tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5327837085518061485Mon, 02 Sep 2024 02:17:49 +0000cellestisquantiferontuberculosiscellestis financialadmincellestis technicalchatinvestingdividendsnbnAFRrsptsharemarketsharesshower drinkingtelstrahttp://forrestthinks.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.com (Unknown)Blogger125125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5327837085518061485.post-1378732224722277229Fri, 15 Apr 2011 05:51:00 +00002011-04-15T15:51:25.785+10:00cellestisWe all know the old saying "Price is what you pay, Value is what you receive". Cellestis is the absolute demonstration of this. We have been offered the justification for this lowball offer that the price is 24% above the one month Volume Weighted Average Price.  That is simply a failure of logic. As investors, we want a recognition of the Value of our investment, not a comparison price to ahttp://forrestthinks.blogspot.com/2011/04/value-vs-price.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (forrestgump)12tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5327837085518061485.post-4131338502955643943Tue, 12 Apr 2011 00:56:00 +00002011-04-12T10:56:27.120+10:00I know that you would have expected much comment here from me regarding the proposed takeover of Cellestis. No doubt there will be. However, in the meantime, may I suggest that you take the short hop across to the Cellestis Shareholders Action Group Website to keep abreast of all matters regarding this takeover. If, like me, you want a better outcome than this then I also suggest http://forrestthinks.blogspot.com/2011/04/where-am-i.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (forrestgump)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5327837085518061485.post-4955498617842367872Thu, 07 Apr 2011 02:51:00 +00002011-04-07T12:51:13.609+10:00cellestisFirstly let me make a statement. "I reject the offer of $3.55 for my shares in Cellestis" Now. If we are to achieve a better outcome for ourselves then we must work together towards that. There are probably only a handful of times in most persons lives where they need to stand up and be counted. This is one of those times for us. Over the coming days we will need to better define our http://forrestthinks.blogspot.com/2011/04/action.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (forrestgump)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5327837085518061485.post-4426941449202555262Wed, 06 Apr 2011 22:50:00 +00002011-04-07T08:50:15.015+10:00Good Morning Everybody, Just a pre alert. I have rearranged my personal life (yes, I do have one) in anticipation of dedicating myself to the battle for the next few months. Today I hope to take the first steps to putting an organization into place. I am not by any means placing myself in control of the organization. Just putting the first steps in place that will benefit us as we move forwardhttp://forrestthinks.blogspot.com/2011/04/good-morning.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (forrestgump)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5327837085518061485.post-2763676164921060956Wed, 06 Apr 2011 01:20:00 +00002011-04-06T11:20:33.065+10:00I have been asked by many people why I have not yet commented more on this issue. The reason is simply that we (the shareholders) have a number of courses open to us to achieve a number of different outcomes and I want to be sure in my mind that my actions achieve the best possible outcome for us, the shareholders. One of those options is to sell the Company into the takeover. I can say that, http://forrestthinks.blogspot.com/2011/04/what-to-do.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (forrestgump)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5327837085518061485.post-8883991878293019665Tue, 05 Apr 2011 04:40:00 +00002011-05-18T15:59:50.187+10:00Where do we go from here? Rather than jump in immediately with an emotive response to this takeover offer, I have tried to take a little time, allow my emotions to settle down and try to reach some conclusions. It is clear that whatever happens now, we cannot go back to the situation we had before this bombshell was dropped on us. In actuality, we need to establish and find our way to, the "http://forrestthinks.blogspot.com/2011/04/trying-to-make-sense-of-this.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (forrestgump)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5327837085518061485.post-8699836666023191242Mon, 04 Apr 2011 01:40:00 +00002011-04-04T11:40:53.513+10:00Just in case some of you haven't caught up with the news, there has been a takeover of CST announced at $3.55. The Directors are recommending acceptance. I won't make any comment at this stage, until I have absorbed all the facts and information. http://www.cellestis.com/IRM/Company/ShowPage.aspx?CPID=1871&EID=27240511http://forrestthinks.blogspot.com/2011/04/cst-takeover.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (forrestgump)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5327837085518061485.post-3377320777112919039Wed, 16 Feb 2011 03:13:00 +00002011-02-17T19:13:37.727+11:00cellestisThis discussion follows on from my previous post (EBIT +46%). From the comments that have been posted and private correspondence received, two facts have become clear to me. I didn't do a very good job of making it really clear what I was talking about. There is some value to be had from discussing tax a little more. Let's quickly knock over number 1 first. Cellestis is a young Company. You http://forrestthinks.blogspot.com/2011/02/taxing-stuff.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (forrestgump)2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5327837085518061485.post-2815477999900569651Mon, 14 Feb 2011 21:30:00 +00002011-02-16T08:06:13.010+11:00cellestisI have to be honest, I hadn't really thought about the importance of EBIT (Earnings Before Interest & Tax) as a measure of the financial success of a growing business. It is only when I looked carefully at the Cellestis 2011 H1 results that I realized why this gives us a picture of what is happening (financially) with our company. Tax is, to all intents and purposes, something that is http://forrestthinks.blogspot.com/2011/02/ebit-46.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (forrestgump)6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5327837085518061485.post-566559749471807156Mon, 14 Feb 2011 04:44:00 +00002011-02-14T17:04:52.289+11:00Updated CST Data Sheets with 2011 H1 figures included.http://forrestthinks.blogspot.com/2011/02/cst-data-sheets.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (forrestgump)1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5327837085518061485.post-4508547050051613338Mon, 14 Feb 2011 02:03:00 +00002011-02-14T13:42:06.614+11:00cellestisAgain, if we are to accept the predictions from the Shaw Stockbroking Cellestis report, then it is hard to miss the progressive cash position of the Company. Because the report assumes a relatively low dividend payout ratio (54% to 61%) the cash holdings of the Company grow quite rapidly. By 2018 the cash pile has built to over $200m. By 2023 it would be approaching $400m. (All done using the http://forrestthinks.blogspot.com/2011/02/cash.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (forrestgump)2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5327837085518061485.post-2362862295177677656Sat, 12 Feb 2011 06:17:00 +00002011-02-12T17:49:54.238+11:00Browsing the Cellestis report from Shaw Stockbroking got me thinking again. Now there's nothing to say that their numbers are correct but let's just for a moment presume that they are. Perhaps I'm a bit different from other people in that I am totally interested in the return that I get from my investments, not what I might get if I sold them. That is, I don't care too much about the Share http://forrestthinks.blogspot.com/2011/02/luscious-dividends.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (forrestgump)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5327837085518061485.post-6104686282330438966Fri, 11 Feb 2011 05:38:00 +00002011-02-11T16:38:51.365+11:00cellestisWell, with Valentines day approaching I guess we all look forward to a little lovin'. Shaw Stockbroking have come to the party.  As many of us would know, Shaw have been interested observers of CST for many years but have not published any official coverage. Finally, they have now initiated coverage of Cellestis. With their kind permission I am able to pass on their Broker Report. http://forrestthinks.blogspot.com/2011/02/shaw-thing.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (forrestgump)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5327837085518061485.post-788079985844185650Fri, 07 Jan 2011 09:03:00 +00002011-01-07T20:03:20.973+11:00As Rog has reported, Cellestis have released their latest QFT News which is primarily all about the superiority of QFT in identifying those with latent TB that will progress to active TB as demonstrated by the large scale, longitudinal study by Diel et al. It's a very worthwhile read. At the same time, the Company have released a web resource dedicated to the issue of TB Progression.  http://forrestthinks.blogspot.com/2011/01/qft-news-progression.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (forrestgump)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5327837085518061485.post-2069349570477652832Sun, 02 Jan 2011 08:33:00 +00002011-01-04T16:15:01.146+11:00cellestisquantiferonAs Rog has already reported, the results of the long awaited longitudinal study by Diel has finally been formally published. Whilst I have discussed the findings from this study previously here and here its importance is such that it is well worth discussing again. Firstly (and we will see this in the following), this study gives the Company some really solid, incontrovertible evidencehttp://forrestthinks.blogspot.com/2011/01/big-diel.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (forrestgump)4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5327837085518061485.post-6273281970902670396Sun, 02 Jan 2011 03:52:00 +00002011-01-02T14:55:15.419+11:00G'day "Anonymous", You have commented: "More grandstanding from the master of sophistry masked in verbal diarrhea. If this is a thesis, your pretensions to academia fail, but keep up the ramp as your "investments" dwindle. If your ramp succeeds you may be able to sell to some more "suckers" north of 2.50 as would appear the motive behind this so-called thesis." I always appreciate comments thathttp://forrestthinks.blogspot.com/2011/01/dear-anonymous.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (forrestgump)17tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5327837085518061485.post-386532991124526413Thu, 30 Dec 2010 08:52:00 +00002010-12-31T08:05:59.520+11:00cellestisI've been thinking a lot recently about why it is that many of the comments that I see and hear about people's feelings about their investments seem to make no sense to me. Intuitively, they immediately strike me as illogical. It has taken a lot of thinking but I finally feel that I have managed to understand the situation. Intuition is not actually a concept that I really like but, in truth, ithttp://forrestthinks.blogspot.com/2010/12/investment-performance-vs-investor.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (forrestgump)9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5327837085518061485.post-5911986461017926043Thu, 09 Dec 2010 05:16:00 +00002010-12-09T17:04:48.224+11:00cellestisIt seems that, once again, some people are a little confused about the difference between latent TB (LTBI) and active TB. The recent announcement that WHO has endorsed the Xpert MTB/RIF fast diagnostic for active TB appears to have created some (unwarranted) nervousness amongst CST investors. Let's see if we can clearly put this to rest once and for all. We can look at this from a couple of http://forrestthinks.blogspot.com/2010/12/once-and-for-all.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (forrestgump)5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5327837085518061485.post-7003587955115043425Tue, 16 Nov 2010 08:02:00 +00002010-11-16T19:06:41.187+11:00cellestisWell, well, well. After so many years of trying to make intelligent guesses about the future financials of Cellestis, out of the blue the Company has given us a sales forecast for the next two years.  Now, like all forecasts, we can't really accept it as gospel and we do need to be cognisant of the disclaimer. I do note that an earlier slide in the presentation presents what http://forrestthinks.blogspot.com/2010/11/cst-growth-projection.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Unknown)1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5327837085518061485.post-7683265891460130284Sat, 13 Nov 2010 06:52:00 +00002010-11-14T07:56:57.479+11:00cellestis I've previously had stuff to say about the mistaken belief that movements in the share price can tell you something about the actual business. (To find out stuff about the business you need to look at ... the business). Now, I am thinking about the contention that seems to be common that movements in the share price tell us something about the market view (faith, belief) in the Company. I am http://forrestthinks.blogspot.com/2010/11/logically-thinking-about-shareholder.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Unknown)8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5327837085518061485.post-2927465536508245219Thu, 11 Nov 2010 22:28:00 +00002010-11-12T09:30:59.802+11:00cellestisContributor "Lab Rat" has posted a comment to my post on "Competition?". However, for some reason beyond me, the comment has not appeared on the blog.It is such a good and useful post that I have reposted it here."I agree that the Xpert MTB/RIF test is not competitive with QFN-TB, but people can be forgiven for thinking otherwise when journalists and analysts write that it is. Also it is worth http://forrestthinks.blogspot.com/2010/11/lab-rat.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (forrestgump)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5327837085518061485.post-1657577577059503349Thu, 11 Nov 2010 01:47:00 +00002010-11-11T12:47:17.372+11:00cellestisJust a quick one. I see that the current "fear and loathing" being expressed in forums has led to a totally mistaken assumption about a new test for TB that has recently been announced by an American Company.  I'm really not going to waste any time on this other than to point out that this is just another diagnostic for ACTIVE TB. It may or may not be better than the diagnostics for http://forrestthinks.blogspot.com/2010/11/competition.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Unknown)3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5327837085518061485.post-2426551048785745067Thu, 11 Nov 2010 00:51:00 +00002010-11-11T12:33:25.086+11:00In response to my recent blog post, Elleburra made the following comments. I thought it was worthwhile developing that further as a blog entry."The directors in my view have done an excellent job of promoting the product to the target markets but appear at the same time to be very loath to promote the company to the investment community. We have to face the fact that very few investors even know http://forrestthinks.blogspot.com/2010/11/reply-to-elleburra.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (forrestgump)1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5327837085518061485.post-4247541806325862984Tue, 09 Nov 2010 05:00:00 +00002010-11-09T17:10:13.805+11:00cellestisG'day all, As you may have noticed, I have been quiet for a while. I just felt that after ten years of continuous posting on Cellestis that I deserved some "Long Term Service Leave". A few weeks on a driving holiday through France and Italy has been most enjoyable - I may even post something about my experiences at some point.  Whilst I haven't been posting anything during my break, I http://forrestthinks.blogspot.com/2010/11/gump-returns.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Unknown)4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5327837085518061485.post-5207061375331452455Sun, 29 Aug 2010 08:06:00 +00002010-08-30T07:33:38.105+10:00cellestisquantiferonI have mentioned before that the predictive value of the QFT diagnostic is extremely important in proving its value. This longitudinal study by Diel confirms the ability of QFT to identify all of those contacts of a case of active TB that subsequently progress to Active TB. It is actually quite difficult to conduct a study like this where a large number of people are identified as having TB http://forrestthinks.blogspot.com/2010/08/cellestis-predictive.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Unknown)4