Washington, November 02, 2009

Washington, November 02, 2009

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

Inside, the house was completely restored, a 1910 charmer with three bedrooms, three baths and a two-car garage. Outside, there was nothing inviting about the aluminum and frosted glass windows that enclosed the porch. The property sat on the market for seven . . .]]>

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

Inside, the house was completely restored, a 1910 charmer with three bedrooms, three baths and a two-car garage. Outside, there was nothing inviting about the aluminum and frosted glass windows that enclosed the porch. The property sat on the market for seven months, with little buyer interest. Finally, the sellers’ agent persuaded the reluctant owners to remove the windows and open the porch. Before the job was even completed, the home in St. Petersburg, Fla. sold for $475,000, just below the asking price. Such is the power of curb appeal.

Curb appeal refers to the desirability of a home from the outside. And in a housing market with a glut of homes for sale, curb appeal is a competitive edge. Well-priced homes in prime locations often don’t evoke the interest they should simply because the exteriors lack charisma. ”Whether it is someone passing by who won’t stop to pick up a flyer or someone on the Internet who is put off by the photos, the seller is missing out on potential buyers. First impressions are crucial,” says Sharon Simms, a broker with ALVA International, who represented the Florida sellers. While there is no shortage of information on making an exterior sizzle, it is hard to be objective when it comes to your own property. ”You get so used to going home to your own house that often you don’t see the problems and frequently owners don’t use the front door,” so they don’t realize when they look up there are cobwebs hanging over the entry or that the door sticks, says Simms.

–New Eyes, New Vision

To see what the buyers see, put yourself in their shoes by viewing your house from across the street. ”This is where agents typically park to first show buyers a home,” says Barb Schwarz, president of StagedHomes.com and author of several books on staging. Take pictures. Nothing brings a third party perspective more than the camera’s neutral lens. You’ll catch things, like the trash cans in front of the garage or brown spots in the grass. From the opposite curb, slowly make your way to the entry, narrowing your focus every few feet. Are there stains on the driveway? Is the path to the front door obvious and unobstructed? Is the yard a mishmash of lawn ornaments? Is the facade too plain? Does the entry make you want to see more of the house?

–Taming the Wild

Landscaping should not only frame the house, but also funnel the eye to the front door. Cut overgrown ground cover and plants to clear walkways and open a visual path. Schwarz recommends trimming overgrown shrubs from the top down rounding the tops. For trees, she starts at the bottom, removing branches that obstruct the view of the house. Keep foundation plants below the windows. The exterior looks better, and the interior will get more light. Optimize appeal by removing anything that distracts or suggests the property is not well maintained. Remove stains from the driveway and walkways. Clean out gutters and repair any peeling paint. Move trash cans out of view, put away toys and any leftover gardening tools. Remove dead plants and keep flowering plants looking fresh by removing old blossoms. Rake leaves. Don’t slack off after the initial open house. You have to be vigilant about appearances the entire time the house is on the market. –Focus on the Front The front entry is the one place buyers will have ample time to take in every detail as they wait for the agent to retrieve the key from the lockbox and open the door. Make sure the front entrance is clean and inviting. Make sure the door operates smoothly. Shine (or replace) door knobs, locks and house numbers. Replace an old or cracked doorbell; a new one costs $20 or less. ”If you can’t afford to upgrade the entire exterior, concentrate on the front door which will bring the biggest bang for the buck,” advises Michelle Valigursky co-author of ”Creating Curb Appeal.

–Power of Paint

Many real estate agents swear by paint. ”The scent of fresh paint sets the tone for the house,” says Linda Itami with Prudential Utah in Salt Lake City who typically advises sellers to give the entry a facelift by painting the door. ”The mailbox is the same thing. I like people to paint them or get a new mailbox.” Paint is also a wonderful way to highlight architectural details. Use no more than three colors, cautions Schwarz, who recommends checking out the newest local subdivision for color cues. Also, paint retailers such as Sherwin Williams and Benjamin Moore have information and recommended color combinations for various architectural styles. ”I always suggest a rich and interesting color,” for the front door, says Michelle Molinari, a professional stager in Louisiana and co-owner of CurbAppealForDummies.com. ”The biggest secret is a black front door. You never see a black front door on a cheap house.”

–Set the Scene

Enlarge any skimpy planting beds along the foundation or the walkway and rejuvenate existing beds with new mulch. Molinari recommends dark mulch. ”It makes the greens look greener and it also grounds the house. One of the messages I want the house to send is that it is sturdy and stable and well constructed,” she says. Use landscaping as punctuation and focus color and white flowers in places you want people to notice. On the front porch, try positioning a chair on either side of the front door or in a grouping with a small table. Soften the look with an outdoor pillow or two. Set the scene for coffee or lemonade. Finish the entry with a pop of green. Fill a planter, color coordinated with the house, with a conical evergreen and finish it with seasonal flowers. Don’t forget lighting. Potential buyers often view a home online and then drive by after work. Interested buyers also like to see what a home looks like after dark.

–Look to the Sides

No matter how beautifully you’ve staged your own home, the effect will be lost if the homes on either side are unkempt. Often, says Scott Mosby, a contractor from Kirkwood, Mo., it is hard to tell where your property line begins and the neighbor’s ends. Experienced real estate agents offer an array of solutions, which might be a simple as offering to mow a neighbor’s lawn.

–Online Update

Lastly, once you’ve amped up the exterior make sure your agent broadcasts it with new photos online. The Internet is the new curb since most buyers begin their search there and your home has only three seconds to catch a buyer’s eye. Research shows exterior improvements pay off with faster sales and higher prices in some markets. Improvements such as wood decks and new siding typically bring the highest returns on resale, according to the National Association of Realtors annual report on cost versus resale value.

There are no guarantees in real estate but an enhanced appearance is the best way to insure your home passes the three-second test.

By Leslie Mann, SPECIAL TO THE TRIBUNE

Attention home builders: Sixty-two percent of households have at least one pet, according to the American Pet Products Association. Half of them consider their pets “just as much a part of the family” as others in the household, according . . .]]>

By Leslie Mann, SPECIAL TO THE TRIBUNE

Attention home builders: Sixty-two percent of households have at least one pet, according to the American Pet Products Association. Half of them consider their pets “just as much a part of the family” as others in the household, according to a 2009 Roper poll. So including pet-friendly home features makes sense. “My dogs are my partners, so when we talked to our builder about what we wanted in our house, they were a big consideration,” says Jennifer Voss, who hired Orren Pickell Designers & Builders in Lincolnshire to build her Hinsdale house in 2007.

Leslye Sandberg says she made sure her architect, Kevin Kazimer of South Barrington, knew she was “animal-nutty” before he designed the gut-rehab of her 1940s Barrington house. Her house must not only withstand her 180-pound Irish wolfhound, Roric, and three black cats, she told him, but also the wolfhound parties she hosts. Sandberg’s needs began with the house plan itself, she says. “We had to have a ranch because wolfhounds get arthritic when they’re older and have trouble with stairs,” she says. For Voss, a doggie shower for her Labradors, Tex and Gus, was a priority. Four to five times a week, the labs obey her “shower up” command before heading out to their duties as Delta Society-registered dog therapists at libraries and nursing homes. “Most of our buyers with dogs want dog showers or tubs with hand-held sprayers, usually in the garage or laundry room,” says Jeff Eichorn from Pickell. Oakbrook Terrace-based homebuilder Anthony Cesario uses his favorite line of extra-deep laundry tubs for dog tubs. He installs them floor-level or waist-high, depending on the size of the dog, then adds a tile surround. Another popular dog amenity, say the builders, is the Dutch door. “When I have a party, the dogs can go into their beds in the laundry room, but still hear everyone because the top part is open,” explains Voss.

The No. 1 request from cat owners, says Eichorn, is extra-deep windowsills so the cats can watch the world go by. “We made one with a stone sill, so it didn’t get scratched up,” he says. Sandberg specified double-hung windows because they accommodate the cat perches she makes from wood and sheepskin. And, she asked her architect to make sure he left enough room between the refrigerator and upper cabinet for her very social cat, Slink, to oversee kitchen activities.

Forget the man cave: Lake Forest homeowner Ann Hernandez asked her architect, Anthony Perry in Libertyville, to build a cat cave under the stairway, adjacent to the lower-level sitting room. Perry used a tree from the property to fashion a floor-to-ceiling, built-in cat tree. “He goes in there when he wants to be by himself,” says Hernandez of her cat, Boof, who enters through his cat door. South Barrington-based builder Evan Harris has built litterbox cabinets in laundry rooms. “I include a low-volume fan that stays on,” he explains. “It doesn’t make much noise, and keeps the air flowing outside.”

Fish fanciers look to companies including Aquarium Professionals Group in Evanston to equip their homes. When Decature Tounsel built his Skokie house in 2009, a coral reef aquarium was his must-have. The result: a 260-gallon tank on his first floor, with the plumbing and equipment in a basement “fish room.” An extra beam reinforces the floor under the tank. While his clownfish and anemone fish frolic among the coral, exhaust fans carry the humidity and heat that the tank generates upward, though the walls and out the roof. Cabinetry surrounding the tank has marine varnish to avoid peeling.

Some new-home products are more pet-friendly than others, say the builders. Eichorn likes distressed wooden floors. “They are already worn, so toenail scratches don’t show,” he says. Color variations in the wood make pet hair less visible, he adds. The floor of a Mettawa homeowner’s “dog room,” designed by Pickell, is tiled for maximum defense from scratches and muddy footprints. Owners of drooly dog breeds, especially, should consider wall paint with high gloss, suggests Eichorn. “Very easy to wipe off.” Sandberg recommends a screen/storm door with a portion that slides up and down to suit the height of the pet.

Nancy Peterson from the Humane Society of the United States suggests buying vertical instead of horizontal blinds for minimal damage by climbing pets. A built-in window seat is great, she adds, because it doubles as pet-toy storage and a perfect pet portal. “It’s like pet TV,” she says. In multifamily developments, dog devotees look for clean and accessible areas for their dogs to do their business and socialize with other dogs. “At our old condo, we had to walk down the street to even find a grassy spot,” says Chelsea Maki, who bought a Lakeshore East condominium in Chicago in 2007. “Now, we walk 100 yards to our own, six-acre dog park that’s shaded and has a fountain where the dogs play.” The development has dogs aplenty, says Maki, who has a Siberian husky named Brody and a Scottish terrier named Duncan. Management keeps a list of doggie services, including a mobile groomer who comes weekly.

Dog people who play together stay together, says Kristy Brown, who bought a townhouse in 2008 at Cornelia Court in Chicago to suit her beagle-pug mix named Brutus and her English bulldog, Lucille. “We have our own gated park, where all the dogs play together safely,” says Brown. “Our neighbors are great ‘dog people.’ We dog-sit for each other. It took us a long time to find this place and we plan to stay.”

Copyright 2009 Chicago Tribune Company

Tip: As the seasons begin to change, try decorating for fall instead of Halloween and Thanksgiving specifically. Using a more general theme of fall leaves, pumpkins (no faces), orange, gold, and brown palettes, your decor can . . .]]>

Tip: As the seasons begin to change, try decorating for fall instead of Halloween and Thanksgiving specifically. Using a more general theme of fall leaves, pumpkins (no faces), orange, gold, and brown palettes, your decor can last from now until the end of November.

Skip the jack-o-lanterns and ghosts, ditto for the turkeys and pilgrims, and try using nature as your inspiration. You’ll find it looks much more elegant and natural and less themed. Do however, remember the big bowl of candy or your name will be mud with the trick-or-treaters.

ECO by Consentino is a great option for a green countertop material made of recycled material. Visit www.ecobyconsentino.com

For more than a decade we lived in a culture of real-estate ambition as up-ticking values made every house a potential nest egg. God help us, we were a nation of bidders and flippers consumed by balloon mortgages, rate locks and transfer taxes.

Now that Americans . . .]]>

For more than a decade we lived in a culture of real-estate ambition as up-ticking values made every house a potential nest egg. God help us, we were a nation of bidders and flippers consumed by balloon mortgages, rate locks and transfer taxes.

Now that Americans are resigned to staying put for a while, will they spend more on renovating and refurnishing their existing homes? A $20 million ad campaign launched yesterday by Ogilvy & Mather urges Americans to think of their homes as the focus of their emotional lives, if no longer their financial lives, and to spend accordingly. “Things that fill our home also fulfill us,” an online version of the ad states. “They become who we are. Giving us joy. Providing us with comfort.” A print version (above), which appears in Metropolitan Home and Elle Decor, shows a cute family cuddling on a couch. A pricetag affixed to the couch says: “22 percent cotton, 13 percent giggles, 15 percent group hugs, 11 percent afternoon naps.”

The message: investing in family bonding is not luxury. Maybe not, but spending on couches, drapes and other furnishings is considered a leading economic indicator precisely because it is so discretionary. That new end table is among the first items deferred when the economy sours, and among the last to come back during a recovery. Furniture spending generally trails housing by six to nine months, according to Warren Shoulberg, editor-in-chief of HFN, a trade magazine. That means any upswing is still six months off. Sales of home furnishings fell 12.9% over the last year, and they’re still dropping. Sales were down .9% in July from June, according to the Commerce Department.

Behind the ad lies a bit of industry intrigue. For decades the American furniture business has been based in High Point, North Carolina, where much of it was once (but no longer) manufactured. But over the past four years the momentum has shifted to the flamboyant World Market Center (above), a 1.3-million-square-foot showroom and exhibition space in Las Vegas. The Las Vegas group commissioned the ad campaign, which amounts to a declaration that it now speaks for the industry. “None of the individual companies has the ability to do something like this on their own so Las Vegas just stepped up and did it,” Shoulberg said. “They’re clearly trying to one-up High Point with this.”

by Michael Cannell from www.fastcompany.com

A great article on Kitchen Design Trends from Dallas Interior Decorating Examiner Nancy Baldwin and www.examiner.com

Kitchen design trends are a reflection of changes in how we use our homes. As our families have become more mobile, and as entertaining has become a regular occurrence, . . .]]>

A great article on Kitchen Design Trends from Dallas Interior Decorating Examiner Nancy Baldwin and www.examiner.com

Kitchen design trends are a reflection of changes in how we use our homes. As our families have become more mobile, and as entertaining has become a regular occurrence, the kitchen has evolved into a multi-purpose space combining function and style. Floor plans have become more open, and kitchens have merged with family rooms and dining rooms, forcing those areas to accommodate each other. The latest kitchen design trends reflect our need for a more livable, comfortable and flexible environment.

Below is a quick recao of the key trends. Future articles will go into more depth with each of these décor directions.

Color
Kitchen color runs the gamut from bold reds and yellows, now a bold complement to contemporary décor, to clear blues, neutral grays and warm browns which work well with transitional and traditional décor. Textured finishes remain trendy especially metallic accents in contemporary kitchens and rustic finishes in traditional kitchens. For trends in interior paint colors see Paint Color Trends for Interiors.

Cabinets
According to the National Kitchen & Bath Association (NKBA), wooden cabinetry in a furniture style is still the first choice for home owners. Upscale traditional looks use doors of maple and cherry hardwoods with onlays and moldings to create a luxury appearance. However, contemporary cabinetry is gaining in style acceptance with lighter woods, including environmentally-friendly bamboo, ash, beech and birch, as well as lighter finishes, cleaner lines and simple brushed steel hardware.

Countertops
The most fashionable countertops use natural stone including granite, marble and limestone. However, the trend in natural materials is toward slate which offers a unique elegance and sophistication. Slate has the strength and durability of granite and marble without the constant need for maintenance and care. In custom kitchens, stainless steel countertops have become a popular option.

Large Appliances
Kitchen appliances are becoming more sophisticated and high-tech as well as attractive. Appliances which have commercial features or a commercial look, especially in stainless steel, lead the market. Regarding stainless steel, “It’s still a large part of the market,” states Michael Wasson, Chief Technical Officer of Asko Appliance Inc.. Once restricted to higher-end appliances, stainless steel is now available as an option on lower-priced appliances as well.

Flooring
Eco-conscious consumers are opting for bamboo flooring in their kitchens. A more renewable resource than hardwood, bamboo allows the beauty of the outdoors to be brought inside. However consumers are increasingly selecting hardwood for the kitchen as improvements in construction have increased the number of available colors, cuts, finishes and styles. Saltillo tile, glass tile and concrete flooring are also becoming increasingly popular.

Although “green” is now very much in the nation’s vernacular, green builders should not assume that consumers are sold on sustainability, Suzanne Shelton, president and CEO of the Shelton Group, told the NAHB National Green Building Conference last month in Dallas.

Shelton said that prospective buyers . . .]]>

Although “green” is now very much in the nation’s vernacular, green builders should not assume that consumers are sold on sustainability, Suzanne Shelton, president and CEO of the Shelton Group, told the NAHB National Green Building Conference last month in Dallas.

Shelton said that prospective buyers of green homes are more concerned about what sustainable features will do to improve their lives than to save the planet, and at a time when the state of the economy is the leading concern, consumers are looking to save money on energy but also to avoid paying some of the higher prices they associate with green.

Education is key to motivating mainstream consumers to make sustainable choices, she said, and the trick is to provide information that doesn’t overwhelm them. Armchair Environmentalists Green builders need to know what they’re up against, and Shelton said that they can use data such as findings from her company’s surveys and focus groups to talk to customers about what they really care about.

For instance, one of her surveys found that 96% of the public doesn’t know that electricity is bad for the environment; two-thirds don’t know that electricity is generated by burning coal. A small majority correctly identifies coal-fired electrical generation as the leading cause of global warming; most think it’s traffic. “Consumers know enough about green to get them through a cocktail party conversation,” Shelton said. More than half of those surveyed agreed that it’s important to have a green house, but only about a third could name a green home feature. “People say one thing and do another,” she said. “They are great armchair environmentalists, but not great at doing it themselves.” While 49% of consumers say a company’s environmental policies are an important factor in making a decision to make a purchase, only 21% say they have actually bought a product this way and only 7% can name that product.

“There’s a fuzzy cloud around what’s green,” Shelton said, “and consumers are afraid of making the wrong decision. When they don’t know what to do, they do nothing.” Saving on Energy In the current economic environment, low-cost and no-cost have the greatest appeal, she said, and households are changing their habits in order to cut down their energy consumption — 5% reported they were doing so in 2005 but by 2008 that response had risen to 50%. The majority of home owners today would rather replace leaky windows or inefficient HVAC systems than install granite countertops, according to Shelton, but the higher the price, the less likely they are to embrace a sustainable product.

When asked how green compares in price to the regular product, 80% of those surveyed believe it costs more, she said. Participants in focus groups tend to equate green with extravagance. In an era of pragmatism, builders are challenged with turning this perception around. They should be asking their customers, “Why would you spend more money than you have to on energy?” Shelton said. “It just makes sense.” In a survey last year, 72% said that energy prices were making it hard for them to make ends meet.

However, prospects are not motivated by savings alone. Almost half say they are looking for a more comfortable home. Upgrading energy efficiency makes them feel more in control, and that gives them more peace of mind. Consumers want to know “what’s in it for me?” she said. When it comes to green, they are “not doing it for the greater good. And the reasons that they don’t go green are the same reasons that they do go green. They don’t want to give up comfort, peace of mind, freedom.” “Green” and “sustainable” resonate positively with a majority of buyers, she added, but “conservation” rings best, with 88% of those polled responding positively to the word.

Energy efficiency is an easier sell, she said, because “it’s measurable, tangible, you know it when you’ve done it. Efficiency appeals to the rational part of us.” For example, 33% would purchase a programmable thermostat when they were provided with information on the energy it saves, and another 10.9% would buy the product if they received a rebate.

But the biggest hurdle green builders face is that their customers underestimate their energy consumption. “Sixty-one percent say they don’t use as much electricity today as they did five years ago,” Shelton said. “They are wrong; it has gone up 10%. They have no concept of how much they are actually using.” About two-thirds of survey respondents think that their home is energy-efficient, the same share who report that their home is more than 20 years old, and that points to a “disconnect,” she said.

Builders also need to keep in mind that consumers are “skeptical about green claims.” While 60% are positive about the attention that the environment is receiving in the media, 40% are negative. Roughly half of those polled about green companies “think they do it because it makes them look better and they can sell more stuff,” she said. A full 40% also haven’t bought into the view that humans are responsible for causing global warming, another reason why it’s best not to deviate from the practical or tangible side of a product to explain why it’s beneficial for the environment. When it comes to leading the green lifestyle, 73% of households say they will turn things off or unplug them, but only 18% will buy organic produce or meats. “It is the easy stuff they are willing to do,” she said. “The hard stuff, not so much.”

Source: www.nbnnews.com

If you’re looking for some do-it-yourself projects to update the look of your home, here are a few of the quickest and easiest ways to update.

-Fresh Paint: I always say this, but it is always true. A fresh coat of paint can do wonders for . . .]]>

If you’re looking for some do-it-yourself projects to update the look of your home, here are a few of the quickest and easiest ways to update.

-Fresh Paint: I always say this, but it is always true. A fresh coat of paint can do wonders for your home, whether it is inside or out.

-Replace dated fixtures: A new faucet or an updated ceiling fan will instantly make your room look new. Styles change and finishes are always changing. Currently brushed nickel and oil rubbed bronze are popular finishes.

-Paint your cabinets: Are you stuck with pickeled oak from 1991? Sand down your cabinets and try a chocolate brown, black, or cream. Add a rubbed glaze if you are feeling creative and you can instantly make your cabinets look new and even go for the popular antiqued look.

-Replace knobs and pulls: This can be in the bathroom, kitchen, or even on your furniture. This is a very simple and relatively cheap way to give yourself a change.

-Consider new flooring: This task may sound daunting, but you would be surprised how easily you can learn to lay tile, carpet, and even some of the laminate floorings. Compared to hiring someone to do it, you will save hundreds of dollars, and you will give yourself a sense of accomplishment and something to be proud of.

This article from Builderonline.com gave a great sum-up of what the economists are predicting for the housing market next year. For once, there is good news.

Economists Predict Recovery Next Year

Our mid-year forecast roundup reveals big expectations for 2010. By: Boyce Thompson

If the nation’s housing forecasters . . .]]>

This article from Builderonline.com gave a great sum-up of what the economists are predicting for the housing market next year. For once, there is good news.

Economists Predict Recovery Next Year

Our mid-year forecast roundup reveals big expectations for 2010. By: Boyce Thompson

If the nation’s housing forecasters agree that housing starts and sales will drop to record lows this year, they also believe that the nation will see a sizable pickup in activity next year. Going into 2009, many economists were at a loss to predict what might happen to housing starts and sales, though the consensus was that the market would find a bottom. They found it difficult, if not impossible, to predict with any accuracy how quickly the federal government could restore the banking system, whether a viable economic stimulus program would be enacted, and what impact unprecedented declines in home values would have on potential buyers.

As we round the halfway curve for 2009, housing economists still have questions about overall economy. But they say they can see the light at the end of the tunnel, and it’s not a train coming in the opposite direction. The consensus view is that, despite some startling job loss, the overall economy will rebound later this year. That should lead to an improvement in new-home sales and starts, with sales recovering before starts, of course. David Crowe, the NAHB’s chief economist, told the NAHB Board of Directors last month that single-family housing starts are likely to fall 39% this year to a paltry 379,000. But he expects them to increase to 517,000 next year, a 36% increase, as the overall economic improves. Crowe believes that the economy will grow during the second half of the year as stimulus spending begins to have an impact.

Frank Nothaft, the chief economist at Freddie Mac, sees steady improvement in annualized housing starts starting in the fourth quarter of this year. His latest forecast is for a whopping 57% increase in housing starts next year, which is much more optimistic than Crowe’s. Nothaft remains encouraged by signs in the housing market. “Inventories of homes-for-sale are slowly retreating from their recent record levels in many areas,” he wrote in a recent forecast. “Home sales pickup has occurred in many (but not all) states over the past year.” Though many of the sales are distressed, “nevertheless, that indicates that there are ready buyers at current prices, and these distressed sales do clear out the stock of for-sale homes,” according to Nothaft. “The consistency of the improvement hints that these markets may have reached their bottom. Home prices tend to lag in a recovery, but even here we are starting to see the seeds of turnaround. Price declines over the first quarter of 2009 slowed in Arizona, California, Michigan, and Florida, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s purchase-only home price index.”

Nigel Gault of IHS Global Insight, the international economic consulting firm, is calling for an increase in housing starts next year of a similar magnitude—53%. In his forecast, housing starts show improvement in the third quarter of this year and rise steeply through 2012. “Most key indicators of housing activity (home sales, housing starts and permits) are showing signs of stabilization, at least for single-family units, based upon dramatically improved affordability—for those who can qualify for credit,” according to Gault. “Even though there will be a delay after housing starts hit bottom until residential construction spending starts to rise, the latter should occur by year-end.”

Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s economy.com, believes the housing rebound will be slower. “Housing will not be an early source of growth in this recovery,” he said in a conference call last week. “That’s very different from past recoveries,” when housing has typically been a leading indicator of economic growth. Nevertheless, Zandi predicts that by the fourth quarter of next year, total (single- and multi-family) housing starts will return to an annualized pace of 1 million units. They will reach an annualized level of 1.6 million units by the fourth quarter of 2011. “Once we work through the impediments to demand, I do think we’ll see a substantial pickup in economic activity in 2011 and 2012,” he said.

Nearly every housing forecaster remains concerned about problems that could derail future growth. NAHB’s Crowe, for instance, remains concerned about a dramatic increase in the number of mortgages starting foreclosure, and a record 2.2 million excess, vacant homes on the market for sale or for rent. Gault frets about the strength of the economic rebound. Though GDP should turn positive later this year, “in the second half of the year, the inventory cycle will begin to turn, and we expect to see GDP moving higher.

But a rapid recovery is not in prospect, after so extreme a financial shock. The unemployment rate is not likely to peak until sometime in the first half of 2010, at around 10.3%.” Zandi worries that if home prices continue to fall and foreclosures continue to rise, the recession may linger. “This is the one I am most worried about,” said Zandi, who is concerned that the Obama foreclosure mitigation efforts will not be successful—or successful enough. “I am increasingly worried that these impediments [to refinancing and modifying mortgages] cannot be overcome.”