Goonerboy

Seven Games that will Define Arsenal's Season

2012-02-09T22:32:00.000-05:00

It's only mid-February but we're already perilously close to what The Flight of the Concords would call 'Business Time'. By that, I don't mean Arsenal football club are going to wine and dine our opponents, and then take them back to the Emirates for some 'business' - I apologise if this is getting a little weird - I mean that we're coming up to the real make-or-break period of the season.

Why? Well, try this fixture-list on for size:

* Sunderland (away) - Sat-11/2
* AC Milan (away) - Weds-15/2
* Sunderland (away - FA Cup) - Sat -18/2
* Spurs (home) - Sun - 2/26
* Liverpool (away) - Sat -3/3
* AC Milan (home) - Tues - 6/3
* Newcastle (home) - Mon 12/3

We can all try to be positive, confident and believe in the team, but let's face it: that fixture list is ridiculous.

We have to travel all the way up to Sunderland, to Milan then back to Sunderland in the space of a week, like some form of deluded Geordie fashion-queen. Three away games in a row is difficult in any set of circumstances, but when they involve extensive travel like this, it becomes even harder. The worst case, and unfortunately entirely plausible situation, is that we are going to lose all three of these games. Why? Well, Arsene will put our strongest possible team out against Milan, so we are going to have to rest players either before or after the trip to Italy. Given we've just had a week off, I think we'll probably play a strong XI on Saturday, a strong XI in Milan, and then try to rotate for the FA Cup. In a nightmare scenario, we could lose to an in-form Sunderland, lose again to a Zlatan-inspired Milan, and then see an under-strength, demoralised team lose once again in the FA Cup.

However, I feel that we have to prioritise our trophies in this manner, even if things don't turn out for the best. For me, this is our proper order of priorities, even if it's a little sad. Realistically, the FA Cup is our best chance of a trophy this season, yet we have to prioritise the league in order that we can continue to re-build in the next transfer window, and I think it's important to the club's morale that we go out to Italy and get some form of result.

An ideal scenario would be to eek out a win in the league, get a score-draw in Milan, then eek out another win in Sunderland. If we were to win at least two of these three games, it will keep our season alive, and massively boost morale. To win all three is, I feel, just a little too much to ask.

Then, after a week's breather, we face Spurs, Liverpool, Milan and Newcastle. These teams currently lie 3rd, 7th, 2nd and 5th in England and Italy. However, three of these four games are at home, which will hopefully make a big difference, especially given the fact we have a nice break between the second leg against Milan and Newcastle.

My prediction? Well, actually, I feel quite confident. Despite the distinctly uneven season we've had so far, to put it charitably, we've hung in there. We're only a few points off the top four in the league, and we have two difficult, but winnable games, in the FA Cup and Europe. The big win against Blackburn has hopefully boosted confident, and key players, like Sagna, are coming back into the team. If other players like Gervinho, Gibbs, Diaby and, even Santos can come back into the squad at some point during this run, we will be difficult to beat.

For now, let's concentrate on our first two opponents - Sunderland and Milan. Two rather different cities, one might say, but two clubs who are both in pretty decent form.

Sunderland have had a notable resurgence under Martin O'Neill's stewardship. There is a stat out there somewhere which says they have the best record in the league since he took over as manager. While they are missing players such as Cattermole, they also have a dangerously in-form players such as Stephane Sessegnon (6 goals, 7 assists this season) and ex-Arsenal Seb Larrson in the team. We just about edged them out when we played at the Grove in October, but games between the two teams are usually close (there have only been only 8 goals in the last 6 games between us) and going up there twice in a week will be a tall order.

Milan, currently lie second in the league, but should be missing a few key players, such as Boateng and Pato. However, after Ibrahimovic's sending off against Juve, he will be fully rested and probably relatively focused (as far as Zlatan ever can be) by the time he faces us. Aside from the red-mist, he has been in superb form for Milan this year with 15 goals, 4 assists, and an average of 2.9 key passes per game. I remember his two goals against us during his ill-fated season with Barca, and he has the ability to do that to us again if our defence drops concentration for a moment.

All that said, I'm only going to predict one game at a time. So, Arsenal 1 Sunderland 0 on Saturday. I think the 120 minutes Sunderland played this week will be a factor, and we will slightly edge them out, setting us up nicely for the game in Italy.

Ten thoughts on the match, as usual, after the game. Till then, Up the Arsenal.

The Top Creative Arsenal Players since 2007 - Fabregas and who else?

2012-02-07T23:11:00.003-05:00

After my piece in defence of Aaron Ramsey on Sunday, it seemed only fitting that whoscored.com would publish this piece today, which looks at the Premier League's most creative players since 2007.

It divides the number of minutes played by the chances that a player created from open play, producing a mixture of expected and surprising results. Only those players with over 1,500 minutes (approx 17 matches) were included. The stats come from Opta, so I would say they are pretty reliable.

We all knew he was special, but the fact Cesc sits at the top of this pile is unsurprising. He officially created goal-scoring chances at a faster rate than any other player in the Premier League during his time at Arsenal after 2007 - the 266 goal-scoring chances he produced equate to producing a chance every 33 minutes and 14 seconds. Basically, he put someone in a goalscoring position almost three times every 90 minutes, which is pretty staggering.

Just behind Fabregas are two other Spanish players currently lighting up the Premier League - David Silva and Juan Mata. Indeed, that Mata has managed to produce a chance every 36 minutes 46 seconds emphasizes just how quickly he has adapted to the Premier League, and probably also emphasizes just how poor Chelsea's forwards have been this season - not just Torres, but the likes of Anelka and Drogba as well. I was gutted that we missed out on Mata at the time, and the stats seem to confirm that he was a virtual ready-made replacement for Cesc. Too bad Chelsea parked the proverbial dump truck of money on Mata's lawn.

But it's the person in ninth-place which is perhaps most interesting to this piece, especially in light of my recent article. Yes, Aaron Ramsey stands ninth in the list of players who have created the most chances in the Premier League since August 2007. He creates a goalscoring chance every 43 minutes and 3 seconds. This is a more impressive record than the likes of Nani, Sergio Aguero, Luis Suarez, Wayne Rooney and Ryan Giggs, to name just those included in the top-twenty. It's also higher than a person that many would like to see i the team above Ramsey - Tomas Rosicky. Rosicky's record is much more impressive than I thought, with a chance created every 45 minutes and 34 seconds. Again, this leads me to the conclusion that Rosicky is a player good enough to rotate with Aaron, but that Ramsey is ultimately the better player, despite the fact he is almost ten years younger than Aaron.

This would seem to confirm the central argument to my recent article - Aaron creates chances very effectively (if not as effectively as Cesc, yet) but he is hampered by a lack of players in the current side who stick the ball in the back of the net. Maybe with the rise of the Ox, Ramsey will finally get the assists to back up his creative play, and prove some of the doubters wrong.

If anything, perhaps the player who should be in the team more is Yossi Benayoun, who stands eleventh in the list. Despite being one of the thinnest players I've ever seen in top-flight football (seriously, he looks like he could break into a million pieces at any moment) Yossi is undoubtedly an underrated player, and I don't think we've really got too much out of him since he's been at the club. We're coming up to a point where we need to start rotating players, and you have to wonder whether Arsene will give him a real go or not. If not, then I suppose we'll always have this:

Two other ex-Arsenal players are on the list which are worthy of note. The first is Alex Hleb, who actually stands one place above Ramsey in eighth. I was always a big fan of Hleb, and, for moments in the 2007/8 season, he looked like he might be the world-class attacking force which could get us the league. However, I have never seen a player so adverse to shooting as old Alex, and maybe the reason he is so high on this list is the fact he always laid the ball off, rather than have a go himself. While he never fitted in at Barcelona, the fact they bought him should indicate that he was a better player than many gave him credit for at the time.

Lastly, there is a player who is one of the great tragic stories of recent football: Eduardo. The fact that he is in the top twenty for chances created, not scored, highlights the all-round creative game that Eddie had during his time at the club. When you combine this with some of the most clinical, ice-cold finishing I've ever seen in an Arsenal shirt, you have yourself a world-class attacking player. He was never the same after his terrible injury, but his ability in front of goal was simply magnificent in the first-half of the 2007/8 season. Given the fact he could also create, I maintain that the club should not have let him go when we did. Ask yourself - would you rather have Eduardo on the bench, or Chamakh and Park? Not even worth asking. And so I'll leave you with an emotional video which showed the scope of his talent. He may only have been here for a few years, but the courage he showed in returning from injury, as much as his deadliness in front of goal, means I will always consider him an Arsenal legend. Being a great footballer is sometimes about more than just kicking a ball:

In Defence of Aaron Ramsey: a Statistical Analysis

2012-02-05T17:10:00.001-05:00

It seems odd to me, but over the last few weeks I've seen Aaron Ramsey come in for a lot of criticism, especially on the angst-spewing machine that is Twitter. The main bone of contention seems to be that he has become an automatic first XI pick for Arsene this year, despite the fact that he has not contributed enough to the team. In particular, there is an idea that he often goes missing in games, yet still plays the 90 minutes, and gets picked again for the next game despite having contributed little.

Personally, I'm of the view that Aaron has been excellent this season, and I believe the statistics are there to back-up this argument. Yet, regardless of stats, what people need to remember is that this is, essentially, Aaron's first season as a member of Arsenal's starting XI. He had only just forced his way into the team when the cavemen broke his leg, and he had only just begun to work his way back into the team last year after a loan to Nottingham Forest. Moreover, he's had to play in a radically altered Arsenal midfield. Fabregas and Nasri are no more, and Wilshere will probably miss around 90% of these season's games. When you add in the 8-2 Old Trafford trauma, you can see just how turbulent his career at Arsenal has been thus far, to say the least. So, my first point would be - give the kid a break. He's still a relative newbie to the demands of top-level football, and has been subjected to a steep learning-curve this season.

But when you actually break down his performances, you'll see that he has played pretty well this year. Firstly, he has 4 assists in the league, the fifth-highest in the team. This number is pretty decent in itself, but I believe it would be much higher if we had more players who could score regularly within the team.

This can be seen through his key passes statistic - i.e., passes which leads to an attempt at goal without scoring. Aaron has 47 key passes in the premier league this season - an average of 2.1 per game. At Arsenal, only Robin van Persie bests him in this area with 55 key passes at an average of 2.3 per game. Arteta has the same average of 2.1, but has only 40 key passes in total as he has played less games. To put that in a wider context, Aaron is 13th in the list of players who make the most key passes per game in the Premier league this season. He produces more key passes than players such as Suarez, Giggs, Rooney, Dempsey, Lampard and Yaya Toure (to name a few). That the players ahead of Ramsey include Mata, Silva, Nani, and Modric shows the impressive company that Aaron is very close to emulating in terms of the creation of goal-scoring chances in the league. Indeed, if we had more than one consistent goal-scorer in the team, I am certain that Aaron would be near double-figures for assists this year already. (On a related note, it also hammers home how galling it was that we missed out on Mata, who has had a superb first season in England.)

Aaron also passes the ball extremely well. He is second only to Arteta in terms of average number of passes attempted per game, and, out of our midfielders, he is also second only to Arteta in terms of average pass completion rate per game. Despite playing a more offensive role, he therefore makes and completes a higher amount of passes than Song, who appears to attempt a higher amount of riskier through-balls which often don't come off. (Interestingly, Mertesacker has the overall second-highest pass completion rate out of regularly appearing players, which says a lot about the oft-overlooked calming roll that Per plays in our defence.)

In terms of defensive abilities, Aaron completes an average of 2 tackles per game - lower than Song (2.9) and Arteta (2.4), but higher than the likes of Vermaelen (1.9), Djourou (1.6), and Rosicky (1.1). Indeed, it's interesting to note that Aaron completes almost twice as many tackles on average per game than Rosicky, despite the impression that many hold of Rosicky as a player who's always leaping around the pitch winning back the ball. Aaron not only tackles more than Rosicky, he has a higher average number of interceptions per game. For all you Rosicky fans out there, Ramsey also completes a higher percentage of passes, and creates more goal-scoring opportunities than Tomas. Rosicky is a useful option for rotation, but there is no question that Ramsey should be starting ahead of Rosicky at the moment, at least in the league.

Where Aaron's performances have been a little disappointing is in Europe, where his pass completion rate falls to about 75% compared to 87% in the league; where he is only 7th in terms of key passes per game; and where he has 0 assists, although his last-minute winner in Marseille means he is one of only 5 players to score for us in Europe this year. Particularly as he is a British player, it does appear that Aaron has struggled a little to adapt his game to the differing demands of Champions League football.

Despite his exploits on the French Riviera, goal scoring has been a general weakness for Aaron this season. He has only 1 goal in the league, despite having the 3rd highest number of shots per game. When he first arrived at the club, what I liked about Aaron was his directness, and the fact he seemed a bit more willing to shoot than the likes of Cesc and Nasri. One league goal is a poor return for someone who United saw as a potential replacement for Paul Scholes.

Another criticism that could be levelled at him is that his concentration levels are not always as high as they should be. While they don't give the stats to back-up the assertion, whoscored.com lists Ramsey's concentration as 'very weak', calculated by own goals and errors that he has made which have led to opponent's shooting and scoring. How much this has been skewed by his appearance in the Old Trafford bloodbath, or his own goal as our ten-men desperately tried to keep Liverpool out in the 2-0 defeat in August, I'm not sure. But, watching him, I think Aaron does turn off too frequently, which is why I don't think he's quite mentally ready to start week-in, week-out at the moment. While I don't rate him as highly as I rate Aaron, I do think that Rosicky can step into the fray on occasion to give Ramsey a mental breather, as he did to reasonable effect yesterday.

So, what is the overall picture that I'm trying to paint? It's of a player who passes the ball extremely well, and consistently creates goalscoring chances. It's of someone who would have more assists this season were he surrounded by a higher number of players who could finish their chances. It's also of someone who, despite predominantly being an attacking midfielder, does his bit defensively, with a good number of tackles and interceptions. However, what's also clear is that Aaron struggles slightly in the Champions League, that he is as guilty as anyone of the slack finishing which has generally surrounded the team this year (this weekend's result notwithstanding), and that he sometimes lacks concentration.

This, for me, is a classic glass half-empty/full situation. For someone playing their first full year of premier league football, his passing and general attacking threat is clearly apparent, as is his determination to work hard to win the ball back. I also think that, given time, he will start to contribute a higher number of goals to the team than he does at present. However, he has not yet reached the heights of the player he is effectively replacing, Fabregas, who even in an injury-hit campaign last year, still bagged 11 assists and 2.9 key passes per game.

I say, give him time. For me, his stats this season show that he is still developing as a player, but that he is not as far as everyone thinks from being the top, attacking midfielder that we all want him to become. Lastly, perhaps if Wilshere had been fit this year, people would see Aaron in a bit more of a positive light. My great hope for the future is to see a midfield featuring both Ramsey and Wilshere playing together regularly. That, I think, is the basis of a team that could lead us to trophies.

I'd 7-1 to be a Blackburn fan? Ten Thoughts on Arsenal vs. Blackburn

2012-02-04T17:12:00.002-05:00

I'd 7-1 to be a Blackburn fan? No, it doesn't quite work, does it. One day we'll get to the promised land of an 8 goal victory, and all the wonderful pun-based jokes this allows. For today, I think 7 will do. My thoughts as follows:

* We started brightly, and scored after only 2 minutes. It was a lovely team goal with passing across the midfield, leading to link-up play between Coquelin and Walcott, who supplied the assist for Robin. We don't score enough early goals as a rule, although they can sometimes be a bit of a hindrance to a team such as ours, which has such fragile confidence. We can sometimes panic if we don't score another relatively quickly after our first - memories of Wolves at home during December came to mind, or our narrow win over Swansea in September.

* So, despite being on top for most of the opening sections of play, it didn't really come as too great a surprise to me when we conceded. We haven't become confident enough as a team to merely cruise through to the end of the game when we've taken a lead. Indeed, it's worth remembering that we threw our lead away in several games in late December and January. As for the goal itself, if I was being hyper-critical, it's another free-kick that SZCZ has let in this year. Possibly a worrying aspect of his game - or possibly just bad luck to have faced several superb free-kicks this year.

* Yet, importantly, we didn't let our heads drop. Song played a superb through ball to Theo who squared to RvP who was, yet again, in the right place at the right time. Then, RvP set up the Ox for our third. I encourage you to go to Arsenalist and watch our 3rd goal again. RvP's pass was one of the best I've seen in a long time. It completely took our 3 Blackburn players. The Ox's finish was equally superb. He didn't panic, he took a touch, pushed it past the keeper and rolled it in.

* The reason why I've focused on the last two goals is this - we were already winning when Givet made his ill-advised lunge and was sent off. We had already made the comeback and we were in control of the game. There will be a lot of negative Gooners out there who'll say we only hammered Blackburn today because of the sending off. Well, 1) it was a justifiable red-card, so we weren't exactly lucky on that count (indeed, Givet even apologized to Arsene on the way off), and 2) the sending off merely ensured that our victory was to be a rout. I'm confident we would have hammered Blackburn even if they had 11 men for 90 minutes, because we were comfortably beating them at the moment of the sending off.

* Part of the reason I'm confident of this is two players - the Ox and RvP. Robin scored a hat-trick which showed what an all-round goal-scorer he's become. His first two looked easy, but only because he read the game so well, and positioned himself so adroitly for the tap-in. Great goalscorers may tap-ins look much easier than they actually are. Chamakh probably would have been on the other side of the area. As for the Ox - I admit it, I am more and more excited every time I see him play. For me, he has the most potential of any young player I've seen since Fabregas. Indeed, and perhaps because of his range of passing, his goal-scoring prowess, and his general attacking threat, he actually reminds me a lot of a young Wayne Rooney. This kid is going to be massive, absolutely massive. We need to hold onto him.

* Yet while those two got the goals, the strong performance of Arteta and Song were also vital to our victory. Song for example, completed 62 of 70 passes today,compared to 53 out of 68 against Bolton. Moreover, as this chalkboard shows, more of his passes today were forward-looking and penetrative, compared to the largely sideways passes he made against Bolton. Indeed, it was his 'pre-assist' that was the vital part of our second goal. Arteta also increased his pass completion by from 87% to 94% today, and completed all 14 of his long-balls, compared to only 7 out of 9 against Bolton. In short, he passed the ball a lot better today, helping us control possession. Coming up with a great goal also helped - this was his third league game against Blackburn this year, and he's scored in all three! I wonder how many other players have achieved this feat.

* Alternatively, I would say that Rosicky coming in for Aaron Ramsey didn't make too big of a difference, especially if we only compare the last two matches. Despite playing for ten more minutes today than Ramsey did against Bolton, Rosicky only attempted one more pass, and actually completed a lower amount of passes, both numerically and proportionally. Ramsey attempted and succesfully made more tackles. The only statistic that Rosicky bested him on was interceptions. See the numbers as follows: Ramsey (v Bolton) vs. Rosicky (v Blackburn): Passes 58-59; successful passes: 49 vs. 47. Tackles attempted: 9 vs. 4. Succ Tackles: 3 vs. 0. Intereceptions 0 vs. 1. Key pass: 1 each, and 0 through balls for either. And as this chalkboard shows, Aaron's passsing was much more adventurous against Bolton. Having looked through the rest of Aaron's stats, I would say he has come in for a lot of undue criticism this season - something I'll expand on later this week. But, at least it shows that Rosicky can be relied upon when it comes to rotation. Even if he's not physically tired, a week out of the firing line for Ramsey will surely do him the world of good.

* As for Theo - anyone who gets three assists has had a good game. If he can produce performances of this calibre on a more consistent basis, I will re-find my faith in him, but I still think he has a propensity to run with his head down, and waste potential goal-scoring opportunities. 7 assists this season can't be argued with, however.

* If the last few weeks have all been about the emergence of the Ox, spare a though for Coquelin. This has been his first season as a member of the first-team squad and he has, by and large, produced the goods. He grabbed an assist today and generally made a nuisance of himself bombing up and down the flank. He has proved himself to be versatile, and has a great attitude. Unlike Flamini, he has said that he will play wherever the manger wants him to on the pitch. I predict that he will become a big part of the squad in years to come, even if he struggles to impose himself as a member of the starting XI in the short-term.

* Paul Robinson has now conceded 60 goals against Arsenal during his career. That is quite funny. Looking back, Arsene was probably right to not sign him up in 2004.

* PARK-WATCH: on the bench, didn't come on. At the time, I was flabbergasted by this. If Park couldn't get onto the pitch during the last half-hour of this game, precisely when is he ever going to get on? Arsene said after the game that today will be the last time Thierry plays at home during his loan, so bringing him on makes more sense in retrospect. Still, Park's premier league match-minutes during this campaign currently remains at 10. And it still seems odd to me that RvP played the full 90 minutes of a game that was basically dead for the last 40. Why risk it? And if Arsene isn't going to play Park, why did he not try and get another attacker during the window?

* Finally, while most people on the internet today seemed happy, there were, amazingly, still a few who were not. The blog 'She Wore a Yellow Ribbon' posted this on their Facebook page about half-an-hour ago.

I'm going to be clear on this - if you can't just sit back and enjoy watching your team beat another team 7-1, then I don't think football is why you are unhappy. For all my attempts at analysis in this column, I'm gonna say straight out - the match today was ace. Yes, it was only Blackburn; yes, it was only Steve Kean's Blackburn; yes, they had a player sent off. But, so what. Today the Arsenal scored 7 goals in 90 minutes. If you are an Arsenal fan, bloody well enjoy it.

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Sleepwalking Towards the Europa League: 10 thoughts on Bolton 0 Arsenal 0

2012-02-02T10:20:00.003-05:00

Given that Sam Allardyce supposedly had the hex over us while he was in charge at Bolton, it was interesting to find out that we've actually won 9 out of our last ten games against Bolton in the league. Until today, our last failure to beat Bolton was the rather galling 2-1 defeat last year, when Nasri choked, and we failed to defend our set-pieces. My thoughts on yesterday's game as follows:

* After 3 defeats in a row in the league, this was always going to be a tense match, and it was vital that we started well. And we did, actually. We should have gone in ahead at half-time, but we spurned a number of chances. Had we managed to get one goal, I think we would have got more, but we wasted our opportunities when Bolton looked a little stretched.

* We were 2 players away from what is probably our strongest side. Gervinho in for the Ox/Walcott and Santos/Gibbs in for one of Mertesacker/TV/LK and you have our strongest XI, in my opinion. Yet the XI we had out yesterday looked like a team which hadn't really played together a lot this year. The problem with constant injuries is they prevent any form of relationships building up between players in the side, and that was very evident yesterday.

* Still, it was good to have Arteta and Sagna back. Sagna was rock solid. We have missed him hugely - he is probably our best defender, and he can also whip the ball in from the flanks very well. Indeed, we should have scored when he crossed for van Persie in the second half, who hit the post, when on another day he would have scored. Arteta maybe slows our play a little, but he gives us a solidity in midfield that we sorely lack without him. Put simply, we play better with him in the side.

* On another day, one of van Persie's attempts would have gone in and we would have won. In particular, his chip was ballon d'or quality, and deserved a goal. Sometimes, games, and even whole league seasons, rest on such margins.

* If you can forgive RvP for missing an outrageous chip from outside of the area, it's harder to forgive Walcott for some of his misses and his overall performance . When you're one-on-one with the keeper, as he was, you simply have to score if you want to be considered a world-class player. It was a catastrophic miss from a player who simply isn't very good. His abysmal sliced shot in the second half confirmed his shooting prowess. Theo isn't terrible - he has a clear role to play as an impact sub, given his speed and his occasional ability to finish. But it has become increasingly painful to watch him his miscontrols, mishits, and failed finishes this season, even with all the assists he's given to van Persie.

* Walcott's limitations as a player have become acutely apparent due to the appearance of the Ox, who is on another level to Theo. Chamberlain's ability to pick a pass, as he did for Theo in the first half, is superb, and his scorcher from outside the area in the second half deserved a goal. He has been a bright spot in an otherwise dark start to the new year.

* PARK-WATCH: on the bench, didn't come on. With every passing day, Park's continued presence at the club, and his transfer fee, become more and more baffling. He's not alone though - why, exactly, did we loan Benayoun, if not for occasions such as yesterday? These are wages and fees that we have pissed away - something which is particularly unacceptable given the season ticket rise last summer.

* SZCZ looked oddly nervous tonight. Even his Cruyff-turns in the area didn't come off. The last thing we need at such a crucial stage in the season if for our most confident player to suddenly lose it.

* Ultimately, a draw was the right result. We had some good chances, but didn't take them. Bolton had a few decent chances as well, and they didn't take them. And thus it finished goalless. Bolton could have had a penalty, but then maybe Mark Davies shouldn't have dived in the first half.

* A draw in isolation isn't a disaster, but fourth place looks further away than ever at the moment. And when added into the rest of our recent form, our lack of activity in the January transfer window is, frankly, absurd. In my last article, I wrote about how Arsenal appear to be engaged in long-term thinking in the transfer-market, refusing to pay big fees until the current transfer bubble bursts. But even if they are, players moved during the last window who are better than those we have, and who we can, surely, afford. Bobby Zamora, for example. Zamora won't set the world on fire, but he has proven Premier League ability, is better than Chamakh and Park, and was available for £4m. Who did we get instead? An over-the-hill hero - and I say that as someone who loves Thierry - and a random kid who's played one match for Dortmund and who has already had one serious injury in his short career. Keisuke Honda was on the verge of a 14m euro move to Lazio, until the Roman club couldn't find a way to structure the fee. We could have afforded that - why weren't we in for him? He has proven quality which Eisfeld does not, at the moment, possess. I simply worry that the club's current obsession with value has gone too far. That we're so obsessed with our long-term transfer strategy, that we've almost forgotten about the short-term. And if you don't pay attention to the short-term, the long-term becomes irrelevant. Arsene will undoubtedly tell us to judge him in the summer, and I worry that many will. I also worry that he is taking too much flak for a club without a firm direction at a boardroom level. Maybe Stan should take a break from buying new sports teams, and concentrate on the ones he already owns.

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Gazidis Explains Arsenal's Transfer Policy - 'The Big Short'

2012-01-30T20:02:00.000-05:00

Thank you to Arseblogger and his minions for posting this on Arseblog news today: a transcript of an interview that Ivan Gazidis gave with Fox Soccer Channel yesterday. (Edit - watch a video of the interview here.)

I watched the interview, and attempted to live-tweet it, because I found what Ivan said revealing. If I was going to sum-up his comments, I would use a term that Michael Lewis (of 'Moneyball' fame) recently employed in his book about the small group of people who correctly predicted the collapse of the Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) market in 2008: 'The Big Short'.

The collapse of the MBS market in 2008 was a classic example of the deflation of a massive financial bubble. Certain institutions - most notably AIG, Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns - essentially bet that the MBS market would continue to expand almost indefinitely. AIG in particular not only bought up tons of these securities, they even provided a kind of insurance to others in case certain MBS became worthless (the famous Credit Default Swaps).

However, a small number of investors saw the MBS boom for what it was - a house built on sand, or, more precisely, a house built on the idea that poor home owners would be able to pay back their sub-prime mortgages in the long-term. These investors bought up a variety of instruments that would pay out in the event that massive defaults started to occur in the MBS market. Needless to say, they became very rich when others hit the wall in 2008. Lewis called this the 'big short' - i.e., these investors 'shorted' (or bet against) the MBS market on a huge scale, and eventually made out like bandits.

What relevance does this have to Arsenal's transfer strategy you might ask? Well, from Ivan's comments, it appears that the club is essentially betting against the current trends in the transfer market continuing in the long-term - they are 'shorting' the market, in a way.

Ivan began the interview by saying something which I've long held to be true - I don't know why there is so much speculation about the state of Arsenal's finances. We are a public company that has to produce public accounts. As he put it:

You know, it’s interesting – there seems to be some mystery about this, but we’re about the least mysterious club in the world, we’re a public company. We publish our accounts. Anybody can have a look at them, they’re publicly available, you can look at them, and you can pretty much work out what our monetary situation is.

Anyone with any modicum of financial training can peruse our reports and come to a pretty certain conclusion on the state of the club's finances - as 'angryofislington' recently did. Namely - we have money, and enough money to buy exciting players, but the Arabic oil barons and Russian oligarchs will always be able to blow us out the water when it comes to the biggest transfers. I would say that we have fairly healthy cash reserves at the moment, but the idea that we can compete for any player is simply not true. We live within our organic cash flows and there is an inherit limit on how much we can spend. Whether Kroenke or Usmanov should give us additional money from their own pockets is an argument for another time. At the least, there is no need for cut-throat arguments among Arsenal fans about whether the club has any money or not - we do have money, just not as much as certain other sides. This means Arsene does buy, but he can't buy anyone. Indeed, Ivan reminded the FSC panel that we do actually buy players. We bought the Ox. We bought Koscielny. We bought Vermaelen. etc. etc. But, there are definite limits to our transfer policy. As IG put it:

We can’t afford to compete with oil money, and we can’t afford to compete with from, you know, super-wealthy individuals from Russia.[...]Our focus is *always* on young players, we’ve got fantastic development system and still there are young players coming through consistently from our youth ranks and that’ll continue to be the way Arsenal do things. [...] We’re about creating star players, not about buying them.

All this builds up to the key passages in the interview:

I think the more important thing that our model is that it’s sustainable. So, if we’ve learned anything from the world’s economic crisis, it has to be that football clubs need to have responsibility – not just for today, but for their own futures. And, you know, our business model means that we can continue to do what we’re doing forever [...]

Now of course there’s anxiety when [other] clubs are spending the kind of money they’re spending. We don’t believe that’s sustainable for the long term. We think that has to come to an end. UEFA agrees with us and is bringing limits on spending in, and we’ll continue to do things the way we do them.

This is Arsenal playing the 'big short'. The club doesn't believe that transfer fees can continue to spiral ever-upward in the manner that they're doing at present. At some point, the club is predicting that all this will come crashing down, perhaps even taking a few clubs with it. Moreover, the club are convinced on this point because of UEFA's recent proclamations about financial fair play. If the market won't correct itself, the regulator will enforce correction. And when the market correction happens, and the bubble bursts, those clubs which have a sound, sustainable economic basis will prosper - namely, us. Until then, and possibly even after then, we will spend our money on astute, reasonable, economical purchases, and young prospects. We're not going to compete with Barca for Neymar, or Man City for whichever superstar they buy next, but we'll get guys like the Ox, Arteta, and Eisfeld.

Does this wash? Well, in a marketplace which played by rational economic rules, yes. But the economics of football are, to be frank, irrational. How long have clubs like Real and Barca racked up debts for? In any other line of work they would have gone bust a long time ago. And the club seem to be placing a lot of weight on FFP having a significant amount of influence. But will it? It's far from certain that UEFA will be able to enforce these rules. And, even if they can, who says that clubs will stay in UEFA in the long-term? Just like the top-four in England managed to set-up the Premier League, what's to prevent the European elite from establishing a European super-league if they don't like UEFA's new rules? Not much, in my opinion.

What it all comes down to is this - in the short-term, Arsenal will not be making any mega-purchases. Our transfer policy will continue to focus on unearthing undervalued gems, and young prospects. In the long-term, the club is betting on the collapse of the transfer-market bubble. Will this happen? Only time will tell. But at least the club is being honest to the fans about how they are directing our transfer policy, for better or for worse.

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Arsenal 3 Villa 2: Ten Thoughts on a (potentially) Season Defining Comeback?

2012-01-29T20:28:00.002-05:00

At half-time today, I admit that I feared the worst. We were losing 2-0 and staring in the face of exit from a competition which, realistically, offered our best opportunity of silverware this season. Fast forward 45 minutes, and Arsenal had completed one of the more memorable comebacks of recent times. My thoughts as follows:

* On the one hand, we were unlucky to be losing at half-time. We had a number of shots on goal in the first-half, including a scorcher from Vermaelen that Given did well to palm over the bar. Villa had enjoyed less shots on goal than us, and hadn't really taken control of the game, despite their goals. The 2-0 scoreline didn't, therefore, reflect the balance of play in the match.

* On the other, who cares what statistics say - we were 2-0 down at half-time, no matter who had more passes, shots and possession. For the first Villa goal, we simply failed to defend a set-piece properly, which was criminal, as was Dunne out-leaping about four of our defenders to head home. Not good enough. The second goal was a bit more of a breakaway affair, and Bent's finish from close range was class. Football is largely about taking chances, as much as creating them, and Villa had taken theirs very well.

* People have speculated hugely about what was said in the dressing room at half-time; but one would hope that Arsene didn't really have to give the epic team talk that has been ascribed to him. I think enough of the players knew that being 2-0 was an unacceptable state of affairs, and I hope the reaction in the second half was down to quite a few of them trying to save their reputations.

* I've seen some writers question how rousing our comeback was, given that it was based, in part, on two penalties. Yet winning penalties in the manner we did was a direct result of the pressure we put Villa under. Last-ditch tackles come from team's who are struggling to hold other teams out. So I would argue that the penalties reflected how we had fought our way back into the game.

* Also, you still have to score a penalty once it's given. And Robin put both of them away with aplomb in a high-pressure situation. According to various sources on Twitter, that put him on 120 goals, equal to that of a certain Mr. Bergkamp. If that's correct, it's fairly astonishing.

* What can you say about Theo's performance? His attempts on goal were almost universally awful, but he showed grit and skill to score his second goal, and he arguably deserved his little piece of luck. A turning point for his season?

* The Ox put in another fantastic performance. Some of his passing is absolutely sublime. I wonder if he has a future in a more central role, given his ability to pick a pass. For now, he is surely now part of the first XI until Gervinho comes back. And Wenger may now have a pleasant headache over who to start between the Ox, Gervinho and Theo after the ACN ends.

* After being at fault for Dunne's goal, Koscielny proceeded to put in a massive performance. Indeed, there was something deeply ironic about seeing him being fouled by Bent for our second penalty. Koz has been massive for us this year, and were it not for Robin's goals, you could make a case that he's been our player of the season.

* The return of both Arteta and Sagna was huge. The game slowed once Arteta came on, but he gives a shape and solidity in midfield which is absolutely vital. We have looked positively adrift without him, and Arsene now has a real conundrum, with Wilshere's absence, of how he is going to manage Arteta for the rest of the year. Because while he is a great player, he does not have a great injury record, and he must not be overplayed.

* It's probably a little trite to say this, but I don't care - Alex McCleish should shut his mouth. His attempt to bring up RvP's alleged 'elbow' in the post-match interview was pure deflection from his side's (embarassing) defeat. It was exactly the same manoeuvre that Warnock tried to pull when we beat his QPR side at Christmas. If you remember, McCleish is the same manager that defended Roger Taylor to the hilt after 'tiny' snapped Eduardo's ankle in half. Here's to many more victories over McCleish teams in the future.

* Finally, this game will hopefully be a turning point for the club's season. We've had a rough January (to put it mildly), but the manner of the victory today is massive for morale - not just for the team, but also for the fans. Losing today would have been huge - it would have ended our cup run, and meant we were on a four game losing streak. Instead, we have a spirited come-back, and we remain in a competition that we have a real chance of winning. If nothing else, let's just savour the fact that we proved some of the doubters wrong today.

After the game, Ivan Gazidis gave a very revealing interview with Fox Soccer here in the US about Arsenal's current transfer strategy. If anyone has a transcript of this, please get in contact. Otherwise, my blog tomorrow may be based on my slightly hazy recollections of it....

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After an Awful January, Things Can only get Better?

2012-01-26T15:47:00.001-05:00

I don't know if you've noticed, but January has been pretty awful so far. We've lost all three of our league games, and we've gone back to our old habit of throwing away leads. United swept us aside with an ease that was almost saddening, given how massive the games between the two clubs used to be. The one bright spot this month was Thierry's winning goal in the FA Cup, but, if we're going to look at this in the cold light of day, should we really have needed him to come on and win us the game in those circumstances, given the standard of the opposition we were facing? Nostalgic love for our heroes shouldn't blind us to the inadequacies of this Arsenal squad.

And then there's been the transfer activity, or lack thereof. At the start of the month, it seemed wise to most of us that we should be looking to at least get a player on-loan to cover for the fact that all four of our first-team squad full-backs were injured. But this hasn't materialized. Maybe he'll turn out to be rubbish, but the fact that Taiwo has gone to QPR till the end of the year shows that players were available in this position on short-term deals. Having to rely on out-of-position players has cost us games and goals - look at how many of the goals we conceded in our last three matches started from wide positions near the box. I've no doubt that if Sagna and Santos were fit that we'd be in fourth place at present. Sagna should return soon, as should Gibbs (but let's see if he has a set-back first), but that's still 9 points we've dropped due to inadequate squad management.

Then there's the lack of attacking options in the squad. Park finally made his premier league debut against United, coming on for a bizarre ten-minute cameo at the end. I wonder if we'll see him again before the end of the season. SSN reported that we made an enquiry for Rodallega today, but it will take a lot to get him out of Wigan at such a late stage in the window. There's also been the inevitable round of Hazard rumours on Twitter - I would love him to sign, having watched Lille a fair bit over the last few seasons, but I think he's a dead cert for Madrid this summer. Aside from that - nothing much. And while we have done nothing in the window, Chelsea have bought Cahill and De Bruyne, and I also expect that they'll conclude a deal for Shakthar's Willian before the window closes. It's deals like those which can be the difference between fifth and fourth come May.

So, we're relying on returning players and emerging players to be part of our push for fourth. Wilshere should be back soon , and Chamberlain has now forced his way into the first team. We can all hope that the Ivory Coast get knocked out of the AOC soon, as I think January has proved just how important Gervinho has become to the team, despite his profligacy in front of goal (as I write this, he has just missed a sitter in Africa). We also need Arteta back ASAP, as he has been a huge miss of late. Relying on an injury-prone player such as him to play every week was always going to be a risky strategy and I hope his knock doesn't turn into anything more serious. We have no-one else at the club (Jack included) who can control possession in midfield like Arteta does.

On September 1 I had high hopes that the January window would continue to see the overhaul of the playing staff that the summer window had haphazardly begun. Unfortunately it hasn't. And it seems that we are betting everything on hanging in there for fourth before we splash any more money. This seems an incredibly short-sighted strategy. If there was ever a time to speculate a little, surely it's now.

Instead, there's been a bit of an unnerving quiet around the club this week. Bits and pieces have slipped out in reaction to the booing on Sunday, including a full statement from Robin which backed Arsene, but little else. No hints at all that new faces might be coming in. One would hope that the silence is coming from the players closing ranks, trying to ensure they give a big performance on Sunday through total focus. Looking at the fixture list, most of our games in February are eminently winnable. All we can hope for is that the worst of the season is now over, but I continue to worry about the lack of depth in our squad. Let's hope I'm wrong - surely things can only get better?

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Arsene suffers his 'Eboue moment' - something needs to change at the club.

2012-01-22T17:26:00.000-05:00

Some historical context first.

Back in March, 2004, we were leading United by a single goal at Highbury. As the game entered the final 10 minutes, Arsene put Pascal Cygan (remember him) on for Freddie Ljunberg, in an attempt to sure up our defence and see the game out. Instead, Cygan went AWOL up the field, United pushed forward, and Saha scored a later equalizer to deny us the victory.

Fast forward 8 years and a young Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain is flying after brilliantly setting up a fine Robin van Persie goal. Wenger hauls off Chamberlain and puts Arshavin on in his place. United adjust their tactics to pile pressure on our left-hand side, knowing that the Russian is not the most enthusiastic of defenders. Shortely thereafter, Arshavin lets Valencia walk past him, and the Ecuadorian sets up Danny Welbeck for a late winning goal.

Two substitutions against the same opponents, which almost directly led to us dropping points in both instances. Yet, while in 2004 there were merely a few muttered grumblings that we hadn’t got the victory that our performance warranted, today there was the nearest we’ve seen to a fan revolt against Wenger’s reign as manager.

It wasn’t the substitution that set the fans off today; it was years of frustration finally erupting. We’ve backed Arsene for a long time, but today seemed to be Wenger at his worse, a moment that saw him follow his technocratic instincts, rather than the reality which almost everyone in the stadium, and anybody watching on TV, could see on the field. Maybe Chamberlain really did have cramp, but he looked pretty annoyed at his substitution to me. As did Robin van Persie, who appeared disgusted to see our best attacking player go off. To me the substitution appeared to be Wenger sticking to a pre-match plan of hauling off Chamberlain at around the 70 minute mark, which he refused to change or adapt despite the reality of the situation.

Whether Arsenal’s transfer budget or strategy is entirely in Arsene’s hand or not, as is endlessly debated on the internet, today saw a failure which was entirely of his own doing. Yes, he had the vision to buy and start Chamberlain, but he also made a tactical error which handed the game to United.

The wider context is that we should not be in a position where we are still relying on players like Arshavin. But Wenger and Arsenal have so far refused to enter the market and buy the new attacking players that we need. That a player like Theo Walcott played 90 minutes today is a massive indictment of whatever strategy Arsenal has regarding squad management.

In short, this may have been Arsene’s ‘Eboue moment’ – a moment when the fans’ frustration at years of mediocre players, under-investment in the squad, and bizarre tactical manoeuvres finally came out. If Arsene is to stay as manager of the club, change is needed, and change is needed now. Fans can tolerate occasional tactical failings if the club is headed in the right direction – the frustration that was voiced today resulted from many fans crossing the rubicon, and beginning to question whether Arsene really does ‘know’ anymore.

Other thoughts on the game:

· * Arshavin is finished at Arsenal. He’s popped up with a few mistakes recently, but Arsene hung him out to dry in the post-match interview. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him shipped out before the window ends. It's sad because he is one of the most talented attacking players I've ever seen at Arsenal - he's just never been consistent, aside from his during his first months at the club.

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* Yennaris’s performance at RB was one of the few moments of positivity that we can take from the game. He was considerably better than Djourou who had an absolute nightmare, and was nowhere to be seen for the cross that led to United’s first goal.

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* But then, what was Vermaelen doing for both United goals? Let’s not play favourites here – he should have won that header with Valencia and didn’t, and he was no where to be seen once Valencia took the ball round Arshavin for the second.

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* A failure to get a short-term full-back has cost us 9 points in January, given how many goals we’ve conceded from our flanks in the last month.

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* So, Park isn’t good enough to participate in any league game this year, but he is good enough to play against United with ten minutes to go? Utterly bizarre. I don’t think he touched the ball.

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* We have missed Arteta badly. We didn’t control the game at all in midfield, bar a twenty minute or so period at the start of the second half. Even then, United almost hit us on the break on several occasions.

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* I am not a fan of Rosicky. I honestly don’t know what he offers. He runs around a lot, and makes the occasional decent pass, but he provides no assists and no goals. The moment in the second half when he was clean through and passed the ball was horrible. Can you imagine Vieira, Pires, Ljungerg, Edu etc doing that? No. It was, and it pains me to say this, cowardly. Time for him to leave in the summer.

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* Koscielny was quietly our best player on the pitch. He has been outstanding this season.

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* I’ve already mentioned it, but how did Theo stay on the pitch for 90 minutes? A disgraceful performance. He has no all-round game, just speed, an occasional finish, and a lot of failed step-overs.

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* This is tough to say, but needs to be said: Alex Ferguson is a considerably better manager than Arsene Wenger. In 2004, both Ferguson and Wenger were faced with an oligarch at Chelsea. Ferguson made astute purchases, and got rid of his driftwood; we packed our squad with young prospects. Fast forward 8 years and it’s unarguable who took the better approach. Ferguson buys better players, and he (or coaches who he actually listens to) makes better tactical decisions. Indeed, the success of United is the most damning evidence you can use against those who say that you can’t compete with City and Chelsea.

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* To return to the beginning of this piece – Arsenal vs. United used to be a title decider. Now, we’re just a minor inconvenience to the Manchester clubs. It’s time to face facts – something radical has to change at the club if we are to compete for trophies again. Either Wenger’s approach needs to change, or the board needs to give him some money, or we need new faces within the club’s management structure. Either way, we can’t go on like this if we are to maintain our status among England’s elite.

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Best of Times, Worst of Times: Arsenal vs. Man United, 2004-2005

2012-01-21T19:41:00.000-05:00

Instead of a preview, I thought I'd look at some classic Arsenal matches against this week's opponents. And when those opponents are Man Utd, there's a lot of games to choose from. So, rather than one game, I thought I'd look at a whole season: 2004-2005. That year, we played United in three games that can genuinely be described as epic (we also opened the season by beating them in the Charity Shield). We lost two of the most memorable fixtures in premier league history, and won a trophy against the odds. This is a story that starts badly, but ends well.

OK, so we actually played, and beat, United in the Charity Shield in August. But, let's face it, no-one should read too much into Charity Shield results. Looking back at the match report you'll see that both teams made 5 subs that day - it's a glorified friendly. It's always nice to beat United, but there's a limit to how much you can read into these games.

So, we have to start with one of the more painful defeats in the club's history - Manchester United 2 Arsenal 0, 24 October 2004. To say this is a day of infamy in the history of Arsenal football club is an understatement. I am convinced that we were robbed in this game. Yes, the unbeaten run had to end at some stage, but not this way.

We had started the 04/05 season with a bang, winning 8 of our first 9 fixtures. Two young Spaniards - Fabreagas and Reyes - dominated the headlines. The former had begun to establish himself as a first team fixture, and played with a composure that was, frankly, baffling given his age. Reyes also began to really show why Arsene had been willing to take such a large punt on him in January, scoring 6 goals in our first 9 games.

At the time, it seemed like we were flying, but there were signs that this wasn't quite the team of the previous year. The 5-3 victory over Middlesborough was an almost farcical game, with the lead changing multiple times during the 90 minutes, while we had thrown the lead away twice against Bolton in a 2-2 home draw in mid-September.

But going into the match at Old Trafford, I was confident that our unbeaten record would emerge unscathed.

This will probably sound like the ramblings of a typical tribal supporter, but if Mike Riley had not been refereeing that day, we would not have lost the game. After the match had started at a blistering pace, Ferdinand clearly hauled down Ljunberg when clean through on goal. Inexplicably, Riley didn't even give a foul. The Neville brothers then decided to 'do' Reyes, with a series of fouls that basically put him out of the game. See Gary Neville's reaction to the second nutmeg in the video below. Van Nistelrooy then raked his studs down Cashley's knee in a move that wasn't seen by Riley, but which resulted in a three-match ban. So the fact that United finished the game with 11 men was utterly laughable.

With the game seemingly headed toward a 0-0, Riley added insult to injury, awarding a penalty after Rooney had clearly dived in the area. Horse face stroked the penalty home, and Sky Sports cried tears of joy as he finally earned redemption for his miss the previous season.

We then chased the game which left us exposed at the back, and United hit us on the break, with Rooney making it 2-0 late on.

The game was followed by a massive bust-up in the tunnel - the infamous 'pizza-gate' incident. This is often portrayed as evidence that Arsenal are 'poor losers' - but how else can you take a match in which at least 2 opposing players should have been sent off, and they then win because one of their players dives in the area?

Ultimately, the unbeaten run had to end at some point. And if it had to end against United, then so be it. But to lose in this fashion was incredibly hard to take. It left a very bitter taste in the mouth, and seemed to profoundly shake the club. In particular, it almost ended the career of Reyes, who never replicated his early season form again while at Arsenal. The team won only 2 of its next 7 fixtures, drawing games against the likes of Southampton, Crystal Palace and West Brom, and losing in the last minute against Liverpool thanks to the 15-second highlight of Neil Mellor's career. Chelsea leap-frogged us in the league and never really looked back.

Indeed, by the time we faced United again on Feb 1, we were really fighting for second place with them, rather than the title with Chelsea, who were now 11 points clear.

The bad blood between us and United clearly lingered, with Keane and Vieira having a spat in the tunnel before the game kicked off. Vieira had confronted Gary Neville over his treatment of Reyes in the previous game, and Keane weighed in. I suppose we'll never know what exactly happened, but it's now entered United lore that this pumped them up to win. Maybe it did - who knows.

The game seemed to start brightly for us when Paddy headed home from an Henry corner. Giggs then equalised after we dallied in defence instead of clearing the ball, but we soon re-took the lead from a sublime Bergkamp finish.

That was probably the highlight of the match as far as we were concerned. Everything seemed to go wrong after this. Rooney somehow managed to escape a sending off despite one of the most spectacular pieces of dissent captured on camera in the last decade. A tirade of abuse directly in the face of Graham Poll didn't result in the red card it warranted.

But unlike in October, we lost the game due to our own faults. Our defending was atrocious, with the nadir probably coming during the third goal. Lehman, who Wenger had dropped after some notable errors - such as his walkabout moment against panathinaikos - had been replaced by a figure who would haunt Arsenal for years to come. Mr Manuel Almunia. The third United goal, where the Spaniard had run to the edge of the area, letting Ronaldo head in, uncontested, from a yard, should have been the signal to Wenger that he had ballsed-up in the transfer market. But no - we would have to endure these mistakes for another 6 years and counting.

Indeed, we should have at least got a point from the game when a United player was finally sent off, after Silvestre headbutted Ljunberg in an act that even Poll couldn't ignore. But, instead, we let John O'Shea score the goal of his career. The bubble that surrounded the 2004 team had totally burst, and our form actually seemed to improve for the remainder of the season, now it was clear that the league was beyond this set of players.

As Chelsea cantered to their petro-dollar fuelled league title, we beat United to second place, and managed to get to the FA Cup final. The scene was seemingly set for another titanic struggle between the two clubs, but Henry's injury forced Wenger to do something that I wish he'd done more during his tenure at the club. He went pragmatic. Instead of the balls to the wall approach we'd favoured in the previous two games, Arsene broke with his 4-4-2 formation, and packed the midfield with Fabregas, Vieira and Gilberto Silva. Up-front, Begkamp was alone, meaning that we effectively played a 4-3-2-1-0 formation, with no out-and-out striker.

Somewhat predictably, we were battered for most of the game. I don't think we had a shot on goal until Robin had a free kick in extra-time. We played defensively out of necessity rather than design, with no outlet up-front to ease the pressure. But, and in the tradition of George Graham, we hung in there in a way that we might not have done had we played with 2 attacked. And, ultimately, United couldn't break the deadlock. The game dribbled slowly towards penalties, and I feared the worst. But the boys kept their nerve, Jens pulled out a massive save against Scholes, and Paddy won the Cup with his last kick as an Arsenal player.

Now, if we'd lost that game in that way, I'd be sick. United out-played us on the day and should have won. But, for once, karma did its work. United had beaten us by foul means in October, and the universe re-aligned when we beat them in Cardiff.

After all this, Vieira was sold to Juventus that summer, and Keane was forced out of United after an explosive interview with the usually pravda-esque United TV. With Arsenal entering the beginning of a decline under Wenger, and the old heart of the United team gone, 04/05 was perhaps the end of one of the greatest rivalries in English football history. These games are still huge, but the level at which they were played from 1998 to 2005 has no equal, to my mind.

Here's hoping we can somehow kick our season back into gear tomorrow, and channel some of the great performance of yesteryear if nothing else.

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"So Paddy Got Up - an Arsenal Anthology": a Review.

2012-01-18T10:27:00.000-05:00

Returning home after Christmas, I opened my mailbox to find a wonderful surprise awaiting me – a copy of 'So Paddy Got Up', the Arsenal anthology edited by Andrew Mangan of Arseblog.com. How my brother had managed to be one of the few people to snag a hard-copy, I don’t know, but it was, to quote Arseblog’s famous slogan, ‘fuckin excellent’ to discover that he had.

The first thing to say about the book is that it looks great. Everything from the book’s typeset to its overall design concept is well done. If you’re going to shell out the extra money for a hard-copy, it's well worth it in this instance.

But the real gold is found inside. Arseblog’s main writer, Andrew Mangan, has managed to gather together a cast of thousands (well, 26), who all opine on an Arsenal-related subject close to their heart. Within this number are both bloggers and professional journalists, and when I first heard of this project, I admit to being sceptical. Would bloggers, when faced with producing content for a book, rise to the challenge? Would they all talk about the same thing (Arsenal are so great, etc., etc.)? Would the quality be uneven?

Thankfully the answers to these questions are: yes, no, and not really. Yes, some of the entries aren’t quite as good as others, but the overall quality is very high, and the book is ultimately a great read.

There are too many chapters to discuss them all in detail, so I’ll just bring up a few personal highlights.

Andrew Mangan’s chapter on how Arseblog started is fascinating – almost like reading how Bruce Wayne became Batman. Linked to this are the excellent entries by Tom Clark of Arseblog and James McNicholas (Gunnerblog), who give a wider overview of the evolution of the online Arsenal community. Arsenal probably have more bloggers than any other premier league side, and both pieces hint at how this occurred.

Being a bit of a history buff , I loved the chapters by Philippe Auclair (France Football), Tim Stillman (Arseblog/Vital Arsenal) and David Faber (Goonerholic), which chronicle the club’s past from its inception to the George Graham era. Auclair, in particular, makes a convincing case that Herbert Chapman was Arsenal’s greatest manager, and provides a range of anecdotes about his life which I hadn’t heard previously.

The chapters by Amy Lawrence (The Guardian/Observer) and Chris Harris (an Arsenal employee) also touch a subject close to my heart – the under-appreciated tenure of George Graham as Arsenal manager.
Yes, people always talk about 1989, but people also seem to think that most of his tenure was composed of turgid 1-0 wins and back-handers in brown envelopes. Yes, he took a bung, but he was also one of the greatest managers in Arsenal’s history. He’s the last Arsenal manager to win a European trophy (lest we forget), and Harris’s chapter also gives some long overdue credit to his marvellous 1990/1991 side, which lost only one game that year. They were the team that made me fall in love with Arsenal – I wish some of our current lot had their fighting spirit.

The pieces by Kieron O’Connor (The Swiss Ramble), Stuart Stratford (A Cultured Left Foot) and Tim Payton (The AST) are perhaps the most troubling in the book. They give an overall sense of how far Arsenal has come as a club since 1991 – both financially and in terms of our overall standing in European and international football. But they also hint at some worrying factors – our position among Europe’s elite is not a given; our finances are not, perhaps, as strong as many think; and we have a confusing ownership structure, with a majority shareholder who is not involved in the club as much as he should be. While criticism
of the club can often be excessive within the blogger-sphere, these pieces choose their words carefully, and are a definite food for thought about how the club is currently being managed from top-to-bottom.

But I think the two chapters I enjoyed the most were by Michael Cox (Zonal Marking) and Tim Clark (Arse 2 Mouse).

Clark’s chapter somehow takes one of the most traumatic events in Arsenal’s history – our Carling Cup humiliation against Birmingham last February – and turns it into a genuinely hilarious story. Being a fan of any club involves a fair degree of gallow’s humour, and Clark’s chapter is a full of it. I literally LOL'd.

Being a tactics geek, I enjoyed Cox’s chapter on ‘Arsene Wenger and Tactics’ immensely. In a very short space – only about 10 pages or so – he manages to analyse many of the crucial fault-lines of Wenger’s reign through the prism of tactics. For example, is it a coincidence that we stopped winning trophies in about 2005-2006, when we moved from being a team full of fast, direct players, who played on the counter-attack, to one with much less pace, replete with individuals who would almost always look for a pass rather than shoot? I’m looking at you, Hleb. The move from a very direct 4-4-2 to a slower 4-2-3-1 has perhaps
been our undoing, as much as the players who have filled the positions in our new formation. Similarly, Cox wonders whether a greater degree of tactical pragmatism by Wenger would have seen more trophies during his time at Arsenal. Those times we have been pragmatic, and moved away from the beautiful game, have actually seen a great deal of success – the 2006 CL run, the 2005 FA Cup Final – whereas a lack of tactical adaptation to our opponents has seen us lose several finals to weaker opponents, who have changed their approach to successfully stifle us. I’m thinking not only of Birmingham in the CC, but Galatasary in the UEFA Cup and even Liverpool in the 2001 FA Cup final. Reading it, you can’t help but think that some form of monstrous hybrid of Wenger’s overall philosophy and vision, combined with George Graham’s tactical pragmatism, could have seen Arsenal win a lot more trophies in the last decade.

The criticisms I have of the book are slight. For instance, its organization is little haphazard. Being a little OCD, I would have preferred chapters to have been grouped together thematically, but others may find the scatter-gun approach charming. Secondly, I would actually have preferred a few less writers, but with longer chapters. I could have easily read an entire book by Cox on Arsenal, but I appreciate that Arseblogger probably wanted to involve as many people as possible in this project.

Ultimately, though, these are minor concerns. Overall, I must congratulate Arseblogger on a superb achievement. To put together a project like this must have been daunting, but, make no mistake, if you are an Arsenal fan, I can almost guarantee that you will enjoy this book. And, to paraphrase the song after which it is entitled, you’ll probably want to read it ‘over and over and over again’.

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Goonerboy article on the Arsenal Collective

2012-01-16T13:17:00.000-05:00

Hi everyone.

I had the pleasure of writing an article for The Arsenal Collective. This is a wonderful website where any Gooner can write about their memoires and experiences of being an Arsenal fan.

Click on this link to read my entry - 'The only Arsenal Fan in the Room'.

It's about my experiences of being an Arsenal fan as a kid/young adult. I'm sure many of you will sympathise with the sentiments that it expresses!

Give it a read, and submit your own entries to The Arsenal Collective.

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Ten Thoughts on Swansea 3 Arsenal 2

2012-01-15T14:10:00.000-05:00

* It's worth remembering that we started well. Arshavin, for all the criticism he's received today, threaded a lovely ball through to RvP who finished with aplomb. Funnily enough, the goal worried me slightly - scoring early can be a bit of a double-edged sword with a team that is struggling defensively as much as we are at present, as it encourages the opposing side to attack from an early stage. Maybe it's an indictment of the current team that my first thought was about how we were going to hold onto the lead, rather than whether we were going to run away with the game.

* Incidentally, that was Robin's 18th league goal of the season, thus equalling his best ever tally. That we're only half-way through January shows how important he has been for us this season.

* The penalty was very harsh. I didn't think it was a foul, but I can see why the ref gave the decision. But let's not blame our defeat on this, please. The ref didn't score the other two Swansea goals.

* I like Ramsey and I think he's a huge talent. But he has no competition for his place at the moment. Even if Wilshere's return doesn't solve everything, it's vital that we have quality in the rotation of our midfield spots. Ramsey didn't do enough to dominate the midfield today, and he was badly at fault for the second Swansea goal. He needs a rest.

* We missed Arteta hugely. His ability to dictate possession and tempo in midfield is crucial, and Benayoun just wasn't an adequate replacement, I'm afraid. Indeed, while I like Benayoun, I struggle to think about what his role is in the squad. Attacking midfielder? Central midfielder? He doesn't really do either position well enough to justify a start at the moment.

* I don't understand Theo Walcott. Sometimes he looks like a massive talent, like when he spanked home our second goal. Other times, he can barely control the ball. And he goes missing for huge sections of games. Personally, I think he is the archetypal impact sub. It's a testimony to our lack of attacking options that he has started so many games this year.

* Indeed, it's an indictment of the strength of the squad that a 34 year old and an 18 year old were expected to change the game for us. Unsurprisingly, neither did. We need more players in their prime - not prospects and ageing superstars. Speaking of which, Park yet again did not get on the pitch. Increasingly he looks like £3 million (plus wages) that we have completely wasted. Unacceptable.

* Szcz was at fault for the third goal - his positioning was terrible. Again, I like him and think he's a huge prospect, but he has cost us points in consecutive games with poor goalkeeping.

* As a whole, the game was eerily reminiscent of the 4-3 at Blackburn. We started well, but blew it through repeated defensive mistakes (made in both midfield and defence) and couldn't cobble things back together in the end. The third goal was particularly galling - to concede immediately after scoring is something you simply should not accept from a top-four side. As the SquidBoy on Twitter has pointed out, we've now thrown away wining positions in three of our last four games (Wolves, Fulham, Swansea). Worrying.

* Everything comes down to this, for me. The transfer window last summer was a catastrophe, which directly contributed to our awful start. We now have money in the bank, but we are making no signs that we'll spend it. If we finish fifth, in my opinion it is a self-inflicted wound caused by chronic mismanagement of our transfer strategy. And that is where we are heading, at present.

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Transfers? You want Transfers? Don't come here.

2012-01-14T00:00:00.003-05:00

I wish I could furnish you today with news of multiple transfers, but alas I live in the real world. There is very little out there to report.

Looking through this list on Football 365, you realise that we're not alone. There is very little movement happening anywhere in the prem, even at Man City. Are the new Financial Fair Play regulations starting to take hold, I wonder?

Probably not, in all honesty. But it is interesting to see a team like Chelsea play hard-ball (somewhat) with Gary Cahill. From what certain tweeters have said, even they weren't automatically prepared to give him a big wage bump.

I wish I could come up with a list of names, but I can come only come up with a handful, really.

There was a lot of fuss about Salomon Kalou earlier in the week. Personally, I think he'd be an OK squad player, but not much more than that. He infuriates most Chelsea fans I know, and I'm not sure he'd be a sizeable improvement over our current options. But Arsene ruled this out today along with any potential moves for Man United's bad-boy/prodigy Ravel Morrison and also Anderlecht's Matias Suarez, despite suggestions earlier in the week that he'd already sign a pre-contract with us (whatever that means). In terms of attacking players, we need more than Henry to come in during this window, but there is not a lot to suggest that anyone new is coming in.

A player we might have gone for is Maxwell, who's just moved to PSG from Barca. However, if PSG were interested in him then that would have probably ruled us out, given their new money-bags status. Still, it shows that there are players out there, who are available, who we could possibly get if we were really determined to do so. I don't think it's reasonable to say that there is no value in the market.

If we are going to sign a player in this window, it'll probably be an LB on loan. Wayne Bridge's name keeps on being raised, but this has more to do with the British media's knowledge of players more than anything else. But Wwth Gibbs supposedly only 10 days from a return, I wouldn't even bet on a FB coming in.

Indeed, it's been a slow window so far, with no major transfers. After the catastrophe that was last summer, I think a lot of us were hoping for movement this January, to continue to make up for the gaping holes in our squad. Considering our first XI are knackered, we desperately need new bodies. Will they come? I'm not so sure. And if we have two catastrophic transfer windows in a row which lead to us missing out on CL qualification, while still having large sums in the bank, serious questions have to be asked about the management of the club - not just Arsene, but all the way up to the board.

I think the game tomorrow will say a lot about how the second half of the season will go. If we don't get 3 points, it could be the beginning of a long four months.

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The Difference Between Good and Great - The Return of Thierry Henry

2012-01-10T09:25:00.001-05:00

I wrote in the blog just before Christmas that I was broadly in favour of Thierry's return when it was just a rumour. If all he does is score one goal, then it's been worth it for a number of reasons.

Firstly, despite returning with Barca and NY, Thierry never really got the send off he deserved. I was there at the Eindhoven game in 2007 which saw his previous last game for Arsenal, and it was a miserable occasion. He limped off the pitch and we limped out of the Champions League. So, if nothing else, it was nice for him to come back and get a real last goal for the club (if it turns out to be that). The emotion that he and the fans showed when he scored was a real lift to the club in what has been a fairly disappointing season.

But...I don't think it will be his last goal. It's easy to think that Henry scored most of his goals at Arsenal through his pace, but he was also simply a phenomenal finisher. Even if he won't burn past players, I don't think he's lost his ability to get into good positions, stay cool, and slot home. And when you consider how much of our travails this season have been down to poor finishing, and a lack of cutting edge in the final third, you have to think he will get chances to score more in the next month or two, and that he will put some of these away.

Lastly, he scored a goal that means we're through to the next round of a competition that I think we can win. Personally, I don't see why we should have to choose between a fourth place finish and winning the FA - surely we can do both, particularly if we get a few more reinforcements in this month. His goal today was the difference in an otherwise fairly lacklustre performance, and means we don't have to go up to Elland Road for a replay. Good stuff, and, ultimately, a good win after the game at the Cottage.

The only dampener I would put on proceedings is that Henry showed the difference between a good player and a great player tonight. Make no mistake, we have very few great players in our current squad. Maybe only one (no prizes for guessing). Until we somehow get more players on the level of RvP and Henry, we won't compete for the very top trophies again. Tonight was the briefest of glimpses of the level at which we used to play - when, in my opinion, we were genuinely the best team in the world, whether or not we won all the trophies that we should have done.

A few other thoughts on the game:

* OK, what is the story with Park? Maybe he would have got on today if not for the injury to Coquelin, but he yet again did not make it off the bench, although at least he made it onto the bench today I suppose. I think there is something odd about this transfer. Park is not an awful player - he did ok at Monaco for several years. I don't understand why he's not been given more of a chance, especially when the alternative is Chamakh. Could he really have been that bad in training?

* I thought Arshavin had a fairly decent match, but his lack of finishing was disappointing once more. I kinda think he might go on a decent run of form if he can just catch a break with a goal at some point.

* Another full-back, another injury. V. disappointing to see the Coq limp off. One wonders where this leaves us now in terms of defenders. Up the proverbial creek, I'd say.

* TH will get the plaudits, but SZCZ made a big save at the end which secured the win.

* I have to say I laughed when Henry took the ball to the corner flag. Ah, sweet memories....

Next up are Swansea. Let's hope we can build some momentum from tonight's game.

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Ten Thoughts on Arsenal 1 Fulham 2

2012-01-02T15:28:00.003-05:00

Well, that was frustrating, but let's start at the beginning (always a good place to start):

* We had, in many respects, an excellent first half. We raced out the box and dominated the game - I think we had something like 60% of possession at certain points in the first period, which is brilliant for any performance away from home.

* Our goal was very nice indeed. A great ball over the top was met by Kos who get a well deserved goal, given his recent, excellent form. Ramsey showed at several points during the game that he has the class to be the fulcrum of our midfield.

* For all our dominance in the first half, the score was only 1-0 after 45 mins. Yes, we should have had a pen for the foul on Gervinho, who was definitely caught by Senderos, but we were creating enough chances around the Fulham box that we really should have scored a second. Indeed, the game's major turning point may have been when we hit the post just after we scored. If we had gone 2-0 up at that point, we could have really romped home.

* But we didn't, and the difference in our performance in the second half was worryingly huge. Whether Arene had told us to play deeper, or whether it was due to some heavy legs after so many recent games, we barely got out of our half for most of the second period, and even before the sending off Fulham really should have scored, with Dempsey and Senderos both going close.

* A major reason that we didn't go 2-0 up was the performance of Walcott and Gervinho. Walcott gets far too much abuse, in general, from Arsenal fans, but he was truly woeful today. When he's prevented from linking up with van Persie, he looks worryingly one-dimensional. Together with Gervinho, they were responsible for the majority of our attacks breaking down on the edge of the Fulham box.

* And this obviously leads into a wider concern - there is no real competition for Gerv and Walcott's places. I've talked a lot about our need for new strikers, but we desperately need new attacking options in midfield. Rosicky came on and did his usual running about routine, but, as usual, provided no goals, assists or even any real defensive cover. I like Benayoun, but he didn't offer a lot when he came on. In terms of the squad, I am growing increasingly bemused by the Park signing. Where was he today? When we needed to rotate the team a little, he wasn't even on the bench. Bischoff mark II?

* The sending off was the turning point in the game, and was the culmination of a series of poor refereeing decisions. By my count we should have had two penalties, and we did not get many decisions in our favour all afternoon. At one point, Riise shoved over Walcott in front of the ref, who gave nothing. In addition, I think that's about 6 penalties in the last 3 matches which we haven't been given. Arsene will get into trouble for his comments after the game, but I think that we haven't had a lot of decisions go in our favour recently.

*Squillaci will undoubtedly get most of the ire for his ten minute cameo, not least because of his 'assist' for the second Fulham goal. But Zamora was completely unmarked, just outside the six-yard box - who was meant to be covering him? Squiddy can't be blamed for everything that goes wrong in defence.

* Indeed, he can hardly be held responsible for the first goal. My article on SZCZ drew a fair amount of criticism, but he was massively at fault for the first Fulham goal. Yes, he made some excellent saves beforehand, but the last thing you want when you're trying to see a game out with ten men is for your keeper to make a massive error when under virtually no pressure.

* Overall, it's days like today which make me think we'll finish fifth this season. Over the festive season we got a great win at villa park, dropped points at home against wolves, scraped past QPR at home and then lost at Fulham. That's 7 points from 12, from a set of fixtures where you'd really hope us to take 10 points out of 12. Chelsea are now back above us, and I have a feeling that they and Spurs will edge us out for fourth come May. Maybe if we get in another 2 players in January in addition to Thierry, then I'll be proved wrong. We've also played all the top four away from home. But today showed how thin our squad is, and that a few players are running out of steam half-way through the season. If nothing else, Wilshere, Sagna and Santos really can't come back too soon.

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Ten Thoughts on Arsenal 1 QPR 0

2012-01-01T15:26:00.000-05:00

* In terms of stupid statistics, the one that was frequently mentioned before the game yesterday - that Arsenal hadn't won a league match against QPR in over a decade - was particularly stupid. They haven't been in the prem for that long, that's why, not because they have some form of hex over us.

* Arshavin shouldn't have been named MOTM - I thought Kozzer was perphaps more worthy - but Arsh did show that he still has some definite value to the squad. His time at Arsenal has never quite lived up to that glorious opening few months when he almost single handedly got us into the Champions League in '08. But he isn't lazy - he's just been struggling for form. He didn't do a lot yesterday, but his assist was a moment of pure class, and shows that we would be stupid to sell him in January.

* We need someone else to start scoring goals. That said, Robin's finish was brilliant.

* Theo Walcott's finish wasn't. Clean through, he has to score, or, at the very least, force the keeper to make a decent save. His attempted finish was appalling, and if he can't take chances like that, then he has no right to ask to play through the middle.

* Gervinho is better than Nasri. Nasri has reverted to the level of form that he had for about 2/3rds of his Arsenal career. Gervinho consistently offers a threat going forward and is much more of an all-round menace, but his decision making needs to imrpove. He often gets into threatening positions, and doesn't seem to know whether to shoot or pass.

* Vermaelen's injury is precisely what we didn't need. Surely we will now have to get a full-back of some sort on loan.

* QPR aren't very good. I expected us to beat them and, really, we should have got more goals. I think they are a major candidate for relegation - any team with Traore at full-back is going to struggle. I say that in part out of hope because Neil Warnock is one of the more odious members of England's footballing establishment, not because of any rancour towards QPR as a club. His comments about RvP's 'clever' tactics - he constantly fouls players in the air, apparently - were needless, and was a classic attempt to deflect the reporter from probing him on why QPR have been so woeful of late.

* SZCZ made a great save early on from SWP. He sometimes has a tendency to needlessly punch the ball, rather than catch it, but you wonder if we would have kept a clean sheet yesterday if Almunia or Fabianski had been in goals.

* It was a good weekend for us in general, with all our major rivals dropping points. We have to build on the advantage we've gained by beating Fulham on Monday, but I wonder what kind of team we're going to put out. There look to be a lot of tired legs out there at the moment.

* If you look at how far we've come since the 8-2, we've done really well to get the season back on track. We're now only a few points behind Spurs, are ahead of Liverpool and Chelsea, and are into the knockout stages of the Champions League (again). That said, there has been some talk on Twitter today about us winning the league, given our recent form and the fact we're only 9 points behind City, after their defeat at Sunderland (check out Martin Tyler's commentary of Sunderland's goal if you can find it on YouTube). This is silly. We are going to be in a very tough struggle for fourth place, and City will end up winning the league comfortably. If their form goes through any form of prolonged dip this month, they'll buy someone. It's not fair, but they will buy the league this season.

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The 5 Best and Worst Arsenal Moments of 2011

2011-12-30T21:13:00.003-05:00

Measuring events in terms of a calendar year in football is a little silly. Almost everything that happens in club football is only important in terms of the August to May season. But so many things have happened to Arsenal in the last twelve months, I felt nostalgic. So indulge me.

The Best

1) Arsenal 2 Barcelona 1.

We not only beat the best team in European football last season, we beat probably one of the greatest club teams ever to grace the game. Barcelona again tried to batter us out of the game in the first half but we held our own, possibly with the aid of a few generous refereeing decisions (oh how we could done with these in the away leg). If Robin's goal was an inspired moment of individual brilliance, then Arshavin's was a real team effort, featuring incisive passing from several players prior to a brilliant first time finish. The result created a real sense of hope that we finally had a set of players who were capable of beating the very best, and it's surely the best result Arsenal have achieved at the Emirates in our short history at the new ground.

2) Chelsea 3 Arsenal 5

The first time for a while that we've really battered another top English team away from home. Robin's hat-trick was absolutely masterful, and John Terry falling over was, let's face it, amazing.

3) Robin van Persie's form

Not since Henry in 2005-2006 have we had a striker as good as Robin. He scores all sorts of goals, with both feet, and he creates countless opportunities for other team members. His contract situation is a real worry, but we should really just appreciate having such a brilliant player at the club, no matter how much longer he stays.

4) Arsenal 1 Manchester United 0

Only Arsenal could go on some form of crippling end-of-season collapse, and still beat the eventual league champions. Beating United is always great, and it's the first time we've done it for a while. Also, seeing Ramsey get the winner was particularly poignant - not only was it a sign that he was over his injury and ready to step up to a bigger role in Arsenal's midfield, it was also against the team he rejected in order to join the Arse.

5) The last few days of the Transfer Window.

Ok, so maybe Park has turned out to be a bit of weird signing - but even he could still turn good. Other than that, getting Arteta, Benayoun, Santos and Mertesacker in the space of about three days might well have be the difference between us finishing in the top four or not come May

The Worst

1) Arsenal 1 Birmingham City 2

Surely one of the lowest moments in the recent history of the club. Everything seemed to be lining up for Arsenal's first trophy win since 2005. All the big clubs had fallen at an earlier stage, although that didn't stop us from a rather humiliating 1-0 defeat in the first leg of the semi-final to Ipswich. Worse was to come. After RvP had dragged us back into the game, we besieged the Birmingham goal, but lax finishing and some decent goalkeeping from Ben Foster kept the scores level. Just as it seemed extra-time was inevitable, we lost, in ridiculous fashion. Koz and SZCZ both went for the same ball, there was a mix-up, there was a goal. The only consolation from all this was Birmingham's subsequent relegation.

2) Manchester United 8 Arsenal 2

I really don't want to dwell on this, because it was an absolute massacre. A combination of injuries and our disastrous summer transfer window conspired to us putting out a poor, disorganized side at Old Trafford, who were then ruthlessly taken apart by United. The only highlight was the amazing support of the travelling fans, who managed to ensure that the club came away from the occasion with some semblance of dignity.

3) Arsenal 1 Barcelona 3

So, we all know that Barca are a great team, but, my god, they have a lot dubious decisions go in their favour. In what must rank as one of the most appalling refereeing decisions in the last decade, RvP was sent off for basically nothing. Despite a Sergio Busquets own-goal having given us a life-line, it was only a matter of time once we were down to ten men before Barca ripped us apart. Maybe one day we'll play them with our strongest 11 in the Nou Camp, and we'll get refereeing decisions in our favour. One day.

4) Basically 95% of the Summer Transfer Window.

Arsene has said that he could write a book about what happened this summer, and I believe him. The handling of the Nasri and Fabregas transfers was a disaster, and directly led to our catastrophic start to the season. I've said it before, but the Premier League seriously has to look at why the season starts before the window shuts.

5) 95% of the games we played between late February and early September of this year.

In early February, we had just beaten Barcelona, looked like we might win the Carling Cup, and were definite title contenders. By early September, we looked like we were on an almost irreversible losing streak. Massive kudos should be given to the players for turning around this situation in the last few months, but you have to go back to the dark days of '95 for a patch of form as bad as that which we suffered for large sections of this year.

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So, it's been a distinctly mixed year, with some real highs and some awful lows. Let's hope we can build on the upsurge that happened with our form recently in the new year. A nice cup run would certainly not go amiss.

Happy new year - let's hope for three points against QPR tomorrow.

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Is Szczesny Overrated? A Statistical Analysis.

2011-12-29T15:23:00.001-05:00

Let's face it - we all love SZCZ. Since Jens was dropped in 2007 (in my opinion ill-advisedly) we've had to put up with some of the less convincing goalkeepers in Arsenal's history, namely Almunia, Fabianski and Mannone. Each, for a brief period, looked like they might have the necessary chops, but all have also had a series of goalkeeping calamities during their period at the club. The permanently terrified look on Almunia's face still haunts me.

So when SZCZ turned up it was a relief for a number of reasons. One - he was confident. Goalkeepers HAVE to be confident. They play in the most unforgiving position on the team and they can't beat themselves up every time they concede a goal, or mess-up a goal kick. Secondly - he looked the real deal. He made big saves in big games (Udinese away anyone?) and he could spread himself, Schmeichel-style, in one-on-one situations. In short, he looks dominant and confident, and that has helped our general defensive improvement since September.

But, while perusing Twitter yesterday, I saw some interesting stats posed by Orbinho on Twitter relating to Arsenal and Spurs this season in the league. Both teams have scored the same amount of goals (34) and Arsenal actually have a higher shot-to-goal ratio than Spurs. (15.1% vs. 14.5%). We also have a similar passing accuracy rate. So Spurs are not actually any better going forward than we have been this season.

Where the stats get even more interesing is in defence. We have conceded 26 goals in total compared to Spurs 19. Yet, we have allowed fewer shots on goal (68 to 95). This means that SZCZ's has only saved 61% of the shots on goal that Arsenal have allowed, while Friedel has saved 79%. Moreover, in a statistic entitled 'errors for goals' (committed by any member of the team), Arsenal have committed 7 errors while Spurs has committed 0.

The conclusion would therefore appear to be clear. As Orbinho put it:

"Effectively the difference between Arsenal & Spurs is that Brad Friedel is far outperforming Szczesny and individual errors by defenders."

Now stats are obviously problematic. The main point of Michael Lewis's Moneyball is that looking at the wrong stats can lead to disaster in sports. And Arsenal's defensive stats have been horribly skewed by the 8-2 drubbing in August.

But, there are some things which I don't think can be escaped here. Namely - Friedel is considerably more likely to make a save than SZCZ when there is a shot on goal. Yes, not all shots are alike, but the twenty percent difference in shot-stoppage % between the two keepers is considerable. And these saves are from both inside and outside the box:

Friedel v Szczesny Inside box Goals conceded 17-20 Saves 34-25 Save % 67%-56% - Outside box Conceded 2-6 Saves 37-15 Save % 95%-71%

Or to put it even more bluntly, for every five shots on goal each keeper has faced, Friedel has conceded one, while SZCZ has conceded two. SZCZ looks particularly weak from outside the box.

So, is SZCZ overrated? I would still argue no, because I dread to think how what Almunia's stats would be like this year if a similar comparison was being made. Indeed, I would still probably guess that SZCZ's stats stack up well against most other keepers in the Prem - I would be very surprised if they were not better than those of De Gea and Cech. Friedel is probably the best keeper in the league this season and has been constantly underrated seen his underwhelming spell at Liverpool.

Moreover, SZCZ is starting his career, while Friedel is finishing his - I'm fully confident that SZCZ will step up and become a world-class keeper in the next few years. But, the unavoidable conclusion from all this is that the difference between fifth and third place for Arsenal so far this year has been defensive errors and a lower number of shots on goal saved by our respective goalkeepers. And that SZCZ, for all his confidence, is still learning his trade.

Let's hope that we can turn both these stats round in the new year, and that Spurs undergo their traditional collapse.

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No surprises as Arsenal struggle for goals again

2011-12-27T12:41:00.004-05:00

Well that was frustrating, but not entirely unexpected. Just before writing this post I saw a Tweet by Orbinho (follow him) that summed up a lot of what's been going on with the side over the last year or so: in Arsenal's last 15 home games in the prem, they've only scored more than one goal on 4 occasions. Not being able to find the goal today has meant we haven't taken advantage of Liverpool and Chelsea's failings yesterday, and we've put ourselves in a position whereby Spurs can increase their lead over us again tonight, if they beat Norwich.

Much has been made, and rightly so, of our defensive failings in recent months. But defensive failings are amplified when teams don't do the business at the other end. If you don't get the goals to kill off a game, you're always one mistake away from a draw or a defeat.

Just think how different things might have been if Nasri had put away any of those chances in the Carling Cup final? Any last minutes defensive balls-up would not have mattered. The pattern has been repeated over and over this season. Unless we get a clean sheet, we've struggled to get the three points.

And when teams can't get the goals to match their overall dominance, players get frustrated. Song was substituted today as he had lost his head - in part, I would argue, because we seemed in complete control of the game, yet were drawing 1-1 instead of winning 3-0.

I suggested that re-signing Henry on a short-term deal might not be a bad idea in the short-term, but our lack of attacking options has now become seriously worrying, and I'm not sure that waiting till the summer to pursue our major targets is going to work.

At the moment, too much of our play is centred around getting RvP on the ball. It makes it easy to defend against us. We have become far too one-dimensional when we ping the ball forward. Today, players like Arshavin, Rosicky, Benayoun and Gervinho got themselves into decent positions, then looked to lay the ball off, rather than shoot. For me, it shows a worrying lack of belief among certain sections of the team about their ability to get goals.

Yes, Hennessey had an excellent game today - his saves from Mertesacker and RvP at close range won Wolves a point. But, in general, we didn't test him enough, and too many of our shots were easy for him to deal with. But when your main attacking alternative is Chamakh - whose main contribution today was to headbutt Robin - it's not surprising that players look for Robin too often, and that we're not testing opposition goalkeepers enough.

Finally, a word on Stuart Atwell. He was poor today, but he made poor decisions against both sides. Milijas didn't deserve to go for his challenge that saw Wolves play the last 20 minutes with only 10 men. Atwell managed to wind both teams up as he sought to make himself the centre of attention. But, really, until some form of fundamental overhaul in the nature of refereeing occurs, there will always be Atwells. The gap between the athleticism of the players and the refs is almost comical now. Players move too fast for refs - even with the help of their linesman - to judge what's going on in real time.

At the very least, Refs need someone watching a monitor in a studio, or pitch-side, who can help them make difficult decisions. Or some form of video challenge system. Until then, unfair decisions will continue to occur.

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Follow Goonerboy on Facebook

2011-12-24T14:58:00.002-05:00

If you're at all bored over the holidays, or you want a place to chat Arsenal, head over to the new Goonerboy Facebook page.

It's really the raddest place to be seen for all Arsenal fans, honestly.

The pros and cons of Henry's return

2011-12-24T14:42:00.000-05:00

Given Arsene did his whole, 'I don't know what you're talking about' routine, when questioned about the potential return of Thierry Henry in the press conference on Friday, I would be very surprised if we do not announce that we are re-signing Thierry on a two-month loan-deal very soon, probably in the first week of January.

So what are the pros and cons of this deal?

Pros

* Emotionally - this is Thierry fucking Henry. The King of Highbury. Our all-time top-goalscorer. An invincible. I really think that re-signing Sol Campbell was a big boost two years ago, and Jens' return last year meant we were spared a little bit of Almunia. For me, it will give the club a bit of an emotional boost, if nothing else.

* He hasn't completely lost it. Now being based in the U.S., I've managed to catch Thierry a few times on TV playing for NY, and he had a fairly decent season last year. He scored a few of his trademark curlers, and generally made a nuisance of himself. He's not completely over the hill.

* Henrik Larrsson. I scoffed when United took him out on a short-term loan in 2007, but he showed that class is permanent among elite players. He got a few goals, and helped United through a difficult period of busy fixtures, helping them to their first title in four years.

* Who else are we going to get in January? Buying in this month is notoriously difficult. The best players aren't available, and those which are usually are only available at a premium. A short-term deal to help out RvP for a few months is really not a bad idea until we can buy a better player in the summer.

* Chamakh is off in January anyway for the African Cup of Nations, so a short-deal hopefully won't hurt his already fragile confidence.

Cons

* He's not going to be the Thierry Henry we knew and loved, in terms of his performances on the pitch. Yes, he's looked good in the MLS - but the standard of football in the MLS is probably similar to the Championship. Competitive, full-blooded, but no-where near the Prem, Serie A, La Liga, etc.

* We have a team and squad that really seem to have bonded recently, and dropping someone like Henry into it could disturb its balance. He's not going to do the famous Henry sulk, but it might be hard for him to accept not being the centre of attention, like he was for virtually his entire time at Arsenal.

* It's hard to get good players in January, but not impossible. And if Robin is off in the summer, we need to blood new players now, instead of trying to pick up multiple strikers later.

* Related to the above points, we've repeatedly tried the budget option with strikers, and I don't think it works. For every Henry or RvP, there's been a Chamakh or Park. We have cash in hand, let's spend some.

On balance, I wouldn't see this deal as a negative, but I think we should be aiming a little higher. We can't just keep on signing an invincible every January - or maybe we can. Maybe Cashley will be back in a few years...or maybe not.

Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays, and Seasons's Greetings. Let's hope we all get the gift of Arsenal victories over Christmas.

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Some Thoughts on 5 Potential January Signings

2011-12-23T10:06:00.001-05:00

I've been banging the drum about the need for new signings for a while now, so I suppose it's time for me to actually come up with a few suggestions. I'm going to stick to players I've actually seen play - a revolutionary concept on the internet, I know.

* Gary Cahill

I suppose this is just worthy mentioning briefly, if nothing else because it's not going to happen. From what I've read this morning, Cahill is Chelsea bound who, for the first time in a while, have a much greater need of centre-backs than we do. Terry should be facing a long suspension at some point due to the Ferdinand incident, and Villas-Boas clearly doesn't rate Alex at all, surprisingly. We were linked heavily with Cahill over the summer, but, personally, I think he falls into the classic 'over-rated English player' category. I don't he's good enough for a Champions League side, and I'm much happier with our BFG, Mertesacker.

Desirability : 4/10. Probability: 0/10.

* Wayne Bridge

In some respects this makes sense. A former international, languishing in Citeh's reserves due to their surfeit of players, could easily be picked up on loan until the end of the season. But then again, he's rubbish. His performances for West Ham last season were abysmal. Personally, I'd rather chuck a youngster in rather than give this guy a go. But, with Arsene moving towards a new, more pragmatic transfer policy at the end of August, we can't fully rule this one out. Let's hope there's a half-decent full-back somewhere else on the market we can pick up on loan.

Desirability: 0/10. Probability: 3/10.

* Lukas Podolski

Finally, someone I actually want us to sign. Considering Wenger came out the other day and said we wouldn't be signing him, this probably won't happen. But things change fast in the transfer window, and maybe we could end up with him. On the plus side, he can get goals, and play anywhere across our front three. He's also got a good deal of experience. However, he also flopped pretty badly when he had to step up a level to play for Bayern. So, does he have potential above his current station, or is he just someone who shines with the national team every few years? If we could get him for a decent fee, I'd be willing to take a gamble.

Desirability: 7/10. Probability: 6/10.

* Mario Goetze

This guy clearly has something going for him, if we, and several other clubs, have already been linked with big-money moves for him. He would definitely bring another attacking option to the club, and you'd have to bet that he's only going to get better with time. But, I don't think we'll sign him. He will probably wait till after the Euros to move, once he's increased his exposure somewhat.

Desirability: 8/10. Probability: 3/10.

* Eden Hazard

This guy is the real deal - as in he's brilliant, but he's also probably going to Real. He has speed, great footwork, superb passing, an eye for goal - pretty much everything you want in an attacking midfielder. I would be astounded if he doesn't end up at Real in the next 2 years or so, but maybe Arsene can work his magic, and persuade him to play for us for a few years first. I genuinely think we could be title challengers if we got this guy in, either in Jan or in the summer. So, probably not happening. But we can dream.

Desirability: 10/10. Probability: 1/10.

Ok, so that was a bit disheartening. Put some more names in the comment box below, and I'll assess some more January targets in the next few days.

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Winning ugly after a defeat shows how much Arsenal have changed since August

2011-12-21T23:39:00.001-05:00

A couple of points after yesterday's win:

* The game showed how far we've come since last season's post-Carling Cup final collapse. Those defeats hurt, and so did the start of this season, but we ultimately managed to clear out a lot of primadonnas and mediocre players from the squad. We have less players that go missing, or make silly, repeated mistakes - I'm looking at you, Denilson, Eboue, Nasri. There also seems to be less of a culture of complacency and entitlement among the current team- every seems to know they have to work hard in every game, something that I haven't always seen in the last few years. Altogether, we seem to have eradicated the culture whereby we go on a massive sulk and lose a couple on the bounce each time we lose. That is very important in the long run.

* That said, we hardly sparkled. While winning ugly is important, I am now seriously worried about how much certain players in the squad need a rest. The chequebook better be deployed in January.

* I like Frimpong, but I don't think he's ready to start Premier League matches for us. Especially with Jack back in the new year, I'd be tempted to loan him out. I know that goes against what I said in the previous point, but Frimpong looks very far from being a reliable understudy to Song at this point. He will be Dench; just not yet.

* Mertesacker has made a few high-profile mistakes since he joined (like two of the goals against Chelsea) but he's still made a massive, positive difference to our defence, in my opinion. It's such a joy to see a defender who is calm and thinks about the game, rather than just motoring around, frantically trying to mop up mistakes. I think by next season he'll become a rock, next to whoever's partnering him.

* Benayoun needs more minutes. He offers more than Arshavin and Rosicky. He has a combination of talent and work-ethic which is great to see. I hope he signs a short-term, say two years or so - permanent deal in the summer.

* Did anyone think Robin was going to miss the penalty? Thought not. His booking was absolutely risible and should be rescinded. A clear penalty.

* Hutton is a disgrace, and there were horrible shades of Dan Smith on Diaby about his tackle on Vermaelen. Luckily TV doesn't appear to have picked up an injury. For every skilful player in the prem, there are still too many neanderthals who lash out violently on a regular basis. Remember, this is the same player who committed a horrific foul on Shane Long earlier in the year for which he received no punishment. Players like him need to be eradicated from football, and the FA needs to bring him longer bans for violent conduct.

* Chelsea play Tottenham tomorrow and for the first time in a while it's difficult to know who, on an non-emotional level, we want to drop points. At this rate, it looks like it will be between us three for third and fourth spot. Chelsea look weaker at present, but still have huge resources and could splash out in January. Spurs are flying, but usually fade when it comes to the crunch. Should be an interesting match. Let's hope they both lose. Badly.

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Team news for Villa - How Much Will we Miss Song?

2011-12-20T10:20:00.001-05:00

Looking around this morning, it's probably best to start with positive injury news, which unfortunately comes almost exclusively in terms of Villa missing players.

It seems that Bent, Heskey, Herd and possibly also Collins are out for Villa. The absence of Bent and Collins are particular pluses as far as we're concerned, but so many of Villa's team have been playing poorly this season that it's hard to know what to take as a positive or not.

I don't think anyone really knows what Randy Lerner was thinking this summer when he appointed McCleish, a manager with a proven track record of getting teams relegated in the premier league. Maybe the convenience factor? Just pop down the road to get your new manager?

Whatever Lerner was thinking, Villa may well find themselves dragged into a relegation battle in the new year if they are not careful, and McCleish maybe realizing that long-balls and heavy tackles don't get you very far in the Premier League anymore.

As such, we should expect to take the 3 points tomorrow. Whether we win or not will put the City result in its proper perspective. Dropping further points could take an oddly uplifting defeat, and turn it into the beginnings of a mini-slump, just when we start the grueling Christmas period of fixtures.

As far as our team news go, Gooner Talk has said that the Telegraph reckon Gibbs will be out of the Villa game. On top of Djourou's injury, this may well mean Miquel has to fill in at LB, with Koscielny on the right. Far from ideal.

An even bigger absence will be Alex Song, who'll miss the game through a suspension he's finally picked up for cumulative bookings on Sunday. He's clearly become a massively important player for the team, even if he didn't necessarily have the greatest game against City. The famous stat, posted by Orbinho, was that up until late March last season, Arsenal had not won a game in which he did not start. I'm not sure if this changed or not in the last two months of the season, but, given our appalling finish to the season, I doubt it changed by much, if at all.

Over on the 'Positive Gooners' blog, the writer has claimed that Arsenal's win percentage this season drops from 66% to only 33% when Song hasn't played. So despite Villa's awful form this year, I am not one-hundred percent positive about the game tomorrow, especially due to my wider concern over whether we have the squad depth to successfully navigate the busy Christmas period. A scrappy 1-0 could be on the cards, and let's hope it's us that gets it.

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