Griz owner Michael Heisley told a group of season ticket holders that the team intends to match any offer Gay might receive as a restricted free agent this summer. Heisley spoke before the game at the team’s annual “State of the Franchise” Chalk Talk where season ticket holders could ask questions.

via Griz owner Michael Heisley told a group of season ticket holders that the team intends to match any… – Straight Outta Vancouver.

First, he couldn’t re-sign him because attendance wasn’t good enough. Then he said he would make every effort. Now he’s going to do it no matter what. …]]>

Griz owner Michael Heisley told a group of season ticket holders that the team intends to match any offer Gay might receive as a restricted free agent this summer. Heisley spoke before the game at the team’s annual “State of the Franchise” Chalk Talk where season ticket holders could ask questions.

via Griz owner Michael Heisley told a group of season ticket holders that the team intends to match any… – Straight Outta Vancouver.

First, he couldn’t re-sign him because attendance wasn’t good enough. Then he said he would make every effort. Now he’s going to do it no matter what.

So which is it?

I’m about to sympathize with Michael Heisley, so let’s all hold our noses as we plunge into this cesspool.

It’s an impossible situation. If he doesn’t re-sign Gay, no matter how overpaid the offer sheet may be, he’s a cheap owner. But Gay is simply not worth all that much. He’s worth a lot, don’t get me wrong. But he’s worth the most to the Grizzlies as a symbol that they’re willing to spend to compete. Which is something the fanbase, whatever’s left of it, needs.

The attendance in Memphis is bad news bears, pardon the pun. I support small markets. I stick up for small markets. I defend small markets. But the team has been over .500 for the vast majority of the season and was in the playoff hunt as recently as last night when Aaron Brooks hit his 900th three pointer. And yet attendance has been pathetic. Not bad. Pathetic. The Grizzlies have given Memphis every reason to come out and support this team, and instead, the city had basically decided what they thought about the Grizzlies back in October, and have refused to reconsider.

But if they’re going to buy back in, they have to believe this is a franchise committed to winning.  And Heisley’s discussions with the press are not helping matters, even if I can sympathize. The attendance thing? Does not need to be confused with the Rudy issue. If you want to win and think Gay is the way to get there, re-sign him. Don’t try and hold the fans hostage, because that’s not going to work. The people that care if you re-sign Rudy Gay? They’re already coming to the games, decked in blue. Furthermore, as much as it may suck, turning the issue into you being vilified, even if true, is not going to help matters. Who cares who the owner is? Ask Clippers or Warriors fans.

These complicating factors make it really difficult to get a good sense of the real problem here: Rudy Gay isn’t worth a max contract. He’s not worth anything near it. There are players younger than Gay with worse numbers that you can look at and say “That’s going to be a complete player.” With Gay, you’re left with the fact that he’s a pivotal part of this team and yet he’s not clocked in all the time. O.J. Mayo has his struggles. He’s gotten better at the rim, he’s killer from outside, but he has his shooting slumps and gets worn down on defense. But OJAM’s clocked in on every play, every night. Gay is clocked in for about 3/4 of the time. That other quarter is when you can’t figure out where he is or what he’s doing. The things Gay is tremendous at, creating that shifty leaning sideways runner, dunking in the open floor, nailing big shots, these are all valuable components for a contributing piece, not a centerpiece.

Neither Mayo, nor Gasol, and definitely not Randolph (due to age, not effort) may be the future of the Grizzlies, but you can look at their games and see them either becoming those primary components, or laying the foundation of a supporting cast for a true superstar. Gay doesn’t even work in that model, because he demands so much money. But if the Grizzlies let him walk, they’re unlikely to get a true superstar in return, through trade or free agency. They’re handcuffed by the market, and in return, are trying to handcuff the fans.

And the result is simply that both sides are tearing the Grizzlies apart, in what should be a hopeful time for them.

Today, we will have one of those moments.  Ask yourself this question:

Why do we care about assists? …]]> Sometimes we need to take a step back from it all and ask ourselves fundamental questions to find truth in our lives.

Today, we will have one of those moments.  Ask yourself this question:

Why do we care about assists?

I’m not saying we shouldn’t care about assists.  We should.  They tell us something, which is valuable.  But what exactly do they tell us?

An assist tells us when a player passed to someone and that pass lead directly to a made basket, but only it should only be recorded if the basket is made.  It is recorded in attempt to reward good passing.  Say Steve Nash passes to Jason Richardson who immediately nails an 18-footer from the wing.  Nash receives a token for his efforts in the form of a recorded assist.  The thought process being that we should award Nash some credit for Richardson’s made basket because he had something to do with that ball going in.

The assist represents an example of post hoc reasoning, or post ergo propter hoc. Translated into English, it means ”after this, therefore because (on account) for this.”  When this reasoning is incorrectly applied, it is referred to as the post hoc fallacy, which you’ve probably heard before.  The post hoc reasoning (or fallacy) states that if one event followed another, then it must have been caused by the original event.  A pass led to a bucket and therefore, it was a good pass.

Here’s where that reasoning becomes problematic.  How many times have you seen a player make a magnificent pass to a teammate, only for the teammate to subsequently blow it on the shot?  Countless times, I bet.  And how many times have you seen a great pass on a highlight reel where the player misses the shot? Almost never, right? We allow the shot result to influence our perception of the quality of the pass.  An outstanding pass transforms into highlight reel material or an assist only after the ball goes through the net.

Consider the following clip of Pau Gasol and Kobe Bryant:

Pau Gasol gets credit for only one assist because Kobe Bryant blew the dunk in the first play.  In reality, both passes were equally worthy of record.  When we speak of good passes or passes worthy of record, we’re subconsciously referring to passes that increase the chances of scoring from Moment A to Moment B.  In the first play of the clip, the chances of scoring when Pau Gasol has the ball 25 feet away from the rim (Moment A) pales in comparison to the chances of scoring after he rifles the pass to Kobe (Moment B).  Rather than changing it’s mind ex post facto, the ideal assist should try to capture that expected difference regardless whether Kobe Sprites it or not.

What we’re really after is the potential assist; a pass that directly leads to, not a made shot, but an attempted shot.  For some shots, a good pass is vital.  For others, the effect of a pass is negligible; the shooter would have made it anyway.  Unfortunately, passes that don’t lead to a made basket get lost in the black hole of basketball scorekeeping ignorance.  We don’t have any idea if threes are made more frequently if the shooter receives a pass as opposed to shooting off a pull-up J.  It’s a shame, really, because such information would be incredibly valuable for basketball research and analysis.

Well, thanks to 82games.com and their ultra-diligent charters, we no longer have to sit in the dark anymore.  A few years ago, they published a breakthrough study on their website that pulled the veil on good passing.  Rather than only focusing on made baskets, the team charted all shots and noted whether they were set up by a pass or not.  It’s a must read so go there and come back.  One of the several discoveries the 82 games team found in their charting was that non-assisted shots from close range are converted nearly 13 percent less than those that were set up by a pass.  Thirteen percent might not seem earth shattering but it is in the context of shooting.  Would you rather have Dwight Howard’s shooting percentage or Toney Douglas? That’s 13 percent.

Here’s the whole table from the outstanding study:

Interestingly, although most three-pointers are assisted (81 percent) according to 82games.com, the effect of a pass is smallest (+3.7 percent) compared to the others.  An assist on a close shot has over three times the impact.  In all, unassisted shots go went in .421 percent of the time whereas a pass propelled that figure up to .502 percent.   If you were wondering if passes really amount to anything, here’s your evidence.  All assists are not created equal.

These numbers take the macro view on the passing game and it would be foolish to assume that all players and shot types reflect the same percentage effects.  Certainly, there are personnel biases at play here and some particular point guards have no choice but to work within the confines of the offense sets.   Still, I wanted to apply these findings to the game’s best ball distributors and experiment how their assist total would change if we credited the assists according to each’s areas impact on FG%.  Last week, I asked how ball distributors get their assists with regard to high efficiency areas. This week, I’m asking a slightly different question: which players get their assists in shooting areas most impacted by the pass?

To get the quick and dirty measure, I set the average difference of 8.1% equal 1.  So an assist to a close shot receives a credit of 1.56 assists and likewise, a 3-point shot assist is credited 0.69 or ((3.7*1.5)/8.1) with the 1.5 adjusting for the bonus point.  Of course, there are several limitations to this exercise and should not be treated as an assist surrogate.  But it does shed more light about the assist variety.  Here’s the crop of the best in assists per game sorted by the difference in adjustment.

We find an interesting mix at the top.  Somewhat unexpectedly, Baron Davis paces the field and Mike Conley brushes shoulders with Deron Williams and Jason Kidd.  Why do they rank highly? By getting their assists in the areas most influenced by a set up pass.  Baron Davis feeds about 40 percent of his assists to chip shots around the rim which is far above than the average share.  On the other end, Jameer Nelson gives nearly 60 percent of his assists result to 3-pointers and dunks where the pass impact is generally low.

Note that New Orleans Hornets point guards Chris Paul and Darren Collison experience different effects after this adjustment.  Compared to his counterpart, Paul’s assists lead to a higher proportion of dunks to layups, which has pivotal implications on his differential.  I’m not sure how to coalesce the perceived immense value in Paul’s patented alley-oop floater with 82games.com’s dunk findings but I’d be willing to guess that a hybrid adjustment would be necessary.

Interestingly enough, the “impure” point guards gather at the bottom at the list.  Tyreke Evans, LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, and Dwyane Wade don’t receive a substantial upgrade by this measure because their dribble penetration play styles generate a high proportion of 3-point assists.  In fact, LeBron dishes out a 3-point assist nearly twice as often as his point guard Mo Williams.

Unfortunately, we’re limited to looking at these players using league average field goal percentage effects.  Admittedly, this a shortcoming that must be resolved before we get a complete picture of passers.  Some players cannot create their own shot off the dribble and have no choice but to get all three pointers from the catch-and-shoot (think Antawn Jamison).  They will undoubtedly experience varying passing effects than the norm.  Moreover, the component of foul shooting must be considered.  Read more about that in the 82games.com article.

In the end, if we get complacent and treat all assists the same, we’re missing out on the big picture of ball distributors.  We would benefit from rethinking the way assists are recorded and how we interpret those numbers in the box score.  With evidence to suggest close shots have are highly influenced by a pass, we can sharpen our approach in evaluating the impact of point guards and passing in general.  Hopefully after reading the last two articles, you’ll have a more complete understanding of the passing game and the drawbacks of the assist statistic design.  If anything, we must ask more questions and dig for more data to get at those elusive basketball truths that we seek.   I think I need an assistant.

Let’s get to some St. Patty’s Day Faces, yes? …]]> My favorite Irish folk tale goes a little something like this:

Let’s get to some St. Patty’s Day Faces, yes?

Lion Face: LeBron James
It’s kind of sick that we’ve arrived at the point in LeBron’s career in which these 32-point, nine-rebound, nine-assist performances don’t even really phase us. In reality, those are disgusting numbers and the fact that he’s still got at least a decade of greatness left makes me think he’s going to break every record in the book. But this is where we are. LeBron is THAT good to where these nights don’t even really register. LBJ just destroyed the Pacers even though the game was fairly close due to some hot three-point shooting by Indiana. After Brandon Rush blocked James inside, LeBron decided to embarrass Kareem Rush’s brother for the rest of the game. Well, embarrass isn’t really the right word. On a scale of embarrass to the kind of torture and torment you only see in those Saw or Hostel movies, I’d say it was somewhere in the middle. LeBron should apologize and send Brandon a nice fruit basket.

Lemon Face: New Jersey Nets
Okay, we’re getting dangerously close to this all-time worst team debacle. The Nets are now 7-61 on the season, which is a winning percentage of 10.3%. To avoid this dubious record, the Jersey Shore has to produce three wins in the final 14 games of the season. That’s a winning percentage of 21.4%. That means they have to more than double their season long output of the rate they win in order to beat a record and prove they aren’t the worst team of all time. I just don’t see that happening. Seven of those final 14 games are against playoff teams so those are out. That means they have to find three wins out of the lot of games against Sacramento, Detroit, Chicago and New Orleans at home and Chicago, Milwaukee and Indiana on the road. My condolences, Sebastian.

Lion Face: Samuel Dalembert
In giving the Nets their 61^st loss of the season, Samuel Dalembert did a yeoman’s job on shutting Brook Lopez completely down. He used his length and athleticism to change, alter and slap away shots. He helped contain Brook to just 12 points, which marks just the 14^th time he’d been held to 12 points or fewer this season. Other than Lopez beating out Sammy in scoring (12 to 10), Dalembert outplayed him in every other facet of the game. Sammy grabbed nine rebounds and blocked five shots in 37 minutes of basketball. He was a +20 on the night because he helped protect the rim and force the Nets into bad jump shots instead of them challenging at the basket.

Lemon Face: Hawks Defense
The Hawks did a fantastic job of frustrating Chris Bosh all night (6/19 shooting) and keeping him from dominating the game. But they failed to play much defense on anyone else in a confusingly green Raptors uniform. They let Hedo Turkoglu create like he still had Dwight Howard on his team. They let DeMar DeRozan explode for 19 athletic points. They let Andrea Bargnani dominate the game like his name was actually Andre. And when it came down to getting key stops, they allowed the Raptors to score three times in a row to end the game. Bosh got a hook shot in the lane over Josh Smith when no double team came, Hedo went to the free throw line against Crawford and then after a missed defensive rebound, Chris Bosh hit the game-winner with a step-back jumper over Horford. Not a strong finish for this Atlanta defense.

Lion Face: Hedo Turkoglu
Welcome to the 2009-2010 NBA season, Hedo. Nice of you to bring your enormous contract along too. Hedo looked a lot quicker against the Hawks defenders and found a way to get into the lane whenever he needed to. He was fast, concise with his moves and efficient in the way he attacked the defense. He only finished with 16 points, five rebounds and three assists but it was less about impressive numbers and more about him finally showing up. Considering the Raptors could play the Hawks in the first round of the playoffs, Hedo playing like this could actually give Toronto a shot of moving on past the first round. Granted, he has to play better than this and the rest of the Raptors can’t cower. But if we see this Hedo, we might see the Raptors be a more formidable playoff opponent than everyone expects.

Lemon Face: Homerish Fans
Someone in the Daily Dime Live chat on ESPN.com said that Tyson Chandler was an elite center. And he was serious. That’s unacceptable. That is all.

Lion Face: Stephen Graham
I’m as shocked to see this name in this category as you are if not more. Joey Graham’s doppleganger played against one of the hottest teams in the league and nearly played Kevin Durant to a standstill. He scored 19 points on 7/9 shooting in 30 minutes of play. Most of all, he shed his Graham-ness for one game and came out on top against one of the best players in the league. Much like the success of Lady Gaga, it just doesn’t make any sense.

Lemon Face: Kevin Durant
I really am only putting Kevin Durant on here because his team lost, he shot the ball horribly and I’ll probably never be able to justify him being on here ever again. 26 points on 26 shots with 10 rebounds and zero turnovers isn’t exactly Boumtje-Boumtje type of game. But for those of us that are about to suffer at the ruthless hands of Kevin Durant over the next 18 years, it’s a little bit of solace for us.

Lion Face: Vince Carter/Rashard Lewis
Just days after The Basketball Jones discussed their effectiveness, Vince Carter and Rashard Lewis responded by showing just how effective they can be together. They dismantled the Spurs with outside shooting and playmaking. Lewis had 20 points and made four of his six three-point attempts while Vince Carter more or less ran the show in Orlando. He scored 24 points on just 11 shot attempts to go with his eight assists. It didn’t matter what the Spurs threw at them. Actually, most of the time the defense was so bad on the side of the Spurs that Lewis and Vince had free reign to let it fly without much resistance.

Lemon Face: Tim Duncan
Five points, a minus-21 and 1/10 shooting in just 25 minutes on the floor for the greatest power forward of all-time. I don’t know that I really want to discuss this further. It’s kind of depressing me.

Lion Face: Aaron Brooks
You know who could score Wednesday night? Aaron Brooks let it fly and ended up knocking down every long-range shot he took en route to his game-high 31 points. He was seven for seven from three-point range and 11/14 total. The Grizzlies backcourt of O.J. Mayo and Mike Conley simply couldn’t handle him. He was like one of those wild cubs you see on public access talk shows who all of a sudden go nuts on the handler or show host. There was no warning of it. Just quick strikes followed by some yelling, confusion and utter joy for a select group of people.

Lemon Face: Minnesota Timberwolves
You’ve given up 274 points in the last 96 minutes of basketball. You’re pretty much dead to me for now. We’ll see where our relationship is when/if you bring Ricky Rubio over to the states.

Lion Face: Hasheem Thabeet
In a Bizarro NBA world in which Tim Duncan is terrible and other people are not, Hasheem Thabeet was actually pretty good against the Rockets. He started for Marc Gasol who was out with a neck and he played pretty decently. He was on the court for 27 minutes total and tallied eight points, ten rebounds, four blocks, a steal and five fouls. The majority of his effectiveness happened in the first eight minutes of play but the point is that the guy everyone assumes won’t be in the NBA for very long actually looked like he belongs. And that’s because he does. Great showing for him. You can see he benefitted from the D-League.

Lemon Face: Kevin Love
In the 43 minutes of play since Love returned from a strained left foot, he’s scored six points, grabbed 10 rebounds and shot just 1/11 from the floor. He looks terrible out there. I don’t think it’s a matter of him being out of shape from missing time. I don’t think he’s 100% healthy out there and with the pathetic displays of competitive spirit that the team is putting out there right now, I don’t see why Love should play until he is completely healthy. Don’t mess with this man’s feet. Treat him like Frank Costanza. Nobody goes near his feet!

Lion Face: Golden State Warriors
No Steph Curry? That’s not a big deal. The Warriors used a 43-25 fourth quarter domination to turn a potential loss into a homemade win that couldn’t have been a better promotion for the importance of the NBDL. Chris Hunter had 17 points off the bench. Reggie Williams had 22 off the bench. Anthony Tolliver was the team-high scorer with 30 on 11/19 shooting. Some guy named Monta Ellis also had 28 points and 13 assists. This was a fast-paced game that saw both teams shoot over 50% and combine for 58 fast-break points. 131 points later, the Warriors came out on top.

Lemon Face: Darren Collison
Please stop turning the ball over. Please. I beg you. Stop flirting with bad triple-doubles. I just want you to be efficient and you can’t do that when you’re handing the ball over to the other team. Eight turnovers are way too many. Hell, half of that is too many. Please just be careful out there. We’re worried about you.

Lion Face: Brandon Jennings Yahtzee
Brandon Jennings got hot sometime in the second half of this game and made it pretty interesting. He found his stroke by going 9/16 from the field, 3/7 from three for 21 points. He also had a weird Yahtzee like box score with fives all across the board. He had five defensive rebounds, five total rebounds, five assists, five turnovers and five personal fouls. That’s just weird and not exactly the 5X5 fantasy guys beg for. Even though he lost, it was fun to see his shot get back on track after a three-month hiatus.

Lemon Face: Brandon Jennings Twitter Smack
Jennings tweeted this after getting to Sacramento, “Just landed in SAC, smells like cows.” Now, I know he only got that from Phil Jackson because he was living in Los Angeles when Phil made those comments all those years ago. And when he was auditioning for the draft in June, he certainly wasn’t talking that weak, tired, unoriginal trash when he was begging for the Kings to take him with the fourth pick. But most disturbing from all of this is that he currently lives in Wisconsin. Isn’t Wisconsin the Cheese State? Cheese! Cows! You can’t live in a place with a ton of cows and then make fun of a city that doesn’t have cows. It just doesn’t make any sense. I guess they teach you that stuff in college.

Lion Face: Clippers Coaching
I’m going to keep this brief because I’m a little afraid that the apocalypse might be near because of this occurrence tonight. The Clippers made a coaching adjustment against the Bucks that was brilliant and stopped them from running an effective offense. The Clippers went to a soft zone and took away the majority of the quality shots and good passing lanes the Bucks were enjoying for much of the night. Let’s acknowledge it now and never speak of it again.

I don’t know how your Monday was, but this was Karl’s: He’d coached the Nuggets to a 12-point win over Portland the night before. Didn’t hit the sack until 1. Got up at 5. Was at the hospital by 6. Had surgery at 6:30 to put in the stomach tube that, coming soon, will be the only way he’ll eat. Out of surgery at 7. Radiation at 8. Home by 10. Nap. Then started working on preparing for the Minnesota game.

His doctors have called his cancer “treatable,” but as a prostate cancer survivor from 2005, he knows there’s no guaranteed contract with the dragon. Still, he refuses to play the victim card. “Nothing I do is painful,” he tells the press.

via Rick Reilly: George vs. The Dragon – ESPN. …]]>

I don’t know how your Monday was, but this was Karl’s: He’d coached the Nuggets to a 12-point win over Portland the night before. Didn’t hit the sack until 1. Got up at 5. Was at the hospital by 6. Had surgery at 6:30 to put in the stomach tube that, coming soon, will be the only way he’ll eat. Out of surgery at 7. Radiation at 8. Home by 10. Nap. Then started working on preparing for the Minnesota game.

His doctors have called his cancer “treatable,” but as a prostate cancer survivor from 2005, he knows there’s no guaranteed contract with the dragon. Still, he refuses to play the victim card. “Nothing I do is painful,” he tells the press.

via Rick Reilly: George vs. The Dragon – ESPN.

I actually talked with George Karl for about thirty seconds. It was at All-Star Weekend and I wanted to ask him about his son, Coby, and his continued pursuit of an NBA job in the D-League. It was a thirty second encounter, so I promise I’m not going to make too much of it, only to say that seeing a 25-year NBA head coach’s eyes light up when asked about his son was something remarkable and memorable for me. He also could have given me a two word answer and moved on, but he was gracious, considerate, and polite.

The article above is about Karl, but it’s also about something else. It’s about cancer. You probably know someone who’s had it. My mom has had it. She was diagnosed almost a year ago with breast cancer. The day I found out I felt like I was walking around after a bomb had fallen. I was in shock. I went to the grocery store and stared at a cereal box for about five minutes before a lady asked me if I was okay. Trying to understand that fear is something I’ll never forget. It’s so big, so enormous. Death can take a lot of forms: quick and threshing, soft and painless, sudden and cruel. But to me, cancer just seemed like this massive thing against which I could not begin to understand its enormity, only the extreme likelihood of it crushing me.  And I wasn’t even the one that had it.

Luckily, my mom is quite the scrapper, my father the vigilant husband obsessed with doctor’s appointments, and my family not one of the millions that face each day without health insurance. She was supported, educated, and determined. More than anything she was brave in a way I could not understand or expect. It was, if you only look at the basic facts, not a big deal. Got cancer,got treatment, beat it, and a year later, went to the beach.

But the shadow the diagnosis left remains with me, and it left a mark on my mother as well, long after the scars have faded. For her, survival is a badge of pride that comes with a responsibility: to share with others so they will understand that the fight isn’t over before they ring the bell. For me, it was a window into the fragility of our health as beings, and a reminder to hold on to those moments that matter. Writing that does in fact cause the gag reflex it’s likely causing in you, but some cliches seem to gain more relevance as you get older. (Note: “Hand down, man down” does not.)

You’ve likely had your own experience, your own brush with this thing that takes, shapes, and ruins so many lives. But no matter what your experiences are, please read Reilly’s segment with George Karl. Karl could have hid away during his treatment. God knows I would have. But he’s stronger than that. Not only is he trying to work in one of the most difficult jobs possible before you start to consider the drain on his health, but he’s allowing people access, so they can see, so they can be inspired, so that maybe changes will come as a result of understanding what he’s going through.

It’s difficult to not get emotional when you see TNT or ESPN footage of players coming to hug Karl, to shake his hand, to give him encouragement. It’s difficult for me not to remember the cards and letters sent to my mom, and the phone calls from friends to me when word got around. It’s a uniquely human experience that can work to bind us, and if you want basketball relevance, it could be a wild card that binds the Nuggets together in a way no other team has. Ubuntu’s got nothing on a cancer survivor.

And at the end of the day, when Karl beats this thing, and we’re back to writing snarky lines about his inability to effectively draw up a double-team on Kobe, we may forget about this ordeal. But if sharing his story makes an impact the way it should, that’s a bigger win than anything that can happen on the floor.

Please read the article and share it.

P.S. If you’re wondering if I totally used my mom’s cancer to con Paroxi-Wife into doing chores for me, I very much did so. And then paid the price.

I will tell you a tale that may or may not be a prediction of what is about to happen to the Celtics. You decide……

The Celtics are one of the oldest teams playing in the NBA. One of their bigs is considered by many to be out of shape, overweight, and well past his prime. Many believe he’s tanking games, and accuse him of never trying, not defending, not doing his job, etc. Their cherished star forward is also aging, ailing and playing far below his own standard.

As the regular season winds down, the Cs are looking dangerously unready. They lose to bad teams. They look disinterested and dispirited. And they keep losing. They will no doubt end the season with an unhappy record of less than 50 games won, good for just 4th seed in the East. Most people, including their own fans, believe they'll be one and done in the playoffs, or at best, eliminated in the second round. …]]>

I will tell you a tale that may or may not be a prediction of what is about to happen to the Celtics. You decide……

The Celtics are one of the oldest teams playing in the NBA. One of their bigs is considered by many to be out of shape, overweight, and well past his prime. Many believe he’s tanking games, and accuse him of never trying, not defending, not doing his job, etc. Their cherished star forward is also aging, ailing and playing far below his own standard.

As the regular season winds down, the Cs are looking dangerously unready. They lose to bad teams. They look disinterested and dispirited. And they keep losing. They will no doubt end the season with an unhappy record of less than 50 games won, good for just 4th seed in the East. Most people, including their own fans, believe they'll be one and done in the playoffs, or at best, eliminated in the second round.

But the Celtics will wake up the day the playoffs begin. They will start playing with urgency and focus. They will start looking like the Celtics of old. They will FLIP THEIR SWITCH!

**********************************

Your decision? Will this, or will this not happen?

Are you done?

Good. Here is the answer:

It happened. To the 1968-69 Celtics, who, after finishing the regular season with a dismal record of 48-34, beat Jerry West and the heavily-favored Lakers in the 7th game of the 1969 Finals.

Note: The 2010 Celtics’ record will be better than 48-34.

:::::Anything is possible:::::

via Is this our season? – RedsArmy.com – The Voice Of Celtics Fans.

If the Celtics get rolled by the Bucks, or Bobcats in round one, then we’ll say we saw it the whole way through, and Celtics’ fans will be crushed.

If the Celtics make it out of round one, then get pillaged by Orlando or Cleveland, we’ll say we saw it the whole way through, and the Celtics’ fans will likely target a system of excuses, as is a fan’s right.

If the Celtics somehow figure out Orlando or Cleveland and make it to the ECF, then lose, we’ll say they showed more than what they did in the regular season, but the flaws were still evident early on, and Celtics fans will, again, target a system of excuses, as is a fan’s right.

If they make the Finals and lose, we’ll say they were as good as we thought they could be, better than how they looked, just not as good as LA. Celtics fans will take solace in losing to a “worthy” rival.

If they win the title, it will be the biggest “flipjob” in the history of the sport.

In a stark contrast to my usual eagerness to put the tombstone up before a conventional contender’s body is cold, I’m really second-guessing myself in regards to the Celtics. This sounds insane after they got “toyed with” as Russillo said on the B.S. Report by the Cavs, after looking human-to-bad for months, but a voice in the back of my head keeps bugging me. It keeps saying the same thing over and over again.

“This is too easy.”

If you remember last year, at this time, people weren’t talking about the Lakers. They were talking about the Cavs. Top seed, most wins, unstoppable, MVP-led Cleveland. So while to me it was obvious the Lakers were winning the title (which wasn’t exactly decoding pi), it wasn’t unanimous. But the Celtics are trickier. Most everyone outside of Boston and Tim Legler (who was talking about the Celtics’ late season additions of Robinson and Finley as the best in the league on ESPN radio last weekend, causing me to nearly swerve off the road) think the Celtics have blood in the water, and they ain’t the sharks.

But that’s just too easy, isn’t it? The constant losses to contenders, and the worst teams in the league, the talk of boredom which leads almost to reinforce their confidence and obliviousness to genuine problems, all of it is just too obvious.

Or am I overthinking it?

Wouldn’t dismissing a team with Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, Rajon Rondo, and Kendrick Perkins be borderline disastrous? Wouldn’t ignoring their experience and knowledge of themselves be reprehensible? Wouldn’t constantly talking in rhetorical questions get really obnoxious (bit late for that, Matthew)?

I go back every thirty seconds, simply because the Celtics haven’t just been “kind of bad.” They were point blank outclassed against Cleveland. They never really threatened. When they pulled within 10, the Cavs just gave the ball to LeBron, he calmly drew free throws, and that was all. This in a game where the Celtics caught a break and the Cavs missed free throws like their jibblets were frozen solid.

Celtics fans have been reduced to turning to the ‘69 team for comfort (which is appropriate, since that was when RayAllen and KG graduated high school -BA-DUM-DUM-DUM). We’re all writing them off. Someone is kidding themselves. And it drives me nuts that we’ve got to wait thirty days to find out who.

So let’s get down to business right away.

How bout it, gents? …]]> With such a face-filled night of basketball, there’s really no need for me to attempt to come up with a clever intro that somehow gets me to seamlessly incorporate the Matt Damon-Ben Affleck clip we always run here.

So let’s get down to business right away.

How bout it, gents?

Lion Face: Do What Toney Douglas Do
What is it that Toney Douglas do, you ask? Whatever the hell he wants, apparently. Toney Douglas was one of those late first round sleepers that I loved before the draft. It all started when I was able to attend his pre-draft workout with the Sacramento Kings. He was matched up against guys like Stephen Curry and Tyreke Evans. Did he dominate? No. But did he get dominated? Not from what I saw. He held his own defensively. He wasn’t afraid offensively. It was just an impressive display of confidence for a guy that should be overmatched. Ever since then, I’ve been a fan and dedicated to the love that Posting and Toasting loves to give him. Against the Sixers, he got the start and made the most of it. He seemingly did more in one game than Chris Duhon has done all year. He picked Willie Greene at halfcourt for a layup and the foul. He finished the night with 20 points, seven assists and three steals. He should be starting for the Knicks the rest of the year. That is unless they want to tank.

Lemon Face: Andre Iguodala’s Shooting
Andre Iguodala was letting it fly against the Knicks. Maybe Tracy McGrady going 4/5 from three-point range inspired him. I’m not quite sure. Or maybe he thought that he should validate Rodney Carney’s comments about it being impossible for players to tank. But one thing is certain of this night: Andre Iguodala couldn’t get his shot to fall. He was 0/7 from three and he was 1/11 from outside of the key overall. I’m no mathematician but that’s a very low percentage of shots made. He was only 4/11 inside the paint and finished 5/22 for 14 points. Valiant effort but he should have realized David Lee was the big man inside and attacked him more.

Lion Face: Andre Iguodala’s Effort
But you can’t completely kill Iggy for the poor shooting. He did make an effort and crash the glass when his shot wasn’t falling. He finished with 17 rebounds overall and grabbed five offensive rebounds. Also, his defense was pretty decent in the game. It wasn’t otherworldly like we expect from him but other than some T-Mac threes he defended well. Just wasn’t enough to overcome his poor shooting.

Lemon Face: Deeeeeetroit Basketbaaaaaaaall?
I don’t even know what to say about the Pistons now. They’re just bad and headed nowhere. You like to hope that Rodney Stuckey is headed somewhere for them but if they get the number one pick, wouldn’t they just take John Wall and punt Rodney Stuckey for another piece to the puzzle? They have Ben Gordon signed to all that money but failed to realize that he won’t make them better unless they’re already in the playoffs. Hoping you get something from their big men is the basketball equivalent of playing Russian roulette. Someone is going to get hurt and everyone is going to feel horrible about it. Two years ago, the Boston-Detroit matchup meant something special. Now it just meant a cure-all for what was ailing Boston. My condolences, Mo-town.

Lion Face: Samuel Dalembert
Was it against the Knicks and the defensive saloon door, David Lee? Absolutely. But Sammy still came up big and did a fine job of controlling the interior. He had 11 points, 18 rebounds and three blocks. He had a nice drop step dunk against David Lee that resulted in a three-point opportunity. He had nine offensive rebounds in the game. It’s not exactly reinventing the wheel or anything like that but it was still a very solid game from a consistently inconsistent interior player.

Lemon Face: Rajon Rondo
I know that Will Bynum is a stick of dynamite on the court but Rajon Rondo didn’t play a good game at all. He should dominate Bynum because he’s just as quick and yet a lot longer and better. Instead, he scored just three points on 1/5 shooting. Yes he had six assists and four steals in 29 minutes of action but he shouldn’t be putting up such mediocre stats against such a mediocre team. A win is a win is a win but Rajon is better than that.

Lion Face: Celtics Bench
61 points on 25/37 shooting for the Boston bench. Everybody scored in the game. Three guys off the bench finished in double figures and two other guys finished with at least eight points. I think the Celtics would take half of that production for the playoffs this year. It would be nice to see the Celtics bench step up like this when it matters because we’ll all benefit from the elevated play in the second season.

Lemon Face: Defense
In the Houston-Denver shootout, there were 94 made baskets, 16 threes, 44 made free throws and only 18 turnovers (with just 12 points off of turnovers) for the two squads. It resulted in 248 points. The Rockets had a 38-point first quarter. The Nuggets had a 38-point third quarter. And I had a lot of fun watching these two teams exchange haymakers like Balboa-Creed. In fact, it was JUST LIKE Apollo Creed and Rocky going at it. There were a lot of shots to the face without either boxer putting their hands up to block.

Lion Face: Carmelo Anthony
Carmelo Anthony is a very good basketball player. And he’s a transcendent scorer in pretty much every way. He never overwhelms you with his scoring and yet it’s still suffocating at the same time. It’s very sneaky the way the barrage hits you. You realize he’s scoring a lot and yet you’re not overly impressed until you realize a couple minutes later, “Holy crap! Melo is scoring A LOT!” Against the Rockets, he took the theme of the no defense game and ran with it. He peppered the Rockets with jumpers from all over the floor. He also scored inside with 20 seconds left to tie the game. He also got a good look at the end of the game from three that would have won it but he misfired on the shot. Carmelo’s offense seems to be waiting for you to fall asleep. Once you do, it’s standing there over you with a pillow, hoping to take the life from you.

Lemon Face: Jerry Sloan
I don’t know if I should blame Deron Williams for this too but ultimately, it falls on Jerry Sloan to protect his players. At the end of the third quarter, the Jazz were up 30 and they still had Deron Williams in the game. Well, he hurt his leg near the end of the period when he shouldn’t have even been on the court. With two other point guards on the roster and a shooting guard who is capable of handling the dribbling, there’s no excuse for Deron to be out there for no reason. The Jazz are lucky the injury wasn’t serious and he’ll be able to continue fighting off the Thunder for homecourt advantage in the first round.

Lion Face: Brooks and Martin
Yes, it sounds like either a country music duo or some type of bourbon but Brooks and Martin is becoming one of the most fun backcourts in the league. Against the Rockets, they combined for 60 points on just 33 shots. Kevin Martin moved perfectly without the ball and his cutting through the lane seemed to open things up for everybody. And Brooks was just electric all night. Brooks also had nine assists to go with his 31 points and eventual game-winning jumper with 2.9 seconds left. And don’t forget that these guys did this against a damn good defensive backcourt of Billups and Afflalo.

Lemon Face Lion Face: Johan Petro
I’m so confused right now. Johan Petro caught passes. He made jumpers. He made free throws. Rebounds didn’t bounce off of his hands. This is not a world I’m prepared to live in. Let’s just move on.

Lion Face: Darren Collison
Obviously, Collison hasn’t had enough opportunities to challenge for the Rookie of the Year consideration. He just hasn’t been doing more than Evans and Curry and he hasn’t been playing at this high level for nearly as long (not his fault; he had a pretty good player in front of him). In the month of February, he won Rookie of the Month in the West because of his 21-8-3.9 averages. The problem was he also averaged 4.8 turnovers per game. Well this month, I think he’s been even better. He’s averaging 16.1 points, 11.4 assists and he’s cut the turnovers to 3.7 per game. Against the Clippers, he threw up an 18-point, 14-assist performance. Yes he still had four turnovers but he played the entire game and stood toe-to-toe with a motivated Baron Davis. Most importantly, Hornets got the win on the road. Kid is legit and deserves to be on the All-Rookie 1^st team (I’m not sure if they go by position but the All-Rookie 1st team should definitely be all guards this year).

Lemon Face: Al Thornton
Somebody had to represent this Wizards team for their horrendous performance Monday night and he went 1/9 for four points and four rebounds in 25 minutes of play. Seems justifiable if you ask me.

Lion Face: Baron Davis
Baron Davis had 18 points on 14 shots, which is really nice for a guy who has shot so horribly all season long. But even more impressive is the 17:1 assist to turnover performance he put out there against the Hornets. Darren Collison is not a bad defensive point guard. But he couldn’t slow down the strength and creativity of Baron. Fear the Beard when he’s giving a damn.

Lemon Face: Chris Kaman
Emeka Okafor is a really good defensive big man but 3/15 from the field and just three rebounds is inexcusable.

Lion Face: Pau Gasol
Is there anyone in this league that can guard him when he’s making that left-handed half-hook over his right shoulder? Chuck Hayes couldn’t stop it and neither could Dwight Howard. When he has that going, he’s pretty much unguardable so when he’s doing that against the Warriors, you know the Dubs are in trouble. His 26 points on 13 shots were a steadying force against the rag-tag Warriors. The Warriors tried to trick the Lakers into playing their game. They made them run and for the most part, it worked. But every once in a while when the Lakers were losing their way, they’d get wise and dump it into Pau. He’d calmly score and set things right in the basketball universe. In fact, the Lakers were completely stupid for not getting this man 20 shots.

Lemon Face: Andrew Bynum… hear me out on this
This is going to seem like I’m picking on Andrew Bynum because I always find a way to pick on Andrew Bynum. And yes, ultimately a 19-point, 14-rebound performance is pretty good. But he was kind of terrible against the Warriors. He should be destroying people inside against the Warriors like that creature in Cloverfield. Instead, he turned the ball over eight times (!) and managed to transplant his hands with one from Kwame Brown and the other from Johan Petro of three years ago. You can never truly rely on him catching a quick pass. Although, I do like that he went 7/8 from the line.

Lion Face: Chris Hunter
Not sure who Chris Hunter is? Don’t worry about it; you’ll have plenty of time to learn his name. In a day in age in which guys like the Collins brothers, Jerome James and Steve Hunter get paid to be tall, Chris Hunter has worked his tail off to get from the D-League to a regular spot on an NBA team. Is he taking advantage of the various Warriors’ injuries in the frontcourt in order to get this hard work to pay off? Absolutely. But he’s still putting in the work and getting results. Against the Lakers big front line, he managed to put in 22 points and seven of the Warriors’ 25 rebounds. He made all six of his free throws and kept his bigger opposition honest with scoring inside and outside. I love when guys like this get rewarded for working hard, rather than just being tall.

Lemon Face: Monta Ellis
WOW, this guy killed his team tonight. You might remember me trying to open up the dark side of his impressive stats earlier in the season. Well, against the Lakers Monta just continued to jack up shot after shot despite the fact that Steph Curry, Corey Maggette and basically anyone not named Monta Ellis was having a relatively easy time scoring against the Lakers. Yes, Monta had 11 assists and five steals. But he went to the free throw line just two times and made just five of his 23 shots. It’s not that he was missing shots. It’s that he was MISSING shots! And the final play of the game kind of summed up his night perfectly. After Curry missed the wide-open, game-tying three Monta grabbed the rebound. He looked for Curry to kick it out to but Curry was standing out of bounds. Kobe was retreating to guard CJ Watson in the right corner so Monta high-tailed it out to the top of the three-point arc. He turned, fired and had his desperation attempt bounce around a few times before falling off the side of the rim. It was a valiant effort but considering he had Anthony Morrow all by himself (Celine Dion style), he once again made a horrible decision.

One last thing, too many people are going to make a big deal over Ellis “smiling” after missing the three. It was sort of a smile-grimace in which he knew he had a chance to tie the game and instead he missed the shot. He wasn’t happy with missing the three. He was upset. But with the shot he took and the bounces it had before it fell outside of the cylinder, that face really isn’t the end of competition as some will make it out to be.

Lion Face: Kobe Bryant
The nine turnovers were bad. He was so careless with the ball and just didn’t take care of it. That’s not something you expect from Mamba. Maybe this guy but not Mamba:

However, Kobe did still score an efficient 29 points – 9/18 shooting, 2/4 from three (one of them was a BIG three) and 9/11 from the free throw line (one big miss that nearly cost them the win). Kobe always seems to be in control, even when he’s dribbling and passing the ball all over the place. He got caught up a little too much in the pissing match with Monta and Steph but overall, he always had this game in hand. The Lakers took his confidence and calm and made the plays when they had to. Did they have to rely on a fortunate bounce against a team they should destroy? Yes. But that’s the Lakers team we need to get used. They play to their competition. Lucky for them, their competition will be good in the playoffs.

Lemon Face: Shannon Brown
Remember months ago when Lakers fans were lauding Shannon Brown as one of the top reserve guards in the league? He was a guy that “changed the game” and “played good defense” against better guards. He deserved to be in the dunk contest too. Well, he’s actually not very good. He certainly can’t shoot. And his defense is pretty bad. He’s the exact body type and level of athleticism you’d want guarding Curry or Monta or Watson. And yet they all scored quite easily against him.

Lion Face: Stephen Curry
There’s no denying this kid’s talent. I still don’t think he can be the Rookie of the Year because he’s been good since the beginning of January and Tyreke Evans has been doing it consistently since the fifth game of the year. But there’s no shame in being the runner-up to only the fourth rookie in NBA history to put up 20-5-5. Curry plays perfectly into the style of the Warriors. Get up the court, get to the basket and when given daylight you should throw up a shot from beyond that little arc on the court. Curry’s not just a shooter, either. He can get to the rim, get crafty around the basket and also find his teammates in the position most advantageous for them to score. Can Curry steal the Rookie of the Year award? I’ve been saying no for months but at this point, he’s getting a lot more national exposure than Tyreke can get. He’s playing big on national TV, which is an opportunity Tyreke isn’t afforded. Maybe with a strong final month, he can trick enough voters to remember his name come ballot time.

With games like 29 points and nine assists against the best team in the league coming through the ESPN broadcast truck, it’s not so far-fetched anymore to think he can rob Evans of the award.

• Let’s start with Tyreke Evans. I saw his line last night, and checked STR for the Reke-O-Meter. Evans has been on a rebounding tear, and now needs to average less than his current average in order to clear the mythical 20-5-5.  I’m a little shocked why this race has not gotten more attention. It’s a set of requirements that puts Evans in a group with Robertson, Jordan, and LeBron James, along with Charlie Scott. And Evans is not just within sight of it. He’s got a comfortable lead in assists (but no, really, he’s not a real point guard, yank-yank). Scoring is unlikely to be the issue. And he’s picked up his rebounding. This is something truly phenomenal, and he’s way ahead of his competitors for rookie of the year. I expected Evans to be good. I did not expect him to be this good.
• In other stat-related news, guess who’s within range of another 50-40-90 season? Steve Nash, and it’s pretty comfortable. So is Nicolas Batum, but the kid missed too many games for it to be relevant. Nash, though, has been ridiculous . He’ll also be the oldest player to accomplish it since… himself, last year. An absolutely outstanding achievement.
• Speaking of the Suns, anyone caught Amar’e lately? This is the close I’ve seen him look to his “proper self” pre-Shaq since Shaq arrived. If the playoffs started today the Suns would play Dallas, which would be basketball cocaine. Also, I don’t think the Suns are a good matchup for Utah at all. They Jazz are 2-0 versus the Suns, but the Suns’ unstable style of play could cause them fits. However, it should be noted that Utah has a ridiculously easy stretch coming up, with six of their next ten against lottery teams, and the Hornets (probably lottery) and Toronto (possible lottery) thrown in. Their “tough game” from now till April is Boston. Insert joke here.
• Speaking of Boston, loved Freek’s work on the Boston-Cleveland game yesterday:
• Paroxi-wife asked me what I thought about Jamison fitting in, and I said I think it’s actually working great, despite his shooting percentages. He’s doing what he needs to do, which is spread the floor and then crash inside. The number of at-rim shots he had lip out yesterday was I think four. If Boston wants to keep leaving him open on the perimeter, that’s not a good idea either.
• On the C’s, when did this team stop closing out on the perimeter? We’re not talking a half-ass effort, we’re talking them being a step behind to where they’re not even trying because they know they can’t get there. It’s a significant problem. The Magic have taught teams that if they make the extra pass, they’re going to get an open three. And that’s a high percentage look for a lot of teams in the playoffs.
• What’s worse for the Celtics is they were barraged for 40 minutes by the other Cavs, and when they finally started to clamp down, James took over and just drove relentlessly, picking up foul after foul. There was nothing they could do. At one point Perkins was trying to check James. PERKINS. AT MID-RANGE. TRYING TO CHECK. LE.BRON. And every time the Celtics would hit a three to pull the lead to ten, there’d go LeBron, right to the rim, feasting on old legs with his fresh ones. He didn’t have to carry that team for 40 minutes, which meant he could for the final eight. Terrifying.
• The Thunder keep blowing my mind with their defense. The offense I expect. Russell Westbrook is capable of 30 and 11. He’s just that good. Durant is a known quantity and the rest of the team is solid-to-good. But the defense? For guys that young to be playing with that kind of dedication? They swarm to the ball on penetration, and recover as fast as any team, because of those fresh legs. They’re rarely caught in mismatches, and they surge so strong, it’s like waves coming over the bow. The inexperience makes them a favorable first-round matchup, but the talent and execution make you think twice.
• I’ve watched four Nets games this week. That’s a lot for one of the “worst” teams in history. I’ve been saying it, and I will continue to say it. They are just not that bad. Incomplete? Definitely. Young? Definitely? Terrible bench? Absolutely. But there is a lot of legit talent on that team, including Courtney Lee, who’s going to be a serviceable starting small guard for years, at a position that’s tough to find talent you can reasonably pay. And Terrence Williams is playing in a relevant, meaningful way for an irrelevant, meaningless team.
• I can’t watch the Raptors anymore. I just can’t do it. Can’t watch that defense any longer. They and the Warriors have gotten me to the point it makes me physically sick to watch them play basketball, which is sad, because I like a lot of their talent.
• It’s really early after a fairly impressive win streak, but I just want to say, I can already see the same late-season cracks in the Utah pavement that I saw last year. They’ve been better this year than they were last year, but I still wanted to get this in writing that I’m seeing some fault lines developing.

Believe it or not, Tyreke Evans doesn’t clamor for this kind of attention.

In fact, all the attention of the rally for Evans to be Rookie of the Year tonight had Evans feeling a bit embarrassed.

That’s right: Embarrassed. …]]>

Believe it or not, Tyreke Evans doesn’t clamor for this kind of attention.

In fact, all the attention of the rally for Evans to be Rookie of the Year tonight had Evans feeling a bit embarrassed.

That’s right: Embarrassed.

“A little bit,” Evans conceded. “They had the NBA All Stars up there (on the jumbotron) talking about my game. I was trying not to let it get to me.”

Evans, of course, turned in a 19 point, 10 rebound, 10 assist effort on a night in which so much attention was devoted to him. He kept the game ball, too.

It would seem easy for one to be a bit conceited with 5,000 cutouts of his face throughout the stands.

But that’s not Evans’ personality. And he was ready for the ribbing he took from his teammates.

“It looked pretty ugly,” said forward Carl Landry with a laugh.

via Kings Blog and Q&A: Postgame reaction: Evans doesn’t bask in attention.

Evans’ triple-double is going to get overturned most likely within the next 24 hours, which is both fair once I saw the replay, and sad, because as Ziller pointed out in a FanHouse thread, he would have snagged it most likely anyway. I mean, it is the Raps we’re talking about.

I’m still having a hard time finding any way you can argue that any other player is rookie of the year. Curry’s a nice player. He’ll be having hot offensive nights while Golden State wins 30 games a year for the next half-decade.  But Evans has a unique ability to not only generate ridiculous numbers, but to have those numbers be critical to the team. That, however, is probably a subjective assessment that would shift depending on if you’re on Team Reke or Team ThinnySkins.

I can’t help but feel the Kings are on the right path, even with as few wins as they have. There are teams whose rosters are so disparagingly flawed that even wins feel like losses. The Indiana Pacers and Philadelphia Sixers come to mind. And there are teams that can legitimately look at their roster and say they’re getting better, and that they have the pieces together to improve each year. The Kings are like that. Evans’ rookie season matters, because he’s going to matter in the NBA context over the next five years. Curry? Curry’s going to continue to barrage from the arc, and make passes in an offense-happy system, and play hard and impressively and probably not learn anything he needs to about defense. That’s not his fault, that’s just who drafted him.

But Evans’ season feels like the chapter of something important, with gravitas, while Curry’s is like a well-formed poem in a student literary magazine. There’s talent there, but it’s still going to end up in the attic.

(Now Curry will drop 50 on the Blazers tonight or something. Book it.)

If anybody should be complemented, though, it’s Hasheem Thabeet. In his second game after returning from the D-League (he DNP-CD’d in the first), Thabeet was practically the Grizzlies 6th man. He saw 26 minutes of court time and, even though his counting stats weren’t impressive, had a +25 for the game for a reason. ‘Our Favorite Mistake” was playing solid defense and offense, using his length to change shots and tip boards.

via What Fight?: Grizzlies Hammer Boston Celtics – Straight Outta Vancouver.

I don’t know what happened in Dakota, but it sure as hell worked. …]]>

If anybody should be complemented, though, it’s Hasheem Thabeet. In his second game after returning from the D-League (he DNP-CD’d in the first), Thabeet was practically the Grizzlies 6th man. He saw 26 minutes of court time and, even though his counting stats weren’t impressive, had a +25 for the game for a reason. ‘Our Favorite Mistake” was playing solid defense and offense, using his length to change shots and tip boards.

via What Fight?: Grizzlies Hammer Boston Celtics – Straight Outta Vancouver.

I don’t know what happened in Dakota, but it sure as hell worked.

Hasheem Thabeet, who I have (un)lovingly referred to on a consistent basis as “The Pogostick” was an infinitely better player last night than I’ve seen him be the entire season. And it has nothing to do with the 3-5 shooting for seven points and 6 boards.

Thabeet, for the first time I’ve seen this season, looked like he knew where he should be. His spacing was right. His hands were ready. Marc Gasol murdered the Celtics with the extra pass to Thabeet on several possessions. He was in position for rebounds.

HE CUT OFF THE BASELINE.

It’s these little things that make me jump out of my chair,  now. And seeing Thabeet smartly slide to the edge and deter the Celtics’ penetration, forcing a reset was a big moment. Because before, Thabeet was waiting to make sure he didn’t lose his man, and arriving too late ,then picking up a foul.

His weakside defense, his man-post defense, the whole shebang. The only thing he didn’t do was follow Sheed out to the arc. And I don’t care about that because Sheed’s more than welcome to bomb it away as long as the Grizzlies have a better than 1.5:1 rebound ratio advantage.

I didn’t think there was anything Thabeet could pick up in a week and a half in the D-League. But whatever it was he did while it was down there, it resulted in the best game I’ve seen from him as a professional. Unworthy of a second overall pick? Surely. But a phenomenally solid effort for a defensive cog.

I’ll begin with the assertion that not all assists are created equal, no matter what the box score tries to tell you.  The traditional box score specifies the number of shots coming from beyond the three-point line for each player but the assists column offers no such detail.  This shields the basketball world from a more complete understanding of ball distribution for each contest.  Let’s pull the veil on that part of the game.

In Tuesday night’s Utah Jazz massacre over the Chicago Bulls, Deron Williams dropped 17 dimes which is a season-high for the former Illini.  But did you know that seven of those led to treyballs?  Probably not, unless you picked up your daily advanced box score at Hoopdata.  On the same night, Raymond Felton dished out 11 assists, with 8 of them setting up for gimmes (layups and dunks).   These two point guards aided their teammates to score from high efficiency areas on the floor but this valuable information hadn’t been unlocked in the public domain. Until now, of course. …]]> I’m a big believer in striking while the iron’s hot. With Zach Harper’s breakdown of Darren Collison’s assists lighting a fire under the Hardwood audience, I thought I would take a deeper look at the assist variety.

I’ll begin with the assertion that not all assists are created equal, no matter what the box score tries to tell you.  The traditional box score specifies the number of shots coming from beyond the three-point line for each player but the assists column offers no such detail.  This shields the basketball world from a more complete understanding of ball distribution for each contest.  Let’s pull the veil on that part of the game.

In Tuesday night’s Utah Jazz massacre over the Chicago Bulls, Deron Williams dropped 17 dimes which is a season-high for the former Illini.  But did you know that seven of those led to treyballs?  Probably not, unless you picked up your daily advanced box score at Hoopdata.  On the same night, Raymond Felton dished out 11 assists, with 8 of them setting up for gimmes (layups and dunks).   These two point guards aided their teammates to score from high efficiency areas on the floor but this valuable information hadn’t been unlocked in the public domain. Until now, of course.

Depending on a combination of skill set, fellow personnel, and X-and-O’s, every point guard varies on how they compile their assists.  Some earn their dimes through dribble penetration and dishing to a cutter to the basket after the defense collapses.  This type of distributor tends to yield a high percentage of at rim buckets for his team.  Others make a living instead by patiently waiting for the perfect moment to hit their sharpshooting teammates on the perimeter rather than exploiting the porous help defense on dribble drives.  These types tend to tally a slew of assists leading to long twos and three-pointers.

So, who are these guys?  Let’s compare two of the best assistants out there, LeBron James and Jason Kidd.  One is a 6-8 dominant scorer and the other is a 36-year old Hall of Fame distributor.  Both average over 8 assists per game.  The pie charts display the shot location share of their assists in terms of the five zones: at rim, short (<10 feet), mid (10-15 feet), long (16-23 feet), and threes.

As you can see, these two ball-handlers get their high assist totals in much different ways.  Over 75 percent of LeBron James’ assists yield a three pointer or a bucket at the rim, highlighting just how devastating LeBron James can be as a ball-hander.  If he’s not scoring himself, he commands the help defense and double-teams, opening up the high efficiency areas for his teammates.  Actually, 3.9 at rim assists per game understates how many buckets he yields at the rim.  In his last ten games, the Chosen One has dished out 5.7 assists per game at the basket, nevermind every other area on the floor.  Consider for a moment that Kevin Durant, Carmelo Anthony, Kobe Bryant, and Dirk Nowitzki each average fewer than 5.7 total assists per game. And LeBron leads the League in scoring.

Conversely, fellow All-Star Jason Kidd splits his assists between the mid-range and the high efficiency areas, which says as much about him as a distributor as who receives the delivery.   Dirk Nowitzki, the most frequent shooter on the Mavs, lives in the mid-range and chucks up a league leading 8.5 attempts per game from 16-23 feet.

Moving along, when we look at assist numbers, it might be worth it to break down each assist according to their expected point value.  The numbers tell us that at rim shots and 3-point shots have a higher expected value than mid-range jumpers which only go down 39.5 percent of the time and only have a 2-point payoff but each assist is treated as equal to one.   To account for this value distribution, I created a simple metric that assigns  a weight to each assist zone, giving point guards who distribute the ball to high efficiency areas a boost in the bottom line.

The weighting doesn’t arbitrarily assign point values that I plucked out of thin air.  Rather, I found it appropriate to weight the assists according to the expected pay off of the shot location.  The average non-fouled shot at the rim converts at a 60.8% percent rate so the expected payoff, fouls aside, is the product of probability and point value or  .608 * 2 = 1.216.   Shots taken from 10-15 feet have the lowest conversion rate (.396 field goal percentage) and thus, the expected value from this area amounts to just .792.  Threes have a higher expected value than the mid-range because of the added point bonus.

Taking LeBron James as an example, his weighted assists per game (wAPG) would be calculated as:

wAPGLeBron = (At rim APG * 1.216) + (Short APG * 0.880) +

           (Mid APG * 0.792) + (Long APG * 0.794) +

           (Threes APG * 1.062)

wAPGLeBron = (4.8*1.216) + (0.5*0.880) + (0.2*0.792) + (0.8*0.794) + 
            (2.8 *1.062)

wAPGLeBron = 9.1

Without accounting for the types of assists, LeBron has a 8.5 assists per game so the net difference is only 0.6 assists per game.  As is, at rim shots have about a 50% premium on the mid-range shots inside the three-point line.  Admittedly, the model would be improved if we accounted for shots that led to free throws but my powers are limited at this point in time.  If that were the case, distributors like LeBron would see even more of a boost since most fouls occur around the basket.

This adjustment derives its theoretical foundation from Dean Oliver’s “Basketball on Paper”, where he argues that assists to the perimeter should be discounted relative to shots at the basket because the outside shooter holds the most responsibility for nailing the shot.  The passer only changes that likelihood slightly.   However, since defenses rarely opt to allow big men to get open around the basket, the point guard receives more credit for creating that opportunity.  Put another way, do you think Chris Paul should receive the same credit for his patented alley-oop floater pass as he does for a routine pass to Peja Stojakovic who hits a fallaway mid-range jumper?  This model doesn’t think so either.

Who isn’t excited about this adjustment? As you might of guessed, Jason Kidd loses some of his point guard moxie with the tweak.  While most point guards see a higher wAPG, Jason Kidd, Derrick Rose, and Jerryd Bayless each have a lower wAPG than raw APG.   Here are the leaders and trailers as measured by percentage difference, among those who average 4 ast per 40 minutes.

If you’d like to see the full spreadsheet, I’ve uploaded here on Google Docs.

Cheers.