Facebook Home has vividly demonstrated that the Android ecosystem has been a double-edged sword, both for the handset manufacturers that are on the Android bandwagon, and to a lesser extent, to the mobile telecom operators.

Why?

Well, both the operators and the handset manufacturers don’t just want to sell handsets or acquire more customers. They want to get their customers to buy and use additional products and services. They want to cultivate a longer-term relationship with their customers. They want to be able to offer customers a unique experiences. All this could be done with features/functions of the smartphone itself or through unique services offered. Facebook Home limits their abilities to make this happen.

Android has benefited Manufacturers thus far…

Android has allowed manufacturers to focus on the hardware and drive it forward aggressively. Android also fostered a huge number of applications compatible with their devices, which have benefited  users. Manufacturers, still needed to spend resources thinking about how to differentiate.

For operators, it allowed them to (reluctantly) remember what they do best – and that’s not to specify phone features and capabilities, but rather to operate a large telecom network and all associated aspects (retail, support, and more). However, operators too need to constantly differentiate in terms of the end-user experience of their services.

Innovation is required

What does every company need to do in order to survive and thrive? It needs to innovate. And, to innovate means to differentiate their products/services from those of the competition. For operators and manufacturers, this means different things. However, being able to have apps and “front ends” integrated into the phone, was one of the key methods both of these categories of players sought to use for differentiation.

For an operator, an example of this might have been some VOD application just for their subscribers or something to integrate another service in their portfolio (e.g. TV). For a manufacturer, this might have meant a slick alternative to the default Android front end. Both of them might have liked to “skin” Android to be unique to them, and some did try to do so to varying degrees of success.

One might think that smartphone manufacturers can differentiate based on hardware features, for example:

• Screen quality (size, resolution, brightness).
• Camera quality (resolution, low-light, etc.).
• Speed (processor+).
• Connectivity (networking, Bluetooth, NFC, and more).
• Capacity (storage, memory).
• Sensors and UX operation (hand waving, gyros, accelerometers, etc.).
• Environmental resistance (water/dust resistance).
• Dimensions (weight, width, screen size).
• Battery life.

While this seems like a long list of features, providing plenty of opportunity to differentiate, it isn’t so. Soon, all manufacturers will be so good, that differentiating on these parameters simply won’t be enough. All devices will be similarly “amazing”. Manufacturers wanted to “own” the device home screen!

Shelly Palmer, in his review of the Samsung Galaxy S-IV put it nicely:

Since everyone who isn’t Apple is using Android, it’s going to be hard for any manufacturer to create a true stand out device. The phone and tablet business feels a lot like the PC business did in the Wintel era – lots of undifferentiated hardware running the same software. But Samsung has the right idea – separate the features of the hardware (which everyone can OEM) and concentrate on the benefits of the software (which can, in some cases, be proprietary).

Then, Facebook Home Came Along

And it is claiming that one piece of vital real estate – the home screen of the phone. If users embrace Facebook Home, it would mean that neither the manufacturers nor the operators would have much ability for differentiation.

And there lies the risk of Android (the double-edged sword). By buying into Android, anybody could have come along, at any time, and snatch this precious real estate. As long as it was very fragmented and only a tiny fraction of users replaced their smartphone’s default experience, the risk was contained. But when someone like Facebook comes along and offers an alternative, it could really eat into their ability to differentiate.

If I were in Samsung, HTC, LG, AT&T, Verizon, Orange, or Vodafone, I’d be wishing Facebook Home would not stick with users… Thankfully, I’m not …

So, what does Google think about this?

Well, this post couldn’t end without thinking about Google’s perspective. I seriously doubt Google are happy about this (as also sensed from their “reactions”). After all, Google wanted this same real estate to get eyeballs to their own services. That was almost the whole point behind Android to begin with… So Google too, will probably be hoping Facebook Home doesn’t succeed.

Would love to hear your thoughts.

Here are a few things users have said (publicly) about Medivizor:

I’ve signed up and I really, really like it thus far. This is fantastic! I had largely given up searching for info on my own and just read material recommended by people on FB or on Twitter.

And

I am impressed by the comprehensive content. I have not seen this kind of framework elsewhere (and I’ve spent a lot of time on sites that address breast cancer).

And, even:

I love Medivizor. Thanks to you for providing it…

That’s what has made January such a busy month. I had planned to share with you insights gained from CES 2013 and the Digital Health Summit, which were awesome, but just didn’t get around to it. Hopefully, I’ll get around to it… But the great stuff going on at Medivizor is just so exciting; I couldn’t help but share. It has been great to see people using our services, giving us feedback, getting value, and talking about it.

People writing about Medivizor

Here are just a few of the things written about us in January:

• Among 5 Hot Startups by MedCity News: Health IT startup delivers personalized content tailored to patient’s disease stage (Feb 1, 2013)
• Blogs:
  • ChemoBrain: Medivizor – A Personal Virtual Concierge / Step aside, Dr. Google:  Enter Medivizor. (Jan 30, 2013)
  • No Boobs About It: Medivizor…Providing Relevant Breast Cancer Information Updates (Jan 28, 2013)
  • Scott’s Diabetes: “An Orange Peanut?! For Me?!” (Jan 25, 2013)
• Haaretz: Startup of the week / Medivizor, your personal medical consultant (Jan 1, 2013)
• Startupress: Medivizor aims to improve the accuracy of medical information (Jan 4, 2013)

Where we’re at

Right now, the service is “live” (in invitation-only beta) for 4 medical conditions: breast cancer, prostate cancer, diabetes, and colorectal cancer. We’re adding lymphoma and melanoma shortly. Even though we’re in invitation-only mode, people can sign up today and let us know what condition they are interested in and wish us to support next.

It’s very important and gratifying for all of us at Medivizor that we’re able to help people. While we cannot make all people happy, we’re trying our damn best to do so. And mostly, we’re succeeding, even if this sometimes means sleeping 3 hours/night…

Thanks!

I want to thank all the passionate bloggers, patient advocates, and journalists that have decided to write about us and recommend to people to join our early access program: AnneMarie Ciccarella, Jean Campbell, Scott K. Johnson, Chuck Maack, Stephanie Baum , Amitai Ziv, and Inbal Orbaz — Thanks!!!

Of course, all this couldn’t be done without The (terrific) Medivizor Team supporting it all!

Finally, I’d also like to thank all our early adopters for trying us out, being patient with us, and providing excellent feedback. There’s no doubt that your feedback will improve the service and help you, and others like you.

This is just the start, folks! Lots more to come. Finally, if you know of anybody that might want to try out the service and provide feedback, let them know about it.

Continuing the annual tradition: Last year, my predictions for 2012 turned out to be remarkably good with 85% accuracy! That’s even better than the 77% accuracy of 2010 and 2011 predictions. If you want to check it out yourself, here’s the scorecard.

I loved the video summary Google did for 2012. I actually didn’t mention many of these developments. So surely you must consider my predictions not “all that will be”, but rather, what will be within specific areas that I’m focused on. Obviously, there’s a lot more going on that I don’t touch on.

So without further ado, my 2013 predictions:

• Apple:
  • iPhone 5S – Again, this summer, June-August. No change in form factor. Most improvements will be “internal” and in software and ecosystem – not in sheer device capabilities. Could be cosmetics, like colors. It could even be perceived as somewhat of a letdown. Not a prediction, just a small comment: The iPhone 5 is an amazing device with its power, size, and weight. However, I really don’t like how it scratches so easily on sides and back. The iPhone 4/4S was much more durable in that respect. Apple may fix these aesthetic aspects while maintaining the same form factor.
  • iPad Mini will get a Retina-rated display, and a stronger processor around April-October 2013.
  • Opening up iOS a bit more – given the Maps fiasco, I think Apple may allow replacing the default application to open for maps, mail, browser on the device. This is somewhat unlikely – so it’s not obvious it would happen. But it wouldn’t be too difficult for Apple to do. Especially now that Steve isn’t here. This may make Chrome and Google Maps even more pervasive on this platform.
  • I think a real Apple TV will come this year. I predicted it for 2012, but 2012 was too busy with the iPad Mini and the lightning port and two iPad versions, so I think it will be this year.
• Microsoft:
  • Windows 8 will be a success. It’s a very nice OS.
  • Surface with Windows RT will also be doing pretty well this year. I really don’t like the touch keyboard, but the physical key keyboard is terrific. A real laptop alternative on the go. Better than an iPad for most serious work.
  • Windows Phone 8 – Also, a big mover this year. I think it will take a chunk out of Apple growth, but it won’t stop iOS nor Android from having another great year. It will be the 3rd OS – giving even more options for users.
  • Overall, I’d say Microsoft innovation is “back”. They are going to do a lot of great stuff.
  • Bing – no change. Will continue to be a distant 2nd place, but may move up a notch. Right now, Google has 80% of worldwide search and Bing has nearly 10%. I don’t think we’ll see Bing get over 13% during 2013. Here’s the trend over the past few years. Quite steady now.
• Google:
  • Search dominance continues.
  • Online video dominance continues.
  • Online ad dominance continues.
  • Browser – Chrome continues to grow, from 24.5% market share to about 30% market share during the year. This eats into FireFox and IE marketshare, mostly.
  • Chromebook – probably doesn’t make it. The push I expected in 2012 didn’t happen and I’m beginning to doubt that it will resurface in 2013. So this year I’m actually predicting Chromebook doesn’t have much news or progress.
  • Google+… – It doesn’t seem like it’s going to grow dramatically in 2013 except organically. It’s not becoming a destination in and of itself. Just a tool to improve other Google products.
  • Google Drive – great traction here. Google remaining a dominant cloud player.
  • Research projects – we’ll continue to see great stuff here. Cannot predict exactly which of them will make a splash/dent.
• Games:
  • Nintendo Wii U will NOT be a huge success. Yes, it will sell. But it’s not a Kinect-beater. Two reasons – price and complexity. The experience is too complex. Immersive, but not nearly as immersive as Kinect.
  • Microsoft Kinect continues to dominate the console market – taking marketshare from Nintendo and Sony. It’s just a better overall experience.
  • Nintendo is also suffering from the smartphones on the portable platform, with continued decline in NDS and N3DS usage.
  • Sony continues to falter on handheld platform – no way to beat smartphones or even Nintendo 3DS with PlayStation Vita that followed PlayStation Portable.
  • Basically iOS and Android rein in the portable gaming field, and  Microsoft move strongly into a lead on the console side.
• Home entertainment:
  • The streaming video business is a very tough battle on content and rights and platform availability with Netflix, Vudu, Hulu, Amazon, Apple, Boxee, and others.
  • The battle continues. Will a winner emerge this year? I doubt it. So that’s my prediction. It’s still a fragmented market.
• Mobile:
  • RIM, manufacturer of Blackberry, continues to fail. Perhaps it’s breakup will be in 2013. I incorrectly thought it would be 2012, but I think RIM will be unable to recover and someone will acquire its assets and user base. Two things RIM could have done, and may still do to save itself: Become a virtual carrier for roaming business users or move to Android (or Windows Phone) platforms as its prime OS. It may not save it completely, but it could slow its decline.
  • I already made predictions about Android, iOS and Windows. No other OSs are likely to be important in 2013 on a global scale.
  • This is particularly true for Jolla, from the folks that formerly created MeeGo at Nokia and as can be seen here. I seriously doubt they could have much of an impact. Even if they have a different strategy with a China-based go-to-market plan.
• Ubiquitous Connectivity:
  • As I predicted earlier, I still believe that by 2019 we’ll have about 10mbps access affordably and globally from wherever we shall be. That’s 6 years away now. To this end, in 2013, I predict Internet connectivity will return to over a quarter of domestic flights and will exist in over a quarter of land-based public transportation (trains/buses/subways). I don’t have an easy way to measure this without a lot of research – but if someone knows how to find the stats, let me know.
• Social Media: No huge change in landscape.
  • Facebook continues to dominate.
  • Twitter continues to grow.
  • Google+ too. But not a destination in and of itself.
  • LinkedIn remains strong.
  • But apps to try to make it all more meaningful does emerge. Pinterest? Possibly an additional service ramps up during the year. There’s still room for improvement and an innovator is lurking to make use of these vast networks on top of their authentication and mechanisms.
• Health:
  • Amount of innovation in Health related topics is accelerating. Social web + smartphones + tablets are going to bring a lot of new innovation. It’s hard to define how to measure this, but I see it all around us.
  • I predict that you’re going to hear great things about a small new startup: Medivizor. Await more great news from that small company…

Even though these predictions aren’t wild, 2013 will be another exciting year. As we all saw, 2012 was pretty amazing.

I’d love to hear your feedback on these predictions. Please comment! If you have key predictions I’ve missed, point them out.

UPDATE: Eli pointed out that I missed the recent sale of Motorola Mobility’s Set Top Box business, and that’s about 20% of Motorola Mobility, so the score is actually 86% prediction accuracy.

What’s TED

(skip for most)

If you are asking yourself “what the heck is this TED Tal keeps talking about?” Realize, you are a minority, let’s fix that promptly: TED began as an annual conference with the most amazing people and speakers, and it has evolved to a global series of conference/events (often called TEDxSomething). Each TED event brings amazing speakers for talks of 3-18 minutes. The 18-minute TED format ensures it is full of inspiring content, forcing the speakers to deliver their best performance. Most of these TED Talks are online and available to all at www.ted.com. In fact, TED Talks were recently viewed over 1 Billion times.

My TED experience

I made it a habit to exercise (on a treadmill, for instance) with a podcast version of TED videos playing from my iPhone. TED’s motto, “ideas worth spreading”, is inspiring in and of itself. I helped organize a weekly screening and discussion of TED and a live video broadcast of a TEDx event for an auditorium of people that couldn’t be physically present at the event.

Ubiquity, quantity, and quality of TED

Now that there are more than 1,000 TED Talks (and thousand more from TEDx events), you’ll never run out of amazing and inspiring talks. They’re available online and you can watch TED Talks in so many different ways: within a the web with a browser, using the TED app on the iPad, iPhone, or Android, as a podcast, on the TV as an app in nearly every TV-app environment, and probably more I haven’t experienced. Also, they are piece-meal size – so you can watch in a short taxi ride, on the train home, while exercising, and many more. There are also many ways to find the talks that might interest or inspire you.

Introducing the TED-talk-a-day diet

The idea is very simple: consider for your 2013 New-Year resolution (around the corner) to make a TED Talk a part of your daily diet. What do you have to lose? Not much more than 18 minutes. But I can assure you; those 18 minutes may inspire your entire day, and even change your life vocation. So head on now to make sure you always have some TED Talks with you (iTunes podcast, for instance, or downloaded within the TED App for iOS or Android). Don’t consume them all at once (you can’t, even if you tried) – just make it a manageable part of your daily routine.

You can get started today

So here are 5 great TED Talks to get you started:

• Elizabeth Gilbert: Your elusive creative genius
• Jill Bolte Taylor’s stroke of insight
• Dan Pink: The puzzle of motivation
• Ken Robinson says schools kill creativity
• Simon Sinek: How great leaders inspire action

There are so many more, you can continue on this diet for a very long time.

One more thought – Inflight Entertainment

I’m writing this post on a flight and realized that aside from my downloaded video podcast TED Talks, there’s no TED-channel on the inflight entertainment system. Hey, United (and other airlines), that’s an idea to consider!

So, what do you think about this new diet? Are you going to adopt it? If you do, share your experience. What are your “must watch” / favorite TED Talks? Let us all learn and be inspired!

A recent study by researchers at Loyola University found that as many as 63% of prostate cancer websites cannot be read or understood by someone who hasn’t completed high school education. Why is this important? Well, one of the study’s references suggests that as many as 90 million adult Americans have literacy skills that test below high school reading levels. This is despite the fact that 87.58% of US adults over 25 years old have a high school education (US Census Data). Also, people with lower socioeconomic backgrounds may have even lower reading levels (as much as 7th-8th grade, on average). In fact, The National Institute of Health (NIH) recommends that providers prepare patient education material suited to fit 4th through 6th grade reading level.

I personally think that the target set by the NIH is unrealistic for complex medical topics. However, when medical information is presented in a way that is more understandable, the better it is for people that suffer from a serious medical condition, such as cancer, or those that care for them.

The Flesch-Kincaid Grade Level

What was most fascinating for me, though, was learning of the Flesch-Kincaid grade level evaluation. This is a tool that automatically assesses the readability of a written text. In order to assess the readability of a given text, one does not need to actually study a diverse group of people reading a text. The Flesch-Kincaid grade level provides a good enough approximation of what the grade level readability of a given text is.

The Flesch-Kincaid grade level is a function of the average number of syllables per word and the average number of words per sentence. It’s formula is quite simple:

Readability statistics for this blog post

It turns out that Microsoft Word has a tool that can assess the Flesh-Kincaid grade level of text in a Word document. Microsoft introduced this feature back in Office 2003, and it exists in all versions since. This feature needs to be turned on, as it is off by default, but once activated, anyone can easily assess the readability of a given text (see how to activate it here). If you prefer, you can use this free online tool. Google Docs had these features and curiously removed them 2 years ago.

The Flesch-Kincaid evaluation method isn’t new. Nor is it the only method. There are many more methods (and here), though it is probably the most popular. Also, readability depends on many other factors besides those mentioned in Flesch-Kincaid. Visual layout and content, of course, are also significant. These readability evaluation methods have been used to evaluate anything from presidential rhetoric to credit card contracts.

Assessing Readability of my Blog

I wanted to see whether complex material could be presented in a readable manner. This brought me to think about testing my blog. I wanted to see how understandable my blog was; at what grade level could you comfortably read and understand my blog? In order to test this, I took the last 6 blog posts and ran the test on them. Here’s what I came up with:

I was pleased to learn that anybody with 10th grade English reading level could read my blog.

Relevance to Medivizor

So, at Medivizor, which I introduced to you last week, among the many things we are trying to do, we aim to make complex medical and scientific material more accessible to people to whom it matters. We decided to test how readable the material we intend for users is. At first, test results showed that our readability levels were suited to grade 15-16. That meant that our users would have to possess a reading level common to people with 4 years of university or college education.

We felt that this wasn’t good enough. If 10th graders could understand my blog, we should be able to make the medical information more understandable. So, using the Flesch-Kincaid scoring level we set ourselves a target to present our valuable summaries of medical material at the readability level of 10th-12th grade. Most general / basic material will be presented even below 10th grade readability levels. For instance, for more introductory material we have achieved 7th grade level of understandability.

How to Make Material More Readable / Understandable?

According to the Flesch-Kincaid formula, it’s VERY simple: Just reduce the number of syllables in words and the number of words in sentences. Use shorter words and shorter sentences. Indeed, our anecdotal tests show that material with lower Flesch-Kincaid grade levels is easier to read and understand than those with higher grade levels.

Conclusions

Medical information can be complex. That said, it is possible to make this information simpler, better understandable, and therefore more accessible. At Medivizor, we chose to use Flesch-Kincaid grade level as a method to set our target and standardize our written matter. We believe this makes information clearer, more consistent, understandable, and usable for our users. This is something you can do too!

As always, I would love to hear your thoughts, comments, and suggestions!

It’s been awhile since my last blog post. I apologize, I’ve been busy. I’ve spent most of my time helping several startups get off the ground, some of which you’ll hear more about very soon. Among these, and the one I’ve spent the bulk of my energy on, is Medivizor. Over the next few weeks and months I’ll be sharing in this blog about the challenges that Medivizor is addressing, the challenges of starting a new company, and some of our experiences.

I’ll begin with a bit of the background. When thinking about what to do next, I had dozens of different ideas and opportunities to consider. In order to help me choose, I had set for myself criteria to evaluate the various opportunities. Two of the most important criteria were:

1. Whatever I do, it should inspire me and I must be passionate about it.
2. It had the potential to bring great benefit to the world (I realize it may sound pretentious, but it’s the truth).

The first, is obviously a mandatory criterion, and should be on every entrepreneur’s list – otherwise, it simply wouldn’t attract the attention and perseverance required to achieve it. I needed to firmly believe in the idea, the people, the value it would bring, the potential, and more. In any venture, there are many obstacles, ups, and downs – one must persevere to overcome them. If you don’t believe in the venture and aren’t passionate about it, those obstacles will soon become major barriers.

The second, however, is not on everybody’s list. I did not want to spend my time and energy on doing something that didn’t bring great benefit to people / the world. There were several ideas I ultimately rejected, even though they may have been lucrative. They could have helped some people or organizations, but ultimately, they wouldn’t leave the world in a better state than before. In fact, some even had a net negative impact. So these were rejected. I actually know of a few companies that are very successful, but the overall impact on the world due to their success is negative. I didn’t want to be involved in such efforts.

This quickly brought me to health – this is one area that has tremendous potential for the application of technology, in general, to software and the social web, in particular. In fact, the sky’s the limit. Everywhere I looked, things could be revolutionized or improved dramatically. We are really just at the tip of the iceberg in the application of technology in the area of health.

About Medivizor

So, a bit about Medivizor, which I’ll say much more about later (and you can read more on the web site, www.medivizor.com): Medivizor’s vision is to improve the lives of  people with serious medical conditions and those who care for them and to effectively apply software and the social web in the field of health for the betterment of humanity. This might sound a lofty goal, and indeed, it is. We want to change the world for the better!

You may wonder, how are we going to do that? Well, we’re beginning by tackling an important aspect of this: Personalized information updates for people suffering from chronic or serious medical conditions, or those who care for them.

Nowadays, if someone becomes seriously sick (with a chronic, life threatening, or quality of life threatening disease), more often than not, someone becomes a web researcher for any and all information about the medical condition – anything that might help. Sometimes it’s the person that’s sick, but often it’s their parents or another close family member or close friend. However, that process is far from effective or efficient. Quickly, they become inundated with too much information. Most of the information they actually get to, is not relevant for their specific condition. The information is written for scientists and medical professionals, and is very difficult to understand for most people – even well educated smart individuals. They find it difficult to know what to trust and what not to trust. How to interpret the information, which may even be conflicting. Much of the really promising and cutting edge research is published behind “pay walls”. Indeed, the most frustrating experience is when they develop a glimmer of hope that the new information in a research paper they read looks promising. So, they take it to their specialist and the doctor tells them it isn’t relevant because of some minute detail they couldn’t understand from the paper or about their condition.

Medivizor aims to solve all that. I’ll tell you more about how, soon. In the meantime, if you know of someone with a serious medical condition that may benefit from Medivizor, invite them to sign up (for free) to be in our early access program which begins next week (by invitation only).

Until we set up a blog at Medivizor.com, I’ll continue to write here.

As always, your thoughts, comments, and feedback are greatly appreciated!

Supposedly private photo on Facebook

If you use Facebook, shop on Amazon, or blog, you’ll definitely benefit from reading this blog. Please share with others whose well-being you care about.

A brief example: A few years ago I ran a survey about privacy on Facebook. Over 90% of the respondents (both genders, across all ages) responded that privacy is important to them. However, their actions contrasted sharply with this concern. By merely responding to my survey, they had agreed to provide me access to all of their private information on Facebook. So much for privacy. There is a tendency to assume that we’re being protected, that some geek somewhere has decided something that will guard our information. This is not a valid assumption. Read on!

“Privacy” on Facebook

We’ve all heard, and presumably know, that what we do online isn’t private unless we take extra efforts to make it private. This is what one might think that Facebook’s so-called “privacy settings” are designed to do. You tell Facebook that you’d like a particular status update, photo or any other item to be maintained “private” or accessible only to “Friends.” You expect that this is what will happen, right?

I’m sorry to be the bearer of bad news but this is not the case. Every photo you load in Facebook is immediately available on a public web server that does not require any sort of authentication or special sign-on in order to see the photo.

To demonstrate this, I loaded this picture to Facebook (using a dummy user account) and specified its privacy to “Friends only.” The image URL (web address) was immediately accessible to anybody whether they are signed on to Facebook as the original uploader, a friend, or are not signed on to Facebook at all. Indeed, anyone can go to this URL: http://a5.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc7/423719_128582700596711_100003349463924_127843_1794341758_n.jpg and view the photo (UPDATE: see update below why the link broke).

You are probably thinking that it would be unlikely that anyone would simply stumble upon this photo since it would be unlikely to appear in any search engine. However, if anyone shares the URL (as I just did), it becomes public. Note that the original owner’s permission is not needed nor would that owner even know about that the picture is circulating. Herein lies Lesson #1: Be aware that there are many people besides those with whom you share a picture that can pass it on to others if they so choose.  Photos on Facebook are not private.

Now you could be saying to yourself that this is okay since Facebook is “designed for sharing” and therefore those who use it should not have an expectation of privacy. Why then, does Facebook have “privacy settings?” Those settings give people the illusion that the information is private – what a delusion! Thinking that what they’re uploading is private, the photo takers among us may share more as a result of believing that what they’re sharing is private. Big mistake. (Case in point, my friend who found out her husband was fooling around with her bridesmaid via a “private” picture on Facebook.)

Still, it is Facebook. So you expect that nothing you post is private irrespective of the privacy policy and privacy settings. How about shopping on Amazon? Wouldn’t you expect that what you buy or consider buying (by browsing and putting items in your wish list) would remain private? Hope springs eternal but…

“Privacy” on Amazon Windowshop

Amazon has a great service called Amazon Windowshop. You can access it at www.windowshop.com or on the Windowshop application on an iPad, though you might want to read ahead before trying this just yet.

With Windowshop, you can browse a virtual endless storefront of Amazon. It’s a gorgeous, very compelling app. I’ve spent hundreds of dollars due to this app alone. Obviously, it works best when it’s connected to your online profile. Through this, you can make instant purchases and be shown items that are closely related to things that you’ve looked at in the past, items you purchased, and stuff on your various lists. Windowshop personalizes the shopping experience. However, most shoppers would probably prefer that their shopping lists, past purchases, and items that they’re interested in remain private. Why? Well, aside from benign items in the “consumer electronics” space, these lists show the types of books, magazines, drugs, dietary supplements, toys and all sorts of things you are interested in, something that most people consider private.

Perhaps surprising to Windowshoppers, there is currently a “small” privacy breach with Amazon Windowshop. When you access Windowshop at the office, for instance, Amazon remembers what IP address you came from (which is shared with the rest of the office). Then, if anybody else in your office accesses windowshop.com, they can see your (supposedly) personalized storefront. Even if they are not logged in as you nor know your Amazon user/password, they can see all of the items you purchased, considered or listed. Basically, your shopping interests are revealed to everyone in your physical vicinity. Do you really want your office colleagues to know all of your likes/dislikes, medicines, personal care items, hobbies and product desires? (Note that this is also true when you access Windowshop through any WiFi hotspot such as coffee shops, a friend’s home, the airport.)

To demonstrate this “small” breach, I include here two screen captures. One is from the iPad that is logged into my account on Amazon. This is a screen capture of the “benign” consumer electronics section of the store. Then, I connected with another computer at the office and took a screen capture of the same section of the store. As you can see, the list of items is almost identical. Trust me, this happens also in much more personal item categories. At this point, anybody in the office can see my personalized shopping experience.

Windowshop Logged in on iPad

Windowshop on nearby computer

What can you do? Well, don’t use Amazon Windowshop unless you’re at home and are fine with those living there viewing your shopping choices. Or, only shop for those items that you wouldn’t mind being associated with you on, say, the front page of your local newspaper.

In both cases described here, it didn’t require a malicious user to get access to information that is considered “private” or set as private. As you might well suspect, malicious users have many more ways to get access to such information. I highlight these basic privacy vulnerabilities to make you realize how privacy on the Internet is much more of an “illusion” than reality.

Lesson #2: Beware. Nothing that you do online can be assumed to be private. Your best assumption is that it can – and might – be viewed.

“Anonymous” Blogging

Yesterday, I was speaking to someone, let’s call her Cathy, who wants to start a blog. Cathy has “explosive information” that she wants to share. However, she wants to do so anonymously because this is the only way that she’ll feel comfortable sharing such weighty information. What Cathy didn’t realized is that being anonymous, just like maintaining privacy, is an illusion. If her blog becomes so sensational and interesting, she would have to become a computer forensic expert to TRY to cover her tracks and keep her identity private. In the long run, it is extremely likely that Cathy will be revealed. My advice to her: Think through all of the ramifications of what you do online because it could be traced back to you. This brings me to Lesson #3: If you want to keep something private, really private, be very careful with it. Once it’s out there on the net, it’s very difficult to prevent it from becoming public.

Unintended Consequences

What happens when people have the “illusion of privacy”? Naturally, they feel more comfortable in sharing information, uploading photos and videos online, etc. Once they feel more comfortable about doing so, they do it more often. This, obviously, is the intention of Facebook, and many other corporations. As Sheryl Sandberg, COO of Facebook recently explained at DLD, a key trend is that people are moving from being receivers of information to broadcasters of information. It seems to me that Facebook is confusing what people do with what people want to do. People broadcast publicly when they don’t intend to do so. People are too often simply confounded by the illusion of privacy.

I’d love to hear what you think and if you are aware of other gaping privacy vulnerabilities that people might need to know about. Don’t forget to share this blog with those you think could benefit from giving more thought to their online meanderings.

UPDATE (Nov 8, 2012): Facebook apparently decided to remove my photo that was marked as private (I can no longer find it on Facebook). So it disappeared and the link broke. So I replaced it with a static image. I don’t think this has fundamentally changed what is said above – since email sharing of any private image on Facebook is still well supported by Facebook – allowing users to share any image (including those set to be “private”) with anybody, with or without a Facebook account.

1. Apple
   • iPhone 5 (yes, this time it will be called “5”) will arrive Aug-Oct 2012, unlikely sooner nor later. It will have a new form factor, with NFC (and a payment ecosystem!) as well as LTE. I’m not sure about anything else, but those would be the highlights of the device.
   • iPad 3 will arrive March-July 2012 and might include a 7” companion (which would match the Kindle Fire and other Android tablets). It may not change form factor at all! So it would add retina, better processor, LTE, etc. – mostly under the hood. It might be called 2S – but that name doesn’t sound snazzy enough for Apple. An accessory to the iPad (such as a native keyboard) could be added, but there’s not much more people are really expecting. Nevertheless, they will have something cool and new. It will not be 3D nor a radically different display technology.
   • TV – They may come out with a new TV experience – including possibly a TV. If Apple does come out with a TV, it will get rave reviews, and few buyers. This is because the the market for TVs is very different than that for handheld or portable/mobile gadgets. TVs are replaced much less frequently and people just went through a huge replacement cycle due to flat panel and HDTV. While it might redefine the experience, Apple’s TV set will not be a huge commercial success nor disrupt the industry – as it has done to many other industries. As an add-on appliance (e.g. Apple TV in its current form), it does have an opportunity to redefine the experience – and if that’s the form factor to build upon, Apple does have a chance at disruption. It’s no surprise that today the Apple TV is difficult to even find on Apple’s web site – it’s buried under “iPod”. It’s not yet a big push for Apple, at least not yet.
2. Mobile:
   • RIM breaks up/dies/collapses. They have lost their way and this might be inevitable.
   • Android continues to thrive. No surprise here. However, nearly all the money in the industry goes to Apple. What I mean is that the ecosystem remains so fragmented, that nearly no company eally makes big money on their investments except Apple. True, the OEMs like HTC, Samsung, and others do have sales – but with dramatically weaker margins.
   • Microsoft/Nokia partnership makes some headway, but not enough to be significant vs. Android/Apple. Developers don’t flock to this platform, still in 2012. They would create Web Apps that would work on it. The overwhelming majority of developers for mobile will target primarily iOS and Android.
3. Tablets
   • Amazon Kindle Fire is a huge hit – already seen. But it will continue into 2012. The price point and value are great.
   • eInk becomes a niche technology and starts lowering sales or stays flat despite historically low price points (eReaders at the end of the year will likely be priced at about $50)!
   • We’ll see more form factors explored, like the cool ASUS Transformer, which I predict will have commercial success due to its unique and functional design.
4. Google
   • They will not YET kill Google Plus in 2012 (like they’ve killed so many things in 2011). Google Plus is struggling to become a “destination” – a place people live, like they live in Facebook. It has millions of registered users and it’s integrated into many of Google’s assets – so it may become more part of the fabric than a destination. But it isn’t really causing a dent in Facebook nor Twitter.
   • Will sell off much of Motorola Mobility – this will prove to anybody not yet convinced that this acquisition was all about the patents Google needs to try to defend the Android ecosystem it has created.
   • Will make a big push with Chromebook tied to good nationwide 3G+ network. This is one cool device – while it did go commercial this year after a beta, the big push will be 2012.
5. Telecom
   • Nothing much will change. This industry is becoming slower by the minute in its abilities. Just more speeds and feeds. Even less control over the devices/services that run over their network. Some seemingly desperate efforts to become the “center” of something.
   • WAC, developed the “telecom way” will not sway developers towards developing for the ecosystem.
   • Biggest pushes will be managed services – for businesses (cloud/data centers) and consumers (home security, etc.). Both of these might see some traction – depending highly on regional market and execution.
6. Social will continue to permeate our lives with many new things happening, such as AirBnB, TaskRabbit and many others. Lots of eCommerce that once didn’t succeed will now become successful because of the “web of people” created by social networks. Trust becomes possible through the user rating system and “real people” behind the transactions. This enables the many visions of the dot com bubble to finally become feasible.
7. Cloud will become the dominant deployment architecture for new services in 2012. It will no longer be considered “an alternative” but rather the “default”, even for enterprise app deployments, towards the end of the year. The enterprises will go with private or hybrid (public/private) clouds this year.
8. Payments: 2012 will be the year of mobile money – with lots more push in this domain – even in developed countries. We’ll see Google Wallet really begin to expand, as well as competing solutions. Lots of activity here. A clear winner may not yet be clear at the end of the year, though.
9. TV battleground:
   • No significant change in landscape, except one important previous prediction will be realized – most cable and satellite providers will have or will have announced plans to stream OTT (over-the-top) content to the TV, including web, YouTube, etc.
   • 3DTV continues to move very slowly (as I’ve predicted earlier). Interactive TV continues to slowly percolate the market.
10. Gaming will have no fundamental change in landscape, though it’s expected that at least Nintendo will come up with their new device to succeed the Wii.
11. Enterprise environment: The biggest investments will be in: Big data, business intelligence, and “smart features” – things that used to be called “artificial intelligence” – being put to use on enterprise data and transactional systems.
12. Healthcare: I believe social and big data will have a huge impact on medical research and healthcare as we know it. Already we’re seeing the signs of this happening – but 2012 will have more in the revolution of Health 2.0.
13. Crowdfunding: Big year with lots of success to the crowd-funded model. Kickstarter is just one of tens of companies trying to do something in this space. I believe the legislation in the US will finally pass to allow greater use of crowdfunding. Currently there are competing US legislation proposals for equity-based crowdfunding, so it might take a while, but once this hurdle is crossed – and even before then, crowdfunding is bound to pick up even more steam in 2012 and be a funding vehicle for many more startup ventures.
14. ASUSTeK truly becomes a consumer brand to be reckoned with. Clayton Christensen, author of The Innovator’s Dilemma and the de-facto creator of the term “Disruptive Innovation” explains in this Keynote at a Gartner event recently, how ASUS grew over the years. In 2011 we are finally seeing the “in-your-face” innovations from ASUSTeK in the form of the Zenbook – an ultrabook to compete with the MacBook Air and the Transformer. Both are terrific and I believe will lead the company to more commercial success this year.

I’d love to hear your feedback on these predictions. Please comment! If you have key predictions I’ve missed, point them out.

Based on my predictions, it’s not clear that 2012 will be very exciting. Perhaps, I’m missing a Black Swan or two… can you speculate on what might be a Black Swan for 2012?

Since everyone is making iPhone 5 predictions, I will too. Let me acknowledge up front that I do not have any inside information, knowledge of leaked designs, or special access to the powers that be. I am just trying to figure out what Apple plans to do by extrapolating from Apple’s past activities. By considering how the company evolves its products responds to the capabilities and features of competing products, including things that it tends to hold back on for a variety of reasons, I can make some reasonable predictions.

So here I go

The likely attributes

• Physical dimensions:
  • On one hand, I tend to think that the external size will not change from the iPhone 4. This makes sense because it allows many of the existing accessories to fit the iPhone 5. On the other hand, it must have a distinctively different “look” so that people can easily spot the owners of the new iPhone 5 and separate them from the now-dated owners of the “old” iPhone 4. This will undoubtedly prompt even the iPhone 4 owners to inconveniently consider an upgrade.
• Cameras:
  • I’m betting the new iPhone will have a back-facing Backside illuminated (BSI) sensor 8MP camera, perhaps with a better flash. Video shooting capability may be boosted to 1080p (even though the Apple TV doesn’t yet support it).
  • There is some chance the front facing camera might be upgraded to HD or XGA resolution because VGA resolution is barely adequate for high quality video conferencing.
• Screen:
  • Based on the rumor mill, I see three options. However, given that I believe the size and shape and shape (form factor) will essentially remains the same (fitting in most earlier accessories), the screen can either
    • Extend to the entire front face (excluding the speaker and camera areas).
    • Be stretched to cover almost the entire front face (excluding the speaker and camera areas).
    • Be almost the same as iPhone 4, if not the same.
  • Resolution – I’d expect retina pixel density, no less and no more.
  • Technology – While it is possible that we’ll see something new here, it’s really not necessary since the iPhone screen is already amazingly good.
• Behind the scenes:
  • Processor –I think the A5 will be enough. It will be advertised as at least doubling the speed.
  • Battery – It makes sense that this last at least same length of time and maybe 20-30% longer.
• Connectivity:
  • Near-field Communication (NFC) – The ability to be used as a credit card will almost surely be part of the iPhone – to feature-match Android.
  • The Ability to serve as a WiFi hotspot will be built in and available, although perhaps dependent upon a carrier option.
  • There’s around a 50% chance that there will be some LTE capabilities in the modem. The reasons I’m still somewhat doubtful are that this technology is barely mature enough for Apple to adopt and global support might require too many variations based on frequencies. But there’s still a chance.
  • Question: Will the iPhone 5 be the first popular phone in the world to blend CDMA and GSM technologies and run both on Verizon and AT&T networks in the US? This is a possibility. The appeal to Apple is that this  would reduce the variability of the product line although it would increase the cost. For most consumers, this wouldn’t matter, but for some it would. Also, this cost will unlikely be noticed in the end user price.
• Software:
  • Obviously, the iPhone 5 will ship with iOS 5which will be consistent with the features and capabilities already advertised. I expect no big surprises here. The most important aspect of this, of course, is iCloud, which will allow software updates and content syncing over the air. Another important capability is iMessage and Twitter integration.
• Other changes:
  • Will Apple remove the home button and the mute button?
  • Some rumors (here and there) and inspections of Apple code reveal these changes are possible. I hope neither happens because both are useful, in particular the Home button – it makes the device more accessible to people.
• Prices, availability, and other stuff:
  • An unlocked version sold directly from Apple will be available at launch with a higher price tag. This willclearly highlight the price of the subsidy. Note that Apple began with this, recoiled from it, and then quietly rolled out an unlocked version of the iPhone 4 earlier this year. This time around, I think the unlocked version will be made available right from the start.
  • The new iPhone 5 will cost $200 (subsidized) for the basic model and $600-$650 at retail unlocked – same as the iPhone 4, today.
  • The old iPhone will drop by $100-$150 and will continue to be available at Apple stores unlocked for a period of time.

What’s out:

• 3D – despite rumors, I believe there will be no 3D display or cameras. I think Apple realize this is more of a fad than a real end user positive experience at this stage.
• Privacy screen – despite rumors suggesting the display will be such that only one person can watch it at a specific angle – Apple want people to share their screen.
• Different form factor – Apple does change this, and the iPhone has had 4 models, and only one of them did not change the form factor (3GS). However, even though this has been the longest gap in availability of a new iPhone, I believe the form factor may not change materially. Rumors contradict this (here and here).
• Quad core processor or two processors. Some rumors suggested these, but I think the iPad will remain the processor testing ground for iOS and no new processor will be introduced – hence the A5 will be the processor.

What else will be announced:

• A cheaper iPhone. I suggested to Apple that they do this a while back – the sooner they allow more consumers to use their devices more affordably, , the better for them. Android is already the dominant seller. The predictions were for a $350 unsubsidized and unlocked iPhone 3GS. I believe that if it is the iPhone 3GS, it will be sold for $300 or less, perhaps even $250. This will compete with the iPod Touch – and therefore, the iPod Touch’s price will subsequently be adjusted to below $200.
• An alternative would be an iPhone 4S – a cheaper version of the current iPhone, in which case, $350 is more likely.
• The iPhone that will be announced MIGHT be called iPhone 4S rather than iPhone 5 – especially if it doesn’t change the physical dimensions. But the gap in availability leads me to think that it’s more likely to be called iPhone 5.

Bottom Line

You might wonder why this is important? Well, it isn’t terribly important for most people. Most will just get a phone if they like it. It will almost certainly be better than the iPhone 4 (which is already very good) and unless you have an iPhone 4, you will most likely want one – unless you are dead set against Apple. However, it is important for Apple’s competitors to try to correctly predict Apple’s maneuvers and to try to compete more effectively. Even for competitors, the most effective strategy is to innovate independently and to understand and anticipate consumer wants and needs. Yet, it’s good to know where the competition is going and consider this as part of the strategy and tactics.

I’m sure we’ll discover soon enough how accurate my predictions are.

Which of my predictions do you agree with or think I’ve missed or gotten wrong?

Why did Cisco buy Pure Digital?

Acquiring Pure Digital was likely part of Cisco’s attempt to become instrumental in shaping the future of video and enter the consumer electronics market. Cisco had tried for years to diversify into products that would be used directly by consumers. It acquired both Linksys (that makes consumer and small business networking products), and Scientific Atlanta (a leading manufacturer of set top boxes), as part of this pursuit.

However, by trying to diversify in this manner, Cisco tried to do what few, if any, have ever succeeded in doing – which was moving from a complex-system business model to a volume-operations model – and simultaneously moving from a business-to-business sales to a direct-to-consumer sales. Either of these is difficult.

Cisco has been very successful in selling networking equipment to large enterprises and service providers – and that’s what it does best. In case of the Linksys, analyst Zeus Kerravala of Yankee Group said he found it a “little bit odd”. While successful strategies are sometimes “ahead of their time”, in hindsight, it would appear that Zeus actually got it right.

A bit about the Flip

The Flip revolutionized video recording. It created and dominated a category onto its own of no-frills compact camcorders, portable, and always with us with good enough quality that were dead simple to use. At prices that began at $100, one could have a camcorder in their pocket at any time ready to shoot. This was very disruptive to the manufacturers of camcorders at the time. It became the #1 selling camcorder in on Amazon in the US before it was even covered by any serious camcorder review! One could hand out Flip’s to kids in school projects. A great example of how they were used can be seen in this TED talk by Chris Anderson where he talks about how the web powers global innovation, particularly via video (see all or from 16:24). Flip contributed to vast amount of user-generated-content on YouTube and other video sharing web sites.

Flip’s market challenge

However, since its acquisition by Cisco, Flip faced increasing competition from:

• Me-too competitors: Flip’s success drew attention of many that created very similar devices by Kodak, Panasonic, Samsung, Sony, and others. It became exceedingly difficult to distinguish Flip from the rest of the pack.
• Smartphones: The ability to easily record video had come to all smartphones. The iPhone 4 and most new smartphones have HD video recording capabilities that are as good as many Flip models. The smartphone is always with us, so there was arguably no more need for a separate device for video recording alone.

It wasn’t clear how Flip would distinguish itself and retain its market leadership. In order to overcome these challenges, an independent strong leadership with a very strong consumer focus and dedicated team would be required. However, Cisco would not provide this environment.

So why did Cisco fail with Flip?

Peter Jon Shuler has alluded to part of the answer on KQED. Peter explained that “…the Flip was undone by still cameras and video cameras becoming standard equipment on smartphones…” and that Cisco’s big mistake was that “…the Flip didn’t change much from its original design…” However, this isn’t very different from how many large corporations fail to leverage companies they acquire. Ironically, until recently, many considered Cisco as one of the best companies in terms of success in acquisition. So why did it fumble so dearly this time?

The answer, I believe, is synergy, or, more precisely, lack thereof.

This is not merely a case where a large company acquired a smaller company and didn’t invest sufficiently in their product or in their integration with the company. I believe, that from the outset, the lack of synergy was so profound that it must have been extremely difficult to reconcile the differences. Without a sustained and dedicated focus on the consumer space, Flip’s leadership could not evolve their products rapidly enough. Merely dealing with the post-merger integration would distract them enough to render them incapable of coping with the onslaught of competition to the niche that they had created.

Epilog

There is one thing to lament about this failure – and this is a key question – did Cisco try to first spin off the acquired asset and the Flip unit? There are several natural consumer electronic companies that might have had an interest in acquiring Flip from Cisco, as Flip was still a strong consumer brand. Cisco could have lost much less than it ultimately had. Not to mention the loss to the users of a viable product/technology biting the dust. As it went down, closure of the Flip was nearly a complete write-off. Cisco’s bottom line would have been much better had they not been hasty.

While I don’t have inside information from Cisco, I dare suspect that Cisco had not carefully explored this opportunity before taking this drastic measure to improve their short-term results.

Therefore, it is possible Cisco fumbled as many as three times with Flip:

1. By acquiring Pure Digital in the first place.
2. By not allowing them to focus on effectively competing in the market they had pioneered.
3. By shutting them down without fully exploring the possibility to sell them off or spin them off.

Wider implications

Getting back to last week’s announcement of even deeper cuts and layoffs at Cisco: If I were a shareholder in Cisco, I would like to know whether an earnest effort was made by Cisco to spin off or sell the units and products it is now shutting down.

So enough with my thoughts, what do you think?

• How do you use the Flip?
• Would it still be able to compete in the environment that exists now?
• Was it market forces that killed Flip or Cisco’s lack of synergy?
• Did Cisco seriously consider selling or spinning off Flip or these other assets they are now shedding?