Both events will be a mix of tech futures and conversations about how to use technology to help address major local and global issues. We will keep you updated as the planning continues, but whether you have participated in a FiRe conference before or not, you may want to pay attention to these two upcoming events. As a futurist I find them among the best things I do each year.

Someday the net will enable robust, shared 3D experiences.

Someday robust, shared 3D experiences will be secure and stable.

Someday robust, shared 3D experiences that are secure and stable will be relatively simple to produce using mostly off-the-shelf and familiar tools.

Someday robust, shared 3D experiences that are secure and stable, created with off-the-shelf, familiar tools will produce income for those who create them, and those who enable that creation.

Someday robust, shared 3D experiences that are secure and stable and that produce income for creators and enablers will take us to the next level in learning, gaming, and shared online experience.

Someday has arrived, in the form of Blue Mars, from Avatar Reality.

I met Jim Sink, VP for Business Development for Avatar Reality when I interviewed him as he represented his company as a “Fire Starter” at the annual SNS Future In Review Conference. Later, I lunched with Jim and the company co-founder Henk Rogers (of Tetris fame), and science fiction writer Brenda Cooper, and we discussed the future of virtual worlds, augmented reality, and the truly exciting vistas now being opened by faster internet connections and standard processer and graphics boards now capable of running high-end 3D experiences.

Then, last week while in Honolulu to speak on the future of travel and tourism, I took advantage of being there and Jim was kind enough to host an hour-long visit to the offices of Avatar Reality where they are creating Blue Mars, the next big thing in shared, immersive 3D experience on the web. Even though I am familiar with the dreams driving this kind of development, from my years of association with the Human Interface Technology Lab at the University of Washington, I am very impressed with the direction that Blue Mars is taking, and cannot wait for the consumer beta to drop in August 2009. You can sign up for your copy now.

Most of us are familiar with online worlds like World of Warcraft, or Second Life, each of which offers a kind of shared 3D experience. World of Warcraft has succeeded financially with a subsriber model, while Second Life has succeeded by building an internal economy of Linden dollars that correspond to real dollars, some $400 million exchanged in 2008 according to reports.

Blue Mars aims to take us to the next level, by differentiating in several ways. First, the graphics that will be the standard are near big-screen quality. Second, they have invited world developers into a cooperative, shared revenue model, that enables developers to use off-the-shelf graphics tools they are familiar with. Worlds are created off-line, then uploaded. Blue Mars is providing a developer platform with a variety of standard features, like shopping sites and stores, billboards that tie to websites and flash videos, gaming technologies, avatars that have super realism and movement, and clothing that flows and moves like the real thing. Interaction speeds will be very fast, because world elements are fixed and the system is set up in such a way that only elements in a scene that change will be updated in real time, meaning faster response times and a much lower load on the net itself. This increased world stability and fast speed will enable more players to be in a world together. For example, it is possible that many thousands of avatars may attend a stadium event in real time, something like a concert or rally.

World objects, created off-line and fixed at that point, are registered by Blue Mars before they are released into the world. Thus, IP is protected and worlds are more stable than others; only developers may change the world, and rouge community members will not be able to send unregistered objects flying into and sabotaging your scene. Worlds can also be walled from those who are not subscribers. Within worlds subscribers or users may rent their own homes or storefronts, and conduct social and business interactions as in similar online worlds, but again in a more secure way.

The revenue model will be a hybrid and sounds like a winner for Avatar, developers, and users alike. Many worlds will be available – I previewed one called New Venice.

You can watch video previews of Blue Mars features and worlds Blue Mars on YouTube, and as mentioned you can sign up for your own Beta of the client product coming in August.

Blue Mars Trailer (June 2009)

Blue Mars in Development

I have long anticipated the day that we could move to the next level of shared, immersive experience on the web. That someday has arrived.

Glen Hiemstra is a futurist speaker, consultant, blogger, internet video host and founder of Futurist.com. To arrange for a speech contact Futurist.com.

I asked where the future of travel and tourism lies, between the vision of a Virgin Galactic for space adventure, and that of the creators of the Null Stern Hotel in Switzerland, meaning the “zero star” hotel in recognition of the current and future austerity of travel?

The heart of the program focused on 4 converging forces driving the future, and 4 emerging trends in travel and tourism. As a futurist speaker who tries always to see the 360-degree view of future forces, I began with a run-down on the primary forces shaping our time and which I see converging into one grand pattern – economic disparity and frugality, expensive energy, demographic destiny related to aging, young and diverse populations, and environmental imperatives with associated changes in life styles.

In the travel and tourism industry these forces are leading to 4 emerging trends:

1. Keeping it local. If trends in energy, economy, and environment continue, then traveling long distances for recreation will become more rare. In order for the resort community to maintain a market, they will need to cater more to a local clientele. This is captured in the concept of the 10-kilometer hotel, one whose prime customers come from the local area for a respite.

2. Alternative transport. Today the local paper in Seattle featured a photo of a local organic farmer delivering his wares via sailboat to the docks in Seattle. He calls it the no-oil food. In the travel and tourism industry this kind of move will be and is being mirrored as people seek out non-motorized experiences like biking through France, or taking trips by sail. Over the longer term, again depending on how energy, environment, and economic trends play out, it is likely that tourists will seek out slower, less energy intensive, even zero-fossile fuel energy experiences.

3. Destination evolution. This trend is underway, as destination resorts focus on becoming greener and more sustainable, more local in their attraction, more astute in their use of information technology for advertising and for management, and more knowledgeable of market trends via research.

4. New whys of travel. It is said that there is graffiti from ancient tourists on the monuments in Egypt. People have always and will always travel to see new places and people, even if they have to walk or ride an animal to do so. That is not going to change. But, one more time depending on how the converging trends play out, we may see a return to the why of travel being for two primary purposes – to visit family, and to seek new adventure. Business travel may decline as 3D-net technologies become robust, and distance travel may decline as economic and environmental imperatives demand. Local travel may fill the need for reconnecting with yourself and recharging the batteries. In fact making that a focus of what you offer in the travel and tourism industry may be one key to the future.

Glen Hiemstra is a futurist speaker, consultant, blogger, internet video host and founder of Futurist.com. To arrange for a speech contact Futurist.com.

Barrett argues that we should also use this crisis to: 1) require every state to benchmark their education standards against the best in the world, not the state next door; 2) double the budgets for basic scientific research at the National Science Foundation, the Department of Energy and the National Institute of Standards and Technology; 3) lower the corporate tax rate; 4) revamp Sarbanes-Oxley so that it is easier to start a small business; 5) find a cost-effective way to extend health care to every American.

Much of what I have been saying for some time.

Glen Hiemstra is a futurist speaker, consultant, blogger, internet video host and founder of Futurist.com. To arrange for a speech contact Futurist.com.

Today we recorded a conversation responding to three Twitter submitted questions, about the future of our personal media, the future of work, and whether Yogi’s make better futurists. You can listen to the conversation here.

This is how you can participate in WhereIsItGoing (WiiG):

1. Be sure to follow @glenhiemstra and @gleonhard on Twitter.
2. Tweet your future-related questions to us, anytime, and be sure to use the hashtag #wiig (this way we can find your questions via Twitter Search, and you can you also use the hashtag to search for WiiG.
3. If you want your tweets to be included in the live video of the twitter stream (#wiig) please be sure to tweet at 9:00 AM PDT/12 Noon EDT/6PM CET/ 12 midnight Singapore, and follow the live tweets via twitter search; we will publish the finished video on WhereIsItGoing.com soon afterwards. We will be on the tweet streams for about 20 minutes each time we record. The next date will be 30 June 2009.

Spread the word

[Update: Next WIIG recording session changed to July 2, 9:00 AM PDT/12 Noon EDT/6PM CET/ 12 midnight Singapore. Tweet questions with #wiig now or during the live recording.]

A bellweather sector, the retail industry supplies important information on the progression of the economic downturn. How is one of its main providers heading into its annual industry event?

Evidently with some hopeful expectation. The organization president, J. Joseph Finizio, blogs this week about the projected increase in attendance over 2008. Exhibitor numbers are holding steady and may exceed last year as well.

In this industry, like so many others, advantages are gained at the bottom of the cycle. While it’s always hard to pinpoint exactly when things will begin to turn around, we may read some optimism in RetailNOW. At the very least, their numbers indicate an industry-wide committment to increasing key capacities during the downtime. At best, they may be pointing to the early indications of an upswing.

Glen Hiemstra is a futurist speaker, consultant, blogger, internet video host and founder of Futurist.com. To arrange for a speech contact Futurist.com.

The cognitive dissonance comes for those of us who believe that the available evidence points in both of these directions simultaneously, that both tracks are emerging at the same time, and that we are in a kind of race to see which reality predominates. For example, I believe that a very rapid investment in next energy technologies is critical, and by this I mean most available alternatives to fossil fuels – solar, wind, ocean, thorium-based nuclear, geothermal. I also think that a shift in societal values in industrial countries is critical, toward a more localized, more frugal, and generally smarter life style. At the same time, I accept that it may be too late for some kind of gradual re-set of our energy ways, and that significant dislocations are possible, even probable.

So, when I come across evidence for one view or the other, I tend to find good evidence persuasive, even when it is contradictory.

A great example of this dissonance came across my screens today. First, I read as I do each Monday the weekly blog of James Kunstler. As usual he illustrates the bankruptcy of the view that with a few minor adjustments we will continue what he calls the happy motoring lifestyle into the infinite future. His blog, by the way, is at a new address, and is well worth the time each Monday. Those who comment on his blog tend to exemplify the people who think we are long past the point of no return and that a collapse is coming.

On the other hand, also coming into my screen today was a blog entry from The Oildrum, specifically a guest blog under the byline of “Gail the Actuary” in which an expert on space-based solar power explained how a new approach to the launch of vehicles may be able to cut the cost enough that space-based solar energy would become an answer, even the answer, to our future energy problems. Space-based solar arrays are one of those technologies that are always somewhere over the horizon, and some would say over the rainbow. If you take a few minutes to read this blog, and again the comments, you find the dissonance on full display. On the one hand you have a person saying that there may be an energy answer after fossil fuels. On the other hand you have lots of people not only saying it is not possible, but directly arguing that a human die-back is more desirable than cheap energy.

And so it goes.

At the end of the Fire 2009 conference, an audience member said he felt depressed, that the environmental problems discussed there seemed too large and the time seemed to late to respond. David Brin, the great science fiction writer, also in the audience, responded that we have to hope that humans come up with the breakthroughs, technological and social and values-based, that enable the enterprise of civilization to continue. The alternative is despair.

I thought this summed up things quite well.

Glen Hiemstra is a futurist speaker, consultant, blogger, internet video host and founder of Futurist.com. To arrange for a speech contact Futurist.com.

Dr. Kao is a former Harvard Business School professor, best known for his books Jamming: The art and discipline of business creativity, and Innovation Nation. His new project, the Institute for Large Scale Innovation, is sponsored by Deloitt LLP. The focus is on developing innovations that can be harnessed to address complex global challenges, as compared to the way we often think of innovation as an exciting new product. Large scale innovations do not have to be huge projects, but rather should have widespread effect and be “appropriately inclusive.”

The Institute plans to develop core programs that include…
…Supporting the emergence of a network of significant innovation leaders with the influence to provide a meaningful stewardship function for innovation at national and international levels.


…Developing agenda-setting intellectual capital that defines large-scale innovation and leads to the development of meaningful tools and best practices.


…Creating high quality learning experiences relevant to the next generation of innovation leaders.


…Underwriting research that documents the emerging global innovation economy, key innovation flows as well as new competitive dynamics and opportunities.

An initial conference was held last week in the Bay Area, a “Global Innovation Summit of the I20.” The Institute invited a group of innovation leaders from around the world to “create an agenda for global stewardship and collaboration regarding large-scale, societal innovation issues.”

We look forward to a report of the results of this summit meeting, and we continue conversations with Dr. Kao and the Institute regarding possible collaborations with Futurist.com.

As you may know I have been speaking about the future of housing, and community design, for some time, and particularly since September 2007 when I made a splash at the annual Washington Housing Conference. There, I was one of the early public voices warning that the housing finance bust was looming, and that it would be worse than acknowledged at the time.

This week, I am still considering just how to approach this event, but am more and more convinced of two things:

1. The housing finance crash was actually a result of four intersecting crises converging at the wrong time - the easy debt society, the end of a century of cheap energy, a demographic mis-match between what is being built and what is needed, and looming concern about climate change. All of these forces are combining to cause increasing numbers of people to reconsider where and how they live, and making old patterns of development potentially less viable.

2. The mis-match between the cost of houses we have been building, and the ability of wage earners to afford them without creative financing is not yet reconciled. We have a way to go before housing is affordable.

I will see where I go with this on Friday, but stop by if you have time.

Glen Hiemstra is a futurist speaker, consultant, blogger, internet video host and founder of Futurist.com. To arrange for a speech contact Futurist.com.

The first one, two actually, refers to a program that I helped to create with well known stress and anxiety expert Lucinda Bassett. She has developed and now has a available a 5-CD program called “The Solution .” I collaborated on the first CD in the series, all of which are designed to help you manage in the current stressful times.

Check out the Sun Herald.com and also Bio-Medicine.org

The second alert is from the Investors Business Daily. In an article entitled “Turn Your Team Around” the author quotes some material from my book Turning the Future Into Revenue, on the nature of creating a vision.

Check out Investors Business Daily

Glen Hiemstra is a futurist speaker, consultant, blogger, internet video host and founder of Futurist.com. To arrange for a speech contact Futurist.com.