Saudi Arabia’s oil exports may start to fall in 2014 after it reaches maximum production capacity of 12.5 million barrels a day and domestic consumption grows, Chatham House said in a report.

“Once production levels off at a plateau, exports will decline” as local demand rises, the London-based think tank said in report titled “Ending Dependence: Hard Choices for Oil- Exporting States.” Current Saudi output capacity is 11.3 million barrels a day, Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said June 30.

While production may hold steady for decades, the kingdom’s exports may fall as more oil is diverted to the local market. The Saudi economy absorbed 20 percent of the country’s oil output in 2006, Chatham House said, citing data from BP Plc’s Statistical Review and national statistics. The report didn’t estimate a figure for future demand. Local consumption rose 7 percent last year to 2.15 million barrels a day, BP data show.

To ensure the Saudi economy keeps growing, other sources of income will be needed to replace oil revenue, which may plateau by the middle of the next decade, according to the report’s authors John Mitchell from the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies and Dundee University Emeritus Professor Paul Stevens. Saudi Arabia, Iran and Nigeria will stop exporting oil by 2040, the researchers said.

Oil output from Iran, Kuwait and Nigeria, whose production capacity represents more than a quarter of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ total, will level off as soon as 2010, the report said. Oil exports may last longer if producing nations scrap domestic fuel subsidies to reduce energy use or adopt renewable energy.

With oil at $100 a barrel, which the authors take as a floor price, Saudi Arabia’s hydrocarbons revenue will fail to cover its fiscal deficit from 2030 onwards, they said. Iran’s oil income will cover its expenses until 2025, and Kuwait’s until 2040, according to the report.

Bloomberg Report

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British Petroleum has castigated the finance ministry for not keeping its commitment of giving tax breaks to both oil and gas production saying the move will harm India’s brand as an investor friendly country.

Though the Cabinet had guaranteed income tax exemption on oil and gas production from areas awarded under New Exploration Licensing Policy, the finance ministry is of the view the fiscal incentives are only meant for oil.

BP Group Managing Director and Chief Executive Iain Conn wrote to Petroleum Minister Murli Deora: “The provision of a tax holiday is a key fiscal incentive to attract investors to explore in high risk areas in the Indian basins. Any decision on the withdrawal of such incentive would send conflicting signals to investors,”

Bids for 57 blocks on offer in the seventh international auction round under Nelp are due on June 30 and the petroleum ministry fears “poor response” in view of the tax controversy.

The finance ministry believes that the term mineral oil for the purpose of giving tax holidays includes production of only crude oil. It choose to ignore the fact that same tax incentives under the same act had been promised to producers of gas from below the coal seams (coal bed methane) where no oil can ever occur.

“It (withdrawal of tax breaks) also has the potential to harm India’s brand as an investor-friendly country if this was to be applied retrospectively to blocks, which were entered into on the basis of a 7-year tax holiday being granted,” he wrote.

Finance Minister P Chidambaram announced his version of the tax breaks in his Budget speech for 2008-09 and wants to apply it all areas awarded since 1999.

BP was awarded a coal bed methane (CBM) block in West Bengal in the third round of bidding for CBM blocks through a competitive bidding process.

“BP was encouraged by the terms of the CBM round and in particular considered the 7-year tax holiday as a favourable basis on which to submit a bid,” BP’s South Asia Exploration Director Jonathan Evans wrote in a separate letter.

Pointing that BP participated in Nelp-V and VI bid rounds, and was evaluating bidding in NELP-VII, Conn wrote that it was imperative that the provision of 7-year tax holiday from the date of commercial production of natural gas is restored.

Deora has also written to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh seeking his intervention on the issue but there has been no clarification from the finance ministry so far.

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• UNITED STATES: The Crude Oil High Prices and George Walter Bush [.pdf]