friendly NinjaTrader tutorial shows you how to find and load a Gold Futures (GC) chart in under three minutes. Take less than 3 minutes to watch this practical first step toward exploring the platform. 

Those are encouraging developments for the buyers. They are starting to show up on dips and defend a technical level.

However, there is still work to do. The price remains below the 38.2% retracement of the August-to-October decline. Until that level is broken, the move higher remains a relatively modest correction within the broader move lower.

A 422-pip decline left buyers with a hill to climb

From the August 21 high near 0.5986 to the October 14 low near 0.5564, the NZDUSD fell 422 pips, or 7.05%.

That was a sizable move. Sellers controlled the trend, and rallies along the way gave them opportunities to sell at higher levels.

The buying started to gain more traction on October 16. Since then, the price has worked higher, moving back above its hourly moving averages and putting some distance between the current price and the October low.

The question now is whether the buyers can turn that initial recovery into something more meaningful. To do that, they need to keep holding support below and start breaking resistance above.

Sellers had their shot below the 100-hour MA

Yesterday’s correction lower (only decline over the last 4 trading days), took the price back below the rising 100-hour moving average. That gave sellers an opportunity to regain more control and interrupt the recovery.

They could not sustain the break.

Instead, the price snapped back above the moving average. Sellers had their shot and missed.

Today, the price returned to the 100-hour MA twice, and both tests found buyers. That helps establish the moving average as a level traders are watching and leaning against.

The 100-hour MA is near 0.56835 and rising. Stay above it, and the short-term bias remains more bullish. Buyers have a technical reason to stay involved and a nearby reference for defining their risk.

The nearby swing area adds to the support

The moving average also sits within a swing area between 0.56736 and 0.56860.

That combination makes this an important support region. Buyers would prefer to keep the price above the rising 100-hour MA. If the price slips below it, the bottom of the swing area at 0.56736 becomes the next test.

A sustained move below both would weaken the recovery and give sellers more confidence. The 200-hour MA near 0.56553 would then become another downside reference.

For now, however, today’s repeated holds at the 100-hour MA show buyers continuing to defend their position.

The 38.2% retracement is the next hurdle

On the topside, the next key target is the 38.2% retracement at 0.57258.

I like to see the 38.2% retracement reached and broken as a minimum correction of a trend move. It helps show that buyers can take back a meaningful portion of the decline.

The NZDUSD has not cleared that hurdle yet.

Holding support is one part of the recovery. Breaking resistance is the next. A move above 0.57258—and the ability to stay above it—would strengthen the buyers’ case and open the door for the next push higher.

The 50% midpoint lines up with an old swing area

Above the 38.2% retracement, attention turns toward the 0.5761–0.5777 swing area.

That region has several historical turning points on the chart. The 50% midpoint at 0.57756 also sits near the upper end of the area, giving traders another technical reason to focus on it.

Getting there would take back roughly half of the August-to-October decline. It would also bring the price into a region where sellers could look to lean against resistance.

There are steps to take before that happens. The buyers are making a play, and this week’s price action is giving them some encouragement. Now they need to keep the 100-hour MA underneath them and get through 0.57258 to keep the climb going.

The low for the week was on Monday.

Recall, that the AUDUSD has worked its way higher from Monday’s low near 0.6970, with buyers pushing back above a familiar swing area between 0.6989 and 0.6994.

That area is marked by the red numbered circles on the chart. The repeated highs and reactions tell traders why it matters. What had been a ceiling needed to be broken to give the buyers more control. Once above, that ceiling becomes a potential floor.

The break higher opened the door for a move toward the next key target: the 100-day moving average at 0.7032.

The buyers made their move. But at that moving average, the sellers showed up.

Sellers lean against the 100-day MA

On Wednesday, the price tested the 100-day moving average and stalled. Today, sellers leaned against that level again.

Why sell there? It gives traders a clear level to define and limit risk. Stay below, and the sellers can look for a rotation lower. Move above and stay above, and that bearish trade loses some of its technical support.

A sustained break above 0.7032 would have traders looking toward:

• 0.70447: An intervening chart level.

• 0.70506: The 200-day moving average.

• 0.70654: The 50% midpoint of the September-to-October decline.

Getting above the 100-day MA would be another step forward for the buyers. They would still have work to do, however, with the 200-day MA waiting above.

Buyers defend the 100-hour MA below

While sellers have defended resistance, buyers have also been leaning against support.

Pullbacks on Thursday and Friday stalled near the 100-hour moving average, currently around 0.7008. That makes it a close risk-defining level for buyers looking for the recovery to continue.

Stay above is more bullish. Break below, and the door opens for a rotation back toward:

• 0.6989–0.6994: The swing area marked by the red numbered circles.

• 0.6984: The rising 200-hour moving average.

A move back below those levels would take away more of the buyers’ progress from earlier this week.

For now, the battle is defined. Sellers are leaning against the 100-day MA above. Buyers are leaning against the 100-hour MA below. Traders are waiting for the next shove.

In the video, I walk through those levels, explain why they matter, and outline what buyers and sellers need to do to take more control.