I'm showing the weekly charts this week as the candles/bars may be very relevant.

USDindex - No real directional bias

EUR/USD - Will last weeks top hold?

GBP/USD - Indication of at least a potential temporary top

USD/CAD - Reversal still in vogue

EUR/JPY - last weeks rejection candle is hard to ignore

With June coming to an end as the second quarter just prior to the 4th of July weekend, high volatility is certainly expected. Most traders and fund managers will be taking profit or cutting losses to close out the first half of the year on all markets. Bear in mind that the stock markets have put in an incredible performance in this second quarter and profit taking may trigger a sudden correction.

As far as currencies go; the ranges are getting tighter and should give way to some sort of break. The question still remains; will there be further USD weakness prior to some overdue strengthening.

USD Index - Door is still open to a double bottom suggesting fresh tops are possible on the EUR and GBP.

EUR/USD - New top is possible

GBP/USD - A break above 1.67 opens the door to 1.70

USD/CAD - The poor performing CAD may recover some but further upside in the chart is expected medium to long term

EUR/JPY - The pair appears to have topped however the short term suggest upside in the cards for now. A break above 1.3928 sends the pair higher. However the breach of the lower trend-line could send the pair to a new low.

This week is no different. Overall I still favor USD strength in the longer term, however in the short to medium term, momentum could shift either way.

Virtually all USD pairs have been moving in a choppy manner. In such cases this can equally signal the beginning of a trend or simply a final correction prior to a terminal thrust.

The last 10 days of the month should provide either a final thrust up or an accelerated continuation.

What I have attempted to do in this week's report is; identify where the reversal/break-outs should occur.

Cheers and good trading this week.

And in fact, counts could require updating as the move up is still not clearly a reversal and may still be some sort of correction before a return to new lows.

What I do believe is that if the alternate count is played out that the downside will eventually give way to an overall turn that will last for several weeks.

The Dollar is oversold and as we go deeper into this territory the potential for a larger reversal increases.

So be patient and look for opportunities that are clear.

Key levels to watch this week are 81.50 and 78.32

Cheers and good trading.

So... is this now the turn?

As always, I see things as probabilities as no one has a crystal ball. Having said that; the move is very strong which is a good piece of evidence to consider. The channel resistance has also been broken so this adds to the possibility. What I am looking for now is a short term top with a 3 wave retracement back to fibonacci support and then a renewed action towards USD strength.

Whatever happens with the USD will translate into all other pairs, as we know that the USD has become the proxy for all currencies during these still very uncertain times.

• Potential Elliott Wave count suggests we are in the last 5 wave cycle
• Trend is over-extending at the bottom of the channel
• Indicators suggest oversold
• COT (Commitment of Traders) at extremes
• Trends are time mature

There is a likelihood of continued bear action to begin the week however evidence continues to mount that the current cycles are due for a sharp flip. My thought is once the sentiment changes it will bring on a strong counter trend.

Cheers and good trading.

EUR/USD

Similar to the index... where will the turn come?

GBP/USD

After a sudden reversal and then dramatic new high this pair is also over-bought but resistance also difficult to identify.

EUR/JPY

Recent price action looks corrective, and because this pair has struggled to make a new recent top I would speculate the risk is to the downside.

USD/Index

There is still room for weakness however the move is oversold.

EUR/USD

Has this topped? or is there one more top to come?

GBP/USD

This pair is also at a potential topping point

USD/CAD

The recent move up looks corrective and leave this pair open to one more attempt at a new low. I would look for a double bottom here.

EUR/JPY

There is a key trend-line that if broken should provide longer term direction. I don't think a long term bottom is in place so risk is to the downside.

Most Dollar pairs are showing potential signs of  further reversal so it is difficult to access whether this is a trend change or just a pause in further USD weakness. I would suggest we may see prices struggle in a range for the beginning of the week and then the possibility of blow-off tops and bottoms on many pairs.

$Index

The price action has broken an important trend-line and is now subject to many possibilities.

EUR/USD

Some correction to start the week. I would expect at least one good push upwards riding on the momentum of the previous break-out; However I don't have a sense of the target.

GBP/USD

Here, I wonder if a top is in place or just how close one is at hand. Still a push upward is not out of the equation.

USD/CAD

Here a bottom is likely to form soon. The question is if it will break the barrier at 1.1500

EUR/JPY

Is this a top or just a pause before further rise?

I think caution is called for and an expectation that a sudden swing in sentiment may be at hand in either direction.

USDIndx

Here where there is a technical gap and yet price action as seen in the last daily candle, suggest the opposite.

EUR/USD

Similar circumstance of opposing technical implications.

GBP/USD

Bumping up against a very important barrier of $1.50

USD/CAD

A little more follow through to the downside is likely but I would say the end of the run is near - Look for a reversal to form some time this week

EUR/JPY

An impressive reversal - How long can it go without a correction?

Early last week I posted in my blog an Elliott Wave count that may be playing out. Please visit: http://blogs.fxstreet.com/disciplined/2009/04/20/possible-track-for-eurusd-longer-term/ 

Here are the charts for this week

USD/Index

There is a definite 'technical 'gap' that is looking ripe to be filled.

EUR/USD

Retrace and continuation are more likely here than an outright reversal.

GBP/USD

A new daily high here could cause a triple top

EUR/JPY

Most recent Daily candle is more bullish then bearish but is not an outright rejection.

USD/CAD

More potential of CAD strength then weakness. (USD/CAD drop)

We are reaching an area where if broken, acceleration of USD strength could ensue. Having said that, we have not yet crossed over that point, however the break points should be strongly observed.

I would expect some retracement starting the week but I am looking for further USD strength as the main theme for the week.

Cheers

Dollar Index.

Ended the week very strong and suggests continuation.

EUR/USD

As with the index the strong finish to the week should result in a continuation, albeit following some retracement.

GBP/USD

The GBP has held up better so the action here may continue in a choppy manner

USD/CAD

Remember that of the G8 Canada has immerged as having one of the best banking systems and this may in turn cause the CAD to hold up better then the rest against the USD

EUR/JPY

This pair has broken out of it's rising trend channel and may now be back on it's way down

USD Index.

Not much to go on.

EUR/USD

Friday's low has been rejected. A little upside to start the week perhaps.

GBP/USD

Choppy price action suggest correction which (when complete) should give way to an upside thrust

EUR/JPY

Here we have a strong rejection which could be a potential top.

USD/CAD

The lower trend-line is an important pivot point

USD Index

EUR/USD - My bias is to the upside but my conviction is not at all strong

GBP/USD - With the break of the trend-line the upside possibility is strong. However some retracement may happen first.

USD/CAD - It hard to tell if we will re-visit the lower trend-line however it seems to be the most reasonable assumption

Cheers and good trading

Dollar Index.

Not at all clear on direction.

EUR/USD

A break from 1.3260 should provide direction

GBP/USD

Trend-line rejection seems strong

USD/JPY

I'm expecting one last thrust downward however I'm not clear if the pair has topped.

Cheers and may you have a prosperous week of trading.

Pierre