Green Marketing Commons

Mastering the New Green Market - Part 5 - Breaking out of the Pack

Fri, 06 Mar 2009 16:47:00 PST

In recent posts, we explored strategies you can use to adapt your marketing to the new marketplace. These strategies are generic — any company can use them. But general solutions can take you only so far. To break out of the pack, you need unique strategies that no one else can copy because they derive from your unique qualities and situation.

Where can you find such strategies? If only you had some resource to turn to, which understood everything about your company and its market. A resource with vast strategic insight, creativity and energetic drive, that you could harness on behalf of your business right now. A supercomputer that could not only crunch the data but deliver strategic solutions. If only you had... your brain.

Yes, I know you're straining your brain already to cope with the current crisis. That may itself be part of the problem — but you probably already know this, too. You may know all about the "relaxation response" and how relieving stress can free the brain to perform at a higher level.

But I'm not talking about the relaxation response. Not primarily. I am, however, talking about recent research by the man who discovered the relaxation response, Herbert Benson. The relaxation response was just the beginning. In The Break-out Principle: How to activate the natural trigger that maximizes creativity, athletic performance, productivity, and personal well-being, Benson details steps to develop creative strategic solutions to challenging situations, time after time after time.

At Amazon, the book gets mixed reviews — some raves, but also some who say there's little new here, it's all been said before. Of course! If this is how creative breakthroughs happen, humanity wouldn't have gotten this far without it — and neither would you.

Almost certainly, you have your own ways to tap into your creative potential. It's how you built your business or career. But you may not understand the full range of principles involved, or the practices you can draw upon to get results systematically — in business as well as personal life, for groups as well as individuals. It's a master key that opens countless doors.

So when you read it, don't sell yourself short with a swift, smug dismissal. Grasp the whole system — for example, the way to select people for a "breakthrough network" and the rules by which they should operate. The great thing is that at this difficult time, when money is so tight, The Breakout Principle is a way to further leverage the assets you already have — and assemblage of human brains — to answer your most urgent question: "What the heck should we do now?"

In the next few posts, we'll look at more of the books most useful to green marketers.

Keith Borden, Consultant
Brilliant Green Marketing

Mastering the New Green Market - Part 4 - Leveraging Barack Obama

Fri, 20 Feb 2009 15:20:00 PST

In our last post, we saw that one way to combat the shift in values during the recession is to move green benefits to the back of the list, to match the downshifted values of your customers. However, one "customer" who's moving green benefits to the front of the list is Barack Obama.

Of course, Obama is budget-constrained like the rest of us. But at least with regard to climate change, he clearly "gets it" on environmental issues.

On the campaign trail he spoke of alternative energy in relation to saving the planet.
One of his first actions as President was to cancel as many of Bush's anti-environmental policies as he could.
He put billions into the economic stimulus bill for clean energy and other environmental priorities.
His Energy Secretary is Steven Chu, a Nobel-Prize-winning physicist. (An Energy Secretary who actually understands energy! Imagine!)

As the stimulus money starts to flow, some of it may flow your way — either directly or indirectly. Obviously, this would be good for your business, and you would be wise to make moves to make it happen. Besides that, though, is there any way you could leverage Barack Obama?

Yes, there is. Obama legitimizes environmental concern. On election night, he said we face the challenge of "a planet in peril." And you can leverage that legitimacy in your marketing. "The president has said we face a planet in peril. Acme acne cream allows you to answer Obama's call to help, ensuring both a clearer face and a cleaner planet."

President Obama has called on all of us to help. He has said he can't solve the problems facing us alone. If you can position your products as part of the solution, then enlist the participation of your customers in answering that call, you can leverage Barack Obama to keep your turf green (environmentally and financially!) during this difficult economic dry spell.

Look for statements by the president about the environment that relate in some way to your own company's mission. (No doubt there will be many more as time goes on, so repeat your search every few months.) For example, search Google for:

+obama +environment
+obama +planet
+obama +green -dress -gown

Add keywords to your search that are pertinent to your own product areas. See if you can find quotations that you can work into your marketing. If you can help your customers join Obama's green team, you're doing everyone a favor. (As we say at Brilliant Green Marketing, "Better for the planet. Better for you. Brilliant.")

How else can you adapt your marketing to the new green market as it suddenly turns a dangerous dry brown? Read our next post to find out.

Keith Borden, Consultant
Brilliant Green Marketing

Mastering the New Green Market - Part 3 - Move Green Benefits to the Back

Sat, 14 Feb 2009 07:50:00 PST

In our last post, we explored how you might counter the economic downturn by reminding your market that collapses don't take turns — and the environmental crisis is as dire as ever. Getting this across with impact may help, but you can do more.

For example, try moving the green aspects of your products to the side or the back of the benefits list.

To you, the environmental benefits of your products might be their most important merits. These green benefits may be important to your customers, too, but in bad times they are less likely to be the most important benefits of your products. So if you've been leading with these benefits, move them alongside others. And if you were already presenting them alongside others, you might even want to move them to the back.

Being better for the planet is great. Indeed, it's crucial. But in hard times, emphasize instead those aspects of your products that are better for the customer as a separate individual, rather than as a member of society. (I emphasize "as a separate individual" because of the tragedy of the commons, which is precisely what we're up against here.)

Start with the assumption that, on the average, your customers' values will have shifted from green values toward money, from community values toward personal, and from long term toward short term. This suggests a hierarchy or sequence in which you should present benefits — tempered by how strong and direct a particular benefit is.

Your products are less expensive than alternatives, right off the shelf. (Lucky you!)
Your products are less expensive in the long run, because they last longer.
Your products are less expensive in the long run, because they use less energy, refills or other resources — they have a lower operating cost.
Your products are less expensive in the larger picture, because they render products in other categories unnecessary, or preserve other items or cause less damage.
Your products are safer or healthier for family and pets.
Your products other personal benefits, relative to competitor products or alternative ways of meeting the need.
Purchasing your products now will put in place a system your customers will want down the road, preventing the cost of starting over, or will keep in place a system already instituted.

The sequence here is not hard-and-fast, and the list is not complete, but you get the idea. The point is to rethink the competitive benefits of your products from the standpoint of a prospect customer who has come to feel that buying green is temporarily a luxury they may not be able to afford. Their attention will be more on costs and benefits to themselves rather than the planet — so show them advantages in terms of costs and benefits to themselves! Align the presentation of benefits with your customer's new priorities. It's as simple as that.

And what about the green benefits themselves, when you finally get to them on the list? How do you present them? Less as a reason to buy than as a reason to feel good about buying. "And oh, by the way, when you purchase Acme acne cream, you can feel good knowing that washing your face will put fewer toxins into the ocean that might ultimately poison the polar bears." (Adapt to your situation and work on the wording, but that's the attitude to convey.)

Does this offend your sensibilities of what's really important? Then get over it. First of all, if your customer's self-perceived needs are not important to you, you shouldn't be in business. But even from a green standpoint, this rearrangement of your benefits list — pushing green benefits towards the back — is not a betrayal of your own green values. Rather, it's currently your best way to serve and preserve them.

Our next post will explore further ways to sell green during the economic meltdown.

Keith Borden, Consultant
Brilliant Green Marketing

Mastering the New Green Market - Part 2 - Collapses Don't Take Turns

Fri, 06 Feb 2009 11:58:00 PST

In our last post, we saw that the economic downturn will make people less green -- in effect, at least — in their values and purchasing decisions. (Of course, when it comes to purchasing decisions, "in effect" is the reality.) This bad news is undoubtedly not news to you, but it may be helpful to have deeper insight into the psychodynamics behind it.

What can green marketers do about this? Before we can arrive at good strategies, we've got to hold fast to the right attitude. Sure, the situation we're facing is bad for green business. But what is green business? Why are you green in the first place? Early on, we defined "green" as better for the planet. That means that "less green" is worse for the planet.

That's where we need to keep our attention — in how we think, and especially in how we communicate. Nobody will care that your business is in trouble, but people still ought to care that their planet is in peril. Remind them of that, and you'll at least catch their ear.

Collapses don't take turns. Right now we are facing an economic collapse, but we were already facing an environmental collapse (climate, biodiversity, fisheries, forests, farmland — you know the list.) The environmental situation was dire a year ago. It was more dire six months ago. Is it any less dire now? Did the impending environmental collapse politely step aside to make room for the newly arrived economic collapse?

Of course not! Economic collapse may have shoved aside environmental collapse in people's minds, but it didn't shove it aside in the world "out there." So to the extent that people are now less green in their thinking, the economic collapse has caused their minds to become misaligned with reality. That's dangerous for anybody — including your customers.

In reality, we have not shifted from facing environmental collapse to facing economic collapse. We have shifted from facing environmental collapse to facing both environmental and economic collapse. The fact that the economic collapse is already upon us does not make the environmental collapse any less imminent. In fact, the environmental collapse is not "on its way" — it's already here. It's happening at this moment, on an enormous scale. It's just hidden behind an ever-shrinking facade of affluent appearances.

Nor is the environmental collapse separate from the economy. In the skyscraper of civilization, ecological services are the foundation and first three stories, the economy is floors four through ten, and all the rest of society is built up from there. When the foundation and first three floors crumble, what will happen to floors four and above? If bailing out the banks is hard, try bailing out the ocean!

Most informed people would still agree that saving the environment is important. But many would argue that fixing the economy is now more urgent. That's the cognitive error we as green marketers must strive to correct. One urgency has not displaced another; rather, the urgencies have multiplied. Unfortunately, the human mind does not easily comprehend multiple urgencies, but that's a reality our species must now outgrow — or else (as Hobbes put it) we'll soon return to a world where life is nasty, brutish and short.

In the end, even realizing all this, people may still make less green purchasing decisions due to budget constraints. But the first step in stemming the tide is to help them keep straight in their thinking. Keep them in touch with the planet. Let them feel its scream.

Is that all we can do to market green effectively in the new green market? No. Read our next post for more.

Keith Borden, Consultant
Brilliant Green Marketing

Mastering the New Green Market - Part 1 - The Green Wave hits the Economic Tsunami meets Barack Obama

Fri, 30 Jan 2009 16:57:00 PST

Three great forces are colliding at this moment in history. You, as a green marketer, are privileged to have even better than a ring-side seat to this spectacle. You're right in the middle of the smash-up! The three forces are these:

The Green Wave. In earlier posts, we've explored what the green wave is, how it arose, and why it's destined to keep on rising over the long haul. Briefly, it's a wave of public environmental concern in response to environmental problems. Environmental problems are bad and getting worse, and the green wave will grow in response.
The Economic Tsunami. Our last four posts explored what a company can do to revamp its marketing in the face of the recession. But how, specifically, will the economic tsunami impact the green wave? Last October, NPR's Sarah Gardner reported that in the view of environmentalist Ted Nordhaus, "The green bubble has burst." Understandable? Yes. Good? No! Not for green marketers or the planet!
Barack Obama. Obama may well be the first truly green president. He clearly recognizes the reality of global warming and the need to "save the planet." As much as politically possible, he's packing his economic stimulus package with green spending. And simply by winning in 2008, he reversed the anti-environmental climate that has infected Washington for so long. Will this be enough to counter the economic crash? Where does it leave green marketing?

The good news is that green values are now mainstream in America. You no longer have to battle to establish the importance of going green. Obama in the White House certifies that. But as people tighten their wallets, you need to establish the urgency — or better yet, give people ancillary reasons to buy from you now.

Three important principles come into play here. You're probably familiar with all of them, so I'll only link to the definitions and explanations.

Abraham Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs. As economic clouds crowd in, people hunker down — and slide down the "needs" scale from more global, idealistic and altruistic levels to a more self-centered, survivalist orientation. This will not necessarily diminish people's green values, but it will backburner them, temporarily giving them a lower priority — which does, in effect, diminish them.
The Tragedy of the Commons. When people perceive a conflict between doing what's best for the planet and doing what's best for themselves — and especially when that perceived conflict is magnified by budget constraints and sliding down the need's hierarchy — they will rationalize choosing person over planet on the basis that their choice will have little impact on the planet but much impact on their own welfare. Individually, they'll be right.
Cognitive Dissonance. When people experience a conflict between their consciously held beliefs and values and their actual decisions and actions — for example, green people making non-green purchases — they experience psychological tension that may be distinctly uncomfortable. A common defense against this discomfort is to repress half the equation, "forgetting" either their green attitudes or their non-green actions.

The net effect of this "terrible trio" is to make people, in effect, less green. But they may not want to admit it, even to themselves, which makes it harder to confront head-on but just might give you a bit of sideways leverage. And let's be clear: we are just talking here about people's purchasing psychology, quite apart from their actual financial purchasing ability.

Bottom line: green marketing just got tougher. But you knew that. The question is, how do you deal with it? Read our next post to find out!

Keith Borden, Consultant
Brilliant Green Marketing

Making the Best of the Economic Downturn - Part 4 - Room for Improvement is Good.

Fri, 23 Jan 2009 17:28:00 PST

In our last post, we suggested visiting your own website as well as those of your competitors, "shopping around" with the pretended intent of making a purchase. What draws you? What stops you? What gives you confidence? What confuses or repels you? What's missing, that's needed in order to reel you in and close the deal?

Now do the same with other "touch points" of customer contact: print collateral, sales presentations, customer service, technical support. Walk into a store. Whatever applies to your particular company. Again, enlist others, to supplement your efforts or where it is not practical to do this yourself. (For example, if Steve Jobs tried to pose as a naïve Apple customer, he just might be recognized.)

This kind of survey is something you should do from time to time in any case, but especially when there is a significant change in the marketing environment. And an economic downturn is certainly that — and in many ways, simply that. A change. Be sure to conduct the survey with a customer mindset appropriate to the change.

This exercise will almost certainly give you a bunch of ideas for improvements — or at least a list of things that need improving. That's good. Whenever I don't get the results that I want, I review my strategies for obtaining those results. I only get worried if I don't find room for improvement (but fortunately, I always find it). Room for improvement is good.

The first things to change, of course, are the obvious problems. But then go beyond that, and ask how in these tight times you could make your company the obvious choice over your competitors. In other words, think strategically. Ask, answer, and act.

This economic downturn could be an economic upturn for you.

Or rather, it could be an economic upturn for some companies. But you're a green marketer. What difference does that make? What impact will the economic downturn have on the green wave, and green marketing — and the future of the planet?

In our next post, we'll begin examining these issues.

Keith Borden, Consultant
Brilliant Green Marketing

Making the Best of the Economic Downturn - Part 3 - Shop in Your Customer's Shoes

Fri, 16 Jan 2009 17:24:00 PST

In our last post, we said that your best response to the new marketing landscape — depressed economy, reduced purchasing, more careful customers and more timid competitors -- is to take proactive measures to ensure that when those more careful customers compare you with your more timid competitors, you'll be their supplier of choice.

But how can you know what proactive measures to take? Put yourself in the place of a potential customer. One who has a need for something in your category -- a strong enough need for them to make a purchase despite the fact that times are tight. Because times are tight, they'll be more careful in their selection. They'll be less likely to shop where they've shopped before. Hoping to minimize costs, they'll take a fresh look at the field.

That is, they'll take a fresh look at your competitors — and you. (This is true of new customers, your competitors' customers and your current customers.) When they make this comparison, what will they be looking for? And what will they find?

Very likely, their search will begin (and perhaps end) on the Web. So first make sure that one of the things they find is your website. There's an old saying, out of sight, out of mind. Today's version is, out of Google, out of business.

Amazingly, considering all the SEO, marketing and web design firms as well as business writers out there, this phrase is not in Google at the time of writing (October, 2008). This is proof that with all the myriad marketing messages pouring out each day, someone with originality and insight can still say something new and noteworthy.

Okay, so they find your website, and they find the websites of your competitors. What will your competitors' websites look like? Probably pretty much the way they do now, except perhaps for lower prices and special offers. As we said, most of your competitors will probably try to "wait it out." The more severe the downturn, the more likely they'll do nothing. They'll wait for the good times to somehow return.

But the good times may not return to them. Not if you grab their customers now. And it's much easier to be competitive now. When the market is hot, it's hard to out-maneuver competitors because you don't know what they're about to do. Everyone is making moves. But when the market is down, most companies go into slow motion, so if you don't, you've got the dance floor to yourself and can dance circles around your competition.

So imagine yourself as that careful customer, with a tight budget and a strong need. With that mindset, go to the website of each of your competitors, and also your own. Shop in your customer's shoes. It's a good idea to enlist others in this also, who may see with less sophisticated, less biased eyes — people without your insider's perspective. Ideally, you can enlist people who are similar to your customers, if not actual customers.

At each site, "shop around" with the pretended intent of making a purchase. What draws you? What stops you? What gives you confidence? What confuses or repels you? What's missing, that's needed in order to reel you in and close the deal?

And then — well, see our next post.

Keith Borden, Consultant
Brilliant Green Marketing

Making the Best of the Economic Downturn - Part 2 - Be Proactive

Fri, 09 Jan 2009 17:22:00 PST

In our last post, we said that that if the depressed economy shrinks your market, you may need to retool your products and prices towards the downscaled values of the marketplace. But is there a way to turn the situation around and use it to actually get ahead?

What counts is not just the size of the market, but your market share. Unless the market shrinks to zero, there will still be customers buying in your category, and even at your price/quality level. These customers must either buy from you or your competitors. And while the pie may be smaller, the real question is how much of it will be yours.

To answer that, we must look at your competitors, because that's exactly what the customers will do. How will your competitors respond to the economic downturn?

Chances are, they'll respond like most companies in most downturns. They'll tighten their belt and try to wait it out, just as you might have thought of doing. In other words, they'll cut back on spending wherever they can. One of the first areas for the axe to fall is typically marketing.

Obviously, this is not good marketing strategy — because it's not a strategy! It's not a creative response to a challenge — it's cowering. It's hunkering under a bush till the rain stops. It's reactive, not proactive. Since this is probably how most of your competitors will respond to the economic downturn, it's actually a marvelous opportunity for you.

If marketing is the first function to feel the axe, this just shows a lack of confidence that the marketing is doing any good in the first place. (That may be true — which is a whole other discussion.)

But marketing (including sales) is the only function whose purpose is direct generation of revenue. So when revenue becomes a challenge, the answer is not less marketing but better marketing, strategically targeted to the new situation.

If you separate sales and marketing, consider: in basketball, even a star scorer needs teammates to guard, pass the ball and set up the shot. Likewise, marketing's job is to guard, pass the ball and set up the shot for sales.

The question is not whether you need marketing, but whether your marketing is doing its job. When times are tough, you need effective marketing more than ever.

Looking at the new landscape — depressed economy, reduced purchasing, more careful customers and more timid competitors, what's your best response? Take proactive measures to ensure that when those more careful customers compare you with your more timid competitors, you'll be their supplier of choice.

But how can you know what proactive measures to take? See our next post.

Keith Borden, Consultant
Brilliant Green Marketing

Making the Best of the Economic Downturn - Part 1 - Leverage the Change

Fri, 02 Jan 2009 17:19:00 PST

We've just finished a series of posts on the green wave. But even as I was writing them, the green wave was colliding with another mighty wave, the current economic crash.

What does the economic downturn mean for green marketers? There are two parts to the answer, because of the split personality of these curious professionals. Green marketers are green marketers, and also green marketers. And yet they are always both at once — they must market green. But economy impacts the two halves differently.

So let's first see how the current economic climate affects us as marketers. Here, we're in the same boat with all other marketers at this moment in history. Then we'll explore the difference that green makes in our situation. (It's big.)

So... we know which way the economic winds are blowing. They're blowing down — although we don't yet know how far. The question is, how should your business respond?

The first thing to remember is that the winds are blowing down for almost everyone — your company, your customers and also your competitors. You are not the target — the change is across the board. So you need to respond proactively to outmaneuver your competitors in winning customers during this economic downturn.

From that standpoint, at least, the downturn is not bad news. It's not good news, either. It's just a change. And as business guru Peter Drucker once said, the job of business leaders is to "exploit change" — that is, to leverage it to your advantage. So rather than thinking of this as "bad times" during which you need to tighten your belt, look at it as a market change to leverage competitively with the resources you have available.

How do you leverage an economic downturn? Respond to the total situation. The cash & credit crunch is only part of it. More important is how your marketplace will change in response. So begin by asking, "How will my customers respond? How will my competitors respond?" Then you can craft your own response to leverage their responses.

Your customers — and, if you're selling B2B, their customers — will likely be cutting back. But they still have needs. In some cases, they'll be putting off the fulfillment of those needs, or cutting down on quantity, and there may be nothing you can do about that (although lower-priced models and extended payment plans can help).

In other cases, customers will still make purchases to fulfill their needs, but they'll tend to do it more selectively. Or more accurately, they'll shift their selection criteria. They may downgrade their quality standards in favor of lower price, for instance, and shift from a focus on long-term value to immediate cost. And their values will shift away from luxury or "frills" towards practicality, the basics.

All of this may indeed shrink your market for the time being, and there may be nothing to be done about it, other than retooling your products and prices towards the downscaled values of the marketplace. But if you stop there, you've left out the most important part of the picture.

What's that? See our next post.

Keith Borden, Consultant
Brilliant Green Marketing

The Green Wave, Part 10 - Other Contributors to the Green Wave

Fri, 26 Dec 2008 17:14:00 PST

Over the last nine posts, we looked at several strands which together weave the green wave, today's growing concern for the environment. I selected those aspects of the green wave which are most useful for understanding why it arose when it did, why it didn't arise sooner, and why we can't count on it to continue without interruption.

This selection of topics was strategic , but there's more to the story Before moving on, I want to mention some other factors behind today's green wave.

the environmental awareness, principles & track record of indigenous people around the world, and their contribution to the green wave
the development of green principles & practices in the East and the contribution of these to the green movement
the complexities of the relationship of humans to nature and the wilderness in the West throughout history
early forerunners of the environmental movement in the West
the social justice movement, which goes back millennia
the increasing convergence of the social justice movement with the environment movement

We'll be expanding on some of these down the road, but they at least deserve mention now as important contributors to the green wave.

Right now, though, the green wave is crashing into another wave — the Great Economic Downturn. In our next post we'll begin discussing what this means for green marketers.

Keith Borden, Consultant
Brilliant Green Marketing

The Green Wave, Part 9 - Green Marketers and the Green Revolution

Fri, 19 Dec 2008 13:06:00 PST

The Green Revolution

In our last post, we saw how precarious the funding for green science is over the long term. We also saw that sustained, systemic action — based on sound science — is necessary for effective environmental action on a scale that can save the planet.

What does this mean? The green wave is not enough! The green wave is a wave of environmental concern, but we need a green revolution of effective environmental action on a coordinated, global scale. This requires sustained public awareness and understanding of green issues, and also sustained public valuing of the science needed to enable that understanding and support effective solutions.

Erratic attention, strangled science, stop-gap funding, and on-again, off-again crisis responses will not solve our environmental problems. The green wave is based on a recognition of the fragility and vulnerability of the environment, but the green wave itself is fragile and vulnerable.

The green revolution is even more fragile and vulnerable. It depends on sustaining the green wave of environmental concern in the face of ongoing distraction and sustaining public valuing of environmental science in the face of an economic downturn. What a sales job that is! Who could possible pull it off?

Green Marketers to the Rescue!

Well, who knows better than professional marketers how to keep capturing attention to the same old thing in countless new ways? That's part of a marketer's job. Nobody is more capable of keeping green issues — and the understanding and values surrounding them — alive in the public mind over the long haul.

Sustained, systemic action is necessary — and that requires ongoing stimulation of public attention, by calculation as well as crisis. Now, what would you call ongoing, calculated stimulation of public attention to maintain environmental concern and drive effective environmental actions? Green marketing!

In other words, sustaining the green wave comes down to green marketing. We as green marketers are to a significant degree keepers and stewards of the green wave. It is a great responsibility and a noble calling.

So now marketing professionals must take the skills we've learned over a century of practice and apply them not just in service of our company and customers, but also to sustain the green wave itself. Green marketers, arise! It's time to prove our worth to Mother Earth.

Keith Borden, Consultant
Brilliant Green Marketing

The Green Wave, Part 8 - Sustaining the Green Wave

Fri, 12 Dec 2008 11:22:00 PST

Attention Deficit Disaster

In our last post, you saw — unless you are very unusual — that you can't hold your attention steady for a minute. We also said that to stabilize our species in sustainability would require sustained attention by the public for a century. We asked, if attention can't be sustained for sixty seconds, what could possibly sustain it for a hundred years?

The obvious answer is — nothing. And if that's the case, we're doomed. So let's see if we can find a non-obvious answer.

Attention is drawn by change. Immediate change. Change now. That's true of individual human attention, and also of the baby bottle from which we all nurse, media attention. Environmental changes are monumental, but for precisely that reason they are generally not fast — at least on the scale that captures human attention.

For example, global warming should register in human consciousness as a HUGE change. And when we hear about it or think about it, it does, and we realize it requires a huge response. But as we continue to hear about it, it sounds more and more like NO change. Even the weekly ice-sheet collapse soon sounds like just more of the same.

And then our attention shifts. "If the economy tanks, I'll lose my job." "Who's winning American Idol?" Attention — how fickle it is!

From the standpoint of long-term planetary health and human survival, nothing is more urgent than green issues. But from the standpoint of human attention — in the face of war, recession and football — nothing may seem less urgent than green issues. The ark which must save our species (and other species too) floats on the green wave, which is fed by the fickle waters of human attention. If those waters change their course, the green wave subsides, and the human experiment fails.

Of course, after each time that the green wave subsides, it will arise again as another environmental crises hit us. But then each time, it will be swamped again by boredom, distraction, attention fatigue and other personal and community crises — for example, the current economic meltdown. So the wave will rise and fall. Even if it grows overall, it will grow unevenly, in fits and starts.

Systemic Action And Science

This will cause the kind of erratic response that is our habit, causing both inefficiency and ineffectiveness. That will be compounded by competition for resources. As the 21st century unfolds, and crises increasingly crash upon us on all fronts, there will be insufficient funds to deal effectively with each of them symptomatically in a crisis-response level.

Resources will be sufficient if — and only if — problems are dealt with rationally, strategically, systematically and systemically at a root-cause level, for two reasons:

Proactive preventive action is more cost-effective than reactive crisis response.
Even though each problem has multiple causes, most of our major problems have several causes in common.

Unfortunately, everything in our history, habits and nature suggests that in the long haul, over the course of this century, we will not achieve the sustained public attention required for this rational, strategic, systematic and systemic approach, but will instead continue to respond with erratic crisis management. If so, we're sunk.

But it's even worse than that. Dealing with problems rationally, strategically, systematically and systemically requires more than just sustained attention on the problems from an action point of view. It also requires sustained attention from an analytic point of view, in terms of sustained, well-funded scientific research.

Changing a situation strategically requires understanding its causes. Otherwise, we're just flailing in the dark. Effective environmental action — whether by government, industry or individuals must be based on good science, good sources and good sense.

Unfortunately, the science on which effective green action depends is also at risk. In fact, at this very moment it's under heavy fire.. Republican presidential candidate John McCain rails repeatedly against "pork" and "earmarks" in the federal budget, but there is one example he pulls out almost every time to show how ludicrous our budgetary waste has become.

John McCain: We're never going to spend three million dollars again to study the DNA of bears in Montana. I don't know if that was a paternity issue or a criminal issue, but it's not going to happen again!

He makes it sound so silly. Bear DNA in Montana! But this is not a paternity issue or a criminal issue. It's science regarding an environmental issue. And it's McCain's favorite example of the kind of "pork" he'd totally eliminate from the federal budget!

If he were to state the facts of the case and argue it on its merits, that would at least be honest, but it's revealing that he feels no need to do so, and disturbing that he's right. As I write this, it seems likely that McCain will lose the election. But the very fact that he can win cheers again and again with this insidious line — playing upon public ignorance — shows how precarious the funding for green science is over the long term.

This is not just serious. It's ominous. Poisonous! See our next post for the antidote — and how it involves you.

Keith Borden, Consultant
Brilliant Green Marketing

The Green Wave, Part 7 - Is the Green Wave Sustainable?

Fri, 05 Dec 2008 13:32:00 PST

In our last post, we saw why the green wave — a wave of growing environmental concern — arose in the late 20th century, not sooner or later. The 29th-day dynamic which we explained may make us feel that the green wave is inevitable, leading us to take it for granted.

But we shouldn't. The green wave is all about sustainability, but is it sustainable itself?

The green wave is fed by two converging trends — rising awareness of green issues, and rising severity of the issues themselves (led by global warming in both cases). These trends are not independent — the second (severity) feeds the first (awareness) through drawing increased attention to green issues.

If these were the only dynamics operating in today's world, the green wave would indeed continue to grow inexorably. And in the long run it will, because human activities will continue to make environmental problems worse, and only an extreme change of course can begin to gradually make them better. So on the surface, it seems the dynamic we have outlined will continue — worsening environmental problems will draw more attention to green issues, leading to greater concern — an ever-growing green wave. And that sounds great for green companies!

But notice that it all depends on a sustained and growing attention paid to green issues. Worsening green problems will indeed draw the public's attention, but so will other things, like war, terror attacks, economic problems, personal financial struggles, and the deliberate distractions of sports, celebrity and entertainment (to name just a few). In this ongoing battle for attention, what will win?

Attention is indeed the ultimate battleground. Take a minute now — exactly a minute, timed by your watch — to keep your attention fully on your watch. Specifically, on the seconds as they tick by. Don't let your attention stray — and notice how far along in the minute you are when another thought intrudes, as it almost surely will.

Well? How did you do? How many seconds did you last?

If you can't keep your attention on your watch for a minute, what will keep the public's attention on green issues for a century? That's literally the question of the century, because it will probably take about a hundred years to stabilize humanity in sustainability. So that's the question on which our future depends.

The question of the century! Read our next two posts for the surprising answer.

Keith Borden, Consultant
Brilliant Green Marketing

The Green Wave, Part 6 - Hitting the Limits to Growth

Fri, 28 Nov 2008 17:33:00 PST

In our last post, we said there are two reasons why the green wave — a wave of growing environmental concern — is hitting us now, rather than sooner or later. The first was the 29th-day principle of exponential growth, which we described last time.

Today we discuss the second reason: the combination of population growth, technological growth and economic growth over the past couple of centuries has created a 29th-day situation for many environmental issues.

Among the first to recognize this, with an emphasis on resource depletion, was Club of Rome authors Donella Meadows, Jorgen Randers and Dennis Meadows in their 1972 Limits to Growth. The specific numbers they plugged into their equations have needed repeated revision — as they themselves expected — but their basic argument still stands. Their calculations, based on published resource estimates at the time, predicted that we would soon start running out of several key resources.

Here's why it's happening now. Any aspect of the environment — oil reserves, atmospheric carbon, fish in the sea — exists in a finite quantity. In some cases (iron deposits, diamonds) the quantity is relatively static, consisting of material that just stays there (until we remove it). In other cases (river water, forests) the quantity can vary and is maintained by a dynamic balance of input and output. In either case, if humans alter this aspect of the environment at a rate which accelerates exponentially, it will approach its limit in a curve that follows the pattern of the 29th day.

Over the past 300 years, the combination of industrialism, industrial agriculture and scientific medicine kicked human population growth into exponential overdrive. Simultaneously, especially over the past century, commercialism, consumerism and advancing technology also drove per capita consumption exponentially.

Of course, everything consumed is made of materials extracted from the environment, and all of its byproducts eventually return to the environment. So the exponential growth of both population and per capita consumption meant that the total human impact on the environment — impact/person x number of people — grew explosively during the 20th century.

This made it inevitable that in terms of the 29th-day principle, a whole host of environmental issues — from wilderness to resources to pollution — would reach the late 20s of their 30-day count during the 20th century. It's no accident that the pioneers of environmentalism — Teddy Roosevelt, John Muir, Rachel Carson and so many others, on issue after issue — all sounded the alarm within the last 100 years.

The pioneers, of course, sounded the alarm around day 27, not day 29. And so they were often ignored. They were not the green wave, but they initiated it. And as the century rolled on, and issue after issue hit day 29, it grew to a mighty swell.

So what day is it today? It varies with the issue — for some it's just day 27, for others it's early 30 — but there's one thing we can be sure of. The 21st century is crunch time. As world population continues its mighty heave, while simultaneously capitalist commerce and consumerist culture sweep across the planet, we face an avalanche of 30th-day catastrophes that even today few can conceive.

But at least people are at last waking up. Finally, in the nick of time, we can count on the green wave to save us. Or can we? Read our next post.

Keith Borden, Consultant
Brilliant Green Marketing

The Green Wave, Part 5 - The 29th Day

Fri, 21 Nov 2008 17:32:00 PST

In our last post we asked, if advanced thinkers took our war against nature for granted just a century ago, why have we come so far so fast? Why is the green wave washing over us now?

There are two reasons. The is the 29th-day principle, and if you're reading this blog you've probably heard of it. Briefly, a lake is invaded by a water weed that floats on its surface. This weed grows so fast that each day, it doubles the area it covers. In 30 days, it covers the entire lake. The question is, on what day does it cover half the lake?

If we haven't heard the story before, we may feel intuitively that the weed must cover half the lake somewhere around day 15 or 20. But of course, it's day 29. Then on day 30, it doubles again to cover the whole lake.

Let's look at how much of the lake's surface is covered on any given day, starting at the end and working backwards.

Day	% Covered
30	100%
29	50%
28	25%
27	12.5%
26	6.3%
25	3.1%
—
20	less than 0.1%
—
16	less than 0.001%
—
13	less than 0.0001%
—
10	less than 0.00001%

On day 28, the weed covers a quarter of the lake; on day 27, an eighth; and on day 26, a 16th. Just 5 days before the lake is completely covered, the weed covers barely 3% of it. Two-thirds of the way through the invasion (day 20), you might not spot the weed if you tried — it covers less than one tenth of 1% of the lake.

This is called exponential growth. It's a mathematics many of us in the green movement have become familiar with, but most of the population haven't. But they'd better get used to it fast, because it applies to a host of environmental problems. And precisely because it does, these problems are about to slam into us hard.

Why is exponential growth so insidious? Think about the weeds in the lake. Suppose you use the lake for fishing, and for that you need the lake to have a surface that's mostly clear. It doesn't have to be completely clear. A few patches of weeds here and there are fine — in fact, they're to be expected. All you care about is that enough of the surface is clear so you can fish. On that basis, when do you become concerned about the weeds?

It depends on whether you're watching the weeds or the lake. If you happen to be a botanist, and you happen to notice the weed early on, and you happen to check it the next day and the next, and you happen to measure the extent of its growth each day, and on that basis you happen to compute its growth rate, and then you happen to extrapolate it forward a few weeks, you might become concerned about the weed early in the process. But notice how many "happen to's" there were in that sentence. And every single one of them is unlikely!

If what you care about is fishing, you won't notice the weed early on even if you happen to see it. Your attention won't be on the weed but on the lake. (Actually, it won't even be on the lake, but on the fish.) So you won't notice the advance of the weed but the loss of clear surface. At what point will you become concerned?

Not when the lake is 1% covered (day 24). Not when it's 10% covered (day 27) — that's when you might actually first pay attention to the weed, considering it a minor nuisance. But on day 28 — with the lake's surface 25% gone — you'd realize there was a problem. On day 29 — with the lake's surface 50% gone — you would convene a committee to look into the matter. One day later, wham! It's too late. Your lake is gone.

But what has this to do with the green wave? We said there are two reasons why the green wave is washing over us now. The 29th-day principle is the first. For the second — and how it relates to the 29th day — read our next post.

Keith Borden, Consultant
Brilliant Green Marketing

Categories: 29th Day | Exponential Growth | Green | Green Wave

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