Christopher S. Penn's shared items in Google Reader

Salling Media Sync Puts iTunes Music on Your Non-iPhone Cell

2008-09-04T22:00:00Z

Windows/Mac: Cross-platform application Salling Media Sync synchronizes music from your iTunes library to a number of popular cell phones that don't begin with a little 'i.' The app syncs music by playlist or—if you're phone's got room for it—it can sync your entire library. The interface is clean and helpful, and the list of supported devices is large (though it currently supports mostly Nokia, Sony, and Sony Ericsson phones). Media Sync is available in both free and pay ($22) versions, the difference supposedly limited to "faster sync" for the price tag. We don't have a supported phone at Lifehacker HQ, so if you give it a try let's hear how it works for you in the comments. Don't have a supported device or want to sync iTunes to a non-iPod MP3 player? Check out previously mentioned iTunes Sync.

Salling Media Sync [via Gizmodo]

GimmeSomeTune Supercharges Your iTunes Library

2008-09-03T18:00:00Z

Mac OS X only: Free iTunes add-on GimmeSomeTune automatically fetches missing album artwork, lyrics, and automatically embeds them in your music library. GimmeSomeTune runs in the background, and in addition to the metadata tools, it also supports scrobbling your music to Last.fm, universal hotkeys, iChat status updates, and even Apple Remote control. Apart from all that, GimmeSomeTune is also an excellent iTunes desktop remote, complete with a fully customizable song notification window. The donationware GimmeSomeTune is a must-have for the iTunes lover, Mac OS X only.

GimmeSomeTune

Option ARM Time Bomb About To Explode

2008-09-03T05:02:00Z

HousingWire is reporting Fitch Warns on Option ARMs; “High Defaults Await”.

Fitch Ratings on Tuesday released a wide-ranging look at option ARMs that paints a decidedly negative picture for the mortgage markets over the next 36 months. In fact, the picture is a downright scary one: the bottom line is that most outstanding neg-am mortgages won’t get out of 2011 alive, thanks to forced recasts.

Fitch analysts said they now expect roughly $29 billion in option ARMs to recast to higher monthly payments by the end of 2009, and an additional $67 billion to recast in 2010; of this, approximately $53 billion is attributed to early recasts.

“Though recent declines in the 12-month Treasury average rates have mitigated some risks, the majority of option ARM borrowers have elected to make the monthly minimum payment over the past 24 months,” Fitch said in the report. “As a result, a large number of these loans, especially those with 40-year amortization and 110% principal caps are expected to reach their recasts before the end of the five-year mark.”

My Comment: Declining treasury yields will bail out some subprime borrowers, but not Alt-A Pay Option Arms. 80 percent of pay option arm holders make only the minimum payment. That is all they can afford (if they can even afford that). The time bomb is negative amortization, and that time bomb goes off when negative amortization hits contract levels (typically 110% percent but as high as 125%).

The result? Fitch said it expects 90-day plus delinquencies — already ranging from 10 percent to 24 percent, depending on vintage — to more than double after recast for 2004-2007 vintage loans. It gets worse: Fitch also estimated that the potential average payment increase on the re-casting loans to be 63 percent, representing on average an additional $1,053 due each month.

California Will Be Hit Hard

California will be the state hit the hardest by Pay Option Arms. Florida and Las Vegas also had significant pay option arms usage. Pay option arms were least used in the Midwest where home price appreciation was more subdued than the biggest bubble areas.

For some additional thoughts on California housing, please see When Will Southern California Home Prices Bottom?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com to learn more about wealth management for investors seeking strong performance with low volatility.

The Best Damn Web Marketing Checklist, Period!

2008-09-02T15:31:57Z

by Stoney deGeyter

Marketing a website isn't particularly difficult. It's usually just a matter of knowing what to do, how to do it and having the skills and time to get it done. With that said, marketing a website isn't particularly easy either. There are so many factors and variables in play that at any given time that the job can be quite overwhelming. Obviously I can't address the issue of whether or not you have the skills or time, but I can help you out with the "what to do" piece of the puzzle.

I've always been a lover of checklists, especially when it comes to getting things done. Especially when it comes to remembering what things need to be done! So over the last several years I've been putting together checklists for all kinds of things pertaining to website marketing.

Below is my master website marketing checklist covering over 400 specific items over 23 topics. These topics include things such as website development, SEO, usability, accessibility, etc. This list doesn't cover any "how tos," which are essential ingredients to successful online marketing, but sometimes you need to first know what to do so you can then discover how to do it.

For the sake of brevity, I have kept each check point to its briefest form providing very little explanation. I don't cover why any particular item is included, how important it might be, or what it even means. This is just the checklist in its rawest form.

Over the next couple of weeks I'll provide some additional explanation and insights to the lists below. And since this list is always a work in progress, any additional thoughts and insights are welcome. I'm always adding and removing things as I see fit. Which brings me to one more note: many items are included here based purely on my own preferences and by no means constitute an absolute truth or necessity.

Domain name & URLs (click heading for additional details)

Short and memorable
Uses Keywords
Used in email addresses
Uses Favicon
Site.com redirect to www. version:
Alternate Domain redirects
Home page redirect to root
No underscores in filenames
Keywords in directory names
Multiple pages per directory
Registered for 5+ years

Multiple versions:
.com
.org
.net
.biz
Hyphenations
Misspellings
Product names
Brand names
Type-in keywords URLs

Browser issues (click heading for additional details)

Visible address bar
Fully functional navigation tools
Visible status bar

Site works in multiple browsers
No browser hi-jacking

Site logo (click heading for additional details)

Displays company name clearly
Isn't hidden among clutter
Links to home page

Unique and original
Use tagline consistently across site

Design considerations (click heading for additional details)

Instant site identification
Crisp, clean image quality
Clean, clutter-less design
Consistent colors and type
Whitespace usage
Minimal distractions
Targets intended audience
Meets industry best practices
Easy to navigate
Descriptive links
Good on-page organization
Easy to find phone number
Don't link screen captures
Skip option for flash
Consistent page formatting
No/minimal on-page styling
Avoid text in images

Font size is adequate
Font type is friendly
Paragraphs not too wide
Visual cues to important elements
Good overall contrast
Low usage of animated graphics
Uses obvious action objects
Avoid requiring plugins
Minimize the use of graphics
Understandable graphic file names
No horizontal scrolling
Non-busy background
Recognizable look and feel
Proper image / text padding
Uses trust symbols
Works on variety of resolutions
Works on variety of screen widths

Architectural issues

Correct robots.txt file
Declare doctype in HTML
Validate HTML
Don't use frames
Alt tag usage on images
Custom 404 error page
Printer friendly
Underlined links
Differing link text color
Breadcrumb usage
Nofollow cart links
Robots.txt non-user pages
Nofollow non-important links
Review noindex usage
Validate CSS
Check broken links
No graphics for ON/YES, etc.
Page size less than 50K

Flat directory structure
Proper site hierarchy
Unique titles on all pages
Title reflects page info and heading
Unique descriptions on pages
No long-tail page descriptions
Proper bulleted list formats
Branded titles
No code bloat
Minimal use of tables
Nav uses absolute links
Good anchor text
Text can be resized
Key concepts are emphasized
CSS less browsing
Image-less browsing
Summarize all tables

Navigation

Located top or top-left
Consistent throughout site
Links to Home page
Links to Contact Us page
Links to About Us page
Simple to use
Indicates current page
Links to all main sections
Proper categorical divisions
Non-clickable is obvious
Accurate description text

Links to Login
Provides Logout link
Uses Alt attribute in images
No pop-up windows
No new window links
Do not rely on rollovers
Avoid cascading menus
Keep scent from page to page
Targets expert and novice users
Absolute links

Content

Grabs visitor attention
Exposes need
Demonstrates importance
Ties need to benefits
Justifies and calls to action
Gets to best stuff quickly
Reading level is appropriate
Customer focused
Benefits and features
Targets personas
Provides re-assurances
Answers WIIFM

Consistent voice
Eliminate superfluous text
Reduce /explain industry jargon
No typo, spelling or grammar errors
Contains internal contextual links
Links out to authoritative sources
Enhancing keyword usage (SEO)
Date published on articles/news
Web version of PDF docs available
Consistent use of phrasing
No unsubstantiated statements

Content Appearance

Short paragraphs
Uses sub-headings
Uses bulleted lists
Calls to action on all pages
Good contrast (& with background image)

No overly small text for body
No overly small text for headings
Skimmable and scannable
Keep link options in close proximity

Links and buttons

Limit the number of links on a page
Avoid small buttons and tiny text for links
Leave space between links and buttons
Avoid using images as the only link

Link important commands
Underline all links
Accurately reflects the page it refers

Home page

No splash page
Instant page identification
Provides overview of site

Site purpose is clear
Robot meta: NOODP,NOYDIR

About Us page

Adequately describes company
Shows team biographies
Shows mission statement
Up to date information
Links to support pages:
Contact page

Investor relations
Company news
Registration info
Job opportunities
Newsletters

Contact Us page

Easy to find
Multiple contact options:
Phone
Fax
Email
Form
Chat
Customer feedback
Street map
Hours of operation

Multiple points of contact:
Customer service
Tech support
Inquiries
General info
Job applications
Billing
Management team
Ad-free
Form requires only essential info

E-Commerce considerations

Mini-product basket always available
Displays payment options:
CC
Paypal
Google Checkout

No multiple paths to dupe product pages
No tracking IDs in URLs
Robots.txt shopping cart pages
No (or nofollowed) links to secure pages
Keep secure cert current

Product pages

Visible calls to action
Clear contact info (phone #)
Consistent layout
Clear pricing
Show additional fees
Clear product presentation
Show shipping cost
Show availability
Provide delivery options, details
Estimate delivery date
Link to site security info
Return / guarantee info
Allow "save for later"
Related products & up sells
Clear product image
Describe images

Enhanced multiple image views
Product description
Product details & specs
Product selection options
Customer product reviews
Product comparisons
Printer-friendly option
"Add to cart" close to item
Secondary "add" button at bottom
Standardized product categorization
Clutter-free page
Provide International pricing
Provide product search
Emphasis brand quality and trust
Compare to offline competitors
Short URLs with keywords

Basket page

Obvious checkout link
Product descriptions
Product image
Show availability
Updatable quantities
Ability to remove items
Link to products
Product price
Payment options
Promos/vouchers explained
Link to security

Link to guarantees
Show delivery costs
Show delivery date
Allow gift options
"Continue shopping" link or options
Show contact information
No advertising/upselling
Don't keep personal info w/o authorization
Shipping questions answered
International shipping
International address forms

Mini baskets

Make new products added obvious
Link to full basket page

Allow removal of products
Show order total

Checkout process

No hidden fees
No pre-registration
Keep checkout process short
Show benefits of registration:
Faster checkout in future
Access to order history
Check order status
Saved for later information
Access to special promotions
Personalization
Joining a community
Show checkout progress meter
Effective after-order follow-up
Receipt / Confirmation:

Printable
Emailed
Thank you message
Order number
Order date
Items purchased
Expected delivery date
Payment method
Cancellation policy
How to cancel
Return policy
Address return costs
After-sale guarantees

Login & My Account pages

Easy to find login access
Use security protocols
Provide security assurances
Link for new registrations
Outline account benefits
Reclaim lost password option
"Remember me" option
Link to privacy policy
Logged-in status is clear
Account info change access
Confirmation of change info

Links to financial info
Transaction history
Invoices
Balances
Payment methods
Choose method of delivery:
Text email
HTML email
Snail mail
Overnight
Etc.

Help and FAQ pages

Avoid marketing hype
Allow Help search
Provide printable text
Link to additional resources:

User guides
Product support
Customer support
Downloads

Forms and errors

Flexible entry requirements
Allow for tabbing between fields
Proper tab order
Clear field labels
Text label above field box
Only require necessary information
Minimal instructions
Instructions above field
Friendly error output
Errors obviously indicated
Errors describe remedy
Errors provide contact / help option
Preserved data with errors
Provide pre-selected choices
Don't overdo choices

Note required fields
Progress indicator
Progress navigation
Remove navigation
Link to privacy information
Final info verification check
Confirmation/thank you page
Stack fields vertically
Proper use of radio buttons
Keep "submit" close to fields
Field boxes adequately wide
No "reset" or "cancel" buttons
Autocomplete=off as necessary
Buttons denote action

Site search

Located in top-right corner
Search not case sensitive
Properly labeled as "search"
Link to "advanced search"
Forgiving of misspellings
Shows similar products
Shows related items in results
No "no products found"
Provide refinement options
Provide alternate spellings

Provide links to relevant pages
Show search string in results
Don't place results in tables
Display exact matches first
Display close matches second
Bold query words in results
Display titles with descriptions
No more than 20 results p/ page
Option to increase result p/ page
Link to additional results pages

Privacy and Security pages

Present info in easy to read format
Make information easily scannable
Provide section summaries
Identify information types collected
Explain how cookies are used

Explain how user information will be used
Explain how info will be protected
Provide additional protection tutorials
Link to these pages in footer
Provide links to contact info

Site map

Present info in easy to read format
Make information easily scannable
Provide section summaries
Identify information types collected
Explain how cookies are used
Keep information current
Link to site map in footer

Linked from help and 404 pages
Provide overview paragraph
Provide intro to main sections
Visible site hierarchy
Descriptive text and links
Link to xml sitemap in robots.txt file

Free White Paper: How to Optimize for Google
A free 10 page white paper on how to optimize a website on Google the right way - so the website succeeds.

Baghdad Bonds Safer Than KeyCorp and National City

2008-08-29T18:48:00Z

Bloomberg is reporting Iraq Safer Than Ohio Banks Stung by Credit Crisis.

Iraq's bonds are delivering the biggest returns in emerging markets as oil export revenue bolsters government finances and violence declines.

The country's $2.7 billion of 5.8 percent bonds due 2028 gained 45 percent since August 2007, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. indexes. Investors demand 4.84 percentage points more in yield to own the debt instead of Treasuries, down from 7.26 percentage points a year ago. The spread is narrower than for notes of Ohio banks National City Corp. and KeyCorp, suggesting Baghdad may be safer for bond investors than Cleveland.

Iraq's bonds, which don't have a credit rating, rallied even as more than $500 billion of credit market losses and writedowns drove investors away from all but the safest government securities.

National City (NCC) and KeyCorp (Key), based in Cleveland, have debt ratings of A and spreads of 9.59 percentage points and 7.55 percentage points. The banks are two of the more than 70 firms worldwide that have recorded about $512 billion in losses and writedowns since the start of 2007 amid the collapse of the subprime mortgage market.

FDIC Ready For More Bank Failures

The FDIC is ramping up staff in preparation for more bank failures. Please consider FDIC Adds Office Space in Dallas, Ready for More Bank Failures.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. is preparing to sign a five-year lease to add five floors of space at its Dallas regional office as the agency prepares to increase scrutiny of failing and troubled U.S. banks.

The federal agency, which insures deposits and disposes of failed banks and their assets, will add 125,000 square feet to the 185,000 square feet it rented last year at 1601 Bryan St., a 49- story tower in downtown Dallas. That agency will add about 300 staff at the building, including some of the 69 retirees it is bringing back to help handle the increased workload, said spokesman Andrew Gray.

At least a dozen U.S. lenders and credit unions have been closed by state and federal regulators since last year, and the FDIC said on Aug. 26 it had 117 banks on its "problem list." On Aug. 22, Columbian Bank and Trust Co. of Topeka, Kansas became the ninth U.S. bank to collapse this year.

Dallas is the headquarters of the agency's Division of Resolution and Receivership, the unit that handles failed banks. The staff additions would bring the total number employees at that location to about 850, he said.

The FDIC last year leased seven floors at 1601 Bryan, also known as Energy Plaza, for 10 years, Gray said. The agency will be completely moved into the space by Nov. 1, he said.

The 1.3 million square-foot skyscraper should have about 300,000 square feet vacant once the FDIC takes its new space, said Carl Ewart, managing director at real estate brokerage Jones Lang LaSalle's Dallas office. Gray said the agency has no plans to expand beyond its current 310,000 square feet, "but that could change."

So Baghdad is safer than Cleveland. Who would have thought that?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Obama Acceptance Speech Word Cloud

2008-08-29T14:35:36Z

I love the way Wordle visually depicts the essence of a long written work -- like like last night's acceptance speech -- into a word cloud. (I'll do the same for McCain next week, too).

click for a larger version:

via Wordle

Changing Business Through The Unconference

2008-08-28T11:02:36Z

Attending a business conference is one of the best ways to both grow your business and network, learn and connect with your peers.

But in a post 9/11 world, travel has become complicated, expensive and time consuming. Also, with the advent of the Internet and new communications technology, finding out about the latest and greatest in your industry no longer waits for that once-a-year junket to Las Vegas to walk the conference floor and soak in the glory of your competitor's brochures, knick-knacks and breath mints.

As someone who attends conferences regularly and helps organize them as a volunteer, I can personally attest to the trials and tribulations of constantly having to uncover and provide the best of the best when it comes to speakers. It's a struggle to create an event where everyone from the organizers to the participants feels that the money is well spent.

Enter the unconference.

An unconference is a self-organizing event where a handful of interested people decide to hold a meet-up.

One of the first kinds of unconferences was called BarCamp where people in Silicon Valley decided to come together to discuss technology. This handful of people set-up a wiki (a wiki is a webpage that anyone can edit - check out Wikipedia if you've never seen a wiki in action). Without much else, the community (that would be you and me) takes over. Everything is a blank page as we self-organize.

If you want to attend, you add your name to the wiki. If you want to make a presentation, you add the topic, time and your name. If you want to help out by sponsoring to cover costs... well, you get the idea.

No one ever just "attends" an unconference. The spirit of it is that we are all equal, able to share our knowledge or help in any which way we feel will best serve the community.

You might be shaking your head at this point thinking this is all a little too much "kumbaya" for your liking, but trust me: unconferences will change the way you think about business.

On Sept. 8, 2006, I did something I had never done before. I got in my car and drove from Montreal to Boston to attend the first-ever PodCamp. This was an unconference geared towards people interested in Blogs and Podcasting.

I wasn't an unconference virgin - I had already attended a couple of the more tech-oriented ones in both Montreal and Toronto. But this was a real leap of faith.

According to the wiki, over three hundred people were supposed to be converging at Bunker Hill Community College (the same school where they filmed the movie, Good Will Hunting). But what if nobody showed? I didn't buy a ticket; and there was nobody to call if there was a problem. It was self-organized!

Sure enough, almost everybody who registered showed up and the sessions were incredible. They had titles like Inside a Pre-Launch Startup New Media Company, Hollywood 3.0 - The Challenge of Video-Podcasting, The Advertising/Marketing World And Video Social Media: What We've Learned So Far and so on.

It was three rooms, two days and more information overload than I've experienced at big conferences that I've paid thousands of dollars to attend. They even had free t-shirts for attendees. Lifetime friendships and business opportunities were forged.

Unconferences work because everyone attending wants the same outcome: to learn more and share with their peers.

It's an amazing experience and since PodCamp Boston, similar events have been held all over the world including Germany, South Africa and Ireland.

Two PodCamps have taken place in Toronto and now - for the first-time ever - PodCamp is coming to Montreal.

If you're interested in the new world of the Web, PodCamp Montreal is happening on Sept. 20th - 21 at the Pavillon de De Design at UQAM. In the interest of full disclosure, I am helping to organize this event, and will also be co-presenting two sessions. One with musician David Usher (the former lead singer of Moist and a multi-million CD selling solo artist) called, The New New Music - Fans, Community And What Business Can Learn From An Industry In Peril, and one with podcaster C.C. Chapman called, Podcasting From The Heart - The Value Of Recording A Show With No Editing And No Second Takes.

PodCamp Montreal is free to attend (but you do have to register by going to podcampmontreal.org) and if you're also interested in presenting or helping out, just hop over to the website for more information.

Vancouver is getting two major unconferences in the coming weeks. BarCampBank is coming to town on Sept. 20-21 at BCIT's downtown campus. According to the wiki, BarCampBank is a place to "foster innovations and the creation of new business models in the world of banking and finance." So far, there are 65 registered people attending (there is a $35 fee to cover the facility and food costs), and you can find out more information here: www.barcamp.org/BarCampBankBC.

BarCamp Vancouver 2008 is taking place Sept. 26-27 (the venue is still to be determined). BarCamp will have a technology focus, and you can find out more information here: www.barcamp.org/BarCampVancouver2008.

Even if you're not fully interested in technology or banking, I highly recommend you check out these events to get a feel for the unconference movement, and a better appreciation of how the business of conferences is changing.

The above posting is my twice-monthly column for the Montreal Gazette and Vancouver Sun newspapers called, New Business - Six Pixels of Separation. I cross-post it here with all the links and tags for your reading pleasure, but you can check out the original versions here:

- Montreal Gazette - You Should Attend An Unconference.
- Vancouver Sun - Changing Business Through The Unconference.

Tags: barcamp barcamp bank barcamp vancouver boston bunker hill community college business business section cc chapman conference david usher good will hunting internet mass media moist montreal montreal gazette music industry newspaper podcamp podcamp boston podcamp montreal publishing self-organizing silicon valley speakers speaking technology unconference vancouver sun wiki wikipedia

Money Markets Show Credit Crunch is Worsening

2008-08-25T13:15:00Z

This morning's must read journalism is a Bloomberg piece on credit availability as projected/forecast by money markets and interest rate derivsatives.

Ubiq-cerpt:™

In a replay of the last four months of 2007, interest-rate derivatives imply that banks are becoming more hesitant to lend on speculation credit losses will increase as the global economic slowdown deepens. Binit Patel, an economist in London at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., said in an Aug. 21 report that nations accounting for half of the world's economy face a recession.

The premium banks charge for lending short-term cash may approach the record levels set last year, based on trading in the forward markets, where financial instruments are sold for future delivery. Back then, concern about the health of the banking system led investors to shun all but the safest government debt, sparking the biggest end-of-year rally for Treasuries since 2000. . . .

Banks are charging each other a premium of 77 basis points over what traders predict the Federal Reserve's daily effective federal funds rate will average over the next three months to lend cash. The spread is up from about 24 basis points in January, and may widen to 85 basis points, or 0.85 percentage point, by mid-December, prices in the forwards market show.

Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said in June that this spread, which is the difference between the three-month London interbank offered rate for dollars and the overnight indexed swap rate, should serve as a measure for telling when markets have returned to normal.

The entire piece is worth a few moments of your time. In a related analysis, Goldman Sachs economist in London -- mentioned on the above piece -- is forecasting a significant Global recession:

Half the world economy, including the UK, is in recession or on the brink, according to research from Goldman Sachs.

The investment bank has warned that the world's major economies, including the US, Japan, the eurozone and the UK, are "either in recession or face significant recession in the months ahead".

It also raised fears that the slump could have a profound knock-on effect for China, whose thirst for raw materials and consumer products has been propping up many economies.

Kinda makes all those decoupling theories look rather foolish . . .

Sources:
Libor Signals Tighter Credit as Banks Balk at Lending
Liz Capo McCormick and Gavin Finch
Bloomberg, Aug. 25, 2008
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aa9qsN2KBb0Y&

Recession fear for half the globe, says Goldman Sachs
Chris IrvineLast
Telegraph, 12:02am 22/08/2008
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/08/22/cnrecession122.xml

ECRI's Weekly Leading Index: No Business Cycle Upturn in Sight

2008-08-26T11:15:00Z

Chart courtesy of ECRI

>
As the chart above reveals, ECRI's leading indicators are deep into recession territory. Not only are they weekly measures at the lowest levels in 5 years, but the annualized drop is the biggest in 28 years.

Reuters:

"The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 125.9 in the week to Aug. 15 from 126.4 in the previous period. Its annualized growth fell to negative 11.4 percent from minus 10.7 percent, revised up from minus 10.8 percent. It hit its lowest mark since the week to June 13, 1980, when it was negative 11.8 percent.

The index declined to its lowest since July 2003 due to lower stock prices and housing activity, and the fall was partly offset by lower interest rates and jobless claims, said in an instant message interview Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.

"Last year WLI growth fell to its worst reading since the 2001 recession, and today it has plunged to a 28-year low, its worst reading since the 1980 recession," he wrote. "This makes it crystal clear that there is no business cycle upturn in sight."

It is getting increasingly difficult for event he most polyannish permabull to claim -- at least within a straight face -- that there is no US recession.

>

Sources:
Weekly Leading Index (WLI) Press Release
ECRI
Friday, August 22, 2008

US yearly growth gauge drop biggest in 28 yrs-ECRI
Rodrigo Campos
Reuters, Aug 22, 2008 10:31am
http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSNAT00430820080822

Loan Performance House Price Index

2008-08-26T18:30:00Z

Yet another non NAR source of data for Housing Prices: Corelogic.

Source:
June 2008 Loan Performance House Price Index
SANTA ANA, Calif., August 18, 2008–First American CoreLogic, a
https://www.corelogic.com/pressroom/press-releases/archive/20080818_first-american-corelogic-releases-june-2008-loanperformance-house-price-index/

New Media Conversations on AIDS.gov with Mr. Christopher Penn

2008-08-25T22:00:00Z

The Conversations on AIDS.gov series continues with Christopher Penn, Chief Technology Officer of the Student Loan Network, Founder and producer of the Financial Aid Podcast, and Co-founder, PodCamp New Media Community unConference. Mr. ...

How to Find Cheap College Textbooks

2008-08-26T19:54:56Z

Christopher S. Penn, host of the Financial Aid Podcast, shares his best tips for finding these books in the appropriately titled “How to Find Cheap College Textbooks.” Thanks, Christopher S. Penn and Edvisors, for providing these ideas ...

New Direction, New Beginning

2008-08-27T01:35:00Z

I’m sitting in a hotel room in Boston with my family, ready to move in to Tufts tomorrow morning. I’m very excited, but predictably scared. It’s a huge change for me - from the countryside of Dover Plains to the urban sprawl of Boston.

In the beginning of this year, I vowed to set a new goal or focus for each month and work at it. I’ve done it before and I’ll do it again - I messed up. August was noticeably missing a resolution, but the most important part of accomplishing a goal is getting back on track when knocked off course.

Let’s get back on track. I’m dedicating September to trying new things, meeting new people, and immersing myself in new experiences. Although this is what college is all about, I plan to put special effort into this endeavor. I won’t lay back and let these experience find me; I’m going to go out and seek them myself.

Besides the changes in my life, you may have noticed a change on this blog. Because this is a very symbolic time in my life, a time of transition, I changed the color scheme of the blog to something much more refreshing. It’s only one of many changes that I have lined up for this website when I get some free time.

I don’t know how my blogging will change now that I’m starting college, but I assure you that I will continue to write. I’m not sure how often or about what, but I will always write about the important things in my life and how they may relate to you, especially when it comes to bettering our world.

I hope you’ll stay with me on this journey.

New Media Conversations on AIDS.gov with Mr. Christopher Penn

2008-08-25T22:00:00Z

The Conversations on AIDS.gov series continues with Christopher Penn, Chief Technology Officer of the Student Loan Network, Founder and producer of the Financial Aid Podcast, and Co-founder, PodCamp New Media Community unConference. ...

Spam Works - Sad But True

2008-08-25T12:10:53Z

Is the amount of Spam you're getting bringing your online depression to new heights? I'm getting it too. Spam - now new and improved. I've had spam in Twitter, the latest pain has been Spam in Facebook and I'm dealing with this insane amount of fake CNN and MSNBC spam in my email in box (it's so good that - at first - I thought it was real email from the two news outlets).

There's a reason you can't get away from it: It works.

Check out this news item from AppScout: 29 Percent of Internet Users Admit Purchasing from Spam.

Ouch.

That's nearly one-third of the entire online population (and, for the record, this is inching ever-closer to the one billion person mark).

"29 percent of Internet users that admit to purchasing items from spam email, according to a recent survey. Often these goods are pirated, counterfeit, or cheap knock-offs that would be difficult to come by through the legitimate market... More than 150 billion spam messages circulate daily, accounting for more than 85 percent of the total number of emails sent throughout the world. The sheer volume of spam consumes an enormous amount of bandwidth and remains one of the Internet's biggest security problems."

The report was put together by Marshal's Threat Research and Content Engineering (TRACE) team and you can review their news release here: Sex, Drugs and Software Lead Spam Purchase Growth.

And, it's not just fake Rolex watches that we're buying. Get ready for this:

"The most commonly purchased items include sexual enhancement pills, software, adult material and luxury items such as watches, jewellery and clothing."

Common knowledge dictates that the open and response rates for Spam is minimal, but with that much messaging being plugged into the tubes, it's clear that there are still enough financial rewards for the spammers to continue working the channel.

And here's the sad reality:

“A common misconception is that ‘regular’ people don’t buy from spam. But, you have to consider the types of products people are buying. It’s pirated software, knock-off watches, counterfeit designer goods, cheap drugs and prescription medicines, pornography and other adult material. The Internet provides convenience and a degree of anonymity to people who want to buy illegal or restricted goods. It is a black market and spam has become a conventional means of advertising to a willing audience of millions of people who are purchasing from spam.”

If you follow the numbers, we're talking about 250 million people who are - obviously - interested in this type of messaging. This is the paradox of advertising. The general consumer screams for less and less advertising, but buys into it at such a furious rate that although they say they're not interested, they are sustaining the business model by voting with their dollars. The old adage continues to be true: if you really don't want spam, stop buying from these types of messages. There is another theory that if less and less people responded to Spam, the spammers would kick it up and increase the messaging. I don't believe this to be true. Spammers use this channel because it is cheap and cost effective. They'll move on to something else once the fast buck is no longer ready for the taking.

Tags: advertising appscout cnn ecommerce email email marketing facebook facebook spam inbox internet marshal msnbc online marketing open rate response rate rolex spam spam email spammers twitter twitter spam

Ten Financial Entities On The Brink

2008-08-22T06:23:00Z

Clearly Lehman (LEH) is on the brink of disaster. I talked about that on Tuesday in Lehman In Deep Trouble.

On Wednesday, the Financial Times was reporting Lehman’s secret talks to sell 50% stake stall.

Lehman Brothers, the beleaguered US investment bank, held secret talks to sell up to 50 per cent of its shares to South Korean or Chinese parties in the first week of August but failed to reach agreement with either.

The South Koreans and Chinese walked away after concluding that Lehman was asking too high a price, said New York-based people familiar with the potential buyers. Lehman declined to comment.

Fannie and Freddie Are Collapsing

Fannie Mae (FNM) is trading at $4.85 with a market cap of $5.19 billion and Freddie Mac (FRE) is trading at $3.16 with a market cap of $2.04 billion. Freddie Mac has promised to raise $5 billion in equity. Clearly that is not going to happen without a government bailout. The only question now is "How big will that bailout be" given that Fannie, Freddie Have An Enormous $223 Billion Debt Rollover Problem.

Washington Mutual (WM) Is On The Brink

Washington Mutual has announced it has "no plans to raise capital". The reality is Washington Mutual cannot realistically raise capital. I talked about this in Death Spiral Financing at WaMu, Merrill Lynch, Citigroup.

Minyan Peter had some interesting comments about Washington Mutual in Wells Fargo, WaMu Can't Ignore Credit Crunch.

Last fall, in Coming Bank Themes: Whispers From the Confessional I shared with Minyanville readers that Washington Mutual (WM) had, to use the company's own word, "opportunistically" moved a large portion of its "held for sale" mortgages into its "held to maturity" portfolio.

At the time, management suggested that the reason was because of the attractive pricing that it saw on the loans. As I wrote then, and continue to feel now, I believe that the real reason was the difference in accounting for banks between "held for sale" and "held to maturity" assets.

Put simply, for banks, "held for sale assets" must be marked-to-market every quarter, with the changes in unrealized gains or losses flowing through comprehensive income – and I would note up front, not net income.

While "held to maturity" assets remain at cost (or market value as of the day of reclassification, if moved to "held to maturity" from "held for sale") and, like other loan assets, only when management is certain of cashflow impairment, are they written down.

As I have seen in a number of second quarter bank 10-K’s and in financial media, it now appears that banks are moving other assets at a rapid pace from "held for sale" to "held to maturity." Specifically, the assets that banks moved most during the second quarter appear to be largely trust preferreds as well as CDO’s from pooled trust preferreds issued by other financial institutions.

Washington Mutual, Wells Fargo and other banks are playing valuation games with "assets held to maturity". They really want to sell this garbage, but they can't except at prices that will cause them to raise more capital.

From here on out, any assets banks or brokerages move to the "assets held to maturity" class is extremely suspect.

Merrill Lynch (MER) set the tone for what such assets might be worth when it shocked everyone by announcing it sold CDOs at 22 cents on the dollar. The reality was much worse. Merrill Lynch actually got 5.5 cents on the dollar as noted in Ratchet Provisions Soak Merrill Lynch, Will Sink WaMu.

Beyond Fannie, Freddie: Three More Problem Children

Minyanville professor Bennet Sedacca noted his favorites in Beyond Fannie, Freddie: Three More Problem Children?

While everyone focuses on Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE), in my opinion there are 3 other possible disasters waiting in the wings.

1. Regions Financial (RF): The company needs to raise $2 billion, says Sanford Bernstein. What are their options for doing so?

They can sell debt. The problem here is that I believe you couldn't sell debt if you wanted. The last reported trade in RF paper was 2 weeks ago, nearly +700 to the 30 year or close to 12%. The company's preferred trades at 10%. And the stock is now a 'single digit midget' near $8 a share. So, as I see it, if you could get a deal done, shareholders could get a 50% haircut.

2. Washington Mutual (WM): WaMu trades as if it's in deep trouble. Its bonds trade in the 20% range and no way can they issue a preferred.

3. Lehman Brothers (LEH): This is my favorite and sits as my 'most likely to fail' problem child. Its stock is now on its way to being a single digit midget and just stuck investors with 143,000,000 shares at $28 a share in June of this year. I don't believe many folks are willing to buy more at $12. Also, its preferred stock trades are a not awe-inspiring 16%.

More Than The FDIC Can Handle

That is already more than the FDIC can handle which is exactly why the FDIC Is Passing Around The Collection Plate.

Poor, poor FDIC - ever the Treasury Department’s whipping boy.

The latter gets to smack the former around like a badminton birdie because the FDIC’s primary responsibility is to clean up the Treasury’s messes. And these days, there are messes aplenty.

It goes like this: The Treasury oversees a regulatory body called the Office of Thrift Supervision, or OTS, that’s tasked with keeping tabs on federal thrifts (which are just mortgage companies moonlighting as federally chartered banks).

Until recently, the OTS was responsible for monitoring IndyMac Bancorp, which collapsed last month under the weight of misplaced mortgage bets. The FDIC is now sorting out the mess. The OTS also oversees such thriving institutions as Washington Mutual (WM), BankUnited (BKUNA) and Downey Savings (DSL).

Since the OTS’s idea of regulation is apparently to wake up late, sip a latte and spend the day diligently ignoring the wildly unsafe lending practices of its member banks, the FDIC is up to its ears in barely solvent financial institutions.

The FDIC charges deposit-taking institutions fees about $0.05 per $100 in deposits to display the group’s goofy logo (which dates to its Depression-era roots). This is meant to assure customers their money's safe, even if the bank’s risk management policies aren't.

Now, the FDIC's challenge is to raise sufficient funds to cover the coming wave of bank failures - without putting undue stress on the already shaky banking system or igniting fears that it would need to tap taxpayers' money to protect, well, taxpayers' money.

Add Wachovia And Corus Bank To The List

Wachovia (WB) has made a horrendous mess out of things with its pick-a-pay mortgages, inherited from the infamous acquisition of lender Golden West at the height of the housing boom in 2006. But that's not all. Wachovia has made so many mistakes that I am asking Can Wachovia Do Anything Right?

Corus Bank's (CORS) Yahoo! Finance Profile is enough to tell its story of bubble lending gone mad. "The company's loan portfolio comprises commercial real estate loans, including condominium construction and conversion loans; residential real estate loans; and other commercial loans. It focuses its lending activities in various metropolitan areas in Florida and California, as well as in Atlanta, Las Vegas, New York City, and the District of Columbia."

Let's not forget the monolines, Ambac (ABK) and MBIA (MBI)

Financial Entities On The Brink

Lehman (LEH)
Washington Mutual (WM)
Fannie Mae (FNM)
Freddie Mac (FRE)
Corus Bank (CORS)
BankUnited (BKUNA)
Downey Savings (DSL)
Wachovia (WB)
Regions Financial (RF)
MBIA (MBI)
Ambac (ABK)

On account of deflation, I had to throw in a bonus 11th. Everyone wants more for their money these days, even when things like this are free.

I am quite sure there are many more deserving candidates that should be on the list. An excellent case can be made for Ford (F) and GM. They are really not manufacturing companies but rather financial lending disasters.

The key here is there is virtually no chance the Fed can save them all, or even most of them. The list is simply Too Big To Bail.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Lehman In Deep Trouble

2008-08-19T20:33:00Z

Bloomberg is reporting Lehman May Report $4 Billion Writedown, JPMorgan Says.

Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. may write down about $4 billion in credit-related investments and other assets when it reports fiscal third-quarter earnings, JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts said.

Lehman may mark down some of its $61 billion of mortgage and other asset-backed securities after benchmark residential and commercial mortgage-related indexes declined by as much as 20 percent, the analysts wrote.

Lehman, the largest underwriter of mortgage bonds before the subprime market collapsed, has slumped 77 percent in New York trading as it struggles to pare its debt holdings. The bank has reported writedowns and credit losses of $8.2 billion in the past 12 months, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The analysts cut their per-share estimate for the third quarter to a loss of $3.30 from a 35-cent profit. They expect Lehman to report a loss of $6.77 a share for the full year, compared with their earlier forecast of a $2.35 loss.

"Lehman continues to have significant exposure to mortgages and asset backed securities," JPMorgan's Worthington said in the report. "We believe management wants to leave its mortgage troubles behind and restore confidence."

Securities firms are cutting their holdings of riskier loans and selling assets to shore up capital. Lehman wants to sell 20 percent of its more than $60 billion of "distressed" assets in the third quarter, Merrill Lynch & Co. analyst Guy Moszkowski, said in a July 28 note to clients. He expects the firm to post a $2.5 billion writedown on home loans in the quarter.

The securities firm will probably retain its Neuberger Berman LLC asset-management unit, the JPMorgan analysts said. "We don't think the ratings agencies would welcome this divestiture," they added.

Unsolvable Dilemma For Lehman

Minyan Peter had a few thoughts on Lehman earlier today on Minyanville.

The rumors swelling around Lehman's (LEH) sale of commercial real estate and a stake in Neuberger Berman highlight important dilemmas for financial institutions: In order to rid themselves of troubled assets, they must find good assets to sell to offset the loss on the bad. Otherwise, they must either dramatically shrink their balance sheets or, with the hybrid market closed, issue additional common equity.

But realize, by selling the good with the bad, financial institutions are dramatically altering their future earnings potential. Further, for some firms, as credit continues to deteriorate, we will reach the point where there are no good assets left to sell.

Not saying that we are there today, or that one of those firms is Lehman. But recognize that the unwinding process is clearly underway.

Deleveraging Risk Still Growing

On August 4, in Deleveraging Risk High And Growing At Lehman I commented "There is virtually no chance that Lehman can avoid huge losses on those $65 billion in mortgage and real estate securities, I do not care what the alleged quality is compared to Merrill. There is simply little market for illiquid mortgage and real estate securities. Furthermore, the longer Lehman waits, the worse both will get, especially commercial real estate holdings. A $20 billion hit would not surprise me one bit."

Lehman raised $4 billion in capital in common equity on June 10th at $28 a share and an additional $2 billion in preferred stock. See Lehman posts loss and plans to raise capital. Clearly Lehman did not have a clue as to how much capital it would need. The same thing can be said for Citigroup (C), Merrill Lynch (MER), Washington Mutual (WM), Wachovia (WB) and others.

Every step of the way, these companies have announced the "final round" of capital raising effort only to have to go back to the well again and again.

Ironically "The hedges that Lehman had put in place to cushion potential losses from mortgage investments went wrong, adding to the red ink, rather than minimizing it." (see above link for more details).

Rising Default Risk At Lehman, Merrill Lynch, Citigroup

Credit default swaps show Rising Bond Risk On Concerns Over Bank Credit Losses.

The cost of protecting corporate bonds from default rose after analysts predicted Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. may write down about $4 billion in assets, signaling losses at the world's largest banks and financial companies will deepen.

Credit-default swaps on Lehman and Merrill Lynch & Co. climbed to the highest in more than three weeks and contracts on Citigroup Inc., the biggest U.S. bank by assets, jumped to a five-week high.

"The worst is yet to come in the U.S.," said Rogoff, a Harvard University professor of economics. "The financial sector needs to shrink; I don't think simply having a couple of medium sized banks and a couple of small banks going under is going to do the job."

Preferred Window For Lehman Is Closed

Minyanville professor Bennet Sedacca had a few comments on Lehman today.

Lehman's benchmark preferred deal it did at 7.95% in February at 25 is now 15.5 bid for a cool 12.82% yield. So the preferred market is closed.

The debt market? Lehman's debt trades, when it trades, in the +450-500 range so I would imagine it would have to come to market in the +600 range considering where other deals have been done of late.

When the window shuts and your balance sheet erodes, you are finished. Period.

Lehman Daily Chart

click on chart for sharper image

Lehman's Choices Revisited

Assuming the preferred market is closed, when Lehman goes to raise capital it will have two choices.

Sell Assets
Issue Common Stock

Issuing common stock will be massively dilutive. It last did so at $28 and that was at a $4 discount to the share price at the time. Lehman is now at $13.07. And selling assets poses the problem Minyan Peter described above.

All things considered, no matter how much Lehman wants to keep hold of its Neuberger Berman asset-management unit, it is unlikely to be able to do so. Indeed there is a question if Lehman survives at all. For more on that thought please see Meredith, Can Lehman Survive This?

Lehman is in deep trouble. Like Citigroup, if Lehman somehow does survive, it will not be in one piece looking anything like it does today.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Richard Cheese the Ultimate Classless Act

2008-08-19T18:47:46Z

Update 2: Out of Respect for Brian Ibbott at Coverville.com I have opted to remove the video for Brian’s sake. I will be talking more about Richard Cheese and his demand letter later. A simple apology by Richard Cheese which has been asked for, and not yet given would have gone a long way.

Well over 20 people video taped the performance of Richard Cheese I was not the only one. Every performer prior to Richard had been taped by a huge number of attendees. We were never told that cameras were not allowed. As it turns out, post event Richard Cheese has a clause in his contract that prohibited filming. No one attending the event knew this at the time.

In my video I only played two short clips to show the attack on me personally and that of Richard Spitting on another fan which clearly falls under fair use regardless. While Richard did forcefully remove the camera from my hands and throw it back at me which hit me in the chest then fell to the ground I must say I was surprised by the assault. He could have simply stopped the music and said that no cameras were allowed we all thought it was part of his act up until he took my camera away and then spit on another person with a camera.

Update 1: It appears that Richard Cheese had some ridiculous clause in his performance contract that no video would be allowed during the event. The participants of the event were not informed of this. It appears now that Organizer Brian of Coverville is possibly being threatened by Richard Cheese because of my Video. Sadly I submitted this video to all of the major video websites before I was informed of this. I will make a decision on removal after consultation with my lawyer!

During the Coverville 500 a concert held during the new media expo I got to witness the biggest jerk I have ever seen during a live event.

I want to preface these comments with the following statement. The organizer of the Coverville 500, Brian Ibbott did an amazing job and brought in some amazing talent at a terrific venue. Sadly, little did Brian know how badly one of his performers was going to behave. Overall the Coverville 500 of which my company was one of the sponsors was a great event.

But lets talk a little about Richard Cheese here is the setup. You have 500–1000 new media creators at a concert organized just for them. All of these media creators carry video cameras or audio recording devices. This is an event where cameras and recording devices are allowed. The artist performing all knew this in advance.

New Media is all about cross promotion and many of us had cameras there ready to capture performances that are shared with our audiences and cross posted on multiple sites worth countless dollars.

When Richard Cheese stared his performance he started complaining about the Audio levels, and from what I heard later he had demanded from the organizer that all other prior performers audio levels be at a lower level then his. This complaining continued for the first few minutes of the show. Then during the show he kept turning his back on the audience and was texting someone on his mobile device. It turned out he was texting Brian the organizer and bitching about the Audio levels (note Richard's Manager said he used his phone as a timer and says he was not texting). The Audio Levels were fine from my vantage points.

But this is just the beginning of his antics. He started out by telling everyone to put their cameras down and was complaining about us filming him. There were probably 20 people with cameras. I was shooting video of him with a small hand held camera. He then pushed someone out of the way and came partially off stage, grabbed my camera pulled it from my hands shut it off and then threw it at me which I subsequently dropped as I was so surprised.

Then he went down the line, and spit on some people to get them to put their cameras away. Did he not understand that this crowd was 100% new media. Did he not realize that he pissed off the very people that would have given him some props?

(Video Removed out of Respect for Brian Ibbott of coverville. While the assault of me and one other fan is well documented unknown to us Brian had agreed to a clause that prohibited filming during the Cheese performance)

One of the people he spit on was a very big fan of his, that has given him many props and accolades over the past year. How do you think he feels now?