Sanjuro

French music with the demonstrators leaving Grosvenor Square (US Embassy) in the background for Trafalgar Square.

http://www.myspace.com/musicsanjuro

Sax in the Park

I love this couple who were entertaining us in Grosvenor Square (US Embassy).

(No myspace site as of yet!)

CND’s Bruce Kent

Bruce Kent agrees with my opening sentence on media: sensation-chasing and celebrity-driven.

http://www.cnduk.org/

This is how they break down:

Feed NOT offered

• jobsearch.co.uk
• planetrecruit.com
• canarywharfjobs.com
• absolute-comms.co.uk
• jobsin.co.uk
• securityclearedjobs.com
• theitjobboard.com
• itcontractorjobs.co.uk
• itjobspost.com
• jobboardit.com
• jobforce.com
• itconnections.co.uk
• jobsdomain.co.uk
• deerfoot.co.uk
• itjobvacancies.com
• 100itrecruitment.co.uk
• hwselect.com
• lorienresourcing.co.uk
• alan-morris.com
• brannans-it.com
• itjobs-online.com

Feed offered but INVALID

• technojobs.co.uk [invalid RSS]
• cwjobs.co.uk [element <pubDate> wrong format/element must be an RFC-822 date-time]
• totaljobs.com [element <pubDate> wrong format/element must be an RFC-822 date-time]
• reed.co.uk [element <pubDate> wrong format/element must be an RFC-822 date-time]

Feed offered and VALID

• silicon.com
• executivesontheweb.com
• jobsite.co.uk
• jobserve.com
• cv-library.co.uk
• guardian.co.uk
• exec-appointments.com
• monster.co.uk
• workhound.co.uk
• www.indeed.co.uk

The individual RSS feeds of the XML “graduates” above are all combined into one SUPERFEED that can be followed here: twitter.com/ITJobsLondon.

Note: If you are a recruiter that want to be added to the SUPERFEED, add a comment with your URL.

There is no price other than getting the price right.

• Peter O’Donoghue – Deloitte Partner, TMT Predictions Sponsor
• Paul Lee – Deloitte Director
• Raymond Snoddy – Media Journalist (panel chair)
• Carolyn Fairbairn – ITV
• Matt Brittin – Google

[Second part of the panel debate available at the end]

[A Wordle from the central words in Deloitte's TMT Predictions 2009]

Media Predictions

1. Putting print out of peril may require stopping the presses

The print industry really is facing a monster of a challenge: the concurrent devaluation of their means of production and their networks for distribution, at the behest of the impatient online consumer. Deloitte says:

“Print media companies need to accelerate steps to re-establish profitable business models again in 2009. The potentially parlous state of the global economy is likely to make change especially pressing.”

Single measures, like reducing the staff numbers “may not alone deliver salvation”, says Deloitte. See Paper Cuts for up-to-date US numbers on job losses. Where is the equivalent initiative in the UK?.

Quality of Prediction: Self-fulfilling.

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2. Television rediscovers its self-belief

Deloitte’s estimate that television viewing figures will rise by 30 minutes per viewer in 2009. On the counter-cyclical character of television, the report says:

“Television may offer a refuge from everyday challenges, in a similar way that the movies offered a temporary sanctuary from the Great Depression”

What to expect? Well, product placement on TV if the advertising revenues get bad enough to sway local policy makers. Also, new methods of measuring ROI (Return on Investment) for marketeers.

Quality of Prediction: On the Money.

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3. 3D becomes an obligation, not an option, at the movies

Cyclical history is only pop when we’re down; this view at least allows for us to get back on top. And when there again, the linear view’s reign continues. Thus, here is another one of Deloitte’s hark-backs to the Great Depression:

“In 2009, the cinema is likely to need a ‘must-have’ factor that convinces audiences to continue to visit. The answer to that need might well be 3D”

The argument that the industry can only afford to invest in one of HD or 3D, and that the latter will have a greater impact on the consumer, makes sense. But does anyone really believe that the Cinderella of cinematic technology has come to the end of her sleep? As Deloitte’s report readily admits, the first 3D film is older than the Great Depression itself.

Quality of Prediction: Seeing is Believing.

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4. The growing cost of free online content

Deloitte believes that the success of UGC (User-generated content) companies will become a liability in 2009. ‘Right. Enough users. Now, where’s that profit?’ The Warholian prediction says:

“The rising cost of online content may mean that the public’s opportunity for 15 minutes of online fame may be receding fast.”

YouTube has certainly made its way into our homes. It has become the “friend” that is at all the parties, and often at our centre of attention.

Quality of Prediction: Get your videos up!

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5. The rising stars take on the the megastars

This prediction is very interesting. It assumes that less money in the arts will be enabling for the areas that are neglected in more prosperous times. Quoting from Deloitte’s argument:

“As consumers focus on value, the ‘premium’ paid for the biggest stars, seen in the best locations, may well erode. [...] Those not able or willing to pay premium prices may divert their interest in lesser known talent, from theater currently on the fringes, to upcoming bands.”

In a month that sees almost half of the shows on Broadway close and threats of cuts to Arts Council funding,  this prediction is also somewhat naïve.

Quality of Prediction: Poor.

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6. The dawn of WiFi radio

A Venn diagram with three intersecting sets (geography, time, continuity) is the graphic part of what I think is a NULL argument. Please note the operative word in italics (my):

“[In] 2009, Internet radio, particularly in the form of WiFi-based, portable sets, could take off, in terms of audience and revenues”

Every radio listener knows that what Deloitte calls a ‘typical household radio set’ (you know, the one in the kitchen) really only needs one button: ON/OFF.

Quality of Prediction: On the wrong side of possible/necessary.

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7. Mobile advertising finds its meaning

This one is a little confusing, not least because I don’t think Deloitte believes their own prediction:

“[In] a global advertising environment characterized by double-digit decreases, mobile advertising may be one of the few growth areas in 2009.”

Mocking the last five years’ believers in ‘the next big thing’, Deloitte expects to become converts in 2009. Anyway, by their own account, should the prediction come true, the most sensitive seismic instruments wouldn’t register it.

Quality of Prediction: Insignificant (hopefully).

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8. The markets get anti-social with social networks

Playtime is over according to Deloitte’s prediction on social networks:

“[A] fundamentally harsher financial outlook in 2009 and beyond, combined with an expected contraction in online advertising, is likely to make the managers of social networks and their investors pause for thought. The likely response is that social networks will focus more on monetizing their subscriber bases, than maximizing their size”

With the poor performance of click and purchase rates on social networks (e.g. Facebook) compared with the Web in general, Deloitte may well have a return on this prediction.

Quality of Prediction: Good.

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9. Reinventing mobile television

After so many positive predictions, along comes a lone negative one. Mobile television won’t happen, according to Deloitte:

“In 2009, it is five times more likely that mobile television services will be closed than launched.”

With a sideways glance to the Far East and the lack of success for mobile television there, their conclusion is that television is some way off being perfectly portable in the form of a mobile phone.

Quality of Prediction: Good.

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10. The rise of malvertising and its threat to brands

What a hideous Portmanteau:  ‘Malvertising (“malicious advertising”)’. It is so ugly, there is even no Wikipedia entry for the term. Deloitte’s prediction says:

“During 2009, malvertising may infect hundreds of reputable sites and be seen by millions of users, many of whose computers are likely to end up infected.”

I wish the predicition instead simply said: “In 2009, the threat to your language will be greater than ever. Refuse to say ‘malvertising’!”

Quality of Prediction: Good (but I refuse to Tag ‘malvertising’).

Further Content

• Full text of TMT Predictions 2009 – Media (PDF/HTML)
• Part II (10′21): ITV’s Carolyn Fairbairn speaks (mp3)

• Peter O’Donoghue – Deloitte Partner, TMT Predictions Sponsor
• Paul Lee – Deloitte Director
• Raymond Snoddy – Media Journalist (panel chair)
• Carolyn Fairbairn – ITV
• Matt Brittin – Google

[First part of the panel debate available at the end]

[A Wordle from the central words in Deloitte's TMT Predictions 2009]

Technology Predictions

1. Making every electron count: the rise of the SmartGrid

The SmartGrid was the star of the show this morning. It was the technology with the headline figure that everyone still remembers (and, for Snoddy, perfect dinner conversation candy). The technology promises to remove half of the inefficiency of the electricity grid by a nifty use of computer intelligence. Quoting from the report:

“Broadly speaking, SmartGrid companies add computer intelligence and networking to what is otherwise a ‘dumb’ electrical network.”

In numbers, this means an improvement of efficiency from a legacy of 33% to an impressive 60%.

Quality of Prediction: Average (as this must be obvious for the industry).

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2. Gadgets for free!* (*subject to contract)

Bundling TVs with subscriptions??? Music equipment with music?? High-end computers with technical support etc.? Quoting from the report again:

“Bundling products and services together may prove essential in 2009 to stimulate an otherwise nervous, stalled market.”

Sorry, I don’t get it. I think the consequence of a “nervous, stalled market” will be the opposite. The consumer is growing up: Less money – more sense. Technology has been bundled for too long. The ear to the ground finally hears terms like “open source” and “choice”.

Quality of Prediction: Poor.

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3. Disrupting the PC: the rise of the netbook

Having brought my new Acer Aspire One to the Deloitte. office this morning, this was an edifying prediction.

“The appeal of netbooks has been categorized as making “great second computers for normal people, third computers for techies and first computers for children”"

Beyond my vanity (that of feeling trendy), and using only my ex-colleagues reaction when I pulled out my netbook over a coffee, Deloitte.’s prediction is sound. They loved it; I could see the immediate attraction (read: jealousy) in their eyes.

Quality of Prediction: Good (although the Christmas sales were a strong indicator).

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4. Moore’s Law and risk
Talk about contrived language (!):

“[Portable digital data storage devices can hold more and more data, yet] at the same time, confidential files, such as an individual’s social security number, occupy the same paltry number of bytes as 10 years ago. It is therefore becoming ever easier for massive volumes of sensitive data to be lost or stolen.”

The logic is…ahem…simply not there. Regardless of the, perhaps, clumsy wording, invoking Moore’s Law to describe the increasing risk of loss of sensitive data (or is it the risk of loss of a greater amount of sensitive data) in the work place seems a bit odd. It is epistemological name-dropping: “I know about Moore. I’m a geek like you. You must listen to me.”

Quality of Prediction: Linear.

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5. The common sense of lean and green IT

In the days when a double Google search is said to equal the boiling of a kettle in terms of energy consumption, this Deloitte. prediction will make a difference:

“Energy consumption for IT should be linked to the overall approach to energy for a company. At present IT budgets are not linked to facilities management bills. Therefore, the IT budget is not currently affected by its power consumption”

When you next turn off your computer – it better be tonight! – look for the fan and clean out the fluff so that it doesn’t have to breathe like a pack-a-day smoker any more. And if you are the manager of a data centre, here is a test: what does the acronym PUE stand for? (No hyperlink here, I’m afraid)

Quality of Prediction: Superb.

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6. Downsizing the digital attic

This seems like the dud prediction of the technology section; the one that makes it ten (but let’s hide it in the middle so it is not too obvious).

“The imperative for companies to cut costs is likely to include attempts to control the escalation of storage costs.”

It feels a little like being told as a teenager to tidy your room, or “otherwise”….nothing will happen.

Quality of Prediction: Commonsensical.

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7. Generic becomes the ‘it’ brand

Matt Britten asked this morning: “How many of you have better [software] applications in your office than at home?” Not a single hand went up in the entire conference room. Judging by Matt’s straw poll, this is not a bad prediction by Deloitte.:

“In 2009, companies and consumers may actively seek out unbranded or relatively unknown technology brands on the basis that they are good enough and, more importantly, significantly cheaper.”

This is the Stonewall riots (not quite) in software terms. The time of sheepish looking employees smuggling in life-saving applications into the office is over. Open source is out of the closet!

Quality of Prediction: Very Good.

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8. The digital ambulance chaser gets supercharged

For a technology prediction, this is Deloitte.’s most tenuous one:

“In 2009, there may be hundreds of class action suits – claims of billions of dollars for copyright abuse – for media, software and other forms of content.”

Paul Lee in his overview this morning described ‘technology’ as ’solutions’. With any stretch of the imagination I cannot see how the legal profession finding the digital rights revenue stream increasingly important is a ’solution’. Rather, it is a warning to innovative minds and a consequence of their creativity.

Quality of Prediction: Not applicable.

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9. Social networks in the enterprise: Facebook for the Fortune 500

This is the one technology prediction that I really don’t understand:

“It looks as though 2009 is likely to be the breakout year for social networks in the enterprise. “

Deloitte.’s report says “Enterprise Social Networking (ESN) goes well beyond the consumer experience of social networking” but it doesn’t exactly qualify it. I am only left with questions. Will most companies in 2009 set up a Ning social network per department? Have the duties of citizens been extended to updating their community’s Wikipedia entry? Is there an expectation that every Minister makes himself available on Twitter?

Quality of Prediction: Bandwagon-esque.

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10. Sinners become saints

This is by far the most far-fetched prediction by Deloitte. this year:

“In 2009 it may even be considered virtuous to create dishes comprising GM ingredients, packaged in plastic, in kitchens powered by nuclear fuel.”

This year it is 30 years since James Lovelock (“father” of the Gaia hypothesis) published his book that made us appreciate that Earth exhibits behaviour like a living organism. What is less known is that “Mr Green” has for decades believed nuclear power to be our only ‘real’ option for a sufficient source of energy. And on the acceptance of GM, I am reminded of what Geoff Hoon said about the mothers of Iraqi children killed by cluster bombs in the ongoing war; that they would “one day” thank Britain for their use.

Quality of Prediction: Wildly wishful.

Further Content

• Full text of TMT Predictions 2009 – Technology (PDF/HTML)
• Part I of Panel debate (4′35): Chairman Snoddy speaks (mp3)