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            <title>Weekly CFO Buy Highlights: Invesco Mortage Capital Inc., Methode Electronics Inc. ...</title>
            <link>http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=59941</link>
            <description><![CDATA[According to <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/InsiderBuy.php">GuruFocus Insider Data</a>, the largest CFO buys during the past week were Invesco Mortage Capital Inc., Methode Electronics Inc., Martin Midstream Partners L.P. Ltd. Part, Chesapeake Utilities Corp., and Tyler Technologies Inc. <br />
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<span style="font-size: 14px"><strong> Invesco Mortage Capital Inc. (<a href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?symbol=IVR">IVR</a>): CFO Donald R Ramon Bought 4,000 Shares </strong></span><br />
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CFO of Invesco Mortage Capital Inc. (<a href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?symbol=IVR">IVR</a>) Donald R Ramon bought 4,000 shares on 07/01/2009 at an average price of $20. . <br />
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<span style="color: green"><strong>Buy:</strong></span> CEO & President <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/InsiderBuy.php?insider=King+Richard+J."> Richard J. King </a> bought 15,000 shares of IVR stock on 07/01/2009 at the average price of $20; the price of the stock has decreased by 1.75% since. <span style="color: green"><strong>Buy:</strong></span> Director <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/InsiderBuy.php?insider=Kelley+Karen+Dunn"> Karen Dunn Kelley </a> bought 5,000 shares of IVR stock on 07/01/2009 at the average price of $20; the price of the stock has decreased by 1.75% since. <span style="color: green"><strong>Buy:</strong></span> CIO <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/InsiderBuy.php?insider=Anzalone+John"> John Anzalone </a> bought 2,000 shares of IVR stock on 07/01/2009 at the average price of $20; the price of the stock has decreased by 1.75% since. <span style="color: green"><strong>Buy:</strong></span> Director <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/InsiderBuy.php?insider=WILLIAMS+NEIL"> Neil Williams </a> bought 5,000 shares of IVR stock on 07/01/2009 at the average price of $20; the price of the stock has decreased by 1.75% since. <span style="color: green"><strong>Buy:</strong></span> Director <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/InsiderBuy.php?insider=Day+John"> John Day </a> bought 2,500 shares of IVR stock on 07/01/2009 at the average price of $20; the price of the stock has decreased by 1.75% since. <span style="color: green"><strong>Buy:</strong></span> Director <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/InsiderBuy.php?insider=Armour+Gregory+Mark"> Gregory Mark Armour </a> bought 5,000 shares of IVR stock on 07/01/2009 at the average price of $20; the price of the stock has decreased by 1.75% since. <br />
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<span style="font-size: 14px"><strong> Methode Electronics Inc. (<a href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?symbol=MEI">MEI</a>): CFO Douglas A Koman Bought 4,980 Shares </strong></span><br />
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CFO of Methode Electronics Inc. (<a href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?symbol=MEI">MEI</a>) Douglas A Koman bought 4,980 shares during the past week at an average price of $5.5. Methode Electronics Inc. manufactures component devices world-wide for Original Equipment Manufacturers of information processing and networking equipment voice and data communications systems consumer electronics automobiles aerospace vehicles and industrial equipment. Products employ electrical electronic and optical technologies as sensors interconnections and controls. The company manufactures bus systems and provides independent laboratory services for qualification testing and certification of electronic and optical components. Methode Electronics Inc. has a market cap of $249.4 million; its shares were traded at around $6.29 with a P/E ratio of 9.2 and P/S ratio of 0.4. The dividend yield of Methode Electronics Inc. stocks is 4.2%. <br />
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Methode Electronics Inc. recently reported fiscal results for its fourth quarter 2009 ended May 2, 2009. The company announced its total revenue of $89.0 million and net loss of $92.6 million ($2.50 per diluted share). This is compared to the same quarter last year which included total 154.4 million of $ and a net income of $12.9 million ($0.34 per diluted share). <br />
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<span style="color: green"><strong>Buy:</strong></span> Controller & Treasurer <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/InsiderBuy.php?insider=Tsoumas+Ronald+L.G."> Ronald L.g. Tsoumas </a> bought 1,181 shares of MEI stock on 07/09/2009 at the average price of $5.52 and 1,181 shares of MEI stock on 07/09/2009 at the average price of $5.52; the price of the stock has increased by 13.95% since. <br />
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<span style="font-size: 14px"><strong> Martin Midstream Partners L.P. Ltd. Part (<a href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?symbol=MMLP">MMLP</a>): Executive VP and CFO Robert D Bondurant Bought 182 Shares </strong></span> <br />
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Executive VP and CFO of Martin Midstream Partners L.P. Ltd. Part (<a href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?symbol=MMLP">MMLP</a>) Robert D Bondurant bought 182 shares on 07/06/2009 at an average price of $20.64. Martin Midstream is a limited partnership which stores and transports hydrocarbon products and specialty chemicals primarily in the Gulf Coast. It runs a marine transportation business mostly barges and tugs and operates storage tanks. Martin Midstream Partners L.P. Ltd. Part has a market cap of $289.1 million; its shares were traded at around $21.6 with a P/E ratio of 8.8 and P/S ratio of 0.2. The dividend yield of Martin Midstream Partners L.P. Ltd. Part stocks is 14.2%. <br />
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Martin Midstream Partners L.P. Ltd Part recently reported fiscal results for its first quarter 2009 ended March 31, 2009. The company announced its total revenue of $156.9 million and net income of $4.9 million ($0.28 per diluted share). This is compared to the same quarter last year which included total revenue of $313.0 million and a net income of $8.0 million ($0.51 per diluted share). <br />
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<span style="color: green"><strong>Buy:</strong></span> President and CEO, 10% Owner <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/InsiderBuy.php?insider=MARTIN+RUBEN+S"> Ruben S Martin </a> bought 2,925 shares of MMLP stock on 03/12/2009 at the average price of $15.3, 446 shares of MMLP stock on 04/01/2009 at the average price of $18.77, and 473 shares of MMLP stock on 07/06/2009 at the average price of $20.64; the price of the stock has increased by 4.65% since. <span style="color: green"><strong>Buy:</strong></span> Executive V.P. and C.O.O. <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/InsiderBuy.php?insider=NEUMEYER+DONALD+R"> Donald R Neumeyer </a> bought 358 shares of MMLP stock on 07/06/2009 at the average price of $20.64; the price of the stock has increased by 4.65% since. <span style="color: green"><strong>Buy:</strong></span> Executive VP, 10% Owner <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/InsiderBuy.php?insider=MARTIN+SCOTT+DONNELLY"> Scott Donnelly Martin </a> bought 124 shares of MMLP stock on 07/06/2009 at the average price of $20.64; the price of the stock has increased by 4.65% since. <span style="color: green"><strong>Buy:</strong></span> EVP, CAO and Controller <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/InsiderBuy.php?insider=SKELTON+WESLEY+M"> Wesley M Skelton </a> bought 132 shares of MMLP stock on 07/06/2009 at the average price of $20.64; the price of the stock has increased by 4.65% since. <span style="color: green"><strong>Buy:</strong></span> VP/General Counsel/Secretary <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/InsiderBuy.php?insider=Booth+Chris+H"> Chris H Booth </a> bought 52 shares of MMLP stock on 07/06/2009 at the average price of $20.64; the price of the stock has increased by 4.65% since. <span style="color: green"><strong>Buy:</strong></span> Executive V.P. <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/InsiderBuy.php?insider=Tauscher+Randall"> Randall Tauscher </a> bought 207 shares of MMLP stock on 07/06/2009 at the average price of $20.64; the price of the stock has increased by 4.65% since. <br />
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<span style="font-size: 14px"><strong> Chesapeake Utilities Corp. (<a href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?symbol=CPK">CPK</a>): Senior Vice President and CFO Beth W Cooper Bought 132 Shares </strong></span><br />
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Senior Vice President and CFO of Chesapeake Utilities Corp. (<a href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?symbol=CPK">CPK</a>) Beth W Cooper bought 132 shares on 07/06/2009 at an average price of $32.73. Chesapeake Utilities Corporation is a utility company engaged in natural gas distribution and transmission propane distribution and marketing advanced information services and other related businesses.Chesapeake's three natural gas distribution divisions serve residential commercial and industrial customers in southern Delaware Maryland's Eastern Shore and Florida. The Company's natural gas transmission subsidiary operates an interstate pipeline system that transports gas from various points in Pennsylvania to Delaware and Maryland distribution divisions. Chesapeake Utilities Corp. has a market cap of $228.7 million; its shares were traded at around $32.21 with a P/E ratio of 15.8 and P/S ratio of 0.8. The dividend yield of Chesapeake Utilities Corp. stocks is 3.8%. Chesapeake Utilities Corp. had an annual average earning growth of 3.8% over the past 10 years. <br />
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<span style="color: green"><strong>Buy:</strong></span> Senior Vice President <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/InsiderBuy.php?insider=THOMPSON+STEPHEN+C"> Stephen C Thompson </a> bought 54 shares of CPK stock on 05/05/2009 at the average price of $29.6, 49 shares of CPK stock on 06/05/2009 at the average price of $32.46, and 303 shares of CPK stock on 07/06/2009 at the average price of $32.73; the price of the stock has decreased by 1.59% since. <span style="color: green"><strong>Buy:</strong></span> Sharp Energy, Inc. (sub) <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/InsiderBuy.php?insider=Zola+Stanley+Robert"> Stanley Robert Zola </a> bought 31 shares of CPK stock on 05/05/2009 at the average price of $29.51; the price of the stock has increased by 9.15% since. <span style="color: green"><strong>Buy:</strong></span> Sharp Energy, Inc. (sub) <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/InsiderBuy.php?insider=Zola+Stanley+Robert"> Stanley Robert Zola </a> bought 182 shares of CPK stock on 04/06/2009 at the average price of $29.76; the price of the stock has increased by 8.23% since. <br />
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<span style="font-size: 14px"><strong> Tyler Technologies Inc. (<a href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?symbol=TYL">TYL</a>): Executive V.P. and CFO Brian K Miller Bought 105 Shares </strong></span><br />
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Executive V.P. and CFO of Tyler Technologies Inc. (<a href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?symbol=TYL">TYL</a>) Brian K Miller bought 105 shares on 07/01/2009 at an average price of $13.28. Tyler Corporation is a major provider of technology software data warehousing electronic document management systems information management outsourcing services title plant and property records database information and other professional services for local governments andother enterprises. The company intends to pursue a consolidation strategy that if successful could lead to significant revenue growth for the company. Tyler Technologies Inc. has a market cap of $551.3 million; its shares were traded at around $15.56 with a P/E ratio of 22.6 and P/S ratio of 2.1. Tyler Technologies Inc. had an annual average earning growth of 25.2% over the past 10 years. <br />
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<span style="color: red"><strong>Sell:</strong></span> President and CEO <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/InsiderBuy.php?insider=MARR+JOHN+S+JR"> John S. Jr. Marr </a> sold 50,000 shares of TYL stock on 05/05/2009 at the average price of $16.79 and 50,000 shares of TYL stock on 06/03/2009 at the average price of $16.93; the price of the stock has decreased by 8.09% since. <span style="color: green"><strong>Buy:</strong></span> Executive Vice President <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/InsiderBuy.php?insider=WOMBLE+DUSTIN+R"> Dustin R Womble </a> bought 495 more shares of TYL stock on 04/01/2009 at the average price of $12.44 and 560 shares of TYL stock on 07/01/2009 at the average price of $13.28; the price of the stock has increased by 17.17% since. <span style="color: red"><strong>Sell:</strong></span> E.V.P. and General Counsel <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/InsiderBuy.php?insider=MOORE+H+LYNN+JR"> H Lynn Jr Moore </a> sold 15,800 more shares of TYL stock on 04/30/2009 at the average price of $16.89 and 4,200 shares of TYL stock on 05/04/2009 at the average price of $16.75; the price of the stock has decreased by 7.1% since. <span style="color: red"><strong>Sell:</strong></span> Chairman of the Board <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/InsiderBuy.php?insider=YEAMAN+JOHN+M"> John M Yeaman </a> sold 25,000 shares of TYL stock on 03/10/2009 at the average price of $12.47; the price of the stock has increased by 24.78% since. <br />
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For the complete list of stocks that bought by their CFOs, go to: <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/InsiderBuy.php?position=cfo">Insider Buys</a>. <br />
<br><b>Article syndicated from <a href="http://www.gurufocus.com">GuruFocus.com</a>, go to <a href="http://www.gurufocus.com">GuruFocus</a> for Warren Buffett's recent stock picks</b><br />
			<b><a href="https://www.gurufocus.com/membership/upgrade.php">Become GuruFocus Premium Member to See What Gurus Are Buying</a><br></b>]]></description>
            <pubDate>Sat, 11 Jul 2009 12:05:29 -0600</pubDate>
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            <title>52-Week High Companies: China Life Insurance Company Ltd. ...</title>
            <link>http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=59939</link>
            <description><![CDATA[According to <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/52weeklow.php">GuruFocus updates</a>, these Guru stocks have reached their 52-Week Highs: China Life Insurance Company Ltd. (<a href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?symbol=LFC">LFC</a>), Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (<a href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?symbol=ANZBY">ANZBY</a>), Banco SantanderChile (<a href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?symbol=SAN">SAN</a>), Ross Stores Inc. (<a href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?symbol=ROST">ROST</a>), and Advance Auto Parts Inc. (<a href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?symbol=AAP">AAP</a>) <br />
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<span style="font-size: 14px"><strong>China Life Insurance Company Ltd. (<a href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?symbol=LFC">LFC</a>) Reached the 52-Week High of $58.88</strong></span> <br />
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China Life Insurance Company Ltd. is the leading life insurance company in China's life insurance market. The company provides products and services including individual life insurance, group life insurance, accident and health insurance. China Life Insurance Company Ltd. has a market cap of $29.73 billion; its shares were traded at around $58.88 with a P/E ratio of 374.5 and P/S ratio of 1.3. The dividend yield of China Life Insurance Company Ltd. stocks is 0.8%. <br />
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LFC is in the portfolios of <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=Sarah+Ketterer">Sarah Ketterer</a> of Causeway Capital management LLC, <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=Chris+Davis">Chris Davis</a> of Davis Selected Advisers, and <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=Kenneth+Fisher">Kenneth Fisher</a> of Fisher Asset Management, LLC. <br />
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<span style="font-size: 14px"><strong>Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (<a href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?symbol=ANZBY">ANZBY</a>) Reached the 52-Week High of $100</strong></span> <br />
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Australia and New Zealand Banking Group's principal activities are development, mortgage, lending, and other financial services. The Group operates within many countries. Australia and New Zealand Banking Group has a market cap of $24.39 billion; its shares were traded at around $100 with and P/S ratio of 0.73. The dividend yield of Australia and New Zealand Banking Group stocks is 6.1%. <br />
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Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited (ANZ) announced on Wednesday, 29 April 2009 an underlying profit ^ of $1,908 million up 20% on the preceding period (up 4% on the prior comparable period) for the half-year ended 31 March 2009. <br />
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<span style="font-size: 14px"><strong>Banco SantanderChile (<a href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?symbol=SAN">SAN</a>) Reached the 52-Week High of $45.19</strong></span> <br />
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Banco Santiago is the largest bank in Chile in terms of assets with Ch$4088 billion (approximately US $9.86 billion) as of March 31, 1997. Banco SantanderChile has a market cap of $8.27 billion; its shares were traded at around $45.19 with a P/E ratio of 13.4 and P/S ratio of 2. The dividend yield of Banco SantanderChile stocks is 2.9%. Banco SantanderChile had an annual average earning growth of 64% over the past 5 years. <br />
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For the quarter ended December 31, 2008, Banco Santiago had a revenue of $475.5 million compared to $312.5 million a year ago. Net income was $121.1 million compared to $166.5 million. <br />
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<span style="font-size: 14px"><strong>Ross Stores Inc. (<a href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?symbol=ROST">ROST</a>) Reached the 52-Week High of $40.84</strong></span> <br />
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Ross Stores Inc. operates a chain of off-price retail, apparel, and home accessories stores. The decisions of the company from merchandising, purchasing, and pricing to the location of its stores are aimed at this customer base. Ross Stores Inc. has a market cap of $5.24 billion; its shares were traded at around $40.84 with a P/E ratio of 16.9 and P/S ratio of 0.8. The dividend yield of Ross Stores Inc. stocks is 1.1%. Ross Stores Inc. had an annual average earning growth of 8.6% over the past 10 years. GuruFocus rated Ross Stores Inc. <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/predictable.php">the business predictability rank of 4.5-star</a>.<br />
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On May 21, 2009, Ross Stores Inc. reported that earnings per share for the 13 weeks ended May 2, 2009 rose 20% to $.72, from $.60 for the 13 weeks ended May 3, 2009. Net earnings for the first quarter of 2009 rose to a record $91.4 million, compared to $79.5 million in the first quarter of 2008. <br />
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ROST is in the portfolios of <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=Richard+Aster+Jr">Richard Aster Jr</a> of Meridian Fund, <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=John+Hussman">John Hussman</a> of Hussman Economtrics Advisors, Inc., and <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=Kenneth+Fisher">Kenneth Fisher</a> of Fisher Asset Management, LLC. <br />
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<span style="color: red"><strong>Sell:</strong></span> Vice Chairman, Pres. & CEO <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/InsiderBuy.php?insider=BALMUTH+MICHAEL"> Michael Balmuth </a> sold shares of ROST stock throughout April; the price increased by more than 4%. <span style="color: red"><strong>Sell:</strong></span> Senior VP CFO <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/InsiderBuy.php?insider=CALL+JOHN+G"> John G Call </a> sold 24,602 shares in the same month. Other directors have been selling shares for the last few months. <br />
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<span style="font-size: 14px"><strong>Advance Auto Parts Inc. (<a href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?symbol=AAP">AAP</a>) Reached the 52-Week High of $44.18</strong></span> <br />
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Advance Auto Parts Inc. is a specialty retailer of automotive parts, accessories, and maintenance items to `do-it-yourself` customers. Advance Auto Parts Inc. has a market cap of $4.15 billion; its shares were traded at around $44.18 with a P/E ratio of 15 and P/S ratio of 0.8. The dividend yield of Advance Auto Parts Inc. stocks is 0.6%. Advance Auto Parts Inc. had an annual average earning growth of 11.6% over the past 5 years.<br />
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On May 20, Advance Auto Parts Inc. reported results for the first quarter of 2009. Total sales for the first quarter increased 10.3% to $1.68 billion, compared with total sales of $1.53 billion in the first quarter of fiscal year 2008. <br />
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AAP is in the portfolio of <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=John+Keeley">John Keeley</a> of Keeley Fund Management. <br />
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<span style="color: red"><strong>Sell:</strong></span> COO <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/InsiderBuy.php?insider=Freeland+Kevin+P"> Kevin P Freeland </a> , <span style="color: red"><strong>Sell:</strong></span> Director <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/InsiderBuy.php?insider=RAY+GILBERT+T"> Gilbert T Ray </a> , and <span style="color: red"><strong>Sell:</strong></span> President <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/InsiderBuy.php?insider=WADE+JIMMIE+L"> Jimmie L Wade </a> all sold shares in May. <span style="color: red"><strong>Sell:</strong></span> SVP, Cust Op Excellence <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/InsiderBuy.php?insider=Marolt+Michael+W"> Michael W Marolt </a> sold 1,395 shares in April. <br />
<br><b>Article syndicated from <a href="http://www.gurufocus.com">GuruFocus.com</a>, go to <a href="http://www.gurufocus.com">GuruFocus</a> for Warren Buffett's recent stock picks</b><br />
			<b><a href="https://www.gurufocus.com/membership/upgrade.php">Become GuruFocus Premium Member to See What Gurus Are Buying</a><br></b>]]></description>
            <pubDate>Sat, 11 Jul 2009 12:00:48 -0600</pubDate>
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            <title>Weekly Top Insider Buys: Alcoa Inc., ABM Industries Inc., Valhi Inc., XenoPort Inc. ...</title>
            <link>http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=59938</link>
            <description><![CDATA[Weekly highlight of top insider buys: Alcoa Inc. (<a href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?symbol=AA">AA</a>), ABM Industries Inc. (<a href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?symbol=ABM">ABM</a>), Valhi Inc. (<a href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?symbol=VHI">VHI</a>), XenoPort Inc. (<a href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?symbol=XNPT">XNPT</a>), and Methode Electronics Inc. (<a href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?symbol=MEI">MEI</a>) <br />
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For the complete list of stocks that bought by their company executives, go to: <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/InsiderBuy.php">Insider Buys</a>. <br />
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<span style="font-size: 14px"><strong>Alcoa Inc. (<a href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?symbol=AA">AA</a>): Director Ratan Tata Bought 3,654 Shares</strong></span> <br />
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Director of Alcoa Inc., Ratan Tata, bought 3,654 shares on 7/10/2009 at an average price of $9.34. <br />
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Alcoa Inc. is the world's leading producer and manager of aluminum. Alcoa serves the aerospace, automotive, and construction markets by bringing design engineering production and other capabilities of Alcoa's businesses to customers. In addition to aluminum products and components Alcoa also markets consumer brands including Reynolds Wrap foils and plastic wraps, Alcoa wheels, and Baco household wraps. Alcoa Inc. has a market cap of $9.91 billion; its shares were traded at around $9.34 with a P/E ratio of 48.5 and P/S ratio of 0.4. The dividend yield of Alcoa Inc. stocks is 1.2%. Alcoa Inc. had an annual average earning growth of 3.5% over the past 10 years. <br />
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On April 7, Alcoa Inc. reported results for the first quarter of 2009. Revenues were $4.1 billion, down 36 percent from $6.5 billion in revenues in the first quarter of 2008 after excluding divested businesses. Net loss was $497 million compared with net income for the first quarter of 2008 of $303 million. <br />
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Alcoa Inc. is owned by eight Gurus. They are: <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=John+Keeley">John Keeley</a>, Hotchkis & Wiley, <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=Prem+Watsa">Prem Watsa</a>, <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=Brian+Rogers">Brian Rogers</a>, <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=PRIMECAP+Management">PRIMECAP Management</a>, <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=Dodge+%26+Cox">Dodge & Cox</a>, <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=Richard+Snow">Richard Snow</a>, and <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=Jean-Marie+Eveillard">Jean-Marie Eveillard</a>. <br />
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On Friday, <span style="color: green"><strong>Buy:</strong></span> Director <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/InsiderBuy.php?insider=TATA+RATAN"> Ratan Tata </a> bought 3,654 shares of AA stock and the price of the stock has increased by 0.97%. Ratan Tata also bought shares in April and January. <span style="color: red"><strong>Sell:</strong></span> Chairman of the Board <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/InsiderBuy.php?insider=BELDA+ALAIN+J+P"> Alain J P Belda </a> sold 100,000 shares in May. The price has decreased by 9.76%. <br />
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<span style="font-size: 14px"><strong>ABM Industries Inc. (<a href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?symbol=ABM">ABM</a>): SVP/GEN. Counsel/Corp. Secty. Sarah H Mcconnell Bought 1,445 Shares</strong></span> <br />
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SVP/GEN. Counsel/Corp. Secty. of ABM Industries Inc., Sarah H Mcconnell, bought 1,445 shares on 7/09/2009 at an average price of $16.89. <br />
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ABM Industries Inc. provides air conditioning, elevator engineering, janitorial lighting, parking and security services to thousands of commercial industrial and institutional customers. ABM Industries Inc. has a market cap of $864.9 million; its shares were traded at around $16.89 with a P/E ratio of 13.6 and P/S ratio of 0.2. The dividend yield of ABM Industries Inc. stocks is 3.2%. ABM Industries Inc. had an annual average earning growth of 4% over the past 10 years. GuruFocus rated ABM Industries Inc. <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/predictable.php">the business predictability rank of 2-star</a>. <br />
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On June 4, ABM Industries Inc. reported revenues for the second quarter of fiscal year 2009 of $855.7 million compared to 2008 revenues of $906.3 million. Net income for the second quarter was $12.8 million, a 15.4% increase over $11.1 million in the year-ago quarter. <br />
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ABM Industries Inc. is in the portfolio of <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=Kenneth+Fisher">Kenneth Fisher</a> of Fisher Asset Management, LLC <br />
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<span style="color: green"><strong>Buy:</strong></span> SVP/GEN. COUNSEL/CORP. SECTY. <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/InsiderBuy.php?insider=McConnell+Sarah+H"> Sarah H Mcconnell </a> bought 1,445 shares of ABM stock last week; the price of the stock has decreased by 2.09% since. Two directors sold shares in June and one sold shares in March. <br />
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<span style="font-size: 14px"><strong>Valhi Inc. (<a href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?symbol=VHI">VHI</a>): Vice Chairman of the Board Glenn R Simmons Bought 28,852 Shares</strong></span> <br />
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Vice Chairman of the Board of Valhi Inc., Glenn R Simmons, bought 28,852 shares during the past week at an average price of $6.14. <br />
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Valhi Inc. operates through majority-owned subsidiaries or less than majority-owned affiliates in the chemicals, component products, waste management, and titanium metals industries. Valhi Inc. has a market cap of $738.8 million; its shares were traded at around $6.14 with and P/S ratio of 0.5. The dividend yield of Valhi Inc. stocks is 6.1%. Valhi Inc. had an annual average earning growth of 40.6% over the past 5 years. <br />
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On May 6, Valhi Inc. reported a net loss attributable toValhi stockholders of $20.0 million, or $.18 per diluted share, in the first quarter of 2009 as compared to a net loss attributable to Valhi stockholders of $5.9 million, or $.05 per diluted share, in the first quarter of 2008. The Company's first quarter 2009 results include a gain on litigation settlement of $.07 per diluted share and a gain on the sale of a business of $.04 per diluted share. <br />
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Last week, <span style="color: green"><strong>Buy:</strong></span> Vice Chairman of the Board <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/InsiderBuy.php?insider=SIMMONS+GLENN+R"> Glenn R Simmons </a> bought 14,426 shares of VHI stock and the price of the stock decreased by 4.81%.<span style="color: green"><strong>Buy:</strong></span> Director <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/InsiderBuy.php?insider=EDELCUP+NORMAN+S"> Norman S Edelcup </a> and <span style="color: green"><strong>Buy:</strong></span> Chairman of the Board, 10% Owner <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/InsiderBuy.php?insider=SIMMONS+HAROLD+C"> Harold C Simmons </a> both bought shares in June. <br />
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<span style="font-size: 14px"><strong>XenoPort Inc. (<a href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?symbol=XNPT">XNPT</a>): Director John Gordon Freund Bought 135,000 Shares</strong></span> <br />
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Director of XenoPort Inc., John Gordon Freund, bought 135,000 shares on 7/10/2009 at an average price of $19.11. <br />
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XenoPort Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company focused on developing a portfolio of internally discovered product candidates that utilize the body's natural nutrient transporter mechanisms to improve the therapeutic benefits of existing drugs. XenoPort Inc. has a market cap of $478.7 million; its shares were traded at around $19.11 with and P/S ratio of 11.4. <br />
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On May 5, XenoPort Inc. announced its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2009. Revenues for the quarter were $26.3 million, compared to $15.0 million for the same period in 2008. Net loss for the first quarter was $2.7 million, compared to a net loss of $7.3 millionfor the same period in 2008.<br />
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XenoPort Inc. is in the portfolio of <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=Lee+Ainslie">Lee Ainslie</a> of Maverick Capital. <br />
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<span style="color: green"><strong> Buy:</strong></span> Director <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/InsiderBuy.php?insider=Freund+John+Gordon"> John Gordon Freund </a> bought 135,000 shares of XNPT stock on Friday; the price of the stock has increased by 0.58% since. Several other directors sold shares in July, June, and March. <br />
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<span style="font-size: 14px"><strong>Methode Electronics Inc. (<a href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?symbol=MEI">MEI</a>): CFO Douglas A Koman Bought 4,980 Shares</strong></span> <br />
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CFO of Methode Electronics Inc., Douglas A Koman, bought 4,980 shares during the past week at an average price of $6.29. <br />
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Methode Electronics Inc. manufactures bus systems and provides independent laboratory services for qualification testing and certification of electronic and optical components. Methode Electronics Inc. has a market cap of $249.4 million; its shares were traded at around $6.29 with a P/E ratio of 9.2 and P/S ratio of 0.4. The dividend yield of Methode Electronics Inc. stocks is 4.2%. <br />
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Last week, Methode Electronics Inc. announced results for the twelve months ended May 2. Net sales decreased $65.4 million, or 42.4 percent, to $89.0 million from $154.4 million in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2008. Net income decreased $105.5 million to a loss of $92.6 million, in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2009 compared to income of $12.9 million, or $0.34 per share, in the same period of fiscal year 2008. <br />
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On Thursday, <span style="color: green"><strong>Buy:</strong></span> CFO <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/InsiderBuy.php?insider=KOMAN+DOUGLAS+A"> Douglas A Koman </a> bought 2,490 shares of MEI stock and the price increased by 14.36%. <span style="color: green"><strong>Buy:</strong></span> Controller & Treasurer <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/InsiderBuy.php?insider=Tsoumas+Ronald+L.G."> Ronald L.g. Tsoumas </a> bought 1,181 shares the same day. <br />
<br><b>Article syndicated from <a href="http://www.gurufocus.com">GuruFocus.com</a>, go to <a href="http://www.gurufocus.com">GuruFocus</a> for Warren Buffett's recent stock picks</b><br />
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            <pubDate>Sat, 11 Jul 2009 10:28:44 -0600</pubDate>
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            <title>AND THAT'S THE WEEK THAT WAS...For the Week Ended July 10, 2009</title>
            <link>http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=59914</link>
            <description><![CDATA[<strong>Market Matters... </strong>"New and Improved"...the message of the week. General Motors emerged from Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection after just over a month, eager to start anew as a "new and improved" automaker. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) set its sights on "new and improved" trading regulations to limit excessive speculation within the energy and other commodities markets. Some politicos are calling for a "new and improved" stimulus package to move the economy beyond the worst recession since the Great Depression. A "new and improved" Public-Private Investment Program (PPIP) was scaled back dramatically as selected managers will begin purchasing toxic assets from ailing banks. Unfortunately, as the week progressed, investors did not seem too keen on these "new and improved" developments. <br />
<br />
Despite harsh protests by consumer groups and creditors, new GM reopened for business, "leaner and meaner" than ever (hopefully). A judge's ruling allowed the once bankrupt company to sell its performing assets to a new government-controlled entity (thanks to a $50 billion "investment" by taxpayers). The government then shifted its attention to the regulatory world and announced plans to propose trading restrictions on certain commodities and increase the oversight over risky derivative products that have proven so detrimental to the financial markets. (Of course, the grandstanding again began in earnest as certain politicos still believe too much government is far worse than too little oversight.) The (bi-)partisan disagreements continued as new debates raged over the success of the stimulus package and whether (and how much) more aid would be needed to help jumpstart the economy. Expect such rhetoric to be enhanced with each new economic release (see below). With regard to PPIP, PIMCO was left off the approved manager list, presumably by its own choice, despite being among the investment firms to "champion" the plan. <br />
<br />
<center class="bbcode"><table class="at">  <tr><th > Market/Index </th><th > Year Close (2008) </th><th > Qtr Close (06/30/09) </th><th > Previous Week (07/03/09) </th><th > Current Week (07/10/09) </th><th > YTD Change </th>  </tr>  <tr><td > Dow Jones Industrial </td><td  > 8,776.39 </td><td  > 8,447.00 </td><td  > 8,280.74 </td><td  > 8,146.52 </td><td > -7.18% </td>  </tr>  <tr><td > NASDAQ </td><td  > 1,577.03 </td><td  > 1,835.04 </td><td  > 1,796.52</td><td  > 1,756.03 </td><td > +11.35% </td>  </tr>  <tr><td > S&amp;P 500 </td><td  > 903.25 </td><td  > 919.32 </td><td  > 896.42 </td><td  > 879.13 </td><td > -2.67% </td>  </tr>  <tr><td > Russell 2000 </td><td  > 499.45 </td><td  > 508.28 </td><td  > 497.21 </td><td  > 480.98 </td><td > -3.70% </td>  </tr>  <tr><td > Global Dow </td><td  > 1526.21 </td><td  > 1,629.31</td><td  > 1,608.29</td><td  > 1,561.11 </td><td > +2.29% </td>  </tr>  <tr><td > Fed Funds </td><td  > 0.25% </td><td  > 0.25% </td><td  > 0.25% </td><td  > 0.25% </td><td > 0 bps </td>  </tr>  <tr><td > 10 yr Treasury (Yield) </td><td  > 2.24% </td><td  > 3.52%</td><td  > 3.50% </td><td  > 3.30% </td><td  > +106 bps </td>  </tr></table></center><br />
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The widely anticipated earnings season got started as Alcoa reported another quarterly loss and oil giant Chevron warned that its results would be hindered by poor refinery operations and a weak dollar. Thomson Reuters predicted that S&P 500 earnings will decline by 36% from last year's levels with financials (-53%) leading the way and techs (-24%) performing better than other sectors. This should represent the eighth straight down quarter, though analysts seem more concerned about the ensuing management comments on future operations. Investors have taken a more cautious approach heading into the new (but not improved) earnings season, particularly after last week's pessimistic labor data. Equities dropped throughout the week and fixed income again became beneficiary of safe-haven trades. (What a difference a few weeks makes.) The tech-heavy Nasdaq now remains the only major domestic stock index "in the black" for the year. Fickle energy traders suddenly turned bearish as well as the weak economic data implied that oil demand would be curtailed for the foreseeable future (or, at least, until 2013 according to OPEC's 2009 World Oil Outlook). Crude plunged below $59 or over 10% during the week on ongoing economic concerns though consumers ultimately may be recipients of cheaper gas prices. Now, that's one "new and improved" development that should be well-received. <br />
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<strong>Weekly Economic Calendar</strong><br />
<br />
<center class="bbcode"><table class="at">  <tr><th > Date </th><th > Release </th><th > Comments </th>  </tr>  <tr><td > July 6 </td><td > ISM &ndash; Services (06/09) </td><td > Contraction, but best showing since September 2008 </td>  </tr>  <tr><td > July 8 </td><td > Consumer Credit (05/09) </td><td > 4 th straight monthly decline in borrowing </td>  </tr>  <tr><td > July 9 </td><td > Initial Jobless Claims (07/04) </td><td > Best showing since Jan, though labor remains weak </td>  </tr>  <tr><td > July 10 </td><td > Balance of Trade (05/09) </td><td > Fell to lowest level since November 1999 </td>  </tr>  <tr><td > The Week Ahead</td><td >&nbsp; </td><td ><em> &nbsp;</em></td>  </tr>  <tr><td > July 14 </td><td > PPI (06/09) </td><td >&nbsp; </td>  </tr>  <tr><td >&nbsp; </td><td > Retail Sales (06/09) </td><td >&nbsp; </td>  </tr>  <tr><td > July 15 </td><td > CPI (06/09) </td><td >&nbsp; </td>  </tr>  <tr><td >&nbsp; </td><td > Industrial Production (06/09) </td><td ><em> &nbsp;</em></td>  </tr>  <tr><td > July 16 </td><td > Initial Jobless Claims (07/11) </td><td ><em> &nbsp;</em></td>  </tr>  <tr><td > July 17 </td><td > Housing Starts (06/09) </td>    <td ><em> &nbsp;</em></td>  </tr></table></center><br />
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To stimulate or not to stimulate...that is the question. According to some (like House Majority Leader Hoyer, VP Biden, and even <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=Warren+Buffett">Warren Buffett</a>), $787 billion was not enough to jumpstart the economy and additional stimuli would be needed sooner than later. On the other hand, Senate Majority Leader Henry Reid believes the plan needs more time to work through the system as only 10% or so has even been distributed thus far. Economists seem to agree with "Hank," as the latest Wall Street Journal survey reported that over 80% of respondents feel that the country does not need a new round of stimulus in the current environment. Still, the "Oracle of Omaha" (that's Mr. Buffett to you) painted an optimistic picture of the future by stating "We're going to come out of this better than ever, the best days of America lie ahead but not next week or next month." <br />
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On the global front, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its forecast of economic growth for 2010 upward (for a change) and confirmed its belief that the developing economies in China and India will greatly contribute to the global rebound. Prez Obama joined his world leader counterparts in Italy for the G-8 meeting where the best financial minds (hopefully) discussed exit strategies from the "unprecedented and concerted action" (stimulus) that have been enacted over the past year (and new moves that have yet to occur). <br />
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The May trade balance highlighted a slow week of data as the deficit declined to its lowest level since late 1999 and the weak labor market helped reduce consumer demand for foreign goods. While initial claims for unemployment benefits fell to levels not seen since the beginning of the year, continuous claims (those folks who remain on the unemployment rolls for over a week) rose by another record amount. In other words, no matter how one dissects the numbers, the labor picture looks dire and may not begin to improve for some time. As such, the latest University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading dropped for the first time since February, another sign that the optimism of the past few months may be fading fast. Retailers struggled in June as well as Abercrombie & Fitch (-32%) and Target (-6.2%) were among those performing worse than expected according to their same-store sales numbers. The world's largest retailer Wal-Mart chose not to report for the second straight month, undoubtedly skewing the results downward. <br />
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<strong>On the Horizon...</strong> Earnings season moves into high gear as financials and techs provide greater insight into the economic recovery and offer guidance for the rest of the year. Goldman Sachs (7/14), JP Morgan-Chase (7/16), Citigroup and Bank of America (7/17) all report about the progress made within the financial services sector; technology giants Intel (7/14) and IBM (7/16) reveal whether talks about IT spending have returned to the corporate boardrooms. The June inflation data (PPI and CPI) will be released, though after the past week's dramatic decline in energy prices, little can be taken from these numbers. Economists also get news to (over-) analyze from the housing, manufacturing, and retail fronts. And, of course, the once routine initial jobless claims report becomes more significant with each passing week. Surely, Hoyer, Biden, Buffett, Reid, and a slew of economists will all be watching. <br />
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<br />
Ron Brounes<br />
<a  href="http://www.ronbrounes.com">www.ronbrounes.com</a><br />
<br><b>Article syndicated from <a href="http://www.gurufocus.com">GuruFocus.com</a>, go to <a href="http://www.gurufocus.com">GuruFocus</a> for Warren Buffett's recent stock picks</b><br />
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            <pubDate>Fri, 10 Jul 2009 23:40:16 -0600</pubDate>
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            <title>A Jacobian Value Search: Invert, Always Invert!</title>
            <link>http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=59913</link>
            <description><![CDATA[It is a curious market. With macro and micro problems looming everywhere, sometimes one feels the urge to do nothing but hold cash. In looking for opportunities, perhaps one needs to find a new lens from which to analyze potential investments. Following the suggestion of Charlie Munger, we are drawn to the approach of the great Prussian Mathemetician Carl Jacobi. Invert, always invert! <br />
<br />
For surely when we look back on this period ten years hence, we will realize that an intense focus on the various train wrecks and squeaky wheels of the current financial crisis may have led us to ignore completely the vast areas of opportunity. But to find these may require turning our thinking upside down.<br />
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<strong>What Was Working: Yield and Leverage</strong><br />
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Summing up the great bounce of 2003 to 2007 in a simple phrase, it would be the quest for yield. Investors, we were constantly reminded in those years, wanted income and dividends. <br />
<br />
It never seemed a particularly convincing explanation. What reasonable person, even if they did require a little monthly cash flow to pay for the necessities of life, would sacrifice the permanent value of their capital for want of a few more basis points? Jim Grant called these investors "yield pigs." By the end of the rally the big plays - REITs and the oil and gas "income trusts" - traded at historically unexciting dividend yields, but massive price-to-book ratios. The value idea of 2003 was a tired momentum story four years later. <br />
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<strong>The Inverse of Yield</strong><br />
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Investing for yield is a strategy that works only some of the time. In a world with a relatively fixed supply of money, investing capital to earn interest is generally worthwhile. As investors receive interest (or dividends) while at the same time retaining ownership of their capital, they increase their share of the overall money supply and become relatively wealthier. And wealth, when it comes right down to it, is a relative game.<br />
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However when money supply starts expanding unnaturally quickly - call it "quantitative easing", "credit easing" or just good old fashioned money printing - then profiting from "yield" is a more complicated undertaking. Part of the investor's income stream just keeps him even with the growth in the overall supply of money. The higher the growth in money, the bigger the premium investors require to stay in the yield game. At a certain point, the point where projected growth in money supply becomes very high, investors ought to look beyond mere yields.<br />
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In the days when we used to read the newspaper to get stock quotations, I once questioned why the annotation "p" appeared beside the dividend amount for certain shares listed on the Vancouver Stock Exchange. It turned out that the "p" indicated a stock dividend. What, I asked, is the point of issuing a stock dividend? The company stays the same size and everyone just owns slightly more shares? The more I look at "income producing" investments these days, be they t-bills or bonds or high dividend equities, the more I am reminded of these old stock dividends on the VSE.<br />
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The inverse of yield investing, in my view, is the ownership of scarce assets. These assets are owned not because of a yield, but because they are valuable and will maintain their "wealth share." Money, as we all know, can be created for nothing. But you can't print wealth.<br />
<br />
<strong>More Practically...</strong><br />
<br />
But if we felt like taking our capital and walking away from instruments offering an increasingly dubious "yield", where would we put it? Real estate, the asset class that throughout history has separated the noble from the commoner, would be an obvious place to go under normal circumstances. But as the central asset of the recent bubble, one suspects that real estate is over-owned, over-built and over-priced. And if that weren't enough, we know real estate is extremely over-leveraged.<br />
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One non-yielding investment of interest is silver. As noted recently in this space, silver is scarce, of growing utility and significantly undervalued. Gold and platinum, although subject to slightly different supply and demand dynamics, ought to work out in a similar way. <br />
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Having made a pitch for shiny metal bars, one should not forsake all other assets. In my view there are many businesses which own assets even more scarce and useful than the precious metals. Two areas that look attractive are grain handling infrastructure and software.<br />
<br />
<strong>Grains, grain handling and processing:</strong> Jim Rogers says that one day it will be farmers who will be driving all the fancy cars. That may be a bit excessive, but certainly the demand profile here is one of the least likely to be affected by the broader economy. If we have inflation, grains, whose inflation-adjusted price has declined approximately 50% from 1982 to 2009, ought to hold their own.<br />
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More interesting than the grains themselves is grain handling capacity, especially in cases where it is protected from competition. During the grain price spikes of the 1970's, elevators filled up. On a growing commodity price there is less risk in carrying inventory and more speculators looking for a way to squeeze out shorts from the futures market. With higher grain inventories, handling capacity shrinks and operators should be able to exert significant pricing power. In terms of individual names, Viterra, Andersons and ADM should be worthy of some investigation in North America and Singapore-listed Wilmar International, whose focus is palm oil, also looks attractive.<br />
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Software: For different reasons, software companies may also be an attractive area to study. In a market that was willing to pay anything for yield, few cared for assets. Intangible assets, the stock-in trade of most software companies, were especially shunned. However, the right intangible assests can prove to be very scarce and may allow a software business to exercise considerable pricing power.<br />
<br />
Screening the lower EV/Assets ratios results in a list of many fairly healthy software businesses with excellent balance sheets. I have posted at length on Novell Inc. and RealNetworks, but Microsoft and Cray Computer (a software business disguised as a hardware business) also look good to me in the longer run.<br />
<br />
An embedded option of the software players are balance sheets which are stuffed with cash. As Venture Capital - the industry - faces headwinds, venture capital the concept may allow existing software players to pick up cheap interests in the next generation of innovative software franchises. As scarce assets, a growth software platform has few equals. <br />
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Investing based on scarcity, rather than on yield, has an admittedly counter-intuitive feel for anyone who has been involved in the capital markets of the past decade. But, to summon the wisdom of Sherlock Holmes, "When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth." <br />
<br />
Geoff Castle <br />
<a  href="http://www.marketdepth.typepad.com/">www.marketdepth.typepad.com</a><br />
<br><b>Article syndicated from <a href="http://www.gurufocus.com">GuruFocus.com</a>, go to <a href="http://www.gurufocus.com">GuruFocus</a> for Warren Buffett's recent stock picks</b><br />
			<b><a href="https://www.gurufocus.com/membership/upgrade.php">Become GuruFocus Premium Member to See What Gurus Are Buying</a><br></b>]]></description>
            <pubDate>Fri, 10 Jul 2009 23:26:03 -0600</pubDate>
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            <title>Nouriel Roubini: Brown Manure, Not Green Shoots</title>
            <link>http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=59887</link>
            <description><![CDATA[Nouriel Roubini: Brown Manure, Not Green Shoots <br />
<br />
It's been a long while since we last looked at Nouriel Roubini's thoughts. Wall Street is quite quick to dismissthose with "negative" (realistic) points of view as long as the "all knowing, Oracle like in nature" stock market is going up. As long as the market is up, everything must be fine, or will soon be. We experienced that in latter 2007 and multiple times in 2008. We just went through another episode and there will be more in the future. Ironically, many of those who cling to the cult of the "all knowing market" have been incredibly wrong on almost everything the past 2 years, while the few who got it right - they just cannot wait to impugn on any bear market rallies. [<a  href="http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2009/04/nouriel-roubini-calls-jim-cramer.html">Apr 10, 2009: Nouriel Roubini Calls Jim Cramer a "Buffoon"</a>] Just keep in mind for 95% of Wall Street the job is to "sell, sell, sell" and you need to spin positive to attract new money to the glorious home of riches and glory.<br />
<br />
Meanwhile reality in the non Wall Street economy churns on oblivious to the green shootery of "better than expected"...<br />
<br />
....let's check in on the latest missive from Nouriel <a  href="http://www.forbes.com/2009/07/08/jobs-report-mortgages-unemployment-recession-opinions-columnists-nouriel-roubini.html">via Forbes</a>; due to quality of content let me bring the whole thing over - it really summarizes a multitude of our own posts into 1 (keep in mind with all his numbers - especially of the employment kid, he is using some faulty government statistics - but he shares the same critical view of the ugly "inside" the data) [<a  href="http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2009/07/us-workers-pay-continues-to-suffer.html">Jul 3, 2009: US Workers Pay Continues to Suffer - First 0.0% Monthly Wage "Growth" I Can Remember</a>] Obviously he concurs in our "jobless recovery" stance... and whispers of double dip as we do.<br />
<br />
[As an aside, the "all knowing market" is bouncing as expected from a relatively heavy drop, led by oversold commodities - expect the "see, we told you" crowd to be out imminently with pom poms in hand]<br />
<br />
p.s. I was going with yellow weeds myself, but if we have to go all manure - fine<br />
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The June employment report suggests that the alleged green shoots are mostly yellow weeds that may eventually turn into brown manure. The employment report shows that conditions in the labor market continue to be extremely weak, with job losses in June of over 460,000. With the current rate of job losses, it is very clear that the unemployment rate could reach 10% by later this summer--around August or September--and will be closer to 10.5%, if not 11%, by year-end. I expect the unemployment rate is going to peak at around 11% at some point in 2010, well above historical standards for even severe recessions.It's clear that even if the recession were to be over anytime soon--and it's not going to be over before the end of the year--job losses are going to continue for at least another year and a half. Historically, during the last two recessions, job losses continued for at least a year and a half after the recession was over. During the 2001 recession, the recession was over in November 2001, and job losses continued through August 2003 for a cumulative loss of jobs of over 5 million; this time we are already seeing more than 6 million job losses and the recession is not over.The details of the unemployment report are even worse than the headline. Not only are there large job losses right now, but as a way of sharing the pain, firms are inducing workers to reduce hours and hourly wages. Therefore, when we're looking at the effect of the labor market on labor income, we should consider that the total value of labor income is the product of jobs, hours and average hourly wages--and that all three elements are falling right now. So the effect on labor income is much more significant than job losses alone.The details also suggest that other aspects of the labor markets are worsening. If you include discouraged workers and partially employed workers, the unemployment rate is already above 16%. If you consider also that temporary jobs are falling now quite sharply, labor market conditions are becoming worse and the average duration of unemployment now is at an all-time high. So people not only are losing jobs, but they're finding it harder to find new jobs. So every element of the labor market is worsening.The unemployment rate rose only marginally from 9.4% to 9.5%, but that's because so many people are discouraged that they exited the labor force voluntarily and therefore are not counted in the officialunemployment rate.The other element of the report that must be considered is that, for the summer, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is still adding between 150,000 and 200,000 jobs based on the birth/death model. We know the distortions of the birth/death model--that in a recession jobs created within firms are much smaller than those created by firms that are dying. So that's distorting downward the number of job losses. Based on the initial claims for unemployment benefits, it's more likely that the job losses are closer to 600,000 per month rather than the figures officially reported. These job losses are going to have a significant effect on consumer confidence and consumption in the months ahead. We've also seen extreme weakness in consumption. There was a boost in retail sales and real personal consumption-spending in January and February, sparked by sales following the holiday season, but the numbers from April, May and now June are extremely weak in real terms. In April and May you saw a significant increase in real personal income only because of tax rebates and unemployment benefits. In April, there was a sharp fall in real personal spending, and in May the increase was only marginal in real terms.<br />
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This suggests that most of the tax rebates are being saved rather than consumed. The same thing happened last year: With a $100 billion tax rebate, only thirty cents on the dollar were spent while seventy cents were saved. Last year, people expected the tax rebate to stimulate consumption through September. Instead, there was an increase in April, May and June, with the increase fizzling out by July.This year it's even worse. We have another $100 billion in tax rebates in the pipeline. But the numbers suggest that in April, real consumption fell. And in May it was practically flat. So this year households are even more worried than they were last year about jobs, income, credit cards and mortgages. Most likely only around 20 cents on the dollar--rather than 30 cents last year--of that increase in income is going to be spent. In any case, that increase in income is just temporary and is going to fizzle out by the summer. So you can expect a significant further reduction in consumption in the fall after the effects of the tax rebates fade.The other important aspect of the labor market is that if the unemployment rate is going to peak around 11% next year, the expected losses for banks on their loans and securities are going to be much higher than the ones estimated in the recent stress tests. You plug an unemployment rate of 11% in any model of loan losses and recovery rates and you get very ugly losses for subprime, near-prime, prime, home equity loan lines, credit cards, auto loans, student loans, leverage loans and commercial loans--much bigger numbers than what the stress tests projected.In the stress tests, the average unemployment rate next year was assumed to be 10.3% in the most adverse scenario. We'll be already at 10.3% by the fall or the winter of this year, and certainly well above that and close to 11% at some point next year.So these very weak conditions in the labor market suggest problems for the U.S. consumer, but also increasing problems for the banking system as these sharp increases in job losses lead to further delinquencieson loans and securities and lower than expected recovery rates.<br />
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<br />
The latest figures on mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures suggest a spike not only in subprimeand near-prime delinquencies, but now also on prime mortgages. So the problems of the economy aresignificantly affecting the banking system. Even if for a couple of other quarters banks are going to use the new Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) rules and under-provisioning for loan losses to report better-than-expected results, by Q4, with unemployment rates above 10%, that short-term accounting fudge will have a significant impact on reported earnings. And this will show the underlying weakness in the economy. So banks may fudge it for a couple of other quarters, but eventually the effects of very sharpunemployment rates and still sharply falling home prices are going to drag down earnings and have a sharp effect on losses and capital needs of the banks and the entire financial system.Essentially, the results today suggested that there are not as many green shoots. These green shoots, as I've argued, are mostly yellow weeds that may even turn into brown manure if a double-dip, W-shaped recession occurs in 2010-11. And it's not just the employment situation. Real consumption and retail sales remain weak. Industrial production remains weak. The housing market, in terms of price adjustment, remains weak, even if the quantities--demand and supply--may be closer to bottoming out. Indeed, the inventory of unsold new homes is so large that you could stop producing new homes for almost a year to get rid of that inventory. Moreover, about 50% of existing home sales are distressed sales (short sales and foreclosed homes).The labor market conditions may have a significant effect on how long it takes for the housing market to bottom out. It's already estimated that by the end of this year, there will be about 8.4 million people with a mortgage who have lost jobs, and therefore have little income. Therefore, the number of people who will have difficulties servicing their mortgages is going to rise very sharply.Home prices have already fallen from their peak by about 30%. Based on my analysis, they are going to fall by at least 40% from their peak, and more likely 45%, before they bottom out. They are still falling at an annualized rate of over 18%. That fall of at least 40%-45% percent of home prices from their peak is going to imply that about half of all households that have a mortgage--about 25 million of the 51 million that have mortgages--are going to be underwater with negative equity and will have a significant incentive to walk away from their homes.<br />
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The job market report is essentially the tip of the iceberg. It's a significant signal of the weaknesses in the economy. It affects consumer confidence. It affects labor income. It affects consumption. It affects the willingness of firms to start increasing production. It has significant consequences of the housing market. And it has significant consequences, of course, on the banking system.Overall, it's an extremely weak report and suggests that weakness in the labor markets is going to continue, and that the recession is more likely to continue through the end of the year and the beginning of next year. It also suggests that recovery will be anemic, subpar, below trend. We are still estimating that U.S. growth next year is going to be 1% above the 2009 level, well below a potential growth rate of 3%. This is because there is little deleveraging of households, corporate firms and financial institutions while there is a massive re-leveraging of the public sector with sharply rising deficits and debts as many of the private losses have been socialized.There are also signs that there may be forces leading to a double-dip recession sometime toward the second half of next year or toward 2011. If oil prices rise too much, too fast, too soon, that's going to have a negative effect on trade and real disposable income in oil-importing countries (U.S., Europe, Japan, China, etc.).Also, concerns about unsustainable budget deficits are high and are going to remain high, with growth anemic and unemployment rising. These deficits are already pushing long-term interest rates higher as investors worry about medium- to long-term stability. If these budget deficits are going to continue to be monetized, eventually, toward the end of next year, you are going to have a sharp increase in expected inflation--after three years of deflationary pressures--that's going to push interest rates even higher.For the time being, of course, there are massive deflationary pressures in the economy: the slack in the goods markets, with demand falling relative to supply-and-excess capacity. The rising slack in labor markets, which are controlling wages and labor costs and pushing them down, implies that deflationary pressures are going to be dominant this year and next year.But eventually, large budget deficits and their monetization are going to lead--toward the end of next year and in 2011--to an increase in expected inflation that may lead to a further increase in 10-year treasuries and other long-term government bond yields, and thus mortgage and private-market rates. Together with higher oil prices driven up by this wall of liquidity rather than fundamentals alone, this could be the double whammy that could push the economy into a double-dip or W-shaped recession by late 2010 or 2011.<br />
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So the outlook for the U.S. and global economy remains extremely weak ahead. The recent rally in global equities, commodities and credit may soon fizzle out as an onslaught of worse-than-expected macro, earnings and financial news take a toll on this rally, which has gotten way ahead of improvement in actual macro data.<br />
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Trader Mark<br />
<a  href="http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2009/07/nouriel-roubini-brown-manure-not-green.html"> www.fundmymutualfund.com</a><br />
<br><b>Article syndicated from <a href="http://www.gurufocus.com">GuruFocus.com</a>, go to <a href="http://www.gurufocus.com">GuruFocus</a> for Warren Buffett's recent stock picks</b><br />
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            <pubDate>Fri, 10 Jul 2009 11:33:01 -0600</pubDate>
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            <title>First Eagle Fund Initiated A Position In Borland Software Corporation</title>
            <link>http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=59875</link>
            <description><![CDATA[<strong>(GuruFocus, July 10, 2009 )</strong> First Eagle Fund, which Investment Guru <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=Jean-Marie+Eveillard">Jean-Marie Eveillard</a> managed for nearly 30 years through March 2009, is buying new shares of Borland Software Corporation (<a href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?symbol=BORL">BORL</a>) , <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=Jean-Marie+Eveillard"> GuruFocus Data</a> shows. On July 7, 2009, First Eagle bought 3.8 million shares of Borland Software Corporation (<a href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?symbol=BORL">BORL</a>) at the price of $1.53 per share. <br />
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In March 2009, Jean-Marie stepped down and became an advisor to the fund. <br />
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Borland Software Corporation provides e-business implementation platforms designed to increase developer productivity and reduce time to market for enterprise software projects. Borland Software Corp. has a market cap of $94.8 million; its shares were traded at around $1.54 with and P/S ratio of 0.5.<br />
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On May. 13, 2009, Borland Software Corporation announced financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2009. Borland had a total revenue of $35.1 million and GAAP net income of $1.9 million, or $0.03 per share for the quarter. <br />
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"In the first quarter we exceeded our guidance, achieved GAAP profitability, and continued to strengthen our balance sheet," said Erik Prusch, president and CEO of Borland. "We are pleased with our year-to-date progress, and our accomplishments represent tangible evidence of Borland's continued commitment to execution, innovation and customer value." <br />
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GuruFocus provides Real Time Guru Picks and Insider Buys/Sells information for <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/membership/index.php"> Premium Member</a>. If you are not a premium member, click <a  href="https://www.gurufocus.com/membership/upgrade.php"> here</a> to sign up or upgrade. 7-Day Free Trial is available. <br><b>Article syndicated from <a href="http://www.gurufocus.com">GuruFocus.com</a>, go to <a href="http://www.gurufocus.com">GuruFocus</a> for Warren Buffett's recent stock picks</b><br />
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            <pubDate>Fri, 10 Jul 2009 09:11:45 -0600</pubDate>
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            <title>Seth Klarman Sold Stake in Omnova Solutions Inc</title>
            <link>http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=59873</link>
            <description><![CDATA[<strong>(GuruFocus, July 10, 2009 )</strong> Investment Guru <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=Seth+Klarman">Seth Klarman</a> sold out his shares in chemical and building material company Omnova Solutions Inc.(<a href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?symbol=OMN">OMN</a>). On June 30, he sold all of the 3.2 million shares of OMN at the price of $3.26 per share. <br />
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This is a long time holding for <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=Seth+Klarman">Seth Klarman</a>. He initiated a position of 1.5 million shares in the company back in 4Q99. He actually traded in and out of the stock over the years, but never completely out of the stock. In 3Q06, he held 8.2 million shares, and since then he has been seen selling shares of the company gradually. By the end of 1Q09, he still had 5.4 million shares. With the sale on June 30, 2009, he is totally out of the stock. <br />
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Omnova Solutions Inc. develops,manufactures andmarkets emulsion polymers, specialty chemicals and decorative and building products for a variety of industrial commercial and consumer markets. Omnova Solutions Inc. has a market cap of $135.3 million; its shares were traded at around $3.68 with a P/E ratio of 12.3 and P/S ratio of 0.1. Omnova Solutions Inc. had an annual average earning growth of 2.1% over the past 5 years. <br />
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On June 23, the company reported net income of $5.1 million, or $0.12 per diluted share, for the second quarter ended May 31, 2009, compared to a net loss of $3.1 million, or $0.07 per diluted share, for the second quarter of 2008. Net sales decreased $58.4 million, or 26.6%, to $161.3 million for the second quarter of 2009 compared to $219.7 million for the second quarter of 2008. <br />
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"Our improved second quarter performance reflects the impact from a number of positive actions by the Company, including broad-based cost reductions, structurally improved pricing and the introduction of innovative new products, as well as lower raw material costs," said Kevin McMullen, OMNOVA Solutions' Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. <br />
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GuruFocus provides Real Time Guru Picks and Insider Buys/Sells information for <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/membership/index.php"> Premium Member</a>. If you are not a premium member, click <a  href="https://www.gurufocus.com/membership/upgrade.php"> here</a> to sign up or upgrade. 7-Day Free Trial is available. <br />
<br><b>Article syndicated from <a href="http://www.gurufocus.com">GuruFocus.com</a>, go to <a href="http://www.gurufocus.com">GuruFocus</a> for Warren Buffett's recent stock picks</b><br />
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            <pubDate>Fri, 10 Jul 2009 07:46:33 -0600</pubDate>
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            <title>Ron Baron Sells Shares of The Cheesecake Factory</title>
            <link>http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=59872</link>
            <description><![CDATA[<strong>(GuruFocus, July 10, 2009 )</strong> Investment Guru <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=Ron+Baron">Ron Baron</a> has reduced his position in restaurant operator The Cheesecake Factory (<a href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?symbol=CAKE">CAKE</a>). GuruFocus data shows that on July 9, 2009, <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=Ron+Baron">Ron Baron</a> reduced his holdings by 11.06% to 2,333,160 shares at the price of $16.4 per share. <br />
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<a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=Ron+Baron">Ron Baron</a> initiated a position of 6.1 million shares in CAKE in the third quarter of 2006. He increased his position to 7.7 million shares in 2Q07. He held this position for three quarters until 1Q08. CAKE stock price was well above $20 per share. But since 2Q08, he was seen steadily selling his shares, and by the end of 1Q09, he only has 2.6 million shares. The sale on July 9 reduced his holdings even further. <br />
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The Cheesecake Factory operates many upscale high volume casual dining restaurants. Cheesecake Factory Inc. has a market cap of $957.4 million; its shares were traded at around $16.4 with a P/E ratio of 20 and P/S ratio of 0.6. Cheesecake Factory Inc. had an annual average earning growth of 21.8% over the past 10 years. GuruFocus rated Cheesecake Factory Inc. <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/predictable.php">the business predictability rank of 4.5-star</a>. <br />
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On Apr. 23, 2009, the company reported financial results for the first quarter of fiscal 2009, which ended on March 31, 2009. Total revenues were $392.8 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2009 as compared to $393.8 million in the prior year first quarter. Net income and diluted net income per share were $10.0 million and $0.17, respectively. Comparable restaurant sales decreased 3.4% in the first quarter of fiscal 2009 from the first quarter of the prior year. <br />
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"A significant upturn in comparable restaurant sales as compared to the fourth quarter was the principal driver of our better than expected earnings per share in the first quarter," said David Overton, Chairman and CEO. "Guest traffic in our restaurants improved sequentially from fourth quarter levels by almost three percentage points, which is noteworthy relative to trends that we saw throughout last year and also reflects competitively strong performance. <br />
<br />
GuruFocus provides Real Time Guru Picks and Insider Buys/Sells information for <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/membership/index.php"> Premium Member</a>. If you are not a premium member, click <a  href="https://www.gurufocus.com/membership/upgrade.php"> here</a> to sign up or upgrade. 7-Day Free Trial is available. <br><b>Article syndicated from <a href="http://www.gurufocus.com">GuruFocus.com</a>, go to <a href="http://www.gurufocus.com">GuruFocus</a> for Warren Buffett's recent stock picks</b><br />
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            <pubDate>Fri, 10 Jul 2009 07:17:32 -0600</pubDate>
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            <title>PRIMECAP Management Buys More Southwest Airlines Shares</title>
            <link>http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=59851</link>
            <description><![CDATA[<strong>(GuruFocus, July 9, 2009)</strong> Investment Guru <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=PRIMECAP+Management">PRIMECAP Management</a> added 10.13% to its position of Southwest Airlines (<a href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?symbol=LUV">LUV</a>) on June 30, 2009. The Trading price was $6.73 per share. After the trade, <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=PRIMECAP+Management">PRIMECAP Management</a> owns 74,219,669 shares of the airline company. <br />
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<a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=PRIMECAP+Management">PRIMECAP Management</a> started to own LUV in 1Q08 with a small position of 59.9 million shares. It increased its position gradually during the past four quarters. LUV share price, however, dropped from $14.5 during the summer of 2008 to the current $6.5 per share. <br />
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Southwest Airlines is a major domestic airline that provides primarily short haul high-frequency point-to-point low-fare service. Southwest Airlines Co. has a market cap of $4.85 billion; its shares were traded at around $6.5 with a P/E ratio of 21.8 and P/S ratio of 0.4. The dividend yield of Southwest Airlines Co. stocks is 0.3%. Southwest Airlines Co. had an annual average earning growth of 4.3% over the past 10 years. GuruFocus rated Southwest Airlines Co. <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/predictable.php">the business predictability rank of 2-star</a>. <br />
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On April 16, Southwest Airlines reported a first quarter 2009 net loss of $91 million, or $.12 loss per diluted share, compared to net income of $34 million, or $.05 per diluted share, for first quarter 2008. Commenting on the first quarter results, Gary C. Kelly, CEO, stated: "Our first quarter 2009 financial results are disappointing, but not surprising given the current economic environment. We face the toughest revenue environment in our history. A rapid weakening in passenger demand during first quarter, particularly among business travelers, led to our first quarter net loss. Although competitively strong and financially resilient, we are not immune to the challenges the worldwide recession is having on air travel. "<br />
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Besides <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=PRIMECAP+Management">PRIMECAP Management</a>, Investment Guru <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=Brian+Rogers">Brian Rogers</a> also owns shares of LUV, 10,000,000 shares as of 03/31/2009, which accounts for 0.56% of the $11.33 billion portfolio of T Rowe Price Equity Income Fund. <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=John+Hussman">John Hussman</a> also has a stake in the company, 1.5 million shares as of 03/31/2009 <br />
<br />
GuruFocus provides Real Time Guru Picks and Insider Buys/Sells information for <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/membership/index.php">Premium Member</a>. If you are not a premium member, click <a  href="https://www.gurufocus.com/membership/upgrade.php">here</a> to sign up or upgrade. 7-Day Free Trial is available. <br><b>Article syndicated from <a href="http://www.gurufocus.com">GuruFocus.com</a>, go to <a href="http://www.gurufocus.com">GuruFocus</a> for Warren Buffett's recent stock picks</b><br />
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            <pubDate>Thu, 09 Jul 2009 20:56:55 -0600</pubDate>
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            <title>JOEL GREENBLATT INTERVIEW WITH GURUFOCUS.COM</title>
            <link>http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=59839</link>
            <description><![CDATA[Last week, <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=Joel+Greenblatt">Joel Greenblatt</a>, the founder and "godfather" of Magic Formula Investing (MFI), <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=59450">gave an interview</a> to value investing supersite GuruFocus.com. In the interview, he answered a number of questions relating to Magic Formula Investing, his new <a  href="http://www.formulatrading.com">FormulaTrading</a> venture (which <a  href="http://www.magicdiligence.com/articles/formula-trading-overview-2009-07-02">MagicDiligence reviewed here</a>), and on the market and his investing principles in general. I encourage all MagicDiligence readers to take a look at the interview, as it is an enlightening read. Some common themes ran through his answers, and I wanted to comment on a couple of them in this article. Joel's comments to GF are italicized, with my comments below. All comments belong to GuruFocus, and are reprinted with permission. <br />
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<strong>Theme #1: Investing Should be Simple</strong><br />
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<i>I think the exercise of trying to figure out how to simplify concepts has been incredibly helpful to me over the last 13 years of teaching and I hope my students have benefited from it.</i><br />
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<i>I do plan to write another book. It will also be about a basic framework for successful investing written in a way I hope my kids can understand.</i><br />
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One of the most prevalent themes with Greenblatt's approach to investing is simplicity. This is in stark contrast to what most money managers want you to believe. One recent commercial by a large money management firm equated managing your own investments to performing surgery on yourself! That is plainly ridiculous. Of course, they want you to believe this so they can earn their thousands of dollars in management and commission fees, all the while delivering below-market returns on your money. Greenblatt believes (as does <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=Warren+Buffett">Warren Buffett</a>) that investing is actually a simple task that is, at its core, easy to understand by anyone. <a  href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0471733067?ie=UTF8&tag=magicdi05-20&linkCode=as2&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=0471733067">The Little Book that Beats the Market</a> is easily understood by even the most novice investor, and Greenblatt apparently plans to write another book that follows this model....<i>I usually just look at a simple multiple to normalized earnings. If I can buy something at a very low multiple and I have confidence in the earnings stream, I don't have to calculate a DCF to know whether I want to buy it.</i> One common thing that MagicDiligence sees in the MFI community is a constant effort to "improve" the strategy by adding complexity. The above quote is exhibit A that it doesn't take a master's degree in statistical analysis to achieve success in the market, but it does take some common sense and foresight to determine what companies have a sustainable earnings stream and what companies do not.<br />
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<strong>Theme #2: Have a Long-term Horizon</strong><br />
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<i>I still believe that for good business analysts a concentrated portfolio is a good strategy combined with a long term horizon.Once again, the secret to success in following the formula strategy is patience, a quality in short supply for both professionals and individual investors alike.I think investors should have a large portion of their assets in equities over time. </i> <br />
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<i>I don't know too many people that are good at timing the market relative to macro-economic events.</i><br />
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MFI officially came on the scene in late 2005, and yet there has been volumes written already about how the strategy does not work, or how it is not right for "this market", or how it is "too aggressive" and/or "too conservative" in "current market conditions". That's a lot of analysis based on less than 4 years of practice! The fact is, patience is a key virtue that few active investors possess. In any investing career, you will have periods where you make bad stock picks, and periods where you make good ones. The key is to maximize the good ones and minimize the bad ones, which is what MFI is designed to do. By sticking with it, through thick and thin, you maximize your opportunity to pick stocks that will outperform the market. In the long run, your chances of success are much better than trying to time when a completely unpredictable (no matter what analysts say) global market will go up or down.<br />
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<strong>Theme #3: Comments Applicable to MagicDiligence's Mission</strong><br />
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Before I list some comments, I want to make abundantly clear that <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=Joel+Greenblatt">Joel Greenblatt</a> is in no way affiliated with this site, nor has he endorsed it, nor do the comments below apply specifically to MagicDiligence. With that said...<br />
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<i>The Magic Formula works on average. It can either be used as a screening device to find companies to do more work on to determine whether earnings are sustainable and predictable or as a way to accumulate a basket of 20 or 30 companies that on average are cheap and good. If you don't plan on doing additional research, buying individual companies without further research would obviously be imprudent.</i>(Responding to question on future opportunities for capital investment):<br />
<br />
<i>The big picture is: the main thing you should be concerned about in the future are incremental returns on capital going forward. As it turns out, past history of a good return on capital is a good proxy for this but obviously not foolproof. I think this is an area where thoughtful analysis can add value to any simple ranking/screening strategy such as the magic formula.When doing in depth analysis of companies, I care very much about long term earnings power, not necessarily so much about the volatility of that earnings power but about my certainty of "normal" earnings power over time.</i><br />
<br />
<i> My goal is to buy a company at a low multiple to normal earnings power several years out and that the company earns good returns on capital at that level of normal earnings.A holding period of more than one year also works quite well as the factors are persistent in years 2 and 3.</i><br />
<br />
These three quotes describe some of the mission here. By researching MFI stocks, we are looking for companies with sustainable competitive advantages that allow them to re-invest earned capital at attractive rates. Also, at MD we don't mind holding an MFI pick for several years as long as it remains on the screen. If a stock is staying on the Magic Formula screen, that means its returns on capitals are still good (sustainable), but the market is taking a little longer than normal to recognize the value. There is no reason not to hold, as Joel points out in one of the comments.<i>If index funds beat most active managers and the Magic Formula can beat the index funds by a wide margin, this may be a very good option for individual investors.</i> A few members have questioned the benchmarking of the <i>MagicDiligence Top Buys portfolio</i> against the S&P, but this quote sort of explains the reasoning. Benchmarking against the overall MFI screens is not really practical, since there are a virtually infinite number of potential MFI screens and it is impossible for an investor to exactly duplicate their results. Index funds can and do duplicate the S&P 500, hence the returns can be matched by an individual investor as an alternative to MFI.And, lastly, some interesting tidbits from the interview...<br />
<br />
(Greenblatt on some of his favorite books): <i>A few of my favorites are: "The Essays of <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=Warren+Buffett">Warren Buffett</a>" edited by Lawrence Cunningham, "Moneyball" by Michael Lewis and "The Invisible Heart" by Russell Roberts.</i><br />
<br />
MagicDiligence has coincidentally published a <a  href="http://www.magicdiligence.com/articles/moneyball-and-investing-book-review">review</a> of Moneyball, and is working on one of The Essays of <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=Warren+Buffett">Warren Buffett</a>, which is an excellent book indeed.<br />
<br />
<i>During the 10 years that Gotham Capital managed outside money from 1985-1994 the portfolio was rarely leveraged although small portions of the portfolio were sometimes invested in options.</i><br />
<br />
So many hedge funds abuse "leverage", or debt, but Greenblatt's fund does things the right way - earn capital on capital and grow organically. This is the way MagicDiligence likes to see companies grow, as well.<br />
<br />
Steve Alexander<br />
<a  href="http://www.magicdiligence.com"> www.magicdiligence.com</a><br />
<br><b>Article syndicated from <a href="http://www.gurufocus.com">GuruFocus.com</a>, go to <a href="http://www.gurufocus.com">GuruFocus</a> for Warren Buffett's recent stock picks</b><br />
			<b><a href="https://www.gurufocus.com/membership/upgrade.php">Become GuruFocus Premium Member to See What Gurus Are Buying</a><br></b>]]></description>
            <pubDate>Thu, 09 Jul 2009 16:39:20 -0600</pubDate>
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            <title>Warren Buffett of Berkshire Hathaway  Interviewed by ABC</title>
            <link>http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=59832</link>
            <description><![CDATA[<a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=Warren+Buffett">Warren Buffett</a>, Chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway was interviewed by ABC today, in which he gave a guided support for a second economic stimulus package. Here are some quotes from the Buffett Make sure you watch the video in the end. <br />
<br />
<strong>1. On the second economic stimulus package:</strong> <blockquote> <br />
<br />
"I think that a second one may well be called for," <br />
<br />
"you hope it doesn't get watered down in many ways." <br />
<br />
"Our first stimulus bill ... was sort of like taking half a tablet of Viagra and having also a bunch of candy mixed in ... as if everybody was putting in enough for their own constituents, it doesn't have really quite the wall that might have been anticipated there."</blockquote> <br />
<br />
<strong>2. On government's public-private investment plan (PPIP)</strong> <blockquote> <br />
<br />
"I do not like the idea of any kind of a plan involving the government where Wall Street makes a lot of money. My plan provided that they would make no money whatsoever, and the American public would make the money. I just think that Wall Street owes the American people one at this point," </blockquote> <br />
<br />
<strong>3. On economic recovery:</strong><blockquote> <br />
<br />
"We are not in a freefall, but we are not in a recovery either. We were in a freefall really in the last quarter of last year, starting in the financial markets and spreading to the economy, and we had this huge change in behavior. That change hasn't changed." <br />
<br />
"We didn't want to do it, and if we saw things coming back we wouldn't do it" (Buffett laid off 500 people from his own company) </blockquote> <br />
<br />
<strong>4. On severity of current recession:</strong><blockquote> <br />
<br />
"I have never seen it quite happen like this, but what happened was in late September, the American public ... saw money market funds break the buck. They saw commercial papers stop, they saw all kinds of things that they hadn't seen before,It was a shock to the system." </blockquote> <br />
<br />
<strong>5. But in the end Buffett remains optimistic:</strong> <blockquote> <br />
<br />
"I want to emphasize, we are going to come out of this better than ever," he said. "I mean the best days of America, by far, lie ahead. But not next week or next month and then, I don't know exactly when we will come out, but we will come out big time." </blockquote> <br />
<br />
<a  href="http://abcnews.go.com/video/playerIndex?id=8039910">Click to view the video</a> <br />
<br />
<br />
<br><b>Article syndicated from <a href="http://www.gurufocus.com">GuruFocus.com</a>, go to <a href="http://www.gurufocus.com">GuruFocus</a> for Warren Buffett's recent stock picks</b><br />
			<b><a href="https://www.gurufocus.com/membership/upgrade.php">Become GuruFocus Premium Member to See What Gurus Are Buying</a><br></b>]]></description>
            <pubDate>Thu, 09 Jul 2009 15:40:17 -0600</pubDate>
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            <title>Lunch will be delicious, But Learning from Berkshire Hathaway's Buffett is hard</title>
            <link>http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=59768</link>
            <description><![CDATA[<strong>(GuruFocus, July 8, 2008)</strong> As it turns out, it's a Canadian firm Salida Capital and its Chief Executive Officer, Courtenay Wolfe won with a $1.68 million bid. At least our neighbor in the north still got the money and the heart for charity. <br />
<br />
Once again it is a hedge fund manager who won the auctions. Salida Capital manages about $300 million. Forget about Fed Chairman, forget about President Obama, the S&P 500 CEO's, and US consumers; they either did not register with Ebay, or did not bid, or were outbid. For now, it is just hedge funds. <br />
<br />
But what exactly a hedge fund firm Salida is? Not much detail is available, but from <a  href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=abCmeZER9Ttg"> this Bloomberg piece</a>, we know the firm was founded in 2001, currently manages three funds. Salida multi strategy hedge fund returned 83 percent in the first half of this year after falling by about two-thirds in 2008. Three other funds managed by Salida are being liquidated after being "affected by market dislocation as a result of exposure" to bankrupt Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., according to the firm's Web site. <br />
<br />
Sometimes, actually most of the times, people use the term "hedge" to mean "speculative". By definition, <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=John+Hussman">John Hussman</a>'s Hussman Strategic Growth Fund is a hedge fund. Even in unprecedented times of the past two years, when you are down two-thirds in one year and up 80% in the next, you are speculating, not investing, let alone hedging. If the regulator wants to regulate hedge funds, I would suggest they forbid the use of term "hedge" unless the fund really qualifies. <br />
<br />
I hope bidding for and winning the auction is a true change of heart of the firm's fund managers. But from the limited the information given in <a  href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=abCmeZER9Ttg"> Bloomberg article</a>, I am afraid that is hardly the case. Despite the fact that the managers believe the hefty price for the lunch is an investment in our future, the firm are very bullish on commodities. Betting on one stock, one sector, especially on a sector like commodity, is not even investing, definitely not value investing, the kind of investment <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=Warren+Buffett">Warren Buffett</a> practices. <br />
<br />
In deed, <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=Warren+Buffett">Warren Buffett</a> did say that "I still believe the odds are good that oil sells far higher in the future than the current $40-$50 price," in his yearly letter to shareholder, that does not stop him from admitting buying ConocoPhillips (<a href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?symbol=COP">COP</a>) and selling some of his stake in the first quarter. <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=Warren+Buffett">Warren Buffett</a> has a much more diversified porfolio in his investment. <br />
<br />
I am not saying Salida does not deserve to win. Their money is as good as anybody else's when it comes to benefiting the charity organization Glide Foundation. All I am trying to say is that it will be a lot of arm twisting before Salida converts to <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=Warren+Buffett">Warren Buffett</a>'s investment philosophy. <br />
<br />
The lunch is delicious, but the learning may be painful.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br><b>Article syndicated from <a href="http://www.gurufocus.com">GuruFocus.com</a>, go to <a href="http://www.gurufocus.com">GuruFocus</a> for Warren Buffett's recent stock picks</b><br />
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            <pubDate>Wed, 08 Jul 2009 23:44:14 -0600</pubDate>
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            <title>Picks and Pans from Investment Gurus</title>
            <link>http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=59740</link>
            <description><![CDATA[There is an article in yesterday's WSJ entitled "<a  href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124692380302602835.html">Picks and Pans From Market Pros</a>", featuring four investment managers: <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=George+Soros">George Soros</a>, <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=John+Paulson">John Paulson</a>, Alan Fournier, and James Melcher.  Here are the main points made about each one of them:<br />
<br />
<a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=George+Soros">George Soros</a>:<blockquote><br />
1.Soros's fund returned 32% for 2007, 8% in 2008, and 17% so far in 2009.<br />
2.Calls the current market a "trading market", he thinks investors should take profits when shares surge, even if they look promising long term. <br />
3.Soros is not exactly saying he is bearish, but he doesn't "see how we can have the kind of growth in profts that we had during the superbubble".<br />
4.He is bullish with China, Brazil, and India.  He likes China because it is a beneficiary of the collapse of financial system and China is stimulating its economy and acts as an economic motor.  </blockquote><br />
<br />
<a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=John+Paulson">John Paulson</a>:<blockquote><br />
1.Made $17 billion in 2007 and 2008 by betting against subprime mortgages and financial shares. <br />
2.Cash reached $19 billion for his $30 billion fund at the beginning of 2009.<br />
3.The firm concluded that beaten-down prices assumed a rash of defaults that were unlikely to materialize and shifted their focus on the credit markets form one which had a short bias starting in 2006 to one that is aggressively long.<br />
4.Paulson is buying shares of financial companies like Capital One Financial Corp., J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., and commercial real estate broker CB Richard Ellis Group, and oil produce Petro-Canada. <br />
5.Paulson is buying very selectively as he fears lower growth ahead as consumers struggle and he is concerned with a surge of inflation. <br />
6.More than 10% is in gold. </blockquote><br />
<br />
Alan Fournier:<blockquote><br />
1.Fournier used to work for <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=David+Tepper">David Tepper</a> and was among the first investors to turn gloomy on housing.<br />
2.Fournier's hedge fund Pennant Capital is up about 9% this year. <br />
3.Bullish to health care, especially WellPoint(<a href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?symbol=WLP">WLP</a>). Thinking the impact on WLP's earning from President  Obama's health-care plan will not be as much as peopled feared</blockquote><br />
<br />
James Melcher:<blockquote><br />
1.James Melcher manages Balestra Capital, managing a little under $1billion.<br />
2.Fund returned 199% in 2007, 46% in 2008, ad 7% so far in 2009.<br />
3.Fund owns top-rated corporate bonds with yields of about 6.5%. <br />
4.Melcher is increasingly concerned that stock market is beginning to look expensive again. "The economy is still deteriorating, job losses are still huge", Melcher does not see where the earning will come to drive valuations.<br />
5.Melcher has been buying Credit Default Swaps against debt of countries like Latvia, Bulgaria, Romania, Sweden, Ireland, and Greece.    </blockquote><br />
<br />
<a  href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124692380302602835.html">Click to read the complete article</a><br />
<br><b>Article syndicated from <a href="http://www.gurufocus.com">GuruFocus.com</a>, go to <a href="http://www.gurufocus.com">GuruFocus</a> for Warren Buffett's recent stock picks</b><br />
			<b><a href="https://www.gurufocus.com/membership/upgrade.php">Become GuruFocus Premium Member to See What Gurus Are Buying</a><br></b>]]></description>
            <pubDate>Wed, 08 Jul 2009 14:14:53 -0600</pubDate>
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            <title>Myths about Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway</title>
            <link>http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=59719</link>
            <description><![CDATA[<a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=Warren+Buffett">Warren Buffett</a> is the richest investor in the world. The student of the father of value investing Ben Graham, learned how to invest money in the Graham-Newman Corp. partnership in the early 1950s. After it was closed, Buffett formed his own investment management partnership. In it, he utilized several value investment strategies, which allowed him to significantly outperform the S&P 500 for over a decade. In the early days of his partnership it was pretty easy to uncover value investment opportunities, since the partnership was small enough to deal where few investment advisers and mutual funds had the insight to operate.<br />
<br />
In 1969, <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=Warren+Buffett">Warren Buffett</a> closed his partnership, citing the fact that the market was overpriced and that bargains fitting the strict value investing principles that Graham taught him were tough to uncover.<br />
<br />
At the same time he concentrated his actions on a small textile operation called Berkshire Hathaway, which is his flagship holding company. His success at Berkshire is astounding, but it is not merely due to value investing strategy, as is commonly known. Had Buffett not branched out of strict value investing principles that Graham taught him; Berkshire Hathaway would have remained a relatively small conglomerate. Buffett did branch out into other strategies however. His insurance operations are similar to selling naked puts or calls - he generates enough premium which in most cases doesn't have to be paid out for many years to come, giving him a low cost source of financing. His recent deal to sell long term puts (LEAPs) on four major stock indices is another example of branching out.<br />
<br />
Buffett also essentially shorted the US dollar. In 2002, Buffett entered in $11 billion worth of forward contracts to deliver U.S. dollars against other currencies. By April 2006, his total gain on these contracts was over $2 billion. In 2005 he reduced his exposure to the currency futures he was holding. His play on the weakening dollar is by purchasing solid businesses which derive a portion of their earnings from outside the US.<br />
<br />
Most people I talk to also seem to believe that Buffett owns a concentrated portfolio of 10-15 positions, which allows him to allocate the most funds in his best ideas. A recent look at Berkshire Hathaway's stock portfolio revealed 40 stock positions from a variety of industries such as consumer staples, utilities, financials, retailers, energy and many other sectors. In addition to that Berkshire Hathaway owns a variety of businesses ranging from insurance ( Geico and General RE) , Utilities ( Mid american), Apparel, Building Products, Flight Services, Retail, Financial, and Conglomerates such as the recently acquired Marmon Holdings.<br />
<br />
Another example is his investments in Gillette, acquired by Procter and Gamble(PG) ; Coca Cola (<a href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?symbol=KO">KO</a>) and Johnson & Johnson (<a href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?symbol=JNJ">JNJ</a>). Buffett purchases businesses with wide moats, which he believes have strong growth potential, that would lift earnings and distributable cash flows. His yield on cost on his 1988-1994 $1.298 billion investment in Coca Cola (<a href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?symbol=KO">KO</a>) is a staggering 25.20%. His average purchase price comes out to $6.49/share, whereas the annual dividend is $1.76/share after the most recent dividend increase.<br />
<br />
Another interesting investment is in See's Candies, which he purchased for $25 million in 1972, at a time when its pre-tax earnings were $5 million on $30 million of sales. The confectionary maker in a slow growth industry currently generates enough cash flow, which is then redirected to other business opportunities. In fact over the past 35 years, the capital needs for the company have risen from $8 million to $40 million annually, while it has returned $1.35 billion worth of pre-tax earnings to be allocated somewhere else.<br />
<br />
Yet another myth about Buffett is that he doesn't like dividends. The contrary is true - from his early days of buying farmland and operating a newspaper route to buying pinball machines Buffett has been particularly interested in the distributions from his business. His investments in See's Candies and other businesses like Coca Cola (<a href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?symbol=KO">KO</a>) and Johnson & Johnson (<a href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?symbol=JNJ">JNJ</a>) throw off enough cash in the form of dividends to Berkshire Hathaway that he then allocates appropriately. The same is true for many dividend investors, which are primarily interested in purchasing stable wide moat businesses, that have the ability to grow earnings. That way these companies can afford to consistently raise distributions to shareholders. Dividend investors then allocate their dividends received in the best manner suitable - either by purchasing more stock or spending it on their own needs.<br />
<br />
Another myth about <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=Warren+Buffett">Warren Buffett</a> is that he never sells. In 1998 he sold his position in McDonald's (<a href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?symbol=MCD">MCD</a>) for a tidy profit. In his 1998 Letter to Shareholders, Buffett called this move "a very big mistake". While McDonald's stock closed 1998 at $38 it did fall to as lot as $12 at the bottom of the 2000-2003 bear market, before staging a massive rally during the 2003-2007-bull market. The stock is one of the few, which have not seen their shares fall of a cliff in the recent bear market.<br />
<br />
The future of Berkshire Hathaway is really what gives nightmares to its investors. Due to its sheer size, it has to concentrate only on opportunities in the billions of dollars. In "THE SUPERINVESTORS OF GRAHAM-AND-DODDSVILLE" he explained that "if you ever get so you're managing two trillion dollars, and that happens to be the amount of the total equity valuation in the economy, don't think that you'll do better than average"<br />
<br />
It would be impracticable to concentrate on hundreds of smaller deals, which could potentially generate higher returns. One idea that Berkshire could implement is to franchise Buffett Partnership's business model to hundreds of small value investors with $1 million in seed capital, and watch them become the next Buffett. This could bring in new life to Berkshire.<br />
<br />
Buffett seems to like companies, which generate enough in royalties due to their high moats for many years to come. Such competitive advantages that allow them to spend a considerable amount of funds upfront on research and development to create a unique product and then sell it for many years in the future is closely resembling the idea of passive income that many investors are constantly seeking out. Such companies which generate "royalty" type of revenues includes See's Candies, Microsoft (<a href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?symbol=MSFT">MSFT</a>), Coca Cola (<a href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?symbol=KO">KO</a>), and pharmaceuticals companies such as Pfizer (<a href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?symbol=PFE">PFE</a>) or Eli Lilly (<a href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?symbol=LLY">LLY</a>).<br />
<br />
Below I have summarized some interesting materials I found about Buffett:<br />
<br />
<a  href="http://www.ticonline.com/buffett.partner.letters.html">Buffett Partnership Letters</a><br />
<br />
<a  href="http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/letters.html">Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder Letters</a><br />
<br />
<a  href="http://thomashawk.com/2005/12/1997-email-from-microsofts-jeff-raikes.html">Buffett's E-mail correspondence about Microsoft</a><br />
<br />
<a  href="http://www.tilsonfunds.com/superinvestors.pdf">THE SUPERINVESTORS OF GRAHAM-AND-DODDSVILLE</a><br />
<br />
Dividend Growth Investor<br />
<a  href="http://www.dividendgrowthinvestor.com">www.dividendgrowthinvestor.com</a><br />
<br><b>Article syndicated from <a href="http://www.gurufocus.com">GuruFocus.com</a>, go to <a href="http://www.gurufocus.com">GuruFocus</a> for Warren Buffett's recent stock picks</b><br />
			<b><a href="https://www.gurufocus.com/membership/upgrade.php">Become GuruFocus Premium Member to See What Gurus Are Buying</a><br></b>]]></description>
            <pubDate>Wed, 08 Jul 2009 09:52:09 -0600</pubDate>
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            <title>Culprit: Goldman Sachs!</title>
            <link>http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=59717</link>
            <description><![CDATA[Who created the last market bubble and how? GOLDMAN SACHS. <br />
<br />
I was perusing Barnes and Noble this past weekend (Sunday) and noticed that Rolling Stone Magazine had an article on Goldman Sachs. The article was dubbed "The Great American Bubble Machine" and seems to expose Goldman Sachs as the cause not only for the current financial crisis, but for financial bubbles dating back to the 1930's. More importantly, It gives a prime example of why investors should manage their own money and government should stay out of the economy. <br />
<br />
The article is a must read for everyone, especially if you have an account with Goldman or any of the other big brokerage houses.  Without getting into the entire details thus depriving you of a great read; in the article, Matt Taibbi unveils how Goldman Sachs was responsible for the dot com bubble, mortgage bubble, and commodities bubble. And, with Goldman looking to pay out roughly $20 billion in annual bonuses to their people this year alone,  it goes to show just how much clout these big banks really have. So, if you haven't read the article, pick it up at your local newsstand. <br />
<br />
My questions are... <br />
<br />
Is it fair that any banks were bailed out in the first place? <br />
Is it fair that these banks that prey on investors (as you'll read) give their people bonuses? <br />
How much of government is run by ex-Wall Street types? <br />
<br />
The bottom line is... <br />
<br />
This article is just one media story in a long series of stories illustrating why the majority of investors should learn to do it on their own. Wall Street has done a great job of brainwashing people over the last 50 years into believe they had all the best ideas, solutions, and wealth creating vehicles. Now, for years to come, I believe that more and more people will start to do it themselves. I mean, people have been building their own houses and doing their own remolding for years thanks to stores like Home Depot. Why not take the same time and become a better investor? <br />
<br />
If you're visiting GuruFocus.com I sincerely hope you are managing your own money even if you're using this services ideas and information to help make those decisions. And while making your own decisions will not guarantee that you make money in the market, with over 85% of money managers never beating the collective market averages, you have to be able to match those odds, right?  I'm guessing that if you're using GuruFocus (and any other site like it) you're ahead of most.  And, using any one of the strategies on this site can help you outperform the market and those 85% of helpers. <br />
<br />
Another thing... <br />
<br />
This article is just one of many that show that we do not live in a free market capitalistic society and that our government acts on the behalf of major corporations because these companies have situated themselves inside politics.   You probably already knew that. <br />
<br />
What do I mean? <br />
<br />
Well, I am a big fan of Austrian Economic Theory. I think that laissez-faire political action toward economics should be the practice in our society. Let the free market decide what is what without the government being involved. Sure, we need standards of practice to support certain things, but we have seen how faulty regulation can actually be - Fannie and Freddie being prime examples. <br />
<br />
In the article on Goldman, Taibbi explains how many of the top level political offices are held by ex-Goldman employees. In fact this is ludicrous to me. Should former top employees at McDonalds or Merck be allowed to go to the FDA?  I would hallucinate there are some inside that organization. The article also explains how, contrary to popular brainwashing, the Democrats (not Republicans) have been the one's responsible for the bubble markets because of their association with Goldman, especially since the 90's. <br />
<br />
Unfortunately, all the data point to our country heading toward more socialization (a.k.a. more government power and less freedom) and less free market enterprise - banking and healthcare to lead the way. To do this we are increasing our debt by trillions. I remember when a trillion dollars was a huge deal for the national debt. Well now we're approaching 15 times that. <br />
<br />
Austrian Theory has been used to explain why the Great Depression really happened and how it could have been avoided. It also was used recently to predict the housing collapse, by Peter Schiff and others. And, it can be used to get us out of the current mess we are moving towards. Of course the plot of government is always to get more power, just like the plot for any business is to make more money. These two seem to be moving at odds, while in our society they are actually moving in step. At least for the biggest companies that are truly "too big to fail." <br />
<br />
This may have been a very round a bout way to say the following: <br />
<br />
1. No one cares more about your money than you do, so start investing on your own, if you haven't done so already. GuruFocus.com can help.<br />
<br />
2. Government intervention is bad for the economy and has been for centuries. Our country looks to be heading for high inflation soon - be prepared. <br />
<br />
3. I believe that <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=Warren+Buffett">Warren Buffett</a> is right in NOT PAYING ATTENTION to most economic indicators and focusing strictly on the businesses fundamentals. This is why there will always be good bargains to be found in the United States stock market. <br />
<br><b>Article syndicated from <a href="http://www.gurufocus.com">GuruFocus.com</a>, go to <a href="http://www.gurufocus.com">GuruFocus</a> for Warren Buffett's recent stock picks</b><br />
			<b><a href="https://www.gurufocus.com/membership/upgrade.php">Become GuruFocus Premium Member to See What Gurus Are Buying</a><br></b>]]></description>
            <pubDate>Wed, 08 Jul 2009 08:50:00 -0600</pubDate>
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        <item>
            <title>The Pickens Plan Revisited</title>
            <link>http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=59708</link>
            <description><![CDATA[As oil prices escalated to nearly $150 one year ago, T. Boone Pickens appeared on CNBC to explain his proposals for energy independence.  At the time, Mr. Pickens certainly did not predict the huge collapse in oil prices in the ensuing months, but appears adamant that his plan is still viable today. Let's listen to what Mr. Pickens had to say in an interview today on CNBC.<br />
<br />
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<br />
Ravi Nagarajan<br />
<a  href="http://www.rationalwalk.com">www.rationalwalk.com</a><br><b>Article syndicated from <a href="http://www.gurufocus.com">GuruFocus.com</a>, go to <a href="http://www.gurufocus.com">GuruFocus</a> for Warren Buffett's recent stock picks</b><br />
			<b><a href="https://www.gurufocus.com/membership/upgrade.php">Become GuruFocus Premium Member to See What Gurus Are Buying</a><br></b>]]></description>
            <pubDate>Wed, 08 Jul 2009 06:34:19 -0600</pubDate>
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        <item>
            <title>Survey of Wilbur Ross's Portfolio: Assured Guaranty Ltd. ...</title>
            <link>http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=59685</link>
            <description><![CDATA[<strong>(GuruFocus, July 7, 2009)</strong> <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=Wilbur+Ross">Wilbur Ross</a>, the billionaire made fortune by investing in distressed companies in steel and coal. This is from <a  href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wilbur_Ross"> the entry of Wilbur Ross</a> in Wikipedia:<blockquote> <br />
<br />
Wilbur L. Ross, Jr. is an American investor known for restructuring failed companies in industries such as steel, coal, telecommunications, foreign investment and textiles. He specializes in leveraged buyouts. In 2005, Forbes magazine listed Ross as one of the world's billionaires for the first time. He was ranked #346 the Forbes list of the 400 richest Americans, with an estimated net worth of $1.7B. According to a recent New York Times article, he has been bottom-fishing in mortgages and mortgage companies. He apparently commands far greater sums than his net worth would suggest.</blockquote> <br />
<br />
Recently, he is on the record in an interview with CNBC to say <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=59419">the recovery will be well into 2010</a>. <br />
<br />
Much of Wilbur's investment activity is not in stocks, and therefore not tracked by GuruFocus. However, he does has <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/holdings.php?GuruName=Wilbur+Ross">a very small equity portfolio</a> that we keep a record of and that portfolio is not doing very well since December 31, 2009, the last time he file record for. Since the beginning of the year, the portfolio matched S&P 500 Index but much more volatile. <br />
<br />
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<br />
Here is a brief survey of the four stocks he own:<br />
<br />
<strong>No. 1: Assured Guaranty Ltd. (<a href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?symbol=AGO">AGO</a>), Weightings: 65.45% - 12,166,396 Shares</strong> <br />
<br />
Assured Guaranty is a Bermuda-based holding company providing credit enhancement products to the municipal finance structured finance and mortgage markets. Assured Guaranty Ltd. has a market cap of $1.07 billion; its shares were traded at around $11.88 with a P/E ratio of 8.2 and P/S ratio of 2.1. The dividend yield of Assured Guaranty Ltd. stocks is 1.5%. <br />
<br />
Ross acquired 12.1 million shares of AGO in 2Q08 when the stock was around $18 per shares. <br />
<br />
<strong>No. 2: International Coal Group Inc. (<a href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?symbol=ICO">ICO</a>), Weightings: 26.63% - 24,537,423 Shares</strong> <br />
<br />
ICG is a leading producer of coal in Northern and Central Appalachia and the Illinois Basin. International Coal Group Inc. has a market cap of $397.6 million; its shares were traded at around $2.57 with a P/E ratio of 43 and P/S ratio of 0.4. <br />
<br />
Ross has 24.5 million shares of ICO. <br />
<br />
<strong>No. 3: Montpelier Re Holdings Ltd. (<a href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?symbol=MRH">MRH</a>), Weightings: 7.45% - 6,896,552 Shares</strong> <br />
<br />
Montpelier Re Holdings Ltd. through its operating subsidiaries is a premier provider of global specialty property reinsurance products. Montpelier Re Holdings Ltd. has a market cap of $1.18 billion; its shares were traded at around $13.32 with a P/E ratio of 11.4 and P/S ratio of 2.2. The dividend yield of Montpelier Re Holdings Ltd. stocks is 2.2%. <br />
<br />
Ross bought 6.9 million shares of MRH in 2Q08 held them since. <br />
<br />
<strong>No. 4: Valero Energy Corp. (<a href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?symbol=VLO">VLO</a>), Weightings: 0.46% - 45,000 Shares</strong> <br />
<br />
Valero Energy Corporation owns and operates refineries in the United States and Canada Valero Energy Corp. has a market cap of $8.52 billion; its shares were traded at around $16.65 with a P/E ratio of 3.2 and P/S ratio of 0.1. The dividend yield of Valero Energy Corp. stocks is 3.6%. Valero Energy Corp. had an annual average earning growth of 35.9% over the past 10 years. GuruFocus rated Valero Energy Corp. <a  href="http://www.gurufocus.com/predictable.php">the business predictability rank of 4.5-star</a>. <br />
<br />
Ross bought 45,000 shares of VLO in 4Q08. <br />
<br />
<br />
<br><b>Article syndicated from <a href="http://www.gurufocus.com">GuruFocus.com</a>, go to <a href="http://www.gurufocus.com">GuruFocus</a> for Warren Buffett's recent stock picks</b><br />
			<b><a href="https://www.gurufocus.com/membership/upgrade.php">Become GuruFocus Premium Member to See What Gurus Are Buying</a><br></b>]]></description>
            <pubDate>Tue, 07 Jul 2009 16:31:22 -0600</pubDate>
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        <item>
            <title>Gary Shilling: Recovery is a Year Away</title>
            <link>http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=59679</link>
            <description><![CDATA[Among economists, Gary Shilling owns one of the most prescient forecasting records, having accurately predicted the credit crisis and the performance of key asset classes over the last several years. Now, he says, the chances that the current wave of "green shoots" will be the finale to the recession are "pretty low."<br />
<br />
Shilling delivered his latest forecasts when he spoke at the Forbes Advisor Conference last week. <br />
<br />
Of the 11 post-World War II recessions, eight of them had at least one quarter of GDP growth. "Recessions are not a straight down affair," Shilling said. "They go back and forth." Stocks follow the same pattern as the economy, he said, and bear market rallies are the norm, not the exception.<br />
<br />
Excess housing inventories will hinder recovery for at least a year. Due to the long period of overbuilding, housing inventories are approximately 2 million higher than normal. "Excess inventories are the mortal enemy of prices," Shilling said. He predicted that more home equity will be wiped out, causing additional walk-aways and further problems for mortgage lenders.<br />
<br />
"If nothing happens to get rid of housing inventories, it will be the end of 2010 before inventories are worked down," he said. <br />
<br />
Shilling said, half-seriously, that excess housing could be bulldozed, though he noted that a financial institution in Austin, Texas, did just that. Fire sales can clear inventories, but only at the expense of knocking down prices in the rest of the neighborhood. Although he suggested, in an op-ed piece in The Wall Street Journal, that excess inventories be sold to immigrants with H1 visas in return for permanent resident status, he conceded that anti-immigration sentiment would not allow it.<br />
<br />
Time is the only catalyst to reduce housing inventories.<br />
<br />
Housing prices are down 32% from their peak; Shilling forecasts a 37% decline but warned that it could overshoot. "This is very debilitating and a strong depressant of consumer spending," he said.<br />
<br />
Indeed, consumer retrenchment will impede economic recovery. Shilling recalled how consumers reduced their savings rates in the 1980s and 1990s, using their equity portfolios as a source of wealth, and then seamlessly shifted to borrowing against residential real estate. Now, the average individual with a mortgage and 50% equity at the market peak has seen his equity dwindle to 22% -- with a decline to the mid-teens likely to come.<br />
<br />
Consumers today have no alternative but to save, Shilling said, and as a result will spend less for goods and services. Production cutbacks will result, causing layoffs and wage cuts, which in turn will lead to further cuts in spending. <br />
<br />
"This is a vicious cycle that must be broken before we get out of this mess," Shilling said.<br />
<br />
Fiscal stimuli are the logical solution, but Shilling is not satisfied with the efforts so far. In the first $787 billion package passed by Congress, he said, only $200 billion went toward true stimulus spending - infrastructure projects, increases in unemployment benefits, or tax cuts. The remainder went toward the Obama administration's social agenda, and will not lead to increased consumer spending.<br />
<br />
<a  href="http://www.advisorperspectives.com/newsletters09/Gary_Shilling-Recovery_is_a_Year_Away.php">Click to read the complete article</a><br />
<br />
Robert Huebscher<br />
<a  href="http://www.advisorperspectives.com"> www.advisorperspectives.com</a><br />
<br />
<br />
<br><b>Article syndicated from <a href="http://www.gurufocus.com">GuruFocus.com</a>, go to <a href="http://www.gurufocus.com">GuruFocus</a> for Warren Buffett's recent stock picks</b><br />
			<b><a href="https://www.gurufocus.com/membership/upgrade.php">Become GuruFocus Premium Member to See What Gurus Are Buying</a><br></b>]]></description>
            <pubDate>Tue, 07 Jul 2009 10:16:28 -0600</pubDate>
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            <title>Marty Whitman: The Outlook for Distressed Securities</title>
            <link>http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=59678</link>
            <description><![CDATA[Martin J. Whitman is the founder, Co-Chief Investment Officer, and Portfolio Manager of the Third Avenue Value Fund. He is a veteran value investor with a long, distinguished history as a control investor. His book,Distress Investing: Principles and Technique,which he co-authored with Syracuse University professor Fernando Diz, is available through the link above. We spoke with Mr. Whitman on June 29, 2009.<br />
<br />
<strong>As a distressed investor, what is different about investing during the current financial crisis?</strong><br />
<br />
I had never seen pricing as attractive as we saw last fall and this winter for performing loans - the type of distressed asset we prefer. We acquired debt with an 80% to 95% probability of yielding 25% or more to maturity or to an event [e.g., the bond being called]. In the 5% to 20% chance that we were wrong, and there would be a money default, we would still be okay in a reorganization. Pricing like that was never available before.<br />
<br />
Another big change occurred in recent years in small bankruptcy cases - those less than $300 million - where administrative expenses became so large that companies were forced to do a prepackaged bankruptcy or its equivalent. In the old days, much could be done through a conventional Chapter 11 even for smaller enterprises.<br />
<br />
For companies in reorganization, whether in court or out of court, it has never been more expensive. Companies are getting ripped off by professionals - lawyers and financial advisors - and by management like never before. For distressed investors like us, this environment has created great opportunities to make capital infusions directly into poorly financed businesses. We are very active in this area right now.<br />
<br />
<strong>You say that distress investing appeals because it involves analyzing the contractual and legal aspects of an opportunity, rather than macroeconomic factors. Is this still true in the current environment?<br />
</strong><br />
We really haven't had to do much on the macroeconomic front. If you are an adequately secured creditor, the general economic environment doesn't figure in too much. Macroeconomics becomes more important as you go down the capital structure. It is crucial in most common stock investing. <br />
<br />
The macroeconomic environment is the worst I have seen in my adult lifetime, which is why we have tended to invest in more senior securities than would otherwise be the case.<br />
<br />
<strong>At the end of last year you said you saw a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to buy companies that meet your investing criteria. Is that still true today?</strong><br />
<br />
We lost the unbelievable irrational pricing that existed in December of 2008, which was also when my book was finished. At that time, it was very easy to see exceptional opportunities in performing loans, such as those identified in the book: GMAC, Forest City, and MBIA, for example. These bonds offered yields to maturity or to an event of 30% or more. Now, when we buy comparable securities, the yields are closer to 20%. We are not buying a lot at 20%.<br />
<br />
<strong>Are you currently seeing more attractive opportunities in the credit or equity markets?</strong><br />
<br />
In the equity markets, the Third Avenue Value fund has a little more than half of its assets in eastern Asia, including a huge presence in mainland China. These investments offer a much higher beta. Credit investing is different in two important respects. First, you get a cash return, and, second, a very attractive benefit is that you are insulated from crazy price fluctuations in the stock market. We can hold securities with a 30% yield to maturity, and if we are right we get 30% no matter what happens in the securities markets. This is a source of great comfort.<br />
<br />
Academics fail to recognize the difference between cash return and total return investing. The only place we do cash return investing is in the credit markets. We don't invest in common stocks seeking a dividend return.<br />
<br />
Credit investing doesn't have anywhere near as high a beta as eastern Asian common stocks. With those stocks we seem to have reasonable prospects for a 10-bagger at some point over the next five to seven years. We won't do that well in the credit markets.<br />
<br />
For US-based taxpayers there is another important difference. In credit investing, any profits are taxed as ordinary income, whereas profitable equity investing almost always results in capital gains.<br />
<br />
<strong>One topic you discuss extensively is misconceptions about bankruptcy. From an investor's standpoint, what are the most important misconceptions?</strong><br />
<br />
The biggest misconception is that the company will go out of business. That is typically not the case. Companies survive bankruptcy, stockholders very often don't.<br />
<br />
Another great misconception is that companies are too big to fail. That is the wrong way to analyze these problems. The right question to ask is whether companies have become too big not to be reorganized. Failure can be defined as what happened in the cases of AIG and Lehman Brothers, when the common stockholders got wiped out. But these companies survived and their assets were put to other uses or other ownership. It doesn't make any sense to talk about "too big to fail."<br />
<br />
<strong>Has the government changed the game for bankruptcy investors through its handling of the Chrysler and GM bankruptcies? Have they set precedents that will permanently impair bondholder interests?</strong><br />
<br />
I don't think so. You have section 363 and the rule of absolute priority. But when there is more than one class of claimants participating in a reorganization under section 1129, you can abrogate the rule of absolute priority with the requisite vote by holders of a class of senior claim. Senior lenders can be forced to compromise their rights pursuant to a vote of two-thirds of the amount of the secured class and over half of the number of class member. Clearly, in Chrysler's case, when the TARP banks voted for the reorganization, these tests (of two-thirds of the claims and 50% of the number of creditors) were met, whether or not they were forced to sacrifice because of a section 363 sale.<br />
<br />
[Ed. Note: Section 363 of the bankruptcy code controls the use, sale, or lease of property and what constitutes cash collateral. The rule of absolute priority states that, in a bankruptcy, the claims of senior classes of creditors must be settled before those of more junior creditors. Section 1129 of the bankruptcy code controls the treatment of impaired classes of claims - claims that are not going to be paid completely or where some contractual right is altered.]<br />
<br />
The problem you have is the plan has to be proposed in good faith. In the case of Chrysler, answering the question of whether or not it was proposed in good faith is up to the judge, and he decided it was. Creditors have to be assured of getting more from the plan on the table than if the assets were liquidated. There was no valuation hearing but, if the assets were put under the hammer, the claim was that they would certainly be worth no more than $1 billion. But the senior creditors got $2 billion, so they were better off with the deal they got.<br />
<br />
The risks borne by Chrysler's creditors are the kind of risks creditors have always taken.<br />
<br />
<br />
<a  href="http://www.advisorperspectives.com/newsletters09/27-mwhitman3.php">Click to finish reading the complete article</a><br />
<br />
Robert Huebscher <br />
<a  href="http://www.advisorperspectives.com/">www.advisorperspectives.com</a><br><b>Article syndicated from <a href="http://www.gurufocus.com">GuruFocus.com</a>, go to <a href="http://www.gurufocus.com">GuruFocus</a> for Warren Buffett's recent stock picks</b><br />
			<b><a href="https://www.gurufocus.com/membership/upgrade.php">Become GuruFocus Premium Member to See What Gurus Are Buying</a><br></b>]]></description>
            <pubDate>Tue, 07 Jul 2009 09:47:49 -0600</pubDate>
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