BRIGHT FUTURE FOR THE BALKANS

How to Rule Over Energy

noreply@blogger.com (BALKAN FUTURE STUDIES ASSOCIATION) — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 14:27:00 +0000

All is Energy and human energy is hidden in emotions. They rule over 95% of our life!
As powerful as they are though, human emotions (energy) are subject to a much stronger Force - the Mind!

So saying that ENERGY is omnipotent is right but incomplete. There is something much stronger and it rules over ENERGY - information or thought!

Quantum physics has confirmed that everything in the universe is pure energy, differing only in rate of vibration. It states that all things exist as energy even beyond our ordinary physical dimension. Current scientific instruments cannot measure all rates of vibration. All things exist as energy from the lowest rate of vibration, the densest physical form of matter all the way to the highest rate of vibration in the Universe, The Source, The Supreme Reason. Some people have the perspective that the physical world of matter and energy was created and therefore may be destroyed. However, information is not created. It is indestructible and eternal.

All worlds (Universes)and human beings form ONE LIVE ORGANISM and exist in complete synchronization with each other in accordance with a pre-determined program. Just like a human creature our Universe also has a blood transporting, lymphatic, breathing and other similar systems. They have the form of a closed spiral - atmospheric stream, vortex or layer. This determines the existence of cycles in Nature.

In the course of the last 2,500 years our mother Earth has been poisoned by negative feelings and thoughts of injustice and unhappiness.

"There are many people concerned about the environment of the planet. They want to save the rivers, oceans and forest. While that may be commendable, I can tell you that the energy from so many unhappy people on this planet is what is poisoning the environment more than everything combined." (Dr. R. Anthony)

What is the way to change this energy effects? Can this be done at all?

Well, there is a simple and elegant answer to this question. It happens to be another ancient secret re-discovered by modern science recently - the union of emotions, thoughts and feelings.

You can learn all about human emotions and thoughts and the lost ancient secret how to combine and use their creative power for personal improvement and the common good. Instead of offering you some lengthy academic explanations, I invite you to watch a short and vivid presentation. Just see all the clips from 1 to 7 in the video at the bottom, then ask questions or comment. You can thank me later.

To discover this Secret Click Here!

Balkan Coherence Initiative

noreply@blogger.com (BALKAN FUTURE STUDIES ASSOCIATION) — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 14:29:00 +0000

The Balkan Future Studies Association (BFSA) is a collective member of Global Coherence Initiative (GCI).

You may wish to join GCI and test it for personal empowerment and support of resonance with the Earth. Registration and participation are FREE. All it takes is stay at your PC for a few minutes.

Very easy and simple, something similar to Paneurhythmia - the Superior Cosmic Rhythm but done online, unfortunately without the Sun rays and fresh air!

You just have to focus your thought on a particular subject, event or person for a few minutes, then feel your energy rising!

In case you still do not believe in the power of human thought - both individual and collective, do the following:

1. Watch the video "Power of Thought"

2. Check the "One FREE Online Test Tells it All"

3. Watch the IBM-Ted.com shocking video on the human brain

4. Download the Secret Mind Weapon video

After that draw your conclusion.

Throughout history, cultures such as Egyptian, Hopi, Ancient Indian, Mayan, Aztec and Chinese, believed that their collective behavior could be influenced by the sun. Seers such as the famous psychic Edgar Cayce, claimed that humans meditating together could influence solar activity and that such meditations can help to establish a more peaceful future and reduce individual and collective stress. More and more groups are continuously forming with this intention. They are stanch believers that prayer, meditations and collective intentions, over time, can help upgrade consciousness and facilitate positive outcomes for the planetary whole.

Little is known about Bulgarian culture and the Teacher Petar Deunov (Beinsa Duno). A. Einstein said about him: "Many people pay homage to me and I pay homage to the Teacher Petar Deunov".When asked why he chose to come to Bulgaria the Teacher replied: "This is the most ancient people on the planet". The ultimate achievement of Petar Dunov is - Paneurhythmia - the Cosmic Dance of Life - watch the video clip below.

Contemporary coherent thinking as promoted by GCI and Paneurhythmia are identical in substance and purpose. Both regulate the physical, spiritual and mental functions of human creatures and our relationship with Mother Earth. Both are based on the MAIN law of the Universe - the law of Love.

To read all and join for FREE Click Here!

Balkan Coherence Initiative partner of GCI

noreply@blogger.com (BALKAN FUTURE STUDIES ASSOCIATION) — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 16:09:00 +0000

The Balkan Future Studies Association (BFSA) is a collective member of Global Coherence Initiative (GCI).

You can join FREE either BFSA or GCI for personal participation at any time. Just register and start reading the instructions.

In case you still do not believe in the power of human thought - both individual and collective, do the following:

1. Watch the video "Power of Thought"

2. Take the "One FREE Online Test Tells it All"

3. Download the FREE "Secret Mind Weapon"!

4. Ask a question or leave a comment HERE.

Join the Coherence Awareness Program - it is 100% FREE!

To read all and join --->Click Here!

Swine flu cheapest and safest remedy

noreply@blogger.com (BALKAN FUTURE STUDIES ASSOCIATION) — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 10:27:00 +0000

If some day a device to measure the optimal level of atomic oxygen in the body is manufactured, and to automatically regulate it, this would make any human completely sound and 90% of today's orthodox medicine and pharmacology useless.

I. P. Neumivakin

The cure4all remedies for any dis-ease discussed here, including oxygenation and hydrogen-peroxide recipes, are a small part of the little known secrets of water - the information-energy basis of all life on our Earth. You can discover them in WATER MAGIC on the main left bar menu or HERE! and get a deeper understanding.

The Many Uses of Hydrogen Peroxide: Truth! Fiction! & Unproven!

The Truth: Hydrogen peroxide's chemical representation is H2O2. It has uses in industry in it's purest form but the product available to most of us over-the-counter is usually only 3%hydrogen peroxide and 97% water. It breaks down quickly when exposed to light so it generally comes in brown bottles that filter out the sun's rays. It is known for its antibacterial qualities. The pure stuff is dangerous if not used correctly. There are also 30%-35% high strength solutions on the commercial market, typically found in health food stores but also sold as a disinfectant. There has been continuing controversy over using hydrogen peroxide either orally or through injection to treat a variety of internal ailments including arthritis and cancer. Proponents say that the oxygen released by the breakdown of thehydrogen peroxide is medicinal. Opponents say there isn't good evidence of the health benefits and that there are circumstances in which hydrogen peroxide can be dangerous. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has not approved those high strength hydrogen peroxide products for use internally and considers them dangerous...

Hydrogen peroxide occurs naturally in rain and snow, from atmospheric ozone, and in mountain streams where rushing water is continuously aerated. Most of us learned at an early age to drink only from a stream only where the water is running white, because that is where it gets cleansed of germs. The reason is that H2O2 is forming there due to its rapid agitation, and that's what kills any harmful microbes present.

By just shaking a bottle of water vigorously for a while you can tuck enough extra oxygen into it to form detectable amounts of H2O2, improving its purity, flavor and vitality.

It turns out that the spring waters at Lourdes, France, long recognized for their remarkable healing properties, are very high in naturalhydrogen peroxide . The spring is fed by high altitude snow melt, so the snow apparently absorbs unusually large quantities of ozone on its way from the upper atmosphere. Other less-known high altitude springs are said to be likewise effective.

Similar benefits can be obtained in a swimming pool or hot tub, by discarding the chlorination system and simply pouring in H2O2, or by bubbling ozone through the water. One simple method of making pool-grade ozone is to pump air past an enclosed ultraviolet lamp.

Raw, uncooked vegetables and fruits can contain natural hydrogen peroxide. Cooking drives off the extra oxygen. Fresh fruit juices are well known for their blood cleansing and revitalizing capabilities, particularly when they are not combined with other foods; this is largely due to the H2O2 they contain. Reconstituted frozen juices have much less and are no longer "alive", thus they are not nearly as effective.

CURE4ALL?

WE KNOW........VINEGAR/BAKING SODA AND NOW PEROXIDE - OUR MOTHERS WERE RIGHT!

I want to share this with you, which was written by Becky Ransey of Indiana: "I would like to tell you of the benefits of that plain little ol' bottle of 3% peroxide you can get for under $1.00 at any drug store. My husband has been in the medical field for over 36 years, and most doctors don't tell you about peroxide, or they would lose thousands of dollars.

1. Take one capful (the little white cap that comes with the bottle) and hold in your mouth for 10 minutes daily, then spit it out. (I do it when I bathe or shower.) No more canker sores and your teeth will be whiter without expensive pastes. Use it instead of mouthwash.

2. Let your toothbrushes soak a cup peroxide to keep them free of germs.

3. Clean your counters, table tops with peroxide to kill germs and leave a fresh smell. Simply put a little on your dishrag when you wipe, or spray it on the counters.

4. After rinsing off your wooden cutting board, pour peroxide on it to kill salmonella and other bacteria.

5. I had fungus on my feet for years - until I sprayed a 50/50 mixture of peroxide and water on them (especially the toes) every night and let dry.

6. Soak any infections or cuts in 3% peroxide for five to ten minutes several times a day. My husband has seen gangrene that would not heal with any medicine, but was healed by soaking in peroxide.

7. Put two capfuls into a douche to prevent yeast infections. I had chronic yeast infections until I tried this once or twice a week.

8. Fill a spray bottle with a 50/50 mixture of peroxide and water and keep it in every bathroom to disinfect without harming your septic system like bleach or most other disinfectants will

9. Tilt your head back and spray into nostrils with your 50/50 mixture whenever you have a cold, plugged sinus. It will bubble and help to kill the bacteria. Hold for a few minutes then blow your nose into a tissue.

10. If you have a terrible toothache and can not get to a dentist right away, put a capful of 3% peroxide into your mouth and hold it for ten minutes several times a day. The pain will lessen greatly.

11. And of course, if you like a natural look to your hair, spray the 50/50 solution on your wet hair after a shower and comb it through. You will not have the peroxide burnt blonde hair like the hair dye packages, but more natural highlights if your hair is a light brown, faddish, or dirty blonde.It also lightens gradually so it's not a drastic change.

12. Put half a bottle of peroxide in your bath to help rid boils,fungus, or other skin infections.

13. You can also add a cup of peroxide instead of bleach to a load of whites in your laundry to whiten them. If there is blood on clothing, pour directly on the soiled spot. Let it sit for a minute, then rub it and rinse with cold water. Repeat if necessary.

14 This list didn't have it, but I use peroxide to clean my mirrors;there is no smearing, which is why I love it so much for this.

15. Gargle with hydrogen peroxide, put drops in the ear and nose to end colds, flu, chronic sinusitis (including polyps], and infections.

16. Use as a vegetable wash or soak to kill bacteria and neutralize chemicals.

17. Disinfect your dishwasher or refrigerator.

18. Use it on trees and plants as a natural fungicide, insecticide, and as a weed killer

19. Clean with hydrogen peroxide when your house becomes a biohazard after its invaded by toxic mold, such as those with water damage.

Throughout the world hydrogen peroxide is used instead of chlorine as a safer and eco-friendly municipal water purifier. Some use H2O2 in pools and spas.

EATING, FASTING AND OXYGEN BALANCE

Overeating is so common, especially in the US, it's considered "normal". One cause is the widespread use of oral antibiotics. While destroying the target germs, these drugs also kill off one's intestinal flora, which are needed for healthy digestion. With these friendly bacteria gone, digestive efficiency plummets. As a result, the sensation of hunger comes more often and lasts longer, as the body tries to compensate for ineffective digestion by increasing the amounts consumed. Fatloss is a major problem for 75% of people in the USA. Even just eating daily, without ever giving the gastro-intestinal tract a rest, loads down the blood with toxins and impurities, especially uric acid crystals. Under a microscope these resemble tiny coffin lids, interestingly enough, another clue to our Creator's whimsical sense of humor. When the waste products exceed the cleansing capacity of the kidney's, the blood ends up just having to haul it around the body and stash it wherever possible. These toxins literally take up so much room in the blood cells that the cells can't take on enough oxygen when they pass through the lungs. The bloods primary function of picking up and distributing oxygen gets blocked by overuse of garbage-hauling function.

IS HYDROGEN PEROXIDE ONE OF THE GREATEST HEALING MIRACLES OF ALL TIME?
This is the question that so many eminent medical practitioners are all arguing about. What can be agreed is that the human body requires oxygen and our bodies do not metabolize this vital element at a rate of 100% and our global oxygen levels are shrinking. Hydrogen Peroxide is water with an extra oxygen atom so it makes perfect sense that ingesting, injecting or applying transdermally would indeed increase the oxygen level within. That’s got to be a good thing. Since the 1800’s this molecular mix has been attributed to curing:

Allergies, Altitude Sickness, Alzheimer's, Anemia, Asthma, Bacterial Infections, Bronchitis, CANCER, Candida, Cardiovascular Disease, Cerebral Vascular Disease, Chronic Pain, Diabetes Type 11, Digestion Problems, Emphysema, Food Allergies, Fungal Infections, Gingivitis Headaches, Herpes Simplex, HIV Infection, Influenza, Liver Cirrhosis Multiple Sclerosis, Parkinsonism, Prostatitis, Rheumatoid Arthritis,Viral Infections, Yeast Infections...

In brief it has four beneficial effects on the human organism:

increases free radicals

kills pathogens

supplies atomic oxygen needed for the transportation of electricity among cells

slows down the aging process

For full details on H2O2 and aging CLICK HERE!

Cell phone danger - cause of many diseases

noreply@blogger.com (BALKAN FUTURE STUDIES ASSOCIATION) — Sat, 26 Sep 2009 19:27:00 +0000

Every day, we’re swimming in a sea of electromagnetic radiation (EMR) produced by electrical appliances, power lines, wiring in buildings, and a slew of other technologies that are part of modern life. From the dishwasher and microwave oven in the kitchen and the clock radio next to your bed, to the cellular phone you hold to your ear—sometimes for hours each day—exposure to EMR is growing and becoming a serious health threat.

But there’s a huge public health crisis looming from one particular threat: EMR from cellular phones—both the radiation from the handsets and from the tower-based antennas carrying the signals—which studies have linked to development of brain tumors, genetic damage, and other exposure-related conditions. Yet the government and a well-funded cell phone industry media machine continue to mislead the unwary public about the dangers of a product used by billions of people. Most recently, a Danish epidemiological study announced to great fanfare the inaccurate conclusion that cell phone use is completely safe.10

George Carlo, PhD, JD, is an epidemiologist and medical scientist who, from 1993 to 1999, headed the first telecommunications industry-backed studies into the dangers of cell phone use. That program remains the largest in the history of the issue. But he ran afoul of the very industry that hired him when his work revealed preventable health hazards associated with cell phone use.

In this article, we look at why cell phones are dangerous; Dr. Carlo’s years-long battle to bring the truth about cell phone dangers to the public; the industry’s campaign to discredit him and other scientists in the field; and what you can do to protect yourself now.Cell Phones Reach the Market without Safety Testing.

The cellular phone industry was born in the early 1980s, when communications technology that had been developed for the Department of Defense was put into commerce by companies focusing on profits. This group, with big ideas but limited resources, pressured government regulatory agencies—particularly the Food and Drug Administration (FDA)—to allow cell phones to be sold without pre-market testing. The rationale, known as the “low power exclusion,” distinguished cell phones from dangerous microwave ovens based on the amount of power used to push the microwaves. At that time, the only health effect seen from microwaves involved high power strong enough to heat human tissue. The pressure worked, and cell phones were exempted from any type of regulatory oversight, an exemption that continues today. An eager public grabbed up the cell phones, but according to Dr. George Carlo, “Those phones were slowly prompting a host of health problems.”

Today there are more than two billion cell phone users being exposed every day to the dangers of electromagnetic radiation (EMR)—dangers government regulators and the cell phone industry refuse to admit exist. Included are: genetic damage, brain dysfunction, brain tumors, and other conditions such as sleep disorders and headaches.1-9 The amount of time spent on the phone is irrelevant, according to Dr. Carlo, as the danger mechanism is triggered within seconds. Researchers say if there is a safe level of exposure to EMR, it’s so low that we can’t detect it.

The cell phone industry is fully aware of the dangers. In fact, enough scientific evidence exists that some companies’ service contracts prohibit suing the cell phone manufacturer or service provider, or joining a class action lawsuit. Still, the public is largely ignorant of the dangers, while the media regularly trumpets new studies showing cell phones are completely safe to use. Yet, Dr. Carlo points out, “None of those studies can prove safety, no matter how well they’re conducted or who’s conducting them.” What’s going on here? While the answer in itself is simplistic, how we got to this point is complex.

Cell Phone Radiation: What You Need to Know:

Read all--->

Swine flu pandemic is here again

noreply@blogger.com (BALKAN FUTURE STUDIES ASSOCIATION) — Sat, 19 Sep 2009 14:47:00 +0000

Swine flu epidemic is raising fear all over the world.

US health officials say up to 40 percent of Americans could get swine flu this year and next and several hundred thousand could die without a successful vaccine campaign and other measures. Similar forecasts and TV commercials are aired all over the world, though with different degrees of anxiety.

The estimates by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are roughly twice the number of those who catch flu in a normal season and add greater weight to hurried efforts to get a new vaccine ready for the fall flu season.

Swine flu has already hit the United States harder than any other nation, but it has struck something of a glancing blow that's more surprising than devastating. The virus has killed about 300 Americans and experts believe it has sickened more than 1 million, comparable to a seasonal flu with the weird ability to keep spreading in the summer.

Health officials say flu cases may explode in the fall, when schools open and become germ factories, and the new estimates dramatize the need to have vaccines and other measures in place.

Read all --->

Ancient Knowledge and Patterns of Consiousness

noreply@blogger.com (BALKAN FUTURE STUDIES ASSOCIATION) — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 13:35:00 +0000

Ancient Knowledge and Modern Science

Some preparation is needed before delving into

the secrets of information in the form of

knowledge. The explanation is simple - the

conflict between logical and spiritual

thinking (reason/science <--> faith/religion).

I have chosen the subject of "Ancient Knowledge and Modern Science" as a first step.

This article was originally published by PhD. R. Gilbert in the

June-August 2006 issue of SHIFT Magazine, which is now a monthly

e-zine for conscious culture published by the Institute of

Noetic Sciences. The author was involved in psychological

military research which reminds me of the identical origin of

the Internet.

For good or ill, modern life is marked by our unprecedented

mastery of the physical world. This mastery can take a

beneficial form in harmony with nature, or more commonly it

becomes a destructive force, exploiting nature without

consideration of long- term dangers have become accustomed to a

steady stream of daily news reports about the human and

environmental problems resulting from shortsighted applications

of modern technology. Fundamental life- support systems such as

the oceans and the atmosphere are quickly eroding. The stark

truth is that our world is being shaped by a modern science that

manipulates life's natural patterns while often lacking the

contextual understanding to do so responsibly Yet, just as our

piecemeal exploitation of natural structures and patterns has

created a crisis, so can a new new holistic science based on

natural patterns help to resolve it.

Sacred geometry is a relatively modern term for the study of the

archetypal patterns that create everything in the material

world. The name tends to carry undertones of a secret spiritual

knowledge held and used by different traditions around the

world, and there is good reason for this association. Throughout

human history, great spiritual traditions have gathered and

cultivated private knowledge of the core patterns of creation.

Sacred geometry is often associated with sacred architecture,

the classical work of master architects and temple builders;

however, this is only the most visible aspect of this knowledge.

In reality, the deeper, often hidden, teachings apply this

knowledge to areas ranging from healing sciences to spiritual

initiation. The essential concept behind all of these

applications is simple:

Everything has a pattern, and that pattern is the key to

creating a specific effect.

From a holistic perspective, what we can call sacred geometry

is in fact humanity's legacy of pattern knowledge from all our

forebears. At every scale of existence, from the subatomic to

the galactic, the same key patterns bring all things into

existence. It is a remarkable historical fact that many of these

same patterns (including shapes, forms, proportions, and

rhythms) have been well known for centuries, but within a much

more holistic context than today. They are part of nature's

toolbox for effecting change and expressing itself. To give

several simple examples. Nature uses the circle and the sphere

as the primal container for energy and consciousness; it uses

the vortex form to circulate and transmit energy and

consciousness from one location to another; it uses the five

perfect divisions of the sphere (popularly called the Platonic

Solids) as the basis for diverse forms of matter.

(Modern science of quantum physics has revealed that the effects

of geometrical figures, including pyramids, cones, etc. are

based on torsion fields and physical vacuum called zero energy.

Read all ->

A Stimulus Plan With Dual Goals: Reform and Recovery

noreply@blogger.com (BALKAN FUTURE STUDIES ASSOCIATION) — Sun, 01 Feb 2009 17:59:00 +0000

WASHINGTON — As President Obama and Congress barrel toward the latest emergency program to resuscitate the American economy, one question is looming over their search for a cure: Can the government fashion a fast and efficient economic stimulus while also seizing the moment to remake America?
For now, Mr. Obama and his aides are insisting they can accomplish both goals, following their mantra of using the urgency of the economic crisis to accomplish larger — and long-delayed — reforms that never garnered sufficient votes in ordinary times.

In fact, at various times in American history, moments like this one have been used for big programs, from integrating the armed forces to creating Social Security and, later, Medicare. So it is little wonder that everyone with a big, stalled, transformative project — green energy programs, broadband networks that reach into rural America, health insurance for the newly unemployed or uninsured — is citing the precedent of Franklin D. Roosevelt, and declaring that a new New Deal is overdue.

But the question that the Senate will begin debating Monday is whether grand ambitions are getting in the way of pulling the country out of a nose dive. And so for every comparison of this moment to Roosevelt’s first hundred days, there are warnings that much of his social experimentation did not have a big impact on America’s economic recovery, which took years.

“When you are filling a hole this big and adding to America’s debt on such a large scale, you need to make sure every dollar is aimed for the economic boost you need,” said Martin S. Feldstein, a Harvard economist who warned more than a year ago that the United States economy was about to be hit between the eyes.

Mr. Feldstein has provided the economic arguments behind Republican objections that Mr. Obama is starting a long-term expansion of government, after decades in which the United States has relied on market solutions and encouraged nations around the world to do the same.

The economic arguments mask, for some, a primal fear that this is 1933 all over again, the beginning of a 21st century liberal resurgence.

The comparisons to 1933 are sure to resound even louder in the next week. Much as Roosevelt imposed a “bank holiday” in his first days in office to stop the run on American financial institutions, Mr. Obama promised in his weekly address to the nation on Saturday that Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner would soon announce “a new strategy for reviving our financial system that gets credit flowing to businesses and families.”

That is bound to revive the question of whether anything short of nationalizing some of America’s biggest banks, even briefly, can get the job done.

Taken together, the economic stimulus plan and the banking bailout have quickly melded into a bitter political and ideological clash, barely two weeks into the Obama presidency.

Some of what is going on might best be called a classic case of pent-up demand — demand by Democrats for the kinds of programs that they could never get passed during the Bush years.

After years of battling with a White House that questioned the science behind global warming, Democratic lawmakers see a chance to begin programs aimed at environmental protection, using economic justifications for efforts like developing low-emission cars. And with a Democrat in the White House, they also see an opening to push for increased spending on education.

The efforts are fueled by a liberal base that supported Mr. Obama’s promise that he would tackle the biggest issues. That same base is concerned that the long slog ahead will force a delay or an abandonment of those ambitions.

As a result, there is $54 billion in the House bill for new forms of “American energy,” a phrase with an air of nationalism, along with a series of “Buy America” requirements of dubious legality under trade treaties; $141 billion for education; $24 billion for lowering health care costs; and $6 billion for broadband service, the digital equivalent of Lyndon B. Johnson electrifying the Hill Country in Texas.

(Some critics of that effort say it is pitifully small, too small to fulfill Mr. Obama’s campaign promise that all Americans should enjoy “the highest form of broadband access.”)

To those who argue that many of the programs will take years to get rolling, their advocates have replied, “So what?”

“It’s not as if we can just fix what’s wrong and go back to normal,” said James K. Galbraith, an economist at the Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs in Austin. “Can you overdo? Maybe, but it’s easier to pull back later than to make up for the fact that you did too little.”

But the result is that a piece of “emergency” legislation that would spend heavily to stanch the killing of jobs is now transforming into a series of long-term commitments that are sure to add enormously to the national debt, and keep adding to it long after the Panic of 2008 and the recession — or worse — that it set off are consigned to history.

Republicans see a chance to do something they could do only quietly, and rarely, until President George W. Bush flew out of the city 11 days ago: protest huge deficit spending. Now, they are freer to complain — as Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky did on Saturday in the Republican response to Mr. Obama’s address, when he argued that “permanent spending would be expanded by about $240 billion” in the House, which would “lock in bigger and bigger deficits every year.”

(Mr. McConnell was less vocal in his opposition when President Bush declared that the combination of 9/11, a downturn and the expansion of the military budget required deficit spending.)

The Republicans have been joined by a small band of Democratic fiscal conservatives whose message does not seem to match the party’s mood.

“Because we’re doing this outside the budget process, it means no one has to talk about what the long-term effects of any of this might be,” said Alice M. Rivlin, an economist at the Brookings Institution and a former member of the Federal Reserve, who supports a major stimulus package. She testified recently in Congress about the need to separate short-term economic stimulus from a broader agenda — which embraces everything from fixing America’s schools to improving health care for children.

“We seem to be counting on the Chinese to keep investing to pay for this,” Ms. Rivlin said, referring to the huge amount of United States government debt held by China, “and we’re assuming that the rest of the world isn’t going to lose confidence once we use this moment to spend on a whole range of programs. And I’m just not sure that’s the right assumption.”

Ms. Rivlin raises what may turn out to be the most urgent question of all in a few months.

When Roosevelt took America down new roads, he financed it at home. Mr. Obama does not have that luxury: He must persuade not only Congress and the public but also world financial markets, which must decide whether — and at what interest rate — they are willing to finance his plan.

That is the three-dimensional chess game the administration must play as it tries to mount the biggest economic rescue plan in more than seven decades.

story

Putin’s Grasp of Energy Drives Russian Agenda

noreply@blogger.com (BALKAN FUTURE STUDIES ASSOCIATION) — Thu, 29 Jan 2009 08:36:00 +0000

Prime Minister Vladimir V. Putin and Alexei Miller, the chief executive of Gazprom, in a control room in Moscow this month.

Vladimir V. Putin has long built his strategy for the rebirth of Russia around the export of natural resources.

full story

German constitutional court to examine Lisbon treaty

noreply@blogger.com (BALKAN FUTURE STUDIES ASSOCIATION) — Thu, 22 Jan 2009 18:11:00 +0000

EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS - Germany's constitutional court is preparing for an unusually long hearing on the EU's Lisbon treaty in a process that will help determine the fate of the document across the European Union.

Over two days next month (10-11 February) the court's judges will discuss whether the treaty breaches Germany's constitution.

Germany's constitutional court is to hold a hearing on the treaty next month (Photo: EUobserver.com)

The time the court has allotted for the debate is exceptionally long. According to Focus magazine, it only happens once or twice in a decade that the court gives more than one day for a hearing.

The court is considering a complaint brought by conservative MP Peter Gauweiler, who has argued that the treaty infringes on the rights given to German citizens in their country's constitution by allowing a foreign court - the European Court of Justice - to decide upon such issues.

He also argues that the treaty undermines the power of Germany's own parliament, the Bundestag.

Dietrich Murswiek, the lawyer handling the case for Mr Gauweiler, also remarked on the hearing's length: "This shows that the constitutional court is taking the issue very seriously. A hearing of longer than a day happens very rarely."

Although Germany's parliament has ratified the treaty and the president has signed it off, the final step to complete the process – formally handing the papers over in Rome – will remain stalled until the court has decided.

But the fate of the treaty, which has to be ratified in all 27 member states to come into force, remains in the balance in three additional countries.

The Czech Republic, Poland and Ireland also have yet to complete ratification. The Czech parliament is due to debate the charter at the beginning of February. If it passes parliament, it then faces another hurdle in the shape of the country's eurosceptic president, Vaclav Klaus, who must also give his approval.

Ireland is having another go at ratifying the treaty after it was rejected by Irish citizens last June. The second referendum will take place in the autumn. The result will directly influence Poland's treaty situation.

Polish President Lech Kaczynski has said he will only give the nod to the treaty if Ireland's referendum produces a Yes vote.

Russia turns on Europe's gas supply

noreply@blogger.com (BALKAN FUTURE STUDIES ASSOCIATION) — Tue, 13 Jan 2009 10:49:00 +0000

MOSCOW, Russia (CNN) -- Russia has started pumping natural gas to Europe again through Ukrainian pipelines, a week after the gas flow was interrupted.
The chief dispatcher for Russian energy giant Gazprom was shown on Russian television giving the order to start pumping gas. Sergei Pavlov said the gas will be pumped via Ukraine to consumers in the Balkans, Turkey, and Moldova.

The order came after Russia signed an agreement to end a bitter dispute with Ukraine, which transports Russian gas to Europe.

The weeks-long confrontation between Moscow and Kiev interrupted supplies to countries from across northern, central and southern Europe to Turkey during an unusually cold winter.

An earlier deal brokered by the European Union had collapsed Sunday after Russia said terms which Ukraine had attached to the agreement were unacceptable. Video

Watch what led to the breakdown in the deal »

A return to 1815 is the way forward for Europe

noreply@blogger.com (BALKAN FUTURE STUDIES ASSOCIATION) — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 16:45:00 +0000

The Congress of Vienna divided the continent into spheres of influence. Similar rules are needed for the 21st century

Those who think that there is such a thing as progress in international affairs - that we are capable of learning the lessons of history - have been brutally disabused by the Georgian crisis. You can have all the rules you like to discipline international behaviour; but they are not worth the paper they are written on if they run against fierce nationalisms and ethnic passion.

Ethnic and nationalist rivalry is as old as sin, and as inextinguishable. As a diplomat in Britain's Moscow Embassy during the Cold War, I spent time in two of the Caucasian republics, Georgia and Azerbaijan. They were then under Moscow's heel as part of the Soviet Union. Their loathing of Russians was palpable.

At the time of my visits, Stalin, a Georgian by birth, was still officially a non-person, airbrushed by his successors from the annals of Soviet history. But in defiance of Moscow his portraits could still be seen in Georgian state farms and government offices. I asked a Georgian official why this was so. “Because he killed so many Russians,” came the sardonic reply.

The feeling was mutual. Later in Moscow I related my Caucasian experiences to Leonid Brezhnev's interpreter, Viktor Sukhodrev. “That's no place for a white man,” he said with his impeccable North London accent (he had equally good American).
Recent events have shown no weakening in these ancient hatreds. But the Western powers behaved as if caught on the hop. Last year a French diplomat warned me that once Kosovo got its independence (itself the unnatural product of Balkan hatreds), Russia would feel free to make its move in Georgia. And so it has come to pass. As a Times leader put it recently, history has resumed, leaving Francis Fukuyama, the apostle of its end, trailing in its wake. But Professor Fukuyama was adrift from the very start. Once the iron fists of the former Soviet Union and Tito's Yugoslavia had been removed, nationalist and ethnic tensions broke surface with the murderous velocity of the long suppressed. Contrary to what David Miliband has been telling us, the glacial years of the Cold War were “the period of calm”. The years since have been marked by the constant turmoil of history's march.

Globalisation and interdependence were supposed to have swept aside these ancient feuds and rivalries. Theories of the postmodern state now abound. Tony Blair preached how national interest would be trumped by the spread of “global values”. This is self-evident rubbish. For here is the paradox of the modern world. Money, people, culture, business and electronic information cross porous frontiers in ever-increasing volume. But as national boundaries dissolve in cyberspace, so everywhere the sense of nationhood and national interest strengthens. Five minutes in Beijing, Washington, Tehran or Moscow will tell you that. What is the European Union if not the 21st-century arena for the intense and competitive prosecution of the national interest by its 27 member states?

It is useless to say that nationalism and ethnic tribalism have no place in the international relations of the 21st century. If anything the spread of Western-style democracy has amplified their appeal and resonance. The supreme fallacy in foreign policy is to take the world as we would wish it to be and not as it actually is. In Britain's case, the delusion is compounded when we are powerless to effect the outcome we desire. This has been particularly the case with Russia, where we have managed to be both impotent and provocative. If we really want to put a halt to bad Russian behaviour, let us do so where we can make a difference, and where it is justified - starting with the expulsion of the vast nest of Russian intelligence officers in London, as Labour and Conservative governments did not hesitate to do in the 1970s.

We can foolishly downgrade national interest within the armoury of British diplomacy, if we wish. But we had better not underestimate its driving force in the international behaviour of others. That is the road to dangerous miscalculation.

Take Russia, China and Iran. Each seethes at the recollection of what it considers historical humiliations visited on it by Western powers. For all three the beginning of the 21st century has opened opportunities for payback - for getting respect as a nation (just look at recent Russian newspapers). You don't have to like or approve of these regimes. But not to understand their histories is not to understand the mainspring of their external policies - in Russia's case its determination to rebuild its greatness, dismantled, as millions of Russians see it, by Mikhail Gorbachev and his Georgian Foreign Minister, Eduard Shevardnadze, aided and abetted by the West. I would bet a sackful of roubles that Russian foreign policy would not be one jot different if it were a fully functioning democracy of the kind that we appear keen to spread around the globe.

What is to be done, as Lenin once put it? The first thing is to sweep away any rose-tinted illusions left from the Blair-Bush era. For the democracies of North America and Europe, relations with Russia are always going to be awkward and bumpy, at best co-operative and adversarial in equal measure.

The fall of the Soviet Union did not wipe the slate clean. The Russia that we are dealing with today, with its fear of encirclement, its suspicion of foreigners and natural appetite for autocracy, is as old as the hills, long pre-dating communism. It is a Russia that will never be reassured by the West's protestations of pacific intent as it pushes Nato and the EU ever eastwards.

Most important of all, Russia and the West need to draw up rules of the road for the 21st century. Mr Miliband and others have condemned the notion of returning to the geopolitics of the Congress of Vienna which, in 1815 after the Napoleonic Wars, divided Europe into spheres of influence between empires and nations. They perhaps forget that what was agreed at Vienna held at bay for almost a century a general European war.

Something similar is needed today, based again on spheres of influence. Nato must renounce the provocative folly of being open to Georgian or, worse, Ukrainian membership. This strikes at the heart of the Russian national interest and offers no enhanced security to either Tbilisi or Kiev. As for Russia, it must be made unambiguously clear where any revanchist lunge westwards would provoke a military response by Nato.

This may sound shocking and anachronistic to the modern sensibility. But, there is no other way to remove the scope for miscalculation, the mother of far too many wars.

Sir Christopher Meyer was Ambassador to Washington, 1997-2003

Comments:

The rise of rabid nationalism is in step with the rise of American
and western Imperialism.
Why shouldnt Indians Chinese Iranians and Russians react
to western influence considering the way they have been treated by the west in past ages and the rules of behaviour made to favour the west.

hortense vaughan, sydney,

To be honest, I can't see the need for a NATO anymore. After the collapse of the communism the existence became obsolete, since it was defensive only. Nowaday the NATO brings more harm than security.
Why should e.g. Germany risk a war with Russia for American Interests in the Caucasus?

Friedrich, Berlin,

The world of diplomacy is hopelessly out-of-date and still acts on behalf of politicians, who themselves often have little experience of life overseas. This contrasts with international managers who have testing executive experience abroad. Perhaps we need a a new treaty of Westphalia?

Brian Lewis, Manila, Philippines

Why has the EU never encouraged Russia's membership?
Is Russia less European than Turkey?
Why is it always treated as an enemy who must be contained and never as a potential member, or at least a valuable partner?
What's in Ukraine or Georgia that makes them more worthy of European esteem?

Dave, Barcelona, Spain

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TATO

noreply@blogger.com (BALKAN FUTURE STUDIES ASSOCIATION) — Wed, 31 Dec 2008 10:51:00 +0000

No comment needed.

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Israel continues attacks on Gaza

noreply@blogger.com (BALKAN FUTURE STUDIES ASSOCIATION) — Mon, 29 Dec 2008 09:13:00 +0000

The death toll from a weekend of Israeli airstrikes on Gaza tops 300, Palestinian medical sources say as the Hamas-ruled territory endures a third day of air raids. Each side blames the other for violating an Egyptian-brokered cease-fire that formally expired on Friday, December 19.

full story

Riots in Greece going on

noreply@blogger.com (BALKAN FUTURE STUDIES ASSOCIATION) — Tue, 23 Dec 2008 10:29:00 +0000

Violent riots rage on in Greece

Riot police and youths clash again in Greek capital. Journalist Anthee Carassava reports.

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The Top 10 Questions of 2008

noreply@blogger.com (BALKAN FUTURE STUDIES ASSOCIATION) — Mon, 22 Dec 2008 06:58:00 +0000

Some years stand out in our minds, stamped into our memories by the dramatic events that unfolded during those 365 days. Maybe for you it's 1929, the year of the momentous stock market crash that kicked off the Great Depression. Or 1969, when Neil Armstrong became the first person to set foot on the moon. Or 1989, when the Berlin Wall finally came tumbling down.

The year 2008 may wind up burning just as brightly in our collective consciousness. We saw the United States elect Barack Obama, the country's first black president. We witnessed the complete unraveling of the global financial markets, and we watched food prices climb so high that eating three meals a day became a luxury that many of us couldn't afford. It was also the year in which words like "grassoline" seeped into the public lexicon and in which Google continued its bid for general world domination.

At HowStuffWorks, we're never content to watch history happen. We're bent on poking around for the reasons behind these big events. So stick with us as we answer the top 10 questions of 2008, and we'll satisfy our curiosity together.

First up, vaccines and autism.

Surgeons implant a donor heart in a patient.
One day, that replacement heart could be made of your own cells

8: Grassoline: Can we fuel cars with grass?

Don't start hording your grass clippings just yet. Switchgrass, a promising source for making cellulosic ethanol -- a type of fuel derived from plants -- probably isn't carpeting your backyard, although the perennial is found in the Americas and parts of Africa. The tall grass looks more at home billowing in the prairie, maybe alongside a field of corn, another source of ethanol for your car.

7: Why is offshore drilling so controversial?

Whether you cheered when Gov. Sarah Palin famously exclaimed, "Drill, baby, drill!" or slapped your palm to your forehead in horror, you heard a lot about offshore drilling in 2008. Even before the issues of oil and taxes dueled for time during the U.S. presidential election, drivers were emptying their wallets at the pump and wondering when gas prices would stop climbing higher (and sighing with relief when the price of oil dropped precipitously).

6: What is water boarding?

Like the sensations of falling that haunt our nightmares, dreams of drowning snap us awake with a shudder. But for some prisoners, there's no waking up from that unimaginably terrifying feeling of the water pulling you under. That's because water boarding is a form of torture, one that the CIA has said that it used on more than one occasion.

5: What does CERN mean for the future of the universe?

The name CERN, shorthand for the European Organization for Nuclear Research, might not ring any bells, but the name of its biggest pet project -- the Large Hadron Collider, or LHC -- probably does. Like all of us, CERN wants to know how the universe works -- how it began, what it's made of, all that good stuff. Only instead of, say, reading books, CERN scientists study the tiniest particles in the universe. And they built the most powerful particle accelerator, the LHC, to do it.

4: How easy is it to steal a nuclear bomb?

Although popular television shows such as "24" might make it look like a cakewalk, stealing an entire nuclear bomb isn't easy, even for practiced terrorists. But obtaining the parts of a nuke is a different story, and unsavory characters certainly have tried both routes.

3: Why is the Google algorithm so important?

Whether you're trawling the Internet for information about the new World of Warcraft release or for homemade remedies for halitosis, you probably punch your query into Google's waiting hands. When the search engine returns your desired results lickety-split, you might scan the first two or three pages, check out a few sites and, satisfied, call it a day. You probably don't dwell on how or why Google returned those results to you, but anyone with a Web site does.

2: Why is the cost of food rising so rapidly?

How many calories did you eat today? If you overindulged and packed in a few hundred extra calories, you may be one reason behind the prohibitively high price of food in 2008. Food prices have jumped more than 80 percent in three years, according to the World Bank, and their meteoric rise doesn't show signs of stopping, not least because of people eating excess calories. To learn what governments, global organizations and people like you and me are doing to try to solve the problem, read Why is the cost of food rising so rapidly?

1: How will the U.S. government spend the $700 billion bailout funds?

Of all the questions that have been on people's minds this year, particularly in the United States and particularly as the most financially tumultuous year in decades ends, perhaps no question was as pressing as this one -- how would the U.S. government spend the gargantuan bailout it announced in September 2008. Certainly, anxious homeowners biding their time against foreclosure wanted to know. Baby boomers sitting on depleted retirement savings wanted to know. Banks definitely, desperately wanted to know.

One major trend added

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Incredible video: water as fuel

noreply@blogger.com (BALKAN FUTURE STUDIES ASSOCIATION) — Sun, 21 Dec 2008 17:28:00 +0000

Enjoy the video on the website above. Is may sound like a joke but this technology has ALREADY been invented and demonstrated in Bulgaria !

After the downfall of the "real existing socialism", is now the end of capitalism in sight?

noreply@blogger.com (BALKAN FUTURE STUDIES ASSOCIATION) — Thu, 18 Dec 2008 08:58:00 +0000

Club of Amsterdam news and opinions
Prof. Dr. Nicolas Hardinghaus, President and CEO, Hansa Real Consultants, C.A. and speaker at our next event:

"What could we understand as values of capitalism? Profitability? Pecuniary rewards? Financial independence, even might? Associated to virtues as self determination, valour, bravery, guts?
Are these values suffering alteration in or after the financial markets crisis? Turn to greed and frivoulness?
Which will be the foreseeable consequences: Regulation instead of deregulation, public ownership instead of private ownership, supervision instead of laissez-faire. Rebirth of state intervention.
Consequences for the so called real economy.
Don't make money with money.
Is a return to the former, the "old" system ("ancient regime") thinkable?
Another Bretton Woods? Another Gold Or Commodities Standard?
After the downfall of the "real existing socialism", is now the end of capitalism in sight?
Money and Mystery, money and eschatological prophecy. Cool down or the ultimate collapse of world finance system? Outlook. "

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Top 10 predictions for global economy

noreply@blogger.com (BALKAN FUTURE STUDIES ASSOCIATION) — Thu, 18 Dec 2008 08:43:00 +0000

1. The U.S. Recession Will Be One of the Deepest—if not the Deepest— in the Postwar Period.
2. The Downturn Will Be the Worst in Europe over a Couple of Decades and the Worst in Japan Since 1998.
3. Growth in Emerging Markets Will Decelerate Dramatically.
4. The Federal Reserve and Other Central Banks Will Keep Cutting Rates.
5. More Fiscal Stimulus in the Pipeline.
6. Commodity Prices Will Remain at Depressed Levels for Much of Next Year.
7. Inflationary Fears Will Be Replaced by Concerns About Deflation.
8. Global Imbalances Will Improve Markedly.
9. The Dollar Will Remain Relatively Strong as Long as the Financial Crisis Continues.
10. The Single-Biggest Risk Facing the U.S. and World Economies Is a Timid Response to the Crisis.

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Comment: no ideas for a deep monetary reform on the horizon

Falling Fortunes, Rising Hopes and the Price of Oil

noreply@blogger.com (BALKAN FUTURE STUDIES ASSOCIATION) — Tue, 16 Dec 2008 06:22:00 +0000

December 15, 2008

By Peter Zeihan

Global Energy Prices

Oil prices have now dipped — albeit only briefly — below US$40 a barrel, a precipitous plunge from their highs of more than US$147 a barrel in July. Just as high oil prices reworked the international economic order, low oil prices are now doing the same. Such a sudden onset of low prices impacts the international system just as severely as recent record highs.

But before we dive into the short-term (that is, up to 12 months) impact of the new price environment, we must state our position in the oil price debate. We have long been perplexed about the onward and upward movement of the oil markets from 2005 to 2008. Certainly, global demand was strong, but a variety of factors such as production figures and growing inventories of crude oil seemed to argue against ever-increasing prices. Some of our friends pointed to the complex world of derivatives and futures trading, which they said had created artificial demand. That may well have been true, but the bottom line is that, based on the fundamentals, the oil numbers did not make a great deal of sense.

Things have clarified a great deal of late. We are now facing an environment in which the United States, Europe and Japan are in recession, while China is, at the very least, expecting to see its growth slow greatly. Demand for crude the world over is sliding sharply even as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) member states so far seem unable (or, in the case of Saudi Arabia, perhaps unwilling) to make the necessary deep cuts in output that might halt the price slide. The bottom line is that, while the breathtaking speed at which prices have collapsed has caught us somewhat by surprise, the direction and the depth of the plunge has not.

Prices are likely to remain low for some time. Most of the world’s storage facilities — such as the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve — are full to the brim, so large cuts are needed simply to prevent massive oversupply. Yet any OPEC production cuts — the cartel meets Dec. 17 and deep cuts are expected — will take months to have a demonstrable impact, especially in a recessionary environment. And there is the simple issue of scale. The global oil market is a beast: Total demand at present is about 86 million barrels per day. This is not a market that can turn on a dime. A firm fact that flies in the face of conventional wisdom is that oil actually falls far faster than it rises when the fundamentals are out of whack. This has happened on multiple occasions, and not that long ago.

Falls occurred both in the aftermath of the 1990-1991 Persian Gulf War and as a result of the 1997-1998 Asian financial crises that were similar in percentage terms to the present drop. Until the balance between supply and demand is restruck — something not likely until a global economic recovery is well under way — there is no reason to expect a significant price recovery. The journey, of course, is not necessarily a one-way trip. Quirks in everything from weather to shipping to Nigerian riots and Russian military movements can set prices gyrating, but the fundamentals are clearly bearish. It will most likely take several months for the core features of the new reality to change much at all.

(click image to enlarge)

Low oil prices create both winners and losers on the international scene. First, the winners’ list.

Far and away the biggest winner from drastically lower prices is the world’s largest consumer and importer of oil: the United States. The last two years of high prices have spawned a sustained American consumer effort to get by with less oil via a mix of conservation and a shift to better-mileage vehicles. Whether this purchase pattern in automobiles lasts is not at issue. The point is that it has already happened: Many Americans have already shifted to more fuel-efficient vehicles. Just as the 1990s obsession with sport utility vehicles artificially boosted American gasoline demand so long as those automobiles were on the road, so the new fleet of hybrids and smart cars will push demand in the opposite direction for a sustained period.

Overall U.S. oil consumption has plummeted by nearly 9 percent from its peak in August 2007 to November 2008, according to the U.S. Department of Energy. Combining this with the drop in prices since July translates into U.S. energy savings of approximately US$1.95 billion at a price of US$50 a barrel and US$2.1 billion at a price of US$40 a barrel. And that is daily cost savings. In recessionary times, that cash will go a long way to building confidence and stanching the recession.

Next on the list are the major European importers of crude: Germany, Italy and Spain. As a rule, European economies are less energy-intensive than the United States, but by dint of fuel mix and lack of domestic production these three major states are forced to rely on substantial amounts of imported oil. We exclude the other major European economies from this list as they are either major oil producers themselves (the United Kingdom and the Netherlands) or their economies are extremely oil efficient (France, Belgium and Sweden). Don’t get us wrong — the EU states are all quite pleased that oil prices have dialed back. Nevertheless, in terms of relative gain, Germany, Italy and Spain are the real winners. And with Europe facing a recession much deeper and likely longer than that in the United States, the Europeans need every advant age they can get.

India, far removed from Europe culturally and geographically, sports a somewhat similar economic structure in that it boasts (or suffers from, based on your perspective) an industrializing base that is highly dependent on oil imports. Broadly, the Indians are in the same basket as Spain in that they are voracious energy consumers who have seen their demand skyrocket in recent years. Between the Nov. 26 Mumbai attack, upcoming federal elections and the energy price pain from earlier in the year, the government is desperate to pass on the cost savings to the population to shore up its support.

Then there are the East Asian states of South Korea, China and Japan (listed in descending order of how much each one benefits from the price drop). All import massive amounts of crude oil, but we put them at the end of the list of winners because of their financial systems. In East Asia — and particularly in China and Japan — money is not allocated on the basis of rate of return or profitability as it is in the West. Instead, the concern is maximizing employment. It does not matter much in East Asia if one’s business plan is sound; the government will provide cheap loans so long one employs hordes of people. One side effect of this strategy is that firms can get loans for anything, including raw materials they otherwise could not afford — such as oil at US$147 a barrel.

Therefore, high oil prices just do not affect East Asia as badly as they affect the West. Just as the East Asian financial system mutes the impact of high prices, the converse is true as well. In the West, energy consumers are not shielded from high prices, so lower prices immediately translate into more purchasing power, and thus more economic activity. Not so in East Asia, where the same financial shielding that blunts the impact of high prices lessens the benefits of low prices.

The order in which we listed the three Asian giants relates to how much progress they have made in reforming their financial practices. South Korea’s financial system is much closer to the Western model than the Asian model: South Korea hurts more as prices rise, and so will be more relieved as prices fall. China is in the middle in terms of financial practices, but it is also attempting to unwind its system of energy price-fixing as oil costs drop; due to subsidies being reduced, Chinese consumers actually may not be seeing much of a change in retail prices. Finally, Japan will benefit the least because its system is already highly efficient compared to the other two, so the price impact was less in the first place. One barrel of oil consumed in Japan generates approximately US$2,610 of Japanese gross domestic product (GDP), while the comparative figures for Korea and China are US$1,270 and US$1,130 respectively.

In short, the heavily industrialized Asians still benefit, but the impact isn’t as much as one might think at first glance. In fact, the biggest benefit to these states from cheaper energy is indirect — lower prices spur consumption in the West, and then the West purchases more Asian products.

And now, the losers.

Venezuela and Iran top this list by far. Both are led by politicians who have lavished vast amounts of oil income on their populations to secure their respective political positions. But that public approval has come at its own price in terms of economic dislocation (why diversify the economy if strong oil prices bring in loads of cash?), low employment (the energy sector may be capital-intensive, but it certainly is not labor-intensive), and high inflation (high government spending has led to massive consumption and spurred rampant import of foreign goods to satiate that demand).

Of the two states, Venezuela is certainly in the worse position. By some estimates, Venezuela requires oil prices in the vicinity of US$120 a barrel to maintain the social spending to which its population has become accustomed. Iran’s number may be only somewhat lower, but President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is in the process of at least beginning to bow to economic reality. On Dec. 5, he announced massive cuts in subsidy outlays with the intent of reforging the budget based on a price of only US$30 a barrel.

It is an open question whether the Iranian government — and especially the increasingly unpopular Ahmadinejad — can survive such cuts (if they are indeed made), but at least there is a public realization of the depth of the crisis at the top level of government. In Venezuela, by contrast, the mitigation process has barely begun, and for political reasons it cannot truly be implemented until after a referendum in early 2009 on term limits that could allow Chavez to run for president indefinitely.

Next is Nigeria. In terms of seeing an increase in human misery, Nigeria should probably be at the top of the losers’ list. But the harsh reality is that Nigerians are used to corrupt government, inadequate infrastructure, spotty power supply and all-around poor conditions. Some of the perks of high energy prices undoubtedly will disappear, but none of those perks succeeded in changing Nigeria in the first place.

The real impact on Nigeria will be that the government will have drastically less money available to grease the political wheels that allow it to keep competing regional and personal interests in check. Those funds have been particularly crucial for funneling cash to the country’s oil-rich Niger Delta region, giving local bosses reason not to hire and/or arm militant groups like the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta to attack oil and natural gas sites. With Abuja having less cash, the oil regions will see a surge in extortion, kidnapping and oil bunkering (i.e., theft). We already have seen attacks ramp up against the country’s natural gas industry: Within the last few days, attacks against supply points have forced operators to take the Bonny Island liquefied natural gas export facility offline. And since Nigeria’s mil itants never really differentiate between the country’s various forms of energy export, oil disruptions are probably just around the corner.

Russia is also in the crosshairs, but not nearly to the same degree as Venezuela, Iran and Nigeria. Russia has four things going for it that the others lack. First, it exports massive amounts of natural gas and metals, giving it additional income streams. (Venezuela and Iran actually import natural gas and have no real alternative to oil income.) Second, Russia never spent its money on its population. Thus, Russians have not become used to massive government support, so there will be no sharp cuts in public spending that will be missed by the populace. Third, Russia has saved nearly every nickel it made in the past eight years, giving it cash reserves worth some US$750 billion. The financial crisis is hitting Russia hard, so at least US$200 billion of that buffer already has been spent, but Russia still remains in a far better position than m ost oil exporters. Fourth and last, the Russians can rely on Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin to (somewhat forcefully) keep the books firmly in balance. At his insistence, the government is in the process of refabricating its three-year budget on the basis of oil prices of below US$35 a barrel, down from the original estimate of US$95.

At the end of the losers’ list we have two states that most people would not think of: Mexico and Canada. Both have other sources of economic activity. Canada is a modern service-based economy with a heavy presence of many commodity industries, while Mexico has become a major manufacturing hub. But both are major oil exporters, and have been leading suppliers to the American economy for decades. So both are exposed, but their concerns are more about unforeseen complications rather than the “simple” quantitative impact of lower prices.

Mexico has purchased derivatives contracts that, in essence, insure the price of all its oil exports for 2009. So should prices remain low, Mexico’s actual income will be unchanged. We only include Mexico on the list of losers, therefore, because it’s quite rare in geopolitics that such planning actually works out as planned. Hurricanes and strikes happen. (Mexico also faces the problem of insufficient funds, expertise and technology to counter rapidly declining output, something that will leave it with a lack of oil to sell in the first place — but that is an issue more for 2012 than 2009.)

As for Canada, most of the oil it produces comes from Alberta province, the seat of power of the ruling Conservative Party. Right now, the Canadian government is wobbling like a slowing top. Seeing the Conservatives’ power base take a massive economic hit due to oil prices is not the sort of complication the government needs right now. In the longer term, Alberta recently increased taxes on oil sands projects. Oil sands extraction is among the more capital-intensive and technologically challenging sorts of oil production currently possible. Combine the tax changes with the nature of the subindustry and the recent price drops and there is likely to be precious little investment interest in oil dur ing — at a minimum — 2009.

Most readers will take note of the countries we have chosen not to include on the list of vulnerable states. These include the bulk of the OPEC states — specifically Angola, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Libya. All of these states count oil as their only meaningful export (except the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, which also export natural gas), so why do we feel such countries are not in the danger zone?

For its part, Angola only became a major producer recently. Nearly all of Angolan oil output is from offshore projects controlled by foreigners — shutting in such production is a very tricky affair for a country that is utterly reliant on foreign technology to operate its only meaningful industry. But the primary reason Angola is not feeling the heat is that most of its income has not been spent but instead has been stashed away due to a lack of the necessary physical and personnel infrastructure needed to leverage the income.

Iraq is in a somewhat similar position as far as finances are concerned. While Iraq has been producing crude for decades, its current government is only a few years old, and its institutions simply cannot allocate the monies involved. Despite massive outlays by both Iraq and Angola, their respective governments simply lack the capacity to spend, and so have stored up cash accounts worth US$26 billion and US$54 billion respectively.

The rest of the Arab oil producers warrant a much simpler explanation: They’ve been fiscally conservative. While all have shared the wealth with their somewhat restive populations, none of them has repeated the mistakes of the 1970s, when they overspent on gaudy buildings and overcommitted themselves to expensive social programs. All have been saving vast amounts of cash, with the Saudis alone probably having more than US$1 trillion socked away. Tiny Kuwait officially has a wealth fund worth more than US$250 billion.

So while none of the Arab oil states are particularly thrilled with the direction — and in particular the speed — oil prices have gone, none of these governments faces a mortal danger at this time. What they are now missing is the ability to make a substantial impact on the world around them. At oil’s height the Gulf Arab oil producers were taking in US$2 billion a day in revenues — far more cash than they could ever hope to metabolize themselves. Bribes are powerful tools of foreign policy, and their income allowed them — particularly Saudi Arabia — to wield outsized influence in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and even in Beijing, London and Washington. So while none of these states faces a meltdown from falling prices, there are certainly some hangovers in store for them. It is jus t that they are more political than economic in nature, at least for now.

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The Molecular Preparation of Revolution

noreply@blogger.com (BALKAN FUTURE STUDIES ASSOCIATION) — Mon, 15 Dec 2008 08:31:00 +0000

Do you think this is out of zinc with today's world?
The real spectre that terrorizes the bourgeoisie is the fear of the reappearance of a proletariat that picks up the class struggle. It is the spectre of what Trotsky described as «the molecular preparation of revolution», dialectically related to the political and military prolongation of the crisis. We stress: a dialectic tie, that is neither automatic nor mechanical. It is capitalism itself; in point of fact, that brings on the economic struggles. To connect the latter with the revolutionary political struggle needed for the violent overthrow of capitalism requires the guiding ability of the Party and the reawakening of the class struggle. The fundamental precondition for the proletariat to act as a class for itself is the encounter of the class with the Party.

It is in fact only with the return to the terrain of an intransigent struggle for its material living and working conditions that the proletariat will be able to disencumber itself of the illusions that have tied it to its own national bourgeoisie and to the politics of imperialism, that it will be able to divest itself of the ideology of peaceful class-coexistence, and see through the siren's calls recruiting it to the ranks for a new imperialist war, there to fight for interests not its own.

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Economic crisis and the science of Marxism

noreply@blogger.com (BALKAN FUTURE STUDIES ASSOCIATION) — Mon, 15 Dec 2008 08:25:00 +0000

A sinister leftist prediction...
Today all views matter

In the course of a recent appearance before the American congress, the financier George Soros gave a cry of alarm: the capitalistic system is headed toward «disintegration» (1). A month later, first Henry Kissinger echoed this view, and then that other «intellectual» of domestic Italian finances, Giacomo De Benedetti, followed suit with a long article in which he prognosticated «the arrival of a very grave global crisis». (2)

Despite the virulent persistence of the economic crisis and the seesawing of the rates of exchange and stock indices on all the markets, bourgeois experts and theoreticians plod along in stunning naked impotence, mouthing ever more evanescent explanations - illusions destined to fade one after the other.

Gone is the dream that came to the fore after 1989 of a «New World Order» based on peaceful economic competition, the IMF, the World Bank, and the WTO, all under the watchful eye of the imperial American eagle. After the frenzied earlier wave of «financial deregulation», the screw has turned and, on a world-wide scale, the faith in deregulation has fallen in complete disrepute - in the US, Japan, and elsewhere -in the face of a need for massive, new state intervention, if the world financial order is to be saved from the crisis that has overtaken banks and institutions of the highest degree: the American Long Term Capital Management, the Japanese Long Term Credit Bank, and China's Guandong International Trust and Investment Corporation.

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Find other crisis estimates and predictions

China strives for economic soft landing next year amid global financial crisis

noreply@blogger.com (BALKAN FUTURE STUDIES ASSOCIATION) — Fri, 12 Dec 2008 17:51:00 +0000

BEIJING, Dec. 11 (Xinhua) -- After five years of double-digit economic growth, China on Wednesday set the tune of carrying out a "soft landing" to begin a new growth cycle, as Chinese policy makers gathered at the Central Economic Work Conference to tackle mounting difficulties in sustaining growth amid global financial tsunami.

The central authorities pledged to strive for continued economic growth next year through domestic demand expansion and economic restructuring.

"Although the work meeting did not give a specific growth target for next year, the leadership made clear its resolution to sustain the growth at a relative fast rate and reiterated the macro-control policies to secure the goal," said Zhuang Jian, senior economist with the Asian Development Bank (ADB).

He said China's economy may need two and three years for adjustment after the fast growth cycle. He believed the economy could achieve an 8 percent growth rate next year.

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HOW TO SURVIVE THE DEPRESSION

7 Reasons to Start Your Digital Products Business Online Today

noreply@blogger.com (BALKAN FUTURE STUDIES ASSOCIATION) — Wed, 10 Dec 2008 14:29:00 +0000

Today the Internet has opened the doors to seamless, online financial transactions. It is therefore easy to purchase and sell and make payments online. If you are trying to sell digital products online like software, ebooks etc. then this is a profitable business that has lots of potential. Why?? It’s because digital products don’t have any costs – you can sell one copy or you can sell one hundred of copies of your product. The costs will remain the same. Digital products are a great way for many people to earn money online.

Here are the top 7 reasons why starting a digital products business is so great and why you should do this today:

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Inflation: 'Destroying governments since 1789'

noreply@blogger.com (BALKAN FUTURE STUDIES ASSOCIATION) — Tue, 09 Dec 2008 17:58:00 +0000

One of the best books about inflation is The Great Wave, by David Hackett Fischer. I read it with admiration when it was first published in 1996 and I have been re-reading it now inflation is back.I have experienced only too much of the recent history of inflation over the past 60 years.For most of that time I've been reporting on it as a financial journalist. I share Fischer's belief that the best way to study inflation is to study its history. Theoretical economic models do not tell the whole story.

Karl Marx analysed the French Revolution, primarily in terms of class conflict. Yet inflation was a potent revolutionary influence. As Fischer writes: 'From 1789-99 every twist and turn of fortune in the French Revolution was closely tied to movement of prices.'

The French Revolution is usually thought to have begun on July 14, 1789, the day the Paris mob stormed the Bastille. Fischer provides a graph that shows July 14 was also the day on which bread prices peaked in Paris.

Inflation destroyed King Louis XVI, the constitutional monarchy, the Jacobin dictatorship and the Directorate. It brought Napoleon to power, just as the German inflation of the Twenties helped to bring Hitler to power in 1933.

In Britain today the extraordinary swing against Gordon Brown's Government has happened as the price of energy and food are rising and the price of houses falling.

There are parallels between the present inflationary situation and the great inflation that started in the mid-Sixties and ended in the mid-Nineties.

In the Sixties, America was pouring troops and money into Vietnam. When President John F. Kennedy was assassinated, there were only a few thousand Americans in Vietnam. By the time President Lyndon B. Johnson retired in January 1969, there were about 500,000.

President Johnson is praised for his expansion of the American services. Yet he expanded social expenditure and fought a war in South-East Asia without raising taxes to pay for them.

In the past seven years, President George W. Bush has fought wars in Iraq and Afghanistan while cutting taxes. Both wartime presidents have financed their wars by borrowing.

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