Four Two Forty Sports

NFL Week 2 - Three Open Questions

noreply@blogger.com (Greg Mulligan) — Thu, 23 Sep 2010 15:38:00 +0000

Not surprisingly, it's extremely hard to figure out who's good and who's bad in the NFL after week 2. For most teams, there just isn't enough evidence to prove whether they are a contender or pretender. Three of the most burning unanswered questions are in New York, Philadelphia and Houston.

1. Are the Giants an 11-5 or 5-11 team?

Of all the 1-1 teams in the league, the Giants have had the most inconsistent performance thus far, beating up on an awful Panthers team in the home opener and getting blown out by an A+ effort from Peyton Manning, Dwight Freeney and the Colts on the road. On paper, you'd expect New York to be .500 after these two matchups, so the record isn't the problem. What's perplexing is the gargantuan disparity in the quality of play from game to game. Are they the team that looked like they're back to Super Bowl form in battering Matt Moore into turnover after turnover or the team that looked old on the offensive line, weak in the defensive front seven and painfully slow to adjust the game plan (never helping the tackles block Freeney and Mathis) against the Colts? It's impossible to say right now, which is personally worrisome to me as a lifelong Giants fan. Fortunately, we'll get our answer by the end of week 5 after tough but winnable matchups with playoff contenders Tennessee, Chicago and Houston.

2. Is Michael Vick for real?

Vick has been electric, and he's certain to swing the balance of power in countless fantasy leagues, but what do 6 quarters of football tell us about his ability to win games for the Philadelphia Eagles? On the one hand, 52 points, 459 passing yards, a 63% completion rate, 3 passing touchdowns and no interceptions show the kind of real growth as a pocket passer Vick needed to achieve to make the leap from human highlight reel to game changing weapon. However, on the other hand, he's put up those stats against a Green Bay team that game planned for Kevin Kolb and didn't adjust and a Lions defense that's on the rise but is still a year away from being legitimately good. Plus, 8 sacks and a pair of fumbles suggest that he still has more to learn. Odds are, we'll be asking this question all season long without ever being sure of the answer.

3. Can Houston finally topple the Colts?

They did it once already head to head, but can they do it over the course of an entire season? History is certainly against them but a pair of impressive early victories suggest that the tide may be turning. What we know is that the Texans have an explosive offense led by all-world Andre Johnson and maybe All-Pro Matt Schaub, the offensive line has become a genuine asset and the defense has disruptive stars in Mario Williams and DeMeco Ryans. What we don't know is if Arian Foster is for real, if the oft-injured Schaub can stay healthy or if the other 9 starters on defense are good enough to keep Houston out of constant shootouts.

Of course, there's always the chance that it might not matter. Despite being a game up on their rivals they're still the underdog to the Colts, who are always a threat to run away with the division with a 14-2 season.

NFL Week 2 - Three Things We Know

noreply@blogger.com (Greg Mulligan) — Thu, 23 Sep 2010 02:00:00 +0000

Sixteen games may not seem like much, but the NFL season is long, full of twists and turns. With so much football to come, it's generally a bad idea to read too much into the first two weeks. That said, there are still a few certain conclusions we can draw from the small sample provided so far.

1. Mark Sanchez needs to be better than Trent Dilfer.
No team had more hype coming into 2010 than the Jets, thanks largely to their own bravado. The formula seemed simple, mimic the 2000 Ravens and play dominant defense, run the ball and don't make mistakes in the passing game. The thing is, these Jets aren't those Ravens. Baltimore didn't just have a dominant defense, they had a historically dominant one. On top of that, they had a top 5 running game anchored by a hall of fame left tackle in Jonathan Ogden, exceptional special teams and a surprisingly respectable 3,100 yards in passing.

The Jets may aspire to that, but it's a tall order, especially with Kris Jenkins out for the year, Darrelle Revis and Calvin Pace wounded and the offensive line a work in progress. They'll need to keep the game 1 training wheels off Mark Sanchez and get more games like last Sunday's against the Patriots. He won't have to toss 3 TDs a game, but he has to be able to keep 8 men out of the box and win a few games with his arm if the Jets are going to get out of the tough AFC East and make noise in the playoffs.

2. A bad quarterback is a death sentence.
You can get in trouble declaring a team out of the running after week 2, but the Arizona Cardinals, Buffalo Bills, Carolina Panthers and Cleveland Browns are dead in the water, all because of disastrous quarterback situations. If Derek Anderson, Trent Edwards, Matt Moore and Jake Delhomme are the answer, I shudder to think what the question is. All four have already gone to the second string, which may give them hope for the future (Max Hall and Jimmy Clausen are interesting prospects), but kills their chance of contending.

Matt Cassel, Alex Smith and the vortex of mediocrity in Oakland all have the capacity to totally undermine their teams seasons early, but they're all good enough to keep the jury out for a few more weeks.

3. The Lions and Chiefs aren't laughingstocks anymore.
Regardless of their current records (2-0 in Kansas City, 0-2 in Detroit) or how they ultimately finish the season, both the Lions and the Chiefs have already proven that they're no longer the league's doormats.

Kansas City has come roaring out of the gate with an upset win in a monsoon over a good Chargers team and a gutty victory over the terrible Browns. Beyond the record though, there's reason to expect the Chiefs to be a tough out all year long. Although their quarterback will probably be their ultimate undoing, they have receiving weapons in Dwayne Bowe, Dexter McCluster and Tony Moeaki, and they can run the ball as well as anyone with Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones. On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs are top 10 in points allowed and rush defense and have respectable young talent at all three levels.

The Lions are 2010's early season hard luck story, losing twice by a combined total of just 8 points against two quality opponents (one game dropped to instant replay), plus losing their franchise quarterback to injury for a month. The results don't reflect the product on the field, however. For the first time in an eternity, the Lions have a balanced offense led by a rookie of the year contender Jahvid Best and genetic freak Calvin Johnson. Defensively, #2 overall pick Ndamukong Suh has already proven himself to be a force of nature and centerpiece to a feisty, up and coming squad.

Neither team should sniff the playoffs this year, though they both ought to make nasty spoilers in December.

2010 NFL Preview - AFC Secret Weapons

noreply@blogger.com (Greg Mulligan) — Fri, 10 Sep 2010 14:46:00 +0000

AFC East

Buffalo Bills - Leodis McKelvin, CB
After missing most of 2009 with a broken leg, McKelvin will reinforce a quality secondary that picked off 28 passes last year, tops in the AFC. A solid preseason has returned McKelvin to the starting lineup, where he will need to build on his promise as a former early-first round draft pick by matching up with some of the division's home run hitters like Randy Moss, Brandon Marshall and Braylon Edwards.

Miami Dolphins - Anthony Fasano, TE
Fasano spent the first two years of his career as a backup in Dallas, then the next two on a middling offense in Miami. Things are looking up for the Dolphins in 2010, with a massive upgrade at wide receiver in Brandon Marshall and improvement expected from young Chad Henne, Brian Hartline and Davone Bess. That should open up the field for Fasano, especially in the red zone where he's proven his worth before with a 7 TD season in 2008.

New England Patriots - Rookie Tight Ends
Patriots tight ends have averaged a modest 43 receptions per season over the past 3 years. That figures to change in a big way with the addition of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. Although behind Alge Crumpler on the depth chart at the moment, both rookies should get plenty of opportunities to make an impact in the passing game, considering Tom Brady is a full two years removed from knee surgery and has a contract extension to earn, plus Randy Moss and Wes Welker both merit double coverage.

New York Jets - Vernon Gholston, DE
Yep, that Vernon Gholston. Since being overdrafted with the 6th pick in 2008, Gholston has been a complete nonfactor for the Jets and finds his NFL career teetering on the edge. However, he's been moved from outside linebacker, where he was completely lost, to one dimensional edge rusher in Rex Ryan's high pressure defense. With just one job to do, lots of more dangerous blitzers surrounding him, and with his spot in the league on the line, Gholston has an excellent chance to surprise this season.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens - Ben Grubbs, OG
It seems a bit disingenuous to call a Pro Bowl alternate a secret, and even more facetious to call an offensive guard a weapon, but that's exactly what Grubbs is. A big, quick road grater, Grubbs is a critical foundational element of what should be a well-rounded, Super Bowl caliber offense.

Cincinnati Bengals - Jermaine Gresham, TE
Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco will get all the attention, from the media and defensive secondaries, but rookie tight end Jermaine Gresham figures to get a lot of third down and goal line looks. 50-plus catches for the young pass catcher, with many of them coming in critical situations, isn't out of the question.

Cleveland Browns - James Davis, RB
Coming into 2009, Davis was an under the radar candidate to share carries in the Cleveland backfield, but a torn labrum suffered in practice ended his rookie season before it really began. As 2010 opened, it appeared that Davis was an afterthought, behind Montario Hardesty and Jerome Harrison on the depth chart. However, an injury to Hardesty has created an opportunity for Davis to have the season he was expected to last season.

Pittsburgh Steelers - Ryan Clark, SS
When you share a defensive backfield with Troy Polamalu, it's tough to get noticed. However, Ryan Clark deserves to share some of the spotlight. After 4 nondescript seasons with the Giants and Redskins, Clark found a home in Pittsburgh, developing into a reliable, hard hitting compliment to his more famous freelancing teammate.

AFC South

Houston Texans - Offensive Tackles
The David Carr era was defined by an annual quarterback massacre, thanks to a porous offensive line. It's gone under the radar though, that the Texans have given up 2 sacks or less per game over the last 3 years. An enormous part of the credit for that, and an offense that's blossomed with the pass rush under control, goes to recent draftees Eric Winston and Duane Brown, who are both just entering their prime.

Indianapolis Colts - Anthony Gonzalez, WR
Gonzalez spent the first two years of his career mildly underperforming his status as a fantasy sleeper, before missing all of 2009 with an injury. With the ascension of Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie, Gonzalez has gone from sleeper to secret, a mistake considering his skills and how much Peyton Manning likes to spread the ball around.

Jacksonville Jaguars - Rashad Jennings, RB
It's difficult to make an impact backing up a true workhorse like Maurice Jones-Drew. In limited opportunities last season, Jennings showed flashes of potential, averaging 5.2 yards per carry. MJD has been out of practice for much of training camp with a rumored knee injury, so it is likely that Jennings will be called upon to show more than flashes and become a true complement to the superstar starter.

Tennessee Titans - Stephen Tulloch, MLB
Although Keith Bulluck had been the anchor of the Tennessee defense for much of the last decade, it was Tulloch that led the team in tackles during 2009. Now Bulluck is gone and Tulloch will be charged with leading the defense. If he succeeds, the Titans have the look of a playoff team.

AFC West

Denver Broncos - Andre Brown, RB
Perhaps the most secret of weapons on this list, Brown was cut by the Giants at the end of training camp after missing all of 2009 due to injury. The talented back has landed in the perfect situation, backing up two players that are dealing with injuries (Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter) on a team that will need to rely on the run. At worst, Brown should provide an explosive change of pace to the veterans and at best he takes on a significant role on a team in flux.

Kansas City Chiefs - Tamba Hali, OLB
In his first 3 years in the league, Elvis Dumervil amassed a good-not-great 25.5 sacks as an end in Denver's 4-3 defense before exploding for 17 last year as the rush linebacker in a 3-4. Fellow 2006 draftee Tamba Hali has the same opportunity with KC's defensive scheme change. Hali's been okay (27 sacks in 4 seasons), but has the chance to be a breakout star.

Oakland Raiders - Kamerion Wembley, OLB
After three middling seasons with the Browns from 2007 to 2009, it's easy to forget Wembley's brilliant 11 sack debut in 2006. Acquired via trade in the offseason, Wembley will be called upon to refind his rookie form and be a playmaker in an improving defense.

San Diego Chargers - Luis Castillo, DE
Linebackers Shawne Merriman and Shaun Phillips get most of the press for San Diego's defense, but it's Luis Castillo's quiet but effective play up front that eats up blockers and frees up his teammates to make plays. If Merriman and Phillips go on to record double digit sacks this year, it'd be in large part because Castillo put together a Pro Bowl caliber year.

The Curse of Juan Samuel

noreply@blogger.com (Greg Mulligan) — Thu, 02 Sep 2010 18:45:00 +0000

In 1985, the New York Mets called Lenny Dykstra up from the minors to fill in for an injured Mookie Wilson. Immediately, he became a fan favorite and an offensive sparkplug for a 98-win team that just missed making the playoffs in an all-time classic pennant race with the Cardinals. The next season, Dykstra took over as the everyday leadoff hitter and helped propel the franchise to its second World Series title, highlighted by a stunning walk-off home run in Game 3 of the NLCS that still stands as one of the greatest moments in the team's history.

Dykstra's' Finest Moment

However, Dykstra's tenure with the Mets wouldn't last for very long. In June of 1989, Dykstra was traded to the Phillies for the fading slugger Juan Samuel, in a transaction motivated primarily by Dykstra's well-earned reputation for off-the-field lunacy. I was 11 years old at the time and remember being devastated but defended Samuel throughout his lone half-season with the Mets, clinging to hope that their new acquisition would prove worthwhile. My faith was rewarded by a staggeringly bad 3 homer, .228 batting average, .599 OPS performance. Dykstra, however, went on to star for the Phillies, making 3 all-star teams and finishing second for the NL MVP in 1993 during his 7+ seasons with the team.

The Dykstra-Samuel trade marked the beginning of the end for the dynamic Mets squads of the 80s, as longtime stalwarts like Keith Hernandez, Gary Carter, Dwight Gooden and Darryl Strawberry would soon follow Lenny out the door. It also managed to anger the baseball gods. As penance for their folly, the Mets have failed to develop a single minor league outfield prospect that has lived up to expectations in the 21 years since Dykstra was moved.

With September callups like Lucas Duda and, assuming he recovers from his latest injury, Fernando Martinez looking to stake a claim to a big league job for 2011 and beyond, they'll have to overcome more than just the challenge of adjusting to major league pitching and the weight of major market expectations. They will also have to conquer the franchise's ignominious fate, a complete inability to develop an outfielder that I call The Curse of Juan Samuel.

There have been plenty of players that were described as the Next Big Thing, 5-tool wunderkinds who were set to take New York City by storm. Alex Ochoa made his debut in late 1995 promising power, speed and a monster outfield arm. The power and speed never materialized however, as his short stint with the team ended with just 7 homers and 8 steals contributed to the Mets' ledger. Jay Payton first arrived in 1998 with even greater hype, but his five seasons with the Mets were marred by injury and mediocre performance. On the plus side, Payton was entertaining, given his short fuse and propensity for on-field violence.

Payton's minor league contemporary Terrence Long made it to the bigs with the Mets but never registered a hit with the team, striking out in 2 of his 3 at bats in Queens before being shipped to Oakland. Long made his only lasting contribution to baseball lore with the A's by helping to build the legend of Ichiro.

Alex Escobar was touted as a mixture of power, speed, average and defense but arrived with the Mets as undersized and lost at the plate. Just as soon as he arrived he was gone, moved as part of the deal for Roberto Alomar, which is basically disaster compounded by disaster. Another undersized would be slugger, Lastings Milledge, was compared to Gary Sheffield as a prospect. The comparison proved true, not in regards to bat speed but in relation to their mutual ability to anger teammates, management, the media and fans. Like Escobar, Milledge was shipped out of town for a package that went from bad to worse to worst. He was traded for the futile Brian Schneider and Ryan Church, who was then moved for Jeff Francoeur. Time will tell if Joaquin Arias is just the next link in this particular chain of disappointment.

The most recent addition to this list of five-tool washouts did manage to make a significant contribution to the organization, though not with his play. Touted as a Carlos Beltran clone, Carlos Gomez was the centerpiece in the 2008 trade that brought Johan Santana to New York, good for the Mets but bad for the Twins, who have already set Gomez adrift.

Two other former Mets farmhands deserve special mention, as they did manage to break The Curse of Juan Samuel and have productive major league careers, just not in a Mets uniform. Jeromy Burnitz came up in 1993 as a highly regarded slugger but quickly and permanently took up residence in Dallas Green's doghouse before moving on to have five consecutive huge years for the Brewers. To add insult to injury, Burnitz returned to the Mets in 2002 and 2003 but could not regain his Milwaukee form. To add one final insult, Burnitz' 2004 season with the Rockies was among his finest, mashing 37 HRs and 110 RBI.

With Jeff Francoeur gone, Carlos Beltran a shell of his pre-injury self, Jason Bay (another outfielder that briefly did time in the Mets system) a free agent disappointment, Angel Pagan no sure thing to repeat his spectacular 2010 campaign and the team too strapped for cash to bring in players from outside the organization, it's incumbent for the next group of outfielders to defy recent history and come from within, finally breaking a long and terrible curse.

Preston Wilson made a big splash in spring training during 1998, but only had a cup of coffee with the team, traded as part of the package that put Mike Piazza in a Mets uniform. While there's not a Mets fan in the world that would take the deal back if given the chance, Wilson proved to be the organization's best outfield prospect since Dykstra with two 20/20 and one 30/30 seasons.

James Toney and the Impossible Dream

noreply@blogger.com (Greg Mulligan) — Mon, 30 Aug 2010 18:09:00 +0000

Randy Couture's dismantling of James Toney at UFC 118 should come as no surprise to anyone with even a passing interest in mixed martial arts. Competing at an elite level in MMA requires a mastery of a wide range of skills, including wrestling, kickboxing, jiu-jitsu, takedown and submission defense, that are foreign to even the most experienced boxer. Exceptional striking is really the final piece of the puzzle. Throw in the fact that Couture is, conservatively, one of the ten best mixed martial artists ever and Toney seemed to be in this more for the big payday than the victory, and the utter obliteration that occurred Saturday night was inevitable.

The thing is, I don't think Toney's loss is going to do anything to stem the tide of professional athletes from other sports dipping their toes in MMA waters. Despite his defeat, and the middling performances of Kimbo Slice, Herschel Walker and Bobby Lashley, boxers, football players, pro wrestlers and more will keep trying their hand at mixed martial arts for one reason - Brock Lesnar is UFC's heavyweight champion.
By definition, succeeding as a professional athlete requires defying the odds. For example, only about 0.2% of high school football players ever make it to the NFL. As such, just the act of becoming a professional means that you believe that you are the exception, the one capable of greatness where others would fail. It means identifying with the people that make it, not the ones that meet defeat. It means believing, to the very core of your being, that you are the next Lesnar, not just another Toney.

That said, Brock Lesnar is nothing like Toney, or Kimbo, or Walker, or even fellow WWE alumnus Lashley. Unlike the former three, Lesnar's resume includes a standout run as an amateur wrestler, which has proven to be a solid foundation for MMA success. Although Lashley does share this distinction, he's not a unique athlete in the way that Lesnar is. Specifically, while Lashley may be big and quick, Lesnar is both stronger and more agile that the people he's fighting against. Goliath shouldn't be able to outmove you in a fight, but when he can it's almost impossible to deal with, regardless of skills and experience. Throw in the fact that Lesnar has a decent idea of what to do with his physical gifts in the cage and you've got the rare athlete that can defy the MMA odds and become an outsider-come-champion.

Maybe someday there will be a boxer that achieves the impossible dream and wins a UFC championship, but it won't be someone like Toney, a former great looking to get paid. It will be a 25-year old champion that walks away from a boxing belt in his prime and spends the next 4 years learning the MMA ropes and entering the cage as a genuinely well rounded competitor.

Madden Hidden Tricks - Defensive Position Switches

noreply@blogger.com (Greg Mulligan) — Sat, 28 Aug 2010 17:13:00 +0000

It's common knowledge that the overall ratings for players change if you play them out of position. Within the defensive front seven especially, a player's rating can improve drastically by moving them from linebacker to defensive end or from end to defensive tackle. This flexibility can be an obvious benefit to your team if all you do is adjust your depth chart, especially if you run a 4-3 base defense. That said, there are two situations where you can truly maximize the advantage of position switches, using defensive substitutions with a 3-4 playbook and when drafting a team in online franchise mode.

Let's say you're playing with the Washington Redskins, a team with a 3-4 playbook and three players that benefit from position changes (Haynesworth, Orakpo and Carter). If all you do is adjust your depth chart to switch Haynesworth to DT and Orakpo and Carter to DEs, then yes, you have improved your line, but you've done so at the expense of your linebacking core, which now has two bench players starting at your OLB spots. Instead, it's better to leave your depth chart alone, letting Haynesworth stay at DE and team with strong, incumbent linemen Kemoeatu (76 OVR, 97 STR) and Carriker (74 OVR, 86 STR) to eat up blockers and free up your top four LBs to make tackles and blitz through gaps.

The real advantage comes when you call nickel and dime defenses with four man lines. In this case, since you're taking linebackers off the field anyway you're free to use the defensive substitution menu in the playcalling screen to move Orakpo and Carter to end, Haynesworth to tackle and your starting middle linebackers into the linebacker spots. In this scenario, your five or six best players are always on the field and in positions where they can do the most damage.

Picking players that improve via position switches in a full-team fantasy draft may be even more powerful way to game the system. The reason is straightforward. Because these players are rated by their given position, they are listed further down the draft board. You can take, say, Shawne Merriman in the 12th round as an 84 rated linebacker with the intention of starting him as a 98 rated defensive end. If you go into the draft planning to take three or four players like this, you can spend the early rounds loading up on offense and still come away with a powerful defense.

One word of caution, always remember to check each player's secondary ratings to make sure that they match your defensive scheme. A speed rusher like Manny Lawson (79 OVR at OLB, 92 OVR at DE) is a fine fit for a 4-man front but will be swallowed up by double teams in a 3-4.

Win Your Fantasy Football Draft in 5 Easy Steps

noreply@blogger.com (Greg Mulligan) — Fri, 27 Aug 2010 19:33:00 +0000

I don't purport to be a fantasy football guru. That said, I've got a running streak of 4 consecutive playoff appearances including a championship, so I think it's fair to say that I know a thing or two about fantasy football management. Since I just finished up my first draft of the season and came away elated with my team (the kiss of death, I know), I thought I'd share some of the strategies I put to use in building my squad.

Some background, this was a snake draft in a 12-team league, 6 points per TD, yardage bonuses and rosters that include 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 RB/WR/TE flex, K, team defense and an individual defender. I had the 6th pick.

1. When in Doubt Start a Run on a Position
The first round of my league's draft started off with a run on running backs (Johnson, Peterson, MJD, Turner and Rice), so I was immediately faced with a choice; reach for a running back or take my top pick at another position. I wanted a sure thing in round 1, so I passed on injury risks like Steven Jackson and Frank Gore and took my #1 QB, Drew Brees, over my #1 receiver Andre Johnson. Part of this decision was based on my belief that Brees is simply better given my league's format. However, a bigger factor was my hope that, in taking Brees, I could kick off a QB run and push some of the runners and receivers that I liked further down the board into round 2 and 3.

Fortunately, that's exactly what happened. Rodgers and Manning were taken within the next 7 picks, leaving Calvin Johnson (my #2 ranked WR) for me at pick 19. Even better, since Romo, Brady and Schaub went at the end of the round, Greg Jennings slid to me in round 3.

The beginning of Round 4 was a bloodbath for my draft board as 5 players that I liked in this slot (Forte, Stewart, Charles, Rice and McCoy) were taken in quick succession. Faced with an uninspiring collection of backs and receivers, I chose to try to kick off another positional run by taking my top TE, Antonio Gates. This worked beautifully, as 4 more tight ends were taken over the next 9 picks, setting me up for a steal in round 5.

2. Grab Talent Over Need
As my round 5 pick approached, I still didn't have any running backs, an unenviable position for any fantasy manager. Despite this, I decided to skip over some interesting but difficult to predict runners (Forsett, Jacobs, Bradshaw) in favor of a third wideout that had inexplicably slid down the draft board, Michael Crabtree. As unsettling as it was to go this deep into the draft without a running back, my main priority in the middle rounds is to pick up players that have a chance to deliver first or second round value. Crabtree fits that description to a T.

3. Draft Startable Depth at Key Positions
In the next three rounds, there weren't any must-have sliders at receiver, so it was time to address the running back situation. At this point, my strategy was to load up on backs that were good, solid bets to provide 7 points per week (112 for the season), either as their team's primary rusher or through disproportionate goal line carries. I picked up Ricky Williams, Marion Barber and Clinton Portis, and although I don't think any of them are going to put up 1,000 yard, 10 TD seasons, 700 yards and 7 TDs is pretty likely and should be plenty if my passing game produces what I think it will.

Later on, I made sure to back up my Brees and my flex position with respectable starters that have some upside, Kenny Britt (round 10) and Vince Young (round 12). I didn't find a reliable backup running back though, so that's something I may have to keep an eye out for if my next collection of picks don't pan out.

4. The Late Rounds are for Lottery Tickets
I think when fantasy managers think of sleepers, they think of third wide receivers that could break out with 50 catches or a rookie running back that may get 40% of his team's carries. That's not a sleeper, that's a bye week sub. A real sleeper is the player that you pick up for next to nothing and wins your league.

So, with that in mind and my starters in place, I began to look for home runs in round 9, starting with perhaps the most intriguing all-or-nothing candidate in the NFL this year, Vincent Jackson. Now, I think that there's about an 80% chance that Jackson either doesn't play at all or signs so late that he's a fantasy non-factor this season, but in the off chance that he returns during the first third of the year, he's a second or third round talent that could easily average double digit fantasy points a game. That's the type of guy that wins a league.

My round 11 (Darren McFadden), round 15 (Josh Morgan) and round 16 (Justin Fargas, in the event that Knowshawn Moreno is too banged up to start the season) were all taken with the hope that they could be 1,000 yard, 8 TD type players. If they are, I've got a true difference maker. If they aren't, they're very easy to cut.

5. Plan for the Waiver Wire
My running back depth is predicated on the fact that I only need to play 2 runners, so McFadden and Fargas are something of a luxury. Still, if they don't show signs of life in week 1, I won't hesitate to cut them immediately and upgrade by whoever surprises from the free agent pool. I believe that there's always useful talent to be found on waivers, which is why I'm willing to take the boom or bust guys early and often. If they don't work out, just try someone else.

Also, the waiver wire is the reason not to prioritize defenses and kickers. While I didn't heed my own advice this year, filling the positions before the final rounds, I normally do just fine by signing the D/ST and K that has the best matchup each week.