Financial Sense

Market's Bill of Health - Short Term Reversal; Intermediate and Long Term Outlook Still Bullish

Chris Puplava — Fri, 24 May 2013 15 -0700

We have seen a clear deterioration in the market’s short-term trend but this is a welcome event helping to alleviate the market’s overbought condition. With the market’s intermediate-term and long-term trends and momentum still in bullish territory coupled with cyclical leadership, we have a very robust market that is likely to head to new highs once this short-term pullback exhausts itself.

Daily Market Recap

PFS Group — Fri, 24 May 2013 13 -0700

The market was quiet as investors’ kickoff the summer with the 3-day Memorial Day weekend. The S&P 500 was off less than one point and the Dow was slightly higher.

Why a Uranium Renaissance Looks Inevitable

Casey Research — Fri, 24 May 2013 13 -0700

Casey Research's Chief Energy Investment Strategist, Marin Katusa, whose portfolio profited nicely the last time the uranium bull broke loose a decade ago, recently interviewed a group of world-renowned energy experts to discuss the prospects for the sector that some considered doomed by the Fukushima disaster.

Low Inflation Favors Bullish Outlook for Stocks

David Kotok — Fri, 24 May 2013 13 -0700

Inflation is not on the radar anymore. We do hear occasional comments from central bankers who warn about future inflation arising from QE. We also recall a few statements in the media along the lines of, "They're printing all this money, we're going to have huge inflation, and interest rates are going to shoot up."

Durable Goods Orders Rise More Than Forecast

Doug Short — Fri, 24 May 2013 09 -0700

The May Advance Report on April Durable Goods was released this morning by the Census Bureau.

Shinzo Abe’s True Agenda

Pater Tenebrarum — Fri, 24 May 2013 09 -0700

Japan's current economic policy also has strong mercantilist overtones, as the devaluation of the currency is held to help its export sector.

Who Loses from Rising Natural Gas Prices?

Robert Rapier — Fri, 24 May 2013 09 -0700

Natural gas is an important feedstock for the chemicals and fertilizer industries, so higher prices could pressure those sectors. Oil companies with significant chemical operations could also see this business segment take a hit...

The Eurozone’s Economy Could Surprise to the Upside

Sober Look — Fri, 24 May 2013 08 -0700

This may be an unpopular suggestion, but those with a contrarian view of the world will surely appreciate the logic here. The chart below from Goldman shows the consensus economic forecast for 2013 GDP growth of the large Eurozone nations. Again, this is not the actual GDP, but a forecast over time.

Visualizing Public/Private Debt Since 1990

Tim Iacono — Fri, 24 May 2013 08 -0700

One of the more fascinating ways to visualize the world’s growing pile of public and private debt comes via an interactive graphic in the online version of today’s Wall Street Journal.

A Close Examination of the Reversal

Ryan Puplava CMT — Thu, 23 May 2013 15 -0700

The intraday reversal in the markets Wednesday is of big interest and importance to traders and market technicians. Since the Jon Hilsenrath article, almost two weeks ago, investors have put more weight again on any tapering talk from the Fed.

Marc Faber: Central Banks Should Be Manipulating Gold Higher, Not Lower

FS Staff — Thu, 23 May 2013 15 -0700

In this partial transcript of Dr. Marc Faber's interview airing Friday, he discusses why central banks should be manipulating the price of gold higher, whether massive retail buying signifies a bottom, the real state of China's economy, and much more.

Excess German Savings, Not Thrift, Caused the European Crisis

Michael Pettis — Thu, 23 May 2013 09 -0700

One of the reasons that it is been so hard for a lot of analysts, even trained economists, to understand the imbalances that were at the root of the current crisis is that we too easily confuse national savings with household savings.

Is the Market Over-Reacting?

Sheraz Mian — Thu, 23 May 2013 09 -0700

The overnight weak economic news out of China adds to the market uncertainty created by Fed related developments from Wednesday. Hard to tell at this stage whether the global market turmoil is a justified response to what we learnt on Wednesday or the typical over-reaction.

Chart of the Day: Existing Home Sales

Lance Roberts — Thu, 23 May 2013 09 -0700

Existing home sales for April came in at 4.97 million from an upwardly revised March reading of 4.94 million (originally 4.92 million.) However, the question remains that with rising home prices, and tightening supply, when do potential buyers get priced out of home ownership?

Dollar Indices: Research Rubbish?

Ned W Schmidt CFA — Thu, 23 May 2013 08 -0700

Investors rely on indices to help understand how a market is moving, and perhaps even how it might move in the future. Technical analysis of a market, for example, is only possible due to market indices. How else would we assess what might be happening in a market? If an index is not properly constructed, that whole effort may prove fruitless.

Are Covert Operations Underway in the Global Currency Wars?

John Butler — Thu, 23 May 2013 07 -0700

In this report, I consider the goals and methods of foreign exchange intervention and place today’s policies in their historical context. Also, I examine the evidence of where covert intervention—quite common historically—might possibly be taking place: Perhaps where you would least expect it.

Breakout in Bond Yields Foreshadows Possible Economic Acceleration

Chris Puplava — Wed, 22 May 2013 16 -0700

Perhaps THE biggest event so far this week was the breakout in 10-Yr UST yields today north of 2%. As shown below, the 10-Yr UST broke the bearish trend that has been in place since 2011.

Daily Market Recap

PFS Group — Wed, 22 May 2013 15 -0700

The S&P 500 was down 0.83% today and the Dow was lower by 0.52%. From peak-to-trough today the S&P 500 was down 2.3% in today’s trading. Fed Chairman Bernanke’s comments about the possibility of tapering stimulus in the “next few meetings” moved investors to take profits today after an early spike to new highs this morning.

Today’s Dow Now in Third Place

Doug Short — Wed, 22 May 2013 08 -0700

Here is the latest look at the "Sweet Sixteen" Dow recoveries adjusted for inflation/deflation I've been illustrating from time to time over the past three years.

Abenomics in Review: Yen, Inflation, Exports, Imports

Michael Shedlock — Wed, 22 May 2013 08 -0700

With the Yen collapsing vs. all other currencies, inquiring minds may be wondering how prime minister Shinzo Abe's inflation policy is working out in practice. Let's start with a look at the Yen.