What about you?  Have you resisted setting financial goals because you don’t know where to start?  Let us know what you find most challenging about setting and achieving your financial goals.

Watch us on WDBJ7 discussing our new seminars

On Thursday, November 17th at 6:00 p.m. Connie Guelich will present Navigating Turbulent Markets™ at our Roanoke office.  This presentation shows why Buy and Hold is not working and why volatility is likely to continue for several more years.  Connie will explain how losses really impact a portfolio, why traditional approaches fail. She will present a proprietary 5-Step process to navigate the turbulence and manage risk in the market.  You won’t want to miss this timely market briefing.  This is the last presentation for 2011.

Workshop:  Navigating Turbulent Markets
Date:  Thursday, November 17, 2011
Time:  6:00 p.m.
Location:  Guelich Capital Management LLC
1401 Franklin Road
Roanoke, VA

Call us at 540-772-4545 for details and to reserve your seat.

On Thursday, October 20th at 6:00 p.m. Connie Guelich will present Navigating Turbulent Markets™ at our Roanoke office. This presentation shows why the market has been different since 2000 and why volatility is likely to continue for several more years. Connie will explain a 5 Step process to navigate the turbulence and manage risk in your account. You won’t want to miss this timely market briefing.

Workshop: Navigating Turbulent Markets
Date: Thursday, October 20, 2011
Time: 6:00 p.m.
Location: Guelich Capital Management LLC
1401 Franklin Road
Roanoke, VA

Call us at 540-772-4545 for details and to reserve your seat.

Managing your own 401k account involves several challenging decisions and can be overwhelming for many people.  401k vendors and internet sites offer 401k guidance and usually ask about a dozen questions and then viola you have a pie chart.  How has the pie chart worked for you?  If you are watching your 401k balance decline month after month, you may need a different approach.

Our advisors offer a no obligation 401k consultation.  You will be asked to provide a copy of your company retirement plan menu and your current holdings.  Then you will learn about options for managing your 401k based on your own plan and goals for retirement.

Do you understand the matching formula in your plan?  Are you maximizing your plan to receive all that your employer is prepared to contribute on your behalf?

An often neglected area of this important benefit includes your beneficiary designation.  In addition to making wise investment fund elections, you will learn about how your plan assets will pass at your death and what you should do to make certain your own wishes are carried out.  According to Ed Slott, a certified public accountant in New York and recognized retirement expert, most of the wealth in America ends up in 401ks and IRAs.  Ed says, “What most people don’t realize is it’s surrounded by this complex labyrinth of rules.  When key questions are not asked, people make mistakes, and many times it involves their life savings.”

If your 401k is one of your largest investment assets, and you are concerned about past performance and want to avoid more of the same in the future, call us today for your personal 401k consultation.  540-772-4545

Workshop: Navigating Turbulent Markets
Date: Thursday, September 15, 2011
Time: 6:00 PM
Location: Guelich Capital Management LLC, Roanoke, Virginia

Call us at 540-772-4545 for details and to reserve your seat.

Coupled with the pain and the anguish over what happened that fateful day, I am filled with pride in our people and pride in our country. I recall how Americans all over this grand country pulled together to help the victims and their families. I recall members of Congress standing on the steps of our Capitol and singing “God Bless America”! I recall memorial services in the National Cathedral and around the country. For a short time it was acceptable to speak the name of God and pray in public, and encourage others to pray for our safety and the healing of America. Americans saluted our flag with passion and conviction.

Yes, it is good to pause and reflect, and we dare not forget what happened that day. We can’t forget because our lives changed forever. There are reminders every time we travel, every time we enter a public event where our bags are searched and our bodies scanned. But as we remember the tragedy, we must focus on the lessons learned that day.

We learned that Americans are still true to our heritage. Americans find strength and unity in adversity, Americans rise to every challenge no matter how great, and Americans never, never, never give up. The world will be watching on September 11, 2011 when the National September 11 Memorial Plaza opens on the site of the former World Trade Center complex as a tribute to our horrific loss. In September 2012 the Memorial Museum will open to the public. The Memorial Museum will include a Wall of Faces with photographs of the nearly 3,000 victims, to communicate the scale of the human loss that day. The message to the world is that human life is precious and valued in America. Four new towers are rising in the plaza to show the world that America never, never, never gives up.

As you remember on this tenth anniversary, I encourage you to focus on the lessons we have learned from adversity. Focus on the values that have made America great and look to the future. America’s greatest resource is her people, strong, generous, compassionate, innovative, determined and tenacious. America’s greatest days are still ahead!

~ Read more about naming a trust as an IRA beneficiary

*Call us with questions.

On Tuesday, the 9th, the Fed released a statement saying that the committee expects a slower pace of recovery over the coming quarters and it expects unemployment to decline only gradually.  As a result, the board agreed to “keep the fed funds rate exceptionally low at least until mid 2013”.   The market had a hard time deciding whether to go up or down after the news.  Looking back over the entire week, the market was a rollercoaster ride as buyers and sellers battled it out, but it closed on Friday, the 12th, close to its high for the week.

There is a strong probability of a stock market bounce in the short term because the market dropped so far so fast.  But, technical indicators are favoring other asset classes rather than stocks right now.  Our plan is to use any bounce to reduce our equity holdings and shift to areas that are more favorable in the short term.  At the same time, we are watching equities closely to see which sectors hold up the best against the downward pressure.  Times like these are when future leading stocks start to emerge and build the constructive bases necessary for future gains.  These strong stocks will form our new inventory.

The economic news is gloomy; however, the stock market is a leading indicator.  It will change before economic news changes.  The market has been moving sideways since May searching for direction.  The events of the past two weeks have caused extreme volatility, but the market anticipated this news for a few months.  The market finds a bottom when everything seems to be the most pessimistic, and it takes off before most investors expect.  The key is to be prepared for the next rally with a strong inventory of leading stocks and to have enough cash available to take advantage of the opportunities that are sure to come.

This report is a publication of Guelich Capital Management LLC, a registered investment advisor.  Information presented is believed to be factual and up-to-date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed.  All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change.

“The Debt Ceiling Crisis” has taken center stage in the last few weeks as Congress and the President are unable to come together on a fix for the economy.  Politicians and the media have spread fear and panic regarding the impact on financial markets if a timely agreement is not reached and every day that goes by the pressure mounts.

Two basic threats have emerged from the current crisis.  Threat #1 is that the U.S. will default on its debt if Congress doesn’t increase the debt limit.  Threat #2 is that the U.S. may lose its AAA credit rating on U.S. Treasuries.  Default is not likely as all sides realize this must not happen.  However, a reduction in our credit rating is possible unless Congress and the President demonstrate a serious effort to curb spending and balance the budget.  At least one rating agency has said we must cut $4 trillion out of the budget in addition to preventing default, and there isn’t a plan on the table that will cut the budget by $4 trillion.  A downgrade from AAA to AA is a real possibility at this time.

There is so much noise and you don’t know what a politician has said, even after he says it.  The market is generally far more honest.  While it would be great to be able to accurately predict the outcome of this conundrum, perspective may be more helpful than prediction right now.  The market has been digesting the debt ceiling issue for weeks, if not months.  During this time it has traded in a 10% range which is not indicative of panic.   The important issue in addressing your investment portfolio is to have a plan to manage risk.

• Know what you will do if the markets react positively to the outcome.
• Know what you will do if stocks decline, interest rates rise and bond values drop.

Recognize what you cannot control and what you can control.

• You cannot control Washington, the media, or the market’s reaction to either one.
• You can control your exposure to the market.

In our firm, we make decisions about how much market exposure to hold in a portfolio by focusing on indicators based on price movement.  This is objective, unemotional input as compared to news and the talking heads.  We don’t make decisions based on the emotion of the day, but rather we adapt portfolios as the indicators change.  We always determine the risk we are willing to take when we purchase a position for our portfolios and we monitor that risk until we sell the position.

Because we have a well-thought-out plan to manage risk, we are prepared to execute that plan objectively no matter what happens in Washington next week.

This report is a publication of Guelich Capital Management LLC, a registered investment advisor.  Information presented is believed to be factual and up-to-date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed.  All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change.

Since that change in status, the major indexes continue to waffle back and forth as if treading water. The Dow and the S&P 500 are both down about 3.5% from their April 29th high. That may not seem like a lot to be concerned about, but it is the subtle changes under the surface that cause us to be cautious. We have observed that on days when the market is up, trading volume is low, and on days when the market is down volume is high. Institutional investors move markets and when they are unloading stocks it is a cautionary sign.

Finally, this week sector rotation is at work. A few months ago, technology, oil, agriculture, machinery and tools and commodity related stocks were leading the pack. Now the stocks showing strength are in defensive sectors such as medical, utilities, and consumer staples.

We are not predicting a further decline. Predictions are a dime a dozen out there so you don’t need to hear predictions from us. Rather than predict, we prefer to follow the market. We have confidence in our indicators and we believe there is evidence that caution is prudent right now and we are watching the market very closely.

Our strategy for the past few weeks is to protect accounts by increasing cash levels. We do this by taking profits as well as selling positions that are exhibiting weakness on a relative basis. The added cash provides a cushion against the possibility of further price decline in the market, and it also gives us money to buy when opportunities present. We believe it is too early to buy back in right now. When buyers return to the market and demand is in control it will be time to add new positions for the next rally.

This report is a publication of Guelich Capital Management, LLC. Information presented is believed to be factual and up-to-date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change.