Rosetta is an ESA mission on its way to orbit and deploy a lander on a comet in 2014. The spacecraft took images of another asteroid – 2867 Šteins – in 2008.

“Avatar” attendance actually lies somewhere between this very conservative estimate and Box Office Mojo’s estimate, meaning it is clearly a top-100 movie of all-time domestically. It is difficult to estimate where “Avatar” places in terms of attendance world-wide because that marketplace has changed significantly over the decades. However, “Avatar” has accomplished something few movies do anymore: it is a runaway success in a variety of different cultures and it is well-ranked globally among the biggest movies of all time. No movie will likely surpass the nearly half billion people who have seen “Gone with the Wind” in the theater over the decades (“Star Wars” is the only movie that has ever come close), yet in a world of more entertainment options than in any other time in history, any movie that brings so many millions of people out to the theater during a first run has accomplished an increasingly rare feat.

Only two movies now sit around the $2.0 billion grossing mark: “Avatar” and “Titanic”, both written and directed by James Cameron. It took 12 years for another movie to pass “Titanic” and the question now is whether or not this will happen again any time soon? That the bar has been set so high, and twice, suggests that many filmmakers will be pulling out all the stops now.  ”Avatar” is currently unrivaled in special effects and photorealistic CGI. Cameron has also succeeded in demonstrating a particular approach to filmmaking that is expected to become wildly popular with filmmakers in coming years. The placement of actors, virtual characters, props, and virtual props within sets and virtual sets was available to Cameron from the very beginning of filming. While directing, he looked through a customized camera that served as a “window” into a blended reality. This allowed him to film as if he was really standing – or flying – there on Pandora. The actors benefited from this technology by being able to see what they were acting against prior to each take. This is a vast improvement over previous green-screen technology where it was difficult for actors to get a sense of their setting and interactions with virtual characters. In post-production (which actually coincided with production) all of this came together into a seamless whole, with an unprecedented level of gloss and realism driven by the experience of Weta Digital and other special effects companies along with  access to computing power that continues to grow exponentially over time.

“Avatar” has not just set a new bar for photorealistic blended reality in movies; it has set a new base. Upcoming genre films will be compared to “Avatar” as audiences begin to expect movies at least as seamless and full of wonder. “John Carter of Mars”, “Spider-Man 4“, and the new “Flash Gordon” movie are all rumored to use the same technology that Cameron and his team developed.  TV and web productions will likely follow as the price of this technology comes down further.

“Avatar” has also succeeded in making 3-D a viable marketing strategy. Movie studios are racing to update existing genre productions to 3-D while announcing new movies to be produced in 3-D from the start. They are also in the process of reformatting older movies to 3-D for rerelease. Manufacturers of 3-D televisions hope “Avatar” will increase consumer demand for these sets later this year. This coming holiday will likely indicate whether or not consumers are going to take the bait in order to own “Avatar” in 3-D and view it in this format at home.

Beyond these filmmaking and marketing accomplishements, the success of “Avatar” and other recent genre entertainment may have also widened the discourse for ideas like transhumanism, space travel, astrobiology, exoplanetary science, advanced consumer electronics, mind uploading, and other emerging technologies. Transhumanist commentators in particular may benefit from genre fiction that opens audience minds to new ideas that were until recently dismissed as fringe. When asked about whether or not genre fiction has had an impact on his “Sentient Developments“ blog, transhumanist commentator, futurist, and author George Dvorsky responded:

“Absolutely. Other than life extension topics, genre entertainment (especially science fiction) is like porn for blogs. I make an effort to review popular films as much as possible, but they have to be contextually consistent with my blog. And lately that’s not been too difficult; as you noted, films like Avatar and Caprica have made it easy. Even superhero stories (like Watchmen and X-Men) offer food for thought.”

Dvorsky highlighted the virtual reality and uploading depicted in “Avatar” and how the movie helps to introduce these ideas to the public. However, he notes that the introduction of new ideas does not necessarily lead to public acceptance.  While Frontier Channel has benefited from increased traffic to articles related to genre fiction, there is little evidence to suggest that readers are sticking around to learn more about transhumanism and emerging technologies.

Michael Anissimov writes the “Accelerating Future” blog,  is a transhumanist commentator, and actively participates in the effort of Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence to describe and develop so-called “Friendly AI”. He suggests that movies like “Avatar” might open people’s mind a little bit more to unfamiliar concepts, but ultimately:

“[...] the best way to bring people into transhumanism is using news of real scientific advancements and analysis of sci-tech progress. [...] it ["Avatar"] is more symptomatic of pro-transhumanist sentiment rather than causative of it.”

Roko Mijic, who writes the “Transhuman Goodness” blog and is also a proponent of “Friendly AI” research, seems to agree and points out how science fiction might actually be less interesting now:

“Personally, I find that the scenarios I consider in my “Day-to-Day” activities volunteering for the Singularity Institute are a lot more extreme than science fiction. Somehow having to consider ultra-extreme future scenarios as “work” has made me both less excited by and less interested in science fiction[...]“

The problem with “Avatar” is that while the technical details of the filmmaking and the astonishing photorealistic CGI are indeed evidence for the rapid progress of technology in the industry, many of the ideas explored in the movie are done so in a way that seems quaint when compared to real scientific breakthroughs and technological progress today. While “Avatar” may in a limited way help introduce people to new ideas that are already popular in transhumanist circles, it is by no means a “transhumanist” film. Mijic suggests that:

“[...] there is a fairly strong cultural trend for entertainment to pick up, amplify and distort good futurism, and it has both good and bad effects. Good in the sense that even a distorted message can be better than no message at all. Bad in the sense that people tend to enter a “fairytale” mode of thinking activated by the future-flavored entertainment when you try to present serious futurism to them.”

What “Avatar” has accomplished is to provide entertainment that seems to cut across cultures, while also promoting 3-D in general and a new approach to filmmaking that could very well be quite popular going forward. While the movie does not explore transhumanism and emerging technologies in any deep way, it may just have accomplished a kind of “priming” of the minds of its audience members to be a little bit more aware of them. With new audiences eager for the out-of-this-world vistas on display in movies like “Avatar”, there is no better time to introduce them to current accomplishments in science and technology that are leading to a future far more fantastic than fiction.

Electronic Ink and Ebook Readers

Amazon’s Kindle made E Ink display technology popular. This year several consumer electronics companies and publishers previewed their own take on the technology. Plenty of ereaders retain the cluttered button-strewn interface of the Kindle. Others look more like Sony’s Reader, with fewer buttons and a touchscreen that allows swiping through pages. In an attempt to save the newspaper and magazine industries, ereaders are also getting bigger. The Skiff Reader measures 11.5 inches diagonal and will retain much of the complex layout of these media. Plastic Logic will market the Que for business use, where PDFs and other documents can be stored and displayed on a large electronic ink display. The Que is also the first device that places the electronic ink technology on plastic, rather than on glass. This should make the device more resistant to accidental damage and it marks the beginning of an era in flexible and bendable electronics.

All electronic ink ereaders are readable in direct sunlight due to the reflective nature of the electronic ink and high pixels-per-inch values. They can run on a single charge for days and the best can access cellular networks to make purchasing a new ebook easy. However, electronic ink is limited to a few shades of gray between black and white, and the refresh rate is very slow. These devices are also limited in what they can display. To address some of these issues, ereaders like Barnes & Noble’s Nook add a second display. This small color LCD panel is placed below the electronic ink display. The second display allows for a more vibrant and faster interface for ebook browsing, though the ebook text itself remains confined to the top display. Spring Design’s Alex reader adds the Android operating system for web browsing and running apps on the 3.5″ LCD. Battery life depends on how the reader is used; relying more on the LCD will require a recharge after only several hours. New ereaders like the enTourage eDGe go so far as to pair an electronic ink screen by a hinge to a full-sized LCD. The LCD side features tablet-like capabilities. As expected, such devices are bulky and battery life is measured in hours.

The ultimate ereader, of course, is one that offers readability, full color, video, and multimedia with battery life measured in days. Tablets (sometimes referred to as “slate PCs” at CES 2010) can offer some of these features but to date remain too bulky and battery draining. A combination of the upgraded Tegra platform from Nvidia with the display made by Pixel Qi appears to fair much better. Pixel Qi provides a 10.5-inch screen that combines the best of LCD technology with the best of electronic ink, all in one display. The display switches between modes automatically or manually depending on how it is being used, resulting in unheard of battery life for such a device. By making use of existing LCD production processes, the new displays are expected to be affordable almost immediately.

Qualcomm took a different approach with Mirasol. Mirasol is a grid of microelectromechanical system (MEMS) devices that reflect red, green, and blue light. When a voltage is applied, the two plates in an individual MEMS device are pulled together to produce black. By manipulating the state of these MEMS devices, other colors can be created. This activity is fast enough to support video. The result is a full-color and high resolution display that uses less power than electronic ink. There is only one mode and all use cases between reading and watching movies are supported. In footage filmed by the Engadget technology blog of a tablet using Mirasol at CES, the display had a yellow tint and was somewhat less vibrant than LCD. However, the technology at this early stage already offers a compelling number of capabilities future consumer electronics are expected to include.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Confined to ereaders, electronic ink may turn out to be a short-lived technology as future tablets with first generation technologies likes those from Pixel Qi and Qualcomm combine a variety of features together into one device. This convergence of comfortable and portable reading, browsing, watching, gaming, communicating, and other activities is already a hallmark of smartphones and is expected to make its way into larger and more powerful devices. Based on what was shown at CES, by the end of 2010 tablets with cutting-edge display and interface technologies may have replaced dedicated ereaders completely.

3-D HDTVs

3-D arrived in a big way at CES 2010. Along with all the new 3-D compatible high definition televisions on display and set for release in the coming months, DirecTV announced they would soon have three dedicated 3-D channels and Sony, Discovery Communications, and IMAX announced a joint effort to create a new 3-D network. Meanwhile, studios are beginning to announce their first 3-D Blu-ray titles and the phenomenal success of “Avatar” suggests this activity will only accelerate. Coming at a time when consumers are more quickly replacing their standard definition televisions with high definition LCD and plasma televisions, 3-D might have arrived at exactly the right time.

Although audiences are obviously enamored with 3-D at the movie theater, some commentators look to gaming as the killer application for the format. In “Avatar”, the flora and fauna pop out of the movie screen, but the audience has no way of lingering or setting off to explore the world at their own pace and in their own direction. Games are not necessarily limited to the linear storytelling and director’s perspective of movies. Players can move to look behind 3-D objects, which is a much more immersive experience.

One limitation of current 3-D technology, whether it is in games or movies, is the need for consumers to wear special glasses. It is unclear how consumers will take to this requirement. Will they experience initial excitement before relegating the glasses to a drawer? Will they adapt and begin to demand all video content in 3-D? Depending on how long it takes for this to become clear, a variety of other technologies may begin to transform televisions in coming years. For example, glasses-free solutions were demonstrated at CES 2010 but are still too expensive for widespread adoption.

Another trends will be increasing resolution from the current top 1080p standard. Video in this format is generally 1920 by 1080 pixels. Some theaters are already displaying movies in 2K resolution, which is about four times the resolution of 1080p. Meanwhile, filmmakers are beginning to shoot their movies in 4K resolution. 8K resolution has been demonstrated in Japan. How soon these resolutions will make their way into consumer electronics is unclear, but we can expect another digital television transition at some point in the coming decade.

Perhaps more compelling in the long-term, holographic video may leapfrog over the limitations of 3-D. Holographic video builds three-dimensional objects in a real space, allowing the viewer to walk around and interact with the objects.

Click here to view the embedded video.

This technology would require new cameras and filmmaking techniques, or it could be emulated much more quickly by increasingly powerful computers. Imagine a movie shot in 2-D and then fed into powerful computers that can recreate the 3-D aspect of any object in the scene. The limited perspective of 3-D movies would be overcome overnight.

Finally, the direct input of data into a person’s nervous system may make all display technologies obsolete. These data might be represented in three-dimensional space almost immediately, as consumers begin making their way through blended virtual and real reality. Intel expects to begin offering brain-machine interface technology to consumers around 2020 and the Singularity University and X Prize organizations are planning a prize to spur further research into the technology. If this technology arrives as soon as that, 3-D televisions may not be around all that long.

Computers

The computer as we know it today is rapidly changing. Desktops and laptops are giving way to cheaper netbooks, consoles, and HDTV’s with wireless and web-enabled apps, while smartphones and upcoming tablet computers explore multimodal interfaces that will soon relegate keyboards and mice to the museum. At CES, a plethora of netbooks and tablets were on display, adding more capabilities with a new generation of power-miserly microprocessors. Touch and multitouch interfaces were evident, and gesture recognition is coming to the XBox 360 this holiday.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Haptics, voice, gesture, emotion, touch, and other interfaces are coming together to allow consumers to interact with data in new ways. In addition to potentially replacing ebook readers in the coming year, tablets could also make desktops and laptops obsolete. Before brain-machine interfaces become available, tablets will have already started blending the real and virtual. They will become “windows” into virtual realm where data is displayed in increasingly sophisticated ways. At CES, the iPhone became both the control for a real toy helicopter – the Parrot AR.Drone – and a window to a world where that toy shot down virtual enemies.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Consumer electronics companies must contend with accelerating progress in science and technology that sometimes brings change even before they can release their devices to consumers. This decade will bring a change in the very materials used by electronic components. Consumer electronics will soon be flexible, bendable, transparent, and impossibly thin, well below the quarter inch that seemed to be hot at this year’s CES. Just like the majority of companies releasing ereaders this year, or those tepidly dipping their toes into new tablets, companies that simply jump on the latest technology bandwagon will find their products failing in the marketplace. Companies that press forward and try to redefine entire classes of consumer electronics may stumble across the right convergence of technologies that resonate with consumers at exactly the right time.

For years online fan films, most notably those based on Star Trek, have been tolerated by rights holders but prohibited from making money. Whether by amateurs or professionals within the filmmaking and television, these efforts have resulted in content of variable quality. Star Trek: Hidden Frontier was a fan series set after the canon events of Star Trek: The Next Generation, Star Trek: Deep Space Nine, and Star Trek: Voyager, making extensive use of green screens to place amateur and professional actors within computer-generated scenery. Two sequel series were produced and crossovers between these and other Star Trek fan series occurred. The even more ambitious Star Trek: New Voyages – later renamed Phase 2 after Gene Roddenberry’s proposed 1970′s continuation of the original Star Trek series – brought amateurs together with professionals who had actually worked behind the scenes on some of the official Star Trek series. Sets were built and used, scripts were written by writers known for their canon work, and even some of the original series actors including Walter Koenig and George Takei guest-starred.

No matter how successful these fan series have become, they can only ever be labors-of-love; their production values are limited to the time, labor, and capital donated to them. They proceed as dictated by the schedule of participants who otherwise work day jobs. As a result, episodes are infrequent, merchandising is non-existent, and marketing depends on word-of-mouth and limited press coverage.

Web series based on original content do not face the same limitations, but until recently there have been few of them. Notable web series like Red vs. Blue offered high quality subscription downloads and DVDs for sale, while Xombie followed up its online debut with DVD releases, comics, and even a potential movie deal. Other web series like Ninjai: The Little Ninja and KarmaKula boasted outstanding production values but to date have been unable to transition to a business model that would ensure their continuation. This is not to say that every independent online filmmaker is seeking monetary returns from their efforts. Web series provide an opportunity to practice filmmaking, get exposure, and express creativity. Such web series tend to come and go quickly, often leaving behind only a tantalizing glimpse of what they could have been.

Dr. Horrible’s Sing-Along Blog may have changed all of this. Written by Joss Whedon, Zack Whedon, Jed Whedon, and Maurissa Tancharoen during the Writers Guild of America strike of 2007 and 2008, this independent production found unprecedented success on the web. The series was released online for free for a limited time followed by paid digital downloads on iTunes and advertising-supported streaming on Hulu.com. While the people involved were all more or less Hollywood insiders, the incredible success of “Dr. Horrible” irrevocably turned mainstream attention to the web as a media distribution platform.

Another success has been Sanctuary. This show began as a pay-per-download web series only to be picked up by Syfy as a regular cable television series. Meanwhile, The Guild web series, featuring Buffy, the Vampire Slayer, Dollhouse, and Dr. Horrible’s Sing-Along Blog alumnus Felicia Day, is now in its third season. The series enjoyed increased attention after a music video featuring its characters went viral:

Click here to view the embedded video.

The song single and video topped the charts on iTunes and Amazon. The series is also available for purchase on DVD.

A number of factors indicate that we are entering a golden age of independent content increasingly based on original or fully licensed material and distributed online:

• the advent of the affordable Red One camera and the falling cost of filmmaking
• YouTube and video distribution web services supporting 1080p high definition video
• maturing web distribution options for video
• diversifying business models
• the number of recent web series successes

Will this content compete with mainstream television and movies? This will become more clear during 2010 as the latest web series arrive and seek out new audiences. Below are some of the projects that have been announced or entered production. The success of any one of them could lead to even more activity using the web as a central distribution and marketing tool.

Frontier Guard production still - Polaris hull plating, more detailed model

In January the makers of Star Trek: Hidden Frontier plan to release the pilot episode of their first series based on original material: Frontier Guard. The series follows a human abducted in 1957 and discovered “frozen on a space Ark hundreds of years later” as he comes to grips with life in the 25th century. It is unclear if or how the filmmakers plan to monetize the series. Vignettes about the characters are available on the Frontier Guard YouTube channel. Below is a preview of the series:

Click here to view the embedded video.

Hermit of the Mountain, LLC - Venus Rises promotional wallpaper - Mars Warship

Venus Rises makes use of sets, on-location filming, and computer graphics to tell the story of class struggles between humans living on Venus and Mars after the Earth becomes inhospitable. A promising prequel episode was followed by the pilot episode in October 2009. More streaming episodes supported by ads are expected in 2010.

Riese production still

Riese began airing on YouTube on November 1, 2009. The web series follows the adventures of a warrior and her wolf in a steampunk fantasy realm. Riese is available in high definition and is notable for its exceptional production value and being filmed using the Red One camera system. Four episodes were released in 2009 and more are planned for 2010. The teaser trailer is below:

Click here to view the embedded video.

January 03, 2010 screenshot of Buck Rogers Begins website

James Cawley is the principal behind the Star Trek: Phase 2 fan series. His production companies Cawley Entertainment Company and Retro Film Studios, LLC announced on January 12, 2009 that they had secured the rights to the Buck Rogers franchise. The web series will be based on the original Buck Rogers comic strip and will be unlike any of the series or movies previously based on the character. Bobby Quinn Rice will star as Buck Rogers and Gil Gerard and Erin Gray from the 1979-1981 Buck Rogers in the 25th Century television series will play Buck’s parents. A teaser trailer was released on November 30, 2009 on YouTube:

Click here to view the embedded video.

Principal photography began in September 2009. Production is expected to take about a year, with the series expected to launch in September 2010. With secured rights, the production companies behind the new Buck Rogers web series can consider a variety of business models, such as paid video downloads, ad-supported video streaming, and DVD releases.

Here on Frontier Channel my beats tend toward planetary science, digital media, and life extension. By following digital media and other trends closely over the past decade I have learned a lot about prediction, commentary, futurism, and news reporting as it relates to emerging technologies. For example, it is clear now that specific news related to specific companies regarding their particular products only highlight present expectations. Trend tracking only becomes possible with news and statistics related to several companies and their products across multiple industries over time.

You would think this is obvious. However, in 2000 I was writing about specific companies developing hydrogen fuel cells, a technology that was expected to revolutionize energy creation, storage, and distribution over the rest of the decade. I was also writing about Media Fusion, a company that planned to “pass data over powerlines at speeds in excess of 2.5 GB/sec.” The clincher? I was saying the following about the AOL and Time Warner merger announced on January 10, 2000:

“Wow. Merge a content provider with a content delivery company and you have incredible potential. Definitely a sign of things to come.”

Yikes. Now, I do not claim to be a professional reporter or futurist, but it is sad to look back and realize that I could scarcely even be called a amateur of either back then. As it was, I took everything on faith, oblivious to how technology really progresses (fuel cells), fraud (Media Fusion), and how often companies make the wrong choices (AOL and Time Warner.)

Ten years after starting what would become Frontier Channel, the same enthusiasm for science and technology has not left me, but it is tempered by experience and good lessons learned. I more clearly separate my commentary from my news reporting. My predications are based more on reason than on enthusiasm, and I give them the level of emphasis they deserve: not much. I look toward scenario-building and other tools of the futurist trade to guide me through my exploration of the future. I am also much less interested in the far future; the near-term and its impact on me, my family and friends, and humanity as a whole are much more pertinent.

This is not to say that I think prediction and other commentary about technology trends are useless. For one thing, prediction is fun as hell! Bad predictions only make me want to make better predictions. As for commentary? I could not keep my mouth shut if I tried. Writing is expression, and express myself I must, in commentary, news reporting, tweets, research papers, fiction, etc. I have found more clarity through writing than in any other activity.

Predictions and commentary also fix thoughts in time, providing a repository online of what I was thinking at a particular time and how it related to everything else that was going on then. Like leaving breadcrumbs along an unfamiliar path, I can retrace that path in hopes of gaining greater wisdom and insight. Along the path from 2000 to 2010 I have learned that technological progress does not follow one technology to the next. Instead new technologies arise like plants out of a soil that is constantly being enriched. For example, the arrival of the iPhone, my absolute favorite technology of the entire last decade, cannot be explained by the strict evolution of media players and cellphones over several years. A better model is one that looks at a host of technologies in a holistic way and when they will support something like an iPhone. The iPhone arrived when the technological substrate upon which it was build could support it. That is, interface technology, memory, software development, cellular and wireless standards, and other technologies all had to reach a particular level of cost and availability before the iPhone could be created.

From this realization, I learned to focus on the “background” of technology development rather than the “foreground”. What the technology blogs focus on are technologies as they are released; this is the exciting and flashy foreground stuff. Much more interesting is the technological substrate that makes these foreground technologies possible. By paying attention to the technological substrate, I argue that it becomes easier to predict when certain future technologies will arrive. Let’s take that common cynical observation about us living in the future but not yet having flying cars. We do not have flying cars because the technological substrate cannot support them. For one thing, keeping track of vehicles in 3-D is a difficult problem. For another, fuel requirements remain high for flying vehicles. When will we have flying cars? When these and other problems are solved, by technologies that will serve as a foundation upon which flying cars can be built.

In August 2004 I was predicting a coming convergence of technologies that would allow my dream eBook Reader to be available to consumers:

“Around 2006, all the technology components will be in place, and the truly great eBook reader should become available around 2007, if not a little sooner. Once introduced, subsequent versions with enhanced features will likely spell the end for books early in the next decade as more and more people are converted to the convenience of superior eBook readers.”

I did not have everything about this dream ebook reader correct; in fact, the product turned out not to be an ebook reader at all. It was the iPhone and many of the capabilities I was looking for came in the form of apps.While the Kindle and other current ebook readers resemble in many ways what I was predicting would arrive by the end of the decade, the iPhone turned out better than what I wanted. Today the iPhone is an unrivaled platform, supporting augmented reality, gaming, content creation, and other activities in a single device I could not have imagined back in 2004. All of this became possible, however, because a host of other technologies provided the appropriate foundation to support the iPhone, Kindle, and other similar devices. In fact, that infrastructure is still improving, leading quite probably to multimodal tablets that will lead consumers away from desktops, laptops, and netbooks over the next decade.

There were other lessons to be learned while writing for Frontier Channel. A specific prediction of a capability, such “a display resolution of at least 300 dots per square inch”, may turn out not to be necessary at all. Another: surprises do happen. This makes predication more difficult, but it also makes the future, when it arrives, more exciting. I also learned that studying technology trends can serve to improve your own personal financial situation. For example, I skipped over the entire era of cellphones from 2000 to 2007 that began including features like cameras and music playing. I stuck with a simple pre-paid phone with few features for years because technology trends indicated what I really wanted would be arriving later in the decade. By listing what I want in technology and paying attention to technology trends, I have learned to budget my money to make purchases at just the right time. This has led to incredibly satisfying, personal, and exciting purchases of products that I greatly appreciate and adore. The iPhone is my best example of this methodology, as is the desktop computer I just built.

This methodology also strongly suggests that this will probably be the last desktop computer that I will ever own, that the 2010s will see the peak of consumer electronics before an inevitable and spectacular crash around 2018, and that the Metaverse awaits humanity in the 2020s. Yes, this is a glimpse of my new predictions for the coming decade. Unlike the predictions I began making back at the beginning of Frontier Channel, these predictions are based on the lessons I have learned, analysis of technology trends based on years of compiled statistics, and attention to how these technologies progress, rather than handwaving. Yet it is likely that these predications are only incrementally better, if at all, then my previous predictions. Knowing the limitations of predictions may also make for better predictions.

The best part of owning a website like Frontier Channel is recording my thoughts in public, and being held to them. I look forward to another decade of writing and the discourse that results. I want to thank the readers who have followed along any time over the past ten years, especially those who have left insightful, informative, and interesting comments. I also want to thank the guest writers that helped tell the exciting story of emerging technologies. Here is to ten more years of news and commentary about the Great Frontiers of cyberspace, outer space, the ocean, and destinations in between!

Image credit: Twentieth Century Fox - promotional wallpaper from Avatar

[REVIEW] [SPOILERS] – James Cameron’s “Avatar” is an astonishing and must-see movie. It is also a huge disappointment. What follows is a spoiler-rich dissection of an industry in transition, and it is best read after you see “Avatar” for yourself.

Astonishing

For movie audiences, “Avatar” offers nothing less than a revolution in audiovisual entertainment. Cameron draws the viewer into the new world of Pandora with a seamless blending of CGI, live action, and 3-D, creating an immersive experience unlike any film to date. Viewers are going to be going back again and again to experience Pandora and its flora and fauna; yes, Pandora is that rich. For all the promise of CGI, it was unclear just when the technology would be able to capture our most vivid dreamscapes. With “Avatar” that time is now.

Viewing making-of video for segments like Jake’s first glorious Banshee ride and Zoe Saldana amazing motion-capture performance indicate just how much filmmaking itself has being revolutionized by Cameron. Filmmakers are going to be turning to this approach in droves. Cameron also deserves accolades for his achievements in directing this epic. He is a master of moving through scenes, real or virtual. His skills are always on display, whether in long shots featuring vistas of Pandora with Polyphemus and its other moons in the sky, dynamic camera movements in action scenes, or closeups of Jake during his video logs and other personal moments.

Disappointing

“Avatar” enhances filmmaking with cutting-edge technologies to create a new kind of movie-going experience. As a story, however, the film’s plot is a disappointing failure. Not only is the story derivative, but it is ultimately too simplistic and naive. There is no subtlety in the conflict between the noble people of Pandora – the Na’Vi – and their human antagonists. Nature will beat technology because Cameron has chosen hypocrisy: all that money, time, and labor to build and use incredible new technology for telling stories through film and “Avatar” still ends up being an attack on technology and progress. The Na’Vi have eschewed most technology and like the Ewoks before them rise up to defeat a more technologically-advanced adversary. It is sad that a director who has parlayed his interest in science, art, and technology into a career that has continuously pushed filmmaking beyond the cutting-edge would write a story that so vilifies technology and progress. Not once in this movie do the protagonists appreciate or acknowledge the very technology that allowed them to be where they are. Jake seems to take for granted the technologies that brought him to Pandora and allowed him to leave his crippled body behind for the vital human/alien hybrid body cloned for him.

Image credit: Twentieth Century Fox - promotional wallpaper from Avatar

Also appalling is how the plot refuses to acknowledge current trends in emerging technologies. Set in the 22nd century, “Avatar” cannot rise above the early 21st century in most of the technologies, social norms, and speech patterns depicted. We are told that in a time of interstellar travel, cloning, human/alien hybrids, and Amplified Mobility Platform suits, medicine in the 22nd century cannot treat Jake’s paraplegia economically and evolving language cannot provide Colonel Quaritch with better quotes than “You’re not in Kansas anymore.” In “Avatar”, for every artifact like transparent monitors and mind transfer pods there are artifacts like mugs and wheelchairs that seem to be little changed from today. These conspire to pull the audience out of the movie, even as Pandora itself draws them in.

Rapid technological progress is turning science fiction into reality. Science fiction in movies and television today must acknowledge this fact or risk the same backlash that has nearly decimated written science fiction. Those who are emerging technology aware can only suspend their disbelief so much; as these ideas become more mainstream, audiences are going to expect storytelling that acknowledges the real wonders already emerging around us.

“Avatar” required a script to honor and explore the same progress that led Cameron to complete a movie he once shelved because technology was not far enough along to realize his vision. Unfortunately, the script fails to do this. Instead, the movie now stands as a stunning vision of the future and uncomfortable reminder of the past. Someone will soon marry a brilliant script with this filmmaking technology, resulting in an immersive experience that not only engages the eyes, ears, and heart, but also the brain. As it stands, “Avatar” indicates not only a revolution in filmmaking that will transform entertainment, but one that will bring about the end of movies, television, and gaming as we know them today.

The End

In “Avatar” as in all other movies, passive audiences depend on the director to take them through the film’s world. We are guided by the director’s expert hands through visuals as they apply to the plot and the director’s particular vision. Despite Cameron’s expertise, during “Avatar” I found myself wishing over and over again to explore something in more detail that he did not. I wanted to linger on new vistas that brought with them a gasp of astonishment, only to be thwarted by a director that had other concerns. This became increasingly frustrating until I could only sigh in reluctance as we moved on for a poor story that had to be told in a set amount of time.

More movies are going to be made in this way while resolution improves and the 3-D becomes more and more immersive. The same technology will migrate to television and eventually even amateurs will have access. As movie theaters adapt and 3-D televisions start flooding the consumer electronics market, there will be few if any vistas, real or imagined, that cannot be captured on film. Studios and independent efforts will mine the richest fantasy and science fiction in comics and books. They will remake genre films that could benefit from these new tools and they will adapt these tools for romances, dramas, and documentaries. However, all of this media will still be limited by linear storytelling and the expectation that directors draw audiences through their film along predestined paths. As rich as these films will become, audiences will become frustrated with their passive role. Audiences will begin to demand participation.

The first filmmakers to merge this immersive filmmaking technology with the interactivity and immediacy of video games will bring about the end of television, movies, and gaming as we know them today. Audiences will walk through and experience entertainment with all of their senses. The Metaverse will serve as the medium for this new entertainment, relegating older forms of entertainment to nostalgic, in-world depictions on virtual walls. This immersive digital future is already writ large in bright neon letters across the end of the 2010s. With “Avatar”, Cameron has given us our first real look at what the future of entertainment will be like, while demonstrating the limitations of current forms of entertainment.

The online call to action comes several months after the SENS Foundation was spun off from the Methuselah Foundation, taking Dr. de Grey and the SENS research initiatives with it. The recent increase in mainstream media coverage of emerging technologies may benefit organizations like SENS Foundation seeking supporters using online platforms. Causes is an application built on top of the Facebook platform to take advantage of a user’s social graph and apply it to fundraising.

The SENS approach to life extension focuses on seven types of aging damage. Dr. de Grey theorizes that repairing this damage may enhance health and extend a person’s life just long enough for them to benefit from even more advanced anti-aging technologies expected to arrive in coming decades. SENS researchers are targeted these types of damage in their own Research Center and through partnerships with other research facilities. Accourding to their website, SENS Foundation in 2010 intends to ramp up their LysoSENS research initiative while pursuing “our work on atherosclerosis, immunosenescence, and macular degeneration.”

Will SENS work? While Dr. de Grey and other researchers support this particular approach, perhaps most important to the goal of ending aging is any research that can shine more light on aging. The SENS Foundation offers a more focused program than most and it is ideally situated to initiate research that is not currently being conducted elsewhere. Also promising are SENS Foundation’s adherence to scientific research methods and the credentials of the team gathered. The history of efforts to end aging is fraught with superstition, pseudoscience, and outrageous claims not backed up by compelling, peer-reviewed, and repeatable evidence. The SENS Foundation includes at all levels well-respected and experienced scientists as well as undergraduate and graduate students working on degrees in relevant fields.

That agreement was reached and on Tuesday at their final Macworld appearance Apple announced that the music offered on iTunes will soon be DRM-free. However, some commentators are criticizing the fees to consumers to unlock the DRM for music they already purchased (30 cents for individual songs and 30% for albums.) Despite the arrival of legal and unlocked music, the Electronic Frontier Foundation (EFF) points out that other digital media is still wrapped in DRM.

Convincing consumers to pay for these dubious upgrades as well as the continued presence of DRM elsewhere are signs that the transition from traditional to purely digital media, albeit rapid, will not be easy. Another sign of these growing pains is the sudden disappearance from Apple iTunes App Store of ebooks using ScrollMotion‘s Iceberg platform. Launched in December with bestselling books like “Twilight” and “The Golden Compass”, the response among consumers and bloggers varied from excitement to disappointment at the price and the “one app equals one ebook” lack of management that can leave your iPhone desktop cluttered. It is unclear why these ebooks no longer appear on the App Store; I emailed the company with a request for comment. With music, a variety of platforms came and went, sometimes taking the purchased music with them and forcing consumers to buy the same content again and again. In these early days of widening support for ebooks by the major book publishers similar trends may prevail.

More digital media content across multiplying platforms combined with the ongoing formation of consumer preferences will continue to result in both exciting developments and disappointing frictions. As yet another example, online video viewing grew 34 percent between November 2007 and November 2008 according to comScore, but the movie and television digital download industry has yet to settle on a standard format that would work across devices from various vendors.

Consumers are flocking to the net for their media consumption. Eventually the standardization of formats, the dropping of DRM, and the ascent of online digital media retailers to become the top sellers of content will follow from music to video, games, books, and all other media. Until then, or until all media and all devices are tied into some future iteration of the Cloud that abstracts formats away from consumer awareness, these growing pains will continue.

It has been over four years since I relaunched Frontier Channel as a news and commentary site with a discussion of pseudoscience and the Technological Singularity. The commentary – “Science, Pseudoscience, and My Love of the End of the World” – began with me listening to Coast to Coast AM with George Noory, a habit I dropped soon after except for a rare listen when particular guest speakers are scheduled. The show remains popular but the problem I mentioned four years ago also remains: the mix of legitimate scientists with pseudoscientists and crackpots dilutes science education. All guests’ topics are treated as equal night after night.

Those people well versed in rigorous day-to-day science can quite easily tell the real from the fantastic, and when they cannot they temper any enthusiasm with an appropriate level of scepticism. It is not clear to me that many in the general public can do the same. Some might claim that this radio show is all about entertainment with a dash of learning thrown in. However, in a world of rapid technological change, where science fiction sometimes becomes science reality, where questions of science become political quagmires based on belief systems rather than empirical evidence, reason, and logic, the ability to tell the difference becomes increasingly important. Coast to Coast AM simply does not help.

Radio shows are not the only problem, and four years after my commentary it seems there is more talk of pseudoscience in the mainstream media than ever before. Mixed in with truly amazing scientific discoveries and technological progress are articles about prayers for rain in areas suffering drought, ghosts allegedly captured on video camera, New Age drivel masked as quantum mechanics (think “The Secret”), and nasty commentary about the evils of progress. It is as if serious news reporting never went away, but instead began to meld with stories previously found only in the tabloids, resulting in the hybrid major news websites of today.

What then to make of my own rather consistent coverage of the Technological Singularity here on Frontier Channel, as well as increasing attention to cryonics, transhumanism, and other ideas many legitimate scientists consider to be pseudoscience, or at best, fringe science? Has Frontier Channel itself become an example of the problems I find with mainstream news outlets? I have admitted in the past that in high school and college I was a rapt fan of pseudoscience. Have these new topics led me back to those silly days?

Unfortunately, the answer lies somewhere along the fine line between science and pseudoscience, a line blurred by the trends of today. On the one hand we do appear to be experiencing technological progress at rates never before experienced. Breakthroughs that were science fiction only a decade ago have become old news. Legitimate scientists sometimes report extraordinary advancements, like parallel computing in nanoscopic devices, reasoning avatars in Second Life, epigenomic understandings of diseases, an increasing number of spots in our own solar system that might harbor extraterrestial life, etc. Real life sometimes comes across like a tabloid article or science fiction story!

However, there are tools we can use to explore each one of these breakthroughs. Today’s breakthroughs require tomorrow’s confirmation. That excited moment of awe requires many moments more of critical analysis.

Pseudoscience, unlike science, is often very entertaining even at its most detailed. Pseudoscience has to be: it is competing for your entertainment time budget. Proponents must tell the most exciting tale possible, glossing over anything that might poke holes in the idea or decrease the entertainment value. Pseudoscience can be boring, of course, but not in the same way the minutia of peer-reviewed science can leave even the most enthusiastic defender bleary eyed and brain dead. Science does not have the luxury of glossing over details Further more, it is written in languages many people do not have a good grasp of, like the language of statistics, of graphics and charts, of images that without context make little sense in our macroscopic existence. Pseudoscience only requires the language of mainstream storytelling.

Pseudoscience is not hard. There is no rigor to its practice. Science, on the other hand, plumbs new depths everyday and requires rigorous checking and rechecking, confirmation, reporting, peer review, and other activities that are really designed to falsify the working theory. Scientists put in long hours for a reason: science is hard work.

So then, back to the Technological Singularity. There is not currently a rigorous “Science of the Singularity”, though there is compilation of statistics related to exponential technology trends and there is active and increasingly mainstream scientific and engineering attention to Artificial General Intelligence.

Without a “Science of the Singularity” it is hard to say why such an event should occur, trace its constraints, or fit it properly within various contexts. This is addressed somewhat by the activity in the AGI and AI fields, and therefore Vernor Vinge’s idea of the Technological Singularity appears to be on firmer scientific footing than Ray Kurzweil’s idea.

Partly because of this lack of a specific “Science of the Singularity” my focus on these ideas have been greatly modified in the past four years: instead of the heady far future, I am much more interested in near term prospects, benefits, and consequences understood within a framework of “technology”, “engineering”, and similar contexts. It is all I can do to keep up with accelerating technological progress over the next few years, let alone over the next several decades. At the most recent Singularity Summit I saw this in many other attendees and speakers. There was a shift of emphasis from the Singularity itself to business plans for emerging technologies coming much sooner.

In this I find support for the direction Frontier Channel has taken. The Technological Singularity will remain a framework by which we can explore emerging technologies and trends and how they may potentially merge, but the emphasis will be on the near-term rather than more “fringy” speculation. With cryonics I will focus more on the science of cryopreservation and scientific breakthroughs related to retrieving viable biological material than the possible technologies that might someday bring a person back to life. With transhumanism I will focus on the social movement and recognition of the impact of science and technology on humanity rather than speculate about a posthuman future.

And of course I will continue to report on the latest planetary science findings, an exciting field far removed from the fringe but even more compelling than science fiction led us to believe in those days before spacecraft visited the planets and their moons and before astronomers captured the first visible light images of exoplanets. Discovery backed by compelling evidence and data provides a depth of joy and consequence pseudoscience can never provide and fringe science cannot until it has been built on a firmer foundation.