Goat Riders Of The Apocalypse

Why do we even bother - The 2011 Cubs at the halfway point

2011-06-28T23:34:30Z

They've played 79 games....eeeeh, close enough.

In situations such as the one your 2011 Chicago Cubs find themselves in, the biggest commodity that needs to be doled out is "blame", although there are some reasons for "praise" as well.

When discharging your own personal Protected By Our Constitution Assault Weapon of Blame, you may choose to point yours in a different direction than I have. That just means you're wrong. Ahh, I kid.

After the jump: Who should we be taking potshots at, and who should be spared?
Fielding: anyone not named Fukudome, Johnson or Pena, please bend over and take your flogging like a man. This is a horrifically poor fielding team; although most mental decisions have been acceptable, physical limitations and absence of skill has doomed us nearly every game. Even Fukudome, who came to us with supposedly top-of-the-charts defensive skills, has shown his age, and he doesn't get to balls as he once did. Remember early in the year, when he pulled a hammy running in on a dying liner? But he still has sound fundamentals, which is more than everyone else except Pena can claim.

If fielding is 10-15% of the game, well, based on 79 games played, that's 8-12 losses, right there.

Running: we don't run. Even against the White Sox, with the failed abortion wearing their catcher's gear, we didn't run all three games. Those of you who have been on Baldy McGrindy's case for not making aggressive calls, please let me refer you to this weekend's series against KC, when we tried to be a bit frisky, and what? I think the Royals set a series record for outfield assists? No? Oh, my bad.

Hitting: we on this site have been very meek and timid about forecasting great things for our offense. If you would have told me in March that winter was gonna last until Memorial Day at Wrigley, yet after 79 games, our offense would plate 327 runs, which is a sliver over 4 runs a game, I would have shrugged and said that it was about what I expected. Weak, but not historically so. This extrapolates into 683 runs; even more if the June trend continues.

Starlin Castro can hit big league pitching. And look, he's the benchmark when/if the powers that be decide to bring up 'prospects'. We talk a lot about giving prospects a fair chance; such as, for example, everyone's little darling, Tony Campana. Castro hit, practically from day one. The league adjusted to him; he adjusted back. League adjusted again; he responded. THAT'S how a real prospect works. Guys like Campana hit for a few days; then they plummet back to Earth. That's not an indicator of real talent. Tyler Colvin is another example of a so-called prospect who, his 21 homers last year aside, has not truly shown the ability to be impactful. The league adjusted to him; he rolled over and died. Fair trial. Trade his silly ass.

Alfonso Soriano has hit 14 home runs. Is he worth the money? Hell naw. But in my mind he has met my expectation for the first half of 2011.

Same story for Aramis Ramirez. 8 homers, 40 RBI, .290 average. He worth his money? Noooo. But to me, he is meeting his expectation, as well.

Fukudome hit hard in April and May, and is swooning in June. Just as he has always done. Jeff Baker hits lefties; Reed Johnson hits lefties; Blake DeWitt has little power and hits .265, all of which are pretty much what I figured going into this year.

The two outliers on my chart are Carlos Pena and Geo Soto. (More on them in a minute). After a miserable start, Pena now has 17 homers, and 42 RBI. He is hitting over .200, and as a result has a decent OBP. This is pretty much what the league expected out of him; I expected something less, so he has been a pleasant surprise lately.

Soto, on the other hand, is only hitting 6 percentage points higher than Koyie Hill. Ugh lee. I mean, hey, he hasn't been busted for Mari in his system this year, and he is nowhere near as fat as he was in 2009, when I wanted to beat him with a bludgeon. But it is clear that he is a man who, unless he maximizes his focus and his commitment to his craft, is a much lesser player than he can be. Some guys can coast, but he simply cannot.

All that and, I guess, the Cubs' offense has been pretty much as we figured it would be, and when Barney and Byrd come back to the team this week, it should be good enough to win as many games as they lose, which would be okay given our expectations for this year.

Pitching: Honestly, we all thought this would be, at least early, the strength of the team. And the back of the pen has been decent; not great, but good enough to win as many games as not. I even figured it would be what kept us afloat for the first two months.

Last in baseball in walks, ERA, and WHIP. Our best starter has a 4.07 ERA. Last in quality starts; thus, we have the most abused bullpen.

First of all, remember the rant about prospects? That applies to Casey Coleman. Casey, thanks for playing. You too, Scott Maine and Jeff Stevens.

Doug Davis and Rodrigo Lopez? Hey, I accept the fact they were brought to us in a last-ditch effort to remain relevant. I can't think of any other pitchers who have joined their club in May or June of this year off the scrap heap and have helped. Once again, thanks guys, for the memories. There is no reason anymore to keep either of these two mopes.

Randy Wells? Your attitude and preparation sucks. Your bus to Iowa leaves tonight, if it were up to me. Don't look so smug, Samardzija. I've seen all I care to see of you, too. Can't start, can't relieve, can you play third base? Didn't think so.

Zambrano and Dempster have not provided the leadership or production their status as members of the 8-Digit Club demands. It really is quite gloomy when everything is added together: poor fielding, middling hitting, and awful pitching.

Changes have to be made, and as always, the 8-Digit Club always rises to the front when changes are discussed.

The 8-Digit Club: these are the guys making greater than a $10,000,000 annual salary. That's 8 digits.

It's quite the gathering on the North Side: Zambrano, Dempster, Soriano, Fukudome, Ramirez, Pena. Am I forgetting anyone? Well, the Bradley/Silva the Hutt fiasco, of which Ricketts is still paying on. But that's out of our control.

It is no surprise that the name being mentioned most often lately is Pena as the man who Can be Traded for Much-Needed Young Blood. He is having the best year out of the six, and he was brought in here to be a one-year band-aid until the Great Prince Fielder and the Even Greater Albert PooHoles became available to stretch the blue pinstripes in their own special ways.

It is utterly ridiculous to even consider signing either one of these guys at this point in time. Both will require salaries upwards of $25 million annually for a long, long time. One is huge, the other is old. If we were one or two players away from contention, then modern conventions say 'go for it'.

But we aren't, and besides, can we even count on this particular front office to complete a decent trade? At this point in time, considering the notion that we do not have a major corner infield prospect, I advocate keeping Pena around for another year or two. Shit, if he'd have us...

If I'm trading someone, I believe that Wellington Castillo could do 90% of the job Geo Soto is doing right now. If a good value trade could be made for Soto, I'd say make THAT one.

Link: Watching the Cubs is torturous.

2011-06-28T17:37:23Z

Over at Fangraphs, Carson Cistulli has developed a system that rates how fun a particular player or team is to watch. Guess which team is nearly rock bottom? Surprising, no?

The Cubs COULD be unterrible in 2012.

2011-06-26T20:41:10Z

Last week, guest author Bradley Woodrum suggested the Cubs should trade anyone over the age of 27, including Geovany Soto and Matt Garza, punt the 2012 season, and attempt to build a dynasty for 2014 or so, and beyond.

The commenters have done a great job handling one of Brad's crazier suggestions -- that is, sending Starlin Castro back down to Iowa for the sole purpose of delaying his entry into the salary arbitration process. But since his post has gone up, I've been back and forth over whether this team should be completely blown up or not.

So rather than make a decision, I'm going to take my best shot at filling out rosters for the Cubs' most competitive teams possible for 2012 and 2013, based on both available free agents and the expected development of our minor leaguers. You tell me how much better the team could be, and then we'll decide if Soto, Marshall and Garza should be traded or not.

My 2012 roster, after the jump.

Off the top of my head, only nine of the Cubs' current 25 players are guaranteed spots on next year's team: Soto at C, Castro at SS, Soriano in left, Marmol and Marshall in the bullpen, and Garza, Dempster, Zambrano, and Wells in the rotation. Obviously there have been a ton of trade rumors about Demp or Z possibly being moved, but I think their 2012 salaries, along with Soriano's, will prevent any of those three players from being dealt.

Another guy that I think should be brought back is Kosuke Fukudome. Fuk's gotten a bad rap in the past three years as a late-season flamer outer, but check out his pre- and post-All Star OPS numbers over the course of his career: .784 OPS in the first half, .773 in the second half. He's also an on-base machine, with the best eye on the team by far. He's not worth the 4/48 he got when the Cubs first signed him, but I'm sure he'd like to stay in Chicago, and it helps that he already knows how to play right in Wrigley. If he were willing to take a two-year deal for $10MM-$15MM, I'd re-sign him.

On the other hand, Marlon Byrd has to be traded, basically as soon as he regains his health and shows he can still play. One of the Cubs' few nearly-ready minor leaguers is a center fielder, and while Brett Jackson should not be rushed into the majors, that does mean the Cubs should trade Byrd away for whatever they can get. It might be a reach to suggest Jackson will be ready to start in center on Opening Day 2012 (.265 AVG in AA this year -- with a .386 OBP, however), but it sure seems like he'll be ready at some point early on in the season.

Do DJ LeMahieu and Blake DeWitt suck? Possibly. But they also might be good. LeMahieu isn't ready to hit major league pitching today, but he also hasn't been completely overwhelmed, managing a .273 average in his short stint with the club. He also had a .492 slugging in AA before his call-up, along with a .358 average. He's also just 22 years old, so there's definitely room for him to grow, which he will do later this season once he's sent back down to Iowa. DeWitt is not Aramis Ramirez, but he's also just 25, and it looks like he'll have a chance to prove himself down the stretch. Slot those guys in for 2B and 3B for now.

That leaves first base. Despite his poor defense, give me the 28 year old vegetarian, Mr. Prince Fielder, over the rapidly aging Albert Pujols. Does anyone know how much money he wants? Maybe $25 mil for eight years? It sure seems like he'll be a pretty good hitter for a pretty good while. And if all he has to do is stand there at first...

So here's your 2012 lineup:

9 - Fukudome

5 - DeWitt

6 - Castro

3 - Fielder

2 - Soto

7 - Soriano

4 - LeMahieu

8 - Jackson

Rotation: Matt Garza, Ryan Dempster, Carlos Zambrano, Randy Wells

Bullpen: Carlos Marmol, Sean Marshall

The two most obvious places that team could be upgraded would be at 2B and 3B, but it's up to you whether you prefer Kelly Johnson or Wilson Betemit to what we have now.

In 2013, the best-available free agent hitters will be outfielders: Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Angel Pagan (remember him?!), BJ Upton, Shane Victorino, Michael Bourn, and Carlos Quentin. Still not a lot of help for the infield, though (Freddy Sanchez? Macier Izturis?).

That said, there's a ton of free agent pitching hitting the market that offseason, including: Scott Baker (club option for $10mil), Matt Cain, John Danks, Zack Greinke, Cole Hamels, Shaun Marcum, Anibal Sanchez, Jonathan Sanchez, and Jered Weaver. So take the $33 million you were paying Demp and Z, and pick your two favorites from that bunch.

So what do you think? Deal Soto, Marshall, and Garza? Or see what happens with our farm over the next 18 months?

Starlin Castro To Triple-A, Please

2011-06-23T19:52:50Z

The following is a guest post written by Bradley Woodrum of Cubs Stats. While I might disagree with Bradley on this point (I'll be writing my rebuttal later in the week), I think he's a great writer, and the interwebs seems to agree with me, as his work has appeared on Fangraphs, among other sites. He's bio'd himself up at the end of this post, so give him a few clicks. But for now: take it away, Brad.

It is time to send Starlin Castro to Iowa.

The Cubs will not make the playoffs in 2011. According to Cool Standings, the Cubs have a 0.5% chance of winning the playoffs - and that hope comes largely on the merit of yet another year of the NL Central enjoying the Weakest NL Division title.

So the Cubs need to make changes. Today, Jim Hendry met with his minions to talk about, well, probably the last few months of their employment. They likely were discussing what we fans have been musing about lately: What moves will make this a better Cubs team in 2012?

In his article about potential trade targets, Tim Dierkes of MLBTR lists 10 possible Cubs targets: Alfonso Soriano, Kosuke Fukudome, Jeff Baker, Carlos Pena, Reed Johnson, Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster, Doug Davis, John Grabow, and Kerry Wood.

Trade 'em. Trade 'em all.

The simple truth is that this Cubs team is not one year away from contention. Sure, we could sign Albert Pujols and maybe old age our way into the playoffs in 2012, but long term success for this club is going to come in a much different form. The Cubs need to do what the Tampa Bay Rays did from 2005 through 2007: Boot the season.

In addition to trading those 10 veterans, the Cubs need to strongly consider trading Geovany Soto and even Matt Garza. Soto, 28, and Garza, 27, are in their primes right now. In two or three years, they will both have premium contracts and likely downhill performances. This is a bummer, but trading these two now could net the Cubs the players necessary for a 5- to 7-year dynasty later (and then those players turn into younger players too).

But, even more critically, the Cubs need to strongly consider sending Starlin Castro to Triple-A. Yeah, he may be just about the only fun thing to watch right on Waveland Avenue, but he's adding wins to an 80-win team (at best). In the meantime, he inches ever closer to arbitration. Sure, the Cubs can afford to pay Castro, but the Cubs budget is not unlimited, so keeping him at the majors right now is wasteful.

Consider: Defensively, Castro's been a mess. Since that first game when he cracked a 3-run homer in Cincinnati, Castro has cost the team 8 runs defensively (combined, that's about six and a half runs per season, according to UZR. Granted, he adds it back with his bat and his base running, but this is the future of the franchise.

He can fine tune his defense (or, maybe even better, swap positions with Darwin Barney) in Iowa while the Cubs trot out some also-ran players at the MLB level and get some great draft picks.

Consider the contract of Hanley Ramirez: He reached the majors at age 22, earned near the league minimum for 3 years, then started earning upwards of $5 million annually. He's now earning $11 million in his age-27 year - well beneath the market rate for a shortstop of his talent - and will earn, at most, $16 million when he's 30 in 2014.

At free agent rates, Hanley Ramirez would be worth $30+ million - look familiar? Yeah, that's what Albert Pujols wants.

Here's the deal: The Cubs are not poor. But, their funds are limited. Say we pay Castro something similar to this:

2010: $0.4 (age 20)
2011: $0.4 (age 21)
2012: $0.4 (age 22)
2013: $6.0 (age 23) -- sign him to a team-friendly, 4-yr extension, avoid arb. years
2014: $7.5 (age 24)
2015: $10.0 (age 25)
2016: $15.0 (age 26)

In this world, where the Cubs sign Castro to an extension similar to Hanley Ramirez' earnings, the Cubs are paying 1/10th of the payroll to Castro before his peak. And, by 2013 - when the club has a legitimate chance at being competitive again - Castro's already out of his league minimum years. And then, by age 27 - at the peak of his talent - Castro will be earning upwards of $25M (possibly a quarter of the Cubs payroll). In the baseball world, $5.6 million may not sound like much, but consider how expensive it was to fill our first base need this year ($10M) or how expensive it can be to keep a young pitcher around (*cough* Andrew Cashner *cough*).

Yeah, we can keep Castro in the majors and let him do the learning-on-the-job thing, but this would be just yet another inefficient use of talent in a franchise writing the book on the matter.

Bradley Woodrum is a writer for Cubs Stats, FanGraphs, DRaysBay, and Homebody and Woman.

Cubs vs. Sox: Albatross Contracts

2011-06-22T12:06:55Z

The first step we'll take in determining which franchise is in the better long-term position is by looking at albatross contracts. Who owes whom the most money over the longest period of time?

The highest-paid player on either side should be obvious to readers of this or any other Cubs blog: it's Alfonso Soriano, who's owed another $57 million between 2012 and 2014. For all the crap Sori gets about his contract, it's important to note he's still an above-average player, and actually probably will be for the duration of his contract. But there's a massive difference between "above-average" and "worth $57 million," and there's no doubt the team is overpaying him.

Elsewhere on the roster, the Cubs have already committed to paying $72.6 million to a handful of players in 2012, including Soriano. Like Alf, Carlos Zambrano is owed $19 million, while Ryan Dempster will be paid $14 million. Recently-extended Carlos Marmol is owed $7 million, Marlon Byrd gets $6.5 million, and Sean Marshall will make $3.1 million, while Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Silva (!) will each likely be paid $2 million to buy out option years.

The only Cub player not named Alfonso that has been guaranteed money after 2012 is Carlos Marmol, who will be owed another $9.8 million in 2013.

On the other side, there is the fact that the White Sox don't owe any one player $19 million annually until 2014. That said, the South Siders have much less financial flexibility respectively, with nearly $95 million committed to player salaries in 2012.

The team's three highest-paid players -- Jake Peavy ($17M), Adam Dunn ($14M), and Alex Rios ($12.5M) -- are hardly guaranteed to be worth the money. According to Fangraphs, that trio has combined to be worth roughly zero wins above replacement so far this season. Surely all three are talented and could yet bounce back, but Jerry Reinsdorf can't be too happy about owing Peavy, Dunn and Rios a combined $104.5 million between 2012 and 2015.

On top of that, the White Sox will pay Paul Konerko another $25.5 million over the two years after this season, plus Alexei Ramirez is guaranteed $32 million over the four years following the 2011 season. Both players are very good and could be worth the money, but the deals are worth mentioning in a conversation about long-term financial capabilities.

The Cubs have the highest-paid individual player of the two teams on their roster, but the NL team has much more flexibility after the 2012 season, with just $28 million in committed salary on the books for 2013, and $19 million in 2014. This apparent advantage could evaporate quickly if the Cubs acquire, say, a veteran first baseman in free agency, and agree to pay him gobs of money over an extended timeframe. But for now, I think the Cubs have the advantage here.

Better Long-Term Financial Flexibility: Cubs

Cubs vs. Sox: Which franchise is better positioned for the long-term?

2011-06-21T21:07:23Z

Feel free to chime in with votes and comments now, and over the next 24 hours I'll put together my own take.

We listen to Cubs related banter on the radio, so you don't have to

2011-06-18T18:38:45Z

Over the past few days, I have had the opportunity to listen to tons of Chicago sports radio, nearly all of which are concerned with the upcoming Cubs/Sox series. Of that, most of it has devolved into comparisons between the good-pitch/no-hit Sox being torn apart by the constant bickering between their manager and Gm, and the "cursed" Cubs whose GM and manager can't do anything right and their owner is too busy playing with his expensive toy to notice anything wrong.

Out of all of it, two things have stuck in my mind, and in an attempt to somehow dislodge it, I am putting it out here today.

ONE: Steve Stone was asked if, when Tom Ricketts was asked about his team and he replied that except for injuries everything is hunky-dory, if Tom should have been expected to register some sort of dissatisfaction about the performance of his team President, GM and Manager, and Stone said no, of course not.

Stone further explained that the Ricketts family holds the hammer in the Cubs organization, and thus has the power to clean house whenever they want to, however they want to, for whatever reason. Until they feel the need to actually do so, it makes no sense whatsoever to go on record and criticize the people in place.

This makes all the sense in the world. Suppose he did come out and say that he was sick of Crane Kenney's lack of progress in getting the Triangle complex built and the subsequent renovation of Wrigley Field? Or if he was to say he was miserable about the decisions Mike Quade was making in his lineup? Or if he was disappointed about the performance of the farm system, and felt shackled about all the bad paper Jim Hendry printed up and signed? What do you think would happen, then? What do you supposed would be said on the six-o-clock sports? On Comcast SportsNet? Hell, I actually believe that it would actually get a rise out of Sarah Kustok, which we all agree would be a good thing.

But I digress. What do you think Sully, Rozner and Bruce Miles would say? What about Phil Rogers and Gordon Wittemeyer? Good lord, Gordo would foam at the mouth. What about us, the God-forsaken bloggers sitting in our mom's basements with our pants around our ankles? Damn, the bloggers will twist this news a hundred different ways and start a thousand rumors...

Well, I don't think Tom Ricketts gives a schist about what the bloggers think, but he was smart in not taking the bait. He said what he should have said.

That's doesn't mean he thinks, or that it is true, that Kenney and Hendry and Quade are doing a good job. It is plain to one and all that they are all terrible at what they do. So it once again boils down to this: Do You Trust Your New Ownership? Are they really financially shackled? Are they simply being cautious and plan to act when they have all the right people in place? Or are they really still infatuated in being owners of the Chicago Cubs, and are too starstruck to see the forest through the trees? Or is there another option I haven't thought of?

Up to you, kids.

TWO: ever since Zambrano said "we stinks", rampant speculation about his getting traded to the Yankees has abounded. The Yankees certainly need pitching and are the only team who can afford to take on his big old paper. Z has helped the speculation grow by stating that he would waive his no-trade clause.

Can I take one more second here to bitch about no-trade clauses? Now, how many times have you actually heard about a player actually invoking his? How many times have you heard players say they would waive them for either an opportunity to win or an opportunity to make more money? It's, like, 20-1 in favor of waiving. Why the f**k do they even exist, when the vast majority of the time, they aren't even utilized?

Z is not being traded to the Yankees. Why? When was the last time the Yankees took another team's head case on? Try, never...they don't mess around with crazy people. They go get ballplayers, dependable guys.

That's not to say the Yanks aren't interested in one of the Cubs' hurlers, though. According to Steve Rosenbloom today, they are very interested in Ryan Dempster, because he's a bit cheaper and more reliable. They believe Demp is ready to do whatever it takes to win, including quashing some of his famous "humor" in the name of clubhouse unity.

This is far more plausible than any Yankee trades for Zambrano. So what do you think? Dempster's contract ends next year, same as Z. The Ricketts would same $21 million by trading Ryan, which is less than the $27 million they would save by trading Z, but $21 million still gives the owners a bit of financial wiggle room. Plus, it can be argued that we know what we would get out of Dempster (200 innings at a 4 ERA and 14 wins), and on the other hand, Z could at any time pitch the same number of innings at a 3 ERA, thus winning five more games.

Plus, while Dempster is a great guy, nobody really pays money to see him, whereas Z is often the life of the party and the price of admission.

I think we should start considering life without Dempster. He has more trade value than Z.

The Ten Best Cubs Right Now: Goat Picks

2011-06-17T12:39:10Z

Again, this list is meant to rank the current Cubs on talent in the current moment. If you needed to win a game tomorrow, who would you ask to pitch? If you needed a hit off a major league pitcher in the next 15 minutes, who would you send to the plate?

Yesterday I published the average results of your votes. Now here's where I stand on the matter:

10. Carlos Marmol

Where would this team be without him? The guy with the best pitch in baseball has done well in the closer's role for the Cubs. But I have him down here because he'll only ever pitch one inning in a game for you. I don't even care that he walks a batter an inning, because he can strike out anyone at any time.

9. Alfonso Soriano

He's not slow, and he's got a great arm, but Soriano continues to be a liability defensively because he takes "interesting" routes to the ball and has a bit of an iron glove after he gets to it. Lacks grace, you might say. But with the bat, he's got the second-most power on this team -- enough to justify even his .275 average and .300 on-base percentage. Sure he's overpaid at $18 million, but he's easily worth at least $10 million.

8. Aramis Ramirez

How the mighty have fallen -- although 2011 won't be as bad as we thought it might be just a few weeks ago. Aramis' bat is still good enough to get the job done, but the power decline is undeniable, even if he does bring his numbers back up somewhat in the second half. From 2004 to 2007 his slugging percentage was at or above .550; in 2008 and 2009 it fell just a bit, to .520, and in 2010 he ended up with a .452. He's now at .408. There's also the issue of his defense at third; the aggregate defensive ratings at Fangraphs suggest Aramis was 10 runs, or a full win worse than the average 3B on D in 2010.

7. Kosuke Fukudome

Fukudome still probably has less power potential than a declining Aramis, and they'll both hit around .270 from here on out. But Kosuke's eye at the plate is incredible, and has given him a .409 OBP so far this year. Plus, the defense: he's at least average in right field, according to the numbers, and the eye test says he's better than that.

6. Ryan Dempster

Demp had a terrible April, but since then: 53 strikeouts, 14 walks, and 20 runs allowed in 56 innings pitched, putting him in the low 3s for ERA. He won't be that good the rest of the way, but if the season started over today he'd still be considered a solid addition to any rotation in the majors. He's worth every dollar he's paid.

5. Carlos Pena

I can see Rob flipping out now; "He's hitting .220!!" It's true. (Wait 'til you see my pick for #4.) But like Dempster, Pena has rebounded from a rough April: of his 169 PA in May and June, 34 ended with hits, 30 ended with walks, and 10 ended with a home run. That's a .379 OBP and a SLG near .500. And even though first base isn't the most valuable defensive position, Pena plays it at a Gold Glove level.

4. Geovany Soto

This is probably the pick for which I will receive the most flack, especially considering Soto's poor batting line so far this season. A .220/.307/.384 is simply not good. But he's a career .263/.355/.460 hitter that plays CATCHER, and plays it well, ahead of Miguel Montero and Brian McCann in caught stealing percentage this season, and just .001 percentage points behind Yadier Molina. ZiPS ROS thinks he'll hit .250/.350/.450 the rest of the way (at catcher!!); if he doesn't, I'll buy you a beer.

3. Matt Garza

Bad timing on this one, after he just got lit up by Milwaukee yesterday. At least he got the win! Regardless, Garza has thrived in the NL Central, with 78 K in 71.2 IP against 29 walks. Yes, he's been hittable -- 73 allowed -- but it's up to you to decide whether that's skill, luck, or both (still a .340 BABIP this year, down to .275 in May/June). Personally, I like his stuff -- his average fastball velo is 93, and his slider is great. I think he's the best pitcher on the team.

2. Marlon Byrd

I guess I'm disregarding my own instructions; technically Byrd wouldn't be allowed to play "right now" by the team medical staff. But when he comes back, he'll be the Cubs second-most talented player right now. He hits .290, has a 10 HR/10 SB floor, and plays solid defense in a premium position on the field. He might not have enough power to hit 3rd, but I wouldn't mind having him hit 2nd. Also, guess who leads the team in Fangraphs WAR since Opening Day 2010? Yep, it's Byrd, and it's not close; his 5.7 WAR is well ahead of Soriano, Soto, and Castro, who are each at about 4.

1. Starlin Castro

Speaking of Castro, how 'bout that 21-year-old kid!! Seriously, 200 hits, 40 doubles, 10 triples and 20 steals are well within his reach -- and he plays shortstop! And he's 21! There are two knocks on him at this point, which are that he doesn't walk, and he's still error prone in the field. To the latter point, I would say that it's the easy plays that Starlin has the hardest time with, which makes me think it's a mental problem and not a skill problem -- which isn't to say that solving it is a foregone conclusion, but I at least think it is solvable. (In contrast, you can't teach Ryan Theriot range or arm strength.) As for the walks thing... how can you argue with those batting stats?! Also he walked twice yesterday, so there.

Long Live King Starlin! Now, please commence with the criticism of my ranks. Thank you!

Your Top Ten Cubs Revealed!

2011-06-16T13:27:15Z

You've submitted your votes. Here are the results:

1. Castro

2. Marmol

3. Zambrano

4. Soto

5. Garza

6. Dempster

7. Barney

8. Marshall

9. Soriano

10. Pena

Honorable Mention: Byrd, Ramirez, Fukudome, Cashner, Wells, Jackson

Tomorrow, I'll post my own list. But first, some comments on your comments:

- I think Matt Garza is the most talented pitcher on this team. It may not show in his win-loss record, and it doesn't help that he was injured recently, but the guy has great stuff, and has really benefitted from the switch from AL East to NL Central. Look at that K-rate: 75 in 66 IP! I'll have him ahead of both Z and Marmol in my rankings.

- It's interesting; I was about to ask: "Who would you rather have at the plate in the bottom of the ninth in a tie game with a runner on second and two outs: Barney, Pena, or Aramis?" The point was to try to show that Pena and Aramis are clearly better, but actually, considering the need for a hit of any kind in that situation, I think the answer might be Barney. But on a related note, who would you rather have up with two outs and a man on first? or nobody on? It's an interesting topic.

- I think Byrd is better than Soriano. That's all I'll say on the matter for now.

How does this list look? Do you agree with the masses? Who's too high, or too low?

Tomorrow: my list!

Where does the hope come from?

2011-06-15T23:01:18Z

Honestly? One of the most talked-about topics lately is the decreased amount of people willing to go to Cubs games. The fans are not filling the park anymore; what were once sure sell-out dates are coming up short. Crowds of less than capacity: 35,000, 30,000, 25,000 and on and on.

If you ask me, the real story isn't that attendance is decreasing at Wrigley Field. What boggles my mind is that there are still so many people who are willing to go to Wrigley Field.

Yes, a sporting event such as a baseball game is a form of entertainment, and entertainment is in the eyes of the beholder. But, assuming there aren't great traveling packs of morons who love seeing miserable fielding, slow baserunners and warning-track power, I would think "entertainment", as it pertains to a competitive endeavor such as a Cubs game, would be almost wholly dependent on the expectation of success.

Success, which in turn, comes from a belief, a hope, that the Cubs are going to play better today than their opponent. And to me, there just isn't any hope anymore.

We are all aware of the problems. One thing we learned recently, from Bruce Miles, I believe, is that many of my fears I have held since last year are in fact realities:

that in a league beset with horrible contracts, it is common knowledge that the Alfonso Soriano contract is the worst paper in the league. He is as untradeable as anyone in baseball.
it is also common knowledge that Aramis Ramirez is regarded as possibly the most disinterested player in baseball. Nobody wants him, either.
Kosuke Fukudome's agent was given carte blanche to work out a trade, any trade, last year, and was completely unsuccessful.
although many teams would be able to utilize a personal eight-game winning streak like the one Carlos Zambrano had last year, that the fear that his famous temper may explode again totally destroys the notion that the Cubs could expect anything of value in return if he was traded.
don't forget that the Cubs are still,in effect, paying for Milton Bradley. Furthermore, Carlos Pena has pretty much performed as one would expect: a tremendously poor average which is not quite beset by his occasional power. He, too, would not return much in a deadline deal, especially considering most of his salary due him is back-loaded.

These are just the bad money aspects of a team which, as previously mentioned, boasts the worst fielding in the league; the worst situational hitting; one of the worst performing starting rotations so far this year; and perhaps the slowest team in baseball.

Has any of this sparked your interest in Cubs baseball thus far?

Now, there are Starlin Castro and Carlos Marmol, both of whom are excellent, most of the time. But Castro is being woefully misused as a third-place hitter, and he may someday learn how to play shortstop. He doesn't quite get it right at the moment.

Once again, I realize I am not telling you anything new. But it is clear to me that all I have already mentioned points out the fact that any Hope any of us may possibly have about the Chicago Cubs, they of the bad paper and even worse baserunning, can only stem from one place:

The Ricketts family knows what it is doing.

I no longer think they know what they are doing. Recent articles point to the tremendous amount of debt they took on by purchasing the team (in probably the single worst financial time window of the past 100 years, I bet Sam freakin' Zell is probably laughing all the way to Hell). The Cubs are owned by a bunch of naifs who tend to believe everyone at their word; their strategic direction is being managed by a former Tribune starched shirt who thought it was a great idea to blackmail the State of Illinois at its historical financial low point; their on field product is designed by a sweaty ham-and-egger who never met a no-trade clause he didn't like, and is currently demonstrating his cowardice by blaming the Tribune for all the horrendous contracts he signed off on; and finally, on the field, the team is led by a bush-league jock-sniffer who gives everyone trite high-school nicknames, as if he was the stick-taper for a second-rate Canadian junior hockey team.

Simply put: a major league baseball team should, to a certain extent, be run like a business. It would not be constructive to just throw money at everything. Too much fiscal permissiveness breeds corruption. But at the same time, they do not keep score in the majors on the Dow Jones Industrial Averages, or on the balance sheets submitted to Bud Lite every year. They keep score in the Sports pages, under "Standings", and if you have a management team in place that designed a fifth-place team while paying out the most salary in the league, you have to fire them and bring in a new team.

If you, the owners, are SO financially strapped that you cannot afford to pay a new President, GM and Manager (all of which, combined, probably equal the salary paid to a middle infielder), along with the ones you had to fire, then you should not own a major league team.

Otherwise, I cannot possibly understand WHY the Ricketts are still employing Kenney, Hendry, and Quade, thus quashing any hope any reasonably intelligent Cub fan might still have?

So, if you ARE still turning out to the ballyard day after day, help me out with something: why? What do YOU see that I don't?

Who Are Your Top Ten Cubs?

2011-06-14T18:27:36Z

Ignore contract status, age, point of development, hair color, etc. for a moment and answer me this:

Who are the Cubs' ten most talented baseball players RIGHT NOW?

Leave your answers in the comments. Anyone that has a Now! account should comment. Let's see those rankings!

...One More Trade Thought: Could Marmol Be Moved?

2011-06-12T13:55:46Z

I thought I had covered most of the potential movers in my last post about Cub trade ideas, but one guy in particular got a lot of buzz in the comments, so I thought I'd give him his own post. Since humans usually read article titles before they read the body text, you know who I'm talking about: could the Cubs closer be traded soon?

When I made my first pass at identifying potential trade candidates, I dismissed Carlos Marmol for two reasons: one, the Cubs just signed him to a long-term deal, and two, that deal pays him a relatively great deal of money in 2012 and 2013.

If the Cubs were even thinking about dealing Marmol, why would they sign him for three years instead of one? The move almost automatically blocks out small-market teams from being interested in acquiring him. Then again, Marmol will be paid considerably less over the next three seasons than will Rafael Soriano, although how informative an exercise is it to compare player salaries to what the Yankees are making?

Having said all that, let's talk about the Yankees a little bit more. The aforementioned Soriano is expected to be out another several weeks with a bad elbow, and despite popular belief Mariano Rivera is not actually ageless, and might soon retire. If Soriano continues to be ineffective in his return from the DL, and Rivera decides to walk away at the end of this season, might we have ourselves a fit?

That's probably the only major market team that could have serious closer issues in the near future, right?

As dust settles, here are Cubs three trades I think will happen.

2011-06-11T16:30:01Z

After the last spate of injuries, combined with the team's 29-game losing streak (at least it seemed that long), the Cubs blogosphere appeared to go into sell mode. "Blow this team up!" "Trade everyone!" "I have feelings too!" "Do you even go to this school?" Etc.

And as is always the case with trade talk, many of the ideas that get thrown out first have a tendency to be ludicrous. When you ask a fan who should be traded, they'll scream the names of players like Soriano (that bum!), Zambrano, Fukudome, maybe Ryan Dempster.

But then, once the collective rage towards the team subsides a few days removed from the injuries/losing, it's easier to sit down and talk about which trades make sense, and which don't. For example, which team wants to acquire Alfonso Soriano right now?

Having said that, there are three trades that I think make sense for the Cubs. They involve players with relatively low salaries, on relatively short-term deals, with marketable skills, and trading them will open up spots for young Cubs that could use the major league experience.

1. Marlon Byrd to the Texas Rangers

This deal is contingent on Byrd's face healing and his continuing to hit once he returns from the DL. But even last year, when the Cubs were losing games left and right, Byrd was mentioned as a likely trade candidate: he's being paid something like $5 million a year in 2011 and 2012, he plays great center field defense, hits .300 with a tiny bit of pop, and isn't slow. I've tabbed the Rangers as his likeliest destination because 1) he's played there before, 2) Texas looks like a playoff team, and 3) Byrd would be an upgrade over Julio Borbon, who really looks more like a fourth outfielder than a starter.

(If teams are stingy with the dollars this summer, perhaps Reed Johnson might draw some interest instead of Byrd. It's really not so far off to think of Reed as a poor man's Marlon Byrd: he's another right-handed outfielder that can play center, hit for average with a bit of pop, and run well enough. But Johnson has had durability issues, and shouldn't be counted on to start every day. I could see the Cubs trading one of these players, but probably not both.)

2. Carlos Pena to the New York Yankees

As is usually the case with their team,the Yankees aren't having any trouble scoring this year, regardless of the handedness of the pitcher they're facing. But their current DH against righties is Jorge Posada, who is not having his best season ever (.215/.319/.373). Pena would undoubtedly be an upgrade, and every run counts.

3. Jeff Baker to the Boston Red Sox

Another injured player that could become a useful piece for a competitor if his rehab goes well. You know the deal with Baker as well as I do: right-handed utility guy that can really play just about anywhere on the field, with a .512/.512/.659 line against lefties this year, along with a .932 career OPS against lefties.

Much like their New York counterparts, no one in Boston is losing sleep over the Red Sox' ability to score runs. But after Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis, the lineup is really really left-handed. So maybe there's something there.

I don't think the Cubs will be trading any pitchers this year: most of the veterans are paid too much to draw interest, except for Kerry Wood, who took a discount to come back to Chicago, and I don't think Hendry would dick him over mid-season.

Having said that... I do see two players that could be moved. One is John Grabow; if anybody decides they need a replacement level left-hander for the middle innings, maybe they'll come ask about Grabow, who, by the way, sucks.

The other is Sean Marshall. Marsh is a great pitcher, but why spend $3 million on a set-up man in 2012 for a team that's nowhere near competing? And let's face it, the Cubs probably won't be ready to compete for a title next year -- although, they should be better than they are now. I think Sean's great, his salary is not that big a deal in the grand scheme of things, and I have no idea how the Cubs would finish games without him, but I could definitely see an argument for why he should be moved.

And here's the last thing I'll say about trades: I could see the Cubs moving Kosuke Fukudome to free up a corner spot for a younger player, but I think the Cubs would have to eat nearly all of his salary to do so, and I doubt they'd get anything good back, so why bother? OK, there, I'm done, if the team trades someone and I haven't mentioned them here I will slap myself as penance for my oversight.

Darwin Barney interview at Fangraphs

2011-06-10T15:10:48Z

Go there. Read it. Click one of these links. Please.

Thank you.

Is Blake DeWitt better than Darwin Barney?

2011-06-07T19:01:22Z

Inspired by all this draft talk, I was about to write up a post that speculated on the Cubs' likely lineup for Opening Day 2012. At least in my eyes it got pretty interesting pretty quickly; I put Brett Jackson in the leadoff spot batting first, for example.

In the two-hole, I had Blake DeWitt, playing second base. (Kudos to Veteran Goat Rider and current Baseball Prospectus writer Colin Wyers, @cwyers, for convincing me to give Blake another look.)

This is potentially controversial for many reasons. First: why am I all of a sudden consulting the Dusty Baker Guidebook for Setting a Lineup, where the centerfielder leads off and the second baseman bats second, regardless of hitting ability? I don't know! I have been replaced with a cyborg that is sympathetic to the enemy! Please help me escape!

Second, and perhaps more obviously: haven't we all agreed that Darwin Barney is Totally The Cubs' Best Player Ever Right Now? He hits! He fields! He dives! He runs (although he doesn't steal any bases)! He is so great! Great great great! And he also plays second base so what's DeWitt doing there?

Fact: both Barney and DeWitt were born in late 1985 (DeWitt is a few months older). Both have minor league career batting averages around .280, and minor career OBPs around .335. But DeWitt's isolated slugging percentage (again, SLG minus AVG, which shows extra-base hit ability) is twice that of Barney's.

Put another way: DeWitt had nine more extra-base hits in his age 23 season than Barney did in his, and DeWitt did it in 100 fewer PAs, and against better pitching (Barney still spent time in AA at age 23).

A frequent complaint is that Darwin Barney doesn't walk enough to succeed in the major leagues. Let me ask you something: why should anyone walk him? Barney's isolated slugging percentage in 2011 is .073; only one player with an ISO that low has an above-average walk rate (Daric Barton, FYI), because why should a pitcher go out of the zone on a three-ball count if the worst the opposing batter can do is single? Mark Ellis, Orlando Cabrera, Chone Figgins, Miguel Tejada, Omar Infante, Alcides Escobar, and The Great Ryan Theriot are among the few players with a lower ISO than Barney, and all have similar walk rates.

DeWitt's only walked once in limited playing time so far this season, but his career walk rate is 9.2%. So there you go.

I guess the Cubs could move DeWitt back to third next year, and keep Barney at second? Depends on how LeMahieu ends the year, what happens in free agency, and whether Aramis gets invited back for another year or three. What would you like to see happen?