Forex Online

G-7 Comments Set Australian Dollar High

2009-10-05T13:14:00.000-07:00

The Australian dollar posted today its first gains after a rather bearish trend last week as the Group of 7 did not confirm speculations which suggested it would stress on the importance of a strong U.S. dollar to stabilize the world economy, favoring again high-yielding currencies.

Now,the Australian dollar has been one of the best performing currencies this year as risk appetite surged with the first signs of economic improvement in multiple parts of the world. This Monday, after a rather risk averse past week prior to the Group of 7 meeting, the Aussie managed to climb as both international and domestic factors provided support for the South Pacific currency to revert its previous losing trend. The G-7 did not give as much importance to a strong dollar as analysts expected, bringing risk appetite back to markets also adding to optimistic news in Australia, as services industry shrank less than expected in the past month.

The Aussie definitely remains as one of the best bets in currency markets for this week, according to specialists. A favorable domestic scenario combined with the G-7 meeting outcome only adds to the already optimism situation in Australia which is expecting interest rates to be raised before the end of year, attracting overseas investors to purchase Aussie priced assets.

AUD/USD traded at 0.8749 as of 12:06 GMT from an opening rate of 0.8670 yesterday. AUD/JPY also climbed, touching 78.65 from 77.53.

If you want to comment on the Australian dollar’s recent action or have any questions regarding this currency, please, feel free to reply below.

Dollar Loses Slightly on G-7

2009-10-05T13:13:00.000-07:00

The dollar started this week losing versus the euro and the pound after speculations that Group of 7 central bankers would provide statements supporting the dollar were not confirmed, erasing last week gains and setting the dollar to a bearish scenario again.

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2009-07-22T10:53:00.000-07:00

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MetaTrader Hosting

2009-07-21T08:35:00.000-07:00

Host your MetaTrader EA (Expert Advisor) on a Forex VPS (Virtual Private Server) from only $35 per month!
"What is a Virtual Private Server or VPS?"
A VPS is basically another computer running on a hosted server. You interact with it in the same way you would with a normal Windows®-based desktop on your PC or laptop. The only difference is, you don't need to keep your computer running at home 24/7, and you don't need to rely on your internet or power connection in order for the VPS to keep running. That is taken care of by the VPS host.
All you need to do is open an account, log in to your VPS, and set up your EA like you normally would on your home computer. You can also set up any other trading platform on your VPS. Then, disconnect and go about your normal day, safe in the knowledge that you can turn off your home computer without missing a trade!
Forex VPS supports both Windows®, MAC and Linux operating systems.
Your VPS
This is what you will see when you log in to your VPS:
Click to Enlarge
Advantages
You don't have to leave your computer running 24/7
You don't have to rely on your internet or power connection
You can run as many platforms and EA's as you wish
You can access any trading platform from any computer anywhere in the world
Features
MetaTrader Pre-installed - MetaTrader 4 comes pre-installed on all hosting plans
Compatible With Any Broker - You can download and install any trading platform from any broker to your VPS
Automatic Restart - If the server is rebooted, you can set up your trading platform to automatically restart
Supports Multiple Operating Systems - Forex VPS supports both Windows®, MAC and Linux.
24/7 Access - Log in to your VPS at any time
Guarantee - Every plan comes with a 30 Day, money-back guarantee
Choose From 3 ForexVPS Hosting Plans
Starter Desktop - Suitable for 3-4 MetaTrader platforms**
Professional Desktop - Suitable for 6-8 MetaTrader platforms**
Ultimate Desktop - Suitable for 12-16 MetaTrader platforms**
**Based on one EA per platform using 128MB RAM. Depending on your EA, you could run more or less MetaTrader terminals than indicated above.

Best Broker Ratings

2009-07-21T08:28:00.000-07:00

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Forex Signals

2009-07-21T08:26:00.000-07:00

Daily Forex Charts
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ZuluTrade
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Forex Broker List

2009-07-21T08:16:00.000-07:00

Forex ECN-type Brokers (No Dealing Desk)
MB Trading -
Dukascopy -
Interactive Brokers -

MT4-to-ECN bridges available here
No Dealing Desk Brokers

FXCM -

Forex Market Makers
FX Solutions -
GFT Forex -
Oanda -

MetaTrader Programming: Do you need an EA or indicator programmed for MetaTrader?LatitudeFX -
MB Trading -
Alpari -
Forex.com -
FXCM -
FXDD -
Interbank FX -
Mig Investments -
ODL Securities -
TradeView Forex -
Velocity4x -

Forex Broker Guide

2009-07-21T08:14:00.000-07:00

The following is a list of questions you may like to consider before opening an account. You can use this checklist to narrow down your selection of companies that fit your requirements. You may also wish to refer to the forex broker ratings page on this site to read about traders unique experiences with particular brokers.
The following links will also give you some background information on U.S. FCM's (Futures Commission Merchants).
Selected Financial Data for FCM's
NFA Background Affiliation Status
1. Word of Mouth
What do other traders say about the broker?
What is their customer service like?
2. Customer Protection
Is the broker regulated?
What regulatory organisation are they registered with and what protections does it afford you?
Are client funds insured against fraud?
Are client funds insured against bankruptcy?
3. Execution
What business model do they operate? i.e. Are they a Market Maker, ECN or no-dealing desk broker?
How fast is their order execution?
Are orders manually or automatically executed?
What is the maximum trade size before you have to request a quote?
Are all clients trades offset?
4. Spread
How tight is the spread?
Is it fixed or variable?
5. Slippage
How much slippage can be expected in normal and fast moving markets?
6. Margin
What is the margin requirement? e.g. 0.25% margin = max 400:1 leverage ), 0.5% margin = max 200:1 leverage, 1% margin = max 100:1 leverage, 2% margin = max 50:1 leverage, etc.
Does the margin requirement change for different currency pairs or days of the week?
At what point will the broker issue a margin call?
Is it the same for standard and mini accounts?
7. Commissions
Do they charge commissions? (Most market makers' commissions are built into the spread)
8. Rollover Policy

Is there a minimum margin requirement in order to earn rollover interest?
What are the swap rates like for going long or short in a particular currency pair?
Are there any other conditions for earning rollover interest?
9. Trading Platform
How intuitive and functional is it to use?
Are there many disconnections during trading hours?
How reliable is it during fast moving markets and news announcements?
How many different currency pairs can you trade?
Do they offer an Application Programming Interface (API) to allow you to automate your trading system?
Does it offer any other special features? (e.g. One click dealing, trading from the chart, trailing stops, mobile trading etc.)
10. Trading Account
What is the minimum balance required to open an account?
What is the minimum trade size?
Can you adjust the standard lot size traded?

Can you earn interest on the unused margin balance in your account?

Forex Economic Calendar

2009-07-21T07:31:00.000-07:00

Fibonacci Calculator

2009-07-21T07:29:00.000-07:00

Forex Market Monitor

2009-07-21T07:21:00.000-07:00

Pip Calculator

2009-07-21T07:20:00.000-07:00

Pip Value Calculator

Links Forex Websites

2009-07-21T07:16:00.000-07:00

Baby Pips
Investopedia
Trade2Win
Mark's Forex
FuturesMag FXStreet

Forex Magazines & Publications

2009-07-21T07:15:00.000-07:00

Automated Trader
Consensus Weekly
Currency Trader Magazine
Economist Magazine
e-Forex
Euromoney Magazine
FX&MM
FX Trader Magazine
FX Week
Futures Magazine
Global Finance Magazine
Global Investor Magazine
Profit & Loss Magazine
SFO Magazine
Stocks & Commodities Magazine
The Forex Journal
The Traders Journal
Traders World
Your Trading Edge

Forex scam

2009-07-21T07:14:00.000-07:00

A forex (or foreign exchange) scam is any trading scheme used to defraud traders by convincing them that they can expect to gain a high profit by trading in the foreign exchange market. Currency trading "has become the fraud du jour" as of early 2008, according to Michael Dunn of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. [1] But "the market has long been plagued by swindlers preying on the gullible," according to the New York Times [2]. "The average individual foreign-exchange-trading victim loses about $15,000, according to CFTC records" according to The Wall Street Journal. [3] The North American Securities Administrators Association says that "off-exchange forex trading by retail investors is at best extremely risky, and at worst, outright fraud." [4]
“In a typical case, investors may be promised tens of thousands of dollars in profits in just a few weeks or months, with an initial investment of only $5,000. Often, the investor’s money is never actually placed in the market through a legitimate dealer, but simply diverted – stolen – for the personal benefit of the con artists.”[5]
In August, 2008 the CFTC set up a special task force to deal with growing foreign exchange fraud.”[6]
The forex market is a zero-sum game [7] , meaning that whatever one trader gains, another loses, except that brokerage commissions and other transaction costs are subtracted from the results of all traders, technically making forex a "negative-sum" game.
These scams might include churning of customer accounts for the purpose of generating commissions, selling software that is supposed to guide the customer to large profits, [8] improperly managed "managed accounts", [9] false advertising, [10] Ponzi schemes and outright fraud. [4] [11] It also refers to any retail forex broker who indicates that trading foreign exchange is a low risk, high profit investment. [12]
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which loosely regulates the foreign exchange market in the United States, has noted an increase in the amount of unscrupulous activity in the non-bank foreign exchange industry.[13]
An official of the National Futures Association was quoted [14] as saying, "Retail forex trading has increased dramatically over the past few years. Unfortunately, the amount of forex fraud has also increased dramatically..." Between 2001 and 2006 the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has prosecuted more than 80 cases involving the defrauding of more than 23,000 customers who lost $350 million. From 2001 to 2007, about 26,000 people lost $460 million in forex frauds. [1] CNN quoted Godfried De Vidts, President of the Financial Markets Association, a European body, as saying, "Banks have a duty to protect their customers and they should make sure customers understand what they are doing. Now if people go online, on non-bank portals, how is this control being done?"
Contents[hide]
1 Not beating the market
2 The use of high leverage
3 Convicted scammers
4 Under criminal investigation
5 References
6 See also

Not beating the market
The foreign exchange market is a zero sum game [7] in which there are many experienced well-capitalized professional traders (e.g. working for banks) who can devote their attention full time to trading. An inexperienced retail trader will have a significant information disadvantage compared to these traders.
Although it is possible for a few experts to successfully arbitrage the market for an unusually large return, this does not mean that a larger number could earn the same returns even given the same tools, techniques and data sources. This is because the arbitrages are essentially drawn from a pool of finite size; although information about how to capture arbitrages is a nonrival good, the arbritrages themselves are a rival good. (To draw an analogy, the total amount of buried treasure on an island is the same, regardless of how many treasure hunters have bought copies of the treasure map.)
Retail traders are - almost by definition - undercapitalized. Thus they are subject to the problem of gambler's ruin. In a fair game (one with no information advantages) between two players that continues until one trader goes bankrupt, the player with the lower amount of capital has a higher probability of going bankrupt first. Since the retail speculator is effectively playing against the market as a whole - which has nearly infinite capital - he will almost certainly go bankrupt.
The retail trader always pays the bid/ask spread which makes his odds of winning less than those of a fair game. Additional costs may include margin interest, or if a spot position is kept open for more than one day the trade may be "resettled" each day, each time costing the full bid/ask spread.
According to the Wall Street Journal (Currency Markets Draw Speculation, Fraud July 26, 2005) "Even people running the trading shops warn clients against trying to time the market. 'If 15% of day traders are profitable,' says Drew Niv, chief executive of FXCM, 'I'd be surprised.' "[15]
Paul Belogour, the Managing Director of a Boston based retail forex trader, was quoted by the Financial Times as saying, "Trading foreign exchange is an excellent way for investors to find out how tough the markets really are. But I say to customers: if this is money you have worked hard for – that you cannot afford to lose – never, never invest in foreign exchange." [16]

The use of high leverage
By offering high leverage, the market maker encourages traders to trade extremely large positions. This increases the trading volume cleared by the market maker and increases his profits, but increases the risk that the trader will receive a margin call. While professional currency dealers (banks, hedge funds) never use more than 10:1 leverage, retail clients are generally offered leverage between 50:1 and 200:1[2].
A self-regulating body for the foreign exchange market, the National Futures Association, warns traders in a forex training presentation of the risk in trading currency. “As stated at the beginning of this program, off-exchange foreign currency trading carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all customers. The only funds that should ever be used to speculate in foreign currency trading, or any type of highly speculative investment, are funds that represent risk capital; in other words, funds you can afford to lose without affecting your financial situation.“ [17]

Convicted scammers
Russell Cline
Russell Erxleben
Richard Matthews, Jr.
Joel N. Ward

Under criminal investigation
WinCapita [18][19]

Trading in the Retail Off-Exchange

2009-07-21T07:12:00.000-07:00

Trading in the Retail Off-Exchange Foreign Currency Market - What Investors Need to Know - NFA
Understanding the Risks of Trading in the Retail Off-Exchange Foreign Currency Market - NFA

Foreign Currency Trading

2009-07-21T07:11:00.000-07:00

Foreign Currency Trading

UPDATE: On May 22, 2008, the Congress passed H.R. 6124, the Food, Conservation, and Energy Act of 2008 (also known as “the Farm Bill”) which contains several amendments to the Commodity Exchange Act (“CEA”). In particular, Title XIII of the Farm Bill (1) clarifies that the CFTC’s anti-fraud authority applies to certain retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions, (2) creates a new registration category for retail foreign exchange dealers, (3) requires registration for those who solicit orders, exercise discretionary trading authority and operate pools with respect to retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions, and (4) imposes minimum capital requirements for futures commission merchants and retail foreign exchange dealers that act as counterparties to such transactions. Parts of the legislation, particularly those confirming the Commission’s anti-fraud authority, were effective upon passage. Other parts of the legislation, such as those requiring the registration of parties engaged in these transactions and minimum capital requirements, will only be effective upon the Commission’s issuance of final regulations. Any such changes to the information below will be accomplished through notice and comment rulemaking and will be made available in the Federal Register section of CFTC.gov.
A complete description of the amendments to the CEA effected by Title XIII of the Farm Bill can be found in the Joint Statement of Managers, pp. 291-299, which can be accessed through the House Agriculture Committee’s Farm Bill Homepage. Interested parties should monitor the Commission’s website as well as the National Futures Association’s website, for developments.
The CFTC has witnessed increasing numbers, and a growing complexity, of financial investment opportunities in recent years, including a sharp rise in foreign currency (forex) trading scams.
The Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000 (CFMA) made clear that the CFTC has jurisdiction and authority to investigate and take legal action to close down a wide assortment of unregulated firms offering or selling foreign currency futures and options contracts to the general public. The CFTC also has jurisdiction to investigate and prosecute foreign currency fraud occuring in its registered firms and their affiliates. The CFTC issued an advisory in 2001 that discussed these CFMA amendments to the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA), 7 USC 1, et seq.
The Division of Trading and Markets (now Division of Clearing and Intermediary Oversight, or DCIO) issued an advisory in 2002 concerning foreign currency trading by retail customers (PDF). The advisory affirms that off-exchange trading of foreign currency futures and options contracts with retail customers by a counterparty that is not a regulated financial entity as set forth in the CFMA is unlawful. The advisory further states that, if there is a lawful counterparty to the transaction, such as a person registered as a futures commission merchant, the persons acting as intermediaries to such a transaction, that is, in the manner of an introducing broker, commodity trading advisor or commodity pool operator, would not need to register under the CEA if that is their only involvement in futures or option transactions.
DCIO issued an additional advisory in 2007 concerning foreign currency trading by retail customers (PDF). The DCIO Advisory addresses the following issues: (1) registration requirements for associated persons of firms registered as introducing brokers (IBs), commodity trading advisors, and commodity pool operators that are involved in forex transactions; (2) the permissibility of certain unregistered affiliates of a futures commission merchant (FCM) to act as proper counterparties in forex transactions; (3) claims that forex customer funds are segregated; (4) introducing entities acting as FCMs; (5) the applicability of the IB guarantee agreement to forex transactions and prohibiting guaranteed IBs from introducing forex transactions to an FCM that is not its guarantor FCM; (6) prohibiting forex account statements of an FCM’s unregistered affiliate from being included in the FCM’s account statements to its customers; and (7) prohibiting retail customers from acting as counterparties to each other in forex transactions.
Fraud Advisory from the CFTC: Foreign Currency (Forex) Fraud CFTC Brochure on Forex Fraud (PDF)CFTC Brochure on Forex Fraud (HTML)Foreign Exchange Currency Fraud: CFTC/NASAA Investor Alert

Programming in Algorithmic Language MQL4

2009-07-21T07:09:00.002-07:00

Some Basic Concepts

Thus, the subject of our interest is a program written in MQL4. Before we start a detailed presentation of the rules of writing programs, it is necessary to describe the basic concepts that characterize a program and its interrelations with information environment. The MetaTrader 4 Client Terminal is known to work online. The situation on financial markets changes continuously, this affects symbol charts in the client terminal. Ticks provide the client terminal with information about price changes on the market.

The Notion of Tick

Tick is an event that is characterized by a new price of the symbol at some instant.

Ticks are delivered to every client terminal by a server installed in a dealing center. As appropriate to the current market situation, ticks may be received more or less frequently, but each of them brings a new quote - the cost of one currency expressed in terms of another currency.

An application operating with the client terminal may work within a long period of time, for example, several days or weeks. Each application is executed according to the rules set for programs of a certain type. For example, an Expert Advisor (EA) does not work continuously all the time. An Expert Advisor is usually launched at the moment when a new tick comes. For this reason, we don't characterize tick as just a new quote, but as an event to be processed by the client terminal.

The duration of Expert Advisor's operation depends on what program code is included in it. Normal EAs complete one information-processing cycle during some tenths or hundredths of a second. Within this time, the EA can have processed some parameters, make a trading decision, provide the trader with some useful information, etc. Having finished this part of its work, the EA goes to waiting mode until a new tick comes. This new tick launches the Expert Advisor again, the program makes its appropriate operations again and returns to the waiting mode. The detailed description of how the appearance of a new tick influences program operation follows below.

The Notion of Control

Speaking about the code execution flow in a program, as well as its interaction with the client terminal, we will use the term of 'control'.

Control is a process of carrying out of actions preset by the program algorithm and the client terminal features. Control can be transferred within the program from one code line to another one, as well as from the program to the client terminal.

Control is transferred in a way similar to that of giving someone the floor to speak at a meeting. Like speakers address a meeting and then give the floor to others, the client terminal and the program transfer control to each other. At that, the client terminal dominates. Its status is higher than that of the program, like the authority of the chairman of a meeting is larger than those of an ordinary speaker.

Before the program is launched, the control is under the supervision of the client terminal. When a new tick is received, the client terminal transfers the control to the program. The program code starts to be executed at this moment.

The client terminal, after it has transferred the control to the program, does not stop its operation. It continues working with maximum performance during the entire period of time it is launched on PC. The program can only start operating at the moment when the client terminal has transferred control to it (like the chairman of a meeting controls the meeting all the time it is going on, whereas the current speaker takes the word for only a limited period of time).

After it has completed its operation, the program returns control to the client terminal and cannot be launched by its own. However, when the control has already been transferred to the program, it returns control to the client terminal by itself. In other words, the client terminal cannot return control from the program by itself. Dynamic actions of the user (for example, forced termination of the program) are an exemption.

When discussing the matters of performance and internal structures of programs, we are mostly interested in the part of control that is transferred within a program. Let's refer to Fig. 2 that shows the general nature of transferring control to, from and within a program. Circles shown in the figure characterize some small, logically completed fragments of a program, whereas the arrows between the circles show how control is transferred from one fragment to another.

Fig. 2. Transferring control in a program

A program that has accepted control from the client terminal (the executing program) starts to make some actions according to its inherent algorithm. The program contains program lines; general order of program execution consists in sequential transfer of control from one line to another in the top-down direction. What and according to what rules can be written in these lines will be considered below in all details.

Here, it is only important to emphasize that every logically completed fragment is executed - for example, some mathematical calculations are made, a message is displayed on the screen, a trade order is formed, etc. Until the current fragment of the program is executed, it retains the control. After it has been fully completed, the control is transferred to another fragment. Thus, control within a program is transferred from one logically completed fragment to another as they are executed. As soon as the last fragment is executed, the program will transfer (return) control to the client terminal.

The Notion of Comment

A program consists in two types of records: those making the program itself and those being explanatory texts to the program code.

Comment is an optional and nonexecutable part of a program.

So, comment is an optional part of a program. It means that a ready program will work according to its code irrespective of whether there are comments in it or not. However, comments facilitate understanding of the program code very much. There are one-line and multi-line comments. A one-line comment is any sequence of characters following double slash (//). The sign of a one-line comment is ended by line feed. A multi-line comment starts with the characters of /* and is ended by */ (see Fig. 3).

Full Guide mql4

INTRODUCTION - Technical Analysis

2009-07-21T07:09:00.001-07:00

Should I buy today? What will prices be tomorrow, next week, or next year? Wouldn't investing be easy if we knew the answers to these seemingly simple questions? Alas, if you are reading this book in the hope that technical analysis has the answers to these questions, I'm afraid I have to disappoint you early--it doesn't. However, if you are reading this book with the hope that technical analysis will improve your investing, I have good news--it will!

Some history

The term "technical analysis" is a complicated sounding name for a very basic approach to investing. Simply put, technical analysis is the study of prices, with charts being the primary tool.

The roots of modern-day technical analysis stem from the Dow Theory, developed around 1900 by Charles Dow. Stemming either directly or indirectly from the Dow Theory, these roots include such principles as the trending nature of prices, prices discounting all known information, confirmation and divergence, volume mirroring changes in price, and support/resistance. And of course, the widely followed Dow Jones Industrial Average is a direct offspring of the Dow Theory.

Charles Dow's contribution to modern-day technical analysis cannot be understated. His focus on the basics of security price movement gave rise to a completely new method of analyzing the markets.

The human element

The price of a security represents a consensus. It is the price at which one person agrees to buy and another agrees to sell. The price at which an investor is willing to buy or sell depends primarily on his expectations. If he expects the security's price to rise, he will buy it; if the investor expects the price to fall, he will sell it. These simple statements are the cause of a major challenge in forecasting security prices, because they refer to human expectations. As we all know firsthand, humans are not easily quantifiable nor predictable. This fact alone will keep any mechanical trading system from working consistently.

Because humans are involved, I am sure that much of the world's investment decisions are based on irrelevant criteria. Our relationships with our family, our neighbors, our employer, the traffic, our income, and our previous success and failures, all influence our confidence, expectations, and decisions.

Security prices are determined by money managers and home managers, students and strikers, doctors and dog catchers, lawyers and landscapers, and the wealthy and the wanting. This breadth of market participants guarantees an element of unpredictability and excitement.

Fundamental analysis

If we were all totally logical and could separate our emotions from our investment decisions, then, fundamental analysis the determination of price based on future earnings, would work magnificently. And since we would all have the same completely logical expectations, prices would only change when quarterly reports or relevant news was released. Investors would seek "overlooked" fundamental data in an effort to find undervalued securities.

The hotly debated "efficient market theory" states that security prices represent everything that is known about the security at a given moment. This theory concludes that it is impossible to forecast prices, since prices already reflect everything that is currently known about the security.

The future can be found in the past

If prices are based on investor expectations, then knowing what a security should sell for (i.e., fundamental analysis) becomes less important than knowing what other investors expect it to sell for. That's not to say that knowing what a security should sell for isn't important--it is. But there is usually a fairly strong consensus of a stock's future earnings that the average investor cannot disprove.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
---Sir Arthur Wing Pinero, 1893

Technical analysis is the process of analyzing a security's historical prices in an effort to determine probable future prices. This is done by comparing current price action (i.e., current expectations) with comparable historical price action to predict a reasonable outcome. The devout technician might define this process as the fact that history repeats itself while others would suffice to say that we should learn from the past.

The roulette wheel

In my experience, only a minority of technicians can consistently and accurately determine future prices. However, even if you are unable to accurately forecast prices, technical analysis can be used to consistently reduce your risks and improve your profits.

The best analogy I can find on how technical analysis can improve your investing is a roulette wheel. I use this analogy with reservation, as gamblers have very little control when compared to investors (although considering the actions of many investors, gambling may be a very appropriate analogy).

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: when he can't afford it, and when he can."
---Mark Twain, 1897

A casino makes money on a roulette wheel, not by knowing what number will come up next, but by slightly improving their odds with the addition of a "0" and "00."

Similarly, when an investor purchases a security, he doesn't know that its price will rise. But if he buys a stock when it is in a rising trend, after a minor sell off, and when interest rates are falling, he will have improved his odds of making a profit. That's not gambling--it's intelligence. Yet many investors buy securities without attempting to control the odds.

Contrary to popular belief, you do not need to know what a security's price will be in the future to make money. Your goal should simply be to improve the odds of making profitable trades. Even if your analysis is as simple as determining the long-, intermediate-, and short-term trends of the security, you will have gained an edge that you would not have without technical analysis.

Consider the chart of Merck in Figure 1 where the trend is obviously down and there is no sign of a reversal. While the company may have great earnings prospects and fundamentals, it just doesn't make sense to buy the security until there is some technical evidence in the price that this trend is changing.

Figure 1

Automated trading

If we accept the fact that human emotions and expectations play a role in security pricing, we should also admit that our emotions play a role in our decision making. Many investors try to remove their emotions from their investing by using computers to make decisions for them. The concept of a "HAL," the intelligent computer in the movie 2001, is appealing.

Mechanical trading systems can help us remove our emotions from our decisions. Computer testing is also useful to determine what has happened historically under various conditions and to help us optimize our trading techniques. Yet since we are analyzing a less than logical subject (human emotions and expectations), we must be careful that our mechanical systems don't mislead us into thinking that we are analyzing a logical entity.

That is not to say that computers aren't wonderful technical analysis tools--they are indispensable. In my totally biased opinion, technical analysis software has done more to level the playing field for the average investor than any other non-regulatory event. But as a provider of technical analysis tools, I caution you not to let the software lull you into believing markets are as logical and predictable as the computer you use to analyze them.

Technical Analysis

2009-07-21T07:08:00.000-07:00

Guide to Technical Analysis - by Incredible Charts
Technical Analysis from A to Z - by MarketScreen

School of Pipsology

2009-07-21T07:06:00.000-07:00

Forex education is crucial for beginners.
BabyPips.com’s School of Pipsology is designed to help you acquire the skills, knowledge, and abilities to become a successful trader in the foreign exchange market. Our definition of a successful trader is having the ability to do three things:
Make pips
Keep pips
Repeat
If you can repeatedly do these three things, then you're on your way! But it's no cakewalk.
Remember when you attended grade school? No? Well, according to our memories, here's how it worked.
You start schooling at the age of five and enter Kindergarten. The next year you enter 1st Grade. If you pass, the next year you enter 2nd Grade, and so on, all the way up to the 12th Grade. Depending on what grade you're in, you'd attend one of three schools:
Elementary school (Kindergarten - 5th grade)
Middle school (6th grade - 8th grade)
High school (9th grade - 12th grade)
This is how our lessons are broken apart, so you can relive the past and also be able to learn and study forex trading techniques at your own pace – but our high school goes beyond the 12th grade!
But there's more!
Learning doesn't end in high school!
If you've done well throughout grade school, you get a full scholarship to our college! All expenses paid and we won't even require you to fill out any applications or write essays. What a deal!
Our curriculum here at the School of Pipsology will make a bold attempt to cover all aspects of forex trading. You will learn how to identify trading opportunities, how to time the market (aka smart guessing), and when to take profits or close a trade.
But that's not all folks.
You will also learn how to predict the future and never have a losing trade.
Yeah right. In your dreams pal.
But there is plenty more to learn and you'll just have to see for yourself!

School of Pipsology Curriculum:
Pre-school
Forex Basics
ELEMENTARY SCHOOL
Kindergarten
Types of charts
1st Grade
Japanese Candlesticks
2nd Grade
Support and Resistance, Trend Lines, and Channels
3rd Grade
Fibonacci
4th Grade
Moving Averages
5th Grade
Common Chart IndicatorsBollinger Bands, MACD, Stochastics, RSI, and Parabolic SAR
MIDDLE SCHOOL
6th Grade
Oscillators and Momentum Indicators
7th Grade
Important Chart Patterns
8th Grade
Forex Pivot Points
HIGH SCHOOL
9th Grade
Multiple time frames
10th Grade
Elliott Wave Theory
11th Grade
Create Your Own Trading System
12th Grade
Market Hours - Know When to Trade
13th Grade
Money Management
14th Grade
Plan Your Trade and Trade Your Plan
COLLEGE

Multiple Trading Personality Disorder

Trading News

Market Sentiment

U.S. Dollar Index

Carry Trade

The Lazy Forex Trader's Way to Riches

Be a Forex Trader, Not a Forex Sucker

The Number One Cause of Death for Forex Traders

Commodity Currencies

Currency Crosses

Divergence Trading

Support and Resistance

2009-07-21T07:05:00.000-07:00

Support and resistance represent key junctures where the forces of supply and demand meet. In the financial markets, prices are driven by excessive supply (down) and demand (up). Supply is synonymous with bearish, bears and selling. Demand is synonymous with bullish, bulls and buying. These terms are used interchangeably throughout this and other articles. As demand increases, prices advance and as supply increases, prices decline. When supply and demand are equal, prices move sideways as bulls and bears slug it out for control.

What Is Support?
Support is the price level at which demand is thought to be strong enough to prevent the price from declining further. The logic dictates that as the price declines towards support and gets cheaper, buyers become more inclined to buy and sellers become less inclined to sell. By the time the price reaches the support level, it is believed that demand will overcome supply and prevent the price from falling below support.

Support does not always hold and a break below support signals that the bears have won out over the bulls. A decline below support indicates a new willingness to sell and/or a lack of incentive to buy. Support breaks and new lows signal that sellers have reduced their expectations and are willing sell at even lower prices. In addition, buyers could not be coerced into buying until prices declined below support or below the previous low. Once support is broken, another support level will have to be established at a lower level.

Where Is Support Established?
Support levels are usually below the current price, but it is not uncommon for a security to trade at or near support. Technical analysis is not an exact science and it is sometimes difficult to set exact support levels. In addition, price movements can be volatile and dip below support briefly. Sometimes it does not seem logical to consider a support level broken if the price closes 1/8 below the established support level. For this reason, some traders and investors establish support zones.

What Is Resistance?
Resistance is the price level at which selling is thought to be strong enough to prevent the price from rising further. The logic dictates that as the price advances towards resistance, sellers become more inclined to sell and buyers become less inclined to buy. By the time the price reaches the resistance level, it is believed that supply will overcome demand and prevent the price from rising above resistance.

Resistance does not always hold and a break above resistance signals that the bulls have won out over the bears. A break above resistance shows a new willingness to buy and/or a lack of incentive to sell. Resistance breaks and new highs indicate buyers have increased their expectations and are willing to buy at even higher prices. In addition, sellers could not be coerced into selling until prices rose above resistance or above the previous high. Once resistance is broken, another resistance level will have to be established at a higher level.

Where Is Resistance Established?
Resistance levels are usually above the current price, but it is not uncommon for a security to trade at or near resistance. In addition, price movements can be volatile and rise above resistance briefly. Sometimes it does not seem logical to consider a resistance level broken if the price closes 1/8 above the established resistance level. For this reason, some traders and investors establish resistance zones.

Methods to Establish Support and Resistance?
Support and resistance are like mirror images and have many common characteristics.

Highs and Lows
Support can be established with the previous reaction lows. Resistance can be established by using the previous reaction highs.

The above chart for Halliburton (HAL) shows a large trading range between Dec-99 and Mar-00. Support was established with the October low around 33. In December, the stock returned to support in the mid-thirties and formed a low around 34. Finally, in February the stock again returned to the support scene and formed a low around 33 1/2.

After each bounce off support, the stock traded all the way up to resistance. Resistance was first established by the September support break at 42.5. After a support level is broken, it can turn into a resistance level. From the October lows, the stock advanced to the new support-turned-resistance level around 42.5. When the stock failed to advance past 42.5, the resistance level was confirmed. The stock subsequently traded up to 42.5 two more times after that and failed to surpass resistance both times.

Support Equals Resistance
Another principle of technical analysis stipulates that support can turn into resistance and visa versa. Once the price breaks below a support level, the broken support level can turn into resistance. The break of support signals that the forces of supply have overcome the forces of demand. Therefore, if the price returns to this level, there is likely to be an increase in supply, and hence resistance.

The other turn of the coin is resistance turning into support. As the price advances above resistance, it signals changes in supply and demand. The breakout above resistance proves that the forces of demand have overwhelmed the forces of supply. If the price returns to this level, there is likely to be an increase in demand and support will be found.

In this example of the NASDAQ 100 Index ($NDX), the stock broke resistance at 935 in May-97 and traded just above this resistance level for over a month. The ability to remain above resistance established 935 as a new support level. The stock subsequently rose to 1150, but then fell back to test support at 935. After the second test of support at 935, this level is well established.

From the PeopleSoft (PSFT) example, we can see that support can turn into resistance and then back into support. PeopleSoft found support at 18 from Oct-98 to Jan-99 (green oval), but broke below support in Mar-99 as the bears overpowered the bulls. When the stock rebounded (red oval), there was still overhead supply at 18 and resistance was met from Jun-99 to Oct-99.

Where does this overhead supply come from? Demand was obviously increasing around 18 from Oct-98 to Mar-99 (green oval). Therefore, there were a lot of buyers in the stock around 18. When the price declined past 18 and to around 14, many of these buyers were probably still holding the stock. This left a supply overhang (commonly known as resistance) around 18. When the stock rebounded to 18, many of the green-oval-buyers (who bought around 18) probably took the opportunity to sell. When this supply was exhausted, the demand was able to overpower supply and advance above resistance at 18.

Trading Range
Trading ranges can play an important role in determining support and resistance as turning points or as continuation patterns. A trading range is a period of time when prices move within a relatively tight range. This signals that the forces of supply and demand are evenly balanced. When the price breaks out of the trading range, above or below, it signals that a winner has emerged. A break above is a victory for the bulls (demand) and a break below is a victory for the bears (supply).

After an extended advance from 27 to 64, WorldCom (WCOM) entered into a trading range between 55 and 63 for about 5 months. There was a false breakout in mid-June when the stock briefly poked its head above 62 (red oval). This did not last long and a gap down a few days later nullified the breakout (black arrow). The stock then proceeded to break support at 55 in Aug-99 and trade as low as 50. Here is another example of support turned resistance as the stock bounced off 55 two more times before heading lower. While this does not always happen, a return to the new resistance level offers a second chance for longs to get out and shorts to enter the fray.

In Nov/Dec-99, Lucent Technologies (LU) formed a trading range that resembled a head and shoulders pattern (red oval). When the stock broke support at 60, there was little or no time to exit. Even though the there is a long black candlestick indicating an open at 59, the stock fell so fast that it was impossible to exit above 44. In hindsight, the support line could have been drawn as an upward sloping neckline (blue line), and the support break would have come at 61. This is only 1 point higher and a trader would have had to take action immediately to avoid a sharp fall. However, the lows match up rather nicely on the neckline, and it is something to consider when drawing support lines.

After Lucent declined, a trading range was established between 40.5 and 47.5 for almost two months (green oval). The resistance level of the trading range was well marked by three reaction peaks at 47.5. The support level was not as clearly marked, but appeared to be between 40 and 41. Some buying interest began to become evident around 44 in mid- to late-February. Notice the array of candlesticks with long lower shadows, or hammers, as they are known. The stock then proceeded to form two up gaps on 24-Feb and 25-Feb, and finally closed above resistance at 48. This was a clear indication of demand winning out over supply. There were still two more opportunities (days) to get in on the action. On the third day after the breakout, the stock gapped up and moved above 56.

Support and Resistance Zones
Because technical analysis is not an exact science, it is useful to create support and resistance zones. This is contrary to the strategy mapped out for Lucent Technologies (LU), but it is sometimes the case. Each security has its own characteristics, and analysis should reflect the intricacies of the security. Sometimes, exact support and resistance levels are best, and, sometimes, zones work better. Generally, the tighter the range, the more exact the level. If the trading range spans less than 2 months and the price range is relatively tight, then more exact support and resistance levels are best suited. If a trading range spans many months and the price range is relatively large, then it is best to use support and resistance zones. These are only meant as general guidelines, and each trading range should be judged on its own merits.

Returning to the analysis of Halliburton (HAL), we can see that the November high of the trading range (33 to 44) extended more than 20% past the low, making the range quite large relative to the price. Because the September support break forms our first resistance level, we are ready to set up a resistance zone after the November high is formed, probably around early December. At this point though, we are still unsure if a large trading range will develop. The subsequent low in December, which was just higher than the October low, offers evidence that a trading range is forming, and we are ready to set the support zone. As long as the stock trades within the boundaries set by the support and resistance zone, we will consider the trading range to be valid. Support may be looked upon as an opportunity to buy, and resistance as an opportunity to sell.

Conclusion
Identification of key support and resistance levels is an essential ingredient to successful technical analysis. Even though it is sometimes difficult to establish exact support and resistance levels, being aware of their existence and location can greatly enhance analysis and forecasting abilities. If a security is approaching an important support level, it can serve as an alert to be extra vigilant in looking for signs of increased buying pressure and a potential reversal. If a security is approaching a resistance level, it can act as an alert to look for signs of increased selling pressure and potential reversal. If a support or resistance level is broken, it signals that the relationship between supply and demand has changed. A resistance breakout signals that demand (bulls) has gained the upper hand and a support break signals that supply (bears) has won the battle.

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What Are Charts?

2009-07-21T06:58:00.000-07:00

A price chart is a sequence of prices plotted over a specific time frame. In statistical terms, charts are referred to as time series plots.

On the chart, the y-axis (vertical axis) represents the price scale and the x-axis (horizontal axis) represents the time scale. Prices are plotted from left to right across the x-axis with the most recent plot being the furthest right. The price plot for IBM extends from January 1, 1999 to March 13, 2000.

Technicians, technical analysts and chartists use charts to analyze a wide array of securities and forecast future price movements. The word "securities" refers to any tradable financial instrument or quantifiable index such as stocks, bonds, commodities, futures or market indices. Any security with price data over a period of time can be used to form a chart for analysis.

While technical analysts use charts almost exclusively, the use of charts is not limited to just technical analysis. Because charts provide an easy-to-read graphical representation of a security's price movement over a specific period of time, they can also be of great benefit to fundamental analysts. A graphical historical record makes it easy to spot the effect of key events on a security's price, its performance over a period of time and whether it's trading near its highs, near its lows, or in between.

How to Pick a Time Frame
The time frame used for forming a chart depends on the compression of the data: intraday, daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly or annual data. The less compressed the data is, the more detail is displayed.

Daily data is made up of intraday data that has been compressed to show each day as a single data point, or period. Weekly data is made up of daily data that has been compressed to show each week as a single data point. The difference in detail can be seen with the daily and weekly chart comparison above. 100 data points (or periods) on the daily chart is equal to the last 5 months of the weekly chart, which is shown by the data marked in the rectangle. The more the data is compressed, the longer the time frame possible for displaying the data. If the chart can display 100 data points, a weekly chart will hold 100 weeks (almost 2 years). A daily chart that displays 100 days would represent about 5 months. There are about 20 trading days in a month and about 252 trading days in a year. The choice of data compression and time frame depends on the data available and your trading or investing style.

Traders usually concentrate on charts made up of daily and intraday data to forecast short-term price movements. The shorter the time frame and the less compressed the data is, the more detail that is available. While long on detail, short-term charts can be volatile and contain a lot of noise. Large sudden price movements, wide high-low ranges and price gaps can affect volatility, which can distort the overall picture.
Investors usually focus on weekly and monthly charts to spot long-term trends and forecast long-term price movements. Because long-term charts (typically 1-4 years) cover a longer time frame with compressed data, price movements do not appear as extreme and there is often less noise.
Others might use a combination of long-term and short-term charts. Long-term charts are good for analyzing the large picture to get a broad perspective of the historical price action. Once the general picture is analyzed, a daily chart can be used to zoom in on the last few months.
How Are Charts Formed?
We will be explaining the construction of line, bar, candlestick and point & figure charts. Although there are other methods available, these are 4 of the most popular methods for displaying price data.

Line Chart

Some investors and traders consider the closing level to be more important than the open, high or low. By paying attention to only the close, intraday swings can be ignored. Line charts are also used when open, high and low data points are not available. Sometimes only closing data are available for certain indices, thinly traded stocks and intraday prices.

Bar Chart
Perhaps the most popular charting method is the bar chart. The high, low and close are required to form the price plot for each period of a bar chart. The high and low are represented by the top and bottom of the vertical bar and the close is the short horizontal line crossing the vertical bar. On a daily chart, each bar represents the high, low and close for a particular day. Weekly charts would have a bar for each week based on Friday's close and the high and low for that week.

Bar charts can also be displayed using the open, high, low and close. The only difference is the addition of the open price, which is displayed as a short horizontal line extending to the left of the bar. Whether or not a bar chart includes the open depends on the data available.

Bar charts can be effective for displaying a large amount of data. Using candlesticks, 200 data points can take up a lot of room and look cluttered. Line charts show less clutter, but do not offer as much detail (no high-low range). The individual bars that make up the bar chart are relatively skinny, which allows users the ability to fit more bars before the chart gets cluttered. If you are not interested in the opening price, bar charts are an ideal method for analyzing the close relative to the high and low. In addition, bar charts that include the open will tend to get cluttered quicker. If you are interested in the opening price, candlestick charts probably offer a better alternative.

Candlestick Chart
Originating in Japan over 300 years ago, candlestick charts have become quite popular in recent years. For a candlestick chart, the open, high, low and close are all required. A daily candlestick is based on the open price, the intraday high and low, and the close. A weekly candlestick is based on Monday's open, the weekly high-low range and Friday's close.

Many traders and investors believe that candlestick charts are easy to read, especially the relationship between the open and the close. White (clear) candlesticks form when the close is higher than the open and black (solid) candlesticks form when the close is lower than the open. The white and black portion formed from the open and close is called the body (white body or black body). The lines above and below are called shadows and represent the high and low.

Point & Figure Chart
The charting methods shown above, all, plot one data point for each period of time. No matter how much price movement, each day or week represented is one point, bar, or candlestick along the time scale. Even if the price is unchanged from day to day or week to week, a dot, bar, or candlestick is plotted to mark the price action. Contrary to this methodology, point & figure Charts are based solely on price movement, and do not take time into consideration. There is an x-axis but it does not extend evenly across the chart.

The beauty of point & figure charts is their simplicity. Little or no price movement is deemed irrelevant and therefore not duplicated on the chart. Only price movements that exceed specified levels are recorded. This focus on price movement makes it easier to identify support and resistance levels, bullish breakouts and bearish breakdowns. This P&F article has a more detailed explanation of point & figure charts.

Price Scaling
There are two methods for displaying the price scale along the y-axis: arithmetic and logarithmic. An arithmetic scale displays 10 points (or dollars) as the same vertical distance no matter what the price level. Each unit of measure is the same throughout the entire scale. If a stock advances from 10 to 80 over a 6-month period, the move from 10 to 20 will appear to be the same distance as the move from 70 to 80. Even though this move is the same in absolute terms, it is not the same in percentage terms.

A logarithmic scale measures price movements in percentage terms. An advance from 10 to 20 would represent an increase of 100%. An advance from 20 to 40 would also be 100%, as would an advance from 40 to 80. All three of these advances would appear as the same vertical distance on a logarithmic scale. Most charting programs refer to the logarithmic scale as a semi-log scale, because the time axis is still displayed arithmetically.

The chart above uses the 4th-Quarter performance of VeriSign to illustrate the difference in scaling. On the semi-log scale, the distance between 50 and 100 is the same as the distance between 100 and 200. However, on the arithmetic scale, the distance between 100 and 200 is significantly greater than the distance between 50 and 100.

Key points on the benefits of arithmetic and semi-log scales:

Arithmetic scales are useful when the price range is confined within a relatively tight range.
Arithmetic scales are useful for short-term charts and trading. Price movements (particularly for stocks) are shown in absolute dollar terms and reflect movements dollar for dollar.
Semi-log scales are useful when the price has moved significantly, be it over a short or extended time frame
Trend lines tend to match lows better on semi-log scales.
Semi-log scales are useful for long-term charts to gauge the percentage movements over a long period of time. Large movements are put into perspective.
Stocks and many other securities are judged in relative terms through the use of ratios such as PE, Price/Revenues and Price/Book. With this in mind, it also makes sense to analyze price movements in percentage terms.
Conclusions
Even though many different charting techniques are available, one method is not necessarily better than the other. The data may be the same, but each method will provide its own unique interpretation, with its own benefits and drawbacks. A breakout on the point & figure chart may not occur in unison with a breakout in a candlestick chart. Signals that are available on candlestick charts may not appear on bar charts. How the security's price is displayed, be it a bar chart or candlestick chart, with an arithmetic scale or semi-log scale, is not the most important aspect. After all, the data is the same and price action is price action. When all is said and done, it is the analysis of the price action that separates successful technicians from not-so-successful technicians. The choice of which charting method to use will depend on personal preferences and trading or investing styles. Once you have chosen a particular charting methodology, it is probably best to stick with it and learn how best to read the signals. Switching back and forth may cause confusion and undermine the focus of your analysis. Faulty analysis is rarely caused by the chart. Before blaming your charting method for missing a signal, first look at your analysis.

The keys to successful chart analysis are dedication, focus, and consistency:

Dedication: Learn the basics of chart analysis, apply your knowledge on a regular basis, and continue your development.
Focus: Limit the number of charts, indicators and methods you use. Learn how to use them, and learn how to use them well.
Consistency: Maintain your charts on a regular basis and study them often (daily if possible

How to Use Elliott Wave Analysis to Boost Your Forex Trading

2009-07-21T06:57:00.001-07:00

Tips From a Pro: How To Trade Forex With Elliott Wave

2009-07-21T06:55:00.000-07:00

A FREE Report and FREE Video Lesson from EWI’s Chief Currency Strategist
Not since the U.S. Dollar Index (a measure of the dollar's strength against a basket of six other currencies) was created in 1973 has the greenback been as weak as it was back in April and July of 2008. That's when the euro-dollar exchange rate hit the $1.60 mark.
At that time, it seemed that the days of the dollar as the world's reserve currency were numbered. But – to the surprise of many forex traders – since then, the USD has enjoyed a truly remarkable recovery. On October 21, the EURUSD hit a fresh low of near $1.30, clinching a staggering 30-cent gain by the dollar in a matter of just three months.
Once again, the dollar has proved its role as a "safe haven" currency, and once again it's the center of the global financial community's attention. It will likely stay in the spotlight for a while. And that could be good for the forex market.
Currency trading is already the largest and most liquid market on the planet, with the daily volume being 10 times larger than the combined daily turnover on all of the world's stock exchanges. You may have heard that Elliott wave analysis is something many forex traders use. It's true; wave analysis is not a crystal ball, but it helps you accomplish three crucial goals: identify the trend, stay with it, and know when the trend is likely over.
We at Elliott Wave International have many resources that can help you to learn Elliott – but nothing helps you learn faster than watching a good teacher. Check out these two FREE resources:
FREE Video Lesson: How To Trade Forex With Elliott WaveIn early November 2007, EWI's Senior Currency Strategist Jim Martens taught a live 3-hour course on trading with Elliott in Denver, CO. What you are about to see is a condensed, 20-plus-minute version of Jim's course, the highlights of his best insights. Here's what you'll learn:
At its core, Elliott wave analysis is simple. Watch Jim explain why.
What Elliott waves are best for trading forex?
How do I identify trade setups?
At what point in a wave pattern do I enter a trade?
Your FREE Report: Discovering How To Use the Elliott Wave Principle Dig in and learn with this informative beginners piece on the basics of the Elliott Wave Principle. It will introduce you to the basic Elliott wave pattern and how to identify key trends and turns in the markets, plus much more.