Forex Research Blog | FXTechstrategy

AUDUSD: Declines, Pressure Builds On The 0.9700/0.9663 Levels

noreply@blogger.com (mohammed isah) — Sun, 27 May 2012 19:00:00 +0000

AUDUSD: With the pair continuing to increase its downside momentum, the risk of returning to the 0.9663 level is beckoning. As long as the pair continues to trade below its key resistance at the 1.0000/1.0143 levels, we look for further downside momentum to occur. This will leave the risk for a move lower towards the 0.9700 level where a break will call for a run at the 0.9663 level and then the 0.9600 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the other hand, immediate resistance resides at the 0.9962 level where a reversal of roles is likely to occur. However, if this fails, the 1.0013 level and then the 1.0143 level will be targeted. Further out, resistance resides at the 1.0216 level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the downside in the medium term.

EURUSD: Extends Bearish Momentum, Pressure Builds On Key Support.

noreply@blogger.com (mohammed isah) — Sun, 27 May 2012 11:32:00 +0000

EURUSD: With EUR decisively violating the 1.2620 level the past week, it is entering the new week vulnerable. While holding below here, the risk is for it to weaken further possibly towards the 1.2479 level. A cut through there will allow for more declines towards the 1.2300 level and then its distant support located at the 1.2149 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Alternatively, the pair will have to break and hold above the 1.2824 level to annul its present downside and bring further upside gain towards the 1.3000 level. Further out, resistance resides at its April 14’2012 high at 1.3146. All in all, EUR remains biased to the downside medium term

Why Are You Concerned About Your Win/Loss Ratio?

noreply@blogger.com (mohammed isah) — Sat, 26 May 2012 21:45:00 +0000

First let’s define what a win/loss ratio is. Investopedia defines the win/loss ratio as: ”A ratio of the total number of winning trades to the number of losing trades.”

It does not take into account how much was won or lost, simply if they were winners or losers.

If you make ten trades and have six winners and four losses, your win/loss ratio is 6:4 or 3:2, or even 60%. Many new traders think this number is too low! Why do they think that? In my opinion one of the primary factors that make people think this number is too low is that they compare it to the same grading scale that they have had in their regular education experience.

...continue to read this article"Why Are You Concerned About Your Win/Loss Ratio?"

USDCHF – Rallies Through Key Resistance, Bullish Tone Set To Continue.

noreply@blogger.com (mohammed isah) — Sat, 26 May 2012 12:22:00 +0000

USDCHF: With the pair violating the 0.9499 level and slightly closing higher above the 0.9591 level, its Jan 2012 high on a rally the past week, its broader uptrend is set to continue. As long as USDCHF can hold above here, there is risk of further upside towards the 0.9650 level and then the 0.9772 level with a break of here aiming at its 200 ema at the 0.9954. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the downside, immediate support lies at the 0.9591 level followed by the 9500 level. A turn below here will pave the way for a run at the 0.9331 level. A reversal of roles as support is likely to occur here but if violated a relapse towards the 0.8929 level, its Feb 24’2012 low could happen. Further down, support comes in at the 0.8890 level, its Nov 03’2011 low. On the whole, the pair remains biased to the upside having resumed its uptrend.

EURJPY: Weakens, The 99.12 Level Beckons.

noreply@blogger.com (mohammed isah) — Fri, 25 May 2012 20:32:00 +0000

EURJPY-With EURJPY retaining its bearish bias and weakening, the risk is for it to decline further. A violation of the 99.12 level, its Feb 01’2012 low will push the cross further lower towards the 98.00 level, its psycho level and then the 97.02 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower. The alternative scenario will be for the cross to return to the 102.11 level with a cut through there allowing for more upside towards the 103.92 level and then the 104.60 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 107.99 level. All in all, EURJPY continues to hold on to its broader downside vulnerability

GBPJPY: Maintains Its Broader Downside Bias.

noreply@blogger.com (mohammed isah) — Fri, 25 May 2012 10:19:00 +0000

GBPJPY – Having continued to hold on to its broader downside GBPJPY looks to target the 124.63 level. This if seen will call for move lower towards the 123.22 level followed by the 122.80 level and then the 122.02 level, its Jan 25’2012 high. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the upside, a return above the 126.43 level must occur to annul its present weakness and turn upside risk towards the 127.08 level. Further out, resistance resides at 128.84 level. All in all, the cross continues to hold on to its short term weakness.

EURUSD: Extends Downside Momentum, Holds Firmly Below Broken Support.

noreply@blogger.com (mohammed isah) — Thu, 24 May 2012 19:43:00 +0000

EURUSD: With EUR taking out its key support at the 1.2620 level and weakening, the risk is for it to extend that weaken in the days ahead. This will open the door for a run at the 1.2479 level, July 04’2010 low with a cut through there allowing for further declines towards the 1.2300 level, its psycho level and then its distant support located at the 1.2149 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Alternatively, the pair will have to break and hold above the 1.2824 level to annul its present downside and bring further upside gain towards the 1.3000 level. Father out, resistance resides at its April 14’2012 high at 1.3146. All in all, EUR remains biased to the downside medium term.

EURGBP: Bearish Medium Term, Eyes The 0.7949 Level.

noreply@blogger.com (mohammed isah) — Thu, 24 May 2012 13:21:00 +0000

EURGBP- We continue to hold our downside bias on EURGBP as we look for it to decline further towards the 0.7949 level. A breach of here will turn focus to the 0.7840 level. A decisive clearance of this level will open the door for a run at the 0.7750 level with a cut through here paving the way for a move lower towards its Oct 2008 low at 0.7691. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Alternatively, the cross will have to break and hold above the 0.8101 level and the 0.8197 level to resume its recovery. This will pave the way for push higher towards the 0.8218 level and then the 0.8275 level followed by the 0.8423 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 0.8504 level, its Feb 2012 high. All in all, the cross continues to hold on to its medium term bias despite its recovery attempts.

EURUSD: Bearish, Threatens Further Downside Momentum.

noreply@blogger.com (mohammed isah) — Wed, 23 May 2012 12:37:00 +0000

EURUSD: Having reversed its corrective recovery, the pair is on the verge of resuming its broader weakness. This will open the door for a run at the 1.2620 level, its Jan 2012 low. Further down, support stands at the 1.2587 level followed by the 1.2479 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Alternatively, the pair will have to break and hold above the 1.2824 level to annul its present downside and bring further upside gain towards the 1.3000 level. Father out, resistance resides at its April 14’2012 high at 1.3146. All in all, EUR remains biased to the downside medium term.

AUDUSD: Reverses Gain, Set To Recapture The 0.9663 Level.

noreply@blogger.com (mohammed isah) — Tue, 22 May 2012 20:11:00 +0000

AUDUSD: The pair has reversed its one-day recovery and now looks to resume its broader medium term downtrend. This development now leaves AUDUSD targeting further declines towards the 0.9750 level where a violation will call for more weakness towards the 0.9663 level, its Nov 2011 low. A cut through here will extend weakness towards the 0.9485 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Alternatively, the pair will have to break and hold above the 0.9934 level to annul its present declines and bring further upside gains towards the 1.0000 level, its psycho level. A turn above there will turn focus to the 1.0143 levels and then the 1.0216 level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the downside in the medium term on further declines.

EURGBP: Holds On To Recovery Tone.

noreply@blogger.com (mohammed isah) — Tue, 22 May 2012 14:41:00 +0000

EURGBP- With the cross continuing to hold on to its upside recovery, there is risk of further correction higher. However, the 0.8197 level and the 0.8218 level will have to give way to suggest a bottom is in place for a run further upside towards the 0.8275 level and then the 0.8423 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 0.8504 level, its Feb 2012 high. On the downside, a return below the 0.7949 level will annul its present upside attempts and bring further weakness the 0.7840 level. A decisive clearance of this level will open the door for a run at the 0.7750 level with a cut through here paving the way for a move lower towards its Oct 2008 low at 0.7691. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further declines. All in all, the cross continues to hold on to its medium term bias despite its recovery attempts.

Dollar Index: Halts Upside Momentum, Triggers A Correction.

noreply@blogger.com (mohammed isah) — Mon, 21 May 2012 20:51:00 +0000

US Dollar Index: With the Index halting its strength and triggering a corrective pullback for a second day in a row, the risk is for more downside to occur. However, the Index continues to hold its broader medium term upside bias suggesting its present weakness is temporary. An extension of the mention declines will call for a run at its May 14’2012 high at 80.35 level with a cut through here targeting its psycho level at 80.00 level. Further down, support lies at its Feb 06’2012 low at 78.36 level followed by the 77.97 level. On the upside, the 81.78 level, its Jan 2012 high comes in as the next upside with a clearance of here setting the stage for more strength towards the 83.55 level, its Aug’2011 high and possibly higher targeting the 84.55 level. All in all, the Index continues to retain its medium term upside bias though backing off higher prices.

USDCAD: Retains Upside Bias, Sets Up For The 1.0284 Level.

noreply@blogger.com (mohammed isah) — Mon, 21 May 2012 13:43:00 +0000

USDCAD: With USDCAD building up on its upside offensive the past week and maintaining its bullish bias, there risk of further strengthen towards the 1.0250 level. A cut through here will call for a move higher towards the 1.0284 level, its Jan 13’2012 low. Further out, resistance resides at the.0317 level followed by the 1.0423 level, its Dec 14’2011 high. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the downside, on any pullback, the 1.0145 level will be targeted with a push below there allowing for a run at the 1.0048/51 levels. A reversal of roles as support is likely to occur here and set the stage for a move higher. But if this fails, more declines could follow towards the 0.9798 level and then the 0.9724 level, its Aug 31'2011 low. All in all, the pair remains biased to upside on further strength.

GBPJPY: Takes Out The 127.08 Level, Set To Weaken Further.

noreply@blogger.com (mohammed isah) — Sun, 20 May 2012 21:32:00 +0000

GBPJPY – With the cross violating its key support located at 127.08 level to close lower the past week, further declines are expected in the new week. Further down, support lies at the 124.50 level and then the 122.02 level, its Jan 25’2012 high. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further weakness. On the upside, the cross will have to break and hold above the 127.08 level and then the 131.77 level, its April 25’2012 high to end its present weakness. This will bring further gains towards the 133.46 level. Further out, the 135.09 level comes in as the next resistance. All in all, the cross remains biased to the downside as it looks to weaken further.

EURUSD: Retains Its Medium Term Downside, Extends Downside Momentum.

noreply@blogger.com (mohammed isah) — Sun, 20 May 2012 12:40:00 +0000

EURUSD: The broader risk continues to point lower despite its Friday recovery. With that said, we see risk targeting the 1.2640/20 levels. Further down, support stands at the 1.2587 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Alternatively, a follow through higher on the back of its Friday recovery could see the pair targeting the 1.2902 level where a violation will set the stage for a run at the 1.3000 level, its psycho level. Other resistance levels are located at the 1.3282 level and the 1.3387 level. All in all, EUR remains biased to the downside medium term.

USDCHF – Holds On To Upside Bias But Vulnerable.

noreply@blogger.com (mohammed isah) — Sat, 19 May 2012 22:07:00 +0000

USDCHF: Although USDJPY continues to hold on to its recovery tone while holding above the 0.9334 level, it faces the risk of a turn lower. This is coming on the back of a hammer candle formation the past week. However, it will have to break back below the 0.9334 level to end its upside risk and bring more declines towards the 0.9041 level with a cut through there allowing for more declines towards the 0.8929 level, its Feb 24’2012 low. Further down, support comes in at the 0.8890 level, its Nov 03’2011 low where a breach will call for further declines towards the 0.8700 level, its psycho level. The alternative scenario will be a return to the 0.9499 level where a violation will call for a run at the 0.9591 level. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the whole, the pair remains biased to the upside while holding above the 0.9334 level.

USDJPY: Further Weakness Envisaged.

noreply@blogger.com (mohammed isah) — Fri, 18 May 2012 10:34:00 +0000

USDJPY: With USDJPY breaking below the 79.42 level, the risk is for it to decline further. This now sets the stage for a run at the 79.00 level. A decisive cut through here will allow for more weakness towards the 78.18/27 levels. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower support this view. On the other hand, the pair will have to break and hold above the 80.60 level and the 81.77 level to signal that a bottom is in place. This will bring further upside towards the 82.53 level. Its daily RSI has turned higher supporting this view. All in all, as long as USDJPY continues to trade and hold below the 80.60/81.77 levels, its broader risk remains lower.

EURJPY: Sells Off, Targets Its Psychologocal Support At 100.00.

noreply@blogger.com (mohammed isah) — Thu, 17 May 2012 15:44:00 +0000

EURJPY- Our outlook on EURJPY remains lower as it continues to weaken and targeting further declines. This suggests further price extension could see EURJPY targeting the 100.00 level , its psycho level. A turn below here will set the stage for more weakness towards the 99.23 level where a violation will call for a run at the 98.54 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the upside, the cross will have to break and hold above the 104.60 level to reverse its bear threats and bring further recovery towards the 106.23 level where a breach will aim at the 107.99 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 111.42/52 levels. Above here if seen will resume its broader medium term uptrend towards the 112.34 level. All in all, EURJPY continues to hold on to its downside vulnerability.

GBPJPY: Maintains Its Bearish Momentum.

noreply@blogger.com (mohammed isah) — Thu, 17 May 2012 11:49:00 +0000

GBPJPY – With continued downside weakness seen, the cross looks to hold on to its broken support and weaken further. In such a case, its key support standing at the 126.53 level will be targeted on further declines with a cut through here aiming at the 125.45 level followed by the 124.50 level and then the 122.02 level, its Jan 25’2012 high. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. The alternative scenario will be for it to return above 131.77 level, leaving the cross targeting its big resistance residing at the 133.46 level. A clearance of here will resume its medium term uptrend towards the 135.09 level. Further upside offensive above here will call for a run at 136.97 level. All in all, the cross continues to hold on to its short term weakness.

GBPUSD: Takes Out Key Support, Set To Recapture The 1.5805 Level.

noreply@blogger.com (mohammed isah) — Wed, 16 May 2012 18:25:00 +0000

GBPUSD: With the pair selling off and breaking below its medium term rising trendline, further bearishness is expected in the days ahead. On continued weakness, GBP will target the 1.5805 level, April 05’2012 low with a violation of there allowing for more weakness towards the 1.5642/53 levels, its Feb 14/15’2012 lows. A breach of here if seen will aim at the 1.5497 level, its Jan 10’2012 high. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. The alternative scenario is for the pair to halt its weakness and then return above its trendline. This will target the 1.6180 level with a turn above here calling for a run at the 1.6293 level, its weekly 200 ema. Further out, resistance lies at the 1.6451 level. On the whole, the pair continues to hold on to its downside pressure having violated its rising trendline.

USDCHF – Builds On Its Recovery, Eyes The 0.9591 Level.

noreply@blogger.com (mohammed isah) — Wed, 16 May 2012 03:21:00 +0000

USDCHF: With USDCHF breaking and hold above its key resistance at the 0.9331 level, it now looks to extend further upside gains towards the 0.9504 level, its Jan 13’2012 low. A break of here will call for a run at the 0.9591 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the downside, support lies at the 0.9331 level. A reversal of roles as support is likely to occur. Below here will leave the pair relapsing to the 0.8929 level, its Feb 24’2012 low. Further down, support comes in at the 0.8890 level, its Nov 03’2011 low where a breach will call for further declines towards the 0.8700 level, its psycho level. On the whole, the pair remains biased to the upside having resumed its uptrend.

Dollar Index: Rallies, Pressure Builds On Key Resistance.

noreply@blogger.com (mohammed isah) — Tue, 15 May 2012 21:02:00 +0000

Dollar Index: Rallies, Pressure Builds On Key Resistance.
US Dollar Index: With continued rally seeing the Index strengthening and holding above its broken resistance, it remains biased to the upside towards its key resistance at the 81.78 level, its Jan 2012 high. A clearance of here will set the stage for more strength towards the 83.55 level, its Aug’2011 high and possibly higher targeting the 84.55 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On any pullback, the index will aim at the 80.73 level with a breach turning focus to its Feb 06’2012 low at 78.36 level followed by the 77.97 level and then the 76.71 level. All in all, the Index continues to retain its medium term upside bias.

EURUSD: Weakens, Retains Its Bearishness Medium Term.

noreply@blogger.com (mohammed isah) — Tue, 15 May 2012 16:46:00 +0000

EURUSD: Having continued to weaken and hold below the 1.2993 level, the risk is for EUR to decline further towards the 1.2733 level, its Jan 18 2012 low. A decisve clearance of here will extend bear presssure towards the 1.2620 level, its Jan 2012 low and then the 1.2587 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Alternatively, the pair will have to break and hold above the 1.3387 level to end its broader weakness and turn attention to the 1.3484 level. A cut through here will push the pair further higher towards its Dec 02’2011 high at 1.3547. Further out, price extension if seen will aim at its weekly 200 ema at 1.3642. All in all, EUR remains biased to the downside medium term though facing bear threats.

USDCAD: Hesitating With Downside Bias.

noreply@blogger.com (mohammed isah) — Tue, 15 May 2012 12:28:00 +0000

USDCAD: We continue to hold onto our downside view on USDCAD as it trades below its key resistance at the 1.0048/51 levels. While holding below here, there is risk of a relapse to the 0.9804 level, its Sept 19’2011 and the 0.9806 level. Further down, support lies at the 0.9779 level, its Sept 16’2011 low followed by the 0.9724 level, its Aug 31'2011 low. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the upside, the pair will have to climb back above the 1.0048/51 levels to annul its broader bearishness and bring further gains towards the 1.0146 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 1.0250 level and then the.0317 level. All in all, the pair remains vulnerable to the downside on further declines.

CRUDE OIL: Bears Remain Firmly In Control.

noreply@blogger.com (mohammed isah) — Mon, 14 May 2012 21:19:00 +0000

CRUDE OIL: With Crude Oil weakening and holding below its broken support at the 96.67 level, further decline is envisaged. In such a case, the 93.40 level will be aimed at with a loss of there turning risk to the 90.00 level, its psycho level and possibly lower towards the 88.00 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further weakness. On the upside, in order for Crude Oil to halt its present weakness and resume its broader uptrend, it will have to return above the 106.44 level and the 108.65 level. A breach of here will set the stage for a move towards the 110.55 level, its Mar 02’2012 high. Further out, resistance resides at the 115.00 level. All in all, Crude Oil continues to maintain its bearishness momentum as it looks to decline further.