"friday-lunch-club"

The New York Times WANTS mayhem in Syria!

2013-05-18T18:07:00.004-04:00

Look at the title:

"Syria’s Assad, in an Interview, Suggests Peace Talks Are Unlikely to Succeed"

... and then look at context:

"... “We do not believe that many Western countries really want a solution in Syria,” Mr. Assad told Argentina’s Clarín newspaper in an interview published online on Saturday, blaming those countries for supporting “terrorists” fighting his government.“We support and applaud the efforts, but we must be realistic,” he said, referring to efforts by the United States and Russia to broker talks in June. “There cannot be a unilateral solution in Syria; two parties are needed at least.”
Mr. Assad took a hard line throughout the interview, according to a transcript in English provided in advance to The New York Times. (case closed) ..."

Is flip-flopping US sponsored Idriss next after Hitto?

2013-05-18T14:49:00.001-04:00

"...Immediately after Hitto’s narrow victory in the coalition’s vote, several members suspended their membership and the armed wing of the group – the Free Syrian Army command – issued a statement that it (first) opposed his election.The U.S.-recognized rebel commander, defected Gen. Salim Idriss, since has reversed that stance,..."

From one success, to another ...and another ...

2013-05-18T14:46:00.001-04:00

"... Hitto’s ouster after just two months would deal a double blow to the State Department, which has spent more than $60 million to boost the credibility of the Syrian opposition. In April, the group’s first president, Mouaz al Khatib, stepped down after just five months in office, to be replaced by George Sabra...."

Jabhat al Nusra is dead; Long live Jabhaaat al Nusra!

2013-05-18T14:39:00.000-04:00

Jabhat al Nusra is dead; Long live Jabhaaat al Nusra!

"... Al Qaeda's Iraq-based wing, which nurtured Nusra in the early stages of the rebellion against Assad, has moved in and sidelined the organization, Nusra sources and other rebels say.Al Qaeda in Iraq includes thousands of foreign fighters whose ultimate goal is not toppling Assad but the anti-Western jihad of al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahri - a shift which could extend Syria's conflict well beyond any political accord between Assad and his foes... And if the West were to intervene, it may now be under pressure to attack al Qaeda opposition forces rather than Assad.
"Nusra is now two Nusras. One that is pursuing al Qaeda's agenda of a greater Islamic nation, and another that is Syrian with a national agenda to help us fight Assad, It is disintegrating from within" said a senior rebel commander in Syria who has close ties to the Nusra Front. Others said that Nusra's Syrian contingent has already effectively collapsed ... , ..., ...

Nusra sources said they were waiting for Zawahri to settle the issue, hoping he would call on Baghdadi to return to Iraq.
"We have two choices now. Either Zawahri announces the separation of Syria's Nusra from Iraq's Islamic State, or he orders Baghdadi to stay (in Syria) and if this happen then its a disaster," said one Nusra source. "Baghdadi has harmed the Nusra Front. He caused great damage and broke up the front."
But the Syrian rebel commander, who is from a Western-backed rebel group, said that Baghdadi already had Zawahri's blessing when he moved in....
The senior rebel commander said he even expected the growing clout of Baghdadi's fighters would finally end the West's reluctance to intervene militarily in Syria - not against Assad, but his hardline enemies.
"We expect soon drone attacks, like Yemen, to begin against al Qaeda members," he said.... "

Revaluation of a strategic importance: "The Middle East lost its status as the default energy supplier to the US!"

2013-05-18T14:25:00.002-04:00

'The debate within the foreign policy community about Syria continues to rage, with no decisions forthcoming. As a senior analyst in the military intelligence community remarked to us: “for every reason in favor of taking action, there is an equally compelling reason not to. We just can’t puzzle out how to make this work for us.” The situation of indecision remains, therefore, much as we have been reporting for some weeks and we see little immediate scope for US military intervention short of a catastrophic humanitarian crisis. Underlying this stand-back approach in the White House, some strategic changes in the US posture to the Middle East are beginning to manifest themselves. Some commentators refer to this as a “retreat,” but from our private exchanges with senior officials, we see an incipient revaluation in progress of the strategic importance to the US of the Middle East. To be sure, the pace of diplomatic activity continues unbroken. Despite a series of contentious domestic troubles, there is no sign of inattention in President Obama’s discussions with visiting Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan, the meetings between Secretary of Defense Hagel and his foreign counterparts and the renewed travel to the Middle East by Secretary of State Kerry. An important new report from the International Energy Agency, however, sets out a new context for US energy supplies. Simply put, the Middle East is losing its status as the default energy supplier to the US. In an exchange with an NSC official on this subject, he remarked to us: “This phenomenon will take a long time to work its way through the system, but over the years the emergence of virtual North American energy sufficiency will be as important a development as the collapse of the Soviet Union. The temptation to draw in our overall presence will be very great.” Rather than trying to resolve what are increasingly seen as insoluble Middle East regional issues, the US may start focusing more on global challenges like terrorism spreading into Northern Nigeria and the rise of China’s military power. As Obama prepares to travel to next month’s G8 summit, some of this new orientation in US policy may become more apparent.'

“Better the devil we know than the demons we can only imagine..."

2013-05-18T14:02:00.001-04:00

Report: " ...“Better the devil we know than the demons we can only imagine if Syria falls into chaos and the extremists from across the Arab world gain a foothold there,” one senior Israeli intelligence officer was quoted as saying..."

Russia sends 'no-fly-zone' busting missiles to Syria

2013-05-18T11:23:00.000-04:00

"...Unlike Scud and other longer-range surface-to-surface missiles that the Assad government has used against opposition forces, the Yakhont antiship missile system provides the Syrian military a formidable weapon to counter any effort by international forces to reinforce Syrian opposition fighters by imposing a naval embargo, establishing a no-fly zone or carrying out limited airstrikes. ..."

Qatar's gambit in Syria: "Decreasing ability to influence & becoming a scapegoat for all participants"

2013-05-18T10:55:00.001-04:00

"... Yet, as the Arab world’s bloodiest uprising grinds on into its third year, Qatar finds itself pulled into a complicated and fractured conflict, the outcome of which has a decreasing ability to influence, while simultaneously becoming a high-profile scapegoat for participants on both sides. Among the Syrian regime’s numerous but fragmented opponents the small Gulf state evokes a surprisingly ambivalent – and often overtly hostile – response... Qatar has been in the lead, readily disgorging its gas-generated wealth in the pursuit of the downfall of the House of Assad. Qatar’s role in Syria seems uncharacteristically prominent for a country that lacks the diplomatic experience and traditional heavyweight status of a more discreet Saudi Arabia.In the shell-blasted areas of rebel-held Syria, few appear to be aware of the vast sums that Qatar has contributed – estimated by rebel and diplomatic sources to be about $1bn, but put by people close to the Qatar government at as much as $3bn....©EPATo some extent, the fact that Qatar is so exposed reflects the reluctance of western governments to intervene in Syria. ...
Most of Doha’s neighbours in the Gulf are hostile to the Islamist trend in the region, but this is of little consequence to a state that takes pleasure in being contrarian. Nor are the al-Thanis embarrassed by the contradictions of an autocracy cheerleading for revolution. “The Qataris say if there’s a tsunami coming your way you ride it, not let it hit you,” says a western diplomat describing Qatar’s attitude towards Islamists.... the military stalemate of the Syrian uprising, has also revealed the recklessness and political impotence that ultimately undermine Qatar’s objectives....“The Qataris are overextended – their system runs on a few people at the top, and there isn’t much in terms of a bureaucracy,” comments another diplomat.... the disapproval levelled at Qatar is pervasive. A senior rebel commander who has dealt with the Qataris suggests that Doha should look long and hard at why its role has also sparked so much animosity. “After two years it is time for everyone involved in Syria to review their actions and engage in self-correction,” he says....
their efforts to shape a fragmented rebel army into a more coherent form by helping to unify the brigades under one command have contributed to its incoherence.One person who influenced the emir’s thinking at the time is Azmi Bishara, a prominent former Arab Israeli MP, exiled in Qatar...
An adviser to the emir and the crown prince, Bishara has become something of a court intellectual in Doha. He is said to have been involved in the formation of the Syrian National Coalition, now the main opposition umbrella group, and to have been used to “test” opposition figures...
Doha’s leaders were particularly emboldened by the revolt in Libya, where Qatar had played the lead Arab role in the Nato-led intervention...they expected western partners would eventually step in on the side of the opposition... Assad’s removal, after all, served the strategic purpose of weakening Iran, his closest regional ally. So far at least, this gamble has proved a miscalculation. ..
Supporting the armed rebellion was the inevitable next stage of Qatar’s deepening involvement in Syria, buying arms in Libya and in eastern European states, and flying them to Turkey, where intelligence services helped deliver them across the border. At first, say people with direct knowledge of the arms shipments, Qatar worked through Turkish intelligence to identify recipients, and then, as Saudi Arabia joined the covert military effort, through Lebanese mediators (Here) ...
Qatar is, as its detractors say, seeking to build up a proxy force in Syria to implement its regional agenda, it is doing so in an environment which is not conducive to either loyalty or cohesion... For the Saudis, the handful of secular rebel factions, plus the Salafi groups that espouse a stricter Wahabi Islam practised in Saudi Arabia, are vastly preferable to the Brotherhood, a more organised political group and therefore a greater political threat... the erratic and limited nature of weapons shipments means that even recipients of Qatari support are not always aware of Doha’s role. ...
But the behaviour has bred resentment. “Qatar and Saudi Arabia … are playing out their rivalries here, they are dividing people,” says Abdul Jabbar Akaidi, the head of the Aleppo revolutionary military council. Speaking from one of his bases on the Syrian side of the border with Turkey, he adds: “People will remember those who gave without having an agenda. The Syrians are clever, they know when there is an agenda.”
By late 2012 a new factor was emerging in Syria, one that had the potential to complicate Qatar’s relationship with the west. The extremist group Jabhat al-Nusrah was gaining ground, playing a prominent role in dislodging the regime from military facilities in northern Syria. In December, the US felt sufficiently alarmed to add Nusrah to its global terrorist list.
Concerned that Qatar’s level of tolerance for radical Islamists was higher than theirs, western governments also wanted safeguards in place to ensure that weapons did not end up in the hands of jihadi groups like Nusrah. The problem, says one former senior US official, was that “the Qataris felt it didn’t matter who you give to, what’s important is to bring down Bashar.”According to him, the objective in Washington became “to keep the Qataris from doing whatever they want”. So the US instituted a “consultative process”. Two “operations” rooms that oversee weapons deliveries were set up, one in Turkey, the other, more recently, in Jordan....Yet allegations that the Qataris have – directly or indirectly – helped Jabhat al-Nusrah have not gone away...
Beneath the quips, however, are signs that Qatar’s influence over military supplies to the rebellion may be waning, ..."

Tunisia sends request to Damascus to reopen its embassy

2013-05-18T10:25:00.000-04:00

'"Tunisia wants to reopen its embassy in Syria which has been closed for more than two years and has sent a request in this vein to the government in Damascus. Tunis is yet to receive a reply from Syria’s foreign ministry and a diplomatic source said that the letter has been sent to the foreign ministry since “last week.”Reports claim that the reopening of the embassy could be delayed. Tunisia quickly closed its embassy when the uprising against the Assad regime began in 2011. It will become the first country to reopen its diplomatic office in Syria if its request receives a positive response from the foreign ministry. .."

"Qatar’s emir, wants to be the Arab world’s Jihadist Nasser”

2013-05-17T10:59:00.001-04:00

"The gas-rich state of Qatar has spent as much as $3bn over the past two years supporting the rebellion in Syria, far exceeding any other government, but is now being nudged aside by Saudi Arabia as the prime source of arms to rebels...,According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, which tracks arms transfers, Qatar has sent the most weapons deliveries to Syria, with more than 70 military cargo flights into neighbouring Turkey between April 2012 and March this year.For Qatar, owner of the world’s third-largest gas reserves, its intervention in Syria is part of an aggressive quest for global recognition and is merely the latest chapter in its attempt to establish itself as a major player in the region, following its backing of Libya’s rebels who overthrew Muammer Gaddafi in 2011.
But though its approach is driven more by pragmatism and opportunism, than ideology, Qatar has become entangled in the polarised politics of the region, setting off scathing criticism. “You can’t buy a revolution,” says an opposition businessman.
Qatar’s support for Islamist groups in the Arab world, which puts it at odds with its peers in the Gulf states, has fuelled rivalry with Saudi Arabia. Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani, Qatar’s ruling emir, “wants to be the Arab world’s Islamist (Gamal) Abdelnasser”, said an Arab politician, referring to Egypt’s fiery late president and devoted pan-Arab leader.
Qatar’s intervention is coming under mounting scrutiny. Regional rivals contend it is using its financial firepower simply to buy future influence and that it has ended up splintering Syria’s opposition. Against this backdrop Saudi Arabia, which until now has been a more deliberate backer of Syria’s rebels, has stepped up its involvement....
The relegation of Qatar to second place in providing weapons follows concern in the West and among other Arab states that weapons it supplies could fall into the hands of an al-Qaeda-linked group, Jabhat al-Nusrah.Diplomats also say the Qataris have had trouble securing a steady supply of arms, something the Saudis have been able to do via their more developed networks.
A supply route across Jordan’s border to southern Syria has opened up in recent months. The Jordanian government, which is terrified of jihadis getting the upper hand in its neighbour, has been reluctantly allowing Saudi deliveries.

The west’s reluctance to intervene more forcefully in Syria has all but left Bashar al-Assad’s opponents reliant for support on Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Turkey though since late last year, the United Arab Emirates and Jordan have joined the rebels’ backers as junior partners..."

An Egypt in confusion still "reassures the US & Israel"

2013-05-16T13:00:00.001-04:00

MEPGS; Excerpts;

  “...   While some experts somewhat smugly call the Syrian civil war, “Iran’s Vietnam”, more are concerned with the already dramatic effects on neighboring countries. “It has accelerated Iraq’s move toward Iran and in the process relit the civil war there,” notes one veteran US analyst. There are competing views as to whether Lebanon or Jordan is more endangered by the “spillover.” Both have long had a precarious political balance in their political make-up. But with Hezbollah throwing much of its weight onto the side of the Syrian government, some believe it is only a matter of time before the balance is overturned.
Jordan is now bearing an economically unacceptable number of refugees, many poor and unskilled, causing resentment among the working classes in that country long split between the “traditional “East Bankers and the relative newcomers – the Palestinians – who, by all accounts constitute a majority of the population. King Abduallah gets mixed reviews for handling the situation. But the consensus is that he lacks the touch of his late father, King Hussein.
            Even amongst more secure neighbors, such as Israel and Turkey, the shock is felt daily. Turkey’s President Erdogan, has long pressed for the ouster of Bashar Assad...  while Erdogan’s rhetoric towards Assad has been harsh, given the ethnic (read: Kurds) as well as public opinion constraints, he is loathe to act unilaterally. While Israel has neither the ethnic nor public opinion constraints, which has allowed them to strike at will militarily [Most recently at an arms depot purportedly containing long range missiles destined for Hezbollah], senior Israeli officials are still wary of getting too close to the chaos that characterize the uproar in the Middle East in general and the chaos that is Syria specifically. As one well-placed Israeli put it, “No one here knows how to deal with the Arab Spring. It’s best we hide until it’s over.”..., ..., ...,
            Egypt, with the region’s largest population and putative leader of the Arab world, run by an increasingly authoritarian Moslem Brotherhood, wealthy Gulf countries (notably Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates) are getting jittery. Like the Administration, they see the “Brothers” stocking key posts with party faithful, unqualified for their roles. A case in point, notes one long time observer, “The technocrats necessary to negotiate with bodies like the IMF have long since fled the country.” Veteran US experts believe that the Moslem Brotherhood, after so many decades in the political wilderness, is determined, above all else, not to lose power. Still, Administration officials and even the Israelis have been reassured by Cairo’s adherence to, what, after all is the cornerstone of US Middle East Policy – The Israeli-Egyptian Peace Treaty.
            The moribund Israeli-Palestinian peace process, however, is a different story. Secretary of State Kerry is attempting to breathe new life into it. So far, he has had numerous meetings with key Israeli and Arab leaders [Often one-on-one, to the chagrin of veteran State Department officials]. While there is some expectation that talks could begin again in the not-too-distant future, few believe, considering the lack of leadership on the ground and the lack of interest in the White House, that Kerry will get very far with his efforts.
            But many believe that a vigorous Administration role in Arab-Israeli peacemaking is crucial to boost the sagging image of the US throughout the region. While President Obama did himself a world of good by his visit to Israel [Certainly among the Israelis, some of whom sheepishly admit that their previous coolness towards him may have been racially motivated], he still faces the challenge of a nuclear armed Iran...  As one key State Department official put it this week, “First we have to wait out the Iranian election results next month; followed by the inauguration of the new President and then in September we have our annual “UNGA” (United Nations General Assembly] bash.”
But US officials admit that it is Iran that will set the time table for action – if there is to be any. “So far, they have been very clever,” says one Administration official. “They have been careful not to do anything that would allow for a mad dash towards producing a weapon. They take one step back for every two steps forward.”

Senior US Official: "Qatar's Emir just lied to our face!"

2013-05-16T12:49:00.000-04:00

MEPGS Excerpts;

"... Even beyond Syria’s immediate neighbors, there is confusion, or at least splits among the various Arab leaders. The tiny but quite wealthy and active Qatar, which, as the expression goes, has been “punching above its weight,” is a case in point. Its leadership (which consists of three men, the Emir, his son and the Foreign Minister) has consistently backed Islamist forces with money and war material in their rebellion against the established order, whether in Libya or now, Syria. Some say, this has chagrined the Saudis [A practice, their hard drinking, yet fellow Wahabbis are prone to do]. Others argue the usually reticent [and now somewhat geriatric]Saudi leadership has found it convenient to allow Qatar to take the lead. Still, few in Washington are pleased with Qatar’s policies across the board. Recent meetings with the Emir did not go well. The US wanted a pledge that Qatar would no longer support “extremist” Islamists fighting in Syria. “He said they wouldn’t,” noted a well-placed US official, who then added “He just lied to our faces.” Even Qatar policies towards friends are causing angst in Washington. For example, its “no-strings attached” assistance to Egypt, undermines the Administration’s goal of getting Cairo to adopt an International Monetary Fund [“IMF”] plan for getting its fiscal house in order [US officials say, that while Qatar has provided Cairo with grants totaling more than $6 billion, the terms of their most recent example of largesse were not so generous. What Cairo thought was a interest free $3 billion loan turned out to have an interest rate of 5% , with the principal due within 18 months]..."

'Criminal State's settlers' storm al Aqsa

2013-05-16T11:33:00.001-04:00

Leverett: 'The US can either accept that toppling Assad to hurt Iran has failed or continue supporting the 'opposition' with years of violence in sight'

2013-05-16T11:27:00.000-04:00

"... As to diplomatic prospects with regard to Syria, Flynt notes,

“Russia, Iran, China (the players that are usually associated, in common parlance, as in some ways being supportive of the Syrian government): if you look at their position, and even the position of the Syrian government, they have been open to a political process—to having a dialogue with the opposition aimed at some sort of political settlement, which would produce a different kind of political order in Syria. But it’s the opposition elements, backed by the United States, which have insisted not just on preconditions but in effect on ‘pre-results’ from a meeting, where they have to have, up front, some commitment that Assad is going to step down before this process even gets going. That’s not a serious diplomatic position.

If you want to stop violence in Syria, you have to get all parties to the table, you can’t have these kinds of absurd preconditions, and you have to get down to the business of diplomacy. I think that Russia, frankly, China, and Iran have been trying to do that, trying harder to get that kind of process off the ground, than the United States has been. Because for the United States to do this means it’s acknowledging that it can’t just dictate outcomes in this part of the world. It actually has to accommodate other parties’ interests; it has to accommodate on-the-ground reality.”

Flynt goes on to put Russian and Chinese vetoes of three U.S.-backed UN Security Council resolutions on Syria in a very different perspective from that typically deployed in mainstream Western discourse:

“The Russian and Chinese vetoes at the UN come against the backdrop of both Russia and China having let the Libya resolution go through in March 2011—the Libya resolution that authorized the use of force to protect civilian populations on humanitarian grounds, but which the United States and others then turned into, basically, a regime change campaign, with NATO aircraft flying missions where they’re out to kill Qaddhafi. From a Russian perspective, from a Chinese perspective—I think from a decent international legal perspective—that is, to say the least, an extremely problematic scenario. And Russia and China were not about to let this scenario repeat itself in Syria.”

Turning to Syrian oppositionists, Flynt suggests that it is unlikely they represent even a narrow majority of Syrians:

“What about the 40-50 percent of Syrian society that continues to support Assad? I think Assad retains the support of about half of Syrian society. What about them?” He also challenges some of the dominant images of Syrian oppositionists in the West—and defines that real choice confronting American policymakers with regard to Syria:
“When you look at the situation in Syria, it’s obvious that many innocent people have been killed, and that is a profound tragedy. But I think that the narrative in the West—that this was basically a peaceful protest by Syrians that was responded to brutally, and these people took all of this violence until a year later, eighteen months later, they had to start responding violently—I don’t think that’s really the way things played out…[O]utside powers—the Saudis, others—were pouring money and weapons into Syria from a very early point.
The agenda was not to bring democracy to Syrians. I don’t think the Saudis care about that; frankly, I don’t think the United States cares all that much about that. The agenda was to topple Assad as a way of hurting Iran’s regional position. 70,000 dead Syrians later, this project has not worked…Now countries like the United States face a choice. They can either accept that this project of toppling Assad to hurt Iran has failed, and they can get serious about a diplomatic process that might produce a political settlement and end violence. Or if they keep doing this, if they keep supporting the opposition, we’re going to be looking at literally years of continued violence, and who knows how many more tens of thousands of dead Syrians.
That is the choice…[For] as long as opposition groups have outside supporters like the Saudis, like the United States, who are in a sense egging them on, they have absolutely no incentive to face political reality and enter some kind of negotiating process…They don’t have an interest in doing that because there are outsiders who will help them keep the violence rolling along indefinitely.”

Finally, Flynt challenges the fundamental premises of those criticizing the United States for not having “done more” in Syria already:

“As far as the United States doing what ‘was necessary’ early on, there is this small matter of sovereignty, there’s this small matter of international law that says you only get to use force when the Security Council authorizes it or under a fairly narrow interpretation of self-defense in the UN Charter. The United States has no right—it may have a hegemonic prerogative (or think it does), but it has no right—to impose no-fly zones over sovereign states to get rid of a leader that it doesn’t like…
[F]ind one case in which the United States applied military force, ostensibly for the protection of civilian populations, in which part of its agenda was not also regime change in that country. If you look at the Balkans, if you look at Iraq, if you look at what we did in Libya, if you look at what we say we want to do in Syria—in every one of those cases, the argument for humanitarian intervention is inextricably bound up with the argument for coercive regime change. Frankly, I think Russia and China are eminently justified in saying that they’re not going to enable that.”

A 'Criminal-State' for eternity!

2013-05-16T11:16:00.002-04:00

... and that will not prevent Kerry to say that Israel is America's friend, ally, ... a beacon of human rights, freedom, democracy ...

"... Israel plans to declare legal four unauthorized West Bank settler outposts, a court document showed on Thursday, days before U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry returns to the region to try to restart peace talks. ...."

A 'Criminal-State' for the History books!

2013-05-16T11:13:00.001-04:00

"...In a clear warning to Syria, a senior Israeli official signaled on Wednesday that Israel was considering additional military strikes to prevent that from happening and that Assad, would face crippling consequences if he retaliated. ..."

'Confidence building measures!'

2013-05-16T11:09:00.001-04:00

"...The Obama administration said Wednesday that it would add more sanctions on Iran in an effort to dissuade Tehran from continuing its nuclear program, but stopped short of backing tough new penalties that lawmakers are considering...
Washington and its allies have already imposed sanctions on Iran's nuclear and missile programs, its oil and gas industry, its insurance, banking and financial sectors and other parts of the economy...."

Security forces kidnapped in Egypt's Sinai

2013-05-16T11:05:00.001-04:00

"... According to the sources, three policemen and four army officers who were riding in taxis travelling from Arish to Rafah cities, both in North Sinai, were stopped by armed men and kidnapped on Wednesday...."

"A Strong Iran Is Good for America"

2013-05-16T11:02:00.001-04:00

"...Don't defeat Iran. Shi'ism is not America's enemy. It is not in the long-term interest of the United States to side with the Sunni Arab states against Iran or vice versa. Doing so produces an imbalance of power in the region as we learned with the collapse of the Iraqi state in the aftermath of the American invasion of 2003. Iran was then able to establish a contiguous sphere of influence stretching from western Afghanistan to the Mediterranean -- something that was only averted by the Arab Spring reaching Syria.
The two-year-old Syrian crisis has now come to a point where Iran is on the defensive, as its positions in Lebanon and Iraq come under threat. But Washington's talks with Moscow in an effort to reach a negotiated settlement on the Syria crisis may indicate that the United States is not interested in allowing the pendulum to swing in the other direction this time around.
Remember that the United States had a bad, decadeslong experience with Sunni domination of the Middle East. It was Sunni dominance, in which the Shias were not sufficiently feared, that helped lead to a phalanx of Arab dictators -- in Egypt, Saudi Arabia and elsewhere -- who had little incentive to quell anti-Americanism in their midst. Such Leaders as Hosni Mubarak in Egypt and King Fahd in Saudi Arabia fostered a rotten and calcified political climate that was relatively empty of reform, while quietly tolerant of extremism, which resulted in the leader of the 9/11 terrorist cell being Egyptian and 15 of his 18 cohorts being Saudis. But at least the likes of Fahd and Mubarak ran strong states that cooperated with Western intelligence agencies: Perhaps not so the Sunni Islamists who might yet gain even more influence and power in Egypt and Syria. The last thing the West should want is a situation in Syria in which radical Sunni Islamist forces are able to project power in the region, especially across the country's eastern border into Iraq. ..."

"Please tell the world the truth! We don't want the fighters here, we want the army to kill them!"

2013-05-15T20:10:00.001-04:00

"We knew what was coming and so wore flak jackets and helmets. The demonstrators knew what was coming, had no protection, and still walked straight into the line of fire.
The demonstrators were predominantly Syrian Palestinians, many from the Yarmouk district of Damascus who had fled when it was taken over by opposition forces eight months ago.
Some screamed at us: "Please tell the world the truth! We don't want the fighters here, we want the army to kill them!"
A few carried the portrait of President Assad, others the Syrian or Palestinian flag.
One woman called the Free Syrian Army (FSA) "dogs" and said the men in Yarmouk were not Syrians but from Chechnya and Afghanistan. We could not verify this.
The armed men in Yarmouk had warned the demonstrators not to approach saying they would open fire.
The fact that a few Syrian army soldiers were accompanying the demonstrators made that a certainty.
About 1,000 people were in the demonstration. A few religious leaders and women were in the front rows as they approached where the opposition forces had a clear field of fire.
The shooting began almost immediately. A man went down, followed by others. The army officer who had insisted on escorting us was hit by shrapnel.
The demonstrators broke ranks and fled back across no man's land, some of the women crying with fear.
As they passed us a man stopped and shouted that he was sure the fighters were not Syrians but men paid to come to Damascus and kill people. Another man shouted that they were "animals".
More soldiers arrived taking up positions facing the opposition forces. Heavy machine gun fire rumbled around the area mixing with the crack of sniper's bullets and the rattle of semi-automatic weapons.
There were occasional explosions. The firefight went on for more than an hour.
The army later claimed to have killed 10 fighters and said three soldiers were injured along with at least five civilians.
I've been in areas held by Syrian FSA fighters where there was clearly support for the opposition forces, but almost two years ago I first came across areas where the FSA was feared by the population and the Syrian Army viewed as liberators.
It's impossible to gauge the numbers of people who fall into the two camps. All we could do was report what we saw on this day, in this place."

Geneva II: "Which opposition?"

2013-05-15T12:10:00.000-04:00

"...True, US-Russian rapprochement is still in its infancy and may collapse at the first fork in the road, but international attitudes suggest we may be witnessing an unprecedented breakthrough.
No sooner had Kerry boarded his plane out of Russia did statements welcoming the outcome of his visit start to pour in from NATO countries. True, US-Russian rapprochement is still in its infancy and may collapse at the first fork in the road, but international attitudes suggest we may be witnessing an unprecedented breakthrough.
But Russia Today quoted a Russian official as saying that an international conference on Syria was unlikely to be held by the end of May. The source also said that there were “many differences [over] who can take part in this format, who is legitimate and who is not legitimate.”
The source went on to say, “It's obvious that this can't be done without representatives of the opposition, but the question is, which opposition? We believe that there is no clearly defined body with which negotiations could be held so that commitments would then be carried out.”
The Syrian ‘Oppositions’
One thing the Russian official’s statement does expose is the condition of the Syrian ‘oppositions’ today. Indeed, everyone in the ranks of the opposition has adopted the new international accord as a central item on their agendas without consulting anyone else.
Every element in the opposition is trying to gather the largest possible number of dissident parties and figures to put together a broad bloc that can snatch a seat. On Sunday, the Syrian National Coalition (SNC) completed two days of deliberations to this very end prior to the meeting of its general assembly scheduled for May 23 in Istanbul.
Three key issues occupy the SNC agenda: preparing to elect a successor to Moaz al-Khatib, along with a new leadership council; the interim government which Ghassan Hitto failed to form; and expanding the SNC to bring in new members. Participation in the proposed Geneva II was also discussed as an urgent item, but the attendees agreed to discuss it further at the next meeting.
A member of the SNC political council told Al-Akhbar that efforts to expand revolved around admitting eight new members, known as Michel Kilo’s bloc. If that happens, the eight, who had suspended their membership, would join the nine other figures aligned with Kilo that had decided to remain in the SNC.
The source understands the impact this would have, and said this would restore balance in the SNC, which is now dominated by Qatar’s allies through the Muslim Brotherhood and Mustafa al-Sabbagh’s wing.
The presidency of the SNC itself would also be affected. According to the same Syrian opposition leader, Burhan Ghalioun, former president of the SNC’s forerunner the Syrian National Council, has a good chance to be elected to the post as he enjoys unanimous support from various segments of the SNC.
At the same time, the source said, new names are being discussed to replace Hitto (who was appointed on 18 March 2013). Always according to the source, there was no consensus when Hitto was voted in.
The time allocated for Hitto to form an interim government has now expired, the SNC member maintained, adding that Ahmad Tohme, who served as secretary of the National Council in the Damascus Declaration back in 2005, is being touted as a possible candidate.
Speaking to Al-Akhbar, Khaled Nasser, another member of the SNC political council, said that his group was in the process of rearranging their “cards,” adding that Geneva II has put the issue of the interim government on the backburner for now.
One SNC member who recently met with the US ambassador in Syria Robert Ford said that the US diplomat told the Syrian opposition that Washington does not favor direct military intervention in Syria. Ford, he added, said that the US wants to give peace a chance instead, something that is now on the table for those who will meet at the planned conference....."

Saudis overtaking Qatar in sponsoring Syrian rebels

2013-05-14T15:23:00.001-04:00

"... But last week, surprisingly, the Saudi foreign minister, Saud Al Faisal, met Syrian Brotherhood deputy leader Mahmoud Farouq Tayfour, in one-to-one talks.
The Brotherhood had previously been confident in its alliance with Qatar and Turkey, and saw no need to offer concessions to engage other countries, including Saudi Arabia. So this meeting, which came after an "eager appeal" from the Brotherhood, suggests a shift in regional dynamics.
Two separate sources close to the opposition say Mr Tayfour assured the Saudi minister that "Syria's Brotherhood will definitely not be like Egypt's Brotherhood".
He also "harshly" criticised Qatar's role, even though Qatar had helped revive the Brotherhood in Syria after the Baathists massacred it out of existence in 1982.
.Still, this meeting does not mean there has been a breakthrough in the kingdom's relationship with the Brotherhood, which in 2004 then-Crown Prince Nayef bin Abdulaziz (who died last June) called the "source of all problems"....
The meeting was meant to build channels of communication with the coalition as Riyadh apparently took over sponsorship of the opposition from Doha. Last week Al Arab newspaper, citing opposition sources, said Doha had told the coalition's secretary general, Mustafa Al Sabbagh, that "the Syrian dossier is now in the hands of Saudi Arabia"
Saudi officials made it clear that no support will be provided unless the coalition becomes more inclusive ...Ghassan Hitto, selected in March to head an interim government, will probably be replaced... His replacement will signal the consummation of that supposed Saudi takeover....."

Romancing cruelty & cannibalism: 'It's all Hezbollah's fault!'

2013-05-14T15:12:00.001-04:00

"... Abu Sakkar and his fellow fighters hail from the Baba Amr district of Homs, which came under one of the most brutal and intensive sieges mounted by the Syrian army ... Journalists who met Abu Sakkar have described his militancy and fondness for guns.
Last October, Abu Sakkar broke off from the mainstream Farouk brigade, and formed his own, more militant "independent" Omar al-Farouk brigade. Since then, he has placed himself at the forefront of an increasingly sectarian battle for control of the town of Qusayr, subjected to a massive Syrian government offensive reportedly backed by Hezbollah....
Abu Sakkar, the commander who apparently mutilated the dead soldier, has been an active participant in the sectarian violence and its regional spillover. In retaliation for the entry of Hezbollah fighters into the battle of Qusayr, ...(ahaaaa. Has it not been for Hezbollah, Abou Sakkar would've remained a gentle vegetarian!)...
Abu Sakkar is just one man, and there are many other armed fighters in Syria who reject such sectarian actions and would be horrified by the mutilation and desecration of a corpse -- let alone an act of cannibalism. But he is a commander in a decisive battle in Syria -- hardly a marginal figure..."

“Well-grounded reasons” to be corrupt!

2013-05-14T12:16:00.001-04:00

To As'ad: " I'm sure you're going to appreciate this:
Bulgarian police seize 350,000 ’fake’ ballots.
http://www.aljazeera.com/video/europe/2013/05/2013511165252491385.html
“Private BGNES news agency named the party as Borisov’s GERB, whose deputy leader Tsvetanov headed the interior ministry until GERB’s ousting from power in end-February.
The prosecution did not comment on this information.
The allegations come at an awkward time for Tsvetanov, already embroiled in late April in a scandal about alleged illegal wiretapping of the party’s opponents and businesspeople.”
You might remember that this Tsvetan Tsvetanov is the Interior minister that pretended to have “well-grounded reasons” to implicate Hezbollah in an attack against Israeli tourists:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/feb/05/bulgaria-hezbollah-bus-bomb-attack
"We have well-grounded reasons to suggest that the two were members of the militant wing of Hezbollah," said Tsvetan Tsvetanov, Bulgaria's interior minister
So, with 2 major political scandals on the Tsvetanov, I would bet that the accusation against Hezbollah is now dead.
You can quote me."..."

WaPo: 'The Syrian Army beginning to turn the tide'

2013-05-14T11:57:00.000-04:00

'... But analysts say there is little doubt that the pendulum is now swinging in favor of Assad, potentially putting him in a strong position to set terms if the negotiations with the opposition that the Obama administration and Russia last week agreed to sponsor eventually take place.
“If things continue as they are, the government will certainly be the party that has the major advantage” in any talks, said Charles Lister of the London-based IHS Jane’s Terrorism and Insurgency Center. “If we press pause on where we are today, it is clear the insurgency does not pose an existential threat to the regime.”..., ...
Perhaps most significantly, the government has recalibrated its approach to the war raging nationwide. Instead of stretching its forces thin by trying to fight on multiple fronts across the country, the regime is focusing on what it calls a few key “nodes” considered essential to sustaining its hold on power, according to Syrians and Lebanese familiar with the strategy.
They include the Damascus suburbs, along with an arc of territory stretching from the coastal ports of Latakia and Tartus in the northwest to the capital — the urban backbone of the country, embracing its most important supply routes.
The new focus does not signal an intention to let go of the vast areas of the north and east that have fallen almost entirely under rebel control, and where the rebels are still making progress against scattered outposts of regime resistance, Zahran stressed. Rather, he said, the goal is first to secure the center, and then strike out to win back the rest of the country, province by province.... "