Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

EUR/USD Lacking Direction

Alex Chernomordin — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 01:10:24 +0000

The EUR/USD has been a victim of market volatility and the chart below depicts this fact very effectively. This old perspective seems to still be playing in some ways with the former trendline support acting like strong resistance in the prior session and the 21 hour moving average looking top provide some support, as it has regularly in this ranging market. A break of the 21 hr should lead us toward the 100 hr moving average and possibly a push back over the 1.41 level, otherwise the 1.3750 support level comes into play.

Japan’s Domestic CGPI

Alex Chernomordin — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 23:50:42 +0000

In what promises to be a quiet Asian session, the lone data tonight is the Japanese infaltionary indicator, which has done little to move the market, the release was as follows:

CGPI (MoM) - Survey:-0.1% Actual:-0.3% Prior:-0.4%

CGPI (YoY) - Survey:-6.4% Actual:-6.6% Prior:-5.4%

July 09 2009 Evening Forex Report

Shawn Powell — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 20:47:59 +0000

Click here to view the embedded video.

Fed’s Stern on the newswires. Should not effect market

Greg Michalowski — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 18:35:36 +0000

IMPROVEMENT IN ECONOMY IS CLOSE AT HAND’
CURBING BUBBLES MAY MEAN HIGHER INTEREST RATES
EITERATES FED MUST DO MORE TO CURB ASSET PRICE BUBBLES
TREASURY PLAN OPENS SYSTEM TO SERIOUS INSTABILITY
CALLS TREASURY PLAN STATUS QUO PLUS
CRITICIZES TREASURY BANK REGULATION PLAN
SAYS TREASURY DOESN’T ADDRESS TOO BIG TO FAIL

US 30 year bond auction fairly lackluster. Bid to Cover ratio on the low side.

Greg Michalowski — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 17:08:59 +0000

30 Year Treasury Bond auction comes in with Bid to Cover Ratio of 2.36 Vs 2.68 last and 2.56 average over the last 5 reopenings

Indirect bidders take 50.2% of competitive bids
Bonds draw 4.303% with 67.9% alloted at the high
Median 4.230%, low 4.150%

Not all that great of an auction has led to lower stocks initially and some dollar buying. The reaction is still fairly muted. The 10 year auction went better yesterday. The 30 year bond is not the favored bond in the auction rotation.

The legs higher continue in the GBPUSD

Greg Michalowski — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 16:48:33 +0000

The GBPUSD broke another target and moved higher. This one was between the 1.6297 and the 1.6323 level. The break triggered more stops and the pair moved up to the 1.6379 level. The correction has taken the price back down toward the old high at 1.6323 (200 hour MA), but finding support against the level. The grind higher continues in the pair, but it is getting a bit overbought (see chart below).

July 09 2009 Forex Midday Report

Shawn Powell — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 16:20:43 +0000

Click here to view the embedded video.

EURUSD and GBPUSD moves above one resistance level, tests another

Greg Michalowski — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 15:46:28 +0000

EURUSD has moved above the 200 hour moving average resistance at the 1.4003 level. Stops hit in the EURUSD. Next target 1.4049 (high from July 7th.

At the same time, the GBPUSD is moving above the 38.2% retracement at the 1.6273 and looks to test the 1.6297 resistance level and above that the 1.6326 200 hour MA. See earlier post by clicking here.

Higher stock market, higher commodities hurting the dollar/benefits the currencies.

Japanese official reiterates view on dollar as reserve currency

Greg Michalowski — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 15:33:08 +0000

This a view echoed earlier. Japan officials seem to be concerned about the value of the USDJPY. The JPY has been stronger of late moving from a high of 101.43 in April to the low yesterday at 91.78 - the lowest level since February.

The feeling in Japan is that a stronger Yen will make the all important exports to the US more expensive and slow the economy as a result. Therefore, it is in their best interest to talk up the dollar and down the Yen. This may provide a floor on the USDJPY for the time being.

EURUSD fails to confirm the downside move and rebounds

Greg Michalowski — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 15:05:00 +0000

The EURUSD has failed on its attempt to the downside as the price found buyers against the 38.2% retracement level and bounced back higher (1.3946 low vs 1.3940 level). The failure to confirm the downside with a break of this level, led to buying and the price moved back above the 100 bar moving average (blue line). The NY session has been quiet. Price action is likely to be consolidative.

EURUSD moves back lower. Watch 100 bar MA as resistance now intraday

Greg Michalowski — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 14:38:24 +0000

The 1.3940 level remains support, but the intraday 100 bar moving average on the 5 minute chart has been broken. The intraday chart pattern is forming a Head and Shoulder formation as well.

Still watching for bearish confirmation from a move below the 1.3940 level and would like to see the price remain below the 100 bar MA at the 1.3962 level.

Wholesales Inventories fall 0.8%

Greg Michalowski — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 14:03:51 +0000

Sales increased by 0.2% for the month. As a result the Inventory to Sales ratio declined to 1.29 which is good news for a inventory correction going forward.

GBPUSD back down testing the 1.6187 level

Greg Michalowski — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 13:57:28 +0000

The key 1.6187 level was tested again in the GBPUSD (low 1.6191). The level is where both the 100 hour MA (100 hour MA comes in at 1.6182 currently) and the low from the consolidation period that contained the GBPUSD over the last month or so (before this week that is). The level should provide support.

The market was able to bounce off the level for the second time post the 7:00 AM interest rate decision. This suggests buyers against the support level. A move below should target lower levels in the pair as longs should liquidate.

German Finance minister on the newswire

Greg Michalowski — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 13:35:43 +0000

German Finance Minister Steinbrueck says Bundesbank may need to buy corporate bonds to ease lending. This has led to some pressure on the EURUSD. Note the Bundesbank has declined to comment on the Finance Ministers remarks.

The EURUSD has some intraday support at the the 1.3957 level (100 bar MA in chart above - blue line) and the 1.3940 level (38.2% retracement support level).

July 09 2009 Forex Market Update

Shawn Powell — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 13:32:11 +0000

Click here to view the embedded video.

After such a huge day in the Forex yesterday, its back to normal trading in the markets. Still a number of pairs moving well. We do some in depth analysis on the Euro, GBP, CHF and Yen pairs. If you need to open a trading account, you can click here