Free Pick: Ohio +8.5 (Craig Trapp)
Wow this spread should be +7 and we would still like Ohio in this one. Will take the extra points and love it. Ohio might be the hottest shooting team in all of the tourney. The last 4 games they have shot over 50% from the field but have not allowed a team to shoot over 45%. Call me crazy but this one will come right down to the end with Ohio having a chance to win it outright. Ohio is a very good 19-12 ATS and are 4-0 ATS in neutral sites shooting 48.5 percent. On the other hand TENN is only 4-2 straight up on neutral floors and only shoot 42% from the field. TENN just does not play well away from home but Ohio loves the road and will prove it again today.

Free Pick: Kansas State -4.5 (Dave Price)
Here’s the key: BYU relies heavily on the 3-point shot, but K-State is 7-1 ATS versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season, defeating these teams by an average score of 77.4 to 68.2. BYU’s Fredette is a good guard, but he will be neutralized by K-State’s standout backcourt tandem of Clemente and Pullen. I just can’t see Frank Martin letting Fredette beat them today. We’ll lay the points.

Free Pick: Washington -1 (Jimmy Boyd)
We cashed in with Washington in round one, and it is worth a small play again today. Led by Quincy Pondexter, the Huskies are on some kind of a role. They have won 8 straight and covered the spread in 7 of those. This is a very confident team right now, and I’m giving them the edge for heading into the Sweet 16. I can’t look past the fact that New Mexico is on a 2-11 ATS skid when playing away from home versus good offensive teams, scoring 77 or more points per game, after 15+ games, losing to these teams by an average score of 69.1 to 80.2. The Lobos are also just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall. The Huskies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 6.5 or fewer points and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games. Take Washington.

Free Pick: Northern Iowa vs. Kansas Under 127 (Jeff Alexander)
Northern Iowa is clearly overmatched here, but you won’t find a team in the tournament that plays harder, especially at the defensive end. The Panthers rank No. 2 in the nation in scoring defense, only allowing 54.6 ppg. Plus, Northern Iowa knows it can’t afford to get into a track meet with Kansas offensively. Expect the Panthers to slow this game down as much as possible to give themselves a fighting chance. At the end of the day, I don’t see UNI putting many points on the board, but the pace should keep Kansas from exploding as well. UNI is 10-1 UNDER when playing away from home versus excellent teams - shooting >=45% with a defense of <=42% over the last 3 seasons, and we are only seeing 115.8 points in these games. Bet the Under.

On Saturday the free play is on Kansas. State. Game 524 at 8:10 eastern. Kansas St applies to a nice system here that plays on NCAAB Tourney favorites if both teams scored 80 or more in their last game if our team is seeded higher has a win percentage of .750 or higher and the opponent which is Byu in this game allowed 150 or more over their last 2 games. Also of note is that certain dogs in this round have struggled off over time wins. Byu played a double ot. thriller on Thursday, finally getting the win and cover vs Florida. Seven seeds have been poor investments in this round and BYU is just 1-6 ats in the Tournament over the years. When the total is 150 to 160 they are 1-4 ats and have lost and failed to cover 3 of the 4 times when installed as an underdog this year. Kansas. St on the other hand is 9-3 ats vs teams who score 77 or more, have covered 16 of 23 times when favored, 8 of 10 vs non conference teams and have won 16 of 22 times vs winning teams. Look for Kansas St to get the win and cover. On Saturday I have a 96% 5* Blowout System in day action, the NCAAB Tournament total of the year backed with 6 power angles, and a Huge NCAAB Dog with bite that will win the game outright. We cashed BOTH big blowouts on Pittsburgh and Dukge on Friday and have positive units in 4 of the past 5 Saturday cards. Jump on and cash out on Saturday. RV

Murray St. is a very tough matchup for Butler. The Racers are quick, deep and athletic and being as balanced as they are makes them tough to defend because there is no one player to key on. Murray St. has six players averaging between 9.5 ppg and 10.6 ppg and it simply does not get more balanced than that. To be fair, the Ohio Valley Conference is far from a strong conference and the only real non-conference test came at California early in the season where the Racers lost by only five points. As good and balanced as the offense is, Murray St. relies a lot on a strong defense that held opponents to just 38.9 percent shooting from the floor. Because they are so quick, they force a ton of turnovers, close to 17 per game, and they allowed opponents to post a 0.67 assist/turnover ratio. While the OVC is weak as mentioned, the Horizon League is not much better. That is the main reason that Butler has won 21 straight games and a reason why that streak is in jeopardy. The Bulldogs played a near flawless second half against UTEP on Thursday where it made 10 three-pointers and was able to easily erase a six-point halftime deficit. This team is very good, don’t get me wrong, but it pays more often than not to actually go against teams that are coming off such a good effort. Prior to the win over the Miners, the Bulldogs had a nice win over Siena during Bracket Buster weekend but other than that, nothing else stands out. Sure they defeated Ohio St. back in December but if Even Turner played that game, things would have turned out differently. A one-point win at home over Xavier was the only other win against a tournament team so the résumé is far from impressive. The public will see that long winning streak and a short line and be all over the Bulldogs and that is already the case as of Friday night where the majority of the action is on them. Murray St. got a fortunate break to make it to this game but it carries that momentum forward on Saturday. 3* Murray St. Racers

Villanova vs. St. Mary’s

Against The Spread Trends:
Gaels are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Gaels are 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 non-conference games.
Gaels are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games following a ATS win.
Gaels are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games.
Gaels are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games as an underdog.
Wildcats are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.
Wildcats are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite.
Wildcats are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite.
Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

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Old Dominion vs. Baylor

Against The Spread Trends:
Monarchs are 10-25 ATS in their last 35 games following a ATS win.
Monarchs are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog.
Monarchs are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 neutral site games.
Monarchs are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5.
Monarchs are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games as an underdog.
Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5.
Bears are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.
Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Bears are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 Saturday games.

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Washington vs. New Mexico

Against The Spread Trends:
Huskies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite.
Huskies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games.
Huskies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
Huskies are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games as a favorite.
Huskies are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 non-conference games.
Lobos are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 non-conference games.
Lobos are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Lobos are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games.
Lobos are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win.
Lobos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.

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Kentucky vs. Wake Forest

Against The Spread Trends:
Demon Deacons are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5.
Demon Deacons are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs. Southeastern.
Demon Deacons are 35-17-1 ATS in their last 53 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Demon Deacons are 7-24 ATS in their last 31 neutral site games.
Demon Deacons are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 NCAA Tournament games.
Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite.
Wildcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Saturday games.
Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
Wildcats are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win.
Wildcats are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

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BYU vs. Kansas State

Against The Spread Trends:
Cougars are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 NCAA Tournament games.
Cougars are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 neutral site games as an underdog.
Cougars are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog.
Cougars are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5.
Cougars are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5.
Wildcats are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.
Wildcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games as a favorite.
Wildcats are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5.
Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.
Wildcats are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite.

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Butler vs. Murray State

Against The Spread Trends:
Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5.
Bulldogs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 NCAA Tournament games.
Bulldogs are 41-20-1 ATS in their last 62 non-conference games.
Bulldogs are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games.
Bulldogs are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win.
Racers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Racers are 8-18-1 ATS in their last 27 games following a ATS win.
Racers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Racers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog.
Racers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games.

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Tennessee vs. Ohio

Against The Spread Trends:
Bobcats are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win.
Bobcats are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Bobcats are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog.
Bobcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games.
Bobcats are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
Volunteers are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall.
Volunteers are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite.
Volunteers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games.
Volunteers are 2-7-2 ATS in their last 11 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite.
Volunteers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5.

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Kansas vs. Northern Iowa

Against The Spread Trends:
Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win.
Panthers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.
Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5.
Panthers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
Jayhawks are 35-15-1 ATS in their last 51 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Jayhawks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Saturday games.
Jayhawks are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a S.U. win.
Jayhawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.

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Free Pick: Minnesota +1 (Jimmy Boyd)
With the 11-seed Minnesota favored by 1 point when the line opened before the public started pounding Xavier, I believe the odds makers were tipping their hand. Minnesota is the more experienced team, and it gained a ton of confidence when it defeated both Michigan State and Purdue in the Big Ten Tourney. But the fact that the Gophers were absolutely drilled by Ohio State in the Big Ten Tourney title game leaves them hungry. In fact, Minnesota is 11-3 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons, bouncing back to win in these spots by an average score of 68.9 to 58.7. The Golden Gophers are also 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a S.U. loss of more than 20 points. Xavier is still a good ball club, but not the same team we saw last year when it made a little run in the tourney. The Golden Gophers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Look for Minnesota to get the job done.

Free Pick: Maryland -9 (Tom Freese)
Houston is 15-15 this year. Guard Aubrey Coleman scores 25.6 and 7.4 rebounds a game. Guard Kelvin Lewis scores 15.3 points a game. No other players score double digit points. The Cougars score 78.6 points a game. Houston is 7-16 ATS their last 23 games off a straight up win and they are 4-9 ATS last 13 Non-Conference games. Maryland is 23-7 this year and they are led by guard Greivis Vasquez and his 19.5 points and 6.3 assists. Landon Milbourne scores 12.5 points a game. Guard Eric Hayes scores 11.1 points a game. Guard Sean Mosley scores 10.5 points a game. The Terps score 79.3 points a game. Maryland is 12-4 ATS their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record and they are 9-2 ATS their last 11 games as favorites. PLAY ON MARYLAND -

Free Pick: Syracuse -15.5 (Craig Trapp)
This spread is off by at least 5 pts. Syracuse loses two tough losses otherwise they are the top seed in the whole tourney. SYR can score 85 plus verse the Big East talent you know they will score even more verse Vermont. Vermont is up against it at every position. SYR has all things needed to win it all and this team will be out to show everyone they are back on top of their game. Three point shooting is always key in big spreads like this and SYR can really light it up from downtown. No way this one is not a 30 pt win!

Free Pick: Florida State vs. Gonzaga Under 132 (Jeff Alexander)
Plays Under on neutral court teams where the total is between 130 and 139.5 points (GONZAGA) - in a game involving 2 slow-down teams (<=55 shots/game), after 15+ games, are 126-62 since 1997 for a 67% win rate. Gonzaga averages 77.6 ppg on the season because it is able to shoot a ridiculous 49.4% from the field against weaker competition in the WCC. The Zags won’t come anywhere near that against a Florida State squad that leads the country in field goal percentage defense, allowing its opponents to shoot just 37.4% from the field. With this in mind, combined with the pace each of these teams prefer to play, we’ll take the Under.

Free NBA Pick: Los Angeles Lakers -15.5 (Jim Feist)
The Lakers are 20-13 on the road this season, but a sizzling 30-5 at home. They tear up bad defensive teams and one of the worst in the NBA shows up here in road weary Minnesota. This is the end of a 4-game road trip for the Timberwolves and it’s been a disaster, losing the last two games giving up 152 and 120 points. They’ve allowed over 100 points in 10 straight games. Minnesota is 5-30 on the road and has already lost to LA by double digits the last time they met. With the Lakers still in the hunt for the top record in the NBA and the T-Wolves already giving up on the season, this will be another blowout. Play the LA Lakers.

Free NBA Pick: Philadelphia 76ers +3.5 (Dave Price)
The 76ers will be out for revenge tonight after falling to the Knicks Monday, and I expect them to get it. From a point spread perspective, this series has been dominated by the road team. In fact, the road team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings and the 76ers are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in New York. Plus, the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Also, the Knicks have not proven that they can be trusted laying points as they are only 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. Meanwhile, the 76ers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. We’ll take the 76ers in this one.

Many bettors remember Siena’s success in the NCAA tournament in ’08 and ’09, and expect similar results in 2010. Two years ago, Siena shocked Vanderbilt in the first round, winning by 21 as 6.5 point underdogs. Last year, the Saints pulled off another first round upset, this time a wild, double OT victory against Ohio State. They even hung tough with Louisville in the second round before falling short This team certainly has a strong mid-major pedigree when it comes to recent postseason success.

But this year’s Siena team isn’t as good as last year’s squad. They failed repeatedly, at every opportunity, to step up in class away from home. They lost at Temple. They lost in Philly against St John’s. They got blown out at Georgia Tech, and Northern Iowa and Butler; non-competitive in the second half of each of those ballgames. This 2010 Siena team is not poised to beat a strong defensive foe like Purdue; a Boilermakers squad that was widely considered to be a national title contender until the recent injury to Robbie Hummel.

Purdue won four of the six games they’ve played since Hummel got hurt. Both losses were ugly. They came on national TV, in games against tremendous defensive opponents (Michigan State and Minnesota) who were athletic enough to contain the Boilermakers both on the perimeter and in the paint. Siena doesn’t have that same ability. There’s a class difference here that is clearly not respected by the betting marketplace. 2* Take Purdue (#854).

Free Pick: UTEP +2.5 (Jimmy Boyd)
I believe UTEP is the better team from the better conference, and losing the C-USA tourney title game to Houston is going to have the Miners really fired up for this one. I like the fact that the Miners are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. I also like the fact that the Bulldogs are just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games. Just shooting the ball well against UTEP isn’t enough. In fact, UTEP is 7-1 ATS versus good shooting teams, making 45% or more of their shots, after 15+ games this season, winning these games by an average score of 76.6 to 65.8. Plus, UTEP is 13-3 ATS when playing away from home versus poor pressure defensive teams, forcing 14 or fewer turnovers per game, over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 75.7 to 68.9. If Butler isn’t able to force UTEP into a lot of mistakes, which is not the defensive personality of the Bulldogs, the Miners will have an excellent opportunity to win this game, which I think they will. Take the points.

Free Pick: Texas -5 (Tony George)
I watched Texas play twice last week in Kansas City. They have a good team. Although I continue to scratch my head everytime I see this team that is LOADED with talent and they continue to flater, I think they have the horses both at guard and in the paint with Pittman to get over on an inconsistent Wake team who was destroyed my Miami in the ACC tourney in the first round as a favorite. Wake has dropped by 5 out of 6 and really I was surprised they made the tourney to be honest. Texas has the offense to outpace Wake here, and if they play to 90% of their potential with their bench and James plays well at guard, this should be an 8-10 point win by Texas, then an early exit in round 2 for them.

Free Pick: Tennessee -3 (Craig Trapp)
Two teams coming off very different conference tourney experiences. TENN needs to put a blowout to UK behind them whereas SDS is looking to keep their Championship form for one more week at least. The difference in this one is the taller more athletic TENN guards. Prince, Mays and Hopson can really play and even though they did not play well verse UK they will bounce back. Hopson for us will be the difference as he will go both inside and outside scoring at least 20. Chism also will play very well as he has had a ton of Tourney experience which is so valuable. Close early but late TENN is just too much.

Free Pick: Northern Iowa +1 (Jeff Alexander)
Good defense and experience wins a lot of games this time of year and the Northern Iowa Panthers have been blessed with the good fortune of having both on their side. The Panthers allow a ridiculous 54.3 ppg. I expect this suffocating defense to be the difference. Northern Iowa is 10-1 ATS in road games versus good teams, outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game, after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons, winning in these spots by an average score of 63.6 to 58.9. I also like the fact that N. Iowa is 7-1 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season, winning these games by an average score of 63.1 to 55.3. We’ll take the Panthers.

Free Pick: Georgetown -13 (John Martin)
Ohio’s miracle run comes to an end in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Georgetown saved their best basketball for last, making it all the way to the Big East Championship game, losing by just 2 points to WVU on a game-winner by De’Sean Butler. Georgetown is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games, and 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games. Ohio is just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings with the Big East conference. Ohio has really struggled shooting the ball this season, hitting just 40.3% of their shots on the road this year. Georgetown is an excellent defensive team, and will make life very difficult for the Bobcats. Georgetown gives up just 64.6 points/game and 40.4% shooting on the road this year. The Hoyas are very efficient on the offensive end as well, scoring 73.2 points/game on 49.8% shooting. I see no way the Hoyas don’t win this game by at least 15 points Thursday.

1.) System Play. We’ll Play Against - Favorites of 10 or more points (KENTUCKY) - in non-conference games, off a win against a conference rival. This is a 66-31 ATS System hitting 68% over the last 5 seasons. This system is 8-4 this season alone.

2.) Kentucky is a freshmen-led team, and these youngsters will certainly be feeling the jitters of playing in the NCAA Tournament for the first time. The Wildcats have gotten by on talent alone this season, with little experience across the board. We look for them to struggle tonight enough for E. Tennessee State to get the cover. This team has played well against against the better teams in the country in recent history. E. Tennessee State is 31-12 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997. They are 26-8 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games since 1997. E. Tennessee State is 16-3 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games since 1997. Finally, this team is 17-2 ATS in their last 19 games played in March.

3.) E. Tennessee State has played a few tournament teams this season and played well. They stayed within 13 points of Louisville on the road, and within 12 points of Tennessee on the road. They also have an 11-point road win over Arkansas on their resume. So they have proven they can hang with some very good teams. Bet East Tennessee State.

To start their season, Robert Morris played and lost to Syracuse, Penn State, and Detroit, by an average of 23.6 PPG. They dropped to Pittsburgh by 24. They even got beaten up by Appalachian State, Kent State, and LIU Brooklyn. How can they stop one of the top units in college hoops? The Colonial’s are miserable from the line, shooting just 66.1%. Facing a very physical Big East team like Villanova will be harmful. They can’t go toe-to-toe with the ‘Cat’s nor can they take advantage when going to the FT line. Outside of Guard Karon Abraham (13.4 PPG) they don’t have one player averaging DD’s. Villanova has 3 players in Scottie Reynolds, Corey Fisher, and Antonio Pena who are combining for 43.1 PPG. Villanova will beat them in the paint, from the line, and beyond the arc. The Colonial’s are 1-4 ATS their L5 vs. teams with a winning perecentage of over .600 and 1-4 ATS their L5 non-conference games. The Wildcat’s are 5-1 ATS their L6 as a favorite of 13 or more points, 4-1 ATS their L5 games played on neutral sites, and 7-2 ATS their L9 non-conference games. Villanova has fallen off a bit lately. They must come out and make a statement in the first round. Villanova crushes Robert Morris. Thank you.

Wake Forest lost 5 of their last 6 games overall, and they have no momentum heading into the Big Dance. The Demon Deacons capped off their season with an ugly 62-83 loss to Miami (Florida) in the ACC Tournament. Yes, Texas has faced their fair share of struggles of late, but at least they’ve been competitive. Remember, this Longhorns’ team was once ranked as the #1 team in the country earlier this season. Texas still has a ton of talent, and we love their chances of advancing to the second round with a blowout win over Wake Forest in their opener. In three seasons with the team, Demon Deacons’ coach Dino Gaudio has yet to register a postseason victory (in the conference tournament or NCAA Tournament). He just cannot get it done in the postseason. But the struggles extend past Gaudio’s tenure. Wake Forest is 15-37 ATS (-25.7 Units) in all neutral court games since 1997. Worse yet, the Demon Deacons are 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in NCAA tournament games since 1997. Texas gets their act together in the first round and plays up to their potential against an inferior team. Take the Longhorns and lay the points.

On Thursday the Free play is on New Mexico. Game 734 at 9:50 eastern. The Lobos fit a nice system here that plays on certain teams off a favored loss in conference play vs an opponent off a dog win in conference tourney play. New Mexico is a solid 14-1 vs non conference teams and 9-3 ats off a conference loss. Tonight they play a Montana team that is off a big win on the road in their conference Championship to earn a bid. Teams coming off such a big win usually fall flat in the Tournament, especially vs teams who lost as a favorite. Look for the Lobos to send Montana home with a solid win and cover. On Thursday I have 4 solid NCAAB Plays 2 at night and 2 in the day, all in Big NCAAB Tournament systems, 2 of the plays are from systems that cash over 95% of the time. We nailed another big 6* play on Pacific on Wednesday and are 3-0 in Tournament action thus far. Jump on as we tear up the tournament on Thursday. For the free play take New Mexico. RV

The Butler Bulldogs are determined to make some noise in the Big Dance this year. This is a veteran group with all 5 starters back from last year’s team that suffered a first-round exit. Butler enters this game with the nation’s longest winning streak at 20 games. Butler went 28-4 this season and they didn’t do all of their damage in the Horizon League. The Bulldogs stepped out of conference and beat Ohio State and Xavier earlier this season, two teams that are seeded highly in the NCAA Tournament. Butler is one of the best defensive teams in the country, giving up just 60.0 PPG and 41.4% shooting. Their defense, along with their experience, gives the Bulldogs a huge edge over UTEP in my opinion.

This play also falls under a system that is 45-15 (75%) ATS since 1997. It tells us to bet against neutral court teams (UTEP) - a good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against an excellent defensive team (<=63 PPG), after leading their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half. Butler is the better defensive team, and they have been on a mission since the start of their 20-game winning streak. Take the Bulldogs over UTEP.