Every loss hurts, and this one hurts pretty bad, especially since the Bengals squandered several opportunities to win this game.

Having the ball go in and out of Jerome Simpson’s hands on a 3rd and 8 that not only would’ve given us a first down, but it would’ve also put us in field goal range…

Getting just a field goal after a fumble recovery within Denver territory…

And missing on that 2-point conversion…

All of that added up to the loss, along with other miscues. But really, I like this Bengals team. I may even Like Like them. I mean, asking it to go steady. Every Sunday at 1:00 (or rarely at 4:15), I want to watch this team.

It’s exciting to watch A.J. Green and Jerome Simpson making great catches.   .   Andy Dalton showing great leadership and making great, precise throws. The defense comes up huge at times.

Of course there are inconsistencies, but who’d've expected anything different?

The entire AFC North is now at 1-1. Let’s go Bengals!

This was definitely Bizzaro World for the Bengals today.

To wit:

1. Bengals Start Strong. The Bengals haven’t started a game strong since the Carter administration.  Okay, maybe not that bad, but it seems like it.  The Bengals lead 13-0 at one point.  I let myself feel good about the lead.  I should’ve known.

2.  Bengals Give up the Lead. Okay, this one is not so Bizzaro.  The defense, which looked really strong in the first quarter, all of a sudden let Colt McCoy look like Joe Montana.  In all fairness, McCoy through the ball well, but the defensive secondary suddenly became a sieve.  Browns score 17 unanswered points.  Malaise sets it.

3.  Second Half Starts, Gradkowski in.  I saw Bruce Gradkowski and I wanted to cry.  The announcers saw Gradkowski come in and incredulously (stupidly?) said something like, “But Andy Dalton played well!”  Then the other announcer probably smacked him over the head and they show the clip of Dalton gettin’ pancaked at the end of the half.  With Gradkowski in, the Bengals punt the ball four times in a row.  I thought we were doomed.

4.  The Rain.  Not only were we punting the ball like mad, the rain starts to pour.  The astute announcers say, “Looks like this could have an impact on the outcome of the game.”  My stomach churns in assent.  We punt again.  Again, I thought we were doomed.

5.  Bruce “Heads Up” Gradkowski:  No one in the stadium was ready for this play, especially the cameramen.  I don’t even remember what the hell the down and distance were.  The Browns were still in the huddle and the Bengals snap the ball.  Bruce throws a perfect pass to previously frustrated A.J. Green.  Hell, I didn’t even know what was happening.  All I saw during the live broadcast was the ball in the air and then a touchdown.  It was beautiful.

6.  Defense Goes from Sieve to Lock Down.  Great job by the Bengals to bear down on the Browns, especially by Mr. Sack Master (giggle) Carlos Dunlap.  They won’t be elite, but they won’t be the Achilles heel, either.

This was a game that had a Bengals Loss all over it.  Losing the starting QB.  Backup QB comes in, looks pretty bad.  A.J. Green is frustrated all day and then is redeemed by the TD catch.  Jermaine Gresham had a drop or two, but makes some great catches.  Andy Dalton started out great.  Benson seals the deal with 121 yards and a TD.  According to Joe Reedy, the X-rays are negative and should be back next week.

Dare I be excited about the Bengals?

Maybe a little bit.

One game at time, as the cliche goes.

This game started out as a microcosm of what seems to be the Bengals M.O.: Andy Dalton starts out 0-5, with several over-/mis-throws, an interception, including an awful fumble peppered in there.

It was paaaaaaainful.

I mean, paaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaainful.

Even on some of the good throws that Dalton had, people were dropping them. A. J. Green, of all people, had two drops. I thought this guy could catch greased pigs catapulted from the sky. Sure, you could say that the rain may have factored in the drops/fumbles (this sounds very familiar to that 2009 regular season debacle…), but, really, I don’t want to make that excuse for them.

Suddenly, after the first three or four drives induced more pain than watching locally produced commercials (having a granny dance to hip-hop music… Man, NO ONE has thought of THAT before), something seemed to click.  Dalton’s throws were crisper.  Receivers starting catching the ball.  No, I didn’t start looking for Super Bowl tickets, but at least they were doing… something.  Positive, that is.

The best play of the night by Dalton? 3rd and 9.  Blitz coming.  Dalton showed great poise and threw a tight spiral directly to Andre Caldwell for 11 yards.  The drive eventually sputtered (as it seemed like too many did), but it was a heck of a throw in the face of pressure.  I think Dalton actually played better than the receivers did for most of the game.  He did over throw them a few times, and one of those led to an INT, but he was victimized by more drops, which I hope (and expect) won’t be the case throughout the year.

But really, I was very encouraged because the Bengals weren’t discouraged.  Especially Dalton.  It may not be pretty this year, but the kid has a lot of fight in him.

Other Notes:

-  Bengals Preseason T.V.: Stop.  Using. That. Stupid. Tiger. Roar. For. Every. Stupid. Transition.  God. Damn. It.

- Defense!  Looked good! Made some great stops on the run.  Pass D may be a little spotty, but the pass rush looked pretty good.  Michael Johnson had some Dwight Freeney-esque moves to the QB.

-  Kevin “Mr. Cincinnati” Huber:  He can sure boot the hell out of the ball.  77 yard kick.  Boo.  Yow.

-  Run Game:  Not as effective this game, but Brian Leonard had some nice catch and runs.

-  Offensive Line:  Better protection this time around than last game, but it’s still a work in progress.

If you have an questions, comments, suggestions, complaints, you can email David Jacob at djacob@gearupforsports.com. You can also join his facebook group, and/or follow him at http://twitter.com/HoldenCarraway.

The Good:

-  Andy Dalton bounced back from probably the worst start that a Bengals fan could imagine.  Really, Dalton’s first two passes were his worst.  After that, every time he had a chance to throw the ball, he threw very accurately.  Even the incompletion to Jerome Simpson was a nice throw that Simpson did catch, but he was pushed out of bounds.  A lesser person would’ve caved after throwing an INT on his first professional throw, but Dalton didn’t lose his head and he bounced back nicely.  I like him.  He at least wants to be a Bengal.  I think.

- Cedric Benson:  Running with purpose.  The dude had some nice runs.  I don’t know if he saw any cops running after him or not, but he looked quick, fast, strong like bull.  I like him.

-  Receivers:  A.J. Green, Jerome Simpson, Jordan Shipley, Jermaine Gresham — all of these guys caught all the balls that were thrown within their vicinity.  Simpson needs to make sure he keeps his mouth shut and let his play do the talking, but he played really well, including a good block for A.J. Green.

The Bad:

-  Defense:  Looked looser than the girls that The Situation goes after.  Really.  Really.  Really. Bad.  Not much pressure on the QB.  Matthew Stafford abused the Bengals secondary like Anthony Munoz abuses his announcing duties (if you didn’t watch the game… your life has been enriched (did I have to tell you that?  No, not really).  But seriously, Munoz had this gem: “Dan Skuta… well, he’s just skootin’ along.  Skootin’ Skuta.  He’s just skootin’ along.”  Baaaaaaaaaaaaarf!!!!  I love ya’, Munoz, but… make sure your Furniture Fair contract doesn’t run out soon).   The defense had a few good stops… sprinkled in with some wince-inducing gaffes.  They need to perform better.

- Bruce Gradkowski:  Not giving us much hope over Dalton.  He did make a few good throws, and in all fairness he didn’t have much time to throw the ball at times.  Still, the Bengals probably won’t be making the playoffs with either QB, so you might as well start the rook.

-  Mike “Ted” Nugent:  You make the 42 yard once, but you can’t make it again when it counts?  Booooooo!

- Flags:  Granted, the Lions got flagged more in the first half (because they’re a bunch of douchebag, meanie thugs and their mother dresses them funny!), but the Bengals had some plays called back by flags.  What hurt the most was during the one actually good drive that the Bengals had.  Brian Leonard had a nice catch-and-run negated by a holding call.  The call was questionable, but it still pissed me off.  And that’s all that matters.

The M’eh:

-  Offensive Line:  Some solid protection, and then not so solid protection.  Anthony Munoz definitely pointed out a time where Andre Smith missed a chance to level a defensive back.  Smith gave him a love-tap shove that would’ve been awesome if this were flag football.  The line also gave up a sack within the first 0.2 seconds after the ball was snapped when Dalton was the QB.  You can’t have your rookie QB being body slammed into the ground every other play.  The line needs to perform better.

The Ugly:

-  Really, you’re going to fumble the kickoff, whoever the hell you were? Nameless GD rookie.  Really?  I mean, damn.  Once he lost that ball, it didn’t even phase me.  I gave a little chuckle.  It’s just another Bungled play by the Bengals.

-  The Sequence:  INT, Overthrow, Sack.  Really inauspicious beginning to Dalton’s career.  But as noted above, he did bounce back.

-  The Bengals did everything they could to justify their number 32 ranking by ESPN.  But it’s just the preseason, and I like the poise that Dalton showed after the horrendous start.  The defense needs to step it up or this will be a looooong season.

If you have an questions, comments, suggestions, complaints, you can email David Jacob at djacob@gearupforsports.com. You can also join his facebook group, and/or follow him at http://twitter.com/HoldenCarraway.

1. A.J. Green is the real deal.

A.J. Green makes another catch over a DB.

Every other analyst has said it, and I will just reiterate this sentiment in case anyone thought other writers were blowing smoke up your bum. But really, Green is pretty awesome. The ball is thrown, and he catches it. Other players may try to prevent him, but he catches it. I think this is a fundamental attribute for a good passing game.

The one thing about Green is that the dude is thin as hell. He looks like Slim Henry 2.0, except you can tell that the due is ripped, like Bruce Lee style. Slim Henry, however, just looked thin. But both of them seem to have an uncanny ability to 1) Jump and 2) Catch. Green can adjust on the fly and he made some nice catches on some bad balls. Which, whether or not we have Carson Palmer starting this year or not (oh yeah, holding my breath… speaking of Palmer, I saw a dude wearing a “Free Carson” shirt.  Ha!  Like that’ll happen.), it looks like we’ll have some poorly thrown balls this year. More on Andy Dalton later.

2. Other receivers are fine, too.

I was somewhat disappointed that I didn’t see many spectacular catches by other receivers, namely Simpson, Jerome. But other dudes, like Jermaine Gresham and Andre Caldwell, caught balls thrown in their general direction. We have receivers that catch balls! Nice. I was worried about this season, too.

3. Andy Dalton is…

A nice guy. He went to Texas Christian. He’s a devout dude. He can throw the football. I saw him throw it several times. The footballs had spirals…

Super Bowl!

4. New Flash: Mike Zimmer likes to cuss.

If you go to camp, and you are a father like yours truly, don’t bring kids who pay attention to the action and are not deaf. Okay, it’s not extremely bad. The f-bombs are only peppered in every 10-15 minutes or so.

5. If you go bring the following:

- Bottled water.
- A roster that goes by jersey numbers.
- Shades, hat, sunscreen.
- Football or other things for players to sign, along with a sharpie.

6. Never underrate an underrated Bengals team.

It’s impossible to declare that a team will be either awesome or awesomely bad after watching the third day of training camp. Having a rookie QB is also not the best harbinger of things to come. But the coaches like him and he seems to know the offense pretty well already. I think the mental part may be easier for Dalton than the physical. By mental part I mean learning the playbook. The physical would be applying those plays under pressure, and not necessarily the “arm strength” that people are complaining about.

It’s been well documented that the number one difference between college and the NFL is the speed of the game. It’ll take time for Dalton to adjust to it, but I think starting Dalton is the right decision for the team. It won’t be pretty at times, but I believe that people learn better by doing rather than watching on the sidelines.

The Bengals are also doing what’s necessary to repair their defense after getting ransacked by free agency/injuries/stupidity. I like all the additions of Nate Celements, Thomas Howard, and Manny Lawson. Thank you, Bay Area teams (Oakland and San Fran) for your castoffs. If the Bengals can get safety Donte Whitner from the Bills, I’d feel even better about the defense.

And then you look at the Bengals schedule. The first five games are against the Browns, Broncos, 49ers, Bills, and Jaguars. No one on there is a juggernaut (except the Bills, and only when they play the Bengals). I’d be a fool to count any of those games a W, but a 2-3 start is not out of the question. If they can get the run game going, the defense is back to being decent, and the passing game doesn’t screw up too much, who knows.

The best thing about this team is low expectations. Everyone on the roster should have a chip on his shoulder. I think the Bengals should “easily” surpass 4-12 this year. Oh yeah, nothing like Bengals optimism: We’re going to be better than 4-12! Yeah!

If you have an questions, comments, suggestions, complaints, you can email David Jacob at djacob@gearupforsports.com. You can also join his facebook group, and/or follow him at http://twitter.com/HoldenCarraway.

A.J. Green is now a Bengal.

The Bengals chose phenomenal WR A.J. Green for their first pick of the draft.  Some of the draft analysts said that this is a last ditch effort to draw Carson Palmer back to Cincinnati.  If this is a last ditch effort to get Carson, which I wouldn’t put pass the Bengals to do so, then this is like the last ditch effort in the movie Armageddon.   You know what I mean?  The asteroid, or whatever the hell it was, is about to explode, and Steve Buscemi’s character says about 500 thousand times (roughly) that they had to leave or they will die, but somehow they were still okay even though each time he says it it’s like they will really die right then.  They’re called movies, folks.  This kind of crap doesn’t happen in real life.  Just like Carson ain’t coming back to Cincy.

Anyway, since everyone and his brother said that the Bengals would select A.J. Green with their fourth pick of the draft, this selection wasn’t very shocking, and I made my peace with it a long time ago.  I wasn’t upset at all… until I heard about the Browns traded their pick to the Atlanta Falcons.  At first I thought, Good for them.  Make a deal.  Help out your team.  And stuff.  THEN I heard that the stupid bleeping Bengals themselves actually had a deal in place with the effin’ Falcons, but it fell through at the last second.  I didn’t care all that much until I saw what the Browns got in their deal:

1.  The Falcons’ first round, 2nd round, and fourth round picks for 2011.

2.  The Falcons’ first round and fourth round pick for 2012.

What the bleeping hell?  How could the Bengals pass up a deal that had to be at the very least comparable to what the Browns got?  What the hell did Mike Brown want?  The first born child of the Falcons’ future first round draft picks for the next 10 years?  I just don’t see how the Bengals could pass up such a good deal.  It probably fell apart because Mike Brown suddenly realized how big of a douchebag he is.  (Ah, I forgot I need to be screwing the Bengals, not helping them out.)

Don’t get me wrong, I’m cool with picking A.J. Green for the Bengals.  He’s the best receiver in the draft, has great hands, and blah blah blah.  After the Bengals picked Green, they posted his strengths and weaknesses.  Under weaknesses it said, None.  That’s a good trait to have, you know, No Weaknesses.  I’d like to put that on my resume: I really am just perfect, thanks.  My wife, being the smart and beautiful woman that she is, had a pretty witty comment: Number one weakness for A.J. Green: Can’t throw ball to himself.

Speaking of which, the predicted run on QBs in the first round of the draft is going on strong.  I had a mini-heart attack when Miami was on board, and I thought they would choose Andy Dalton.  I mean, when Christian Ponder went to Minnesota, I thought the Bengals were screwed.  They still have a chance.  I guess I will have to update the blog when I find out.  It may not be until Friday.  I’m hoping the Bengals can trade back up to the first round to get Dalton.  We’ll see.

I’m certainly not holding my breath or anything, but I can dream and hope.  The Ultimate Fantasy Draft that I envision for the Bengals is just that: an effin’ fantasy.  Like a fantasy on par with me leading a harem of Scarlett Johansson, Kelly Brook, and Keeley Hazell.  But what the hell?  Is it a crime to hope?

Va

Va

Voom

This last second lifting of a lockout is the NFL equivalent of a Hail Mary pass, a walk-off home run in baseball, an alley-oop in basketball.  You never expect anything of those to be successful, but when they are, it’s pretty effin’ sweet.  Without further ado, if I were the GM of the Bengals, here’s what I would do right now:

1)  Trade Carson for a first-round draft pick.  This is a fantasy, right?  The chances are stacked against the Bengals for them to get anything higher than a 3rd rounder, but it IS possible.

2)  Use that additional first-round draft pick and trade it for more picks.  The Bengals are in serious rebuilding mode, and they could use that pick to help several areas.

3)  Keep the No. 4 pick and take Someone Awesome, Possibly A.J. Green:  Since the Bengals have that additional first-round pick, it wouldn’t be as risky to take a wide receiver with the first pick.  And if you can get the best WR in the draft with Randy Moss-esque hands and leaping ability, that would be sweet.  Or the Bengals could go defense with Von Miller or Nick Fairley.  Either way, I would keep the No. 4 pick and take whoever I like the most (as in, like like, not just like).

4)  Or You Keep the Other First-Round Pick:  I wouldn’t necessarily trade the other first-round pick, especially if I could get someone like Mike Pouncey at guard.  Or I would go ahead and pick whatever QB I like the most (as in, like like LIKE, not just like), whether it is Christian Ponder, Andy Dalton, or whoever.

I completely and utterly understand that this is pure fantasy.  I mean, even if the Bengals do trade Carson Palmer, it’ll probably be for a second rounder at the most.  Still, you need to trade him and trade him now when you can help your team in 2011.  Sigh… I know this won’t happen, but a guy can dream, can’t he?

Will the Bengals Go Green?

Not that I’m the first to say this, but this NFL draft sucks ass.  I am saying this metaphorically, spiritually, whatever. 

Especially for this team that I for some reason continue to maintain interest in, the Cincinnati Bengals.  The Bengals have had the most top-six picks (8) in the past 20 years, and the majority of these dudes have been busts.  Here are a few of them: David Klingler, Akili Smith (both QBs have had more INTs than TDs), Ki-Jana Carter (the only time the Bengals moved up in the draft, and then Carter tears his ACL after the THIRD play of the PRESEASON), and Peter Warrick.  To be fair, the Bengals drafted better defensively than offensively, and those awesome defensive picks have put fear and loathing in… Ah, just nevermind.

So yeah, the Bengals this year have the fourth pick, and the options seem to be fairly limited for the Bengals.  The only QB that they would take, Cam Newton, is almost certainly off the board.  Even though I have supported the position in the past, I’m not clammering for the Bengals to draft him.  Sure, there’s also Blaine Gabbert, but he just looks like a douchebag, and he came out of nowhere.  How do you go from a mediocre college QB to “Oh yeah, you gotta draft him in the top ten”?  I read somewhere that Jimmy Clausen graded out higher than Gabbert did.  That’s all you need to know.  Plus, the whole douchebag thing. 

WR A.J. Green seems to be a good pick for the Bengals even though the opening day starter for QB most likely won’t be on the roster when we draft him.  But if you have the chance to draft a receiver that could be dominant in the league, why not?  I’m not a hundred perecent happy with this either, especially with receivers like Jerome Simpson, Andre Caldwell, and Jordan Shipley on the roster (and I guess Chad, too, but I’m just hoping he’s not back next year).  The Bengals could go defensively again, with some people arguing that the Bengals could draft Patrick Peterson, Von Miller, or Robert Quinn. 

The thing is, there is not a single prospect that the Bengals could draft at No. 4 that I would even get remotely excited about.  Not one.  Plus, the Bengals need to draft a QB like they need to get a new owner/GM: as in really effin’ bad.  The Benglas probably won’t draft a QB at No. 4, and then they would just sit there hoping and praying that a QB that they want is still there at the top of the second round.  But now there are a bunch of rumors that many QB-needy teams will reach and draft them in the first round, leaving the Bengals screwed. 

The easiest cure for this?  Trade with New England.  It almost makes too much sense for the Bengals to trade out of the No. 4 pick.  The Patriots have the 17th, 28th, and 33rd overall picks.  And apparently the Patriots would like to get A.J. Green or Von Miller with the No. 4 pick.  According to Peter King, the Bengals could actually and reasonably trade their No. 4 pick for those 3 picks… Say what? Really?  Apparently,  there’s this system that assigns a numerical value to each draft pick.  The No. 4 pick = 2,200 points.  17th + 28th + 33rd =2,190. 

O. M. G.  Really?  Like, for real?  I need to write Mike Brown another letter to see if he knows this stuff (by the way, I have yet to receive a response to my last letter… not too surprised).  Of course, Peter King said that this numerical system isn’t “gospel” and teams don’t have to abide by this rule… But let’s throw out any reservations right now and just think about how much sense this trade would make for the Bengals.  Let me list a few reasons why the Bengals need to jump all over this if New England is willing to offer it:

1.  You Get Your QB:  There is no waiting and praying for the QB that you want to land in round 2.  The Bengals also wouldn’t need to trade draft picks to get back to round one.   At 17, the Bengals should have a reasonable shot at just about any quarterback that they want outside of the top two QBs.  Supposedly Bengals offensive coordinator Jay Gruden (Jon’s brother) is in “love” (per Peter King) with Andy Dalton from TCU.  I mean, yeah the kid is a full-fledged flaming ginger, so that means he has no soul and is evil incarnate, but I think the Bengals need that kind of edge. 

2.  Two Bleeping First Round Picks:  Do I need to say anything about that?  Who knows what the Bengals would get at 28, but I would hope it would be an offensive lineman to help protect the Ginger’s Soulless Ass. 

3.  And Two Picks at the  Top of the Second:  Hell yeah! 

4.  No Worries about “Wasting” the No. 4 Pick on ”Just” a Receiver:  I wouldn’t be too pissed if the Bengals did keep the No. 4 pick and go Green, but it just doesn’t seem like it’s the best scenario for the Bengals.  The Bengals can easily address the wide receiver problem with one of their second round picks. 

Second Best Option:

Once again, according to Peter King, there may already be a deal on the table with the Patriots trading one of their first round picks with a team in the second round.  If this could somehow be the Bengals, I would be pretty stoked.  The Bengals would not receive as many picks in the first scenario, but it may help them even more.  Why?

1.  You Get Green:  The Bengals get the best receiver in the draft.  Can’t complain about that.  More talent is better than less talent.

2.  You Get Your QB:  See above.

The only thing is that the Bengals would have to give up another draft pick to achieve this scenario, and for a rebuilding team like the Bengals, you need more picks rather than less.  Regardless, I’d make this trade in second because of our QB situation (did you know that Carson Palmer isn’t returning?  Apparently Mike Brown doesn’t).  I kind of doubt that the first scenario pans out, because, you know, Bill Bellichick being an evil bastard douchebag  and all (worse than Gabbert), and I doubt if he’ll give a team such an awesome deal in the first scenario, but the second scenario may already be deal. 

Here’s hoping that the Bengals don’t screw this up (this is sadly a familiar refrain). 

Look, I get it.  I know this is going nowhere.  Trying to convince Mike Brown to trade Carson Palmer is like trying to convince Charlie Sheen that he’s not really “winning,” whatever that means.  Don’t ask me why I’m doing my pointless fight.  I sat down to write a short, one-page letter, and it ended up being over a thousand words long.  Should I be certified insane?  Yes, probably.  But I can’t help myself when I see logical fallacies in other people’s arguments.  I. Must. Prove. Them. Wrong.  Even if it’s like trying to teach a rock how to smile.  Anwyay, here’s the last letter that I’m responding to here: Mike Brown’s Letter.

April 12, 2011

Dear Mr. Brown:

Thank you again for your response.  It is obvious that we will have to agree to disagree on this matter, and that you won’t change your mind on this matter.  Nevertheless, I keep writing to you because I am a diehard fan of the Bengals, and I feel strongly about this matter.

I would like to continue being a fan of the Bengals, but sometimes I feel like Bengals fans are lemmings and you are the Pied Piper.  I hope I am completely wrong about this.  I hope you are right about Palmer coming back and leading the Bengals to many more wins.

In your letter, you say that the Bengals have a “50% chance at a good veteran quarterback.”  I obviously would disagree with that overtly sanguine prediction, but let’s say there is a 50/50 chance of Carson coming back for argument’s sake.  If Palmer does actually come back, here are two possibilities happening (there are a myriad situations happening, but I can’t cover everything):

1)  Palmer decides he wants to play for the Bengals for the rest of his life, and he rediscovers the golden touch that he had back in ’05 and ’06.

2)  Similar to Boomer Esiaison, Palmer comes back conditionally for one more year if he is traded in 2012.  The Bengals draft his replacement, who sits and learns under Carson in 2011.

Without being too hyperbolic, I give the first scenario a 1,000 to 1 shot, if not impossible.  Anyone can have a change of heart, but with Carson demanding a trade and then playing for the Bengals for more than two years that are left on his contract — I just don’t see that happening at all.

The second scenario would be the most likely situation if Carson comes, with a very remote chance of Carson staying both years left on his contract.

So if I’m a betting man, and I have a 50/50 shot at winning something, I take a look at my risks and rewards for my bet.  If Carson decides to come back, you get to rent a veteran quarterback for a year while a rookie sits and develops behind him.  Admittedly, this is the most ideal situation for the Bengals that I see possible for 2011.  If this happens, that’s great for the Bengals and the fans.  Cincinnatians are forgiving people and we’ll welcome Carson back with open arms.

But the thing is, it’s just one year.  That’s it.   You have a 50/50 shot of having just one year of Carson Palmer at the helm.

If you decide to mitigate your losses in this situation and trade Carson, however, you could get the 2nd or 3rd round draft pick for him.  In your letter, you state that “[b]ased on last year’s draft, that translates into a back-up cornerback or back-up receiver.”  This seems to be an overly negative assessment of the value of 2nd and 3rd round picks.  The Bengals themselves have drafted many successful players in the second round or later.  Look at Chad Ochocinco, Rey Maualuga, Chris Henry, Michael Johnson, etc.  I’m surprised I have to mention this at all.  And this year’s draft, the Bengals may possibly draft a quarterback in second round.  You may not draft it with the same pick that you may get for the trade, but, nevertheless, I feel you are unnecessarily devaluing second and third round picks.

And even if the Bengals get “just” a back-up cornerback/receiver, this is still better than receiving nothing at all for a former first-round draft pick.   So if I’m taking this bet with 50/50 odds, and I have a choice between having just one year of Carson vs. “just” a back-up corner/receiver (which I don’t think you’ll necessarily get in the second round), I’d rather go with the pick that I know will give me at least a few years rather than a veteran QB that’ll give me just one.  Even if it’s a great year, which it probably would be since he would be supremely motivated to play well, he would almost certainly be gone.

So then you would still have the same quarterback in 2012 if you don’t trade Carson as you would for the 2011 season if you did trade Carson.  In other words, even if you do win at this contract game, you wouldn’t win for very long, and the circumstances of winning is not significantly better than if you just go ahead and trade him for a pick.

Let me put it in another way (this obviously presupposes a new CBA agreement).

Choice 1: Don’t trade Carson.

-        Positives: He could come back for one year, possibly have a good year, and mentor your new rookie QB. Carson leaves, get picks, and a rookie starts in 2012.

-        Negatives: He does not come back, and the Bengals receive no compensation whatsoever for it.  Bengal fans morale abates even more.

Choice 2: Trade Carson

-        Positives: Ends the current stalemate, and the team gets at least one compensatory pick.  The rookie QB gets more experience as a starter than he would just watching Carson (this is a debatable move, but Sam Bradford did okay last year).  He is the starter for 2011 and 2012.

-        Negatives: The pick for Carson could be just a 3rd round pick, and it could be a bust.

The positives for not trading Carson slightly outweighs the positives for choice two, just because of the mentoring part, but the end result for trading/not trading Carson is eerily similar: a new QB in 2012.  The negative for trading Carson, however, is not nearly as great as the one for choice one.  I mean, draft busts can hurt a team, but I can understand that that happens in the draft sometimes.  I can accept that.  But it’s hard for me to countenance the stance that you have taken, taking the risky proposition here rather than the safe one.

In most circumstances in life, you want to take the known rather than the unknown.  Here, you know you can get at least one draft pick for Carson.  What you don’t know is if Carson will be back.  High probability, strong possibility, or not.

In your letter you wrote, “Opinions vary as what to do.”  I can tell you for almost a certain fact that this is a false statement.  I would like to see if you could name one person outside of your family circle who agrees with your stance on Carson.  I have yet to hear a single NFL person who believes that you should not trade Carson Palmer.  If you polled every single GM, every NFL owner, I would highly doubt they would take your stance if they faced this exact situation.  And the opinion of the second most important person in this situation — Marvin Lewis — I would doubt it seriously if he supports taking this gamble on trading Carson Palmer.  This is not to say that he wouldn’t want Carson back, but I would bet you that if you asked his opinion on this matter, Marvin would tell you to trade Carson once the new CBA is reached, which will hopefully (but doubtfully) be reached before the draft.

As I said before, I hope I am very wrong about this situation.  If you are right, I will be the first person to congratulate you.  Heck, I might even write you another letter, one of sincere apology.

Thanks again for your time.  Good luck with the upcoming draft.  I think Andy Dalton from TCU would be a good choice for QB in the second round.  Just another thought.

Sincerely,

David R. Jacob