GoHydrology.org

Did anyone have winter?

noreply@blogger.com (Robert Sobczak) — Thu, 01 Mar 2012 00:30:00 +0000

This winter's warm streak continues.

In Naples, there's only been eight days that failed to rise above 70° F.

You can count all 8 days on the chart above.
(This week has been particularly warm.)

Compare that to last winter and the one before that which averaged 35 and 42 such days.

Of course they were unusually cold winters by Naples standards.

Naples enjoyed consistent highs in the upper 70s
and lows in the upper 50s all winter

Or compare it to the continent where "real winter" resides ...

Well maybe not this year there either.

After the fire

noreply@blogger.com (Robert Sobczak) — Wed, 29 Feb 2012 19:00:00 +0000

Jarhead eight months later
February 2012

Spring drought repeat?

noreply@blogger.com (Robert Sobczak) — Wed, 29 Feb 2012 00:52:00 +0000

The swamp had a huge wildfire last spring …

Could this spring be shaping up the same?

Major wildfires tend to coincide
with deep drops in the water table

To answer that we can look to water levels.

In general, we know that as water levels drop through the winter and spring more and more wetland becomes exposed as dry land until at some point there is hardly any water to be found.

That’s the time when wildfires can really spread.

Below is a hydrograph of water stage in Big Cypress Nat’l Preserve partitioned to show six horizontal categories of drought severity. From lowest to highest they are (1) peak water, (2) sheetflow season, (3) fire breaks are flooded, (4) fire breaks dwindle, (5) swamp is bond dry, and (6) extreme drought.

Wildfires are biggest and most dangerous when the water table drops deeply (and for prolonged periods) into the orange and red zones.

Can you see the water table's deep dip
into drought (red) last spring?

The calendar chart below applies the same color coding to the past twenty years.

Can you see how the 1990s were wetter than the 2000s? The Jarhead fire also jumps out as having occurred during our deepest and most prolonged dry period of the past twenty years.

Wildfires are the biggest threat
when natural water breaks go dry.

Thus, to answer original question:

We aren’t at that level of drought yet …
But then again it isn’t even spring!

Last night's rain

noreply@blogger.com (Robert Sobczak) — Tue, 28 Feb 2012 21:31:00 +0000

Naples and La Belle got hammered ...
but the Big Cypress and Everglades stayed mostly dry

But don't kid yourself ...

noreply@blogger.com (Robert Sobczak) — Tue, 28 Feb 2012 19:00:00 +0000

South Florida is still winning
the "yearly" rainfall race

Panhandle moves south

noreply@blogger.com (Robert Sobczak) — Tue, 28 Feb 2012 01:44:00 +0000

The winter half of the year is our seasonal drought in south Florida ...

But up on the panhandle, continental fronts bring regular rains.

Winter precipitation is plentiful on the panhandle

Less frequently those fronts find their way south.

That's when south Florida gets its winter rains.

Speaking of which ...

We're getting some now.

Advanced birding

noreply@blogger.com (Robert Sobczak) — Mon, 27 Feb 2012 19:00:00 +0000

"This looks complicated."

Snail kite escargot

noreply@blogger.com (Robert Sobczak) — Mon, 27 Feb 2012 01:24:00 +0000

I'm always running into "real" apple snail shells.

Compare that to the snail kites who are finding more of the fakes.

As seen at downstream end
of the plugged Turner River Canal

Rarely if ever have I seen a live adult apple snail ...

But then again I probably just don't know where to look.

Here's to hoping the snail kites do. (read article)

Spring brown out?

noreply@blogger.com (Robert Sobczak) — Sun, 26 Feb 2012 19:00:00 +0000

"I'm thirsty!"

Plant that turned its back on spring?

noreply@blogger.com (Robert Sobczak) — Sat, 25 Feb 2012 23:09:00 +0000

Is this plant turning green for spring ...

Or is something else going on instead?

Turns green with a splash any season

The resurrection fern shows no such seasonal loyalty.

It only turns green whenever it rains.

Usually through spring it's shriveled up and brown.

Getting greener

noreply@blogger.com (Robert Sobczak) — Sat, 25 Feb 2012 19:00:00 +0000

February is the month
the cypress start greening out

Longest winter in four years?

noreply@blogger.com (Robert Sobczak) — Sat, 25 Feb 2012 01:47:00 +0000

When does winter turn into spring?

By March 1st the cypress are mostly greened out.

But don't forget that this is a leap year.

That means 29 days in February.

That makes this Florida's longest winter in four years.

Paradox of Florida's secret springs

noreply@blogger.com (Robert Sobczak) — Fri, 24 Feb 2012 19:00:00 +0000

Florida springs are warm during the winter
and refreshingly cold during the summer

A hydrologist tries to relax

noreply@blogger.com (Robert Sobczak) — Fri, 24 Feb 2012 00:12:00 +0000

Florida's biggest magnitude springs discharge over 500 million gallons per day.

But how much water is that really?

If you've never seen a Florida spring,
You're really missing out.

One of the issues of hydrology is that there are so many units.

Trying to relate one to the other can be a full time job.

Alternative answer: About 20 Fenways
(filled up to the Green Monster)
per day!

Or you can go to the stadium and relax instead.

Drought season approaches

noreply@blogger.com (Robert Sobczak) — Thu, 23 Feb 2012 19:00:00 +0000

Click on map to view
rainfall charts for your basin

Secret drought decoder ring

noreply@blogger.com (Robert Sobczak) — Thu, 23 Feb 2012 01:38:00 +0000

KBDI values by county can get sort of complex ...

After all, Florida has 67 counties in all.

Click on map to see statistical and historic charts
for each of Florida's 15 wildfire district

This map clumps the counties into 15 fire management districts.

For one it makes the patterns easier to see.

Even better?

You can click on the map to view each district's KBDI value within the statistical and historic range of the past 11 years: (1) Click on the color-coded districts to view a statistical graph and (2) click on the "circled h's" affiliated with each district to see a calendar chart showing each district's KBDI value from 2000 to present.

Drought severity in Myakka River has risen
above the 90th percentile for March

This approach lets you really slice and dice through the numbers:

For example, not only is the index highest in the Myakka River District, it's about 200 points (i.e. corrected from mm) higher than the 11-year median for the start of March. On the other hand the low readings in Chipola are perfectly normal for the panhandle in spring.

Special thanks to the Florida Forest Service for making this data available.

Here's more drought-tracking charts that I'll be updating weekly through the spring.

Click on tiles to view more drought data

Pine flatwoods mosaic

noreply@blogger.com (Robert Sobczak) — Wed, 22 Feb 2012 19:00:00 +0000

Mixed in with cypress domes

Paradox of the pine flatwoods sky

noreply@blogger.com (Robert Sobczak) — Wed, 22 Feb 2012 01:26:00 +0000

You know those perfect cloudy days when the sun still gets through?

This was one of them.

Scenic swamp of sun and shadows
February 2012

The rest of the week the cloud cover was thick (with periodic spitting rain).

Of course for most of the dry season we can count on a sky of mostly blue.

One of the paradoxes of the sunny dry season is that if we're going to have a shadowless stretch of leaden skies, we'll most likely have it then.

During the summer rainy season we see the sun almost every day.

Ephemeral foam line

noreply@blogger.com (Robert Sobczak) — Tue, 21 Feb 2012 19:00:00 +0000

Foam gathers in clumps on shore ...
then blows away

Is foam the fourth dimension?

noreply@blogger.com (Robert Sobczak) — Tue, 21 Feb 2012 00:03:00 +0000

Are there four phases of water:

Liquid, vapor, solid and foam?

Not to be mistaken with sand

Actually, there are only three.

To get foam you need organic matter, too.

Can you see the parachute surfers?

Plus lots of waves and wind.

In the winter when that happens it's foam season at the beach.

Who is your favorite president?

noreply@blogger.com (Robert Sobczak) — Mon, 20 Feb 2012 16:00:00 +0000

As seen at Iotacons
http://iotacons.blogspot.com/

Swamp's favorite president?

noreply@blogger.com (Robert Sobczak) — Mon, 20 Feb 2012 01:21:00 +0000

“Do more good than harm.”

That’s what colleague (actually he was quite a few years older than me) told everyone at a group gathering just before he left. There was a tinge of self righteousness in what he said, but it was also about the closest you’d ever hear him admit to any regret. He was a man of action and strong opinions who loved to play Devil’s Advocate ... to the chagrin of quite a few.

Had the swamp not been saved it could have been swallowed up by the Jetport instead

Funny how people leave and you never hear from them again.

But for some reason those words with me always stuck.

That brings us to President’s Day.

I’m old enough to remember when Washington’s Day and Lincoln’s Day were separate holidays. Then at some point they got combined into a single day to commemorate the Presidential office and all those that served from 1 to 44.

Diagram from a Nixon-era study that helped save the swamp from development

Perhaps the most common (and unwinnable) debate of the holiday is –

“Which President was the best,”
Or just as common, “your favorite?”

For the swamp the answer is clear:

Richard Nixon.

For most his name probably is inseparable from Watergate which – as a hydrologist – I would argue isn’t even that bad. Think about it, whenever you get people saying “water” and “gate” in a single sentence, and with conviction, that may be the only words with any inkling of a relation to the water cycle that they’ll say all day.

Big Cypress Nat'l Preserve was established in 1974

You see, Richard Nixon signed Big Cypress Nat’l Preserve into law,

Or in other words, he was the President who Saved the Swamp.

Did he do more good than harm?

It’s hard to say no if you live in the swamp.

King of palms

noreply@blogger.com (Robert Sobczak) — Sun, 19 Feb 2012 19:00:00 +0000

Twin Royal Palms near Deep Lake
May 2011

Princely palms

noreply@blogger.com (Robert Sobczak) — Sun, 19 Feb 2012 00:37:00 +0000

Are these coconut palms?

Unlike the royals they rarely grow up in a straight line.

If these are coconut palms, they are well trimmed.

I hope not here because they reach out dangerously over the road.

I see coconuts on the ground but rarely have I seen one fall, let alone on a car. This particular road is Gulf Shore Boulevard, on which you see plenty of fancy cars: Bentleys, Mazeratis, Lamborghinis, Mephistos (actually, I think that one is the name of a shoe), Lexi (is it me or does the plural of Lexus not sound right?) and of course Mercedes Benz.

It gets to the point during late winter tourist season that I feel like a downright pauper in my fuel-efficient sedan.

BTW: The vehicle in the photo is just a Ford.

Fun to see a Ford in the fancy car district

Henry Ford's winter estate is just up the road in Ft. Myers.

He's royalty down here in a way.

Not your typical airstrip in the swamp

noreply@blogger.com (Robert Sobczak) — Sat, 18 Feb 2012 19:00:00 +0000

Miami-Dade Jetport
Summer 2011