What will Green Bay do? Well, knowing Ted Thompson, we’ll sign a bunch of our own players, cut a few (punter Jeremy Kapinos is already out the door), and wait for the “second wave” of free agent signings.

That means no, we’re not getting Julius Peppers.

Anyway, I’ve got a few thoughts on where the Packers SHOULD and WILL end up making moves on the free agent market, but they don’t translate particularly well to a post. After all, the first 24 hours of the free agency period are wild and fluid. Therefore, I’m going to be updating my thoughts periodically on Twitter. You can follow me at http://twitter.com/greenbayblog.

Hope to see you as followers!

Can somebody get this man a contract? Anybody?

Welcome to everyone’s favorite part of the NFL season: the offseason! All 32 teams can once again begin dreaming of their own Lombardi trophy, and it seems absolutely feasible to every single one of them not run by Al Davis. If you’ve ever played any of the Madden football video games, you’re probably keenly aware of the process each team goes through. There’s franchising tags to be placed, combine scores to compile, free agents of your own to sign, free agents of others to sign, then the draft in late April caps off the roster piling (we’ll get to the paring down process this summer). Before I sign off for a few weeks, I thought I’d take a look at the six most pressing offseason issues for the Packers. Afterwards, I’ll provide a mini-capsule for each of the other 31 teams (just so no one feels neglected like Adam Vinatieri did on the sidelines of Super Bowl XLIV. Does that still sting, Colts fans?) and call it a wrap. With 132 different players tagged in this six-pack, you know it’s going to be fulfilling.

As always, feel free to leave your most biting insults, your most valiant praise, your in-between questions in the comment box below. I’m also available via e-mail (selfserve@gmail.com) or on the Twitterscape (@greenbayblog).

THE SIX THINGS ON WHICH THE PACKERS SHOULD FOCUS THIS OFFSEASON:

1. In one of football’s great ironies, tackles are supposed to prevent tackles. Remember the first nine games of the 2009 season, when the Packers went 4-4 and threw out the sampler pack at offensive line every week, expecting to keep Aaron Rodgers upright? I wrote extensively about how offensive line members need continuity to work at a high level; it’s essential for communication about combo blocks, about audibles, about knowing the weaknesses and strengths of the guys playing on each side of you. Allen Barbre was an unmitigated disaster at right tackle, getting beaten inside and outside on both speed and strength moves on the Sunday night opener against the Bears. I’d be surprised if he survives the offseason with a job. Daryn Colledge, an otherwise serviceable guard, looked well out of position at left tackle when forced into the role. Why was he? Because the creaky knees of Chad Clifton can only hold up for so long. Ditto that of mid-season signee Mark Tauscher, who did an admirable job of providing a modicum of stability. Over those first eight games, Rodgers was getting sacked at a clip of about 4-5 per game. In the last eight, that figure dropped to around 1 per game.
   
   

   Even in an exhibition game, Rodgers can’t help but get sacked.

   Of course, part of that drop goes to Rodgers’ admission he was holding on to the ball a little too long at points. And another part goes to coach Mike McCarthy scrapping some of his downfield throws in lieu of shorter routes like hitches, drags, slants, screens, and run/pass options. Still, Green Bay would be folly to assume they can throw Rodgers to the wolves in 2010 and expect great results. It’s one of the more incredible statistics to me that Rodgers could pass for over 4,000 yards, increase his touchdowns from 28 in 2008 to 30 in 2009, and reduce his interceptions from 13 to 7 while leading the lead in sacks accrued with 50. Lucky duckies that the Packers are, this draft has several high-end tackle talents including Bryan Bulaga of Iowa, Bruce Campbell of Maryland, Russell Okung of Oklahoma State, and Charles Brown of USC. Most are more polished at run blocking than pass blocking, but that’s generally the case for rookies. Plus, Green Bay has to feel pretty good about their fourth-round pick from 2009, T.J. Lang out of Eastern Michigan, who did a decent job as a backup. Keeping Rodgers upright will extend more drives, give the defense more time to recoup, and tilt time of possession in favor of Green Bay (and the most obvious gain, the protection of Rodgers’ body).

2. Want to 3-4? Kampman’s walking out the door. I love Aaron Kampman. I always have. He’s a high-energy, articulate, talented guy who just happens to wear the same number (74) I wore in sports. I love his humble beginnings as a Packer and it was a treat to watch him blossom into one of the league’s premiere pass rushers, culminating in a 2008 Pro Bowl spot. He was born in Iowa, went to school there, and didn’t have to travel too far to play in Wisconsin. But I think you and I both know he’s played his last down in a green-and-yellow uniform. Despite what you’ll hear from coach McCarthy and especially defensive coordinator Dom Capers, Kampman was a square peg in the round 3-4 scheme Capers implemented last year. His strength is putting a hand in the turf and flying after the quarterback, and his secondary strength is backside run support. Too many times, Kampman was expected to provide a pass rush in a two-point stance, or worse yet, cover a running back in the flat or a tight end up the seam. It’s just not a sterling point of his skill set.
   
   Kampman’s ACL tear midway through the season may work for or against the Packers. Does it diminish his leverage in contract negotiations? I don’t know. I do know Green Bay couldn’t trade him unless they signed him first (a practice common in the modern-era NBA but unheard of in the NFL). They could try to stick the franchise tag on him, but that would cost the Packers $9-$11 million (depending on whether or not Kampman could convince the league he’s primarily a defensive end and not a linebacker) and would only provide the Packers a year of procrastination on the subject. No team would try and sign Kampman after being franchised–who’s going to surrender two first-round picks to a guy coming off major knee surgery? I expect the Packers to do some level of negotiation with Kampman, which he’ll probably reject and some other team who plays a traditional 4-3 will scoop him up (perhaps Carolina or Chicago?). His backup, Brad Jones, has some mid-level talent but it remains to be seen whether or not he can play full-time. I’m guessing here that if Ted Thompson makes a foray into the free agent pool it’ll be for a linebacker, but probably not someone like Julius Peppers (who hates Packers D-line coach Mike Trgovac) or Shawne Merriman (who would probably cost the team too much). Look for another Brandon Chillar-esque signing and/or depth in the mid-to-late rounds in the draft.
3. Safety second? All you need to know about the importance of having quality safeties in the NFL can be surmised in the first Green Bay/Minnesota game last year. With Aaron Rouse having been traded to the New York Giants (another team with huge safety issues all year after Kenny Phillips went down) before the season and Atari Bigby out with an injury, the Packers were forced to start Derrick Martin at the strong safety position. Martin had been acquired only a month prior in a late pre-season trade with Baltimore, in part due to the struggles of free agent signee Anthony Smith (who was cut very early on). Martin struggled badly to understand the complexities of the position, couldn’t communicate with cornerbacks Al Harris or Charles Woodson, and by my count was responsible for no less than two easy touchdowns scored.
   
   Bigby’s a restricted free agent, and while everyone loves his aggressiveness and tackling, some questions remain about his football intelligence and his cover skills. He’s certainly no slouch though, and he benefits from playing next to Nick Collins, probably the best young safety in the game. In only his fifth year, Collins has already amassed two Pro Bowl nominations. His 13 interceptions in the last two years are second to Charles Woodson’s 16. Wouldn’t you know it, he’s also a restricted free agent this year. The Packers #1 offseason signing needs to be one of their own. Collins at the very least needs to be given the highest RFA offer (a little over $3 million for a year), which would require a team to surrender its first and third round picks if its offer sheet were not matched by the Packers. More adequately, Green Bay needs to recognize its young talent and what the defense would look like without a player like Collins manning the deep middle. He’s only missed three games in his career and none in the last two, Pro Bowl-caliber seasons. Keep Capers’ arsenal complete and sign Collins to a long-term deal ASAP.


“I’m pretty sure coach wanted me to fall down at the 1-yard line on this return.”

4. Unspecial teams. This is an easy one to tackle–probably a lot easier than Packers special teamers find it to tackle their opponents. I watched time and time again as field position was surrendered due to shoddy angles taken on kickoffs and inability to wrap up on punts. Green Bay didn’t score a touchdown on a kick or a punt return this year. By itself, this isn’t all that demoralizing; most teams score one or zero per year. Yet it seemed Green Bay hardly tried to set themselves up with solid returning. Jordy Nelson as kick returner is almost as maddening an experiment as Najeh Davenport running back kicks. I understand he’s good at seeing the open field and has long legs, but traditionally the successful kick/punt returners have been the elusive, athletic type with quick hips and decisive cuts (think Dante Hall, Reggie Bush, Devin Hester). Part of the problem is the guy on the roster with moves like that, Will Blackmon, once again suffered a season-ending injury. They can try to see if Blackmon survives a full year or they can draft a slash-type player late in the draft.
   
   We haven’t even gotten to the punter or kicker yet. Jeremy Kapinos won the punting position in camp by wowing coaches with his strong leg. It never really translated onto the field (although at least he didn’t have a debacle of a game like Jon Ryan did against Chicago late in 2008). Naturally, Green Bay has already brought in punters to work up some competition. No word yet whether or not Mason Crosby can expect to see competition. His problems from the right hash were well-chronicled by others and myself, and it seemed like late in the season he got his problems worked out (although he did miss one in the Wild Card loss to Arizona). No one has ever questioned the strength of Crosby’s leg. It’s only recently that accuracy has been an issue. There are enough veteran kickers on the street that McCarthy should bring one into camp to push Crosby. He needs special teams coach Shawn Slocum to send the message that no one’s job is protected, not after the dismal season everyone had.
5. Don’t take it for Granted.

Would you believe that Ryan Grant finished 7th in rushing yardage last year? Yup, and he was tied for seventh for touchdowns, too. Perhaps the reason these numbers seem so peculiar is because of Grant’s inconsistency. He had games of 14 rushes for 46 yards (against Cincy), 10 for 30 (against Minnesota), 20 for 61 (at Detroit), 18 for 41 (against Baltimore), and 8 for 37 (at Pittsburgh). In fact, Grant only had three games all year where he broke the 100-yard mark (although he did have 99 at St. Louis). This speaks to Grant’s work ethic. His six touchdowns in the last four games of the season and only one fumble all season, make it very apparent he’s comfortable handling the rock including bad weather situations.




Just imagining him diving over the pile to beat the Vikings gives me chills.

Still…don’t you wish Green Bay had something to offer opposing defenses besides Grant? Something to change the pace a little? Brandon Jackson was supposed to be that guy, but he’s found a new niche role as a third-down back (he is an excellent blitz recognizer and has decent hands). DeShawn Wynn was supposed to be an elusive type, but he can’t stay healthy long enough to make a difference. You know what I’d like? A bulky, Brandon Jacobs or Mike Alstott type to plow through defenses on third-and-short and inside the ten–at least as a decoy. Remember the “full house” backfields the Packers used to show when they had their cadre of Davenport, Tony Fisher, Samkon Gado and those fellas? Let’s bring that back as a goal-line wrinkle. You know who would fit perfectly as a Packer? Toby Gerhart of Stanford. He has an incredible motor but probably isn’t an every-down back. That’s fine; scoop him up in the third round and make me a very happy camper.

6. Every once in a while, great quarterbacks are going to do what they do to you. What I mean by this is the Packers can’t be too haunted by the downs of last season. Yes, it absolutely sucked watching Brett Favre tear up our defense in two separate games for four touchdowns apiece. You better believe that Ben Roethlisberger pass with no time remaining on the clock crushed me just a little. And Kurt Warner turned the clock back a decade with his incredible performance in the Wild Card round. It’ll happen, and if the Packers do the right things, it’ll be Aaron Rodgers making nightmares for other teams. More importantly, the focus cannot be on “we got torched by prolific passers” resulting in forsaking the run defense.
   
   The Packers play the AFC East and NFC East next season. All but three games (divisional ones against Detroit and Minnesota as well as one against Atlanta) are going to be outdoors. All but the Atlanta game will be in a potentially cold-weather climate. I know that this season more than most exemplified a team’s ability to win games with consistent accurate passing, but then you’ve got teams like the Dolphins and Jets who made their strategy to rush hard and play great outside defense. Incidentally, Green Bay plays both those teams next season. I’ll be looking forward mostly to the game at New England and Tom Brady, as well as the series against Minnesota (with or without Mr. Favre). Cowboys @ Packers and Packers @ Eagles also promise to be special games in 2010.

THE OTHER THIRTY-ONE!

NFC EAST

Only Philadelphia fans would clamor to get rid of a quarterback who had taken them to five conference championships.

Cowboys: 1) Figure out the implementation of Tashard Choice and Felix Jones as complementary backs; 2) Stop gearing the offense toward vertical passing. Tony Romo isn’t that kind of quarterback; 3) Pick up a stud safety and some cover linebackers.
Eagles: 1) Keep McNabb, for the love of William Penn. He’s a top-ten quarterback with something left in the tank, and you can’t replace that with Kevin Kolb; 2) See if you can get any value for Brian Westbrook–he’s done. The future is LeSean McCoy (Pitt alum!); 3) Will Witherspoon and Stewart Bradley (returning from ACL injury) are nice assets, but how about a third LB so you don’t have to see Jeremiah Trotter trudge around?
Giants: 1) Put Kenny Phillips in a plastic bubble. As soon as he was lost for the season, the defense got exposed repeatdly; 2) Eli Manning should study Drew Brees in the Super Bowl. That’s how you get it to your talented receivers (and yes, Steve Smith and Hakeem Nicks are a nice duo) and let them pick up yardage; 3) Stop calling dive plays at the goal line. We get it, you love Brandon Jacobs, but defenses adapt to that kind of thing.
Redskins: 1) Draft a new quarterback. Mike Shanahan isn’t going to have tolerance for an old regime’s mistake (sorry, Jason Campbell); 2) You know what, cut loose a lot of bad decisions from old empires, like Santana Moss and DeAngelo Hall. Overrated and underperforming; 3) If Daniel Snyder is willing to open his checkbook, why not make a run at a Peppers or Merriman to play opposite Brian Orakpo and send some long-lost fear into opposing QBs?

NFC NORTH
Bears: 1) Hope Mike Martz is the answer to corralling Jay Cutler’s erratic arm. On second thought… 2) Maybe find a real receiver or two so defenses can’t key on Greg Olsen; 3) I know you don’t have many draft picks, but do what you can to bolster the offensive line. There were no running lanes for Matt Forte this season.
Lions: 1) See the Bears #3. You need to keep Stafford upright and you need to give him a chance at a balanced offense; 2) Build your defense around Louis Delmas and perhaps Jordan Dizon. All others need to perform or be shown the door; 3) Get a little mean. That squad looked like a bunch of pushovers last year.
Vikings: 1) Plan on Favre leaving. For the record, I think he’ll return, but you won’t win a Super Bowl with him anyway, so it’s time to start a real (read: non-Tarvaris Jackson) long-term plan; 2) You’re not paying Adrian Peterson boatloads of money to fumble the ball away, so send him off to Tiki Barber Fumblitis Camp; 3) The dirty little secret of last year’s team is that they really couldn’t cover elite receivers. Time to draft/sign a secondary.

NFC SOUTH
Buccaneers: 1) Show a little continuity in the coaching staff. It’s one thing for coach Raheem Morris to fire his coordinators right before the season; it’s another for ownership to put him on the hot seat before his first season is even through; 2) Josh Freeman surprised me with his poise and accuracy at times last season. Give him some tall, sure-handed targets and let him work; 3) Develop leadership somewhere on the team. Where are my John Lynches, my Derrick Brookses, my Alstotts?
Falcons: 1) Get some depth on offense. We saw how deflated the team became when it was the Chris Redman and Jason Snelling show instead of Matt Ryan and Michael Turner; 2) It seems like I say this every year, but do the Falcons have a reliable cornerback? Brent Grimes isn’t the solution; 3) Find some way to make fans excited about this team. How many Falcons games have you watched where it didn’t sound like a morgue in the fourth quarter?

“If I close my eyes, maybe they’ll all just go away!”

Panthers: 1) Jettison Jake Delhomme on the side of the highway and don’t look back. He will continue to kill your team until you’re done burying your head in the sand; 2) Seriously, this team is a competent quarterback away from a playoff berth with Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams leading the team; 3) You might have to overpay a little, but get some studs in the front seven to replace the loss of Julius Peppers.
Saints: 1) Figure out what the deal is with RFA Reggie Bush. You can’t pay him like a feature back, but he adds a special element to your offense and punt returns; 2) Give your personnel and scout teams big raises. How else do you explain unearthing offensive gems like TE Dave Thomas, WR Marques Colston, and OG Jahri Evans; 3) Draft some youth to eventually replace the hard-working but aging LB Scott Shanle.

NFC WEST
49ers: 1) If you believe in the potential of Alex Smith, make it apparent from day one. This guy has been jerked around for the last few years and needs a little support; 2) Your offense is mostly fine – could use a complementary WR not named Josh Morgan – but you’ll have to account for the loss of Mike Martz and his interesting designs; 3) What you need most is any secondary help. DE Justin Smith and LB Patrick Willis are stars up front but they can’t get to the QB every down.
Cardinals: 1) I’m even a fan of Matt Leinart and I think the Cards are in deep trouble if they don’t make a play for a quarterback this offseason; 2) More Beanie Wells, more of the time. This guy is a real load to bring down; 3) Win more consistently at home. Last year’s road record was tremendous, but a higher seed could have been achieved by holding serve in Arizona.
Rams: 1) Do anything at the QB position. Anything at all, just as long as Marc Bulger never puts his hands under center again; 2) Can you name any Rams skill player other than Steven Jackson? Exactly; 3) Light a fire under Chris Long. Maybe make him bunk with James Laurinaitis on road trips.
Seahawks: 1) Pete Carroll’s going to need a decent WR (T.J. Houshmanzadeh, check) and an exciting RB (???) for his offense to work; 2) That offensive line is old and creaky. Time for some young blood; 3) Win some more at home and reward that 12th man at Qwest Field. They can make a real difference!

Maybe we should keep Rex’s finger off the tight sweater vests, too.

AFC EAST
Bills: 1) Blow up the offense. That thing is a train wreck; 2) Re-draft a linebacker. Aaron Maybin is a waste; 3) Prepare for three years of ineptitude under the bland Chan Gailey. I’m more pessimistic about the Bills future than any other team in the league.
Dolphins: 1) Don’t fool yourself into thinking Chad Henne is your guy. You did it before with Jay Fiedler and Chad Pennington; 2) Loved the playfulness of scheming Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown as a double threat. This team’s identity needs to continue to be rushing first; 3) Bill Parcells will build you a championship-caliber defense starting up front. Give him another offseason to put the pieces together.
Jets: 1) Keep developing Mark Sanchez. He never looked as good as he did in the first half of the AFC Divisional matchup against the Colts; 2) Find a kind way to let Thomas Jones know his days are numbered. Shonn Greene is an emergent star; 3) Keep Rex Ryan’s finger off the blitz button next season. It worked this past season, but now teams have a year’s worth of film to study.
Patriots: 1) You can feel it slipping, can’t you? With Bill Belichick assuming both an offensive and defensive coordinator role, next season could be a make-or-break; 2) Keep giving Tom Brady weapons! The man could do even more wonders with a reliable TE and a pass-catching RB; 3) The slow transition from the Super Bowl defenses of the mid-00’s to a younger squad is in mid-stride. Keep developing guys in the front seven like Jerod Mayo.

AFC NORTH
Bengals: 1) It was brutal watching Carson Palmer attempt to run an offense that had one leg. Get some playmakers, damn it; 2) Massage the ego of Shayne Graham. He’s a good kicker who had one bad game, albeit a playoff game; 3) OK, so you probably won’t go 6-0 again, but this team has the components (stingy D and a hard-nosed runner) to compete for the AFC North crown.
Browns: 1) Pick Brady Quinn. Seriously, no one’s buying that Derek Anderson has any value anymore. 2) Work around Jerome Harrison, whose body of work at the end of last season had to give Browns fans a glimmer of hope; 3) Watch and then rewind tape of the Thursday Night win over Pittsburgh–the defense never played as hard as it did that game, and they can build on that.
Ravens: 1) See the Bengals #1. Ray Rice is a fun running back, but there’s no reason he should be the team’s leading receiver; 2) Bart Scott left. Ray Lewis can’t last forever. Time to unearth some young linebackers; 3) Go back in time and keep Matt Stover on the team. Barring that, find a consistent kicker.
Steelers: 1) You know Ben Roethlisberger’s not going to start throwing the ball away to avoid sacks, so your best bet is to give him as strong of an O-line as possible. The first thing to do is give OT Willie Colon his walking papers, although it’s possible he’d get flagged for a false start on the way out of the complex; 2) Willie Parker’s a free agent this season. Say “Thanks for the memories!”; 3) Troy Polamalu won’t miss another season with injuries, but don’t let that stop you from finding some real safety depth.

You be the judge: savior of the Jaguars or Jersey Shore stand-in?

AFC SOUTH
Colts: 1) Might be time to invest in one of those big-bodied offensive linemen everyone keeps talking about. Ryan Lilja and Jeff Saturday get the job done most of the time but they’re not getting younger while defensive linemen keep getting bigger; 2) The defensive line played its mind out last year, but that’s due to overachieving by Robert Mathis and Raheem Brock–find some talent; 3) Jim Caldwell, make sure Peyton Manning knows it’s corrosive to success to throw your teammates under the bus. Peyton, make sure Jim doesn’t fall asleep during games and pays attention to defensive adjustments.
Jaguars: 1) I don’t really know if reaching for Tim Tebow is the answer, but somebody’s gotta sell some tickets in Northern Florida. If the league switches full-time to an uncapped system, Jacksonville won’t have a team a decade from now; 2) Teach David Garrard the importance of keeping his feet active and holding the ball closer to the chest. He can’t be leading the league in fumbles again; 3) Want to compete in a division with Andre Johnson and Reggie Wayne? Find another cover corner (Rashean Mathis is a good start but was injured last season) to keep up.
Texans: 1) Be consistent! B-E CONSISTENT! This was a 9-7 team that only needed one more win for the franchise’s first playoff appearance but frittered away winnable games; 2) Part of that reason is a lack of a power running game inside the ten, when the team’s vertical passing game is rendered disadvantageous; 3) Make a decision on CB Dunta Robinson, who possesses extreme talent but never seems to put it all together on the field (nor can stay on it for a full season).
Titans: 1) I like what the team did, handing over the reins to Vince Young and gearing the offense to something he could handle. It resulted in an 8-2 record for Young and allowed him to take baby steps in his development; 2) This season, turn up the heat on VY and force him to make more plays. Give him a real TE (apologies to Alge Crumpler) as a safety valve; 3) The run defense looked alright but the pass defense got chewed up in its real tests against Indy and San Diego. I suspect poor safety play.

AFC WEST:
Broncos: 1) Someone tell Brandon Marshall to get in a room with management and sort his problems out. Kyle Orton is not good enough of a quarterback to survive without elite talent; 2) Someone else tell Knowshon Moreno that he needs to toughen up and stop going down after the first hit; 3) As is forever the problem in Denver, the defensive line is compiled of puppets.
Chargers: 1) Philip Rivers seems to have confidence in his receivers when things are going well but clams up in tight games. Show some love to the men who make your numbers, Phil; 2) So I guess this is the end of the road for LT in San Diego. Sad to see him go, but the Chargers have always developed running backs well and I don’t see that changing; 3) The defense is starting to crumble and it appears LB Shawne Merriman will turn the lights out on his time in southern California. This upcoming draft needs to be almost exclusively about defense.
Chiefs: 1) How about Jamaal Charles at the end of the year, reviving the memory of Christian Okoye and Priest Holmes and (early) Larry Johnson? More touches for him, please; 2) Keep drafting big bodies to make sure Matt Cassel isn’t running for his life; 3) If you can’t change the ugliest uniforms in the game, at least change the cornerbacks wearing them. They couldn’t tackle Abe Vigoda.
Raiders: 1) Put JaMarcus Russell on a raft and send him out to sea. One thing’s for sure: we know he’ll wash up; 2) So you want to make defense the focus of this team, fine. But you need to score points to win games, and you can start by having a pass-catching clinic for guys like Darrius Heyward-Bey and Louis Murphy. Maybe Tim Brown’s available; 3) Sign P Shane Lechler and K Sebastien Janikowski to longer deals. Special teams play might be the only reason this team doesn’t go 1-15 every year.

There you have it, folks. I’d love to hear what you think about what your favorite team should do in the next six months before the NFL season is back in our embrace. I’ll check in with everyone again sometime before the draft to offer up my mock. Until then, enjoy the replays.

Enjoy the postseason!

-IL

My newest post can be found here.

Cheers!

-IL

If Charles Woodson doesn’t win Defensive Player of the Year, it’ll be the biggest and most obvious snow job since Forrest Gump won Best Picture in 1994 over The Shawshank Redemption and Pulp Fiction.

Happy 2010! I hope all of you had a festive and merry New Year’s celebration with the appropriate amount of champagne, an acceptable portion of cocktail shrimp, and a nice cigar to top off the evening (I know I did). I took the past weekend off to soak in the holiday as well as a personal little vacation (both my anniversary and my birthday occurred over the last few days), but that’s not to say I missed out on the NFL this weekend. How could I with so many playoff entries and seedings at stake? Some teams probably wished the calendar remained at 2009 (hello, Denver and Philadelphia) while other teams obviously made their resolution to kick ass. However you slice your cake, the Wrap-Up is back in action with a full serving of insight, fun, and copious parenthetical statements. We start, as always, with a recap of the Green Bay game followed by the rest of the league’s action.

Need to file an official complaint? Wondering how you can lavish praise upon my unworthy soul? Feel free to drop a comment in the box provided neatly below, or e-mail me: selfserve@gmail.com. For those of you in the Twitterati, you can follow me year-round @greenbayblog.

THINGS I’M STILL PONDERING…

• How much have you learned from watching your team pummel another for eight quarters in the last four months? Zilch. Green Bay won its second game over the Cardinals this season (including a preseason win) but no one really has any clue how these teams will match up when playing at full speed. By virtue of the Vikings’ drubbing of the Giants earlier in the day, Arizona had nothing to play for by gametime. Similarly, Green Bay had little motivation to play its starters through and through, although it’s true that Green Bay would have fallen to the sixth seed had they lost and traveled to Dallas next week. Anyway, this game was over in a hurry. Kurt Warner was a phantom, and you and I both know that Matt Leinart and Brian St. Pierre (who is the subject of my buddy Nick’s hilarious fantasy football team name, which I cannot disclose in this space due to obscenity laws) are not going to come close to playoff action barring a major disaster. I suppose what we can gleam from this game are the two players most likely to affect a Green Bay win or loss: tight end Jermichael Finley, who looks like a matchup disaster for any of the Cardinals’ secondary; and cornerback/All-World ballhawk Charles Woodson, who tied the league for tops in the interception department with his ninth of the year and returned it for his third touchdown in 2009. His eight total return touchdowns as a Packer are a franchise record–and he’s only been in town for four years. Talk about a savvy investment.
• Here’s an incredible statistic, courtesy of Twitter-friend @NFLfootballinfo: Green Bay is the first team ever to have consecutive seasons of a 4,000+ yard passer, a 1,200+ yard rusher, and two 1,000+ yard receivers. The passer is obviously Aaron Rodgers and the receivers are clearly Donald Driver and Greg Jennings. But how about Ryan Grant, who finished the year with the quietest 11-touchdown, 1,253-yard performance in modern history? He ended the season with more yards than guys like Frank Gore, Marion Barber, Cedric Benson, and Ricky Williams. Despite being on a team loaded with passing talent and geared toward an aerial game, he finished the year 7th in both attempts per game and touchdowns. Watching him play in limited action against the Cardinals (as well as previous weeks against Chicago and Seattle), it’s obvious to me that he’s more decisive than in months past and is looking to pick up those extra few yards after first contact. This bodes well for the Packers, whose magical 2007 run to the NFC Championship never happens if Grant doesn’t become a playoff spark plug.


52+90 = 2/11 of a top-5 defense.

• Three more interceptions by the Packers defense (the aforementioned Woodson pick-six, another Atari Bigby theft, and a Tramon Williams grab) put the Packers at +24 in turnover-differential for the year, marking them as the best in the league in that statistic. Remember in the first half of the year, when the Saints were just blowing everyone out of the water and looking like world-beaters? Remember how they lost their last three games? Part of that is due to a lack of turnovers from their formerly-opportunistic defense. Green Bay continues to make sacks, force fumbles, jump routes, and blow up plays in the backfield even after losing top stars Al Harris and Aaron Kampman. I know I bring this up almost every week, but how often do you hear about a team losing two of their top four or five defenders and not using it as an excuse for undisciplined or lackadaisical play? My hat (which is currently a gorgeous early-90’s Toronto Blue Jays ballcap, courtesy of a birthday gift from my buddy Brendan) goes off to defensive coordinator Dom Capers, but it also must be placed back upon my head and subsequently tossed a second time to general manager Ted Thompson (and in a tertiary metaphorical gesture, to all the Green Bay college scouts). Without their foresight and planning, Green Bay may not have been able to grab both bulky NT B.J. Raji and fiery gamebreaker OLB Clay Matthews in the first-round of this year’s draft.
• I’m saving my predictions for Sunday’s Wild Card game for the preview column later this week, so you won’t hear any early proclamations from this corner. Besides, as I noted earlier, who here knows anything about what might happen despite the amount of action these two squads have incurred? It appears that of the injuries accrued by both sides (the Cardinals lost CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and WR Anquan Boldin; Green Bay had to shelve Woodson and rookie OLB Brad Jones), the knee of Boldin appears to be the most serious. Something tells me that if Boldin can recover in two weeks from a shattered face (actual event from last season), a simple knee hiccup won’t stop him from participating in a playoff game. There’s a lot of grit in the 2009 Cardinals and a surprising amount of depth when compared to the 2008 team that nearly won the Super Bowl–but do you really feel like this is the same team that was within a miracle catch of their first championship? It’s hard to gauge, I know. Lucky for us, we have a few more days to argue about it.

MEANWHILE, BACK AT THE RANCH…

Do-overs are not exclusive to backyard football.
You’re going to experience a very acute sense of déjà vu this weekend in the Wild Card round. Green Bay travels to Arizona for the third time this season, but they’re not the only ones facing a very familiar foe. By virtue of their home shutout over Philadelphia, Dallas clinched the NFC East title and jumped all the way to the third seed from the sixth. Meanwhile, the Eagles replace the Cowboys at the bottom of the NFC playoff totem pole, and wouldn’t you know it, they have to travel to Dallas yet again on Saturday for the third installment. Late in the evening on Sunday, the Jets wrapped up their playoff entry with a shutout of their own against the visiting Bengals. Their prize? A trip this weekend to Cincinnati to face the Bengals once more. Football playoffs are suddenly resembling baseball playoffs! As far as my limited research could direct me, this is the first time in NFL history that three playoff games are rematches from the previous week. Only the Patriots/Ravens contest features teams that didn’t play each other this past weekend.

“Is that an audible to a run play I see? Timeout, ref!”

First, the Eagles/Cowboys game: who would have thought the Eagles, who looked so commanding the last month and a half, would have rolled over so half-heartedly? The Eagles’ receiving statistics belie the problem. Explosive outside threats DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin were each contained to three catches for 47 yards apiece. The leading Eagles receiver was tight end Brent Celek with 7 catches for 96 yards. Even more telling is the number of rushes Eagles head coach Andy Reid called: ten. I’m looking at this and seeing that Reid’s plan early was to attack Dallas’ cornerbacks with deep routes – the kind of explosive plays on which Jackson made his Pro Bowl reputation – but when that failed and Dallas jumped ahead, he abandoned the run and was forced to take short passes over the middle. Andy Reid abandoning the run game is about as obvious and almost as effective as Michael Bay spending 60% of his newest film’s budget on explosives. Tony Romo sure looks like a different player than years past when directing drives, especially without the help of his highest-priced toy, Roy Williams (DNP; sucks).

The AFC playoff picture was largely determined by the outcome of the Jets/Bengals game. Had the Bengals not played comatose and pulled off the win, the Houston Texans would have been the junior conference’s sixth entrant and celebrated their first ever playoff game. Alas, Houston fans, you’ll simply have to enjoy your first winning season and ponder losses to divisional opponents. The Bengals looked like they wanted no part of a team they were gearing up to play the following week, pulling Carson Palmer & Co. after a few weak series. I understand not wanting to risk injury, especially against the likes of LB Bart Scott and CB Darrelle Revis, but the Cincinnati offense has been running at half-speed for the last two months and giving starters the short shrift doesn’t seem to build any momentum.

Despite his season-ending injury, Wes Welker is a mortal lock for the Wayne Chrebet White Receiver Hall of Fame.

Speaking of momentum drainers, how about the Patriots against those Texans? New England watched their Pro Bowl receiver Wes Welker get taken off the field with season-ending knee injuries and then witnessed a 27-13 fourth-quarter lead evaporate into a 34-27 loss. As if that wasn’t enough, the face of the franchise, Tom Brady, suffered a broken ring finger to toss onto those three busted ribs he already has. The story of the Patriots this season has been: “Is the dynasty over?” or “Is Belichick outcoaching himself?” But really, it should be, “Tom Brady is doing more with the least amount of help since his first two seasons at starter.” I know it seems incongruous to say this with Randy Moss and Wes Welker both posting 1,000-yard seasons, but it’s Brady giving them the opportunity to make those numbers, not the other way around. The Patriots do not have a consistent rushing threat. The offensive line is allowing a number of brutal hits to Brady. Offensive coaches have been departing the Patriots for head coaching jobs for the last five years. And once more, New England strides into the playoffs, the team few expect to win it all and even fewer are rooting to do it. They’ll be facing a Baltimore team that boasts Ray Rice and Willis McGahee, but they can be shut down with gap discipline and solid tackling (note: you never want to be on the receiving end of what is called the “stiff arm from Hell”). When these two teams met all the way back in week 4, the Ravens only rushed 17 times in a close 27-21 loss. Methinks the attempts may rise a bit on Sunday. The Ravens D is pretty soft on the outside (how does Frank Walker still have a job with all the muggings he commits? He must wander the streets of Baltimore after games, holding up 7-11s in a sleepy daze) and can be too aggressive in their blitz packages if their pass rush doesn’t develop in the first half. Don’t sleep on Patriots/Ravens–it’s the only game that isn’t a re-run from last week’s episodes!

And for those of you turning your attention to the 2010 draft…
The Rams did it! They successfully earned the right to negotiate heavily with Ndamukong Suh’s agent to have him stand on a stage in April, awkwardly holding up a navy and gold jersey with the number 1 on it. I hope Suh can also play quarterback, the most deficient position on the terrible, awful Rams. For a while there, it looked like the opportunity to grab Suh would be in jeopardy against the 49ers as the game brilliantly throttled toward a 7-6 score early in the 4th quarter. It wouldn’t be long before Mike Singletary roused his quarterback Alex Smith from a peaceful slumber so he may throw a 73-yard touchdown to (the finally blossomed) TE Vernon Davis. Frank Gore added a pair of touchdowns to beat the point spread, I guess, and fool everyone into thinking that the Niners just could have maybe contributed if a few things went their way. Sorry, San Fran, but you needed not one but three more wins to make the playoffs. With your secondary getting consistently shredded by spread offenses and play action, even the mighty Patrick Willis couldn’t help you there.

In Miami, the Steelers took out two Dolphins quarterbacks and still nearly lost the game late. Starter Chad Henne played the first half but couldn’t return in the second due to a mysterious eye injury (I joked mid-game that Pittsburgh had employed Curly and Moe as defensive ends), then backup QB Pat White was carted off the field after a vicious hit. That left Tyler Thigpen to rally the troops, which he nearly did after some nifty footwork and a touchdown bomb to Davonne Bess showed why the Dolphins traded for him at the deadline this year. After recovering a Ben Roethlisberger fumble at the twenty, Thigpen threw an ugly pick into double coverage, showing why he’s still a third-string quarterback. The defending Super Bowl champs were later eliminated from playoff contention when Oakland lost to Baltimore. They need some new parts, especially along the offensive line (RT Willie Colon is good for at least two killer penalties a game and a sack allowed), and injuries to FS Troy Polamalu and DE Aaron Smith showed a surprising lack of viable defensive depth. The Steelers have been drafting high picks extraordinarily well the last six or seven years, but they need another good one to put themselves back in the elite echelon.

“Hey guys, check out my hilarious impression of Larry Johnson falling down after two yards!”

For either the Steelers or the Texans to make the playoffs, it was evident that the Broncos would have to fall apart against the Chiefs. Preposterous! pundits claimed (including me, who had them as ten point favorites last week) that the Broncos should lose at home to a divisional rival with a playoff berth on the line. OK, so it didn’t really matter that Denver lost, since wins by the Jets and Ravens would have knocked the Broncos out regardless, but it’s microcosmic of a season that began so illustriously and ended so dismally to lose by twenty to the Chiefs. We knew the Denver offense would look odd without deactivated WR Brandon Marshall and TE Tony Scheffler, along with injured WR Eddie Royal whose sophomore season was a decided bust, but why on earth is Kyle Orton dropping back to throw 56 times? And why is Jabar Gaffney catching 14 balls for 213 yards? More revealing is Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles’ rushing total: 259 yards and 2 touchdowns. He had a 10.9 average after twenty-five carries, not ten or twelve or fifteen. Denver should be more ashamed at that weak-ass effort in week 17 than anything else this season.

THE NO-HUDDLE…
The Colts drop a snowy game to the Bills and the Saints roll over against the Panthers and suddenly the world is frightened that these two teams won’t have the momentum necessary to push through to the Super Bowl. OK, there’s a kernel of truth in that sentiment, but let’s not go ahead and assume that Wild Card teams suddenly have an advantage over teams with first-round byes, otherwise teams would not play hard all year to earn that week(s) off…The Browns ended the Jaguars season early on Sunday with a somewhat surprising 23-17 win. RB Jerome Harrison put together a decent day (127 yards and a TD is nice, but a sub-4.0 average isn’t impressive to me) to overcome another comically bad performance by a Browns QB (step right up, Derek Anderson). Did you know that the Browns ended the year on a four-game winning streak, good for second-best in the conference behind San Diego and tied with Houston? Did you know that the Jaguars have a tight end named Zach Miller who caught two touchdowns Sunday, not to be confused with Raiders tight end Zach Miller who caught only one? Weird…For the second straight week, the Giants got burned early and often, this time by the Vikings and the almighty Brett Favre (4 TD passes). Someone in that coaching staff is going to get burned for this late-season collapse…Even with Philip Rivers and Antonio Gates sitting much of the game and Vincent Jackson sitting all of it, the Chargers had a nice comeback win over the Redskins. It’s fitting to me that the Jim Zorn era in Washington ends with four straight incomplete passes by Jason Campbell, the quarterback that got lukewarm support by Zorn and his crew…Congrats to Titans RB Chris Johnson, who eclipsed the 2,000-yard rushing mark in a 17-13 road win over the hapless Seahawks. He also broke Marshall Faulk’s record for most yards from scrimmage in a single season…A strange congrats to the Falcons: by beating the Buccaneers, you’ve recorded back-to-back winning seasons for the first time in your 34-year history…The Bears beat the Lions in a game few cared about, but I know I’m personally upset that Jay Cutler didn’t eclipse the 30-INT mark this year…
30 SECONDS OF FAME

I couldn’t resist any longer.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Yes, it’s way too easy to insult Bud Light’s marketing as crass, uninspiring, broad, ambiguous, childish, boring, and unfunny with poor timing. And no, this commercial isn’t the worst thing I’ve ever seen from them (you could even make a case that their awkward Tailgate Tested infomercial parodies are far worse). I guess I can’t even really complain about the super-abundant saturation of beer ads, since they pay an exorbitant fee to repeat their terrible commercials every fifteen minutes. I’m simply putting it out there as an official notice that Bud Light’s commercials are the absolute worse if you follow my proportional formula:

((Prestige of Brand + Quality of Commercial) X Saturation of Commercials) / Blank Stares – (Talking Animals + Ugly People)

WHAT I’M WATCHING NEXT WEEK:

Let’s be frank: there are twelve teams remaining in the hunt for the Lombardi, and eight of them square off this weekend. The 2009-2010 postseason gets started in five days when the Jets head to Cincinnati to face the Bengals (4:30 p.m., NBC). Later that night, it’s an NFC East rivalry (act III) when the Eagles and Cowboys meet in Dallas (8:00 p.m., NBC). On Sunday, the Ravens and Patriots clash in Foxboro (1:00 p.m., CBS) followed by the final Wild Card game in the desert between the Packers and the defending NFC champion Cardinals (4:30 p.m., FOX).

My picks for week 17:

THE GAMES NO ONE CARES ABOUT EXCEPT IMMEDIATE FAMILY MEMBERS OF PLAYERS:

COLTS AT BILLS: Bills by four.
SAINTS AT PANTHERS: Panthers by four.
JAGUARS AT BROWNS: Browns by seven. (UPSET SPECIAL!)
49ERS AT RAMS: 49ers by ten.
FALCONS AT BUCCANEERS: Falcons by ten.
BEARS AT LIONS: Bears by three.
TITANS AT SEAHAWKS: Titans by fourteen.
REDSKINS AT CHARGERS: Chargers by five.

THE GAMES THAT HAVE FRINGE PLAYOFF IMPLICATIONS:

PATRIOTS AT TEXANS: Texans by three.
GIANTS AT VIKINGS: Vikings by fourteen.
STEELERS AT DOLPHINS: Steelers by three.
CHIEFS AT BRONCOS: Broncos by ten.
RAVENS AT RAIDERS: Ravens by six.
PACKERS AT CARDINALS: Cardinals by seven.

THE GAMES PEOPLE WILL REALLY BE WATCHING:

EAGLES AT COWBOYS: Eagles by eight.
JETS AT BENGALS: Bengals by one.

Last week: 10-6
Overall: 163-76
Upset Special: 7-9

This game was so one-sided, even Jarrett Bush was making plays. That’s right, coach Mora, we’re talking playoffs!

The playoff picture is crystallizing like a fine midnight mist on the windshield of your car the next morning, and I am here to be your ice scraper, allowing you to see clearly what lies ahead. We no longer have any undefeated teams with Indianapolis’ half-hearted loss to the Jets (and what happened the last two weeks in New Orleans?) but we have plenty of intriguing ones. Which team do you fear most going into January 2010: the Chargers, the Eagles, the Packers, or some other entrant? Has your team recently been eliminated from postseason contention (this means you, NY Giants and Tennessee) or might-as-well-have-been eliminated (ditto to the Dolphins and Jags)? Keep on watching in week 17 and into the playoffs; your dedication to the sport is what separates a lukewarm fan from a true one. I, for one, am as pumped as ever to tackle the final twelve teams as we move into the most exciting playoffs in all of sports.

We begin this column as usual with a quick recap of the Packers game before investigating a few trends from the week, then the items you’ve come to appreciate. Not that you need a reminder, but feel free to leave a comment in the box below or if you’re into the privacy thing, you can e-mail me: selfserve@gmail.com. For those floating in the Twitterverse, I’m also found @greenbayblog.

THINGS I’M STILL PONDERING…

• The game was close for about twelve minutes, then the talent disparity of the two teams became apparent. Aaron Rodgers didn’t do a whole lot – less than 200 yards, only one touchdown, completed just over 50% of his passes – but he didn’t need to do a whole lot. He threw no interceptions and took only one sack (although two other sacks were nullified by defensive penalties) and he also picked up an early first-down by scrambling out of the pocket. These are all signs of an intelligent quarterback, but they’re also signs of better coaching by Mike McCarthy. You know that despite the rhetoric suggesting otherwise, McCarthy does not feel that his team can succeed with running the ball. The zone-blocking system is designed to take advantage of smaller, more decisive backs who don’t have the physical strength to bulldoze. The Packers have extensively used shotgun-spread formations, often going with empty backfields. You win by putting your best players on the field in effective formations–for Green Bay, this is their wide receiver corps in open space. Yet, this is not how Green Bay won.
• The Packers, strangely enough, ran the ball down Seattle’s gullet. It’s not strange in a football sense – rushing is still roughly half the game’s action – but it’s strange when you realize the last time the Packers had four rushing touchdowns in a game it was one decade ago. Yup, on January 2nd, 2000, Dorsey Levens went all Abe Lincoln on the Cardinals and had four scores.
  

  Ryan Grant channels his inner Reggie Bush on this first-quarter touchdown dive.

  Sunday, it was Ryan Grant with one, third-down sub Brandon Jackson with two (he also had a receiving touchdown in easily his biggest day as a pro), and Batman himself, Ahman Green, with the final tally. Before Grant’s touchdown, he was averaging just under two yards a carry. Does this mean his game is flukish? Yes and no. Grant’s not the kind of back you give the rock to 25 times a game and expect him to be a consistent game-breaker. Instead, he’s the kind of back you want to get about three or four yards a carry when things are going well and you hope he breaks a couple big runs. On his touchdown, left guard Daryn Colledge, who was much-maligned earlier in the year in his fill-in role as a left tackle, pulled out beautifully to the second level and sealed off the weak-side linebacker. Excellent edge blocking from the receivers also made that run possible.

• You gotta love seeing the backups take reps in the fourth quarter. Matt Flynn came in at quarterback, Derrick Martin, Jarrett Bush, and Brandon Underwood came in for the secondary, and Michael Montgomery and Cyril Obiozor got time working on the defensive line. Things were going so well that Mason Crosby forgot to miss a field goal! He went two-for-two on the day, knuckling a 29-yarder at the end of the first half and later adding a 52-yard shot to his collection. He got warm applause from the Green Bay faithful after the first and raucous cheering after the second, so let’s hope that was the kind of performance he needed to get his confidence back. Caveat: both kicks were from the left hash, not the right. I’ll feel a little less anxious when he starts regularly nailing kicks from that side.
• Let’s face it: this is a game Green Bay should have won handily, and they did. Actually, they won by a lot more than anyone suspected (who predicts 38-point blowouts?), but that’s a great sign. You want your team moving into January with swagger. I have no idea how next week will shake out with the game against Arizona. Do you resist showing anything but your vanilla offense and defense, knowing that you’re likely facing the same team the following week? Do you even play your starters more than a quarter or two? I don’t know, but I can tell you it’ll be my number-one question moving into my preview column this week. We’ll say this: the Packers are in, and they’re in convincingly. They’ve won six of seven and are making plays on both sides of the ball. This is a team that can go a long way.

MEANWHILE, BACK AT THE RANCH…
Clinch doesn’t always mean clutch.
Green Bay found itself in the playoffs with its win over Seattle, but they weren’t the only ones in position to alter their playoff situations Sunday. How did they get to that point? Well, the Giants made their case for elimination in the strongest way possible against the Panthers. Playing their final game in Giants Stadium, the same place that once housed the likes of Lawrence Taylor and Phil Simms, Big Blue got smothered by the sub-.500 Panthers, who were missing their starting quarterback and running back (must be a common theme in the NFC South–the same has happened to both Atlanta and Tampa Bay at some point this season). No matter: Jonathan Stewart gashed New York’s defense for 206 yards, taking the heat off young QB Matt Moore, who ended up throwing touchdowns to three different receivers (Steve Smith, who broke his arm on the TD, Muhsin Muhammad, and rarely-implemented H-back Jeff King).

Tony Romo has just won two consecutive road games in December. Time to start calling him clutch, right?

Dallas took advantage later that night with a road shutout of hated rival Washington. It’s hard to really tell if Dallas’ offense is playing exceptionally well or just doing enough to win, but their defense has come alive the last two weeks. I’ve mentioned before the rise of cornerback Mike Jenkins, but let’s also take time to credit the incredibly speedy recovery of defensive end/nightmare DeMarcus Ware, who was carted off the field only two weeks ago with what looked like a season-ending (or career-threatening) neck injury. As for Washington, they only play like they’re injured. OK, so they’re missing Pro Bowlers Chris Samuels, Clinton Portis, and Chris Cooley. But that doesn’t explain the years of neglect on the team’s back seven (DeAngelo Hall is a waste) nor its inability to develop Jason Campbell or find a suitable long-term replacement. Dallas hosts Philadelphia next week for the NFC East division crown.

How did it get to that point? Well, Philadelphia held off a feverish Denver comeback to win the Battle of Dawk Knight. My buddy Brendan announced after a fantastic Eagles drive culminated in a touchdown to DeSean “Bomberman” Jackson (damn it, I will make that nickname stick!) that Donovan McNabb has to be a Pro Bowl QB this year. Does he make the cut behind Drew Brees and Brett Favre, ahead of Rodgers or Romo? Statistically, Rodgers is better, but you gotta think playing in that market and (potentially) leading the Eagles to a first-round bye will raise his stock considerably. Did I say first-round bye? Too true, Vikings fans, as Minnesota fell in overtime to Chicago, its third straight road loss. Now the Eagles control their destiny in regards to a week off between the regular and the post-season (note: Dallas or Arizona could also claim the first-round bye with help). It doesn’t bode well for the Vikings that their pass defense has been burned on the edges for two straight weeks. It’s not the cornerbacks; it’s the safeties arriving late, biting on play-action, or being aligned out of position.

The painter of the AFC playoff picture must be a fan of abstraction.
It’s a little hard to tell what we’re looking at, to say the least. One thing it makes more sense than: Nickelback winning Artist of the Decade by Billboard. Nothing like repackaging the same chord progressions for four straight albums! Speaking of frustratingly repetitive trends, the Dolphins continued their annual fall from grace in December (Yes, I’m aware Miami edged New England for the division last year, but did you watch Chad Pennington get mauled by Baltimore in the playoffs? This wouldn’t have happened if Bernard Pollard doesn’t Tonya Harding all over Tom Brady’s knee). Miami got kicked in the ass by Houston, and that 27-20 final score doesn’t do the game justice. Matt Schaub was impeccable in the first half, slicing apart Miami’s supposedly strong secondary. Listen, you knew Chad Henne was not built to lead comebacks. He’s more A.J. Feeley than Dan Marino (or Jay Fiedler, for that matter). Houston’s still technically alive for a playoff spot but need lots of help. Is it a moral victory if they finish 9-7 and clinch the franchise’s first winning season? Hell no! They had plenty of opportunities to win, and this is Houston’s eighth year in the league. You know what the Jaguars and Panthers were doing in their second year? Going to conference championships, that’s what. Moral victory my eye.

I spent a good portion of the early afternoon absorbing both the Baltimore/Pittsburgh game and a buffalo chicken dip my friend’s father prepared. Only one of these things was satisfying until the very end. Don’t get me wrong, BAL/PIT was great fun to watch, and Steelers fans will take any victory they can (they’re already playing with house money after the “60 Minutes with Mike Wallace” win over Green Bay). But you kind of cringe knowing that Derrick Mason dropped that easy touchdown, or that an illegal contact call on Frank Walker (Packers castaway for a reason) put the final “touch” on the game. On the contrary, there was no cringing with buffalo chicken dip.

What else happened? More of the same: Indianapolis refuses to bite on national drama and New England wins the division. The Colts are no longer undefeated thanks in large part to coach Jim Caldwell’s decisions to lift Peyton Manning in lieu of the sucky Curtis Painter and to deactivate defensive end Robert Mathis. Yeah, the Colts are a legitimate Super Bowl contender, but this team already got one of those a few years ago. Why not try to do something extraordinary instead? Think of it as truly altruistic: America would no longer be required to hear from career backup and national pest Mercury Morris. The last team to come oh-so-close, New England, was back to their old tricks Sunday, demolishing Jacksonville 35-7. After watching Tom Brady find a wide open Randy Moss for the second time, my friend Devin said, “It seems like whenever I watch the Patriots, I’m stunned that they ever lose a game.” If Brady gets time in the pocket, look out, AFC. (By the way, imagine this scenario for the playoffs: Cincy grabs the 3-seed and Denver and Pittsburgh sneak in to the wild card spots, setting up first-round games of Pittsburgh/Cincy and Denver/New England, a.k.a. a repeat of crushing 2006 playoff losses by the Bengals and Patriots. Someone get Kimo von Oelhoffen and Ben Watson on the line.)

THE NO-HUDDLE…

He won ten games, a feat never before accomplished by a professional quarterback. That’s why he makes the big bucks.

Shocking, I know, that Matt Cassel would underperform yet again for the Chiefs, throwing yet another fourth-quarter interception in a loss to the Bengals, who won the AFC North. Kansas City’s decision to give up a high draft pick and give a quarterback with no playoff experience a huge contract would be more stupefying if the Bears hadn’t upped the ante by doing the same thing with Jay Cutler but for more money…It was a clean sweep for the state of Ohio on Sunday, as the Browns beat the Raiders. Highlight of the game: Sebastien Janikowski successfully kicked a 61-yard field goal. I think for the best interests of both fan clubs, Eric Mangini should have met Tom Cable at halftime and wagered the game on whether or not Janikowski could do double-or-nothing…Who dat gonna beat them Saints? Shockingly, it’s the Buccaneers, who rattled Drew Brees enough (and injured Pierre Thomas) to hold the Saints to 3 points after the first quarter…The Falcons pushed toward their idiosyncratic franchise goal of first back-to-back winning seasons with a decisive win over the Bills. Buffalo, that’s what you get for starting Brian Brohm…I’m sure Rams fans (all eight of them) watched with delight as the Cardinals destroyed their team, all but ensuring the top pick will be headed to St. Louis. Too bad Jake Locker returned for his senior year…Congrats to the Titans, who made Christmas parties around the nation a little more boring by failing to register a pulse against the Chargers…The 49ers beat the Lions in a game so universally unmemorable, you’ll have forgotten who I was writing about by the time you read the period at the end of this sentence.

30 SECONDS OF FAME

I’ve been saving this one for a perfectly opportune occasion, even though it’s been out for quite some time. After witnessing that 41-9 drubbing in the swamps of New Jersey, it shall be unleashed:

Click here to view the embedded video.

We’ve all laughed as that commercial has been preceded by a WTF-worthy interception by Eli himself, but his shaky performance this year gives the ad a special flavor. My only wish is that Citizen produced a follow-up spot that shows Eli doing that twitchy shoulder-jerk move that he does after another boneheaded play with the caption “‘Professional’ quarterback,” replete with ironic quotation marks.

WHAT I’M WATCHING NEXT WEEK:

It’s the last week of the season, so you best believe I’m catching those games that have playoff implications. I’ll tune in to Steelers/Dolphins and Texans/Patriots as well as Sunday night’s Bengals/Jets game if it’s still significant by 8:20 PM. The best game resides in Dallas, as the Cowboys tussle with the Eagles in a game that has the potential for huge residual effects on the NFC postseason.

The Redskins sure play like a giant sack of…coal.

All of us here at the Six-Pack Central HQ (OK, so it’s just me) hope you spent your day off work with family and friends, filled with merriment. If you had to work, it’s probably because you’re one of the essential personnel that helps lubricate our society to function as smoothly as it is. Hats off to you, policemen, firemen, doctors and nurses, utilities workers, and everyone else torn away from the hearth today to work. (Note: my buddy Brendan, who normally works a 2 AM shift at a local TV station, was called in to work a 9-to-5 today. Go figure.)

The football weekend starts early with a Yuletide treat: the hottest team in the league not named the Colts, aka the San Diego Chargers and their nine-game winning streak, travel to Nashville to face the Titans. Then there’s a full slate on Sunday with all sorts of playoff-implicating throwdowns, followed by the last “Monday Night Football” game of the year, Minnesota at Chicago. I plan on parking myself in front of a giant projection screen television and soaking up every last drop of buffalo sauce from my wings this weekend (from Joe’s Wings and Wieners, and wouldn’t you know it, the comment from 2006 on that page is from my good friend/wing connoisseur Devin). I hope you have just as satisfying a weekend.

This is going to be a truncated edition of the Six-Pack (more like a Three-Pack) this week, but I’ll return on Tuesday with a full version of the Righteous Wrap-Up. As always, friends, feel free to leave a comment in the box below or e-mail me: selfserve@gmail.com. I can also be found in the Twitterverse @greenbayblog.

SEAHAWKS AT PACKERS

1. Pro Bowl fan voting has closed for the year, and I’ll be stunned if Aaron Rodgers doesn’t make it at the quarterback position. All he’s done is throw for 4,000 yards yet again, making him the first QB ever to throw for the 4k mark in his first two seasons as a starter. Tack on 28 touchdowns (2nd in the league) and 7 interceptions (tied for the lowest in the league), and I do believe you have the recipe for a franchise quarterback. Yes, he does have the benefit of having one of the best and deepest wide receiver corps in the game with the dentally-inspiring Donald Driver and Greg Jennings leading the way, but he also has to manage the game without a threatening rushing attack and with defenders constantly in his face. While the sack rate has slowed tremendously in the last month, Rodgers still leads the league in sacks taken with 49. Yet as this GBPG article explores, Rodgers keeps on making it back to the huddle and doesn’t ever berate his offensive linemen or coaches. Eat your heart out, Favre-fanatics.


Perhaps Steve Largent can suit up for the lowly Hawks.

2. The Seahawks are pretty much a lost cause this year. The rock on their offensive line, Walter Jones, is out for the year and in fact may retire. Matt Hasselbeck has had to overcome his own set of injuries, and it doesn’t help that no one fears a running back committee comprised of Julius Jones and Justin Forsett. Their defense, already a weak spot, got weaker when first-round draft choice Aaron Curry limped off the field weeks ago and has yet to return to the starting line-up. The dearth of talent and the apathy of the team was never more apparent than the home loss last weekend to the previously 1-12 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. (Fun Fact: Tampa Bay has beaten two teams this year, Seattle and Green Bay.) The Packers were torched for 503 yards by Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers’ spread offense. I don’t think Seattle can spread their offense any thinner. Behind T.J. Houshmanzadeh, their top wide receiver is: ___________. It’s hard to say considering injuries to Deion Branch, Nate Burleson, and Ben Obomanu. Maybe the ‘Hawks will roll out backup quarterback/utilityman Seneca Wallace at WR as they have in similar emergencies.
3. It’s hard to see an outcome any different than what Vegas has predicted (Green Bay comes in as two-touchdown favorites), but the Packers cannot afford to let off the throttle this week. A win nearly secures a playoff berth for Green Bay, depending on the outcomes of the Panthers/Giants game at the same time and the Cowboys/Redskins game later that night. If either the Cowboys or Giants lose and Green Bay wins, it’s a lock we’ll see the Green and Yellow in the postseason. If all three win, it’s on week 17 to settle things. I’m confident Green Bay gives what will likely be the last crowd to attend a game at Lambeau this season something good to remember.

Packers by thirteen.

WEEK SIXTEEN PREDICTIONS!

CHARGERS AT TITANS (Tonight, 7:30 PM, NFLN)
This is the first of what I’m dubbing the Fake AFC Playoff Series, owing to the number of games on the schedule that are either potential playoff matchups or will act as seeding/knockout games. The Chargers clinched their division last week but are still looking to lock up a first-round bye, which they can do with either a win tonight or a loss by the Patriots. The Titans last week became the first team to start 0-6 and crawl their way back to a .500 record. Their climb doesn’t stop here–they still have an outside shot to make the playoffs, which would speak to the growth of Vince Young as a playcaller, the emergence of Chris Johnson as the league’s number-one all-purpose (and fantasy football) threat, and a physical defense led by players such as Cortland Finnegan (begin again) and Chris Hope. They’ll have a hard time corralling the tandem of LaDainian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles without LB Keith Bulluck, a sure tackler and a leader in the middle of that defense. He’s out for the year with a torn ACL. I think San Diego’s a bit too strong for the Titans to overcome tonight, and even though Tennessee’s season has to be considered a disappointment after dropping from 13-3 to out of the playoffs, there’s a great deal of optimism to be had moving into 2010.
Chargers by three.

BILLS AT FALCONS

Brian Brohm will have Bills fans pining for the illustrious J.P. Losman era.

Both teams have been eliminated already, which goes a long way to explaining how the hell Brian Brohm is starting at quarterback for the Bills. Packers fans will recognize Brohm as one of their second-round picks two years ago, a perplexing choice since the organization had just cast off Brett Favre and placed Aaron Rodgers squarely at the helm. Brohm never showed promise in two training camps and preseasons and was summarily cut in September. He gets a chance to rejuvenate himself in Buffalo after injuries and ineffectiveness plagued Trent Edwards and Ryan Fitzpatrick. I just have this feeling, who knows why, that Brohm’s first start will not be one for the history books.
Falcons by ten.

CHIEFS AT BENGALS
The Chiefs are one of the three worst teams in the league, and yes, I’m aware of Tampa, Detroit, St. Louis, and Cleveland. The Bengals have some serious pock marks, mostly a curious lack of a passing offense. But Ced Benson should have no problems carving up a defense softer than Michael Jackson’s nose (too soon?).
Bengals by thirteen.

RAIDERS AT BROWNS
My hope for this game is that CBS cameras catch new president Mike Holmgren in his box with a look on his face like Guy Pearce at the end of Memento. “Wait, I did what? How did I end up here?” Meanwhile, JaMarcus Russell throws a game-winning touchdown to beat a hated rival on the road and his reward is to be benched in favor of Charlie Frye this week. Look out, Ryan Leaf! Can I predict a scoreless tie? Is that fashionable?
Browns by one.

TEXANS AT DOLPHINS
Fake AFC Playoff Series: Game 2. Left for dead by me and many others a few weeks ago, the Texans have done just enough by beating the Seahawks and Rams the last two weeks to move back to .500 and keeping themselves in the playoff picture, at least mathematically. They draw a tough road assignment, heading to South Florida to face the Dolphins who have the inside track for the six 7-7 teams in the AFC who currently find themselves a game out of the wild card slots. This game will be strength versus strength: the Texans pass-happy offense and the Dolphins impressive secondary, featuring impressive rookie cornerback Vontae Davis. I’ve seen enough of Matt Schaub this season to know that he locks on Andre Johnson when he feels nervous – it’s understandable considering the injuries to his other two major threats, tight end Owen Daniels and running back Steve Slaton – and he got away with it the last two weeks. The Dolphins are better than the Seahawks and Rams combined.
Dolphins by seven.

JAGUARS AT PATRIOTS

Don’t believe those terrible rumors that Randy Moss’ beard is quitting on him.

Fake AFC Playoff Series: Game 3. The Jags are another of that 7-7 crew cluttering the AFC playoff picture, riding the legs of stud running back Maurice Jones-Drew. “Pocket Hercules” is third in the league in rushing yardage, behind only the aforementioned Chris Johnson and Steven Jackson of St. Louis. That’s right, he’s got more yardage than the media-beloved Adrian Peterson. The Patriots have long been able to keep defenses honest via Randy Moss’ vertical threat and Wes Welker’s horizontal threat; the two of them have been the X-axis and Y-axis that keeps New England moving while their running game chugs along mediocre as ever. It’s not that running back Laurence Maroney is a bad player – he’s actually got a nose for contact and some shifty hips – it’s that secretly, the Patriots’ offensive line is geared to keep Tom Brady upright, not driving defenders out of position. It’s not a bad strategy to take considering Brady’s elite talent, and it usually works to win games when the defense holds their own. But the Patriots’ D is aging and has for years been in need of some talent infusion by way of youth. Jerod Mayo and Brandon Meriwether are fine players, but they can only do so much. I suspect Brady and the Pats will win this game relatively easily, but this isn’t the juggernaut Pats team of the mid-00’s that we’re used to.
Patriots by ten.

BUCCANEERS AT SAINTS
Terrible team against an incredible team. Tough call.
Saints by sixteen.

RAVENS AT STEELERS
Fake AFC Playoff Series: Game 4. A month ago, the Steelers took the Ravens to overtime with Dennis Dixon filling in for the concussed Ben Roethlisberger. A day later, Hines Ward shook up the locker room by suggesting that perhaps Roethlisberger should have toughed it out and taken the field (note to Hines: it’s all well and good to be tough, but you sound like an idiot when you suggest brain injury can be shrugged off). That was in the midst of a five-game losing streak that nearly put the kibosh on Pittsburgh’s chances at repeating in the Super Bowl. One absurd two-minute drill against Green Bay later, and the Steelers are in position to push themselves back in contention with a home win against Baltimore. The Ravens have feasted on the likes of Detroit and Chicago the past few weeks but will face a real challenge this week. I like Joe Flacco’s chances with Todd Heap this week but the Ravens don’t have the receiving corps to really challenge Pittsburgh’s deficiencies in the secondary. I doubt Roethlisberger throws for another 500 or even 400 yards this week, but he won’t need to: the Ravens can be exposed down the seams. Seems like another heady week is in order for Heath Miller.
Steelers by eight.

PANTHERS AT GIANTS
One year ago, the Giants bested the Panthers 36-30 in a week 16 overtime thriller to secure homefield advantage. It’s a bit different this time around: the Panthers are playing their second-string quarterback and are relying on players like the diminutive Tyrell Sutton and tight ends Jeff King and Donte Rosario to make plays, while the Giants are currently 7th in the conference and needing help to sneak into a wild card spot. Eli Manning has played picture-perfect the last few weeks, and his performance on Monday night against the Redskins was child’s play. However, these Panthers are a proud bunch and have a lot of fight left in them. Did you notice how unblockable Julius Peppers looked against the vaunted Minnesota offensive line? The Giants would be best served to leave Kevin Boss or Ahmad Bradshaw in to help take the load off their line.
Giants by ten.

RAMS AT CARDINALS
Do the Cardinals want to be the number three or the number four seed? Do they really care? That’s about all Arizona has left to play for. Coach Ken Whisenhunt will probably play guys like Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald, and Adrian Wilson a little bit before pulling them as they’ve all battled injury problems this year. Lucky for the Cardinals, their last two games of the year are at home. Combined with their first-round home date already assured and Whisenhunt’s squad won’t have to leave the dry and warm comforts of southern Arizona for nearly a month. Look for the Rams to run Steven Jackson heavily, mostly because any other option may result in the quickest takeover of field position since Poland in WWII.
Cardinals by twelve.

LIONS AT 49ERS
Matthew Stafford: season-ending surgery, two wins. But hey, he scored a bunch of touchdowns on Cleveland that one week! The Niners joined the list of teams mathematically eliminated when the Cardinals beat these very Lions last week and came out flat in Philadelphia. I’m not the one who has to determine if Alex Smith is a salvageable quarterback moving ahead into next year, but it seems to me that if you give him decent protection, he’ll find Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree. If you don’t, he’ll force the ball into areas he shouldn’t. Luckily for Smith, the Lions rank 29th in sacks.
49ers by fourteen.

BRONCOS AT EAGLES

In a stunning and brilliant strategy, Brian Dawkins spearheads the laegue’s first “Trojan Horse Defense” in his return to Philadelphia.

This one’s not an AFC playoff preview nor an NFC one but will have a decided impact on both. The Brian Dawkins Bowl if won by the Broncos would more or less wrap up a wild card spot; if won by the Eagles, who have already clinched a spot in the postseason, could spell an NFC East title if the Cowboys lose later that night. Philadelphia also has a shot at catching Minnesota for a first-round bye should the Vikings stumble this week against the Bears or next week against the Giants. Seems like a while ago the NFL was astounded by the Broncos 6-0 start and we were all, to use the parlance of Denny Green, crowning they asses the AFC West title. Well, Denver went and lost 6 of their next 8 games and the Chargers ran away with the division. You have to like the way the Eagles have played the last month and a half. They’re on a five-game winning streak without Brian Westbrook (concussions), without a full cadre of receivers (DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, and Kevin Curtis have all missed time with injuries), with midseason pickup Will Witherspoon playing the middle linebacker/defensive captain spot, and minus disgruntled cornerback Lito Sheppard (traded to the Jets in the offseason). How dare those sneaky Eagles make us forget they’ve been to five conference championships in the last eight years! Maybe Andy Reid’s recent contract extension isn’t as oddly-timed as some of us thought.
Eagles by nine.

JETS AT COLTS
Fake AFC Playoff Series: Game 5. The final game of the fake AFC playoffs features the league’s 5th-best rusher in Thomas Jones paired up with the second-worst quarterback in terms of interceptions (Mark Sanchez) and the league’s leader in passing touchdowns (Peyton Manning, actually tied with Drew Brees with 33) paired up with the league’s weakest rushing attack at 86 yards per game. In short, this game is RUN AT PASS. Since this is 2009, I’ll take PASS by a decent margin. Colts keep the undefeated streak going.
Colts by ten.

COWBOYS AT REDSKINS (8:20 PM, NBC, SNF)
The Redskins are tough to get a hang of. OK, not really–they’re bad. But exactly how bad they are depends on the game. They nearly beat the Saints but got walloped by the Giants. They were the first team to beat the Broncos this year but got stomped by the Eagles. Last time the Cowboys and Redskins met, Dallas won a 7-6 thriller. Surely you stayed awake the entirety of that game! Who knows what offense Washington will throw out, but then again, you could say the same for Dallas. By beating the Saints last week, Tony Romo ended his abysmal December stretch and raised a few eyebrows. I don’t know why, especially replaying Jason Campbell eating turf over and over in my mind, but I have a feeling Jim Zorn and Co. will have an scheme to send Dallas to yet another late-year loss. I like the Redskins as my UPSET SPECIAL! and to create opportunities for the Eagles, Giants, and Packers.
Redskins by six.

VIKINGS AT BEARS (8:30, ESPN, MNF)
Old Man Favre, the 40-year-old Viking, takes his show outdoors for the second straight week. Against Carolina the offense looked terribly out of sync–and what’s with Adrian Peterson lately? He hasn’t topped the 100-yard plateau since November 15th against Detroit. Sure, he’s had the touchdowns, but he hasn’t had the game-breaking big gainers. The last two roadies Minnesota has had, “All Day” has been held to 54 yards on 25 carries and a single touchdown, a 1-yard plunge against the Panthers. That’s not to say he’s been out of the gameplan: in those two games, he’s garnered 119 yards receiving. I don’t think the Bears are strong enough in any facet of the game to slow down the Vikings, so the only team that can beat Minnesota this week is Minnesota. Limit the turnovers, win time of possession and field position, and the Vikings win the game.
Vikings by fourteen.

Last week: 11-4
Overall: 153-70
Upset Special: 7-8

Just call Mike Wallace “Mr. Sixty Minutes.”

Whoa. Did you catch that? Another NFL weekend zoomed by us, but maybe you didn’t catch it if you were one of those people caught up in the massive snow-dump Mother Nature flung on the East Coast. If you weren’t able to dig yourself out, you were in for a treat as this past weekend gave us a veritable jubilee of drama, surprises, and triumphs. We’ll start with the best game of the week, Green Bay at Pittsburgh, before tackling the other 14 games. Feel free to leave your angry/pleasant/skeptical comments in the box provided for such queries below.

THINGS I’M STILL PONDERING…

• We’ll start with The Play. You know which one I’m talking about–Mike Wallace tucked toward the side of the end zone, catching a beautiful back-shoulder pass on a simple fade-stop route with no time remaining on the clock, dime cornerback Josh Bell in decent position but simply unable to keep Wallace from toe-tapping his way to a victory. Remind anyone of another great Steelers catch? We all saw that and marveled at the thrill of the Pittsburgh victory and the heartbreaking reactions by the Packers players, who would have won had football games been invented to last only 59 minutes and 57 seconds. Let’s rewind that drive a bit, though, lest we forget how it came to Roethlisberger’s 18-yard beauty. What about wayyy before that, on fourth down when Roethlisberger connected with Santonio Holmes on a huge 32-yard play? Or what about that interception by Jarrett Bush nullified by an obvious illegal chuck by Brandon Chillar, he of the new contract extension? You could even look no further than the play before the touchdown, when Cullen Jenkins had his hands around Ben Roethlisberger but was unable to bring him to the turf. The result of the play was an incomplete pass, but if Jenkins is able to sack Roethlisberger, the Steelers are unable to stop the clock and the game likely ends on a stellar defensive play instead of an offensive stunner.


Somewhere in Arizona, Larry Fitzgerald is empathizing with Donald Driver’s misery.

• When is 383 yards and 3 passing touchdowns (1 rushing) not enough to win? When the opposing quarterback throws for 503 yards and 3 passing touchdowns of his own. Aaron Rodgers roused the Packers offense, which lacked any consistent running threat, to five scoring drives. Ben Roethlisberger was determined to match Rodgers’ efforts and top them. Despite a tendency of holding the ball too long leading to five Packers sacks, Roethlisberger’s patience and field vision helped him find five different Steelers for pass plays of 25 yards or longer. So much for a defensive struggle, huh? Two of the league’s top-five defenses surrendered a total of 973 net yards, 73 total points, and a whopping 35 points in the final thirteen-and-a-half minutes.
• I don’t know how much longer head coach Mike McCarthy and special teams coach Shawn Slocum can pretend like Mason Crosby is sound fundamentally. He is an absolute liability in the offensive game, an anxiety seen in playcalling as early in the year as the Thanksgiving day game in Detroit, when McCarthy opted to go for a fourth-and-four instead of attempting a makeable field goal. Crosby missed a 34-yarder, well within any NFL kicker’s range, making it the fourth straight game he’s missed a field goal (all of which have been less than 45 yards). The Packers dodged bullets during their five-game win streak, but perhaps none as glaring as the kicking game. Sunday, another three points might have made the difference. Steelers kicker Jeff Reed had the advantage of familiarity, kicking in the swirling winds and tenuous footholds of Heinz Field, and his three field goals helped Pittsburgh keep its season alive. But there’s no reason to suggest that Crosby is any longer a reliable kicker. He’s only had four games this season (only one since week 6!) where he’s made all his field goal attempts. The coaching staff is going to have to seriously consider bringing in kickers for a mid-week tryout. Could installing a kicker off the street really have worse consequences than sticking with Crosby at this point?
• How did this wild and entertaining game affect the playoff picture? For one, it handed Green Bay’s rivals, the Minnesota Vikings, a divisional crown an hour before the Vikings took the field at Carolina for their game. Yet the Packers weren’t going to be serious contenders to snatch the division away; their focus is on securing a wild card berth. Despite the loss, Green Bay is 9-5 and still in the slot for the fifth seed owing to their head-to-head win against Dallas (also 9-5). If the Packers win next week at home against slumping Seattle and Dallas or the New York Giants lose, the Packers clinch a spot. The Steelers ended their five-game losing streak and pumped a little life into their flagging postseason chances. Pittsburgh is now one of six AFC members at 7-7, all of whom are one game back of Denver and Baltimore (both 8-6). The Steelers obviously need to win out to have any chance, and their conference record of 4-6 really puts them at a disadvantage compared to teams like Miami and New York, both of whom are a game better at 5-5. But you can only control so much, and the Steelers can take a big leap forward by beating the Ravens at home next week.

MEANWHILE, BACK AT THE RANCH…

Bravo! Encore!
Packers/Steelers wasn’t the only game with a thrilling finish. We can start with Saturday’s upset in New Orleans by the Cowboys. Dallas led 24-3 going into the final frame, but as we all know, Drew Brees can orchestrate a scoring drive in a hurry. Brees led the Saints to a touchdown in 3:03, then another in 3:23 after a Cowboys punt. The Saints had one last shot to drive the field and tie the game up, but I guess two minutes with no time outs was a time constraint the Saints had no answers for.

In San Diego, the Bengals played with heavy hearts but nonetheless poured those hearts out taking the Chargers to the limit. Chad Ochocinco had a nice-looking touchdown but Philip Rivers, Antonio Gates, and Vincent Jackson were too much for otherwise solid Bengals CBs Leon Hall and Jonathan Joseph. A booming 52-yard kick by Nate Kaeding was the difference as the Bolts secured another AFC West title, 27-24. That title wouldn’t have been up for grabs if it weren’t for Denver’s loss at home to the Raiders. And who was that leading the winning drive for the Bay Pirates? Not the Human Kielbasa, Bruce Gradkowski, not starting quarterback Charlie Frye, nor was it even J.P. Losman! That would be the much-maligned JaMarcus Russell, coming off the bench to toss a late 10-yard touchdown to Chaz Schilens–yes, that Chaz Schilens who similarly caught the late game-winner in Pittsburgh. (Fun fact: Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers combined for more passing yardage five minutes into their game than the Raiders QBs had during their entire sixty minutes.)

Joshua Cribbs, Antonio Gates, James Harrison: what is in the water at Kent State?

Those plucky Titans won their seventh game in eight weeks, besting their fellow wild card candidates the Miami Dolphins in overtime. The Fins scored two touchdowns in the fourth quarter to force the extra frame and even won the coin toss, but when Michael Griffin grabbed Chad Henne’s third interception of the game it set up a win for Tennessee. Finally, we move to Kansas City, where an unlikely emotion emerged from the Browns/Chiefs game: excitement. The two teams came into the week with a combined five yards, but this one looked like a heavyweight slugfest. Joshua Cribbs set the tone with two electrifying kickoff returns of 100+ yards, giving him 8 for his career, a new NFL record. Jamaal Charles continues to pick up the slack that Larry Johnson left behind, rushing for 154 yards on 25 carries and adding a touchdown. But all of that is prelude to the absolutely monster day that Jerome Harrison had: 34 attempts, 286 unbelievable yards, and the final three Browns touchdowns of the day. In the process of lifting Cleveland to a 41-34 win, Harrison broke the team single-game rushing record once held by the immortal Jim Brown.

Because kicking yourself can only go so far…
What’s up with NFL kickers this season? The general benchmark for an NFL kicker is to make no less than 80% of his kicks. Currently, a whopping 14 of 32 (44%) franchises have missed 20% or more of their field goal attempts this year. The list is surprisingly balanced between playoff contenders and also-rans: only 6 of those 14 teams whiffing on kicks have been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs (Detroit, Atlanta, San Francisco, Tampa Bay, Carolina, and St. Louis). Two (Indianapolis and New Orleans) are elite squads who have already locked up first-round byes and three (Green Bay, Baltimore, Cincinnati) are teams on the verge of clinching playoff spots. We’ve already seen two kickers in Baltimore’s Steve Hauschka and Washington’s Shaun Suisham get the axe after high-profile misses late in games cost their teams potential wins. Can Green Bay’s Mason Crosby and Dallas’ Nick Folk really be that far behind?

A minor programming note:
Due to the hubbub of the holiday season, this week’s preview post (also known affectionately as the Six-Pack ’round these parts) will be a bit truncated. You know, gotta find time to wrap (or, uh, purchase) presents, make face time with the family, drink a little nog, so on and so forth. But don’t worry, lovely readers: there will still be a post with a preview of every game nestled under your tree come Friday afternoon, so you can read that when you’ve tired of pretending that you really appreciate that hideous zip-up sweater with the elastic waist your auntie gave you.

THE NO-HUDDLE…

Andre Johnson, the best wide receiver you probably forgot to vote for on your Pro Bowl ballot.

Maybe the Vikings are allergic to Sunday nights. Their 26-7 loss to the Panthers this past Sunday evening along with their loss two weeks ago to Arizona means that on SNF their point differential is -36, and in all other games, it’s +166…Andre Johnson keeps making his case that he might just be the best, if not the most underrated, wide receiver in the league. He caught 9 balls for 196 yards in the Texans too-close win over the Rams, bringing his three-game total to 27 catches, 490 yards and 3 touchdowns…The Lions made things interesting in their loss to the Cardinals, and while it was Kurt Warner and Anquan Boldin who connected for the winning score, the real hero was rookie RB Beanie Wells, who topped the 100-yard mark and strengthened his position as starter over Tim Hightower. Speaking of rookie impacts, the Lions have to be continuously impressed with FS Louis Delmas, who returned a pick 100 yards for a score. He can be out of position and occasionally goes for the highlight-reel hit instead of the sure tackle, but you can see him growing more comfortable in the position each game…The huge snowstorm in the Northeast shifted several games to later slots, meaning most of the region was subjected to the double-whammy snorefest of Falcons/Jets on FOX and Patriots/Bills on CBS. The Falcons and Jets combined for 13 points–in other words, for most of the game, the punt total matched or exceeded the point total. The Patriots beat the Bills 17-10, or did the Bills beat the Bills? 11 penalties for 124 yards and a passing game that refused to go downfield signaled the demise of Buffalo. Tom Brady had an awful day (he combined for 11 passing yards in the first and fourth quarters) but still got the win…From what I caught of the Niners/Eagles game (it was on at the same time as GB/PIT, give me a break), it looked like DeSean Jackson and Asante Samuel were the only players that mattered…The Bears may have wished their delayed flight to Baltimore ultimately got canceled, because the Ravens absolutely smoked them off the field. Joe Flacco tossed four touchdowns – two to fan favorite Todd Heap – and Jay Cutler was intercepted thrice, pushing his league-leading total to 25…Not wanting to be outdone, Seahawks QB Matt Hasselbeck had the worst day, getting picked off four times en route to an embarrassing home loss to the Buccaneers…

30 SECONDS OF FAME
A lot of disgusting commercials to sift through this week. Lukewarm Wilson was back at it again, debuting in another dribbling AT&T commercial, but I’ve already delved into that realm. Bud Light’s “Tailgate Tested” series misses the mark on so many levels, but criticizing Bud Light’s ad campaigns is too easy. So what have I come up with this week?

Click here to view the embedded video.

I’ve reached my breaking point with Apple’s “Join the Hipster Parade” iPod commercials (does the wardrobe room for that ad agency consist only of skirts and leggings for girls, cardigans and skinny jeans for guys?). The worst inclusion, as my buddy Devin astutely pointed out, is the song “Bourgeois Shangri-La” from artist Miss Li, which sounds like it was written for the sole purpose of being put into an annoying bubbly iPod commercial. If you can tell me what the hell a “bourgeois Shangri-La” would be, apart from a silly attempt at sounding intellectual, let me know.

WHAT I’M WATCHING NEXT WEEK:

There’s a whole slew of games with playoff implications in week 16, so take your pick: Jags at Patriots, Ravens at Steelers, and Texans at Dolphins all require your immediate attention. I’ll be taking a keen interest in the Brian Dawkins Bowl: Broncos at Eagles, the only interconference game with meaning for both the AFC and NFC playoff pictures.

No Thursday night game this week (nor for the rest of the year), so we retire the short-lived but entertaining segment “Special Thunder’s Day Pick!” I assume it was as good for you as it was for me. I hope everyone has a great holiday week full of merriment and myrrh.

Cullen “Don’t Call Me Jennings” Jenkins is one of many unsung heroes among Green Bay’s top-five defense.

‘Tis the season for playoff-caliber football. If your team is still competing for one of the twelve playoff spots, this time of year is fraught with disappointment, relief, ecstasy, anxiety, and all points in between. If your nerves are feeling a little shot, add a shot (of rum or brandy, your choice) to your grandmama’s egg nog and sink into an easy chair. That might help you get through December, Cowboys fans. For me, I like watching my game leaning forward, volume blasting, hands resting on my laptop’s keyboard to furiously research Ryan Grant’s yards per carry or Charles Woodson’s latest Pro Bowl tally (vote for him now, damn it!). However you do it, do it with your eyes peeled. You won’t want to miss the final leg of the 2009 season. First up, a preview of Sunday’s critical Green Bay/Pittsburgh showdown at Heinz Field followed by a preview of and prediction for every other game. Got something to say? Put together some sentences in the comment box below, or if you prefer, via e-mail: selfserve@gmail.com. For all you Twitteratis, you can follow me @greenbayblog.

PACKERS AT STEELERS

1. Remember the children’s game Chutes and Ladders? It’s really a simplistic design: some spaces allow the player to leapfrog the linearity of the board to a more advanced stage, and others drop the player to a previously traversed location to force them to travel the same path once more. The Packers have been climbing ladders the last five weeks; in that same time span, the Steelers have been doing nothing but falling down chutes. Green Bay has beaten Dallas, San Francisco, and Baltimore at home, as well as road games against divisional rivals Detroit and Chicago to rise to 9-4 and in position for a wild card berth. In fact, a win Sunday coupled with either a Dallas or New York Giants loss would clinch a playoff position. The Steelers have lost to AFC West doormats Oakland and Kansas City, as well as one loss to each of their AFC North competitors, the Ravens, Bengals, and Browns. The skid places Pittsburgh at the precarious record of 6-7. A loss to Green Bay doesn’t mean the season is mathematically finished (unless both Denver and Jacksonville win), but let’s be honest: this is a season-breaker for the Steelers. Lucky for them, the NFC North has been kind this year–Mike Tomlin’s crew is 3-0 against the division so far this year.
2. Last week, I suggested that despite the cold weather, field conditions likely resembling a flooded corn field, and questionable blocking, Green Bay would defy convention and rely on a pass-first game. As Ryan Grant ran for two touchdowns and controlled the pace of the game, I hope you realized never to listen to me. Seriously, I was as shocked as you to see Aaron Rodgers throw for less than 200 yards and no touchdowns for only the second time in his short career and first since November 9th of last year. This week has to be the week that my analysis proves true, right? All the conditions present at Soldier Field last week (choppy turf, cold weather, hostile crowd) will be there, if not worse, at Heinz Field this week. Most importantly, this game matches the top two run defenses against each other. Pittsburgh (allowing 84.9 ypg) holds the top ranking by the slimmest of margins over Green Bay (allowing 85 ypg). Now that I’ve said that, you can certainly expect Ryan Grant and Rashard Mendenhall to combine for four touchdowns.
3. Despite those lofty rankings, both squads will be missing key contributors to their defense. Pittsburgh lost defensive end Aaron Smith to the IR list earlier this year and the captain to their high-flying schemes, safety Troy Polamalu, is out yet again with a second injury to the same knee that felled him earlier this year. Green Bay is without cornerback Al Harris and outside linebacker Aaron Kampman, both done for this season with knee injuries. News from this week included defensive tackle Johnny Jolly being indicted a second time for felony possession of codeine in Houston. No word as of yet from the commissioner whether or not he will face disciplinary action from the league (and thereby jeopardizing his playing time for this game as well as the rest of the season), but the guess here is that the NFL will wait to see how the trial unfolds and move from there. I’ll keep readers abreast of anything from the Jolly situation if I read more. As for the effects of these situations on the defenses, I expect that Dick Lebeau and Dom Capers, the two modern wizards of the 3-4 scheme, will compensate adequately.
4. And I’m sure plenty of those defensive players are licking their chops at the potential of throwing the opposing quarterback to the turf. Rodgers, as is well documented, leads the league in sacks taken with 48. Ben Roethlisberger is third on the list with 38 sacks taken. Part of the reason these two quarterbacks, who otherwise incredibly efficient and capable under center, falter in the realm of sacks is because they use their legs to keep plays alive. I’m certain you’ve seen footage of Roethlisberger in last year’s Super Bowl getting twisted and spun by the jersey, assuredly about to take a drive-killing sack, only to pop out of the grasp of the defender to launch a first-down toss to Santonio Holmes. Rodgers loves plays that work him out of the pocket, and he’s got the cognizance to try and move the chains with a run–his 283 yards rushing are the most by any non-running back in the league.
5. You might hear a lot this week about the wide receivers in this game and for good reason. Hines Ward and Holmes have combined for 2,023 yards and 9 touchdowns this year. Donald Driver and Greg Jennings have combined for 1,742 yards and 9 touchdowns. Third options Mike Wallace (Pittsburgh) and James Jones (Green Bay) are also effective targets. But what I find most compelling is the comparison between tight ends. Pittsburgh’s Heath Miller is one of the league’s most underappreciated tight ends.
   

   Didn’t I tell you this kid would be special? DIDN’T I?

   A first-round draft pick only a few years ago, Miller is a complete package: a solid run-blocker with soft hands who acts as a wonderful safety valve and red zone target. He has 580 yards and 5 touchdowns on a team loaded with offensive talent. Jermichael Finley is not your typical tight end. He’s not much of a polished blocker and his route-running is sometimes a little lazy. But I’ve been raving about his athleticism all year for good reason. His unusual height and jumping ability make him more of a wide receiver. He’s scored 3 touchdowns on the year to go with 488 yards, nearly a third of which he’s registered in the last two games.

6. Despite what the standings say, this game will be as easy to win for Green Bay as it was easy for Hitler to take Russia. I’m thinking this is one of those games where Roethlisberger finds Ward in the back of the end zone with six seconds remaining for a ridiculous comeback win. I’ve been to Heinz Field many times (easy to do when you go to the University of Pittsburgh) and the crowd there is dedicated and raucous. I saw a Packers/Steelers preseason game with my buddy Sean a few years back and we were amazed to see the amount of people tailgating five hours before kickoff. Of a preseason game. Against a non-rival. I don’t care if the Penguins just won a Stanley Cup–Pittsburgh lives and dies by Steelers football. And they cannot abide a sixth straight loss. So it is written; so it shall be.
   Steelers by four.

WEEK FIFTEEN PREDICTIONS!

COWBOYS AT SAINTS
Will DeMarcus Ware return in time for this game? Will Tony Romo break his December curse? Will the Saints continue their undefeated season? Will Marques Colston score a touchdown and inexplicably break character, pulling a T-shirt cannon out from behind a camera man, firing wildly into the crowd shirts that say “STONE COL’ COLSTON!” In order: 50-50 shot, absolutely not, of course, and the world can only hope.
Saints by ten.

BEARS AT RAVENS
Bears fans may just want to avoid this one and take in a Blackhawks game or something. There’s less of a chance of a game-breaking turnover in one’s own zone from Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews than from Jay Cutler and Matt Forte. By the way, Rex Grossman led the Bears to the Super Bowl in 2006 with 3,200 yards passing, 23 touchdowns and 20 interceptions. Two years later, he was unceremoniously dumped and now plays backup in Houston. This year, Jay Cutler has thrown for 3,000 yards, 19 touchdowns and 22 interceptions. One of these players is a Chi-town pariah; the other is the supposed savior of the franchise. Go figure. Bears fans are so delusional when it comes to quarterbacks they talk themselves into believing Jim McMahon is one of the top-20 quarterbacks of all time. Or, at least, had one of the top-20 mullets of the 80’s.
Ravens by nine.

PATRIOTS AT BILLS
I think the last time the Bills won in this series, Drew Bledsoe had yet to be eviscerated by Mo Lewis. Poor Buffalo fans–they sit through their ownership giving an extension to Dick Freaking Jauron (I think I gave unsuspecting Bears fans more cold sweats), then axe him mid-season, replace him with a guy named Perry, then try to woo egomaniac/lover of bad tans Mike Shanahan even though everyone knows Shanahan can get more money elsewhere. Buffalo, city of beloved hot sauce, you deserve better. Since this is the equivalent of the Bills’ Super Bowl, expect Terrell Owens to actually show up and convince the city’s media into writing a series of fawning “Maybe T.O. deserves a new contract!” articles. It won’t matter. Randy Moss is going to steal the limelight after being emasculated last week, and if that should fail, the Bills don’t have any linebackers to cover Wes Welker over the middle. Don’t make me laugh, Paul Posluzsny.
Patriots by seven.

CARDINALS AT LIONS
Best line I heard about the Lions came from ESPN.com writer Jeffri Chadiha: “Bill Bidwell owns the Cardinals 363 days a year. The 49ers own them the other two days.” Are the Desert Birds an iffy proposition after being swept by San Fran this year and losing their last two roadies after starting the year 5-0 away from Glendale? Hardly. This is the same team that went 10-6 last year, had a bottom-5 running game, and a secondary you could easily expose with heady receivers. I know their record belies this statement, but this year’s Arizona squad is improved on that team.

The effects of Daunte’s Madden Curse have continued to this very day. Just look at the uniform he wears.

Of course, all of this is moot if Larry Fitzgerald’s (Pitt alum!) knee prevents him from playing at his normal Mt. Olympus-level of excellence. I think if that knee crops up, we can safely hand over 2009 to the Madden Curse. Last year, EA Sports tried to avoid the whole story by placing a retired Brett Favre on the cover. We all know what happened there. So what do they do this year? Put a player from each of the Super Bowl teams on the cover, two tough-as-nails guys who rarely if ever miss time. And they both get knee injuries. WHAT OTHER SACRIFICES DO YOU DEMAND FROM US, MADDEN GODS? Lions fans are secretly hoping Madden ‘10 has Matt Millen on the cover. That’s not a bad idea, actually: allowing a bunch of fans to vote for a special Madden cover to appease their broken karma. You could call it Madden: Vengeance Edition. You’re telling me Detroit wouldn’t plunge further into debt to see Millen suffer a broken hip slipping on a freshly-waxed Hilton lobby floor?
Cardinals by thirteen.

BROWNS AT CHIEFS
Wow. I think I’d rather watch an Indians/Royals spring training match than this. Matt Cassel: 2206 yards, 13 TD, 13 INT, 8 fumbles (although only 1 lost!). Brady Quinn (projected): 1567 yards, 10 TD, 6 INT. Get ready for some high-flying action! I’ll give the Browns this much: after their upset against Pittsburgh last week, they’ve been moved from the iron lung to intensive care. They have fight in ‘em! What the hell, I’ll throw the Dawg Pound a bone: you Brownies are my UPSET SPECIAL! of the week. Don’t disappoint.
Browns by four.

49ERS AT EAGLES
There’s snow in the forecast for the mid-Atlantic region this weekend. How exciting to see DeSean “Bomberman” Jackson (that was the winning nickname, by the by) zip through the 49ers secondary like a snowmobile! Since I’ve yet to do so this year, how about recognizing Winston Justice on the right side of the Eagles line? Last year, he got brutalized in a nationally-televised game against the Giants in which he was personally responsible for 8 sacks given up to Donovan McNabb. He was benched thereafter and it seemed that Justice would be yet another high-draft-pick bust. He’s come back this year, rededicated himself to technique, and is a pretty decent fixture on a line that’s done a better job at keeping McNabb upright. To get to the playoffs, the Niners need to win out and hope the Cardinals lose to the Lions and Rams the next couple of weeks. They’re better off figuring out how to break the laws of physics and travel back in time to stop Brett Favre from throwing that last-second touchdown to former Eagle Greg Lewis in mid-October. Or resolving the Michael Crabtree silliness sooner. Or not pretending Shaun Hill gave the team a legitimate chance this season. Any of these things could be resolved with time travel.
Eagles by ten.

TEXANS AT RAMS
The secret to Houston winning is to have half a Matt Schaub. Last week, with a harness on his non-throwing shoulder, Schaub threw for over 300 yards in the first half, finding Andre Johnson time and time again down the field sitting in soft zones or exploiting tentative coverage in the secondary. With Steve Slaton lost for the year, even more pressure has been put on Schaub to perform. At 6-7, the Texans are unlikely to find themselves playing in mid-January, but they need to finish strong to keep that hype train going in Houston.

Computer error: Designation “quarterback” incompatible with program “St. Louis Rams.”

There’s no hype in St. Louis, except for what high draft pick the Rams are going to get next year. Might I recommend a quarterback, defensive lineman, wide receiver, safety…OK, anyone except running back. Even then, you may want to consider finding a replacement for when Steven Jackson snaps and pulls an Irsay, loading up moving vans in the middle of the night to escape. (Side note: last week, Keith Null started at quarterback for the Rams, which meant that live game updates showed things like “Null: 5/12, 60 yds, 1 INT.” I thought this was a computer error for the longest time until I realized it was actually someone’s last name. This is a pretty decent metaphor for the Rams’ quarterback situation.)
Texans by fourteen.

DOLPHINS AT TITANS
The Fins survived their knockout game last week, taking down the Jags (who seem to be intent on waltzing out of the playoff picture after last night’s breakdown against the Colts). They get the joy of facing the Titans this week in yet another knockout game for the AFC wild card. If the Dolphins win, it’s pretty much a two-team race between them and the Ravens for the final spot (assuming the Broncos can clinch, which is a big assumption at this point). If Tennessee wins, who the hell knows anymore. Guess what? It’s going to be the latter. Chris Johnson has given me no reason to doubt in his abilities. He’s having an mid-2000s LaDainian Tomlinson season right now. Vince Young may not be able to play this week, which will supposedly cut down on Johnson’s ability to break the perimeter since defenses won’t have to worry about protecting the back side of the play. Uh, have you seen CJ run? He makes the Roadrunner look like Fat Bastard.
Titans by six.

FALCONS AT JETS
This is cute. Jets fans are talking themselves into the playoffs yet again. Hey, Mark Sanchez might even play this week! Then again, they are facing an Atlanta team minus its best weapons, with gaping defensive holes up the middle that Thomas Jones can probably exploit, and thoroughly deflated after losing consecutive games at home. Oh, and they’re heading from the comforts of a dome in Atlanta to what will be a breezy, snowy New Jersey. Yeah, I think Jets fans can continue to play pretend for another week.
Jets by eight.

RAIDERS AT BRONCOS
Why does JaMarcus Russell have to re-emerge to sully an otherwise feisty Raiders squad? He’s a stubborn turd that refuses to be flushed. I guess in this scenario, Al Davis represents a broken and splintered plunger. Kyle Orton may find throwing downfield to Brandon Marshall and company will be a little more stifled this week against the Raiders secondary. This game will come down to whether it’s Knowshon or No-Show Moreno that is in the backfield. I like Denver this week, but I’d avoid putting money on it. Mostly because that would require me to watch a game that will most likely bore the hell out of me and anyone within a ten-block radius.
Broncos by seven.

BENGALS AT CHARGERS
Heartfelt condolences to Chris Henry’s family. There’s not much more to say than this is a very sad week for the Bengals. My GUFS colleague David Jacob covers the angles of Henry’s ill-fated end. Carson Palmer has suggested the Bengals dedicate the rest of the season to the memory of both Henry and defensive coordinator Don Zimmer’s wife Vicki, who unexpectedly passed away in October at the age of 50. The emotions will be high for this game, but I don’t know that it translates into a win, especially on a cross-country trip to face the hottest team not named the Saints or Colts. The Redskins lost their first game after Sean Taylor’s death a few years back. I assume a similar tale to unfold, but the Bengals have more on their minds right now than the outcome of the game.
Chargers by six.

BUCCANEERS AT SEAHAWKS
This is the only late game that FOX is choosing to show. I think a re-run of Legend of the Seeker may draw higher ratings than Josh Freeman throwing the inevitable four interceptions and Matt Hasselbeck getting bored and tossing jump balls to T.J. Houshmanzadeh. By the way, I know it’s a little weird to talk about with the death of Henry, but how angry do you think Housh is right now? That Bengals team sorely needs a wide receiver who can go over the middle and complete the offense. Nonetheless, they’re a playoff team, and T.J. “Houshamazilly” is in the Pacific Northwest watching a tandem of Justin Forsett and Julius Jones run into the pile for 1-yard gains every first and second down. Hope that contract is worth your malaise, T.J.!
Seahawks by ten.

VIKINGS AT PANTHERS (8:20 PM, NBC, SNF)

Old Man Winter will have to battle the elements this week in North Carolina.

The Vikes can clinch their second straight NFC North title with a win at Carolina, but it’s not a cinch for that to happen, even with the Matt Moore/Jake Delhomme sampler pack the Panthers will throw out at QB. The Vikings have had six road games so far this year and have won four of them: Cleveland, Detroit, St. Louis, and Green Bay. Of those four, only Green Bay can be considered close to a challenging team. Minny has dropped their two roadies against Pittsburgh and Arizona, both of whom succeeded by forcing Favre out of his comfort zone. I’m not saying the Panthers are a great team or that they’ll be able to pressure Favre consistently, just that it’s not a shoo-in that they’ll come out flat. Adrian Peterson is going through his first extended stretch of sub-par play in his career; on the flipside, Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams have been consistently attacking run defenses all year. This is their biggest challenge yet, facing that Williams Wall the Vikings have built in the middle. I still think Minnesota wins the division this week (by way of a GB loss) but I’m giving the game to Carolina in an upset.
Panthers by four.

GIANTS AT REDSKINS (8:30 PM, ESPN, MNF)
The Giants missed a massive opportunity to breathe life into their 2009 campaign last week in their gunfight against the Eagles. Their third straight NFC East battle has them going against the little sister of the group, the Washington Redskins, who just this week replaced their general manager and engaged in serious conversations about bringing in Mike Shanahan as coach. Yeah, it’s not like Jim Zorn’s balls were already in a vise, right? The Giants are too talented to drop this game, although they did just that in a similar situation in 2007. Coming off a game against the Eagles, the Giants got embarrassed in a week 15 primetime game against Washington, 22-10. Will history repeat itself? Maybe New York fans will want it to–that 2007 team went on to upset the Patriots in the Super Bowl.
Giants by twelve.

Last week (including yesterday’s game): 11-5
Overall: 142-66
Upset Special: 6-8