dont-set-the-world-on-fire

Sicherheitsrat beschließt weitere Sanktionen

2007-03-25T09:31:00.000+02:00

UNITED NATIONS, March 24 — The United Nations Security Council unanimously agreed Saturday to impose new, more stringent sanctions to press Iran to suspend uranium enrichment and rejoin negotiations over its nuclear program. All 15 members of the Security Council adopted the sanctions, Resolution 1747, which focus on constraining Iranian arms exports, the state-owned Bank Sepah — already under Treasury Department sanctions — and the Revolutionary Guard Corps, an elite military organization separate from the nation’s conventional armed forces.

No surprises were in the resolution, which modestly strengthens largely financial sanctions adopted in December in a first, limited resolution. Senior American officials hailed the new resolution as a significant international rebuke to Iran, and they predicted that the new resolution’s prohibitions on dealings with 15 individuals and 13 organizations would leave Tehran more isolated.

In order to assure a unanimous vote that would symbolize united world opinion against Iran’s nuclear ambitions, lengthy negotiations continued through Friday on a series of amendments from three of the Security Council’s nonpermanent members, South Africa, Indonesia and Qatar. Their votes were seen as particularly important, because South Africa is a leader of the nonaligned movement, Indonesia is the world’s most populous Muslim nation and Qatar is a Gulf neighbor of Iran. The Security Council representatives of those three nations each expressed deep concerns about the final language of the sanctions resolution, but eventually cast yes votes.

The sanctions package approved Saturday, American officials said, was devised to do more than simply punish Iran for its nuclear program, as was the more limited goal of the sanctions vote in December. The new language was written to rein in what they see as Tehran’s ambitions to become the dominant military power in the Persian Gulf and across the broader Middle East.

“We are trying to force a change in the actions and behavior of the Iranian government,” said R. Nicholas Burns, under secretary of state for political affairs. “And so the sanctions are immediately focused on the nuclear weapons research program, but we also are trying to limit the ability of Iran to be a disruptive and violent factor in Middle East politics.”

The resolution calls for freezing the overseas assets of the 15 Iranian citizens and 13 organizations, some involved in the nation’s nuclear programs and missile development efforts and some associated with the Revolutionary Guard. The new resolution prohibits the sale or transfer of Iranian weapons to any nation or organization, and calls on the nations of the world to “exercise vigilance and restraint” in exporting weapons to Iran. The measure invokes Chapter 7, Article 41, of the United Nations charter, rendering most of the provisions mandatory, but excluding military action to enforce them. The sanction on Iran’s fourth-largest bank was written to halt its use as a conduit for money supporting Iran’s nuclear program.

Welche Auswirkungen das schärfere Sanktionsprogramm, welchem auch Russland und China zugestimmt haben, auf den Iran haben wird, bleibt abzuwarten. Sicherlich werden sich im Iran aber die kritischen Stimmen dem Präsidenten gegenüber mehren und die zunehmende Isolation in der Weltgemeinschaft ist dem Handel und Pflegen von Geschäftsbeziehungen nicht förderlich.

Kritik an Ahmadinedschads Haltung wächst im Iran

2007-02-27T18:21:00.000+01:00

Iran's president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, came under fire from domestic critics yesterday for his uncompromising stance on the nuclear issue as the US and Britain launched a new diplomatic effort to agree harsher UN sanctions they hope will force Tehran to halt uranium enrichment.

Mohammad Atrianfar, a respected political commentator, accused the president of using "the language of the bazaar" and said his comments had made it harder for Ali Larijani, the country's top nuclear negotiator, to reach a compromise with European diplomats. The president made global headlines at the weekend by declaring that his country's quest for nuclear energy was an unstoppable train, adding to the sense of crisis as emergency talks got under way in London yesterday.

Critics from across the Iranian political spectrum took him to task for his "no brakes or reverse gear" remarks, bolstering claims in the west that his hardline position may be starting to backfire. "This rhetoric is not suitable for a president and has no place in diplomatic circles," said Mr Atrianfar, a confidant of Hashemi Rafsanjani, an influential regime insider and rival of Mr Ahmadinejad. "It is the language people in the bazaar and alleyways use to address the simplest issues of life."

"The brake exists to get the train safely to its destination," Mr Zahed wrote in the newspaper Etemad-e Melli. "Perhaps on the journey, we might find the track broken and are obliged to move our passengers by using the reverse gear to get to a safer track. Iran is a nation of earthquakes, flood and national disasters! You are our head. We should be able to trust you." Even the fundamentalist newspaper Resalat, usually a supporter of Mr Ahmadinejad, was critical. "Neither weakness nor inexperience and unnecessary rhetorical aggression is acceptable in our foreign policy," it said.

Wenn jetzt selbst von ansonsten treuen Anhängern Kritik an Ahmadinedschads Rhetorik gegenüber dem Rest der Welt geübt wird, scheint die Luft um ihn merklich dünner zu werden.

Weniger technische Unterstützung für den Iran

2007-02-10T12:29:00.000+01:00

The International Atomic Energy Agency said yesterday that it had suspended 22 of its 55 technical aid programs with Iran, giving Washington a modest victory in its efforts to isolate Tehran internationally in the hope of curbing its nuclear ambitions. The agency, in a report to its board, said it had also suspended a number of lesser activities, including three fellowships, participation in a training course and procurement of 15 pieces of equipment. Washington objected to the programs and projects as aiding Tehran’s nuclear efforts, which like many around the world could have military as well as civilian uses.

Ali Asghar Soltanieh, Iran’s ambassador to the agency, based in Vienna, denounced the suspensions as “a very dangerous game” that would have no impact on its disputed nuclear program. Rather, he said in an interview, they will undermine the atomic energy agency’s authority and many countries’ desire to join it. “This is a negative message to developing countries,” Mr. Soltanieh said. “It will put in jeopardy their incentive to become members” of the agency and the treaty that seeks to halt the spread of nuclear weapons.

The United States lobbied hard to have the nuclear agency cut roughly in half its 55 programs of technical aid to Iran, but it faced stiff opposition. Developing countries feared that the cuts would set a bad precedent that could threaten their own aid. An American official said Washington’s position on the disputed projects was similar to that of Britain, France and Germany.

On Friday, Mohamed ElBaradei, the agency’s director, issued a report to its 35-nation board detailing the suspensions called for by the Security Council. It said Iran participated in 55 projects, including 15 individual and 40 regional and interregional endeavors. It further said the agency’s secretariat had determined that cooperation should continue for 33 projects but end for 22 others, including ones meant to aid Iran’s development of nuclear power, its radiation processing of metals and plastics and its improvement of atomic management and strategic planning.

Mr. Soltanieh, Iran’s ambassador to the agency, said the suspensions would be likely to have large political repercussions and strengthen the hand of those Iranians who wanted to cut off all cooperation with the atomic agency. “This will give ammunition to those who are putting pressure on the government,” he said. “This whole thing is making a more poisonous environment.”

Ein sehr zweischneidiges Schwert, die Projekte auf Eis zu legen. Sicherlich ist es eine symbolische Botschaft an den Iran, seine Ambitionen zu überdenken, andererseits verliert die IAEO dadurch an Kontrolle über Irans nukleare Bestrebungen.

Ahmadinedschad- ein orientalischer Prahlhans?

2007-02-04T16:00:00.000+01:00

After decades of largely clandestine efforts, Iran is expected to declare in coming days that it has made a huge leap toward industrial-scale production of enriched uranium — a defiant act that the country’s leaders will herald as a major technical stride and its neighbors will denounce as a looming threat. But for now, many nuclear experts say, the frenetic activity at the desert enrichment plant in Natanz may be mostly about political showmanship. The many setbacks and outright failures of Tehran’s experimental program suggest that its bluster may outstrip its technical expertise. And the problems help explain American intelligence estimates that Iran is at least four years away from producing a nuclear weapon.

What the Iranians are not talking about, experts with access to the atomic agency’s information say, is that their experimental effort to make centrifuges work has struggled to achieve even limited success and appears to have been put on the back burner so the country’s leaders can declare that they are moving to the next stage.
To enrich uranium on an industrial scale, the machines must spin at very high speeds for months on end. But the latest report of the atomic agency, issued in November, said the primitive machines of the Iran’s pilot plant ran only intermittently, to enrich small amounts of uranium. And the Iranians succeeded in setting up just two of the planned six groupings of 164 centrifuges at the pilot plant. “It looks political unless they’ve made progress that we don’t know about,” said Mark Fitzpatrick, a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a weapons analysis group in London.

Iran’s nuclear boasts come in the midst of an increasingly rancorous chess game between Tehran’s mullahs and the Bush administration over the aims of Iran’s nuclear programs, its role in Iraq and its ambitions to become the dominant power in the Middle East. The speculation about imminent conflict has grown so strong that President Bush’s new secretary of defense, Robert M. Gates, who is intimately familiar with Tehran’s nuclear ambitions from his days as director of the Central Intelligence Agency, declared on Friday, “We are not planning for a war with Iran.”

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who has become the face of Iranian defiance, is under growing pressure at home because of unemployment and the squeeze of economic sanctions — and President Bush’s advisers have said he may view a nuclear standoff with the United States as a way to help his standing. That, combined with evidence of problems at the pilot plant, suggest that the industrial push may be aimed as much at enriching Iran’s political leverage as enriching uranium. The Iranians insist their effort is solely to fuel nuclear reactors, a statement that in the recent words of R. Nicholas Burns, the under secretary of state for political affairs, “no country that has seriously looked at the evidence believes.”

Nicht nur, daß Ahmadinedschad innnenpolitisch unter Druck steht, auch sein offensichtliches Streben, aus dem Iran eine atomar bewaffnete Großmacht zu machen, scheint technologisch gesehen auf tönernen Füßen zu stehen. Daher bestehen seine Drohungen, insbesondere gegenüber Israel, auch viel aus Kraftmeierei und Großmannssucht, also aus heißer Luft.

Iran spielt weiter mit verdeckten Karten

2007-02-02T15:37:00.000+01:00

Iran has refused to let U.N. inspectors set up cameras at an underground plant where it is set to begin installing 3,000 centrifuges for full-scale enrichment of nuclear fuel, diplomats said on Friday. Tehran is expected to announce the major escalation in its uranium enrichment drive during Islamic Revolution anniversary celebrations running until February 11, jacking up tensions with Western powers which pushed through U.N. sanctions against it.
Iran's reported refusal to allow the watchdog International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to hook up cameras in the subterranean centrifuge hall at Natanz is not illegal as long as nuclear activity has not yet begun. But Tehran's move, following a ban on 38 of 200 inspectors designated to work in Iran, would up the ante in a showdown with Western powers and underline resentment over their bid to halt a nuclear program Iranian officials insist is entirely peaceful.

Vienna-based diplomats familiar with IAEA operations said Iran blocked inspectors earlier this week from installing surveillance cameras in the Natanz underground complex. ``Iran is not breaking its (non-proliferation) Safeguards Agreement with the IAEA here because nuclear activity has not begun in the plant,'' a diplomat told Reuters. ``But their behavior reflects the rising tensions. They have no incentive to be transparent since they feel the U.N. (sanctions) resolution is illegal, and they seem to want to approve these cameras as part of a negotiated settlement.''
The 3,000 centrifuges, if run nonstop for long periods in interlinked cascades that conduct the fuel production cycle, could yield enough fuel for one atom bomb within a year. The 3,000 are envisaged as the first stage of a planned 54,000. But analysts say Iran has yet to prove it can smoothly operate two cascades of 164 centrifuges each in Natanz's pilot wing, let along the many more cascades it would need to run in tandem underground to enrich more than token amounts of uranium.
Still, the United States and Israel have voiced concern that 3,000 centrifuges will bring Iran to the nuclear ``point of no return,'' and have prompted talk about pre-emptive military strikes on Tehran if sanctions do not halt its activity.

Wieder einmal läßt sich der Iran nicht in die Karten gucken und gibt zu Spekulationen Anlaß. Ob es Nationalstolz ist, der dieses Verhalten begründet, oder tatsächlich die Absicht waffenfähiges Uran zu produzieren, bleibt bisjetzt unklar.

Druck auf Ahmadinedschad im Iran nimmt zu

2007-01-23T22:34:00.000+01:00

Iranische Parlamentarier haben Präsident Ahmadinedschad Abenteurertum und Marktschreierei vorgeworfen. Auch die Medien erhöhen den Druck auf den Präsidenten. Der iranische Präsident Mahmud Ahmadinedschad ist wegen seiner Außenpolitik und seiner scharfen Rhetorik im Parlament offen kritisiert worden. Der Abgeordnete Achbar Alami, der nach Medienberichten im Namen der Parlamentarier sprach, warf Ahmadinedschad am Dienstag «Abenteurertum und Marktschreierei» vor. Dies führe nur zu «negativen und harten Reaktionen verschiedener Länder und internationaler Organisationen», sagte Alami nach Angaben der Nachrichtenagentur ISNA.

Alami kritisierte auch die von Ahmadinedschad initiierte Holocaust-Konferenz. Die Konferenz habe keinen Sinn gehabt und dem Westen nur einen neuen Grund gegeben, den Iran zu verurteilen, erklärte der Abgeordnete.

Ahmadinedschad war wegen seiner Atompolitik in den vergangenen Tagen bereits in Medien kritisiert worden. So hieß es in der Zeitung «Hamschahri», eine diplomatische Lösung im Atomstreit habe sich angebahnt. Ahmadinedschad habe dies jedoch mit seiner schroffen Rhetorik wieder zunichte gemacht.

Der Iran kritisierte unterdessen die Einigung der Europäischen Union auf Sanktionen gegen das Land wegen des Atomstreits als «unlogisch» und rief die EU am Dienstag zu einer Fortsetzung von Verhandlungen über das nationale Atomprogramm auf.

Ahmadinedschad scheint sich mehr und mehr zu einer "lame duck" zu entwickeln. Eine ähnliche Regression durchläuft zur Zeit der amerikanische Präsident.

Ahmadinedschad innenpolitisch unter Druck

2007-01-22T18:22:00.000+01:00

TEHRAN, Jan. 18 — Iran’s outspoken president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, appears to be under pressure from the highest authorities in Iran to end his involvement in its nuclear program, a sign that his political capital is declining as his country comes under increasing international pressure. Just one month after the United Nations Security Council imposed sanctions on Iran to curb its nuclear program, two hard-line newspapers, including one owned by the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, called on the president to stay out of all matters nuclear. In the hazy world of Iranian politics, such a public rebuke was seen as a sign that the supreme leader — who has final say on all matters of state — might no longer support the president as the public face of defiance to the West.

In another sign of pressure on the president to distance himself from the nuclear issue, a second newspaper, run by an aide to the country’s chief nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani, also pressed Mr. Ahmadinejad to end his involvement in the nuclear program. Mr. Larijani also ran for president and was selected for his post by the supreme leader.

“They want to minimize the consequences of sanctions now that they have been imposed,” said Mohammad Atrianfar, an executive at the daily Shargh, which was closed last fall, and a reformist politician. “But they don’t have clear strategy, and they are taking one step at a time.”

That pressure has continued, and the criticism now seems to have gained more credibility in the face of the sanctions and Iran’s troubled economic standing. The United States increased pressure on Iran over its role in Iraq has also raised concerns in Tehran and may be behind efforts to restrain the president, political analysts in Tehran said. “The resolution has decreased Iran’s political credibility in the international community, and so other countries cannot defend Iran,” said Ahmad Shirzad, a reformist politician and a former legislator.

About 50 legislators signed a letter this week calling on the president to appear before Parliament to answer questions about the nuclear program. They need at least 22 more signatures. In another letter, 150 lawmakers criticized the president for his economic policies, which have led to a surge in inflation, and for his failure to submit his annual budget on time. The Iranian stock market, which was already in a slump, continued to decline — falling more rapidly in the past month — as buyers stayed away from the market. The daily Kargozaran reported last week that the number of traders had decreased by 46 percent since the Security Council resolution was passed.

Kargozaran reported that a group of powerful businessmen, the Islamic Coalition Party, met with Mohammad Nahavandian, a senior official at the Supreme National Security Council, and called for moderation in the country’s nuclear policies to prevent further damage to the economy. In the past year, several major European banks have severed their business ties with Iran. Economists say the banks’ actions will also lead to an increase in inflation because importers must turn to complicated ways to finance purchases.

Einmal mehr macht dies deutlich, daß Ahmadinedschads Macht im Westen allzu oft über- und die Vernunft des iranischen Volkes unterschätzt wird.

USA muß nuklearen Iran akzeptieren

2006-10-02T16:03:00.000+02:00

AMERICA will have to learn to live with a nuclear Iran, top US intelligence analysts have concluded at a secret meeting. Senior operatives and analysts from the intelligence community were almost unanimous in their view that little could be done to stop Iran acquiring the components for a nuclear bomb. Bombing Iran's nuclear facilities was rejected on the grounds that the intelligence needed for successful air strikes was lacking. "We only have an imperfect understanding of the extent and location of the Iranian program," said one source with knowledge of last week's meeting near Washington. "Even if we got the order to blow it up, we wouldn't know how to."

The White House's earlier enthusiasm for military strikes if all else failed has cooled after warnings from the Pentagon and intelligence analysts that the risk-to-reward ratio of taking action is too high. At best, 80 per cent of the targets are mapped out and then only sketchily. The "collateral damage" to civilians could be considerable, sources say. "Unless you can be 100 percent effective and set the program back by two decades, you'll just get a short-term delay in the program and you may not produce a result that is better than the current one," an intelligence analyst said.

General John Abizaid, commander of US forces in the Middle East, has warned that striking Iran could cripple oil supplies, unleash a "surrogate" terrorist army and lead to missile attacks on America's regional allies. The army is particularly concerned about Iran's ability to destabilise an already chaotic Iraq. US director of national intelligence John Negroponte has told President George W. Bush that there is no rush to use force as Iran's nuclear program is beset with technical errors.

Despite reports that the Iranians were willing to suspend their program secretly, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has defiantly announced that Iran's "atomic work" would not stop for a single day. Intelligence analysts concluded at last week's meeting that there were no negotiating carrots or sticks, such as sanctions, capable of persuading Iran to halt its pursuit of nuclear know-how - which it maintains is for peaceful energy purposes.

"The conclusion is that America is going to have to live with the bomb unless there's some miracle, such as a major accident, a major defector or an orange revolution," the source added, referring to the people's protests that brought reformers to power in Ukraine. None of these scenarios is considered particularly likely. The nuclear program had broad popular support, the analysts agreed, and a military strike could bolster the clerical regime. Even if Iran was attacked, one analyst said, they would start their efforts again with even greater secrecy.

[Sarah Baxter, Washington
October 02, 2006]

Wenn die USA womöglich mit einer Atommacht Iran leben kann (oder muß) bleibt immer noch die Frage offen, wie es mit der Bereitschaft Israels aussieht, einen derartig ausgestatteten Iran zu akzeptieren?

Iran läßt Ultimatum vertreichen

2006-09-03T17:37:00.000+02:00

A defiant Iran faced the prospect of economic sanctions after U.N. inspectors reported that the country ignored yesterday's deadline to halt its nuclear program and has been hindering efforts to determine whether it seeks to secretly develop nuclear weapons. President Bush, invoking the same language that he used to describe Iraq before the March 2003 invasion, called Iran a "grave threat" and said "there must be consequences" for Tehran's actions. "It is time for Iran to make a choice," Bush said in a speech to the American Legion's national convention in Salt Lake City.

His administration had offered to join talks with Iran and held out the possibility of future cooperation after 27 years' enmity, if Tehran met the United Nations' deadline for suspending its nuclear program. Yesterday, however, U.S. officials said they will demand international sanctions against the Iranian government. "We are going to move this toward a sanctions resolution at the United Nations," said R. Nicholas Burns, undersecretary of state for political affairs. "We expect others to join us."

European officials expressed dismay with Iran but emphasized a commitment to negotiations; they scheduled a meeting next week with Ali Larijani, the Iranian government's point man on nuclear issues. European diplomats will meet with Burns the next day in Berlin to discuss their options.

Iran has insisted that the nuclear program, which it kept hidden for 18 years, is for the production of peaceful energy that it has a right to develop. "The Iranian nation will not accept for one moment any bullying, invasion and violation of its rights," Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said. He called the United States government "tyrannical." His foreign minister said Iran's program is transparently peaceful and will continue.

In yesterday's report, nuclear inspectors with the International Atomic Energy Agency detailed a mountain of circumstantial evidence, collected in the last three years, that suggests Iran is still concealing aspects of its nuclear program. In just six pages, the inspectors complained 18 times about Iran's lack of cooperation, including refusing to hand over crucial documents, denying access to facilities and a new policy of rejecting certain entry visas for some inspectors. As a result, inspectors said, they could not confirm "the peaceful nature of Iran's nuclear program."

But IAEA officials noted yesterday that they have not found proof of a weapons program and said Iran is still complying with basic, mandatory inspections that allow the agency to monitor all of its work with uranium. That access enabled the IAEA to report that Iran had "not suspended its enrichment related activities," as the Security Council required it to do by yesterday.

Iran had said it would be operating three cascades by now, each with 164 centrifuges able to enrich uranium. Instead, one cascade is assembled and is working only sporadically. "Their progress is far less than expected," said David Albright, a nuclear expert who is president of the Institute for Science and International Security. "Whether it's because of technical problems or self-restraint it's hard to gauge, but I don't think the U.S. can deliver on its promise to get hard sanctions when Iran is barely progressing."

Russia and China were reluctant to impose sanctions even before the report came out, playing down the need just weeks after U.S. officials felt they had received assurances from both countries to support such measures. Although many countries appear to share U.S. suspicions about Iran's intentions, they have profound differences with the Bush administration over how to respond and are apprehensive about the goals of a U.S. president who has said that "all options are on the table" in dealing with Tehran.

Also, traces of highly enriched uranium, which can be used for the core of a weapon, were discovered through environmental samples taken at another facility. Previous traces were found to have been the result of used and discarded centrifuge equipment the Iranians bought from Pakistan. Officials at the IAEA said privately yesterday that the new contamination appears to be from old spent fuel the Iranians moved out of harm's way during their eight-year war with Iraq.

By Dafna Linzer
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, September 1, 2006

Das Verstreichen des Ultimatums wird wohl vorerst keine Konsequenzen haben, außer daß die diplomatischen Bemühungen verstärkt werden, wobei sich insbesondere Europa engagiert. Damit Rußland und China grünes Licht für Sanktionen gegen den Iran geben, muß die IAEA erst wesentlich überzeugendere Beweise dafür finden, daß der Iran waffenfähiges Plutonium produzieren will.

Iran setzt Uran-Anreicherung trotz Ultimatum nicht aus

2006-08-20T14:27:00.000+02:00

Wenige Tage vor seiner offiziellen Antwort auf das internationale Angebotspaket im Atomstreit hat der Iran eine Aussetzung seiner Urananreicherung erneut abgelehnt. Kurz nach Beginn eines groß angelegten Manövers testete der Iran unterdessen zehn Kurzstreckenraketen.

(Handelsblatt, 20.08.06)

Der Test der Kurzstreckenraketen erscheint einerseits als "Kraftmeierei" oder ein symbolisches Zurschaustellen der "Muggies", andererseits ist ein unmittelbarer Zusammenhang zum aktuellen Konflikt im Libanon nicht auszuschließen. Ist der Test möglicherweise als drohender Zeigefinger, als ein Scharren mit den Hufen zu verstehen?

In anderen Quellen wird berichtet, daß die iranische Regierungen dem Vorschlag nicht in allen Punkten ablehnt, sondern zu einigen Punkten Verhandlungen wünscht. Dieses Ergebnis war zu erwarten. Nachdenklich stimmt ein Absatz in diesem Artikel:

Asefi bezeichnete diese Resolution als inakzeptabel und ohne rechtliche Grundlage. „Die Islamische Republik Iran wird nicht akzeptieren, dass vier oder fünf Menschen für den Rest der Welt entscheiden“, sagt er. Zugleich kündigte er an, die Antwort auf die Vorschläge des Sicherheitsrats würden mehrere Dimensionen haben, weil auch das Vorschlagspaket mehrdimensional sei.

(Handelsblatt, 20.08.06)

Manchmal frage ich mich auch, ob es wirklich rechtens ist, daß eine Handvoll Leute über den Einsatz von nuklearen Waffen entscheidet. Ist an der iranischen Sicht der Dinge nicht auch dieses berühmte "Körnchen Wahrheit"? Wie denken Sie über die Haltung der iranischen Regierung?

So könnte sie aussehen

2006-07-29T12:59:00.000+02:00

KUALA LUMPUR, July 28 (RIA Novosti) - A resolution being prepared by the United Nations Security Council on Iran's nuclear program must not include an ultimatum, but should make the requirements set by the UN nuclear watchdog binding, Russia's foreign minister said Friday. The resolution "will only confirm the requirements of the International Atomic Energy Agency, and if Iran responds to the proposals of the six [countries mediating the issue] soon, it will not be necessary to adopt a resolution," Sergei Lavrov said at the ASEAN Regional Forum, a security conference attended by 25 countries and the European Union.

The International Atomic Energy Agency has demanded that Iran re-impose a moratorium on its controversial nuclear research program and observe the nuclear non-proliferation regime. "I think that an Iran-6 proposal is very constructive, and gives full opportunities for putting forward any issues, and negotiating means for Iran to execute its legitimate right to develop its civilian nuclear energy sector," in conditions where nobody will have suspicions that Iran is developing nuclear weapons.

Lavrov said the lack of a response from Iran had forced the UN Security Council to resume work on an Iran resolution, which had been frozen to enable negotiations with the country. Lavrov said earlier this month that Iran-6 members were convinced that the UN Security Council should adopt a resolution to oblige Iran to halt uranium enrichment. If Iran refuses to cooperate, the international community would have to resort to punitive measures stipulated by the UN Charter. The leaders of the Group of Eight leading industrialized nations said at the recent G8 summit in St. Petersburg that they supported a decision by the Iran-6 to return discussions of the Iran nuclear issue to the UN Security Council.

Ob eine solch zahnlose Resolution einen essentiellen Fortschritt in diesem Konflikt bewirken kann, bleibt abzuwarten.

Die Resolution steht

2006-07-29T12:41:00.000+02:00

Bei ihren Beratungen über eine Iran-Resolution stehen Deutschland und die fünf Veto-Mächte offenbar vor einer Einigung. Der gemeinsame Entwurf könnte schon am Freitag dem UN-Sicherheitsrat vorgelegt werden, sagten Diplomaten nach dem Treffen vom Donnerstag in New York. Die Unterhändler der sechs Länder sollten sich demnach am Donnerstagabend mit ihren Regierungen beraten und am Freitagmorgen über die Vorlage des Textes entscheiden. In diesem Fall solle der Sicherheitsrat Anfang kommender Woche über die Resolution abstimmen.[AFP; 28.07.2006 00:54]

Ein überarbeiteter Entwurf für eine Iran-Resolution des UN-Sicherheitsrats gibt Teheran bis Ende August Zeit für den Stopp seines Programms zur Urananreicherung. Komme die Führung in Teheran nicht bis zum 31. August den Forderungen der internationalen Gemeinschaft nach, müsse sie mit Sanktionen rechnen, sagte der US-Botschafter bei den Vereinten Nationen, John Bolton, am Freitag in New York. Laut Bolton sollte der Entwurf am Freitagabend dem Sicherheitsrat vorgelegt werden. In Fall einer Einigung könnte der Sicherheitsrat Anfang kommender Woche über die Resolution abstimmen. [AFP; 28.07.2006 18:43]

Sollten China und Rußland tatsächlich Sanktionen zustimmen, wäre interesant zu erfahren, wie es letztendlich gelungen ist, sie dazu zu bewegen.

Oder doch nicht?

2006-07-16T12:41:00.000+02:00

Teheran (dpa) - Der Iran hat im Streit um sein Atomprogramm eine Antwort auf den Kompromissvorschlag der internationalen Gemeinschaft von vorherigen Verhandlungen abhängig gemacht.

«Es gibt nach wie vor einige Einzelheiten, die vor einer Entscheidung über das Atom-Angebot geklärt werden sollten, und diese Details sollten zunächst geklärt werden durch ernsthafte und offene Verhandlungen», sagte Außenamtssprecher Hamid-Reza Assefi am Sonntag in Teheran. Er fügte hinzu, dass der Iran das Angebot der fünf ständigen Mitglieder des UN-Sicherheitsrats und Deutschlands weiterhin als durchaus angemessen erachte. Aber das Paket enthalte Möglichkeiten, die nur durch Verhandlungen ihre erwarteten langfristigen und strategischen Ziele erreichen könnten.

Der Kompromissvorschlag sieht Unterstützung des Westens beim Bau eines Leichtwasserreaktors und bei der Entwicklung der friedlichen Nutzung der Kernenergie vor. Im Gegenzug soll sich Teheran verpflichten, alle Aktivitäten zur Urananreicherung auszusetzen und voll mit der Internationalen Atombehörde (IAEO) zusammenarbeiten. EU-Chefdiplomat Javier Solana hatte den Kompromissvorschlag Anfang Juni dem Iran unterbreitet. Seitdem wartet die internationale Gemeinschaft vergeblich auf eine Antwort. Die fünf Vetomächte und Deutschland hatten daher am Mittwoch erneut den Weltsicherheitsrat eingeschaltet.

Die Drohung mit dem UN-Sicherheitsrat scheint bei der iranischen Regierung zu ziehen. Bleibt zu hoffen, daß nun endlich direkte Gespräche und Verhandlungen beginnen.

Und zurück zum Sicherheitsrat

2006-07-12T19:31:00.000+02:00

Paris (AFP) - Der Streit um das iranische Atomprogramm wird wieder vor den Sicherheitsrat der Vereinten Nationen gebracht. Dies teilte der französische Außenminister Philippe Douste-Blazy nach einem Treffen der Außenminister der fünf Vetomächte und Deutschlands in Paris mit. "Die Iraner haben keinerlei Anzeichen für eine ernsthafte Gesprächsbereitschaft gezeigt", sagte der Minister. Daher gebe es keine andere Möglichkeit, als den UN-Sicherheitsrat erneut mit dem Thema zu betrauen.

Der Westen hatte gefordert, dass Teheran sein auch militärisch nutzbares Programm zur Urananreicherung aussetzen soll. Im Gegenzug dafür will die internationale Gemeinschaft dem Iran wirtschaftliche und politische Unterstützung gewähren.

An dem Treffen in der französischen Hauptstadt nahmen neben Douste-Blazy US-Außenministerin Condoleezza Rice, Bundesaußenminister Frank-Walter Steinmeier (SPD), ihre britische Kollegin Margaret Beckett, der russische Außenminister Sergej Lawrow, der stellvertretende chinesische Ressortchef Zhang Yesui sowie der EU-Außenbeauftragte Javier Solana teil. Solana hatte am Vortag in Brüssel mit dem iranischen Chefunterhändler Ali Laridschani gesprochen. Nach Angaben einer Sprecherin Solanas war das Gespräch mit Laridschani "enttäuschend" verlaufen.

Das Wechselspiel aus Spannung und Entspannung in diesem Konflikt setzt sich also weiter fort.

Tausche Atommüll gegen Veto II

2006-07-12T19:24:00.000+02:00

The US is expected to make significant concessions to Russia over the storage of nuclear fuel in order to win backing for foreign policy, reports say. According to newspapers including the Washington Post, the US is keen to get Russia's support as it tackles concerns including Iran and North Korea. President George W Bush is due to meet with Russia's President Vladimir Putin later this week at the G8 summit. The reported offer signifies a shift in US-Russian relations, analysts say.

On Monday, the Wall Street Journal claimed that the US would have to make a number of concessions because it "needs Russia more than Russia needs the US". According to the newspaper, as well as lifting a ban on storing spent nuclear fuel, the US was also offering to back Russia's membership of the World Trade Organisation and give Russian companies freer access to US markets.

Many observers are predicting that President Bush and Mr Putin will announce greater co-operation over nuclear issues at the upcoming G8 summit of industrialised nations later this week in St Petersburg.

Talks, which are expected to take months, will focus on giving Russia a larger chunk of the multi-billion dollar nuclear-waste disposal industry. The US has stopped Russia from handling its nuclear fuel because of concerns about security and the way in which Moscow provided technology to other nations including Iran. A main concern is that the nuclear waste could be used to provide radioactive material for weapons.

The paper quoted Robert Einhorn, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, as saying the US then realised that concessions could help bring Russia more on board with its efforts over Iran. "They had reached the conclusion that entering the negotiations would provide continuing leverage," Mr Einhorn was reported to have said.

Auf dem baldigen G8 Gipfel wird sich zeigen, was an diesem Deal dran ist.

Tausche Atommüll gegen Veto

2006-07-12T19:12:00.000+02:00

Das russische Parlament befürwortet Import von ausländischen Nuklearabfällen zur Endlagerung in Sibirien. Völlig einzigartig ist die Situation in Russland. Wenn die Welt der Meinung sei, man könne seinem Land Atommüll anvertrauen, dann bitte sehr, meinte Vladimir Tschuprow von Greenpeace- Russland ironisch.

Die Verhältnisse seien immerhin so demokratisch, dass einfach 600 000 Unterschriften auf Listen für einen Volksentscheid für ungültig erklärt wurden. Schon am Ufer des Karatschai-Sees könne man eine lebensbedrohliche Strahlendosis abbekommen. Der atomare Komplex sei in Russland ein Staat im Staate. Ein Minister entscheide darüber, ob das Land eine internationale Atommülldeponie werde. Die Entscheidung dafür sei längst gefallen. Nur das Zögern der US-Regierung wegen der russischen Lieferung von AKWs an den Iran und die Haltung der deutschen Regierung, die den Export ablehne, bedeute derzeit noch ein Hindernis.

Im Gegenzug für die Milliarden an Müllgebühren erwartet die USA von Rußland, daß es bei Sanktionen gegen den Iran im UN-Sicherheitsrat kein Veto einlegt, so hört man.

Die Geduldsprobe

2006-07-05T20:20:00.000+02:00

Washington (AP) Die amerikanische Außenministerin Condoleezza Rice hat den Iran am Mittwoch vor einer Verschleppung der Atomgespräche gewarnt. Ein solches Vorhaben werde nicht gelingen, sagte Rice auf einer Pressekonferenz mit dem türkischen Außenminister Abdullah Gül in Ankara. Die internationale Gemeinschaft müsse wissen, ob der Weg der Verhandlungen offen stehe oder nicht. Die Ministerin erklärte weiter, man erwarte noch vor dem G-8-Gipfel, der am 15. Juli in Sankt Peterburg beginnt, «eine substanzielle Antwort» von Teheran. Zuvor hatte der Iran Gespräche mit EU-Chefdiplomat Javier Solana über sein umstrittenes Atomprogramm überraschend um 24 Stunden auf Donnerstag verschoben.

Der Atomkonflikt mit dem Iran wird immer mehr zu einer Geduldsprobe, sowohl für den unbeteiligten, aber besorgten Beobachter und erst recht natürlich für seine Protagonisten. Dies vor allem ist wohl hinter der Warnung von Rice an den Iran zu vermuten.

Iran plant unverzüglich Gespräche mit Solana

2006-06-25T21:05:00.000+02:00

Teheran (dpa) - Der Iran plant ein Treffen mit dem EU- Außenbeauftragten Javier Solana über die internationalen Vorschläge im Atomstreit. Der iranische Nuklear-Chefunterhändler Ali Larijani sagte: «Ich denke, dass ich bald mit Solana zusammenkomme und dass das Treffen nützlich ist, um bestimmte Fragen im Zusammenhang mit dem Vorschlag zu klären.» Der Iran stehe diesen Vermittlungsplänen im wesentlichen positiv gegenüber. Deutschland hatte den Iran nochmals eindringlich zu einem raschen Einlenken im Atomstreit aufgefordert.

Trügt mich hier mein Gespür, oder zeichnet sich trotz manch bedenklicher präsidialer Zwischentöne aus Washington und Teheran nicht immer mehr eine diplomatische Lösung dieses Konfliktes ab?

USA stellt nukleartechnologische Kooperation mit Indien in Frage

2006-06-24T11:28:00.000+02:00

NEW DELHI (Reuters) - India said on Friday a landmark nuclear deal with the United States should be based on the original commitments made by the two sides, sidestepping new moves to link the pact to its stand on Iran's atomic program. New Delhi's comments came after a leading U.S. lawmaker warned this week the civilian nuclear energy cooperation deal could be jeopardized if India sided with non-aligned states in backing Iran's atomic ambitions.

Democratic Rep. Tom Lantos of California said the controversial deal was on track to be voted on by the Congress next month, but approval would be at risk if leaders in New Delhi did not "act responsibly." A draft of the bill prepared for action next week by a key House of Representatives committee also calls for New Delhi's support for Washington's efforts to stop Tehran acquiring weapons of mass destruction. "There have been a number of U.S. senators and congressmen who have expressed different views concerning the Indo-U.S. nuclear agreement," an Indian Foreign Ministry spokesman said in response to questions about Lantos' remarks.

"We have been negotiating the nuclear deal with the U.S. administration on the pemise that it is an agreement about civil nuclear energy cooperation on the basis of mutual benefit." The deal should be based on commitments made by the two countries when it was first agreed in principle last year and it was the responsibility of the U.S. administration to get the legislation approved by Congress, he added. India's traditional ties with Iran have haunted the controversial pact since
President George W. Bush and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh agreed to it last July.

Although New Delhi has since backed Washington at the International Atomic Energy Agency against Tehran's atomic program, its decision to oppose its old friend and a major source of its soaring energy needs drew strong criticism at home. As a result, India has been cagey of making any clear commitments against Iran.

The nuclear deal aims to reverse a three-decade ban on sales of U.S. atomic fuel and reactors to India as ties between the two countries, once on opposite sides of the Cold War, warm considerably. But members of the U.S. congress and non-proliferation experts have criticized it, saying it encourages weapons proliferation as India has not signed the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Wieder einmal zeigt sich hier, daß die derzeitige Bush-Regierung in ihren außenpolitischen Beziehungen ungerne Ambivalenzen duldet, sie wollen nicht den kleinen Finger, sondern sie fordern stets die ganze Hand! Es bleibt abzuwarten, wie sich das geopolitisch und strategisch so wichtige Indien positionieren wird.

Ein Schritt zurück

2006-06-19T19:44:00.000+02:00

King's Point (AFP) - US-Präsident George W. Bush hat dem Iran mit schärferen politischen und wirtschaftlichen Sanktionen gedroht, sollte das Land nicht seine umstrittenen Nuklearaktivitäten einstellen. "Wenn die iranische Führung unser Angebot ablehnt, wird der Fall vor den UN-Sicherheitsrat gebracht, der Iran international noch stärker isoliert, und es wird schrittweise schärfere politische und wirtschaftliche Sanktionen geben", sagte Bush am Montag in King's Point im US-Bundesstaat New York.

Die USA und ihre Partner seien "vereint", fügte er hinzu. Das Angebot der fünf UN-Vetomächte und Deutschlands sei "vernünftig" und eine "historische Gelegenheit" für die iranische Regierung, "ihr Land auf einen besseren Kurs zu bringen". Bush zeigte Verständnis für den "legitimen Wunsch" der Iraner, zivile Atomenergie zu nutzen, solange diese "mit echten internationalen Schutzmechanismen einhergehen".
Das iranische Fernsehen zitierte Präsident Mahmud Ahmadinedschad mit den Worten, Teheran wolle einen "gerechten und gleichberechtigten Dialog ohne Vorbedingungen". Ein Gegenvorschlag zum internationalen Verhandlungsangebot sei "in Arbeit".

Nachdem sich noch vor einigen Tagen eine gewisse Entspannung in diesem Konflikt abgezeichnet hat, verschärft der amerikanische Präsident wieder die Tonlage. Warum er das gerade jetzt macht, darüber darf gerne spekuliert werden!

Ein Schritt vorwärts

2006-06-16T16:55:00.000+02:00

Schanghai/Wien/Teheran (dpa) - Der Iran sieht in dem Vermittlungsvorschlag der fünf ständigen Mitglieder des Weltsicherheitsrates und Deutschlands zur Lösung des Atomstreits einen Schritt vorwärts. "Wir werden es (das Paket) sorgfältig prüfen und zu gegebener Zeit antworten". Das sagte der iranische Präsident Mahmud Ahmadinedschad am Freitag in Schanghai. Erst am Vortag hatte der iranische Vertreter bei der Sitzung des Gouverneursrates der Internationalen Atomenergie-Organisation (IAEO) in Wien die Bereitschaft seines Landes zu Verhandlungen mit den UN- Vetomächten und Deutschland erklärt.

Der Gouverneursrat hatte Teheran aufgefordert, weiter mit der UN- Atombehörde zusammenzuarbeiten. Die überwältigende Mehrheit der 35 Mitgliedsländer habe Teheran gedrängt, die in den vergangenen Wochen nahezu eingestellte Kooperation mit Wien wieder aufzunehmen, sagte ein westlicher Diplomat nach dem Treffen am Donnerstag. In Schanghai hatte der russische Präsident Wladimir Putin am Donnerstag erklärt, er rechne in naher Zukunft mit einer iranischen Antwort auf die Vorschläge zur Lösung des Atomstreites. Die iranische Seite habe sehr positiv auf die Vorschläge reagiert.

Der chinesische Staats- und Parteichef Hu Jintao forderte Ahmadinedschad am Freitag auf, die Vorschläge ernsthaft zu prüfen und aktiv zu antworten. Der Iran solle die Nukleargespräche bald wieder aufnehmen. Das neue Vorschlagspaket biete eine neue Gelegenheit für die Lösung des Problems, sagte Hu Jintao. China verstehe Irans Besorgnisse über sein Recht zur friedlichen Nutzung der Kernenergie. Ahmadinedschad war wegen des Gipfeltreffens der Schanghaier Kooperationsorganisation (SCO) in der Hafenstadt. Der Iran hat Beobachterstatus in der SCO.

Der Zentralrat der Juden in Deutschland forderte die Bundesregierung am Freitag auf, gegen den Iran Wirtschaftssanktionen zu verhängen. Die Bundesregierung muss ihrer Kritik an dem Mullah- Regime endlich Taten folgen lassen, sagte der Generalsekretär des Zentralrates, Stephan Kramer, der Netzeitung. Kramer warf der Bundesregierung eine mangelnde politische Auseinandersetzung mit dem Iran vor.

Ob die positiven Signale Ahmadinedschads ernstgemeint sind, oder ob es sich nur um eine weitere Hinhaltetaktik des Irans handelt, muß die Zukunft zeigen.

Blockfreie Staaten unterstützen Iran

2006-06-15T18:20:00.000+02:00

VIENNA--The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) was set for a debate on Iran that could start on Wednesday or Thursday at the meeting in Vienna of the IAEA's 35-nation board of governors. South African delegate chief Abdul Minty said that non-aligned countries would repeat in Vienna a call made by non-aligned foreign ministers in Kuala Lumpur in May that backs Iran's right to the nuclear fuel activity of uranium enrichment, which can also be used to make nuclear weapons material.

Diplomats said that Washington was fighting to prevent such a statement at the Vienna-based IAEA as the United States wants to keep up pressure on Iran. But many non-aligned states aspire to nuclear technology and are as much concerned about protecting their right to enrich uranium as Iran's, diplomats said. The United States wanted the bloc of 16 mostly developing nations on the IAEA board to stick to a February IAEA resolution that eight of the non-aligned had supported. It had called on Iran to suspend uranium enrichment in order to establish international confidence and start talks.

Iran's Ambassador the IAEA Ali Asghar Soltanieh said that Iran appreciated the non-aligned position. "For the past three years, the uninterrupted support of the NAM [non-aligned movement] has been invaluable," Soltanieh told reporters, adding that the stance from the 116-nation bloc "shows that the majority of the international community supports Iran."

World powers stressed the benefits that Iran can draw from guaranteeing that its nuclear program is peaceful and downplayed the threat of sanctions when they had offered Tehran the deal last week, diplomats said. The incentives package does stipulate, however, that Tehran has to suspend uranium enrichment until its nuclear activities are proven to be peaceful, according to a copy of the confidential text.

European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana did not present a list of sanctions in the text that he handed over personally on June 6 in Tehran to Iran's top nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani, the diplomats said. "We only handed over the positive part. The idea was not to give Iran a pretext to turn the proposal down," a European diplomat close to the IAEA said. But Western diplomats have stressed that there are two paths open to Iran, one of cooperation and benefits and the other of UN penalties. [AFP]

Wenn die blockfreien Staaten Irans Urananreicherungsprogramm unterstützen, weil sie selbst Ambitionen in diese Richtung haben, macht dies dann nicht die Sanktionsdrohungen zu einem zahnlosen Papiertiger, da sich viele Staaten nicht daran gebunden werden fühlen? Wenn, den Iran als Vorbild nehmend, dutzende anderer Länder mit einer Urananreicherung bis hin zur Nuklearwaffenfähigkeit beginnen, macht dies die Welt wirklich gerechter oder gar sicherer?

Iran macht weiter

2006-06-09T15:50:00.000+02:00

Iran begins fresh atom enrichment despite powers' offer

VIENNA (Reuters) - Iran began a fresh phase of uranium enrichment this week just as world powers presented it with incentives to halt nuclear fuel work, according to a U.N. nuclear watchdog agency report obtained by Reuters on Thursday. The report, emailed to the 35 states on the International Atomic Energy Agency's governing board ahead of a meeting starting on Monday, also said Iran was pressing ahead with installing more cascades of centrifuge enrichment machines. Authored by IAEA chief Mohammed ElBaradei, the report said Iran resumed feeding "UF6" uranium gas into its pilot 164-centrifuge cascade in Natanz on Tuesday after a pause of several weeks to do test runs of the machines without UF6.

Tuesday was the day European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana visited Tehran to hand over a packet of economic, technological and security incentives for Iran to suspend work which could eventually produce atomic bombs. The Islamic Republic says the goal of its nuclear fuel program is solely electricity generation for its economy. The West suspects Iran, the world's No. 4 oil producer, of creating a smokescreen for atomic bombmaking.

"This underlines the fact that the temporary halt was technical in nature. It's a continuation of Iranian policy to profit from all worlds, dialogue to gain time while continuing to strive for an atomic bomb," the source said. ElBaradei's report said Iran had also launched a new drive on Tuesday to transform raw uranium ore into UF6 gas at its Isfahan conversion plant. As of April, Iran has stockpiled 118 tonnes of UF6 at Isfahan.

A senior U.N. official familiar with ElBaradei's report said a few of the 164 centrifuges in the Natanz cascade had crashed since April but Iranian scientists apparently isolated the problem and kept the rest of the network running. But he said the pause in enrichment could also have been prompted by a wish "not to rock the boat" at a crunch time in Iran's stand-off with six world powers, who agreed last week to consider sanctions if Tehran rebuffed the incentives package.

With 164 centrifuges, it would take more than 10 years to produce enough highly enriched uranium (HEU), the fissile core of an atomic bomb. But Iran has said it aims to have 3,000 centrifuges installed by early 2007, enough to yield highly enriched uranium for a warhead within a year if spinning nonstop. The report confirmed word from diplomats that new traces of hihgly enriched uranium had turned up on equipment that may have come from Lavizan-Shian, a former military site razed by Iran in 2004 before IAEA inspectors could get there to examine it.

ElBaradei's report said Tehran in general was still stonewalling IAEA probes into military links with nuclear fuel work, echoing earlier assessments. Vienna diplomats familiar with IAEA inquiries say Iran is withholding answers as bargaining chips for any talks with U.N. Security Council powers on its nuclear goals.
By Mark Heinrich

Wenn der Iran tatsächlich bis nächstes Jahr 10.000 funktionsfähige Zentrifugen besitzt, ist er wirklich nicht mehr weit davon entfernt, selbst Nuklearwaffen produzieren zu können. Die Bedingung für die, diese Woche angebotenen Gespräche, daß der Iran seine Urananreicherung vorerst stoppen soll, wird Ahmadinedschad wohl kaum erfüllen, denn alles andere würde für ihn einen erheblichen Gesichtsverlust bedeuten.

Das ökonomische Paradoxon Iran

2006-06-02T20:40:00.000+02:00

Plenty of Oil, but Few Refineries for Iran

By BRIAN MURPHY

TEHRAN, Iran -- Iran is flush with huge oil reserves and cash, but a refinery shortage leaves it heavily dependent on imported gasoline and diesel to keeps its cars and trucks rolling. That's one reason the country- already beset with economic troubles- is desperate to avoid U.N. sanctions over its nuclear program. "Oil is where Iran is most vulnerable," said Behzad Nabavi, a former lawmaker who also headed a state-directed oil company, Petropars. "It's one of the great economic paradoxes."

Even a moderate drop in gasoline or diesel imports as a result of sanctions would be a punishing blow for an economy with many soft spots- double-digit inflation, chronic unemployment and cumbersome state controls among them. One of the possible sanctions under consideration Thursday at a meeting in Austria of the five permanent U.N. Security Council members and Germany will be an embargo on exporting refined petroleum products to Iran. After a flurry of telephone diplomacy, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice announced Wednesday that the Americans would be ready to join in talks with Iran over the nuclear dispute.

Iran imports more than 40 percent of its gasoline and diesel needs. It comes mostly from the Middle East but also from as far away as Venezuela. Closing the import tap could force Iran to either impose rationing- as it did during the 1980-88 war with Iraq- or raise prices and risk a backlash from a public accustomed to paying more for bottled water than gasoline.

Making up the refinery shortage would take years, meaning Iran would have no alternative fuel supplies if hit by U.N. sanctions. The United States and its European allies want sanctions imposed if Iran refuses to give up its uranium enrichment program, which is feared to be designed for producing nuclear weapons. "Iran really does not have a lot of room to maneuver on the basic issue of refinery capacity and demand," said Narsi Ghorban, an independent energy consultant based in Tehran.

"Iran has a vision of being a regional economic and technological powerhouse. They know very well this vision will not be realized ... by domestic companies alone," said Siamak Namazi, managing director of Atieh Bahar Consulting, a Tehran-based firm providing economic surveys and analysis. "High oil prices mean (Iran) is less reliant on outside financing. They have their own money. But that doesn't help the technology gap," he said. Many other investors have either pulled out of the Iranian market or put plans on hold on fears the nuclear standoff could lead to U.N. punishments or possible military action.

Yet that hasn't stopped everyone. Suitors keep knocking at the door for a piece of Iran's energy wealth, including its vast natural gas reserves. China's state energy company has signed deals for natural gas. India and Pakistan are negotiating for a possible pipeline from Iran's natural gas fields. Those deals display the growing disregard for Washington policy. In 1996, the U.S. said it would consider sanctions on any company that invests more than $20 million annually in the Iranian oil and gas sectors. The threat was never enforced.
© 2006 The Associated Press

Womöglich sollte bei künftigen Verhandlungen mit dem Iran als "Bonbon" nicht der Bau von modernen Leichtwasserreaktoren abgeboten werden sondern die Montage effektiv arbeitender Raffinerien!

Nationaler Sicherheitsberater Rußlands zu Gesprächen im Iran

2006-05-26T16:07:00.000+02:00

LONDON, May 26 (IranMania) - Russian National Security Council secretary Igor Ivanov is to visit Iran in the coming days for talks on the Islamic republic's disputed nuclear programme, an official source said, AFP reported. The source said Ivanov had been invited by his Iranian counterpart, Ali Larijani, who is also Iran's top nuclear negotiator. No further details were given.

The trip will follow a meeting in London on Wednesday of senior officials from Britain, France, China, Russia and the United States, the five permanent United Nations Security Council members, as well as Germany. The big powers discussed a European proposal aimed at breaking Iran's determination to enrich uranium, a process which can be extended from making reactor fuel to nuclear weapons.

The foreign ministers of six world powers look set to meet shortly to decide how to proceed on the crisis after progress was apparently made at the London meeting. Mohamed ElBaradei, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, has also suggested that Tehran was willing to compromise on enrichment.

Endlich zeigt auch Rußland Initiative, zu einer friedlichen Lösung des Konfliktes beizutragen. Ist nun ein Ende der russischen Blockadehaltung im UN-Sicherheitsrat zu erwarten?